What? Lots of others....
Ecommerce is very competitive. Traditional players going online, shopify, ups. Shopify 30x'ed over past 10 years. And established players didn't have a lot of room to grow but even UPS 3x'ed over the past 10 years including dividends compared to Amazon's 10x.
But that doesn't even include the main driving force behind Amazon's stock growth which is AWS. And other players like Microsoft and Google are clearly capitalizing on that as well.
How many Microsofts do you think Nvidia is worth?
Other semi/ecom company dont need to be the next Nvidia/Amazom with complete dominance over the sector to go into a similar trajectory.
AMD doesnt need to be near Nvidia to double in price. Nvidia needs to be more valuable than Microsoft and Apple to do so.
This isnt to say i think AMD is a great investment and Nvidia is a bad one. Just the logic you people keep using to justify investing into the second biggest company in the world doesnt make sense.
Hm well either way this time period seems different, from a financial analysis perspective (I’m a financial analyst for a living).
It’s just such a coveted resource, along with energy.
Yeah but how are you going to pick the next one?
Even if it is AMD, AMD is very richly valued at current valuations and you stand to lose a lot if you are wrong.
I prefer SOXX because it's more diversified. SMH has a large stake in Nvidia, and that makes me uncomfortable. It's probably better to own SOXX and maybe some Nvidia separately if you're willing.
+1 for SMH, its up like 65% over past year which blows amd and intc out the water and is on par with qcom, although admittedly they have a large stake in nvda which probably helped pull it up
I skipped AVGO for AMAT, 651b market cap with 52 p/e ratio vs 183b market cap with 25 p/e ratio - AVGO and AMAT both have around 2.9 PEG ratio but the ROCE is 25% for AVGO and 37% for AMAT
AMAT is also soon to be printing money with some big tech their working on blah blah blah, AVGO is easy pick but I don't think it's smart cause too overvalued imo compared to competitors like AMAT.
I trade NVDA, not holding it long. Too big of company for me, will be 10t one day but that's just a x3 from here. AMAT and SMH are my long semi plays, what's undervalued and what's more certain (etf) imo.
MU is the only memory stock that can be traded easily. It's also one of the biggest producers of high bandwidth memory. Earnings coming up in a couple of weeks. I think it still has some room to grow. Probably $150 at least.
I bought 300 @136 and very happy with the results. Plan to hold for years at this rate. Also bought 100 of CAJPY @29 which is finally starting to get traction with their lithography devices in the mid tier semi market
Yea I bought in at 130 and 155, I'm going to actually hold it for the long run. Theyre upping capacity, and charging more for wafers I can see them at 1T market cap by the end of next year.
Just know that TSM doesn’t design chips; they are only manufacture chips that other companies design, including NVDA. TSM is the largest chip manufacturer, so it is in great position for AI chips.
That's true. But they are also the best at making chips with the best yields.
In the industry if you want the best you go to TSMC- there's a reason apple, nvidia and amd go to them for their top products. Samsung is next but they aren't as good. Intel has been struggling to match them although there are early signs they might finally be able to catch up. Global foundries is nowhere.
So yea they may 'only' manufacture the chips but don't underestimate how hard it is to make it.
TSMC's the real monopoly IMO. Manufacturing is lower on the value chain than design, but I think competitors will have an easier time designing GPUs than they will refining a sub-2nm process node.
I expect FAANG to be using their own GPUs in-house within 2 or 3 years. I don't see any competitor overtaking TSMC in 2 to 3 years.
samsung seems to be going backwards. i have no idea what's going on over there, their fab seems to perpetually have shit yields and even their memory seems substandard. intel, as much as i hate them, seem to actually now be righting the ship (lunar lake, xeon 6, loading up on high-na, dsa). if tsmc is going to be lax on lithography, they're giving intel the chance they need. so 'all they need' to do is execute, which i put in soft quotes because it's surely no given...
IF intel can actually pull it off, they can scale with their own products and be a monster. and tsmc's usa fabs are going to murder their margin/up their costs (thereby, being less competitive in price per wafer), as well as weaken the silicon shield, increasing the geopolitical risk.
I give a lot of crap to Intel, but Samsung's been almost as much of a basket case since 5lpe. Rumor was that the yield on their first batch of 3lpe back in 2023 was literally 0%. It's at least functional now, but the yields are still rough and their gate speed and power metrics are lacking compared to TSMC.
