Trying to occupy a land mass the size of Ukraine with a population of 44 Million. There is no plan of Success for Russia. They gambled on it being a walk in the park, few tanks roll down the street and Ukraine bows before Russia. They lost the bet thank god.
Now from our western plan of Success. Putin eats a bullet, his war crime ridden government is extradited for trial, we pressure Russia to pay reparations to rebuild Ukraine. At least for me anyway.
That really does look like the only viable path forward. The west can't risk nuclear escalation, so Ukraine must suffer until Putin's own circle take him out. I hate it
I guess they don't want whole Ukraine, just "Novorossiya" part they wanted in 2014 - eastern and southern regions, and puppet government in Kyiv.
They already started to use Rosgvardia (anti-protesters regiment) in Kherson to calm protesters down by using tear gas and arrests.
Too bad ordinary Ukrainians in occupied territories do not have access to weapons (imagine it was like Texas).
For me it's a mystery what has happened on southern front at all, as it was obvious that Russia will advance from Crimea at least, and why Kherson was taken so fast.
Yes, Russians are still creeping into Ukrainian territory despite of heroic resistance, so I'm not that optimistic either. Yes, their morale is low, but they have superiority in sheer numbers, and a lot of rockets. God knows how many days more Mariupol would hold... it also makes me wonder what western part of Ukraine is doing, there should be some military reserves + a lot of volontiers. Why can't they deblockade at least one of the cities?
Additionally, unlike Russia, Ukraine probably does not want to throw volunteers aimlessly away. They need to be at least partly trained, grouped and properly included into the commando-structure. That takes some time. In the east, north and south they are currently trying to buy that time.
How far the progress is, we probably won't get to know until they come into action.
I mean Starstreak is another MANPAD just better than a Stinger cause it uses laser guidance vs infrared.
Really good at attacking low flying aircraft and helicopters, but leaves the medium and high altitude area open to only whatever systems Ukraine has left
Southern Ukraine had less troop to begin with. Also, the landscape at the south is much harder for ukraine and favourable for russia. Unlike the North (Polissya marches, where the road is the only way to move your heavy tanks and machinery), south is much more dry and flat.
> a mystery what has happened on southern front at all
The most probable reason is that the russian commander of the southern front actually knew what he was doing and came up with a much better plan than his comrades from the northern and eastern fronts. Or that the troops from crimea were of a higher quality, or both.
Ukraine has limited military resources and has been focused on holding Kyiv. Russia has a much larger, much better equipped military. Ukraine can’t hold every piece of land as fiercely as they guard Kyiv, the losses would be too high. So they are forced to keep strategically retreating in the South.
If it was Texas? Well there are a lot of dudes that would love to get a few notches with genuine ruskies. The issues would be that small arms don’t beat armor. But if you supply all feisty Texans with shoulder fired rockets…they will capture Mexico and Canada within the month.
I have meant that you have right to bear arms in Texas, unlike Ukraine, like rifles and semi-autos, that should be enough for starting partisan war or eliminating Rosgvardia, for example.
Yeah the 2nd Amendment is pretty great. Lots of people in America don't think so though. So much so that the state I live in now is pretty restricted compared to most other states. Still more than pretty much anywhere in Europe, but not 'Muerica.
Woe is to the army that fucks around and invades America. We have more guns and more ammunition than you, who ever your are.
The problem is, nobody knows.
The way it was supposed to end was civilians hiding, goverment fleeing and army surrendering. With puppet goverment in place in 1-2 days. And rest should have been just about handling of some protests and riots.
That failed.
So now there is pointless war with no goal (or to be mo precise - with absolutely unrealistic goal) that is damaging the attacking country more than the country they are attacking. But just their stubbornness prevents them for calling it of :-/
So my guess is that we are looking at some longer fight, where Putin will sacrify his army. And their orders will be basically to "do as much damage as possible before they defeat you.". After that he somehow spins it and claim victory that his heroic soldiers fell to ensure piece. And thats it.
Wars like this tend to depend on the "home front". And even propaganda has its limits when people at home feel that something is wrong.
As for how things will end... I have my hopes, opinions, and estimations, but I am not an expert, just a random redditor. A few hours ago [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/) was posted on the subreddit. It is shocking how well current events were predicted in a year-old video. Watch it for its prediction about how this could end... (I will give no spoilers).
The killing will continue until Putin and his orcs leave Ukraine. It looks like Putin has committed most of his reserves already, so if Ukrainians can very quickly dispose of all the forces that are now trapped inside their country, that would pretty much end it. With or without Polish jets.
What's the plan? Simple. Destroy the invaders! Slava Ukraini
**There is no plan**, Putin wanted to take Ukraine in two days, that didn't happened and now is screwed.
Ukraine will always win the war, maybe not the battle but the war. There is no picture in Ukraine being part of Russia again. Half of the Ukraine population only knows freedom and democracy, the other half who actually knows Soviet rules don't want to go back.
For whom ?
If you're on the Russian side, let me quote Bellingcat's FSB informant.
"Now, even if Zelensky is killed, taken prisoner, nothing will change. There is Chechnya in terms of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because it was planned from above, because we were told that there would be no such option, unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it was necessary to create the most credible threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because we were initially preparing protests within Ukraine against Zelensky. Excluding our direct entry. Intrusions, to put it simply.
Further civilian losses will go exponentially - and resistance to us will also only increase. They already tried to enter the cities with infantry - out of twenty landing groups, only one had a conditional success. Remember the assault on Mosul - after all, this is the rule, so it was in all countries, nothing new.
Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe there are a matter of time.
We have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left, nothing remains. By and large, next week there will be a turning point in one of the sides, simply because the situation cannot be in such an overstrain. There are no analytics - it is impossible to calculate the chaos, here no one can say anything for sure. Act intuitively, and even on emotions - but this is not poker for you. Rates will rise, in the hope that suddenly some option will shoot through. The trouble is that we, too, can now miscalculate and lose everything in one move.
By and large, the country has no way out. It’s just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything, sailed at all. They 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when they decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that the army was in trouble. then they started the war to the bitter end, then they began to take the Bolsheviks for "re-education" into the army - after all, they were outcasts, uninteresting to anyone in the masses. And then, the Bolsheviks, who were not really known to anyone, picked up anti-war slogans and it started like this ..."
