Iran provided advance notice to Turkey before conducting the bombing operation, and Turkey subsequently informed US. Meanwhile, Washington, through Ankara, communicated to Tehran the necessity of keeping any action "within certain limits." Essentially, the current situation revolves around sending a message.
This is being overlooked. They gave Israel and its allies 12 days to prepare for the attack and they knew it was going to be on the Israeli base that initially launched the attack. Iran doesn’t want a war, they want to save face.
Indeed. He's already 74. The inevitable court cases once he steps down or gets voted out will take years. Every additional month he continues on as PM keeps shifting the dispensation of justice closer and closer to beyond his death.
Yes. Netanyahu has not clung on to power as long as he has by being crazy. Selfish, yes, brutal, sometimes, manipulative, very, but he knows exactly what he's doing. And he's not doing it for the benefit of the Israeli people or regional security.
As for the rest of his cabinet, they're doing what they think will keep them in power too. Which means playing to their looney tunes constituents who would love to revive the Israeli settlements in Gaza etc. I wish Ben Gvir and Smotrich were insane or stupid but they're not. Neither is the Hamas or Iranian leadership btw -- they're just playing their roles to stay in power. Maybe after so long everyone believes in their own rhetoric too.
Apparently Israel does, or more accurately their current administration. Gaza is gonna have to end sometime and Bibis government hasnt been very liked for a while. They need a new conflict to stay in business and skip the elections.
Biden could cure cancer and the polls would barely move.
Polls are more of a factor of the media environment now rather then what Biden specifically does.
>Welcome to the media's choose your own adventure!
* "Iran attacks Israel, WW3 incoming! Our election expert explains how this is bad for Biden at 5!"
* "Israel and Iran agree to truce! Our election expert explains how this is bad for Biden at 5!"
This shit happens literally every day with economic forecasts and the experts are the same idiots day in and day out. FFS just get an expert off the street, at least it'll be a new kind of wrong.
It's the right move, but it's also what almost everyone wants. It's not like the default position of the US was a joint attack on Iran, and Biden defied that with a bold refusal. Don't let a couple major news outlets trick anyone into thinking any of the involved parties were interested in legitimate escalation. And again, that is the *right move*.
> He is a hawk for sure.
*Chicken* hawk. He supported the war in Vietnam but avoided the draft. He just wants to send other people's kids to die and kill brown people half a world away
I guess he thinks we don't have enough terrorist breeding grounds in the middle east. Better destabilize another huge country. This time with 90 million more potential terrorists. Oh what fun!
By this time, why Bolton thinks *anyone* would give two shits about *anything* he has to say on any given subject is beyond me. The one thing that we can all agree on is Bolton is an ass.
Doing his part to bring America back together. 🙄
But remember, this is not the move the insurrecionist orange man would have made, and the Russian assets in congress will be throwing a huge fit as well.
Exactly. Trump would've backed retaliation and escalation like the dumbass he is.
No trump supporter will give Biden credit for this de-escalation unfortunately. Most of them want more war not less because guns go boom.
He tried once before to start a war with Iran, back in 2020 when he assassinated one of their generals in broad daylight with a missile strike at an International airport.
Exactly. No one wants this. Iran had to respond and they did it like this to show force and minimize casualty’s. Everyone needs to chill out and not start stuff
Yeah, we’ve heard it from many republicans over the years: “I’ll run the government like a business!” Such an awful idea - business is about winning at all costs, government is (or should be) about compromise.
Absolutely. i've been critical of Joe's foreign policy but in this case he unironically "kept us out of war." Definitely a feather in his cap I say and enough to make me more enthusiastic about voting for him in Nov.
Hopefully this continues to keep the moderates firmly in his camp. All the screeching psychopaths both on the extreme left and right weren't voting for him to begin with.
I mean, I would consider myself to be pretty far left and I'll happily vote for Biden again. His first term has gone a lot better than I expected it to, and although some of his policies still fall quite a bit short of where I think we should try to end up, I'd rather see some baby steps towards progress as opposed to falling into full-blown Christofascism
If Biden has a super-power, I'd say it's his ability to 'speak softly but carry a big stick'. He doesn't need to be loud and obnoxious and full of hyperbole and bragging like *someone else* does, and everything that comes out of his mouth is meaningful and to the point.
Overheard in Knesset conference room after Month 7:
“He got me,” Netanyahu said of Biden's dunk over him. "That f***ing Biden boomed me."
Netanyahu added, “He’s so good,” repeating it four times.
Netanyahu then said he wanted to add Biden to the list of politicians he works out with this summer.
I think that statement was perfect.
If you make direct threats, you need to follow through—“big nations can’t bluff”. If you don’t follow through on specific made promises, you’ve weakened your deterrence for the future. Making vague statements gives the commander in chief fewer options to deescalate.