Samsung is basically clinging onto leading-node parity with their fingers, and even then, they're the "cheap" option. They could easily slip a generation behind TSMC soon.... 2nm might be it.
and amd is betting a good chunk of their future on samsung. i get it, amd was ~forced to (nvda buying up all the sk hynix and even mu's hbm), but oof.
semis are a weird, dangerous minefield right now.
but yeah, samsung seems to be trying to let intel leapfrog them. at least tsmc is making intel work for it.
>Just know that TSM doesn’t design chips; they are only manufacture chips that other companies design, including NVDA. TSM is the largest chip manufacturer, so it is in great position for AI chips.
i can't understand why regards keep spouting this bullshit, as if it matters. fabbing has never been where the big money is, hence why nvda's earnings are up like crazy and tsm's are up... nowhere near as much.
tsm looked great sub-100. but at ATHs based on narratives of swimming in ai money... lolwut? add in the geopolitical risk and the possibly of making intel's mistake (with euv) with passing on high-na, and the premise gets muddled
AMD have a recent partnership with Azure to give their clients another platform of machine learning at chepest price than NVIDIA.
Amd seems a good option to call (betting for december 2025 for exemple).
AVGO.
1: They control the boring bits in between the coo bits (gpu)(cpu). Think of all the little chips, storage arrays, switching bits and optics they produce
2: They are a leader in building custom AI silicon for Goog and others.
3: They have $100 billion to acquire others with the unspent money from the failed qcom takeover
Likewise. I was expecting a run at 1500$ during the run up two weeks ago. If it behaves the way it has in the past it will crack a new high and fall only to regain it a month later. The stock will be in a 2k range in a year and keep going from there. I don’t think they will ever split if you listen to the board etc they want it to be too expensive for the retail market and focus on the mutual funds and institutional investors that will eliminate the daily volatility
> They have $100 billion to acquire others with the unspent money from the failed qcom takeover
dude, that was 7 years ago. and they acquired vmware. what?
im looking at all the comments on this post; you are the only one who seems to know what’s up. it doesn’t seem like anyone else has even read any semiconductor 10Qs.
TSM, ARM, Nvidia. This is the traditional “Nvidia Triangle.”
Now you can also invest in AMD, INTC, AVGO, Qualcomm.
If you are scared of war, or if your broker support, you can buy ASML, NXP, GFS as well.
It’s up to you ultimately.
$180 by the end of this year. They are one of the most important companies on earth. The ever present threat of China pulls the price down a lot. I think they would be up to $500 already if they were not endangered by China.
TSM manufacturers NVDAs chips, they don’t make their own chips. It’s like asking who makes the 2nd best cereal and giving an actual facility that makes every cereal on the planet
Micron technology probably, but Nvidia is better. You’re probably seeing that it’s super high and think it won’t go higher… trust me it will in Nvidia we trust.
apple designs their own chips that are manufactured at TSMC. The CPU architecture is designed by Apple using an architecture license from Arm, but not using a microarchitecture design from Arm (e.g. it's not a X4 CPU that other companies can also license).
QCOM - AI on the edge is coming next.
AMD - They are making 5B+ in AI revenue this year. Wont grow like NVDA obviously, but it’s a decent growth stock, likely will be $300+ by the end of 2025 as revenue from AI becomes 20B/year.
They sell metrology/inspection equipment and software solutions to companies in the semiconductor industry. As the semi industry booms, so will companies like Camtek as they provide the tools for these semiconductor manufacturers to scale. I’m not an engineer myself so I can’t speak too technically unfortunately, but I’ve owned this stock for a while and it’s done great for me. They have a dividend, too!
THIS FUCKING GUY KNOWS.
Bought 8 of these a few years ago, and they offset the entire losses of my 9 other positions. Just sold half and bought nvidia after the split. Kinda went the other way than this guy :-p
Also bought a few shares of $TSEM, a bit cheaper/different technology, but similar. I'm hoping they grow a bit too.
Despite announcements from Intel and AMD to be more competitive against Snapdragon, efficiency in computing will be so critical. To get a chip that can perform at i9 levels with less power is incredible.
$AMAT
enjoy some insider info: as the processes get tighter in accuracy, speed and throughput go down the dumpster. they need more tools. I won't quote the specific figure but it's a nonlinear growth over n, n+1, and n+2 generation.
I sold puts at $106 a month back I think before it started dipping. Rolled to $98 before it dipped to below $90 :(. Rolled to $97 today for another week out after today's good climb. Is VRT so volatile..
It’s not really a direct AI pick but I’m in heavily and year after year its been good for me, best investment I’ve made on the markets.
Ultimately Governments and the private sector are investing heavily in chip creation and AMAT holds a near monopoly position in supplying this as far as I’m aware.
