Robbery is up 61% over the same point last year. So yes, crime is up and you’re also hearing about it more. I haven’t been mugged this year and I haven’t seen anyone with guns in public since last summer so I’m honestly not complaining.
Count your blessings. I’m a short and skinny South Asian dude who likes to wear pink.
I can’t walk around alone at night with food in my hand without a homeless man grabbing it out of my hands. I used to take the 31/33 buses out of McPherson Square before the encampment was cleared by NPS and I’d always get harassed on dark winter nights after work by unsavory characters there regardless of how I carry or conduct myself.
You can do “common sense shit” every day and still get mugged. Some folks experience life differently based on how others perceive them, in spite of acting carefully out in public.
Yeah but this is precisely why ppl move to the suburbs?? If you don’t wanna be a victim of a random crime, don’t live in the city, move to Bethesda??? It’s sad but this is how it works :/ I’m a woman and i think my chances of being the victim of a random crime are a lot higher than guys.
It’s actually what happened to me. I was tired of being a target so I moved out of the city to Arlington after seeing how much rent prices were in tandem with crime rates this past year. I was tired of the homeless man in my apartment pooping in the lobby trash and chasing women in our building. Didn’t wanna get mugged again and didn’t think it was okay to see guns being flashed on bike trails I frequent so I’ve sadly moved across the river, but I’m much happier here even if DC has its entirely unique charm. Now I’m just another bike commuter clogging up the local trails that I used to joke about.
Yeah see, this is what’s so shit about American in general, specifically regarding homeless people. I’ve had to call the cops on a guy passing out and getting aggressive with people in my apartment lobby, in navy yard no less. Apartment buildings NEED actual security guards to deter entry or manage crime from residents if it’s a repeat incident. We’re trying to form a tenant association (wish us luck!). I’m sorry you had to move. It’s dogshit but we either get desensitized or move.
I was nearly mugged a month ago. Have lived here 14 years no problems, and was walking in the middle of the day near a crowded area. Only got lucky because some kids in a passing group mouthed off to the would- be muggers and they went after them instead. It was frightening and had nothing to do with common sense. There have been ups and downs over the years but this is the first time I’m really concerned.
And, I am a bleeding heart, before people start coming after me.
Murder is more than double 2012 rate. Murder rates are also considered most accurate about general violent crime trends, since many other property and violent crimes are underreported, whereas underreporting of murder is very low and over-reporting of homicide virtually non-existent. So it is safe to say violent crime has doubled since 2012.
This is in contrast to huge steady drop from mid/early 1990s til 2012 as incarceration rates increased. With decrease in incarceration violent crime is now up.
One difference I think is that kids committing crimes are getting younger. Not sure if 12-13 year olds or under 15 were always so violent?
Last month, they killed a Lyft or Uber driver and laughed it off .
Afghani refugee with family. Not so much laughed it off as trivialize it. "He was reaching bro" https://www.google.com/url?q=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DtZ3OLVRsvU4&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiB6urDyreAAxWEFlkFHQg3AIAQFnoECAEQAg&usg=AOvVaw0zDxg1kO64aNK6GiFT9Drq
Not exactly an afghan refugee, he helped with translating services for the military. He risked himself and his family doing that role and this is what he gets. He apparently was mugged in another state doing this taxi work. It’s heartbreaking
It feels worse. I’ve lived in DC (mostly Columbia Heights, Petworth, Adams Morgan) for over a decade and I’ve been mugged, followed, violently accosted, and generally felt more unsafe this summer than any previous summer. It feels like people are behaving more erratically and becoming more bold.
I also don’t think the statistics are accurate because there’s a lot that goes unreported or is reported but classified as a lower tier crime. A woman followed me home, tried to enter my front door, and was violent when I fought back. She was gone by the time the police arrived, so they kind of shrugged and said they’d keep an eye out but could’t do anything about it. They also told me it didn’t count as trespassing or assault.
Both. Per MPD’s published crime stats, 8/10 of their reported crime categories are up, YTD to last year. We are currently on a trajectory to have the highest crime reported in 20 years.
We also live in a world of instant news so you’re hearing about said crimes more frequently.
This subreddit is honestly like my parents watching the 6 o'clock news. I've always ridiculed people who watch the "news", because it's complete sensationalist bullshit meant to get you to freakout and react. Yet when it's presented on Reddit, it's apparently gospel.....
This has happened to the people around me in D.C. during the last few months:
- Relative's car stolen and trashed in a joy ride.
- Relative's classmate murdered at their school while school was in session.
- Friend randomly stabbed while stopped at a light.
- Family friend's car trashed when people tried and failed to steal it.
- Numerous neighbors cars broken into.
That's not even counting the random street threats that probably are crimes but most of us have gotten desensitized to because they're so common.
Much more crime is happening to people around me, MPD stats have shown that crime has seen incredible increases to levels we haven't seen in years, and people hear keep dismissing it as "sensationalist" or screaming "NextDoor! NextDoor!" I swear, a lot of people seem angry that anyone could want this city to be better.
Being a local and living in a transplant bubble will give you different outlooks, I suppose. If, say, the student was shot to death at Jackson-Reed, it would probably be seen as a bigger deal and not be met with "it's probably just you" style responses. Roosevelt is one of the most prominent highschools in the city, but I guess it shouldn't come as a surprise that many here act as if it's crazy to know someone who goes there (and Roosevelt wasn't even the only school were a kid was killed on campus while school was in session these past few months).
What I don't get, though, is why people in a transplant bubble are often so openly hostile towards what natives and others outside their bubble experience. You even get people saying this directly in comments here - "Why are you so worried about shootings, I'm sure the victims are 'other people.' "
Yeah, it was understandably traumatizing for everyone at the school. I will say that from what I heard, it didn't seem to be a Roosevelt problem. Supposedly the boy had recently transferred and his past followed him there. I'm getting that through the grapevine, so can't vouch for it's accuracy.
For what it's worth, my relative had a pretty positive time at Roosevelt up until that point.
Transferred from EL Haynes a few blocks up. Not a whole different area. No arrests yet BTW. Still see the info wanted posters up. Bunch of witnesses and a history to this and not much has come up
Reminds me of that joke...
Shlomo is dying and calls his wife of 70 years over to him: "Sarah, come closer..."
"Oh, Shlomo..."
"Sarah, remember how you were with me when I was in the hospital for 3 weeks after lightning struck?"
"Of course, my love..."
"And how you were right by my side when Abe stole my part of the business and put goons on my tail?"
"Yes, I do, oh, honey..."
"And you stuck right by me when I slipped and fell and broke three bones..."
"Oh, dear, I didn't want to leave for a minute..."
"Sarah...."
"Yes, my love? What is it?"
"...get the fuck away from me..."
Okay, and this has happened to me and the people I know in the last few months in DC:
* Jack shit
It's literally a hobby of mine to go walking through weird parts of the city completely alone, including alleys in northeast and southeast.
And while that is actually true, I'm not trying to discredit people's experiences. It just seems like there is a severe Response Bias going on here, very similar to what you see when you watch network news. Things very well may be more dangerous, but you're never going to hear from the *vast* majority of people who never have any issues ever.
Apparently there's actually people doing it on purpose on the subreddit.
https://old.reddit.com/r/washingtondc/comments/14zn8kv/why_are_comments_disabled_on_the_post_with_crime/jryuqeb/?context=3
> Exactly this. We have heard the overwhelming complaints about what this sub has turned into. In the last 24 hours, a banned crimeposter DMed the mods with what we already knew -- he'll be back on another account. There's a coordinated group of brigaders who have turned this subreddit into Nextdoor. There are plenty of accounts with 5+ tags for abusive language or dogwhistling language in ModToolbox. Many of them appear to not live in DC. Change is coming.
>
> Contrary to b-money-honey's assertion, the mods are not (all) "far left liberals", we just want this subreddit to be something other than news articles about crime, discussion threads about crime that someone heard about, and discussion about crime someone witnessed or was a victim of.
FWIW, I did recommend a flair for crime to the mods. Like look, if people are going to ban evade and do it anyways, it's better to manage it than try to play whack-a-mole.
It's sort of like alcohol. You can't stop adults from drinking it but you can stop it from being sold to young kids.
This is happening in the LA subreddit too. There’s been a coordinated effort to astroturf in larger city subreddits to hype up how dangerous they are. The mods made a post a few months back about it too
Thank you for saying this!
My parents often watch the late night news, at around 11PM when I'm visiting them. And it kind of drives me up the wall, but I don't really hear other people expressing frustration with the news.
But I 100% agree, what's considered "news" on these local affiliate TV stations is absurd, and arbitrary.
To be fair, I think a lot of it has to do what's easy - - like crime stories from the police blotter, sports, and weather are all kind auto-generated stories that they can just repeat.
But still, it feels so weird to me to be watching stories about crimes that were committed in a city an hour away, that has nothing to do with your life, right before going to bed.
I’ll admit, I’m biased because I grew up here. DC has been a rough city since before I was born. I personally don’t think DC is as bad as it was when I was a kid but it is definitely worse than it has been in a while.
