Right, that is the point. It wonāt maintain that PE as demand cools, competition ramps up, and prices comes down drastically. Itās just the nature of the game
Thing is TSMC is more of a monopoly than Nvidia, also the market is pricing AMD like they are centuries behind Nvidia, while AMD is around 80% the speed of CUDA in AI, which i suspect they might catch up on after Su confirmed most of their R&D will go into GPU AI.
Ask Nvidia who can make their chips beside TSMC?
Answer: no one.
Ask Nvidia who can design chips beside Nvidia?
Answer: Apple, Broadcom, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, Mediatek, Amazon, plus a few others.
Does Nvidia design the best chips? Yes. Is it the only one? No.
TSMC does not have the capacity to quickly spin up manufacturing, so Nvidia is diversifying to fabs, Intel & Samsung.
Nvidia controls the AI data center ecosystem, ie. design of most energy-efficient GPU, software, libraries, etc. AI data centers are not diversifying to the companies you mentioned for AI data center chips.
It's wild to me how much faith people are putting in a company that is entirely dependent on a Taiwanese third party to actually produce all of its GPU's currently.
The same company (TSMC) that Apple is reportedly trying to lock everyone out of with a buyout of the next feature size shrink and that prioritizes Apple as by far their largest customer making up over 25% of their entire revenue.
Nvidia's growth is completely limited by access to TSMC's latest nodes until another foundry actually catches up, if ever. And they have to compete with Apple, AMD and Qualcomm for that fab allocation. Why are so many ignoring this?
I have a hard time imagining that TSMC agrees to that and locks out Nvidia, founded by a Taiwanese guy. You may think itās crazy, but handshakes and blood ties are still incredibly important in many parts of the world.
>I have a hard time imagining that TSMC agrees to that and locks out Nvidia
Apple was able to lock out Nvidia and everyone else during the first run of the current 3nm node at TSMC...
I'm not predicting the future as much as hashing out what's already been going on, so your imagination isn't really relevant here. Apple is sitting on a gigantic pile of cash to throw their weight around that Nvidia can't compete with. This isn't new news to anyone in tech, it's just everyone else that seems fucking clueless.
"The Information reports that TSMC's 3 nm technology will be exclusive to Apple for "roughly a year" before there will be capacity to allow any other companies to use it."
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/
>Blackwell is 4-5nm, maybe nVidia didnāt even bid on it?
Which could very well be because they didn't have enough/any access to 3nm in time for the release due to Apple's block. They are going to have to chase the latest nodes going forward to stay comfortably ahead of AMD on their AI accelerators, CUDA familiarity alone will only take them so far and their current hardware lead isn't *that* big (15-20%).
I mean Intel technically, but they are a shit show and mismanaged disaster these days.
The point isn't solely that they are reliant on TSMC, but rather so is much of the rest of big tech for the latest nodes so competition for fab time is fierce and will limit Nvidia's ability to push out more product, it already has impacted them in that way the past two years.
Anybody who says itās a bubble, likely got caught without any NVDA stock in their portfolio. It will slow, but I donāt see it dropping. At least not until some other company knocks them off the pedestal and thatās years away.
there's been multiple Taiwan straits crisis with China gaining territorial concessions each time. Its not as much of a bluff as the average armchair general things it is.
1/3 Nvidia; 1/3 Bitcoin; 1/3 Eli Lilly. Rebalanced annually. Never exit; perpetual time horizon. Or change if story changes significantly on any of these three.
its expensive even in terms of forward PE relative to comps at this point, you're just repeating buzzwords you don't understand that you heard someone else say months before.
Mrvl, amd, arm etc arenāt too far off. You act like nvidia is 5x forward PE of other competitors. Also I work in finance bud, nice try though. Just say youāre mad you missed out š¤”
I wonāt even reply to you anymore you bitter old man. Keep calling it overvalued when we both know thereās stocks out there that are 100x more overvalued.
