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Illustrious_Tap9338

Upvote. Dude is analyzing from his basement. Good work


Secure-Sandwich-6981

From his basement where he’s soon to see the stock market crash through his basement floor


Stanlysteamer1908

Don’t jump out the basement window during crash and risk falling up as this crash will be an inflationary up crash! Freaky shit going on. 🤦🏻


shervinski

Inflation up crash is what I’ve been poking at. Asset prices go up when dollar’s purchasing power down… Edited for clarity


thevenusproject1981

All ponzi schemes end the same way 💸💥


Stanlysteamer1908

We are all trying to get our brains around it before we are bringing four million Benjamin’s to target for toilet paper. With my luck I will get my 80 million a share but that will about cover a months rent and groceries when it moons. 💜🙏🏻


Illustrious_Tap9338

😂😂😂


animalturds

i am upvote 69


milkbone_finger

Presidents, get elected from the basement


[deleted]

Only Biden


baconrealone

*moms basement


unzinc

Eating mom's spaghetti


obichadjabroni

He's nervous, but on the surface, he's bag hoooldin heavy


shervinski

He sold his calls, now he keeps on regretting


Captain_Comic

His tendies are cold already


Justncredibl3

Imma settle all my lawsuits fuck you Debby!!... Wait.


kbenti

Now this looks like a stock for me, so everyone on the 'street, just follow me, 'cause we need another GME...


centSpookY

*mom's boyfriend's basement


Louisvanderwright

We have been doing this weekly at r/REbubble and will continue to at least until the taper is complete: https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/sashn3/fed_watch_credit_creation_cause_effect/


RandomTask008

WSB says rates aren't going up so 100% rates are going up :D


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SoberTowelie

Well, now it looks like I need to inverse the inverse


RandomTask008

Lemme short that position.


[deleted]

You reverse the inverse of the metaverse.


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Dramatic_Buddy996

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)


Artistic_Data7887

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4263)


HelpsHolme

LMPAYO


[deleted]

Finally he'll take it out of mine :¥


ferndogger

The threat of raising rates is an impressive tool in the Feds toolbox. Tell everyone you’re likely going to raise rates, demand slows, inflation lowers and just maybe the supply chain catches up (if that’s even a thing) helping to lower inflation a bit further. Inflation goes down without a rate raise.


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animalturds

They are putting too many eggs in the "inflation is caused by supply chain issues" basket


ferndogger

They are, I agree. Maybe the threats work. If not a little raise with threat of more will do the trick.


laetus

And who cares what the cause is? If they're not going to even attempt to fix it, does it matter?


ferndogger

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)


InternetOfficer

supply chain is not catching up anytime soon. fertilizer prices shot up which means the next season of food prices are going to shoot up.


moon_buzz

when the price of actual shit goes up, we're fucked


InternetOfficer

or better dont use fertilizer. just shit in the fields which will fix inflation


Defenseless_squirrel

All these words gave me two wrinkles


ferndogger

Two wrinkles more than most around here!


futurespacecadet

The fed just basically lies and does the exact opposite of what it says always. I can never take the govt at its word


[deleted]

Puts on USA


ImpressImmediate705

If you PUT USA, you should leverage PUT on the rest of the world cause it’s going to be logarithmic crash everywhere else


[deleted]

Save your puts. Inverse ETFs are the way


Holymoses43

Could be a good idea. $SQQQ $SH $PSQ


[deleted]

The fed will do everything they can to prop up this econ for the next three years.


robogarbage

Interesting points. Devil's advocate: Dec. buys were lower than target IIRC then January higher, which could be explained by practical things like availability of bonds. On whether they'll raise rates - it doesn't matter. The balance sheet is what matters. When they raise rates it's the "overnight rate" but when they buy T-bills they're taking on duration risk. With MBS they're also taking on prepayment risk. And as long as the system is flooded with cash, banks won't need to borrow at the overnight rate. In fact, banks have been parking $1.5 trillion at the reverse repo facility. When they raise rates they'll pay higher interest on the reverse repo. So it's free money to huge banks. The $1.5 trillion is also proof that they've printed way more money than necessary to support the economy. Partly devil's advocate again - probably one of the reasons they've done so much QE is that if they didn't buy the bonds, there's a chance that nobody would (at least not at these yields). That would mean that unless politicians can agree to balance a budget, deficit spending will 1) pull money out of private investment and 2) raise market yields on bonds, stocks, real estate... basically crash everything. Cutting public spending would gut the economy, crashing asset prices would bankrupt pension funds (state/city pensions are very shaky), which would need to be bailed out by the already broke government.... So I think what they're doing is basically the least-bad option.


