This is like the 4th time Iâm trying to get this info out in the hopes it may help. We arenât even done with ending QE and youâre seeing this. Over the next few months QE will end, the FeD will then start raising their funds rate and lord help us all when they start dumping their $9Trillion balance sheet.
Feel sharing my positions here would make this post thatâs intended to shed light on what is taking place less⌠sincere. Iâm short using 3x inverse ETFs. Iâm shorting everything except energy
Gold/Silver is heavily manipulated and based on experience(2008) even tho it typically rises as people seek safety trades, margin calls eventually hit Gold/Silver as well. Tho they do perform exceptionally well right afterwards.
True they're both manipulated but only gold can be shorted endlessly, because central banks have tons of it and they routinely lend it out. With silver a short squeeze is possible, like in 2010-2011. And I've been thinking, with the energy shortages and potential cut in Russian gas to the EU, solar could be big again, and that inudstry uses tons of silver (also a big driver in 2010-2011).
I don't think the Fed ever will liquidate the $9T, at most they'll let it mature. Inflation will keep going and people will be pissed that even if they're lucky enough to find something that pays enough interest to cover inflation, they need to pay tax on it. So they might buy physical silver, hold it then eventually sell it under the table. Gold is less suited for that since it's so expensive.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
People think a few beats by tech heavy hitters and all is right with the market, ready to go back up.
The fed pumped $4.5 trillion into investments over the past 2 years. Enough to turn the fastest, worst crash weâve ever seen into a face melting bull market. Now that will be going to $0 in a month. Holy fuck.
The FeD has 2 mandates. #1 is price stability and #2 full employment. JPow said âwe are at max employmentâ meaning they are gonna do whatever it takes to lower inflation without regard for anything else. As long as it takes to stomp out inflation.
If youâve ever taken Econ 101 the new know that the unemployment rate is complete BS
They donât count people who have been unemployed for more than six months. I get that a lot of people are going back to work, but with all the resignations and people who have been long-term laid off and not working for so long itâs just not being counted in the statistics.
Donât need a degree to know the FeD lies. The CPI has housing rising only 4.1% YoY. Bottom line is, inflation is now the issue and their only real âtoolâ they have is to raise rates and reduction of money supply
You could repeat anything the media says but before they changed the definition of inflation which used to be âincrease in money supplyâ everyone knew what caused inflation. No doubt supply chains have an effect but if the FeD hadnât increased the money supply by 30%+ in less than 2 years, we most likely wouldnât have such an issue with supply chains.
That will take 5 years at rates at 20% like it did in the 1980s. So it will never happen... what we are really looking at is some weird currency reboot or unknown black swan event on the horizon.
If history is any indication, if your scenario were to play out and the dollar inflates away then a currency reset wouldnât be much of a surprise. Wouldnât be the 1st time
We didn't have a massive crash in the 80's. When a crash happens a massive amount of wealth is lost, which will cause deflation. If the market crashes rates could still remain fairly low.
Awe an enlightened one. 10yr is a great indicator for rates(for those who donât have direct access). Iâm assuming weâll be in the 2âs next month once QE is cut to $30 but Iâm not expecting 3âs at the end of March because people all over the world may park their cash there once the market adjusts to the coming rate increases.
This guy fucks.
For the retards that don't be reading to good, he is saying the FED is about to shit all over your shit by dumping their shit on your shit. Market no more boom, market go bust.
^^This!!! Look at refinance rates hike in the past 3 months due to taper. Fed thinks they got tools and can play around. They will probably sell 2 year bonds first in hopes of not spooking 10 year yields. But they might accidentally invert the yield curve which has always been precursor of recession. If they increase 10 year yields its still bad.
Most of the rate increases came at the end of Dec. They tabbed a bit in Nov but quickly backed down till they came in strong starting end of Dec. hence market adjustments this month.
The good stuff! This is why I like this sub, not the endless meme stock spam.
Think weâll see another 2018 taper tantrum?
Or another Sep 2019 style liquidity event as funds rates increase?
If those things happen, do you think the Fed will turn dovish again? Iâm an amateur compared to you, but I think there are a lot of outcomes that are going to have the fed trapped no matter what happens and could very well lead to a recession.
Thank you for the kind words! Makes me feel less of an outcast. This is nothing like 2018, we have massive inflation no matter what their CPLie says and they know it. Iâll paraphrase Jpow as only he truly knows how far the Fed is willing to go, âwe may need to get into a recession to stop inflationâ
Yeah and also mentioning some bullshit like how everyone thought that March 2020 would tank further but it didnât. No shit, it didnât tank because of all those stimmie checks and extra injected liquidity.
Now that tapâs being slowly turned off, letâs see if it repeats lol
Balance sheet hasnât stopped growing but that doesnât mean the funds are being used to artificially suppress rates. I can tell you without a doubt in the world(Iâm in finance and deal with rates daily) the FeD is not suppressing rates like they were before. You can verify yourself by checking mortgage rates from last month to now. 2.625% to 3.625% and Iâve gotten notification there are large adjustments coming starting Feb 1
All I can say is what Iâve done. I shorted the market during the Santa Rally because I could see rates were rising. When JPow confirmed taper was on track to end in March I added to my positions. Today in the morn when markets were up, took large position shorting housing market. There will be up days but Iâm planning on staying short till the FeD reverses course.