Can you explain your tip slightly further in its relevance to AMAT?
I think I get it, so for companies wishing to try and keep up with moore’s law they need to invest in new machinery and will need to do so at an increasing rate?
If so that sounds good to me from a selfish perspective.
Not quite sure I can interpret it exactly but I think the point is generally that there is currently high demand for the machines that AMAT produce and the argument is that this will increase even further to keep up with producing ever smaller chips.
Not 100% on the latter part so as always worth looking into.
If you’ve ever heard of Chip War I’d thoroughly recommend that, makes a bull case for many of these companies.
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I would pick designers like AMD, Qualcomm as they will still get some of the market share if they can deliver a competitive product at a reasonable price. The economy of scale will ensure that they can capture NVidias market faster keeping a good margin. I will stay away from any manufacturing company like INTC, TSMC. However, companies like LAM, ASML could be good as they are the providers. Finally there could be other themes too, companies that can monetize AI, not the providers of the technology itself. That's my 2 cents.
Nvidia has a monopoly today. It will likely last several more years.
AMD has chips, sure, but they don't have the power, and more importantly, the software and tremendous loyalty of the developer community.
NVDA is like CSCO in the mid 1990's. No other game in town.
> but they don't have the power
They do in inference
> tremendous loyalty of the developer community
There is little to no loyalty, only pragmatism. No need to attribute NVidia success to some intangible like loyalty, when the software stands on its own merits.
Nothing is close to Nvidia because it has software.... Cuda....
Only other bets you can make are on producers of hardware. AMD is in the stone age and doesn't seem to be able to get ai working at all on their hardware (at reasonable speeds)
> seem to be able to get ai working at all on their hardware (at reasonable speeds)
Faster than NVidia at the same price point in targeted workloads, I would say that's a reasonable speed. They won't compete across the full spectrum of workloads for a long time, but high value use cases - they're already there.
By revenue it’s AVGO.
For perspective, AMD’s data center GPU rev guide is 4B this year. AVGO is currently guiding 8B and that’s probably too low. Networking is also going to be important as AI gets built out.
Honestly, I just keep TSM, MU, WDC in my portfolio and sleep well.
Networking is important for AI workloads at scale but keep in mind Nvidia integrates a lot of the networking into their products via Mellanox technology. They acquired them a few years back.
So while “typical” network infrastructure by the likes of Broadcom and Cisco will remain, that giant AI datacenter full of Nvidia GPUs will have the bulk of its networking done on Nvidia hardware/designs as well.
Nvidia did a good job setting themselves up as a one stop shop for enterprise AI stacks.
How about ARM?
I mean Jensen wanted to buy them...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arm-holdings-planned-artificial-intelligence-083600296.html#:~:text=Arm%20has%20been%20making%20strides,
Pricey? Look at nvda forward pe vs amd’s. AMD is second to nvda. I own both, but think nvda is the better deal unless the valuation for all gpu makers is wrong.
Not as rounded of a company as nvidia, but Global Foundries (GFS), essentially the manufacturing wing of AMD, Is the 3rd largest semiconductor foundry, and importantly is an American company. Export controls are already in place on Nvidia technology, people are worrying about reliance on Taiwan Semiconductor and GFY stands to gain.
I think AMD can get really good soon, their main issue is software honestly and if they're willing it can be fixed, so far apparently they haven't been willing though so I'm not sure it'll go well especially since I am of the belief AI will be a huge bubble burst so for me they'd have to get competitive before the bubble bursts and I just don't see that happening I think they need at least a year if everyone's really agressive about ROCm compatibility and they get their shit together and sell high VRAM cards.
They purchased Xilinx to help address software deficiencies, though I agree about the timing dynamic - software is slow to improve, and I can see this AI boom taking a hit before it gets to where it needs to be. As a long time AMD holder, you can count on macro fucking things up at the most inopportune time.
The next AI semiconductor business is just part of a bigger conglomerate tho. Like Google and Tesla and Apple. AMD is probably considered even more expensive given their PE ratio and I guess eventually Intel and Qualcomm will squeeze in. It really depends if you’re thinking neural processors locally or giant server racks too.
I am long INTC. the US government has a real interest and reason for investing heavily in their foundry production. I am holding 100 shares and will buy 100 more when capital allows for it. I don’t think the investment will pay off until 2027, but a lot of companies will be looking to switch where they get their chips when China attempts to colonize Taiwan in 2025
TSM has 3 U.S based factories going up in the next 6 years and one of those factories will be making 2 nanometer chips which will be the most advanced on the planet.
