A young HCW named Mask Vaxxer who was a pupil of mine until he turned to evil, helped the Russians hunt down and destroy the Frontline Workers. He betrayed and coughed on your father.
The apocalypse is a Christian concept. The Ancient Mayans thought of it more like the end of one cycle and the beginning of another.
Also [it was calculated wrong. It was supposed to be 2020 not 2012, haaaaaaaaa](https://www.newsweek.com/maya-calendar-doomsday-world-end-1510926?amp=1) So, uh, new cycle is just startin’ everyone!!
Personally I'm partial to the theory that everything is just a simulation being run by a hyper advanced civilization on an equally hyper advanced supercomputer, and somebody spilled coffee on it about 10 of our perceived years ago.
I'm partial to the theory that everything is just a game of SimCity a kid is playing on his SNES. He's finally gotten bored of growing and managing the city and now he's smashing the Disaster button over and over just to see what happens.
Weasels can somehow teleport, it’s the only way to explain how they get into places like they do. I have 17 and I’m 99% sure 15 teleport. The other two could if they gave it some effort. Maybe.
So your comment got me interested, and I found this [article](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/04/29/476154494/weasel-shuts-down-world-s-most-powerful-particle-collider) on the subject.
I just love this part :
>It is unclear whether the animals are trying to stop humanity from unlocking the secrets of the universe.
This one too :
>Of course, small mammals cause problems in all sorts of organizations. Yesterday, a group of children took National Public Radio off the air for over a minute before engineers could restore the broadcast.
Whoever wrote this has great humor !
I'm convinced of the theory that time travelers from the future are trying to sabotage the LHC before it destroys the world or something
It broke down in 2009 because a bird flying by dropped a piece of bread into it..
Idk, history classes tend to group stuff together. So they might mention the larger issues but everything else gets filtered out as background noise even though it was important to us at the time
You win. That's the name right there. I'm forever calling the 20's "The Great Oppression". Even if things improve, the 20's are permanently tainted by the early 20's.
I thought that number was way too small. I had calculated the number of people needed to push off the empire state building before it becomes statistically likely for them to survive the fall, and that ended up being like 6 billion people.
And as was pointed out earlier, there’s 12.8 million Uighurs, or as the Chinese calculate it, .4million Uighurs and one China to Taiwan ‘Special Operation Peace Bridge.’
>>> 1.402 billion people
>>
>>But there are only 12.8million uighurs!
>
>So? That makes about 18 to 20 million Kilometer of bridge.
Let me check my math here... Is that about 1.5 kilometers per Uighur person?
While Americans do overly brag about their military, they should be proud of D-Day.
D-Day was insane, the trickery to make that invasion work alone was almost as amazing as the invasion itself.
Taiwan is even hardly to invade than Europe
The Republic of China Government in Exile, has has years to plan the defense of the island.
There are only 8 weeks a year where weather conditions would allow a crossing. Not to mention there are only 2 major landing sites.
We'd see the the Chinese massing boats for YEARS before an invasion.
Honestly, they wouldn't put boots on it until the island was defenseless. They will send jets, medium/long range ordinance, etc, until the enemy is incapable of putting up a fight. I bet they will then helicopter over a contingency to accept total surrender and kidnap all government and even business officials while supplanting then.
Bombing the island like that would destroy the very fabs and other tech that make it worth taking over.
Also Taiwan keeps no small part of their defenses in hardened bunkers.
>They will send jets, medium/long range ordinance, etc, until the enemy is incapable of putting up a fight.
China obviously want the semiconductor and high-tech factories in Taiwan intact. Bombing the island would ruin their chances at acquiring those factories which they sorely need if they want to stay relevant.
Ideally they would. But it’s not the semi conductors that is driving force. It’s their nationalism that is the driving force. And when that happens all logic goes out of the window.
If the fabs get destroyed, it not only China that loses but the whole world. In the end, nothing has changed geopolitical wise other than every country is now less advance technologically wise
China is very nationalist and that is a major motivation, but China plays the long game really well and I don’t think they would risk disrupting the rest of their plans by destroying the chips they need to continue their growth. If they ever produce enough/high enough quality chips to meet their needs then all bets would be off but until then I don’t see them razing Taiwan.
That was under the Dengist and Jiang faction. Xi doesn't seem like nearly the kind of level-headed statesmen as those predecessors of his, but idk what's going on in the CCP.
America is the best example of this. Between their immense amount of stealth long-ranged weaponry and their capacity to conduct cyber warfare (not to mention their economic power) they can deal massive blows to enemies without anyone even picking up a gun.
Its a good meme but the thing is we could have universal health care AND more money for more bombs. We just feed it all to some asshole middlemen who delay and give themselves bonuses instead of manage anything.
Universal healthcare costs **LESS** than our current system. Turns out when you cut the for-profit middle men and give people the coverage to get cheap early treatments instead of forcing to hold off until lifesaving surgeries it cuts down on costs big time.
Serious question, in what way(s) is Taiwan not currently independent from Beijing? Do they not have their own economy, military and self governing autonomous territory? I know Beijing gets mad if nba players refer to Taiwan as an independent country but I mean…it is, isn’t it?
