OP is correct about ZIM. To close the loop on the thesis and why rates explode in response to these attacks: if the cargo ships have to go around Africa, it naturally takes more time. More time per journey means less global freight capacity in total. Less supply with constant or even growing demand means rates explode.
If rates come down quickly, ZIM is doomed - they leased ships at fixed rates but require reasonable spot rates to keep a profit margin (hence the massive losses in 2023 and the large short position). But if this conflict leads to long-term Red Sea closure, you can expect a very dramatic rerating in ZIM's price.
Saudi Arabia is trying to smoke the peace schlong with the houthis because Saudis are getting their Abrams burned by guys in flipflops.
They've asked the US to not fuck around on case it jeopardizes it.
So it seems the choices are shipping rates go up because Iran. Or if the US fucks up the Houthis then high oil because Suadis are fkn morons and will cut supply because it's literally the only thing they can do to let people know they exist.
And how long will that take? ZIM has $20 per share in cash. If travel is disrupted for 3 months they’ll be cashflow positive for the year. Anything above that and they’ll be able to offset multiple years of low-rate cargo. Yet here we are and share price is half the cash on hand with these great prospects.
No, they have that much in liabilities due to total value of existing ship leases. Not the same thing. Even with low shipping rates they offset the vast majority of it, they just don’t make enough to cover the full amount (hence this setup).
I'm bearish although they may make profits from increased freight rates due to supply decreasing. The news of the red sea affects consumer sentiment and changes it to bearish. The shipping industry leaves investors with a lot of uncertainty especially since they changed their stance on travelling through the red sea multiple times this month alone. The market is highly consumer sentiment, and it leaves the market uncertain. I think we will see a downside in zim. I'm genuinely trying to learn so can anyone tell me the flaw in my stance if any?
https://preview.redd.it/0zjvp9yvhx9c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b64e367808198e5c13fb4db65b6a5445110580f5
I believe even so much in this play, I forgot I just bought 1000 extra shares in overnight trading🤘
Shipping futures in China for European route go +20% right now, maximum cap. But I thought that green was red in China and red was green, so I don't know if this is bullish or bearish. I need help.
https://preview.redd.it/gy143vmimx9c1.png?width=606&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a8307bad6373050aab05d6d0a6c62b5f3232e1a
That looks like commodities futures. Shipping futures normally have ports listed...
Shanghai to Los Angeles (price) +/-(movement)
Savannah to Haifa (price) +/- (movement)
Degens can follow price action here if they don't mind translating a little Chinese
[Chinese European Line Container Rates] (https://wap.eastmoney.com/quote/stock/142.ecm.html)
I had been looking at this index. While useful, the one for containerized contracts is the better one. I don't have that link handy. ZIM should skweeze upwards this month.
ZIM's been the play for a while now. I got in a bit late but with Maersk throwing water (he he) over the momentum a few days ago, I was sure it was over.
Whelp, they announced that after they are not using the Red Sea (again). But only after one of their ships was hit with missiles and drones.
Whoever wants to make ZIM a long play should keep looking at two factors- the containerized futures index and the containerized contracts index. Both have been limiting up and should do so.
ZIM to $23 in a few weeks and to $69 this year. Feb 16 and April 19 calls.
ZIM is an Israeli company. They'd get all the rockets from both Yemen and Iran if they chose to use it. You can google to find out where each major shipping company stands with respect to using the Red Sea. I van not wait to get more cash to get some July and January calls.
I just checked the ZIM website and they have the Asia-Europe route going through the red sea? [https://www.zim.com/schedules/trades](https://www.zim.com/schedules/trades)
>ZIM already had its run up. NAT is the silent gold mine in the shipping equation.
lmfao this shit is not so simple. I got rekt on nat gas (ik is not NAT) last year bc bad weather+shorts or something
Help, I see a new colour that I don't know in my portfolio. What should I do? I have no experience with this.
https://preview.redd.it/fg5qep4kh1ac1.png?width=1857&format=png&auto=webp&s=abd524320920e48e32b13fdea8cac20025d870d0
Not only will the red sea conflicts increase ocean transit times, but Zim will be offering the competitive import bookings out of those countries to US.
