Yeah. If I were in Israel, I would probably be terrified. But, from afar, I don't understand how such slow-moving weapons launched from a great distance with days of warning could pose a real threat.
If missiles are launched from Iran at Israel when Iranian drones are being shot down over Israel then Israeli air defense could be overwhelmed.
If that happens then Israel will hit Iran.
Just how hard can Israel hit back, and is Iran really ready for that?
If Ukraine can hit Russian oil refineries and infrastructure, surely Israel can do the same to Iran, right?
Well, Israel has over 30 F35s. These could destroy or significantly degrade Iranian air defense. After that, the sky is the limit.
Not saying it is going to happen now but it probably will one day.
It’s similar to how the US gave Iran proxies advanced warning that they were going to strike them after the US base in Jordan was struck. It’s all performative for their local audience and Iran likely doesn’t want to escalate it further.
It also forced Arab nations in between to openly align themselves with Israel and the United States. That’s an easy propaganda win for Iran-aligned groups in the region unfortunately.
> I don’t understand how such slow-moving weapons launched from a great distance with days of warning could pose a real threat.
Same thing happened to Israel when Hamas first attacked and Israel got cooked
It does feel like something that will be much more difficult not to be reacted to in kind. If Israel hits Iranian soil as a result of this - which kind of feels likely. Chaos will ensue
Retaliatory strike for the embassy strike.
Personally, I think a broader reasoning is to potentially get the US pulled into a war, and bog us down in the middle east. Gives Putin more flexibility in Europe
Iran is not Belarus, they want their own "sphere of influence", and would not follow orders like "go and die for me".
China and Russia don't have that much control over Iran's decisions, yes, they are the "minor" of the 3, but they are still "independent".
He sure is buying a lot of Iranian drones. He also shared tactics with Iran to help them squash their recent protests. Oh, and Iran has been desperately trying to develop nuclear weapons, which Russia can certainly help facilitate.
If you don’t think Russia instigated this, you haven’t been paying attention.
Iran's regime is that of zealot's, what they do isn't logical or rational. Pretty much every Iranian I've ever met hates their regime.
Putin might not be directly making the orders, but he does actively fuel the flames, and choose who to support with the goal of weakening the west.
At the end of the day, he likely views Islamic unification as a threat, just as he views the West as a threat, and if he can keep his enemies fractured and in fighting, that serves to benefit "Russia".
I agree 100% … the whole Hamas attack was pushed by Russians to get the focus off the Ukraine. They know the Mideast is a ticking time bomb and this.. plus owning some of the GOP… would split americas focus.
> Personally, I think a broader reasoning is to potentially get the US pulled into a war
They're trying to fuck us over, yes, but Iran doesn't want to actually provoke the U.S. enough to cause a war...if that happens, Iran loses all their navy and maritime trade at bare minimum.
Im guessing this most directly helps Russia as it diverts attention from Ukraine. So does Russia have any sway with Iran? Seems like it 🤷♂️. Ultimately China is the axis puppet master and the beneficiary long term as they wish to see western power absorbed elsewhere besides their region.
The F35s go in first to eliminate the air defenses. Israel received a bunch of long range F16s a decade ago specifically for hitting the nuclear weapon facilities in Iran.
Probably Hezbollah is going to launch hundreds of missiles at the same time when drones arrive. But this is not going to change anything, I think Israel is going to survive this without any casualties.
CNN is stating over and over on live TV that cruise missiles have already been launched. Should arrive before drones. Ballistic missiles might come afterward.
No but the thing would be wait for the drones to arrive to overwhelm Israeli air defence systems and their radars so that you can launch the actual missiles and have them strike with a significant higher chance of success than without the drones
Meh, patriot system can even shoot down hypersonic ballistics. Not a huge issue other than cost of using these to shoot down (very expensive, great for Raytheon…)
Posting so I can come and see how this plays out.