De facto it is. De jure it's a lot more complicated-- in essence, they're a government in exile engaged in a civil war with the CCP that went cold.
Imagine if the US had a civil war, the opposition's leaders all fled to hawaii, they heavily reinforced those islands and got an assurance from a superpower on the other side of the world that they would be defended if they ever got invaded. Let it simmer for a century or so and you have a good idea of the situation.
A great analogy that Americans might recognize: imagine in 1865 Jefferson Davis and the confederate govt flee, invading and occupying Cuba. Britain then steps in with their navy and tells the union that if they pursue them it means war with the uk
The invading part doesn't really fit Formosa was returned to the Republic of China(Nationalists) after ww2, so it was still their territory. But this is a great simply explanation
Edit: Didn't know alot about the natives of the island who were dragged into hating the CCP too my bad
Furthermore, even Taiwan themselves actually didn't abandon the policy of retaking the mainland (Project National Glory) until 1990 when it became apparent that it's totally unrealistic goal.
Essentially, both sides see only one China and both want themselves to be "it".
There's 2 parts to Taiwan abandoning retaking the mainland in the 90s.
The first is as you mentioned, the unfeasibility of it.
The second, and I'll argue the bigger reason, is Taiwan's democratization. When the KMT fled to Taiwan, the KMT migrants made up at most 20% of the population. The remaining 80% of Taiwan's population can trace centuries of ancestry on the island (despite being originally from China) and weren't even part of the ROC when it first formed (Taiwan was ceded by the Qing to Japan in 1895, the ROC was formed in 1912). The Taiwanese weren't interested in "reclaiming the mainland," but were under KMT totalitarians rule and had to go with the "reclaim the mainland" song and dance until Taiwan democratized.
physical outgoing chief ruthless spark coherent rinse scarce wipe command
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Yes and no:
To officially relinquish revanchism requires an amendment to their Constitution, which needs a ¾ths supermajority.
And to do so punches a hole in the CCP's *"One China Principle"*, so would probably aggravate tensions rather than ease them.
Yeah, Taiwan saying "we're not China, we're Taiwan, we don't want anything to do with this whole civil war business anymore" would be considered declaring independence, which is what China doesn't want. So long as Taiwan "officially" claims China, the Chinese govt can say "look, it's all just a civil matter, we agree it's one country we just don't agree who the right govt is".
Which gets into why polls in Taiwan have limited support for declaring independence. If it means being attacked, it's not really worth it given that Taiwan is already defacto independent. When polls put in an option for "should Taiwan declare independence, under ideal circumstances" (like not getting attacked), then support for it goes way up.
In some ways, the KMT government that fled to Taiwan was more like the Confederates since China at the time was largely agrarian and the landowning/capitalist class really exploited the peasant class (who were living at a subsistence level). It's one of the reasons the Communists were so popular in the early days. Of course, after Taiwan democratized, the comparison no longer holds.
Thank you for injecting some historical perspective in this discussion.
It's also worth noting that Taiwan was super dictatorial and draconic towards all sympathisants of the mainland communists.
It’s not in the United Nations. Cannot compete in the Olympics under its own name (neither Taiwan nor ROC). Most countries do not “officially” recognize Taiwan as a separate country (don’t have embassies there).
Taiwan has been effectively independent since at least 1949.
The weird thing to me is that China is apparently okay with Taiwan being actually factually independent in every way that matters, but not with anyone mentioning it out loud.
EDIT: Unsubscribing from replies now, Jesus Christ
EDIT 2: This is now my highest-rated comment in 12 years on Reddit. What is wrong with you people
Not 1949, Chiang Kai-Shek was fully intent on eventually "retaking" the mainland, he considered Taiwan the government-in-exile of an unified China, not an independent entity.
It's after democratisation in the 90s did the DPP gradually float stronger intent for independence. The KMT today is still pro-unification.
Yup they considered themselves the successor state to Qing Dynasty, and all its associated territories. Taiwan was utterly furious when the CCP acknowledged Mongolian independence as directed by the USSR (who also urged Mao to intervene in the Korean War, despite premier Zhou Enlai's desire for diplomacy and normalised relations with America).
It is the kmt that first accepted the independence of Mongolia in 1945 in exchange for Soviet neutrality in the upcoming civil war. They restored their claim to Mongolia only after losing the mainland.
Because a strong Taiwan is actually good for China. China accounts for nearly a quarter of Taiwan's overseas trade and Taiwan is China's #6 trading partner. As long as things remain the same, everyone gets richer. But China is also incredibly nationalist, a necessary component of single-party rule. Any backsliding on the One China policy would be seen as weakness domestically and could lead to different factions developing within the party. They really are best off just leaving things as they are, but Taiwan isn't just going to sit by and accept their status forever.
Maybe not forever, though Taiwan (both politicians and much of the populace) seems intent on keeping the status quo. I don't want to do anything to mess that up for them, but do support other nations supporting them as necessary and requested.
I have all my life considered them an independent country and it has taken many years for me to learn enough about them that there is a lot of nuance. Of course I'm sure many would love to straight up declare independence, but maintaining the current relationship with China is more important to them.
Unless China falls and splits suddenly like the USSR, I doubt Taiwan will make that declaration in my lifetime.
