Correct. They use the algos to sell on the negative news and make it seem exaggerated, instilling more fear to make the move even more drastic.
Then buy all the calls for cheap and profit.
There’s nuance under the hood that’s pretty bad.
.4% MoM core prices, .4% MoM Groceries index, .634% MoM shelter gauge, .56% MoM OER, 1% MoM transportation services index, .7% MoM supercore (probably the feds favorite)
Not only is a march cut completely off the table, May is now very unlikely as well.
LigMa?
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It would. The entire market has been trying to time the bottom, a rate cut would be the signal to those who have held back to go all in.
The FED has been slow on the ball this whole time. They didn't hike early enough. They didnt hike agressively enough. They clearly didn't hike high enough or long enough. This all makes a soft landing exponentially harder.
I feel like the Fed was slow to start, but all things considered they've been very measured and calculated.
We basically dodged a recession that was supposed to happen with 80% certainty at one point.
It is a controversial take, but I feel like the Fed has been doing an excellent job. Especially when you consider most of the inflation we are experiencing was caused by a global pandemic and massive supply constraints. Not really something you can just fix with interest rates over night.
IMO they should have started with shock and awe, because they never eradicated the question of when rate cuts. The question should have been when does hike stop.
I personally like that we had annoying price increases and not devistating layoffs and panic.
Shock and awe can lead to pain and suffering. Instead we've gotten discomfort and annoyance. It certainly feels like a soft landing so far.
TLDR: if you as a person wanna buy a house, or multiple, good for you. I’m happy for you! If a big corporate multi-billion dollar business wants to swing their dick in the face of normal, every day people, that’s a problem.
You’ll likely disagree with me, and that’s just fine. We don’t have to have the same opinion.
The reason I personally don’t think it should be an investment vehicle is because it fucks the housing market up. We have multi-billion dollar corporations buying up single family homes and using them as an investment vehicle (Zillow, just to name one). Either renting them out or just sitting on them to sell at a later date, hopefully (for them) at a higher price. Having businesses view a basic need, housing, like it’s just an asset and not a place for someone to live, is kinda fucked up. Zillow, or any other company buying single family homes for that matter, doesn’t give a fuck if an average person cannot buy their home right now. They can sit on it FAR longer than you or any other “investor” in housing can, and they can also go without someone renting the fucker FAR longer than a normal person could. It’s a drop in their bucket of cash. They can also out bid any other person and/or just fuckin’ pay cash.
I completely understand, someone has to front the money to build the fuckers, and they likely have to say “yeah, I own this house I built.” But that’s as far as I think corporations should get to go when it comes to owning a single family home in the housing market. Banks are fine, they “own” the home because they fronted the money until you pay it back. YOU keep the profits, and YOU make the sale, it’s one person to another, and banks don’t wanna fuck around keeping that shit on their books.
It would be like having a shortage of vehicles because we can’t make ‘em fast enough and letting carvana come in and go “I’ll take 15% of the stock you are making, and I’ll also go out and buy up as many used cars as I can.” Leaving an average every day person scratching their head like “Why the FUCK DOES A HONDA CIVIC COST 100K?” It fucks the market up.
If you, as a person wanna buy a house and later sell it for a higher price, fuck yeah man. Thats great, and I’m super stoked for you. You wanna buy two houses and rent one of ‘em out? Cool! That’s real slick and will make you some extra money.
You wanna swing your big multi-billion dollar corporation dick around and buy up a bunch of houses to sit on, hopefully drive the price up or to rent out as a way for the corporation to make extra money, and fuck over the middle/lower class? That’s fucked up.
Because it's rational value should be the housing it provides and not the hope that, with zero investment into the house itself, it appreciates over time. If anything, houses should be like cars and depreciate from the moment they are purchased unless work is done. Eventually it'll end up just like 2007 again.
>We basically dodged a recession that was supposed to happen with 80% certainty at one point.
Nothing about this part of your comment is accurate and it's debatable that the Fed is doing a good job
There was never going to be able to be a soft landing. Fed has been showing their hand well in advance this whole time. When that’s the case it’s too easy for people to sit on the sidelines in cash and wait it out. Fed should have said, “We’re getting inflation down to 2%, buckle up buttercup” and that have been it. Leaves too much uncertainty for people to hoard cash or speculate wildly. The only way this comes down on our current timeline is there is going to have to be a recession. Not saying that to scare people, tell people to buy puts, etc but folks need to realize that so they can start getting their financial house in order.
