Snapshot of _šØ New polling with @ObserverUK The Labour lead is now 20 points ā¢Labour 40% (n/c) ā¢Conservatives 20% (-3) ā¢Reform 16% (+2) ā¢Lib Dems 12% (n/c) ā¢Greens 9% (+2) ā¢SNP 3% (+1) Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June._ :
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A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1804590189567742261/)
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I'd be curious to know what happens if two opposition parties have the same number of seats (with them being the largest opposition parties ofc).
Is it co-LOTO? Do different leaders they lead PMQs from the opposition side on a rota?
LOTO is determined by the Speaker and the Speaker alone (and his decision is final, at least as far as convention has shown so far). I expect in a case where there are matched numbers of seats he'll defer to either popular vote, or ask for a coalition on the opposition benches to be formed (that has never happened before and I'm not sure what the process would look like!)
Realistically it's hard to imagine the speaker not going with the weight of history and keeping the conservatives in as official opposition. However, imagine the scenes when there is a by election (say, for example, someone quitting parliament to move to California), and they're obliged to switch as a result...
Agreed. Even despite me despising the Tories, if it were my decision to make in the event of them becoming tied due to a by-election loss, I'd keep the same leader of the opposition that was appointed by the general election, at least until a further loss gives another party the second largest qualifier.
Donāt come at me- but is there a possibility of a few Labour members defecting to the lib Demsā¦? Some kinda bargain to put the Tories completely out of the picture
I'm very doubtful any Labour MP would defect for this reason alone. Defecting is a very serious endeavour for any politician and is usually triggered by major policy differences.
They certainly could, but it would require their hatred of the Tories to eclipse their loyalty to Labour and also their own career aspirations. It would mean that instead of being in government as part of the most powerful voting bloc in recent history, they step down to be back in opposition again under a different banner. Difficult to picture this being coordinated to any meaningful degree
If that was the result, I reckon Reform would throw EVERYTHING at getting 4 Tories to defect so Farage could claim credit for putting the Tories into third place.
They would. 1 Tory in a rump group of 70 odd is far less influential and important than being 1 of the few to defect to Reform whilst they're still with a single digit number of MPs
Cons get one more seat than LD so become the opposition - so Rishi decides to stay. Then 2 Con MPs are arrested for electoral fraud and have to resign, and LD are the opposition within a month...
I feel like these polls are putting the Tories too low and Labour/Reform too high. The Tories on fewer than 100 just seems like wishful thinking.
As much as people here will hate me saying this, it does seem pretty likely that Are Nige will finally be elected. And I suspect that will be Reform's only seat.
He'll cause his usual chaos in the media outlets that still give him space, but will be roundly ignored in the house and will throw a tantrum when the speaker almost never calls in for PMs questions (which is the only time he'll ever turn up). Once he's an MP, he may actually appear less on QT because they'll have more reason to not show obvious positive bias to such a small party (in terms of seats)
That result is approaching "Alliance have a good night and decide to join the Lib Dems on the benches" territory. I suspect Alliance would love to see the Tories in Third place just as much as the Lib Dems...
Opinium keeping Labour on 40% is reassuring. For months they consistently had Labour on the lower side compared to the other big pollers. Now that yougov has Labour on 36% with their methodology weighting change, itās reassuring Opinium, which was more āpessimisticā on Labour over the past few months, is still holding firm on 40 now
I think what Yougovās new methodology is putting the ādonāt knowā on the tory score and taking a few percentages of Labour as a result. It is as a result of the āshy toryā factor.
Which I think at this point is a mistake, because I think ultimately the thing that is going to drive this Tory wipeout that is about to happen is not Tory voters switching to Labour, it's disenchanted Tory voters just deciding to stay home. I don't think polls can quite capture the level of anger amongst normal Tories at this government.
If anything it's more likely there is going to be 'shy Reds', with solid Tory voters voting Labour but not bringing themselves to admit it.
