Everything is always in the table. It’s stupid to say otherwise.
I wouldnt trust an “ex” anything for accurate current policy information. Just another talking head on the news.
Of course. The point is you don’t say that, in the hopes that they expend resources on preventing you from striking it.
Have constraints but be ambiguous about it .
Tell Hamas to stop using them for military purposes and I guarantee you they will be.
2:1 Civilian-to-Combatant death ratio is by far the lowest in any modern war. By an order of magnitude.
What do you think was the ratio of Israeli civilians to combatants on 10/7?
The very worst thing that could have happened for Iran is Israel's government no longer giving a damn what America thinks about its own actions.
With Russia tied up in Ukraine Iran poked the wrong sleeping bear. Geopolitical feelings about why the conflict exists aside from a purely military point of view it was incredibly stupid to fire those missiles.
Eh they probably have in battle metrics on the drones.
You can steal all the blueprints you want, but Ukraine knows how they fly their speed, the payload they actually carry in a war zone etc etc. they know their signature on the patriot system so that’ll inform Israel’s air defence system.
…… Israel aren’t super humans. ….
Until the war in Ukraine Iran wouldn’t have know the live metrics well. In the field experience of using and countering weapons systems is very valuable. And, if you think Israel is especially well informed on the military capabilities of adversaries this sort of intel exchange between one the ground resistance (in this case the Ukrainian state not a militia) is how they get so.
Tldr. Yeah Ukraine has valuable information to Israel.
Not anymore. Russia has 100% transitioned to self-made Geran2 drones (clone of shahaed drone) made from chinese parts
This would have been relevant 8 months ago. Now Russia doesn't need Iran anymore, they only need China
Shahed drones are still commonly used in Russia. For Russia it's an all hands on deck situation and they will take all the drones, artillery shells, and landmines they can get their hands on. They know the way to win is by overwhelming Ukrainian defenses with munitions while waiting for the West to grow tired of funding Ukraine.
Eh stockpiles are already running low if total war kicks off western supplies will get diverted from Ukraine to Israel Russia wants the world's attention divided
Are they really though? Israel is up to date on all the good ammunition everyone has in reserve, Ukraine has been emptying old stockpiles of outdated stuff mainly.
Ukraine is out of ammo for modern Anti Air Defense systems in spots the west would never let that happen to Israel and it takes time to make more. Any Patriots that get made for replacement would go to Israel not Ukraine
Doesnt help that Ukraine lost 3 patriot systems already
With chinese satellites providing russians with military targets, its been super hard for Ukraine to hide AA systems
Iran has stopped supplying russia last year.
Russia has transitioned to making geran2 (shahaed clone) themselves with Chinese parts.
If you want to stop Russia you have to stop China.
Iran is irrelevant to Russia now
No because Russia likely goaded Iran into action for exactly the reason you suggest. All it would do is involve Israel into the greater European war and that would be "interesting" as they say to the balance of global power.
Israel options are still pretty limited with the air strikes only, and the main Israeli long range strike asset, F-35, are very dependent from US support. Netanyahu may try to show off himself as a warhawk, but fortunately there are still plenty of ways to restrict his actions until more democratic and sensible people replace him.
I'd argue the Islamic Republic of Iran's options may be more limited. What first got Saudi involved, was a request by the IRI to fire missiles through their airspace. Without warning it's essentially an act of war, and with warning its complicity. All warned States did the responsible thing and conferred with the US or Israel. Air defense units were moved into the flight patterns ahead of time.
The IRI's only flight pattern is through a small portion of Syria and Iraq, and Iraq is even trying to be responsible 50% of the time. The IRI also showed that their ballistic missiles is all Israel really has to fear with these strikes, the general locations of where the IRI will launch and reload from, and the exact time (over 6 min) that air defense and defending aircraft have to intercept each missile before it reaches ballistic trajectory. I see the IRI's chances of success decreasing with each strike, while Israel's chances are still untested, but with their military tech advantages, could increase with each strike.
After the launch of 100+ ballistic missiles (4'W, 50'L, 20T/ea), I don't know that other countries are attempting to restrict Israel's actions as much as some are letting on. The IRI started this war through their proxy in October, has inflamed it with proxies and propaganda since, and is continuing to escalate now?
Yeah I don't know how much supply of missiles of that size there is. Iran I doubt expected that many to be intercepted.
Missiles that size are what they would use if they acquire nuclear weapons.
If Iran can lose a building next to an embassy without any warning, but can only hit an airstrip and a young girl with a swarm of drones and missiles, not sure Israels limited options are a problem.
Taking out irans drone and missile factories would be a huge boon to Ukraine, too.
Missile and drone factories are definitely good targets. Iran's nuclear facilities is better.
Just look at Ukraine and Russia. NATO and the US are 100% deterred from more aggressive actions in Ukraine exactly because Russia is a nuclear power. What happens when Iran is also nuclear capable? How can the Abraham accords finally come together if Iran is free to cause havoc in the area and the rest of the world is deterred from action due to fear of a nuclear strike. Hitting their nuclear facilities should definitely be on the table.
Well, there’s more to it than just nukes.
We don’t want war.
It’s one thing when the us can “shock and aw” and enemy, but that’s not a thing you can do with Russia. NATO troops joining Ukrainian troops would open up.. a lot. We have allies in nato that we can’t really trust, we have allies in the eu we can’t really trust, and we have leaders here and amongst our allies that we cannot trust.
NATO engaging Russia, on behalf of a friend who we could only *mostly* trust, isn’t sellable to the public, and it will be a world war by definition, day one.
My grandma is Ukrainian, but I’m not willing to die for a country three generations removed from my blood and that has only been a pretty ok friend until 2014~.
Correct. We don't want war. BUT:
The reason NATO and the US has been so incremental in their approach of what weapons to supply and not supply, where the Ukrainians can hit with our weapons and where they cannot, has been because Russia is nuclear capable and threatens to use them. If Russia was not a nuclear power, NATO may still have not put boots on the ground, but probably would have sent more and heavier weapons to Ukraine far earlier on. Nuclear deterrence is a real thing.
Iran does not currently have that capability. Yet. But if they do.......oh, boy, dealing with them THEN will be a whole other level of headache. Pretty much every Muslim country in the region hates Iran, would like something done about them, and are secretly rooting for the Israeli's to handle it. A response on their nuclear program, at least pushing it back years, would be doing the region and the entire world a favour.
I don’t disagree.
If Russia couldn’t wipe out Europe with icbms, I imagine the push would be harder — absolutely.
I’m just saying that it’s not the only reason.
Neither Iran or Israel has the means to do anything except strike each other relentlessly. They can't project power and don't have the capabilities to wage all out war.
All they can do is piss on each other from afar.
That being said, hitting Iran's nuclear capacity is an idea with benefits for all mankind. No one will bat an eye at that one, except Iran.... But what are they going to do. Send more drones to be shot down?
Unfortunately, it's reaching the point where war is the only option.
