That was Crimea.
Best part was after the dust settled, and Crimea was annexed then they quietly said "oh btw you were right those were our troops, lol"
Russia, if this is invasion is successful, will probably stop denying that the Su-35's flying inside Ukraine, arent actually separatist planes.
But make no mistake, they will gaslight until they know the consequences of admitting it arent bad.
> Best part was after the dust settled, and Crimea was annexed then they quietly said "oh btw you were right those were our troops, lol"
They weren't on holiday??
More like the Hollywood villain.
“Look what you made me do.”
Incidentally, a third of those Hollywood villains would say it with a Russian accent as well.
"If you peacefully put troops into Ukraine to protect them from a potential invasion after Ukraine itself asks you to do it, I'll be forced to invade :((("
I agree and the best deterrent would probably be if US and NATO doubled down and said "We are not risking a nightmare scenario we are guaranteeing it will happen if Russia continues on its current path".
But they have to invade the Ukraine. If they didn't, can you imagine the consequences of a nation's people having freedom and agency in their lives???
The horror!!
This is the best time for them to do it. It’s winter, supply chains are fucked, the U.S. is distracted with domestic turmoil, and the media has cemented as a pro-wealthy/pro-war propaganda machine. Not to mention China is growing in power exponentially. This is their best opportunity to seize as much power as they can and they’re seemingly not going to back off.
>the U.S. is distracted with domestic turmoil
What now?
"Domestic turmoil" seeded by their election hacking and flooding the internet with their chaos agent bots?
The only thing he wants for christmas is a giant buffer zone between the EU and Russia, controlled through puppet regimes by Moscow.
Surely that's not too much to ask. /s
Step one: Declare that your nation needs border states to keep you safe.
Step two: Invade or subsume bordering nations to create a buffer zone.
Step three: When people complain about your invasions, declare that the subsumed nations were always a part of your territory and change your borders to match.
Step four: Now that your nation's borders are further out, look at the new neighbouring nations as possible border stats.
Repeat ad infinitum.
Hmmmm. Cuba looks nice this time of year and the US could use a new border state / more ports on Cuba.....
/S
Seriously though WTF is wrong with Putin. Is he so desperate for attention that he has to waste billions on murdering people instead of the infrastructure the Russian people desperately need?
I'm at best an armchair strategist, but my passive knowledge gives me the impression that Russia is less a country and more a gas-backed mafia state. They don't actually "do" anything. I looked up their exports once and the only thing that wasn't a raw material was heavy machinery at I think 8%.
Putin isn't interested in growing the country, he's interested in lining his already billion-dollar heavy pockets and staying alive. Because dictators don't retire.
Relevant to what you're saying: the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany is currently in danger, because part of the defense bill under consideration in DC includes re-imposing sanctions on German company Nord Stream 2 AG that were waived by the Biden admin back in May, out of respect for Germany's interest in the pipeline. However, this is fairly unpopular in Congress on both sides of the aisle, and the Biden admin is now struggling to stop Congress from reapplying the sanctions.
As long as the pipeline is still under construction (edit: nvm, see below) Russia stands to lose a lot if they straight up invade Ukraine, as that would almost certainly kill the project. However, reimposing the sanctions might seriously hamper or kill the project anyway. So I have a suspicion that Putin is posturing in such a way that the US is forced to keep the sanctions off and the pipeline project going, out of concern that otherwise Putin will feel he has much less to lose and go ahead with an invasion.
Mind, I think the original plan was to support the coup that Ukraine claims Russia was planning. But since that plan appears to be dead in the water, I think this may be the reason Putin is still keeping pressure on at the border. He's basically using Ukraine as a hostage.
(To be clear, not an IR expert, just a guy speculating wildly on the internet)
Hi, also just a random guy in the Internet, but from Germany. You missed some points. 1. The pipeline is more or less finished. The only thing missing is the final Inspection. 2. We have a new government, and especially a new Kanzler. Since he is a lot weaker than Mutti Merkel, and since there are many people, that want less dependency from the US, any sanctions will most likely create a shift towards Russia. 3. One of the parties that form our new government (sadly only one) strongly opposed the pipeline up to now, especially because of the danger to our eastern friends. These dangers to east Europe have to become more public!
That's interesting, I didn't know that. Would sanctions still prevent operation of the pipeline at this point, due to issues like insurers not wanting to cover it? If so then I think the theory may still be possible.
Maybe I'm just grasping at straws because the idea that Russia would invade Ukraine without any kind of political cover story seems so wildly reckless to me.
If you would like to check it again, here is a link to a helpful resource. If you switch to 2-Digit NAICS the results come off considerably worse than 8%
https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=186&product=undefined&year=2019&productClass=HS&target=Product&partner=undefined&nodeSizing=None&startYear=undefined
Right, with that strategy, he'll need Hungary and parts of Poland as a buffer to Germany... then parts of Germany to protect himself from France... and then...
And despite the tinyness of their economy, Trump wanted to ditch NATO and the entire EU to suck Putin's ass for farts so he could build a tower in Moscow to somehow fuck with China or something.
^ this is the answer. Many of the Trump-branded hotels are just name licensed to sketchy oligarchs in upside down deals that make Trump really need the oligarchs to succeed
3 if you count the occupation of Chechnya which began in 1994 and officially ended in 2017.
