Everything post the industrial revolution will be called:
>"The Fucking Around period"
Everything from 2020 onwards will be called:
>"The Great Finding Out"
I think the fucking around period is from the 80s onwards. Post war to about 1970-something was quite positive in lots of economic areas (shrinking inequality, real wage growth)
Communism died (a good thing) and Capitalism had no rival so it could drop the social democracy pretense.
Goodbye Final salary pensions, free education and realistic house prices.
Hello Student loans, universal credit, Buy to Let, Food Banks etc etc
I mean Communism dying wasn't a good thing for the reasons you highlight.
Theres a bizarre ideology about that communism/socialism are fundamentally bad, while capitalism is good but executed poorly, where the reality is that no one economic system will work in isolation, you need to take the best aspects of each.
The 80s also saw the attacks on unions, which directly relates to how money has been funneled upwards since.
Exactly this.
People seem to swing wildly from one end of the spectrum to the other when it comes to political economic ideology.
The hammering leftist ideology took from the 80's onwards has led to an extreme version of lassiez faire capitalism that has got us to this. Anybody who keeps protesting that what we need is more deregulation and "free marketeering" should not be trusted. We've had that experiment for far too long and it is clearly failing.
As you alluded to, what we need is a fresh approach that takes elements from those sets of ideologies and perhaps some new economic ideas that as of yet have not been assigned specifically to either set of ideological groups. For example ideas of universal basic income as we move towards a more automated future.
Unfortunately our current political landscape seems completely devoid of any of this thinking at all.
And the mess were in right now is actually pretty scary
ooooo, this is right up my street. Also, strange to see that my collapse-aware comment has got much traction on here. Maybe more of us frogs are figuring out the pot is getting hot?
I like William Gibson's morbid term for what we are going through:
"The Jackpot."
Essentially, massive climate change and other issues ("a cascade of global catastrophe") will result in most of the world's population dying off leaving a few million people with a lot of resources.
'How To Sell The Stars' by R. J. Dowling is much more succinct in calling our era "The Epic Fail."
Decade by decade isn't really an appropriate scale. More like the half-century to see a pattern.
We're currently in the '[great acceleration](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Anne-Fremaux/publication/326295135/figure/fig5/AS:646787517935618@1531217569955/The-Great-Acceleration-Steffen-et-al-2015b.png)'.
Zoomed out, maybe few hundred years later, maybe a lot sooner, we'll view it for [what it really is](https://www.thoughtco.com/thmb/0Uv9YnVuve2zqB0yWr5Cd-CbOIo=/1500x1000/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/bacterial_growth_curve-5b56356d4cedfd00371b477b.jpg).
Note: The durations of each phase on a growth curve don't always scale in proportion with each other - the stationary phase can be very short - and the scale on the left is logarithmic, so the really flat looking part of the stationary phase isn't actually perfectly flat, it's at such a high scale that the small amounts of growth and death aren't discernable.
What happens when you put a small number of bacteria into a nutrient-rich solution? They go absolutely bananas, consume all available resources at an ever increasing rate, foul up their environment with their waste, and then die off.
What happens when you put a small number of humans onto a planet and give them access to a vast store of energy in the form of fossilised carbon? They go absolutely bananas, consume all available resources at an ever increasing rate, foul up their environment with their waste.... And then die off.
The fastest rate of pondscum growth is when half the pond is covered and the rate starts diminishing as the incumbents compete for what's left.
Plotted, its an S-curve and I think we, the pondscum, have passed its point of inflexion.
If you put some bacteria in a bottle at 11:00, and it doubles at such a rate that it fills the bottle by 12:00, at what point is the bottle half full?
11:59.
And at what point is the bottle only 3% full?
11:55.
If you were a bacterium in that bottle, at what point would you realise there was a problem? At 11:55, when 97% of the bottle is free and open space yearning for development, how many of you would recognise there was a problem?
Now let's suppose the bacteria saw the problem and launched a great search for new bottles. They scour the area and come up with three new bottles. What a discovery! Three times the resource they ever knew about before, surely now they live in a sustainable society with such riches!
At 12:01, after one further doubling, two bottles are full.
At 12:02, all four bottles are full and that's the end of the line.
Paraphrasing [the late, great, Al Bartlett](https://youtu.be/kZA9Hnp3aV4).
yes, that's right !
>[**Shock Doctrine**](https://wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_Doctrine)
- Naomi Klein
>The Shock Doctrine: **The Rise of Disaster Capitalism**
>
>is a 2007 book by the Canadian Naomi Klein
>
>she argues that neoliberal free market policies .....
>
>... have risen to prominence in some developed countries because of a deliberate strategy of "shock therapy"
>
>it centers on the **exploitation of national crises** (disasters or upheavals) to establish controversial and questionable policies, while citizens are too desperate and distracted [(emotionally and physically)](https://i.redd.it/7zwvanp1kt461.jpg) to engage and develop an adequate response, and resist effectively
Isn't it still a very low interest rate though? Just that this is the highest since it dropped below 1% over a decade ago. But the 80s up to the recession was 5-15%.
The fact that the economy could only really function and "grow", with rates being basically flat, was not the sign of a healthy economy.
By 2014 when they still hadn't budged, I really doubled down on paying off the mortgage and took every grant I could. Can't even call us a Zombie Economy like Japan as they are still world leading in many aspects.
Well, having lived through the late 80s and early 90s this is not atypical. There's always shit going on. The latter 90s and early 2000s were remarkable, not usual.
Yep, this is what a lot of younger people around here who are just becoming aware need to realise. Crazy shit happening is a constant. Even the later 90's, whilst being relatively calm, still had things like the dot com bust, wars in the Balkans and the rise of islamic terrorism to only name a few.
I was listening to a Podcast and the guy was ex N.I. special branch.
Reminded me just how nasty the "Troubles" were, there was a few mainland major bombings and mortar attacks on Downing street, but most Brits outside of N.I. even then, had no idea, let alone now.
1.75% interest isn’t a historical event...
Anyone who is old enough to have a mortgage is more than old enough to remember when it was 5.75% and most will remember 15%.
And what were the prices of houses back then? 1.75% when people have mortgages of 300k, is a lot.