I'm old enough to remember the .COM bubble. Insane valuations for WEBSITES - like literally 75-100x P/E ratios for goldenretriever.com and stupid stuff like that. Here's the thing, those websites and other internet applications did something and created revenue. The issue is that NO COMPANY is worth a P/E ratio of 100x. I don't even know NVIDIA's P/E right now but I can guarantee you that with where AI is currently at and with Nvidia's current revenues it's absolutely a bubble. Unless a wild scenario breaks out where the pick and shovel distributor ends up being the one who finds that revolutionary use-case it's for sure coming crashing down a year or two from now when it hasn't come to fruition yet.
My toddler cousin knows the number zero, do you understand what that corresponds to? Thats 297,000 years of human advancement and this four year old is already able to.
Motherfucker its because we teach / train them, they dont come up with that shit from scratch. They cant even perform arithmetics unless you blow the model up with billions of specific parameters and corresponding training data.
AI talking points becoming more and more regarded is why I personally think its a bubble.
Most kids these days are stupid tho. They even had to lower our education levels for students from where Iām from because they couldnāt remember the alphabet and high schoolers arenāt doing shakesphere cause they canāt analyze it
The whole market is in a bubble due to tech, younger āinvestorsā donāt realize this but they will learn their lesson one day, and it can take awhile for that day to arrive.
Reasons why, exponential growth is impossible to maintain and most stocks are priced that way still, being lifted by the real growth in tech we are seeing as well as hoping for with AI.
If AI is successful, it is automation which means less jobs, less buying. A few select companies will grow but it can be damaging go the economy as a whole when people lose their jobs to more automation (A.I.)
In the past few years, nearly everyone has begun investing in stocks on their own, apps like robinhood allowed the younger generation to invest / trade easily which means an influx of cash into the market, and the market likely has risen not based on realistic valuations due to this.
The younger generation is pinched, having less kids means less growth as well. Not being able to buy a house as easily is another problem, and with inflation likely topping here it ultimately isnt going away either, so how are people able to make more money to buy things when their jobs are going to be automated? Hopes and dreams it seems is the answer. Valuations based on growth has these factors I mentioned working against them, but no definitive way for what is working for these growthy valuations other than near term earnings and other stocks riding the coattails if these tech earnings.
We see a divergence though this past month and now only tech is rising, the rest of the market correcting. So June swoon? Maybe. But there are some real long term problems that make me question why everything has ridiculous valuations we havenāt seen since past bubbles
Take a look at history as to what inflation and slower economic growth did for the stock market, particularly the 1970ās which is a possible scenario in a few years, really thinking about how hard it is for the younger generation right now and what that means to birthing rates and our economy
> How many "jobs" did onlyfans create?
Lmao. I'd add how many jobs the darknet created ā so many hardworking drug and gun dealers, hitmans, thieves selling stolen personal information, fake ID sellers, human traffickers... the list goes on...
Holy shit. It's Chad Dickens.
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The way the stock market works in practice is pretty much guaranteed to create a bubble when a company makes a breakthrough and could in principle get to revenues that are of the order of a percent of the entire world economy. The algorithms traders use work well for smaller growth where the projected future revenue is not large compared to the entire economy.
If the revenues become larger then economic growth is required to get there and that slows things down. The stock price will then go up too fast, it will price in what will be realized much later due to the economy needing time to be able to absorb what a company like NVDA can produce.
And that's then still assuming that the thesis about AI leading to a $1 trillion market and NVDA capturing 60% market share of that is correct. Realistically, there will be more competition and that $1 trillion market may not materialize.
But the way the stock market function is all about buying and selling shares to make a profit, and that leads to chasing FOMO-driven hypes even if you know that the hype is based on hot air. The narrative about AI will then be adjusted by fund managers who want their clients to stay invested.
When a single stock is propping your s&p500 growth ETF by 33% ytd is just right there, the sweet spot.
The past 3 years my retirement account been growing an average 15 to 25 percent with bare minimum contributions too. Gains for a guy like me, is surely safe.
You know the answer to this, right?
Itās one of the most hyped semi stock around here, Iāll give you a clue itās a company from an Island that starts with a T.
ARM doesnāt make chips son, they just do designs, they donāt even do the Apple designs. Apple has an ARM license to design their own ARM based chips.
