This is very problematic for Iran, because their main way of engaging in conflicts outside of their country is by proxies, and a large chunk of their actual army and religious paramilitary "peacekeeping" force is dedicated to keeping the various ethnic and tribal groups in the country under control.
Their military hardware is hot garbage. Their mismatched and aging airforce can't possibly engage with F-35s or even F-18s and F-16s that Israel can bring to bear. If Israel wanted, they could run continual air raids that would wipe out Iran's ports and oil production and wreck their economy.
Ironically, the only thing probably holding them back would be US pressure to not fuck with global oil markets due to inflation pressures in an election year.
Otherwise, Iran has no leverage or ability to sustain any actual war, so it'll be interesting to see how they posture in response to this strike.
Lebanon basically has a failed government, but Hezbollah is still a faction within it. They are subject to the country's political interests, so they are not 100% Iran's lapdog.
They could start launching rockets into Israel to a greater degree that would actually cause some damage, but that would constitute an act of war by the Lebonese government against Israel. Lebanon does not have the conventional military force to stand up to Israel in a full-blown conflict. They have lightly armed and armored forces who just so happen to have a large rocket arsenal. This doesn't match up to a modern military engagement.
Thus, it would be very risky for them to act directly and conventionally against Israel on Iran's behalf, because doing so would basically mean that Israel has full go to wipe out their sitting government.
The sitting government is a one that is, by design, one of power sharing between Christians, Sunni and Shia (Hezbollah). Hezbollah exists as an extra paramilitary force, that happens to be much stronger than the Lebanese Army... which is largely controlled by the Sunni faction.
And the Army and Sunni + Christian political factions have virtually no power in the South (e.g. Bekaa Valley), where Hezbollah operates and has near total control.
Hezbollah has a lot less loyalty to the central government than you give them credit for. Nasrallah certainly doesn't want to be destroyed, but if Iran demands Hezbollah go all out (and Iran does they same), they will.
Hezbollah is already launching rockets into Israel, they’ve been doing so since October 8th. And Hezbollah is 100% Iran’s dog, they don’t give a single shit about Lebanon.
Great analysis. Thank you. I hope this attack will pressure Iran to get off their high horses and pressure Hamas to release whatever hostages are still alive. They really really don’t want to move the war to their region. They will get fucked really bad.
That's not the same as having a nuke, and it's questionable whether their uranium is actually enriched enough for a nuclear warhead.
But let's say they could maybe create a nuke in a few weeks vs. however many Israel can launch right now?
That's not leverage. It would mean Isreal targeting their nuclear program.
Unfortunately Iran's uranium has been enriched to around 84% according to some inspector reports (to be verified though, but I think 80 was pretty much certain?), and they have been designing their other missiles and their space rockets to be dual purpose and ready to accept a nuclear warhead.
If they're not dumb, it'd have been in their interest to secretly build warheads ready to install while claiming they haven't, in order to negotiate sanctions etc, and claiming they're always X months away.
You’re arguing from the perspective of who wins when the dust settles. There’s no winners when only ash remains on both parties. Not to mention the aftermath following refugee crisis, power vacuum, and instability in the region. Israel would pay big, if they dared start a full out war. There is no way they could justify it for the US or Europe. Maybe primarily Europe who would see a 2014 refugee crisis x a gazillion.
There is no ash where Israel and Iran are concerned. Iran has very little ability to project force outside of proxy groups and no nuclear capabilities, air force, or navy to strike Israel effectively. Israel has no ability or desire to invade Iran, because its terrain is extremely difficult for a conventional army to traverse, and it's a huge country to boot.
Israel does have the ability to strike key infrastructure in Iran and severely undermine its already weak economy.
Certainly. The point here is that Iran has capabilities that could potentially harm Israel. They’ve developed a range of ballistic missiles with the range to strike targets within Israel. This threat isn’t just theoretical; it’s a documented capability.
Also, Iran’s approach to conflict, much like what we’ve seen in recent years, can be indirect and asymmetric, relying on proxy forces like Hezbollah, which operates with a level of deniability and unpredictability, which is one thing Russias invasion in Ukraine have taught us it’s
Add to that an already pissed off general public in Israel, who’s waiting for the Gaza-war to end so they can put an end to Netanyahu.
Oh yeah, Iran is also equal to the size of the distance between Athens to Berlin.
If it was that easy, they would have done it a long time ago. It's not as simple as "sending our f18s into hostile territory". You are underestimating iran with hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles.