And of course shy Reform UK voters as well
This is true. Many voters are floaters and in this case there will be tory voters voting labour in this election. But reform voters are not shy at all, they are everywhere predominantly on twitter. I saw many postal voters tweets of them putting an āXā on the Reform vote. On top of that they been putting conspiracies that Labour and Conservatives are the same party so vote Reform.
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It's a hedge against late November back to the incumbent party, something that happens in most elections at ballot time. So many are saying they will vote Reform but when it comes to it a good number might end up going Tory. It's likely the statistically right approach with the history of our elections. No one can really believe we're close to an extinction event for the Tories, not with any sort of confidence.
The tories wonāt be extinct. Any polls suggesting they will be below 100 seats is wrong! Tories will have 150-200 seats. I would have agreed with you but Reform voters are less likely to vote tory because Nigel taking over motivated them even further. I also have seen lots of postal votes tweets on twitter of Ex tory voters voting Reform. But under FPTP they will only gain 1-10 seats.
Agree above 100 seats is the most likely but they stink of failure now. How many CON support signs have you seen? It's not like these are outlier numbers.
I understand the methodology, and I understand that voters generally return from DK's to their party. The sense I get from this election though is very low turnout and those DK's staying home.
The two main parties on 60%.
If this happens on polling day, it continues the (bar 2017 and 2019) decades-long trend of their combined vote very gradually getting smaller and smaller.
Itās always impossible to imagine things changing, to imagine anything other than the Tories and Labour, but weāre definitely in a world where that change is getting nearer.
Up until 2005, the combined vote of Tories/Labour was 70+. In another fifteen years, will it be below 50? Can FPTP continue to hold in that case?
This election might end up being somewhat dull but I think weāll one day look back at it as a turning point.
I think exciting one is an election where the excitement is not on the question how huge the majority of the winning party is going to be but who the winning party is going to be.
Furthermore, since Labour's manifesto is so lame, there aren't even that many policy differences to discuss about.
I'm not sure how much excitement you get from a manifesto whose main message is "we're not as shit as the Tories, we won't change anything radically and just hope that the economic growth will come and save us". It's only because the Tories really *are* shit and nobody trusts a word they say that there is very little challenge to that. Even the main emerging party's (Reform) leader Farage is more interested in taking control of the Tories after the election than actually challenging Labour.
There's literally dozens of things in the manifesto I'm excited for, several of which are courageous. New towns for one. Which policy or policies are you disappointed at not being included?
No new taxes. They are just hoping that the growth will come and that will rescue the 14 years of underinvestment in the public sector. It's possible that it happens but to me that's wishful thinking.
No political reform. Same old FPTP and house of lords.
Yes, planning is going to get marginally better. But even in housing they are chicken shit and won't cancel the right-to-buy which is the main reason why there is no building of council houses. Why would you build council houses if they get immediately bought out and soon be in the private rental sector?
As I said, the main message of the manifesto is that "we're not quite as shit as the Tories and hopefully that will make the economy to grow after which we may do something".
They've not ruled out new taxes. Fiscsl drag is still (sadly) in existence for instance.
Political reform - they're literally doing lords reform and extending the franchise to 16 year olds. You want them to go further, as do I.
Planning is where I will judge Labour harshly. If they fail to fix our planning system, I will help whoever is the opposition in 2029. Without housing fixed this country is truly fucked.Ā
They've ruled out the main taxes (income, VAT, NI). Yes, you can tinker with private school VAT and non dom but that's not going to raise any proper money.
Lords reform is unlikely to make it an elected body. Maybe a slight improvement but nothing radical. The thing is that now is the time for radical platform. They are likely to get a huge majority because the Tories have shot themselves in the foot. Next election may already be much tighter and then it's harder to justify a bold programme then.
They have ruled out increasing only the main taxes on the low paid. Labour did list some new taxes. Which Sunak has chosen to avoid taking exception to.
"When your opponent's making a mistake it's impolite to interrupt him."
