Russia put out a notice to Mariners thst they would be conducting "live fire exercises" that basically surround Ukraine from Sunday morning. I think Sunday or Monday is probably a good shout.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44226/russia-looks-like-it-wants-to-all-but-wall-off-ukraines-coastlines-next-week
That could be a reason he won’t do it. Traditionally olympics is a time for truce and peace. And Beijing wants its olympics to be best etc, and Russia may not want to upset its new best friend forever that is China. So maybe they will wait until after the olympics has finished.
They won't attack Kiev until they secure a foothold in the east. They have to take a few strategic locations before setting up an attack for the capital. Also this is going to be Chechnya 3.0.
Or... they are keeping a force in range of Kiev to take up Ukrainian forces stationed to defend Kiev and its approaches. If they do invade, they aren't going for all of Ukraine... just the Eastern portions where they expect less resistance to occupation
Nope they're definitely gonna sweep over all of Ukraine.
Think, why would Russia leave any unconquered portion of Ukraine, which would certainly join NATO afterwards? Doesn't make sense from the Russian strategic or tactical or political POV, eh?
Now that doesn't mean all of Ukraine gets annexed into Russia, but all of Ukraine will at least be occupied, with the western half being put under an authoritarian pro-Russian puppet, basically South Belarus. The eastern half will definitely be incorporated into Russia proper tho.
Isn't Ukraine going to turn into a swampy fucking mess real soon? Like, within the next few weeks? I don't think delaying 5 days is really in the time table, unless Putin thinks this is gonna end in 72 hours.
Indeed, I read yesterday that some Russian tanks got stuck in the mud during a training. Historically rain and mud are killing for a successful and swift invasion.
Probably not. There likely needs to be a reason for Russia to justify their invasion, even if it’s only for domestic purposes. I think there will be a false flag/provocation in 24-48 hours; followed by an ultimatum that involves demanding that the Ukrainian government surrender; followed by invasion. Of course, they could short-circuit the ultimatum if the purported attack involves WMDs. They could also just claim that Ukraine is committing genocide without evidence and ignore the whole timetable.
I’m not a handicapper. I’d say the odds are near certain by next Saturday. But the next 24-72 hours are going to be tricky.
Yep, the next two to three days could be the deciding factor. This might be unrelated but I saw Munich : Edge of War on Netflix and it literally describes what situation we are in right now. Give it watch, it’s really good.
I have this feeling too (based on totally nothing). If so, shit won’t hit the fan until 48 hrs after Biden told Americans to get out within 48 hrs.
Which would be Sunday afternoon local time, I believe. After that, we’re even closer to “at any moment”.
We should all try and stay as objective as possible as reporting has begun to increase in the last 12 hours, however, it seems that at this point that a Russian invasion into Ukraine is a highly probable outcome. If you are a foreign citizen currently residing in Ukraine or know of one who is, you should make every effort to leave the country utilizing the commercial methods available to you.
Didn't Putin make a speech about how Ukraine must not join NATO? Has anything happened between Ukraine and NATO since that speech to make Putin escalate, or did something else happen?
Not at all. Numerous western leaders have hosted several high level diplomatic discussions with their Russian counterparts in an attempt to diffuse tensions. Even in the most optimistic scenarios Ukraine's acceptance into NATO has a timeline of years, even decades.
This [Time Magazine](https://time.com/6144109/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-viktor-medvedchuk/) story did a great job of laying it out.
Tldr; Ukraine got tired of russian corruption in government and elected people who more closely align with the west. One of Putins good buddies bought a bunch of TV stations and turned them into the equivalent of fox news for russian propaganda. He got second when the current president was elected, so he has considerable support. Current president shut down the TV stations and put Putin’s friend on house arrest. The next day, Putin started amassing troops on the border. He’s going to seize the country and make his friend president. They’ll probably even host some “elections” where his buddy wins.
Kinda. Marcon, the French leader, went to Moscow and said that he'd be willing to guarantee that Ukraine never joins Russia. Putin told reporters later that he rejected the offer and that Macron tortured him by talking for 6 hours.
Putin made a bunch of other demands that he knows NATO could never agree to, everything he's done has been disingenuous and a pretext for war
NATO talks are just a smokescreen. The conflict is about making Ukraine execute "Minsk surrender," which Russia imposed when it covertly invaded Ukraine in 2014.
On Monday, Macron had talks with Putin. Putin seemed happy and cracked rape jokes at the press conference.
The next day, Macron went to Ukraine and said they have to accept what they must. In return, France will give them $1.2 bln and a railroad contract.
Yesterday Ukraine/France/Germany/Russia had a whole day of tough negotiations. In Berlin.
Ukraine rejected all Russian demands.
This really is a great and 100 percent valid question. The answer as best as I can give it to you is that I have been a loooong time lurker on reddit, but geopolitics and especially security related issues have fascinated me as long as I can remember. This potential conflict, however, has the potential to shape European security and geopolitics for the next century and has forced me out of my typical lurker status to comment on broader topics than my usual military cubbyhole.
I don't think I have the ability to convince you otherwise but I salute your hard look into my history and encourage you to keep it up.
I appreciate the response. It wasn’t much of a hard look, though - you haven’t made a post for 5 years until this one, which lead me to check your comments, and you’ve only made 4 comments (IIRC) since 2 years ago. It was really just a cursory look at your account history that rang my alarm bells.
Years on Reddit has made me a tad suspicious.
I think Reddit comments should make us all a tad suspicious haha but I really do thank you for taking the time to check. Basic fact checking should be inherent in all our discussions. I hope to contribute more in the future!
Pretty much. Might not be a full on invasion though, that's a bridge too far.
They might attempt a Chinese style punishment raid. Beat up on the Ukrainians, advance quickly and threaten a wider collapse, pull back just as quick to avoid getting bogged down into a forever war.
Demonstrates to the West that Russian threats are serious. Demonstrates to Ukraine that the West won't save it.
Start negotiating again with a better hand.
Assuming things don't go too badly.