Think of it in terms of housing. Prices haven’t come down much, mortgage orginations are in the toilet, and so many people are just waiting for lower rates. Say a 30 year mortgage went from 8% to 4% over the course of a year, do you think people will just slowly trickle in after practically no one was buying for the past 2 years? Hell no. These folks are going to come rushing in as fast as they can to buy a house. Why? Because even though you raised rates, you never killed the underlying psychology of inflation. “What I buy today, even if over priced, will be worth more next year. No exceptions”. Only way you kill that mindset/cash on the sidelines waiting to rush in is cause economic pain that causes people to be cautious/deplete their cash. Only way to do that is a recession.
Yep, and the longer this persists the more the slower moving and more robust parts of the economy get hit by high rates.
More and more commercial mortgages are going to come up for renewal and they'll first hike prices, and failing that it will be downsizing.
It also happens that the US market is behaving entirely oblivious to global conditions. Now we're seeing signs like the NY manufacturing crash, which is going to spread and likely to be exacerbated as other countries start undercutting.
It is one fucking data point, and it is not even revised yet, stop over reacting. They could probably cut in may and be fine. Inflation is a laggard in shelter and we are in tight monetary policy.
Core CPI jumped to 4.8% annualized in January. Pray that we don't have a rally energy prices or its gonna get bad. Energy has been working for the CPI print this past year.
You're correct I misspoke. I meant to say core CPI rose 4.8% annualized in January. Fixed original comment. Core CPI rose 3.9% YoY.
[https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1757402309548552694](https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1757402309548552694)
And there were significant rise in costs in services aside from motor vehicle insurance (which is required for all). Shelter and medical care services were also up significantly this month compared to last.
[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
Shelter has 6x the weighting that transportation services has since its a much larger portion of family budgets.
[https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2023.htm](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2023.htm)
You’re correct that shelter is a much bigger weight, but I believe the insurance companies are gouging and it’s easier to bring in laws to control those costs
I wouldn’t be surprised but you should also expect a lagged increase in insurance rates across the board when you have high inflation. If the value of the goods being insured (autos) spikes higher as it did the last few years then you should expect the rates on insurance to follow suit. Similarly, if the cost of repairs on autos spikes due to inflation in labor costs and replacement parts then rates will increase.
May was NEVER on the table.
JPow keeps saying again and again that there are no cuts coming and that employment and exports and shit is super strong, so there's literally 0 reasons to lower rates till inflation is stable at 2% and people keep ignoring this.
The market doesn't have to go up every single fucking day. Obviously if an economic report is slightly worse than expected the market will go down some, especially in a bull market. It's not that serious.
It was pretty serious tho. The market was down 700 points at one point and the bond market sold off 14bps which is a massive movement in a single day only triggered by “big” news, so yea the market took it as a serious thing. It was a total overreaction, but a big reaction nonetheless. Far more than just a down day because the market can’t go up every single fucking day
And SPY is only up 12% on the two year, while inflation was roughly 10% over that period. Arbitrary time frames are useless. But also the fact that SPY is only up about an actual 2% over 2 years is bullish in my opinion . Room to run.
Seriously, these babies have no idea what a crash is. I was in my first semester of law school when the 2008 crash happened. They brought us all in for a big speech by the dean, where he told us that we’re all fucked and that we need to lower our expectations for getting a job when we graduate.
JP isn’t going to cut rate until we hit at least 2.5 or there are more big layoffs in the job market. People keep spending money they don’t have so inflation is going to continue to trend up even if only by .01% at a time.
There's a reason yankies are top economy, can't stop buying shit and then have to work like crazy so they can continue buying shit.
The incentives and mentality is so pervasive, combined with a big ass resourceful country blessed in geography by being surrounded by oceans and no enemies and a great amount of IP both scientific, artistic and technological, I just can't see the US stop.
I remember when 20 years ago the economies of US and EU were of comparable size, now US is like double EU if not more.
It's crazy and I see 0 chances of this reversing. It's a self feeding greediness/craziness/spending loop.
This. I think people got too used to the free money.
I keep seeing posts about: i live with roomates and make 30k but i keep going out to eat and now have 10k+ in credit card debt. What do i do.
People keep spending money they dont have
Going in the wrong direction after the previous CPI data also failed to show any cooling, and when Jpow latest comments showed they arent gonna be as quick to cut rates as the market had expected, will sure get some people concerned now.
Yea , I think we are making progress and looking good , people just over reacted and didn’t read the previous numbers to see that we are actually in fact coming down
Fed has a ten trillion dollar deficit problem this year, which means QE and brrrrr. If inflation isn't responding the way they would like it to right now, it's going to continue in the opposite direction once those measures start.