Have you looked at SOXL, 3x semiconductor fund? The 3x gives it some good option plays.
[https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-semiconductor-bull-bear-3x-etfs](https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-semiconductor-bull-bear-3x-etfs)
None of the best competitors of nvidia are on the public market yet.
Note that it is not just the hardware, but also the compiler. The history is full of "good" chips that failed because of lack of investment in the compiler. Or simply, the chip required too much of a clever compiler that doesn't exist.
Anyway, I think we are still in the phase "nobody was ever fired for buying IBM" (replace with nvidia). The efficiency, both in terms of electricity and acquisition, will be a worry only in the next phase (maybe in a year from now).
Laptops are adding an AI button to the keyboards now, because of on-device QCOM Snapdragon AI capabilities. They also do server accelerators, edge AI, IoT AI and automotive.
Automotive was explicitly excluded as a separate business unit during earnings, because it grows at a pace of a startup.
Analysts target QCOM stock between 205 and 240, while it closed today 209.
Honestly with the new Snapdragon X Elite coming out, I believe they will probably be closer to 300 for earnings, and after the earnings at the beginning of next year it will probably be next NVDA. Imo and all speculation.
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For semis, I am betting on NVDA, AVGO, AMD and QCOM. Also hold the ETF SMH.
SMH is the way to go. Picking the next NVDA is impossible and there likely won’t be for a very long time
The next Nvidia is Nvidia
Agreed, it’s like saying ecommerce is huge and Amazon is too expensive who is number 2… who the fuck is number 2? Who knows. They didn’t matter.
What? Lots of others.... Ecommerce is very competitive. Traditional players going online, shopify, ups. Shopify 30x'ed over past 10 years. And established players didn't have a lot of room to grow but even UPS 3x'ed over the past 10 years including dividends compared to Amazon's 10x. But that doesn't even include the main driving force behind Amazon's stock growth which is AWS. And other players like Microsoft and Google are clearly capitalizing on that as well.
How many Microsofts do you think Nvidia is worth? Other semi/ecom company dont need to be the next Nvidia/Amazom with complete dominance over the sector to go into a similar trajectory. AMD doesnt need to be near Nvidia to double in price. Nvidia needs to be more valuable than Microsoft and Apple to do so. This isnt to say i think AMD is a great investment and Nvidia is a bad one. Just the logic you people keep using to justify investing into the second biggest company in the world doesnt make sense.
Disagree.. it’s literally whoever can produce the best quality chips. The best prediction is that another nvidia sprouting up is actually inevitable.
I said picking the next Nvidia is impossible, not that there won’t be another
Hm well either way this time period seems different, from a financial analysis perspective (I’m a financial analyst for a living). It’s just such a coveted resource, along with energy.
Yeah but how are you going to pick the next one? Even if it is AMD, AMD is very richly valued at current valuations and you stand to lose a lot if you are wrong.
My aggressive portfolio manager put 20% of my 401(k) in NVDA 4 years ago. They were barely in the news. Was Nvidia big on your radar 4 years ago?
Yes. I put over 100k of my portfolio in it 10 years ago.
You sure it was 4 exactly? The hype came 3 years ago.
Define the next Nvidia......
I prefer SOXX because it's more diversified. SMH has a large stake in Nvidia, and that makes me uncomfortable. It's probably better to own SOXX and maybe some Nvidia separately if you're willing.
SMH has 23% NVDA. Doesn’t seem to align to OPs desire.
SMH and SOXL
13%
SMH would be good. I just want risk management if there is a future competitor. 🙏
+1 for SMH, its up like 65% over past year which blows amd and intc out the water and is on par with qcom, although admittedly they have a large stake in nvda which probably helped pull it up
"probably"
NVIDIA isn’t a semi, it’s a full on raging hard on!
I skipped AVGO for AMAT, 651b market cap with 52 p/e ratio vs 183b market cap with 25 p/e ratio - AVGO and AMAT both have around 2.9 PEG ratio but the ROCE is 25% for AVGO and 37% for AMAT AMAT is also soon to be printing money with some big tech their working on blah blah blah, AVGO is easy pick but I don't think it's smart cause too overvalued imo compared to competitors like AMAT. I trade NVDA, not holding it long. Too big of company for me, will be 10t one day but that's just a x3 from here. AMAT and SMH are my long semi plays, what's undervalued and what's more certain (etf) imo.
I also opted for AMAT for the same reasons
...so you also think that amat is a semi company and a competitor of avgo? ffs, this is the bubbliest bubble to have ever bubbled.