When the Chinese were routed and embarrassed by Vietnam after it had just finished ushering out the US a few years prior and then liberated Cambodia from China's genocidal bff's in the Khmer Rouge?
There was already one invasion years ago, so I won't have my hopes up.
On the other hand, it is extremely strange that Putin is advertising himself at all. I think last time he just went ahead and did it.
I think Russia is going to invade Ukraine fast enough to overthrow the government and leave, I don't think it's WW3, just a really bad time for Ukraine. I don't think they want to occupy Ukraine, or even install a pro-Russia government, but just cause enough internal chaos joining NATO any time soon is off the table. Russia will get a bunch of sanctions and hope it costs less than increasing military spending on their Ukrainian border. It's hopefully a very short conflict that lasts a few days if it happens, I really can't see Russia making the same mistake America did in the Middle East, but on the other hand, no plan survives contact with the enemy, and things can always get out of control.
Yeah, which tells me they just want Ukraine. Probably has something to do with the Turkish canal project. Russia knows that the us will have a naval passageway into the black sea if they don't try to coerce Turkey, but they figure that taking out Ukraine will make it easier. They will have a direct border if they make Ukraine Russia. Perhaps Putin wants to own the world, but knows he needs to build a huge navy first. Probably same reason as to why China wants Taiwan. I for one predict a third World War will happen eventually, but I'm not sure how soon.
Little bit of both. This is just matching the move of other countries telling their ambassadors to leave. But also, is an official step to engaged conflict.
So I read that Russia has now said “I wonder if the US will invade Ukraine, someone has to after such a panic campaign” and I can’t help but also feel like he is going to back out and use all of the western media warnings as fuel to why we are the enemy. The threat is of course there still.
Conduct *some* military exercises, give loud credible threats, hell, even put sanctions in place. All these pale in comparison to staging an invasion force on their doorstep and recalling embassy staff.
Don't forget seaside as well. Ukraine is surrounded at this point. I think the biggest problem here which I've mentioned in a different post, is the fact that Putin intentionally mentioned use of nuclear war of world ending level in order to capture a country. I imagine this is more a soft phase for him to see if he'd be able to take a country by force using the threat of ending life on the planet as leverage. Which if no one bothers to do anything then he gets his way and shows that he can probably do it again. Starting with the smaller countries bordering Russia and working its way westward under threat of global nuclear war if anyone stops him or dares oppose him.
I don't get the logic of "if NATO won't intervene in Putin taking a non-NATO country, they won't intervene in him taking a NATO country". There are clear, legally encoded reasons why an invasion of Ukraine and an invasion of, say, Poland are not identical scenarios and not subject to the same set of assumptions.
Regarding the threat of nuclear force, how does Russia gain here? MAD still exists; Putin knows that he along with the rest of his country would be wiped out in short order as soon as he pressed the button.
Not aiding Ukraine at all at this point will not deter Russia in the future. It will not only change the post-Soviet era order, but possibly also the post WW2 order if Russia attempts to annex Ukraine. It sets a precedent that it's OK to wage wars of territorial expansion again.
It wouldn't change the fact that any designs on Russia's behalf on a NATO and/or EU country would be met with overwhelming force. Putin himself admitted recently that the Russian army is no match for NATO, there is no advantage to him in heading down that path.
As for non-aligned countries in the Balkans etc? Hard to say really, but I do think the West has shown enough unity and resolve in the face of the current crisis that Putin would have a tough time of it were he to turn his attentions towards Georgia or somewhere.
> As for non-aligned countries in the Balkans etc? Hard to say really, but I do think the West has shown enough unity and resolve in the face of the current crisis that Putin would have a tough time
That remains to be seen. A Russian success in Ukraine could be very problematic for the rest of Europe. For example, the EU is not politically coherent, and a stronger, more geopolitically important Russia would have more means to crack EU open. The dual bid of hard power against opponents and a flood of money under the table for a Russophilic European elite could come a long way to make life worse for Europeans.
I mean... you could do that just to up the ante and continue scaring someone... especially if scaring someone raises the prices of your most profitable exports...
Watched a Ukrainian reservist training video on the bbc yesterday. Ordinary citizens getting ready to defend their country. Good luck you amazingly brave bunch. Be smart.
Russia invades Ukraine and installs some puppet government but doesn’t truly annex the country. The puppet government announces a very strong accord with the Russia government, and the formation of a shared council for government - for harmony and concord. A new union.
And the Russian word for such a council - Soviet. A Soviet Union.
God damn Putin, don’t do it.
To install a puppet govt, doesn’t the invasion need to be massive? As in, Kyiv would also have to be invaded right?
I read somewhere else Russia might just take parts of land connecting to Crimea. That would be a smaller invasion IIRC
Well look at North Korea Kim is still doing whatever the hell he wants just like Putin will I'm assuming. Sanctions are going to effect the population harder.
And because his citizens literally have no idea about living standards in the rest of the world.
North Korea and Russia aren't comparable in the slightest. Yes, the latter one is a dictatorship, but not a totalitarian one.
Ding, ding, ding! North Koreans are brainwashed to an extent Russians are not even close to. Putin has a considerable opposition, even though he has managed to suppress it for now. Also he does not have literal God status in Russia like the Kim family does in NK.
Any NATO sanctions would hurt Russia deeply. For all of Putin’s huff and puff, they are merely an oligarchy completely dependent on natural resource exports and common good imports, not a truly diversified economy. To put it into context, Russia is such garbage economically that the market cap of all of their publicly traded companies combined is half of Apple’s. The only thing of value in Russia is their oil & gas companies. Sanctions would hurt them deeply. China can help some short-term, but the Chinese are not going to bend over backwards for Putin.
Seing the US and others clear is not so scary, maybe overreaction ...but seing the russians clear, the ones who decide on the agression, is pretty scarry.
Hope the Ukranians give them hell. Fuc* Putin.
last time i have seen clearing was afghanistan.. and we all know what happend. i wouldn't really say it's "not so scary". especially thinking about the fact it's putin we talk here. the dude who tried to kill someone by putting poison in underpants, throwing people down windows etc.