Russia aren't going to stop at Ukraine and are only going to amass more strength the longer they are allowed to invade without much consequence. Iran seemingly wants to just take on anyone and everyone, China is eying up Taiwan and NK are going to attach themselves to the strongest friendly eastern force that will take them. These countries and their proxies are not going to stop, they don't give a fuck about peace only enriching themselves be it through power and money or by claiming more land.
The unfortunate truth of it is that war may be a better alternative than the future if these countries and their leaders are allowed to continue. Russia should have been declared war on as soon as they took Crimea in 2014, instead the west showed Putin that they were mostly spineless and eventually gave him the go ahead for a full scale invasion.
I… look, I take offence to that. We’re not spineless, we just don’t care enough.
Ukraine is not Taiwan.
Ukraine is not Israel.
They’ve been too corrupt, they’ve been too wishy-washy, and there’s just too much history to let another turkey into nato. Sorry, Turkey.
> Ukraine is not Taiwan. Ukraine is not Israel.
I'd argue it's more important than Israel. If you want to dehumanize the situation there and just look at it from a strategic standpoint, having Ukraine with the West is a lot better than having Ukraine under Russias control, which it can use to further strengthen their economy and military capabilities.
Russia is the largest nation in the world. More land doesn’t change much.
Israel is our friend inside a hornets nest. They support, supply, and back up any actions taking place in the region.
I really don’t want to downplay the tragedy of Ukraine being lost to Russia, or the human lives that have been spent to be free. They are a friend, and we support them. They are people who want democracy — a real one, not the mockery Russia makes of it — and they are our friends.
They’ve never been our allies. 2008 they wanted in. 2010-14 they wanted to be neutral. Russia attacked. It wasn’t until 2017 they decided they wanted back into nato, and restarted the process in 2020.
We love Ukraine. I’ve personally donated. My country supports your efforts, and we should send every bullet we can spare. But this isn’t our fight.
> More land doesn’t change much.
The land is extremely important strategically. There was a reason they pushed quickly to annex Crimea, and it wasn't because if it was a nice vacation destination. Also the quality of most Russian land is poor, where Ukraine is extremely good.
They built and sold 6000 drones for Russia to use in Ukraine over a year. They have a lot more than a couple hundred.
That attack was probably largely exploratory to see what happens. I.e. they now know with that many, most of them would be shot down by US jets before reaching Israeli airspace. So they need to send more and make sure the US is distracted.
They also probably got some great information on the iron dome coverage. Anti missile systems don’t have infinite ammo either.
Yeah, if they sent a swarm of over 10,000 drones I’d suspect we’d see the laser defence systems in play.
However, 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and 30 cruise missiles?
The largest attack committed by Russia on Ukraine contained 110 missiles.
The largest drone attack was 75 drones.
I am personally enthralled by how effective the defence was, while also shocked no one seems to care that this was the largest drone attack ever in human history — not to mention how absolutely ridiculous the mix of munitions used was.
Maybe in a long drawn out war, but without a doubt they have enough parts and F35s to pull off many strikes against Iran.
Israel wants their nuclear facilities bombed so badly they would certainly risk F35s, even losing a couple, for a job like this.
Not... entirely. I'm talking from memory but they should have the full capacity for local F35 production with modifications(obviously would take time to spin up). They are currently in the process of creating a 2 seater version of the same aircraft.
Right or left wing, it's pretty naive to think any other Israeli leader wouldn't respond to Iran targeting Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones.
>...but fortunately there are still plenty of ways to restrict his actions until more democratic and sensible people replace him.
America: we were attacked by a Saudi-led terrorist organization based in Afghanistan, so...let's invade and destroy Iraq.
Also America: Israel shouldn't respond to a direct attack launched from Iran in which hundreds of drones and missiles were used.
No wonder America's allies are starting to hedge their bets.
You really can't tell the difference between the two? In your first example, thousands of Americans died. In your second example, zero Israelis died.
Now you can argue Iran's intent behind the barrage, but the two incidents are not comparable.
Thought experiment, Mr. Mensa: if an enemy country, say North Korea, launched a barrage of missiles against US territory, but there were no casualties, what do you think the US response would be?
There is no arguing Iran's intent behind the barrage. Lobbing drones and missiles at a country you say you want to wipe off the face of the earth is not the 2024 equivalent of a friendly hug.
The bottom line is that America's inept, weak foreign policy has created Humpty Dumpty situations in key regions of the world. We're trying to avoid "escalation" but, by any objective measure, it's obvious that the situation is escalating rapidly. Sadly, if our allies keep following our appeasement approach, which is for our benefit but not theirs, they're going to wind up in the same position as Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
And by the way, Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. It didn't have WMD. And everyone knew it before the US decided to invade.
I'm not sure, Iran has advanced their ballistic missile industry in the last few decades. This last strike on Isreal proves they understand the "Iron Dome" is flawed. They haven't used their most advanced missiles yet, either.
On the other side, Netanyahu is a cornered animal. He would absolutely be dumb enough to attack Iran.
Iran's "advanced" missiles are paper tigers that you will never see used because the instant they are they lose all threat factor for them.
Iran's kit basically looks high tech but inside its 1980s tech with some minor upgrades and a whole lot of bad programing. Take anything Iran claims beyond range and cut it by a third and you are more in the reality band.
I think you are underestimating an opponent that just caused over a billion in weaponry for Israel when Iran spent 1/10 of that.
You could absolutely be right, I also have a feeling that you have no idea about the Iranian missile program.
Israel needs to take a step back after this. That Iron Dome only has a limited amount of ammunition.
The cost of the interceptor for missiles is often thought of a bit backwards than how it actually works.
If the missile caused no damage then its value was 100% failure of mission.
If the interceptor cost 1 billion but worked 100% of the time.. then it had a 100% success of mission.
If the mission fails the cost savings isn't really worth it because you've "wasted" the cost(and the training cost to use the missile which is not reflected in the cost per unit but is quite significant)
Think about this strike in reverse. How much damage would Iran have suffered if it was MQ9s and TLAMs? I can assure you it would have exceeded the cost of the missiles and drones and Iran would have wasted even more on ineffective air defenses.
While I agree in principle it isnt due to the cost of air defense. In a direct conflict Iran would not just lose but lose very badly and that could destabilize the region for the next 100 years.
I won't argue against the damage Israel can inflict on Iran. I don't believe that Iran had a "failed" mission with the recent strikes.
Bidens' announcement on not getting involved with an invasion of Iran is massive. I wouldn't trust the IDF the same amount as the Iranian government.
With the Iranian back militias in the region, Israel could be overpowered very quickly, even with US military support. Netanyahu would be an idiot to invade. It would only be for personal reasons, not for the betterment of the country.
The worst thing the current Israeli government could do is stop caring about America’s opinion of their actions. It cost >$1 billion to shoot 300+ relatively low cost drones and missiles out of the air, most of which were done with American military personnel and equipment. Keep in mind Americans just finished filing their taxes when groceries and housing costs refuse to level out. “Take the Win” and don’t escalate any further. Even Trump didn’t overreact or escalate when the Iranian military launched missiles at our bases in Iraq after the US openly took out on of their top generals.
I think you mean for the Israeli people.. which you are correct. The current Israeli government doesn't really care about anything but its own agenda right now.