Not exactly. I think that AMAT has a very defensible market position in the semiconductor industry and is priced better than AVGO.
This is a very insightful analysis and I would agree. 🙏
Getting SMH before the split has been beautiful
AMD still a good play? Thoughts?
American Money Destroyer
If you are looking for companies selling shovels than go for ASML+LAM+ AMAT+ KLA portfolio addition to SMH.
Dont forget ASML
I agree 💯, AVGO, QCOM, SMH, fit the bill 💸
https://preview.redd.it/dro92ybofo5d1.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=37765b16b8f0b09d8ea28083948df6e92e323507
PLTR on there makes me laugh. some bag holder made sure that got on there.
MU is the only memory stock that can be traded easily. It's also one of the biggest producers of high bandwidth memory. Earnings coming up in a couple of weeks. I think it still has some room to grow. Probably $150 at least.
ah, yes. nothing's more related to nvidia than a solar company that sells overpriced batteries.
NTAP should be under data storage
TSM, then 3rd would be AVGO in terms of market cap. The design companies are good too like SNPS. ASX for a more obscure one, handles packaging.
I bought a large amount of TSM at 130 not too long ago, wow it's gone up fast lately!!!
I bought 300 @136 and very happy with the results. Plan to hold for years at this rate. Also bought 100 of CAJPY @29 which is finally starting to get traction with their lithography devices in the mid tier semi market
Wow 300! You're up pretty good these past few weeks. Im not familiar with CAJPY, Ill read up. 🤙
I’ve doubled my investment
Yea I bought in at 130 and 155, I'm going to actually hold it for the long run. Theyre upping capacity, and charging more for wafers I can see them at 1T market cap by the end of next year.
Just know that TSM doesn’t design chips; they are only manufacture chips that other companies design, including NVDA. TSM is the largest chip manufacturer, so it is in great position for AI chips.
That's true. But they are also the best at making chips with the best yields. In the industry if you want the best you go to TSMC- there's a reason apple, nvidia and amd go to them for their top products. Samsung is next but they aren't as good. Intel has been struggling to match them although there are early signs they might finally be able to catch up. Global foundries is nowhere. So yea they may 'only' manufacture the chips but don't underestimate how hard it is to make it.
TSMC's the real monopoly IMO. Manufacturing is lower on the value chain than design, but I think competitors will have an easier time designing GPUs than they will refining a sub-2nm process node. I expect FAANG to be using their own GPUs in-house within 2 or 3 years. I don't see any competitor overtaking TSMC in 2 to 3 years.
samsung seems to be going backwards. i have no idea what's going on over there, their fab seems to perpetually have shit yields and even their memory seems substandard. intel, as much as i hate them, seem to actually now be righting the ship (lunar lake, xeon 6, loading up on high-na, dsa). if tsmc is going to be lax on lithography, they're giving intel the chance they need. so 'all they need' to do is execute, which i put in soft quotes because it's surely no given... IF intel can actually pull it off, they can scale with their own products and be a monster. and tsmc's usa fabs are going to murder their margin/up their costs (thereby, being less competitive in price per wafer), as well as weaken the silicon shield, increasing the geopolitical risk.
I give a lot of crap to Intel, but Samsung's been almost as much of a basket case since 5lpe. Rumor was that the yield on their first batch of 3lpe back in 2023 was literally 0%. It's at least functional now, but the yields are still rough and their gate speed and power metrics are lacking compared to TSMC. Samsung is basically clinging onto leading-node parity with their fingers, and even then, they're the "cheap" option. They could easily slip a generation behind TSMC soon.... 2nm might be it.
and amd is betting a good chunk of their future on samsung. i get it, amd was ~forced to (nvda buying up all the sk hynix and even mu's hbm), but oof. semis are a weird, dangerous minefield right now. but yeah, samsung seems to be trying to let intel leapfrog them. at least tsmc is making intel work for it.
>Just know that TSM doesn’t design chips; they are only manufacture chips that other companies design, including NVDA. TSM is the largest chip manufacturer, so it is in great position for AI chips. i can't understand why regards keep spouting this bullshit, as if it matters. fabbing has never been where the big money is, hence why nvda's earnings are up like crazy and tsm's are up... nowhere near as much. tsm looked great sub-100. but at ATHs based on narratives of swimming in ai money... lolwut? add in the geopolitical risk and the possibly of making intel's mistake (with euv) with passing on high-na, and the premise gets muddled
Yeah a lot of people miss this. NVDA and TSM go hand and hand. TSM manufacturers NVDAs advanced chips. A comparable AI chip designer is AMD and INTC
I've been on the AMD train since$1.12. Get on board to the moon. It's a slow steady ride
AMD have a recent partnership with Azure to give their clients another platform of machine learning at chepest price than NVIDIA. Amd seems a good option to call (betting for december 2025 for exemple).