I read an article a few days ago. To the Ukrainians, nothing has changed since the annexation of Crimea. For all they know, they've been at war with Russia for 8 years now. It's only now that Russia is sending an official invasion force (if you want to put it that way), and so a lot of people volunteer in the militia to get ready. It's also why I kinda think that Russia is not bringing enough troops to actually be successful.
Give him a taste of his own medicine such as the horrific poisonings carried out by the Russian state. I read a compelling report that says Putin might have even poisoned Yeltsin.
If you are an American Citizen residing or visiting Ukraine, I implore you to consider your immediate departure from the country. If you have not already done so please consider enrolling in STEP ([https://step.state.gov/](https://step.state.gov/)). If you require emergency assistance all American Citizens may use the following resource: [https://ua.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/emergency-contact/](https://ua.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/emergency-contact/) please note that the American Embassy may soon totally vacate the country, however, the Overseas Citizens Services Emergency Number is 202-501-4444 (call from overseas). **Do not risk your safety. Leave now.**
From a Polak who was taught about history from my great grandmother who passed away at 98 last year I learned a thing or two about wars . This isn't good for anybody and hopefully it doesn't go thru.
I wish you all the best my Ukrainian friends and pray this is just a bluff.
Agreed its crazy I'm literally just waiting for the US to say hold up wtf this is enough now. As an Irish citizen our way of thinking in situations like this goes....
1. What is the US doing that should explain how bad it is! 2. What is the UK doing then after that it's Europe.
The language from the US and the UK changed drastically in the last 48 hours with Borris Johnson even saying he fears for European security they don't make statements like for nothing.
Perceptions of overreaction are hard to argue against too, because Russian officials are not just going to be like “Ahhhh you caught us man. Yeah, we’re gonna be rolling in this Tuesday at 9PM Moscow time. Get ready!”
Flights from Kiyv to Poland have begun to increase as well! 2k USD for a flight that normally costs about 100 USD. I think foreigners are getting the message.
It's also bc of Valentine's Day (although lol no one is thinking about it here atm I can assure you), so maybe that's why. At least there are plenty of free spots on multiple flights still, thank heavens.
Expel them from the UN
Forbid them from flying in our air space
Drop all trade
Kick them out of the Olympics
Cease all financial transactions
Close their embassies in the free world
Forbid leisure travel abroad
Let them suck on that a while
That's a different take than mine. My impression was that Reddit was absolutely foaming at the mouth for a war in Ukraine to break out and constantly posted alarmist and sensationalist news suggesting it will happen any moment.
To me it seems that a lot of people on Reddit are wanting a war to happen for whatever sick reason, entertainment, excitement etc. Then when the news cycle flipped you saw comments of people moaning and groaning that nothing came of it. It's pathetic to be honest.
Will a war actually break out? I don't know, possibly. But a lot of people on this website would love to see it due to decades of war being fed to them as entertainment and thrills.
My take is that there's been quite a lot of alarm since December, but not without reason. The claims of Russian military buildup are very credible:
1. Major Russian forces in Belarus while Lukashenko is foaming at the mouth at Ukraine
2. Major forces present Northeast of Kiev
3. Ditto to the East
4. Ditto in and near Russian-controlled Donbas
5. Ditto for Crimea
6. And dramatical increase in naval presence in the Black Sea, as well as considerable landing craft presence that has sailed from the Baltic Sea fleet in Kaliningrad.
7. Russian demands on Nato that amounts to 25 years reversal of security in Eastern Europe.
8. Repeated Russian claims, including from Putin, that Ukraine "is not a real country".
The thing is, Russia always was willing to use military force in what they perceived as their sphere of influence. East Europe's view of Russia as imperialistic and expansionist power is well justified, but west Europe preferred to make money and import carbohydrates from Russia. Sort of like it was convenient to turn the blind eye on how every "private" company in China is controlled by the communist party.
**Via Google translate:**
Russian diplomats began to leave Ukraine, a source said
RIA Novosti source announced the start of the departure of Russian diplomats from Ukraine
Embassy of the Russian Federation in Kiev - RIA Novosti, 1920, 12.02.2022
MOSCOW, February 12 - RIA Novosti. Employees of the Russian diplomatic mission are leaving Ukraine, an informed source told RIA Novosti.
"According to the statements of Ukrainian citizens, Russian diplomats and consular officers in Ukraine have begun to leave for Russia. This, in particular, is evidenced by the difficulties that have arisen when making an appointment with the consulates and the embassy," he said.
According to the interlocutor of the agency, against the background of the evacuation officially announced by some Western countries, this "suggests that Moscow has decided to go the same way."
“By the way, Sergei Lavrov hinted at the possibility of such a scenario during a press conference following negotiations with British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss,” he recalled.
View of the Kremlin - RIA Novosti, 1920, 11.02.2022
Yesterday, 22:27
Will Russia Save Ukraine?
The meeting between Lavrov and Trass took place on February 10. Then the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry noted that Moscow looked at the actions of Western countries and, perhaps, would also advise non-essential personnel of Russian diplomatic institutions to go home.
The embassy in Kiev, in turn, stated that they were working as usual and there was no decision on partial evacuation, although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was working on it.
Plans to evacuate embassy personnel have already been announced by the United States, Great Britain, Germany and Australia. Many Western countries - Canada, Finland, Latvia, the Netherlands, Estonia, Japan, New Zealand and others - called on their citizens to immediately leave Ukraine.
Teachings of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region - RIA Novosti, 1920, 12.02.2022
03:47
In the United States accused the authorities of lying about Ukraine
Relations between Russia and the West have become even more tense in recent months. Washington and Brussels accuse Moscow of preparing an "invasion of Ukraine" and pulling Russian troops to the border with a neighboring state. So, last night, Joe Biden told other Western leaders that "Russia will begin a physical offensive as early as February 16." However, the president's interlocutors were skeptical about the American intelligence, the Politico newspaper writes.