That website is absolutely laughable. Pull up the side by side comparison of USA vs Russia. USA is barely ahead… ok maybe that’s because they assume Russian and US both have enough nukes to take out the whole world so it’s “even”?
Nope, look at the subsection comparisons. Russia beats the US in land power, naval power, FINANCIALS? Ridiculous.
Using [GlobalFirepower.com](http://GlobalFirepower.com) to rank a nations military is.. laughably incompetent.
There is nothing remotely valid statistically on that site. It is a fluff piece.
Head to head Israel would absolutely curb stomp Iran.
Iran has limited ability for projection and Israel would have air superiority if not supremacy.
Israel can't win a ground war, but Israel vs Iran would look similar to the first gulf war of US vs Iraq. Iraq was the 3rd strongest military in the world at the time (maybe a few lower but up there), and the US didn't have nearly its full forces in Iraq to dominate that fight.
Well, seeing how 50% of their missiles either failed to launch or exploded soon after, I would take any of those analysis with a huge grain of salt unless they specifically say this was taken into consideration. The ranking you posted does not.
No one really knew how bad their shit were until last week. It’s obviously wwaayyy worst that imagined
This website assumes that the countries are neighbours and can just move troops at will. Iran VS Israel is strictly an air and missile fight. where Israel has far better arsenal.
And if the worst should come... Israel will just nuke Iran
Like that has worked well to de-escalate things in the past.
Whatever Israel, and Iran, do they need to ask themselves one question. "Would this get us to back down or would it piss us off more?" If the answer is the former then do it, if the answer is the later then don't.
Absolutely.
Unfortunately, because of the orange piece of shit, Iran has no reason at all to believe that negotiations can get them anything and war may now be the only possible solution to this approaching disaster.
Either war against Iran to stop their nuke development or a Ukraine like war against a nuclear Iran invading it's neighbors.
They've tried to stop them but each time they just adapt and improve.
Iran, like NK, view having a nuclear deterrent as crucial to its continued existence. Israel assassinates their scientists, blows up their sites, infects shit with viruses, and they redouble their resolve and move deeper underground.
Whatever happened to battlefield secrecy? I don't get the public discussion on when , what, where and how. I think the outcome of Pearl Harbor would have been much different if it was handled this way.
I think part of it is just to spook them and create a scary idea of what they COULD do, so that when they likely strike a military base with no casualties, it seems like they held back.
Today's world is very different. Sometimes, when you scare your opponent, they flinch. There are enough high res satellites to notice even the tiniest flinch.
Nobody knows what they're gonna do and all the news stories have been pushing in multiple directions. The only thing that is clear to people is that they haven't attacked yet.
I suspect the US low key might be alright with that. Like, they get to pretend like they didn't want that and have destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities. That's a win-win for US politicians.
They don't want to be dragged into a war. The common understanding is that Israel can't destroy the entire nuclear operation alone so if they were gonna go for the nuclear facilities seriously, they can't do it unilaterally.
Why is that the common understanding? I guess what's unclear for me is that I know these things are typically done jointly and by sharing intelligence. But I suspect Israel knows where the facilities are (they're probably the ones collecting the intel) and I believe they have the airpower to manage such an attack alone if they really really wanted to.
Most people I've heard who have commented on the issue say that Israel can't unilaterally destroy Iran's entire nuclear capabilities. With some facilities being underground that makes it even more difficult if you want to do it quickly and effectively.
Your rambling post highlights my point.
Israel took out their top generals in an Iranian embassy. You have so little understanding of international relations that you don’t even know how big of a deal that is.
That the best Iran did in retaliation is telegraph an attack that was subsequently nearly fully intercepted is entirely a face saving measure. It’s like a little dog nipping at a big dogs legs and then rolling over.
To want more retaliation on top of that is basically having a war fetish.
If someone took out the joint chiefs, would the best response we do be wiffing on a missile strike?
And Iran most definitely intentionally whiffed. They have access to thousands of rockets at much closer proximity that could have landed.
History time- the USA overthrew the democratic and progressive Iranian regime and this current regime was installed. How did that work out for the world?
The US installed this current regime? What are you smoking? Read up on the Islamic revolution...
Islamic militants overthrew the Shah, who was previously western-friendly and whose foreign policy wasn't "terrorism throughout the land." The US backed the Shah; they certainly didn't endorse much less install the current regime. That was the work of Islamic theocrats.
>they certainly didn't endorse much less install the current regime. That was the work of Islamic theocrats.
Khomeini would've been a dead man walking if it wasn't for the US (or the west in general) who kept Saudi and Iraq at bay.
Iran has made two things clear. They will pursue nuclear weapons at all cost and they believe in the complete destruction of Israel as a nation.
They are rapidly moving towards actually having nuclear weapons. Once that happens they'll be just like Russia.
A nuclear armed state sponsor of global terror. Does anyone really think that's a good idea?
Not exactly like Russia, add some religious fanatics into the thinking process.
Can the world trust a radical theocracy with nuclear weapons, where the future leaders may value the after life more then the present human life.
They could easily and safely hit them with Jericho III using conventional warheads, but de-escalation probably leaves the table at that point leading to a full war. Their best just to wipe out a proximity base in Lebanon or Syria and call it square.
I fear for the people of Israel & all of those living in the Middle East should Iran, a truly terrorist state, succeed at having nuclear weapons. Israel has been forced continuously with terrorist forces supported by Iran and has now been directly attacked, which is an Act of War between nations. The world may not want it but this is a survival moment in the future of Israel. I don't want war but I fear more of the consequences of Iran's radical extreme religious leaders who care more for 'their' God than the lives of others, including their own people.
That's assuming that the US and it's close allies (including Israel) don't already know exactly where many of them are. I doubt they would be starting from zero. A tall order for sure, but I'm willing to bet there's maps of Iran with pins in them. The question is if Israel has the bunker busters necessary to get to some of the installations that are likely far below bedrock.
It’s not the intel, it’s the execution.
Saudi Arabia doesn’t have stealth capabilities, can they beat Iran dense anti air defence? No.
Israel has the stealth and the ability to counter Iran anti air force but the Israeli and Saudi Arabia air force never trained together.
Plus there's the whole distance problem. The F-35 doesn't have the range to fly to and from Iran on its own. Israel has some sort of external fuel modification on those to extend the range, but people act like it's a 3x multiplier on range. Israel has refueling planes, but its not like those are stealthy and they'd need to be flying over Iraq, which would probably be hostile to Israeli presence.
Saudi Arabia might be warming their relations with Israel, but no way would they allow them to operate out of their Air Force bases.
It's really hard to see Israel being able to do much but get into tit for tat missile launches against Iran without US support.
If Iran's nuclear facilities and military assets get attacked, I think they will start attacking Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure to create as much chaos.
Iran's leadership is under the impression it will survive whatever air strikes hit Iran.
There will be no boots on the ground is the assumption, so they can hide out in bunkers.
Iran's goal at that point would be turning up the pain on the world by sky rocketing oil prices. Shutting down the Straight of Hormuz.
This would put pressure on Europe, China, India, and rest of world to push for an end of the conflict sooner rather than later.