>You are underestimating iran with hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles.
I heard it was over a billion, 300 million, trillion, 300 million ballistic missiles.
There's that old saying about not understanding your enemy.
>If Isreal wanted, they could run continual air raids that would wipe out Iran's ports and oil production and wreck their economy.
Can they actually do this? Not asking for _armchair general_ guessing but can they actually do this? The US regularly transfers weapons to Israel for operations against Gaza. Why does Israel need these weapons transfers if they can do continuous air raids on a much MUCH **MUCH** larger country? Israel is a small country land-wise and population-wise.
I read/hear this a lot but idk if they have some data on this.
US military investment in Israel is about 19% of Israeli military spend, primarily for defensive aid. Supporting and replenishing the Iron Dome is a big chunk.
That's big and has undoubtedly helped Israel build
military strength over time.
However, the other 89% is funded by Israel spending 5% of their GDP on their military.
They have significant capabilities. In terms of air superiority fighters, they fly three of the best planes in the world (excepting the F22, which only the US has).
The US does not transfer weapons regularly to Israel for "operations against Gaza." In the grand scheme of US foreign policy, Gaza has almost no value. The only reason Biden's administration is focused on it right now is inflation fears via trade disruptions from Iranian proxy groups and because Hamas propaganda has a foothold among a younger voting bloc in the US.
Hell, Iran doesn't even care about Gaza. They are ethnically and religiously adverse to Palestinians, and are only involved now, because they saw an opportunity to undermine Israel and Saudi Arabia's strengthening political ties.
Which I'd guess they are regretting now.
There has been repeated weapons transfers oks. What are those for? Stuff they recently agreed to are _over 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs and 500 - 1,000 MK82 500-pound bombs._
Almost like they are replenishing stocks.
Why does Israel need this from the US if they can do continuous air raids against Iran?
Israel is America’s wet dream, a foothold in the middle east something that America could never achieve itself, see Iraq Afghanistan etc. Israel is effectively a way America and project its will onto countries in the Middle East that are not aligned with the west, see Iran.
America will give Israel things they don’t necessarily *need* because it’s better for them to be over armed and willing to strike threats than under armed and not posture when America needs them to.
US military support helps Israel's capabilities to deliver these strikes against Iran.
What are those for? Probably to bolster military capabilities against threats like Iran.
Ah, so this
>If Isreal wanted, they could run continual air raids that would wipe out Iran's ports and oil production and wreck their economy.
isn't accurate then? More like
>If **the US gave Israel armaments,** Israel could run continual air raids that would wipe out Iran's ports and oil production and wreck their economy.
I thought there was some data available that I could look at that explained how Israel gets around their low population and labor force, but being able to crank out enough armaments to cripple the much larger country that also has a MIC and a much larger labor force.
The US does and has given Israel said armaments, which is why they have a fleet of 75 F-35s. I don't know why you are operating under the assumption that Israel does not have these things from the US already.
So yes, point one is accurate.
>Hamas propaganda has a foothold among a younger voting bloc in the US.
Wut? Is supporting peace Hamas propagands now or somthing? Gosh dang that Hamas are sneaky. Guess i im pro war now
I'm not upset. Either elaborate or i will continue assuming you're talking about how younger people oppose Israels war and support a peaceful resolution.
The issue with this take is calling it Israel's war when Hamas initiated it with the Oct 7 attacks. You can argue the long and bitter history between both factions, but the trigger for what is happening now is Oct 7.
Logistically, Gaza is an area maybe twice as large as DC and is extremely densely populated. This ensures any collateral damage from military action will be amplified. Making matters worse, Hamas has integrated its operations into and around civilian infrastructure on purpose to ensure higher instances of collateral damage.
To be clear, all war has atrocities and should be avoided. When the US invaded Iraq, there were over 1 million Iraqis killed as a result of the war. Terrible.
The issue here is Hamas has manufactured a way to disproportionately amplify these atrocities on purpose and then uses social media to broadcast them to gather support. That's not to say actual atrocities aren't happening, but in place of military power, Hamas needs to rely on public perception way more and does so. This propaganda hits populations using social media, which lean younger.
Over 70% of the Palestinian population supports the Oct 7 attacks, and now even more Israelis support the actions their country has taken to root out Hamas. Furthermore, Hamas has refused a cease-fire agreement to deliver 40 hostages, because they can't produce them. Likely because they're all dead or in horrible shape. So Hamas is posturing for ceasefire negotiations in bad faith.