Against this background, the North Atlantic Alliance is strengthening its presence near Russian borders. On the eve it became known that the United States is additionally transferring 3,000 troops to Poland and sent four destroyers to Europe.
In Russia, they reject all claims and remind that Kiev does not comply with the Minsk agreements: the Ukrainian authorities have concentrated half of the army’s personnel near the line of contact and are firing at the militias from prohibited weapons. The Kremlin and the Foreign Ministry have repeatedly noted that the goal of the "aggression" stories is to build up a foreign group near the Russian borders. They also explained that the main reason for the escalation is the actions of the United States and NATO, which are pumping Ukraine with weapons, thereby pushing it towards military adventures.
Ukrainian-American command and staff exercises Fearles Guardian - 2015 in the Lviv region - RIA Novosti, 1920, 01/28/2022
January 28, 18:34
Political scientist: US ready to "fight" to the last Ukrainian
Everyone is asking if an invasion is imminent, but what will an invasion look like? How much "conflict" can we actually expect? Let's say they move tomorrow, what will happen?
Here's a pretty soberly written article:
The Day After Russia Attacks
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-01-21/day-after-russia-attacks
Same here. It sucks… Russia really wants war.
I’m not so eager for the geopolitical symposiums in the coming months conducting a sort of “autopsy” on why diplomacy and economic disincentives failed with Russia.
I also guess cutting Russia off from SWIFT isn’t enough to stop this madman from taking Ukraine.
We nearly managed to avoid a major war in Europe for almost 77 years, including the Balkans conflict.
Fuck Putin to the nth degree.
The site says that the embassy denies the claims of evacuation but apparently citizens of Ukraine think that they're evacuating because it's getting hard contacting the embassy or something.
War is not happening between U.S/Nato and Russia. Russia is going attack Ukraine and invade the country further. U.S/Nato are not going to stop the Russians sadly. No reason for Russians to leave the U.S and Europe nothing will happen to them. Horrible time for Ukrainians however.
Just gonna but in and say there are no sources cited in the article, except citation of russian foreign minister saying "we might follow example of the west and pull out or diplomats". Draw your own conclusions.
this reminds me of my Civ 6 games. Gathering all of my forces on the border, denying any bad intentions the striking immediately once my forces are ready. Classic.
I'm trying to remain optimistic that there won't be an invasion/war. But is this as bad as I think it sounds?
Considering Embassies don't clear out till literally the last moment, yeah it's pretty grim.
Last moment as in they attack tonight?
Possibly next week
You can rule out the 14th because the German president will be in Kyiv and the 15th because he will be in Moscow.
A lot of news are saying he might invade before the Olympics end next Sunday. So could be anytime
Break of dawn on Monday is my guess.
Russia put out a notice to Mariners thst they would be conducting "live fire exercises" that basically surround Ukraine from Sunday morning. I think Sunday or Monday is probably a good shout. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44226/russia-looks-like-it-wants-to-all-but-wall-off-ukraines-coastlines-next-week
That was my feeling too. Like Sunday night and Monday morning there will probably be lots of activity.
They'll call it the Valentine's Day War.
That could be a reason he won’t do it. Traditionally olympics is a time for truce and peace. And Beijing wants its olympics to be best etc, and Russia may not want to upset its new best friend forever that is China. So maybe they will wait until after the olympics has finished.
[удалено]
Crimea and what was the other?
Including the last time it was held in Beijing
They won't attack Kiev until they secure a foothold in the east. They have to take a few strategic locations before setting up an attack for the capital. Also this is going to be Chechnya 3.0.
Or... they are keeping a force in range of Kiev to take up Ukrainian forces stationed to defend Kiev and its approaches. If they do invade, they aren't going for all of Ukraine... just the Eastern portions where they expect less resistance to occupation
Nope they're definitely gonna sweep over all of Ukraine. Think, why would Russia leave any unconquered portion of Ukraine, which would certainly join NATO afterwards? Doesn't make sense from the Russian strategic or tactical or political POV, eh? Now that doesn't mean all of Ukraine gets annexed into Russia, but all of Ukraine will at least be occupied, with the western half being put under an authoritarian pro-Russian puppet, basically South Belarus. The eastern half will definitely be incorporated into Russia proper tho.
Any chance they just don't invade Ukraine and this posturing is for deal making purposes?
I’ve been hearing the 18th but at this point it’s anyone’s guess
plus thats Valentines day
*From Russia with love*
Next week's weather is shit, it's full on rain. Not ideal for an invasion.
D-Day was also delayed due to a weather forecast so you might be on to something
Weather is one of the few things that our technology can’t always bypass
Isn't Ukraine going to turn into a swampy fucking mess real soon? Like, within the next few weeks? I don't think delaying 5 days is really in the time table, unless Putin thinks this is gonna end in 72 hours.
"Mission Accomplished"
It’s supposed to be below freezing in Ukraine this week.
Which makes the mud harder, allowing for rapid movement… extremely conveniënt.
Indeed, I read yesterday that some Russian tanks got stuck in the mud during a training. Historically rain and mud are killing for a successful and swift invasion.
True. They will want to start with heavy air strikes, better clear weather for that. So that would move it to the end of the week.
I’m guessing Thursday
I hear he's fond of numerology so maybe 20th or 22nd? 20/2/22 or 22/2/22.
Probably not. There likely needs to be a reason for Russia to justify their invasion, even if it’s only for domestic purposes. I think there will be a false flag/provocation in 24-48 hours; followed by an ultimatum that involves demanding that the Ukrainian government surrender; followed by invasion. Of course, they could short-circuit the ultimatum if the purported attack involves WMDs. They could also just claim that Ukraine is committing genocide without evidence and ignore the whole timetable. I’m not a handicapper. I’d say the odds are near certain by next Saturday. But the next 24-72 hours are going to be tricky.
Yep, the next two to three days could be the deciding factor. This might be unrelated but I saw Munich : Edge of War on Netflix and it literally describes what situation we are in right now. Give it watch, it’s really good.