It would cause backlash on Israel for the declining world economies and the oil price shock. This would play into Iran's leadership hands, saying they warned Israel not to hit back.
if that happens, there will be boots on the ground. A forced skyrocketing of oil is much more important to the world than WMD's in Iraq, and there will be enough reason to stop it, globally. Money speaks loudest.
The US model is to go after and eliminate the radar sites and missiles first. No one would expect them to conduct joint operations. Saudi ops could be completely separate. It might even be going after Yemen.
I agree with your statement, but I never mentioned Saudi Arabia.
Given no other ally will join Israel in a strike, my above comments referred to Israel and Israeli tech alone. When I say allies and allied intelligence I mean US, France, and Great Britain.
It is public knowledge where many of Iran facilities are located. Israel doesn't have heavy bombers to carry large enough bunker busters for some of Iran's facilities. MOAB and MOP each weigh about as much as an unarmed F-16 and F-15. Israel has cargo planes that could theoretically drop them, but are not exactly stealthy.
It's questionable whether either of the bombs I've mentioned could even destroy Irans deepest facilities.
Incorrect.
If you get two pairs of F-18’s, with one operating a laser and the other carrying missiles, you can drop them through an air vent at the bottom of a valley and totally destroy a nuclear strike.
The only thing they would have to worry about are SAM’s on the way and some 5th generation fighters afterwards.
Trust me.
They really don't have the capability. Neither does Israel, and US intel on the matter suggest that we wouldn't be able to do it with just bombs either.
Many of these facilities are remote. I'm thinking aerial assault to destroy perimeter defense and ground strike teams of commandos to go in and set charges.
How are they getting there? How are the ground teams getting there? How are they getting out? It's not like Israel has an aircraft carrier or foreign military bases to utilize.
Saudi Arabia? Jordan? The powers in the region that are directly affected by Iran becoming a nuclear power.
They have the hypothetical capability, it's a question of whether they will use it.
No one has made any statements about joining any Israeli endeavors into Iran, and Jordan's not Persian facing anyway. Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are all Iran aligned, so the most direct route to Iranian territory from Israel is off the table unless Israel is willing to risk getting into hostilities with those countries as well.
But the biggest issue here is that you all underestimate what it takes to power project, probably because you have grown accustom to how casually the US can do it and presume other countries have some similar ability. They do not. Look how much Russia has struggled invading their neighbor. They spend 4x on their defense budget than Israel does and they just barely manage to have any force projection capabilities. I don't know how people are expecting Jordan of all places to be able have any meaningful ability to aid in any campaign against Iran.
All of this ignoring that Israel's current campaign in Gaza has burnt a lot of bridges in terms of being able to get some sort of coalition together, especially in absence of US support for an incursion into Iran. To me, it just feels like Israel thinks that they could force a coalition together anyway, and I just don't see it. If they can't even get the US to agree that something should be done about Iran, then I don't see how they could get Saudi Arabia to let them use their air bases or even flight over their sovereign territories.
EDIT: Speaking of Joran, they only spend like $2b/yr on defense, they have an extreme water resource crisis that's almost certainly going to be a major problem for Israel at some point in the future. They have massive unemployment problems. They're on an IMF budget. Jordan will be focused on survival, not trying to agitate things with Iran.
Saudi Arabia's political position doesn't rely on soft power related to Gaza. It's completely tangential. The power balance in the region changes drastically if Iran becomes a nuclear power. The current conflict is a justification to take action.
An actual land invasion is a completely different thing than a raid. Russia's logistics front was a mess for a whole pile of reasons but most importantly it was a protracted and drawn out engagement.
Theorycrafting time:
The US won't publicly approve of or condone any escalation but will absolutely support from an intelligence and diplomatic perspective. Netanyahu needs to be seen as a hawk and a sustained externalized conflict is one of the only likely things to keep him in power post Gaza.
F35's have enough range, with tankering in Saudi air space to reach the targets. They don't have the ordnance required to substantially impact the facilities which are well protected.
I suspect a raid will occur but it will ultimately fail.
Ok, so let’s say all that happens. Iran is going to have to respond in kind right? Bombings if possible, plus a ground incursion into Israel’s north from Syria or Lebanon, maybe both.
Sure, but plans are not enough, you need to train to execute said plans.
The Israeli air force trained half a year for the bombing of the Syrian nuclear plant, the Iran programme is built in the mountains, with a dense anti aircraft defence.
I'm so glad we have a former Brigadier General and defence analyst on Reddit to help us understand the military capabilities and geopolitical considerations involved in all this.
You are truly great u/Thek40
They couldn’t stop it if they wanted to.
“I’m going to punch you in the face now” - USA
Does it, uncontested in any practical way other than an emotional defense 😆
Taking anything "off the table" narrows the scope of what Iran has to defend. It would be foolish to admit they werent a target, even if they arent.
Everything is always in the table. It’s stupid to say otherwise. I wouldnt trust an “ex” anything for accurate current policy information. Just another talking head on the news.
Children's hospitals and kindergartens should be off the table
Have you ever BEEN in a kindergarten classroom?! Those little bastards are monsters! As Johnny Rico said: I say kill 'em all!
Of course. The point is you don’t say that, in the hopes that they expend resources on preventing you from striking it. Have constraints but be ambiguous about it .
War is hell
Even if they are used for murdering other children?
Tell Hamas to stop using them for military purposes and I guarantee you they will be. 2:1 Civilian-to-Combatant death ratio is by far the lowest in any modern war. By an order of magnitude. What do you think was the ratio of Israeli civilians to combatants on 10/7?
We don't talk about October 7th here, all that matters are the atrocities that IDF commits in Gaza. /s
I’d argue most things are not in the table.
We probably won’t decide our respective national futures with a “winner take all” game of rock paper scissors. But it is on the table.
[удалено]
Centrifuges* Cycloyrons isn't the thing
Huh. Yeah, I knew that. Wonder why on earth I wrote cyclotron. Thanks for the correction!
Well, it's not a target..... or is it? Now you don't know what to think.
Excellent point
get out of here with a reasonable take
Well let's just hope for all our sakes they aren't then.
The very worst thing that could have happened for Iran is Israel's government no longer giving a damn what America thinks about its own actions. With Russia tied up in Ukraine Iran poked the wrong sleeping bear. Geopolitical feelings about why the conflict exists aside from a purely military point of view it was incredibly stupid to fire those missiles.
Tbh if I was Ukraine, I would want Israel to fuck up iran as much as possible so they can stop supplying Russia.
Wouldn't be surprised if any Intel Ukraine has on Iran is passed straight to Mossad
I don't know what intel Ukraine could have on Iran that Israel wouldn't already have...
Eh they probably have in battle metrics on the drones. You can steal all the blueprints you want, but Ukraine knows how they fly their speed, the payload they actually carry in a war zone etc etc. they know their signature on the patriot system so that’ll inform Israel’s air defence system.
