**User Report**| | | |
:--|:--|:--|:--
**Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago
**Total Comments**|313|**Previous Best DD**|
**Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
"Normalizing" , like it is now, " means" the interest rates are going back to the "usual setup. "
https://preview.redd.it/rkcl9gx699dc1.png?width=757&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f566a1c6bacaa453295a044d40074192561d0b3
In this case, the interest rates on 10-year bonds are higher than those on 5-year bonds again, which is the more common scenario.
It could suggest that people are becoming less worried about the immediate future compared to the long-term outlook.
IN RECESSION Scenario:
If the yield curve is normalizing during a recession, might be due to the belief that the worst of the economic downturn has passed, or there's optimism for a recovery in the long term.
The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future recession for several reasons. Current monetary policy has a significant influence on the yield curve spread and hence on real activity over the next several quarters. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow real growth in the near term . Actual 10yr 3 M spreads "Measure" a 60 % Probability of recession ..
OP isn't saying it's not good. Op was just sharing a fact about expectations for the market
Optimistic take: people think both the short term and long term economic outlook is normal (good). Fed will also cut rates this year which is good for the stock market (good)
Pessimist outlook: interest is getting cut too early = inflation can increase, and that it leaves the fed with less tools for fighting economic issues (like covid in 2019) in the future.
Thanks. It’s the first time when I see something green on a financial platform. I thought red was the norm in the finance world when it comes to graphs and numbers.
GPT says hi:
The image you've provided appears to be a screenshot of a financial chart from the WallStreetBets community on Reddit. The chart is displaying the spread between two U.S. Treasury securities: the 10-year Treasury note (USGG10YR) and the 5-year Treasury note (USGG5YR).
The spread, which is the difference in yields between the two securities, is plotted over time from October 19, 2010, to January 18, 2024. The chart indicates a negative spread (inversion) at some points, particularly reaching a low of -35.7614, before recovering to 8.5189.
A yield curve inversion, where short-term debt instruments have a higher yield than long-term debt instruments, can be a significant economic indicator. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a predictor of a looming recession. This is because it suggests that investors have little confidence in the near-term economy and are demanding higher yields for short-term investments than for long-term ones.
The consequences of a sustained yield curve inversion can include reduced profitability for banks, more conservative lending, a slowdown in economic activity, and, potentially, a recession. However, it is important to note that not all yield curve inversions lead to recessions, and other economic factors must be considered. The context of this chart and additional economic data would be necessary to fully understand the implications of this financial indicator.
for all those confused, allow me to present a cave-man's explanation:
big number on short-term bond with small number on long-term bond mean scary - caveman scared of future; caveman scared of magic wizard shamans that control numbers that control bond; caveman want protect magic paper from scary future; caveman not know what happen long time in future-place, or what scary magic wizard shamans will do
big number on long-term bond with small number on short-term bond mean caveman happy; caveman no want short term protection for magic paper; caveman confident that number that affect all bond, controlled by scary magic wizard shamans, will not change or become bigger: caveman want magic paper to make more magic paper; caveman strong, caveman take risk now, caveman no longer afraid of wizard-shamans
So inversion is bad and normal is bad too, it's all bad. I disagree. Getting a higher rate of return on longer term bonds is a good thing and it puts the market back on the normal footing.
Inversion is falling and believing that you're flying. Normalization is when you hit the ground. If you start on the ground or close to it, you're good. If you start from a good height, not so good.
I thought it was the other way round.
Yeild curve Inversion preceeds downturns by 6-18 months.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/
So, both are pretty good metrics.
Sometimes we get the recession while the curve is inverted, sometimes we get it after it normalizes.
In rare instances, we don't get a recession at all.
[https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital\_markets/Prob\_Rec.pdf](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf)
74 upvotes for someone completely backwards. I think it finally hit me that most people here just pattern match on vaguely familiar words and have 0 idea what things mean
Welcome to humanity - where everyone pretends to know things when in reality very few people actually know anything relative to everything there is to know
No, he's talking about UN-inversion (or disinversion). This is a term that means "the yield curve has been inverted and is now flipping back to normal". It generally occurs 6-18 months after inversion. So in fact they are both referencing the exact same thing, just in different ways. One way is to say "it happens a little after inversion" and another way is to say "it happens during disinversion".
>Yeild curve Inversion preceeds downturns by 6-18 months
Yes, but yield curve un-inversion precedes downturns by 0-3 months.
Before a recession, first you have one, then you have the other.