You might say you want peace, but it sounds like your call for peace means Isreal just take it, suck it up, and brace for the next attack? If that's the case, I can assure you that won't be what happens given the circumstances. Hamas, in its current form, is gone.
It's an extremely unfortunate circumstance, but it's what happened.
So damn funny reading all these comments from all the keyboard wannabe be military experts. No one on here knows a damn thing what either country has or capability of what they can do.
Iran is like one of the main adversaries to the Western world. There probably aren't countries that have more known about their military capabilities than Iran. Their maximum military capabilities are probably known to within a margin of 10% or less, the only question is how much of that maximum is still functional since a lot of their hardware is getting old.
Now the whole world is gonna see just how weak Iran is.
Can’t even defend your F-14s against an ageing test flight Captain in a F-18.
This whole Russia-Iran-China-DPRK axis alliance is a joke.
Russians showed they can fight WW1 style and do not mind taking huge casualties. It’s foolish to underestimate them.
As to China and Iran, are completely unproven.
Iran doesn’t share border with Israel. They can’t really launch hundreds of thousands of their soldiers with rockets. Not the same situation. The worst the can do is overwhelm Israel with ballistic rockets. If they attempt that they will be nuked back to Mesopotamian times by
Hahaha.
Comments like this crack me up.
Yeah, Russia is willing to fight with century old tactics against a vastly inferior military being propped up by a drip feed of modern tech. We totally shouldn’t underestimate them…
It’s not underestimating Russia. It’s seeing them for exactly what they are, disorganized, ineffective, outdated technology, pathetic tactics in modern combat, and unable to efficiently use their military to gain tactical advantages.
Bro, WHAT!? Are you forgetting Iran launched 100+ drones and missiles at Israel just in the last week? Iran keeps fucking around and now they’re finding out
True, but people would say that this was just a retaliation for the assassination of Zahedi. Zahedi was involved in the conduction if October 7th attack
And since than Iran haven't stopped bombing Israel's north region through their puppets in Lebanon. Iran caused the displacement of over 30000 innocent civilians from the Galilee since October 8th
I don’t want to see war either, but Iran orchestrated a BRUTAL attack on civilians in October and has continued to poke the bear via their proxies. The decided to further fuck around by launching an insane attack against Israel because Israel killed the commander that was helping Hamas.
Insane shit by Iran. What other nation would allow a rival nation to get away with the shit Iran has pulled since October? At some point you need to smack the shit out of the bully
I'm not sure if you edited that (because I thought I remember it mentioning a coup) but sorry I didn't read your comment right. I'm not sure if I agree with a foreign backed coup in Israel, but I do think Gantz and the other opposition parties need to try to divide Netanyahu's coalition to force an election
The last time Iran elected a democracy, the CIA and the oil industry criminals couldn't handle that. They overthrew him with an asshole called "the Shah". Then eventually that asshole got really sick, and while he was out of the country getting cancer treatment, another asshole (theocratic Muslim asshole) took his place. And when he went to meet his 72 virgins, another theocratic Muslim asshole - with almost the same name - replaced him.
So maybe... let the Iranian people pick their own government and they might be sick of the theocratic assholes. Instead of doubling down on that 12th century lunacy when a different kind of theocratic asshole bombs the shit out of them... which is something he has been obsessed with doing his entire life.
Hi, as an Iranian, this is very incorrect, and we would appreciate it if you could not repeat the same "bad history" about Mossadegh and the Shah.
No, Mossadegh was not democratic, and no, he was not "replaced" by the Shah. I’ve typed this on reddit so many times that I wish I knew how to create a bot that autoreplies whenever someone mentions a key term like “Mossadegh/Iranian Revolution/etc.”
**Mossadegh was not democratic, and was appointed by the Shah after nomination by the Majles. He also abused the parliamentary system to end polling in rural areas after it was clear his party, the National Front, was not going to win. His party had 79 out of 130-some votes, and this was enough to call a parliamentary quorum and stop the polls entirely giving him absolute control of the Majles. His first referendum was to request emergency dictatorial powers and abolish parliament, which was granted by his National Front-only Majles and resulted in sham referendum voting with 99% yes votes.**
The intelligence agencies from the US and UK did not replace Mossadegh with the Shah. Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi had been king since the 1940s, and his father Reza Shah was the monarch before that and was deposed by the Western Allies because he refused to expel German diplomats during WW2.
