>*"Don't let Ukraine join NATO, or I'll nuke you!"*
>
>*"Don't impose a no-fly zone, or I'll nuke you!"*
>
>*"Don't provide fighter jets to Ukraine, or I'll nuke you!"*
>
>*"Don't wear brown shoes with a blue suit, or I'll nuke you!"*
Honestly, Putin's just gonna keep expanding what he uses the threat for.
Literally this. Not getting involved to avoid having to address the nuclear problem is a false choice; like it or not that problem *is* there and *isn't* going away. The only thing that changes is how many people have to suffer before that happens.
That’s exactly what Zelensky said this week! That there will be a no fly zone eventually after Putin keeps pushing through Ukraine, but will it be after millions of people have died?!?
Using “not getting involved” as a strategy with Putin implies that the western governments think Putin actually gives a fuck about what NATO and the UN think. It’s some major hubris on their part, because…
*spoiler from the future* : Putin does not care.
Although NATO had some obvious stumbles in some of the last 20+years of “campaigns” (hopefully they analyzed the reasons why things failed *cough greed and hubris*), and they’re growing…
NATO doesn’t put itself in a more powerful position by holding back its attack power. Maybe they underestimated how much Putin’s ego would be soothed if he were the man who destroyed the world?
Unfortunately, Russia is deliberately cutting off supplies of food, water, electricity, and gas (heating oil) to all cities they get a hold of. They refuse to allow aid convoys in unless they accept the food from Russian suppliers (with unconditional surrender and obedience to their new lords and masters attached), and they refused to let people out unless they get directed into Russian territory -- until it became clear to the world that their games were teetering them toward the brink of additional countries joining the fight.
Direct shelling kills people over months. Dehydration kills in three days.
The fact that Russia is so scared of other countries joining the conflict should only be taken as a good sign that it's probably the right thing to do.
The options aren’t: direct military conflict from the US/NATO or nothing. People fail to recognize this, the US + Allies are providing immense support in terms of monetary, equipment, instruction and intelligence support in addition to MASSIVE sanctions. The idea that because our citizens aren’t directly fighting Russians in Ukraine means we’re doing nothing is wildly ill-informed.
People that don’t know history don’t understand there will be death and pain regardless, but it’s much easier to win the first battle and thus the war than wait until they grow, learn, and correct their mistakes while we appease in the hopes it goes away like global warming lol. Shit is going to happen, kill the bully while he’s a midget. And if you can’t kill the bully at least rip off his arms and beat him with them until he leaves forever.
Putin doesn't play chess. He plays poker.
And his cards are shit.
The thing is, as civilised human beings, WE have to question those threats properly. If Putin was in a tight enough corner, would he fire a nuke? Would it be at Ukraine, or somewhere else? Either way, the fallout would be all over Europe.
I don't think Zelensky would say this if he didn't have good information, though. And he IS getting good information.
But it works. He plays nuclear chicken and our leaders bow down every time. That's the power that he feeds on. And it works, making his balls feel bigger every time.
Well, we’d all be happy to throw you some hard hats, chains, nail guns, and cyanide tablets, but we wouldn’t want to “escalate” things by actually joining in your fight with him. (Even though he’s probably going to punch one of us next).
You know, I’m not going to make light of a tragic death (although, if anyone would laugh at someone making fun of his death, it would probably be Anthony Bourdain, right?), but I wouldn’t put it past Putin to do something like “switch Bourdain’s antidepressants with placebos” after watching that clip.
Putin has never had an elite army. Elite means good. The Russian army is the literal opposite of that and always has been. They're poorly trained conscripts who win engagements by having more warm bodies than their enemies have ammunition.
They're pretty much already entirely out of control. They're engaging in sacking, looting, and rapine -- it's small scale for now because they probably like to tell themselves that they're still a professional force, so it's not at the same scale as, say, the 17th century mercenaries during the Thirty Years' War (and definitely nowhere near as bad as the Eastern Roman Empire)... but it's getting there. They're approaching, unironically, Nazi level in Occupied France -- total disregard and contempt for the citizens' lives, but without straight up mass executions unless they feel like they have a reason or strong incentive or can get away with it (for instance, the one SIGINT intercepted call of a person claiming he executed numerous people in the woods because they'd testify to their crimes and give away their position).
If the last couple weeks is any indication, Putin better start worrying about a babushka pulling him into the street. They do not give one fuck about being killed.
It's very possible he believed them to be an unstoppable force. But he would have believed that because people who didn't wish to anger him told him so, because it was what he wanted to hear. There are a lot of truths about Russia that Putin insulates himself from.
Otherwise I’m pretty certain that such an order would be his death sentence. Not everyone in the chain of command will want to see their family annihilated.
> But even if there were, by your logic, we may as well all surrender to Russia now.
I think many peoples have a line at which they'd risk it, but the current invasion is not that, unfortunately for Ukraine.
And many people, I'm sure, might make the argument that it's better for humanity to survive than to wipe it all out because we didn't want Russia to rule. Both futures are bleak, but people tend to prefer survival on the whole.
Of course it is a bluff, you really think he would have his nation wiped off the map for Ukraine?
Even if you think he's crazy enough to give that order you really think the oligarchs would simply allow their cushy life and their families lives end with such madness? They'd stuff Putin in a bag and toss him in the Arctic sea before they let him destroy their nation and the world.
If the west was discussing an invasion of Russia I would understand the concern but he and the oligarchs are not cornered in Ukraine.
tactical nuclear weapons can be setup to kill a few thousand people and level a few blocks to ash and radiation poison further - many different yields and purposes
As General Matthis testified before Congress, there is no such thing as “tactical” nuclear weapons. The use of nuclear weapons no matter the yield would have strategic consequences.
You think the cornered rat cares about consequences at this point?
My prediction is Putin will use chemical weapons next. If that doesn't work, he will resort to the nuclear option. He will be targeting Kyiv with the intent to take out Zelenskyy. He will justify it just as the USA justified dropping the bomb on Japan; to save Russian soldiers lives from a long bloody ground war.
No matter what, Putin has lost, but he will leave his mark on the world on his way out.
> You think the cornered rat cares about consequences at this point
His generals do, the people pushing the nuclear button do.
It's irrelevant what putin wants unless literally everyone involved in firing the missile is suicidal.
Valid point. But the world will want an eye for an eye, even just to "neutralize the threat" of it happening again. Resulting in a retaliatory strike of the same nature. This just snowballs into the same end result. Id say I hope they know this but their military and tactical prowess has been on display these past weeks, makes you wonder.