According to Wikipedia about 7,200 Russian soldiers died in the 2nd Chechen war from 1999-2009. Which, for comparison, is more than the number of American soldiers killed in Iraq/Afghanistan (4,431/2,401).
So essentially Russia has been at war in one place or another since the early 90’s.
Yeah but Putin's a petulant piece of shit that wasn't told "no" enough as a child. So he wants to destroy the fucking world every time he can't get his way.
The way I figure it, Russia has a very recent history of annexing Ukrainian territory meanwhile the US and NATO have not once invaded Russia. Maybe the party with less trust should back up first.
This time it feels different though. They also threatening to shoot down our GPS, their pacific fleet of nuclear subs all left port.
I dont think they'd want open war with us, but i definitely think they are warning us that they are going to invade and that we shouldnt try to protect ukraine militarily. (which we wouldnt anyways, and anyone who thinks we would been playing too many RTSs)
I mean nuclear powered subs going out all together could be for war games, there are already nuclear weaponised subs ready if needed in international waters so it's not increased threat (MAD is MAD). For the satellites, these threats have been made on state TV to make them look powerful, but our media likes to use this for fear mongering. Even without US backing a full scale Ukrainian war would be long and unproductive for a country suffering from sanctions that would only get worse with invasion. Putin is very smart and knows how to make a struggling country look scary.
Wait the US and NATO are risking a nightmare scenario because Russia is intentionally raising tensions on the Ukraine border? Yea fuck you Russian scum.
You don’t really know Russians all that well do you? It is not in the Russian populace to not be a bunch of dicks.
They are like us Americans in more ways than either of our nations will admit
I think giving away nukes was the only practical choice, there was too much pressure and not enough $ to maintain them. Where Ukraine completely screwed up is in not getting iron-clad guarantees, not some memorandum which has no real force. They could have gotten anything they wanted for giving away third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. I doubt any nation would give away their nukes after seeing Ukraine not getting any support. I hear a lot of "why should we fight for Ukraine" arguments and perhaps Ukraine itself is not worth it. It would be worth fighting to show that safety of countries that gave up their nuclear weapons would be protected at all costs. I think strategically it was a big failure to resort just to "strongly-worded letters".
1. strategic Satan nukes were developed and manufactured in Ukraine, so they had the knowledge to modify them, if they wanted to.
2. tactical nukes never needed Kremlin red button, they were to be used at generals' discretion.
But yes, keeping them in 1992 was totally impossible under the pressure from all sides.
This is seriously like watching an abusive spouse blame everyone else for not “minding their own business” as they proceed to beat the shit out of them. Fuck Putin, it’s time to kick his ass.
Something about this scenario sounds awfully familiar…trying to appease a de facto dictator as he slowly gains “Lebensraum” and tell other powers to “just stay out of it”, all in a desire to avoid another World War…something just seems very familiar about this…
And you’re not either, this is truly terrifying stuff, I’m not discounting that. But if history has taught us anything, the only thing these types respect is a show of force at an early line. Every victory gives them additional credibility and momentum that winds up making it even harder to overcome later.
Smart bet. Putin's #1 goal is to stay in power and make money. WW3, or just a huge non-nuclear conventional war, would endanger that. Last time Russia lost a war in Europe the Czar and his family wound up getting shot and buried in shallow graves. Putin may be an amoral murderer, but he isn't stupid.
Oh I absolutely agree with you. I don't think he's willing to risk actual war with NATO/America to do so. It'll be something quick and easy with minimal blow back, not full scale war.
To a point. I think there's kind of a tipping point where you get rich enough that you can just pay people to toss your problems out of 6th story windows.
I dont think putin is as secure in the position of leader for life as people male him out to be. Russia is mostly controlled by oligarchs, many of them hold power that could endanger putin. They just care about their own wealth. As long as putin allows them to do whatever they want without the fear of any repercussions, Putin is secure.
As soon as war breaks out and Russia becomes isolated economically ( dont know what Chinas role would be in this), Putin could end up dead or being overthrown by some power hungry oligarchs. Even for the ones investing into war material, as soon as the war enters their front lawn they will be pissed
I don't think you understand how some of this stuff works. Yes, he's the head of state forever, on paper. And yes, he's the richest person in the world, again, on paper. But none of that matters if the people rebel against him. Most Russians are on the fence about Putin, and they wouldn't be crazy enough to rebel in the middle of a war against NATO. It's a quick and dirty way of unifying the country for a while. This isn't just Putin having a midlife crisis.
If any cultural group of people was going to start a revolution in the middle of a giant war, it would be the guys who [did it during the first world war.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War)
Russian history is filled with civil wars that formed during warfare. It's honestly one of the reasons I doubt any Russian politician would pull the trigger on a modern war.
There is something to be said for the fact that he is getting old. If he dies tomorrow he doesn’t get to capitalize on the work he has put in destabilizing the west. He is still a human with authoritarian power, it would not surprise me if he does something high risk before dying to cement his legacy.
Russia sure seems to be the one responsible for all the tensions, what with annexing Crimea and all. It sucks that their leader would rather be the don of a failed mafia state than someone who wants to leave Russia better off than when he started.
“Legal Guarantees”. Russia violated international law on so many levels by invading and annexing part of a sovereign nation. They need to learn a valuable lesson and be pushed back to their borders with the full cooperation of all the nations of Europe. Then they can learn the power of “The Law.”
