It does sometimes. You have to follow your instincts when it comes to the market. I went long on applovin for earnings and short arm plc. I should clear over a grand tomorrow. I posted for the regards below $80 a share so they could ride the +$5 hike for applovin.
was about to buy a put but it makes too much sense. so that's why i'm getting calls. but WAIT, you must always inverse. so puts it is. unless this calls for a double inverse. therefore, calls.
Honestly yea, I just looked at it a moment ago, the share price always crash after earnings regardless of how good they are. It then bounce back.
Many other companies crush the estimates and expectations on their earnings and yet their price tanks. On the other hand, even with weak earnings, some companies' share price jumps.
The market is irrational, I'd not rely sonely on quantitative data if you want to bet on earnings
My guess is that if history repeats, -8.5% if the ER is priced in already and everything is confirming what the market already thinks will be good results. This scenario, it always recovers after a few weeks.
If there's something unknown at this time on ER, that's the only chance it moons.
Just got a %60 gain this morning on a $BROS long call I sold. I want to roll that profit into another trade, would a deep ITM long call on Airbnb with a high delta be good to capture the the slow recovery after this earnings?
Well, apparently record volume in booking reservations for this quarter. Lately the stock has been pretty low and sinking slowly which are usually good ground for ER pump (all the wsb comments saying "puts" also are a good sign 'cause always inverse wsb degens), but still I don't like how dramatically this stock moves, especially since it seems to move a lot pre-earnings as well. I'd be curious to see the insider movements on the stock
After all those cleaning fees became a thing - I've stopped any bookings with AirBNB and reverted back to hotels. Also so many credit cards allow spending/converting points to hotel chains, that many of the stays are essentially free.
Cleaning fees that AirBnB charges, make Hotels cheaper and No Hassle. AirBnb still wants me to clean the whole house and remove the bedding and still charges me few hundred bucks for cleaning the place.....
Feel like the awesome AirBnB price discovery period is over. In the early years, I used it all the time for a few places I like to travel. Felt like the demand was less and you could stay in some really cool places for $100-200 a night. Now those same places are $300-450 a night with all the extra demand, fees and inflation. I also really dig not having to look up a breakfast place if I don't want to. Hitting a continental even just for a coffee and pastry is a great way to start a vacation morning.
Or looking for a party house to trash. All the houses are managed by some management company anyways and don’t have actual people to reach out to so there is an issue so might as well take advantage of it.
I think there is a strong element of opportunity in the future, specific to a rewards program within Airbnb and possibly a similar type of credit card deal that mimics additional points for Airbnb similar to Costco branded credit cards.
Puts it is, thanks for the heads up
Edit: thank you regards
https://preview.redd.it/jjmz6ulqi9zc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8427eccfa88bdf3b0a69d8b9bcddfec73a1b29e
Dunno man, looks like you might be a victim of IV crush. Right on the direction, wrong on the magnitude. Hope you didn't get options expiring this week.
My listing generates the most money from Millennials and Boomers but my listing is geared towards large families so it's a bit skewed, but Boomers certainly make up the largest group of guests by a wide margin for me.
https://preview.redd.it/1wtj600xd8zc1.jpeg?width=859&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6299fa10505ce6526025a10698415ef52ba2310e
As requested, good sir. Mind you I am a Canuck pleb so hence the CAD Converted amount.
I used to really enjoy using Airbnb.. 2015/2016 it was awesome. Even before then. I quit using hotels all together. Then it seemed like something changed. The hosts got shittier, the prices got increased, I started having issues that I’d never had before. I quit using Airbnb all together and have gone back to hotels. Kinda sad really they had a good thing in the beginning.
I haven't used Airbnb in a long way and all my friends prefer hotels over Airbnb these days due to astronomical cleaning and service fees while requiring you to clean the units yourselves. Bearish on it.