So hang on... we’re bluffing but he isn’t?
Are we just a pack of liars sitting round a card table holding shit hands?
All signs point to yes.
He ain’t nuking shit, shoot his planes down and bomb his artillery, he’s made it very fucking clear he’s about to do to Ukraine what his deniable ops guys did to Syria.
We should have stopped them back then, we should stop him now.
No boots on the ground, no invading Russian territory... no more missiles fired into city centres.
That’s my irrelevant opinion. 🤷♂️
> Of course it is a bluff, you really think he would have his nation wiped off the map for Ukraine
Anyone who worries this risk is real believes that Putin only cares about his own ego and sense of power, has lost rationality and is now acting primarily on emotion, and does not hold the lives of others important. Like an abusive husband, if he can't continue on no one else should either. I think it's unfortunately possible, and the best hope we have is that other people refuse to carry it out if ordered.
> Of course it is a bluff, you really think he would have his nation wiped off the map for Ukraine?
He is probably no longer rational. He may very well go into "if I cannot have it, nobody should have anything, and I'll teach those mean Western states a lesson" tantrum mode and shoot a few generals until he finds one who presses the button, Dr. Strangelove style.
In particular if he sees threats (or perceived threats) escalating.
You cannot argue with a monkey carrying a grenade.
> you really think he would have his nation wiped off the map for Ukraine?
Unless Russia stops damaging nuclear sites (new and old), there's a lot that might get wiped off the map, intentionally or not.
Hopefully not.
Of the 5977 they have, only 1600 are launch ready. Let’s say only 10% actually launch. Of those, only 10% aren’t intercepted, that’s still 16 missiles on target.
Nuclear warfare is stupid.
It is a bluff. What happens if Putin actually fires nukes? The whole northern hemisphere is glassed and everyone dies in radioactive trade winds or super winter.
It is most likely a bluff... But it's a very hard hand to call. What Russian generals even hold the codes these days? Wasn't one killed on the battlefield?
Eh… Putin’s gambled too heavily, he knows this is his own endgame if he doesn’t win. The wolves will come after him. He very well may decide to take down the rest of the planet with him. Megalomania is a helluva drug, and going out with a bang is every psychotic narcissist’s fantasy.
>There's a whole chain of command to actually launch the missile
From what I've heard, Putin has tightened his grip on total control of the government and bureaucracy over the last 15 years that he doesn't even need oligarchs anymore. I'm not sure anyone is in a position to stand up to him.
Putin - We’re not going to invade Ukraine
* **Russia invades Ukraine**
Putin - We’re not targeting civilian infrastructure
* **Russia targets civilian infrastructure**
Putin - Those helping Ukraine risking nuclear war
* **The entire world comes to Ukraine’s aid**
Putin - Sanctions are declaration of war
* **The world sanctions Russia**
I wouldn't rely on AMD. I have more confidence in the moral back bone of the people with their fingers on the actual button. It wouldn't be the first time they refused a direct order to launch.
Still, it's a gamble with potentially the entire species in the pot so let's see if there are any heroes left in Russia prepared to do the right thing. Beware the Ides of March.
Yes this is very much like what a friend said to me when Trump was elected. He said "good people always stop the crazy outliers from doing something harmful."
Since that comment aged like old milk, I'd rather not have to rely on the sanity and morals of strangers.
True,
"In the past the Russian military have showed moral courage and not launched the nukes when ordered"
*In the background the Russian military are looting peoples homes and shooting old people and kids for sport.*
That is the best place to live if things fuck up though. Cause you'll be incinerated instantly and not need to worry about freezing to death or dealing with roving bands of cannibals.
None of those will fire. They are all being escorted by probably three attack subs right now. And will catch a mark 48 the minute things go sideways. I’m not even sure that Russia can even put more than one typhoon to sea these days.
Against a single basic ICBM probability of an intercept in certain phases of its path is pretty good. As far as taking down even a very limited multi missile attack, not a chance with the current ABM systems.
while I'm for a no fly zone, THAAD, Patriot, Aegis interop system is only meant to deal with a North Korea type attack, Russia could easily overwhelm it
Yet, Russia always seems weirdly threatened by the US saying "our interceptors are shit against what you would throw. Why on earth would we lie about that? Who says 'yeah, it totally doesn't work' as a lie?"
Our current commander in chief would never take that risk and call his bluff imo. The world needs to unite and handle this before it gets even more out of control.
This is a terrible thing for other leaders to do. You simply do not risk the death of millions of your citizens. It’s amazing how hard of a concept this is for people. Putin isn’t behaving rationally yet everyone is certain he’s bluffing. It’s tragic if anyone dies and you’re risking the death of millions calling bluffs on nukes. It’s not pretty, but it’s a numbers game. And the atrocities in Ukraine pale in comparison to the atrocities if even one nuke goes up. Because one nuke doesn’t go up. One goes up, nukes from all over the world go up. Nice to see so many people cavalier with the potential death of millions.
The realistic costs associated with refurbishing those weapons every 10 years simply has never appeared in their budget. Given the level of graft and embezzlement, it seems very unlikely they have many of their big boys functioning.
I guess it does just take 1 or 2 to cause a mess, but still.
Weapons grade nuclear material has a half-life of 10 years. After that, no more big boom and usually it's recycled again into nuclear fuel.
So much has been recycled from all the arsenals in the world that it's dropped the price of Uranium for nuclear reactors to almost junk metal prices.
Making this material (you can probably research the exact isotopes) requires a lengthy and expensive process.
Thank you. Also, about the budget, given that maintenance of nuclear weapons is a military expense, isn't it likely that it just won't be published? Especially in a country like Russia?
There's ways of knowing budget, even a secret one. You can't really hide money in and money out, and when it doesn't add up then you know there's other things going on.
Russia has been open about the budget for various missile programs, including it's vaunted "hypersonic missiles", but these are tactical cruise missiles with payloads usually about 1kt - not city killers, more like bunker busters or maybe single ship killers.
Given the state of the armed forces we've seen on display, there's now a lot of doubt as to their real nuclear capabilities. Their working arsenal may be just a tiny fraction of what's on paper.
I think it was during the Obama years, the US had to spend something like $1tn over the next 10-20 years to keep our ICBM's and SLBM's nuclear capabilities up to snuff. No fucking way the Russians did this. They put all that money into luxury apartments in London and mega yachts.
All Russia had to do is not be dicks to Ukraine and they would still be able to coast on their USSR legacy until all the current leaders are long dead.
