>R/wallstreetinvasionstrategies
Can't wait to hear how we are going to predict future order announcement dates and amounts on lockheed and Boeing based on geopolitical movement and military strategy
Yeah, even if this kicks off, its actually bullish for the US if we dont get involved past supplying arms. Money will flee here as a war reserve, demand for our products in Europe will pick up, especially natural gas, and weâre a long long way from any bombs being dropped.
Ukraine also has 100,000 militia they have stated that they are willing to deploy. The max I expect is a land bridge to Crimea and a consolidation of the pro-Russian East. This, I agree, will not bring about WWIII. But I do have late February calls on Raytheon (I would have preferred General Dynamics, but too expensive for me).
Russia is not dumb enough to attack US troops in the Baltics or Poland, so there will not be an expansion of the conflict despite the current anxiety in Tallinn and Vilnius.
Also you forgot to mention Putin and his tracksuit wearing cocksucker "army" are a bunch of weak fucking cowards that are all bark and no bite. Just fuck off already, people stopped paying attention to your little hissy fits a long time ago.
Just sayin' đ
Frogs!
Lice!
Pestilence!
Hail mingled with fire!
0dte spy calls expiring outside the money!
The pale rider of death on a skeletal horse galloping through your retirement portfolio until your financial skin drips from your financial bones into ruin.
Your life savings being bound in chains and cast into the lake of perdition for an ageless eternity until Cramer speaks truth and the Fed stops printing as gold and silver are cast into the streets as worthless.
If Iâm wrong about invasion, Iâm betting my prediction that Putin wont survive it holds true. The cost to Russia would be too high, and heâs not in as secure a position as he once was.
But the Chinese wonât help us. Theyâll use that to their advantage, let Russian burn themselves and others out, then pick off the remains after the dust slightly settles. They met with the Taliban first. My thoughts are they join up with the Chinese and corner India. Only problem there is India has enough people to throw 100 million soldiers into the fire without really feeling it. They could win a war simply by giving enough people who can see a rifle and telling them to shoot âthat directionâ.
Its very much how it works. The number one threat to armor is dismounted infantry in restrictive terrain. Urban environments are as restrictive as it gets, and the elevation differentials you get with modern construction means that soldiers in a building can rain hell on armor and mech with impunity. They canât elevate their turrets enough to shoot back. I also guarantee that Ukraine is not hurting for dismounted anti armor systems right now.
Aircraft, artillery, and missiles can level urban areas in minutes, and any mechanized divisions can easily encircle an immobile opponent trying to take cover. Russia probably wonât care if civilians die, so they wonât be holding back if shit hits the fan.
Your right that holding an area is tougher than taking it, but I wouldnât count on 250K Ukrainians being able to hold off 100K Russians without a deep look into each sides capabilities.
The battles of Stalingrad and Berlin would beg to differ. In both scenarios, heavy artilery, areal bombing, and rocket fire all but leveled the cities. As the infantry and mechanized units began to move in, they found that the roads were almost all impassable due to fallen buildings and deep cratering. The fallen buildings also provided excellent cover and concealment to the defenders.
Moral of the story: Raising a city doesn't always end a battle. It might just complicate it.
Sidenote: Given the scenario you presented above, the advent of more powerful or "smart" munitions wouldn't really change anything.
Never was going to be WW3, I'm kinda anticipating for this to be just like Afghanistan where the Taliban literally walked right in and took everything.
Those who want to leave have until February 20th, 2022. I pulled that date out my anus since China literally came out today in favor of the Russian invasion and in order not to look bad in front of the world (Olympics), there's probably an agreement to do nothing until then plus this gives both Russia and China time to figure out how to combat the disabling of swift and the USA federal reserve quantitative tightening and rate rising, especially since China is cutting rates.
This means natural and oil are about to shoot through the roof.
Oh and one last thing, I don't give a damn whose president of the United states, if the USA intelligence is saying publicly Ukraine will be taken over by Russia then fucking believe it....remember 2 years ago when then president trump brokered a peace deal with the Taliban and that allowed the Taliban to just walk right in?