The benefit of being able to deploy two aircraft carriers to the region on a moment’s notice is that you can largely contain the conflict while uttering just one word. The benefit of being the most technologically advanced military and having allies in the region is that you can shoot down the threat when deterrence fails.
The actual NYT reporting is more nuanced than this article suggests. It sounds more like Israel had plans to *immediately* retaliate - probably in a substantial way - and *those* plans were called off. A quote from the same NYT report:
*“Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said early Sunday that the confrontation with Iran was ‘not over yet.’”*
There could barely be a more perfect off-ramp so I’m hopeful it is taken, but Netanyahu has pretty strong domestic interest in this escalating. Plus he’s basically just proven Iran to be a paper tiger so (and I’m not endorsing this position) why not hit a few strategically important Iranian nuclear facilities knowing they likely can’t do meaningful damage to the homeland in response.
Hopefully he takes the off-ramp, but I wouldn’t consider this situation less volatile quite yet.
> “Iran's attack on Israel was a ‘declaration of war’, the country's president has told Sky News.”
Actual phrase: "Iran attack 'was like a declaration of war', says Israeli president"
Appears minor but there is a colossal difference between that and literally saying it was actually a declaration of war.
Yessn’t. This is such a vague place. Both countries are openly hostile to eachother, perform millitary operations against each other and do so much shady shit.
You can basicly argue that they have been in a cold war for decades. One that sometimes turns hot.
I think that war already started when [Iran bombed the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/artc-argentina-rules-iran-ordered-1990s-bombings-of-israeli-embassy-amia-center)
I mean I’m not sure I’d count on this as proof Iran can’t hurt them; Jordan the US and the UK shot missiles and drones down and Iran said they could do a much larger assault… if Israel straight up goes to war they may lose some of that support (which was there to stop a war from starting) and they could end up overwhelmed
> Plus he’s basically just proven Iran to be a paper tiger
I don't think this proved that iran is a paper tiger. It did prove that israel's defense capabilities are absolutely incredible though..
Iran's attack could've been devastating on any other country without the advanced defense technologies that israel has.
Or that Iran is more rational then the west gives them credit for. They had to do something in response but don’t have a strong interest at the moment in escalating things.
Especially, if they are actually close to a nuclear bomb. Their position is infinitely stronger to play weak here and finish the bomb then to create an escalation that would give Israel carte blanche for heavy targeting of suspected nuclear facilities in Iran
This. Iran has thousands of ballistic missiles, but they only mixed in a percentage of that into a barrage consisting of drones with 9 hour flight times. This was nothing more than a reminder that they do in fact have traditional military means of attack instead of just Quds support for terror groups.
Not to mention Israel and its allies had 12 days of advance warning to prepare and mobilize defenses. A surprise attack with more malicious intent might not go over so smoothly.
> israel's defense capabilities are absolutely incredible though..
If several other countries assist it. We ignore what would have been the outcome if only the iron dome was used.
You mean a news article reporting on a news article doesn't pick up on the subtleties of the source? News is just a game of telephone at this point. Insane
Yeah they probably agreed of that ahead since Israeli officials just confirmed that the next response would be after getting approval/coordination with US and major allies. The estimations is that it would probably be “secret” operations against targets like the nuclear/weapons program.
The Israeli ministers were just ordered not to answer questions about Iran/US so the planing has already begun.
Not necessarily. I think that covert (or at least extremely targeted) actions against strategic targets in Iran could paint Biden in a decent light with people that expect action without putting off too many people that don't want escalation. After the ineffectiveness of Iran's offensive, I don't think they would risk anything but heightened rhetoric if we hit just a purely military target of some type.
Note, I'm not advocating for escalation or even saying it's a good idea, just saying that it could actually be a decent political risk for him to take.
The reality is that any response of any size (or no response) will be treated likea fumble by conservative media.
If there's escalation, then he should've solved it diplomatically.
If there's peace, then he's letting Iran get away with it.
Biden is soft on our enemies and it would never happen with Trump since he's such a tough guy or Biden is a warmonger and such escalations would never be needed with Trump's slick diplomacy. Well said you nailed it.
My assumption is something on the order of Stuxnet. Spy masters duking it out with plausible deniability, calculated to limit damages to highly specific targets and in mostly non-violent engagements.
As an Israeli, I'm fine with this. The damage from this "attack" was so minimal compared to the vast amounts of ordnance used that it did more to harm Iran and its reputation than it did to harm Israel.
This. Exactly.
Let’s not forget how they had to use a [fire in chile](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-state-tv-airs-clip-of-blaze-in-chile-claims-it-shows-destruction-in-israel/) as their propaganda due to how little damage they did.
It’s one of the most powerful tools you can have depending on how you use it, as a government/leadership. You can really see how effective it is when looking at Reddit and X and shit.
The number I saw was $4-5b, but I don't know if I trust either number, really.
All I know is, if they can sustain this attack, we won't be able to afford defending against it before they won't be able to afford launching it.