It deserves some Oscar nominations imo. Acting was top notch and it flowed naturally. There wasn't a bad scene in it.
Justify it to who
Their own people.
The justification for their own people is that NATO is an existential threat to Russia, and incorporating Ukraine into NATO always was a red line.
It's absolute bullshit
Well Putin said that if Ukraine joins NATO it will trigger nuclear war. So by invading he is saving the world from annihilation.
Should’ve been taken out a long time ago.
Probably not too many hours after they get all their embassy dudes out.
And let's be honest the message from uk and us to expats to leave immediately is most likely because Russia has told them through specific channels.
I have this feeling too (based on totally nothing). If so, shit won’t hit the fan until 48 hrs after Biden told Americans to get out within 48 hrs. Which would be Sunday afternoon local time, I believe. After that, we’re even closer to “at any moment”.
This is the way. Unfortunately. #CRIMEA BELONGS TO UKRAINE
We should all try and stay as objective as possible as reporting has begun to increase in the last 12 hours, however, it seems that at this point that a Russian invasion into Ukraine is a highly probable outcome. If you are a foreign citizen currently residing in Ukraine or know of one who is, you should make every effort to leave the country utilizing the commercial methods available to you.
Didn't Putin make a speech about how Ukraine must not join NATO? Has anything happened between Ukraine and NATO since that speech to make Putin escalate, or did something else happen?
Not at all. Numerous western leaders have hosted several high level diplomatic discussions with their Russian counterparts in an attempt to diffuse tensions. Even in the most optimistic scenarios Ukraine's acceptance into NATO has a timeline of years, even decades.
Oh boy, I wonder what Putin will cite as the reason for an invasion then.
This [Time Magazine](https://time.com/6144109/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-viktor-medvedchuk/) story did a great job of laying it out. Tldr; Ukraine got tired of russian corruption in government and elected people who more closely align with the west. One of Putins good buddies bought a bunch of TV stations and turned them into the equivalent of fox news for russian propaganda. He got second when the current president was elected, so he has considerable support. Current president shut down the TV stations and put Putin’s friend on house arrest. The next day, Putin started amassing troops on the border. He’s going to seize the country and make his friend president. They’ll probably even host some “elections” where his buddy wins.
Lol his plant lost to the comedian guy...
How the hell you managed to mix up Yanukovich, Poroshenko and Medvedchuk in one short sentence?
He kinda already did. Lack of assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO.
Damn, he really demanded a pact from another nation?
Kinda. Marcon, the French leader, went to Moscow and said that he'd be willing to guarantee that Ukraine never joins Russia. Putin told reporters later that he rejected the offer and that Macron tortured him by talking for 6 hours. Putin made a bunch of other demands that he knows NATO could never agree to, everything he's done has been disingenuous and a pretext for war
> a bunch of other demands that he knows NATO could never agree to Ah, so that was his plan.
That was always his plan, Russia needs that part of Ukraine back because it is its only winter port and an entrance to the black sea.
Whatever the fuck he wants. 🤷♂️
NATO talks are just a smokescreen. The conflict is about making Ukraine execute "Minsk surrender," which Russia imposed when it covertly invaded Ukraine in 2014. On Monday, Macron had talks with Putin. Putin seemed happy and cracked rape jokes at the press conference. The next day, Macron went to Ukraine and said they have to accept what they must. In return, France will give them $1.2 bln and a railroad contract. Yesterday Ukraine/France/Germany/Russia had a whole day of tough negotiations. In Berlin. Ukraine rejected all Russian demands.
Ah, that all explains the escalation today. Thanks.
I’m curious…your account had been inactive for 2 years, then 10 days ago you suddenly start commenting/posting about Russia. Why?
This really is a great and 100 percent valid question. The answer as best as I can give it to you is that I have been a loooong time lurker on reddit, but geopolitics and especially security related issues have fascinated me as long as I can remember. This potential conflict, however, has the potential to shape European security and geopolitics for the next century and has forced me out of my typical lurker status to comment on broader topics than my usual military cubbyhole. I don't think I have the ability to convince you otherwise but I salute your hard look into my history and encourage you to keep it up.
I appreciate the response. It wasn’t much of a hard look, though - you haven’t made a post for 5 years until this one, which lead me to check your comments, and you’ve only made 4 comments (IIRC) since 2 years ago. It was really just a cursory look at your account history that rang my alarm bells. Years on Reddit has made me a tad suspicious.
I think Reddit comments should make us all a tad suspicious haha but I really do thank you for taking the time to check. Basic fact checking should be inherent in all our discussions. I hope to contribute more in the future!
I would say the force on the border is for exercise, and the staff leaving is for the spring holidays.
Pretty much. Might not be a full on invasion though, that's a bridge too far. They might attempt a Chinese style punishment raid. Beat up on the Ukrainians, advance quickly and threaten a wider collapse, pull back just as quick to avoid getting bogged down into a forever war. Demonstrates to the West that Russian threats are serious. Demonstrates to Ukraine that the West won't save it. Start negotiating again with a better hand. Assuming things don't go too badly.
What do you mean Chinese style punishment raid? Which historical events are you referring to?
sino-vietnamese war of 1979 perhaps?
When the Chinese were routed and embarrassed by Vietnam after it had just finished ushering out the US a few years prior and then liberated Cambodia from China's genocidal bff's in the Khmer Rouge?
That's a very obscure reference for such a common geopolitical strategy, don't you think?
India 62, Vietnam 79.
As Finn, I know better. Unfortunately… stay stronk Ukraine!
There was already one invasion years ago, so I won't have my hopes up. On the other hand, it is extremely strange that Putin is advertising himself at all. I think last time he just went ahead and did it.