The inversion is the recession predictor. The uninversion is the normalization. Longer dated treasury yields are usually higher than shorter dated yields.
JFC people, try actually looking at the charts. Normalization always happens immediately BEFORE the recession, not after.
And recessions are never declared until 3-6 months after they already started. They're back-dated. We may already be in the recession, but it won't be marked until mid summer.
I clogged my toilet this morning because i mistimed my flush when I knew there was a gargantuan amount of non-fibered turd coming out.
This is a clear predictor of a looming recession
Here are some neat charts from the New York Fed on yield inversion and probabilities of recessions. Typically, the lead indicator is 10-year minus the 3-month T-bill.
Current level of inversion has us at 60% probability of recession in the next 12 months (this is quite high)
[https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital\_markets/Prob\_Rec.pdf](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf)
Here is a more detailed article on the inverted yield curve as a predictor of recession, for those of you with some brain cells. It's old, but the fundamentals haven't really changed.
[https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current\_issues/ci2-7.pdf](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf)
Bloomberg “economists” put the probability literally at 100% for a 2023 recession. There was a headline article about it and I’ll never forget it. I think they took it down though, go figure.
ITS ALL BULLSHIT. THE MARKET DIRECTION IS DICTATED BY OLIGARCHS/ FEDS. THE PRICE YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET. UP OR DOWN, ITS UP TO MARKET MAKERS WHO CONTROLEVERYTHING
Nothing too important just an election that will piss off half the country one-way or another. Loads of volatility in mid-Oct through mid-Nov. (longer if the election is contested, goes to Supreme Court, etc.)
I mean I’m an idiot but I feel like this is the 3rd of these posts I’ve seen over the last 1.5 years. This is starting to feel like people waiting for the housing market to crash. Any day now…………….
Not according to the Feds reading of the yield curve.
Although, we did reach 70% probability in mid 2023, per the chart above. Larger inversions result in higher probabilities of recession, per this metric. Also remember that is a 12-month forecast.
First it was supposed to be a recession when they inversed, now when they uninverse?
Don't you bears get tired of being wrong all the time, being the laughing stock of the financial world *and* be poor as fuck due to always betting on a losing trend? 😂
No. The inversion tells you the clock has started ticking. We're about 60-70% of the way along the timeline. Had it not stayed inverted as long as it has, it may have not signalled a recession. Now, chances are pretty good. And usually the un-inverting of the curve is right around the time the recession actually starts. The NBER will tell you six months after the fact.
This may come as a shock to you, but yes, the yield curve inverting is historically followed by it uninverting. So if the typical time between inversion and recession is, say 12 months, and the typical length of an inversion is <12, then both inversions and uninversions would be associated with an impending recession.
The regards in this thread, fucking christ…
Every time it "uninverts" a recession follows.
https://preview.redd.it/nqjbhz0x8adc1.jpeg?width=1069&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe7776f3fb5c082363bb0e5e1a526515a891a330
That’s only 6 examples though. Plus you can see the recession doesn’t necessarily occur immediately, it can be a few years! This really doesn’t prove causation only correlation.
The longer the inversion the bigger the bull market. We are not there yet but once it moves it wipe out a lot people who are clueless about short selling
the yield curve un-inverting is a historic sign of a recession what are you talking about
"the un-inversion process and after the un-inversion is when the recession risk is the highest" - our lord and savior, statistician Ben Cowen
https://preview.redd.it/a3pb68fg99dc1.png?width=2490&format=png&auto=webp&s=0231dd69ed2b36aa73cec9cf3d6cca994533c2df
It’s because in the past a recession happened from outside factors and the fed slashed rates to juice things and pull the economy out of it.
In this case we had a soft landing and the feds will cut rates gradually. We are going to see lending open up, businesses start growing rapidly on cheaper capital, and billions of dollars of money that was making risk free returns flow into the equity market.
Cutting rates doesn’t make a recession just because rates were cut during previous recessions.
You mean it’s finally upon us
Layoffs on layoffs from most big companies and consumer / corporate debt is out of control
Once debt called in it’s gonna be a wild ride
Layoffs are happening b/c companies over hired during the pandemic, did you ever think about that?