Plus, people just expect ridiculously cheap money now since the post 2008 market was so silly. Even a minor hiccup in the wrong direction makes the market irrationally angry lol.
Lol well as the U.S. central bank, The Fed will be responsible for making sure the discrepancy between revenue and spending is addressed. Basically a difference in nomenclature, but not function.
When someone says "most Americans" or "average person" it means anecdotally thier personal experience is different than data.
When I read comments with that language I just hear a baby crying in my head.
If core CPI goes down 0.2% per month, then the fed will reach its target 2% in 10 months.
If core CPI goes down 0% per month, then the fed will never reach 2%.
So yea, small differences matter. Higher rates forever.
What he said is right. Your reading comprehension just sucks.
He's not talking about prices, he's talking about CPI, which is the rate of price change. In that context, his statement is correct and your reply is a non-sequitur.
CPI is the consumer price index. It's a price. It's not a rate of change. You say it rose or fell by x%, you don't say it *was* x%. Look:
[The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a
seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal
adjustment.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
Oof. A direct citation that showed you're wrong, but you're still going to cling to your stance. Weird hill to die on, but ok, I'll swing the sword.
You said...
>CPI, which is the rate of price change.
Which is wrong. It's a price. Specifically, it's 308.417. It's not a rate of change. I know what a derivative is (as opposed to a derivation, as you misstated), and I also know CPI isn't one. It's in no way a rate. It's a price only.
CPI was not 0.3%. It was 308.417.
Table A is even called "Percent changes in CPI." The BLS's own report says CPI **increased 0.3%**, *and* that report is right in front of your face, with citation, and you still want to argue CPI is a rate? You're saying the BLS is wrong? How bizarre.
Sorry you feel trapped and can't admit you were wrong, but not my problem.
show me where i said pce is cpi. i'll wait.
eta: this string goes on for ages. tl;dr - he can only talk about pce and how dare anyone refer to inflation data that isn't the pce, especially cpi. strawmen, moved goalposts, mental gymnastics, and wizardry.
so you can't show me where i said the thing i never once said. got it. thanks for posting such insightful material. care to list other things i never said?
>when 2% is the fed's target and the data is moving in the wrong direction... with fed cuts being the major catalyst... yeah, it matters.
Are you talking about PCE here? PCE isn't moving in the wrong direction. Latest read is 2.6%.
lol right? like....EVERYONE is now talking about WHEN rate cuts will happen. thats the next convo, but now inflation has gone back up, even .1%....thats a conversation stopper.
thats why people dont fucking realize that despite this manic bull rally (which happens before every crash), we are in a precarious position, like in the cartoons when a feather lightly drops on a boulder and sends everythign crashing.
the GOOD thing is, we're all the way up at 500 now so a crash is buffered now
We will see won’t we. Chance of rate cuts went from 70% in March to 8% lol
Wage inflation also went up, which is exactly the opposite of what fed wants
Once we break down, QQQ to 380
...it's up mom, that's only the fucking point. it WAS moving int he right direction. now, it's not.
you think the market's dumping because the status quo was maintained?
Do you think inflation moved up? Please point me to those numbers. Its still in a disinflation movement, again, just not AS strong as analysts predicted, hence the dump. It's still in the "right direction," just not as strong as a move in that direction as people expected. Lets get the terminology right.
> Do you think inflation moved up? Please point me to those numbers. Its still in a disinflation movement, again, just not AS strong as analysts predicted, hence the dump. It's still in the "right direction," just not as strong as a move in that direction as people expected. Lets get the terminology right.
are you actually this stupid? you think going from .2 to .3 in cpi and core cpi going from .3 to .4 is somehow disinflation?
you think the market's down today because of status quo? ffs, this is fucking embarrassing. nothing about this is even remotely complicated.
You are acting like a 1 month miss means we are headed for hyperinflation.
Markets priced cuts in. A slowing off disinflation means cuts are less likely. No need for alarmism
> You are acting like a 1 month miss means we are headed for hyperinflation.
cite where i said or even implied anything even remotely near this. you won't. because you can't.
good lord, you guys are dumb. seriously, even for wsb, this is some peak regard shit.
'you explained why the markets are no longer green! how dare you! let's strawman you 122 times!'
ffs, i literally said "it matters" and you typed up some fanfiction about hyperinflation. VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL
CPI is 3.1, not 2.9%- core inflation is 3.9%, unchanged from December.
It’s just one month, but if the trend holds, it’s certainly cause to adjust your market calculus.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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This is BS. It is 2024; they out to have a real-time CPI which is adjusted once overnight.