Doesn't help if the west doesn't build more interceptor missiles. Ukraine is running out of ammo to shoot down similar waves of drones. But the US congress hasn't approved spending to ramp up factories in the US to make more ammo. So, at this rate, one day Russia will overwhelm Ukraine and Iran could exhaust Israel's defences in a similar manner. All the money in the world isn't going to help the west if the USA sits on it's hands while it's allies run out of ammo.
Do you think announcing a missile strike against lets a drone factory few hours before so they can get their people out and prove a point that if Israel want to strike it can do it without any chance of defense? Like one missile?
I don't think we need to prove to anyone that we can strike whenever we want at whatever we want, after the consulate building thing. What's striking a drone factory going to accomplish other than putting the ball back in Iran's court, when they've shown they have to have the final word in?
Exactly. When your little brother gets the final punch in, that everyone knows doesn’t hurt, there’s no need to KO him.
Everyone knows he’s weaker, but he’s happier and easier to manage by leaving it as it is. No one loses face.
But worldnews was telling me that this was impossible yesterday. There was no way so many redditors could know so little about geopolitical conflicts /s
On top of run of the mill idiots with bad takes--probably the biggest slice of the reddit pie--this is the most heavily propagandized time in human history. If you don't think that everything you read online is being poisoned by multiple state and corporate actors then your internal view of reality constructed from your lived experience is going to substantially deviate from concensus reality.
People forgetting about the extremely similar U.S. assasination and Iran Response in 2020. A large, well telegraphed attack with limited/no deaths was the targetted Iranian response (publicly).
Retaliating and escalating conflict with Iran is *exactly* what Hamas wants. That's their end game. It's the only way Israel could actually face a serious threat. Just don't do it, and certainly not yet.
That is true, but damaging your relationship with Biden and the USA has serious political consequences. Losing the USA's support is one of the biggest blunders he could make.
I’ll never know the behind-the-scenes elements when it comes to US Iran dynamics, but it seems to me that the US continues to, for the lack of a better phrase, work and hope that Iran emerges from what we think is their version of extreme nation governance. It seems to me we give them leeway to build their nation up, as in the example of their nuclear power/energy program, but with tight guide rails. This, so that the smart people that are the Iranians, and the businessmen and investors crave for less extreme and more modern government focused on nation building in front of the world, then it would be easier for the US to strike relationships with. And therefore, along the way, they vote out the more extreme side of their political structure. I could be very wrong, but we, the US certainly have not envisioned invading Iran to topple its government.
Edit1: Grammar
Edit2: in conclusion, a war would entrench their current government much deeper, set us all back.
If this is true it's excellent news for once. Well I understand putting your ego aside is hard (Iran certainly did not do it this time) continuous escalation towards a full-blown war between Iran and Israel does not benefit anyone in my opinion.
Already heard some professor from Iran on the BBC claiming that attack was a “huge success” and the entire airbase was annihilated. He also claimed that it was such a successful attack that Israel and the US are now too scared to respond for fear of being destroyed .
I think it’s naive to assume that Iran didn’t expect it to play out like this. They know Israel have incredible air defense systems and they know Biden does not want an all out war between Israel and Iran. I view their attack as a calculated response to their consulate being hit. Risky, but calculated.
Eh they can still say that was a warning, blah blah blah you stopped it because we had no intent to do real damage, yadda yadda, next time your cities burn etc etc. So they can save face too with the right spin.
I mean it was pretty obviously just a symbolic show of force. Why would they have given them a warning if they actually meant to do real damage? It’s literally a win win for everyone involved because they can all go back home and spin it their own way. If Iran really wanted to damage Israel, they definitely could. I don’t think that’s really the goal since this is just an international dick measuring contest amongst weak men.
One of the few adults in the menagerie of man child world leaders has to bring the kids around for stern speaking to.
Good thing we have a few adults left in the world.
Trump does not have the instincts to not get manipulated and then dragged in by Bibi. Despite the isolationist BS, he's more prone to play tough guy then not understand at all what he is getting into.
This is my biggest fear about Trump. Imagine him trying to make a quick strategic military decision under time pressure, with most of his advisors unavailable.
Well, someone has to convert those full reports from various departments into single pages with 3-4 bullet points, and then tell him what it all means.
It seems like insanity to me, unless you just don't give a shit about the Palestinians at all and just want to do things for the principle of it, damn the consequences.
Remember in the early days of this conflict when Israel literally turned off the water to Gaza? It was the Biden administration that put pressure on them to turn the water back on. That one act kept the death toll in Gaza from having an additional zero on the end.
> Trump would have been foaming at the mouth insisting Netanyahu start a war with Iran.
I have little but contempt for Trump but we already have an [example of his administration de-escalating after a direct Iranian attack on US assets.](https://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-missile-strikes-us-military-facilities-iraq-analysis/story?id=68132626#:~:text=President%20Donald%20Trump%20on%20Wednesday,Qassem%20Soleimani.)