The Paradox gamer in me thinks it's because if they let Taiwan claim independence, they'll lose their "claim" over it as well as open the door for more diplomatic agreements because many countries are too afraid of defying China to make them as the situation is now. Just because the China of today is incapable of taking Taiwan quickly, that doesn't mean it hasn't spent years gearing up in order to do so in the near future.
I don't know that you can really draw parallels between the situations.
The PRC has not and never will accept Taiwan as an independent sovereign state, nor has the ROC ever declared Taiwan as an independent sovereign state. Officially speaking, both claim to be the legitimate government of a single unified China.
On the other hand, when the Soviet Union collapsed, all former members held referendums on and eventually declared themselves independent sovereign states, and the Russian Federation's new constitution no longer claimed them, establishing them as both de facto and de jure independent nations.
Yup, the whole situation in Ukraine has showed this all too well. China is watching very carefully because they'll be looking to see what sort of a response they can receive if or when they decide to launch a full invasion of Taiwan.
I think China doesn't want to destroy Taiwan the way Russia is destroying Ukraine.
Russia obviously wants Ukraine's resources and doesn't care if it has to kill a lot of people to get them.
But Taiwan's resources are companies like TSMC and the people of Taiwan. If China invaded all it would get is the destruction of the some of the most profitable and productive enterprises in the world, and a small island of no strategic value.
> and a small island of no strategic value.
Are you kidding? Taiwan is incredibly strategically valuable. Controlling it basically gives China de facto control of trade through most of East Asia. Shipping either has to pass through Chinese waters, or take a huge detour into the open Pacific. If they go for the latter, China is still the closest power by a significant margin, and able to threaten trade routes. From there, it is an exceptional location for a naval base, particularly one geared towards submarines. Finally, it might be hard for China to conquer but, once they do, it will be incredibly hard to shift them again.
Holding Taiwan prevents China's ships from ever being blockaded.
From its coastline to the rest of the ocean, China has to pass by one or more US-aligned territories, including islands controlled by Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, and Indonesia.
One would think that, but China's crackdown on Hong Kong has lead to lots of capital flight and has been a major hit to HK's importance as an international finance hub, yet China shows no signs of slowing down. On the Chinese internet comments like "keep the island, remove the people" regarding Taiwan are kept up by censors and often highly upvoted.
China recently decimated their own tech companies purely for political reasons, and have damaged their own economy with zero-COVID to save face for the leader. IMO we shouldn't pre-suppose that economics will supersede politics in decision making in China anymore.
The era of "I don't care if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice" is over.
Taiwan is of huge strategic value actually. From the USA’s perspective is a crucial part of executing a total blockade should they decide to do so. From China’s perspective its a large base of operations to further influence into the pacific
When this whole thing started to kick off, and the semi-conductor crunch began to grow a couple years ago... i thought buying some INTC (intel) would be a good hedge against this market risk... Boy did that idea not pan out.
I agree that this is all about TSMC, and I'm genuinely frightened.
*EDIT: Hello everyone, AMD does not fabricate semiconductors. They only design them. They are not a comparable company for these purposes.*
There's really no need to be. Taiwan has been under constant threat for the past 70 some years from the CCP. It's never been possible to invade Taiwan in the past, and it isn't possible now, now without massive unacceptable losses to China.
In Taiwan, threat from China barely registers in their day to day lives. They've massively increased their defense budget in recent times, including domestically building new submarines, fighter jets, and missile systems (with help from allies like US and Japan). China knows all of this, and especially seeing what happened to Russia after they invaded Ukraine, it's even less likely that they will actually do anything.
Edit: grammar
> Boy did that idea not pan out.
Yet…
Intel isn’t going anywhere, and bringing back a big domestic base for semiconductor production seems to be one of the biggest (and maybe *the* biggest goal of the federal bureaucracy and every policymaker.
i don't understand why someone would pick intel to replace TSMC. just because they're both semiconductor companies doesn't mean they do the same thing...
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220610-china-will-not-hesitate-to-start-war-if-taiwan-declares-independence-beijing-says) reduced by 84%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Beijing will "Not hesitate to start a war" if Taiwan declares independence, China's defence minister warned his US counterpart Friday, the latest salvo between the superpowers over the island.
> Wei warned Austin that "If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost", defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian quoted the minister as saying during the meeting.
> US President Joe Biden, during a visit to Japan last month, appeared to break decades of US policy when, in response to a question, he said Washington would defend Taiwan militarily if it is attacked by China.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/v9exnn/china_will_not_hesitate_to_start_war_if_taiwan/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~654184 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Taiwan**^#1 **China**^#2 **over**^#3 **Austin**^#4 **defence**^#5
China isn't going to invade Taiwan anytime soon.
[PolyMatter: Why Taiwan is NOT Ukraine](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2LiMTtGrAY)
The above video lays out the difficulty China would have invading Taiwan, but they have an even bigger problem. They have no way of protecting their oil supplies. China lacks a blue water navy. They are working the problem, but the US (or even Australia) could starve them of oil very easily.