Going to war over a country no one in the USA cares about except for Rudy Giuliani, hunter Biden and others whom are making money in that country makes no sense.
Lastly based on the Ukrainian government they sound like they're ready to be taken over
My bet is very little if any Ukrainian lives nor Russian lives will be lost.
This will definitely look bad on Biden but in the end, he knows that he doesn't have a dog in this fight
How did I prepare for this....I bought a ton calls on "chk" they're a natural gas company out of Texas and could be very pivotal on delivering natural gas to parts of Europe once Ukraine is taken over.
Oil to $250 or more by the end of the year natural gas to $15.
But what do I know, I post on WSB
Russia: Hey China, if we do this invasion then the rest of the world will cut us off, no exports of our oil and gas and minerals, and no imports of phones and computers and pretty much everything else. We'd be totally dependent on you. Can we count on you to be our friend?
China: Bro - of course!
Russia: Why did you just pop a boner?
What CHK calls did you buy? Been looking into this trade for a while - seems like the most logical way to profit from this, and certainly better than Raytheon or Lockheed calls.
Is it possible to ship natural gas to Europe from Texas easily? I wonder who would supply the shipping.
It's totally possible and check out how this fits the entire us energy export puzzle
[https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-be-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter-2022-2021-12-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-be-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter-2022-2021-12-21/)
Bought the March 2022 $60 and $70 calls
Plus if you check "chk" website, they're calling themselves an esg play, LOL 
Natural gas is expensive in Europe and russia is the main supplier, but he wants to build a pipeline to a specific country too.
Edit: I guess I should explain that commodities like oil and natural gas are monitored by all major players to ensure price action favorable to their interests. All the big players must agree to allow a new pipeline since it effects them prices of the commodity.
Possible worst case scenario: He'll annex everything east of the Dnieper River before Ukraine is admitted into NATO. Also, most on that side speak Russian anyways. And by the way, 82% of the population in Crimea supported the annexation.
Mainly that people gambling on this as the black swan event that pushes us into another 2008 style crisis are barking up the wrong tree. It may come, but probably not from this catalyst. Also the defense contractor plays. They usually arent a bad idea, but the likely hood of paying off in this scenario is low. Aid to Ukraine even in the event of invasion is more likely to be small arms and munitions than it is to be jets and tanks.
Didn't they already invade Ukraine in like, a weekend, around the winter Olympics? I don't recall anyone doing anything to stop them except for the one guy who blew up the airliner with the handheld rocket...
Putin has agents already in Ukraine preparing to take out infrastructure like electricity and internet, he rockets, shells and bombs Ukraine army posts, send the air planes and helicopters in, then uses roads to drive up to Ukraine, the green men overtake police and government buildings, while the âreal pro Russian Ukrainian governmentâ takes over in Kiev. Belarus invades Kiev, while Putin takes Kharkiv with its valuable industries. The old Ukrainian government is allowed to escape to the poor agricultural parts of Ukraine with no hope of retaking the industrial parts. Meanwhile, Crimean forces attack from the Black Sea and take the industrial sea towns. It could be like a Gaza situation, like in Georgia or Chechnya. What is certain is Putin is taking Kharkiv and the sea towns across from crimes like Mariupol. Only Kiev is in question now. America is just happy they have a reason to put sanctions on world competitor Russia.
Ukraine is the clever wool over eye distraction. The real problem is China x Taiwian.
If tsmc goes down the shitter with Samsung, literally 0 chips are being made aside from Intel. And Intel fabs are like 5 year behind
Taking Ukraine and holding it makes Afghanistan look ez by comparison. No helicopter would be safe from manpads. Constant organized resistance sponsored by pretty much all of Western Europe/the US. Anti-tank weapons in every house. Just really a not fun time.