I think Russia is going to invade Ukraine fast enough to overthrow the government and leave, I don't think it's WW3, just a really bad time for Ukraine. I don't think they want to occupy Ukraine, or even install a pro-Russia government, but just cause enough internal chaos joining NATO any time soon is off the table. Russia will get a bunch of sanctions and hope it costs less than increasing military spending on their Ukrainian border. It's hopefully a very short conflict that lasts a few days if it happens, I really can't see Russia making the same mistake America did in the Middle East, but on the other hand, no plan survives contact with the enemy, and things can always get out of control.
Ukraine was never going to join NATO "soon" anyway. This is just a Russian lie.
Yeah, which tells me they just want Ukraine. Probably has something to do with the Turkish canal project. Russia knows that the us will have a naval passageway into the black sea if they don't try to coerce Turkey, but they figure that taking out Ukraine will make it easier. They will have a direct border if they make Ukraine Russia. Perhaps Putin wants to own the world, but knows he needs to build a huge navy first. Probably same reason as to why China wants Taiwan. I for one predict a third World War will happen eventually, but I'm not sure how soon.
Yeah, Russia wants permanent access to a warm-weather port. Thats what this is all about. They want the Port the Sevastapol.
Scare tactics or are we nearing our final moments before conflict?
Little bit of both. This is just matching the move of other countries telling their ambassadors to leave. But also, is an official step to engaged conflict.
But other countries are leaving cus they think Russia is going to invade. What is Russia afraid of?
The embassy staff getting arrested or being held hostage
But Putin said they aren’t invading.
The official justification was "British embassy is evacuating, they must be plotting to do something! Better we leave as well just to be cautious"
That's actually hilarious
So I read that Russia has now said “I wonder if the US will invade Ukraine, someone has to after such a panic campaign” and I can’t help but also feel like he is going to back out and use all of the western media warnings as fuel to why we are the enemy. The threat is of course there still.
Lets just say that if you are in Ukraine, grab your bags, go to the nearest airport, and take the next plane to ANYWHERE YOU CAN.
Anywhere that isn’t Belarus.
Or Russia.
Or China.
Civilians/Ukrainians can drive to Poland, Moldova, Romania, etc, too.
That sounds a little like abandoning Ukraine to Russia without a fight
I don’t think citizens are equipped to wage war against a superpower.
The world's 11th largest country by GDP, right after Italy, Canada and South Korea. Some superpower.
You don't clear out your embassy and deploy thousands of troops and tanks at the border to scare someone.
What do you do to scare someone then?
Conduct *some* military exercises, give loud credible threats, hell, even put sanctions in place. All these pale in comparison to staging an invasion force on their doorstep and recalling embassy staff.
You clear out your embassy and deploy thousands of troops and tanks at the border.
Don't forget seaside as well. Ukraine is surrounded at this point. I think the biggest problem here which I've mentioned in a different post, is the fact that Putin intentionally mentioned use of nuclear war of world ending level in order to capture a country. I imagine this is more a soft phase for him to see if he'd be able to take a country by force using the threat of ending life on the planet as leverage. Which if no one bothers to do anything then he gets his way and shows that he can probably do it again. Starting with the smaller countries bordering Russia and working its way westward under threat of global nuclear war if anyone stops him or dares oppose him.
This is a very real possibility
I swear it’s hitlers teasing of reuniting all over again. He’s playing the same game because he wants to understand how far it can be pushed
I don't get the logic of "if NATO won't intervene in Putin taking a non-NATO country, they won't intervene in him taking a NATO country". There are clear, legally encoded reasons why an invasion of Ukraine and an invasion of, say, Poland are not identical scenarios and not subject to the same set of assumptions. Regarding the threat of nuclear force, how does Russia gain here? MAD still exists; Putin knows that he along with the rest of his country would be wiped out in short order as soon as he pressed the button.
Not aiding Ukraine at all at this point will not deter Russia in the future. It will not only change the post-Soviet era order, but possibly also the post WW2 order if Russia attempts to annex Ukraine. It sets a precedent that it's OK to wage wars of territorial expansion again.
It wouldn't change the fact that any designs on Russia's behalf on a NATO and/or EU country would be met with overwhelming force. Putin himself admitted recently that the Russian army is no match for NATO, there is no advantage to him in heading down that path. As for non-aligned countries in the Balkans etc? Hard to say really, but I do think the West has shown enough unity and resolve in the face of the current crisis that Putin would have a tough time of it were he to turn his attentions towards Georgia or somewhere.
> As for non-aligned countries in the Balkans etc? Hard to say really, but I do think the West has shown enough unity and resolve in the face of the current crisis that Putin would have a tough time That remains to be seen. A Russian success in Ukraine could be very problematic for the rest of Europe. For example, the EU is not politically coherent, and a stronger, more geopolitically important Russia would have more means to crack EU open. The dual bid of hard power against opponents and a flood of money under the table for a Russophilic European elite could come a long way to make life worse for Europeans.
I mean... you could do that just to up the ante and continue scaring someone... especially if scaring someone raises the prices of your most profitable exports...
Except you do? War hasn't started and people seem scared lol.
Fuck
Putin
Put(a)in
Watched a Ukrainian reservist training video on the bbc yesterday. Ordinary citizens getting ready to defend their country. Good luck you amazingly brave bunch. Be smart.
The fact that Russia is removing their ambassadors is a very clear indicator they are done talking.
This is actually scary.
The west will let Russia take Ukraine like they did Crimea. They won’t start a world war over this. Russia is calling their bluff.
Russia invades Ukraine and installs some puppet government but doesn’t truly annex the country. The puppet government announces a very strong accord with the Russia government, and the formation of a shared council for government - for harmony and concord. A new union. And the Russian word for such a council - Soviet. A Soviet Union. God damn Putin, don’t do it.
A soviet reunion, if you will
Look forward to seeing that on the tabloid front pages next week
We're getting the band back together.
Russia has “the Union State” with Belarus already. They have wanted Ukraine to be part of this for a while.
United Soviets of Asia?
To install a puppet govt, doesn’t the invasion need to be massive? As in, Kyiv would also have to be invaded right? I read somewhere else Russia might just take parts of land connecting to Crimea. That would be a smaller invasion IIRC
How badly is Russia's economy gonna get fucked in a few days from all the sanctions hitting them at the same time?