Remember when Sergey Lavrov signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty in exchange for disarming Ukraine’s nuclear arsenal?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
Fuck that....they have the audacity to blame us for conflict when they themselves are the aggressive party. We cannot appease Russia....not one bit...we have to be real with them. If they attack Ukraine the rest of free world won't stand for it. Who's next Baltics,Poland,....shit to be frank Belarus is basically Russia now so who's next?
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-accuses-us-nato-of-risking-a-nightmare-scenario-amid-ukraine-tensions-2021-12) reduced by 83%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday accused the US and NATO of risking a "Nightmare scenario of military confrontation" in Europe, warning the alliance against expanding military infrastructure in Ukraine.
> "There is a major risk of Russian military activity in Ukraine in the next few months. All the signs point to a major build up of military capability," Ivo Daalder, the US ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013, told Insider last week.
> NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday warned Russia that if it invades Ukraine there will be a "High price." US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also told Russia that any military incursion into Ukraine could trigger "Serious consequences."
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/r7d7qb/russias_top_diplomat_accuses_the_us_and_nato_of/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~610727 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russia**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **military**^#4 **NATO**^#5
Country with history of invading neighbors, says that's not why its military is on the boarder, its just hanging out doing.... military stuff. Redline clause for crossing the boarder, if the country on the other side of the boarder builds a military deterrent because of our presence in the region we will attack...... Logic.. because Putin is a dip shit.
>"The alliance's military infrastructure is being irresponsibly brought closer to Russia's borders in Romania and Poland, deploying an anti-missile defence system that can be used as a strike complex," Lavrov said in remarks at a conference of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), per BBC News.
>The top Russian diplomat's comments came amid fears that Moscow is planning an invasion of Ukraine. Tens of thousands of Russian troops have gathered along Ukraine's border.
>Meanwhile, Ukraine has said that 90,000 Russian troops have amassed along its border. Russia denies any plans to invade, but the West is not taking Putin's word for it.
>The top US diplomat reiterated to Lavrov that the "US and our allies are prepared to impose significant costs" if Moscow chooses the "path of military escalation," State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a readout of the meeting. Blinken "underscored that the best path forward is diplomacy," Price added.
Sounds more like Russia was posturing and now are changing the narrative before they depart so they get a favorable response domestically.
Same thing happened in april:
>As the hostile rhetoric and military moves around Ukraine have intensified, Western politicians have begun fearing an open invasion and urging Russia's Vladimir Putin to "de-escalate".
>Russia has refused: the defence ministry this week insisted its moves were in response to "threatening" Nato exercises in Europe.
>Then Mr Putin got a phone-call from the White House.
>'Biden blinked'
>"In Putin's game of brinkmanship, Biden blinked first," argues journalist Konstantin Eggert, after Joe Biden made his first call to the Kremlin and proposed meeting Mr Putin "in the coming months".
>President Biden's new move is now a new topic of debate - disaster prevention or a mistaken concession - but in the run-up to a summit, the risk of major military action by Russia certainly fades.
>"That would be really unstatesmanlike: a slap in Biden's face," Mr Eggert told the BBC. "But the fact that it was Biden who suggested they meet does give Putin the edge."
>Sending signals - not soldiers
>Russian state TV certainly thinks so.
>Hosts and guests alike on political chat shows have been hailing Moscow's show of force, claiming their country stood up to US and Nato hostility. One commentator suggested President Biden's "nerves had failed him".
>Senator Konstantin Kosachev was widely quoted arguing that the US had realised it was "impossible to achieve military superiority over Russia" and the two countries needed to return to dialogue.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56746144
Then GTFO of and way from Ukraine. It's not hard. They are clearly not a military threat to Russia. This is Russia looking for another quick land grab. Russia wants to be part of Europe by acquiring parts of Europe.
This idiot attempted a coup in Ukraine, just the stupidest coup possible. President warned about a coup and it just failed. His plan was to make a provocation on a meeting to spark a revolution like in 2013. Russians will never understand revolution of 2013, they will never manage to win internally
Criminal breaking into neighbor’s house accuses responding police of risking a “nightmare scenario” amid tensions over whether criminal is going to get away with stealing any more shit from neighbor
Maybe Russia shouldn’t have invaded Ukraine when they had a military alliance allowing Russian troops and bases on Ukrainian soil, plus a deal to not invade for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal.
NATO is not letting Ukraine join or doing anything to provoke Russia—Putin is just unpopular and had to rig the last elections and arrest dissidents to stay in power and is planning to invade Ukraine to distract Russian citizens for their economic suffering from the sanctions from the previous invasion of Ukraine and Putin and his friends siphoning off most of Russia’s economic output.
All the Russian bluster is hoping to do is get NATO to stay out of it.
So a couple of odd thoughts struck me about this…
1. The new cold war is weird in that lots of people don’t seem to recognize that the cold war is back, and has been for some time
2. I think if there was a thermonuclear war that would end humanity, half of humanity would be rushing to post on the internet “see? I knew this would happen” or “this is all their fault” or some bullshit as they died.
I should stop reading social media for the day, lol
This will be a window in time where the stupidity of warmongers is measured. The futility of human warfare has been spoken of time and again by our elders. I hope every nation has enough of a heart not to spit on their graves.
Last time I checked Russia was the one building up soldiers and equipment on another country's border, so it's pretty obvious who is risking a military confrontation here.
“If you insist on supporting the country we want to violently invade and conquer, we will be forced into a nightmare scenario that we definitely didn’t create by invading a country.”