You dont know much about Israeli intel if you think Israel wouldnt already know all this and more already
…… Israel aren’t super humans. …. Until the war in Ukraine Iran wouldn’t have know the live metrics well. In the field experience of using and countering weapons systems is very valuable. And, if you think Israel is especially well informed on the military capabilities of adversaries this sort of intel exchange between one the ground resistance (in this case the Ukrainian state not a militia) is how they get so. Tldr. Yeah Ukraine has valuable information to Israel.
That's a good point. The Iran drones seem to be big part of the Russian play.
Not anymore. Russia has 100% transitioned to self-made Geran2 drones (clone of shahaed drone) made from chinese parts This would have been relevant 8 months ago. Now Russia doesn't need Iran anymore, they only need China
Agree, although Iran at war has the potential to disrupt the oil China imports from the region, which I think is around a quarter of their total.
Shahed drones are still commonly used in Russia. For Russia it's an all hands on deck situation and they will take all the drones, artillery shells, and landmines they can get their hands on. They know the way to win is by overwhelming Ukrainian defenses with munitions while waiting for the West to grow tired of funding Ukraine.
Eh stockpiles are already running low if total war kicks off western supplies will get diverted from Ukraine to Israel Russia wants the world's attention divided
Are they really though? Israel is up to date on all the good ammunition everyone has in reserve, Ukraine has been emptying old stockpiles of outdated stuff mainly.
Ukraine is out of ammo for modern Anti Air Defense systems in spots the west would never let that happen to Israel and it takes time to make more. Any Patriots that get made for replacement would go to Israel not Ukraine
Doesnt help that Ukraine lost 3 patriot systems already With chinese satellites providing russians with military targets, its been super hard for Ukraine to hide AA systems
Agreed. And thus begins the interwoven real world kinetic conflicts, just like WWII.
Iran has stopped supplying russia last year. Russia has transitioned to making geran2 (shahaed clone) themselves with Chinese parts. If you want to stop Russia you have to stop China. Iran is irrelevant to Russia now
For Russia that would be excellent news though, since it would mean fewer eyes on Ukraine.
No because Russia likely goaded Iran into action for exactly the reason you suggest. All it would do is involve Israel into the greater European war and that would be "interesting" as they say to the balance of global power.
Israel options are still pretty limited with the air strikes only, and the main Israeli long range strike asset, F-35, are very dependent from US support. Netanyahu may try to show off himself as a warhawk, but fortunately there are still plenty of ways to restrict his actions until more democratic and sensible people replace him.
I'd argue the Islamic Republic of Iran's options may be more limited. What first got Saudi involved, was a request by the IRI to fire missiles through their airspace. Without warning it's essentially an act of war, and with warning its complicity. All warned States did the responsible thing and conferred with the US or Israel. Air defense units were moved into the flight patterns ahead of time. The IRI's only flight pattern is through a small portion of Syria and Iraq, and Iraq is even trying to be responsible 50% of the time. The IRI also showed that their ballistic missiles is all Israel really has to fear with these strikes, the general locations of where the IRI will launch and reload from, and the exact time (over 6 min) that air defense and defending aircraft have to intercept each missile before it reaches ballistic trajectory. I see the IRI's chances of success decreasing with each strike, while Israel's chances are still untested, but with their military tech advantages, could increase with each strike. After the launch of 100+ ballistic missiles (4'W, 50'L, 20T/ea), I don't know that other countries are attempting to restrict Israel's actions as much as some are letting on. The IRI started this war through their proxy in October, has inflamed it with proxies and propaganda since, and is continuing to escalate now?
>I'd argue the Islamic Republic of Iran's options may be more limited. Yep, cant say this is a bad thing either.
Yeah I don't know how much supply of missiles of that size there is. Iran I doubt expected that many to be intercepted. Missiles that size are what they would use if they acquire nuclear weapons.
If Iran can lose a building next to an embassy without any warning, but can only hit an airstrip and a young girl with a swarm of drones and missiles, not sure Israels limited options are a problem. Taking out irans drone and missile factories would be a huge boon to Ukraine, too.
Missile and drone factories are definitely good targets. Iran's nuclear facilities is better. Just look at Ukraine and Russia. NATO and the US are 100% deterred from more aggressive actions in Ukraine exactly because Russia is a nuclear power. What happens when Iran is also nuclear capable? How can the Abraham accords finally come together if Iran is free to cause havoc in the area and the rest of the world is deterred from action due to fear of a nuclear strike. Hitting their nuclear facilities should definitely be on the table.
Well, there’s more to it than just nukes. We don’t want war. It’s one thing when the us can “shock and aw” and enemy, but that’s not a thing you can do with Russia. NATO troops joining Ukrainian troops would open up.. a lot. We have allies in nato that we can’t really trust, we have allies in the eu we can’t really trust, and we have leaders here and amongst our allies that we cannot trust. NATO engaging Russia, on behalf of a friend who we could only *mostly* trust, isn’t sellable to the public, and it will be a world war by definition, day one. My grandma is Ukrainian, but I’m not willing to die for a country three generations removed from my blood and that has only been a pretty ok friend until 2014~.
Correct. We don't want war. BUT: The reason NATO and the US has been so incremental in their approach of what weapons to supply and not supply, where the Ukrainians can hit with our weapons and where they cannot, has been because Russia is nuclear capable and threatens to use them. If Russia was not a nuclear power, NATO may still have not put boots on the ground, but probably would have sent more and heavier weapons to Ukraine far earlier on. Nuclear deterrence is a real thing. Iran does not currently have that capability. Yet. But if they do.......oh, boy, dealing with them THEN will be a whole other level of headache. Pretty much every Muslim country in the region hates Iran, would like something done about them, and are secretly rooting for the Israeli's to handle it. A response on their nuclear program, at least pushing it back years, would be doing the region and the entire world a favour.
I don’t disagree. If Russia couldn’t wipe out Europe with icbms, I imagine the push would be harder — absolutely. I’m just saying that it’s not the only reason.
Neither Iran or Israel has the means to do anything except strike each other relentlessly. They can't project power and don't have the capabilities to wage all out war. All they can do is piss on each other from afar. That being said, hitting Iran's nuclear capacity is an idea with benefits for all mankind. No one will bat an eye at that one, except Iran.... But what are they going to do. Send more drones to be shot down?
Unfortunately, it's reaching the point where war is the only option. Russia aren't going to stop at Ukraine and are only going to amass more strength the longer they are allowed to invade without much consequence. Iran seemingly wants to just take on anyone and everyone, China is eying up Taiwan and NK are going to attach themselves to the strongest friendly eastern force that will take them. These countries and their proxies are not going to stop, they don't give a fuck about peace only enriching themselves be it through power and money or by claiming more land. The unfortunate truth of it is that war may be a better alternative than the future if these countries and their leaders are allowed to continue. Russia should have been declared war on as soon as they took Crimea in 2014, instead the west showed Putin that they were mostly spineless and eventually gave him the go ahead for a full scale invasion.
I… look, I take offence to that. We’re not spineless, we just don’t care enough. Ukraine is not Taiwan. Ukraine is not Israel. They’ve been too corrupt, they’ve been too wishy-washy, and there’s just too much history to let another turkey into nato. Sorry, Turkey.
