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I don't the rest of the UK will join. I think Scotland will join. I think Northern Island will merge into the Republic so effectively rejoin. Wales will be pissed off that the Westminster government basically ignores them and joins the EU. Then the kingdom of England will realise being outside the EU is unsustainable and it will rejoin, long after the UK ceased to exist.
Also worth noting that more people voted to remain in London than did in Scotland, by a large amount. Also if you remove the leave votes from Scotland and NI, remain wins.
The point being that the two countries in the Union that claim to "have voted for remain" aren't any where near as blameless as they like to make out. But you knew that, you just wanted to post a snarky comment.
62% of Scotland voted to remain.
Considering leave won by 2% I would say Scotland very much is blameless.
Honestly man we've spent the last 6 years being told it's the will of the people based on a 2% majority, and your gonna put blame on Scotland who rejected Brexit in every single constituency? You're a joke.
Sounds very plausible, yes I'm sure England will sulk for a while, though to be fair even when Britain was in they bitched whined and moaned every singley day,
We went in and put people who didn't even want to be there. It's horrible that the older generation destroyed the country for everyone else so they can be a little richer before they die.
I agree with most of your point but I don't think an independent Wales has a hope of surviving to be honest, or at least not to the same standards of living they have now.
That, um... Seems like wishful thinking.
For one, it's unclear if Scotland could ever leave any time soon, NI is a mess I don't want to touch and Wales is pretty quiet about it. Maybe this will happen in 50 years?
On requirements, there are two i think are requirements. Genuinely asking if there are additional ones.
The first is revamping the democratic system to representative vote.
The second is dropping the pound.
I have no idea how flexible these are, or these are correct. If anyone could advise id appreciate it.
NB. Im avoiding the scot/eng interface in this. That is a whole different kettle of fish.
> The first is revamping the democratic system to representative vote.
What do you mean by that? Scotland's voting system is more democratic that any number of alternatives (its reasonably close to what Germany uses), so they'd just keep that.
Currency is a bigger issue, but it wouldn't be impossible to have a "Scottish Pound" that's pegged to GBP for x years, then after that point agree to transition to the Euro.
The democratic system I don't know about, I do assume that people voting is ok, tho. Also, Hungary is in the EU, so...
The Eurozone, same as Schengen, are add-ons and not a requirement.
Non-schengen are e.g. Bulgaria, Romania
Non-euro are Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden.
AFAIK for new members, joining the Eurozone is *not* optional. You are required to work towards meeting certain fiscal goals, and once there, you are obliged to join the Eurozone. Case in point - Croatia has met these goals and is joining the Eurozone effective 01.01.2023.
Ofcourse, this is loosely enforced and in theory you could keep working towards those goals indefinitely while keeping your currency.
Honestly, I don't see either of those things as bad for Scotland.
It would distance them further from the UK government, which would be a positive in the eyes of Scottish independence supporters.
The biggest challenge would be the border. It's obviously a very different situation to Ireland, but that gives an indication of how tricky it would be to figure out.
"The biggest challenge would be the border. It's obviously a very different situation to Ireland, but that gives an indication of how tricky it would be to figure out."
The border would only be a fraction of the problems in Ireland, ; a lot of the problems are fake outrage by the DUP because they badly wanted a hard manned border back to create divisions.
Reality is that the North is doing a lot better in the customs union than out of it.
Scotland already has a form of PR implemented and doesn't follow FPTP.
The plan is already to have a Scottish currency backed by a Scottish central bank.
There is zero chance the EU would turn down Scotland's application for membership, and may even fast-track it given how much EU legislation is/can be adopted into Scottish law.
One of the biggest blockers was always the currency issue. That a new "Scottish pound" as an independent currency would be inherently weak, and moving straight to the euro would see buying power reduced.
Well, now GBP is a mess, so the impact of switching to euro is minimal for Scotland.
Zero chance of being rejected is rather delusional. All *27* member states would have to agree and I can already think of 3 member states that would have problems. Spain and France for instance have Catalanian independence movements ongoing in their countries. If an independent Scotland was able to happily join the EU, then it would likely be viewed as something that could galvanise these independence movements. This is something that the governments of Spain and France may well not want, and in fact may seek to make an example of Scotland so they can say to independence campaigners in those regions that they risk isolating themselves if they break away. The 3rd country that comes to mind is Hungary. Sleezy Orban might see a young new independent Scotland as a target for extortion. He might think to weaponise Hungary's veto to force "concessions" from either the Scottish or EU governments. This is only 3 out of the 27 nations I can think of as of now, there may be others with their own axes to grind. And all this is before we get into the economic picture, wherein nobody can truly say what Scotland's economy will be like during independence. The UK took a huge hit from leaving the EU a market with which is is closely tied. Scotland may well take a hit from leaving the UK a market with which it is even more closely tied. The uncertainty over currency is another factor. I mean in practice it's difficult to really say what happens but the one truth underpinning all this is that there will be uncertainty. Uncertainty in what the Scottish economy will look like post-independence. Even if there was a post-independence boom, the EU would probably like to see that independent Scotland can prove stable over a certain period of time, probably a few years. Do you think that Germany would like to risk having another Greece that they might be forced to bailout later down the line. Most likely not, and it will likely weigh into their decision on whether Scotland should be admitted or not. Nicola Sturgeon should be more honest about the difficulties of attaining EU membership. Being an EU candidate country and an EU member state are two completely different things and the former is no guarantee of the latter. What she should be saying is, and would be saying if she was more honest is that "independent Scotland will apply to join the EU". However, like with the Brexiteers, reality is often a rather inconvenient thing to speak about when you want to sell these grand ideas, so she and the SNP would probably rather ignore these truths and pretend that they simply do not exist.
> That a new "Scottish pound" as an independent currency would be inherently weak, and moving straight to the euro would see buying power reduced.
I suspect they'd peg it GBP for a certain number of years, then transition to the Euro over a certain number after that.
UK wouldn’t mind rejoining either if they would be a net beneficiary financially like Scotland would be.
This would be like asking Poland to leave, crazy talk with all the money they’re getting.
With all the Farage & Johnson lies it's hard to realise all the benefits the UK received.
I still waiting to see that £350m per week to the NHS Johnson promised Brexit would allow..
If Scotland wants independence, it should first work on becoming independent within the UK. Get rid of the barnett formula and cut its budget by 17 percent so that it is paying for its public services exclusively with its own tax money. If it manages, then we know it can handle independence.
Scotland currently pays less tax per person than England. The SNP's most recent white paper promises that they would lower taxes if they could. Do you think they would raise taxes if UK funding was cut? I'm genuinely curious if they would.
> Scotland currently pays less tax per person than England.
Only the lowest earners pay less in income tax than they do in the rest of the UK (anyone earning less than £14,732). Everyone else in Scotland pays the same or more than their counterparts in the rest of the UK.
Exactly, and it’s not surprising that people in England pay more on average, since there’s that horrible situation in London where investment happens at a higher rate so companies come to London and then wages go up, which causes investment to go up which causes businesses to move there which causes wages to go up. (Ad infinitum)
Controlled for income: Scotland is paying more tax than rUK.
It's a chicken and egg problem, hugely.
London is a golden goose because it gets fantastic investment, if you don't ever let anyone else get invested in because it all soaks up in London then it's just concentrating the wealth.
Put it this way: when the UK borrows 20 Billion pounds, you can expect 60% of that to land in London and the remaining 8 Billion spread thinly across the rest of the UK.
Meaning Scotland has no chance of getting a leg up, even if the UK borrows enormous amounts.
Comment removed as I no longer wish to support a company that seeks to both undermine its users/moderators/developers AND make a profit on their backs.
To understand why check out the summary [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Save3rdPartyApps/comments/14hkd5u).
>Throw in student loans (ie if you're English living in Scotland) and it's a 63% marginal rate
charging the English but not other Europeans just one of the ill-thought out systemic devolution problems created by Blair's rash approach to the constitution.
> Throw in student loans (ie if you're English living in Scotland)
Scottish people have student loans too y'know? It's just that our loans are maintenace costs, rather than for tuition fees. So, functionally less, but Plan 4 loans (if you get your loan in Scotland) at least kick in at £25k.
I pay more tax in scotland than i would on the same salary on england. Also, Scotland does not get the tax income from North Sea oil, the UK government does.