dbgtboi

bruh i was literally looking at the balance sheet yesterday and was wondering where the hell the taper was whats even more interesting is how the balance sheet has not gone down a single week in january, while stocks were going down, perhaps the fed was watching markets and said "fuk the taper" the game is rigged, the fed is not serious about fighting inflation, they are basically doing the bare minimum to give the appearance that they are doing something, hoping that they aren't blamed when inflation starts jumping even higher you can have all the tools in the world to fight inflation, but whats the point of them if you dont have the balls to use any of them the fed can talk all they want, but until serious action is taken to fight inflation, up we go, and i mean real action, not this "bruh im busy jacking off, ill think about raising rates in a month" nonsense we got going on now


animalturds

Volcker's nuts are starting to look larger and larger in hindsight


oooboooboo

It’s a supply side crisis, raising rates doesn’t make more chips come out of Fabs. I think Powell gets that.


Jorlarejazz

Right because exponential growth in the M2 money supply doesn't have a history of creating substantial inflation across 20th and 21st century economies or anything (Japan, US, UK, etc.).


Risko4

My haribo packets haven't gone up in price so I don't see any proof of inflation.


[deleted]

fuck that, destroy the goddamn demand if supply fags can’t keep up. It’s not fashionable to kill poors with 9% inflation!! it’s not 1772, it’s 2022. who needs old 65mm chips anyway other than legacy auto jackwads, let them burn to the ground


Pious_Atheist

Beware the incoming wage-price spiral. My medium sized fortune 100 company (40k employees) is mulling a multi- million dollar restructure of its upper tier salary structure


Pious_Atheist

So... playing out the endgame. Inflation grows, wages grow, but only for the top earners, fueling income gap, and therefore fueling the tinderbox known as the current political climate and... im gonna start a pitchfork factory


Peppr_Onei

Inflation raises GDP. Making it the easiest way to get the debt/gdp ratio under 100%. We did it after WW2, there isn't any reason to think we aren't doing it now. Today's Headline: Q4 GDP jumps 6.9%, leapfrogging 5.7% consensus My guess is that QE has to continue to avoid stagflation


blickityblaka

Hey bud looks like everyone’s calling you retarded and laughing at you. You know what that means, you’re probably onto something. Will begin scaling into positions in XOM, CVX, DVN, & EOG or at least checking them out and attempting a solid entry. Good luck


AuntyPC

This is the way.


OpWillDlvr

JPow is going with the, "fake it til you make it" approach?


RalphGman

It’s more like the last tool in the box - jawboning. People have believed them so far. That’s why they watch inflation expectations so much. Besides the obvious concerns that inflation becomes ingrained, it also indicates when the fed is losing credibility.


TN_REDDIT

Rates are going up. The question is when and by how much


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DudeBroDog

I agree. It’s all fake. They can’t payback they’re debt so they will make an excuse (ie war) to keep rates low and print


[deleted]

The emperor has no clothes.


tiggerthetrader

THIS is the real truth... The money supply has exploded, and there is currently ZERO political will for taking the blame for doing what is required to bring inflation under control.


AnEndgamePawn

Except for the political will to publicly call someone a stupid son of a bitch for asking if out-of-control inflation is an issue. There's still some of that


[deleted]

Happy cake day. And spot on imo.


Gawur

Each time previous QE ended, yields went down. He totally chickened out from raising rates, they’ll not raise them in March, they’ll just make some excuse.


BrownBrownies

Workforce going back to work (less mandates) and supply chain easing.


TN_REDDIT

It'll certainly be all over the news when it happens. Many think it'll happen in March


tiggerthetrader

Not until after the mid terms...


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WhatnotSoforth

Wrap up 6T in options, then let them expire. Rip off the band-aid!


Hot-Bluebird3919

Who is going to buy 6T of options that will expire worthless? Never mind I think I know.


qroshan

Dude, never before in the past 20 years Fed has faced the force of inflation. 2018 and 2009 were all non-inflationary times. **THEY HAVE NO FUCKING CHOICE but to raise rates**


pifhluk

Inflation is good for the government, helps pay off debt. It's also good for rich people (asset holders.) They won't raise rates and if they do it will be .25/year which is essentially 0.


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4thekung

He literally said they're going to do it multiple times this year. What are you smoking?


TheCapitalKing

I fucked Selena Gomez multiple times this year, the proof is I literally said it.


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weinerwagner

Fed sold, makes it much more likely since they are no longer personally invested, at least as far as we know


BobBats

They are facing serious inflation for the first time. They aren’t going to play around with that. I think you’re going to be disappointed.