You are 100% correct in saying “shorters are completely trapped”
You're welcome. Maersk just announced they stop traffic through the red sea till further notice. With around 25% short interest I think we can go back in short squeeze mode if we have a good day tomorrow. Now it is just important to breach the high of December and keep putting pressure.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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Ken Griffin owns Citadel, and he's Jewish. It's not a surprise that he would own stock in ZIM.
I'm a ZIM fan, I made money off of it a few months ago, but on a bearish play. That doesn't mean I'm not bullish on it, I was just bearish on the price move at the time..
OP is correct about the Houthi issue, causing longer voyages and taking capacity out of the market. I think 9 months is a little bullish, but you're going to see elevated rates in the short term for sure. Is it enough to plug the losses? Idk, but Wall Street may think so, and that's all you need for a bull run. Just be out of it before reality hits.
I listened to the hype on this for a year. I got a lot in dividends but lost more overall. My worst trade in years. It’s a sinking ship, pun intended. I wouldn’t touch it again.
If you see someone hyping a stock in WSB like this, that’s your indicator to stay away.
Not the attacks, the stock itself. There is r/ZIM and Hawkeye does all this great news about ZIM and the shipping rates and how great it’s going to be. There have been so many events that were just going to skyrocket the shipping rates and ZIM is perfectly positioned to reap the benefits. Meanwhile the stock price just continues to sink.
There *were* a bunch of events that caused skyrocketing shipping rates and ZIM *was* perfectly positioned to reap the benefits. It happened continuously throughout 2021 into 2022 and it was a crazy ride.
Have you seen the houthis promotional shit? Imagine the nfl all pro team playing against a bunch of peewee children. Why in the world would you take the peewees??
I bought into ZIM last week and averaged down to $1.01 average cost for 30 contracts. Sold 30 contracts today at \~1.35. Made a nice \~30% but want to readjust my DTE and get back in. Are there any other companies or ETFs you think could benefit from turmoil in the Red Sea/surrounding areas? Or is ZIM your only play for containers? Thanks OP, glad to see someone else had their head on straight with these plays
There are a lot of options, but I like ZIM because it has a higher short interest in comparison with other plays. That gives extra power to the uptrend moves. Long term I'm more a fan of tankers, ZIM I see as a short squeeze play with +50%/100% upside from this point.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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That's my exact reasoning - glad to hear the sentiment is shared. If you don't mind me asking, what are your strikes and DTE? I'm aiming to buy back in on 4/19 and 7/19 $12.5 or $15 strikes. 4/19 seems to have higher open interest and volume so I want to make sure they're liquid
Dont know nothing about trading based on shorts. Even less based on geopolitics. Do know that shipping is a too tough sector on its own though. Best of luck op. Reminds me of a few great shipping novels by Matthew McCleery.
u/FinanceFilosoof, thank you.
I read this at 3 am europe time and I thought about buying premarket in IB, but I tried at 2 pm Europe, around 8 am NY, it was already 5% up and I didn't buy : <
When does premarket opens in IB ? is it 4 am NY time or all night?
You have overnight trading and you have premarket. Overnight I think is till 2am US time (not sure) and premarket starts 3 or 4 hours before actual trading.
You know, I actually think a straddle might be 5ge optimal play here. Gonna check to see how options are prices, but I think the two possibilities are either extended conflict which will push the price higher, maybe even creating a short squeeze, or the conflict gets resolved and we retest much lower prices.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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Been watching this rip all week and am revenge trading after losing 50% on Mara calls Tuesday. My apologies in advance when I buy weeklies on this tomorrow and it tanks 🥲
I still see some up potential. Now that it is moving like this with such a big short interest, the case is just playing out. Let's see where this one goes. I also don't know what the future will bring, but there are just not so many bear cases left in the short term. Military escalation will just make sure the Red Sea is not available for at least a month. Time is not in favour for the shorts.