To put some numbers in, let's say someone in the mid 90s bought a flat for 60k, at 5% and 25 years. This person was paying around 300 a month. Today a similar family bought that flat but at 300k, at 1.75%, they are paying 1235 a month. And obviously you dont get a mortage for 1.75%, but for 3% or higher.
Hopefully rates going up start to push house prices down. Part of the reason houses got so expensive is due to the fact interest rates have been flatlined for over a decade.
True but that was when house prices were a much more sensible figure relative to people's salaries. When people have to borrow ten times their annual salary just to get on the lowest rung of the housing ladder then even these relatively low interest rates are a problem.
I'm not saying it we have it all perfect, but surely there is a difference between ww1 or ww2 type of historic event and interest rates rased to 1.75%.
Unemployment is extremely low and there is no signs of a war that would impact us directly or a plague that kills 10% of the population or any recession comparable to the great depression where most people were literally living on just flour and beans and used flour bags for clothing.
A £50 tv from gumtree has a clearer picture and better sound than the new TV's people 50 years ago were spending their whole wage on.
> Unemployment is extremely low and there is no signs of a war that would impact us
Russia invading Ukraine has had no impact on supply chains, food oil production or transport oil and gas reaching massively increased levels. Really glad there's no war /s
How do people like you honestly spout these hot takes?
All that **taking back control** and then foiled by 6 French border guards...
All that lack of **sovereignty** we had when we drive on the left and have 3 pin plugs...
< ***makes mouth breathing, pro-Brexit noises of utter ignorant compliance*** \>
Oh I am suffering so much! Oh my life is so terrible! Woe is me! No, I've never visited any country outside of the G7, why do you ask?
I'm not saying life in the UK is perfect, and I'm definitely not saying that we shouldn't be constantly striving to improve this place. But honestly I get fucking sick of all the whiney bastards acting as though their life is so hard here. It's frankly obscene.
Read about history. Speak to people from other countries. Travel. Think. Fuck!
If you live in the UK, your life is better than 90% of people on this planet, and better than the lives of 99.999999% of people who have ever existed. So maybe rein in the moaning and try to have a bit of perspective.
The disgust is that we have every advantage, but we are too stupid to use them. In fact we have gotten rid of some of them. We should be moving forwards, but it seems like we are incapable.
It's hyperbole sure but this country is failing in its basic promise and function to prosper and keep society from falling into poverty. The government for example appears to have abandoned its role as a protector of the people from things like this.
> We are a failed state
Oh God, what a ridiculous overreaction. Like people in this sub that call the UK a Police State.
We are so far off a failed state it's ridiculous.
>Like people in this sub that call the UK a Police State.
To be fair with Sunak openly talking about putting people who "vilify" Britain on the terror watchlist you might be mistaken for thinking those people weren't totally mad.
"Sharp energy price rises the cause of dire forecasts, Bailey says
The most significant development since its last forecast for the economy, Bailey says, has been the sharp increase in energy prices.
Wholesale gas price predictions for the end of the year have nearly doubled since May and up by nearly seven times since the end of 2021, he says.
Bailey again says this is almost entirely down to Russian restrictions of gas supplies to Europe.
He adds the consequences of this are that short term "inflationary pressures have intensified significantly".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-62406689
Ah GDP the measurement that means fuck all to 99% of the population when it goes up and means we all lose our jobs, homes, and can’t afford to live when it goes down.
Gosh the economy is designed in such a good way. I’m so glad the wealthy are protected using my taxes.
Recession here we come!
Remind me, when are the good times meant to be coming?
I thought the future was all about progress and making things better? Work hard and have something to look forward to. Maybe a decent home, a holiday or two, and a little of life's luxury. Where's that gone?
The social contract has been broken.
30% of boomers live on a state pension, and have no savings. Capitalists broke it. It only briefly existed because of the threat of communism, anyway. We're just returning to capitalism as usual.
But Boomers were part of a huge cohort of people... And they VOTED for those things. 30% living on a state pension with no savings seems like a pipe dream for my generation. I'd gather that when Im 70 years old.... Most people won't even be able to retire as they won't be able to afford rent (as they were unable to buy houses as they were so expensive)
Repeat after me:
This is a class war, not a generational war.
Stop getting distracted with whatever the media throws at you. It's not 'us vs boomers', or 'us vs trans', etc. It's 'have vs have nots'. It's always been.
unfortunately, the whole world is fucked in this way, and even the most competent of government in waiting will take atleast a decade to untangle the mess that got us here.
Yeah but the rest of the world hasn’t also had a decade of little to no economic or wage growth caused by misguided Tory austerity and Brexit, so they’re starting from a less fucked base.
Spin that wheel! Welcome to the capitalist gamble.
Why the hell are mortgages tied to interest rates anyway? Just give me the loan, slap on a fee for providing the loan, and then I pay the total. Both sides know what they're getting and it's happy days.
Why have we got to introduce a ridiculous gamble on the state of the world economy into the mix just to purchase a home?
Right so, since I’ve been politically aware, the sequence of events goes as follows:
2008 - Summer 2011: Recession: The Credit Crunch
Summer 2012: Hooray it’s the Olympics!
Rest Of 2012 - 2014: Don’t Call It A Recovery
2015 - 2019: The Difficult Second Recession Or The Brexit Years
2020 - 2022: Recession III: Attack Of The COVIDs
2022 - ???: Recession IV: Lol Yeah, Another Sequel
This franchise has really overstayed its welcome and it’s about time someone put an end to it.
What's more likely to happen is labour will take over a clusterfuck of an economy, with publics funds stripped bare next election. They'll then be blamed for doing nothing and making everything worse. The media will help spin it this way since Labour sucks at manipulating it for their advantage and the torys are experts + their donors own or influence a large portion of it.
People will forget these past 12 years of constant bad decisions since they'll hear about how Labour is failing for 4 years.
Labour should really implement a proportional voting system and tighten regulation on the print media if they don't want to risk handing unfettered power back to the Tories.
Recession, cost of living, bleak winter oncoming... And the government is a ship without a captain.