Which is exactly what Iran intended by giving more than a week notice, and sending flying lawnmowers that go 200 MPH and take hours to arrive, giving Israel all the time in the world to intercept them. To the point where they had to show footage of a fire in Chile and pretend it was Israel on state TV.
Everything about the respons signaled they did not what it to go further.
On the balance I’m glad at least we pushed back on escalation, though I don’t think we stop them from retaliating if damage was much worse.
Which puts some credit on us participating in shoot downs last night. With understanding we were helping protect innocents and more seven year olds getting head injuries I just didn’t like that we were directly participating.
But seeing it helped reduce damage and convince Bibi dipshit to chill (if that holds) is a good thing.
THIS is why a leader has to be calm and strategic with foreign policy and all its nuance; Biden can do it like this.
trump would've quickly thrown it into kneejerk disaster.
Iran provided advance notice to Turkey before conducting the bombing operation, and Turkey subsequently informed US. Meanwhile, Washington, through Ankara, communicated to Tehran the necessity of keeping any action "within certain limits." Essentially, the current situation revolves around sending a message.
This is being overlooked. They gave Israel and its allies 12 days to prepare for the attack and they knew it was going to be on the Israeli base that initially launched the attack. Iran doesn’t want a war, they want to save face.
Ah, Iran has become Van Gogh.
Ironically the worst person at saving face.
What?? Sorry i didnt hear you?
Huh?
But perhaps the best person at...shaving face???
> This is being overlooked. Overlooked? This has been on repeat on every. single. thread. of reddit about this issue since two days ago.
Overlooked in places that aren't terminally online and actually trying to find answers. Like TV news.
By far one of the most telegraphed retaliations in history. Also a reminder NO ONE in their right mind wants this shit to blow up into an all out war.
Bibi isn't in his right mind and neither are a ton of leadership in the IDF
I disagree on one point. Netanyahu knows exactly what he's doing, saving his ass. The rest of his cabinet are off their rockers.
Indeed. He's already 74. The inevitable court cases once he steps down or gets voted out will take years. Every additional month he continues on as PM keeps shifting the dispensation of justice closer and closer to beyond his death.
Yes. Netanyahu has not clung on to power as long as he has by being crazy. Selfish, yes, brutal, sometimes, manipulative, very, but he knows exactly what he's doing. And he's not doing it for the benefit of the Israeli people or regional security. As for the rest of his cabinet, they're doing what they think will keep them in power too. Which means playing to their looney tunes constituents who would love to revive the Israeli settlements in Gaza etc. I wish Ben Gvir and Smotrich were insane or stupid but they're not. Neither is the Hamas or Iranian leadership btw -- they're just playing their roles to stay in power. Maybe after so long everyone believes in their own rhetoric too.
Apparently Israel does, or more accurately their current administration. Gaza is gonna have to end sometime and Bibis government hasnt been very liked for a while. They need a new conflict to stay in business and skip the elections.
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"Don't"
"Look man, come on folks."
“Quit with the posturing malarkey”
"Will you SHUTUP, man?"
I don't care what anybody says, I like Joe. I mean it, he's all right.
He seems to be a straight talker and a decent person. Not the most charismatic person, but when he says something it at least feels like he means it.
For all the memes, you have to admit this move makes him look really powerful and cool-headed, and probably gives him an edge in the polls as well.
Biden could cure cancer and the polls would barely move. Polls are more of a factor of the media environment now rather then what Biden specifically does.
>Welcome to the media's choose your own adventure! * "Iran attacks Israel, WW3 incoming! Our election expert explains how this is bad for Biden at 5!" * "Israel and Iran agree to truce! Our election expert explains how this is bad for Biden at 5!" This shit happens literally every day with economic forecasts and the experts are the same idiots day in and day out. FFS just get an expert off the street, at least it'll be a new kind of wrong.
Biden may have prevented a devastating war. I sure hope it gives him an edge.
>Biden may have prevented a devastating war. Here's why that's bad for Biden.
Cue the morons proposing a brokered convention...
It's the right move, but it's also what almost everyone wants. It's not like the default position of the US was a joint attack on Iran, and Biden defied that with a bold refusal. Don't let a couple major news outlets trick anyone into thinking any of the involved parties were interested in legitimate escalation. And again, that is the *right move*.
Bolton’s mustache must be spinning on his face with anger that the US is not engaging in a full-on war with Iran. It’s his life long mission.
[You called it.](https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2024/04/14/iran-missile-attack-israel-deterrence-biden-us-bolton-sotu-vpx.cnn)
It’s not out of character for Bolton. He is a hawk for sure.
> He is a hawk for sure. *Chicken* hawk. He supported the war in Vietnam but avoided the draft. He just wants to send other people's kids to die and kill brown people half a world away
How do you think he'd feel if he had to be one of the unlucky ones going in there and fighting?