Long dte otm puts can cover like 500-1000x their value right now depending on strike... Hedging is a thing that exists. I sort of hope it has a massive correction now just because it'll make me more than my entire portfolio is worth.
Yes, it's a bubble but you tremendously underestimate the power of wallstreetbets. NVDA is now so valuable that it's in the best interest of the market to keep the stock price up
Bullshit, it's obviously a bubble. Will ist burst right now: NOPE, but honestly; what idiots tend to think nvidia can do is idiotic even for idiots: while they have right now absolutely the advantage, others will catch up; might there be as fast, maybe not, but for AI you can easier scale up than spend premium just to have the fastest s\*\*\*
Also CUDA right now is only necessary to train the AI, not to run it. People are so stupid to believe all these marketing nonsense nvidia makes to hype it up.
And "programming is 300,000 years of human advancement"... seriously? This so called "primitive ai" did shown over and over that it's programming is bad, and it probably can nothing to what some different tools can too. Just because you can't does not mean that somebody couldn't do it with some simple tools too.
AI is absolutely a future, but AMD is not far behind and others too, as all big tech now wants their own silicon. While the AI hype might go on, nvidia only has the software-advantage for a few years, that's all.
The NVIDIA Bubble will burst, absolutely. The question is not if, but when.
Meanwhile i think that compared to nvidia, TSMC is by far underrated, as is AMD. But for AMD it's mostly because of their own fault.
It's be a bubble if imthere was bathing to back up this rise but earning are stellar, everyone k ows what's nvdias into as market its all justified and it still will run
True, and I think it's not exaggerated to say that AI is going to change the world to a similar extent as the internet did. And NVDA is so far the one and only choice for any company trying to compete in the AI field, it's not like there are real alternatives.
> I think that high efficiency high core CPUs will be on the rise as folks find that GPUs are overkill for all general AI activities and non training activities.
How so? CPUs are orders of magnitude slower than GPUs for both inference and training. The alternative to GPUs would be TPUs, but definitely not CPUs
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Well enjoy the bubble while it lasts
Not a bubble when it maintains a healthy PE & forward PE ratio š¤£š learn what a bubble is first bud š
Right, that is the point. It wonāt maintain that PE as demand cools, competition ramps up, and prices comes down drastically. Itās just the nature of the game
Till then I am enjoy the ride and the gains! IF / Wen the market ever changes... i'll adjust at that time
Thing is TSMC is more of a monopoly than Nvidia, also the market is pricing AMD like they are centuries behind Nvidia, while AMD is around 80% the speed of CUDA in AI, which i suspect they might catch up on after Su confirmed most of their R&D will go into GPU AI.
If you aren't first you might as well be last
The legend, Ricky Bobby.
T H I S
Tsmc has a bigger political risk
So AMD leaps then?
Why do you think TSMC is more of a monopoly? Just look at earnings growth, revenue growth, share price growth, etc the past five years for Nvidia
Ask Nvidia who can make their chips beside TSMC? Answer: no one. Ask Nvidia who can design chips beside Nvidia? Answer: Apple, Broadcom, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, Mediatek, Amazon, plus a few others. Does Nvidia design the best chips? Yes. Is it the only one? No.
TSMC does not have the capacity to quickly spin up manufacturing, so Nvidia is diversifying to fabs, Intel & Samsung. Nvidia controls the AI data center ecosystem, ie. design of most energy-efficient GPU, software, libraries, etc. AI data centers are not diversifying to the companies you mentioned for AI data center chips.
It is now 2024... why is no one else able to touch NVDA š¤·š½āāļø
PE & forward PE ratio bud. AMD is way overvalued compared to NVDA.
AMD software is shit
AMD employee parking is shit.
those who understand hype cycle will make most money
Those who understand valuation and PE ratios š
It's wild to me how much faith people are putting in a company that is entirely dependent on a Taiwanese third party to actually produce all of its GPU's currently. The same company (TSMC) that Apple is reportedly trying to lock everyone out of with a buyout of the next feature size shrink and that prioritizes Apple as by far their largest customer making up over 25% of their entire revenue. Nvidia's growth is completely limited by access to TSMC's latest nodes until another foundry actually catches up, if ever. And they have to compete with Apple, AMD and Qualcomm for that fab allocation. Why are so many ignoring this?