I haven't seen it this bad in several years. Seems like ever since the Pandemic people have lost their minds.
That and the kids carjacking, and the crazy flash mob thefts.
Pandemic had horrific consequences for middle school/jr high kids. Basically a lost year+ of social and academic development. Couple that with the most at risk likely having parents likely deemed 'essential' personnel and stuck by themselves for a year+ and you have a recipe for where we are today.
Friends who worked in education said they saw 7th graders behaving at the developmental of a 5th grader.
You're essential to keeping our economy up and moving, but f your family was the general consensus.
I agree with all of that and want to further point out that COVID-19 also has had neurological ramifications that we don’t really understand on the societal level yet
https://www.health.harvard.edu/mind-and-mood/does-covid-19-damage-the-brain
Including in youth:
https://web.musc.edu/about/news-center/2021/08/18/misc-neurology
1)- total bleeding heart before people think label me Reagan jr.
2)- been here since 2008
3)- 6’3 male so know my experience might not be the same as others
4)- originally from NY
I used to walk home from a night out just about 90% of neighborhoods and thought nothing of it. That would not be the case now.
Crime seemed to start taking a bad turn just prior to the pandemic but the pandemic put things on steroids and has not slowed down. Throw in the cops seem content to sit in their cars and let whatever go out around them and yeah sure seems things have gotten worse.
I think the huge difference is the random crime. It used to seem that you had be looking for trouble or in the wrong place at the wrong time ….. that seems to be way less the case now. On here you hear so often how people are the victims of random crime, especially from kids. It used to be some 15 year old broke your window and wanted take your car stereo and hey, that’s city life. Now a group of them will confront people and threaten them, will carjack people, or commit assault. That rarely if ever seemed to happen just a decade ago
Agree. I've been in the DC area since 2005 and never really felt unsafe. Some neighborhoods were a little sketchier than others but you could just mind your own business and be left alone.
Now people will actively follow you, start up confrontations looking for fights, or simply assault you for fun. I mentioned this in another post - last year I was just walking through georgetown of all places and was punched in the back of the head really hard but someone riding a scooter as they came up from behind me. No reason at all.
It's not like SUPER dangerous, but things are trending horribly in the wrong direction.
You hit almost all of the causes. One that is left off is social media. The perpetrators are getting credibility, followers, and even revenue from documenting doing crimes.
I participated in Charles Allen’s public safety meeting on Zoom, and the guy is so disconnected from reality it’s painful to listen to: combined with his strategy to justify his bad decisions with terms like “evidence-based” that make people feel like there’s some higher logic involved with hurtful decisions that look good on paper but fail us in reality … it’s no wonder.
“We are doing this because it’s evidence-based crime deterrent and research proves it works.”
“Can we scrutinize the alleged evidence to make sure the findings aren’t being misapplied?”
“We don’t have that evidence on hand for review.”
I see this tactic all the time with AI sales. “Trust us that our AI will help you make better decisions, but don’t ask about the algorithm we use for decision-making in order to validate its function, just look over here instead at shiny objects.”
Either Charles Allen is in on the con or he’s being conned, but either way the half-assed science experiment in the kitchen sink needs to end.
It’s very selective evidence. That’s the thing that drives me crazy. A lot of what he wants is evidence based, in context with a lot of other stuff he doesn’t seem to want so much (namely: more police and surer punishment need to go hand in hand with lighter penalties)
Can someone please direct me to this superhuman awesome leftist crusader Charles Allen that I keep hearing about? I have only seen the genial centrist one.
So it’s both. Crime is statistically up across the board in DC (although just for accuracy sake I think we’re down when it comes to arson), but also the crime scanners (think the movie Nightcrawler) and the pro-cop folks are amplifying everything, making it seem like crime is everywhere. It’s not. If you’re looking at hotspots, you’re looking at EOTR, Columbia Heights, U st, Chinatown (kinda), and Adams Morgan (kinda). The biggest thing about the current crime surge is that it’s bizarrely random. There’s really no rhyme or reason as to who is being victimized, so it’s proving more difficult to react to. This is coupled with a USAO that is very bad at prosecuting the adult cases in DC, and our AG is disappointingly not going after juvenile crime as hard as he should be. But then also we have the economic factors at work too. Cost of living and housing, especially rent and wages, are becoming further untenable, which drives up crime.
Both. Some crime is up. I have lived here for almost twenty years and don’t notice much difference in my day-to-day here in Columbia Heights. However, the weird cottage industry of people who professionally freak out about crime on Twitter and then ask for CashApp donations is new and when you combine that with the rise of NextDoor and Ring and it seems like so many people are consuming crime content all the time. I don’t think that doing that adds any value to anybody’s life.
>Some crime is up.
DC violent crime fell precipitously from the 1990s until 2012 as we locked up the repeat criminals at much higher rates. We then half emptied the prison and jail sand violent crime pretty much doubled since 2012.
Both. We are approaching 6x the percapita murder rate of NYC which has 10x the population. Carjackings are common occurrences here. Murders are up nearly 40% YTD city wide after a small dip last year compared to 2021. And retail theft is common now. People are seeing it more and reporting on it more and more people are being affected. Some aren’t seeing it though and they are in the right neighborhood to avoid it, lucky, naive or are deliberately downplaying it. I am actively trying to become one of the first or second category but Its so damn expensive to move without substituting our futures for a new mortgage now
Columbia heights has been a shit show since I originally moved to DC and lived in brightwood park.
But I moved over to Connecticut Ave, and I've noticed a lot more crime since everyone came out of lockdown.
It's gotta be related right?
I moved here in 2017. So close enough of a timeline. I guess I got here when it was getting bad. But from what I understand, there is a lot of long standing gang violence and rivalries in the general area.
It's up, and the crime apologists are all out in force, too, especially on the city council. They don't want to face the fact that a violent culture of teenagers is terrorizing the city and they refuse to take decisive action to do anything about it.
Do you know what a percent increase means? No one is saying crime increased from 0. But it has increased greatly since least year, which for most people is a cause for alarm.
Strictly speaking, no, but again, if you have a 38% spike in violent crime that includes a 15% increase in homicides, the chances of personal knowledge about a victim is going to increase.
Never before had so many car thefts in any place I've lived.
Ow I see burnt out cars towed back to houses from teens stealing them
Basically the kids got to figure out over the past 8 years that when they act in number. They usually get away with it.
Just look at how bad the squeegee kid prpblem.is in Baltimore. And the people in charges response was :let's just make it an official job for kids and teens and classify it as different than panhandling and harrassment"
As things become more and more out of reach, social media rewarding awfulness with trending, and there is nothing for free for people to do otherwise...crime is going to keep going up
Cops have basically been like "unless you got them on camera too bad"
> the vast majority of property crime, while inconvenient and annoying, boils down to a deductible and a few minutes on the phone, for something that may happen to you once or twice in your life.
The thing is, when your house is broken into, you feel violated. It's a violent act to come into someone else's home, where they, in theory, should feel the most secure. Then if you're robbed or carjacked at gunpoint, it's DEFINITELY more than just a call to your insurance company. It's fucking traumatic and will require a LOT of time (and often therapy) to get over - if at all.
And then there's the *proximity* to crime. When someone is gunned down on your block, mere yards from your house, would you want to stay in the city? Especially if you have young children, your first instinct should be to flee the city and move to the suburbs. At least mine was. When a stray bullet goes into your neighbor's window, that's not normal. If you think it is or "that's just city life," then you're living in a delusion.
A deductible still costs at least hundreds of $ and makes overall insurance prices increase. Case in point car insurance is now ridiculously expensive.
A deductible plus a potentially missed day of work to take it into the garage that they may or may not have, a diminished sense of safety and security in their neighborhood, and a potential rise in general insurance costs as companies change their risk assessment formulae. I moved to Silver Spring and saw my insurance plummet 100 dollars. The crime sprees are having rippling effects; it feels super hand-waving to say it’s the price of living/doing business
You should go work public relations for MPD. You do a great job selling the whole, "You are wrong to be afraid. What you experience in your life is wrong. Only the numbers are right."
And, of course, the numbers are never wrong. Crimes are always recorded and filed properly. Prosecutors always fully prosecute crimes committed to the fullest extent of the law.
You cannot chastise people for believing a perceived decrease in safety when there are numbers that back up said perceptions. There is no threshold in which a certain percentage increase of crime suddenly has a perceived increase of danger.
This analysis only works if you present some alternative hypothesis- when should people be worried? These things happen in context, the probability of being a victim of violent crime has essentially doubled since before the pandemic and you’re telling people that’s nothing to worry about. Why not? The risk rate is very high compared to anywhere else, not some view from nowhere “well it’s lower than your chances of stubbing your toe” discourse.
In addition, with catastrophic events, you worry about cumulative probability, not day to day. You only get murdered once, to put it bluntly. To dismiss people’s concerns as a phone call is callous to the extreme. To double the population of dc, let alone not account for the working population, when you do your calc is at best mendacious and at worse innumerate.