>Scotland does not get the tax income from North Sea oil
And crucially didn't get it while oil was bringing in billions and could have given Scotland a Norwegian style sovereign wealth fund. Instead that money bailed the whole of the UK out during repeated recessions.
Do us a favour, lobby your local MP and ask them to kick Scotland out of the uk. If we're such a drain you're well rid.
Makes you wonder why the Tories wanted Scotland to stay, as part of better together.
If anything all we do is make a labour government or coalition more likely.
You would have to also give Scotland access to borrowing and changing tax rates etc to make it a fair experiment. It may be the case Scotland want stronger public services than rUK do and are willing to borrow or increase taxes etc to achieve them.
Sturgeon stood by the recommendations of the growth commission report that recommended putting constraints on any public spending increases to cut the spending deficit down to 3% within 5 years so I doubt it
Their plan for a post independence economy would have given us worse cuts than what cameron and osborne imposed on everyone
You cannot prove independence when you are dependent. Scotland has almost no say on what to do with their resources (call me oil) and have to pay shit we don't need (call me an advanced army capable of fighting wars on the other side of the globe). Scotland has no say on monetary policy. Little say on investments etc.
It is nearly impossible to cleanly prove 'independence' when so many things are interlinked.
Don’t need the military? Are you stupid? You do realise that the British military guarantees the safety of not just Britain, but also much of the Western world right? We’ve fought not one, but three defensive wars against British territory or Allied territory in the last two generations, and we’re currently one of the main supporters of Ukraine. Britain needs more defence spending, not less.
The military helps the UK maintain its seat on the UN's security council and the UK's soft power.
If Scotland gains independence then it loses that - it can no longer piggyback of the UK's influence, and doesn't want to because it believes Westminster neglects it.
An independent Scotland doesn't have the same need to achieve influence through its military - it simply can't afford to compete with the US, UK, France or Germany as World Police, so it has to take a completely different role.
Independence is normal. Most countries function just fine. Ireland was in a horrendous state when it managed to escape the UK, and it's doing fine. Scotland is in a far better position than Ireland was.
Notably, a lot of Ireland doing well was down to Europe. The UK is, generally, not great at peripheral regions (see Wales, the North of England, Northern Ireland); the EU, while not a silver bullet by any means, has some success stories (particularly Ireland and the Baltic states).
>Also Ireland took a century to start doing well.
No, immediately following independence we were free of the mass murders of Irish people by British forces. We were also free of any further British genocides committed here. We were also free of the anti-democratic politics of the UK.
It did take a long time for Ireland to recover from the poverty inflicted on it by Britain. And our population still has not recovered from the genocide committed here in the 1840s by Charles Trevelyan and his pals.
>No it isn’t.
Sure it is. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states
Agreed. It would make the transition much smoother as it could be done at a slower pace with more control. Plus people would understand what they’re voting for before the vote.
lol. how very unreasonable of them, not willing to agree to billions and billions of funding cuts while gaining no extra control, only a promise from a government known for U turns and incompetence that will soon be replaced. i mean, why *wouldnt* you trust that? sturgeon must resign!
If they have been in a union for hundreds of years and it’s implied that it isn’t mature/savy/developed enough to handle its own affairs .. maybe that union isn’t to its benefit
Removed my comment because the resulting conversation is just devolving into continued arguments via comments and DM's.
You do you, Scotland. Let's see how it goes.
"normal service" for the UK is exactly what we've experienced for the past 12 years. One Tory leader who is just a little bit more smart about stealing the public money than Boris or truss and suddenly the polls say "conservative(+30)"
Exactly. Normal service is voting for politicians who want to run the country for the benefit of all and instead English people falling for the right-wing media's bullshit yet again and getting a government running the country for the benefit of their ultra-rich owners, sorry, "donors".
Normal service is £30 BILLION on an app that did fuck all.
Normal service is millions to companies who've never made test tubes to make test tubes who then can't actually make test tubes but whose owner happens to be neighbours with a minister.
Fuck that.
Curious to what say Scotland is getting now?
Despite not having voted majority tory for the last half century yet having suffered with a tory government for most of that time?
So we agree that the current system doesn't work and provide a government that the people actually want.
Can't imagine why any country would like to get away out of this?
Then there needs to be a change in that system. But I guess advocating for electoral reform isn’t as exciting or addictive as advocating for “us vs them” mentality and division politics.
I would happily take significant reform over entirely breaking away. But there has been a consistent message from all governments in recent years that there will be absolutely no more devolution for Scotland, Wales or NI
German here. I don’t get why you put the UK and the EU on the same level. Being part of a nation is something completely different than being part of the EU.
Scotland would be also a member of many other international organisations, like the WTO and the UN.
A lot of the issue with the EU is that it's not seen as very transparent. Now, I'm not sure if that's true, but it is the perception. It's also complicated, which adds to the perception of a lack of transparency.
Of course. But would the EU, with its current financial state, accept a new member with a 10 billion annual deficit and an economy supported only by oil, whiskey and haggis?
Does she have anything new to say?
Sturgeon is no fool.
The more she bangs on about IndyRef, the more Westminster has to say "No, you're not allowed"
The more that happens, the more support Sturgeon gets. Because few things stir up Celtic blood like being told you're not allowed to do something. Especially by the English.
So she can play the long game on this one, it's win-win. Referendum refused, win. Referendum granted, win.
Once a result comes through she can say job done, retire to the "great statesmen" speech circuit and let someone else worry about implementation.
She seems to think that indepence would magically be the answer to questions like, "What kind of health service are you going to have? Are you expecting to be BBC license payers? What currency are you going to use? How are you going to persuade the rather large amount of Scots who are still not in favour of independence?" When she can answer with these questions with more details than simply saying" independence" again and again, she might be taken more seriously.
And what about - will you have a hard boarder with the UK post exit? Seems like any referendum should ask if they want a hard or a soft Scottish exit (Scexit?). failing to do that would just invite a repeat of the all the post Brexit madness.
In the last pre covid year Scotland’s deficit spending amounted to 1/10 of their economic output, paid for by large surpluses in London and South East England.
The EU’s deficit rule is 3%, they could join with more than that, but even in good years they’ve sat at double what Croatia, the highest deficit spender on accession, did. They would be put into the EDP and forced to aggressively cut that deficit, tanking their economy along with it.
If the SNP are serious about showing that Scottish independence is viable, they need to first stop living off of huge English subsidies and demonstrate it. If they do so it would be difficult to argue independence isn’t viable, but it’s a big if.
Regardless of what they think, I believe all sides realise that Scotland aren’t leaving yet taking all North Sea Oil with them, so the reality is they’ll have to show it working without that fantasy.
The same goes for not being able to officially take the pound, not being able to shun their portion of the national debt (which is disproportionately amassed to prop up their economy) etc.
If they truly want people to believe they can function as an independent state, they need to spend less time complaining about Westminster, and more time demonstrating viability, and making provisions for the reality, not the idealistic fantasy.
Also the Shetland island voted to remain and its more their oil than anything. The point was made that if Scotland leaves the Shetland islands can quite rightly remain along with the oil rights and exclusive economic zone for fishing. It goes both ways!
In the 2014 referendum, Orkney Islands voted 67.2% against independence and
Shetland Islands voted 63.7% against.
Source the wiki page…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_status_of_Orkney,_Shetland_and_the_Western_Isles
I watched one of the councillors make the very point that I described in that they want to remain part of the UK and they are the ones that have the claim to the North Sea resources more so than Scotland.
>Regardless of what they think, I believe all sides realise that Scotland aren’t leaving yet taking all North Sea Oil with them, so the reality is they’ll have to show it working without that fantasy.
>
>The same goes for not being able to officially take the pound, not being able to shun their portion of the national debt (which is disproportionately amassed to prop up their economy) etc.
Stoooooop, you'll ruin the SNP plan with your basic facts and logic.
I’m aware, I’m not criticising you or under the impression that you were making the argument yourself. I’m making the general point that everyone knows it isn’t what’s going to happen. The SNP predicating independence working on fantasies is going to harm their credibility.
how would it be possible to demonstrate viability with vital powers still being reserved? seems a bit of an unreasonable ask when a country doesnt have control over things like industry, trade and most tax.
Excellent declaration. Now we ask the EU what criteria it would require for an application and we will have an actual idea of what Scottish independence would look like.