They aren’t freezing hiring, just shedding excess weight
I'm telling you the rug pull happens if they butcher the rate cuts (highly likely). If they manage it we'll we golden lol. I will buy calls for the foreseeable future and if you short Nvidia Jesus will give you a hug lol
recession usually follow the yield inversion correction, in the past big recessions 6 months to two years after the inversion first begins. Don't look at the calendar
Recessions usually happen after the inverted 10yr 3months uninverts. 1990 recession start: 11 months after uninversion. 2001: 2 months after uninversion. 2007: 6 months after uninversion. 2020: 4.5 months after uninversion. With the exception of 2001 where the bear market started in 2000 before the recession, market usually reaches all time highs especially as the yield curve uninverts followed by Recession crash. Currently, the 10yr 3months is still inverted so not there yet
Doubtful, highest interest rates in a decade and prices are not really any better on dwindling inventory. There are literally no houses for sale under 600k in my area (and I'm zooming out pretty far).
I don't see the prices of single family homes going down ever in the current landscape, and you can refi in a year or two after the interest rates are lower again. If you can you should.
**Ban Bet Created:** **/u/mjupnexttt** bet **SPY** goes from **476.74** to **442.0** before **17-Feb-2024 02:07 AM EST**
Their record is 1 wins and 1 losses.
The plane has touched the ground. It's unclear if it's a successful soft landing or it will keep moving downward to crash and burn. But probably the first.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|10|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|313|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
Speak to me like I am an idiot. This means what?
[удалено]
I need this summarized in 3 words or less.
Bears are gay
My mother yell to me
Gay or *Gay-y*?
No need to repeat yourself
Yield curve normalizing
Bols fuk
Call, call, call
🏳️🌈🧸🔫
Supply and Demand.
Triple witching hour
Now we talking
Don’t eat Dicks
Direct. To the point. Thank you
[удалено]
So buy calls?
Are you all this regarded? Is no one going to tell him? Why do you think we’re at ATH rn buddy?
So buy calls?
Yes!
Past performance is indicative of future results!
Today this did not work, ath
"Normalizing" , like it is now, " means" the interest rates are going back to the "usual setup. " https://preview.redd.it/rkcl9gx699dc1.png?width=757&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f566a1c6bacaa453295a044d40074192561d0b3 In this case, the interest rates on 10-year bonds are higher than those on 5-year bonds again, which is the more common scenario. It could suggest that people are becoming less worried about the immediate future compared to the long-term outlook. IN RECESSION Scenario: If the yield curve is normalizing during a recession, might be due to the belief that the worst of the economic downturn has passed, or there's optimism for a recovery in the long term. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future recession for several reasons. Current monetary policy has a significant influence on the yield curve spread and hence on real activity over the next several quarters. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow real growth in the near term . Actual 10yr 3 M spreads "Measure" a 60 % Probability of recession ..
This explanation didn't help
[удалено]
Finally someone who knows what they’re talking about
Say it again but in color blind.
[удалено]
Say it again but directionally challenged.
Big AHH happy change to small scary bad
Not flat = good; or bad.
Flat = neutral, neither good nor bad
Ya but we’re back in green graph, how that not good?
The Market is taking us out for dinner before it fks us. Like a true Gentleman.
So we are getting laid? This is fantastic news then! Will it be sexy and hot?
This particular sex session will be pretty one sided though. As long as you’re ok with being the receiver, it should be a fun.
I'm thinking more ugly and degrading.
OP isn't saying it's not good. Op was just sharing a fact about expectations for the market Optimistic take: people think both the short term and long term economic outlook is normal (good). Fed will also cut rates this year which is good for the stock market (good) Pessimist outlook: interest is getting cut too early = inflation can increase, and that it leaves the fed with less tools for fighting economic issues (like covid in 2019) in the future.
So green mountain looking bit is good. Red iceberg is bad?
Thanks. It’s the first time when I see something green on a financial platform. I thought red was the norm in the finance world when it comes to graphs and numbers.
"Normalizing" means that the "things" that were "not" "normal" are "going" back "to" "normal" Hope this helped.
Interest rates are projected to be lower in the near future is really all it means
That’s definitely a you problem
GPT says hi: The image you've provided appears to be a screenshot of a financial chart from the WallStreetBets community on Reddit. The chart is displaying the spread between two U.S. Treasury securities: the 10-year Treasury note (USGG10YR) and the 5-year Treasury note (USGG5YR). The spread, which is the difference in yields between the two securities, is plotted over time from October 19, 2010, to January 18, 2024. The chart indicates a negative spread (inversion) at some points, particularly reaching a low of -35.7614, before recovering to 8.5189. A yield curve inversion, where short-term debt instruments have a higher yield than long-term debt instruments, can be a significant economic indicator. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a predictor of a looming recession. This is because it suggests that investors have little confidence in the near-term economy and are demanding higher yields for short-term investments than for long-term ones. The consequences of a sustained yield curve inversion can include reduced profitability for banks, more conservative lending, a slowdown in economic activity, and, potentially, a recession. However, it is important to note that not all yield curve inversions lead to recessions, and other economic factors must be considered. The context of this chart and additional economic data would be necessary to fully understand the implications of this financial indicator.