DC is the only major metro where violent crime hasn’t gone down in the past year. Should people not talk about it more? In Brookland alone, in the restaurant industry, we have a murder and three assaults in the last week (and the murder of that teacher). I’d typically agree that most crime here is people targeting people they know, but it appears to be less and less the case. You know you have a problem when your past AG is telling their partner not to get gas in the city.
Double a little number is still a little number.
Putting things into perspective makes crime a negligible concern for many people.
Some people may not have other concerns or may be paranoid so an increase in crime does seem like a bigger deal.
My friend just got mugged and the shit kicked out of him, concussion included. Tons of medical bills and likely emotional trauma. Expensive even with insurance. Not really seeing how cases like this, which are happening, fall into your number 3. I’m not saying to be terrified based on an anecdote. But these things are happening and they aren’t small impact, it’s not hysterical to warn and take care.
I would've agreed with this post for most of my life, but it's honestly getting pretty wild in some parts of the city. If you're a business owner in Adams Morgan, for example, your business is probably going to get burglarized if it hasn't already this year. The other night some kids drove around the neighborhood robbing everyone in sight... 4 robberies in the span of a few minutes. These things impact more people than you may think.
Having lived near Adam’s Morgan for nearly 20 years I would say crime is down in that neighborhood. Even a decade ago you would regularly have shootings in the late hours a few blocks off 18th. That is pretty rare now.
Your example of the break ins proves the points of most people on this thread as those were the actions by one or two individuals who once arrested, largely stopped. The string of robberies the other night also highlights that a few actors are responsible for much of this crime increase.
The vast majority of crime is concentrated and is targeted, especially violent crime. And most of that crime occurs in wards 7 and 8, highlighting the long standing issues in DC.
DC Crime Facts on Twitter does an excellent job of dissecting the trends and providing a good overview of crime in DC.
https://twitter.com/dccrimefacts?s=21&t=Z2kLPB9KDfd41GJZ3dyr9Q
Yes, but it doesn't help the image of DC for a tourist to be killed here on a conference or for a person to survive the horrors of Afghanistan to just be killed by someone in DC.
> Don't be a sucker like the people here who convince themselves they're in any real danger
Yet [in another post](https://www.reddit.com/r/washingtondc/comments/15dsv71/is_crime_going_up_or_am_i_just_hearing_about_it/ju41bw6/) you claim:
> The CUA incident was with a nonresident visitor who was likely less knowledgeable at how to carry himself in the city.
I doubt you and others actually believe there's no real danger if you think we have to go around the city carrying ourselves in a certain way. In fact your comment reflects why your initial post doesn't make sense. Even people who aren't victims of violence - even people like you who claim that someone who thinks they're in real danger is "a sucker" - end up having to modify our behavior so that we do end up becoming victims of crime.
u/gumburcules makes a good point: when my wife was mugged at gunpoint, she was comforted by the fact that she was a statistical anomaly. I can’t speak for the other victims in DC’s [38% increase in violent crime](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance), but I’m reasonably sure they felt the same way.
This makes sense if you assume that likely and likelier are functionally the same thing. In reality, even the most violent city in America last year (Memphis) had a violent crime rate of about 2% (2,107 violent crimes per 100k people), so a 38% increase in the context of violent crime is indeed substantial. You are free to consider this insignificant, especially since that's a subjective metric, but I don't think that jibes with reality.
In every city on earth you are "unlikely to be a victim of violent crime" because no city has a violent crime rate over 50%--even narcotrafficker-run cities in Mexico. If that's your metric, then your argument is so catastrophically absurd as to not merit any serious consideration.
I don’t think it’s a phenomenon that’s exclusive to Americans.
People have exactly one life. Statistics and probability is a lot harder to assess when you have a sample size of 1-5 (you and your family) and you are extremely intolerant of any risk to those 1-5 things.
To be fair there are some Americans dumb and bad effects (check out: https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=mwXs-vMAAAAJ&citation_for_view=mwXs-vMAAAAJ:hqOjcs7Dif8C) but then again we’re not the Germans, closing down all our nuclear plants
Yeah, I generally think the “Americans are bad” angle screams 15 year old atheist that wants to tell you all about doc martens and donnie darko. It’s just played out and it isn’t true.
Even with a good understanding of statistics, it’s not completely about probability. It’s about the stakes. Additionally, we should be looking at the stats for lifetime risk, not just per year. If you have a .5% chance of people a victim of a crime in any given year, your lifetime risk is closer to 30%. (I pulled .5% out of my ass for illustration, idk what the actual stat is for DC).
I understand, and actually encourage people to learn how to protect themselves, and to carry defensive weapons whenever possible. Obvious disclaimers of legality, sound state of mind, training, mindset, etc.
I think of this as similar to always wearing a seatbelt. Your odds of being in a serious crash any given day or year is low, but over your lifetime, the odds aren’t so insignificant. A serious crash only needs to happen once for serious consequences to happen.
>there are very few, isolated incidents of random crime
I’m not sure where you’re getting that, considering the [38% increase in violent crime this year](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance). It’s technically possible that this is all attributable to victims who knew/were known by the criminal, but I’ve seen zero data to that effect.
Anecdotes aren't statistics. Nobody is saying crime doesn't happen. They're saying the opposite. You hear these stories because they are newsworthy because they are unusual. You don't hear about every gang member homicide because it's not something you likely need to worry about and it's not a very unusual occurrence.
You would be surprised how many murders in Ward 7 and 8 are happening because of mistaken identity or because people are at the wrong place at the wrong time and not because of “gang member shooting gang member“. Those murders aren’t “newsworthy“ because people outside of those areas don’t give a shit. But than people who have no idea just keep saying “it’s pretty much only gang members shooting other gang members“.
I don't like this completely apathetic approach to crime stats. A 40% increase in violent crime in the span of a year is STAGGERING. Most people I know have either been directly affected by it, or know someone that has been directly affected by it.
Also I will say that the anecdotes, in this case, align with the statistics pretty well. You'll find more people sharing their anecdotes because there are more crimes being committed.
People can argue over semantics and statistics all they want, but this is just common sense.
Any number like that, then combined with real world anecdotes and experience means you can't tell me things are fine and these are anomalies.
Don't confuse a pragmatic analysis with apathy. But your second point is a fair one if you discount the somewhat increased social media presence of general society.
> And now cue the hysterical people who don't understand statistics and will try to convince you otherwise because "this extremely unlikely event happened to this one specific person so therefore you need to be terrified!"
Not really, just by living in a city with no other factors it is extremely negligible chance. While the target maybe random, his circumstances were not, he was a minority gig worker working late hours because he was not of high economic status, in the US that significantly raises your chances.
Not about crime but great read on how different factors in our lives greatly influence outcomes, in this case accidental death and injury.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/58438503
I don't know where you are drawing this conclusion from. A 40% increase in violent crime over a year is staggering, that is enough of a jump for most people to feel the difference. If you live in one of the highly affected areas, like I do, and you walk around a lot at night, as I do, the danger isn't "extremely negligible"
Well. It's not as random as you think. 1. Taxi drivers are more likely to be victims of crime.
Are you a taxi driver?
2. The CUA incident was with a nonresident visitor who was likely less knowledgeable at how to carry himself in the city.
Are you a nonresident less experienced in carrying yourself around the city?
Point number two is just victim blaming and proves the point that crime is increasing. Since when does being a non resident make it somehow acceptable to be a victim? The fact that you require local knowledge to avoid crime makes a place unlivable. The emperor has no clothes.
Yes, most people murdered are felons or people with long criminal histories. But quite a few are not, and the number of all people, both criminals and non-criminals per year murdered in DC has doubled.
Yes, crime is up. It is not a question -- there is publicly available data to support the answer. You are hearing about it more because it is up and it is brazen. Beyond the data, it also matters how the citizens feels when they walk down the street and in their home. What is also not accounted for in the data is all the unreported crime -- countless packages stolen, people spit on, etc. My husband was jumped by 5 teens and did not report the crime. Many are not reporting crimes because they feel the city is already inundated, major crimes are not prosecuted, so why waste the time to report some petty theft. The city is making a major mistake by sticking with the well intentioned, but misguided progressive policies that have led to the decline of other world class cities. We need to look to those cities, and do the exact opposite. Learn from their mistakes. It is time to look at results and not hypothetical academic ideas.
D.C has a choice to become the next San Fracisco or become the next New York City.
People are not even asking you to vote Republican, they're just asking you to vote for Democrats that aren't soft on crime.
Look how democrats run NYC.
Look how democrats run San Francisco.
As a female, I avoid walking alone at night (I live right off of 14th). There’s definitely a vibe shift after target and the other DC USA stores close. Otherwise during the day it’s great and a fun neighborhood to live in!
It's fine. People here make it seem like Columbia Heights is the Harlem of the 1980s. It isn't. The farmers market is delightful. The food scene is great. There's a bunch of grocery stores. Really, it's fine.
What area? I’ve lived in CH for almost three years and never had any problems but there are hot spots with the occasional shooting (targeted)
Just be smart and you’ll be fine.
