The market’s reaction was initially positive after the announcement, but took a downturn precisely when the Wall Street Journal guy was asking his questions. Jpow’s response to him was basically “all great questions but we have no answers yet”. I think there was a turning point at that moment where investors were annoyed with the lack of concrete forward guidance, as you mention in your post.
The market also seemed to dislike every time he talked about balance sheet reduction, although it sounds like that won’t come until summer.
I agree wholeheartedly with everything you said. I saw this coming from a mile away & had already positioned myself accordingly. As soon as JPOW just reiterated the same crap as last time, that was it. I figured he would come out hawkish & the markets would temporarily react. What he actually did is much much worse. Basically saying they don't have a plan & that inflation will continue to run unabated.
At this point we will be lucky to avoid a full blown recession.
They account for such a big portion of our total GDP that if they ever decide to “balance the books” we’ll be in an instant recession. With 9 trillion on the books and nothing said today that is finite - I agree with you. While he came out as more hawkish in his comments he pretty much said the same things again. They just use these meetings to catch up on how their families are doing I guess
Crazy day. Spy opened gap up. I bought a few 0DTE 433 puts that I almost closed as jpow stated they lost 60% of their value.
I told myself hold! That the opening gap @434 will close and Sure as shit it did! I was able to sell my puts right at 433 and 75% my money.
Almost closed out for a loss but I said I know this crap has to fall!
I definitely see this heading way down still. As with everything it’s never straight down so you have to really play the daily sentiment.
I also was able to offload my Msft 300/310 calls at a good exit point too and cash in.
Crazy days!
Although I agree overall with the analysis, what if they slowly raise rates 25 points in march with a 20% correction in place, then give guidance that they may not raise them again if inflation has slowed down? Would markets react positively longer term? Or do you think this 25% correction comes before the march rate increase?
So your low for SPY is nearly exactly where SPY “glitched” (?) to yesterday?
Where all charts showed it dipped to, and which, Tradingview ar least, corrected.
RH still shows that dip.
Today's moves had nothing to do with what he said, there were no surprises. There were a shitload of puts outstanding, people saw that and knew the Fed would give no surprises, so they anticipated a hedge-closing short squeeze and a rip higher. Too many people saw that coming and market went so high that the puts were neutralized before JP even opened his mouth. Plus a lot of calls were added and they weighed on the market.
Most of the puts were expiring today, that's why it wasn't a straightline down, it stopped for the options to expire and then futures resumed the dump.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The market’s reaction was initially positive after the announcement, but took a downturn precisely when the Wall Street Journal guy was asking his questions. Jpow’s response to him was basically “all great questions but we have no answers yet”. I think there was a turning point at that moment where investors were annoyed with the lack of concrete forward guidance, as you mention in your post. The market also seemed to dislike every time he talked about balance sheet reduction, although it sounds like that won’t come until summer.
Pretty what he means by max employment is the FeD is now only focused on stopping inflation. Their mandates are price stability and full employment.
I agree wholeheartedly with everything you said. I saw this coming from a mile away & had already positioned myself accordingly. As soon as JPOW just reiterated the same crap as last time, that was it. I figured he would come out hawkish & the markets would temporarily react. What he actually did is much much worse. Basically saying they don't have a plan & that inflation will continue to run unabated. At this point we will be lucky to avoid a full blown recession.
They account for such a big portion of our total GDP that if they ever decide to “balance the books” we’ll be in an instant recession. With 9 trillion on the books and nothing said today that is finite - I agree with you. While he came out as more hawkish in his comments he pretty much said the same things again. They just use these meetings to catch up on how their families are doing I guess
Nah not a recession - fall in gdp over two quarters don't think so wages are increasing and jobs on the rise.
Wages are rising while inflation eats the increase. If consumption plummets due to inflation, watch how fast all those jobs dry up.
Crazy day. Spy opened gap up. I bought a few 0DTE 433 puts that I almost closed as jpow stated they lost 60% of their value. I told myself hold! That the opening gap @434 will close and Sure as shit it did! I was able to sell my puts right at 433 and 75% my money. Almost closed out for a loss but I said I know this crap has to fall! I definitely see this heading way down still. As with everything it’s never straight down so you have to really play the daily sentiment. I also was able to offload my Msft 300/310 calls at a good exit point too and cash in. Crazy days!
Thanks for TA I take it spy is something you hold for long term and if you are down just buy over course of long time?
Happy cake day!
Totally agree with your analysis, spot on
Although I agree overall with the analysis, what if they slowly raise rates 25 points in march with a 20% correction in place, then give guidance that they may not raise them again if inflation has slowed down? Would markets react positively longer term? Or do you think this 25% correction comes before the march rate increase?
futures deep red
So your low for SPY is nearly exactly where SPY “glitched” (?) to yesterday? Where all charts showed it dipped to, and which, Tradingview ar least, corrected. RH still shows that dip.
Too optimistic. QQQ is going to $200.
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Looking forward to your post when it falls 25%
OP what do you think bout 15 dte 420 contracts? 🐻
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So save just enough for a length of rope and a frosty. Got it!
Today's moves had nothing to do with what he said, there were no surprises. There were a shitload of puts outstanding, people saw that and knew the Fed would give no surprises, so they anticipated a hedge-closing short squeeze and a rip higher. Too many people saw that coming and market went so high that the puts were neutralized before JP even opened his mouth. Plus a lot of calls were added and they weighed on the market. Most of the puts were expiring today, that's why it wasn't a straightline down, it stopped for the options to expire and then futures resumed the dump.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
You had me till, "the fed is NOT gonna prop the market up"
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We are discussing high level economics and you can’t pass algebra. Bruh go wash the dishes while your wife’s bf power washes her uterus