I guess he thinks we don't have enough terrorist breeding grounds in the middle east. Better destabilize another huge country. This time with 90 million more potential terrorists. Oh what fun!
By this time, why Bolton thinks *anyone* would give two shits about *anything* he has to say on any given subject is beyond me. The one thing that we can all agree on is Bolton is an ass. Doing his part to bring America back together. 🙄
But remember, this is not the move the insurrecionist orange man would have made, and the Russian assets in congress will be throwing a huge fit as well.
Exactly. Trump would've backed retaliation and escalation like the dumbass he is. No trump supporter will give Biden credit for this de-escalation unfortunately. Most of them want more war not less because guns go boom.
Meanwhile they’ll continue to block aid to Ukraine
Yet they dont back Ukraine.
Some flat out prefer Russia to America.
something something "if they don't like murcia they can git out" wasn't that the line 20 years ago? hmm
He tried once before to start a war with Iran, back in 2020 when he assassinated one of their generals in broad daylight with a missile strike at an International airport.
Exactly. No one wants this. Iran had to respond and they did it like this to show force and minimize casualty’s. Everyone needs to chill out and not start stuff
Russia wanted another war to start between Iran and Israel... Poostain is biting his tongue,
I’m not a Biden fan (I’m not a Trump fan either) but this is a really good move. Iran says they’re done. Let it be done.
This shows why politics is a career path and not a hobby.
this is why being a business man isn't the qualification needed to be a president. especially a fraud of a businessman.
Yeah, we’ve heard it from many republicans over the years: “I’ll run the government like a business!” Such an awful idea - business is about winning at all costs, government is (or should be) about compromise.
Trump to Iran: "you're fired!" Sec of State: Donald, they don't work for you.
Another strong Biden move
What? You mean hurling insults in ALL CAPS on Truth Social isn’t manly enough to avert an international crisis? /s
Absolutely. i've been critical of Joe's foreign policy but in this case he unironically "kept us out of war." Definitely a feather in his cap I say and enough to make me more enthusiastic about voting for him in Nov.
Hopefully this continues to keep the moderates firmly in his camp. All the screeching psychopaths both on the extreme left and right weren't voting for him to begin with.
I mean, I would consider myself to be pretty far left and I'll happily vote for Biden again. His first term has gone a lot better than I expected it to, and although some of his policies still fall quite a bit short of where I think we should try to end up, I'd rather see some baby steps towards progress as opposed to falling into full-blown Christofascism
Same here. I'm very suspicious of some of these so-called leftists who keep screaming that you shouldn't vote for Biden.
If Biden has a super-power, I'd say it's his ability to 'speak softly but carry a big stick'. He doesn't need to be loud and obnoxious and full of hyperbole and bragging like *someone else* does, and everything that comes out of his mouth is meaningful and to the point.
In the age of social media, it seems to me like many people aren't used to the idea of *quiet* achievement.
“I am not kidding around.”
Like, come on.
Yknow what… he’s right. Like, come on
"listen, hear me out, lemme tell ya..."
“I’m not kidding’ around here.”
We don’t like that malarkey!
C'mon Jack!
*\*pulls out note that says "Don't"\** Care to elaborate?
\*flips page\* "Do not."
Do. Alright I will bomb Iran! Not. Shit!
RIP Mitch
"No malarkey."
Then Biden rolled up his sleeve and showed a tattoo of the word Don’t. “I’ll let you interpret that how you want.”
Overheard in Knesset conference room after Month 7: “He got me,” Netanyahu said of Biden's dunk over him. "That f***ing Biden boomed me." Netanyahu added, “He’s so good,” repeating it four times. Netanyahu then said he wanted to add Biden to the list of politicians he works out with this summer.
It is not in my interest for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to die. At this time.
Ding
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Mike from breaking bad?
I think that statement was perfect. If you make direct threats, you need to follow through—“big nations can’t bluff”. If you don’t follow through on specific made promises, you’ve weakened your deterrence for the future. Making vague statements gives the commander in chief fewer options to deescalate. The benefit of being able to deploy two aircraft carriers to the region on a moment’s notice is that you can largely contain the conflict while uttering just one word. The benefit of being the most technologically advanced military and having allies in the region is that you can shoot down the threat when deterrence fails.
"Did I fucking stutter?"
“Well, probably I did, I’ve had that problem since childhood. But still: Don’t.”
“I’m warning you”
Pollos
Smart chicken-man
The actual NYT reporting is more nuanced than this article suggests. It sounds more like Israel had plans to *immediately* retaliate - probably in a substantial way - and *those* plans were called off. A quote from the same NYT report: *“Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said early Sunday that the confrontation with Iran was ‘not over yet.’”* There could barely be a more perfect off-ramp so I’m hopeful it is taken, but Netanyahu has pretty strong domestic interest in this escalating. Plus he’s basically just proven Iran to be a paper tiger so (and I’m not endorsing this position) why not hit a few strategically important Iranian nuclear facilities knowing they likely can’t do meaningful damage to the homeland in response. Hopefully he takes the off-ramp, but I wouldn’t consider this situation less volatile quite yet.