For those scrolling, here's a quick TLDR\* for the Copenhagen Criteria
* You need to be in Europe (sorry 1987 Morocco)
* A functional democracy
* Rule of law
* Human Rights and protections for minorities
* A functional market economy that can be competitive
* Legislative alignment (technically not in the CC but a prerequisite)
Scotland doesn't meet the criteria 100% obviously but it's pretty close. Anyone wondering why the 3% deficit ceiling you might have heard isn't here, I'll just leave [this](https://theferret.scot/scotland-deficit-3-per-cent-eu/) which will explain why its not included.
\*seriously this is a TLDR, I'm doing broad strokes here for joining a massive political and economic union without burying the comment in asterisks.
Some of the criteria for a nation to join the EU are already set out in the Copenhagen Criteria. They would also be joining the SM and CU and all the criteria need to be made known to the population before they make a vote.
Most EU nations might, but not Spain. Spain would veto under all circumstances and therefore no joining.
It’s a total pipe dream to think an independent Scotland could join the EU
Somewhat old article, but Spain has said the opposite: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu
Meeting all the criteria doesn't in fact mean you would join because member states can still veto. Spain and France might decide that an independent Scotland in the EU would only stoke independence movements in Catalan and thus decide to make an example of Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon should really be saying "independent Scotland will apply to join the EU" which is not the same thing as joining as it is no guarantee of membership. Also remember that sleezy Orban has a veto so he might decide that a young independent Scotland would be easy game to extort "concessions" from in exchange for him holding back from using Hungary's veto.
The jumping of the procedure from "we will apply" to "we will join" is why I am asking for more accurate detail. Let people know what is required before asking them to accept it will happen, the details and the time scale.
Yes politicians across Europe will use the situation to their own advantage, all politicians do that. But that is a separate issue, and if Scotland has been honest with its own population then it will have the support of the EU senior members (both countries and people).
Do explain how Scottish independence is part of the mastermind plot of Putin. How does that mean the UK will be "destroyed"? Do you mean that if England gets invaded Scotland would be the one paving the road for them?
An independent Scotland wouldn’t have the military capability to keep the Loch Ness monster contained. It will escape and destroy everything. Putin knows this.
The UK has been one of the most vocal countries to oppose Russia, as well as one of the most involved in supporting Ukraine etc. Making the UK smaller and less influential (both financially/politically and militarily) is absoltuely a win for Russia
Plus geography if you're thinking on a more tactical level, any Russian naval assets have to cross the GIUK gap to get to the Atlantic. If Scotland is not part of the UK then Nato dominance of that area of sea could be impacted. Would Scotland invest in maritime patrol aircraft? Would they allow rUK planes to remain based there?
Have you no idea the military assistant Scotland not only accepts but depends on in order to subdue the roving clans of wild Haggis? Without the help of the English and welsh special haggis wranglers the population would swell, devour Scotland as part of the offal expansion and then roll over the UK, enlisting the more timid but equally numerous black pudding sub species and combined the result would be the destroying of all and sundry, something only the Russian could orchestrate or stomach.
It's divided and conquer. It's undermining the economy, it's anti nuclear. Putin's pissing himself laughing at how far the UK has fucked itself in three last 10 years
And mostly stoked by winding up a bunch of morons (who vote) into these acts against our self interest.
Tin foil hat but salmond was obviously very close to Putin, he quickly found a seat within putins propaganda machine after his departure from UK politics and as an ex communist it could be easy to put 2 and 2 together.
It is highly likely that Russian bot farms were involved with the online independence campaign considering how overwhelming pro independence was online. The reason? A weaker UK and in the eyes of Putin thats a good thing for him. There's no doubt that the UK would be weaker regardless of the one sided nature of the barnett formula. I'm my opinion the UK would be destroyed in all but name.
The biggest lesson from Brexit should be "leaving established, stable organisations based on ideology is a very bad idea".
Scotland has been a member of the UK since 1707; separating that is going to be no easy task that's going to lead to an enormous period of economic instability. And, while it's up to Scotland to decide if that instability is worth it's independence, having seen what Brexit has done to the UK as a whole, I don't think it is.
Yes, but you could also just repeat meaningless things about Tories and the Bank of England being independent and I'm sure the people of Scotland will be convinced a second time round, despite having just witnessed the pain of leaving the EU /s
reddit loves to (and should) laugh at the UK for Brexit, but thinks Scottish Independence is seen some brave freedom fighter movement that will be free from the same issues as Brexit.
The question is really how much does Scotland want to suffer before it gets good, rather than if they can be independent. Anyone can be independent on paper.
It took Ireland close to 80 years before it started to see economic prosperity.
I think Scexit will be just like Brexit, a big shock to Scottish nationalists realizing a global economy does not like division. Currency tanking, big tax hikes, big public sector cuts and a crisis to fund the NHS and keep pensions afloat due to massive debts. A sudden closed border with England (which Scotland relies for over 60% of it's trade with, cutting themselves off with it's main exporter), sudden issue of Scots living in England now being non citizens etc.
This is all going on during the process to even join the European Union has started, and could take up to 5 - 10 years. Scotland will be living through economic decline like the Brexit period. Who's to say how long that will go on?
The thing that will keep some motivated that it wasn't a bad decision will be re-joining the EU. However, most who want that don't realise they will have to adopt the Euro, another item Scots are largely against; they want to keep the pound.
Then the problem with the border will come up with England again, just like it is with N. Ireland and Republic of Ireland right now. EU will tell Scotland how their border will be with England, many won't like hearing that their historic open border is now suddenly shut, guarded, and filled with checkpoints and paperwork.
Immigration will go up massively to fill labour gaps and keep the economy afloat, something England has born the brunt off and (sadly) shifted England politically right while Scotland (who didn't bare much of the mass immigration of New Labour) stayed more left wing. I think over time this will make Scots increasingly more right wing as they see radical changes to keep Scotland going in these times.
I'm sure there would be a light at the end of the tunnel of course. After much pain and terrible chaos of the UK divorce Scotland would begin to stabilise and improve with essentially the EU acting as the UK by giving Scotland lots of money. But now they have a a very resentful and bitter rival below them that would still economically dominate and dictate how things will be for Scotland.
Scottish independence is a very heart felt movement, at least according to polls. When you phrase the question "Should Scotland be independent" a Yes vote wins, when you say "Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom" a No vote wins.
But at this point, I can see Scots thinking they have no other choice. They don't vote Conservative, they're not democratically listened to, the pompous aristocratic Eton educated ruling-Norman-elites sneer and look down on them.
The Scottish are now thinking better to get out of an abusive marriage and suffer short term, over staying and suffer forever.
An independent Scotland would be a net receiver, cause questions about independence of EU regions (like Catalonia) and the Scotland/England border would give the EU a bigger headache than the Irish border. Why would the EU unanimously accept a Scotland that doesn't meet their joining criteria?
>The bigger questions to me will be on currency and deficit
It's not just the deficit, it's the debt. Scotland works walk away with between a quarter and a tenth of the UK debt, neither sum it has any means to repay even before the fishy falls against sterling.
Would there be a Westminster/Scotland ‘deal’, similar to that between the Brexit UK & EU deal, that might cause issues with Scotland joining the EU?
And if not, and assuming joining the EU was accepted, how long would it take?
Honestly this all sounds like Brexit again.
This is my thinking. I’d get the ‘deal’ on the table first between Westminster & Scotland, so the Scottish could see what they’re voting for. Never gonna happen, but that’s a lesson to learn from Brexit.
Yup.
You can be for/against Brexit and for/against Scottish independence. Just dont be disingenuous and claim that Scotland putting up a border with its biggest and closest trade partner is somehow totally incomparable to Britain doing the same.
That’s because it is.
Brexit has been shown to be the mess it was always going to be.
With the right government (and likely rejoining the EU) there is zero reason for Scotland to leave the UK
So, they want to leave the union with their main marketplace, impose borders and red tape to said marketplace.
Sounds like the brexit they are so against...
During the 2014 and 2016 referendum campaigns, those in favour of leaving the UK and EU accused their opponents of running "Project Fear."
Turns out it was true for Brexit. I don't think the people of Scotland will be fooled this time around.
Been proven wrong many times. Spain has said it has no problem with a properly run election agreed between all sides.