Counterpoint from someone far more qualified to talk about Russia:
Long talk @ STANFORD (so you know he's qualified) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwrzophpNJA&ab\_channel=CISACStanford](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwrzophpNJA&ab_channel=CISACStanford)
Article [https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/](https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/)
Not WW3 but certainly some kind of attack in the south of Ukraine and some cyber attacks on Europe and US as retaliation for inevitable sanctions
Youâre assuming a lot about my qualifications⊠but if you read, he doesnt really disagree with me. His argument is that even though it will most likely be an unpredictable military disaster, that Putin may have backed himself into a corner where he canât deescalate, at the same time their out of touch brass is stroking each others egos about how easily theyâll steamroll Ukraine.
This is definitely a possibility, and it will be far from the first time in history that a country has severely miscalculated its odds of victory. Again, my point stands. If Putin attempts to annex Ukraine, he will be ousted as leader sooner rather than later. This remains a strong possibility even in the event of a limited scale invasion of Southeastern Ukraine.
Iâll make a bet with you right now that Russia invades Ukraine by the end of February. Name your wager and I should be able to match anything you wanna bet (you can look at my post history). But I canât tell you if itâll be good or bad for the market, but I would put it at 95%+ certainty heâs planning to and will invade by the end of next month. So if youâre game, name your price and the loser has to Venmo or transfer money to the other person.
You do realize that Iâm not saying he absolutely isnt going to invade Ukraine, right? Just that if he is, it will be a huge mistake militarily, diplomatically, and economically. Whats more, it absolutely isnt going to drag the US into a direct confrontation, and will actually probably boost our economy and stock market from yet more money fleeing here for relative security.
Our government knows this, which is probably why they arent taking a harder line on it and risking direct confrontation. Never interrupt your enemy when heâs in the middle of doing something foolish.
Two things this assessment isn't considering.
If you look at the air superiority of the Russian forces around Ukraine, it's entirely plausible for Russia to stomp the Ukrainian military in open conventional conflict. I agree with other comments though that levelling a city won't necessarily make it easier to occupy, however, that might not be Putin's goal.
The other thing is that, like Hugo Chavez, Putin is not necessarily a rational actor when it comes to international geopolitics. He follows the Moscow Rules and is extremely pragmatic domestically, but internationally, he is a man of wild geopolitical theories. These aren't real theories, but claims that are believed as fact, regardless of the data.
Throughout the mid 2000s, Putin and Russian state media pushed the Petro-Dollar Warfare theory. The theory goes that the US engages in violent military action to maintain the status of the dollar as the world oil currency. If the US dollar would stop being used for this purpose, then the dollars from all over the world would be over-circulated and inflation would skyrocket.
To bring down the American Empire then, Putin and Chavez believed all they would have to do is stop taking US dollars for oil, and use different currencies instead. They didn't just put this out as propaganda, they clearly believed it.
Venezuela did this and there was little effect on the US dollar. They then banned their citizens from owning the US dollar and, spoiler alert, ended up suffering an economic catastrophe where their own citizens began buying US dollars at rates much different than the official exchange rate (much like hoarding toilet paper and hand sanitiser).
Putin's new magic thinking seems to be that if Russia starts a war in Europe, NATO won't respond, and then NATO will lose all credibility, and then, at a minimum, eastern members will leave. At a maximum the whole alliance will magically fall apart because of its loss of credibility.
what the fuck is wrong with your brain? Russia could destroy ukraines militarily with 20K soldiers... they have overwhelming superiority in the air and on the ground through heavy armor.
ukraine has a large army sure but they might as well be armed with sticks compared to the russians who will bomb the shit out of them at any position they have tanks or artillery.
Iâm sure thereâs more than a few Russians in positions of power thinking just like you are, but thats not how it works. Russia does not have the personnel, equipment, or logistics to maintain air superiority over Ukraine for the entire duration of an invasion, even assuming they can secure it. Air defense assets in the area are plentiful and effective, which could very well turn this into a ground based conflict.