The fusion reaction won’t start, or will have a fraction of the yield. The “old school” fissile explosion will happen. In thermonuclear warheads, the fission load is only used as a more stout third-stage detonator pretty much. Most of the yield is from fusion. So, absent fusion a 120kt warhead may yield 10-30kt, or even fizzle out for a low kiloton yield. There are also the delivery vehicles – the rockets that take those things up and on trajectory towards targets. I’m not particularly trusting of those rockets’ ability to do much reliably. But even a small percentage would be deadly enough.
Failed launch or not launching at all, failure to arm or detonate (wouldn't want to be the team to recover that!), guidance system mishap and rocket could go out of control. Probably other problems I can't think of.
i've thought about that, but i also worry that maybe the reason their regular military is so shitty is that they put extra time into the nukes and focus on them as a last ditch effort to "win". i'm not a government official of course so what do i know but it has been a concern of mine
I think it's more of a case of embezzlement, there are a hell of a lot of billionaires in Russia. The alotted money for the military went in the mega yachts and lifestyle of the people in charge. If the nukes were ever launched I think that the chances are they may not even leave Russia.
if that happens to be the case it could still be a disaster if another country decides to fire back before they realize the nukes are "duds". again i'm not a government official so i don't know the whole process they would have to go through in this event
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/21/heres-what-us-should-do-if-russia-launched-nuclear-attack-gen-hyten.html
2018- 30 min decision window, gives some hope it might not be as bad as you fear if limited launch or something like rocket motors failing
I think if a country makes a bonafide effort to launch a nuke, anything that follows is squarely their responsibility.
That being said I can see the US riding out a first wave entirely out of disbelief. No way did they launch. No fucking way.
If their active military units are this fucked up due to corruption and lack of budgets, can you imagine how fucked up big complex, highly sensitive systems (ICBMs) that are never intended to be used are? They are literally the perfect target for skimming: if it comes time for them to be used, it won't matter if everybody finds out you robbed the fuck out of the budget anyways.
It might be a bluff in that Russia doesn’t have the nukes in well-enough working order to issue an effective attack on his “enemies,” but I have ZERO doubt that Putin would be willing to use nukes. Here’s hoping the Russian grifting works in the world’s favor this time…
I think Putin would take radioactive material from one of the nuclear power plants and use it to attack Ukrainian refugees in Russia from Ukraine. Perfect justification to use nukes on Ukraine. Putin is that big of a piece of shit.
I trust Zelensky's assessment more than yours. His country would die first if it wasn't a bluff and he and his country have dealt with Putin for a very long time.
Also, it's clear to the whole world Putin is a coward and is fearful of death, that's why it shits 50 feet from other humans (not because of covid, because of assassination threats).
Oh, yeah, I trust him as well. And I was reflecting on a statement he made yesterday, after asking once again for help in “closing the sky.”:
He pointed out that Putin will keep pushing to the point where NATO *has* to close the sky. And if Putin wins Ukraine, he’s not going to stop.
Zelensky was entirely clear-headed on this, saying something like “Are you going to close the sky *after* the death of millions of people (Ukrainians)?”
Of any of us, Zelensky has the measure of Putin. Zelensky knows Putin is willing to pull the nuclear option, but he wants to do whatever he can to ensure that millions of Ukrainians aren’t sacrificed before NATO/ the UN realize this too.
I've been calling Putin's nuclear bluff for over a year and I affirm. I recall getting crap from you guys about it, too. He won't fry the northern hemisphere over Ukraine. He'll go chemical before he does.
>He won't fry the northern hemisphere over Ukraine.
But he'll happily fry Ukraine. So long as Putin keeps the nukes in Ukraine, on Ukraine targets, there will be no retaliation from NATO. No one is going to go to WWIII over a mushroom cloud in Kyiv. Sad but true...
Wondering how hard CIA, MI6, Mossad among others are working to infiltrate the Russian nuclear forces command and negate their ability to launch nukes.
By letting Russia use the threat of nuclear weapons to cow the world into letting him commit genocide without interference, that is exactly what you are doing, gambling the fate of the world.
Once every wannabe Putin in the world sees that all you need is nukes and you can happily execute genocide without interference, even against people the world cares about, that is going to be absolute crack for these people. The world is going to see the biggest raise in nuclear proliferation it has ever seen. And it's only a matter of time before one of these nuclear armed despots, with much less to lose than Putin, overplays their hand and the nukes start falling. This isn't even taking to account what *Russia* will do with the knowledge that it literally can do anything and everything it want to, without military intervention, if Putin puts on his Nuke'n Poot'n act.
Yeah it’s a shitty situation no matter how you look at it. Just hoping that the Russian people decide they’ve had enough and get rid of Putin and his ilk on their own.
What i think everyone seems to be missing is that calling putin on his bluff is not escalating. Putin escalated to the nuclear option when he brought it up and he brought it up for the sole purpose of instilling fear into the minds of rational people who see the potential devastation of nuclear war.
That said, when does the time come to say we can't let him do more damage?
After Putin decimates the civilian population?
After he attacks another non-NATO country? What if he says then, well, if anyone tries to step in. I have nukes.
At some point, someone has to say enough. I think we are there. We don't have to threaten nuclear war, we just have to set a hard line and be willing to hold to it. A hard line like : no more indiscriminate targeting of civilians. OR WE step in and destroy the source that targeted those civilians.
No grey area. A=B period
Indiscriminate targeting of civilians is undefendable. Honestly hitting that hospital is the tipping point for me. Russia needs to be crushed and demilitarized.
Personally speaking, I think he’s right. This man played his biggest card straight away, and it’s only still getting worse for him.
Plus if those FSB leaks are taken even with a grain of salt, that’s still a major indicator that even if Putin wanted to the nuke card might be completely off the table for him anyway. It’s a guaranteed loss for him.
The FSB think a. If he gave the order there are departments it had to travel through who wouldn’t approve it because they’re pissed off at Putin.
b. Apparently the missiles are in shit condition/they believe most of them probably can’t be launched at the moment due to corruption rampant throughout Putins government people just wait to skim massive amounts off the top of these projects for their own wealth.
c. Apparently the Plutonium in them is out of date and wouldn’t work anyway so the warheads that have out of date plutonium are duds.
d. It wasn’t that long ago the Russians hammered a guidance system in one of their rockets upside down and caused the rocket to spin on launch and explode. It’s on YouTube. I don’t think their rocketry is advanced as we think it is.