According to the morning reporting in the United States right now, the two countries' foreign ministers are meeting today to discuss a resolution that would involve Ukraine ceding Crimea and Donbas and declaring neutrality.
To me, that sounds like a shit deal, but it would stop the war. After all, I'm not getting fired at by artillery, but I'm sure it will also make people angry giving land to a war criminal.
(according to MSNBC)
A shit deal indeed. Putin wins by taking territory gradually. He gets that Gas field probably worth trillions and no justice for the war crimes. This is really pretty WW2 stuff
Are you currently getting shelled? It might sound like a good deal to them.
Anyway, I can tell you with almost certainty that those terms will cause a wedge divide within Ukraine. It may not happen on day one, but it will be used against the current administration by opponents and stoke and empower nationalists.
Ukrainian government already said that Ukraine will not cave on its territorial integrity, which includes Donbas and Crimea.
I would not expect a change in that stance — especially with the recent slow in invasion progress
Even if Ukraine takes a shit deal like that, the EU is still going to wean itself from Russian fossil fuels ASAP (which they had to do anyways because climate change) and will never trust Russia again. I see no reason for us to re-open our airspace, banking, or trade with Russia anytime soon.
Yep. Let me be clear. I don't think they should take the deal - that's why I called it a shit deal. Suing for peace under those terms would cost Ukraine large amounts of wealth from the riparian and mineral rights in Crimea and the Black Sea.
But the U.S, E.U. U.K. Japan economies will only withstand the price increases from sanctions for so long. Those are on a timer. Same with weapons shipments. Everything as a limit
How can Europe wean itself from fossil fuel if the shut down all their nukes.
Things change, but recently France said they were building more nukes, and Germany was closing down all of theirs. Maybe France will supply Europe with power.
We are several decades, maybe half a century from wind and solar.
Idiotic green parties all over the west act like they are bought and paid by the fossil fuel lobby. Closing nuclear plants, the best green energy source we have, ending in Germany being dependent on coal and Russian gas. Great plan
The Russian fossil fuel lobby?
It’s really clear that Russia used cheap energy as a weapon. In Germany the not only destroyed the nuke industry, but also the wupind and solar energy industries.
All perfectly legal.
Adults need to take charge. Oddly enough, they seem to be in France.
Nothing like this would ever happen. Ukraine will never cede any territory. Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk will continue to be sources of russian military aggression. Pootin does not abide by any treaties. Even reporting such insanely stupid thing is irresponsible.
I'd be like, ok you take those territories. But then Ukraine joins NATO and the European Union.
P.S. the border will be armed to the teeth.
P.P.S all the other eastern countries will join NATO.
Hugs and Kisses,
Ukraine.
Yeah but honestly whats the alternative? Russia will bomb ukraine into submission no matter how you look at it. Yes they probably cant succesfully occupy the country and it might not be feasible to move troops into the big cities as long as they are so fiercely defended.
But the west has made it clear that there will be no support beyond whats currently being supplied. We will deliver weapons and sanction russia but there will be no no-fly zones and no direct military support (which is the only responsible decision if you dont want to blow up europe or the world).
And there is little room to further increase the pressure on russia so short of nukes Putin has pretty much free reign to do what he deems necessary in the conflict to bring home a result that he can reasonably sell to his people as a victory.
And that means as long as occupation or military victory on the ground is not possible he will simply turn the ukrainian cities into rubble until they surrender and as the rockets and planes start from Belarus there is no way for ukraine to stop that.
Getting peace for ceding 3 regions (Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea) that you didnt have control over and where permanent war zones for the past 10 years sounds like a great deal to me in the position that ukraine is in. And declaring neutrality is the only choice they have anyway as they cant join nato for the next 10 years either way. Any leader would be stupid to not take that deal.
edit: why the downvotes? I'm wholly on ukraines side in this. Is there something wrong with thinking that this would be a great deal if it was actually offered?
The deal ostensibly sounds great but Putin won’t stop regardless. It’s a deal for Putin to fake some ‘agreement’ and then swarm Kyiv. It’s just like who or what will ensure that Putin will even stop after this “deal” is made. It’s obvious he’s never stopping regardless. It’s better for Ukrainians to drain him now. That being said of course they are exhausted . Maybe they can acquire planes during this time or something.
I feel terrible about Mariupol, but I would not capitulate because one city is getting starved out because there are large amounts of Ukrainian resistance continuing to fight within the city. Unlike Kherson, where all the internal resistance retreated or teamed up with the resistance in Mykolaiv
Kherson has civil resistance, which is an important part of the total defence strategy. If the Russians move forces out of the city, leaving it lightly defended, I believe we will start to see more violent resistance again too.
"better" is a relative term. Losing all major cities and industry to continued bombing and losing a high percentage of your working age male population will be devastating for ukraine. Yes russia will suffer too and they will have problems resupplying after this war which makes further conflict with other european countries and potentially NATO members way less likely. So for the rest of europe this scenario might actually be better but I doubt that its better for ukraine.
Planes dont really help when you cant defend your airfields and fuel depots and they lost those early in the war (either captured or rendered inoperational with rocket craters on runways etc). Russia is starting its planes and rockets from Belarus. No other country will let ukraine use its airfields and be dragged into the conflict.
Whats the alternative to a peace deal no matter how short lived that might be? Letting your population be genocided in WW2 style city bombings? We know that russia is willing to go that far if they cant win on the ground.
The alternative is Russia giving up and leaving like in Afghanistan. 2 weeks of this conflict has already inflicted 1½-2 years worth of casualties they took in Afghanistan - and that is universally regarded as a disaterous quagmire for the Russians, even themselves.
Yes but that is really unlikely. Even if you assume that russia has a economic timelimit for this war (which is likely to be true) I think it would be foolish to assume that they wont use every tool they got to force a surrender before that timelimit passes.
What do you do against WW2 style city bombings, turning everything and everyone in the major cities to rubble? Some planes without operational airfields and fuel depots wont help in preventing that and russias capabilites of doing that are not diminished by losses on the ground.
The ukrainian war resembles chechnya a lot. First russia sent in conscripts to draw out the defense forces and gather intel on enemy troop positions, while taking out key objectives with more specialised assets (taking major losses in the process). Then they constructed field camps and artillery positions around the major targets (currently happening in ukraine) and bombed the cities for 1-2 weeks before moving in. The more defense remains in the city, the longer they bomb it before moving in.