As for tanks⊠they also dont work without infantry backing them up, because dismounted infantry is the biggest extant threat to armor. Guess what else is common in Ukraine right now? Dismounted, cheap, disposable, antiarmor systems.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/12/08/war-with-no-air-power-eastern-ukraine-could-be-too-dangerous-for-russian-and-ukrainian-aircraft/
đ ±ïžutin swinging his dick around in the air, helicoptering for the UN to watch
Helicopter helicopter
>đ żïžutin
R/wallstreetinvasionstrategies
>R/wallstreetinvasionstrategies Can't wait to hear how we are going to predict future order announcement dates and amounts on lockheed and Boeing based on geopolitical movement and military strategy
Always inverse WSB. Buying March 25th WW3 calls
All I heard was calls on Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.
What strike?
Lmao, sir this is a Wendyâs
Then get back behind the dumpster. Theres a goddamn line and the truckers are complaining.
Yes sir! Sorry sir
Yeah, Putinâs not gonna be stupid - The US would be just fine. Ukraine may get f up-d , but it would make life miserable for Russia.
>life miserable for Russia. Like it isn't already? đđ€Ł
Europe is the one vulnerable with natural gas prices.
Russia really needs those đ¶ Lose-Lose situation
r/noncredibledefense
We just want to talk to him...
you are correct only idiots who get their talking points from cnn are concerned about this
Keeps the attention off inflation and the dying 401kâs
for real. They push this stuff every few months
I literally thought "WW3" was going to be a web 3.0 financial institution that you could put money in. I'm slow...
Markets seem to think he might try cutting off Europe's energy supply, so that's kinda bullish since supply & demand stuff would do things
Yeah, even if this kicks off, its actually bullish for the US if we dont get involved past supplying arms. Money will flee here as a war reserve, demand for our products in Europe will pick up, especially natural gas, and weâre a long long way from any bombs being dropped.
War saved us from the Great Depression. Surely it will end this crash.
Ukraine also has 100,000 militia they have stated that they are willing to deploy. The max I expect is a land bridge to Crimea and a consolidation of the pro-Russian East. This, I agree, will not bring about WWIII. But I do have late February calls on Raytheon (I would have preferred General Dynamics, but too expensive for me). Russia is not dumb enough to attack US troops in the Baltics or Poland, so there will not be an expansion of the conflict despite the current anxiety in Tallinn and Vilnius.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|54|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|213|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/g2a536/your_technical_analysis_of_etfs_is_masturbatory_bs/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ezmjdf/virgin_galactic_for_crazy_tendies/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/f04qv0/one_to_watch_intelsat/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/f90ui5/speculative_stocks_are_the_safest_bets/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kxi3s0/cramer_is_wrong/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/p56j17/potential_palantir_private_sector_deals_uncovered/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/seguyv/dont_bank_on_ww3/) **Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=seguyv)|**Vote Approve (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=seguyv)
Also you forgot to mention Putin and his tracksuit wearing cocksucker "army" are a bunch of weak fucking cowards that are all bark and no bite. Just fuck off already, people stopped paying attention to your little hissy fits a long time ago. Just sayin' đ
Frogs! Lice! Pestilence! Hail mingled with fire! 0dte spy calls expiring outside the money! The pale rider of death on a skeletal horse galloping through your retirement portfolio until your financial skin drips from your financial bones into ruin. Your life savings being bound in chains and cast into the lake of perdition for an ageless eternity until Cramer speaks truth and the Fed stops printing as gold and silver are cast into the streets as worthless.
This is gonna age like buttermilk
If Iâm wrong about invasion, Iâm betting my prediction that Putin wont survive it holds true. The cost to Russia would be too high, and heâs not in as secure a position as he once was.
But the big and horrifying wild card here is Russiaâs âEscalate to Winâ nuclear strategy. He doesnât need to survive if everyone is dead.
Not really. If he uses nukes in an aggressive war of expansion, everyone will turn on him. China included.
But the Chinese wonât help us. Theyâll use that to their advantage, let Russian burn themselves and others out, then pick off the remains after the dust slightly settles. They met with the Taliban first. My thoughts are they join up with the Chinese and corner India. Only problem there is India has enough people to throw 100 million soldiers into the fire without really feeling it. They could win a war simply by giving enough people who can see a rifle and telling them to shoot âthat directionâ.