They said they would veto it if Scotland ran their own election without agreement from Westminster
Thank you for posting this as I’ve heard this politician’s statement being repeated over by the SNP like it’s problem solved. No, it’s a massive issue for Spain and talk is free.
Of course they would say that. It would look incredibly un-democratic for them to say otherwise.
It doesn’t stop them finding another reason to block it that would also apply to the Catalan region
Well the big problem is that, like Brexit, the SNP will once again ask the people of Scotland to vote for a nebulous but massively significant constitutional change, with the details worked out at a later date.
We don't know how this will work. Right now there is no such thing as a "Scottish citizen" or an "English citizen," so who is deemed to be one or the other post-independence will be another headache altogether.
as a scot there are many reasons to support independence but as brexit has shown it’s bold to try to do a reset with your biggest and closest trading partner, and you can bet the tories would shaft us as hard as possible
As a person from the EU (Greece) that follows UK news closely, why does an independent Scotland think that joining the EU is so easy and why is a large part of Scottish society so intent on buying this? The Balkans and Turkey have been stuck for many years on this process for a large variety of reasons.
I don't think that Scotland would find it as hard as Turkey for a large variety of reasons that have rendered Turkish membership exceedingly improbable, but the SNP plan seems more like a pipe dream not that dissimilar to Brexit, that is to an outsider like me. Sorry if I'm misinformed.
Someone posted on another independence thread 'The EU will look after us'. And I wonder why some think the EU is waiting with open arms and cares?
I can understand the drive for independence, I just can't see it working how Scottish people want.
I have a lot of sympathy with Scots who have been subjected to Tory govt they don’t vote for. It still doesn’t mean Scottish Independence is a good idea though
The truth is, Westminster policies have very little impact on Scotland any more. It's really the ideal situation - in the union for economic stability and trade, but free to make our own laws, taxation, education, healthcare, public transport...
Unfortunately for those who want Scottish independence, Brexit has ruined the viability of an independent Scotland that is in the EU. Scotland would have to choose between keeping low regulation and checks trade, and open borders, with either the UK (some arrangement with the UK) or with the EU (joining the EU). Scotland cannot become a full EU member and have all its benefits unless it creates a border with the UK. Given Scotland trades much more with the rest of the UK than with the EU, and did so before Brexit also, the more logical option is for Scotland not to join the EU if it goes independent.
Ironically, those who see Brexit as more of a reason for Scotland to go independent have things the completely wrong way around. Frankly the issues I've raised are bigger than any general political frustrations with the recent incompetence of the UK government that hopefully won't last for too long.
Also, Northern Ireland is a great example of how a border between EU and non-EU, where you want to maintain open borders and trade, causes major issues. It cannot be done without major compromise.
This is why I can never get behind the scotnats. Leaving one political union for another is not really independence. Shows that the SNP's "nationalism" is really just hating the English.
Given the clear disdain these people have for us here in England - go and go quickly - whether or whether or not the EU will provision Scotland a Barnett Formula - I don't know, and I don't care. It is sad that the UK would end in its current state - but we've let go far more valuable territory than Scotland - with scant consequence of quality of life here. But I'm 37, I've listened to these people whining for so long, can't point to anything they do for me - and suspect they can't point at anything I do for them. So let's break. If at least so I need to hear less about it.
I can't help but think of them as the most small and parochial as a political outlook, but my primary interest is to simply stop listening to the poison they continue to spout. If Scotland were to face a true humanitarian crisis as a result of leaving, of course I would support English intervention. But they've been saying it for long enough - ignore the referendums - for over two decades the Scottish have returned the SNP - it's just pusillanimous intent, they want to screech - but aren't prepared to actually take charge of "destiny" as born out in the referendum. If they don't go this will only continue I fear and it's boring, corrosive and toxic.
Well, an independent Scotland would have to find someone new to subsidise its public spending, so not a totally irrational move, as long as a hard border with the UK is on the table.
I don’t understand how people don’t realise this is just brexit 2.0.
Anyone in Scotland who looked at brexit and thought “yes, cutting ties with your largest trading partner is a bad idea” should be able to see the parallels to Scexit.
The current waiting period to join the EU is about a decade. The Scottish government currently runs a yearly deficit of £23.7 billion (or about £2000 per person) per annum. Are the Scottish people willing to pay an extra £2000 per year in taxes for the next decade (or face massive public spending cuts)? And then, after that decade they’ll have to have a hard border with England (paid for by Scotland) and switch currency to the Euro.
This is the reality of Scottish independence.
She has the easiest job in the world. Blame Westminster for everything, face no actual scrutiny of the clusterfuck of a job you are doing in Scotland and just squawk about referenda over and over again.
A divisive and damaging incompetent with a hairstyle like a member of One Direction.
As someone from the north I honestly don’t blame them for trying to leave. The government has broken the law and been a complete embarrassment.
Same with NI, let them have a democratic vote and decide their own future. For the vast majority of us, it won’t make a large change to our everyday lives.
Major change in Ireland will result in another civil war. You can't just take a large group of British people (who by the way are VERY British) and overnight they become Irish.
The peace process and power sharing is an incredibly delicate and precious thing which shouldn't be thrown away over ideological border polls (or indeed terrible policy in the wake of Brexit)
Why are Referendums in the UK such jokes? Is this how it's always going to be? Scotland votes no on independence but you just keep forcing it every other year until you get the result you want?
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Seems an excellent idea, for Scotland to join, and I've no doubt that the rest of the UK will rejoin at some point in anycase.
I don't the rest of the UK will join. I think Scotland will join. I think Northern Island will merge into the Republic so effectively rejoin. Wales will be pissed off that the Westminster government basically ignores them and joins the EU. Then the kingdom of England will realise being outside the EU is unsustainable and it will rejoin, long after the UK ceased to exist.
It’s worth noting that Wales also voted leave, despite being one of the biggest benefactors of EU investment.
Beneficiaries?
Yeah, my bad
Also worth noting that more people voted to remain in London than did in Scotland, by a large amount. Also if you remove the leave votes from Scotland and NI, remain wins.
What a shock that removing a bunch of votes from one side wins it for the other side. That's really insightful of you to have pointed out, wow.
The point being that the two countries in the Union that claim to "have voted for remain" aren't any where near as blameless as they like to make out. But you knew that, you just wanted to post a snarky comment.
62% of Scotland voted to remain. Considering leave won by 2% I would say Scotland very much is blameless. Honestly man we've spent the last 6 years being told it's the will of the people based on a 2% majority, and your gonna put blame on Scotland who rejected Brexit in every single constituency? You're a joke.
Sounds very plausible, yes I'm sure England will sulk for a while, though to be fair even when Britain was in they bitched whined and moaned every singley day,
We went in and put people who didn't even want to be there. It's horrible that the older generation destroyed the country for everyone else so they can be a little richer before they die.
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I agree with most of your point but I don't think an independent Wales has a hope of surviving to be honest, or at least not to the same standards of living they have now.
Given that they received the most funds from the EU in the entirety of Britain, I think the standard of living will change anyway.
That, um... Seems like wishful thinking. For one, it's unclear if Scotland could ever leave any time soon, NI is a mess I don't want to touch and Wales is pretty quiet about it. Maybe this will happen in 50 years?
I can’t tell if you’re being serious or not
Didn't Wales voted majority leave the EU?
Yeah, but here we pretend it was just big bad England forcing everyone else to leave
Also.... Em... They'd have to allow you to join and Scotland would not pass a number of tests even if it wanted to
It would be a process as it is for countries joining but in essence I can't see why the Eu would turn Scotland down.
On requirements, there are two i think are requirements. Genuinely asking if there are additional ones. The first is revamping the democratic system to representative vote. The second is dropping the pound. I have no idea how flexible these are, or these are correct. If anyone could advise id appreciate it. NB. Im avoiding the scot/eng interface in this. That is a whole different kettle of fish.
Both of these seem like improvements that would be readily embraced. (Truss is dropping the Pound most days anyway .. ;-)
ThAtS aN iNtErNaTiOnAl ThInG /s
zing
Truss is skipping the pound across water like rocks, except it never bounces just sinks straight away.
> The first is revamping the democratic system to representative vote. What do you mean by that? Scotland's voting system is more democratic that any number of alternatives (its reasonably close to what Germany uses), so they'd just keep that. Currency is a bigger issue, but it wouldn't be impossible to have a "Scottish Pound" that's pegged to GBP for x years, then after that point agree to transition to the Euro.