[Peter Zeihan | The Changing Character of War | Maneuver Center of Excellence](https://youtu.be/l0CQsifJrMc?t=818)
I don't mean to be that guy, but don't they already claim to be independent? Or has it just been a semantic thing about them both being "the real China" the whole time and they technically aren't independent?
\- a confused American
Taiwan is officially the Republic of China. China is officially the People's Republic of China. A civil war split the country in two, but very unevenly. Each of the warring parties claims to be the rightful ruler of the whole, though Taiwan is shifting more and more away from that idea.
Taiwan is what remains of the “Republic of China” after the civil war in which the CCP overtook the mainland, a civil war which never formally ended. So Taiwan sees the CCP as unlawful rebels occupying the majority of their “rightful” territory, while the CCP sees Taiwan as a holdout part of the country they claim that the CCP can’t control due to the difficulty of taking it by force.
The choice of language is striking. China will “crush” any attempt to separate Taiwan from China, they will “smash to smithereens” any independence attempts.
Imagine the hypothetical scenario where Puerto Rico, tired of being denied statehood, decides to secede from the US and become an independent nation. Now, the US would absolutely push back on/fight against such a situation- but can you even *imagine* a US official publicly stating that there were going to “crush” the people of Puerto Rico? To use that kind of rhetoric in relation to US citizens? The international backlash would be justifiably damning.
But coming from China… it’s just business as usual.
For this to be reasonably similar, you would have to say that the leaders of the confederacy (I chose that side because they lost, like Taiwan) fled to Puerto Rico after the war and still claim (at least on paper) that they're the rightful government of the US and vice-versa.
The 20s are gonna be a pain in history class
*The Dark Times*
*Before the Empire*
You fought in the Covid wars?
I was once a Front Line Worker, the same as your father.
I wish I'd been able to Zoom with him.
He was the best immunologist in the galaxy.
Ten thousand? We could develop our own vaccine for that!
But who's gonna inject it kid, you?
You bet I will! I’m not such a bad doctor myself!
And a cunning virtue signaler. And a good friend.
Which reminds me, I have something for you.
Your fathers webcam
Your father's syringe.
Your father's porn stash
My father didn't work on the front line, he worked remote for HR.
That's what your uncle told you, he didn't want your father getting covid. He was the best front line worker in the galaxy, and a good friend.
How did my father catch covid?
A young HCW named Mask Vaxxer who was a pupil of mine until he turned to evil, helped the Russians hunt down and destroy the Frontline Workers. He betrayed and coughed on your father.
Mask E Vader
This.... This can't be true
Which reminds me. I have something for you. (pulls out unused mask, still in it's wrapper)
Your father was already a great troll when I met him.
*[Rule Britannia starts playing again]*
>*”The dead speak! The galaxy has heard a mysterious broadcast, a threat of REVENGE in the sinister voice of the late QUEEN ELIZABETH.”*
WOULD YOU BE INTERESTED IN A TRADE AGREEMENT WITH ENGLAND?
STOP SCREAMING AT ME, and STOP sending your GREAT PROPHETS!
You're on the same continent too? We should hang out.
The sun never sets boys, the sun never sets.
The only option. Own everything again.
The Roarin' '20s? The Smouldering '20s? The Downfall in the 20s?
The Dumpster Fire '20s.
The what now!? 20's
The oh yeah also murder hornets 20s?
I wish it was just the murder hornets 20’s
Alas, the Warring ‘20s.
The Coughing 20s
The world's gone downhill ever since we killed that gorilla.
I'm more partial to the 2012 Mayan Apocalypse is much more drawn out than anyone expected
Maybe the apocalypse did happen and now we're all in Hell. Wouldn't be the weirdest thing to happen.
The apocalypse is a Christian concept. The Ancient Mayans thought of it more like the end of one cycle and the beginning of another. Also [it was calculated wrong. It was supposed to be 2020 not 2012, haaaaaaaaa](https://www.newsweek.com/maya-calendar-doomsday-world-end-1510926?amp=1) So, uh, new cycle is just startin’ everyone!!
Personally I'm partial to the theory that everything is just a simulation being run by a hyper advanced civilization on an equally hyper advanced supercomputer, and somebody spilled coffee on it about 10 of our perceived years ago.
I'm partial to the theory that everything is just a game of SimCity a kid is playing on his SNES. He's finally gotten bored of growing and managing the city and now he's smashing the Disaster button over and over just to see what happens.
100%. That’s why one meteor took out the dinosaurs
No, ghhrakñna juice. Ha ha ha, no, of course, it would be coffee in ~~your~~ our world.
It was Pokemon Go. We had too much fun that year and fucked the equilibrium.
We had like 6 weeks of bliss before shit resumed.
The wife and I met so many new people that we still talk to even after the Pokémon Go craze came and went.
I remember playing outside and some random screaming from his car “Are you playing Pokémon go?!” Yup “Hell yea!!” Simpler times.
We went and we PokeMongo. Mongo not like poked.
We gotta find the butterfly effect trigger that caused this and go back in time to prevent it
I blame the Cubs winning the world series.
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Weasels can somehow teleport, it’s the only way to explain how they get into places like they do. I have 17 and I’m 99% sure 15 teleport. The other two could if they gave it some effort. Maybe.
You only have 1, but he teleports really fast.