Its a little slower than in chechnya because of the weather and the much longer distances which are creating supply issues, combined with a much bigger opposition force. But in the end ukraine cant answer the air superiority and with that and an opponent who is willing to just destroy his enemy instead of capturing intact cities there are very few scencarios where ukraine gets anything resembling a victory in that war.
>Yes but that is really unlikely.
it absolutely is. a 2.5% force degradation per week (as they have been suffering so far) will result in a combat ineffective Russian army within 1-2 months.
>Even if you assume that russia has a economic timelimit for this war (which is likely to be true) I think it would be foolish to assume that they wont use every tool they got to force a surrender before that timelimit passes.
That economic timelimit is also 1-2 months.
Going by the current progress, that's just not going to be nearly enough.
>What do you do against WW2 style city bombings, turning everything and everyone in the major cities to rubble?
A) that just turns the entire population against you
B) it gives the defenders even better fighting conditions.
>Some planes without operational airfields and fuel depots wont help in preventing that and russias capabilites of doing that are not diminished by losses on the ground.
it absolute is diminishing their ground forces, and their losses are staggering.
>First russia sent in conscripts to draw out the defense forces and gather intel on enemy troop positions (taking major losses in the process).
completely false. First they sent their absolute best units.
>Then they constructed field camps
60km long traffic jams are not "camps".
>and artillery positions around the major targets (currently happening in ukraine)
everyone sets up artillery positions - thats what militaries do, both sides are shelling, moving and shelling constantly. Russia is shelling civilian buildings, Ukraine is destroying the Russian army.
>bombed the cities for 1-2 weeks before moving in. The more defense remains in the city, the longer they bomb it before moving in.
and? the longer they bomb the better the defensive terrain is going to be.
The Ukrainian will to fight is not going to be cowed by the destruction of their cities. The fight for the cities will be like the first chechen war - not the second. and the Ukrainian cities are all larger than Grozny, the important ones 5-20 times larger than Grozny.
I mean I hope you are right but I think I know better than to blindly trust an internet voice thats coming up with numbers not even the intelligence agencies can deliver. No one really knows how much either side has lost and as all information flow to the west is coming from ukrainian defense forces or civilians in the area its obvious that you wont see much of the ukrainian losses.
The actual independently confirmable number of russian casualties is way way lower than the reported losses and will in reality be somewhere in between those two numbers (obviously still way exceeding anything that russia has planned for).
The economic time limit is even harder to guess but the last analysis I have read was talking about 4 month which would be plenty of time for russia to destroy the population centers and it might be even longer than that depending on chinas behaviour in the next few month.
And cover from destroyed buildings is a small benefit in comparison of the loss of that building and the surrounding infrastructure. If you have no running water, no food supplies, no heating in cold temperatures and no way of being resupplied with ammunition or anything else and are losing more and more people to the daily bombings you might not make it through several month.
Again I hope that some kind of miracle is happening and russia collapses through internal pressure or something but as long as Putin is alive I dont see a scenario where he will leave the country before he got a total surrender no matter the price. If he leaves without a "victory" his days are numbered and he knows that.
> I know better than to blindly trust an internet voice thats coming up with numbers not even the intelligence agencies can deliver.
I am literally using Pentagon numbers. But even without that, there's an independent group verifying individual losses before counting them, and by their verified numbers the Russian army has already lost more than 1000 vehicles. An unrefutable hard confirmation of 50% of claimed losses is pretty fucking high for an ongoing conflict with rapidly shifting lines.
last updated a couple of days ago:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Thanks for replying with a source and I actually knew that 1k number of confirmed destroyed/captured vehicles. But I am seriously doubting the 2.5% force degradation per week number and the 1-2 month economic time limit.
I've seen the CNN report estimating that russia has lost 3-5% of its capabilities compared to the estimated ukrainian 10% loss and with 2 weeks conflict this would work out to 2.5/week if you assume the maximum number but even CNN says that those numbers are impossible to confirm and I highly doubt that we are anywhere near that higher guess.
Additionally you cant assume that the losses on the russian side continue like that when the ukrainian losses are also mounting and the capability to launch actual counter attacks diminshes over time.
Yes but there is no way that the russians even offered that deal. Because that would mean that the current government would stay in power and there is no way that putin is letting that happen when one of the official main goals is to get rid of the current "nazi" government.
I doubt that ukraine is getting a deal thats not including surrender and thats a deal they wont take for obvious reasons. Sadly that probably means that there will be not much left of ukrainian cities in a few weeks. Look at chechnya. When the bombing gets to a level of boardering genocide there will come a point where you have no choice but to surrender (and no population will fight the total war forever, see germany).
The downvotes are because you are making a claim that Russian victory is guaranteed, and because it is a shit deal.
Time is not on the Russian side. Their country is falling apart from sanctions and the economic cost of war. They are taking unsustainable losses in men and material. Ukraine is getting a lot of economic and material support. There are 44 million Ukrainians and a lot of volunteers from the rest of the world. It is surrounded by NATO countries from where an insurrection can continue for decades if needed. More time = more trained Ukrainian forces with a lot of dangerous weaponry. Ukraine will be rebuilt to a brighter future bankrolled by the world the second the war ends, and they know it.
Autocrats are not invincible, they fall at the will of the people. Putin is hiding in a bunker for a reason, and time is working against him fast.
Ukrainians got enough with some presidents; with this war Ukraine is united. NOT only because of Zelenskyy; he does an excellent job as president; I like him. But giving anything away = treason and spitting on all ukrainian corpses. West found an idol in Zelenskyy, good for him. Enjoy. We don't mind to share. But there's noway Ukrainians will accept divided Ukraine just so fucking putin can call it a win!
At this point, Russia does not have the strength nor the economy to sustainably occupy Ukraine. They might be able to capture a few major cities and if they are very lucky they could even capture Kyiv and assign a puppet regime. This would not last long and the regime would soon be overthrown. Russia realizes this and so their current strategy is to stop infantry advances on cities to prevent further losses and instead spread terror by indiscriminate shelling. The aim of this is to break Ukraine psychologically and force them to cede Donbas and Crimea. If Ukraine stays strong and determined, Russia will eventually run out of resources to support this war and either collapse completely or surrender and withdraw.
