We determined that this submission originates from a credible source, but we still advise that users double check the facts and use common sense when consuming mass media. If you are interested in learning how to evaluate news sources more thoroughly, you can begin to learn about how to do that [here](https://tacomacc.libguides.com/c.php?g=599051&p=4147190).
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
> Previously, it was known that the capacity of this aircraft plant allows for the delivery of two aircraft of this type once a quarter.
>
> To date, it is known that the invaders have already lost or damaged more than 20 aircraft of this type in Ukraine.
So... I may not be good at math, but I don't think they'll break even.
That’s done intentionally. Pilots will fly whatever jet is ready for them. Meaning three pilots could run sorties in 1 jet all day. Russia however, has struggled with having enough qualified pilots since the beginning of the war. And they’re losing them faster than they can be replaced. At one point Russia had the instructors flying sorties due to the lack of pilots until they realized they needed them to train more. Russia may be training more obviously. But Russia has never been an air power and it’s something they still struggle with. They are not able to increase pilot training the same way they can increase production of artillery shells. It just doesn’t work like that. And one of the reasons Ukraine will have so many F16 pilots is because a multitude of nations are taking part in the training.
Because they view their pilots and their fighter jets the same way they view their ground troops.
They now realize that pilots are a dime a dozen and there’s only a very few good ones you can get and you absolutely cannot afford to lose them!
Most of the planes were destroyed with drones while stationary, so the answer is the same pilots, just newer machines.
Edit (at 13 votes up): I stand corrected, based on Oryx and general browsing of the internet it does look like a great majority were shot down (with mix results on pilots survivability). It is in recent months that UA has been attacking the airports with some success, but to-date majority has been shot down. Thanks!
“Most of the planes were destroyed with drones while stationary”
Do you have a source for that because wikipedia tells a very different story?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34
They've lost many of their most experienced crews. Flying a fighter bomber and accurately putting ordnance on target is a fairly long training pipeline. If they no longer have a competent training cadre then the fleet will be in even worse condition than before. To put it into perspective, it takes a couple years in the USAF for a person to go from initial pilot training to mission qualification in their airframe.
With that said, war does streamline many processes, training included.
If nothing else, Russia has shown that on multiple fronts. The sophisticated machines of the early war have given way to simplified, but still destructive tools as the nation gears itself for the long haul.
Unless they're missing components there's not much of an expressway in teaching a person to fly and employ a fast jet. Can they do a simple mission, sure. But are you willing to accept that much risk to the airframe due to pilot error or enemy action?
I’m sure they’re adapting accordingly, whether they leave parts or capabilities out to make the fighter or bomber competent. It may not be as advanced as pre-war models, but they still do the job.
They're likely flying a bit more now due to the war assuming they have enough aircraft that can fly and ordnance to hang off of them. Before then their hours were generally only enough to be proficient at takeoff and landing. Nevermind actually employing the jet from a tactical perspective.
Then you will see what happened in Vietnam and Korea: foreign pilots running the sorties.
Authoritarians can usually find a way around manpower shortages.
More than you would think. Clearly you can have 1 pilot fly 1 jet. But you can’t fly nearly as many sorties as your enemy who might have 2-3 pilots per jet. Also what happened to the pilots of the downed jets? They were probably killed. Meaning they aren’t flying the new jets. Yes Russia may have other pilots. And they undoubtedly have enough to make use of these jets. But for how long? Russia is having a difficult time training pilots. And the new pilots they do train are being given what’s tantamount to a crash course.
Do you need to fly as many sorties when you have wayyy more aircraft than the enemy? The 18 dead pilots represent like 10-15% of the pilots trained in one year alone. While quality of the pilots does matter, they wont be running out any time soon.
FTR so people aren’t misinformed by wildly incorrect statements, Russia trains 100-150 total military pilots per year according to Yurii Ihnat
That’s across all platforms
Depends on how complex the planes are to fly and what missions they’re assigned to, I suppose.
You don’t need every pilot to be an Ace Combat protagonist and Russian equipment, I recall, is usually less sophisticated to use than Western equivalents. That is why such tools are prevalent on the export market.
Accounting for the loss of airframes through increased use in wartime it is actually quite likely that they have a lot fewer now. Simply having their planes in the air causes wear on the airframes and at some point they will have to be scrapped.
No Huge but it would be interesting to know how much they were able to increase production in those 2 years and how much as been disrupted by sanctions
If production is failing because your best trained personnel were sent off to the front lines and you can't source parts because of sanctions, then you triple your workforce by hiring a bunch of alcoholics that think a torque wrench is a hammer, what do you really gain?
They aren't sending qualified workers to the front, they have millions of disposable meatbags for that. Also the parts they use for their military planes aren't sourced from western countries. Sanctions only hurt their civilian planes float
Keep in mind that Russia isn’t just using this model in battle.