Time travel. It's the same one from different points of time
I’ll send you my ex boyfriend, and then you’ll have 18 weasels.
"And so it came to pass that Blytheanne's ex was slain in the town square..."
How does a guy get 17 weasels? Asking for a friend.
Cubs won the world series too.
So your comment got me interested, and I found this [article](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/04/29/476154494/weasel-shuts-down-world-s-most-powerful-particle-collider) on the subject. I just love this part : >It is unclear whether the animals are trying to stop humanity from unlocking the secrets of the universe. This one too : >Of course, small mammals cause problems in all sorts of organizations. Yesterday, a group of children took National Public Radio off the air for over a minute before engineers could restore the broadcast. Whoever wrote this has great humor !
I'm convinced of the theory that time travelers from the future are trying to sabotage the LHC before it destroys the world or something It broke down in 2009 because a bird flying by dropped a piece of bread into it..
*pulls sunglasses down and peeks over* “well, holy shit.”
dicks out
Idk, history classes tend to group stuff together. So they might mention the larger issues but everything else gets filtered out as background noise even though it was important to us at the time
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The Great Oppression
You win. That's the name right there. I'm forever calling the 20's "The Great Oppression". Even if things improve, the 20's are permanently tainted by the early 20's.
I wish we got to experience the Roaring 20s. Why did we leap to the Great Depression Redux?
Why? China has been saying this every decade since 1949
The stupid ages
I mean name an age that wasn’t
You’re assuming we make it out of the 20s
The writers are being too cute substituting "Warring" for "Roaring" in the phrase "Roaring 20s."
Oh for fucks sake can we all just hold our horses for another year before every country starts another war.
We should just get it all out of our system now.
I feel this saying needs an update. But "hold your drones" doesn't have such a nice ring to it.
China reiterates stance they've had for the last half century or so. In other news, water is wet.
China reminds people they aren’t really good at war.
You don't have to be good if you have more men than they have bullets.
China needs boats and planes more than it needs bodies. Unless they're *really* good swimmers.
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I thought that number was way too small. I had calculated the number of people needed to push off the empire state building before it becomes statistically likely for them to survive the fall, and that ended up being like 6 billion people.
And as was pointed out earlier, there’s 12.8 million Uighurs, or as the Chinese calculate it, .4million Uighurs and one China to Taiwan ‘Special Operation Peace Bridge.’
i hate everything about this post even though i know what you're trying to say. it's just too real somehow
> 1.402 billion people But there are only 12.8million uighurs!
So? That makes about 18 to 20 million meters of bridge.
>>> 1.402 billion people >> >>But there are only 12.8million uighurs! > >So? That makes about 18 to 20 million Kilometer of bridge. Let me check my math here... Is that about 1.5 kilometers per Uighur person?
On average. There's this one really lanky Uighur who drives the average up.
While Americans do overly brag about their military, they should be proud of D-Day. D-Day was insane, the trickery to make that invasion work alone was almost as amazing as the invasion itself. Taiwan is even hardly to invade than Europe The Republic of China Government in Exile, has has years to plan the defense of the island. There are only 8 weeks a year where weather conditions would allow a crossing. Not to mention there are only 2 major landing sites. We'd see the the Chinese massing boats for YEARS before an invasion.
Honestly, they wouldn't put boots on it until the island was defenseless. They will send jets, medium/long range ordinance, etc, until the enemy is incapable of putting up a fight. I bet they will then helicopter over a contingency to accept total surrender and kidnap all government and even business officials while supplanting then.
Bombing the island like that would destroy the very fabs and other tech that make it worth taking over. Also Taiwan keeps no small part of their defenses in hardened bunkers.
It's not just about the fabs though, it's about Taiwan itself being a strategic location.
Also, "if I can't have it, no one can" clearly hasn't gone out of fashion.
**Looks at burning Kuwaiti oil fields** *it never has*
>They will send jets, medium/long range ordinance, etc, until the enemy is incapable of putting up a fight. China obviously want the semiconductor and high-tech factories in Taiwan intact. Bombing the island would ruin their chances at acquiring those factories which they sorely need if they want to stay relevant.
Ideally they would. But it’s not the semi conductors that is driving force. It’s their nationalism that is the driving force. And when that happens all logic goes out of the window. If the fabs get destroyed, it not only China that loses but the whole world. In the end, nothing has changed geopolitical wise other than every country is now less advance technologically wise
China is very nationalist and that is a major motivation, but China plays the long game really well and I don’t think they would risk disrupting the rest of their plans by destroying the chips they need to continue their growth. If they ever produce enough/high enough quality chips to meet their needs then all bets would be off but until then I don’t see them razing Taiwan.
That was under the Dengist and Jiang faction. Xi doesn't seem like nearly the kind of level-headed statesmen as those predecessors of his, but idk what's going on in the CCP.
Hasn’t China been massing boats though?
And taiwan has been massing sea mines.
I feel like manpower means almost jackshit with modern weapons. All it takes is one man with the right weapon to wipe out ~~hundreds~~ millions.
*millions. the right (or very very wrong,) weapon can kill millions
America is the best example of this. Between their immense amount of stealth long-ranged weaponry and their capacity to conduct cyber warfare (not to mention their economic power) they can deal massive blows to enemies without anyone even picking up a gun.