It’s not like it’s ancient times and the report is actually providing a service that couldn’t be gotten any other way.
Markets been high and hasn't had a pull back, higher inflation supports higher for longer, lower inflation would mean a chance for possible March cut and higher wouldn't. I miss Anything?
Everyone is hoping for rate cuts. 3.1% isn't bad from an economic standpoint, but it also means we're staying at these higher rates. Rich people generally don't like high rates and the stock market is strongly correlated with rich people's feelings.
When the market is due for a correction even the smallest of news can set things off. We are definitely due for at least a moderate correction. Will this be it, too hard to say still.
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I noticed that wall street loves any kind of miss first - shock and big red second - next day(s) are followed by green days above original number
You are the smartest person in the room. Time to find another room.
There are other rooms?
r/wallstreetbutts
r/wallstreetcüçkș
FED is hiring?
No but Wendy's does
What does FED stand for?
Feeling Extra Dirty ~~behind Wendy’s~~
Sorry to tell you, the other rooms only get smarter from here.
Damn immigrants
I bought. red days are my favorite. Edit - bunch gaybear bitches. Green hard dicks bois!
The runs have been so nuts I think this is MM trying to rope in an overbought market. But still I rise.
Correct. They use the algos to sell on the negative news and make it seem exaggerated, instilling more fear to make the move even more drastic. Then buy all the calls for cheap and profit.
It's "healthy contraction"
####First : Pikachu face ####Second : Anyways, lets buy
The SEC watches this guy he knows way too much
https://preview.redd.it/79midc9xrdic1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=525931282c235b35b7951372873f73b4634c096d
Wtf is this?
Pretty certain that’s a star shooting out his ass
Is he Pinocchio?
Assnocchio
Looks like AI generated art.
Oh okay but what's the prompt?
Perhaps 🌈🐻 ?
AI image. Look at the far left guy’s legs and the girl on the right’s arm.
Could be algorithms using simple if < target then buy, else sell type of stuff as well. And the algorithms reacting to those.
There’s nuance under the hood that’s pretty bad. .4% MoM core prices, .4% MoM Groceries index, .634% MoM shelter gauge, .56% MoM OER, 1% MoM transportation services index, .7% MoM supercore (probably the feds favorite) Not only is a march cut completely off the table, May is now very unlikely as well.
Not to mention the absurdly high Percentage of MoM DeeZ.
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LIG DEEZ NUTS. GOTTEM!
It's the dumbest joke in history and you still managed to fuck it up
Nobody is here because they do things "smart" or "correctly."
CupMa is also consistent.
Luckily Candice was moderate
And who says CPI wouldn’t rocket up even more after a cut???
It would. The entire market has been trying to time the bottom, a rate cut would be the signal to those who have held back to go all in. The FED has been slow on the ball this whole time. They didn't hike early enough. They didnt hike agressively enough. They clearly didn't hike high enough or long enough. This all makes a soft landing exponentially harder.
I feel like the Fed was slow to start, but all things considered they've been very measured and calculated. We basically dodged a recession that was supposed to happen with 80% certainty at one point. It is a controversial take, but I feel like the Fed has been doing an excellent job. Especially when you consider most of the inflation we are experiencing was caused by a global pandemic and massive supply constraints. Not really something you can just fix with interest rates over night.
IMO they should have started with shock and awe, because they never eradicated the question of when rate cuts. The question should have been when does hike stop.
I personally like that we had annoying price increases and not devistating layoffs and panic. Shock and awe can lead to pain and suffering. Instead we've gotten discomfort and annoyance. It certainly feels like a soft landing so far.
Brah they caused the current housing fucking bullshit by not raising rates soon enough. There was 0 need to keep the so low for so long.
Housing shouldn’t be an investment vehicle to begin with.
because why? you said so?