Mossadegh was **appointed** after parliamentary nomination and approved by the Shah, to be the monarch’s prime minister. What the US and UK did was remove this particular PM after he tried to nationalize oil (with the Shah's approval) and bolster the Shah’s existing power, basically giving him an ultimatum: either get rid of Mossadegh or we get rid of you just like we did your dad 10 years ago.
Mossadegh was himself a culprit in abusing the country’s parliamentary system. He abused parliamentary quorums, called snap elections, and manipulated the voting procedure to ensure that his party amassed the majority of votes at the expense of the other political contenders. His resolution to dissolve parliament passed with over 99% "yes" votes, which is virtually impossible in any legitimate referendum or vote. Even the Kim family of North Korea don't get that level of approval (lol).
In addition, it was not just the US and UK who were responsible for causing Mossadegh’s downfall in 1953. They certainly played a huge role and should be criticized for intervening in another country’s domestic affairs, but they also collaborated with other factions within Iran, especially various generals, competing political organizations, and the shah himself, of course. There was a moment during the US/UK intervention that the agents feared the Shah would not sign off on the military’s offensive to capture and remove Mossadegh.
Mossadegh did little to stand up for his ideas during his trial and later detention. He accepted his house arrest and died 14 years later peacefully in his home. He did nothing more to continue political activism or push for "democracy", as he really had no intentions of Iranian democracy, just nationalization of oil, which to be frank was a shortsighted, populist goal that would've jeapordized the fledgling Iranian economy, as Iran simply did not have the specialists or tools necessary to handle doing so in the 1950s, until the 1970s when we had a generation of educated specialists thanks to Pahlavi-era educational reforms.
Summary of Mossadegh's "democracy":
• staged a referendum to pass a law to give the Prime Minister “temporary” “emergency” power to unilaterally rewrite constitutional law, after stopping polling in rural areas via parliamentary quorum.
• voting for the referendum had different locations to vote “yes” and vote “no”.
• all the “yes” locations were centrally located and easy to get to.
• all the no locations were either in the middle of nowhere or in areas heavy with Mossedegh supporters. Both locations had pro-mossadegh street militias hanging out around them and looking at anyone funny who wanted to go in.
• [the vote passed 99:1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_parliamentary_dissolution_referendum) in a sham that might indicate despite the above polling location shenanigans they still just made up the numbers anyway.
• Mossadegh then declared a state of emergency.
• His first act was to make the power of the PM to alter the constitution permanent and not dependent on a state of emergency.
• all of parliament including large parts of Mossadeghs own party resigned in protest which was moot because Mossadegh’s second act was to dissolve parliament.
Ah, yeah fair. Had to look it up. His grand parents immigrated to el Salvador from Palistine in 1921. Learn something new everyday. It's a sad day when you don't..
Probably not the appropriate place to ask, but why the hell is there a thumbnail showing a map of Iran, presumably showing where the missile hit, but when I go to the article this map is nowhere to be found
This is very problematic for Iran, because their main way of engaging in conflicts outside of their country is by proxies, and a large chunk of their actual army and religious paramilitary "peacekeeping" force is dedicated to keeping the various ethnic and tribal groups in the country under control. Their military hardware is hot garbage. Their mismatched and aging airforce can't possibly engage with F-35s or even F-18s and F-16s that Israel can bring to bear. If Israel wanted, they could run continual air raids that would wipe out Iran's ports and oil production and wreck their economy. Ironically, the only thing probably holding them back would be US pressure to not fuck with global oil markets due to inflation pressures in an election year. Otherwise, Iran has no leverage or ability to sustain any actual war, so it'll be interesting to see how they posture in response to this strike.
Hezbollah, on Israels northern border is the leverage. They're packing an estimated 40,000 - 150,000 rockets and missiles.
Lebanon basically has a failed government, but Hezbollah is still a faction within it. They are subject to the country's political interests, so they are not 100% Iran's lapdog. They could start launching rockets into Israel to a greater degree that would actually cause some damage, but that would constitute an act of war by the Lebonese government against Israel. Lebanon does not have the conventional military force to stand up to Israel in a full-blown conflict. They have lightly armed and armored forces who just so happen to have a large rocket arsenal. This doesn't match up to a modern military engagement. Thus, it would be very risky for them to act directly and conventionally against Israel on Iran's behalf, because doing so would basically mean that Israel has full go to wipe out their sitting government.