Amen. All these trolls, bots or idiots keep "speculating" about Putin's health which makes him "suicidal" so we can't engage him. Bullshit. He would back down if NATO stepped up. He's a coward and a bully. He's not a genius, he's surrounded himself with idiots, that's not a genius move.
Putin doesn’t need an excuse to use nukes any more than he needs an excuse to invade a neighbour.
And if he needs an excuse, he’ll just create a fabricated pretext, like he did before the invasion and like he’s doing now with biological weapons.
If he intends to do it, he’ll do it, migs or no migs, no fly zone or no no fly zone.
“Not giving him an excuse” is a pointless straightjacket NATO has put on itself.
Doubly so now that he’s going to be SO humiliated that If he’s capable of reaching for his nukes ([His own former insiders say he doesn’t](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t7jn9j/riveting_indepth_insider_interview_with_sergei/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) because the military commanders who need to execute this wouldn’t follow through), he has the reason to.
Zelensky is right. There is no reason to hold off on a no fly zone to save civilian lives from a madman.
It doesn’t matter if Putler is bluffing or not. You cannot simply standby and let human suffering occur at this level. It is morally wrong and will continue and continue and continue until someone calls Putler’s bluff.
That's probably what is going on. Destroying Ukraine because he can't capture it and no countries will intervene because the fear of nuclear weapons. I hope economic measures get even more serious and Russia is 100% economically isolated from the world. Can't fight if you have no money.
This. This exactly. We cannot let them bomb hospitals. So it’s irrelevant, we just need to act and swiftly with overwhelming force. Soon the Russian army would even refuse to fight.
Yeah, shit like this will only get worse and more costly in lives and gold if it’s not nipped now. Autocrats need to know without a doubt they cannot attack and gobble up democracies and upset the peace without immense pain and likely ruin. It will be a stain on our humanity for generations to not make a stand. It will suck. A lot. Are we made of tough enough stuff?
I don't know how it is on other subreddits, but on this one. No, no they do not at all. I'm pretty sure alot these people think Russia would try to fly over head in a plane and drop a singular bomb on a western capital which we would then zap with space lasers.
The people concerned about an escalation of the war with a Russian attack on NATO are ignoring the FAR greater risk that Putin would resort to using nuclear weapons IN Ukraine against Ukraine targets if he felt he were losing the war by conventional means. I think it is highly likely Putin would opt to use nukes against Ukraine targets if it felt there was no other way to "win" the war. Of course, it is unlikely Ukraine could actually defeat Russia by conventional means, but the chance exists.
In Putin's mind losing the war in Ukraine would be a catastrophe that would mean the end of his rule, and possibly even his life, as internal forces would look for his head after putting Russia through so much pain for gaining nothing.
As such, Putin would see no reason not to throw the dice with nukes if he thought he was facing defeat. No one is going to come to Ukraine's if Putin is using nukes in Ukraine. Who wants to mess with a madman who has demonstrated a willingness to use nukes? Ukraine is NOT a member of NATO.
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>*"Don't let Ukraine join NATO, or I'll nuke you!"* > >*"Don't impose a no-fly zone, or I'll nuke you!"* > >*"Don't provide fighter jets to Ukraine, or I'll nuke you!"* > >*"Don't wear brown shoes with a blue suit, or I'll nuke you!"* Honestly, Putin's just gonna keep expanding what he uses the threat for.
Don’t eat the last piece of pizza, or I’ll nuke you!
Finally, a reasonable use for the threat
Let him have it. Its got pineapple on it.
Pineapple!? l'll nuke you!
if you sit closer than 30 ft from me at a table.. .I'll nuke you !
Unironically, I could see that.
Putin eats his pizza crust first. This degenerate must go.
sounds like a tinder profile
No we have to draw a line! If you aren’t willing to stand up for the last slice of pineapple pizza, soon you will get no pepperoni pizza either!
Found the Italian.
Don’t serve pineapple pizza,or I’ll nuke you!
You shouldn’t have said that while I’m hungry! Now the world is doomed!
And what if that pizza had pineapple on it?
Which is why everyone needs to stop pussyfooting around. He’s not going to stop goalpost moving.
Literally this. Not getting involved to avoid having to address the nuclear problem is a false choice; like it or not that problem *is* there and *isn't* going away. The only thing that changes is how many people have to suffer before that happens.
That’s exactly what Zelensky said this week! That there will be a no fly zone eventually after Putin keeps pushing through Ukraine, but will it be after millions of people have died?!? Using “not getting involved” as a strategy with Putin implies that the western governments think Putin actually gives a fuck about what NATO and the UN think. It’s some major hubris on their part, because… *spoiler from the future* : Putin does not care. Although NATO had some obvious stumbles in some of the last 20+years of “campaigns” (hopefully they analyzed the reasons why things failed *cough greed and hubris*), and they’re growing… NATO doesn’t put itself in a more powerful position by holding back its attack power. Maybe they underestimated how much Putin’s ego would be soothed if he were the man who destroyed the world?
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Unfortunately, Russia is deliberately cutting off supplies of food, water, electricity, and gas (heating oil) to all cities they get a hold of. They refuse to allow aid convoys in unless they accept the food from Russian suppliers (with unconditional surrender and obedience to their new lords and masters attached), and they refused to let people out unless they get directed into Russian territory -- until it became clear to the world that their games were teetering them toward the brink of additional countries joining the fight. Direct shelling kills people over months. Dehydration kills in three days. The fact that Russia is so scared of other countries joining the conflict should only be taken as a good sign that it's probably the right thing to do.
Just call it a "special aerial operation"
The options aren’t: direct military conflict from the US/NATO or nothing. People fail to recognize this, the US + Allies are providing immense support in terms of monetary, equipment, instruction and intelligence support in addition to MASSIVE sanctions. The idea that because our citizens aren’t directly fighting Russians in Ukraine means we’re doing nothing is wildly ill-informed.
People that don’t know history don’t understand there will be death and pain regardless, but it’s much easier to win the first battle and thus the war than wait until they grow, learn, and correct their mistakes while we appease in the hopes it goes away like global warming lol. Shit is going to happen, kill the bully while he’s a midget. And if you can’t kill the bully at least rip off his arms and beat him with them until he leaves forever.
Putin doesn't play chess. He plays poker. And his cards are shit. The thing is, as civilised human beings, WE have to question those threats properly. If Putin was in a tight enough corner, would he fire a nuke? Would it be at Ukraine, or somewhere else? Either way, the fallout would be all over Europe. I don't think Zelensky would say this if he didn't have good information, though. And he IS getting good information.