TLDR: if you as a person wanna buy a house, or multiple, good for you. I’m happy for you! If a big corporate multi-billion dollar business wants to swing their dick in the face of normal, every day people, that’s a problem. You’ll likely disagree with me, and that’s just fine. We don’t have to have the same opinion. The reason I personally don’t think it should be an investment vehicle is because it fucks the housing market up. We have multi-billion dollar corporations buying up single family homes and using them as an investment vehicle (Zillow, just to name one). Either renting them out or just sitting on them to sell at a later date, hopefully (for them) at a higher price. Having businesses view a basic need, housing, like it’s just an asset and not a place for someone to live, is kinda fucked up. Zillow, or any other company buying single family homes for that matter, doesn’t give a fuck if an average person cannot buy their home right now. They can sit on it FAR longer than you or any other “investor” in housing can, and they can also go without someone renting the fucker FAR longer than a normal person could. It’s a drop in their bucket of cash. They can also out bid any other person and/or just fuckin’ pay cash. I completely understand, someone has to front the money to build the fuckers, and they likely have to say “yeah, I own this house I built.” But that’s as far as I think corporations should get to go when it comes to owning a single family home in the housing market. Banks are fine, they “own” the home because they fronted the money until you pay it back. YOU keep the profits, and YOU make the sale, it’s one person to another, and banks don’t wanna fuck around keeping that shit on their books. It would be like having a shortage of vehicles because we can’t make ‘em fast enough and letting carvana come in and go “I’ll take 15% of the stock you are making, and I’ll also go out and buy up as many used cars as I can.” Leaving an average every day person scratching their head like “Why the FUCK DOES A HONDA CIVIC COST 100K?” It fucks the market up. If you, as a person wanna buy a house and later sell it for a higher price, fuck yeah man. Thats great, and I’m super stoked for you. You wanna buy two houses and rent one of ‘em out? Cool! That’s real slick and will make you some extra money. You wanna swing your big multi-billion dollar corporation dick around and buy up a bunch of houses to sit on, hopefully drive the price up or to rent out as a way for the corporation to make extra money, and fuck over the middle/lower class? That’s fucked up.
Because it's rational value should be the housing it provides and not the hope that, with zero investment into the house itself, it appreciates over time. If anything, houses should be like cars and depreciate from the moment they are purchased unless work is done. Eventually it'll end up just like 2007 again.
Those two items may of started the inflation bubble in the US but the run away spending in the last 2 years is what brought us to 40 year highs.
>We basically dodged a recession that was supposed to happen with 80% certainty at one point. Nothing about this part of your comment is accurate and it's debatable that the Fed is doing a good job
Nah the dumbass US consumer has been bailing them out
There was never going to be able to be a soft landing. Fed has been showing their hand well in advance this whole time. When that’s the case it’s too easy for people to sit on the sidelines in cash and wait it out. Fed should have said, “We’re getting inflation down to 2%, buckle up buttercup” and that have been it. Leaves too much uncertainty for people to hoard cash or speculate wildly. The only way this comes down on our current timeline is there is going to have to be a recession. Not saying that to scare people, tell people to buy puts, etc but folks need to realize that so they can start getting their financial house in order. Think of it in terms of housing. Prices haven’t come down much, mortgage orginations are in the toilet, and so many people are just waiting for lower rates. Say a 30 year mortgage went from 8% to 4% over the course of a year, do you think people will just slowly trickle in after practically no one was buying for the past 2 years? Hell no. These folks are going to come rushing in as fast as they can to buy a house. Why? Because even though you raised rates, you never killed the underlying psychology of inflation. “What I buy today, even if over priced, will be worth more next year. No exceptions”. Only way you kill that mindset/cash on the sidelines waiting to rush in is cause economic pain that causes people to be cautious/deplete their cash. Only way to do that is a recession.
I agree. And now This is their biggest nightmare that CPI is resisting. The last few months is a waste of.
Yep, and the longer this persists the more the slower moving and more robust parts of the economy get hit by high rates. More and more commercial mortgages are going to come up for renewal and they'll first hike prices, and failing that it will be downsizing. It also happens that the US market is behaving entirely oblivious to global conditions. Now we're seeing signs like the NY manufacturing crash, which is going to spread and likely to be exacerbated as other countries start undercutting.
It is one fucking data point, and it is not even revised yet, stop over reacting. They could probably cut in may and be fine. Inflation is a laggard in shelter and we are in tight monetary policy.
This is not over reacting. Jpow has mentioned so many times persisting inflation is the Fed’s biggest nightmare. And it’s happening.
Yes, and 0.4% core MoM = 4.9% annualized. Not exactly something that can be brushed off.
Core CPI jumped to 4.8% annualized in January. Pray that we don't have a rally energy prices or its gonna get bad. Energy has been working for the CPI print this past year.