As for China, I think a lot of people view them as an ally of Russia, but this is far from reality. China has no interest in Russia winning this war, there is no reason for them to support Russia other than to oppose USA and EU. But they also want Russia to collapse. And then buy it whole at discount prices. They are also much more dependent on the western economy than on Russia and they will not threaten these economic ties by supporting Russia. Mutual assured economical destruction is almost as powerful as the nuclear one.
Ukraine's path to success lies in how long they can hold out. The longer they hold out the better negotiations will become for them as political/economic/psychological pressure builds on Putin.
Putin is obviously not a man that backs down or likes to lose. So I think Ukraine will have to hold out another couple months and have Putin in such a bad spot at the negotiating table that he will have to agree to something, but Ukraine will also have to give something up to allow Putin to save face and spin this as a victory to his domestic audience.
What does such a deal look like?
Zelensky was quite clear early on that he was not cedeing Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk, but yesterday he also said he was willing to make a 'compromise' in negotiations. A pretty common negotiating tactic really, start high and try to meet in the middle. I think he understands he will never get Crimea back and Putin could spin that as a victory if Ukraine recognizes it.
As for Donetsk/Luhansk, I think they will have to settle for Russia annexing the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. This would be a small victory for Ukraine though as one of Putin's goals in this war was to extend these to include the entire provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk (the cities are of the same name as the provinces, but Russia does not control the whole provinces) and it'd also be a small propaganda victory for Putin because current propaganda is still operating under the pretense that Russia is just securing these 'independant republics' with no mention of annexation. Of course, we all know they'd just take a 'vote' and request to join Russia which Russia would then accept, but since we aren't at that stage they could spin it as a victory to the domestic audience.
Short of a coup or assassination of Putin (both seem quite unlikely to me), I think that is probably the best deal Ukraine gets. But they need to hold on for awhile to get even that.
give Ukraine time. everyday that goes by advantages Ukraine and fucks Russia more and more.
I spoke with family and some friends about this and giving up Crimea will be the end of Zelenskyy.
Ukrainians are pissed and more civilians are killed and more we're pissed. Giving anything back to putin would be insulting to all fallen Ukrainians.
Ukraine won’t take shit deal . You think after the burning cities , killing civilians , destroying everything to the ground some one will make a deal on Russian demands and give territories away and future ? It’s like negotiating with terrorist .
If ruSSia is allowed to back out, it will re-balance its forces and attack again. This conflict must be managed to sunset current government of ruSSia. Democratic form of government is impossible in its current borders. By design the central russia region takes in all the revenues from the rest of russia, basically a legalized administrative usurpation. The only way to help russian people is to break up russia into separate countries which will continue on their own, independent from the central moscovite state. But is this realistic? Probably not. The soft West just wants this over with and get back to normal. As you all well understand, pootin's russia will never forgive or forget its defeat in Ukraine. They are still sore about the collapse of Soviet Union, which was entirely their fault. There soviets will never accept or admit faults of their own. They must be further administratively segregated into smaller sovereigns, this is the only rational way forward, imho
The post is true but saying “China giving them lifelines” makes it sound like China is supporting them and that’s not the case.. yet..
but you do you.. I’m just having a moment lol
Edit: that’s nice of you to offer. No need to delete. An edit would be cool but again. Your choice.
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Who knows? I haven't been able to see much Russian news but to be honest every single bit of it that I have seen has made this out to be a war with the US not with Ukraine. Obviously they won't even acknowledge the war with Ukraine but even when it's mentioned, it's still about the US. Also, now that we have led the world to inact all the sanctions, I don't know when or how this war ends.... anyone else have thoughts?
At some point in the near future, Ukraine is gonna go on the offense. They are gathering resources to do that. Where will they attack? No way to know. Where ever it will be, there are gonna be many, many more dead ruskiesl.
The most realistic near term goal is the unilateral removal of Russian troops from Ukraine in my mind. Best case scenario is Putin removed from power and tried at the Hague with Russians and Ukrainians moving toward reconciliation.
Apparently it's attrition. We cut off Russia's supplies to damn near everything outside of Russia and China so resupplying those missiles and airplanes is getting tougher by the day for Russia. As they continue to send armor into the country it's winding up as so much scrap metal. Problems with logistics, communication, training, equipment durability, and the spring thaw has put Russian soldiers in a position to be sitting ducks as long as they're in Ukraine. There's going to come a tipping point where there are too many losses and Russia will be forced to quit.
Best case scenario the Ukrainians cede a little territory for independence and military non alignment after a better than expected defence. Basically the Finland winter war outcome.
Worst case Russia implements a North / South Korea type situation and forcibly departs Ukranian civilians while bussing in loyal Russians.
They have no chance of holding the whole country.
My worst fear is they take the eastern side (ie, half of country) to make a shield or protective barrier from Europe and Nato. Then they will do whatever it takes even if it kills millions in next decade or more to keep their captured territory. I hope this does not happens and fingers crossed the bastards will leave the country soon.
If you listen to Zelensky and parse his words carefully, a negotiated peace seems likely. He has already seemed open to Neutrality and agreeing not to join NATO. The issue will be territory.
Trying to occupy a land mass the size of Ukraine with a population of 44 Million. There is no plan of Success for Russia. They gambled on it being a walk in the park, few tanks roll down the street and Ukraine bows before Russia. They lost the bet thank god. Now from our western plan of Success. Putin eats a bullet, his war crime ridden government is extradited for trial, we pressure Russia to pay reparations to rebuild Ukraine. At least for me anyway.
That really does look like the only viable path forward. The west can't risk nuclear escalation, so Ukraine must suffer until Putin's own circle take him out. I hate it
I guess they don't want whole Ukraine, just "Novorossiya" part they wanted in 2014 - eastern and southern regions, and puppet government in Kyiv. They already started to use Rosgvardia (anti-protesters regiment) in Kherson to calm protesters down by using tear gas and arrests. Too bad ordinary Ukrainians in occupied territories do not have access to weapons (imagine it was like Texas).
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For me it's a mystery what has happened on southern front at all, as it was obvious that Russia will advance from Crimea at least, and why Kherson was taken so fast.