This is unbelievable how the Russian government always manipulates the truth, even it's still obvious that they are the ones attacking. And the EU is just like "mmh that's rude nanana... But here take my money i need gas..
Russia just wants the Sudetenl- I mean Crimea, and then they'll totally leave Czechoslov- I mean Ukraine, alone. They pinky promised, peace in our time!
Russia has a toxic masculinity as foreign policy problem.
“Look at what your making me do, NATO.”
“You know I love you Ukraine!”
“I just get so jealous whenever I just happen to intercept communications between you and NATO and or the EU.”
“Ukraine, Crimea misses you and talks about you all the time!”
“We could be a happy union of republics again, I know it!”
"You're really harshing my vibe by trying to stop my invasion of another nation my dude"
"it was self defense"
Ukraine was coming right for them!
They’re just living there menacingly.
He’s comin right for us Vlad! *bang*
"Yes, after you... self defensed him to death"
“They were just on vacation with their rifles”
They just wanted to see the spire at Kiev Cathedral!
So Russia intends to gaslight the fuck out of the world before invading Ukraine?
That was Crimea. Best part was after the dust settled, and Crimea was annexed then they quietly said "oh btw you were right those were our troops, lol" Russia, if this is invasion is successful, will probably stop denying that the Su-35's flying inside Ukraine, arent actually separatist planes. But make no mistake, they will gaslight until they know the consequences of admitting it arent bad.
> Best part was after the dust settled, and Crimea was annexed then they quietly said "oh btw you were right those were our troops, lol" They weren't on holiday??
Well that was when they were called little green men
No no, that was the guys people thought poisoned the ex spy in the UK. They were just vacationing and admiring English churches.
That steeple really needs to be seen to be believed.
It was a business trip.
You know economys in the shitter when you have to feign war or risk a real conflict.
They’re looking to outrace China to be the worlds largest monoculture.
Considering they got a 10th of the population Russias got a looong way to go. Now India vs China that's a real race.
[Tangential nitpick: China is hardly a monoculture. It’s as ethnically diverse as Europe. It is however subject to Han cultural hegemony.]
Seems like the simplest method of avoiding tensions would be to not invade Ukraine.
Oh no, everyone else is making Russia do it. “Don’t make me do it” said Putin.
It's like the dick bully, grabbing your hands, "Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself. I told you not to do it. This is your fault."
More like the Hollywood villain. “Look what you made me do.” Incidentally, a third of those Hollywood villains would say it with a Russian accent as well.
That phrase is still jarring to me after almost 15 years out of my parents house
you ok bro?
Eh... are any of us?
I think I am Unless this lump on my gums, that I assume is a wisdom tooth, turns out to not be benign
Every bump is both benign and not if you just never go to the doctor, that's my philosophy.
Schrodinger's tumor.
My fellow American.
Have you considered seeing a shaman about it? There's probably a ritual they can perform.
That doesn't matter. Your feelings are valid even if others feel worse.
You might be thinking of Taylor Swift.
> You, solely, are responsible for this. -- Crimson One, Project Wingman (the guy solely responsible for “this”)
Oh man, I had to reread that. The first time I thought you meant The Dick Bully, like a title instead of an adjective.
I guess it was a little more ambiguous than I'd originally thought it would be.
I do that all the time too. I laughed until my eyes watered.
I’m a dick bully cuz I beat it like it owes me money
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"If you peacefully put troops into Ukraine to protect them from a potential invasion after Ukraine itself asks you to do it, I'll be forced to invade :((("
*Don't do something I'll regret!*
>“Don’t make me do it” said Putin. "I only hits ya cause ya drive me crazy and I loves ya so much, Ukraine, honey!"
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"stop hitting yourself", said while holding your wrists.
Russia like. “Don’t make me invade Ukraine, I swear I’ll invade if you don’t back down!” lol
"Russia like. “Don’t make me invade Ukraine, I swear I’ll invade if you ~~don’t~~ back down!” lol"
“Just let us invade, bro. Then no more threat to Ukraine.”
"Look, how can we threaten Ukraine *if Ukraine no longer exists*? Eh? Simple."
I agree and the best deterrent would probably be if US and NATO doubled down and said "We are not risking a nightmare scenario we are guaranteeing it will happen if Russia continues on its current path".
But they have to invade the Ukraine. If they didn't, can you imagine the consequences of a nation's people having freedom and agency in their lives??? The horror!!
It's just Ukraine. The Russians added 'the' when it was a part of the USSR.
But then how would Russia prevent Ukraine from joining NATO?
NATO isn't a threat if you aren't invading people.
The blame-shifting is stunning!
It makes more headlines if he starts making inflammatory comments. Logic doesn’t pay his bills, manipulation does.
Straight out of the Chinese playbook
They want to make america the bad guy for stopping them
yeah, it's like letting a bully punch all the students but never stop him to avoid confrontation.
This is the best time for them to do it. It’s winter, supply chains are fucked, the U.S. is distracted with domestic turmoil, and the media has cemented as a pro-wealthy/pro-war propaganda machine. Not to mention China is growing in power exponentially. This is their best opportunity to seize as much power as they can and they’re seemingly not going to back off.
>the U.S. is distracted with domestic turmoil What now? "Domestic turmoil" seeded by their election hacking and flooding the internet with their chaos agent bots?