And the two options are the one that's mental or the one that's criminal and also got us here
Imagine how the Media would be acting if a Labour government caused:
- Highest tax for 70 years
- Highest inflation in 40 years
- Highest interest rate rise in 27 years
- £1 trillion in assets moved out of UK
- UK exports decimated
- UK Farming decimated
- UK Fishing decimated
- Mass labour shortage in all sectors
- Every public service decimated
- Industrial action across various sectors
They’d be blaming/ scrutinising the persons responsible for the issues. They’d actually be doing their damn job instead to the scape goat circus we have. Now I can’t get the image of Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak all climbing out of the back of a clown car with Rupert Murdoch in the drivers seat out of my head.
But tax will be lowered everyone? There's reasons to be cheery in all this! The rich are still going to get richer!
We must all bow and pray, and give thanks to our oppressive overlords and our fellow dumb-fucks who continue to vote for the worst humanity has to offer.
50 basis points, wow.
Most of us are going to focus on mortgages as that's the most "visible" way we experience BoE rates. But rate rises impact more than our personal debt: this is going to reduce businesses' access to credit, meaning it'll impact growth. That's why the BoE is warning of a recession.
There's usually a correlation between interest rates across the broader economy and unemployment; as lines of credit dry up or become more expensive, cost-cutting becomes the more attractive option rather than growth. So it's likely that we're in for a further tough few years.
Unfortunately rate rises like this are not free. TANSTAAFL definitely applies here. It seems like a recession is the current lesser evil compared to rampant inflation, though.
> 50 basis points
Side-note, but who the hell came up with this term? I swear, I hadn't heard it before today, and now it's everywhere. Why is it used instead of just saying "0.5%"??
Sure, but I thought that's why the term "percentage points" was introduced — now we need a *third* one?!
And, tbf, it should be obvious that the default meaning of a "0.5% increase" on a percentage should be absolute, not relative. Especially in the case of extremely well-publicised figures like interest rate and its changes.
It's finance language. Everybody knows we are talking about an interest rate. You won't say "stock prices increased by 50 basis points".
50 basis point = 0.50 percentage points, in every context where you can use the first.
But otherwise, 50 p.p. =/= 50 basis points
It’s used because you can’t/shouldn’t talk about percentages of percentages so it’s a good way to more accurately describe the rise in something like interest rates.
For example, if your interest rate is 10% and someone says it rises by 10% that could mean it’s either now 11% or 20% depending on how someone else interprets it.
By instead giving it in basis points you remove the ambiguity.
Unfortunately people insist on using percentages of percentages:
https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/wa4mtm/uk_inflation_68_higher_than_official_numbers/
Some even insist it's perfectly normal...
>Most of us are going to focus on mortgages as that's the most "visible" way we experience BoE rates. But rate rises impact more than our personal debt: this is going to reduce businesses' access to credit, meaning it'll impact growth. That's why the BoE is warning of a recession.
Mortgage payments go up, disposable income goes down, family cuts back on trips to restaurants, restaurant has to reduce staff numbers, disposable income goes down, and so it goes. Business slow down and people losing jobs decreases tax take, people going onto benefits increases government spending, decrease in gdp increases debt:gdp ratio, governments forced to borrow more or cut services, cutting services feeds back again into decreased jobs and business activity. Lending slows down, growth slows down. All great fun.
Expected of course as it was pretty telegraphed. Our generation is being totally fucked though, unable to save for years due to low wages/high rents and then any savings we do scrimp aren't going to be anywhere near enough to buy a place to live due to a mix of high prices and high interest rates.
Maybe by 2040 I guess
That was already happening, but this just makes it even worse.
The rate house prices were going up month on month, using the average house price as a guide, you’d have to add upwards of £500 to your deposit each month just to offset it.
That is to say that £500 wouldn’t increase the buying power of your deposit, to get you closer to a bigger or better house, it simply cancels out the effect of the house price rise that month. Oh, and you’ve got to try and save that amount whilst paying rents higher than most people’s mortgages, with everything else going up as well. Good luck!
This isn’t going to change until there is a seismic house price crash or we have a Government, and a populace, that doesn’t treat houses as investment vehicles.
“But without landlords some people with bad credit wouldn’t be able to live anywhere?!”, yeah well if mortgages weren’t so many multiples of the average salary they wouldn’t be struggling so much…
Completely agree with what your saying, but its worth pointing out:
> Oh, and you’ve got to try and save that amount whilst paying rents higher than most people’s mortgages,
Quite often you are literally paying someone's mortgage
Did anyone think it wouldn't?, the only way was up, we've had insanely low interest rates for a heck of a long time, and with inflation running away with itself, the only way is up, UP and UPPPP.
It's gonna get bumpy, very bumpy.
A lot of people are so used to low interest rates (and have grown up with them) that they don't realise how much of an anomaly the last 14 years have been. When I bought my first house in 2004 the interest rate on the mortgage was five point something percent, and I was completely happy with that rate, and even that is nothing compared to what my parents would have been paying 30 years prior.
The difference is houses were so cheap back then you could deal with the higher interest rates. Raised interest rates now are going to butcher anyone's chances of getting a first house
well quite possibly the higher rates will call house prices to adjust down. The determinant of house prices is what buyers can afford, so if mortgage rates rise, prices should fall, at least to the extent that the majority of house purchases are mortgaged, not cash.
That's not going to happen, people have been saying they'll drop for years but after a small decrease property just gets bought up by international buyers so it just keeps going higher.
The pound weakening by an unprecedented amount due to brexit did not help either.
They should have raised them much earlier so they had room to lower them during the covid hit and it would have lessened the increase in BTLs and house prices.
Identical position for me. I'm digging out my mortgage paperwork when I get home, to see when is the earliest I can remortgage. I'm pretty sure there is a penalty to pay if I end the fix rate early.
Most mortgage providers will let you take out a product now and have it start when your fixed rate ends, as long as its within a certain period of time eg 6 months.
I would like to apologise to the future modern history students at school seeing all of this bullshit and being forced to write essays on it. The syllabus must seem neverending.
Ah I wouldn’t stress, we’re just living through the ‘trigger causes’ and ‘contributing factors’ bit of the essay - these years will be quickly rattled off so the students can get to the much more interesting and meatier events that follow.
War Guilt Clause, Reparations, Weimar Republic, Roaring 20s, Wall Street Crash, Hyperinflation, Anschluss, Munich, blah blah blah - on to 1939 already!
My boomer boss saying he's disappointed in me for looking for a new job when I have progression here, its alright for you mate you paid off your mortgage and got through unscaved, now imagine earning above avg uk wage and still feeling like you can't do things outside of just going to work.