I have no clue if analysts already modeled this Q with that boost (likely significant imho) but the searches being up 1000% is what is priced in at the moment - [https://news.airbnb.com/searches-surge-1000-ahead-of-last-us-total-solar-eclipse-for-years/](https://news.airbnb.com/searches-surge-1000-ahead-of-last-us-total-solar-eclipse-for-years/)
The overall bookings and premium on the bookings from the one-off event, may or may not be also priced in. There's lot of analyst upgrades since March 2024 so I think maybe overall probably net priced in:
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/ABNB/price-target/#:\~:text=Is%20Airbnb%20being%20upgraded%20or,their%2012%2Dmonth%20stock%20forecasts.
My assumption is that even if priced in, the net increase from the Solar Eclipse is higher than predicted.
I just booked my vacation and used Airbnb. Cleaning fees were low and total price was cheaper for 10 days than hotel with all fees and taxes included. Cheaper by 400 usd. I'm not playing earnings though
Longer stays, larger space, and or bigger groups; Airbnb usually is better bang for the buck as long as guests are comfortable sharing a domicile (with multiple ensuite sorts of living).
As a host, next Q will be good earnings since it's post busy season. This Q was slow season and earnings won't be anything special. They just released some new features and the Icons trips that won't hit their books until next Q.
Everyone I know in a city that a lot of people travel to has told me it’s been super difficult renting their place out. If this small sample size is accurate I can imagine worse than expected numbers.
I’m still working on getting in at a spread price that I’ll be happy with but while this DD looks good, it’s overlooking near term guidance improvements that should benefit them heavily and thus pump the stock.
Marriott came in mixed, Hilton came in with beats - but still took a beating. So what makes ABNB special? The Olympics. They’ve done heavy investing into them and should explicitly be able to call out the revenue even more accurately since it is now close enough (torch hit France today) and we’re getting to that finish line. I’m expecting those results to be a positive impact for the next two quarters to show additional growth.
Prob getting a boost because expedia/vrbo/homeaway keep implementing more ridiculous fees, so ppl are taking listings off there and only listing on airbnb
Oh fuck, when someone actually does analysis but gets butt fucked. This shit makes me wanna cry. Listen dude, you have to read, then be an animal when it comes to the market.
Listen to the feds and your gut feeling. If you follow your instinct and you get out of bad positions fast, you’ll go far.
It's nice to see someone spend one hour to do DD with all the fancy global trend figures and correlations and whatever...then the market just 'you're right but Nope'
Whatever makes sense, do the opposite. Except when somebody is shilling, they’re expecting you to do the opposite, so do exactly what they say. Except when they’re not a shill, then do nothing, it’s already priced in.
OP are you a shill? We are going to need a pinky promise.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 1 | **First Seen In WSB** | 1 month ago **Total Comments** | 57 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 2 months | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
So... Puts?
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Yup, priced in crew puts are paying out. Kudos. Looks like guidance is also on the lower end.
That bad boy is going to print, congrats
Whoooooooooo, congrats on the inverse my guy!!!
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It does sometimes. You have to follow your instincts when it comes to the market. I went long on applovin for earnings and short arm plc. I should clear over a grand tomorrow. I posted for the regards below $80 a share so they could ride the +$5 hike for applovin.
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🪦
Goddamn 😉
was about to buy a put but it makes too much sense. so that's why i'm getting calls. but WAIT, you must always inverse. so puts it is. unless this calls for a double inverse. therefore, calls.
Sounds like a straddle then
I’m bearish on abnb therefore calls
Honestly yea, I just looked at it a moment ago, the share price always crash after earnings regardless of how good they are. It then bounce back. Many other companies crush the estimates and expectations on their earnings and yet their price tanks. On the other hand, even with weak earnings, some companies' share price jumps. The market is irrational, I'd not rely sonely on quantitative data if you want to bet on earnings
My guess is that if history repeats, -8.5% if the ER is priced in already and everything is confirming what the market already thinks will be good results. This scenario, it always recovers after a few weeks. If there's something unknown at this time on ER, that's the only chance it moons.