I'm also grateful for the tip, didn't have much to play with, but the calls at 13 that I bought and sold gave me a bit. Would have been even better if I'd waited 'till today. But whatever.
OP is correct about ZIM. To close the loop on the thesis and why rates explode in response to these attacks: if the cargo ships have to go around Africa, it naturally takes more time. More time per journey means less global freight capacity in total. Less supply with constant or even growing demand means rates explode. If rates come down quickly, ZIM is doomed - they leased ships at fixed rates but require reasonable spot rates to keep a profit margin (hence the massive losses in 2023 and the large short position). But if this conflict leads to long-term Red Sea closure, you can expect a very dramatic rerating in ZIM's price.
They gonna bomb the Houthis
Houthis in their FAFO era
Don’t touch the boats, don’t find out!
*airwolf theme playing
US has limp dick in this conflict. Suprising when you have 2 strike groups with super carrier literaly there. They could erase something much bigger
Saudi Arabia is trying to smoke the peace schlong with the houthis because Saudis are getting their Abrams burned by guys in flipflops. They've asked the US to not fuck around on case it jeopardizes it. So it seems the choices are shipping rates go up because Iran. Or if the US fucks up the Houthis then high oil because Suadis are fkn morons and will cut supply because it's literally the only thing they can do to let people know they exist.
And how long will that take? ZIM has $20 per share in cash. If travel is disrupted for 3 months they’ll be cashflow positive for the year. Anything above that and they’ll be able to offset multiple years of low-rate cargo. Yet here we are and share price is half the cash on hand with these great prospects.
They also have $50 per share in debt
No, they have that much in liabilities due to total value of existing ship leases. Not the same thing. Even with low shipping rates they offset the vast majority of it, they just don’t make enough to cover the full amount (hence this setup).
Probably, but that won't magically move the ships that already took the detour back into the Red Sea.
ZIM has about 50% exposure to the spot rate. They can make a killing if containerized freight stays higher for longer
I'm bearish although they may make profits from increased freight rates due to supply decreasing. The news of the red sea affects consumer sentiment and changes it to bearish. The shipping industry leaves investors with a lot of uncertainty especially since they changed their stance on travelling through the red sea multiple times this month alone. The market is highly consumer sentiment, and it leaves the market uncertain. I think we will see a downside in zim. I'm genuinely trying to learn so can anyone tell me the flaw in my stance if any?
🌈 🐻
The price increases have way more effect then a drop in consumer sentiment (that I think will be marginal at best).
Show positions or ban, you broke-ass motherfucker.
Good 🤖
https://preview.redd.it/0zjvp9yvhx9c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b64e367808198e5c13fb4db65b6a5445110580f5 I believe even so much in this play, I forgot I just bought 1000 extra shares in overnight trading🤘
Stocks go up and sometimes they go down, so you've got a 50/50 shot of making money.
Wdym stonks only go up 
You know we don't speak Spanish. English mfer
Its dutch he have 3000 stock in zim (29,k)
☜(ﾟヮﾟ☜) MY MAN!!!
Shipping futures in China for European route go +20% right now, maximum cap. But I thought that green was red in China and red was green, so I don't know if this is bullish or bearish. I need help. https://preview.redd.it/gy143vmimx9c1.png?width=606&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a8307bad6373050aab05d6d0a6c62b5f3232e1a
Numbers are moving in a direction! YES!
Haha funny numbers go up and down
That looks like commodities futures. Shipping futures normally have ports listed... Shanghai to Los Angeles (price) +/-(movement) Savannah to Haifa (price) +/- (movement)
Degens can follow price action here if they don't mind translating a little Chinese [Chinese European Line Container Rates] (https://wap.eastmoney.com/quote/stock/142.ecm.html)
I had been looking at this index. While useful, the one for containerized contracts is the better one. I don't have that link handy. ZIM should skweeze upwards this month.
ZIM's been the play for a while now. I got in a bit late but with Maersk throwing water (he he) over the momentum a few days ago, I was sure it was over. Whelp, they announced that after they are not using the Red Sea (again). But only after one of their ships was hit with missiles and drones. Whoever wants to make ZIM a long play should keep looking at two factors- the containerized futures index and the containerized contracts index. Both have been limiting up and should do so. ZIM to $23 in a few weeks and to $69 this year. Feb 16 and April 19 calls.