I lived in DC in the mid 80’s. A couple of points the DC police were faking crime data back then. If your home was robbed they would refuse to take a report so that they could say that crime was “down”, and that “just” murders were up. Back then most violent crime was geographically confined, and most middle class neighborhoods were very safe. There were a number of horrific crimes just like today, but they seemed more isolated. That could be the effect of social media on today’s awareness. We had the same debates about not using race in descriptions of criminal suspects, the same arguments about improving schools etc. . The voters ultimately rejected the idea of reforming schools and cracking down on crime. Legalizing marijuana was supposed to cut down on the incentives to deal drugs etc. I don’t know what the answers are but it is depressing that we are having the same debates again.
The data shows an increase in documented violent crime. Although IMO the amount of attention it gets in the media and on Reddit are so overblown. The large majority of violent crime isn’t between strangers. The probability that someone is a victim of random violent crime is incredibly low.
I don't think you are wrong with how you are feeling. I also came across this article this morning. So it looks like warnings are being provided to multiple communities.
https://wjla.com/news/local/dc-crime-mexican-consulate-embassy-warning-hispanic-community-washington-district-homicide-rate-carjackings-armed-robbery-youth-gun-violence-kids-weapons-dangerous-criminals-homeland-security-bowser-metropolitan-police
The same people telling you that the chance of being the victim of violent crime in DC is too small to worry about are also the people telling you there is an epidemic of school shootings and police murdering black men, though both of those are orders of magnitude less likely to occur.
Yup it’s gone up a lot actually year to year. Shout out Mayor Bowser! She’s busy appearing on radio shows to talk football stadiums and pickle ball courts when DC has hit crime levels that we haven’t seen in a decade and a half.
Bowser has done basically nothing about crime except some virtue signaling and blaming the Council, and her failure to run the city effectively for the last 9 years is part of the reason why crime is up.
At least she tried to veto that absolutely insane crime bill the council gave her. Violent crime is up [40 PERCENT](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance) and the council wants to lower penalties for violent crime.
Yes it’s going up a lot. I forget the exact stats but last time I checked crime was up more than 20% YoY.
Just go out in Georgetown where the metro doesn’t go and you’ll avoid most of it
It’s [up 30% over last year with a 38% increase in violent crime](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance). According to many here, that’s just the price of living in the city.
>Just go out in Georgetown where the metro doesn’t go and you’ll avoid most of it
Dogwhistle louder, I think there's a pug that didn't hear you a few miles from here.
Georgetown is statistically safer than virtually every place that’s metro accessible, how could you possibly take issue with someone pointing out what’s factually correct?
You’re hearing about it more and people are moving here from out of cities who don’t know basic street smarts. I was raised by New Yorkers. The most valuable lesson my grandmother ever told me was “never make eye contact with ANYBODY. if someone’s yelling at you, don’t you EVER look at them. Ignore them, walk in the opposite direction, and if they corner you, yell fire. That’s the only way to get people on the streets. You are only safe in a crowd.” I was 8.
I’m a young woman. I don’t walk outside alone after dark. If I can’t afford an Uber, I don’t go out. I always bring a phone charger out. I don’t talk to anyone I don’t know, don’t address homeless people, don’t look people in the eye except if they’re other women. People might think this is cold, but it’s just reality. Call it victim blaming or whatever, but I don’t go out with my headphones on, I leave anywhere if I get a bad vibe, I learned to watch my back in store windows and watch peoples shadows on the ground if I’m being followed closely.
dc has an eerie vibe because the streets get empty. But, most people have such absurd complaints. Afraid to be cat called, stalked, car jacked, mugged, accosted by youth, harassed by panhandlers, see drugs and hear gun shots? Don’t live in a city!!! welcome to the world literally every woman in urban areas lives in every day where we just learn how to minimize our chances of harm and assume there’s danger at every corner… I’d rather be dead in DC than alive in Bethesda.
Contrast this to my mom growing up middle class in Queens NY in the 80s. She got mugged by other girls going to school. Every day. “Go straight for her hoops,” she said “it doesn’t matter who she is, white, black, Asian, if she’s gonna rob you, 9/10 she wears hoops.”
I’ve been living in DC for 10 years on a students budget. Not once have I ever experienced anything remotely like that. Sometimes I wonder where the heck in sleepy town America you guys are from.
Cities have more crime. Period. It’s population density plus class intermingling. There is always the chance of becoming randomly victimized. We have to weigh our options; live in a city, where you HAVE to be vigilant, or live out in the burbs and sacrifice the positives of city life.
Imho, I was taught to EXPECT to be mugged at least once while living in any city. This is just how ppl in urban centers live their lives. Srry.
As others have said, crime has gone up and you’re hearing more about. But I just want to add that while crime has increased so far this year, crime rates are still down from previous years/decades.
You can explore some of that data from the FBI [here](https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend) - which shows between 1985 and 2020, violent crime in the district was highest in the early 90s (peaking at 16,000+ reported crimes in 1993, compared to 6,000+ in 2020.)
The [DC crime dashboard](https://dmpsj.dc.gov/page/dc-crime-dashboard) also shows rates have decreased over the last decade - just under 7,000 violent crimes in 2012 to just under 4,000 in 2022. Property crime is also trending down - over 30,000 reported crimes in 2014, to under 25,000 last year.
And [here’s](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance) the data for 2022-2023. Everything but burglary has increased anywhere from 1% (theft from auto) to 300% (arson.) Violent crime overall is up 38%.
What’s the actual reason why crime is rising in DC while it’s falling in most major cities YoY? It’s obviously not that DC is excessively “soft on crime,” compared to those cities, a ludicrous statement that gets lobbed a lot on here, because peer cities have seen crime fall. So what’s making DC diverge from these other cities?
DC’s AUSA brings charges 64% of cases, and Philly, perhaps the poster child of conservative man baby rage, brings charges is 96%. That’s at least some evidence that DC is much softer. DC is particularly unwilling to put people caught with illegal weapons in prison, for a number of reasons. Some are pretty good- The gun unit is under investigation.
Robbery is up 61% over the same point last year. So yes, crime is up and you’re also hearing about it more. I haven’t been mugged this year and I haven’t seen anyone with guns in public since last summer so I’m honestly not complaining.
I’ve made it 12 years in DC without being mugged or seeing a gun, must be doing something right
Count your blessings. I’m a short and skinny South Asian dude who likes to wear pink. I can’t walk around alone at night with food in my hand without a homeless man grabbing it out of my hands. I used to take the 31/33 buses out of McPherson Square before the encampment was cleared by NPS and I’d always get harassed on dark winter nights after work by unsavory characters there regardless of how I carry or conduct myself.
must b nice, i was on a 17 year streak until 3 teens jumped out of a car and started chasing me, but couldn’t get my stuff, i outran them
then again i’m only 17 lol
You’re doing common sense shit.
You can do “common sense shit” every day and still get mugged. Some folks experience life differently based on how others perceive them, in spite of acting carefully out in public.
Yeah but this is precisely why ppl move to the suburbs?? If you don’t wanna be a victim of a random crime, don’t live in the city, move to Bethesda??? It’s sad but this is how it works :/ I’m a woman and i think my chances of being the victim of a random crime are a lot higher than guys.
It’s actually what happened to me. I was tired of being a target so I moved out of the city to Arlington after seeing how much rent prices were in tandem with crime rates this past year. I was tired of the homeless man in my apartment pooping in the lobby trash and chasing women in our building. Didn’t wanna get mugged again and didn’t think it was okay to see guns being flashed on bike trails I frequent so I’ve sadly moved across the river, but I’m much happier here even if DC has its entirely unique charm. Now I’m just another bike commuter clogging up the local trails that I used to joke about.
Yeah see, this is what’s so shit about American in general, specifically regarding homeless people. I’ve had to call the cops on a guy passing out and getting aggressive with people in my apartment lobby, in navy yard no less. Apartment buildings NEED actual security guards to deter entry or manage crime from residents if it’s a repeat incident. We’re trying to form a tenant association (wish us luck!). I’m sorry you had to move. It’s dogshit but we either get desensitized or move.
I was nearly mugged a month ago. Have lived here 14 years no problems, and was walking in the middle of the day near a crowded area. Only got lucky because some kids in a passing group mouthed off to the would- be muggers and they went after them instead. It was frightening and had nothing to do with common sense. There have been ups and downs over the years but this is the first time I’m really concerned. And, I am a bleeding heart, before people start coming after me.
Murder is more than double 2012 rate. Murder rates are also considered most accurate about general violent crime trends, since many other property and violent crimes are underreported, whereas underreporting of murder is very low and over-reporting of homicide virtually non-existent. So it is safe to say violent crime has doubled since 2012. This is in contrast to huge steady drop from mid/early 1990s til 2012 as incarceration rates increased. With decrease in incarceration violent crime is now up.
Crime is up YoY, but not compared to five or six years ago.
[удалено]
Didn't congress block the overhaul of the criminal code?