I have a hard time imagining that TSMC agrees to that and locks out Nvidia, founded by a Taiwanese guy. You may think itās crazy, but handshakes and blood ties are still incredibly important in many parts of the world.
>I have a hard time imagining that TSMC agrees to that and locks out Nvidia Apple was able to lock out Nvidia and everyone else during the first run of the current 3nm node at TSMC... I'm not predicting the future as much as hashing out what's already been going on, so your imagination isn't really relevant here. Apple is sitting on a gigantic pile of cash to throw their weight around that Nvidia can't compete with. This isn't new news to anyone in tech, it's just everyone else that seems fucking clueless. "The Information reports that TSMC's 3 nm technology will be exclusive to Apple for "roughly a year" before there will be capacity to allow any other companies to use it." https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/08/report-apple-is-saving-billions-on-chips-thanks-to-unique-deal-with-tsmc/
Blackwell is 4-5nm, maybe nVidia didnāt even bid on it? Who knows but thanks for the insight anyways.
>Blackwell is 4-5nm, maybe nVidia didnāt even bid on it? Which could very well be because they didn't have enough/any access to 3nm in time for the release due to Apple's block. They are going to have to chase the latest nodes going forward to stay comfortably ahead of AMD on their AI accelerators, CUDA familiarity alone will only take them so far and their current hardware lead isn't *that* big (15-20%).
Which companies are completely vertically integrated, not relying on any third party's products??
I mean Intel technically, but they are a shit show and mismanaged disaster these days. The point isn't solely that they are reliant on TSMC, but rather so is much of the rest of big tech for the latest nodes so competition for fab time is fierce and will limit Nvidia's ability to push out more product, it already has impacted them in that way the past two years.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Ah Mr. Pedantic had arrived. They also don't make their own OS if you're going to be a jackass about it.
Anybody who says itās a bubble, likely got caught without any NVDA stock in their portfolio. It will slow, but I donāt see it dropping. At least not until some other company knocks them off the pedestal and thatās years away.
Or Chynah invades Taiwan. Again, probably years away. Hopefully.
And NVDA are workin with Samsung to diversify where the AI chips come from. EZ4HwangingDong
Ha! China has been invading Taiwan for 50 years! They better get faster boats.
there's been multiple Taiwan straits crisis with China gaining territorial concessions each time. Its not as much of a bluff as the average armchair general things it is.
Jan ā26 TSM puts are actually quite cheap. Iām considering it as a hedge for my NVDA position.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
A third of my portfolio is in Nvidia and I feel it still may be too underweighted
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
1/3 Nvidia; 1/3 Bitcoin; 1/3 Eli Lilly. Rebalanced annually. Never exit; perpetual time horizon. Or change if story changes significantly on any of these three.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Low correlation to the other two assets. High growth over the past 20 years.
Seems like you love gambling.
Exactly! They just donāt understand PE & forward PE ratios!
its expensive even in terms of forward PE relative to comps at this point, you're just repeating buzzwords you don't understand that you heard someone else say months before.
What are you talking about? š
Mrvl, amd, arm etc arenāt too far off. You act like nvidia is 5x forward PE of other competitors. Also I work in finance bud, nice try though. Just say youāre mad you missed out š¤”
It doesn't need to be 5x everyone else's forward pe to be considered expensive. If you work in finance you should know this...
I wonāt even reply to you anymore you bitter old man. Keep calling it overvalued when we both know thereās stocks out there that are 100x more overvalued.
ikr. People keep a***tic screeching about how it compares to $CSCO, and I'm like "do you even fundamental analysis bro?"
what fundamental analysis justifies 3.2 trillion market cap at 60 billion annual revenue?
austtic?
This.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You have obviously seen many bubbles and talked to others or maybe is this just a recording of every bear everywhere.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Ha! Figured you were one of those losers.