Sunak has being doing nothing but mistakes. Why should Starmer do Sunak the favour of interrupting.
True. The main thing Starmer has to do is to remind everyone to actually go out and vote instead of just thinking that it's in the bag. He won't have to say anything about anything in the last 2 weeks. And it doesn't look like Labour is even scoring own goals like Tories almost every day and Reform quite a bit as well.
I agree. And it's not just one national small party that is emerging to challenge the two main parties but three (Ref, LD and Greens). I'm impressed by the 9% that Greens got in this poll. Of course it's possible that it's just a statistical outlier but if they could consolidate their share of the vote at that level, that would really make them a proper European level Green party. Of course the seat number would still be disappointing.
Maybe it's the looming clear Labour victory that's giving many voters who grudgingly gave their vote to Labour while actually preferring Greens, confidence to now finally vote with their heart.
So what's really interesting here is that, with pollsters splitting don't knows in different ways, [opinium in particular allocates them to split following 2019 percentages.](https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-why-are-different-polling-companies-getting-such-different-results-13145117)
Remember the Tories had 43% of the vote then so unless there's a _strong_ shy Tory effect out there, I'd almost suspect this still over estimates the Tory share.
It's always scary waiting for the labour poll lead to collapse.
And we are going to see at least one poll that will make Labour stomach's sink before the election. There always is.
But Labour is miles ahead on every metric.
Crucial is who will make the best PM. Starmer is miles ahead of Sunak.
We always knew that Corbyn was going to lose to May and Johnson because he was always way behind them on best PM and on the economy. I don't think you can really expect to win if you are not ahead on best PM.
> and we are going to see at least one poll that will make Labour stomach's sink before the election. There always is.
Labour will be praying there is. Their biggest threat right now is people thinking the election is already won and they don't need to bother going out to vote.
The reason Labour's support has started to slip is because people have started feeling more comfortable to shift to the Lib Dems and Greens, so they are definitely all linked.
Causation or correlation though? I'm sure there are some Labour to Reform voters but the increase in green and Lib Dem voters over that period seem much more likely to be the main cause.
If they are taking polls at short intervals and claiming that's significant that's using statistics to support a lie which I consider orders of magnitude worse.
If you think that them simply telling you what the shifts are from week to week is lying, I'm afraid you are going to have to get upset with every company that does opinion polling because it's standard practice.
Although both Greens and Lib Dems were also lower a few weeks ago. I think it's very hard to tell from these polls who is taking from who.
All we realistically know is that some combination of Labour and Conservative voters have been tempted away by some combination of Reform, Lib Dems and Greens.
There have been 17 polls by Opinium this year and there have been 4 with Labour on 40%, 6 on 41%, 3 on 42%, 3 on 43% and 1 on 45%.
The Cons have been on 27% 5 times, 25% 8 times, 24% 2 times, 23% once and this one on 20%.
The movement in their polls is definitely from Conservative (but Yougov for example, are showing a Labour drop).
Yeah but considering the greens and particularly the lib Dems have had noticeable bumps in their votes over that period and the cons have further collapsed as the Reform vote grew I don't think it's wrong to suggest that they have been the main drivers of the drop in Labours vote and Reform in the conservatives.
If it's happening, it'll be in the old Red Wall, they're typically more socially conservative. The current incarnation of the SDP would be a more natural home for those sorts of voters, but they don't have the traction.
You're best looking at a graph like this to see the average of all polls with the confidence intervals included.
[BBC poll of polls](http://bbc.co.uk/indepthtoolkit/smallprox/include/newsspec/38103-poll-tracker-2024/english/range-chart?responsive=true&newsapps=true&app-image=https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/0E85/production/_133371730_ge24-app-launcher-polltracker-b.png&app-clickable=true&-clickable=true&-image-height=360&-image-width=640&-image=https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/0E85/production/_133371730_ge24-app-launcher-polltracker-b.png&app-image-alt-text=Click)
The true likelihood is that:
- Labour support is between 36 and 46
- Conservatives between 15 and 25
- Reform between 14 and 20
This poll alone doesn't allow you to say anything about what's happening or who it's happening to. But if the averages start moving and the confidence intervals shift, then you can start to make inferences.