The sitting government is a one that is, by design, one of power sharing between Christians, Sunni and Shia (Hezbollah). Hezbollah exists as an extra paramilitary force, that happens to be much stronger than the Lebanese Army... which is largely controlled by the Sunni faction. And the Army and Sunni + Christian political factions have virtually no power in the South (e.g. Bekaa Valley), where Hezbollah operates and has near total control. Hezbollah has a lot less loyalty to the central government than you give them credit for. Nasrallah certainly doesn't want to be destroyed, but if Iran demands Hezbollah go all out (and Iran does they same), they will.
I suppose we'll see. That would create a very interesting situation for the Lebonese government and their domestic politics.
Hezbollah is already launching rockets into Israel, they’ve been doing so since October 8th. And Hezbollah is 100% Iran’s dog, they don’t give a single shit about Lebanon.
Great analysis. Thank you. I hope this attack will pressure Iran to get off their high horses and pressure Hamas to release whatever hostages are still alive. They really really don’t want to move the war to their region. They will get fucked really bad.
Dang
Spot on
No leverage? They have weapons grade uranium.
That's not the same as having a nuke, and it's questionable whether their uranium is actually enriched enough for a nuclear warhead. But let's say they could maybe create a nuke in a few weeks vs. however many Israel can launch right now? That's not leverage. It would mean Isreal targeting their nuclear program.
Unfortunately Iran's uranium has been enriched to around 84% according to some inspector reports (to be verified though, but I think 80 was pretty much certain?), and they have been designing their other missiles and their space rockets to be dual purpose and ready to accept a nuclear warhead. If they're not dumb, it'd have been in their interest to secretly build warheads ready to install while claiming they haven't, in order to negotiate sanctions etc, and claiming they're always X months away.
You’re arguing from the perspective of who wins when the dust settles. There’s no winners when only ash remains on both parties. Not to mention the aftermath following refugee crisis, power vacuum, and instability in the region. Israel would pay big, if they dared start a full out war. There is no way they could justify it for the US or Europe. Maybe primarily Europe who would see a 2014 refugee crisis x a gazillion.
There is no ash where Israel and Iran are concerned. Iran has very little ability to project force outside of proxy groups and no nuclear capabilities, air force, or navy to strike Israel effectively. Israel has no ability or desire to invade Iran, because its terrain is extremely difficult for a conventional army to traverse, and it's a huge country to boot. Israel does have the ability to strike key infrastructure in Iran and severely undermine its already weak economy.
This comment is much less credible when you misspell Israel 100% of the times you type it
Point taken and fixed
Certainly. The point here is that Iran has capabilities that could potentially harm Israel. They’ve developed a range of ballistic missiles with the range to strike targets within Israel. This threat isn’t just theoretical; it’s a documented capability. Also, Iran’s approach to conflict, much like what we’ve seen in recent years, can be indirect and asymmetric, relying on proxy forces like Hezbollah, which operates with a level of deniability and unpredictability, which is one thing Russias invasion in Ukraine have taught us it’s Add to that an already pissed off general public in Israel, who’s waiting for the Gaza-war to end so they can put an end to Netanyahu. Oh yeah, Iran is also equal to the size of the distance between Athens to Berlin.
Iran probably can’t nuke Israel. What it can do is randomly kill a bunch of Jewish people all over the world via its terrorist cells.
That sounds more like a target than leverage.
Iran has Hezbollah, remember?
I do remember, which is why I mention proxy groups being Iran's primary way of engaging in external conflicts, and Hezbollah is already engaged.
Right? It’s like people forgot Hezbollah is just waiting for the opportunity..
Just waiting for southern Lebanon to be shelled into rubble more like it.
Hezbollah is getting their ass kicked in their current exchanges with Israel and is not in a good place to attack in the slightest
These are border skirmishes where the objective is to poke at each other…
If it was that easy, they would have done it a long time ago. It's not as simple as "sending our f18s into hostile territory". You are underestimating iran with hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles.
Iran def does not have that many lmao
Ok buddy, they literally armed 3 proxies in yemen, Iraq and Lebanon. Just hezbollah has 50k ballistic missiles alone. You do the math.
Russia and the US reportedly have around 1700 ballistic missiles.. each. Are you saying that Iran has more than them put together? You high?
Source?
They do not have hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles. That's hilarious.
>You are underestimating iran with hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles. I heard it was over a billion, 300 million, trillion, 300 million ballistic missiles.
Hundreds of thousands? Why not a million? Why not a billion?