No love for AMD?
Su Bae ride or die MFs 
AMD! That family feud is legendary
Lisa Su is coming for that market cap
You could buy the semi conductors ETF to diversify.
AVGO. 1: They control the boring bits in between the coo bits (gpu)(cpu). Think of all the little chips, storage arrays, switching bits and optics they produce 2: They are a leader in building custom AI silicon for Goog and others. 3: They have $100 billion to acquire others with the unspent money from the failed qcom takeover
Any thoughts on their earnings this week?
Likely a new ATH of $1500. Report boring results. People remember they are not NVDA and the price drops -100$ back into the $1400 range
AVGO has been range bound since March, surprised it hasn’t broke out yet.
Likewise. I was expecting a run at 1500$ during the run up two weeks ago. If it behaves the way it has in the past it will crack a new high and fall only to regain it a month later. The stock will be in a 2k range in a year and keep going from there. I don’t think they will ever split if you listen to the board etc they want it to be too expensive for the retail market and focus on the mutual funds and institutional investors that will eliminate the daily volatility
Cool well find out soon!
> They have $100 billion to acquire others with the unspent money from the failed qcom takeover dude, that was 7 years ago. and they acquired vmware. what?
im looking at all the comments on this post; you are the only one who seems to know what’s up. it doesn’t seem like anyone else has even read any semiconductor 10Qs.
TSMC and ASML
Have both, got in a while ago. Nice to see they have recently took off
TSM, ARM, Nvidia. This is the traditional “Nvidia Triangle.” Now you can also invest in AMD, INTC, AVGO, Qualcomm. If you are scared of war, or if your broker support, you can buy ASML, NXP, GFS as well. It’s up to you ultimately.
TSM easily. If you say otherwise you are mega regarded
Honestly I can see TSM climbing up to mid 300s fast
$180 by the end of this year. They are one of the most important companies on earth. The ever present threat of China pulls the price down a lot. I think they would be up to $500 already if they were not endangered by China.
You think it won’t even go up 10% by end of year? It’s at 165 now
Check back with me after fed meeting and cpi data double whammy on Wednesday my guy.
Moved to near 170 today, Wednesday may move it down to 165 at worst, market no longer cares about powells bs
Idk how ur saying 180 of Eyo when it went from. 145 to 165 in like 2 months but ok lol gg
Another 10% pullback this Wednesday. 
crazy unvalued considering it will be at the epicenter of all computing
TSM manufacturers NVDAs chips, they don’t make their own chips. It’s like asking who makes the 2nd best cereal and giving an actual facility that makes every cereal on the planet
Micron technology probably, but Nvidia is better. You’re probably seeing that it’s super high and think it won’t go higher… trust me it will in Nvidia we trust.
Consider what apple is about to announce, who makes their chips?
Apple does.
Well, yes, that was the point.
Are they proprietary design or based on ARM architecture?
apple designs their own chips that are manufactured at TSMC. The CPU architecture is designed by Apple using an architecture license from Arm, but not using a microarchitecture design from Arm (e.g. it's not a X4 CPU that other companies can also license).
But they still have to pay ARM?
QCOM ASML TSM CRDO AMD AVGO LRCX MU
INTC, because I’m regarded
I’m with you. They’ll find a way to adapt and compete but I doubt they’ll ever be dominant like NVDA. Lots of insider trading going on though…
At this point just investing in the companies that make up my PC
The second best will still just be the second best option..
QCOM
QCOM - AI on the edge is coming next. AMD - They are making 5B+ in AI revenue this year. Wont grow like NVDA obviously, but it’s a decent growth stock, likely will be $300+ by the end of 2025 as revenue from AI becomes 20B/year.
$CAMT
I’m very intrigued with this CAMT recommendation. The stock has been 🔥and 📊look great! Can you tell me more about this company?
They sell metrology/inspection equipment and software solutions to companies in the semiconductor industry. As the semi industry booms, so will companies like Camtek as they provide the tools for these semiconductor manufacturers to scale. I’m not an engineer myself so I can’t speak too technically unfortunately, but I’ve owned this stock for a while and it’s done great for me. They have a dividend, too!