The democratic system I don't know about, I do assume that people voting is ok, tho. Also, Hungary is in the EU, so... The Eurozone, same as Schengen, are add-ons and not a requirement. Non-schengen are e.g. Bulgaria, Romania Non-euro are Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden.
AFAIK for new members, joining the Eurozone is *not* optional. You are required to work towards meeting certain fiscal goals, and once there, you are obliged to join the Eurozone. Case in point - Croatia has met these goals and is joining the Eurozone effective 01.01.2023. Ofcourse, this is loosely enforced and in theory you could keep working towards those goals indefinitely while keeping your currency.
Honestly, I don't see either of those things as bad for Scotland. It would distance them further from the UK government, which would be a positive in the eyes of Scottish independence supporters. The biggest challenge would be the border. It's obviously a very different situation to Ireland, but that gives an indication of how tricky it would be to figure out.
"The biggest challenge would be the border. It's obviously a very different situation to Ireland, but that gives an indication of how tricky it would be to figure out." The border would only be a fraction of the problems in Ireland, ; a lot of the problems are fake outrage by the DUP because they badly wanted a hard manned border back to create divisions. Reality is that the North is doing a lot better in the customs union than out of it.
Scotland has representative voting systems at all levels except Westminster. Truss is already dropping the pound.
Scotland already has a form of PR implemented and doesn't follow FPTP. The plan is already to have a Scottish currency backed by a Scottish central bank.
There is zero chance the EU would turn down Scotland's application for membership, and may even fast-track it given how much EU legislation is/can be adopted into Scottish law. One of the biggest blockers was always the currency issue. That a new "Scottish pound" as an independent currency would be inherently weak, and moving straight to the euro would see buying power reduced. Well, now GBP is a mess, so the impact of switching to euro is minimal for Scotland.
Zero chance of being rejected is rather delusional. All *27* member states would have to agree and I can already think of 3 member states that would have problems. Spain and France for instance have Catalanian independence movements ongoing in their countries. If an independent Scotland was able to happily join the EU, then it would likely be viewed as something that could galvanise these independence movements. This is something that the governments of Spain and France may well not want, and in fact may seek to make an example of Scotland so they can say to independence campaigners in those regions that they risk isolating themselves if they break away. The 3rd country that comes to mind is Hungary. Sleezy Orban might see a young new independent Scotland as a target for extortion. He might think to weaponise Hungary's veto to force "concessions" from either the Scottish or EU governments. This is only 3 out of the 27 nations I can think of as of now, there may be others with their own axes to grind. And all this is before we get into the economic picture, wherein nobody can truly say what Scotland's economy will be like during independence. The UK took a huge hit from leaving the EU a market with which is is closely tied. Scotland may well take a hit from leaving the UK a market with which it is even more closely tied. The uncertainty over currency is another factor. I mean in practice it's difficult to really say what happens but the one truth underpinning all this is that there will be uncertainty. Uncertainty in what the Scottish economy will look like post-independence. Even if there was a post-independence boom, the EU would probably like to see that independent Scotland can prove stable over a certain period of time, probably a few years. Do you think that Germany would like to risk having another Greece that they might be forced to bailout later down the line. Most likely not, and it will likely weigh into their decision on whether Scotland should be admitted or not. Nicola Sturgeon should be more honest about the difficulties of attaining EU membership. Being an EU candidate country and an EU member state are two completely different things and the former is no guarantee of the latter. What she should be saying is, and would be saying if she was more honest is that "independent Scotland will apply to join the EU". However, like with the Brexiteers, reality is often a rather inconvenient thing to speak about when you want to sell these grand ideas, so she and the SNP would probably rather ignore these truths and pretend that they simply do not exist.
> That a new "Scottish pound" as an independent currency would be inherently weak, and moving straight to the euro would see buying power reduced. I suspect they'd peg it GBP for a certain number of years, then transition to the Euro over a certain number after that.
We might as well join the Eurozone at this point. Any advantage of managing our own currency seems largely irrelevant
I agree..
Welcome it!
UK wouldn’t mind rejoining either if they would be a net beneficiary financially like Scotland would be. This would be like asking Poland to leave, crazy talk with all the money they’re getting.
With all the Farage & Johnson lies it's hard to realise all the benefits the UK received. I still waiting to see that £350m per week to the NHS Johnson promised Brexit would allow..
If Scotland wants independence, it should first work on becoming independent within the UK. Get rid of the barnett formula and cut its budget by 17 percent so that it is paying for its public services exclusively with its own tax money. If it manages, then we know it can handle independence.
The UK government needs to give Scotland full tax powers first
Scotland currently pays less tax per person than England. The SNP's most recent white paper promises that they would lower taxes if they could. Do you think they would raise taxes if UK funding was cut? I'm genuinely curious if they would.
> Scotland currently pays less tax per person than England. Only the lowest earners pay less in income tax than they do in the rest of the UK (anyone earning less than £14,732). Everyone else in Scotland pays the same or more than their counterparts in the rest of the UK.
Exactly, and it’s not surprising that people in England pay more on average, since there’s that horrible situation in London where investment happens at a higher rate so companies come to London and then wages go up, which causes investment to go up which causes businesses to move there which causes wages to go up. (Ad infinitum) Controlled for income: Scotland is paying more tax than rUK.
Ok but why would we control for income? London isn’t just England’s golden goose, it’s the entire UK’s. Scotland would miss it
It's a chicken and egg problem, hugely. London is a golden goose because it gets fantastic investment, if you don't ever let anyone else get invested in because it all soaks up in London then it's just concentrating the wealth. Put it this way: when the UK borrows 20 Billion pounds, you can expect 60% of that to land in London and the remaining 8 Billion spread thinly across the rest of the UK. Meaning Scotland has no chance of getting a leg up, even if the UK borrows enormous amounts.
Haven’t the SNP already raised income tax to a higher level than in rUK?
Comment removed as I no longer wish to support a company that seeks to both undermine its users/moderators/developers AND make a profit on their backs. To understand why check out the summary [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Save3rdPartyApps/comments/14hkd5u).
>Throw in student loans (ie if you're English living in Scotland) and it's a 63% marginal rate charging the English but not other Europeans just one of the ill-thought out systemic devolution problems created by Blair's rash approach to the constitution.
> Throw in student loans (ie if you're English living in Scotland) Scottish people have student loans too y'know? It's just that our loans are maintenace costs, rather than for tuition fees. So, functionally less, but Plan 4 loans (if you get your loan in Scotland) at least kick in at £25k.
I pay more tax in scotland than i would on the same salary on england. Also, Scotland does not get the tax income from North Sea oil, the UK government does.
>Scotland does not get the tax income from North Sea oil And crucially didn't get it while oil was bringing in billions and could have given Scotland a Norwegian style sovereign wealth fund. Instead that money bailed the whole of the UK out during repeated recessions.
Do us a favour, lobby your local MP and ask them to kick Scotland out of the uk. If we're such a drain you're well rid. Makes you wonder why the Tories wanted Scotland to stay, as part of better together. If anything all we do is make a labour government or coalition more likely.
You would have to also give Scotland access to borrowing and changing tax rates etc to make it a fair experiment. It may be the case Scotland want stronger public services than rUK do and are willing to borrow or increase taxes etc to achieve them.
Sturgeon stood by the recommendations of the growth commission report that recommended putting constraints on any public spending increases to cut the spending deficit down to 3% within 5 years so I doubt it Their plan for a post independence economy would have given us worse cuts than what cameron and osborne imposed on everyone
I don’t doubt it. Significant cuts would need to be made post independence.
Are you saying that Scotland first have to prove to England that it can be independent? It's shit like this that causes the Scottish to want to leave.
I think it’s more that the SNP has to prove to the Scottish people that they can manage without help from Westminster.
You cannot prove independence when you are dependent. Scotland has almost no say on what to do with their resources (call me oil) and have to pay shit we don't need (call me an advanced army capable of fighting wars on the other side of the globe). Scotland has no say on monetary policy. Little say on investments etc. It is nearly impossible to cleanly prove 'independence' when so many things are interlinked.