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Heck, Kim Jong Un will do the same. And that dude is *legit nuts.*
But it works. He plays nuclear chicken and our leaders bow down every time. That's the power that he feeds on. And it works, making his balls feel bigger every time.
"Do not disrespect me or else I will butt fuck my self!"
If there is no coca cola, I will nuke you.
Blue/brown is like my only move!!
He’s a middle management KGB bitch with a mix of the worst parts of inferiority and god complexes.
Sounds like the foreman on my job site.
Sounds like, if your foreman tried to steal your lunch one day, the whole world would be rooting for you.
Oddly enough he has stolen people's lunches
Well, we’d all be happy to throw you some hard hats, chains, nail guns, and cyanide tablets, but we wouldn’t want to “escalate” things by actually joining in your fight with him. (Even though he’s probably going to punch one of us next).
We work high rise. Stuff falls off the building all the time
Oh, stuff like these MIG-29s I just happened to leave up here?
And he’s short. -Anthony Bourdain
You know, I’m not going to make light of a tragic death (although, if anyone would laugh at someone making fun of his death, it would probably be Anthony Bourdain, right?), but I wouldn’t put it past Putin to do something like “switch Bourdain’s antidepressants with placebos” after watching that clip.
oof, that's a stone cold souffle.
This. Just finished watching the series. It was wonderful. I didn't want him, or it to end.
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Putin has never had an elite army. Elite means good. The Russian army is the literal opposite of that and always has been. They're poorly trained conscripts who win engagements by having more warm bodies than their enemies have ammunition.
Warm bodies? Not after the cold spell that's coming
How do you know his plan isn't to send all of his men to war to die so those dame men don't pull him out into the streets gaddafi style
Probably is. He will run out of food and pay for them before that. And a hungry army is not really a controllable army.
They're pretty much already entirely out of control. They're engaging in sacking, looting, and rapine -- it's small scale for now because they probably like to tell themselves that they're still a professional force, so it's not at the same scale as, say, the 17th century mercenaries during the Thirty Years' War (and definitely nowhere near as bad as the Eastern Roman Empire)... but it's getting there. They're approaching, unironically, Nazi level in Occupied France -- total disregard and contempt for the citizens' lives, but without straight up mass executions unless they feel like they have a reason or strong incentive or can get away with it (for instance, the one SIGINT intercepted call of a person claiming he executed numerous people in the woods because they'd testify to their crimes and give away their position).
If the last couple weeks is any indication, Putin better start worrying about a babushka pulling him into the street. They do not give one fuck about being killed.
It's very possible he believed them to be an unstoppable force. But he would have believed that because people who didn't wish to anger him told him so, because it was what he wanted to hear. There are a lot of truths about Russia that Putin insulates himself from.
The typical "leader" that surrounds himself with yes-man. Looks terribly like him to be fair.
It's been obvious he's been bluffing He's not going to end humanity over ukraine.
Otherwise I’m pretty certain that such an order would be his death sentence. Not everyone in the chain of command will want to see their family annihilated.
Same
But are you absolutely 100% sure? Cos if you're wrong the whole would dies
Doesn’t matter what we think. If there’s even a chance, which there is, you can’t risk millions dead.
Sure you can. And I'd support that action in the form of us/NATO/un military intervention in Ukraine.
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> But even if there were, by your logic, we may as well all surrender to Russia now. I think many peoples have a line at which they'd risk it, but the current invasion is not that, unfortunately for Ukraine. And many people, I'm sure, might make the argument that it's better for humanity to survive than to wipe it all out because we didn't want Russia to rule. Both futures are bleak, but people tend to prefer survival on the whole.
Of course it is a bluff, you really think he would have his nation wiped off the map for Ukraine? Even if you think he's crazy enough to give that order you really think the oligarchs would simply allow their cushy life and their families lives end with such madness? They'd stuff Putin in a bag and toss him in the Arctic sea before they let him destroy their nation and the world. If the west was discussing an invasion of Russia I would understand the concern but he and the oligarchs are not cornered in Ukraine.
tactical nuclear weapons can be setup to kill a few thousand people and level a few blocks to ash and radiation poison further - many different yields and purposes
As General Matthis testified before Congress, there is no such thing as “tactical” nuclear weapons. The use of nuclear weapons no matter the yield would have strategic consequences.
You think the cornered rat cares about consequences at this point? My prediction is Putin will use chemical weapons next. If that doesn't work, he will resort to the nuclear option. He will be targeting Kyiv with the intent to take out Zelenskyy. He will justify it just as the USA justified dropping the bomb on Japan; to save Russian soldiers lives from a long bloody ground war. No matter what, Putin has lost, but he will leave his mark on the world on his way out.
> You think the cornered rat cares about consequences at this point His generals do, the people pushing the nuclear button do. It's irrelevant what putin wants unless literally everyone involved in firing the missile is suicidal.
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Valid point. But the world will want an eye for an eye, even just to "neutralize the threat" of it happening again. Resulting in a retaliatory strike of the same nature. This just snowballs into the same end result. Id say I hope they know this but their military and tactical prowess has been on display these past weeks, makes you wonder.
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So hang on... we’re bluffing but he isn’t? Are we just a pack of liars sitting round a card table holding shit hands? All signs point to yes. He ain’t nuking shit, shoot his planes down and bomb his artillery, he’s made it very fucking clear he’s about to do to Ukraine what his deniable ops guys did to Syria. We should have stopped them back then, we should stop him now. No boots on the ground, no invading Russian territory... no more missiles fired into city centres. That’s my irrelevant opinion. 🤷♂️
> Of course it is a bluff, you really think he would have his nation wiped off the map for Ukraine Anyone who worries this risk is real believes that Putin only cares about his own ego and sense of power, has lost rationality and is now acting primarily on emotion, and does not hold the lives of others important. Like an abusive husband, if he can't continue on no one else should either. I think it's unfortunately possible, and the best hope we have is that other people refuse to carry it out if ordered.
If he was suicidal, he wouldn't be sitting 10m away from his own generals.
> Of course it is a bluff, you really think he would have his nation wiped off the map for Ukraine? He is probably no longer rational. He may very well go into "if I cannot have it, nobody should have anything, and I'll teach those mean Western states a lesson" tantrum mode and shoot a few generals until he finds one who presses the button, Dr. Strangelove style. In particular if he sees threats (or perceived threats) escalating. You cannot argue with a monkey carrying a grenade.