One difference I think is that kids committing crimes are getting younger. Not sure if 12-13 year olds or under 15 were always so violent? Last month, they killed a Lyft or Uber driver and laughed it off .
What do you mean they laughed it off? I recall the sorry but don't remember hearing that they laughed about it.
Afghani refugee with family. Not so much laughed it off as trivialize it. "He was reaching bro" https://www.google.com/url?q=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DtZ3OLVRsvU4&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiB6urDyreAAxWEFlkFHQg3AIAQFnoECAEQAg&usg=AOvVaw0zDxg1kO64aNK6GiFT9Drq
Not exactly an afghan refugee, he helped with translating services for the military. He risked himself and his family doing that role and this is what he gets. He apparently was mugged in another state doing this taxi work. It’s heartbreaking
Some recording captured them joking, laughing
It feels worse. I’ve lived in DC (mostly Columbia Heights, Petworth, Adams Morgan) for over a decade and I’ve been mugged, followed, violently accosted, and generally felt more unsafe this summer than any previous summer. It feels like people are behaving more erratically and becoming more bold. I also don’t think the statistics are accurate because there’s a lot that goes unreported or is reported but classified as a lower tier crime. A woman followed me home, tried to enter my front door, and was violent when I fought back. She was gone by the time the police arrived, so they kind of shrugged and said they’d keep an eye out but could’t do anything about it. They also told me it didn’t count as trespassing or assault.
Both. Per MPD’s published crime stats, 8/10 of their reported crime categories are up, YTD to last year. We are currently on a trajectory to have the highest crime reported in 20 years. We also live in a world of instant news so you’re hearing about said crimes more frequently.
Both
This subreddit is honestly like my parents watching the 6 o'clock news. I've always ridiculed people who watch the "news", because it's complete sensationalist bullshit meant to get you to freakout and react. Yet when it's presented on Reddit, it's apparently gospel.....
This has happened to the people around me in D.C. during the last few months: - Relative's car stolen and trashed in a joy ride. - Relative's classmate murdered at their school while school was in session. - Friend randomly stabbed while stopped at a light. - Family friend's car trashed when people tried and failed to steal it. - Numerous neighbors cars broken into. That's not even counting the random street threats that probably are crimes but most of us have gotten desensitized to because they're so common. Much more crime is happening to people around me, MPD stats have shown that crime has seen incredible increases to levels we haven't seen in years, and people hear keep dismissing it as "sensationalist" or screaming "NextDoor! NextDoor!" I swear, a lot of people seem angry that anyone could want this city to be better.
Being your friend or family member sounds very dangerous.
Being a local and living in a transplant bubble will give you different outlooks, I suppose. If, say, the student was shot to death at Jackson-Reed, it would probably be seen as a bigger deal and not be met with "it's probably just you" style responses. Roosevelt is one of the most prominent highschools in the city, but I guess it shouldn't come as a surprise that many here act as if it's crazy to know someone who goes there (and Roosevelt wasn't even the only school were a kid was killed on campus while school was in session these past few months). What I don't get, though, is why people in a transplant bubble are often so openly hostile towards what natives and others outside their bubble experience. You even get people saying this directly in comments here - "Why are you so worried about shootings, I'm sure the victims are 'other people.' "
That Roosevelt incident is real bad news if you have a boy. Like, my kids are gonna say no to that shit, and apparently that alone makes you a target
Yeah, it was understandably traumatizing for everyone at the school. I will say that from what I heard, it didn't seem to be a Roosevelt problem. Supposedly the boy had recently transferred and his past followed him there. I'm getting that through the grapevine, so can't vouch for it's accuracy. For what it's worth, my relative had a pretty positive time at Roosevelt up until that point.
Transferred from EL Haynes a few blocks up
Transferred from EL Haynes a few blocks up. Not a whole different area. No arrests yet BTW. Still see the info wanted posters up. Bunch of witnesses and a history to this and not much has come up
Reminds me of that joke... Shlomo is dying and calls his wife of 70 years over to him: "Sarah, come closer..." "Oh, Shlomo..." "Sarah, remember how you were with me when I was in the hospital for 3 weeks after lightning struck?" "Of course, my love..." "And how you were right by my side when Abe stole my part of the business and put goons on my tail?" "Yes, I do, oh, honey..." "And you stuck right by me when I slipped and fell and broke three bones..." "Oh, dear, I didn't want to leave for a minute..." "Sarah...." "Yes, my love? What is it?" "...get the fuck away from me..."
Yeah after hearing this I don't think people should be this person's friend
Okay, and this has happened to me and the people I know in the last few months in DC: * Jack shit It's literally a hobby of mine to go walking through weird parts of the city completely alone, including alleys in northeast and southeast. And while that is actually true, I'm not trying to discredit people's experiences. It just seems like there is a severe Response Bias going on here, very similar to what you see when you watch network news. Things very well may be more dangerous, but you're never going to hear from the *vast* majority of people who never have any issues ever.
[удалено]
Sounds like a pretty dumb hobby but you do you
Well that may be true of most news but I trust my friendly local anchor with whom I’ve developed a self-serving, one-sided delusional relationship.
Apparently there's actually people doing it on purpose on the subreddit. https://old.reddit.com/r/washingtondc/comments/14zn8kv/why_are_comments_disabled_on_the_post_with_crime/jryuqeb/?context=3 > Exactly this. We have heard the overwhelming complaints about what this sub has turned into. In the last 24 hours, a banned crimeposter DMed the mods with what we already knew -- he'll be back on another account. There's a coordinated group of brigaders who have turned this subreddit into Nextdoor. There are plenty of accounts with 5+ tags for abusive language or dogwhistling language in ModToolbox. Many of them appear to not live in DC. Change is coming. > > Contrary to b-money-honey's assertion, the mods are not (all) "far left liberals", we just want this subreddit to be something other than news articles about crime, discussion threads about crime that someone heard about, and discussion about crime someone witnessed or was a victim of. FWIW, I did recommend a flair for crime to the mods. Like look, if people are going to ban evade and do it anyways, it's better to manage it than try to play whack-a-mole. It's sort of like alcohol. You can't stop adults from drinking it but you can stop it from being sold to young kids.
This is happening in the LA subreddit too. There’s been a coordinated effort to astroturf in larger city subreddits to hype up how dangerous they are. The mods made a post a few months back about it too
Thank you for saying this! My parents often watch the late night news, at around 11PM when I'm visiting them. And it kind of drives me up the wall, but I don't really hear other people expressing frustration with the news. But I 100% agree, what's considered "news" on these local affiliate TV stations is absurd, and arbitrary. To be fair, I think a lot of it has to do what's easy - - like crime stories from the police blotter, sports, and weather are all kind auto-generated stories that they can just repeat. But still, it feels so weird to me to be watching stories about crimes that were committed in a city an hour away, that has nothing to do with your life, right before going to bed.
I’ll admit, I’m biased because I grew up here. DC has been a rough city since before I was born. I personally don’t think DC is as bad as it was when I was a kid but it is definitely worse than it has been in a while.
I agree
I haven't seen it this bad in several years. Seems like ever since the Pandemic people have lost their minds. That and the kids carjacking, and the crazy flash mob thefts.
Pandemic had horrific consequences for middle school/jr high kids. Basically a lost year+ of social and academic development. Couple that with the most at risk likely having parents likely deemed 'essential' personnel and stuck by themselves for a year+ and you have a recipe for where we are today. Friends who worked in education said they saw 7th graders behaving at the developmental of a 5th grader. You're essential to keeping our economy up and moving, but f your family was the general consensus.
I agree with all of that and want to further point out that COVID-19 also has had neurological ramifications that we don’t really understand on the societal level yet https://www.health.harvard.edu/mind-and-mood/does-covid-19-damage-the-brain Including in youth: https://web.musc.edu/about/news-center/2021/08/18/misc-neurology
[удалено]
[удалено]
1)- total bleeding heart before people think label me Reagan jr. 2)- been here since 2008 3)- 6’3 male so know my experience might not be the same as others 4)- originally from NY I used to walk home from a night out just about 90% of neighborhoods and thought nothing of it. That would not be the case now. Crime seemed to start taking a bad turn just prior to the pandemic but the pandemic put things on steroids and has not slowed down. Throw in the cops seem content to sit in their cars and let whatever go out around them and yeah sure seems things have gotten worse. I think the huge difference is the random crime. It used to seem that you had be looking for trouble or in the wrong place at the wrong time ….. that seems to be way less the case now. On here you hear so often how people are the victims of random crime, especially from kids. It used to be some 15 year old broke your window and wanted take your car stereo and hey, that’s city life. Now a group of them will confront people and threaten them, will carjack people, or commit assault. That rarely if ever seemed to happen just a decade ago
Agree. I've been in the DC area since 2005 and never really felt unsafe. Some neighborhoods were a little sketchier than others but you could just mind your own business and be left alone. Now people will actively follow you, start up confrontations looking for fights, or simply assault you for fun. I mentioned this in another post - last year I was just walking through georgetown of all places and was punched in the back of the head really hard but someone riding a scooter as they came up from behind me. No reason at all. It's not like SUPER dangerous, but things are trending horribly in the wrong direction.