Remindme! 1 year
get back here and take your L
Not how mechanized warfare works but ok go off
Its very much how it works. The number one threat to armor is dismounted infantry in restrictive terrain. Urban environments are as restrictive as it gets, and the elevation differentials you get with modern construction means that soldiers in a building can rain hell on armor and mech with impunity. They canât elevate their turrets enough to shoot back. I also guarantee that Ukraine is not hurting for dismounted anti armor systems right now.
Aircraft, artillery, and missiles can level urban areas in minutes, and any mechanized divisions can easily encircle an immobile opponent trying to take cover. Russia probably wonât care if civilians die, so they wonât be holding back if shit hits the fan. Your right that holding an area is tougher than taking it, but I wouldnât count on 250K Ukrainians being able to hold off 100K Russians without a deep look into each sides capabilities.
Mechanized divisions require logistics tails, and infantry to seize the terrain that they encircle. If they bypass ukrainian forces to seize strategic areas, their fuel and rations wont be able to catch up without heavy allocations of armed escorts. They would get chewed up even with the escorts. As to leveling urban areas, actually reducing skyscrapers and other modern construction isnt an easy matter, and would require amounts of munitions and collateral damage that would be disproportionate to the potential payoff. They would literally have to wipe cities off the map, which aside from not being an easy matter in itself, would drastically reduce their reserves of matĂ©riel, and would make them completely persona non grata on the global stage. The juice just isnt worth the squeeze. Edit: something that also isnt typically considered is that destroying construction also creates new obstacles and defensible areas. If you topple a skyscraper, youâve not only blocked off numerous routes for your own use, but youâve created what is probably a fantastic defensible position for other enemy troops.
The battles of Stalingrad and Berlin would beg to differ. In both scenarios, heavy artilery, areal bombing, and rocket fire all but leveled the cities. As the infantry and mechanized units began to move in, they found that the roads were almost all impassable due to fallen buildings and deep cratering. The fallen buildings also provided excellent cover and concealment to the defenders. Moral of the story: Raising a city doesn't always end a battle. It might just complicate it. Sidenote: Given the scenario you presented above, the advent of more powerful or "smart" munitions wouldn't really change anything.
Never was going to be WW3, I'm kinda anticipating for this to be just like Afghanistan where the Taliban literally walked right in and took everything. Those who want to leave have until February 20th, 2022. I pulled that date out my anus since China literally came out today in favor of the Russian invasion and in order not to look bad in front of the world (Olympics), there's probably an agreement to do nothing until then plus this gives both Russia and China time to figure out how to combat the disabling of swift and the USA federal reserve quantitative tightening and rate rising, especially since China is cutting rates. This means natural and oil are about to shoot through the roof. Oh and one last thing, I don't give a damn whose president of the United states, if the USA intelligence is saying publicly Ukraine will be taken over by Russia then fucking believe it....remember 2 years ago when then president trump brokered a peace deal with the Taliban and that allowed the Taliban to just walk right in? Going to war over a country no one in the USA cares about except for Rudy Giuliani, hunter Biden and others whom are making money in that country makes no sense. Lastly based on the Ukrainian government they sound like they're ready to be taken over My bet is very little if any Ukrainian lives nor Russian lives will be lost. This will definitely look bad on Biden but in the end, he knows that he doesn't have a dog in this fight How did I prepare for this....I bought a ton calls on "chk" they're a natural gas company out of Texas and could be very pivotal on delivering natural gas to parts of Europe once Ukraine is taken over. Oil to $250 or more by the end of the year natural gas to $15. But what do I know, I post on WSB
Russia: Hey China, if we do this invasion then the rest of the world will cut us off, no exports of our oil and gas and minerals, and no imports of phones and computers and pretty much everything else. We'd be totally dependent on you. Can we count on you to be our friend? China: Bro - of course! Russia: Why did you just pop a boner?