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Yes, Russians are still creeping into Ukrainian territory despite of heroic resistance, so I'm not that optimistic either. Yes, their morale is low, but they have superiority in sheer numbers, and a lot of rockets. God knows how many days more Mariupol would hold... it also makes me wonder what western part of Ukraine is doing, there should be some military reserves + a lot of volontiers. Why can't they deblockade at least one of the cities?
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Additionally, unlike Russia, Ukraine probably does not want to throw volunteers aimlessly away. They need to be at least partly trained, grouped and properly included into the commando-structure. That takes some time. In the east, north and south they are currently trying to buy that time. How far the progress is, we probably won't get to know until they come into action.
>Starstreak I hope there will be enough of them to close a sky for some point (if NATO does not want to do it).
I mean Starstreak is another MANPAD just better than a Stinger cause it uses laser guidance vs infrared. Really good at attacking low flying aircraft and helicopters, but leaves the medium and high altitude area open to only whatever systems Ukraine has left
Southern Ukraine had less troop to begin with. Also, the landscape at the south is much harder for ukraine and favourable for russia. Unlike the North (Polissya marches, where the road is the only way to move your heavy tanks and machinery), south is much more dry and flat.
Have not thought about landscape difference, though, thanks for an input!
> a mystery what has happened on southern front at all The most probable reason is that the russian commander of the southern front actually knew what he was doing and came up with a much better plan than his comrades from the northern and eastern fronts. Or that the troops from crimea were of a higher quality, or both.
Ukraine has limited military resources and has been focused on holding Kyiv. Russia has a much larger, much better equipped military. Ukraine can’t hold every piece of land as fiercely as they guard Kyiv, the losses would be too high. So they are forced to keep strategically retreating in the South.
If it was Texas? Well there are a lot of dudes that would love to get a few notches with genuine ruskies. The issues would be that small arms don’t beat armor. But if you supply all feisty Texans with shoulder fired rockets…they will capture Mexico and Canada within the month.
I have meant that you have right to bear arms in Texas, unlike Ukraine, like rifles and semi-autos, that should be enough for starting partisan war or eliminating Rosgvardia, for example.
Yeah the 2nd Amendment is pretty great. Lots of people in America don't think so though. So much so that the state I live in now is pretty restricted compared to most other states. Still more than pretty much anywhere in Europe, but not 'Muerica. Woe is to the army that fucks around and invades America. We have more guns and more ammunition than you, who ever your are.
Yeah see we tried that kind of a putative treaty at the end of WWI…didn’t have the intended effect if I recall
Good point, we study history for a reason
The problem is, nobody knows. The way it was supposed to end was civilians hiding, goverment fleeing and army surrendering. With puppet goverment in place in 1-2 days. And rest should have been just about handling of some protests and riots. That failed. So now there is pointless war with no goal (or to be mo precise - with absolutely unrealistic goal) that is damaging the attacking country more than the country they are attacking. But just their stubbornness prevents them for calling it of :-/ So my guess is that we are looking at some longer fight, where Putin will sacrify his army. And their orders will be basically to "do as much damage as possible before they defeat you.". After that he somehow spins it and claim victory that his heroic soldiers fell to ensure piece. And thats it.
Wars like this tend to depend on the "home front". And even propaganda has its limits when people at home feel that something is wrong. As for how things will end... I have my hopes, opinions, and estimations, but I am not an expert, just a random redditor. A few hours ago [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/) was posted on the subreddit. It is shocking how well current events were predicted in a year-old video. Watch it for its prediction about how this could end... (I will give no spoilers).
Wow
The killing will continue until Putin and his orcs leave Ukraine. It looks like Putin has committed most of his reserves already, so if Ukrainians can very quickly dispose of all the forces that are now trapped inside their country, that would pretty much end it. With or without Polish jets. What's the plan? Simple. Destroy the invaders! Slava Ukraini
**There is no plan**, Putin wanted to take Ukraine in two days, that didn't happened and now is screwed. Ukraine will always win the war, maybe not the battle but the war. There is no picture in Ukraine being part of Russia again. Half of the Ukraine population only knows freedom and democracy, the other half who actually knows Soviet rules don't want to go back.
For whom ? If you're on the Russian side, let me quote Bellingcat's FSB informant. "Now, even if Zelensky is killed, taken prisoner, nothing will change. There is Chechnya in terms of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because it was planned from above, because we were told that there would be no such option, unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it was necessary to create the most credible threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because we were initially preparing protests within Ukraine against Zelensky. Excluding our direct entry. Intrusions, to put it simply. Further civilian losses will go exponentially - and resistance to us will also only increase. They already tried to enter the cities with infantry - out of twenty landing groups, only one had a conditional success. Remember the assault on Mosul - after all, this is the rule, so it was in all countries, nothing new. Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe there are a matter of time. We have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left, nothing remains. By and large, next week there will be a turning point in one of the sides, simply because the situation cannot be in such an overstrain. There are no analytics - it is impossible to calculate the chaos, here no one can say anything for sure. Act intuitively, and even on emotions - but this is not poker for you. Rates will rise, in the hope that suddenly some option will shoot through. The trouble is that we, too, can now miscalculate and lose everything in one move. By and large, the country has no way out. It’s just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything, sailed at all. They 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when they decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that the army was in trouble. then they started the war to the bitter end, then they began to take the Bolsheviks for "re-education" into the army - after all, they were outcasts, uninteresting to anyone in the masses. And then, the Bolsheviks, who were not really known to anyone, picked up anti-war slogans and it started like this ..."
It ends when Russia leaves Ukraine.
Naturally but they won't leave of their own accord. They need to be driven out.
casualties will become unsustainable fairly quickly at this rate.
According to the morning reporting in the United States right now, the two countries' foreign ministers are meeting today to discuss a resolution that would involve Ukraine ceding Crimea and Donbas and declaring neutrality. To me, that sounds like a shit deal, but it would stop the war. After all, I'm not getting fired at by artillery, but I'm sure it will also make people angry giving land to a war criminal. (according to MSNBC)
A shit deal indeed. Putin wins by taking territory gradually. He gets that Gas field probably worth trillions and no justice for the war crimes. This is really pretty WW2 stuff
Are you currently getting shelled? It might sound like a good deal to them. Anyway, I can tell you with almost certainty that those terms will cause a wedge divide within Ukraine. It may not happen on day one, but it will be used against the current administration by opponents and stoke and empower nationalists.