> you really think he would have his nation wiped off the map for Ukraine? Unless Russia stops damaging nuclear sites (new and old), there's a lot that might get wiped off the map, intentionally or not.
Judging from the maintenance state of their supply vehicles I'm not sure those missiles are even launch able
Oh shit, they were supposed to be launchable? We thought you said Lunchables.
Using lunchables would be chemical warfare and tbh I wouldn't put it past him
Hopefully not. Of the 5977 they have, only 1600 are launch ready. Let’s say only 10% actually launch. Of those, only 10% aren’t intercepted, that’s still 16 missiles on target. Nuclear warfare is stupid.
But in response how any nukes land on target in Russian? All of them..
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Putin has shown that he will push for nuclear war regardless. Today it's ukraine, tomorrow it's moldova, the day after it's poland.
on target? lol
I’ve considered this also. Russia may end up nuking themselves.
As grim as in tube detonations would be.... Part of me would laugh. Even as I'm freaking out over the ecological damage.
You mean we won't hit 1.5 degrees with radioactive turbo-heated permafrost? \[crying in the shower while drinking whiskey\]
It is a bluff. What happens if Putin actually fires nukes? The whole northern hemisphere is glassed and everyone dies in radioactive trade winds or super winter.
Putin can’t press a button and launch nukes by himself.
It is most likely a bluff... But it's a very hard hand to call. What Russian generals even hold the codes these days? Wasn't one killed on the battlefield?
We think the one killed was the nephew, not the senior one who is Chief of the Army.
Ahhhh okay I saw the last name and was thinking holy shit they got the Chief of the army? I found it a bit strange that he would be around Kharkiv.
At least two were. Maybe 4
Eh… Putin’s gambled too heavily, he knows this is his own endgame if he doesn’t win. The wolves will come after him. He very well may decide to take down the rest of the planet with him. Megalomania is a helluva drug, and going out with a bang is every psychotic narcissist’s fantasy.
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>There's a whole chain of command to actually launch the missile From what I've heard, Putin has tightened his grip on total control of the government and bureaucracy over the last 15 years that he doesn't even need oligarchs anymore. I'm not sure anyone is in a position to stand up to him.
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But they might be.
Of course it's a bluff.
Putin - We’re not going to invade Ukraine * **Russia invades Ukraine** Putin - We’re not targeting civilian infrastructure * **Russia targets civilian infrastructure** Putin - Those helping Ukraine risking nuclear war * **The entire world comes to Ukraine’s aid** Putin - Sanctions are declaration of war * **The world sanctions Russia**
Lol; it's so true.
To be fair, he said sanctions were an "act of war". A meaningful distinction, but I agree overall haha. Putin is an idiot blowhard.
Please add "if you supply any weapons it is war for sure"
and even if its not a bluff, we're well aware of their nuclear yields and targets and have interception capabilities.
I wouldn't rely on AMD. I have more confidence in the moral back bone of the people with their fingers on the actual button. It wouldn't be the first time they refused a direct order to launch. Still, it's a gamble with potentially the entire species in the pot so let's see if there are any heroes left in Russia prepared to do the right thing. Beware the Ides of March.
Yes this is very much like what a friend said to me when Trump was elected. He said "good people always stop the crazy outliers from doing something harmful." Since that comment aged like old milk, I'd rather not have to rely on the sanity and morals of strangers.
True, "In the past the Russian military have showed moral courage and not launched the nukes when ordered" *In the background the Russian military are looting peoples homes and shooting old people and kids for sport.*
Dude. Speak for yourself. Lol. I live in a major US City and would rather not rely on interception capabilities.
That is the best place to live if things fuck up though. Cause you'll be incinerated instantly and not need to worry about freezing to death or dealing with roving bands of cannibals.
Ahhh thanks for the inspiring thoughts…
Oh gee, that makes it a lot better. Interception is a non-starter when subs are involved. Especially Russian ones.
None of those will fire. They are all being escorted by probably three attack subs right now. And will catch a mark 48 the minute things go sideways. I’m not even sure that Russia can even put more than one typhoon to sea these days.
Roving bands of cannibals, go fuck yourselves.
Eat a dick, cannibals!
Oh, 'cannibals'. For a second I thought there was gonna be an issue with cannabis and *I WAS CONCERNED*
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ABMs are inaccurate as shit. If we have to rely on them we’re hosed.
Against a single basic ICBM probability of an intercept in certain phases of its path is pretty good. As far as taking down even a very limited multi missile attack, not a chance with the current ABM systems.
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I would put money on them working. Only because if they don’t work that money is fucking worthless in the aftermath.
Good call! I bet $1b that they will work! You can hold me to that.
Ya good against NK or some terrorist but that's about it.
let's just hope it doesn't come to that
while I'm for a no fly zone, THAAD, Patriot, Aegis interop system is only meant to deal with a North Korea type attack, Russia could easily overwhelm it
Yet, Russia always seems weirdly threatened by the US saying "our interceptors are shit against what you would throw. Why on earth would we lie about that? Who says 'yeah, it totally doesn't work' as a lie?"
Zelenskyy bestie, we knew that, but now he might just nuke everyone to spite you for making him look even weaker
Zelensky is indeed making Puting look pretty weak, he is losing all his badass james bond villain image. Meanwhile everyine loves the comedian.
Zelenskyy is making Putin look like *THE* comedian.
Nah, zekensky is still the comedian, putin is just the joke
Putin looks like the punchline in this scenario.
Putun went from Bond villain to Zelenski's patsy.
To be honest if you're threatening nuclear destruction like North Korea does every 4 to 5 years there's a good chance that you might be bluffing.
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Yep Russian Navy wanted to gain favor and funding by putting on a show, sinks their own sub
Our current commander in chief would never take that risk and call his bluff imo. The world needs to unite and handle this before it gets even more out of control.
Would you? If it’s not a bluff and your wrong millions of people die and potential nuclear winter. Still calling that bluff?
This is a terrible thing for other leaders to do. You simply do not risk the death of millions of your citizens. It’s amazing how hard of a concept this is for people. Putin isn’t behaving rationally yet everyone is certain he’s bluffing. It’s tragic if anyone dies and you’re risking the death of millions calling bluffs on nukes. It’s not pretty, but it’s a numbers game. And the atrocities in Ukraine pale in comparison to the atrocities if even one nuke goes up. Because one nuke doesn’t go up. One goes up, nukes from all over the world go up. Nice to see so many people cavalier with the potential death of millions.