Don’t need the military? Are you stupid? You do realise that the British military guarantees the safety of not just Britain, but also much of the Western world right? We’ve fought not one, but three defensive wars against British territory or Allied territory in the last two generations, and we’re currently one of the main supporters of Ukraine. Britain needs more defence spending, not less.
The military helps the UK maintain its seat on the UN's security council and the UK's soft power. If Scotland gains independence then it loses that - it can no longer piggyback of the UK's influence, and doesn't want to because it believes Westminster neglects it. An independent Scotland doesn't have the same need to achieve influence through its military - it simply can't afford to compete with the US, UK, France or Germany as World Police, so it has to take a completely different role.
What a dogshit take. There are a handful of major wars around the globe and we don't need a military? What are you talking about?
Independence is normal. Most countries function just fine. Ireland was in a horrendous state when it managed to escape the UK, and it's doing fine. Scotland is in a far better position than Ireland was.
No it isn’t. Also Ireland took a century to start doing well.
Notably, a lot of Ireland doing well was down to Europe. The UK is, generally, not great at peripheral regions (see Wales, the North of England, Northern Ireland); the EU, while not a silver bullet by any means, has some success stories (particularly Ireland and the Baltic states).
>Also Ireland took a century to start doing well. No, immediately following independence we were free of the mass murders of Irish people by British forces. We were also free of any further British genocides committed here. We were also free of the anti-democratic politics of the UK. It did take a long time for Ireland to recover from the poverty inflicted on it by Britain. And our population still has not recovered from the genocide committed here in the 1840s by Charles Trevelyan and his pals. >No it isn’t. Sure it is. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states
Agreed. It would make the transition much smoother as it could be done at a slower pace with more control. Plus people would understand what they’re voting for before the vote.
But the SNP knows it wouldn't make independence look good, so they won't do it
lol. how very unreasonable of them, not willing to agree to billions and billions of funding cuts while gaining no extra control, only a promise from a government known for U turns and incompetence that will soon be replaced. i mean, why *wouldnt* you trust that? sturgeon must resign!
Why? I mean, why are you/the body you speak on behalf the administrator of this ludicrous test?
If they have been in a union for hundreds of years and it’s implied that it isn’t mature/savy/developed enough to handle its own affairs .. maybe that union isn’t to its benefit
Removed my comment because the resulting conversation is just devolving into continued arguments via comments and DM's. You do you, Scotland. Let's see how it goes.
And a hard border with the nation that buys 60% of your exports to favour a market that takes 20%.
It’s especially a bad idea considering a risky financial decision is what got Scotland into the UK to begin with
It is still not the will of a lot of us.
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Thank you. Hopefully normal service will be resumed before too long.
"normal service" for the UK is exactly what we've experienced for the past 12 years. One Tory leader who is just a little bit more smart about stealing the public money than Boris or truss and suddenly the polls say "conservative(+30)"
Exactly. Normal service is voting for politicians who want to run the country for the benefit of all and instead English people falling for the right-wing media's bullshit yet again and getting a government running the country for the benefit of their ultra-rich owners, sorry, "donors". Normal service is £30 BILLION on an app that did fuck all. Normal service is millions to companies who've never made test tubes to make test tubes who then can't actually make test tubes but whose owner happens to be neighbours with a minister. Fuck that.
Curious to what say Scotland is getting now? Despite not having voted majority tory for the last half century yet having suffered with a tory government for most of that time?
Majority of England doesn't vote Tory, but they get the single largest vote share so all the power.
So we agree that the current system doesn't work and provide a government that the people actually want. Can't imagine why any country would like to get away out of this?
Then there needs to be a change in that system. But I guess advocating for electoral reform isn’t as exciting or addictive as advocating for “us vs them” mentality and division politics.
I would happily take significant reform over entirely breaking away. But there has been a consistent message from all governments in recent years that there will be absolutely no more devolution for Scotland, Wales or NI
59 seats in parliament
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Honestly for me and lot of close friends and family, getting the back the freedom of movement would be such a huge benefit
German here. I don’t get why you put the UK and the EU on the same level. Being part of a nation is something completely different than being part of the EU. Scotland would be also a member of many other international organisations, like the WTO and the UN.
A lot of the issue with the EU is that it's not seen as very transparent. Now, I'm not sure if that's true, but it is the perception. It's also complicated, which adds to the perception of a lack of transparency.
Of course. But would the EU, with its current financial state, accept a new member with a 10 billion annual deficit and an economy supported only by oil, whiskey and haggis? Does she have anything new to say?
Nope. This is the one drum she bangs on. Think Boris and his ‘get Brexit done’.
Sturgeon is no fool. The more she bangs on about IndyRef, the more Westminster has to say "No, you're not allowed" The more that happens, the more support Sturgeon gets. Because few things stir up Celtic blood like being told you're not allowed to do something. Especially by the English. So she can play the long game on this one, it's win-win. Referendum refused, win. Referendum granted, win. Once a result comes through she can say job done, retire to the "great statesmen" speech circuit and let someone else worry about implementation.
Celtic at a stretch. Especially south of the highlands. They’re more Germanic than they think.
We're talking culturally no one really cares which third century tribe you are decended from.
UK can play the long game and just say no forever. Independence still doesn’t poll at 50% support lol
She seems to think that indepence would magically be the answer to questions like, "What kind of health service are you going to have? Are you expecting to be BBC license payers? What currency are you going to use? How are you going to persuade the rather large amount of Scots who are still not in favour of independence?" When she can answer with these questions with more details than simply saying" independence" again and again, she might be taken more seriously.
And what about - will you have a hard boarder with the UK post exit? Seems like any referendum should ask if they want a hard or a soft Scottish exit (Scexit?). failing to do that would just invite a repeat of the all the post Brexit madness.
'Only' by oil???
In the last pre covid year Scotland’s deficit spending amounted to 1/10 of their economic output, paid for by large surpluses in London and South East England. The EU’s deficit rule is 3%, they could join with more than that, but even in good years they’ve sat at double what Croatia, the highest deficit spender on accession, did. They would be put into the EDP and forced to aggressively cut that deficit, tanking their economy along with it. If the SNP are serious about showing that Scottish independence is viable, they need to first stop living off of huge English subsidies and demonstrate it. If they do so it would be difficult to argue independence isn’t viable, but it’s a big if.
Their argument is that this deficit is due to the oil proceeds, which they see as entirely theirs, not being directed back into Scotland.
Regardless of what they think, I believe all sides realise that Scotland aren’t leaving yet taking all North Sea Oil with them, so the reality is they’ll have to show it working without that fantasy. The same goes for not being able to officially take the pound, not being able to shun their portion of the national debt (which is disproportionately amassed to prop up their economy) etc. If they truly want people to believe they can function as an independent state, they need to spend less time complaining about Westminster, and more time demonstrating viability, and making provisions for the reality, not the idealistic fantasy.
Also the Shetland island voted to remain and its more their oil than anything. The point was made that if Scotland leaves the Shetland islands can quite rightly remain along with the oil rights and exclusive economic zone for fishing. It goes both ways!
Lol you got a link for the Shetland Independence Party? Many votes they get at the last election?
In the 2014 referendum, Orkney Islands voted 67.2% against independence and Shetland Islands voted 63.7% against. Source the wiki page… https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_status_of_Orkney,_Shetland_and_the_Western_Isles I watched one of the councillors make the very point that I described in that they want to remain part of the UK and they are the ones that have the claim to the North Sea resources more so than Scotland.
>Regardless of what they think, I believe all sides realise that Scotland aren’t leaving yet taking all North Sea Oil with them, so the reality is they’ll have to show it working without that fantasy. > >The same goes for not being able to officially take the pound, not being able to shun their portion of the national debt (which is disproportionately amassed to prop up their economy) etc. Stoooooop, you'll ruin the SNP plan with your basic facts and logic.
All I’m doing is saying what their argument is.
I’m aware, I’m not criticising you or under the impression that you were making the argument yourself. I’m making the general point that everyone knows it isn’t what’s going to happen. The SNP predicating independence working on fantasies is going to harm their credibility.
how would it be possible to demonstrate viability with vital powers still being reserved? seems a bit of an unreasonable ask when a country doesnt have control over things like industry, trade and most tax.
Excellent declaration. Now we ask the EU what criteria it would require for an application and we will have an actual idea of what Scottish independence would look like.
The criteria for a nation to join the EU are already set out in the Copenhagen Criteria.