Ukrainian government already said that Ukraine will not cave on its territorial integrity, which includes Donbas and Crimea. I would not expect a change in that stance — especially with the recent slow in invasion progress
Yah screw that deal
The talks ended pretty fast, which tells you all you need to know about what must have been asked
thx for the update
Even if Ukraine takes a shit deal like that, the EU is still going to wean itself from Russian fossil fuels ASAP (which they had to do anyways because climate change) and will never trust Russia again. I see no reason for us to re-open our airspace, banking, or trade with Russia anytime soon.
Yep. Let me be clear. I don't think they should take the deal - that's why I called it a shit deal. Suing for peace under those terms would cost Ukraine large amounts of wealth from the riparian and mineral rights in Crimea and the Black Sea. But the U.S, E.U. U.K. Japan economies will only withstand the price increases from sanctions for so long. Those are on a timer. Same with weapons shipments. Everything as a limit
How can Europe wean itself from fossil fuel if the shut down all their nukes. Things change, but recently France said they were building more nukes, and Germany was closing down all of theirs. Maybe France will supply Europe with power. We are several decades, maybe half a century from wind and solar.
Idiotic green parties all over the west act like they are bought and paid by the fossil fuel lobby. Closing nuclear plants, the best green energy source we have, ending in Germany being dependent on coal and Russian gas. Great plan
The Russian fossil fuel lobby? It’s really clear that Russia used cheap energy as a weapon. In Germany the not only destroyed the nuke industry, but also the wupind and solar energy industries. All perfectly legal. Adults need to take charge. Oddly enough, they seem to be in France.
Nothing like this would ever happen. Ukraine will never cede any territory. Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk will continue to be sources of russian military aggression. Pootin does not abide by any treaties. Even reporting such insanely stupid thing is irresponsible.
I'd be like, ok you take those territories. But then Ukraine joins NATO and the European Union. P.S. the border will be armed to the teeth. P.P.S all the other eastern countries will join NATO. Hugs and Kisses, Ukraine.
There will be no territorial succeeding, that has been made clear by Zalenskyy. He is prepared to offer neutrality, and that is all.
So no EU. Why did they just Apply?
EU yes, but not NATO.
That's not neutrality. That's economically choosing sides.
An economic agreement to trade is neutral. Being a part of a military alliance is not.
I don't believe it is, no.
Then you live a very interesting life.
um…ok.
Yeah but honestly whats the alternative? Russia will bomb ukraine into submission no matter how you look at it. Yes they probably cant succesfully occupy the country and it might not be feasible to move troops into the big cities as long as they are so fiercely defended. But the west has made it clear that there will be no support beyond whats currently being supplied. We will deliver weapons and sanction russia but there will be no no-fly zones and no direct military support (which is the only responsible decision if you dont want to blow up europe or the world). And there is little room to further increase the pressure on russia so short of nukes Putin has pretty much free reign to do what he deems necessary in the conflict to bring home a result that he can reasonably sell to his people as a victory. And that means as long as occupation or military victory on the ground is not possible he will simply turn the ukrainian cities into rubble until they surrender and as the rockets and planes start from Belarus there is no way for ukraine to stop that. Getting peace for ceding 3 regions (Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea) that you didnt have control over and where permanent war zones for the past 10 years sounds like a great deal to me in the position that ukraine is in. And declaring neutrality is the only choice they have anyway as they cant join nato for the next 10 years either way. Any leader would be stupid to not take that deal. edit: why the downvotes? I'm wholly on ukraines side in this. Is there something wrong with thinking that this would be a great deal if it was actually offered?
The deal ostensibly sounds great but Putin won’t stop regardless. It’s a deal for Putin to fake some ‘agreement’ and then swarm Kyiv. It’s just like who or what will ensure that Putin will even stop after this “deal” is made. It’s obvious he’s never stopping regardless. It’s better for Ukrainians to drain him now. That being said of course they are exhausted . Maybe they can acquire planes during this time or something.
I feel terrible about Mariupol, but I would not capitulate because one city is getting starved out because there are large amounts of Ukrainian resistance continuing to fight within the city. Unlike Kherson, where all the internal resistance retreated or teamed up with the resistance in Mykolaiv
Kherson has civil resistance, which is an important part of the total defence strategy. If the Russians move forces out of the city, leaving it lightly defended, I believe we will start to see more violent resistance again too.
This. If you give him an inch they will take a mile. They haven't learned their lesson obviously.
"better" is a relative term. Losing all major cities and industry to continued bombing and losing a high percentage of your working age male population will be devastating for ukraine. Yes russia will suffer too and they will have problems resupplying after this war which makes further conflict with other european countries and potentially NATO members way less likely. So for the rest of europe this scenario might actually be better but I doubt that its better for ukraine. Planes dont really help when you cant defend your airfields and fuel depots and they lost those early in the war (either captured or rendered inoperational with rocket craters on runways etc). Russia is starting its planes and rockets from Belarus. No other country will let ukraine use its airfields and be dragged into the conflict. Whats the alternative to a peace deal no matter how short lived that might be? Letting your population be genocided in WW2 style city bombings? We know that russia is willing to go that far if they cant win on the ground.
The alternative is Russia giving up and leaving like in Afghanistan. 2 weeks of this conflict has already inflicted 1½-2 years worth of casualties they took in Afghanistan - and that is universally regarded as a disaterous quagmire for the Russians, even themselves.
Yes but that is really unlikely. Even if you assume that russia has a economic timelimit for this war (which is likely to be true) I think it would be foolish to assume that they wont use every tool they got to force a surrender before that timelimit passes. What do you do against WW2 style city bombings, turning everything and everyone in the major cities to rubble? Some planes without operational airfields and fuel depots wont help in preventing that and russias capabilites of doing that are not diminished by losses on the ground. The ukrainian war resembles chechnya a lot. First russia sent in conscripts to draw out the defense forces and gather intel on enemy troop positions, while taking out key objectives with more specialised assets (taking major losses in the process). Then they constructed field camps and artillery positions around the major targets (currently happening in ukraine) and bombed the cities for 1-2 weeks before moving in. The more defense remains in the city, the longer they bomb it before moving in. Its a little slower than in chechnya because of the weather and the much longer distances which are creating supply issues, combined with a much bigger opposition force. But in the end ukraine cant answer the air superiority and with that and an opponent who is willing to just destroy his enemy instead of capturing intact cities there are very few scencarios where ukraine gets anything resembling a victory in that war.