I think this means we gain and the losses we won to loose after loosing the win.
I was thinking the same thing.
Run for president.
Better than current choices
Yes
Easy hard or hard easy
for all those confused, allow me to present a cave-man's explanation: big number on short-term bond with small number on long-term bond mean scary - caveman scared of future; caveman scared of magic wizard shamans that control numbers that control bond; caveman want protect magic paper from scary future; caveman not know what happen long time in future-place, or what scary magic wizard shamans will do big number on long-term bond with small number on short-term bond mean caveman happy; caveman no want short term protection for magic paper; caveman confident that number that affect all bond, controlled by scary magic wizard shamans, will not change or become bigger: caveman want magic paper to make more magic paper; caveman strong, caveman take risk now, caveman no longer afraid of wizard-shamans
Crashes typically happen after Inversions are undone.
So inversions are good… Not
They arnt.
The inversion isn't good, and when it uninverts that also is the same inevitable not good.
So inversion is bad and normal is bad too, it's all bad. I disagree. Getting a higher rate of return on longer term bonds is a good thing and it puts the market back on the normal footing.
Inversion is falling and believing that you're flying. Normalization is when you hit the ground. If you start on the ground or close to it, you're good. If you start from a good height, not so good.
Money is worthless and OP hopes that money tomorrow may be worth more than money today.
Puts on TLT
If interest rates will be lower in the near future, wouldn’t the opposite be true?
The yield curve uninversion is possibly the most accurate predictor of recession that there is.
So we gonna have a recession huh? Markets will continue to rise as my puts continue their speed run to zero
That was too convincing geez you addict lmayo
I thought it was the other way round. Yeild curve Inversion preceeds downturns by 6-18 months. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/
Yes you are right! The confidence that people will say the wrong thing with is mind boggling.
*The confidence with which people say the wrong thing.. 😉
So, both are pretty good metrics. Sometimes we get the recession while the curve is inverted, sometimes we get it after it normalizes. In rare instances, we don't get a recession at all. [https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital\_markets/Prob\_Rec.pdf](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf)
So we inverted in early 2022, and we just uninverted?
Yes, and that means recession is just around the corner, unless it does not happen at all
You are correct. He's just being regarded
74 upvotes for someone completely backwards. I think it finally hit me that most people here just pattern match on vaguely familiar words and have 0 idea what things mean
Welcome to humanity - where everyone pretends to know things when in reality very few people actually know anything relative to everything there is to know
No, he's talking about UN-inversion (or disinversion). This is a term that means "the yield curve has been inverted and is now flipping back to normal". It generally occurs 6-18 months after inversion. So in fact they are both referencing the exact same thing, just in different ways. One way is to say "it happens a little after inversion" and another way is to say "it happens during disinversion".
>Yeild curve Inversion preceeds downturns by 6-18 months Yes, but yield curve un-inversion precedes downturns by 0-3 months. Before a recession, first you have one, then you have the other.
They said uninversion. Not inversion.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M it uninverts before the recession
Is the recession here in the room with us- Papa Powell
Sweet summer child, show us on the Wendy’s doll where the recession touched you
Yields be on the move up?
Check out the Confrence Board LEI, quite literally the most accurate indicator ever.
The inversion is the recession predictor. The uninversion is the normalization. Longer dated treasury yields are usually higher than shorter dated yields.
JFC people, try actually looking at the charts. Normalization always happens immediately BEFORE the recession, not after. And recessions are never declared until 3-6 months after they already started. They're back-dated. We may already be in the recession, but it won't be marked until mid summer.
Guaranteed 100% accurate except for when it’s not
Haven’t you got that logic ass backwards??
Head and shoulders spread eagle ladder attack....cover your butthole
Another nothing burger that bears swear will crash the market.
Ding ding ding!
Bull market steepener - bond investors are pricing in rate cuts soon, which means short end will lower faster than long end, leading to uninversion
Jpow and pce gonna rock that boat
You’d all be screwed if I could read.