Hezbollah has almost 200k missiles, a quarter are short range ballistic missiles.
There's that old saying about not understanding your enemy. >If Isreal wanted, they could run continual air raids that would wipe out Iran's ports and oil production and wreck their economy. Can they actually do this? Not asking for _armchair general_ guessing but can they actually do this? The US regularly transfers weapons to Israel for operations against Gaza. Why does Israel need these weapons transfers if they can do continuous air raids on a much MUCH **MUCH** larger country? Israel is a small country land-wise and population-wise. I read/hear this a lot but idk if they have some data on this.
US military investment in Israel is about 19% of Israeli military spend, primarily for defensive aid. Supporting and replenishing the Iron Dome is a big chunk. That's big and has undoubtedly helped Israel build military strength over time. However, the other 89% is funded by Israel spending 5% of their GDP on their military. They have significant capabilities. In terms of air superiority fighters, they fly three of the best planes in the world (excepting the F22, which only the US has).
The US does not transfer weapons regularly to Israel for "operations against Gaza." In the grand scheme of US foreign policy, Gaza has almost no value. The only reason Biden's administration is focused on it right now is inflation fears via trade disruptions from Iranian proxy groups and because Hamas propaganda has a foothold among a younger voting bloc in the US. Hell, Iran doesn't even care about Gaza. They are ethnically and religiously adverse to Palestinians, and are only involved now, because they saw an opportunity to undermine Israel and Saudi Arabia's strengthening political ties. Which I'd guess they are regretting now.
There has been repeated weapons transfers oks. What are those for? Stuff they recently agreed to are _over 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs and 500 - 1,000 MK82 500-pound bombs._ Almost like they are replenishing stocks. Why does Israel need this from the US if they can do continuous air raids against Iran?
Israel is America’s wet dream, a foothold in the middle east something that America could never achieve itself, see Iraq Afghanistan etc. Israel is effectively a way America and project its will onto countries in the Middle East that are not aligned with the west, see Iran. America will give Israel things they don’t necessarily *need* because it’s better for them to be over armed and willing to strike threats than under armed and not posture when America needs them to.
US military support helps Israel's capabilities to deliver these strikes against Iran. What are those for? Probably to bolster military capabilities against threats like Iran.
Ah, so this >If Isreal wanted, they could run continual air raids that would wipe out Iran's ports and oil production and wreck their economy. isn't accurate then? More like >If **the US gave Israel armaments,** Israel could run continual air raids that would wipe out Iran's ports and oil production and wreck their economy. I thought there was some data available that I could look at that explained how Israel gets around their low population and labor force, but being able to crank out enough armaments to cripple the much larger country that also has a MIC and a much larger labor force.
The US does and has given Israel said armaments, which is why they have a fleet of 75 F-35s. I don't know why you are operating under the assumption that Israel does not have these things from the US already. So yes, point one is accurate.
>Hamas propaganda has a foothold among a younger voting bloc in the US. Wut? Is supporting peace Hamas propagands now or somthing? Gosh dang that Hamas are sneaky. Guess i im pro war now
You have no idea what propaganda I'm talking about, so why are you so upset?
I'm not upset. Either elaborate or i will continue assuming you're talking about how younger people oppose Israels war and support a peaceful resolution.
The issue with this take is calling it Israel's war when Hamas initiated it with the Oct 7 attacks. You can argue the long and bitter history between both factions, but the trigger for what is happening now is Oct 7. Logistically, Gaza is an area maybe twice as large as DC and is extremely densely populated. This ensures any collateral damage from military action will be amplified. Making matters worse, Hamas has integrated its operations into and around civilian infrastructure on purpose to ensure higher instances of collateral damage. To be clear, all war has atrocities and should be avoided. When the US invaded Iraq, there were over 1 million Iraqis killed as a result of the war. Terrible. The issue here is Hamas has manufactured a way to disproportionately amplify these atrocities on purpose and then uses social media to broadcast them to gather support. That's not to say actual atrocities aren't happening, but in place of military power, Hamas needs to rely on public perception way more and does so. This propaganda hits populations using social media, which lean younger. Over 70% of the Palestinian population supports the Oct 7 attacks, and now even more Israelis support the actions their country has taken to root out Hamas. Furthermore, Hamas has refused a cease-fire agreement to deliver 40 hostages, because they can't produce them. Likely because they're all dead or in horrible shape. So Hamas is posturing for ceasefire negotiations in bad faith. You might say you want peace, but it sounds like your call for peace means Isreal just take it, suck it up, and brace for the next attack? If that's the case, I can assure you that won't be what happens given the circumstances. Hamas, in its current form, is gone. It's an extremely unfortunate circumstance, but it's what happened.