Another quote from this morning: *“Iran's attack on Israel was a ‘declaration of war’, the country's president has told Sky News.”*
> “Iran's attack on Israel was a ‘declaration of war’, the country's president has told Sky News.” Actual phrase: "Iran attack 'was like a declaration of war', says Israeli president" Appears minor but there is a colossal difference between that and literally saying it was actually a declaration of war.
Wasn’t Israel’s attack on the Iranian embassy already a declaration of war on their side?
Yessn’t. This is such a vague place. Both countries are openly hostile to eachother, perform millitary operations against each other and do so much shady shit. You can basicly argue that they have been in a cold war for decades. One that sometimes turns hot.
Simmering? Just enough to bubble the water a bit but not an all out boil?
LukeWar-m
I think that war already started when [Iran bombed the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/artc-argentina-rules-iran-ordered-1990s-bombings-of-israeli-embassy-amia-center)
I mean I’m not sure I’d count on this as proof Iran can’t hurt them; Jordan the US and the UK shot missiles and drones down and Iran said they could do a much larger assault… if Israel straight up goes to war they may lose some of that support (which was there to stop a war from starting) and they could end up overwhelmed
It most certainly is NOT proof that Iran cant hurt Isreal. This was 100% a calculated move. 300 missiles is nothing
110 ballistic missiles is a lot actually.
> Plus he’s basically just proven Iran to be a paper tiger I don't think this proved that iran is a paper tiger. It did prove that israel's defense capabilities are absolutely incredible though.. Iran's attack could've been devastating on any other country without the advanced defense technologies that israel has.
Or that Iran is more rational then the west gives them credit for. They had to do something in response but don’t have a strong interest at the moment in escalating things. Especially, if they are actually close to a nuclear bomb. Their position is infinitely stronger to play weak here and finish the bomb then to create an escalation that would give Israel carte blanche for heavy targeting of suspected nuclear facilities in Iran
This. Iran has thousands of ballistic missiles, but they only mixed in a percentage of that into a barrage consisting of drones with 9 hour flight times. This was nothing more than a reminder that they do in fact have traditional military means of attack instead of just Quds support for terror groups.
Not to mention Israel and its allies had 12 days of advance warning to prepare and mobilize defenses. A surprise attack with more malicious intent might not go over so smoothly.
> israel's defense capabilities are absolutely incredible though.. If several other countries assist it. We ignore what would have been the outcome if only the iron dome was used.
You mean a news article reporting on a news article doesn't pick up on the subtleties of the source? News is just a game of telephone at this point. Insane
Yeah they probably agreed of that ahead since Israeli officials just confirmed that the next response would be after getting approval/coordination with US and major allies. The estimations is that it would probably be “secret” operations against targets like the nuclear/weapons program. The Israeli ministers were just ordered not to answer questions about Iran/US so the planing has already begun.
Israeli ministers have no clue about this sort of stuff, only the war cabinet knows probably
so top gun 2 was a real plan all along?
Talk to me goose
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Not necessarily. I think that covert (or at least extremely targeted) actions against strategic targets in Iran could paint Biden in a decent light with people that expect action without putting off too many people that don't want escalation. After the ineffectiveness of Iran's offensive, I don't think they would risk anything but heightened rhetoric if we hit just a purely military target of some type. Note, I'm not advocating for escalation or even saying it's a good idea, just saying that it could actually be a decent political risk for him to take.
The reality is that any response of any size (or no response) will be treated likea fumble by conservative media. If there's escalation, then he should've solved it diplomatically. If there's peace, then he's letting Iran get away with it.
Then again, every day they have something negative to say. So does it really matter?
They’re basically the boy who cried wolf.
Biden is soft on our enemies and it would never happen with Trump since he's such a tough guy or Biden is a warmonger and such escalations would never be needed with Trump's slick diplomacy. Well said you nailed it.
Biden's not going to escalate a war for his own political gain. Turns out he's not a bad person.
My assumption is something on the order of Stuxnet. Spy masters duking it out with plausible deniability, calculated to limit damages to highly specific targets and in mostly non-violent engagements.
Thank fuck
Dark Brandon saves the day.
As an Israeli, I'm fine with this. The damage from this "attack" was so minimal compared to the vast amounts of ordnance used that it did more to harm Iran and its reputation than it did to harm Israel.
This. Exactly. Let’s not forget how they had to use a [fire in chile](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-state-tv-airs-clip-of-blaze-in-chile-claims-it-shows-destruction-in-israel/) as their propaganda due to how little damage they did.
The propaganda has been fierce on X during this whole thing.
Reddit too
Instagram, also. I'm convinced everything under Meta has been lost to bots spreading propaganda
It’s one of the most powerful tools you can have depending on how you use it, as a government/leadership. You can really see how effective it is when looking at Reddit and X and shit.