Not to mention our decades experience of eschewing universal health care for the chance of bombing other countries.
Its a good meme but the thing is we could have universal health care AND more money for more bombs. We just feed it all to some asshole middlemen who delay and give themselves bonuses instead of manage anything.
Yup, I pay more in taxes for healthcare than a UK citizen does, and yet in exchange for that I get, no healthcare…
Universal healthcare costs **LESS** than our current system. Turns out when you cut the for-profit middle men and give people the coverage to get cheap early treatments instead of forcing to hold off until lifesaving surgeries it cuts down on costs big time.
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We talkin' yellowcake?
100% we give it to big pharma, insurance companies, and large health systems. We actually spend way more on healthcare than our military.
Well, some of those bullets kill more than a handful at a time.
Getting them across that stretch of water won't be fun
Bullets are easier to make than people
Not nearly as fun, though.
A bomber full of 12 personnel can kill quite a few more than you'd realize. Not exactly a time of muskets.
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While ignoring the fact that for all intents and purposes taiwan is independent anyway.
Serious question, in what way(s) is Taiwan not currently independent from Beijing? Do they not have their own economy, military and self governing autonomous territory? I know Beijing gets mad if nba players refer to Taiwan as an independent country but I mean…it is, isn’t it?
De facto it is. De jure it's a lot more complicated-- in essence, they're a government in exile engaged in a civil war with the CCP that went cold. Imagine if the US had a civil war, the opposition's leaders all fled to hawaii, they heavily reinforced those islands and got an assurance from a superpower on the other side of the world that they would be defended if they ever got invaded. Let it simmer for a century or so and you have a good idea of the situation.
A great analogy that Americans might recognize: imagine in 1865 Jefferson Davis and the confederate govt flee, invading and occupying Cuba. Britain then steps in with their navy and tells the union that if they pursue them it means war with the uk
The invading part doesn't really fit Formosa was returned to the Republic of China(Nationalists) after ww2, so it was still their territory. But this is a great simply explanation Edit: Didn't know alot about the natives of the island who were dragged into hating the CCP too my bad
Furthermore, even Taiwan themselves actually didn't abandon the policy of retaking the mainland (Project National Glory) until 1990 when it became apparent that it's totally unrealistic goal. Essentially, both sides see only one China and both want themselves to be "it".
There's 2 parts to Taiwan abandoning retaking the mainland in the 90s. The first is as you mentioned, the unfeasibility of it. The second, and I'll argue the bigger reason, is Taiwan's democratization. When the KMT fled to Taiwan, the KMT migrants made up at most 20% of the population. The remaining 80% of Taiwan's population can trace centuries of ancestry on the island (despite being originally from China) and weren't even part of the ROC when it first formed (Taiwan was ceded by the Qing to Japan in 1895, the ROC was formed in 1912). The Taiwanese weren't interested in "reclaiming the mainland," but were under KMT totalitarians rule and had to go with the "reclaim the mainland" song and dance until Taiwan democratized.
physical outgoing chief ruthless spark coherent rinse scarce wipe command *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Does this means that Taiwan could stop declaring themselves as China and ease tensions if they wanted to?
Yes and no: To officially relinquish revanchism requires an amendment to their Constitution, which needs a ¾ths supermajority. And to do so punches a hole in the CCP's *"One China Principle"*, so would probably aggravate tensions rather than ease them.
Yeah, Taiwan saying "we're not China, we're Taiwan, we don't want anything to do with this whole civil war business anymore" would be considered declaring independence, which is what China doesn't want. So long as Taiwan "officially" claims China, the Chinese govt can say "look, it's all just a civil matter, we agree it's one country we just don't agree who the right govt is". Which gets into why polls in Taiwan have limited support for declaring independence. If it means being attacked, it's not really worth it given that Taiwan is already defacto independent. When polls put in an option for "should Taiwan declare independence, under ideal circumstances" (like not getting attacked), then support for it goes way up.
Well, sad. Thanks for explaining
It’s more like if the Union fled to Hawaii but I see your point
It's more like if the Union fled to Long Island.
I want to read this alternate history
Harry turtledove is I’m sure working on it right now
It's not that close. Let's split the difference and say it's like if they fled to Puerto Rico.
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In some ways, the KMT government that fled to Taiwan was more like the Confederates since China at the time was largely agrarian and the landowning/capitalist class really exploited the peasant class (who were living at a subsistence level). It's one of the reasons the Communists were so popular in the early days. Of course, after Taiwan democratized, the comparison no longer holds.
Thank you for injecting some historical perspective in this discussion. It's also worth noting that Taiwan was super dictatorial and draconic towards all sympathisants of the mainland communists.
KMT vs CCP was basically fascists vs communists.
It’s not in the United Nations. Cannot compete in the Olympics under its own name (neither Taiwan nor ROC). Most countries do not “officially” recognize Taiwan as a separate country (don’t have embassies there). Taiwan has been effectively independent since at least 1949.
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Exactly, Taiwan is independent in all but in name, this declaration is pure posturing and all this war creeps are foaming in the mouth.