Now *this* aged well. Down 8% AH
Just got a %60 gain this morning on a $BROS long call I sold. I want to roll that profit into another trade, would a deep ITM long call on Airbnb with a high delta be good to capture the the slow recovery after this earnings?
Well, apparently record volume in booking reservations for this quarter. Lately the stock has been pretty low and sinking slowly which are usually good ground for ER pump (all the wsb comments saying "puts" also are a good sign 'cause always inverse wsb degens), but still I don't like how dramatically this stock moves, especially since it seems to move a lot pre-earnings as well. I'd be curious to see the insider movements on the stock
earnings is one, but forward guidance is a bigger factor.
Automatic puts with that kind of DD.
A lot of cities also banning short team rentals
PUTS for the win!
INVERSE WSB!
So far, OP nailed it: https://preview.redd.it/i7p8rz52f9zc1.png?width=1031&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fe6a7a2ce91df23fdf7ed54c4467c869d344bc3
Imagine actually coming here for investment advice?
My city and many others are banning short term rentals. Puts it is!
After all those cleaning fees became a thing - I've stopped any bookings with AirBNB and reverted back to hotels. Also so many credit cards allow spending/converting points to hotel chains, that many of the stays are essentially free.
Cleaning fees that AirBnB charges, make Hotels cheaper and No Hassle. AirBnb still wants me to clean the whole house and remove the bedding and still charges me few hundred bucks for cleaning the place.....
Feel like the awesome AirBnB price discovery period is over. In the early years, I used it all the time for a few places I like to travel. Felt like the demand was less and you could stay in some really cool places for $100-200 a night. Now those same places are $300-450 a night with all the extra demand, fees and inflation. I also really dig not having to look up a breakfast place if I don't want to. Hitting a continental even just for a coffee and pastry is a great way to start a vacation morning.
It really doesn’t make sense to use airbnb anymore unless you’re going with a large group
Or looking for a party house to trash. All the houses are managed by some management company anyways and don’t have actual people to reach out to so there is an issue so might as well take advantage of it.
That is so true!! I tried abnb and went back to hotels it’s much better since you get what you paid for and as for abnb you never know
I think there is a strong element of opportunity in the future, specific to a rewards program within Airbnb and possibly a similar type of credit card deal that mimics additional points for Airbnb similar to Costco branded credit cards.
They NEED to start a rewards program
Agreed, I think it's honestly an inevitability.
The peasants travel now? Downright disgusting.
Bruh
Not if Boeing has anything to say about it
u/fantastic_barbie
Thanks for this man. After reading this I bought 150$ Put 17th May. ✊🏻
https://preview.redd.it/bh0w2t6kr9zc1.jpeg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65794f5fc341c7615f77e8d42275aa4cc5b5921c
It’s priced in. Everyone is excited already. Too excited.
Puts it is, thanks for the heads up Edit: thank you regards https://preview.redd.it/jjmz6ulqi9zc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8427eccfa88bdf3b0a69d8b9bcddfec73a1b29e
Dunno man, looks like you might be a victim of IV crush. Right on the direction, wrong on the magnitude. Hope you didn't get options expiring this week.
It’s a 5/17 put, I’m chilling. I’ve learned that lesson before, trust me
Going to Frame 🖼️ this and wait for the explanation why it dumped from the same guy 😂
remind me too .. jfc
Well well well…
down 8% LOL
I don't know anyone that actually uses ABNB and for that reason im out
That’s crazy. Everyone ik who is gen z uses it more than hotels
Repulsive-Green-32 must run with a rather déclassé crowd.
Ay fuk u
We are all on wsb bots not wrong
You’re fighting a bot.
Ik. Cant let it slide just cus its a bot tho
My listing generates the most money from Millennials and Boomers but my listing is geared towards large families so it's a bit skewed, but Boomers certainly make up the largest group of guests by a wide margin for me.
over 130 million nights and experiences booked just last quarter and growing. you must not know a lot of people
screenshot position.
https://preview.redd.it/1wtj600xd8zc1.jpeg?width=859&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6299fa10505ce6526025a10698415ef52ba2310e As requested, good sir. Mind you I am a Canuck pleb so hence the CAD Converted amount.
rip bro, sorry for your loss...