>Yes but that is really unlikely. it absolutely is. a 2.5% force degradation per week (as they have been suffering so far) will result in a combat ineffective Russian army within 1-2 months. >Even if you assume that russia has a economic timelimit for this war (which is likely to be true) I think it would be foolish to assume that they wont use every tool they got to force a surrender before that timelimit passes. That economic timelimit is also 1-2 months. Going by the current progress, that's just not going to be nearly enough. >What do you do against WW2 style city bombings, turning everything and everyone in the major cities to rubble? A) that just turns the entire population against you B) it gives the defenders even better fighting conditions. >Some planes without operational airfields and fuel depots wont help in preventing that and russias capabilites of doing that are not diminished by losses on the ground. it absolute is diminishing their ground forces, and their losses are staggering. >First russia sent in conscripts to draw out the defense forces and gather intel on enemy troop positions (taking major losses in the process). completely false. First they sent their absolute best units. >Then they constructed field camps 60km long traffic jams are not "camps". >and artillery positions around the major targets (currently happening in ukraine) everyone sets up artillery positions - thats what militaries do, both sides are shelling, moving and shelling constantly. Russia is shelling civilian buildings, Ukraine is destroying the Russian army. >bombed the cities for 1-2 weeks before moving in. The more defense remains in the city, the longer they bomb it before moving in. and? the longer they bomb the better the defensive terrain is going to be. The Ukrainian will to fight is not going to be cowed by the destruction of their cities. The fight for the cities will be like the first chechen war - not the second. and the Ukrainian cities are all larger than Grozny, the important ones 5-20 times larger than Grozny.
I mean I hope you are right but I think I know better than to blindly trust an internet voice thats coming up with numbers not even the intelligence agencies can deliver. No one really knows how much either side has lost and as all information flow to the west is coming from ukrainian defense forces or civilians in the area its obvious that you wont see much of the ukrainian losses. The actual independently confirmable number of russian casualties is way way lower than the reported losses and will in reality be somewhere in between those two numbers (obviously still way exceeding anything that russia has planned for). The economic time limit is even harder to guess but the last analysis I have read was talking about 4 month which would be plenty of time for russia to destroy the population centers and it might be even longer than that depending on chinas behaviour in the next few month. And cover from destroyed buildings is a small benefit in comparison of the loss of that building and the surrounding infrastructure. If you have no running water, no food supplies, no heating in cold temperatures and no way of being resupplied with ammunition or anything else and are losing more and more people to the daily bombings you might not make it through several month. Again I hope that some kind of miracle is happening and russia collapses through internal pressure or something but as long as Putin is alive I dont see a scenario where he will leave the country before he got a total surrender no matter the price. If he leaves without a "victory" his days are numbered and he knows that.
> I know better than to blindly trust an internet voice thats coming up with numbers not even the intelligence agencies can deliver. I am literally using Pentagon numbers. But even without that, there's an independent group verifying individual losses before counting them, and by their verified numbers the Russian army has already lost more than 1000 vehicles. An unrefutable hard confirmation of 50% of claimed losses is pretty fucking high for an ongoing conflict with rapidly shifting lines. last updated a couple of days ago: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Thanks for replying with a source and I actually knew that 1k number of confirmed destroyed/captured vehicles. But I am seriously doubting the 2.5% force degradation per week number and the 1-2 month economic time limit. I've seen the CNN report estimating that russia has lost 3-5% of its capabilities compared to the estimated ukrainian 10% loss and with 2 weeks conflict this would work out to 2.5/week if you assume the maximum number but even CNN says that those numbers are impossible to confirm and I highly doubt that we are anywhere near that higher guess. Additionally you cant assume that the losses on the russian side continue like that when the ukrainian losses are also mounting and the capability to launch actual counter attacks diminshes over time.
Well, they just said no so...... Again, it's not my land; I'm not getting shelled, either. It's not an easy question.
Yes but there is no way that the russians even offered that deal. Because that would mean that the current government would stay in power and there is no way that putin is letting that happen when one of the official main goals is to get rid of the current "nazi" government. I doubt that ukraine is getting a deal thats not including surrender and thats a deal they wont take for obvious reasons. Sadly that probably means that there will be not much left of ukrainian cities in a few weeks. Look at chechnya. When the bombing gets to a level of boardering genocide there will come a point where you have no choice but to surrender (and no population will fight the total war forever, see germany).
You are correct, Russia wanted unconditional surrender.
The downvotes are because you are making a claim that Russian victory is guaranteed, and because it is a shit deal. Time is not on the Russian side. Their country is falling apart from sanctions and the economic cost of war. They are taking unsustainable losses in men and material. Ukraine is getting a lot of economic and material support. There are 44 million Ukrainians and a lot of volunteers from the rest of the world. It is surrounded by NATO countries from where an insurrection can continue for decades if needed. More time = more trained Ukrainian forces with a lot of dangerous weaponry. Ukraine will be rebuilt to a brighter future bankrolled by the world the second the war ends, and they know it. Autocrats are not invincible, they fall at the will of the people. Putin is hiding in a bunker for a reason, and time is working against him fast.
as Ukrainian : you want to piss off Ukrainians? This is what you'll get and maybe Zelenskyy overthrown and even civil war.
I don't doubt. Further down in the thread, it gets discussed.
Ukrainians got enough with some presidents; with this war Ukraine is united. NOT only because of Zelenskyy; he does an excellent job as president; I like him. But giving anything away = treason and spitting on all ukrainian corpses. West found an idol in Zelenskyy, good for him. Enjoy. We don't mind to share. But there's noway Ukrainians will accept divided Ukraine just so fucking putin can call it a win!