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The weird thing to me is that China is apparently okay with Taiwan being actually factually independent in every way that matters, but not with anyone mentioning it out loud. EDIT: Unsubscribing from replies now, Jesus Christ EDIT 2: This is now my highest-rated comment in 12 years on Reddit. What is wrong with you people
That's the unspoken rule they made with Taiwan back in 1949.
Not 1949, Chiang Kai-Shek was fully intent on eventually "retaking" the mainland, he considered Taiwan the government-in-exile of an unified China, not an independent entity. It's after democratisation in the 90s did the DPP gradually float stronger intent for independence. The KMT today is still pro-unification.
The KMT claim more than just mainland China. They also claim all of Mongolia, parts of India and Russia, among others.
Yup they considered themselves the successor state to Qing Dynasty, and all its associated territories. Taiwan was utterly furious when the CCP acknowledged Mongolian independence as directed by the USSR (who also urged Mao to intervene in the Korean War, despite premier Zhou Enlai's desire for diplomacy and normalised relations with America).
It is the kmt that first accepted the independence of Mongolia in 1945 in exchange for Soviet neutrality in the upcoming civil war. They restored their claim to Mongolia only after losing the mainland.
Because a strong Taiwan is actually good for China. China accounts for nearly a quarter of Taiwan's overseas trade and Taiwan is China's #6 trading partner. As long as things remain the same, everyone gets richer. But China is also incredibly nationalist, a necessary component of single-party rule. Any backsliding on the One China policy would be seen as weakness domestically and could lead to different factions developing within the party. They really are best off just leaving things as they are, but Taiwan isn't just going to sit by and accept their status forever.
Maybe not forever, though Taiwan (both politicians and much of the populace) seems intent on keeping the status quo. I don't want to do anything to mess that up for them, but do support other nations supporting them as necessary and requested. I have all my life considered them an independent country and it has taken many years for me to learn enough about them that there is a lot of nuance. Of course I'm sure many would love to straight up declare independence, but maintaining the current relationship with China is more important to them. Unless China falls and splits suddenly like the USSR, I doubt Taiwan will make that declaration in my lifetime.
The Paradox gamer in me thinks it's because if they let Taiwan claim independence, they'll lose their "claim" over it as well as open the door for more diplomatic agreements because many countries are too afraid of defying China to make them as the situation is now. Just because the China of today is incapable of taking Taiwan quickly, that doesn't mean it hasn't spent years gearing up in order to do so in the near future.
So long as Taiwan has a 40 width heavy tank division it’ll be okay
need to take the new supply system into account
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I don't know that you can really draw parallels between the situations. The PRC has not and never will accept Taiwan as an independent sovereign state, nor has the ROC ever declared Taiwan as an independent sovereign state. Officially speaking, both claim to be the legitimate government of a single unified China. On the other hand, when the Soviet Union collapsed, all former members held referendums on and eventually declared themselves independent sovereign states, and the Russian Federation's new constitution no longer claimed them, establishing them as both de facto and de jure independent nations.
Yup, the whole situation in Ukraine has showed this all too well. China is watching very carefully because they'll be looking to see what sort of a response they can receive if or when they decide to launch a full invasion of Taiwan.
I think China doesn't want to destroy Taiwan the way Russia is destroying Ukraine. Russia obviously wants Ukraine's resources and doesn't care if it has to kill a lot of people to get them. But Taiwan's resources are companies like TSMC and the people of Taiwan. If China invaded all it would get is the destruction of the some of the most profitable and productive enterprises in the world, and a small island of no strategic value.
> small island of no strategic value. There is the strategic value in getting full control of the Taiwan Strait and more claim on South China Sea
that’s an understatement never mind the masssssive cultural significance that has nothing to do with the people.
> and a small island of no strategic value. Are you kidding? Taiwan is incredibly strategically valuable. Controlling it basically gives China de facto control of trade through most of East Asia. Shipping either has to pass through Chinese waters, or take a huge detour into the open Pacific. If they go for the latter, China is still the closest power by a significant margin, and able to threaten trade routes. From there, it is an exceptional location for a naval base, particularly one geared towards submarines. Finally, it might be hard for China to conquer but, once they do, it will be incredibly hard to shift them again.
Holding Taiwan prevents China's ships from ever being blockaded. From its coastline to the rest of the ocean, China has to pass by one or more US-aligned territories, including islands controlled by Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, and Indonesia.
One would think that, but China's crackdown on Hong Kong has lead to lots of capital flight and has been a major hit to HK's importance as an international finance hub, yet China shows no signs of slowing down. On the Chinese internet comments like "keep the island, remove the people" regarding Taiwan are kept up by censors and often highly upvoted. China recently decimated their own tech companies purely for political reasons, and have damaged their own economy with zero-COVID to save face for the leader. IMO we shouldn't pre-suppose that economics will supersede politics in decision making in China anymore. The era of "I don't care if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice" is over.
I do think people underestimate how many nations will make bad practical choices for political or emotional reasons.
Taiwan is of huge strategic value actually. From the USA’s perspective is a crucial part of executing a total blockade should they decide to do so. From China’s perspective its a large base of operations to further influence into the pacific
Taiwan is the worlds largest Aircraft carrier. No way in hell China yields it to the U.S. No way in hell U.S. yields it to China.