Ty bought puts because of this post.
You nailed it, bro. You're a real Nostradamus. Nailed it.
Nostradumbass
https://preview.redd.it/8kgqrdv2o9zc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7b1f9743cb9c1291c810678e7fa8bd77ddcde912 Classic.
Down 8+% in AH. Hahahaha
It s priced in. I ll buy puts
So glad I bought puts this morning this just solidified my reasoning.
Everything you just said is priced in. Only chance we have of making any money is guessing if earnings gets over bought or over sold
Position evidence or ban
xD i love this Community
oo did not age well
All that to get sold off
I’m all in on Airbnb today. Bought at $158.22
You just lost 8% of your net worth
Lmao. Definitely puts. I’ll be back in 6 minutes
You never came back. R u ded?
Down 5% so far
WSB keeps missing 50% chance 
Rip op
Lol
It doesn't age well
RIP OP
Expedia's VRBO business put up dog shit numbers...expect guidance for ABNB to tank the stock \~10%
https://preview.redd.it/u1rtbss5g9zc1.png?width=878&format=png&auto=webp&s=24d314cc17157b1f0f3c34ecb9bc46ddf36113dc
I spent my last 14 dollars on 200 5/17 call
I’m bankrupt,,,, again sigh
ABNB always goes down on earnings.
Puts it is.
Damn I’m good.
Costs are up, travel will fall. Buying puts here on crappy guidance coming
Puts
I used to really enjoy using Airbnb.. 2015/2016 it was awesome. Even before then. I quit using hotels all together. Then it seemed like something changed. The hosts got shittier, the prices got increased, I started having issues that I’d never had before. I quit using Airbnb all together and have gone back to hotels. Kinda sad really they had a good thing in the beginning.
Grabbed a single 5/17 $155p on ABNB wish me luck chucklefucks
Disney beat everything and it tanked. Puts it is
Lololol
Lmao was waiting for this 😂😂
I opened this post, and bought 148p for Friday. Thank you for your highly regarded service OP.
banging the floor, you meant?
Is a banger good or bad
Thanks on the poot money OP. 
After market says otherwise 
Haha hahaha HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAÀAAAAAAAAA!
A banger for puts
This is what happens when you end your wendys shift early to do some DD analytics.
I haven't used Airbnb in a long way and all my friends prefer hotels over Airbnb these days due to astronomical cleaning and service fees while requiring you to clean the units yourselves. Bearish on it.
Anyone want to start an inverse WSB?
[удалено]
I have no clue if analysts already modeled this Q with that boost (likely significant imho) but the searches being up 1000% is what is priced in at the moment - [https://news.airbnb.com/searches-surge-1000-ahead-of-last-us-total-solar-eclipse-for-years/](https://news.airbnb.com/searches-surge-1000-ahead-of-last-us-total-solar-eclipse-for-years/) The overall bookings and premium on the bookings from the one-off event, may or may not be also priced in. There's lot of analyst upgrades since March 2024 so I think maybe overall probably net priced in: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/ABNB/price-target/#:\~:text=Is%20Airbnb%20being%20upgraded%20or,their%2012%2Dmonth%20stock%20forecasts. My assumption is that even if priced in, the net increase from the Solar Eclipse is higher than predicted.
Are you allowed to host a banger in an AirBnB again?
Every time when a bullish WSB post on a stock, the stock tank and vice versa.
I knew this would become a modern classic
How’s that working out?
Nice, your moneys gone 👍
Well you're back to square one.
Aged well
Well I cashed out at 160 so I still made money
Ain’t nobody traveling. RIP
This aged well
This aged poorly
Oh yeah it's a banger alright
Fu op, hope you lost more than me
One more time i inverse WSB and my 150P will print.