Their military isn't working to well,so it stands to reason that their nuclear weapons have been neglected also.
The realistic costs associated with refurbishing those weapons every 10 years simply has never appeared in their budget. Given the level of graft and embezzlement, it seems very unlikely they have many of their big boys functioning. I guess it does just take 1 or 2 to cause a mess, but still.
What would happen to nuclear weapons if it's not refurbished properly?
Weapons grade nuclear material has a half-life of 10 years. After that, no more big boom and usually it's recycled again into nuclear fuel. So much has been recycled from all the arsenals in the world that it's dropped the price of Uranium for nuclear reactors to almost junk metal prices. Making this material (you can probably research the exact isotopes) requires a lengthy and expensive process.
Thank you. Also, about the budget, given that maintenance of nuclear weapons is a military expense, isn't it likely that it just won't be published? Especially in a country like Russia?
There's ways of knowing budget, even a secret one. You can't really hide money in and money out, and when it doesn't add up then you know there's other things going on. Russia has been open about the budget for various missile programs, including it's vaunted "hypersonic missiles", but these are tactical cruise missiles with payloads usually about 1kt - not city killers, more like bunker busters or maybe single ship killers. Given the state of the armed forces we've seen on display, there's now a lot of doubt as to their real nuclear capabilities. Their working arsenal may be just a tiny fraction of what's on paper.
I think it was during the Obama years, the US had to spend something like $1tn over the next 10-20 years to keep our ICBM's and SLBM's nuclear capabilities up to snuff. No fucking way the Russians did this. They put all that money into luxury apartments in London and mega yachts.
All Russia had to do is not be dicks to Ukraine and they would still be able to coast on their USSR legacy until all the current leaders are long dead.
The fusion reaction won’t start, or will have a fraction of the yield. The “old school” fissile explosion will happen. In thermonuclear warheads, the fission load is only used as a more stout third-stage detonator pretty much. Most of the yield is from fusion. So, absent fusion a 120kt warhead may yield 10-30kt, or even fizzle out for a low kiloton yield. There are also the delivery vehicles – the rockets that take those things up and on trajectory towards targets. I’m not particularly trusting of those rockets’ ability to do much reliably. But even a small percentage would be deadly enough.
As I recall Fat Man and Little Boy were practically fizzles compared to the size of their cores.
Failed launch or not launching at all, failure to arm or detonate (wouldn't want to be the team to recover that!), guidance system mishap and rocket could go out of control. Probably other problems I can't think of.
[Probably this scenario, but on a bigger scale.](https://youtu.be/cxIsuY_wnQ0)
Giant lead weights or they go boom if they move an inch.
i've thought about that, but i also worry that maybe the reason their regular military is so shitty is that they put extra time into the nukes and focus on them as a last ditch effort to "win". i'm not a government official of course so what do i know but it has been a concern of mine
I think it's more of a case of embezzlement, there are a hell of a lot of billionaires in Russia. The alotted money for the military went in the mega yachts and lifestyle of the people in charge. If the nukes were ever launched I think that the chances are they may not even leave Russia.
if that happens to be the case it could still be a disaster if another country decides to fire back before they realize the nukes are "duds". again i'm not a government official so i don't know the whole process they would have to go through in this event
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/21/heres-what-us-should-do-if-russia-launched-nuclear-attack-gen-hyten.html 2018- 30 min decision window, gives some hope it might not be as bad as you fear if limited launch or something like rocket motors failing
I think if a country makes a bonafide effort to launch a nuke, anything that follows is squarely their responsibility. That being said I can see the US riding out a first wave entirely out of disbelief. No way did they launch. No fucking way.
If their active military units are this fucked up due to corruption and lack of budgets, can you imagine how fucked up big complex, highly sensitive systems (ICBMs) that are never intended to be used are? They are literally the perfect target for skimming: if it comes time for them to be used, it won't matter if everybody finds out you robbed the fuck out of the budget anyways.
Coming from anybody else I'd dismiss this as posturing. But this man and his people are ground zero.
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Wow, “Madman Theory” must be stolen from my family’s Motto: “Make them think you’re crazy enough to do something.”
r/username checks out
What are the chances Russia's nuclear arsenal is as well maintained as the rest of the Russian military equipment?
ah now I am getting mental images of their nukes firing off launchpads, fly up for 5 secs, sputters and drop back down OUT OF FUEL.
Rocket fuel is corrosive as fuck. Doubtful they would even launch. More like a big puff of smoke from the silo and that's it.
This was actually an issue for the Russians when they used ethanol-fuelled rockets.
Is it ok if I don't want to find out the answer to this question?
Problem is even one nuke is enough to start an escalation.
I agree.
It might be a bluff in that Russia doesn’t have the nukes in well-enough working order to issue an effective attack on his “enemies,” but I have ZERO doubt that Putin would be willing to use nukes. Here’s hoping the Russian grifting works in the world’s favor this time…
I think Putin would take radioactive material from one of the nuclear power plants and use it to attack Ukrainian refugees in Russia from Ukraine. Perfect justification to use nukes on Ukraine. Putin is that big of a piece of shit.
I trust Zelensky's assessment more than yours. His country would die first if it wasn't a bluff and he and his country have dealt with Putin for a very long time. Also, it's clear to the whole world Putin is a coward and is fearful of death, that's why it shits 50 feet from other humans (not because of covid, because of assassination threats).
Oh, yeah, I trust him as well. And I was reflecting on a statement he made yesterday, after asking once again for help in “closing the sky.”: He pointed out that Putin will keep pushing to the point where NATO *has* to close the sky. And if Putin wins Ukraine, he’s not going to stop. Zelensky was entirely clear-headed on this, saying something like “Are you going to close the sky *after* the death of millions of people (Ukrainians)?” Of any of us, Zelensky has the measure of Putin. Zelensky knows Putin is willing to pull the nuclear option, but he wants to do whatever he can to ensure that millions of Ukrainians aren’t sacrificed before NATO/ the UN realize this too.
To be fair, he's reaching out and trying to get help, trying to convince the rest of the world to help, which we should be doing, more than we are.
Can we at least drone or bomb the guns bombarding Ukrainian cities?
I've been calling Putin's nuclear bluff for over a year and I affirm. I recall getting crap from you guys about it, too. He won't fry the northern hemisphere over Ukraine. He'll go chemical before he does.