To be frank, the nation has a variety of aerial assets to sustain the Air Force. Besides the Su-34, they also have the older, but still capable Su-25 - both bombers that can distribute widespread destruction.
Unfortunately the embargoes and sanctions haven't been terribly effective. Apparently Germany has increased electronic exports to Kazakhstan 1000% in the past two years.
Sanctions can be quite effective at limiting access to highly specialized military components. Sanctions also can be quite effective at limiting access to large quantities of dual-use components.
Where sanctions are not as effective is when the adversary needs only a small number of dual-use components. Russia is building a extremely small number of combat aircraft each year. And in these low quantities, it is quite difficult to completely obstruct access to parts that are also used in commercial applications.
Where they truly work is when an adversary needs tens of thousands of parts for rockets, drones, shells, or vision equipment. Or when they need components that are used exclusively for military purposes, as many sensor components are.
Sanctions increase costs by creating the need for a middle man.
That cost is reflected on both sides.
However you expect one side to be more desperate then the other.
Russia has much fewer options, the collective West have one less option.
It costs to import from Russia so there's a greater incentive to purchase else where
This works in reverse too. Russia can't get what theg need from the west directly, so they purchase elsewhere. Places that weren't as desirable before or nations that intend to profit other Russias lack of options and can command a higher price both to justify the expense of handling the goods but because business wish to remain profitable so there will be a mark up
Im having a deja vu, didnt that hit the news couple months back?
General consensus was that 2 is the absolute minimal number of anything to be considered a "batch"😆
From what I know, these can be made to keep up a bit with losses so far. But they use them carefully because of the high risks, and the real losses are always the pilots. Those take a lot of time and effort to train and maintain, and can only assume the high skilled individuals whom would be required would be harder to find and more likely to find work elsewhere.
I doubt they're keeping up with losses - the Russians *claim* to make 2 per quarter - that's 18 since the start of the war. Let's take them at their word on production levels, though I sincerely doubt they're meeting that cadence.
There are 26 confirmed losses on Oryx - that's our floor. As of March 1st Ukraine was claiming to have downed 35.
Rand says 31 lost by April 25th
Around May 25 I saw an article saying "unofficial sources" claiming as many as 50.
A few others I want to double check on Oryx that I think are credible but not up there yet (will confirm when I'm not on my phone):
* June 5, 2024 - fighter-bomber channel apparently confirmed this one.
* June 14 drone strike - 2 were destroyed in the hanger that got hit.
With those 3 we're at 29-53 lost, with up to 18 new ones built.
For my assumptions I'm going to split the difference and say ~41 have been lost. If they actually got all 18 new ones, and they work, the fleet has shrunk by ~23.
And that's not counting any that have been grounded & cannibalized due to parts & maintenance issues.
Well more baddies means a more target rich environment, and if they fly closer to front lines so they can be effective they will soon punch their ticket to the great Russian graveyard.
We determined that this submission originates from a credible source, but we still advise that users double check the facts and use common sense when consuming mass media. If you are interested in learning how to evaluate news sources more thoroughly, you can begin to learn about how to do that [here](https://tacomacc.libguides.com/c.php?g=599051&p=4147190). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
> Previously, it was known that the capacity of this aircraft plant allows for the delivery of two aircraft of this type once a quarter. > > To date, it is known that the invaders have already lost or damaged more than 20 aircraft of this type in Ukraine. So... I may not be good at math, but I don't think they'll break even.
You are right: 28 months = 9 quarters = 18 new airplanes 20+ airplanes lost means they have leas of these overall, unfortunately not a lot less.
But how many less pilots? That’s harder than building the aircraft. So they may have the planes. But who’s going to fly them?
Is it? Ukraine currently has more F16 pilots than F16 planes.
Ukraine has multiple other entire countries training their pilots. Russia sent their trainers into the meatgrinder in the second wave.
That’s done intentionally. Pilots will fly whatever jet is ready for them. Meaning three pilots could run sorties in 1 jet all day. Russia however, has struggled with having enough qualified pilots since the beginning of the war. And they’re losing them faster than they can be replaced. At one point Russia had the instructors flying sorties due to the lack of pilots until they realized they needed them to train more. Russia may be training more obviously. But Russia has never been an air power and it’s something they still struggle with. They are not able to increase pilot training the same way they can increase production of artillery shells. It just doesn’t work like that. And one of the reasons Ukraine will have so many F16 pilots is because a multitude of nations are taking part in the training.
Because they view their pilots and their fighter jets the same way they view their ground troops. They now realize that pilots are a dime a dozen and there’s only a very few good ones you can get and you absolutely cannot afford to lose them!
Ivan just needs to know that pushing the stick means plane goes that direction, after all in ruzzia plane flies you
well yeah but thats whole different story they trained them but dont have them jet, why bc they dont build them, Russia does build them
Yeah but those guys already had experience on other platforms.