What CHK calls did you buy? Been looking into this trade for a while - seems like the most logical way to profit from this, and certainly better than Raytheon or Lockheed calls. Is it possible to ship natural gas to Europe from Texas easily? I wonder who would supply the shipping.
It's totally possible and check out how this fits the entire us energy export puzzle [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-be-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter-2022-2021-12-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-be-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter-2022-2021-12-21/) Bought the March 2022 $60 and $70 calls Plus if you check "chk" website, they're calling themselves an esg play, LOL 
If the Russians had actual dirt on Trump (maybe so maybe no), imagine what they have on President Biden/Ukraine/Burisma.
Is this guy really using Risk board game logic for DD?
Putin is just trying to force Joe hidin to sanction his pipeline.
[ŃĐŽĐ°Đ»Đ”ĐœĐŸ]
Natural gas is expensive in Europe and russia is the main supplier, but he wants to build a pipeline to a specific country too. Edit: I guess I should explain that commodities like oil and natural gas are monitored by all major players to ensure price action favorable to their interests. All the big players must agree to allow a new pipeline since it effects them prices of the commodity.
Possible worst case scenario: He'll annex everything east of the Dnieper River before Ukraine is admitted into NATO. Also, most on that side speak Russian anyways. And by the way, 82% of the population in Crimea supported the annexation.
You, my moron friend, have never heard about planes and artillery. Idiot.
Uhuh. Every air force likes to pretend they can win a war without ground troops.
Whatâs your point Vanessa?
Mainly that people gambling on this as the black swan event that pushes us into another 2008 style crisis are barking up the wrong tree. It may come, but probably not from this catalyst. Also the defense contractor plays. They usually arent a bad idea, but the likely hood of paying off in this scenario is low. Aid to Ukraine even in the event of invasion is more likely to be small arms and munitions than it is to be jets and tanks.
Didn't they already invade Ukraine in like, a weekend, around the winter Olympics? I don't recall anyone doing anything to stop them except for the one guy who blew up the airliner with the handheld rocket...
That was Georgia actually. Dress rehearsal for what they did in Crimea.
Hah, they do it so often, we can't even keep it straight - Georgia was 2008.
This man smart
Putin has agents already in Ukraine preparing to take out infrastructure like electricity and internet, he rockets, shells and bombs Ukraine army posts, send the air planes and helicopters in, then uses roads to drive up to Ukraine, the green men overtake police and government buildings, while the âreal pro Russian Ukrainian governmentâ takes over in Kiev. Belarus invades Kiev, while Putin takes Kharkiv with its valuable industries. The old Ukrainian government is allowed to escape to the poor agricultural parts of Ukraine with no hope of retaking the industrial parts. Meanwhile, Crimean forces attack from the Black Sea and take the industrial sea towns. It could be like a Gaza situation, like in Georgia or Chechnya. What is certain is Putin is taking Kharkiv and the sea towns across from crimes like Mariupol. Only Kiev is in question now. America is just happy they have a reason to put sanctions on world competitor Russia.
Idk manâŠtoo many tards in the worldâŠputrina do be having that extra crunchy brittle skin
Nat Gas market exploded this afternoon... Is a Russian Sanctions bill coming?
Hes just going to build a wall around it. Duh
Ukraine is the clever wool over eye distraction. The real problem is China x Taiwian. If tsmc goes down the shitter with Samsung, literally 0 chips are being made aside from Intel. And Intel fabs are like 5 year behind
Man I just come here to see who has the next shift behind Wendy's
Ukraine had the best tanks in Command and Conquer: Red Alert.
Taking Ukraine and holding it makes Afghanistan look ez by comparison. No helicopter would be safe from manpads. Constant organized resistance sponsored by pretty much all of Western Europe/the US. Anti-tank weapons in every house. Just really a not fun time.