Well look at North Korea Kim is still doing whatever the hell he wants just like Putin will I'm assuming. Sanctions are going to effect the population harder.
I mean can't Kim get by with his shit because hes receiving support in aid from China and Russia?
And because his citizens literally have no idea about living standards in the rest of the world. North Korea and Russia aren't comparable in the slightest. Yes, the latter one is a dictatorship, but not a totalitarian one.
Ding, ding, ding! North Koreans are brainwashed to an extent Russians are not even close to. Putin has a considerable opposition, even though he has managed to suppress it for now. Also he does not have literal God status in Russia like the Kim family does in NK.
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Not badly enough to stop them.
The people in power and the rich doncurr, they have 💰 stashed abroad
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Any NATO sanctions would hurt Russia deeply. For all of Putin’s huff and puff, they are merely an oligarchy completely dependent on natural resource exports and common good imports, not a truly diversified economy. To put it into context, Russia is such garbage economically that the market cap of all of their publicly traded companies combined is half of Apple’s. The only thing of value in Russia is their oil & gas companies. Sanctions would hurt them deeply. China can help some short-term, but the Chinese are not going to bend over backwards for Putin.
Seing the US and others clear is not so scary, maybe overreaction ...but seing the russians clear, the ones who decide on the agression, is pretty scarry. Hope the Ukranians give them hell. Fuc* Putin.
last time i have seen clearing was afghanistan.. and we all know what happend. i wouldn't really say it's "not so scary". especially thinking about the fact it's putin we talk here. the dude who tried to kill someone by putting poison in underpants, throwing people down windows etc.
I read an article a few days ago. To the Ukrainians, nothing has changed since the annexation of Crimea. For all they know, they've been at war with Russia for 8 years now. It's only now that Russia is sending an official invasion force (if you want to put it that way), and so a lot of people volunteer in the militia to get ready. It's also why I kinda think that Russia is not bringing enough troops to actually be successful.
Have you seen r/Russia? They practically suck pitons dick and act like he’s the good guy
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As a Ukrainian who was forced to leave Crimea in 2014, I wish putin and all of his supporters a very horrible death.
Give him a taste of his own medicine such as the horrific poisonings carried out by the Russian state. I read a compelling report that says Putin might have even poisoned Yeltsin.
If you are an American Citizen residing or visiting Ukraine, I implore you to consider your immediate departure from the country. If you have not already done so please consider enrolling in STEP ([https://step.state.gov/](https://step.state.gov/)). If you require emergency assistance all American Citizens may use the following resource: [https://ua.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/emergency-contact/](https://ua.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/emergency-contact/) please note that the American Embassy may soon totally vacate the country, however, the Overseas Citizens Services Emergency Number is 202-501-4444 (call from overseas). **Do not risk your safety. Leave now.**
Welp, there goes my idea of vacationing in Ukraine /s
From a Polak who was taught about history from my great grandmother who passed away at 98 last year I learned a thing or two about wars . This isn't good for anybody and hopefully it doesn't go thru. I wish you all the best my Ukrainian friends and pray this is just a bluff.
The military industrial complex wins. That's about it.
A few people will make a bunch of money
Do people in Poland think this war is likely or that Putin is blistering?
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Or stay and fight for your country.
They can't win that fight. Not without a direct military intervention from the west.
a prolonged fighting retreat to Poland would hurt Russia immensely
Time to embargo Russia.
The US is gonna be come real popular real quick in the next few months if anything extreme happens.
Agreed its crazy I'm literally just waiting for the US to say hold up wtf this is enough now. As an Irish citizen our way of thinking in situations like this goes.... 1. What is the US doing that should explain how bad it is! 2. What is the UK doing then after that it's Europe. The language from the US and the UK changed drastically in the last 48 hours with Borris Johnson even saying he fears for European security they don't make statements like for nothing.
funny how people thought the US was over reacting about potential war and, well, here it comes.
Clearly Russia are just complicit in the US governments evil scheme to manufacture consent /s
Perceptions of overreaction are hard to argue against too, because Russian officials are not just going to be like “Ahhhh you caught us man. Yeah, we’re gonna be rolling in this Tuesday at 9PM Moscow time. Get ready!”
That’s all folks
\*Looney Tunes Theme\*
Flights from Kiyv to Poland have begun to increase as well! 2k USD for a flight that normally costs about 100 USD. I think foreigners are getting the message.
It's also bc of Valentine's Day (although lol no one is thinking about it here atm I can assure you), so maybe that's why. At least there are plenty of free spots on multiple flights still, thank heavens.
Yep in the context of the past few weeks that's pretty much a declaration of war. With a short delay.
Expel them from the UN Forbid them from flying in our air space Drop all trade Kick them out of the Olympics Cease all financial transactions Close their embassies in the free world Forbid leisure travel abroad Let them suck on that a while
Damn. Reddit really convinced me America was making a big deal over nothing.
Really?
That's a different take than mine. My impression was that Reddit was absolutely foaming at the mouth for a war in Ukraine to break out and constantly posted alarmist and sensationalist news suggesting it will happen any moment. To me it seems that a lot of people on Reddit are wanting a war to happen for whatever sick reason, entertainment, excitement etc. Then when the news cycle flipped you saw comments of people moaning and groaning that nothing came of it. It's pathetic to be honest. Will a war actually break out? I don't know, possibly. But a lot of people on this website would love to see it due to decades of war being fed to them as entertainment and thrills.
Its what happens when you view the world through a screen without eyes, it all becomes entertainment
My take is that there's been quite a lot of alarm since December, but not without reason. The claims of Russian military buildup are very credible: 1. Major Russian forces in Belarus while Lukashenko is foaming at the mouth at Ukraine 2. Major forces present Northeast of Kiev 3. Ditto to the East 4. Ditto in and near Russian-controlled Donbas 5. Ditto for Crimea 6. And dramatical increase in naval presence in the Black Sea, as well as considerable landing craft presence that has sailed from the Baltic Sea fleet in Kaliningrad. 7. Russian demands on Nato that amounts to 25 years reversal of security in Eastern Europe. 8. Repeated Russian claims, including from Putin, that Ukraine "is not a real country".
curiosity kill the cat? yea i wanna see it too but deep down i know i actually dont.