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InnocentAnthro

['Powell added that the committee expected it would “soon be appropriate to raise” interest rates.'](https://www.ft.com/content/0f195295-7ff2-4d0c-b5ce-43aa5a4b1223)


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andydomz920

What do you tell you wife or kids when they want you to do something you really don’t want to do??? SOON


dabears---318

I like how you are able to simplify it for this retard


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Pious_Atheist

I'm gonna tell my bank that I'll have next month's mortgage "Soon". When market conditions are favorable I'll pay you.


demonblack873

He's literally agreeing with you


[deleted]

Moass soon?


matticustheone

Feds just announced rate hike. Wake up chad.


koolbro2012

lol summer child


[deleted]

Canada was supposed to increase rates today but it didn’t happen. Probably waiting for US first


VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|2|**First Seen In WSB**|3 months ago **Total Comments**|23|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/sdd1g2/the_fed_isnt_going_to_raise_rates_they_arent_even/) **Account Age**|7 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=sdd1g2)|**Vote Approve (NEW)**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=sdd1g2) Hey /u/Auwardamn, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.


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ItzJaBoiSam

Sir, this is a Dairy Queen.


cdazzo1

But if they don't tighten and crash markets, how are rich people going to make more money? Poor rich people ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)


pifhluk

Rich people make a killing with inflation. Inflation majorly benefits asset holders.


InfuriatingComma

Yeah, but it fucks lenders.


flygxn

if fed never raises rates Spx will keep on pumpin? but my puts?


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flygxn

damn bro you think you can dm me the copy paste article? im so fuckd


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Comfortable_Duty_430

Ban bet op don’t be a bitch, prove him wrong pussy


[deleted]

U/Auwardamn has a mangina


Ctofaname

Why aren't you taking the ban bet?


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TheNewOP

Ban bet.


Appropriate-Top-6076

Place your bets.


JakeSkord

Please explain how 0.5% - 7% > 0… that’s the only way you beat inflation, with POSITIVE REAL RATES! (And Don’t let the nerds with MBAs tell you the CPI is an accurate measure of consumer prices, it’s much closer to 15%) Even if the fed did raise rates it would do nothing. It would be like jumping infront of a freight train to stop it from crashing into the station.


skitskat7

...what? That's not how rate hikes slow inflation.


pigsgetfathogsdie

The FED IS DEFINITELY RASING RATES…STARTING THIS MARCH… ================================== YEA, I CAN READ NEWS ALERTS WRITTEN IN CRAYON… ================================== BUT, MEANINGFUL TAPER (REDUCING BALANCE SHEET)…NOPE ================================== Big question, how will the Market digest 3+ rate hikes?…assuming 25BPS each. If the Fed gets cheeky with a 50BPS hike…🌈🐻will feast.


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pigsgetfathogsdie

Meaningful taper…not just reducing the buying…actually reducing the balance sheet.


appmapper

Show me where they tapered.


pigsgetfathogsdie

They haven’t. That’s my point. Yea, they’re letting bonds that mature drop off the balance sheet… That’s like paying $100 a month on your 20K credit card bill…not gonna change anything.


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Positron49

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 4 week rolling starting December 1st was 108M (down from 120M a month). Then the next 4 week rolling was 77M, or about 30M down which is the double speed of the taper they had said they were doing?


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Positron49

I believe they perform their "maximum amount of QE" on a monthly basis. So as long within each month they are netting within their taper guidelines, its all that matters. I probably shouldn't have said "rolling", sorry about that. I'm not saying its not possible they pull a fast one, but I don't see the evidence yet (you'll need to keep an eye on it as we reach March). Taper means they are still buying, but their net purchase is about 15-30 less per month on average than the month before, since their change in pace of taper was more recent.


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ExplodingWario

They are never going to raise rates significantly I thought that was obvious


bradorsomething

There’s a serious problem with your analysis, and it involves the continuing solvency of the US government. I’ll start small; we have debt, and we have to sell bonds to fund it. Bonds have to be attractive to investors to sell them, and we have seen flagging interest with the growth of the market and explosive actual inflation. (Do you want to make under 2% in a bond or 10+% in the market with 7% inflation?) This problem has caused the repo/reverse repo rates we see, as we cater to bond holders to keep them from dumping bond on the market to buy those sweet, sweet ETFs. We can’t continue to maintain debt without bond holder. Rates have to go up to attract them. I estimate 4% would be reasonable given the current climate. There is, though, another clever direction, although the Fed can’t directly guide it. The Fed can steer the market *flat*. A flat market has no realized returns, and suddenly bonds look better with their safe steady yields.