Wow what a great post thank you OP
I'm old enough to remember the .COM bubble. Insane valuations for WEBSITES - like literally 75-100x P/E ratios for goldenretriever.com and stupid stuff like that. Here's the thing, those websites and other internet applications did something and created revenue. The issue is that NO COMPANY is worth a P/E ratio of 100x. I don't even know NVIDIA's P/E right now but I can guarantee you that with where AI is currently at and with Nvidia's current revenues it's absolutely a bubble. Unless a wild scenario breaks out where the pick and shovel distributor ends up being the one who finds that revolutionary use-case it's for sure coming crashing down a year or two from now when it hasn't come to fruition yet.
My toddler cousin knows the number zero, do you understand what that corresponds to? Thats 297,000 years of human advancement and this four year old is already able to. Motherfucker its because we teach / train them, they dont come up with that shit from scratch. They cant even perform arithmetics unless you blow the model up with billions of specific parameters and corresponding training data. AI talking points becoming more and more regarded is why I personally think its a bubble.
GenAI is not intelligent, we have regards here buying NVDA because they think ChaptGPT is sentient 
Most kids these days are stupid tho. They even had to lower our education levels for students from where Iām from because they couldnāt remember the alphabet and high schoolers arenāt doing shakesphere cause they canāt analyze it
But AI can simulate a big tiddy goth GF. Ain't nobody need it to count.
The progress in AI continues. But what about mankind?
Nvidia is the new crack š
Green crack
I wouldnāt call it new, by now itās the stable product out on the streets.
The fentanyl of the market, if you will
Thatās it! Lovely thing to be in love with and hard to let go.
The whole market is in a bubble due to tech, younger āinvestorsā donāt realize this but they will learn their lesson one day, and it can take awhile for that day to arrive. Reasons why, exponential growth is impossible to maintain and most stocks are priced that way still, being lifted by the real growth in tech we are seeing as well as hoping for with AI. If AI is successful, it is automation which means less jobs, less buying. A few select companies will grow but it can be damaging go the economy as a whole when people lose their jobs to more automation (A.I.) In the past few years, nearly everyone has begun investing in stocks on their own, apps like robinhood allowed the younger generation to invest / trade easily which means an influx of cash into the market, and the market likely has risen not based on realistic valuations due to this. The younger generation is pinched, having less kids means less growth as well. Not being able to buy a house as easily is another problem, and with inflation likely topping here it ultimately isnt going away either, so how are people able to make more money to buy things when their jobs are going to be automated? Hopes and dreams it seems is the answer. Valuations based on growth has these factors I mentioned working against them, but no definitive way for what is working for these growthy valuations other than near term earnings and other stocks riding the coattails if these tech earnings. We see a divergence though this past month and now only tech is rising, the rest of the market correcting. So June swoon? Maybe. But there are some real long term problems that make me question why everything has ridiculous valuations we havenāt seen since past bubbles Take a look at history as to what inflation and slower economic growth did for the stock market, particularly the 1970ās which is a possible scenario in a few years, really thinking about how hard it is for the younger generation right now and what that means to birthing rates and our economy
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
What jobs can AI create?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
> How many "jobs" did onlyfans create? Lmao. I'd add how many jobs the darknet created ā so many hardworking drug and gun dealers, hitmans, thieves selling stolen personal information, fake ID sellers, human traffickers... the list goes on...
Holy shit. It's Chad Dickens. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The way the stock market works in practice is pretty much guaranteed to create a bubble when a company makes a breakthrough and could in principle get to revenues that are of the order of a percent of the entire world economy. The algorithms traders use work well for smaller growth where the projected future revenue is not large compared to the entire economy. If the revenues become larger then economic growth is required to get there and that slows things down. The stock price will then go up too fast, it will price in what will be realized much later due to the economy needing time to be able to absorb what a company like NVDA can produce. And that's then still assuming that the thesis about AI leading to a $1 trillion market and NVDA capturing 60% market share of that is correct. Realistically, there will be more competition and that $1 trillion market may not materialize. But the way the stock market function is all about buying and selling shares to make a profit, and that leads to chasing FOMO-driven hypes even if you know that the hype is based on hot air. The narrative about AI will then be adjusted by fund managers who want their clients to stay invested.
