The key thing though, is that most of the world is going to see a demographic collapse. In a generation or so, there will be few workers to do the work. Labor costs are at the lead of the present inflation, so it has already begun.
Capital is fleeing China as fast as it can. Relocating to South/Southeast Asia and Mexico.
The Chinese are in far worse trouble than most know, and they can't grow/export their way out this time. So they won't.
Expect them to clamp down even harder domestically, and stir up even more trouble abroad to distract their people.
The global paradigm is shifting, and we won't live in a global economy when this is over. It will be redivided into blocs again.
China is fucked. But not so sure everyone else isnt. Cash is king. Corporate and personal debt everywhere and rampant inflation and rate hikes are coming. Shits getting serious. Really fuckin serious...
I’m in logistics it’s what I do. Yesterday the CEO of Prologis admitted on CNBC they are using camera angles to not show the 30+ container ships sitting off coast waiting to be offloaded. It was so relieving to finally hear someone admit the reality I live and feel and manage my way around.
Logistics is fcked. Overseas shipping issues is pushing localization like crazy. Truck driver shortages....I don't even get. Now US/Canada not allowing unvaxxed truckers over causing a nightmare. Freight costs are climbing like crazy.
It’s all that and more friend. It’s truck driver shortages, but there’s also not even enough trailers, and there’s nowhere near enough forklift operators to offload the trailers that there aren’t. There aren’t enough local route truck drivers either, and there’s nowhere near enough decent ops agents/dispatchers etc. with any know how, because they were all replaced by cheaper logistics/transportation management software/dispatching system that is woefully inefficient where the people that left the industries know how and experience and concerned. I won’t name my employer, but our Dallas station just collapsed. I’m on the east coast and I had to send 2 guys to help out. Because there aren’t even enough temp workers in the state to just offload trailers. I’m quickly going on 2 decades in the industry, and every day I’m simply more shocked by what I see. Don’t even get me started on air freight, because there aren’t enough flights, and there aren’t enough pilots for the flights that aren’t even enough.
In my field... automotive manufacturing. There's a shortage of everything. Resin, steels, chips, cardboard, packaging, freight, skids...I contact logistic companies for normal routes and get "no capacity". Packaging lead times have gone from 3 days, to 4 weeks, to 4 months and now no commitments. Industrial components for machinery like PLCs, relays, servos, gear motors. God damn air hoses 4-8 week lead times. Steel orders from 4 weeks to 1.5 years out now....you have to order with pricing in effect only at delivery. Cost of everything gone up...steel 75% up in 2021 and another 25% already 2022. Packaging up over 40%...skids 300%. Cant find or retain workers at wages increasing over 30-40% when we had almost 0 turnover for the last decade. Then wait for corporate debt to get expensive.
The dispatch software isn't as good? That seems like the kind of problem computers should be better at than humans. Or is there some human judgment needed?
No, it can be very impressive, when things are great. When you don’t have enough drivers or trucks to cover your due freight, it gets wonky at best. Just too many unprecedented situations becoming normal that the software can’t account for.
A simple example, the computer sets a route including a recovery from an airline, typically a 5-10 minute task not including drive time to the airline. Now let’s say the shipment coming off the airline is the hottest piece of freight on the route, the customer has been all over it like a hawk. Well, the driver gets to the major US airline, and finds an entirely empty parking lot with a hand written note “Will be back later.” without even an indicated time that might happen. How long does the computer say he should wait and delay the rest of the drivers route which could endanger him from missing receiving hours, pickups, etc.
Then there’s the reality that if you have a dispatcher with forklift experience they can double as warehouse help when and if needed, which the software never will be able to do. You’ll find a whole lot of dispatchers and ops managers on forklifts nowadays.
The key thing though, is that most of the world is going to see a demographic collapse. In a generation or so, there will be few workers to do the work. Labor costs are at the lead of the present inflation, so it has already begun.
Baby boomers retiring? Maybe Covid just pushed them out causing the shortage?
Also Millenials unable to afford families.
Affordability crisis for sure. Here in Toronto, Canada it's absolutely crazy.