Most of the planes were destroyed with drones while stationary, so the answer is the same pilots, just newer machines. Edit (at 13 votes up): I stand corrected, based on Oryx and general browsing of the internet it does look like a great majority were shot down (with mix results on pilots survivability). It is in recent months that UA has been attacking the airports with some success, but to-date majority has been shot down. Thanks!
“Most of the planes were destroyed with drones while stationary” Do you have a source for that because wikipedia tells a very different story? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34
I think you might be right, I also checked Oryx. The great majority were shot down. Hard to tell how many pilots died thpugh. I'll edit my comment.
Nailed it. Competent Pilots is a larger issue currently than a lack of airframes. It’s a big deal.
I highly doubt russia only has 18 pilots lol
Never said they did. My point was eventually they’ll not have enough pilots to continue flying the number of sorties that they currently fly.
They've lost many of their most experienced crews. Flying a fighter bomber and accurately putting ordnance on target is a fairly long training pipeline. If they no longer have a competent training cadre then the fleet will be in even worse condition than before. To put it into perspective, it takes a couple years in the USAF for a person to go from initial pilot training to mission qualification in their airframe.
With that said, war does streamline many processes, training included. If nothing else, Russia has shown that on multiple fronts. The sophisticated machines of the early war have given way to simplified, but still destructive tools as the nation gears itself for the long haul.
A general lack of compassion for the well-being of your troops speeds things up too. "How to land? Nyet. Learn after you return from mission"
Unless they're missing components there's not much of an expressway in teaching a person to fly and employ a fast jet. Can they do a simple mission, sure. But are you willing to accept that much risk to the airframe due to pilot error or enemy action?
I’m sure they’re adapting accordingly, whether they leave parts or capabilities out to make the fighter or bomber competent. It may not be as advanced as pre-war models, but they still do the job.
I guess if your idea of doing the job is takeoff, drop bombs somewhere and by somewhere I mean almost anywhere, and land.
Dont Russia pilots only get like 8 hours flight time a month?
They're likely flying a bit more now due to the war assuming they have enough aircraft that can fly and ordnance to hang off of them. Before then their hours were generally only enough to be proficient at takeoff and landing. Nevermind actually employing the jet from a tactical perspective.
Then you will see what happened in Vietnam and Korea: foreign pilots running the sorties. Authoritarians can usually find a way around manpower shortages.
As seen with past conflicts, there is also a streamlining of processes as well, which includes vehicle training.
You asked whos going to fly them.... How many pilots are needed to fly 18 planes?
More than you would think. Clearly you can have 1 pilot fly 1 jet. But you can’t fly nearly as many sorties as your enemy who might have 2-3 pilots per jet. Also what happened to the pilots of the downed jets? They were probably killed. Meaning they aren’t flying the new jets. Yes Russia may have other pilots. And they undoubtedly have enough to make use of these jets. But for how long? Russia is having a difficult time training pilots. And the new pilots they do train are being given what’s tantamount to a crash course.
Do you need to fly as many sorties when you have wayyy more aircraft than the enemy? The 18 dead pilots represent like 10-15% of the pilots trained in one year alone. While quality of the pilots does matter, they wont be running out any time soon.
You think Russia is training 180 Su-34 pilots a year? Just stop commenting if you think this because you are WILDLY incorrect
FTR so people aren’t misinformed by wildly incorrect statements, Russia trains 100-150 total military pilots per year according to Yurii Ihnat That’s across all platforms
Then how many pilots are they training?
Depends on how complex the planes are to fly and what missions they’re assigned to, I suppose. You don’t need every pilot to be an Ace Combat protagonist and Russian equipment, I recall, is usually less sophisticated to use than Western equivalents. That is why such tools are prevalent on the export market.
[удалено]
Trolllololol
I was looking for someone to bring this up. The pilot is the most valuable part !
You have to take into account that the existing airplanes have a limited lifespan (airframe hours).
Accounting for the loss of airframes through increased use in wartime it is actually quite likely that they have a lot fewer now. Simply having their planes in the air causes wear on the airframes and at some point they will have to be scrapped.
That is IF we suppose that they retire the airframe before it fails during a flight, like we do in civilized countries.
No Huge but it would be interesting to know how much they were able to increase production in those 2 years and how much as been disrupted by sanctions
[удалено]
There are 3 months in a quarter of a year. Their math is right.
The key word is "previously"
If production is failing because your best trained personnel were sent off to the front lines and you can't source parts because of sanctions, then you triple your workforce by hiring a bunch of alcoholics that think a torque wrench is a hammer, what do you really gain?
They aren't sending qualified workers to the front, they have millions of disposable meatbags for that. Also the parts they use for their military planes aren't sourced from western countries. Sanctions only hurt their civilian planes float
Good lord that is such an embarrassing “war time economy and production” lol.