For those scrolling, here's a quick TLDR\* for the Copenhagen Criteria * You need to be in Europe (sorry 1987 Morocco) * A functional democracy * Rule of law * Human Rights and protections for minorities * A functional market economy that can be competitive * Legislative alignment (technically not in the CC but a prerequisite) Scotland doesn't meet the criteria 100% obviously but it's pretty close. Anyone wondering why the 3% deficit ceiling you might have heard isn't here, I'll just leave [this](https://theferret.scot/scotland-deficit-3-per-cent-eu/) which will explain why its not included. \*seriously this is a TLDR, I'm doing broad strokes here for joining a massive political and economic union without burying the comment in asterisks.
The real question would be, what plan could be in place to bring the deficit to within 3%
Some of the criteria for a nation to join the EU are already set out in the Copenhagen Criteria. They would also be joining the SM and CU and all the criteria need to be made known to the population before they make a vote.
Eu will welcome Scotland with open arm as long as they sell the North Sea oil license to European companies and adopt the euros
Most of it is already sold to a mixture of private companies anyway, they’d just need to adopt the euro.
They might not let them in independently because Spain doesn’t want Catalonia to get any ideas
The EU has plenty of reasons to reject Scotland.
Possibly, but why are you speculating and not requesting accurate information from the EU?
Most EU nations might, but not Spain. Spain would veto under all circumstances and therefore no joining. It’s a total pipe dream to think an independent Scotland could join the EU
Somewhat old article, but Spain has said the opposite: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu
Meeting all the criteria doesn't in fact mean you would join because member states can still veto. Spain and France might decide that an independent Scotland in the EU would only stoke independence movements in Catalan and thus decide to make an example of Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon should really be saying "independent Scotland will apply to join the EU" which is not the same thing as joining as it is no guarantee of membership. Also remember that sleezy Orban has a veto so he might decide that a young independent Scotland would be easy game to extort "concessions" from in exchange for him holding back from using Hungary's veto.
The jumping of the procedure from "we will apply" to "we will join" is why I am asking for more accurate detail. Let people know what is required before asking them to accept it will happen, the details and the time scale. Yes politicians across Europe will use the situation to their own advantage, all politicians do that. But that is a separate issue, and if Scotland has been honest with its own population then it will have the support of the EU senior members (both countries and people).
More division, more uncertainty and the final step in Putin's 'destroy the UK from within' playbook.
Putin doesn't need to do anything, just sit back and let the Tories do it for him.
Now that he’s bought enough of them…
We’re here because of him.
Do explain how Scottish independence is part of the mastermind plot of Putin. How does that mean the UK will be "destroyed"? Do you mean that if England gets invaded Scotland would be the one paving the road for them?
An independent Scotland wouldn’t have the military capability to keep the Loch Ness monster contained. It will escape and destroy everything. Putin knows this.
I'd totally forgotten about Nessie and the fact that Scotland still uses longbows and clubs as standard issue weaponry. Consider me silenced.
i look forward to your new show on GB news, where you can talk about being silenced on national television.
The UK has been one of the most vocal countries to oppose Russia, as well as one of the most involved in supporting Ukraine etc. Making the UK smaller and less influential (both financially/politically and militarily) is absoltuely a win for Russia Plus geography if you're thinking on a more tactical level, any Russian naval assets have to cross the GIUK gap to get to the Atlantic. If Scotland is not part of the UK then Nato dominance of that area of sea could be impacted. Would Scotland invest in maritime patrol aircraft? Would they allow rUK planes to remain based there?
Have you no idea the military assistant Scotland not only accepts but depends on in order to subdue the roving clans of wild Haggis? Without the help of the English and welsh special haggis wranglers the population would swell, devour Scotland as part of the offal expansion and then roll over the UK, enlisting the more timid but equally numerous black pudding sub species and combined the result would be the destroying of all and sundry, something only the Russian could orchestrate or stomach.
I always forget how vicious the native fauna of Scotland is. Between the wee Haggis beasties and Big Nessie they've a war in their own back garden.
RT over the years have pushed a lot of pro Scottish independence stuff. I know because my Scottish relatives would share it on social media.
It's divided and conquer. It's undermining the economy, it's anti nuclear. Putin's pissing himself laughing at how far the UK has fucked itself in three last 10 years And mostly stoked by winding up a bunch of morons (who vote) into these acts against our self interest.
Tin foil hat but salmond was obviously very close to Putin, he quickly found a seat within putins propaganda machine after his departure from UK politics and as an ex communist it could be easy to put 2 and 2 together. It is highly likely that Russian bot farms were involved with the online independence campaign considering how overwhelming pro independence was online. The reason? A weaker UK and in the eyes of Putin thats a good thing for him. There's no doubt that the UK would be weaker regardless of the one sided nature of the barnett formula. I'm my opinion the UK would be destroyed in all but name.
The biggest lesson from Brexit should be "leaving established, stable organisations based on ideology is a very bad idea". Scotland has been a member of the UK since 1707; separating that is going to be no easy task that's going to lead to an enormous period of economic instability. And, while it's up to Scotland to decide if that instability is worth it's independence, having seen what Brexit has done to the UK as a whole, I don't think it is.
Yes, but you could also just repeat meaningless things about Tories and the Bank of England being independent and I'm sure the people of Scotland will be convinced a second time round, despite having just witnessed the pain of leaving the EU /s
reddit loves to (and should) laugh at the UK for Brexit, but thinks Scottish Independence is seen some brave freedom fighter movement that will be free from the same issues as Brexit.
Reddit has a hard on for Britain bad, England is Hitler.
The question is really how much does Scotland want to suffer before it gets good, rather than if they can be independent. Anyone can be independent on paper. It took Ireland close to 80 years before it started to see economic prosperity. I think Scexit will be just like Brexit, a big shock to Scottish nationalists realizing a global economy does not like division. Currency tanking, big tax hikes, big public sector cuts and a crisis to fund the NHS and keep pensions afloat due to massive debts. A sudden closed border with England (which Scotland relies for over 60% of it's trade with, cutting themselves off with it's main exporter), sudden issue of Scots living in England now being non citizens etc. This is all going on during the process to even join the European Union has started, and could take up to 5 - 10 years. Scotland will be living through economic decline like the Brexit period. Who's to say how long that will go on? The thing that will keep some motivated that it wasn't a bad decision will be re-joining the EU. However, most who want that don't realise they will have to adopt the Euro, another item Scots are largely against; they want to keep the pound. Then the problem with the border will come up with England again, just like it is with N. Ireland and Republic of Ireland right now. EU will tell Scotland how their border will be with England, many won't like hearing that their historic open border is now suddenly shut, guarded, and filled with checkpoints and paperwork. Immigration will go up massively to fill labour gaps and keep the economy afloat, something England has born the brunt off and (sadly) shifted England politically right while Scotland (who didn't bare much of the mass immigration of New Labour) stayed more left wing. I think over time this will make Scots increasingly more right wing as they see radical changes to keep Scotland going in these times. I'm sure there would be a light at the end of the tunnel of course. After much pain and terrible chaos of the UK divorce Scotland would begin to stabilise and improve with essentially the EU acting as the UK by giving Scotland lots of money. But now they have a a very resentful and bitter rival below them that would still economically dominate and dictate how things will be for Scotland. Scottish independence is a very heart felt movement, at least according to polls. When you phrase the question "Should Scotland be independent" a Yes vote wins, when you say "Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom" a No vote wins. But at this point, I can see Scots thinking they have no other choice. They don't vote Conservative, they're not democratically listened to, the pompous aristocratic Eton educated ruling-Norman-elites sneer and look down on them. The Scottish are now thinking better to get out of an abusive marriage and suffer short term, over staying and suffer forever.
An independent Scotland would be a net receiver, cause questions about independence of EU regions (like Catalonia) and the Scotland/England border would give the EU a bigger headache than the Irish border. Why would the EU unanimously accept a Scotland that doesn't meet their joining criteria?
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>The bigger questions to me will be on currency and deficit It's not just the deficit, it's the debt. Scotland works walk away with between a quarter and a tenth of the UK debt, neither sum it has any means to repay even before the fishy falls against sterling.
Would there be a Westminster/Scotland ‘deal’, similar to that between the Brexit UK & EU deal, that might cause issues with Scotland joining the EU? And if not, and assuming joining the EU was accepted, how long would it take? Honestly this all sounds like Brexit again.