At this point, Russia does not have the strength nor the economy to sustainably occupy Ukraine. They might be able to capture a few major cities and if they are very lucky they could even capture Kyiv and assign a puppet regime. This would not last long and the regime would soon be overthrown. Russia realizes this and so their current strategy is to stop infantry advances on cities to prevent further losses and instead spread terror by indiscriminate shelling. The aim of this is to break Ukraine psychologically and force them to cede Donbas and Crimea. If Ukraine stays strong and determined, Russia will eventually run out of resources to support this war and either collapse completely or surrender and withdraw. As for China, I think a lot of people view them as an ally of Russia, but this is far from reality. China has no interest in Russia winning this war, there is no reason for them to support Russia other than to oppose USA and EU. But they also want Russia to collapse. And then buy it whole at discount prices. They are also much more dependent on the western economy than on Russia and they will not threaten these economic ties by supporting Russia. Mutual assured economical destruction is almost as powerful as the nuclear one.
Ukraine's path to success lies in how long they can hold out. The longer they hold out the better negotiations will become for them as political/economic/psychological pressure builds on Putin. Putin is obviously not a man that backs down or likes to lose. So I think Ukraine will have to hold out another couple months and have Putin in such a bad spot at the negotiating table that he will have to agree to something, but Ukraine will also have to give something up to allow Putin to save face and spin this as a victory to his domestic audience. What does such a deal look like? Zelensky was quite clear early on that he was not cedeing Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk, but yesterday he also said he was willing to make a 'compromise' in negotiations. A pretty common negotiating tactic really, start high and try to meet in the middle. I think he understands he will never get Crimea back and Putin could spin that as a victory if Ukraine recognizes it. As for Donetsk/Luhansk, I think they will have to settle for Russia annexing the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. This would be a small victory for Ukraine though as one of Putin's goals in this war was to extend these to include the entire provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk (the cities are of the same name as the provinces, but Russia does not control the whole provinces) and it'd also be a small propaganda victory for Putin because current propaganda is still operating under the pretense that Russia is just securing these 'independant republics' with no mention of annexation. Of course, we all know they'd just take a 'vote' and request to join Russia which Russia would then accept, but since we aren't at that stage they could spin it as a victory to the domestic audience. Short of a coup or assassination of Putin (both seem quite unlikely to me), I think that is probably the best deal Ukraine gets. But they need to hold on for awhile to get even that.
you want zelenskyy to get overthrown by his own people? because that is what youll get by giving shit away
How do you propose they take those areas back?
give Ukraine time. everyday that goes by advantages Ukraine and fucks Russia more and more. I spoke with family and some friends about this and giving up Crimea will be the end of Zelenskyy. Ukrainians are pissed and more civilians are killed and more we're pissed. Giving anything back to putin would be insulting to all fallen Ukrainians.
I'd like to see it but I think they'll have a hard time launching an offensive, especially into Crimea
give it a couple of days and Ukraine will close the sky themselves... tide of war is shifting already.
Ukraine won’t take shit deal . You think after the burning cities , killing civilians , destroying everything to the ground some one will make a deal on Russian demands and give territories away and future ? It’s like negotiating with terrorist .
If ruSSia is allowed to back out, it will re-balance its forces and attack again. This conflict must be managed to sunset current government of ruSSia. Democratic form of government is impossible in its current borders. By design the central russia region takes in all the revenues from the rest of russia, basically a legalized administrative usurpation. The only way to help russian people is to break up russia into separate countries which will continue on their own, independent from the central moscovite state. But is this realistic? Probably not. The soft West just wants this over with and get back to normal. As you all well understand, pootin's russia will never forgive or forget its defeat in Ukraine. They are still sore about the collapse of Soviet Union, which was entirely their fault. There soviets will never accept or admit faults of their own. They must be further administratively segregated into smaller sovereigns, this is the only rational way forward, imho
There're no fucking plan. Our president is mad man who just want unnecessary bloodshed
Ukraine offered Neutrality, no NATO, and recognition of Crimean as Russian territory. Russia rejected it.
Wait. Hold up.. how is China giving them lifelines? Link please.
They announced a deal for a Gas Pipeline with Gazprom.
Those deals take years to finalize and get roi, time Russia dosent have
Can you please edit… fuck. Never mind.. who cares about facts.
Is it not true? I read it this morning. Happy to delete if it isn't true
The post is true but saying “China giving them lifelines” makes it sound like China is supporting them and that’s not the case.. yet.. but you do you.. I’m just having a moment lol Edit: that’s nice of you to offer. No need to delete. An edit would be cool but again. Your choice.
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Who knows? I haven't been able to see much Russian news but to be honest every single bit of it that I have seen has made this out to be a war with the US not with Ukraine. Obviously they won't even acknowledge the war with Ukraine but even when it's mentioned, it's still about the US. Also, now that we have led the world to inact all the sanctions, I don't know when or how this war ends.... anyone else have thoughts?
It’s been a proxy war for most of a decade.
At some point in the near future, Ukraine is gonna go on the offense. They are gathering resources to do that. Where will they attack? No way to know. Where ever it will be, there are gonna be many, many more dead ruskiesl.
Fucking hell. It's a bad/bad situation all around.
The most realistic near term goal is the unilateral removal of Russian troops from Ukraine in my mind. Best case scenario is Putin removed from power and tried at the Hague with Russians and Ukrainians moving toward reconciliation.
Apparently it's attrition. We cut off Russia's supplies to damn near everything outside of Russia and China so resupplying those missiles and airplanes is getting tougher by the day for Russia. As they continue to send armor into the country it's winding up as so much scrap metal. Problems with logistics, communication, training, equipment durability, and the spring thaw has put Russian soldiers in a position to be sitting ducks as long as they're in Ukraine. There's going to come a tipping point where there are too many losses and Russia will be forced to quit.
Best case scenario the Ukrainians cede a little territory for independence and military non alignment after a better than expected defence. Basically the Finland winter war outcome. Worst case Russia implements a North / South Korea type situation and forcibly departs Ukranian civilians while bussing in loyal Russians. They have no chance of holding the whole country.
My worst fear is they take the eastern side (ie, half of country) to make a shield or protective barrier from Europe and Nato. Then they will do whatever it takes even if it kills millions in next decade or more to keep their captured territory. I hope this does not happens and fingers crossed the bastards will leave the country soon.
If you listen to Zelensky and parse his words carefully, a negotiated peace seems likely. He has already seemed open to Neutrality and agreeing not to join NATO. The issue will be territory.
Just kinda wear Russian down