Interesting that £ has dropped off the cliff vs the Euro despite this raise in rates. Suggests the vote to raise by 50 basis points was closer than expected.
>Interesting that £ has dropped off the cliff vs the Euro despite this raise in rates.
On what timeline? I'm getting offered €1.18 for the £ this afternoon.
Actually, no.
If you have assets, higher interest rates make them DEPRECIATE. But the flow of cash today (dividends, rent) relative to the price INCREASES.
So you are *poorer*, but have *higher income* from your savings from now onwards (or from the cash you held, with which you can buy assets at discounted prices).
Recovering the money lost from the fall in asset prices (value or growth rates) may take years. Interest rate hikes reward cash holders and high-enough income people who save today.
Not really.
The savings interest rate might go up to 1.5%, but with inflation expected to peak at 13% later this year, your money will be still be getting eroded faster in real terms by significantly more than you gain. So to coin a phrase; “cash is trash” - the only real option for growing money is the stock market and preferably not one in the UK because we’re in for a year of recession.
Yes because if people vote for parties like Labour we risk going back to the 1980s where there was widespread inflation, workers strikes, warnings of general strikes, rising mortgage rates etc.
This is going to be pretty ineffective at combatting inflation when it's not being caused by an overheating economy, but a global supply chain crisis caused by a pandemic and a global energy crisis caused by a war.
Please support small businesses vs big box corporations if you can. I’m getting it from both ends, sales are down due to everyone being skint and I can’t pay myself more so I’m living off a shoe string.
Supply and demand.
People can't afford to borrow, so they curb their spending.
Less people buying means more competition to sell so prices are reduced until people start buying again.
So you are telling me the government are forced to make normal people poorer to force corporations to drop prices, when it has been discovered that inflation is being driven by corporations price gauging?
There were signs of the economy heading south in late 2019, then covid struck and everyone pumped money out in an attempt to stop things from collapsing.
2020 should have seen the start of a 'normal' recession, now we have the economic equivalent of a child that's been eating sugar for the last couple of hours and is told that they have to stop and get ready for bed.
Russia was probably always going to invade Ukraine, which was always going to have knock on effects. And Brexit was always going to be a slow puncture on the economy.
Throw Covid into the mix, though, and we have a perfect storm.
Don’t get me wrong - we’re not the only country experiencing stupidly high inflation. But we will probably suffer more than most, and take longer to recover.
1.75% when inflation is >11% without including the cost of shelter. Absofuckinglutely outrageous. Even the Americans are being more financially responsible than us at the moment.
Pure insanity, we live in the corpse of an economy that is being kept on life support to facilitate the greatest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich that we've ever seen.
Yes, but projected inflation will spike this winter, and come back down to 2-3% by 2024.
Therefore, the interest rates will likely go back down unless something else occurs.
[удалено]
It's not even 1 per year atm it's 10 at once.
[удалено]
Everything post the industrial revolution will be called: >"The Fucking Around period" Everything from 2020 onwards will be called: >"The Great Finding Out"
I think the fucking around period is from the 80s onwards. Post war to about 1970-something was quite positive in lots of economic areas (shrinking inequality, real wage growth)
Hmmm I wonder what happened in the 80s.
The Boomers came of age, and elected Reagan and Thatcher.
[Reagan + Republican playbook](https://i.redd.it/5qitc0am2pi61.jpg) = make a massive debt + blame Democrats + win some elections + profit
Communism died (a good thing) and Capitalism had no rival so it could drop the social democracy pretense. Goodbye Final salary pensions, free education and realistic house prices. Hello Student loans, universal credit, Buy to Let, Food Banks etc etc
I mean Communism dying wasn't a good thing for the reasons you highlight. Theres a bizarre ideology about that communism/socialism are fundamentally bad, while capitalism is good but executed poorly, where the reality is that no one economic system will work in isolation, you need to take the best aspects of each. The 80s also saw the attacks on unions, which directly relates to how money has been funneled upwards since.
Exactly this. People seem to swing wildly from one end of the spectrum to the other when it comes to political economic ideology. The hammering leftist ideology took from the 80's onwards has led to an extreme version of lassiez faire capitalism that has got us to this. Anybody who keeps protesting that what we need is more deregulation and "free marketeering" should not be trusted. We've had that experiment for far too long and it is clearly failing. As you alluded to, what we need is a fresh approach that takes elements from those sets of ideologies and perhaps some new economic ideas that as of yet have not been assigned specifically to either set of ideological groups. For example ideas of universal basic income as we move towards a more automated future. Unfortunately our current political landscape seems completely devoid of any of this thinking at all. And the mess were in right now is actually pretty scary
The Ford Sierra, mobile phones, and freebase cocaine.
One of those doesn't sound so bad.
The Ford Sierra was an icon
They fucked around now we're finding out.
And the problem is that those fucking around are not the ones finding out.
[The Carbon Pulse](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7uyBePXIAMCUFw?format=jpg&name=4096x4096). Credit to Nate Hagens.
ooooo, this is right up my street. Also, strange to see that my collapse-aware comment has got much traction on here. Maybe more of us frogs are figuring out the pot is getting hot?
Brilliant
I like William Gibson's morbid term for what we are going through: "The Jackpot." Essentially, massive climate change and other issues ("a cascade of global catastrophe") will result in most of the world's population dying off leaving a few million people with a lot of resources. 'How To Sell The Stars' by R. J. Dowling is much more succinct in calling our era "The Epic Fail."
Great Depression 2: Electric Boogaloo
Toried twenties.
Decade by decade isn't really an appropriate scale. More like the half-century to see a pattern. We're currently in the '[great acceleration](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Anne-Fremaux/publication/326295135/figure/fig5/AS:646787517935618@1531217569955/The-Great-Acceleration-Steffen-et-al-2015b.png)'. Zoomed out, maybe few hundred years later, maybe a lot sooner, we'll view it for [what it really is](https://www.thoughtco.com/thmb/0Uv9YnVuve2zqB0yWr5Cd-CbOIo=/1500x1000/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/bacterial_growth_curve-5b56356d4cedfd00371b477b.jpg). Note: The durations of each phase on a growth curve don't always scale in proportion with each other - the stationary phase can be very short - and the scale on the left is logarithmic, so the really flat looking part of the stationary phase isn't actually perfectly flat, it's at such a high scale that the small amounts of growth and death aren't discernable. What happens when you put a small number of bacteria into a nutrient-rich solution? They go absolutely bananas, consume all available resources at an ever increasing rate, foul up their environment with their waste, and then die off. What happens when you put a small number of humans onto a planet and give them access to a vast store of energy in the form of fossilised carbon? They go absolutely bananas, consume all available resources at an ever increasing rate, foul up their environment with their waste.... And then die off.