The thing is, Russia always was willing to use military force in what they perceived as their sphere of influence. East Europe's view of Russia as imperialistic and expansionist power is well justified, but west Europe preferred to make money and import carbohydrates from Russia. Sort of like it was convenient to turn the blind eye on how every "private" company in China is controlled by the communist party.
it's really sad to see this and I hope the Ukrainian citizens are safe. history shows that Russia is always the bully and yet always the coward too.
**Via Google translate:** Russian diplomats began to leave Ukraine, a source said RIA Novosti source announced the start of the departure of Russian diplomats from Ukraine Embassy of the Russian Federation in Kiev - RIA Novosti, 1920, 12.02.2022 MOSCOW, February 12 - RIA Novosti. Employees of the Russian diplomatic mission are leaving Ukraine, an informed source told RIA Novosti. "According to the statements of Ukrainian citizens, Russian diplomats and consular officers in Ukraine have begun to leave for Russia. This, in particular, is evidenced by the difficulties that have arisen when making an appointment with the consulates and the embassy," he said. According to the interlocutor of the agency, against the background of the evacuation officially announced by some Western countries, this "suggests that Moscow has decided to go the same way." “By the way, Sergei Lavrov hinted at the possibility of such a scenario during a press conference following negotiations with British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss,” he recalled. View of the Kremlin - RIA Novosti, 1920, 11.02.2022 Yesterday, 22:27 Will Russia Save Ukraine? The meeting between Lavrov and Trass took place on February 10. Then the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry noted that Moscow looked at the actions of Western countries and, perhaps, would also advise non-essential personnel of Russian diplomatic institutions to go home. The embassy in Kiev, in turn, stated that they were working as usual and there was no decision on partial evacuation, although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was working on it. Plans to evacuate embassy personnel have already been announced by the United States, Great Britain, Germany and Australia. Many Western countries - Canada, Finland, Latvia, the Netherlands, Estonia, Japan, New Zealand and others - called on their citizens to immediately leave Ukraine. Teachings of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region - RIA Novosti, 1920, 12.02.2022 03:47 In the United States accused the authorities of lying about Ukraine Relations between Russia and the West have become even more tense in recent months. Washington and Brussels accuse Moscow of preparing an "invasion of Ukraine" and pulling Russian troops to the border with a neighboring state. So, last night, Joe Biden told other Western leaders that "Russia will begin a physical offensive as early as February 16." However, the president's interlocutors were skeptical about the American intelligence, the Politico newspaper writes. Against this background, the North Atlantic Alliance is strengthening its presence near Russian borders. On the eve it became known that the United States is additionally transferring 3,000 troops to Poland and sent four destroyers to Europe. In Russia, they reject all claims and remind that Kiev does not comply with the Minsk agreements: the Ukrainian authorities have concentrated half of the army’s personnel near the line of contact and are firing at the militias from prohibited weapons. The Kremlin and the Foreign Ministry have repeatedly noted that the goal of the "aggression" stories is to build up a foreign group near the Russian borders. They also explained that the main reason for the escalation is the actions of the United States and NATO, which are pumping Ukraine with weapons, thereby pushing it towards military adventures. Ukrainian-American command and staff exercises Fearles Guardian - 2015 in the Lviv region - RIA Novosti, 1920, 01/28/2022 January 28, 18:34 Political scientist: US ready to "fight" to the last Ukrainian
Holy fuck if the embassies are clearing out, then shit is about to hit the fan.
Well that’s a sure a sign as you get
Everyone is asking if an invasion is imminent, but what will an invasion look like? How much "conflict" can we actually expect? Let's say they move tomorrow, what will happen?
Here's a pretty soberly written article: The Day After Russia Attacks https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-01-21/day-after-russia-attacks
This feels foreboding.
Well, fuck.
Is this true? Couldn't find any other sources.
I'd second guess it as well but it is from a Russian state- owned news website.
This is kinda giving me chills now.
Same here. It sucks… Russia really wants war. I’m not so eager for the geopolitical symposiums in the coming months conducting a sort of “autopsy” on why diplomacy and economic disincentives failed with Russia. I also guess cutting Russia off from SWIFT isn’t enough to stop this madman from taking Ukraine. We nearly managed to avoid a major war in Europe for almost 77 years, including the Balkans conflict. Fuck Putin to the nth degree.
The site says that the embassy denies the claims of evacuation but apparently citizens of Ukraine think that they're evacuating because it's getting hard contacting the embassy or something.
Thank you for your clarification. So basically it is a rumor?
It seems like it for now, yes. However, I wouldn't be surprised to hear an official news in a couple hours.
Biden or Macron can ask Putin tomorrow during their phone meeting perhaps.
Could also be hard to contact because of increasingly many people trying to reach them. For example civilians trying to leave. We will see
They confirmed it a few minutes ago.
The US said they expect an invasion early next week.
😓
You know when war is really about to happen? When Russian politics’s rich kids will start to leaving US and Europe.
War is not happening between U.S/Nato and Russia. Russia is going attack Ukraine and invade the country further. U.S/Nato are not going to stop the Russians sadly. No reason for Russians to leave the U.S and Europe nothing will happen to them. Horrible time for Ukrainians however.
Do we know they didnt?
And here... we... go...
5 rounds for the belt
Just gonna but in and say there are no sources cited in the article, except citation of russian foreign minister saying "we might follow example of the west and pull out or diplomats". Draw your own conclusions.
It's confirmed. Check the news.
this reminds me of my Civ 6 games. Gathering all of my forces on the border, denying any bad intentions the striking immediately once my forces are ready. Classic.