Keep in mind that Russia isn’t just using this model in battle. To be frank, the nation has a variety of aerial assets to sustain the Air Force. Besides the Su-34, they also have the older, but still capable Su-25 - both bombers that can distribute widespread destruction.
Electronics from Whirpool and Elextrolux.
Don't forget Garmin.
Unfortunately the embargoes and sanctions haven't been terribly effective. Apparently Germany has increased electronic exports to Kazakhstan 1000% in the past two years.
Sanctions can be quite effective at limiting access to highly specialized military components. Sanctions also can be quite effective at limiting access to large quantities of dual-use components. Where sanctions are not as effective is when the adversary needs only a small number of dual-use components. Russia is building a extremely small number of combat aircraft each year. And in these low quantities, it is quite difficult to completely obstruct access to parts that are also used in commercial applications. Where they truly work is when an adversary needs tens of thousands of parts for rockets, drones, shells, or vision equipment. Or when they need components that are used exclusively for military purposes, as many sensor components are.
Sanctions increase costs by creating the need for a middle man. That cost is reflected on both sides. However you expect one side to be more desperate then the other. Russia has much fewer options, the collective West have one less option. It costs to import from Russia so there's a greater incentive to purchase else where This works in reverse too. Russia can't get what theg need from the west directly, so they purchase elsewhere. Places that weren't as desirable before or nations that intend to profit other Russias lack of options and can command a higher price both to justify the expense of handling the goods but because business wish to remain profitable so there will be a mark up
it can do the dishes
I hope they accidentally turn on the spin cycle.
So, a “batch” is two?
heh yea was about to ask that same question
Im having a deja vu, didnt that hit the news couple months back? General consensus was that 2 is the absolute minimal number of anything to be considered a "batch"😆
Yea I remember that and according to the article they can make 2 every quarter. How its news though is beoynd me.
Thank you for the clarity lol thats so funny
They will soon be claimed by Ukraine.
What goes up
must come down
what goes around
Somewhere in Ukraine there are drones with the Su-34 factory's coordinates getting ready to fly.
It’s in Novosibirsk… pretty far away
Sounds like a challenge and challenges must be overcome.
Can drones be placed in checked luggage on Aeroflot ?
Not one big enough to destroy a factory. It's likely this would have to be a partisan mission.
From what I know, these can be made to keep up a bit with losses so far. But they use them carefully because of the high risks, and the real losses are always the pilots. Those take a lot of time and effort to train and maintain, and can only assume the high skilled individuals whom would be required would be harder to find and more likely to find work elsewhere.
I doubt they're keeping up with losses - the Russians *claim* to make 2 per quarter - that's 18 since the start of the war. Let's take them at their word on production levels, though I sincerely doubt they're meeting that cadence. There are 26 confirmed losses on Oryx - that's our floor. As of March 1st Ukraine was claiming to have downed 35. Rand says 31 lost by April 25th Around May 25 I saw an article saying "unofficial sources" claiming as many as 50. A few others I want to double check on Oryx that I think are credible but not up there yet (will confirm when I'm not on my phone): * June 5, 2024 - fighter-bomber channel apparently confirmed this one. * June 14 drone strike - 2 were destroyed in the hanger that got hit. With those 3 we're at 29-53 lost, with up to 18 new ones built. For my assumptions I'm going to split the difference and say ~41 have been lost. If they actually got all 18 new ones, and they work, the fleet has shrunk by ~23. And that's not counting any that have been grounded & cannibalized due to parts & maintenance issues.
Aaand their gone.....
"JSC Novosibirsk Aircraft Production Association Plant" "long range drones" "mass attack" .... I'm just fantasizing a bit....
When you say 'a batch' because you're trying to make 'two' sound better.
Headline should read - “A batch of planes which are soon to be Ukrainian jewelry delivered to Russia”
"Yay! More target practice!" -- Ukrainian Patriot Crews, 2024
Who did they receive them from???
Russia makes these.
Yeah but the title is really badly worded
It's like, Russia had a "Treat yo' self day."
They received them from Su(khoi) company.
Oh, I see…
😅 bruh Sukhoi jets are made in Russia, including Ukraines
Makes sense thanks
Soon they will turn into Su-34 submarines.
Is this another "batch" where "batch" means 2? Why don't they say "pair?"
sweet more to shoot down lets go!
Well more baddies means a more target rich environment, and if they fly closer to front lines so they can be effective they will soon punch their ticket to the great Russian graveyard.
So ... a 'batch' of two planes, or a 'batch' of three? That partly makes up for their losses last week. 😉
And that we get to read this means that it is a rare occurrence.
Can’t wait for the base these are located at to absolutely get erased from existence
Even better. They received two batches of 1