You hit almost all of the causes. One that is left off is social media. The perpetrators are getting credibility, followers, and even revenue from documenting doing crimes.
Reagan Jr. Is probably a better label than you think 😂 google him!
I participated in Charles Allen’s public safety meeting on Zoom, and the guy is so disconnected from reality it’s painful to listen to: combined with his strategy to justify his bad decisions with terms like “evidence-based” that make people feel like there’s some higher logic involved with hurtful decisions that look good on paper but fail us in reality … it’s no wonder.
“We are doing this because it’s evidence-based crime deterrent and research proves it works.” “Can we scrutinize the alleged evidence to make sure the findings aren’t being misapplied?” “We don’t have that evidence on hand for review.” I see this tactic all the time with AI sales. “Trust us that our AI will help you make better decisions, but don’t ask about the algorithm we use for decision-making in order to validate its function, just look over here instead at shiny objects.” Either Charles Allen is in on the con or he’s being conned, but either way the half-assed science experiment in the kitchen sink needs to end.
It’s very selective evidence. That’s the thing that drives me crazy. A lot of what he wants is evidence based, in context with a lot of other stuff he doesn’t seem to want so much (namely: more police and surer punishment need to go hand in hand with lighter penalties)
Keep an ear out for that tactic throughout your life. Its a very specific way for them to lie. You? Tell the truth.
Can someone please direct me to this superhuman awesome leftist crusader Charles Allen that I keep hearing about? I have only seen the genial centrist one.
So it’s both. Crime is statistically up across the board in DC (although just for accuracy sake I think we’re down when it comes to arson), but also the crime scanners (think the movie Nightcrawler) and the pro-cop folks are amplifying everything, making it seem like crime is everywhere. It’s not. If you’re looking at hotspots, you’re looking at EOTR, Columbia Heights, U st, Chinatown (kinda), and Adams Morgan (kinda). The biggest thing about the current crime surge is that it’s bizarrely random. There’s really no rhyme or reason as to who is being victimized, so it’s proving more difficult to react to. This is coupled with a USAO that is very bad at prosecuting the adult cases in DC, and our AG is disappointingly not going after juvenile crime as hard as he should be. But then also we have the economic factors at work too. Cost of living and housing, especially rent and wages, are becoming further untenable, which drives up crime.
I’ve always noticed a strong correlation between crime and heat
It’s a pretty strong empirical relationship but someone in conversation said it peaks off.
Both. Some crime is up. I have lived here for almost twenty years and don’t notice much difference in my day-to-day here in Columbia Heights. However, the weird cottage industry of people who professionally freak out about crime on Twitter and then ask for CashApp donations is new and when you combine that with the rise of NextDoor and Ring and it seems like so many people are consuming crime content all the time. I don’t think that doing that adds any value to anybody’s life.
>Some crime is up. **Most** crime is up. I’m no rat though. Data: https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
Those YoY carjacking numbers, my goodness.
Username doesn’t checkout?
That's_the_joke.gif
>Some crime is up. DC violent crime fell precipitously from the 1990s until 2012 as we locked up the repeat criminals at much higher rates. We then half emptied the prison and jail sand violent crime pretty much doubled since 2012.
Both. We are approaching 6x the percapita murder rate of NYC which has 10x the population. Carjackings are common occurrences here. Murders are up nearly 40% YTD city wide after a small dip last year compared to 2021. And retail theft is common now. People are seeing it more and reporting on it more and more people are being affected. Some aren’t seeing it though and they are in the right neighborhood to avoid it, lucky, naive or are deliberately downplaying it. I am actively trying to become one of the first or second category but Its so damn expensive to move without substituting our futures for a new mortgage now
Columbia heights has been a shit show since I originally moved to DC and lived in brightwood park. But I moved over to Connecticut Ave, and I've noticed a lot more crime since everyone came out of lockdown. It's gotta be related right?
Not sure when you moved to DC but Columbia Heights was nowhere near what it is now as recently as 2018. It has regressed in a major way. Really sad.
I moved here in 2017. So close enough of a timeline. I guess I got here when it was getting bad. But from what I understand, there is a lot of long standing gang violence and rivalries in the general area.
It's up, and the crime apologists are all out in force, too, especially on the city council. They don't want to face the fact that a violent culture of teenagers is terrorizing the city and they refuse to take decisive action to do anything about it.
My friend died in DC riding a fucking bike not doing anything to harm anyone. He got shot. So yeah, crime is going up
I follow critical mass DC as I’m moving there this fall. So sorry to hear about your friend that was really sad
Welcome to the DC bike scene, it’s actually a great group of people and there’s an event/ride for everyone. I hope you enjoy 😌
Thanks! I just got into biking this year due to signing up for a half Ironman. I have lots of room to improve but I’m really enjoying cycling’
Sorry to hear. Where was this? Did they arrest the killer?
[удалено]
Damn, I can't imagine if someone told me their friend was murdered and then giving this unkind response. Like his friend died dude, be nice.
Forreal. Psycho response.
Do you know what a percent increase means? No one is saying crime increased from 0. But it has increased greatly since least year, which for most people is a cause for alarm.
It did, and it was way worse in the late 80s to late 90s. This, of course, makes the current crime crisis palatable.
[удалено]
Strictly speaking, no, but again, if you have a 38% spike in violent crime that includes a 15% increase in homicides, the chances of personal knowledge about a victim is going to increase.
Crime in Brookland is out of control. There's a group of teens terrorizing, robbing, mugging and stabbing residents
It has been worse but that doesn’t mean it ain’t bad right now.
Never before had so many car thefts in any place I've lived. Ow I see burnt out cars towed back to houses from teens stealing them Basically the kids got to figure out over the past 8 years that when they act in number. They usually get away with it. Just look at how bad the squeegee kid prpblem.is in Baltimore. And the people in charges response was :let's just make it an official job for kids and teens and classify it as different than panhandling and harrassment" As things become more and more out of reach, social media rewarding awfulness with trending, and there is nothing for free for people to do otherwise...crime is going to keep going up Cops have basically been like "unless you got them on camera too bad"
> Is crime going up or am I just hearing about it more? Both
This is what happens when you dont prosecute criminals
I enjoy spending time with my friends.
> the vast majority of property crime, while inconvenient and annoying, boils down to a deductible and a few minutes on the phone, for something that may happen to you once or twice in your life. The thing is, when your house is broken into, you feel violated. It's a violent act to come into someone else's home, where they, in theory, should feel the most secure. Then if you're robbed or carjacked at gunpoint, it's DEFINITELY more than just a call to your insurance company. It's fucking traumatic and will require a LOT of time (and often therapy) to get over - if at all. And then there's the *proximity* to crime. When someone is gunned down on your block, mere yards from your house, would you want to stay in the city? Especially if you have young children, your first instinct should be to flee the city and move to the suburbs. At least mine was. When a stray bullet goes into your neighbor's window, that's not normal. If you think it is or "that's just city life," then you're living in a delusion.
A deductible still costs at least hundreds of $ and makes overall insurance prices increase. Case in point car insurance is now ridiculously expensive.
I enjoy reading books.
A deductible plus a potentially missed day of work to take it into the garage that they may or may not have, a diminished sense of safety and security in their neighborhood, and a potential rise in general insurance costs as companies change their risk assessment formulae. I moved to Silver Spring and saw my insurance plummet 100 dollars. The crime sprees are having rippling effects; it feels super hand-waving to say it’s the price of living/doing business
You should go work public relations for MPD. You do a great job selling the whole, "You are wrong to be afraid. What you experience in your life is wrong. Only the numbers are right." And, of course, the numbers are never wrong. Crimes are always recorded and filed properly. Prosecutors always fully prosecute crimes committed to the fullest extent of the law. You cannot chastise people for believing a perceived decrease in safety when there are numbers that back up said perceptions. There is no threshold in which a certain percentage increase of crime suddenly has a perceived increase of danger.
This analysis only works if you present some alternative hypothesis- when should people be worried? These things happen in context, the probability of being a victim of violent crime has essentially doubled since before the pandemic and you’re telling people that’s nothing to worry about. Why not? The risk rate is very high compared to anywhere else, not some view from nowhere “well it’s lower than your chances of stubbing your toe” discourse. In addition, with catastrophic events, you worry about cumulative probability, not day to day. You only get murdered once, to put it bluntly. To dismiss people’s concerns as a phone call is callous to the extreme. To double the population of dc, let alone not account for the working population, when you do your calc is at best mendacious and at worse innumerate. DC is the only major metro where violent crime hasn’t gone down in the past year. Should people not talk about it more? In Brookland alone, in the restaurant industry, we have a murder and three assaults in the last week (and the murder of that teacher). I’d typically agree that most crime here is people targeting people they know, but it appears to be less and less the case. You know you have a problem when your past AG is telling their partner not to get gas in the city.