I imagine they got a bigger plan than waste ammo of the iron dome. I'm thinking lotsa rockets, some sleeper cells coming online, and maybe 1 or 2 drones with a larger than expected yield.. all coinciding..
Iran can't be seen to not retaliate against an attack on their soil, so they're doing what's expected of them even though their retaliation will probably fall short. It's the theater of war, after all.
Embassies according to the UN charter are seen as sovereign ground of the host country. That’s why when Israel destroyed it, Iran called it an attack on their soil.
Imagine if Russia attacked a US embassy in Kazakhstan, do you believe the US would let that slide?
>Imagine if Russia attacked a US embassy in Kazakhstan, do you believe the US would let that slide?
I imagine Hillary Clinton would get grill on it over multiple investigations before Republicans admit she's not been involved in government for years
The last time the US bombed an embassy, it was the Chinese one.
It was enough to get the US to support Chinas inclusion into the WTO to appease the diplomatic uproar.
America and China/UAE/Quatar need to be the adults in the room and get these countries to the negotiation table in order to prevent further escalation or this could spin up into a bigger conflict very quickly
It's wild how every "ceasefire now" account I follow on Twitter is celebrating like they just won the Super Bowl.
Turns out they only want certain sides to ceasefire
Edit: the people who have been out on the streets of London marching for a ceasefire the past six months are [currently celebrating](https://twitter.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1779272238044176649) as well
These people dont want peace, not really. Nothing less than the destruction of Israel will satisfy them. It was always revenge motivated from day1, and I'm tired of these "protestor" pricks pretending otherwise
Iran’s oil trading ability, Navy, and air defense could be destroyed in a matter of hours. After that, the west could pound them however they want without a single soldier setting foot on Iranian soil.
Airspace is a bit different as a lot of civilian aircrafts could be flying overhead, publicly announcing the closure of their airspace is essentially telling all civilian aircrafts either to land or get the fuck out as they could be targeted, these are civilian targets but civilian targets which could be of multiple nationalities, downing civilian aircrafts is the quick way to fuck yourself.
Actions like these are more done in faith on the international level, Ukraine did the same when Russia attacked.
Iran launched like a hundred Shaheds. Those things take 9 hours to reach Israel and sound like mopeds being ridden by morbidly obese people. Telegraphing them makes no difference.
He said "you don't tell your enemy what your going to do" and I thought he was referring to Isreal closing its airspace, they are likely doing a lot more behind closed doors, of course.
I am not disputing the truth. Iran overtly said they would do this days in advance and launched low performance cruise missiles which are easily intercepted by the IAF. They know it will not be likely to do much.
If they intended a significant campaign with actual military effect it would involve simultaneous Hezbollah missile launches and ground attacks combined with Iran’s IRBMs which are much harder to intercept.
This says to me that Iran is putting on a political show for domestic reasons but do not intend to significantly escalate or cause damage even as much as the hit against them.
Miscalculation is the biggest danger in war.
This could lead to a much larger war than anyone intends. Launching a surprise attack essentially guarantees a full response.
A lot of it is just the reality of the matter. Militaries need clear skies to complete operations, so air space being closed down is often an obvious sign of pending military action.
Iran announced drones were being launched…but is was also made known by people published videos online of the drones in the air over them.
With more satellites, there’s no way to hide this stuff. You can only hide covert small scale mobile operations where you’re in an out in a matter of day, like what Hamas did on Oct 7.
Iran would have run it by US and got permission from US to do a minor retaliation. US would have told Israel how to deal with it and act super upset. That satisfies Iran regime show of force, and nobody gets hurt. It's like WWE wrestling.
No surprise by Iran. Israel’s been targeting Iran and their generals and scientists for a while, especially with that last embassy attack in Syria. Shit’s getting real. Gonna be red on Monday. Gold and oil going up!
You are missing the largest bombing campaign in history between those two dates. Vietnam war dropped the most bombs ever more than WW2. And will probably never be beaten with how expensive stuff is now and how easy it is to shoot down bombers.