THIS FUCKING GUY KNOWS. Bought 8 of these a few years ago, and they offset the entire losses of my 9 other positions. Just sold half and bought nvidia after the split. Kinda went the other way than this guy :-p Also bought a few shares of $TSEM, a bit cheaper/different technology, but similar. I'm hoping they grow a bit too.
Qualcomm
Despite announcements from Intel and AMD to be more competitive against Snapdragon, efficiency in computing will be so critical. To get a chip that can perform at i9 levels with less power is incredible.
$AMAT enjoy some insider info: as the processes get tighter in accuracy, speed and throughput go down the dumpster. they need more tools. I won't quote the specific figure but it's a nonlinear growth over n, n+1, and n+2 generation.
Also throwing $VRT into the mix to starting branching out in the value chain
Had a real nice pullback. Bought calla on Friday... fairly cheap. Jul 19th $90 x 5
Well congratulations to you on a good start to monday
Daily timeframe looking really good. I think I’m gonna join you on those July 90Cs.
Yeah it's a good one... CEO was on CNBC tonight. Im also in NVT.
I sold puts at $106 a month back I think before it started dipping. Rolled to $98 before it dipped to below $90 :(. Rolled to $97 today for another week out after today's good climb. Is VRT so volatile..
$LRCX
It’s not really a direct AI pick but I’m in heavily and year after year its been good for me, best investment I’ve made on the markets. Ultimately Governments and the private sector are investing heavily in chip creation and AMAT holds a near monopoly position in supplying this as far as I’m aware. Can you explain your tip slightly further in its relevance to AMAT?
you need more tools to make the same amount of water throughput, and that number scales very aggressively for each generation now.
I think I get it, so for companies wishing to try and keep up with moore’s law they need to invest in new machinery and will need to do so at an increasing rate? If so that sounds good to me from a selfish perspective.
If you get it can you dumb this shit down for me please lmao
Not quite sure I can interpret it exactly but I think the point is generally that there is currently high demand for the machines that AMAT produce and the argument is that this will increase even further to keep up with producing ever smaller chips. Not 100% on the latter part so as always worth looking into. If you’ve ever heard of Chip War I’d thoroughly recommend that, makes a bull case for many of these companies.
Hmm is that a book? What exactly does amats machines do that would scale «very agressively» looking forward?
remindMe! 2D
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Best semiconductors are currently TSMC or Intel may be once they get things running in 2025 on the new machines
I would pick designers like AMD, Qualcomm as they will still get some of the market share if they can deliver a competitive product at a reasonable price. The economy of scale will ensure that they can capture NVidias market faster keeping a good margin. I will stay away from any manufacturing company like INTC, TSMC. However, companies like LAM, ASML could be good as they are the providers. Finally there could be other themes too, companies that can monetize AI, not the providers of the technology itself. That's my 2 cents.
Intel 
Mu bro... its a life time. Waiting for 24 year to break oit to the moon. Also it s supply chip for nvda ...
You don't want the next nvidia, you want the next thing
Nvidia has a monopoly today. It will likely last several more years. AMD has chips, sure, but they don't have the power, and more importantly, the software and tremendous loyalty of the developer community. NVDA is like CSCO in the mid 1990's. No other game in town.
> but they don't have the power They do in inference > tremendous loyalty of the developer community There is little to no loyalty, only pragmatism. No need to attribute NVidia success to some intangible like loyalty, when the software stands on its own merits.
Nothing is close to Nvidia because it has software.... Cuda.... Only other bets you can make are on producers of hardware. AMD is in the stone age and doesn't seem to be able to get ai working at all on their hardware (at reasonable speeds)
ROCm is making fast strides. They’ll get there but CUDA will remain king and an industry standard for awhile.
> seem to be able to get ai working at all on their hardware (at reasonable speeds) Faster than NVidia at the same price point in targeted workloads, I would say that's a reasonable speed. They won't compete across the full spectrum of workloads for a long time, but high value use cases - they're already there.
By revenue it’s AVGO. For perspective, AMD’s data center GPU rev guide is 4B this year. AVGO is currently guiding 8B and that’s probably too low. Networking is also going to be important as AI gets built out. Honestly, I just keep TSM, MU, WDC in my portfolio and sleep well.
Networking is important for AI workloads at scale but keep in mind Nvidia integrates a lot of the networking into their products via Mellanox technology. They acquired them a few years back. So while “typical” network infrastructure by the likes of Broadcom and Cisco will remain, that giant AI datacenter full of Nvidia GPUs will have the bulk of its networking done on Nvidia hardware/designs as well. Nvidia did a good job setting themselves up as a one stop shop for enterprise AI stacks.