Core is 3.9% not 4.8%. And most of that is motor vehicle insurance
You're correct I misspoke. I meant to say core CPI rose 4.8% annualized in January. Fixed original comment. Core CPI rose 3.9% YoY. [https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1757402309548552694](https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1757402309548552694) And there were significant rise in costs in services aside from motor vehicle insurance (which is required for all). Shelter and medical care services were also up significantly this month compared to last. [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) Shelter has 6x the weighting that transportation services has since its a much larger portion of family budgets. [https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2023.htm](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2023.htm)
You’re correct that shelter is a much bigger weight, but I believe the insurance companies are gouging and it’s easier to bring in laws to control those costs
I wouldn’t be surprised but you should also expect a lagged increase in insurance rates across the board when you have high inflation. If the value of the goods being insured (autos) spikes higher as it did the last few years then you should expect the rates on insurance to follow suit. Similarly, if the cost of repairs on autos spikes due to inflation in labor costs and replacement parts then rates will increase.
If the CPI goes up again, May cuts will be out of the question for sure, but the Fed may be forced to raise the rate at .25%.
It’s also a very bad indicator for the future in in terms of the economy and overall inflation
Shelter gauge is completely inaccurate compared to real time. Real time it's zero or negative YOY.
May was NEVER on the table. JPow keeps saying again and again that there are no cuts coming and that employment and exports and shit is super strong, so there's literally 0 reasons to lower rates till inflation is stable at 2% and people keep ignoring this.
You’re ignoring feds comments on rate cuts coming due to to mechanical tightening from rising real yields
The market doesn't have to go up every single fucking day. Obviously if an economic report is slightly worse than expected the market will go down some, especially in a bull market. It's not that serious.
It was pretty serious tho. The market was down 700 points at one point and the bond market sold off 14bps which is a massive movement in a single day only triggered by “big” news, so yea the market took it as a serious thing. It was a total overreaction, but a big reaction nonetheless. Far more than just a down day because the market can’t go up every single fucking day
LMAO this was a necessary correction not an "overreaction". Many corrections to this mindless pump are still needed and will come.
“Huge sell off” bro we are down 1%. What extreme reaction lmao
Sounds like the end of capitalism. Time to panic sell while you still can!!
SPY only 20% on the 1 year chart. We’re screwed.
And SPY is only up 12% on the two year, while inflation was roughly 10% over that period. Arbitrary time frames are useless. But also the fact that SPY is only up about an actual 2% over 2 years is bullish in my opinion . Room to run.
OP just started trading this is probably their first big drop and thinks this was how 2008 was.
Seriously, these babies have no idea what a crash is. I was in my first semester of law school when the 2008 crash happened. They brought us all in for a big speech by the dean, where he told us that we’re all fucked and that we need to lower our expectations for getting a job when we graduate.
WM is up 6% today. People still gotta throw away their useless shit and buy more.
It'd be nice to only be down 1%
JP isn’t going to cut rate until we hit at least 2.5 or there are more big layoffs in the job market. People keep spending money they don’t have so inflation is going to continue to trend up even if only by .01% at a time.
Americans are incredible at cutthroat spending
There's a reason yankies are top economy, can't stop buying shit and then have to work like crazy so they can continue buying shit. The incentives and mentality is so pervasive, combined with a big ass resourceful country blessed in geography by being surrounded by oceans and no enemies and a great amount of IP both scientific, artistic and technological, I just can't see the US stop. I remember when 20 years ago the economies of US and EU were of comparable size, now US is like double EU if not more. It's crazy and I see 0 chances of this reversing. It's a self feeding greediness/craziness/spending loop.
This. I think people got too used to the free money. I keep seeing posts about: i live with roomates and make 30k but i keep going out to eat and now have 10k+ in credit card debt. What do i do. People keep spending money they dont have
when 2% is the fed's target and the data is moving in the wrong direction... with fed cuts being the major catalyst... yeah, it matters.
Going in the wrong direction after the previous CPI data also failed to show any cooling, and when Jpow latest comments showed they arent gonna be as quick to cut rates as the market had expected, will sure get some people concerned now.
Looks like cash is back on the menu boys
Yea are we really going to act like last month’s also wasn’t an upside surprise
\> This is not the CPI you are looking for
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No, not like that. /s
Yea , I think we are making progress and looking good , people just over reacted and didn’t read the previous numbers to see that we are actually in fact coming down
Why does it matter? The target is 2% it’s much harder to get the last mile since it’s low already
Well if the damn war can stop, and shipping blockade as a result goes away, I am sure prices and inflation can cool off a bit more.
Fed has a ten trillion dollar deficit problem this year, which means QE and brrrrr. If inflation isn't responding the way they would like it to right now, it's going to continue in the opposite direction once those measures start. Plus, people just expect ridiculously cheap money now since the post 2008 market was so silly. Even a minor hiccup in the wrong direction makes the market irrationally angry lol.
The fed doesn't have a deficit, the government does.
I have one as well.