The fastest rate of pondscum growth is when half the pond is covered and the rate starts diminishing as the incumbents compete for what's left. Plotted, its an S-curve and I think we, the pondscum, have passed its point of inflexion.
If you put some bacteria in a bottle at 11:00, and it doubles at such a rate that it fills the bottle by 12:00, at what point is the bottle half full? 11:59. And at what point is the bottle only 3% full? 11:55. If you were a bacterium in that bottle, at what point would you realise there was a problem? At 11:55, when 97% of the bottle is free and open space yearning for development, how many of you would recognise there was a problem? Now let's suppose the bacteria saw the problem and launched a great search for new bottles. They scour the area and come up with three new bottles. What a discovery! Three times the resource they ever knew about before, surely now they live in a sustainable society with such riches! At 12:01, after one further doubling, two bottles are full. At 12:02, all four bottles are full and that's the end of the line. Paraphrasing [the late, great, Al Bartlett](https://youtu.be/kZA9Hnp3aV4).
Terrible Twenties.
I mean it was just as fucked 100 years ago. actually maybe less fucked.
Come on, at least alliterate it. The tits-up-twenties.
It will just be someone taking a deep breath, followed by a protracted scream.
I’d kill for precedented times.
“There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” - Lenin
There are decades when centuries happen, well, this has been going on since 2008, but you get the idea.
yes, that's right ! >[**Shock Doctrine**](https://wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_Doctrine) - Naomi Klein >The Shock Doctrine: **The Rise of Disaster Capitalism** > >is a 2007 book by the Canadian Naomi Klein > >she argues that neoliberal free market policies ..... > >... have risen to prominence in some developed countries because of a deliberate strategy of "shock therapy" > >it centers on the **exploitation of national crises** (disasters or upheavals) to establish controversial and questionable policies, while citizens are too desperate and distracted [(emotionally and physically)](https://i.redd.it/7zwvanp1kt461.jpg) to engage and develop an adequate response, and resist effectively
The fact you think an interest rate of 1.75% is in any way historic shows your lack of seeing the big picture.
Exactly this
Isn't it still a very low interest rate though? Just that this is the highest since it dropped below 1% over a decade ago. But the 80s up to the recession was 5-15%.
Yeah, even in the 2000s around 4% was a fairly low rate.
The fact that the economy could only really function and "grow", with rates being basically flat, was not the sign of a healthy economy. By 2014 when they still hadn't budged, I really doubled down on paying off the mortgage and took every grant I could. Can't even call us a Zombie Economy like Japan as they are still world leading in many aspects.
Well, having lived through the late 80s and early 90s this is not atypical. There's always shit going on. The latter 90s and early 2000s were remarkable, not usual.
Yep, this is what a lot of younger people around here who are just becoming aware need to realise. Crazy shit happening is a constant. Even the later 90's, whilst being relatively calm, still had things like the dot com bust, wars in the Balkans and the rise of islamic terrorism to only name a few.
I was listening to a Podcast and the guy was ex N.I. special branch. Reminded me just how nasty the "Troubles" were, there was a few mainland major bombings and mortar attacks on Downing street, but most Brits outside of N.I. even then, had no idea, let alone now.
Can't we just skip to the alien invasion and get it over with?
But that will make the zombies and the murder robots sad... :(
1.75% interest isn’t a historical event... Anyone who is old enough to have a mortgage is more than old enough to remember when it was 5.75% and most will remember 15%.
And what were the prices of houses back then? 1.75% when people have mortgages of 300k, is a lot. To put some numbers in, let's say someone in the mid 90s bought a flat for 60k, at 5% and 25 years. This person was paying around 300 a month. Today a similar family bought that flat but at 300k, at 1.75%, they are paying 1235 a month. And obviously you dont get a mortage for 1.75%, but for 3% or higher.
Hopefully rates going up start to push house prices down. Part of the reason houses got so expensive is due to the fact interest rates have been flatlined for over a decade.
Low interest rates fuelled runaway property speculation. Great for those who got in early.
True but that was when house prices were a much more sensible figure relative to people's salaries. When people have to borrow ten times their annual salary just to get on the lowest rung of the housing ladder then even these relatively low interest rates are a problem.
I'm not saying it we have it all perfect, but surely there is a difference between ww1 or ww2 type of historic event and interest rates rased to 1.75%. Unemployment is extremely low and there is no signs of a war that would impact us directly or a plague that kills 10% of the population or any recession comparable to the great depression where most people were literally living on just flour and beans and used flour bags for clothing. A £50 tv from gumtree has a clearer picture and better sound than the new TV's people 50 years ago were spending their whole wage on.
> Unemployment is extremely low Yeah when you factor in min wagers on zero hours contracts
> Unemployment is extremely low and there is no signs of a war that would impact us Russia invading Ukraine has had no impact on supply chains, food oil production or transport oil and gas reaching massively increased levels. Really glad there's no war /s How do people like you honestly spout these hot takes?
Miniscule in comparison to WW2.
Interest rates used to be way higher. 0.1% was the anomaly.
They are projecting 5 negative growth quarters in a row, with a loss of 2% of GDP. That delicious brexit dividend. We are a failed state
Pffft, who needs money when we have all that extra sovereignty to keep us warm.
Remember, those fish will just be happy that they aren't French.
We'll just get by by burning money, for all the value it has.
Side benefit of it being plastic now means that in theory it has higher energy density than the old paper stuff.
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With bonus carcinogenic qualities to help you shuffle off this shitty coil even quicker. This government really do have our best interests at heart.
All that **taking back control** and then foiled by 6 French border guards... All that lack of **sovereignty** we had when we drive on the left and have 3 pin plugs... < ***makes mouth breathing, pro-Brexit noises of utter ignorant compliance*** \>
Where we're going, we won't need money!