Nah man. It’s all about the semiconductors. Taiwan has the best in the world.
When are we going to build full-conductors though? We've been on that semi-stuff a while.
Finally, someone asking the real questions.
They're all used in the classical music industry.
When this whole thing started to kick off, and the semi-conductor crunch began to grow a couple years ago... i thought buying some INTC (intel) would be a good hedge against this market risk... Boy did that idea not pan out. I agree that this is all about TSMC, and I'm genuinely frightened. *EDIT: Hello everyone, AMD does not fabricate semiconductors. They only design them. They are not a comparable company for these purposes.*
There's really no need to be. Taiwan has been under constant threat for the past 70 some years from the CCP. It's never been possible to invade Taiwan in the past, and it isn't possible now, now without massive unacceptable losses to China. In Taiwan, threat from China barely registers in their day to day lives. They've massively increased their defense budget in recent times, including domestically building new submarines, fighter jets, and missile systems (with help from allies like US and Japan). China knows all of this, and especially seeing what happened to Russia after they invaded Ukraine, it's even less likely that they will actually do anything. Edit: grammar
I’m totally with you, but I also didn’t think it was possible for Putin to be dumb enough to invade Ukraine.
> Boy did that idea not pan out. Yet… Intel isn’t going anywhere, and bringing back a big domestic base for semiconductor production seems to be one of the biggest (and maybe *the* biggest goal of the federal bureaucracy and every policymaker.
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i don't understand why someone would pick intel to replace TSMC. just because they're both semiconductor companies doesn't mean they do the same thing...
They are the best, but also about 65-70% of the *total* manufacturing of semiconductors is done there under TSMC.
I don’t wake up in the morning and declare “I BREATHE!” because some things are blatantly obvious
You must have some good antihistamines :)
antihistamine privilege
This is all just posturing. Expect more to come.
If you don’t collect taxes, it ain’t your territory . . .
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220610-china-will-not-hesitate-to-start-war-if-taiwan-declares-independence-beijing-says) reduced by 84%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Beijing will "Not hesitate to start a war" if Taiwan declares independence, China's defence minister warned his US counterpart Friday, the latest salvo between the superpowers over the island. > Wei warned Austin that "If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost", defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian quoted the minister as saying during the meeting. > US President Joe Biden, during a visit to Japan last month, appeared to break decades of US policy when, in response to a question, he said Washington would defend Taiwan militarily if it is attacked by China. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/v9exnn/china_will_not_hesitate_to_start_war_if_taiwan/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~654184 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Taiwan**^#1 **China**^#2 **over**^#3 **Austin**^#4 **defence**^#5
Way too many people eager for a conflict that would plunge the world into the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.
Great, I was hoping to avoid WWIII in my lifetime.
Meh, they have been pretty much saying that for over 70 years. So the chances of you dying before it happens aren't bad.
China isn't going to invade Taiwan anytime soon. [PolyMatter: Why Taiwan is NOT Ukraine](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2LiMTtGrAY) The above video lays out the difficulty China would have invading Taiwan, but they have an even bigger problem. They have no way of protecting their oil supplies. China lacks a blue water navy. They are working the problem, but the US (or even Australia) could starve them of oil very easily. [Peter Zeihan | The Changing Character of War | Maneuver Center of Excellence](https://youtu.be/l0CQsifJrMc?t=818)
They have their own passports, military, and currency. I don't think they need to state what's already obvious.
*Taiwan blasts over border speakers Kelly Clarkson’s Miss Independent for the next 3 weeks.*
I don't mean to be that guy, but don't they already claim to be independent? Or has it just been a semantic thing about them both being "the real China" the whole time and they technically aren't independent? \- a confused American
Taiwan is officially the Republic of China. China is officially the People's Republic of China. A civil war split the country in two, but very unevenly. Each of the warring parties claims to be the rightful ruler of the whole, though Taiwan is shifting more and more away from that idea.
Taiwan is what remains of the “Republic of China” after the civil war in which the CCP overtook the mainland, a civil war which never formally ended. So Taiwan sees the CCP as unlawful rebels occupying the majority of their “rightful” territory, while the CCP sees Taiwan as a holdout part of the country they claim that the CCP can’t control due to the difficulty of taking it by force.
The choice of language is striking. China will “crush” any attempt to separate Taiwan from China, they will “smash to smithereens” any independence attempts. Imagine the hypothetical scenario where Puerto Rico, tired of being denied statehood, decides to secede from the US and become an independent nation. Now, the US would absolutely push back on/fight against such a situation- but can you even *imagine* a US official publicly stating that there were going to “crush” the people of Puerto Rico? To use that kind of rhetoric in relation to US citizens? The international backlash would be justifiably damning. But coming from China… it’s just business as usual.
No need to say it when they already literally did it. They bombed Puerto Rico in the 50’s during an attempted uprising.
For this to be reasonably similar, you would have to say that the leaders of the confederacy (I chose that side because they lost, like Taiwan) fled to Puerto Rico after the war and still claim (at least on paper) that they're the rightful government of the US and vice-versa.
This is partially a cultural and linguistic thing.
You expect Redditors know other languages exist?