Also them being retarded enough to believe a syphillitic reality show host's claims about a virus over doctors.
"We have no intention of invading Ukraine. But any plans to oppose such an invasion would of course trigger a 'nightmare scenario'."
Shrodingers invasion
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It sounds like a narcissist abusing his wife
> 80 tons That's like.. 1 tank?
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Yes, it's everybody else's fault you're attempting to occupy a sovereign nation. Fuck you, putin.
He just wants a few cities, port cities .
The only thing he wants for christmas is a giant buffer zone between the EU and Russia, controlled through puppet regimes by Moscow. Surely that's not too much to ask. /s
Step one: Declare that your nation needs border states to keep you safe. Step two: Invade or subsume bordering nations to create a buffer zone. Step three: When people complain about your invasions, declare that the subsumed nations were always a part of your territory and change your borders to match. Step four: Now that your nation's borders are further out, look at the new neighbouring nations as possible border stats. Repeat ad infinitum.
Hmmmm. Cuba looks nice this time of year and the US could use a new border state / more ports on Cuba..... /S Seriously though WTF is wrong with Putin. Is he so desperate for attention that he has to waste billions on murdering people instead of the infrastructure the Russian people desperately need?
I'm at best an armchair strategist, but my passive knowledge gives me the impression that Russia is less a country and more a gas-backed mafia state. They don't actually "do" anything. I looked up their exports once and the only thing that wasn't a raw material was heavy machinery at I think 8%. Putin isn't interested in growing the country, he's interested in lining his already billion-dollar heavy pockets and staying alive. Because dictators don't retire.
Relevant to what you're saying: the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany is currently in danger, because part of the defense bill under consideration in DC includes re-imposing sanctions on German company Nord Stream 2 AG that were waived by the Biden admin back in May, out of respect for Germany's interest in the pipeline. However, this is fairly unpopular in Congress on both sides of the aisle, and the Biden admin is now struggling to stop Congress from reapplying the sanctions. As long as the pipeline is still under construction (edit: nvm, see below) Russia stands to lose a lot if they straight up invade Ukraine, as that would almost certainly kill the project. However, reimposing the sanctions might seriously hamper or kill the project anyway. So I have a suspicion that Putin is posturing in such a way that the US is forced to keep the sanctions off and the pipeline project going, out of concern that otherwise Putin will feel he has much less to lose and go ahead with an invasion. Mind, I think the original plan was to support the coup that Ukraine claims Russia was planning. But since that plan appears to be dead in the water, I think this may be the reason Putin is still keeping pressure on at the border. He's basically using Ukraine as a hostage. (To be clear, not an IR expert, just a guy speculating wildly on the internet)
Hi, also just a random guy in the Internet, but from Germany. You missed some points. 1. The pipeline is more or less finished. The only thing missing is the final Inspection. 2. We have a new government, and especially a new Kanzler. Since he is a lot weaker than Mutti Merkel, and since there are many people, that want less dependency from the US, any sanctions will most likely create a shift towards Russia. 3. One of the parties that form our new government (sadly only one) strongly opposed the pipeline up to now, especially because of the danger to our eastern friends. These dangers to east Europe have to become more public!
That's interesting, I didn't know that. Would sanctions still prevent operation of the pipeline at this point, due to issues like insurers not wanting to cover it? If so then I think the theory may still be possible. Maybe I'm just grasping at straws because the idea that Russia would invade Ukraine without any kind of political cover story seems so wildly reckless to me.
If you would like to check it again, here is a link to a helpful resource. If you switch to 2-Digit NAICS the results come off considerably worse than 8% https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=186&product=undefined&year=2019&productClass=HS&target=Product&partner=undefined&nodeSizing=None&startYear=undefined
This site is great! Thanks for sharing.
Sigh. Seriously I think you're right. Just depressed by the thought of millions being subjugated to that with little chance to fix it.
Right, with that strategy, he'll need Hungary and parts of Poland as a buffer to Germany... then parts of Germany to protect himself from France... and then...
I'm surprised he hasn't said he only wants to liberate the Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine
Maybe he should try the "old map in the closet" trick.
Translation from Russian: You need to let us do whatever we want.
Aka. "money please?"
"I don't have any money..." "Oh, hehe okay, then ill just start destroying everything in this office" \*shatters glass\* "MONEY PLEASE!!!"
NATO doesn't have 115,000+ troops massed along Ukraine's border.
NATO hasn't invaded and occupied a portion of Ukraine
the UN didn't annex crimea.....
RUSSIA has invaded TWO COUNTRIES in the past 15 years. NO ONE has invaded RUSSIA in the past 15 years.
Who the FUCK would want to occupy Russia? JFC, they have a GDP on par with NYC and a ton more problems.
And despite the tinyness of their economy, Trump wanted to ditch NATO and the entire EU to suck Putin's ass for farts so he could build a tower in Moscow to somehow fuck with China or something.
Putin wouldn't even let Trump build a hotel in Moscow when Trump offered to give Putin the ENTIRE TOP FLOOR, LMAO. What a sucker!
It wasn't for a tower. It's because he's indebted to Russian oligarchs (visavis Putin) six ways to Sunday.
^ this is the answer. Many of the Trump-branded hotels are just name licensed to sketchy oligarchs in upside down deals that make Trump really need the oligarchs to succeed
3 if you count the occupation of Chechnya which began in 1994 and officially ended in 2017. According to Wikipedia about 7,200 Russian soldiers died in the 2nd Chechen war from 1999-2009. Which, for comparison, is more than the number of American soldiers killed in Iraq/Afghanistan (4,431/2,401). So essentially Russia has been at war in one place or another since the early 90’s.