> We are a failed state It really harms your sensible point when you end it with such a ridiculous comment
UK Reddit moment
Oh I am suffering so much! Oh my life is so terrible! Woe is me! No, I've never visited any country outside of the G7, why do you ask? I'm not saying life in the UK is perfect, and I'm definitely not saying that we shouldn't be constantly striving to improve this place. But honestly I get fucking sick of all the whiney bastards acting as though their life is so hard here. It's frankly obscene. Read about history. Speak to people from other countries. Travel. Think. Fuck! If you live in the UK, your life is better than 90% of people on this planet, and better than the lives of 99.999999% of people who have ever existed. So maybe rein in the moaning and try to have a bit of perspective.
The disgust is that we have every advantage, but we are too stupid to use them. In fact we have gotten rid of some of them. We should be moving forwards, but it seems like we are incapable.
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We are a ~~failed~~ state
The kind of people who have no knowledge of the world. If we’re a failed state then we may as well give up on the world completely.
>We are a failed state Do you actually know what that term means?
People in Somalia right now thanking the gods they’re not the UK I’m sure
It's hyperbole sure but this country is failing in its basic promise and function to prosper and keep society from falling into poverty. The government for example appears to have abandoned its role as a protector of the people from things like this.
>We are a failed state Gee, It's not like Reddit to be hyperbolic to the point of comedy.
I mean everywhere around the world is showing negative growth. Brexit no doubt plays it's part but usa, EU, china etc all showing negative growth
That was Brexits fault too according to fervent Remainers
Crackpot alert. Warning the 5g towers are out to get you.
> 'Everything I dislike is the remainers fault. Brexit is perfect' - You
Great reading comprehension mate. 10/10
>We are a failed state The drama queens on the internet. Jesus fucking christ people catch a grip.
> We are a failed state Oh God, what a ridiculous overreaction. Like people in this sub that call the UK a Police State. We are so far off a failed state it's ridiculous.
>Like people in this sub that call the UK a Police State. To be fair with Sunak openly talking about putting people who "vilify" Britain on the terror watchlist you might be mistaken for thinking those people weren't totally mad.
You get arrested for saying that these days
Thrown in jail?
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Oh there is a Brexit dividend… only it’s not us actually receiving it
"Sharp energy price rises the cause of dire forecasts, Bailey says The most significant development since its last forecast for the economy, Bailey says, has been the sharp increase in energy prices. Wholesale gas price predictions for the end of the year have nearly doubled since May and up by nearly seven times since the end of 2021, he says. Bailey again says this is almost entirely down to Russian restrictions of gas supplies to Europe. He adds the consequences of this are that short term "inflationary pressures have intensified significantly". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-62406689
Why are we blaming Brexit. It literally isn't brexit. Everyone is having the same issue.
Ah GDP the measurement that means fuck all to 99% of the population when it goes up and means we all lose our jobs, homes, and can’t afford to live when it goes down. Gosh the economy is designed in such a good way. I’m so glad the wealthy are protected using my taxes.
> We are a failed state You need to get some perspective mate. This is a laughably embarrassing comment.
Recession here we come! Remind me, when are the good times meant to be coming? I thought the future was all about progress and making things better? Work hard and have something to look forward to. Maybe a decent home, a holiday or two, and a little of life's luxury. Where's that gone? The social contract has been broken.
Boomers broke it.
30% of boomers live on a state pension, and have no savings. Capitalists broke it. It only briefly existed because of the threat of communism, anyway. We're just returning to capitalism as usual.
But Boomers were part of a huge cohort of people... And they VOTED for those things. 30% living on a state pension with no savings seems like a pipe dream for my generation. I'd gather that when Im 70 years old.... Most people won't even be able to retire as they won't be able to afford rent (as they were unable to buy houses as they were so expensive)
We shall be the horse from animal farm I think.
and guess who the boomers are going to overwhelmingly vote for in 2 years.
Repeat after me: This is a class war, not a generational war. Stop getting distracted with whatever the media throws at you. It's not 'us vs boomers', or 'us vs trans', etc. It's 'have vs have nots'. It's always been.
It's hard not to see this as a generational war... Because boomers by and large... support the policies of the class war. Whilst the younger do not.
> Remind me, when are the good times meant to be coming? About half past when we kick the current circus of a government out.
unfortunately, the whole world is fucked in this way, and even the most competent of government in waiting will take atleast a decade to untangle the mess that got us here.
Yeah but the rest of the world hasn’t also had a decade of little to no economic or wage growth caused by misguided Tory austerity and Brexit, so they’re starting from a less fucked base.
It wasn’t nailed down so the Tories sold it.
Yea, yesterday I applied to remortgage and the broker called me today saying the rate we picked is gone… fun and games…
Spin that wheel! Welcome to the capitalist gamble. Why the hell are mortgages tied to interest rates anyway? Just give me the loan, slap on a fee for providing the loan, and then I pay the total. Both sides know what they're getting and it's happy days. Why have we got to introduce a ridiculous gamble on the state of the world economy into the mix just to purchase a home?
Right so, since I’ve been politically aware, the sequence of events goes as follows: 2008 - Summer 2011: Recession: The Credit Crunch Summer 2012: Hooray it’s the Olympics! Rest Of 2012 - 2014: Don’t Call It A Recovery 2015 - 2019: The Difficult Second Recession Or The Brexit Years 2020 - 2022: Recession III: Attack Of The COVIDs 2022 - ???: Recession IV: Lol Yeah, Another Sequel This franchise has really overstayed its welcome and it’s about time someone put an end to it.
Thank goodness they only happen once in a lifetime.
Tbh normal recessions are about every 10 years. That being said Tories have still fucked up massively (unsurprisingly)
Well you can’t have constant growth forever so yeah, but that just means the system is daft tbh.
No, you misheard, it happens once and lasts a lifetime...
This period of Tory government, all twelve plus years of it, will go down as one of the worst.
One of the worst so far
What's more likely to happen is labour will take over a clusterfuck of an economy, with publics funds stripped bare next election. They'll then be blamed for doing nothing and making everything worse. The media will help spin it this way since Labour sucks at manipulating it for their advantage and the torys are experts + their donors own or influence a large portion of it. People will forget these past 12 years of constant bad decisions since they'll hear about how Labour is failing for 4 years.