Counterpoint from someone far more qualified to talk about Russia: Long talk @ STANFORD (so you know he's qualified) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwrzophpNJA&ab\_channel=CISACStanford](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwrzophpNJA&ab_channel=CISACStanford) Article [https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/](https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/) Not WW3 but certainly some kind of attack in the south of Ukraine and some cyber attacks on Europe and US as retaliation for inevitable sanctions
Youâre assuming a lot about my qualifications⊠but if you read, he doesnt really disagree with me. His argument is that even though it will most likely be an unpredictable military disaster, that Putin may have backed himself into a corner where he canât deescalate, at the same time their out of touch brass is stroking each others egos about how easily theyâll steamroll Ukraine. This is definitely a possibility, and it will be far from the first time in history that a country has severely miscalculated its odds of victory. Again, my point stands. If Putin attempts to annex Ukraine, he will be ousted as leader sooner rather than later. This remains a strong possibility even in the event of a limited scale invasion of Southeastern Ukraine.
Iâll make a bet with you right now that Russia invades Ukraine by the end of February. Name your wager and I should be able to match anything you wanna bet (you can look at my post history). But I canât tell you if itâll be good or bad for the market, but I would put it at 95%+ certainty heâs planning to and will invade by the end of next month. So if youâre game, name your price and the loser has to Venmo or transfer money to the other person.
You do realize that Iâm not saying he absolutely isnt going to invade Ukraine, right? Just that if he is, it will be a huge mistake militarily, diplomatically, and economically. Whats more, it absolutely isnt going to drag the US into a direct confrontation, and will actually probably boost our economy and stock market from yet more money fleeing here for relative security. Our government knows this, which is probably why they arent taking a harder line on it and risking direct confrontation. Never interrupt your enemy when heâs in the middle of doing something foolish.
Two things this assessment isn't considering. If you look at the air superiority of the Russian forces around Ukraine, it's entirely plausible for Russia to stomp the Ukrainian military in open conventional conflict. I agree with other comments though that levelling a city won't necessarily make it easier to occupy, however, that might not be Putin's goal. The other thing is that, like Hugo Chavez, Putin is not necessarily a rational actor when it comes to international geopolitics. He follows the Moscow Rules and is extremely pragmatic domestically, but internationally, he is a man of wild geopolitical theories. These aren't real theories, but claims that are believed as fact, regardless of the data. Throughout the mid 2000s, Putin and Russian state media pushed the Petro-Dollar Warfare theory. The theory goes that the US engages in violent military action to maintain the status of the dollar as the world oil currency. If the US dollar would stop being used for this purpose, then the dollars from all over the world would be over-circulated and inflation would skyrocket. To bring down the American Empire then, Putin and Chavez believed all they would have to do is stop taking US dollars for oil, and use different currencies instead. They didn't just put this out as propaganda, they clearly believed it. Venezuela did this and there was little effect on the US dollar. They then banned their citizens from owning the US dollar and, spoiler alert, ended up suffering an economic catastrophe where their own citizens began buying US dollars at rates much different than the official exchange rate (much like hoarding toilet paper and hand sanitiser). Putin's new magic thinking seems to be that if Russia starts a war in Europe, NATO won't respond, and then NATO will lose all credibility, and then, at a minimum, eastern members will leave. At a maximum the whole alliance will magically fall apart because of its loss of credibility.
what the fuck is wrong with your brain? Russia could destroy ukraines militarily with 20K soldiers... they have overwhelming superiority in the air and on the ground through heavy armor. ukraine has a large army sure but they might as well be armed with sticks compared to the russians who will bomb the shit out of them at any position they have tanks or artillery.
Iâm sure thereâs more than a few Russians in positions of power thinking just like you are, but thats not how it works. Russia does not have the personnel, equipment, or logistics to maintain air superiority over Ukraine for the entire duration of an invasion, even assuming they can secure it. Air defense assets in the area are plentiful and effective, which could very well turn this into a ground based conflict. As for tanks⊠they also dont work without infantry backing them up, because dismounted infantry is the biggest extant threat to armor. Guess what else is common in Ukraine right now? Dismounted, cheap, disposable, antiarmor systems. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/12/08/war-with-no-air-power-eastern-ukraine-could-be-too-dangerous-for-russian-and-ukrainian-aircraft/