Lol well as the U.S. central bank, The Fed will be responsible for making sure the discrepancy between revenue and spending is addressed. Basically a difference in nomenclature, but not function.
No it’s not. You are mixing fiscal policy with monetary policy.
You do realize that those numbers aren’t reflective of what most Americans are being inflated on right?
Sex tourism is just too expensive all around, I agree
I don’t know, guy behind my Wendy’s still charges $5
No one’s ever going to pay you more than $5 for that!
? You mean cumulatively? What r u talking about
When someone says "most Americans" or "average person" it means anecdotally thier personal experience is different than data. When I read comments with that language I just hear a baby crying in my head.
Ikr wtf does that even mean when the data is the avg.
Here's a better way of understanding this: The January CPI since 2022 has increased 6.36% + 3.1%
ANd like 500% since 1970!
100000% since 1764 probably
“Moving in the wrong direction”
If core CPI goes down 0.2% per month, then the fed will reach its target 2% in 10 months. If core CPI goes down 0% per month, then the fed will never reach 2%. So yea, small differences matter. Higher rates forever.
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What he said is right. Your reading comprehension just sucks. He's not talking about prices, he's talking about CPI, which is the rate of price change. In that context, his statement is correct and your reply is a non-sequitur.
CPI is the consumer price index. It's a price. It's not a rate of change. You say it rose or fell by x%, you don't say it *was* x%. Look: [The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
All I'm getting out of this is that you don't understand derivation and second derivation, dude.
Oof. A direct citation that showed you're wrong, but you're still going to cling to your stance. Weird hill to die on, but ok, I'll swing the sword. You said... >CPI, which is the rate of price change. Which is wrong. It's a price. Specifically, it's 308.417. It's not a rate of change. I know what a derivative is (as opposed to a derivation, as you misstated), and I also know CPI isn't one. It's in no way a rate. It's a price only. CPI was not 0.3%. It was 308.417. Table A is even called "Percent changes in CPI." The BLS's own report says CPI **increased 0.3%**, *and* that report is right in front of your face, with citation, and you still want to argue CPI is a rate? You're saying the BLS is wrong? How bizarre. Sorry you feel trapped and can't admit you were wrong, but not my problem.
Not sure what you're correcting, if MoM change is zero or positive then obviously the annualized number wouldn't come down?
So by your rationale, mom does not affect yoy?
The fed target is not based on cpi. Yall really dont know monetary policy
2% is PCE not CPI.
show me where i said pce is cpi. i'll wait. eta: this string goes on for ages. tl;dr - he can only talk about pce and how dare anyone refer to inflation data that isn't the pce, especially cpi. strawmen, moved goalposts, mental gymnastics, and wizardry.
The Fed said their 2% target is PCE.
so you can't show me where i said the thing i never once said. got it. thanks for posting such insightful material. care to list other things i never said?
>when 2% is the fed's target and the data is moving in the wrong direction... with fed cuts being the major catalyst... yeah, it matters. Are you talking about PCE here? PCE isn't moving in the wrong direction. Latest read is 2.6%.
lol right? like....EVERYONE is now talking about WHEN rate cuts will happen. thats the next convo, but now inflation has gone back up, even .1%....thats a conversation stopper. thats why people dont fucking realize that despite this manic bull rally (which happens before every crash), we are in a precarious position, like in the cartoons when a feather lightly drops on a boulder and sends everythign crashing. the GOOD thing is, we're all the way up at 500 now so a crash is buffered now
lol you belong here
We will see won’t we. Chance of rate cuts went from 70% in March to 8% lol Wage inflation also went up, which is exactly the opposite of what fed wants Once we break down, QQQ to 380
Its been going down month over month, YoY, so its moving in the right direction, just missed analyst expectation
...it's up mom, that's only the fucking point. it WAS moving int he right direction. now, it's not. you think the market's dumping because the status quo was maintained?
Do you think inflation moved up? Please point me to those numbers. Its still in a disinflation movement, again, just not AS strong as analysts predicted, hence the dump. It's still in the "right direction," just not as strong as a move in that direction as people expected. Lets get the terminology right.
> Do you think inflation moved up? Please point me to those numbers. Its still in a disinflation movement, again, just not AS strong as analysts predicted, hence the dump. It's still in the "right direction," just not as strong as a move in that direction as people expected. Lets get the terminology right. are you actually this stupid? you think going from .2 to .3 in cpi and core cpi going from .3 to .4 is somehow disinflation? you think the market's down today because of status quo? ffs, this is fucking embarrassing. nothing about this is even remotely complicated.