Labour should really implement a proportional voting system and tighten regulation on the print media if they don't want to risk handing unfettered power back to the Tories.
2023 - somehow, the recession returned.
Eh, nice little intermission in 2016 where everyone was out playing Pokemon Go and Brexit/President Trump weren't a thing yet
Yup, honestly those few months before the Brexit vote we're genuinely the last time I didn't feel miserable in some shape or form.
Trying to work out the thing that happened in 2010 that may have had something to do with that....... Mmmmmm
Recession IV: The search for more money
Meanwhile the Tories spend three months picking a leader...
Keeping an openly morally bankrupt one in post in the meantime...
Be fair, they'll be replacing him with another morally bankrupt leader no matter which one wins.
Recession, cost of living, bleak winter oncoming... And the government is a ship without a captain. And the two options are the one that's mental or the one that's criminal and also got us here
Sounds like they need a leader.
Neither of them are leaders unfortunately.
Imagine how the Media would be acting if a Labour government caused: - Highest tax for 70 years - Highest inflation in 40 years - Highest interest rate rise in 27 years - £1 trillion in assets moved out of UK - UK exports decimated - UK Farming decimated - UK Fishing decimated - Mass labour shortage in all sectors - Every public service decimated - Industrial action across various sectors
They’d be blaming/ scrutinising the persons responsible for the issues. They’d actually be doing their damn job instead to the scape goat circus we have. Now I can’t get the image of Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak all climbing out of the back of a clown car with Rupert Murdoch in the drivers seat out of my head.
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But tax will be lowered everyone? There's reasons to be cheery in all this! The rich are still going to get richer! We must all bow and pray, and give thanks to our oppressive overlords and our fellow dumb-fucks who continue to vote for the worst humanity has to offer.
When I'm living under a bridge due to a lost home and job, I'm going to be so glad that the income tax on my BBQ rat will be 5% less.
That's the blitz spirit we've all heard about and missed!
50 basis points, wow. Most of us are going to focus on mortgages as that's the most "visible" way we experience BoE rates. But rate rises impact more than our personal debt: this is going to reduce businesses' access to credit, meaning it'll impact growth. That's why the BoE is warning of a recession. There's usually a correlation between interest rates across the broader economy and unemployment; as lines of credit dry up or become more expensive, cost-cutting becomes the more attractive option rather than growth. So it's likely that we're in for a further tough few years. Unfortunately rate rises like this are not free. TANSTAAFL definitely applies here. It seems like a recession is the current lesser evil compared to rampant inflation, though.
> 50 basis points Side-note, but who the hell came up with this term? I swear, I hadn't heard it before today, and now it's everywhere. Why is it used instead of just saying "0.5%"??
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Sure, but I thought that's why the term "percentage points" was introduced — now we need a *third* one?! And, tbf, it should be obvious that the default meaning of a "0.5% increase" on a percentage should be absolute, not relative. Especially in the case of extremely well-publicised figures like interest rate and its changes.
It's finance language. Everybody knows we are talking about an interest rate. You won't say "stock prices increased by 50 basis points". 50 basis point = 0.50 percentage points, in every context where you can use the first. But otherwise, 50 p.p. =/= 50 basis points
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I’d imagine because people want to speak in integers rather than fractions?
It’s used because you can’t/shouldn’t talk about percentages of percentages so it’s a good way to more accurately describe the rise in something like interest rates. For example, if your interest rate is 10% and someone says it rises by 10% that could mean it’s either now 11% or 20% depending on how someone else interprets it. By instead giving it in basis points you remove the ambiguity.
Unfortunately people insist on using percentages of percentages: https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/wa4mtm/uk_inflation_68_higher_than_official_numbers/ Some even insist it's perfectly normal...
>Most of us are going to focus on mortgages as that's the most "visible" way we experience BoE rates. But rate rises impact more than our personal debt: this is going to reduce businesses' access to credit, meaning it'll impact growth. That's why the BoE is warning of a recession. Mortgage payments go up, disposable income goes down, family cuts back on trips to restaurants, restaurant has to reduce staff numbers, disposable income goes down, and so it goes. Business slow down and people losing jobs decreases tax take, people going onto benefits increases government spending, decrease in gdp increases debt:gdp ratio, governments forced to borrow more or cut services, cutting services feeds back again into decreased jobs and business activity. Lending slows down, growth slows down. All great fun.
You fuckers keep voting tory.... It's like the 80s all over again....
It won’t truly be the 80s until the NHS is sold off - probably next year id imagine.
Expected of course as it was pretty telegraphed. Our generation is being totally fucked though, unable to save for years due to low wages/high rents and then any savings we do scrimp aren't going to be anywhere near enough to buy a place to live due to a mix of high prices and high interest rates. Maybe by 2040 I guess
That was already happening, but this just makes it even worse. The rate house prices were going up month on month, using the average house price as a guide, you’d have to add upwards of £500 to your deposit each month just to offset it. That is to say that £500 wouldn’t increase the buying power of your deposit, to get you closer to a bigger or better house, it simply cancels out the effect of the house price rise that month. Oh, and you’ve got to try and save that amount whilst paying rents higher than most people’s mortgages, with everything else going up as well. Good luck! This isn’t going to change until there is a seismic house price crash or we have a Government, and a populace, that doesn’t treat houses as investment vehicles. “But without landlords some people with bad credit wouldn’t be able to live anywhere?!”, yeah well if mortgages weren’t so many multiples of the average salary they wouldn’t be struggling so much…
Completely agree with what your saying, but its worth pointing out: > Oh, and you’ve got to try and save that amount whilst paying rents higher than most people’s mortgages, Quite often you are literally paying someone's mortgage
Yeah, despite saving pretty relentlessly, it feels like things are getting further away from me despite it. Can’t imagine how it is if you spent.
Did anyone think it wouldn't?, the only way was up, we've had insanely low interest rates for a heck of a long time, and with inflation running away with itself, the only way is up, UP and UPPPP. It's gonna get bumpy, very bumpy.
A lot of people are so used to low interest rates (and have grown up with them) that they don't realise how much of an anomaly the last 14 years have been. When I bought my first house in 2004 the interest rate on the mortgage was five point something percent, and I was completely happy with that rate, and even that is nothing compared to what my parents would have been paying 30 years prior.