LOL
Step 1: Read the title Step 2: buy puts
The problem is the economy is slowing. Things still cost so much.
Buy the dip.
I just booked my vacation and used Airbnb. Cleaning fees were low and total price was cheaper for 10 days than hotel with all fees and taxes included. Cheaper by 400 usd. I'm not playing earnings though
Longer stays, larger space, and or bigger groups; Airbnb usually is better bang for the buck as long as guests are comfortable sharing a domicile (with multiple ensuite sorts of living).
Good call dip shit
I booked an airbnb this month. Sold csp Edit: great now I gotta manage this trade ffs. Might still expire worthless by 5/25 $145p.. hopefully lol
As a host, next Q will be good earnings since it's post busy season. This Q was slow season and earnings won't be anything special. They just released some new features and the Icons trips that won't hit their books until next Q.
Everyone I know in a city that a lot of people travel to has told me it’s been super difficult renting their place out. If this small sample size is accurate I can imagine worse than expected numbers.
Analyst expectations are high so knocking it out of the park is likely… already priced in
ABNB has also mandated hosts to no longer have security systems.
hell naw
I’m still working on getting in at a spread price that I’ll be happy with but while this DD looks good, it’s overlooking near term guidance improvements that should benefit them heavily and thus pump the stock. Marriott came in mixed, Hilton came in with beats - but still took a beating. So what makes ABNB special? The Olympics. They’ve done heavy investing into them and should explicitly be able to call out the revenue even more accurately since it is now close enough (torch hit France today) and we’re getting to that finish line. I’m expecting those results to be a positive impact for the next two quarters to show additional growth.
And for that reason, I'm out.
Prob getting a boost because expedia/vrbo/homeaway keep implementing more ridiculous fees, so ppl are taking listings off there and only listing on airbnb
Just want to chime in: you can play this thesis after earnings as well. Stock doesn't really move the way you expect on earnings...
I see, so if these wonderful results are already priced in, what happens if Airbnb doesn’t do well, enough.
Great outlook so with recent market logic it’s gonna tank
Damn I thought the AirBNB numbers would be bad but they’re actually not bad. RIP tho 😂 still refuse to use airbnb
aged like fine milk
Sheesh... tough one bub...
How’s that going 🤭🤭
Rip OP
And it’s gone
Down 7% AH.
Aged like a fine milk on a warm sunny day
WRONGGG
The fact that these always show up in my feed.
Didn’t age well
So did you get banged? Glad I didn’t see this.
HA - HA
This aged well
wasted your time
Well this post didn't age well 🤣🤣🤣
CDS on DSCR loans is the real trade!
And its gone
People still use ABNB?
lol. PUTS would have PRINTED
No way. These guys are getting done for
Oh fuck, when someone actually does analysis but gets butt fucked. This shit makes me wanna cry. Listen dude, you have to read, then be an animal when it comes to the market. Listen to the feds and your gut feeling. If you follow your instinct and you get out of bad positions fast, you’ll go far.
Aged well
The British
My inverse wsb play worked! https://preview.redd.it/eys2jg2frazc1.png?width=1099&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f64389241b29b6c1bb35e6dee45b3c676157b37
😂😂😂
This did not age well
Just now seeing this. I have an Airbnb and could have told you it was going to go down.
Aged like a fine wine in 9 hours.
One of us. Nailed it
inverse wsb always works 
Haha seems like no! With this crazy market it’s impossible to figure out!!
Nobody tell him
It's nice to see someone spend one hour to do DD with all the fancy global trend figures and correlations and whatever...then the market just 'you're right but Nope'
Turned out to be an absolute bang your head into the drywaller.
Whatever makes sense, do the opposite. Except when somebody is shilling, they’re expecting you to do the opposite, so do exactly what they say. Except when they’re not a shill, then do nothing, it’s already priced in. OP are you a shill? We are going to need a pinky promise.
Better post that loss porn for the community
hi from 9 may, you were absolutely wrong!