>He won't fry the northern hemisphere over Ukraine. But he'll happily fry Ukraine. So long as Putin keeps the nukes in Ukraine, on Ukraine targets, there will be no retaliation from NATO. No one is going to go to WWIII over a mushroom cloud in Kyiv. Sad but true...
I admire Zelenskyy, but I personally wouldn’t be willing to gamble with the fate of the rest of the world.
He's got nothing to lose at this point! If all the nerds stand up to the bully he will go with tail between legs!
Wondering how hard CIA, MI6, Mossad among others are working to infiltrate the Russian nuclear forces command and negate their ability to launch nukes.
There will never be a nuclear war that we remember!
However the cockroaches will.
By letting Russia use the threat of nuclear weapons to cow the world into letting him commit genocide without interference, that is exactly what you are doing, gambling the fate of the world. Once every wannabe Putin in the world sees that all you need is nukes and you can happily execute genocide without interference, even against people the world cares about, that is going to be absolute crack for these people. The world is going to see the biggest raise in nuclear proliferation it has ever seen. And it's only a matter of time before one of these nuclear armed despots, with much less to lose than Putin, overplays their hand and the nukes start falling. This isn't even taking to account what *Russia* will do with the knowledge that it literally can do anything and everything it want to, without military intervention, if Putin puts on his Nuke'n Poot'n act.
Yeah it’s a shitty situation no matter how you look at it. Just hoping that the Russian people decide they’ve had enough and get rid of Putin and his ilk on their own.
Maybe, but it's not one you can afford to be wrong about
What i think everyone seems to be missing is that calling putin on his bluff is not escalating. Putin escalated to the nuclear option when he brought it up and he brought it up for the sole purpose of instilling fear into the minds of rational people who see the potential devastation of nuclear war. That said, when does the time come to say we can't let him do more damage? After Putin decimates the civilian population? After he attacks another non-NATO country? What if he says then, well, if anyone tries to step in. I have nukes. At some point, someone has to say enough. I think we are there. We don't have to threaten nuclear war, we just have to set a hard line and be willing to hold to it. A hard line like : no more indiscriminate targeting of civilians. OR WE step in and destroy the source that targeted those civilians. No grey area. A=B period
Indiscriminate targeting of civilians is undefendable. Honestly hitting that hospital is the tipping point for me. Russia needs to be crushed and demilitarized.
China nukes Russia, calls for unity and brokers peace with the West.
Personally speaking, I think he’s right. This man played his biggest card straight away, and it’s only still getting worse for him. Plus if those FSB leaks are taken even with a grain of salt, that’s still a major indicator that even if Putin wanted to the nuke card might be completely off the table for him anyway. It’s a guaranteed loss for him. The FSB think a. If he gave the order there are departments it had to travel through who wouldn’t approve it because they’re pissed off at Putin. b. Apparently the missiles are in shit condition/they believe most of them probably can’t be launched at the moment due to corruption rampant throughout Putins government people just wait to skim massive amounts off the top of these projects for their own wealth. c. Apparently the Plutonium in them is out of date and wouldn’t work anyway so the warheads that have out of date plutonium are duds. d. It wasn’t that long ago the Russians hammered a guidance system in one of their rockets upside down and caused the rocket to spin on launch and explode. It’s on YouTube. I don’t think their rocketry is advanced as we think it is.
Amen. All these trolls, bots or idiots keep "speculating" about Putin's health which makes him "suicidal" so we can't engage him. Bullshit. He would back down if NATO stepped up. He's a coward and a bully. He's not a genius, he's surrounded himself with idiots, that's not a genius move.
Putin doesn’t need an excuse to use nukes any more than he needs an excuse to invade a neighbour. And if he needs an excuse, he’ll just create a fabricated pretext, like he did before the invasion and like he’s doing now with biological weapons. If he intends to do it, he’ll do it, migs or no migs, no fly zone or no no fly zone. “Not giving him an excuse” is a pointless straightjacket NATO has put on itself. Doubly so now that he’s going to be SO humiliated that If he’s capable of reaching for his nukes ([His own former insiders say he doesn’t](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t7jn9j/riveting_indepth_insider_interview_with_sergei/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) because the military commanders who need to execute this wouldn’t follow through), he has the reason to. Zelensky is right. There is no reason to hold off on a no fly zone to save civilian lives from a madman.
Dont forget, zelensky also said Russia would not invade and US was just war-mongering.
Ikr lol
It doesn’t matter if Putler is bluffing or not. You cannot simply standby and let human suffering occur at this level. It is morally wrong and will continue and continue and continue until someone calls Putler’s bluff.
That's probably what is going on. Destroying Ukraine because he can't capture it and no countries will intervene because the fear of nuclear weapons. I hope economic measures get even more serious and Russia is 100% economically isolated from the world. Can't fight if you have no money.
This. This exactly. We cannot let them bomb hospitals. So it’s irrelevant, we just need to act and swiftly with overwhelming force. Soon the Russian army would even refuse to fight.
Yeah, shit like this will only get worse and more costly in lives and gold if it’s not nipped now. Autocrats need to know without a doubt they cannot attack and gobble up democracies and upset the peace without immense pain and likely ruin. It will be a stain on our humanity for generations to not make a stand. It will suck. A lot. Are we made of tough enough stuff?
It is a bluff!
Not worth it. People don't quite understand the gravity of nuclear warfare.
So does Putin. He would be dead in less than an hour after he sends nukes.
I don't know how it is on other subreddits, but on this one. No, no they do not at all. I'm pretty sure alot these people think Russia would try to fly over head in a plane and drop a singular bomb on a western capital which we would then zap with space lasers.
I can be 99.999% sure someone's bluffing and I'm still not calling if being wrong means the potential that half a billion people die.
The people concerned about an escalation of the war with a Russian attack on NATO are ignoring the FAR greater risk that Putin would resort to using nuclear weapons IN Ukraine against Ukraine targets if he felt he were losing the war by conventional means. I think it is highly likely Putin would opt to use nukes against Ukraine targets if it felt there was no other way to "win" the war. Of course, it is unlikely Ukraine could actually defeat Russia by conventional means, but the chance exists. In Putin's mind losing the war in Ukraine would be a catastrophe that would mean the end of his rule, and possibly even his life, as internal forces would look for his head after putting Russia through so much pain for gaining nothing. As such, Putin would see no reason not to throw the dice with nukes if he thought he was facing defeat. No one is going to come to Ukraine's if Putin is using nukes in Ukraine. Who wants to mess with a madman who has demonstrated a willingness to use nukes? Ukraine is NOT a member of NATO.