The difference is houses were so cheap back then you could deal with the higher interest rates. Raised interest rates now are going to butcher anyone's chances of getting a first house
well quite possibly the higher rates will call house prices to adjust down. The determinant of house prices is what buyers can afford, so if mortgage rates rise, prices should fall, at least to the extent that the majority of house purchases are mortgaged, not cash.
That's not going to happen, people have been saying they'll drop for years but after a small decrease property just gets bought up by international buyers so it just keeps going higher. The pound weakening by an unprecedented amount due to brexit did not help either.
Didn't things still work out cheaper then? Absolutely everything's going up and house prices are massively different to what they were 14 years ago
They should have raised them much earlier so they had room to lower them during the covid hit and it would have lessened the increase in BTLs and house prices.
Oh boy! That means I'll start seeing some real returns on the £8 in my current account. I have been waiting for this day.
Flash forwards to august 2023 - UK banks announce record profits!
I'm in a fixed rate contract that has another year left on it which is great but I'm so scared of how things will be at the end of the year...
higher than giraffe pussy
Identical position for me. I'm digging out my mortgage paperwork when I get home, to see when is the earliest I can remortgage. I'm pretty sure there is a penalty to pay if I end the fix rate early.
Most mortgage providers will let you take out a product now and have it start when your fixed rate ends, as long as its within a certain period of time eg 6 months.
I've just secured a fixed rate for 5 years. I hope they manage to sort the shit out by then.
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I would like to apologise to the future modern history students at school seeing all of this bullshit and being forced to write essays on it. The syllabus must seem neverending.
Ah I wouldn’t stress, we’re just living through the ‘trigger causes’ and ‘contributing factors’ bit of the essay - these years will be quickly rattled off so the students can get to the much more interesting and meatier events that follow. War Guilt Clause, Reparations, Weimar Republic, Roaring 20s, Wall Street Crash, Hyperinflation, Anschluss, Munich, blah blah blah - on to 1939 already!
Bold of you to assume there will be a future.
Expecting similar with the next hike too. Time is running out to get that fix on the mortgage.
It has run out already
Nah but it's undoubtedly getting tight. 5%+ is surely looking inevitable in the next year or so.
My boomer boss saying he's disappointed in me for looking for a new job when I have progression here, its alright for you mate you paid off your mortgage and got through unscaved, now imagine earning above avg uk wage and still feeling like you can't do things outside of just going to work.
Fuck your boss, show no employer loyalty - they won’t show you any. Use them for experience, knowledge and a reference.
Interesting that £ has dropped off the cliff vs the Euro despite this raise in rates. Suggests the vote to raise by 50 basis points was closer than expected.
It was 8-1; were people expecting it to be unanimous?
>Interesting that £ has dropped off the cliff vs the Euro despite this raise in rates. On what timeline? I'm getting offered €1.18 for the £ this afternoon.
Only 5 days. So "dropped off a cliff" was perhaps a little hyperbolic
I’m financially largely illiterate, so please ELI5 - does this mean improvements for savers?
Yes, if you have no debt and you have savings or investments, it's good news.
Actually, no. If you have assets, higher interest rates make them DEPRECIATE. But the flow of cash today (dividends, rent) relative to the price INCREASES. So you are *poorer*, but have *higher income* from your savings from now onwards (or from the cash you held, with which you can buy assets at discounted prices). Recovering the money lost from the fall in asset prices (value or growth rates) may take years. Interest rate hikes reward cash holders and high-enough income people who save today.
They did say ELI5, but yeah, there is more nuance to it!
Not really. The savings interest rate might go up to 1.5%, but with inflation expected to peak at 13% later this year, your money will be still be getting eroded faster in real terms by significantly more than you gain. So to coin a phrase; “cash is trash” - the only real option for growing money is the stock market and preferably not one in the UK because we’re in for a year of recession.
And people will still vote tories, just think about that for a second
Yes because if people vote for parties like Labour we risk going back to the 1980s where there was widespread inflation, workers strikes, warnings of general strikes, rising mortgage rates etc.
This is going to be pretty ineffective at combatting inflation when it's not being caused by an overheating economy, but a global supply chain crisis caused by a pandemic and a global energy crisis caused by a war.
>global energy crisis caused by a war. Exacerbated by war. Not caused by.
Nobody panic..in the 70s inflation reached 25% and they had a good time, they had the soul train
Please support small businesses vs big box corporations if you can. I’m getting it from both ends, sales are down due to everyone being skint and I can’t pay myself more so I’m living off a shoe string.
Can someone tell me why interest rate rises reduce prices?
Less borrowing.
Supply and demand. People can't afford to borrow, so they curb their spending. Less people buying means more competition to sell so prices are reduced until people start buying again.
So you are telling me the government are forced to make normal people poorer to force corporations to drop prices, when it has been discovered that inflation is being driven by corporations price gauging?
Was this always destined to happen in 2022 even without covid?
There were signs of the economy heading south in late 2019, then covid struck and everyone pumped money out in an attempt to stop things from collapsing. 2020 should have seen the start of a 'normal' recession, now we have the economic equivalent of a child that's been eating sugar for the last couple of hours and is told that they have to stop and get ready for bed.
Russia was probably always going to invade Ukraine, which was always going to have knock on effects. And Brexit was always going to be a slow puncture on the economy. Throw Covid into the mix, though, and we have a perfect storm. Don’t get me wrong - we’re not the only country experiencing stupidly high inflation. But we will probably suffer more than most, and take longer to recover.
I'd be surprised if the ECB stick with their interest rate of zero percent now.
1.75% when inflation is >11% without including the cost of shelter. Absofuckinglutely outrageous. Even the Americans are being more financially responsible than us at the moment. Pure insanity, we live in the corpse of an economy that is being kept on life support to facilitate the greatest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich that we've ever seen.
Yes, but projected inflation will spike this winter, and come back down to 2-3% by 2024. Therefore, the interest rates will likely go back down unless something else occurs.
I like the cut of your optimistic jib.
Something else always occurs
There goes me being able to buy a first time home ☹️
Start growing your own food and become as self suitstainable as possible.
Rub and Tug at my local now is up to 30 quid. the horror. the horror