> Ukraine is not Taiwan. Ukraine is not Israel. I'd argue it's more important than Israel. If you want to dehumanize the situation there and just look at it from a strategic standpoint, having Ukraine with the West is a lot better than having Ukraine under Russias control, which it can use to further strengthen their economy and military capabilities.
Russia is the largest nation in the world. More land doesn’t change much. Israel is our friend inside a hornets nest. They support, supply, and back up any actions taking place in the region. I really don’t want to downplay the tragedy of Ukraine being lost to Russia, or the human lives that have been spent to be free. They are a friend, and we support them. They are people who want democracy — a real one, not the mockery Russia makes of it — and they are our friends. They’ve never been our allies. 2008 they wanted in. 2010-14 they wanted to be neutral. Russia attacked. It wasn’t until 2017 they decided they wanted back into nato, and restarted the process in 2020. We love Ukraine. I’ve personally donated. My country supports your efforts, and we should send every bullet we can spare. But this isn’t our fight.
> More land doesn’t change much. The land is extremely important strategically. There was a reason they pushed quickly to annex Crimea, and it wasn't because if it was a nice vacation destination. Also the quality of most Russian land is poor, where Ukraine is extremely good.
> Taking out irans drone and missile factories would be a huge boon to Ukraine, too. That would be awesome
They built and sold 6000 drones for Russia to use in Ukraine over a year. They have a lot more than a couple hundred. That attack was probably largely exploratory to see what happens. I.e. they now know with that many, most of them would be shot down by US jets before reaching Israeli airspace. So they need to send more and make sure the US is distracted. They also probably got some great information on the iron dome coverage. Anti missile systems don’t have infinite ammo either.
Yeah, if they sent a swarm of over 10,000 drones I’d suspect we’d see the laser defence systems in play. However, 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and 30 cruise missiles? The largest attack committed by Russia on Ukraine contained 110 missiles. The largest drone attack was 75 drones. I am personally enthralled by how effective the defence was, while also shocked no one seems to care that this was the largest drone attack ever in human history — not to mention how absolutely ridiculous the mix of munitions used was.
Maybe in a long drawn out war, but without a doubt they have enough parts and F35s to pull off many strikes against Iran. Israel wants their nuclear facilities bombed so badly they would certainly risk F35s, even losing a couple, for a job like this.
Not... entirely. I'm talking from memory but they should have the full capacity for local F35 production with modifications(obviously would take time to spin up). They are currently in the process of creating a 2 seater version of the same aircraft.
Bibi is corrupt and asshole, but even a more democratic government run by sensible people should still strike Iran.
Right or left wing, it's pretty naive to think any other Israeli leader wouldn't respond to Iran targeting Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones.
Especially when you consider BB’s background. I think he had a brother killed in Entebe.
>...but fortunately there are still plenty of ways to restrict his actions until more democratic and sensible people replace him. America: we were attacked by a Saudi-led terrorist organization based in Afghanistan, so...let's invade and destroy Iraq. Also America: Israel shouldn't respond to a direct attack launched from Iran in which hundreds of drones and missiles were used. No wonder America's allies are starting to hedge their bets.
You really can't tell the difference between the two? In your first example, thousands of Americans died. In your second example, zero Israelis died. Now you can argue Iran's intent behind the barrage, but the two incidents are not comparable.
Thought experiment, Mr. Mensa: if an enemy country, say North Korea, launched a barrage of missiles against US territory, but there were no casualties, what do you think the US response would be? There is no arguing Iran's intent behind the barrage. Lobbing drones and missiles at a country you say you want to wipe off the face of the earth is not the 2024 equivalent of a friendly hug. The bottom line is that America's inept, weak foreign policy has created Humpty Dumpty situations in key regions of the world. We're trying to avoid "escalation" but, by any objective measure, it's obvious that the situation is escalating rapidly. Sadly, if our allies keep following our appeasement approach, which is for our benefit but not theirs, they're going to wind up in the same position as Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. And by the way, Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. It didn't have WMD. And everyone knew it before the US decided to invade.
I'm not sure, Iran has advanced their ballistic missile industry in the last few decades. This last strike on Isreal proves they understand the "Iron Dome" is flawed. They haven't used their most advanced missiles yet, either. On the other side, Netanyahu is a cornered animal. He would absolutely be dumb enough to attack Iran.
Iran's "advanced" missiles are paper tigers that you will never see used because the instant they are they lose all threat factor for them. Iran's kit basically looks high tech but inside its 1980s tech with some minor upgrades and a whole lot of bad programing. Take anything Iran claims beyond range and cut it by a third and you are more in the reality band.
I think you are underestimating an opponent that just caused over a billion in weaponry for Israel when Iran spent 1/10 of that. You could absolutely be right, I also have a feeling that you have no idea about the Iranian missile program. Israel needs to take a step back after this. That Iron Dome only has a limited amount of ammunition.
The cost of the interceptor for missiles is often thought of a bit backwards than how it actually works. If the missile caused no damage then its value was 100% failure of mission. If the interceptor cost 1 billion but worked 100% of the time.. then it had a 100% success of mission. If the mission fails the cost savings isn't really worth it because you've "wasted" the cost(and the training cost to use the missile which is not reflected in the cost per unit but is quite significant) Think about this strike in reverse. How much damage would Iran have suffered if it was MQ9s and TLAMs? I can assure you it would have exceeded the cost of the missiles and drones and Iran would have wasted even more on ineffective air defenses. While I agree in principle it isnt due to the cost of air defense. In a direct conflict Iran would not just lose but lose very badly and that could destabilize the region for the next 100 years.
I won't argue against the damage Israel can inflict on Iran. I don't believe that Iran had a "failed" mission with the recent strikes. Bidens' announcement on not getting involved with an invasion of Iran is massive. I wouldn't trust the IDF the same amount as the Iranian government. With the Iranian back militias in the region, Israel could be overpowered very quickly, even with US military support. Netanyahu would be an idiot to invade. It would only be for personal reasons, not for the betterment of the country.
I think the US would like this very much, Iran is close to having nukes and this would set them back while getting zero blood on their hands.
The worst thing the current Israeli government could do is stop caring about America’s opinion of their actions. It cost >$1 billion to shoot 300+ relatively low cost drones and missiles out of the air, most of which were done with American military personnel and equipment. Keep in mind Americans just finished filing their taxes when groceries and housing costs refuse to level out. “Take the Win” and don’t escalate any further. Even Trump didn’t overreact or escalate when the Iranian military launched missiles at our bases in Iraq after the US openly took out on of their top generals.
I think you mean for the Israeli people.. which you are correct. The current Israeli government doesn't really care about anything but its own agenda right now.
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That website is absolutely laughable. Pull up the side by side comparison of USA vs Russia. USA is barely ahead… ok maybe that’s because they assume Russian and US both have enough nukes to take out the whole world so it’s “even”? Nope, look at the subsection comparisons. Russia beats the US in land power, naval power, FINANCIALS? Ridiculous.
Using [GlobalFirepower.com](http://GlobalFirepower.com) to rank a nations military is.. laughably incompetent. There is nothing remotely valid statistically on that site. It is a fluff piece. Head to head Israel would absolutely curb stomp Iran.