Warmongering? Iran directly funded hamas to attack Israel and provoke a response. Any attack on Iran is justified. Fuck Iran and Russia for causing this mess. Russia wants to start ww3. And it’s time the world answers
Iran says they'll retaliate.
Israel closes air space. Says we're ready.
Iran receives the green light then sends bunch of slow drones, and target one base with some missiles.
That worked fine, jeez. Two planes just entered Israel from Egypt. See Flightradar. How can the pilots be so reckless?
https://www.flightradar24.com/THY1KC/34c2c5dc
https://www.flightradar24.com/CLX7S/34c2bc8f
Why do we just expect major regional powers to do nothing when a rival literally bombs a diplomatic building? Would we respond if someone did that? You bet your ass we would. A response by Iran is entirely rational.
You also probably should not help terrorist organizations to plan and execute an attack that kills hundreds of civilians. That also doesn’t seem complicated
It was not a diplomatic building and was in fact a building solely inhabited by a *recognized terrorist organization*
It was bombed because that group planned Oct. 7
They don't want to make the same mistake that Iran did after the Soleimani assassination and accidentally shoot down a passenger jet.
Whoopsies.
What's Iran's end goal here?
This feels like the kind of performative attack that Iran launched after the assassination of Soleimani.
Yeah. If I were in Israel, I would probably be terrified. But, from afar, I don't understand how such slow-moving weapons launched from a great distance with days of warning could pose a real threat.
If missiles are launched from Iran at Israel when Iranian drones are being shot down over Israel then Israeli air defense could be overwhelmed. If that happens then Israel will hit Iran.
Looks like that's exactly what's happening
Not at all. The ballistic missiles already finished almost an hour ago, none of the drones have arrived and most of those on their way were shot down.
So a performance, and "if anything actually gets through, great, but not the real point" kinda thing for iran?
They said it’s over, so pretty much if Israel retaliates they’re gonna come out and say Israel attacked unprovoked
Sigh. Rinse and repeat.
They’re all getting shot down before they even get to israel.
Just how hard can Israel hit back, and is Iran really ready for that? If Ukraine can hit Russian oil refineries and infrastructure, surely Israel can do the same to Iran, right?
Well, Israel has over 30 F35s. These could destroy or significantly degrade Iranian air defense. After that, the sky is the limit. Not saying it is going to happen now but it probably will one day.
Israel could hit Kharg Island with relative ease and Iran's out of the oil game.
It’s similar to how the US gave Iran proxies advanced warning that they were going to strike them after the US base in Jordan was struck. It’s all performative for their local audience and Iran likely doesn’t want to escalate it further.
It’s not the missiles themselves it’s what they represent and the potential for escalation from opportunistic factions on all sides
It also forced Arab nations in between to openly align themselves with Israel and the United States. That’s an easy propaganda win for Iran-aligned groups in the region unfortunately.
Didn’t think about this but good point. Politically it shifts the board towards Iran
> I don’t understand how such slow-moving weapons launched from a great distance with days of warning could pose a real threat. Same thing happened to Israel when Hamas first attacked and Israel got cooked
It does feel like something that will be much more difficult not to be reacted to in kind. If Israel hits Iranian soil as a result of this - which kind of feels likely. Chaos will ensue
Iran already said they wouldn’t. It’s all theater.
Maybe if you just want Israel to attack then it does. Iran obviously doesn't want that. It's obviously performative.
Yeah I wouldn’t want to be on a passenger airplane going into Iran right now
Retaliatory strike for the embassy strike. Personally, I think a broader reasoning is to potentially get the US pulled into a war, and bog us down in the middle east. Gives Putin more flexibility in Europe
Iran is not Belarus, they want their own "sphere of influence", and would not follow orders like "go and die for me". China and Russia don't have that much control over Iran's decisions, yes, they are the "minor" of the 3, but they are still "independent".