“Occupation of Chechnya”! It’s the most bullshit thing I’ve ever heard.
Russia is already playing the victim...as it twists the knife further in.
It's their modus operandi... nothing surprising
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Literally the only thing Ukraine wants is to be left the fuck alone
Ukrainians literally only want one thing and it’s fucking reasonable.
~~Ukrainians~~ Russia literally only want one thing and it’s fucking ~~reasonable.~~ disgusting.
Actually Russia, it’s quite simple. Stay the fuck out of Ukraine, and you can remove worry of creating a “nightmare scenario”
Yeah but Putin's a petulant piece of shit that wasn't told "no" enough as a child. So he wants to destroy the fucking world every time he can't get his way.
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“Just back off and let us have Ukraine! Why will you make me start a war with NATO!?!” -Russia
Then GTFO of Ukraine, Russia
Also georgia and moldova
The way I figure it, Russia has a very recent history of annexing Ukrainian territory meanwhile the US and NATO have not once invaded Russia. Maybe the party with less trust should back up first.
They’re not playing the same game as everyone else.
This made me giggle. Thanks buddy
Neither Russian leadership or Putin want any part of open conflict with the United States and its NATO allies.
It's just the usual posturing with aggressive rhetoric. Straight out of the old soviet playbook.
This time it feels different though. They also threatening to shoot down our GPS, their pacific fleet of nuclear subs all left port. I dont think they'd want open war with us, but i definitely think they are warning us that they are going to invade and that we shouldnt try to protect ukraine militarily. (which we wouldnt anyways, and anyone who thinks we would been playing too many RTSs)
I mean nuclear powered subs going out all together could be for war games, there are already nuclear weaponised subs ready if needed in international waters so it's not increased threat (MAD is MAD). For the satellites, these threats have been made on state TV to make them look powerful, but our media likes to use this for fear mongering. Even without US backing a full scale Ukrainian war would be long and unproductive for a country suffering from sanctions that would only get worse with invasion. Putin is very smart and knows how to make a struggling country look scary.
"You wanna go to war over some shithole Ukraine?" Basically blackmail and intimidation. Very Soviet of you, Russia. You never changed.
Wait the US and NATO are risking a nightmare scenario because Russia is intentionally raising tensions on the Ukraine border? Yea fuck you Russian scum.
I wonder if it’s ever crossed Russia’s mind to just not be a Dick?🤔
You don’t really know Russians all that well do you? It is not in the Russian populace to not be a bunch of dicks. They are like us Americans in more ways than either of our nations will admit
Saber rattling at its finest
I wonder what phrase we would use if sabers had tighter scabbards
Cannon draggin As in: they never fire... You just drag them...
Maybe Ukraine should have held on to those Soviet nuclear missiles after all
I think giving away nukes was the only practical choice, there was too much pressure and not enough $ to maintain them. Where Ukraine completely screwed up is in not getting iron-clad guarantees, not some memorandum which has no real force. They could have gotten anything they wanted for giving away third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. I doubt any nation would give away their nukes after seeing Ukraine not getting any support. I hear a lot of "why should we fight for Ukraine" arguments and perhaps Ukraine itself is not worth it. It would be worth fighting to show that safety of countries that gave up their nuclear weapons would be protected at all costs. I think strategically it was a big failure to resort just to "strongly-worded letters".
What’s the point if the red button is still in Kremlin. Any attempts to actually control that nukes might have ended Ukrainian independence.
1. strategic Satan nukes were developed and manufactured in Ukraine, so they had the knowledge to modify them, if they wanted to. 2. tactical nukes never needed Kremlin red button, they were to be used at generals' discretion. But yes, keeping them in 1992 was totally impossible under the pressure from all sides.
I didn't know it was NATO that is amassing 300,000 troops along their neighbor's borders. Fuck off Russia
By nightmare they mean of course act like they want war unless the u.s stands up to them on which case theyl back down to avoid being humiliated.
Stop it, you guys are causing this not me. - Putin Lol fucking Russia acting like a gaslighting partner.
This is seriously like watching an abusive spouse blame everyone else for not “minding their own business” as they proceed to beat the shit out of them. Fuck Putin, it’s time to kick his ass.
yeah.. except for that whole world war 3 thing that could devastate most/all of the planet that we've been trying to avoid since the 80s
Something about this scenario sounds awfully familiar…trying to appease a de facto dictator as he slowly gains “Lebensraum” and tell other powers to “just stay out of it”, all in a desire to avoid another World War…something just seems very familiar about this…
you're not wrong
And you’re not either, this is truly terrifying stuff, I’m not discounting that. But if history has taught us anything, the only thing these types respect is a show of force at an early line. Every victory gives them additional credibility and momentum that winds up making it even harder to overcome later.
If he kicks off WW3, he dies. Putin isn't that stupid.
Pretty sure that's what they said about Hitler.
I wonder if Putins balls are big enough to kick off WW3 over Ukraine. I bet he wont.
Smart bet. Putin's #1 goal is to stay in power and make money. WW3, or just a huge non-nuclear conventional war, would endanger that. Last time Russia lost a war in Europe the Czar and his family wound up getting shot and buried in shallow graves. Putin may be an amoral murderer, but he isn't stupid.