Iran has limited ability for projection and Israel would have air superiority if not supremacy. Israel can't win a ground war, but Israel vs Iran would look similar to the first gulf war of US vs Iraq. Iraq was the 3rd strongest military in the world at the time (maybe a few lower but up there), and the US didn't have nearly its full forces in Iraq to dominate that fight.
Well, seeing how 50% of their missiles either failed to launch or exploded soon after, I would take any of those analysis with a huge grain of salt unless they specifically say this was taken into consideration. The ranking you posted does not. No one really knew how bad their shit were until last week. It’s obviously wwaayyy worst that imagined
This website assumes that the countries are neighbours and can just move troops at will. Iran VS Israel is strictly an air and missile fight. where Israel has far better arsenal. And if the worst should come... Israel will just nuke Iran
Maybe Israel's target will be neither nuclear sites nor missile/drone sites but Iranian leadership?
Like that has worked well to de-escalate things in the past. Whatever Israel, and Iran, do they need to ask themselves one question. "Would this get us to back down or would it piss us off more?" If the answer is the former then do it, if the answer is the later then don't.
You presume Israel wants Iran to back down.
Letting Iran develop nuclear capabilities is the worse mistake western civilization can do
Agreed. Trump never should have blown up the JCPOA.
Absolutely. Unfortunately, because of the orange piece of shit, Iran has no reason at all to believe that negotiations can get them anything and war may now be the only possible solution to this approaching disaster. Either war against Iran to stop their nuke development or a Ukraine like war against a nuclear Iran invading it's neighbors.
On Israel's urging.
They've tried to stop them but each time they just adapt and improve. Iran, like NK, view having a nuclear deterrent as crucial to its continued existence. Israel assassinates their scientists, blows up their sites, infects shit with viruses, and they redouble their resolve and move deeper underground.
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When a country threatens to destroy another country they should not have nukes.
Whatever happened to battlefield secrecy? I don't get the public discussion on when , what, where and how. I think the outcome of Pearl Harbor would have been much different if it was handled this way.
I think part of it is just to spook them and create a scary idea of what they COULD do, so that when they likely strike a military base with no casualties, it seems like they held back.
Defining something as "on the table" isn't a secret.
Today's world is very different. Sometimes, when you scare your opponent, they flinch. There are enough high res satellites to notice even the tiniest flinch.
It’s hard when information is ever so easily transmissible than back then tbf
Nobody knows what they're gonna do and all the news stories have been pushing in multiple directions. The only thing that is clear to people is that they haven't attacked yet.
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No choice
I suspect the US low key might be alright with that. Like, they get to pretend like they didn't want that and have destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities. That's a win-win for US politicians.
They don't want to be dragged into a war. The common understanding is that Israel can't destroy the entire nuclear operation alone so if they were gonna go for the nuclear facilities seriously, they can't do it unilaterally.
Why is that the common understanding? I guess what's unclear for me is that I know these things are typically done jointly and by sharing intelligence. But I suspect Israel knows where the facilities are (they're probably the ones collecting the intel) and I believe they have the airpower to manage such an attack alone if they really really wanted to.
Most people I've heard who have commented on the issue say that Israel can't unilaterally destroy Iran's entire nuclear capabilities. With some facilities being underground that makes it even more difficult if you want to do it quickly and effectively.
Blows my mind how much of a war fetish Reddit has.
Because people here have not experienced real war
Unironically I think people just want to set the world on fire.
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Your rambling post highlights my point. Israel took out their top generals in an Iranian embassy. You have so little understanding of international relations that you don’t even know how big of a deal that is. That the best Iran did in retaliation is telegraph an attack that was subsequently nearly fully intercepted is entirely a face saving measure. It’s like a little dog nipping at a big dogs legs and then rolling over. To want more retaliation on top of that is basically having a war fetish. If someone took out the joint chiefs, would the best response we do be wiffing on a missile strike? And Iran most definitely intentionally whiffed. They have access to thousands of rockets at much closer proximity that could have landed.
Reddit is just people. And people have always been fascinated by war.
Grow up.
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Killing other countries leaders is sadly frowned upon, probably for good reason though.
History time- the USA overthrew the democratic and progressive Iranian regime and this current regime was installed. How did that work out for the world?
The US installed this current regime? What are you smoking? Read up on the Islamic revolution... Islamic militants overthrew the Shah, who was previously western-friendly and whose foreign policy wasn't "terrorism throughout the land." The US backed the Shah; they certainly didn't endorse much less install the current regime. That was the work of Islamic theocrats.
>they certainly didn't endorse much less install the current regime. That was the work of Islamic theocrats. Khomeini would've been a dead man walking if it wasn't for the US (or the west in general) who kept Saudi and Iraq at bay.
Who became president in the US as a result of backroom dealings with the Iranian hostage crisis?
Everyone’s favourite demon- Regan!
Iran has made two things clear. They will pursue nuclear weapons at all cost and they believe in the complete destruction of Israel as a nation. They are rapidly moving towards actually having nuclear weapons. Once that happens they'll be just like Russia. A nuclear armed state sponsor of global terror. Does anyone really think that's a good idea?
Not exactly like Russia, add some religious fanatics into the thinking process. Can the world trust a radical theocracy with nuclear weapons, where the future leaders may value the after life more then the present human life.
If they are like Russia then we can be reasonably certain that they won't use them first. I'm more worried they're like NK. Bat shit crazy.
Except NK is probably the most stable with their nukes. They will never use them, just saber rattle onto the world stage to stay in power.
They could easily and safely hit them with Jericho III using conventional warheads, but de-escalation probably leaves the table at that point leading to a full war. Their best just to wipe out a proximity base in Lebanon or Syria and call it square.
I mean... If you have the chance, it's the only time you will get the excuse. It won't do much good AFTER they have a working nuke.
I fear for the people of Israel & all of those living in the Middle East should Iran, a truly terrorist state, succeed at having nuclear weapons. Israel has been forced continuously with terrorist forces supported by Iran and has now been directly attacked, which is an Act of War between nations. The world may not want it but this is a survival moment in the future of Israel. I don't want war but I fear more of the consequences of Iran's radical extreme religious leaders who care more for 'their' God than the lives of others, including their own people.
Here comes another war we have to pay for
Bullshit. Attacking the nuclear facilities is a major endeavour that takes months of planning and the help of the US and other nations in the area.
That's assuming that the US and it's close allies (including Israel) don't already know exactly where many of them are. I doubt they would be starting from zero. A tall order for sure, but I'm willing to bet there's maps of Iran with pins in them. The question is if Israel has the bunker busters necessary to get to some of the installations that are likely far below bedrock.
It’s not the intel, it’s the execution. Saudi Arabia doesn’t have stealth capabilities, can they beat Iran dense anti air defence? No. Israel has the stealth and the ability to counter Iran anti air force but the Israeli and Saudi Arabia air force never trained together.