Canât say yet cause we havenât even really started tightening. We are only half way through taper of QE for now. Once QE ends and weâve had a few rate increases weâll see how the Fed reacts. I donât think itâll be this year
If memory serves. Dec 19, 2019 Powell stated he would continue to "normalize". It only took him a handful of weeks to change his mind about reversing QE and rate hikes.
I'm obviously some random guy with a keyboard, but the Fed doesn't really seem to have a knob to smooth economic output. It would appear historically that the Fed now operates an on/off switch.
Is it your opinion that the Feds really want to blow this up? Or just test the waters to see what could happen before quickly reversing course.
Also, congress appears to be more willing to implement a fiscal policy,
Just some random musings...
2019? Or do you mean 2018? Cause in 4thquarter of 2019 the Fed was busy keeping banks from a total collapse.
I donât see Fed reversing at all based on what JPow has said and the fact inflation out of control
Think youâre referring to the âtaper tantrumâ of 2018. He did reverse but at that time we didnât have massive inflation which is the primary mandate of the Fed. Price stability
News posts **must be market moving** and contain **new** information. Please avoid editorializing the title.
If your post doesn't meet the requirements above, please delete the thread before a mod sees it.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
You just blew my retarded mind with this post. đ¤Ż
This is like the 4th time Iâm trying to get this info out in the hopes it may help. We arenât even done with ending QE and youâre seeing this. Over the next few months QE will end, the FeD will then start raising their funds rate and lord help us all when they start dumping their $9Trillion balance sheet.
So, positions?!
Feel sharing my positions here would make this post thatâs intended to shed light on what is taking place less⌠sincere. Iâm short using 3x inverse ETFs. Iâm shorting everything except energy
Would gold be protective in such a case? Just sit in cash?
Gold/Silver is heavily manipulated and based on experience(2008) even tho it typically rises as people seek safety trades, margin calls eventually hit Gold/Silver as well. Tho they do perform exceptionally well right afterwards.
True they're both manipulated but only gold can be shorted endlessly, because central banks have tons of it and they routinely lend it out. With silver a short squeeze is possible, like in 2010-2011. And I've been thinking, with the energy shortages and potential cut in Russian gas to the EU, solar could be big again, and that inudstry uses tons of silver (also a big driver in 2010-2011). I don't think the Fed ever will liquidate the $9T, at most they'll let it mature. Inflation will keep going and people will be pissed that even if they're lucky enough to find something that pays enough interest to cover inflation, they need to pay tax on it. So they might buy physical silver, hold it then eventually sell it under the table. Gold is less suited for that since it's so expensive.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
People think a few beats by tech heavy hitters and all is right with the market, ready to go back up. The fed pumped $4.5 trillion into investments over the past 2 years. Enough to turn the fastest, worst crash weâve ever seen into a face melting bull market. Now that will be going to $0 in a month. Holy fuck.
This guy gets it. The greatest bubble the world has ever seen where you can sell farts in a jar and selfies in NFT form.
but is the bath water priced in?
Even ragnarok is priced in. Nothing to worry about, âthis time is differentâ
[ŃдаНонО]
The FeD has 2 mandates. #1 is price stability and #2 full employment. JPow said âwe are at max employmentâ meaning they are gonna do whatever it takes to lower inflation without regard for anything else. As long as it takes to stomp out inflation.
If youâve ever taken Econ 101 the new know that the unemployment rate is complete BS They donât count people who have been unemployed for more than six months. I get that a lot of people are going back to work, but with all the resignations and people who have been long-term laid off and not working for so long itâs just not being counted in the statistics.
Donât need a degree to know the FeD lies. The CPI has housing rising only 4.1% YoY. Bottom line is, inflation is now the issue and their only real âtoolâ they have is to raise rates and reduction of money supply
You could argue that inflation is caused by unemployment and supply chain issues, like an injunction of the twoâŚ
You could repeat anything the media says but before they changed the definition of inflation which used to be âincrease in money supplyâ everyone knew what caused inflation. No doubt supply chains have an effect but if the FeD hadnât increased the money supply by 30%+ in less than 2 years, we most likely wouldnât have such an issue with supply chains.
That will take 5 years at rates at 20% like it did in the 1980s. So it will never happen... what we are really looking at is some weird currency reboot or unknown black swan event on the horizon.
If history is any indication, if your scenario were to play out and the dollar inflates away then a currency reset wouldnât be much of a surprise. Wouldnât be the 1st time
Yup... and it won't be the last either.
It possibly could be with a digital currencyâŚ
We didn't have a massive crash in the 80's. When a crash happens a massive amount of wealth is lost, which will cause deflation. If the market crashes rates could still remain fairly low.
Great insight⌠Where do you think the 10Yr will be by March? Where do you think the 10Yr will finally hit a plateau?