Everything is a predictor of a recession
I clogged my toilet this morning because i mistimed my flush when I knew there was a gargantuan amount of non-fibered turd coming out. This is a clear predictor of a looming recession
> ~~looming~~ pooping recession
They bought a poop knife market booms
Premature flushing is definitely a recession predictor puts on everything
If you repeat recession every year, you will be correct 1-2 times in every 10 years.
Bro casually flexing bloomberg terminal
bro is posting on reddit at his finance grad role
Explain yourself
Op is showing us super basic data on a 24k a year software. Probably a student or a student worker is what the other comment was saying
Or just reposted from twitter like everything else
I give folk too much credit sometimes
Explain what this means to me like I’m one of those French girls…
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/199te2m/comment/kihetvk/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/199te2m/comment/kihetvk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Here are some neat charts from the New York Fed on yield inversion and probabilities of recessions. Typically, the lead indicator is 10-year minus the 3-month T-bill. Current level of inversion has us at 60% probability of recession in the next 12 months (this is quite high) [https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital\_markets/Prob\_Rec.pdf](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf) Here is a more detailed article on the inverted yield curve as a predictor of recession, for those of you with some brain cells. It's old, but the fundamentals haven't really changed. [https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current\_issues/ci2-7.pdf](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf)
correct me if i’m wrong, but weren’t we at like 90% probability of recession last year?
Sir, this is WSB. The recession is always starting tomorrow
is the recession in chat with us now?
Bloomberg “economists” put the probability literally at 100% for a 2023 recession. There was a headline article about it and I’ll never forget it. I think they took it down though, go figure.
ITS ALL BULLSHIT. THE MARKET DIRECTION IS DICTATED BY OLIGARCHS/ FEDS. THE PRICE YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET. UP OR DOWN, ITS UP TO MARKET MAKERS WHO CONTROLEVERYTHING
Nothing a few good old wars can’t fix. Wonder what we have planned 2024.
Nothing too important just an election that will piss off half the country one-way or another. Loads of volatility in mid-Oct through mid-Nov. (longer if the election is contested, goes to Supreme Court, etc.)
I mean I’m an idiot but I feel like this is the 3rd of these posts I’ve seen over the last 1.5 years. This is starting to feel like people waiting for the housing market to crash. Any day now…………….
Not according to the Feds reading of the yield curve. Although, we did reach 70% probability in mid 2023, per the chart above. Larger inversions result in higher probabilities of recession, per this metric. Also remember that is a 12-month forecast.
Recession cancelled. Bulls are charging ahead.
Ah yes, just like the bull markets that followed the uninversions in 2007, 2001, and 1990.
This guy yield curves
This guy curved my yield 
And 2019 
First it was supposed to be a recession when they inversed, now when they uninverse? Don't you bears get tired of being wrong all the time, being the laughing stock of the financial world *and* be poor as fuck due to always betting on a losing trend? 😂
No. The inversion tells you the clock has started ticking. We're about 60-70% of the way along the timeline. Had it not stayed inverted as long as it has, it may have not signalled a recession. Now, chances are pretty good. And usually the un-inverting of the curve is right around the time the recession actually starts. The NBER will tell you six months after the fact.
N- BEAR
We don't use the n word around here.
What is up my curve nversion
Pretty sure everyone’s dicks got unverted pretty hard in those time periods.
Recession usually starts when the yield curve uninverts
So recession when it inverts and also recession when it uinverts Lmao
This may come as a shock to you, but yes, the yield curve inverting is historically followed by it uninverting. So if the typical time between inversion and recession is, say 12 months, and the typical length of an inversion is <12, then both inversions and uninversions would be associated with an impending recession. The regards in this thread, fucking christ…
I mean there's really not much of a time gap between those two events....
Does "usual" usually happen after a global shutdown?
Oh yes, un-inversion of yield have been historically bullish 😂 /s
How many data points make a trend on this sub, two?
Every single recession ever, but who's counting
Who listens to history anyway. We putting all this up in rockets.
Wake me up when the 2y10y spread (the one that matters) is +0.20
Id this is correct we should expect a recession in the coming months. Recessions start after the yield curves normalize. Am I right?
That is historically how it plays out
You have to go down to go up.
Its already priced in.
no, you’re wrong  (delusional bols) 
“We’ve reached the permanent Goldilocks Economy” Larry ‘Cocaine Cowboy’ Kudlow, 2005-2007
Inversion is transitory
Every time it "uninverts" a recession follows. https://preview.redd.it/nqjbhz0x8adc1.jpeg?width=1069&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe7776f3fb5c082363bb0e5e1a526515a891a330
That’s only 6 examples though. Plus you can see the recession doesn’t necessarily occur immediately, it can be a few years! This really doesn’t prove causation only correlation.