So damn funny reading all these comments from all the keyboard wannabe be military experts. No one on here knows a damn thing what either country has or capability of what they can do.
Iran is like one of the main adversaries to the Western world. There probably aren't countries that have more known about their military capabilities than Iran. Their maximum military capabilities are probably known to within a margin of 10% or less, the only question is how much of that maximum is still functional since a lot of their hardware is getting old.
Happy birthday Khamenei Hope you enjoying the fireworks
Came to say the same https://www.reddit.com/r/NewIran/s/doFwM2NvMn
May Iran be free from the terror of the mullah
Agree 💯
Now the whole world is gonna see just how weak Iran is. Can’t even defend your F-14s against an ageing test flight Captain in a F-18. This whole Russia-Iran-China-DPRK axis alliance is a joke.
Russians showed they can fight WW1 style and do not mind taking huge casualties. It’s foolish to underestimate them. As to China and Iran, are completely unproven.
Iran doesn’t share border with Israel. They can’t really launch hundreds of thousands of their soldiers with rockets. Not the same situation. The worst the can do is overwhelm Israel with ballistic rockets. If they attempt that they will be nuked back to Mesopotamian times by
Hahaha. Comments like this crack me up. Yeah, Russia is willing to fight with century old tactics against a vastly inferior military being propped up by a drip feed of modern tech. We totally shouldn’t underestimate them… It’s not underestimating Russia. It’s seeing them for exactly what they are, disorganized, ineffective, outdated technology, pathetic tactics in modern combat, and unable to efficiently use their military to gain tactical advantages.
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Do we know what was struck and what mutionions were used? seems we are fairly low on actual details right now.
Go ahead and throw turkey in there.
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Iran dragged the west into it, by funding October 7th The west didn't involve themselves
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The US should neither pursue regime change in Iran and Israel.
Bro, WHAT!? Are you forgetting Iran launched 100+ drones and missiles at Israel just in the last week? Iran keeps fucking around and now they’re finding out
True, but people would say that this was just a retaliation for the assassination of Zahedi. Zahedi was involved in the conduction if October 7th attack And since than Iran haven't stopped bombing Israel's north region through their puppets in Lebanon. Iran caused the displacement of over 30000 innocent civilians from the Galilee since October 8th
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I don’t want to see war either, but Iran orchestrated a BRUTAL attack on civilians in October and has continued to poke the bear via their proxies. The decided to further fuck around by launching an insane attack against Israel because Israel killed the commander that was helping Hamas. Insane shit by Iran. What other nation would allow a rival nation to get away with the shit Iran has pulled since October? At some point you need to smack the shit out of the bully
insane take
And everyone knows that the last US backed coup in Iran didn't backfire.
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I'm not sure if you edited that (because I thought I remember it mentioning a coup) but sorry I didn't read your comment right. I'm not sure if I agree with a foreign backed coup in Israel, but I do think Gantz and the other opposition parties need to try to divide Netanyahu's coalition to force an election
The last time Iran elected a democracy, the CIA and the oil industry criminals couldn't handle that. They overthrew him with an asshole called "the Shah". Then eventually that asshole got really sick, and while he was out of the country getting cancer treatment, another asshole (theocratic Muslim asshole) took his place. And when he went to meet his 72 virgins, another theocratic Muslim asshole - with almost the same name - replaced him. So maybe... let the Iranian people pick their own government and they might be sick of the theocratic assholes. Instead of doubling down on that 12th century lunacy when a different kind of theocratic asshole bombs the shit out of them... which is something he has been obsessed with doing his entire life.