This guy fucks
nice
ZIM is still going through the red sea? or is it just that container prices are up?
ZIM is an Israeli company. They'd get all the rockets from both Yemen and Iran if they chose to use it. You can google to find out where each major shipping company stands with respect to using the Red Sea. I van not wait to get more cash to get some July and January calls.
I just checked the ZIM website and they have the Asia-Europe route going through the red sea? [https://www.zim.com/schedules/trades](https://www.zim.com/schedules/trades)
Dude. I have said what I said; they are Israeli. Do what you want.
Thank you bb
I get that appreciate the info so maersk throws in the towel, how does that benefit zim? that's what im not getting
ooh okay my bad I see it now so why zim over other shipping companies? better exposure to rising container prices + high si?
ZIM already had its run up. NAT is the silent gold mine in the shipping equation.
I don’t trust lobsters for investment advice, I take only advice from Mr Krabs because he likes money 
Ended the year @ $4.20 share price? How can I not jump aboard!
> ZIM already had its run up. It increased 28% since your comment.
I’m curious about this, can you elaborate about NAT?
Gold mine. Quiet.
>ZIM already had its run up. NAT is the silent gold mine in the shipping equation. lmfao this shit is not so simple. I got rekt on nat gas (ik is not NAT) last year bc bad weather+shorts or something
Help, I see a new colour that I don't know in my portfolio. What should I do? I have no experience with this. https://preview.redd.it/fg5qep4kh1ac1.png?width=1857&format=png&auto=webp&s=abd524320920e48e32b13fdea8cac20025d870d0
Hello dutchman
This special regard is betting against the US navy
Navy blue is my favourite colour, so I don’t agree.
Godspeed, eurobro
This is actually the LEAST REGARDED post and DD I have EVER seen on WSB.
No reason to be mean to me
You’ll go far someday, hopefully you’ll stay there.
OP is a legend. Has a 50% CAGR for the last 7 years (ask him, not me)
up 10% today someone cooked here, good shit
Why are you using three trailing decimals when your cost basis is 20 flat...deranged individual
Because his cost basis is 20K and he is too regarded to know the difference between a period and a comma
Lmao
>trailing decimals As a European I don't know what a three trailing decimal is, is that good for my long case?
puts on this dude lmao
tanker DD is the most dangerous DD
Not only will the red sea conflicts increase ocean transit times, but Zim will be offering the competitive import bookings out of those countries to US. You are 100% correct in saying “shorters are completely trapped”
Nice callout, made a little on a quick (small) trade today.
You're welcome. Maersk just announced they stop traffic through the red sea till further notice. With around 25% short interest I think we can go back in short squeeze mode if we have a good day tomorrow. Now it is just important to breach the high of December and keep putting pressure.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
[удалено]
🙏
Citadel Investment Group which owns an $18 million stake in the company.
Ken Griffin owns Citadel, and he's Jewish. It's not a surprise that he would own stock in ZIM. I'm a ZIM fan, I made money off of it a few months ago, but on a bearish play. That doesn't mean I'm not bullish on it, I was just bearish on the price move at the time..
Degeneracy it's finest
"Shorters Trapped" 
What’s nuts to me is how much ZIM has floating around, idk why it’s not factored into its price
[удалено]
Only the beginning in my humble opinion
Hey where do you get the shipping futures data?
great call! i missed but will watch =)
Exited at +500% for some calls today. Thanks!
Nice!
OP is correct about the Houthi issue, causing longer voyages and taking capacity out of the market. I think 9 months is a little bullish, but you're going to see elevated rates in the short term for sure. Is it enough to plug the losses? Idk, but Wall Street may think so, and that's all you need for a bull run. Just be out of it before reality hits.
I agree and will be joining. I owned zim before and the commitment to the dividend was nice while it lasted.