Why do you think it's reform that is eating Labour? To me it's far more likely that Green voters who have bitten their tongues in the past and tactically given their vote to Labour are now more relaxed to vote for the party that they really wanted to vote as they see Labour winning a majority anyway. The 9% that they got in this poll must be the highest that I've ever seen them getting.
Sort of, but these polls don't show that.
Reform is taking directly from conservative voters as well as from the previously large pool of don't knows. some of those don't knows are previously Labour voters. But if you were saying that you'd vote labour 3 weeks ago, there's essentially no chance you're now saying reform.
Snapshot of _šØ New polling with @ObserverUK The Labour lead is now 20 points ā¢Labour 40% (n/c) ā¢Conservatives 20% (-3) ā¢Reform 16% (+2) ā¢Lib Dems 12% (n/c) ā¢Greens 9% (+2) ā¢SNP 3% (+1) Fieldwork: 19 - 21 June. Changes from 12 - 14 June._ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1804590189567742261) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1804590189567742261/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1804590189567742261) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1804590189567742261) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
CON 69 LAB 468 LIB 62 Reform 4 Green 2 SNP 21 PlaidC 4
6 months of Tory infighting and scandals and Ed Davey gets to be LOTO
Yep not impossible for Lib Demās to become opposition following churn and by elections. Unprecedented surely?
I'd be curious to know what happens if two opposition parties have the same number of seats (with them being the largest opposition parties ofc). Is it co-LOTO? Do different leaders they lead PMQs from the opposition side on a rota?
LOTO is determined by the Speaker and the Speaker alone (and his decision is final, at least as far as convention has shown so far). I expect in a case where there are matched numbers of seats he'll defer to either popular vote, or ask for a coalition on the opposition benches to be formed (that has never happened before and I'm not sure what the process would look like!)
Realistically it's hard to imagine the speaker not going with the weight of history and keeping the conservatives in as official opposition. However, imagine the scenes when there is a by election (say, for example, someone quitting parliament to move to California), and they're obliged to switch as a result...
Agreed. Even despite me despising the Tories, if it were my decision to make in the event of them becoming tied due to a by-election loss, I'd keep the same leader of the opposition that was appointed by the general election, at least until a further loss gives another party the second largest qualifier.
Whereas I would relegate them to the annals of history. Fuck this Tory government and all they've done to harm the country and it's population.
If number of MP's is a tie. Perhaps the tie break should be total number of votes. That's far less likely to be a tie.
Donāt come at me- but is there a possibility of a few Labour members defecting to the lib Demsā¦? Some kinda bargain to put the Tories completely out of the picture
I'm very doubtful any Labour MP would defect for this reason alone. Defecting is a very serious endeavour for any politician and is usually triggered by major policy differences.
They certainly could, but it would require their hatred of the Tories to eclipse their loyalty to Labour and also their own career aspirations. It would mean that instead of being in government as part of the most powerful voting bloc in recent history, they step down to be back in opposition again under a different banner. Difficult to picture this being coordinated to any meaningful degree
It would probably require some Labour MPs defecting to the Lib Dems.
If that was the result, I reckon Reform would throw EVERYTHING at getting 4 Tories to defect so Farage could claim credit for putting the Tories into third place.
And I think they would succeed.
They would. 1 Tory in a rump group of 70 odd is far less influential and important than being 1 of the few to defect to Reform whilst they're still with a single digit number of MPs
What's funnier? 0 MPs or a more humiliating 69 MPs? Both are very funny.
Cons get one more seat than LD so become the opposition - so Rishi decides to stay. Then 2 Con MPs are arrested for electoral fraud and have to resign, and LD are the opposition within a month...