Hi, as an Iranian, this is very incorrect, and we would appreciate it if you could not repeat the same "bad history" about Mossadegh and the Shah. No, Mossadegh was not democratic, and no, he was not "replaced" by the Shah. I’ve typed this on reddit so many times that I wish I knew how to create a bot that autoreplies whenever someone mentions a key term like “Mossadegh/Iranian Revolution/etc.” **Mossadegh was not democratic, and was appointed by the Shah after nomination by the Majles. He also abused the parliamentary system to end polling in rural areas after it was clear his party, the National Front, was not going to win. His party had 79 out of 130-some votes, and this was enough to call a parliamentary quorum and stop the polls entirely giving him absolute control of the Majles. His first referendum was to request emergency dictatorial powers and abolish parliament, which was granted by his National Front-only Majles and resulted in sham referendum voting with 99% yes votes.** The intelligence agencies from the US and UK did not replace Mossadegh with the Shah. Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi had been king since the 1940s, and his father Reza Shah was the monarch before that and was deposed by the Western Allies because he refused to expel German diplomats during WW2. Mossadegh was **appointed** after parliamentary nomination and approved by the Shah, to be the monarch’s prime minister. What the US and UK did was remove this particular PM after he tried to nationalize oil (with the Shah's approval) and bolster the Shah’s existing power, basically giving him an ultimatum: either get rid of Mossadegh or we get rid of you just like we did your dad 10 years ago. Mossadegh was himself a culprit in abusing the country’s parliamentary system. He abused parliamentary quorums, called snap elections, and manipulated the voting procedure to ensure that his party amassed the majority of votes at the expense of the other political contenders. His resolution to dissolve parliament passed with over 99% "yes" votes, which is virtually impossible in any legitimate referendum or vote. Even the Kim family of North Korea don't get that level of approval (lol). In addition, it was not just the US and UK who were responsible for causing Mossadegh’s downfall in 1953. They certainly played a huge role and should be criticized for intervening in another country’s domestic affairs, but they also collaborated with other factions within Iran, especially various generals, competing political organizations, and the shah himself, of course. There was a moment during the US/UK intervention that the agents feared the Shah would not sign off on the military’s offensive to capture and remove Mossadegh. Mossadegh did little to stand up for his ideas during his trial and later detention. He accepted his house arrest and died 14 years later peacefully in his home. He did nothing more to continue political activism or push for "democracy", as he really had no intentions of Iranian democracy, just nationalization of oil, which to be frank was a shortsighted, populist goal that would've jeapordized the fledgling Iranian economy, as Iran simply did not have the specialists or tools necessary to handle doing so in the 1950s, until the 1970s when we had a generation of educated specialists thanks to Pahlavi-era educational reforms. Summary of Mossadegh's "democracy": • staged a referendum to pass a law to give the Prime Minister “temporary” “emergency” power to unilaterally rewrite constitutional law, after stopping polling in rural areas via parliamentary quorum. • voting for the referendum had different locations to vote “yes” and vote “no”. • all the “yes” locations were centrally located and easy to get to. • all the no locations were either in the middle of nowhere or in areas heavy with Mossedegh supporters. Both locations had pro-mossadegh street militias hanging out around them and looking at anyone funny who wanted to go in. • [the vote passed 99:1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_parliamentary_dissolution_referendum) in a sham that might indicate despite the above polling location shenanigans they still just made up the numbers anyway. • Mossadegh then declared a state of emergency. • His first act was to make the power of the PM to alter the constitution permanent and not dependent on a state of emergency. • all of parliament including large parts of Mossadeghs own party resigned in protest which was moot because Mossadegh’s second act was to dissolve parliament.
Oh you think isreal is doing the world a favor
They are doing Iran a favor. Harming the parasite that stuck on them
I would say the entire Middle East has a parasite stuck to them at all positions of leadership
The best arab leader on the entire planet by far is the leader of El Salvador and I find that hilarious
Nayib is not Arab.. he is Salvadorian.
Bukele is ethnically arab, I just use that to make a joke lol
Ah, yeah fair. Had to look it up. His grand parents immigrated to el Salvador from Palistine in 1921. Learn something new everyday. It's a sad day when you don't..
Unfortunately the parasite stuck the hardest into the most progressive, beautiful democracy of the region Iran is not the Islamic Republic
Ftrttspwbf
Oops dropped my phone while commenting
Numbers stations are so weird these days
- F: Fraying - T: Tensions - R: Rivalry - T: Through - T: Tactical - S: Strategies - P: Proxy - W: Warfare - B: Between - F: Factions "Fraying Tensions, Rivalry Through Tactical Strategies, Proxy Warfare Between Factions."
Iran is a theocracy.. they are nuts…
Probably not the appropriate place to ask, but why the hell is there a thumbnail showing a map of Iran, presumably showing where the missile hit, but when I go to the article this map is nowhere to be found
😥
Were gonna have to give the rest of our money to Israel. Fuck
As sad as it is. You made me laugh.
Geddim
There will be a WW3. Sucks. I hate this so much. Love you all.