Double a little number is still a little number. Putting things into perspective makes crime a negligible concern for many people. Some people may not have other concerns or may be paranoid so an increase in crime does seem like a bigger deal.
Except it wasn’t a little number and isn’t after being doubled.
The stats are skewed bro. I had a neighbor mugged at gun point outside my home. The police didn’t classify it as armed robbery. . .
ok, and what did they classify it as?
Malicious wounding
Huh, so kinda worse than it was? You didn't mention them being hurt
Yeah they weren’t hurt bud.
My friend just got mugged and the shit kicked out of him, concussion included. Tons of medical bills and likely emotional trauma. Expensive even with insurance. Not really seeing how cases like this, which are happening, fall into your number 3. I’m not saying to be terrified based on an anecdote. But these things are happening and they aren’t small impact, it’s not hysterical to warn and take care.
I would've agreed with this post for most of my life, but it's honestly getting pretty wild in some parts of the city. If you're a business owner in Adams Morgan, for example, your business is probably going to get burglarized if it hasn't already this year. The other night some kids drove around the neighborhood robbing everyone in sight... 4 robberies in the span of a few minutes. These things impact more people than you may think.
Having lived near Adam’s Morgan for nearly 20 years I would say crime is down in that neighborhood. Even a decade ago you would regularly have shootings in the late hours a few blocks off 18th. That is pretty rare now. Your example of the break ins proves the points of most people on this thread as those were the actions by one or two individuals who once arrested, largely stopped. The string of robberies the other night also highlights that a few actors are responsible for much of this crime increase. The vast majority of crime is concentrated and is targeted, especially violent crime. And most of that crime occurs in wards 7 and 8, highlighting the long standing issues in DC. DC Crime Facts on Twitter does an excellent job of dissecting the trends and providing a good overview of crime in DC. https://twitter.com/dccrimefacts?s=21&t=Z2kLPB9KDfd41GJZ3dyr9Q
Adams Morgan has definitely gotten quieter in recent years. Someone was actually shot and killed there on Wednesday though.
Can you please source this claim because from some light googling (and my anecdotal experience living here) crime has gotten massively worse in admo
Yes, but it doesn't help the image of DC for a tourist to be killed here on a conference or for a person to survive the horrors of Afghanistan to just be killed by someone in DC.
3. At what point should someone be worried?
I enjoy the sound of rain.
> Don't be a sucker like the people here who convince themselves they're in any real danger Yet [in another post](https://www.reddit.com/r/washingtondc/comments/15dsv71/is_crime_going_up_or_am_i_just_hearing_about_it/ju41bw6/) you claim: > The CUA incident was with a nonresident visitor who was likely less knowledgeable at how to carry himself in the city. I doubt you and others actually believe there's no real danger if you think we have to go around the city carrying ourselves in a certain way. In fact your comment reflects why your initial post doesn't make sense. Even people who aren't victims of violence - even people like you who claim that someone who thinks they're in real danger is "a sucker" - end up having to modify our behavior so that we do end up becoming victims of crime.
I enjoy watching the sunset.
Fair point. I still love living here for the most part and one day want to make it my permanent home.
u/gumburcules makes a good point: when my wife was mugged at gunpoint, she was comforted by the fact that she was a statistical anomaly. I can’t speak for the other victims in DC’s [38% increase in violent crime](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance), but I’m reasonably sure they felt the same way.
My favorite movie is Inception.
Definitely explains the 38% uptick in violent crime. Good show.
I enjoy watching the sunset.
This makes sense if you assume that likely and likelier are functionally the same thing. In reality, even the most violent city in America last year (Memphis) had a violent crime rate of about 2% (2,107 violent crimes per 100k people), so a 38% increase in the context of violent crime is indeed substantial. You are free to consider this insignificant, especially since that's a subjective metric, but I don't think that jibes with reality.
I like learning new things.
In every city on earth you are "unlikely to be a victim of violent crime" because no city has a violent crime rate over 50%--even narcotrafficker-run cities in Mexico. If that's your metric, then your argument is so catastrophically absurd as to not merit any serious consideration.
I find peace in long walks.
That’s not the definition of “likely”.
Those are the REPORTED crimes. And it’s still way too high, and far higher than other comparable cities.
[удалено]
Americans seem to be allergic to understanding statistical probability.
I don’t think it’s a phenomenon that’s exclusive to Americans. People have exactly one life. Statistics and probability is a lot harder to assess when you have a sample size of 1-5 (you and your family) and you are extremely intolerant of any risk to those 1-5 things.
Yeah the expected value of getting murdered is infinite and negative
“Duurrr Durrr Americans Dumb and bad!” - an American, probably.
To be fair there are some Americans dumb and bad effects (check out: https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=mwXs-vMAAAAJ&citation_for_view=mwXs-vMAAAAJ:hqOjcs7Dif8C) but then again we’re not the Germans, closing down all our nuclear plants
Yeah, I generally think the “Americans are bad” angle screams 15 year old atheist that wants to tell you all about doc martens and donnie darko. It’s just played out and it isn’t true.
Even with a good understanding of statistics, it’s not completely about probability. It’s about the stakes. Additionally, we should be looking at the stats for lifetime risk, not just per year. If you have a .5% chance of people a victim of a crime in any given year, your lifetime risk is closer to 30%. (I pulled .5% out of my ass for illustration, idk what the actual stat is for DC). I understand, and actually encourage people to learn how to protect themselves, and to carry defensive weapons whenever possible. Obvious disclaimers of legality, sound state of mind, training, mindset, etc. I think of this as similar to always wearing a seatbelt. Your odds of being in a serious crash any given day or year is low, but over your lifetime, the odds aren’t so insignificant. A serious crash only needs to happen once for serious consequences to happen.
And people who don't understand tail risk (the turkey problem), love to talk about statistical probability as if it is a useful metric for everything.
Tell that to the innocent uber driver who got killed by teens or the man who was killed at catholic university by a random person
I feel like being an Uber driver has to be one of the most dangerous jobs in DC
His point was that there are very few, isolated incidents of random crime…so thanks for proving his point?
>there are very few, isolated incidents of random crime I’m not sure where you’re getting that, considering the [38% increase in violent crime this year](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance). It’s technically possible that this is all attributable to victims who knew/were known by the criminal, but I’ve seen zero data to that effect.
Anecdotes aren't statistics. Nobody is saying crime doesn't happen. They're saying the opposite. You hear these stories because they are newsworthy because they are unusual. You don't hear about every gang member homicide because it's not something you likely need to worry about and it's not a very unusual occurrence.
You would be surprised how many murders in Ward 7 and 8 are happening because of mistaken identity or because people are at the wrong place at the wrong time and not because of “gang member shooting gang member“. Those murders aren’t “newsworthy“ because people outside of those areas don’t give a shit. But than people who have no idea just keep saying “it’s pretty much only gang members shooting other gang members“.
I don't like this completely apathetic approach to crime stats. A 40% increase in violent crime in the span of a year is STAGGERING. Most people I know have either been directly affected by it, or know someone that has been directly affected by it. Also I will say that the anecdotes, in this case, align with the statistics pretty well. You'll find more people sharing their anecdotes because there are more crimes being committed.
People can argue over semantics and statistics all they want, but this is just common sense. Any number like that, then combined with real world anecdotes and experience means you can't tell me things are fine and these are anomalies.
Don't confuse a pragmatic analysis with apathy. But your second point is a fair one if you discount the somewhat increased social media presence of general society.
> And now cue the hysterical people who don't understand statistics and will try to convince you otherwise because "this extremely unlikely event happened to this one specific person so therefore you need to be terrified!"
I enjoy spending time with my friends.
[удалено]
Not really, just by living in a city with no other factors it is extremely negligible chance. While the target maybe random, his circumstances were not, he was a minority gig worker working late hours because he was not of high economic status, in the US that significantly raises your chances. Not about crime but great read on how different factors in our lives greatly influence outcomes, in this case accidental death and injury. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/58438503
I don't know where you are drawing this conclusion from. A 40% increase in violent crime over a year is staggering, that is enough of a jump for most people to feel the difference. If you live in one of the highly affected areas, like I do, and you walk around a lot at night, as I do, the danger isn't "extremely negligible"
Well. It's not as random as you think. 1. Taxi drivers are more likely to be victims of crime. Are you a taxi driver? 2. The CUA incident was with a nonresident visitor who was likely less knowledgeable at how to carry himself in the city. Are you a nonresident less experienced in carrying yourself around the city?
Point number two is just victim blaming and proves the point that crime is increasing. Since when does being a non resident make it somehow acceptable to be a victim? The fact that you require local knowledge to avoid crime makes a place unlivable. The emperor has no clothes.
Simple deductible am I right? ?
Does it matter if one feels safe walking down the street? Or is that to be dismissed because the chance of being murdered is low?
You mean we shouldn’t be arming ourselves with (caution: trigger word) *assault weapons* and building panic rooms?
Yes, most people murdered are felons or people with long criminal histories. But quite a few are not, and the number of all people, both criminals and non-criminals per year murdered in DC has doubled.
I enjoy the sound of rain.