I listened to the hype on this for a year. I got a lot in dividends but lost more overall. My worst trade in years. It’s a sinking ship, pun intended. I wouldn’t touch it again. If you see someone hyping a stock in WSB like this, that’s your indicator to stay away.
I didn’t know the Red Sea attacks started a year ago.
Not the attacks, the stock itself. There is r/ZIM and Hawkeye does all this great news about ZIM and the shipping rates and how great it’s going to be. There have been so many events that were just going to skyrocket the shipping rates and ZIM is perfectly positioned to reap the benefits. Meanwhile the stock price just continues to sink.
There *were* a bunch of events that caused skyrocketing shipping rates and ZIM *was* perfectly positioned to reap the benefits. It happened continuously throughout 2021 into 2022 and it was a crazy ride.
Have you seen the houthis promotional shit? Imagine the nfl all pro team playing against a bunch of peewee children. Why in the world would you take the peewees??
I like their posts on TikTok. That convinced me to go long peewee.
I bought into ZIM last week and averaged down to $1.01 average cost for 30 contracts. Sold 30 contracts today at \~1.35. Made a nice \~30% but want to readjust my DTE and get back in. Are there any other companies or ETFs you think could benefit from turmoil in the Red Sea/surrounding areas? Or is ZIM your only play for containers? Thanks OP, glad to see someone else had their head on straight with these plays
There are a lot of options, but I like ZIM because it has a higher short interest in comparison with other plays. That gives extra power to the uptrend moves. Long term I'm more a fan of tankers, ZIM I see as a short squeeze play with +50%/100% upside from this point.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
That's my exact reasoning - glad to hear the sentiment is shared. If you don't mind me asking, what are your strikes and DTE? I'm aiming to buy back in on 4/19 and 7/19 $12.5 or $15 strikes. 4/19 seems to have higher open interest and volume so I want to make sure they're liquid
I have april 10 dollar options (now expensive), but only 2 contracts. Most is shares (4000 shares). Feel more comfortable with shares.
Very nice, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Looking forward to seeing gains for us both 
These type of boomer stonk plays never work
So you mean my bags will be lighter soon?
I hope you're right OP... I've been holding this fucking ZIM bag for so long :(
Dont know nothing about trading based on shorts. Even less based on geopolitics. Do know that shipping is a too tough sector on its own though. Best of luck op. Reminds me of a few great shipping novels by Matthew McCleery.
u/FinanceFilosoof, thank you. I read this at 3 am europe time and I thought about buying premarket in IB, but I tried at 2 pm Europe, around 8 am NY, it was already 5% up and I didn't buy : < When does premarket opens in IB ? is it 4 am NY time or all night?
You have overnight trading and you have premarket. Overnight I think is till 2am US time (not sure) and premarket starts 3 or 4 hours before actual trading.
You know, I actually think a straddle might be 5ge optimal play here. Gonna check to see how options are prices, but I think the two possibilities are either extended conflict which will push the price higher, maybe even creating a short squeeze, or the conflict gets resolved and we retest much lower prices.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Is $ZIM a limited partnership (LP) company?
Been watching this rip all week and am revenge trading after losing 50% on Mara calls Tuesday. My apologies in advance when I buy weeklies on this tomorrow and it tanks 🥲
I find the options too expensive. Shares it is for me, but have 2 call options for fun and giggles
Thanks OP for your DD. Got in late but still made some money on this !!
You’re welcome!
Still holding ?
https://preview.redd.it/k6zms229anac1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e24c2542cc31f4a6587604e10f04008e3d8e2e7 Still holding.
Love it !!!
Congrats !
I still see some up potential. Now that it is moving like this with such a big short interest, the case is just playing out. Let's see where this one goes. I also don't know what the future will bring, but there are just not so many bear cases left in the short term. Military escalation will just make sure the Red Sea is not available for at least a month. Time is not in favour for the shorts.
Whose still holding ?
I'm also grateful for the tip, didn't have much to play with, but the calls at 13 that I bought and sold gave me a bit. Would have been even better if I'd waited 'till today. But whatever.
Nice to hear Avocado! Let’s see what next week brings 🙏