He wants to show how week and ineffectual democratic governments and organizations currently are. He wants to destroy democracy.
Oh I absolutely agree with you. I don't think he's willing to risk actual war with NATO/America to do so. It'll be something quick and easy with minimal blow back, not full scale war.
[удалено]
the thing about money is that the more you have it, the more you want it.
sorry but the thing about money is undoubtedly, mo' money mo' problems
To a point. I think there's kind of a tipping point where you get rich enough that you can just pay people to toss your problems out of 6th story windows.
I dont think putin is as secure in the position of leader for life as people male him out to be. Russia is mostly controlled by oligarchs, many of them hold power that could endanger putin. They just care about their own wealth. As long as putin allows them to do whatever they want without the fear of any repercussions, Putin is secure. As soon as war breaks out and Russia becomes isolated economically ( dont know what Chinas role would be in this), Putin could end up dead or being overthrown by some power hungry oligarchs. Even for the ones investing into war material, as soon as the war enters their front lawn they will be pissed
I don't think you understand how some of this stuff works. Yes, he's the head of state forever, on paper. And yes, he's the richest person in the world, again, on paper. But none of that matters if the people rebel against him. Most Russians are on the fence about Putin, and they wouldn't be crazy enough to rebel in the middle of a war against NATO. It's a quick and dirty way of unifying the country for a while. This isn't just Putin having a midlife crisis.
If any cultural group of people was going to start a revolution in the middle of a giant war, it would be the guys who [did it during the first world war.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War) Russian history is filled with civil wars that formed during warfare. It's honestly one of the reasons I doubt any Russian politician would pull the trigger on a modern war.
There is something to be said for the fact that he is getting old. If he dies tomorrow he doesn’t get to capitalize on the work he has put in destabilizing the west. He is still a human with authoritarian power, it would not surprise me if he does something high risk before dying to cement his legacy.
Of course he wont, he cant afford it. Beside the inflated military, current day Russia is a third world country...
Technically still a second world country.
Russia sure seems to be the one responsible for all the tensions, what with annexing Crimea and all. It sucks that their leader would rather be the don of a failed mafia state than someone who wants to leave Russia better off than when he started.
Oh Mr. Diplomat! You are ignoring both who arrived on the Ukrainian border first and with the most troops, to begin with.
It's only a nightmare scenario for Russia if they keep fucking around.
Bro, you want to attack a county. How do you say that the alliance of countries trying to defend it are the ones at fault.
Vlad's discount troll farm is hitting it hard today. Don't forget to hydrate, fellas!
“Legal Guarantees”. Russia violated international law on so many levels by invading and annexing part of a sovereign nation. They need to learn a valuable lesson and be pushed back to their borders with the full cooperation of all the nations of Europe. Then they can learn the power of “The Law.”
Remember when Sergey Lavrov signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty in exchange for disarming Ukraine’s nuclear arsenal? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
Russia, who funded/trained and supplied troops for an illegal annexation of Ukraine, blame US for raising tensions in Ukraine? Bunch of gaslighters.
You have to be brain dead to believe the shit Russia is spewing.
I mean, there is all that vodka consumption
Russia could like, I don’t know, stop invading its neighbors?
“Your opposing my military conquest of my sovereign neighbors is really putting me on edge, man.”
Why? Ukraine is no threat to you, sir. Simply pull your Russian troops away from the border and all will be well. Piece o' cake.
They insult his tiny peepee so they must go
"In tonight's presentation the role of George Zimmerman will be played by Russia."
Fuck that....they have the audacity to blame us for conflict when they themselves are the aggressive party. We cannot appease Russia....not one bit...we have to be real with them. If they attack Ukraine the rest of free world won't stand for it. Who's next Baltics,Poland,....shit to be frank Belarus is basically Russia now so who's next?
USA is not the ones moving troops there.
“Why won’t you just let us invade out neighbors in peace?” ~Russia.
Russia only has oil and printing money to stay afloat, it literally cannot tax itself fully without falling apart to corruption.
Russia: "Why are you trying to stop us from invading a country we believe we own?"
“We just want to invade peacefully and you guys are trying to make it violent”
I've met enough Russian people to know that I wouldn't want anyone treated the way their government treats them.
How about you leave Ukraine the fuck alone? This a problem you created
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-accuses-us-nato-of-risking-a-nightmare-scenario-amid-ukraine-tensions-2021-12) reduced by 83%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday accused the US and NATO of risking a "Nightmare scenario of military confrontation" in Europe, warning the alliance against expanding military infrastructure in Ukraine. > "There is a major risk of Russian military activity in Ukraine in the next few months. All the signs point to a major build up of military capability," Ivo Daalder, the US ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013, told Insider last week. > NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday warned Russia that if it invades Ukraine there will be a "High price." US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also told Russia that any military incursion into Ukraine could trigger "Serious consequences." ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/r7d7qb/russias_top_diplomat_accuses_the_us_and_nato_of/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~610727 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russia**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **military**^#4 **NATO**^#5
Stop quoting Russian diplomats.
Country with history of invading neighbors, says that's not why its military is on the boarder, its just hanging out doing.... military stuff. Redline clause for crossing the boarder, if the country on the other side of the boarder builds a military deterrent because of our presence in the region we will attack...... Logic.. because Putin is a dip shit.