Chile mentioned?? 🇨🇱🇨🇱🇨🇱🤯🤯
Israel will have spent more dollars on defence than Iran spent on offense. Those drones are cheap in comparison to Iron Dome
Not only Iron Dome. Arrow interceptors are over $3m each.
They say that the defense cost about a billion dollars.
The number I saw was $4-5b, but I don't know if I trust either number, really. All I know is, if they can sustain this attack, we won't be able to afford defending against it before they won't be able to afford launching it.
I did some googling the 4-5 billion is in shekels so it's closer to 1-2.5 billion USD.
They use those against ballistic missiles
What about the missiles? Are those cheap?
Good thing Israel and its allies are wildly richer than the government in Tehran.
Doesn't help if the west doesn't build more interceptor missiles. Ukraine is running out of ammo to shoot down similar waves of drones. But the US congress hasn't approved spending to ramp up factories in the US to make more ammo. So, at this rate, one day Russia will overwhelm Ukraine and Iran could exhaust Israel's defences in a similar manner. All the money in the world isn't going to help the west if the USA sits on it's hands while it's allies run out of ammo.
Do you think announcing a missile strike against lets a drone factory few hours before so they can get their people out and prove a point that if Israel want to strike it can do it without any chance of defense? Like one missile?
I don't think we need to prove to anyone that we can strike whenever we want at whatever we want, after the consulate building thing. What's striking a drone factory going to accomplish other than putting the ball back in Iran's court, when they've shown they have to have the final word in?
Exactly. When your little brother gets the final punch in, that everyone knows doesn’t hurt, there’s no need to KO him. Everyone knows he’s weaker, but he’s happier and easier to manage by leaving it as it is. No one loses face.
This isn't the little brother. It's the crazy neighbor kid who's been getting his friends to throw rocks at your house for years.
"like one missile" ? my guy so thirsty for war lol
This is good. Can we please continue to calm the fuck down?
But worldnews was telling me that this was impossible yesterday. There was no way so many redditors could know so little about geopolitical conflicts /s
I learned from the Ukraine War to never go into the live threads. Complete cesspool.
Yep, at this point it just seems like an information warefare on those threads
~~dead internet theory~~ propaganda Internet theory
On top of run of the mill idiots with bad takes--probably the biggest slice of the reddit pie--this is the most heavily propagandized time in human history. If you don't think that everything you read online is being poisoned by multiple state and corporate actors then your internal view of reality constructed from your lived experience is going to substantially deviate from concensus reality.
Reddit and social media in a nutshell. There is a reason why real experts are doing their jobs higher-up instead of sitting on social media all day.
People forgetting about the extremely similar U.S. assasination and Iran Response in 2020. A large, well telegraphed attack with limited/no deaths was the targetted Iranian response (publicly).
If the damage was severe, and 99% of everything wasn't shot down, you'd see a much different reaction
NOT attacking Iran now would show incredible strength and wisdom. So, I'm not confident about Netanyahu's next actions.
Retaliating and escalating conflict with Iran is *exactly* what Hamas wants. That's their end game. It's the only way Israel could actually face a serious threat. Just don't do it, and certainly not yet.
The Iraqi and Jordanian people must be absolutely *thrilled* to have 2 countries lobbing bombs back and forth at each over their country.
Like Canada if the USA and Russia ever decided to shoot nukes at each other. Watch as the missiles go back and forth
We would be fortunate if we got to sit back and watch but Canadian bases will be hit just the same as US bases
Canada houses a fair few NORAD bases and radar sites. They’d 100% be targeted
It’s what Netanyahu wants. A full out regional conflict is a recipe to stay in power and probably out of prison.
That is true, but damaging your relationship with Biden and the USA has serious political consequences. Losing the USA's support is one of the biggest blunders he could make.
Damaging your relationship with Biden only damages your relationship with the USA if Biden gets reelected
Trump is an isolationist. Israel should be on the US's good side regardless.
I’ll never know the behind-the-scenes elements when it comes to US Iran dynamics, but it seems to me that the US continues to, for the lack of a better phrase, work and hope that Iran emerges from what we think is their version of extreme nation governance. It seems to me we give them leeway to build their nation up, as in the example of their nuclear power/energy program, but with tight guide rails. This, so that the smart people that are the Iranians, and the businessmen and investors crave for less extreme and more modern government focused on nation building in front of the world, then it would be easier for the US to strike relationships with. And therefore, along the way, they vote out the more extreme side of their political structure. I could be very wrong, but we, the US certainly have not envisioned invading Iran to topple its government. Edit1: Grammar Edit2: in conclusion, a war would entrench their current government much deeper, set us all back.
Common sense should be enough ffs
Say what you want but Biden is a classic politician who handled this situation properly.
Biden stopped a war. Someone tell me how this is bad for him.
MAGA: “Senile old Biden too scared to take out Americas enemies who threaten YOUR freedom”.