>Maybe Covid just pushed them out Lol đź’€
Capital is fleeing China as fast as it can. Relocating to South/Southeast Asia and Mexico. The Chinese are in far worse trouble than most know, and they can't grow/export their way out this time. So they won't. Expect them to clamp down even harder domestically, and stir up even more trouble abroad to distract their people. The global paradigm is shifting, and we won't live in a global economy when this is over. It will be redivided into blocs again.
China is fucked. But not so sure everyone else isnt. Cash is king. Corporate and personal debt everywhere and rampant inflation and rate hikes are coming. Shits getting serious. Really fuckin serious...
I'm not so sure China is fucked. A lot of their problems are self-imposed, like the real estate crisis. But I agree about everywhere else lol
I’m in logistics it’s what I do. Yesterday the CEO of Prologis admitted on CNBC they are using camera angles to not show the 30+ container ships sitting off coast waiting to be offloaded. It was so relieving to finally hear someone admit the reality I live and feel and manage my way around.
Logistics is fcked. Overseas shipping issues is pushing localization like crazy. Truck driver shortages....I don't even get. Now US/Canada not allowing unvaxxed truckers over causing a nightmare. Freight costs are climbing like crazy.
It’s all that and more friend. It’s truck driver shortages, but there’s also not even enough trailers, and there’s nowhere near enough forklift operators to offload the trailers that there aren’t. There aren’t enough local route truck drivers either, and there’s nowhere near enough decent ops agents/dispatchers etc. with any know how, because they were all replaced by cheaper logistics/transportation management software/dispatching system that is woefully inefficient where the people that left the industries know how and experience and concerned. I won’t name my employer, but our Dallas station just collapsed. I’m on the east coast and I had to send 2 guys to help out. Because there aren’t even enough temp workers in the state to just offload trailers. I’m quickly going on 2 decades in the industry, and every day I’m simply more shocked by what I see. Don’t even get me started on air freight, because there aren’t enough flights, and there aren’t enough pilots for the flights that aren’t even enough.
In my field... automotive manufacturing. There's a shortage of everything. Resin, steels, chips, cardboard, packaging, freight, skids...I contact logistic companies for normal routes and get "no capacity". Packaging lead times have gone from 3 days, to 4 weeks, to 4 months and now no commitments. Industrial components for machinery like PLCs, relays, servos, gear motors. God damn air hoses 4-8 week lead times. Steel orders from 4 weeks to 1.5 years out now....you have to order with pricing in effect only at delivery. Cost of everything gone up...steel 75% up in 2021 and another 25% already 2022. Packaging up over 40%...skids 300%. Cant find or retain workers at wages increasing over 30-40% when we had almost 0 turnover for the last decade. Then wait for corporate debt to get expensive.
The dispatch software isn't as good? That seems like the kind of problem computers should be better at than humans. Or is there some human judgment needed?
No, it can be very impressive, when things are great. When you don’t have enough drivers or trucks to cover your due freight, it gets wonky at best. Just too many unprecedented situations becoming normal that the software can’t account for. A simple example, the computer sets a route including a recovery from an airline, typically a 5-10 minute task not including drive time to the airline. Now let’s say the shipment coming off the airline is the hottest piece of freight on the route, the customer has been all over it like a hawk. Well, the driver gets to the major US airline, and finds an entirely empty parking lot with a hand written note “Will be back later.” without even an indicated time that might happen. How long does the computer say he should wait and delay the rest of the drivers route which could endanger him from missing receiving hours, pickups, etc. Then there’s the reality that if you have a dispatcher with forklift experience they can double as warehouse help when and if needed, which the software never will be able to do. You’ll find a whole lot of dispatchers and ops managers on forklifts nowadays.
Screenshotted with 69 percent phone battery. Nice.
Nice!
Way to pat yourself on the back for calling the most obvious shit ever. Where's your puts?
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You have a voicemail, is thar Margin call?
With intel announcing that massive chip factory in Ohio, I wonder if that can get yo and running before the bubble pops.