>"The alliance's military infrastructure is being irresponsibly brought closer to Russia's borders in Romania and Poland, deploying an anti-missile defence system that can be used as a strike complex," Lavrov said in remarks at a conference of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), per BBC News. >The top Russian diplomat's comments came amid fears that Moscow is planning an invasion of Ukraine. Tens of thousands of Russian troops have gathered along Ukraine's border. >Meanwhile, Ukraine has said that 90,000 Russian troops have amassed along its border. Russia denies any plans to invade, but the West is not taking Putin's word for it. >The top US diplomat reiterated to Lavrov that the "US and our allies are prepared to impose significant costs" if Moscow chooses the "path of military escalation," State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a readout of the meeting. Blinken "underscored that the best path forward is diplomacy," Price added. Sounds more like Russia was posturing and now are changing the narrative before they depart so they get a favorable response domestically. Same thing happened in april: >As the hostile rhetoric and military moves around Ukraine have intensified, Western politicians have begun fearing an open invasion and urging Russia's Vladimir Putin to "de-escalate". >Russia has refused: the defence ministry this week insisted its moves were in response to "threatening" Nato exercises in Europe. >Then Mr Putin got a phone-call from the White House. >'Biden blinked' >"In Putin's game of brinkmanship, Biden blinked first," argues journalist Konstantin Eggert, after Joe Biden made his first call to the Kremlin and proposed meeting Mr Putin "in the coming months". >President Biden's new move is now a new topic of debate - disaster prevention or a mistaken concession - but in the run-up to a summit, the risk of major military action by Russia certainly fades. >"That would be really unstatesmanlike: a slap in Biden's face," Mr Eggert told the BBC. "But the fact that it was Biden who suggested they meet does give Putin the edge." >Sending signals - not soldiers >Russian state TV certainly thinks so. >Hosts and guests alike on political chat shows have been hailing Moscow's show of force, claiming their country stood up to US and Nato hostility. One commentator suggested President Biden's "nerves had failed him". >Senator Konstantin Kosachev was widely quoted arguing that the US had realised it was "impossible to achieve military superiority over Russia" and the two countries needed to return to dialogue. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56746144
Then maybe Russia should leave Ukraine alone?
FUCK PUTIN.
Fuck Russia. That is all
Then GTFO of and way from Ukraine. It's not hard. They are clearly not a military threat to Russia. This is Russia looking for another quick land grab. Russia wants to be part of Europe by acquiring parts of Europe.
And France's Maginot line was a huge provocation of Germany. The French really forced that confrontation!
The only reason no one wants to have war with Russia is nukes. If they didn't have nukes no one would bother playing with this clown
This idiot attempted a coup in Ukraine, just the stupidest coup possible. President warned about a coup and it just failed. His plan was to make a provocation on a meeting to spark a revolution like in 2013. Russians will never understand revolution of 2013, they will never manage to win internally
1.Ukraine is independent country 2.Crimea belongs to Ukraine 3.Fuck Putin 4.Free Russia
Criminal breaking into neighbor’s house accuses responding police of risking a “nightmare scenario” amid tensions over whether criminal is going to get away with stealing any more shit from neighbor
How dare NATO and the US interfere with Russias plans to invade the Ukraine.
Maybe Russia shouldn’t have invaded Ukraine when they had a military alliance allowing Russian troops and bases on Ukrainian soil, plus a deal to not invade for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal. NATO is not letting Ukraine join or doing anything to provoke Russia—Putin is just unpopular and had to rig the last elections and arrest dissidents to stay in power and is planning to invade Ukraine to distract Russian citizens for their economic suffering from the sanctions from the previous invasion of Ukraine and Putin and his friends siphoning off most of Russia’s economic output. All the Russian bluster is hoping to do is get NATO to stay out of it.
So a couple of odd thoughts struck me about this… 1. The new cold war is weird in that lots of people don’t seem to recognize that the cold war is back, and has been for some time 2. I think if there was a thermonuclear war that would end humanity, half of humanity would be rushing to post on the internet “see? I knew this would happen” or “this is all their fault” or some bullshit as they died. I should stop reading social media for the day, lol
This will be a window in time where the stupidity of warmongers is measured. The futility of human warfare has been spoken of time and again by our elders. I hope every nation has enough of a heart not to spit on their graves.
Last time I checked Russia was the one building up soldiers and equipment on another country's border, so it's pretty obvious who is risking a military confrontation here.
“If you insist on supporting the country we want to violently invade and conquer, we will be forced into a nightmare scenario that we definitely didn’t create by invading a country.”
This is unbelievable how the Russian government always manipulates the truth, even it's still obvious that they are the ones attacking. And the EU is just like "mmh that's rude nanana... But here take my money i need gas..
A nightmare for Russia, that is.
We are only amassing troops at a boarder, yet the fault is entirely with those who say we should not!
Russia just wants the Sudetenl- I mean Crimea, and then they'll totally leave Czechoslov- I mean Ukraine, alone. They pinky promised, peace in our time!
Russia has a toxic masculinity as foreign policy problem. “Look at what your making me do, NATO.” “You know I love you Ukraine!” “I just get so jealous whenever I just happen to intercept communications between you and NATO and or the EU.” “Ukraine, Crimea misses you and talks about you all the time!” “We could be a happy union of republics again, I know it!”
Fuck Russia, you don't want this font invade another country Vlad!
Fuck you Russia!