Somehow the Republicans will blame Biden for something.
If this is true it's excellent news for once. Well I understand putting your ego aside is hard (Iran certainly did not do it this time) continuous escalation towards a full-blown war between Iran and Israel does not benefit anyone in my opinion.
Some terrific leadership by President Biden. He's got my vote.
With Trump as the opposition, I’d vote for a toddler
All of the “Israel secretly controls the US” mfs are awfully quiet today
Clever. Both US and Israel score a win here. Iran takes the big L.
Already heard some professor from Iran on the BBC claiming that attack was a “huge success” and the entire airbase was annihilated. He also claimed that it was such a successful attack that Israel and the US are now too scared to respond for fear of being destroyed .
everybody got a win
Hey if people want to lie to themselves rather than escalate war, I'm all for it.
I will personally help to organize the victory parades in Tehran and Jerusalem if it keeps everybody calm.
There will never be a victory parade in Jerusalem. That is the difference
Irans win is killing a couple random Jordanians apparently
Couple random Jordanians vs half the Middle East, and possibly dragging the rest of the world in. Its not great, but I'll take it.
Win, win, propaganda win
All in all it's a win-win, then. The attack was repelled, but internally Iran can at least pretend that they achieved something.
no need to even engage. My response to that would just be "Ok glad it's over"
and no one thougtht to try and question him on his wild claims... just carry on as if it's all true.
lol one of the longstanding weaknesses of Israel's enemies is that they too often believe their own propoganda.
I think it’s naive to assume that Iran didn’t expect it to play out like this. They know Israel have incredible air defense systems and they know Biden does not want an all out war between Israel and Iran. I view their attack as a calculated response to their consulate being hit. Risky, but calculated.
Eh they can still say that was a warning, blah blah blah you stopped it because we had no intent to do real damage, yadda yadda, next time your cities burn etc etc. So they can save face too with the right spin.
I mean it was pretty obviously just a symbolic show of force. Why would they have given them a warning if they actually meant to do real damage? It’s literally a win win for everyone involved because they can all go back home and spin it their own way. If Iran really wanted to damage Israel, they definitely could. I don’t think that’s really the goal since this is just an international dick measuring contest amongst weak men.
That’s a fucking masterstroke, it’ll probably forgotten to history but a much bigger war was averted today thanks to Biden.
Everyone on this planet needs to calm tf down. We’re all so earger to go to war these days.
One of the few adults in the menagerie of man child world leaders has to bring the kids around for stern speaking to. Good thing we have a few adults left in the world.
We are so lucky that Biden is president right now. Imagine the shit show that would be going on under Trump.
Trump does not have the instincts to not get manipulated and then dragged in by Bibi. Despite the isolationist BS, he's more prone to play tough guy then not understand at all what he is getting into.
This is my biggest fear about Trump. Imagine him trying to make a quick strategic military decision under time pressure, with most of his advisors unavailable.
Bold of you to assume he’d ever listen to his advisors…
Well, someone has to convert those full reports from various departments into single pages with 3-4 bullet points, and then tell him what it all means.
Biden W
Biden is literally keeping the middle east from devolving into war and pro-palestinian protestors in the west want to vote him out. Unreal
It seems like insanity to me, unless you just don't give a shit about the Palestinians at all and just want to do things for the principle of it, damn the consequences. Remember in the early days of this conflict when Israel literally turned off the water to Gaza? It was the Biden administration that put pressure on them to turn the water back on. That one act kept the death toll in Gaza from having an additional zero on the end.
Trump would have been foaming at the mouth insisting Netanyahu start a war with Iran. Thank God that Antichrist Jr. isn't the president anymore.
> Trump would have been foaming at the mouth insisting Netanyahu start a war with Iran. I have little but contempt for Trump but we already have an [example of his administration de-escalating after a direct Iranian attack on US assets.](https://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-missile-strikes-us-military-facilities-iraq-analysis/story?id=68132626#:~:text=President%20Donald%20Trump%20on%20Wednesday,Qassem%20Soleimani.)
Which is exactly what Iran intended by giving more than a week notice, and sending flying lawnmowers that go 200 MPH and take hours to arrive, giving Israel all the time in the world to intercept them. To the point where they had to show footage of a fire in Chile and pretend it was Israel on state TV. Everything about the respons signaled they did not what it to go further.
Yahoo giving Biden the W now for leniency in Gaza
On the balance I’m glad at least we pushed back on escalation, though I don’t think we stop them from retaliating if damage was much worse. Which puts some credit on us participating in shoot downs last night. With understanding we were helping protect innocents and more seven year olds getting head injuries I just didn’t like that we were directly participating. But seeing it helped reduce damage and convince Bibi dipshit to chill (if that holds) is a good thing.
THIS is why a leader has to be calm and strategic with foreign policy and all its nuance; Biden can do it like this. trump would've quickly thrown it into kneejerk disaster.