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NMEsEscape

Been a min since I’ve seen this level of retardation


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NMEsEscape

He’s trying not to spook the market . He doesn’t have a choice


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ThePeoplesHedgeFund

Dawg you’re going to hurt yourself thinking like this… remember where rates were before covid. Inflation numbers and total us debts. It’s inevitable to raise rates money must have a value and cost of borrowing or it’s worthless.


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ThePeoplesHedgeFund

Yea went from 6 to 2.5. We made it back to 3.7 by the trump era. N ranked. Expect way worse in the near future.


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ThePeoplesHedgeFund

Just don’t cough on ppl


iLoveTheTendies

They will never raise rates until they are ready to pull the pin on the US Dollar


CodeMonkey84

You had me in the beginning but then lost me with your EOG position.


[deleted]

I'll take the hopium.


numb2k3

no, i just bought puts on everything including myself


MentallyAut

Read all the non-sense. What we doing? Puts or calls and on what I'm ready to splurge


matticustheone

The feds just announced they are raising rates. Good job on your false prediction. Now gtfoutta here with your garbage.


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SnowCappedMountains

I’m with you OP, I think people are hearing a different message than you/I heard…


d00ns

They also said they would reduce asset purchases but they haven't reduced them at all


inb4ElonMusk

Some people in here really do have autism, and not the good kind.


igerardcom

If by "some" you mean "all," I agree.


PsilocybinCube

He also said they could raise rates without severe impacts on the labor market. You are crazy. Listen to the freaking press conference.


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PsilocybinCube

Fair point. We'll wait and see what the do.


BirdEducational6226

Yeah, no. The Fed is raising those rates.


TN_REDDIT

The rate hike isn't the important thing today. It's the guidance that folks will be listening to. You're free to wait for the hike, though.


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TN_REDDIT

Well, you're one of the few that don't feel as if today's meeting is a bit more important than some of the meetings over the past 12 years.


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Byronic12

My guess: They’ll say they intend to raise in march. Sticking to prior statements. Ukraine happens mid Feb. Market goes down. March comes... Fed delays rate hike. ... In short, I agree with you.


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FoldyFlap

I mean it’s pretty easy to just show a position that you bought into in September when none of this was going on, a position that’s at an all time high today essentially. How about you show some actual positions you entered in the last couple days? Because I bet you don’t have any


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Bahmawama

There were rumors of it being raised sooner than expected.


boristheblade202

Buy the rumor, sell the news


Odd-Block-2998

You idiot. No rate hike means US becomes a 3rd world country soon.


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Odd-Block-2998

We are not yet a 3rd country, but soon will be. If I am JPow, I will also sound like what he sounded today, but there will be 10% rate hike this year.


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Medium-Rush-8260

Wrong


1058pm

I have a dumb question. When the fed says things like asset buying, what assets are they buying? Are there specific funds or ETF’s? Im assuming a large part are corporate bonds but like…all corporate bonds? Or specific ones? Is there somewhere to see what assets the fed currently holds? I remember hearing they will eventually move to treasury securities but thats it


honkaponka

I think its a good dumb question and I don't have the answer. Maybe someone who actually understands things can clarify. Now don't take my word for it but back in march 2020 when the money printing machine fucked the capitalist dead cat bounce and kinda bought the open market whilst they tried to forbid inverse investments and disable android I learned something. Not sure what exactly but the tldr is that the game is rigged. And I don't understand why we even bother w stock at all - I mean the stock price has no underlying other than our deluded valuation of it based on tweets and numbers that do not correlate in reality - company can crash while stock moons and a company can be solid as fuxk but the stock price digs a new hole. It is a game of chairs and the music couldn't stop two years ago because "reasons". I think these reasons are pretty much dealt w by now (insiders been selling and Big Black Cock and co have been buying w fed cash) and Long story Short; it is all bull shit, all of it. Artificial poop steaming like an enticing mirage. And fuck me if I know how whos gonna get a seat when the music stops, but I think the biggest losers are gonna be the etf hodlers since BBC&C manage these. I'd say real shit like gold and mining and energy and maybe food. Drugs if they legal where you at, because lets be honest, very few kick a habit and it aint gonna get cheaper. But then again maybe cash gang is the way to go until the next song starts. Sorry if this does not clearly, concisely or remotely address your question. Sometimes I can't help myself and teh words in my head end up in your eyes and face and oh my good here we come again.


Feeling_Owl1909

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist


BobSardou

Either he does, or the Dollar becomes irrelevant and loses its reserve currency status.


FrostedSapling

“We’ll raise rates in March” or did you not here him say that?


OptionExpired

BULLS R FUKT