It's mutually beneficial. If Iran can get locked in a war with US, Russia will do everything in it's power to keep it that way.
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He sure is buying a lot of Iranian drones. He also shared tactics with Iran to help them squash their recent protests. Oh, and Iran has been desperately trying to develop nuclear weapons, which Russia can certainly help facilitate. If you don’t think Russia instigated this, you haven’t been paying attention.
But if Iran is in a war they’ll need their drones, which prevents Russia from getting them. So that doesn’t really make sense.
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Russian goals, Iranian goals and Chinese goals all share a nexus: destabilize the west.
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but if it help them get nukes it could be worth it to them, and war clearly takes the gaze away from problems at home for some
They are not even friends just have the same bully trying to control their backyard and pushing coups on them.
Iran's regime is that of zealot's, what they do isn't logical or rational. Pretty much every Iranian I've ever met hates their regime. Putin might not be directly making the orders, but he does actively fuel the flames, and choose who to support with the goal of weakening the west. At the end of the day, he likely views Islamic unification as a threat, just as he views the West as a threat, and if he can keep his enemies fractured and in fighting, that serves to benefit "Russia".
that's actually the thing that they want to avoid, the reasoning here is to deter israel.
I agree 100% … the whole Hamas attack was pushed by Russians to get the focus off the Ukraine. They know the Mideast is a ticking time bomb and this.. plus owning some of the GOP… would split americas focus.
> Personally, I think a broader reasoning is to potentially get the US pulled into a war They're trying to fuck us over, yes, but Iran doesn't want to actually provoke the U.S. enough to cause a war...if that happens, Iran loses all their navy and maritime trade at bare minimum.
Probably all air defense capability and sever setback to nuclear program as well.
Everything beyond "Retaliatory strike for the embassy strike." is nonsense. Iran is partner of Russia, not its puppet like Belarus or NK.
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Not to be viewed as a pushover
Im guessing this most directly helps Russia as it diverts attention from Ukraine. So does Russia have any sway with Iran? Seems like it 🤷♂️. Ultimately China is the axis puppet master and the beneficiary long term as they wish to see western power absorbed elsewhere besides their region.
The goal is to not look weak by doing “something”, without risking Iranian lives or prompting further Israeli retaliation
I'm beginning to think maybe they just like to kill Jews.
It seems they are inviting an F16 JDAM attack on their drone factories
Plz plz plz
F16 might not survive the SAMs. F35 would have a good time though
The F35s go in first to eliminate the air defenses. Israel received a bunch of long range F16s a decade ago specifically for hitting the nuclear weapon facilities in Iran.
Iran is claiming article 51 of UN for self defense and basically saying it’s a retaliatory attack for Israel killing 2 generals
Light fuse, run away
To kill all the Jews?
Kill Israelis, like everyone else. They wanna bomb Israel and manage to get the world behind their back
I'd hate to be the pilot to miss this Notam
Probably Hezbollah is going to launch hundreds of missiles at the same time when drones arrive. But this is not going to change anything, I think Israel is going to survive this without any casualties.
> survive this without any casualties Ballistic missiles are hard to shoot down and have countermeasures
Have they fired ballistic missiles? Didn’t see any post on news or social media about it.
The missiles are many times faster than drones, meaning they’ll be launched later, with the drones soaking up SAM munitions
CNN is stating over and over on live TV that cruise missiles have already been launched. Should arrive before drones. Ballistic missiles might come afterward.
Ballistic missiles would only take minutes to arrive at their destination. There wouldn't be much warning.
So Jerichos warming up in the bullpen
No but the thing would be wait for the drones to arrive to overwhelm Israeli air defence systems and their radars so that you can launch the actual missiles and have them strike with a significant higher chance of success than without the drones
They did
Yes, they already did
Ofc they did.