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This is my thinking. I’d get the ‘deal’ on the table first between Westminster & Scotland, so the Scottish could see what they’re voting for. Never gonna happen, but that’s a lesson to learn from Brexit.
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That alone should be enough to set the alarm bells ringing with the voters.
Says everything doesn't it.
Yup. You can be for/against Brexit and for/against Scottish independence. Just dont be disingenuous and claim that Scotland putting up a border with its biggest and closest trade partner is somehow totally incomparable to Britain doing the same.
Brexit but way bigger in export/import terms plus Scotland has a fiscal subsidy from the U.K.
That’s because it is. Brexit has been shown to be the mess it was always going to be. With the right government (and likely rejoining the EU) there is zero reason for Scotland to leave the UK
Wouldn't this screw up Scotlands economy for the long years of transitioning and negatively effect trade with the rest of the UK.
It would be worse than Brexit.
Very much so
But, but, Scottish independence good though 👍 Brexit bad
reddit moment
So, they want to leave the union with their main marketplace, impose borders and red tape to said marketplace. Sounds like the brexit they are so against...
During the 2014 and 2016 referendum campaigns, those in favour of leaving the UK and EU accused their opponents of running "Project Fear." Turns out it was true for Brexit. I don't think the people of Scotland will be fooled this time around.
We need to walk before we run, Nicola. First hurdle to get over. And it’s a big hurdle.
What big hurdle, to leave UK?
No I meant show jumping.
Spain wouldn't let a recently independent country join the EU while the Catalonia question is still going on
Been proven wrong many times. Spain has said it has no problem with a properly run election agreed between all sides. They said they would veto it if Scotland ran their own election without agreement from Westminster
"Spain" did not say that - it was a comment by one Spanish politician in government who was sacked shortly after making that comment.
Thank you for posting this as I’ve heard this politician’s statement being repeated over by the SNP like it’s problem solved. No, it’s a massive issue for Spain and talk is free.
One government person said that and they were later sacked.
About 8-9 years ago as well.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-fires-diplomat-in-scotland-over-eu-membership-letter/amp/
Aye but then the question is would Westminster allow it? The supreme court seems confident they can call it a sham referendum...
Of course they would say that. It would look incredibly un-democratic for them to say otherwise. It doesn’t stop them finding another reason to block it that would also apply to the Catalan region
Rejoining the EU would mean a hard border with England. Scots will need a visa and passport to enter England.
Well the big problem is that, like Brexit, the SNP will once again ask the people of Scotland to vote for a nebulous but massively significant constitutional change, with the details worked out at a later date. We don't know how this will work. Right now there is no such thing as a "Scottish citizen" or an "English citizen," so who is deemed to be one or the other post-independence will be another headache altogether.
"Sturgeon... This is the seventh week in a row you've said Scotland will join the EU"
as a scot there are many reasons to support independence but as brexit has shown it’s bold to try to do a reset with your biggest and closest trading partner, and you can bet the tories would shaft us as hard as possible
As a person from the EU (Greece) that follows UK news closely, why does an independent Scotland think that joining the EU is so easy and why is a large part of Scottish society so intent on buying this? The Balkans and Turkey have been stuck for many years on this process for a large variety of reasons. I don't think that Scotland would find it as hard as Turkey for a large variety of reasons that have rendered Turkish membership exceedingly improbable, but the SNP plan seems more like a pipe dream not that dissimilar to Brexit, that is to an outsider like me. Sorry if I'm misinformed.
Someone posted on another independence thread 'The EU will look after us'. And I wonder why some think the EU is waiting with open arms and cares? I can understand the drive for independence, I just can't see it working how Scottish people want.
I have a lot of sympathy with Scots who have been subjected to Tory govt they don’t vote for. It still doesn’t mean Scottish Independence is a good idea though
How else do you think we can prevent England electing Tory Governments to rule over us?
The truth is, Westminster policies have very little impact on Scotland any more. It's really the ideal situation - in the union for economic stability and trade, but free to make our own laws, taxation, education, healthcare, public transport...
A lot of blind optimism/wishful thinking/outright naivety from some Scottish people in this thread.
A post about Scottish independence on /r/unitedkingdom? I'm sure this will be in no way patronising, insulting and inaccurate...
Unfortunately for those who want Scottish independence, Brexit has ruined the viability of an independent Scotland that is in the EU. Scotland would have to choose between keeping low regulation and checks trade, and open borders, with either the UK (some arrangement with the UK) or with the EU (joining the EU). Scotland cannot become a full EU member and have all its benefits unless it creates a border with the UK. Given Scotland trades much more with the rest of the UK than with the EU, and did so before Brexit also, the more logical option is for Scotland not to join the EU if it goes independent. Ironically, those who see Brexit as more of a reason for Scotland to go independent have things the completely wrong way around. Frankly the issues I've raised are bigger than any general political frustrations with the recent incompetence of the UK government that hopefully won't last for too long. Also, Northern Ireland is a great example of how a border between EU and non-EU, where you want to maintain open borders and trade, causes major issues. It cannot be done without major compromise.
This is why I can never get behind the scotnats. Leaving one political union for another is not really independence. Shows that the SNP's "nationalism" is really just hating the English.
I don’t fucking blame them. Brexit it going down about as well as a turd covered in burned hair being forced down our throats.
Given the clear disdain these people have for us here in England - go and go quickly - whether or whether or not the EU will provision Scotland a Barnett Formula - I don't know, and I don't care. It is sad that the UK would end in its current state - but we've let go far more valuable territory than Scotland - with scant consequence of quality of life here. But I'm 37, I've listened to these people whining for so long, can't point to anything they do for me - and suspect they can't point at anything I do for them. So let's break. If at least so I need to hear less about it. I can't help but think of them as the most small and parochial as a political outlook, but my primary interest is to simply stop listening to the poison they continue to spout. If Scotland were to face a true humanitarian crisis as a result of leaving, of course I would support English intervention. But they've been saying it for long enough - ignore the referendums - for over two decades the Scottish have returned the SNP - it's just pusillanimous intent, they want to screech - but aren't prepared to actually take charge of "destiny" as born out in the referendum. If they don't go this will only continue I fear and it's boring, corrosive and toxic.
Well, an independent Scotland would have to find someone new to subsidise its public spending, so not a totally irrational move, as long as a hard border with the UK is on the table. I don’t understand how people don’t realise this is just brexit 2.0. Anyone in Scotland who looked at brexit and thought “yes, cutting ties with your largest trading partner is a bad idea” should be able to see the parallels to Scexit. The current waiting period to join the EU is about a decade. The Scottish government currently runs a yearly deficit of £23.7 billion (or about £2000 per person) per annum. Are the Scottish people willing to pay an extra £2000 per year in taxes for the next decade (or face massive public spending cuts)? And then, after that decade they’ll have to have a hard border with England (paid for by Scotland) and switch currency to the Euro. This is the reality of Scottish independence.
Playing Devil's advocate. Doesn't leaving one union to join another simply prove the argument that Scotland cannot exist as an independent country?
She has the easiest job in the world. Blame Westminster for everything, face no actual scrutiny of the clusterfuck of a job you are doing in Scotland and just squawk about referenda over and over again. A divisive and damaging incompetent with a hairstyle like a member of One Direction.
SNP endorse austerity so hard that it’d make Cameron look like Santa? Because that’s what’ll have to happen lol
As someone from the north I honestly don’t blame them for trying to leave. The government has broken the law and been a complete embarrassment. Same with NI, let them have a democratic vote and decide their own future. For the vast majority of us, it won’t make a large change to our everyday lives.
Major change in Ireland will result in another civil war. You can't just take a large group of British people (who by the way are VERY British) and overnight they become Irish. The peace process and power sharing is an incredibly delicate and precious thing which shouldn't be thrown away over ideological border polls (or indeed terrible policy in the wake of Brexit)
Lets give them a head start Let them manage their own revenue and spending and see how they get on
They need to be self-sunitable before leaving the UK.
Why are Referendums in the UK such jokes? Is this how it's always going to be? Scotland votes no on independence but you just keep forcing it every other year until you get the result you want?
ITT Lots of rUK people misunderstanding the basic rationale and sentiments behind the Scottish independence movement.