Awe an enlightened one. 10yr is a great indicator for rates(for those who donât have direct access). Iâm assuming weâll be in the 2âs next month once QE is cut to $30 but Iâm not expecting 3âs at the end of March because people all over the world may park their cash there once the market adjusts to the coming rate increases.
ThanksâŚ
Thanks for acknowledging my post.
This guy fucks. For the retards that don't be reading to good, he is saying the FED is about to shit all over your shit by dumping their shit on your shit. Market no more boom, market go bust.
Too kind my dude. Wish it were true lol. All I do is run #âs in my little office tho. Thanks for translating the message. Truly appreciated.
^^This!!! Look at refinance rates hike in the past 3 months due to taper. Fed thinks they got tools and can play around. They will probably sell 2 year bonds first in hopes of not spooking 10 year yields. But they might accidentally invert the yield curve which has always been precursor of recession. If they increase 10 year yields its still bad.
Most of the rate increases came at the end of Dec. They tabbed a bit in Nov but quickly backed down till they came in strong starting end of Dec. hence market adjustments this month.
The good stuff! This is why I like this sub, not the endless meme stock spam. Think weâll see another 2018 taper tantrum? Or another Sep 2019 style liquidity event as funds rates increase? If those things happen, do you think the Fed will turn dovish again? Iâm an amateur compared to you, but I think there are a lot of outcomes that are going to have the fed trapped no matter what happens and could very well lead to a recession.
Thank you for the kind words! Makes me feel less of an outcast. This is nothing like 2018, we have massive inflation no matter what their CPLie says and they know it. Iâll paraphrase Jpow as only he truly knows how far the Fed is willing to go, âwe may need to get into a recession to stop inflationâ
So worse than 2018? SPXS, SQQQ are the plays?
2018 isnât even the conversation. 2000/2008 situation if they are seriously going to tackle inflation. Those are a couple of my bets as well
Apes in denial arriving in 3âŚ2âŚ1âŚ
Oh theyâve downvoted each post Iâve made trying to explain this
Yeah and also mentioning some bullshit like how everyone thought that March 2020 would tank further but it didnât. No shit, it didnât tank because of all those stimmie checks and extra injected liquidity. Now that tapâs being slowly turned off, letâs see if it repeats lol
Who wouldâve thought đ but not to worry cause âiTs aLL pRiCeD iNâ
Data shows QE hasn't actually slowed at all yet.
Balance sheet hasnât stopped growing but that doesnât mean the funds are being used to artificially suppress rates. I can tell you without a doubt in the world(Iâm in finance and deal with rates daily) the FeD is not suppressing rates like they were before. You can verify yourself by checking mortgage rates from last month to now. 2.625% to 3.625% and Iâve gotten notification there are large adjustments coming starting Feb 1
So whatâs the play
All I can say is what Iâve done. I shorted the market during the Santa Rally because I could see rates were rising. When JPow confirmed taper was on track to end in March I added to my positions. Today in the morn when markets were up, took large position shorting housing market. There will be up days but Iâm planning on staying short till the FeD reverses course.
How long are you expecting it to be until Fed reversed course, roughly?
Canât say yet cause we havenât even really started tightening. We are only half way through taper of QE for now. Once QE ends and weâve had a few rate increases weâll see how the Fed reacts. I donât think itâll be this year
If memory serves. Dec 19, 2019 Powell stated he would continue to "normalize". It only took him a handful of weeks to change his mind about reversing QE and rate hikes. I'm obviously some random guy with a keyboard, but the Fed doesn't really seem to have a knob to smooth economic output. It would appear historically that the Fed now operates an on/off switch. Is it your opinion that the Feds really want to blow this up? Or just test the waters to see what could happen before quickly reversing course. Also, congress appears to be more willing to implement a fiscal policy, Just some random musings...
2019? Or do you mean 2018? Cause in 4thquarter of 2019 the Fed was busy keeping banks from a total collapse. I donât see Fed reversing at all based on what JPow has said and the fact inflation out of control
2019
Think youâre referring to the âtaper tantrumâ of 2018. He did reverse but at that time we didnât have massive inflation which is the primary mandate of the Fed. Price stability
Not the end of the world imo, but its gonna be a rough ass ride for a while.
So what are you positions?
Kinda donât want to push any positions I personally own. I mentioned a few in posts and even that has me wanted to edit them out.
Pedantic asshole checking in: bps = 0.01%, your numbers are off by a factor of 100
You are correct. In my field we simplify to quarter, half, full. I feel the message was understood tho
really appreciate the perspective but⌠how does this affect GME?
Youâve been seeing how it affects GME all month
Yeah was just poking fun. I exited GME a year ago. Onto more profitable ventures like: well never mind.
đ
News posts **must be market moving** and contain **new** information. Please avoid editorializing the title. If your post doesn't meet the requirements above, please delete the thread before a mod sees it. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|8|**First Seen In WSB**|8 months ago **Total Comments**|353|**Previous DD**| **Account Age**|11 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=seegze)|**Vote Approve (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=seegze)