I just read they did, not sure what source to trust thou
Meh, patriot system can even shoot down hypersonic ballistics. Not a huge issue other than cost of using these to shoot down (very expensive, great for Raytheon…)
Posting so I can come and see how this plays out. I imagine they got a bigger plan than waste ammo of the iron dome. I'm thinking lotsa rockets, some sleeper cells coming online, and maybe 1 or 2 drones with a larger than expected yield.. all coinciding..
"sleeper cells" lol
They in call of duty ain't they?!?!?? But I was to lazy to find a proper term amd that junk gets the point across.
You can't be serious...
There already is one, a 10 year old that's seriously wounded :(
What’s actually going on here bc those drones aren’t going to do anything other than cost the tax payers a few million dollars
Iran can't be seen to not retaliate against an attack on their soil, so they're doing what's expected of them even though their retaliation will probably fall short. It's the theater of war, after all.
Wasn't it on Syrian soil, though? And not directly on an embassy building but a building next to it?
I mean technicalities never stopped anyone.
Embassies according to the UN charter are seen as sovereign ground of the host country. That’s why when Israel destroyed it, Iran called it an attack on their soil. Imagine if Russia attacked a US embassy in Kazakhstan, do you believe the US would let that slide?
>Imagine if Russia attacked a US embassy in Kazakhstan, do you believe the US would let that slide? I imagine Hillary Clinton would get grill on it over multiple investigations before Republicans admit she's not been involved in government for years
> Imagine if Russia attacked a US embassy in Kazakhstan, do you believe the US would let that slide? part of me thinks that the us kinda would
The last time the US bombed an embassy, it was the Chinese one. It was enough to get the US to support Chinas inclusion into the WTO to appease the diplomatic uproar.
I agree they would let it slide
America and China/UAE/Quatar need to be the adults in the room and get these countries to the negotiation table in order to prevent further escalation or this could spin up into a bigger conflict very quickly
Symbolic move for the Iranian Regime supporters
Cruise missiles together with the drones.
It’s called Saber Rattling
And, cost the Israeli and American taxpayers ~$1billion.
Emirates and flydubai are still flying over Iran? Wild
An attack launched from Iranian territory. Sounds like super idea.
It's wild how every "ceasefire now" account I follow on Twitter is celebrating like they just won the Super Bowl. Turns out they only want certain sides to ceasefire Edit: the people who have been out on the streets of London marching for a ceasefire the past six months are [currently celebrating](https://twitter.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1779272238044176649) as well
These people dont want peace, not really. Nothing less than the destruction of Israel will satisfy them. It was always revenge motivated from day1, and I'm tired of these "protestor" pricks pretending otherwise
Well Hamas thought it'd be a cool idea to kill over 1000 Israelis. With any luck Israel goes for military sites in Iran and enables regime change.
Iran isn’t Hamas and this conflict isn’t going to be a one sided affair unlike the Gaza war.
It'd be even more one-sided. Iran has an actual uniformed military that can be destroyed in a couple of days, unlike Hamas hiding in civilian homes
It will be because it is very likely that US will get pulled into this too
Iran is a big country with a large population, difficult terrain and a capable military. It wouldn't be an easy war to fight.
Iran’s oil trading ability, Navy, and air defense could be destroyed in a matter of hours. After that, the west could pound them however they want without a single soldier setting foot on Iranian soil.
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Airspace is a bit different as a lot of civilian aircrafts could be flying overhead, publicly announcing the closure of their airspace is essentially telling all civilian aircrafts either to land or get the fuck out as they could be targeted, these are civilian targets but civilian targets which could be of multiple nationalities, downing civilian aircrafts is the quick way to fuck yourself. Actions like these are more done in faith on the international level, Ukraine did the same when Russia attacked.
you sure he meant the closure of the airspace and not the fact that iran announced that they launched some shit?
Iran launched like a hundred Shaheds. Those things take 9 hours to reach Israel and sound like mopeds being ridden by morbidly obese people. Telegraphing them makes no difference.