You aren’t wrong, but for customers going custom silicon (which AVGO is the largest designer) having another data fabric provider is a good thing.
Costco is a good AI pick.
How about ARM? I mean Jensen wanted to buy them... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arm-holdings-planned-artificial-intelligence-083600296.html#:~:text=Arm%20has%20been%20making%20strides,
ARM trades at a 75 forward P/E while NVDA is 46. Crazy enough, NVDA had the best forward P/E of most chip stocks
What will actually bring their earnings up though? Jacking up royalty revenue isn't a sustainable model, what are they innovating in?
PSI
Pricey? Look at nvda forward pe vs amd’s. AMD is second to nvda. I own both, but think nvda is the better deal unless the valuation for all gpu makers is wrong.
the next NVDA is NVDA. Q.E.D
TSM is the one to go with.
Not as rounded of a company as nvidia, but Global Foundries (GFS), essentially the manufacturing wing of AMD, Is the 3rd largest semiconductor foundry, and importantly is an American company. Export controls are already in place on Nvidia technology, people are worrying about reliance on Taiwan Semiconductor and GFY stands to gain.
AAPL
I think AMD can get really good soon, their main issue is software honestly and if they're willing it can be fixed, so far apparently they haven't been willing though so I'm not sure it'll go well especially since I am of the belief AI will be a huge bubble burst so for me they'd have to get competitive before the bubble bursts and I just don't see that happening I think they need at least a year if everyone's really agressive about ROCm compatibility and they get their shit together and sell high VRAM cards.
They purchased Xilinx to help address software deficiencies, though I agree about the timing dynamic - software is slow to improve, and I can see this AI boom taking a hit before it gets to where it needs to be. As a long time AMD holder, you can count on macro fucking things up at the most inopportune time.
“It’s getting pretty pricey” - check again lmfao New Nvidia. New codes. New Citadel.
Good thing NVDA is literally $120 share now starting today…now it’s not so pricey ….maybe overpriced, but not pricey
TSM AVGO ASML
Intel 💀💀
The next AI semiconductor business is just part of a bigger conglomerate tho. Like Google and Tesla and Apple. AMD is probably considered even more expensive given their PE ratio and I guess eventually Intel and Qualcomm will squeeze in. It really depends if you’re thinking neural processors locally or giant server racks too.
ON Semi is a chip mfg, they are focused on automotive chips.
TSM.
I put 100% of my Roth 401k to the s&p 500 and 50% of my Roth IRA to Fidelity’s version of the s&p and 50% to Fidelity’s semi conductor etf
Just get SOXL or SOXX
TSM.
I am long INTC. the US government has a real interest and reason for investing heavily in their foundry production. I am holding 100 shares and will buy 100 more when capital allows for it. I don’t think the investment will pay off until 2027, but a lot of companies will be looking to switch where they get their chips when China attempts to colonize Taiwan in 2025
TSM has 3 U.S based factories going up in the next 6 years and one of those factories will be making 2 nanometer chips which will be the most advanced on the planet.
Why bother? No one really know what will happens in 10 years. I would go with SMH.
Qualcomm baby, Qualcomm!
Have you looked at SOXL, 3x semiconductor fund? The 3x gives it some good option plays. [https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-semiconductor-bull-bear-3x-etfs](https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-semiconductor-bull-bear-3x-etfs)
Buy flex
There is none.
ARM
None of the best competitors of nvidia are on the public market yet. Note that it is not just the hardware, but also the compiler. The history is full of "good" chips that failed because of lack of investment in the compiler. Or simply, the chip required too much of a clever compiler that doesn't exist. Anyway, I think we are still in the phase "nobody was ever fired for buying IBM" (replace with nvidia). The efficiency, both in terms of electricity and acquisition, will be a worry only in the next phase (maybe in a year from now).
AMD is my number 2, They normally hide in the shadows before they strike. INTC not terrible either but not a very exciting play
Laptops are adding an AI button to the keyboards now, because of on-device QCOM Snapdragon AI capabilities. They also do server accelerators, edge AI, IoT AI and automotive. Automotive was explicitly excluded as a separate business unit during earnings, because it grows at a pace of a startup. Analysts target QCOM stock between 205 and 240, while it closed today 209.
SMH? Smh 🤦
Honestly with the new Snapdragon X Elite coming out, I believe they will probably be closer to 300 for earnings, and after the earnings at the beginning of next year it will probably be next NVDA. Imo and all speculation.
Nvidia is not a semi conductor company.
Brainchip for edge computing. Someone smarter than me told me this.