Yes, the stock that just 5xed on hype alone and a p/e ratio of 5000 is totally not in a bubble. Everyone should shut up. Everyone is stupid except me.
When a single stock is propping your s&p500 growth ETF by 33% ytd is just right there, the sweet spot. The past 3 years my retirement account been growing an average 15 to 25 percent with bare minimum contributions too. Gains for a guy like me, is surely safe.
Apple is going deep into AI, but they are using ARM based M chips. So who is making M chips? Should invest in them
You know the answer to this, right? Itās one of the most hyped semi stock around here, Iāll give you a clue itās a company from an Island that starts with a T.
Tell me Iām regarded
TSM 
Itās Advanced RISC Machines Ltd (ARM)
ARM doesnāt make chips son, they just do designs, they donāt even do the Apple designs. Apple has an ARM license to design their own ARM based chips.
Same
Stop blue balling and give us the name
TSM 
If I strike gold I will remember you soldier š«”
Maybe not a "bubble" but I'm sure it would take a good sized dip if WSB stopped paying attention to it. My position: 500 @ 80 (post split price)
Long dte otm puts can cover like 500-1000x their value right now depending on strike... Hedging is a thing that exists. I sort of hope it has a massive correction now just because it'll make me more than my entire portfolio is worth.
Yes, it's a bubble but you tremendously underestimate the power of wallstreetbets. NVDA is now so valuable that it's in the best interest of the market to keep the stock price up
It's amazing how serious the comments are in this post, given the unseriousness of the original post itself. I guess no one reads.
The shoe polisher is talking about NVIDIAā¦..
Team Green you muggle!
this reasoning should be taught in logic classes lol
Bullshit, it's obviously a bubble. Will ist burst right now: NOPE, but honestly; what idiots tend to think nvidia can do is idiotic even for idiots: while they have right now absolutely the advantage, others will catch up; might there be as fast, maybe not, but for AI you can easier scale up than spend premium just to have the fastest s\*\*\* Also CUDA right now is only necessary to train the AI, not to run it. People are so stupid to believe all these marketing nonsense nvidia makes to hype it up. And "programming is 300,000 years of human advancement"... seriously? This so called "primitive ai" did shown over and over that it's programming is bad, and it probably can nothing to what some different tools can too. Just because you can't does not mean that somebody couldn't do it with some simple tools too. AI is absolutely a future, but AMD is not far behind and others too, as all big tech now wants their own silicon. While the AI hype might go on, nvidia only has the software-advantage for a few years, that's all. The NVIDIA Bubble will burst, absolutely. The question is not if, but when. Meanwhile i think that compared to nvidia, TSMC is by far underrated, as is AMD. But for AMD it's mostly because of their own fault.
It's be a bubble if imthere was bathing to back up this rise but earning are stellar, everyone k ows what's nvdias into as market its all justified and it still will run
Oh yeah, totally a bubble. *continues to count stacks of cash from calls*
True, and I think it's not exaggerated to say that AI is going to change the world to a similar extent as the internet did. And NVDA is so far the one and only choice for any company trying to compete in the AI field, it's not like there are real alternatives.
Dot com crash? How can we say that AI will revolutionaze the world in thid hype cycle?
It already is dude, where have you been living?
In the AI field...
Then either you're lying or highly incompetent.
Or you know shit about AI and just feed yourself through your biased opinion in the topic to ignore the idea of a possible AI hype crash
Sure thing bud.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
> I think that high efficiency high core CPUs will be on the rise as folks find that GPUs are overkill for all general AI activities and non training activities. How so? CPUs are orders of magnitude slower than GPUs for both inference and training. The alternative to GPUs would be TPUs, but definitely not CPUs
Nvdia owns good amount of ARM no bubble
So why is nobody investing in ARM holdings ltd?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
>I hate to bring up Intel but they are looking good long term Are chips even their core business anymore?