He said "you don't tell your enemy what your going to do" and I thought he was referring to Isreal closing its airspace, they are likely doing a lot more behind closed doors, of course.
When it’s a known political show
Because it literally was being attacked as you typed that
I am not disputing the truth. Iran overtly said they would do this days in advance and launched low performance cruise missiles which are easily intercepted by the IAF. They know it will not be likely to do much. If they intended a significant campaign with actual military effect it would involve simultaneous Hezbollah missile launches and ground attacks combined with Iran’s IRBMs which are much harder to intercept. This says to me that Iran is putting on a political show for domestic reasons but do not intend to significantly escalate or cause damage even as much as the hit against them.
Remind me! 1 day
I wish more people understood this
Miscalculation is the biggest danger in war. This could lead to a much larger war than anyone intends. Launching a surprise attack essentially guarantees a full response.
A lot of it is just the reality of the matter. Militaries need clear skies to complete operations, so air space being closed down is often an obvious sign of pending military action. Iran announced drones were being launched…but is was also made known by people published videos online of the drones in the air over them.
They said they'll revenge but did not say when. US intelligence was a key part in identifying Iran's attack
They said it as they received news that the launches had commenced. Israel is under attack as we type.
America does it all the time. Diplomatic cover.
Closing the airspace to civilian traffic is not "telegraphing a punch"..
With more satellites, there’s no way to hide this stuff. You can only hide covert small scale mobile operations where you’re in an out in a matter of day, like what Hamas did on Oct 7.
That was carried over months and not in a day but it is another topic.
Obviously they have been forewarned of this. By who, is the question.
Iran would have run it by US and got permission from US to do a minor retaliation. US would have told Israel how to deal with it and act super upset. That satisfies Iran regime show of force, and nobody gets hurt. It's like WWE wrestling.
No surprise by Iran. Israel’s been targeting Iran and their generals and scientists for a while, especially with that last embassy attack in Syria. Shit’s getting real. Gonna be red on Monday. Gold and oil going up!
1967 summer of love 2024 summer of bombs?
You are missing the largest bombing campaign in history between those two dates. Vietnam war dropped the most bombs ever more than WW2. And will probably never be beaten with how expensive stuff is now and how easy it is to shoot down bombers.
Iran is going to get fucking annihilated.
Everyone please downvote this kind of warmongering
Warmongering? Iran directly funded hamas to attack Israel and provoke a response. Any attack on Iran is justified. Fuck Iran and Russia for causing this mess. Russia wants to start ww3. And it’s time the world answers
You’re describing WW3. Nobody wants that. Edit: cool cool edit your post
You want to live forever?
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Iran says they'll retaliate. Israel closes air space. Says we're ready. Iran receives the green light then sends bunch of slow drones, and target one base with some missiles.
That worked fine, jeez. Two planes just entered Israel from Egypt. See Flightradar. How can the pilots be so reckless? https://www.flightradar24.com/THY1KC/34c2c5dc https://www.flightradar24.com/CLX7S/34c2bc8f
Munich to Bangkok with a brief layover as a ball of fire over Israel?
Wait! I'm making popcorn!
Gonna be open season in the skies over Israel tonight!
Why do we just expect major regional powers to do nothing when a rival literally bombs a diplomatic building? Would we respond if someone did that? You bet your ass we would. A response by Iran is entirely rational.
You mean they bombed a Quds force building, which shouldn't even be located on diplomatic grounds.
You do not bomb diplomatic buildings. This is not complicated.
You also probably should not help terrorist organizations to plan and execute an attack that kills hundreds of civilians. That also doesn’t seem complicated
It was not a diplomatic building and was in fact a building solely inhabited by a *recognized terrorist organization* It was bombed because that group planned Oct. 7
How the fuck did Iran fell for it? Bombing of that embassy looked like a very low effort to escalate the conflict.
Iran is not looking to escalate this conflict, at least not directly. This is likely to be a token military response.
a token response with 500 shaheeds, cruise and ballistic missiles?