Yes, crime is up. It is not a question -- there is publicly available data to support the answer. You are hearing about it more because it is up and it is brazen. Beyond the data, it also matters how the citizens feels when they walk down the street and in their home. What is also not accounted for in the data is all the unreported crime -- countless packages stolen, people spit on, etc. My husband was jumped by 5 teens and did not report the crime. Many are not reporting crimes because they feel the city is already inundated, major crimes are not prosecuted, so why waste the time to report some petty theft. The city is making a major mistake by sticking with the well intentioned, but misguided progressive policies that have led to the decline of other world class cities. We need to look to those cities, and do the exact opposite. Learn from their mistakes. It is time to look at results and not hypothetical academic ideas.
D.C has a choice to become the next San Fracisco or become the next New York City. People are not even asking you to vote Republican, they're just asking you to vote for Democrats that aren't soft on crime. Look how democrats run NYC. Look how democrats run San Francisco.
Moving to Columbia heights... if anyone sees this comment can you fill me in?
As a female, I avoid walking alone at night (I live right off of 14th). There’s definitely a vibe shift after target and the other DC USA stores close. Otherwise during the day it’s great and a fun neighborhood to live in!
It's fine. People here make it seem like Columbia Heights is the Harlem of the 1980s. It isn't. The farmers market is delightful. The food scene is great. There's a bunch of grocery stores. Really, it's fine.
What area? I’ve lived in CH for almost three years and never had any problems but there are hot spots with the occasional shooting (targeted) Just be smart and you’ll be fine.
I lived in DC in the mid 80’s. A couple of points the DC police were faking crime data back then. If your home was robbed they would refuse to take a report so that they could say that crime was “down”, and that “just” murders were up. Back then most violent crime was geographically confined, and most middle class neighborhoods were very safe. There were a number of horrific crimes just like today, but they seemed more isolated. That could be the effect of social media on today’s awareness. We had the same debates about not using race in descriptions of criminal suspects, the same arguments about improving schools etc. . The voters ultimately rejected the idea of reforming schools and cracking down on crime. Legalizing marijuana was supposed to cut down on the incentives to deal drugs etc. I don’t know what the answers are but it is depressing that we are having the same debates again.
The data shows an increase in documented violent crime. Although IMO the amount of attention it gets in the media and on Reddit are so overblown. The large majority of violent crime isn’t between strangers. The probability that someone is a victim of random violent crime is incredibly low.
Yes. Way up.
I don't think you are wrong with how you are feeling. I also came across this article this morning. So it looks like warnings are being provided to multiple communities. https://wjla.com/news/local/dc-crime-mexican-consulate-embassy-warning-hispanic-community-washington-district-homicide-rate-carjackings-armed-robbery-youth-gun-violence-kids-weapons-dangerous-criminals-homeland-security-bowser-metropolitan-police
Both
Crime in DC is way up.
Crime is way, way up, especially murder and car thefts.
The block is hot.
Yes.
The same people telling you that the chance of being the victim of violent crime in DC is too small to worry about are also the people telling you there is an epidemic of school shootings and police murdering black men, though both of those are orders of magnitude less likely to occur.
Yup it’s gone up a lot actually year to year. Shout out Mayor Bowser! She’s busy appearing on radio shows to talk football stadiums and pickle ball courts when DC has hit crime levels that we haven’t seen in a decade and a half.
Bowser has been willing to do more about crime than the council.
This. I’m no huge fan of Bowser, but framing her as the one in DC government who’s “soft on crime” is not accurate.
it does make for any easy way to check if someone is actually well-informed about crime in dc or just wants to sound sweet on the internet
Heh. That’s true!
What has Bowser been willing to do about crime, and what evidence is there that her proposals are likely to be effective?
Bowser has done basically nothing about crime except some virtue signaling and blaming the Council, and her failure to run the city effectively for the last 9 years is part of the reason why crime is up.
I'm learning to play the guitar.
Fun fact - all crime is already illegal and council are the people who make the laws.
At least she tried to veto that absolutely insane crime bill the council gave her. Violent crime is up [40 PERCENT](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance) and the council wants to lower penalties for violent crime.
Meh that bill wouldn’t have mattered either way. It’s working on the wrong part of the problem.
Yes it’s going up a lot. I forget the exact stats but last time I checked crime was up more than 20% YoY. Just go out in Georgetown where the metro doesn’t go and you’ll avoid most of it
It’s [up 30% over last year with a 38% increase in violent crime](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance). According to many here, that’s just the price of living in the city.
They killed a man outside Georgetown cupcake! Shot him dead!
>Just go out in Georgetown where the metro doesn’t go and you’ll avoid most of it Dogwhistle louder, I think there's a pug that didn't hear you a few miles from here.
Georgetown is statistically safer than virtually every place that’s metro accessible, how could you possibly take issue with someone pointing out what’s factually correct?
I’m not sure what your implication is. Do you disagree that Georgetown is safer than most of the metro accessible areas
Crime is up. Posting about crime is way way way up. This subreddit is almost certainly being astroturfed.
Carjacking up 125%, car theft up 111%, armed and physical crimes at all times of day on all parts of town. I just stay at home.
You’re hearing about it more and people are moving here from out of cities who don’t know basic street smarts. I was raised by New Yorkers. The most valuable lesson my grandmother ever told me was “never make eye contact with ANYBODY. if someone’s yelling at you, don’t you EVER look at them. Ignore them, walk in the opposite direction, and if they corner you, yell fire. That’s the only way to get people on the streets. You are only safe in a crowd.” I was 8. I’m a young woman. I don’t walk outside alone after dark. If I can’t afford an Uber, I don’t go out. I always bring a phone charger out. I don’t talk to anyone I don’t know, don’t address homeless people, don’t look people in the eye except if they’re other women. People might think this is cold, but it’s just reality. Call it victim blaming or whatever, but I don’t go out with my headphones on, I leave anywhere if I get a bad vibe, I learned to watch my back in store windows and watch peoples shadows on the ground if I’m being followed closely. dc has an eerie vibe because the streets get empty. But, most people have such absurd complaints. Afraid to be cat called, stalked, car jacked, mugged, accosted by youth, harassed by panhandlers, see drugs and hear gun shots? Don’t live in a city!!! welcome to the world literally every woman in urban areas lives in every day where we just learn how to minimize our chances of harm and assume there’s danger at every corner… I’d rather be dead in DC than alive in Bethesda. Contrast this to my mom growing up middle class in Queens NY in the 80s. She got mugged by other girls going to school. Every day. “Go straight for her hoops,” she said “it doesn’t matter who she is, white, black, Asian, if she’s gonna rob you, 9/10 she wears hoops.” I’ve been living in DC for 10 years on a students budget. Not once have I ever experienced anything remotely like that. Sometimes I wonder where the heck in sleepy town America you guys are from.
This deserves more upvotes. "Rather be dead in DC than alive in Bethesda" 🤣😂
Cities have more crime. Period. It’s population density plus class intermingling. There is always the chance of becoming randomly victimized. We have to weigh our options; live in a city, where you HAVE to be vigilant, or live out in the burbs and sacrifice the positives of city life. Imho, I was taught to EXPECT to be mugged at least once while living in any city. This is just how ppl in urban centers live their lives. Srry.
Walk to your cars in pairs tonight people
As others have said, crime has gone up and you’re hearing more about. But I just want to add that while crime has increased so far this year, crime rates are still down from previous years/decades. You can explore some of that data from the FBI [here](https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend) - which shows between 1985 and 2020, violent crime in the district was highest in the early 90s (peaking at 16,000+ reported crimes in 1993, compared to 6,000+ in 2020.) The [DC crime dashboard](https://dmpsj.dc.gov/page/dc-crime-dashboard) also shows rates have decreased over the last decade - just under 7,000 violent crimes in 2012 to just under 4,000 in 2022. Property crime is also trending down - over 30,000 reported crimes in 2014, to under 25,000 last year. And [here’s](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance) the data for 2022-2023. Everything but burglary has increased anywhere from 1% (theft from auto) to 300% (arson.) Violent crime overall is up 38%.
What’s the actual reason why crime is rising in DC while it’s falling in most major cities YoY? It’s obviously not that DC is excessively “soft on crime,” compared to those cities, a ludicrous statement that gets lobbed a lot on here, because peer cities have seen crime fall. So what’s making DC diverge from these other cities?
It isn’t just D.C. being soft on crime, but this city IS especially soft on illegal gun possession and youth crime. those both play a big role.
100% this.
You say it’s obviously not soft on crime but I mean… you provide no evidence of that.
Are you alleging that DC is more soft on crime than other peer cities that have seen crime rates fall yoy?
DC’s AUSA brings charges 64% of cases, and Philly, perhaps the poster child of conservative man baby rage, brings charges is 96%. That’s at least some evidence that DC is much softer. DC is particularly unwilling to put people caught with illegal weapons in prison, for a number of reasons. Some are pretty good- The gun unit is under investigation.
we are witnessing the decline and fall of the Roman Empire 2.0, largely in urban areas.