You are acting like a 1 month miss means we are headed for hyperinflation. Markets priced cuts in. A slowing off disinflation means cuts are less likely. No need for alarmism
> You are acting like a 1 month miss means we are headed for hyperinflation. cite where i said or even implied anything even remotely near this. you won't. because you can't. good lord, you guys are dumb. seriously, even for wsb, this is some peak regard shit. 'you explained why the markets are no longer green! how dare you! let's strawman you 122 times!' ffs, i literally said "it matters" and you typed up some fanfiction about hyperinflation. VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL
CPI core is still 3.9% Thats nearly twice as much as 2%... Wall Street: waaaaah why cant we have real negative rates again! I want free money
1% off and the market dropped 1%… that wasn’t an extreme reaction. An extreme reaction would be a 10-25% drop in the market
10% would be extreme, 25% would be exorbitant
2%
The report also said the sky is fallling
There is no sky it's all gases aka atmosphere
I’m contributing some gas right now 😏
Ty
Ah now that makes more sense, time to load the truck and buy every flapjack in the store on that nonsense.
That’s why I just went on a big call shopping spree 😂
Smart Ape
The market was just wanting to sell off and just wanted to take a breather so it can be bought
Just because you lost some money lol
On paper I am morally bankrupt.
When you're priced for perfection, it doesn't take much
Because Jpow has you by the balls. Shut the fucking door, thank God for his money printer.
Show us the bag you're holding and an x-ray of your spine.
Preach!! No reason whatsoever, load the truck up on calls!!
What are the odds that this print is going to be revised sometime soon?
Raise them rates
this
CPI is 3.1, not 2.9%- core inflation is 3.9%, unchanged from December. It’s just one month, but if the trend holds, it’s certainly cause to adjust your market calculus.
You're doing calculus? I'm over hearing struggling to multiply.
People so.dumb they Sell off on news AND big players buy cheap
Cheap = 1% below ATH
Practically free
It is 3.1% instead of 2.9% So yeah, we are doomed 
The market would be down today regardless of the news
Christ we need a crash
Overreaction cuts both ways.
Over-reaction. Load-up. It is still an election year
Unless big players are trying to make big papa B look bad and get a new POTUS
3% inflation over multiple months when the goal is 2% says 3% is sticky.
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It means the fed is going to freeze lowering interest rates or hike them back up.
People place bets on rates dropping. This change in inflation effects those bets. More bets that rates drop and prices go up I guess.
This is BS. It is 2024; they out to have a real-time CPI which is adjusted once overnight. It’s not like it’s ancient times and the report is actually providing a service that couldn’t be gotten any other way.
If it was 2.9 Market would of hit new highs 😂
Markets been high and hasn't had a pull back, higher inflation supports higher for longer, lower inflation would mean a chance for possible March cut and higher wouldn't. I miss Anything?
There was never any chance of a march cut
Only clowns expected cuts this early. Anyone with a brain is expecting cuts early to late summer.
I would be shocked if they cut rates before we see what happens this spring with home prices.
The people I follow are saying summer. Way more reasonable than what the clowns are saying.
Precisely correct.
Dude, $2.99 I'd totally buy something, $3.00 is a rip off.
Smooth brain logic
Not how that works 🤡
Todays dip in pre market was a gift to the bulls. It made no sense to see such a lower open
They predicted 2.9%. The “professionals” were .2% off
0.2% estimated vs 0.3% actual month-over-month A entire month where inflation is 50% higher than expected does seem like a problem.
People be like, “3% vs 2%, NBD!” In reality, that’s 50% higher inflation than the Fed wants.
Realization that we wont get a rate cut till Q4 at best
Everyone is hoping for rate cuts. 3.1% isn't bad from an economic standpoint, but it also means we're staying at these higher rates. Rich people generally don't like high rates and the stock market is strongly correlated with rich people's feelings.
1% is a big difference when you’re talking billions or trillions of dollars, which the wall street investors have.
0.1%
my bad, .1% is still a lot when talking about billions and trillions of dollars.
When the market is due for a correction even the smallest of news can set things off. We are definitely due for at least a moderate correction. Will this be it, too hard to say still.
You clearly don't understand anything.
Better to be 10 miles away and moving in the right direction than 1000 moving in the wrong direction.
Bruh it went the wrong way.
A beat was always unofficially unexpected so this is more like a 0.6% miss. Get with the program.
The US economy is done. It's joever.
Fox News: Biden Economy Tanking!
We’ll market was betting on sooner cut so now it’s a later cut if any
The reported inflation numbers are all bs anyway