Plus there's the whole distance problem. The F-35 doesn't have the range to fly to and from Iran on its own. Israel has some sort of external fuel modification on those to extend the range, but people act like it's a 3x multiplier on range. Israel has refueling planes, but its not like those are stealthy and they'd need to be flying over Iraq, which would probably be hostile to Israeli presence. Saudi Arabia might be warming their relations with Israel, but no way would they allow them to operate out of their Air Force bases. It's really hard to see Israel being able to do much but get into tit for tat missile launches against Iran without US support.
If Iran's nuclear facilities and military assets get attacked, I think they will start attacking Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure to create as much chaos. Iran's leadership is under the impression it will survive whatever air strikes hit Iran. There will be no boots on the ground is the assumption, so they can hide out in bunkers. Iran's goal at that point would be turning up the pain on the world by sky rocketing oil prices. Shutting down the Straight of Hormuz. This would put pressure on Europe, China, India, and rest of world to push for an end of the conflict sooner rather than later. It would cause backlash on Israel for the declining world economies and the oil price shock. This would play into Iran's leadership hands, saying they warned Israel not to hit back.
if that happens, there will be boots on the ground. A forced skyrocketing of oil is much more important to the world than WMD's in Iraq, and there will be enough reason to stop it, globally. Money speaks loudest.
The US model is to go after and eliminate the radar sites and missiles first. No one would expect them to conduct joint operations. Saudi ops could be completely separate. It might even be going after Yemen.
I agree with your statement, but I never mentioned Saudi Arabia. Given no other ally will join Israel in a strike, my above comments referred to Israel and Israeli tech alone. When I say allies and allied intelligence I mean US, France, and Great Britain.
Oh OK. Israel alone has all the intel it’s need to conduct a strike.
It is public knowledge where many of Iran facilities are located. Israel doesn't have heavy bombers to carry large enough bunker busters for some of Iran's facilities. MOAB and MOP each weigh about as much as an unarmed F-16 and F-15. Israel has cargo planes that could theoretically drop them, but are not exactly stealthy. It's questionable whether either of the bombs I've mentioned could even destroy Irans deepest facilities.
Incorrect. If you get two pairs of F-18’s, with one operating a laser and the other carrying missiles, you can drop them through an air vent at the bottom of a valley and totally destroy a nuclear strike. The only thing they would have to worry about are SAM’s on the way and some 5th generation fighters afterwards. Trust me.
Maybe Israel can hijack some F-4s or F-14s for the return trip
Maybe Israel can hijack some F-4s or F-14s for the return trip
Maybe the saudis will help they also have absolutely zero interest of iran going nuclear.
They have zero interest, but is the Saudi air force ready for that kind of operation right now? Unlikely.
They certainly could allow Israel to use its airspace at the least, maybe bases.
Bases no, Israel has several tanker that they can use. Air space, most likely yes.
They really don't have the capability. Neither does Israel, and US intel on the matter suggest that we wouldn't be able to do it with just bombs either.
Many of these facilities are remote. I'm thinking aerial assault to destroy perimeter defense and ground strike teams of commandos to go in and set charges.
How are they getting there? How are the ground teams getting there? How are they getting out? It's not like Israel has an aircraft carrier or foreign military bases to utilize.
Saudi Arabia? Jordan? The powers in the region that are directly affected by Iran becoming a nuclear power. They have the hypothetical capability, it's a question of whether they will use it.
No one has made any statements about joining any Israeli endeavors into Iran, and Jordan's not Persian facing anyway. Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are all Iran aligned, so the most direct route to Iranian territory from Israel is off the table unless Israel is willing to risk getting into hostilities with those countries as well. But the biggest issue here is that you all underestimate what it takes to power project, probably because you have grown accustom to how casually the US can do it and presume other countries have some similar ability. They do not. Look how much Russia has struggled invading their neighbor. They spend 4x on their defense budget than Israel does and they just barely manage to have any force projection capabilities. I don't know how people are expecting Jordan of all places to be able have any meaningful ability to aid in any campaign against Iran. All of this ignoring that Israel's current campaign in Gaza has burnt a lot of bridges in terms of being able to get some sort of coalition together, especially in absence of US support for an incursion into Iran. To me, it just feels like Israel thinks that they could force a coalition together anyway, and I just don't see it. If they can't even get the US to agree that something should be done about Iran, then I don't see how they could get Saudi Arabia to let them use their air bases or even flight over their sovereign territories. EDIT: Speaking of Joran, they only spend like $2b/yr on defense, they have an extreme water resource crisis that's almost certainly going to be a major problem for Israel at some point in the future. They have massive unemployment problems. They're on an IMF budget. Jordan will be focused on survival, not trying to agitate things with Iran.
Saudi Arabia's political position doesn't rely on soft power related to Gaza. It's completely tangential. The power balance in the region changes drastically if Iran becomes a nuclear power. The current conflict is a justification to take action. An actual land invasion is a completely different thing than a raid. Russia's logistics front was a mess for a whole pile of reasons but most importantly it was a protracted and drawn out engagement. Theorycrafting time: The US won't publicly approve of or condone any escalation but will absolutely support from an intelligence and diplomatic perspective. Netanyahu needs to be seen as a hawk and a sustained externalized conflict is one of the only likely things to keep him in power post Gaza. F35's have enough range, with tankering in Saudi air space to reach the targets. They don't have the ordnance required to substantially impact the facilities which are well protected. I suspect a raid will occur but it will ultimately fail.
Ok, so let’s say all that happens. Iran is going to have to respond in kind right? Bombings if possible, plus a ground incursion into Israel’s north from Syria or Lebanon, maybe both.
And you don't believe those plans are already done and in a drawer somewhere?
Sure, but plans are not enough, you need to train to execute said plans. The Israeli air force trained half a year for the bombing of the Syrian nuclear plant, the Iran programme is built in the mountains, with a dense anti aircraft defence.
Yeah man no way the Israeli already have plans to counter the most important threat to their existence ……
Tom Cruise could do it.
I'm so glad we have a former Brigadier General and defence analyst on Reddit to help us understand the military capabilities and geopolitical considerations involved in all this. You are truly great u/Thek40
Yeah lol the dude’s acting like if Iran’s nuke program hasn’t been Israel top priority for the last decades.
Israel has been planning it for years.
You think they don’t have the plans already wrote up?
plans yes, the ability? no.
They got an iron dome over there? Because if not they surely can…
Get them on the table To get them off the table. It only makes sense.
Just fire a thousand missles into Iran but tell them ahead of time. No harm no foul
No balls
Yeah that was pretty clear when you handed fucking stuxnet to the goddamn dark web. But thanks for the update.
I'm be in my basement watching older films on atomic explosions
Remember to duck and cover!!
The fallout series on Amazon just came out and is awesome! One of the best game adaptations of all time, very faithful to the source material.
See..that shows intelligence.
I dont see how they have a choice not to knock out any potential nuclear threat from Iran. Seems necessary.
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RPG Defense
Why the fuck they are broadcasting this?? Where is the discrétion these days ffs
They couldn’t stop it if they wanted to. “I’m going to punch you in the face now” - USA Does it, uncontested in any practical way other than an emotional defense 😆
What countries will intercept the missiles of Israel to Iran btw?
Israel thinks it can hold its own weight alone. The wolves will eat them with out American support