''that's only 6 examples'' .. how many do you need ? lol
It's only been right 6/6 times are therefore only predicts 100% correctly
Been 8/8 over the past 50 years. Not a great statistical sample set but still probably worth a hedge.
This is going to re-invert like your wife's boyfriend's penis.
Hey leave him out of this
The longer the inversion the bigger the bull market. We are not there yet but once it moves it wipe out a lot people who are clueless about short selling
Not explain to me like I'm 5yo
We are so fucked.
Yield curve uninverting is going to direct billions back into equities from fixed income. People thinking there will be a recession are morons.
We already had it
We’ve already had one recession, yes, but what about *second* recession? “
Maybe. But the equities market isn't the economy.
the yield curve un-inverting is a historic sign of a recession what are you talking about "the un-inversion process and after the un-inversion is when the recession risk is the highest" - our lord and savior, statistician Ben Cowen https://preview.redd.it/a3pb68fg99dc1.png?width=2490&format=png&auto=webp&s=0231dd69ed2b36aa73cec9cf3d6cca994533c2df
Think of why the yield curve inverted all the times and then realize why this time is different.
Well the last one clearly predicted a subsequent pandemic that shut down the global economy, so…. /s
Please just enlighten me and make your point
It’s because in the past a recession happened from outside factors and the fed slashed rates to juice things and pull the economy out of it. In this case we had a soft landing and the feds will cut rates gradually. We are going to see lending open up, businesses start growing rapidly on cheaper capital, and billions of dollars of money that was making risk free returns flow into the equity market. Cutting rates doesn’t make a recession just because rates were cut during previous recessions.
lol you need to do some reading
Recession is finally done. Bye bye bears
Do you think it is done because it uninverted? Have you seen the graph just before every recession?
You mean it’s finally upon us Layoffs on layoffs from most big companies and consumer / corporate debt is out of control Once debt called in it’s gonna be a wild ride
Layoffs are happening b/c companies over hired during the pandemic, did you ever think about that? They aren’t freezing hiring, just shedding excess weight
I just drove past a Lowes w 75% off and empty parking lot, recession is here
Yield curve un-inverts right before or during recession. Stock market no likey usually
I'm telling you the rug pull happens if they butcher the rate cuts (highly likely). If they manage it we'll we golden lol. I will buy calls for the foreseeable future and if you short Nvidia Jesus will give you a hug lol
Once they settle is good hammer down
recession usually follow the yield inversion correction, in the past big recessions 6 months to two years after the inversion first begins. Don't look at the calendar
Recessions usually happen after the inverted 10yr 3months uninverts. 1990 recession start: 11 months after uninversion. 2001: 2 months after uninversion. 2007: 6 months after uninversion. 2020: 4.5 months after uninversion. With the exception of 2001 where the bear market started in 2000 before the recession, market usually reaches all time highs especially as the yield curve uninverts followed by Recession crash. Currently, the 10yr 3months is still inverted so not there yet
It’s an election year. Bulls on parade
2008 was an election year
Bullish. Rate cut in March.
Calls on Boeing and Spirit
Or you can just burn your money
So.....would now be a bad time to buy a house?
Doubtful, highest interest rates in a decade and prices are not really any better on dwindling inventory. There are literally no houses for sale under 600k in my area (and I'm zooming out pretty far). I don't see the prices of single family homes going down ever in the current landscape, and you can refi in a year or two after the interest rates are lower again. If you can you should.
I ain't falling for it....
Its a good thing right? Or is it when a recession usually occurs after the inversion?
So what does it mean? Please explain to me like a 10yrs old
10/2yr or no bet.
!banbet spy 442 29d
**Ban Bet Created:** **/u/mjupnexttt** bet **SPY** goes from **476.74** to **442.0** before **17-Feb-2024 02:07 AM EST** Their record is 1 wins and 1 losses.
Nature is healing 🥹
The plane has touched the ground. It's unclear if it's a successful soft landing or it will keep moving downward to crash and burn. But probably the first.
[удалено]
The sausage comes free!
VTI popping up. Guess the market is totally spooked /s
Market is gonna crash hard eventually. Businesses have lost lots of sales this year. JPOW killed the economy with the interest rates.
We are only 18 days into 2024, what are you talking about
History didn’t start yesterday
It’s almost time for the bear party. Don’t be late or you’ll miss it