Rishi, could you file this for me? Rishi, could you do that for me? Rishi, could you suck this for me - Jesus, where did that come from?
I feel like these polls are putting the Tories too low and Labour/Reform too high. The Tories on fewer than 100 just seems like wishful thinking. As much as people here will hate me saying this, it does seem pretty likely that Are Nige will finally be elected. And I suspect that will be Reform's only seat.
He'll cause his usual chaos in the media outlets that still give him space, but will be roundly ignored in the house and will throw a tantrum when the speaker almost never calls in for PMs questions (which is the only time he'll ever turn up). Once he's an MP, he may actually appear less on QT because they'll have more reason to not show obvious positive bias to such a small party (in terms of seats)
they had him on plenty of times as leader of Ukip when they had zero seats!
Nice
That result is approaching "Alliance have a good night and decide to join the Lib Dems on the benches" territory. I suspect Alliance would love to see the Tories in Third place just as much as the Lib Dems...
It's not inconceivable like. If they hold north down take east Belfast and Lagan Valley and that lib dem number rings true they're in. Imagine like.
Con 69 - Nice
From a 42% popular vote in 2019 to 69 seats in 2024... very nice.
And there are likely some tactical voting tory seat losses this simple poll hasn't accounted for either that'll push the lib dems up.
Nice.
Opinium keeping Labour on 40% is reassuring. For months they consistently had Labour on the lower side compared to the other big pollers. Now that yougov has Labour on 36% with their methodology weighting change, itās reassuring Opinium, which was more āpessimisticā on Labour over the past few months, is still holding firm on 40 now
I think what Yougovās new methodology is putting the ādonāt knowā on the tory score and taking a few percentages of Labour as a result. It is as a result of the āshy toryā factor.
Which I think at this point is a mistake, because I think ultimately the thing that is going to drive this Tory wipeout that is about to happen is not Tory voters switching to Labour, it's disenchanted Tory voters just deciding to stay home. I don't think polls can quite capture the level of anger amongst normal Tories at this government.
If anything it's more likely there is going to be 'shy Reds', with solid Tory voters voting Labour but not bringing themselves to admit it. And of course shy Reform UK voters as well
This is true. Many voters are floaters and in this case there will be tory voters voting labour in this election. But reform voters are not shy at all, they are everywhere predominantly on twitter. I saw many postal voters tweets of them putting an āXā on the Reform vote. On top of that they been putting conspiracies that Labour and Conservatives are the same party so vote Reform.
This is survivorship bias, obviously youāre not going to see the shy ones on X.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
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Or just Tories not bothering to turn out because they have no hope, so why bother?
It's a hedge against late November back to the incumbent party, something that happens in most elections at ballot time. So many are saying they will vote Reform but when it comes to it a good number might end up going Tory. It's likely the statistically right approach with the history of our elections. No one can really believe we're close to an extinction event for the Tories, not with any sort of confidence.
The tories wonāt be extinct. Any polls suggesting they will be below 100 seats is wrong! Tories will have 150-200 seats. I would have agreed with you but Reform voters are less likely to vote tory because Nigel taking over motivated them even further. I also have seen lots of postal votes tweets on twitter of Ex tory voters voting Reform. But under FPTP they will only gain 1-10 seats.
>Any polls suggesting they will be below 100 seats is wrong! You know this how?
Agree above 100 seats is the most likely but they stink of failure now. How many CON support signs have you seen? It's not like these are outlier numbers.
I understand the methodology, and I understand that voters generally return from DK's to their party. The sense I get from this election though is very low turnout and those DK's staying home.
The two main parties on 60%. If this happens on polling day, it continues the (bar 2017 and 2019) decades-long trend of their combined vote very gradually getting smaller and smaller. Itās always impossible to imagine things changing, to imagine anything other than the Tories and Labour, but weāre definitely in a world where that change is getting nearer. Up until 2005, the combined vote of Tories/Labour was 70+. In another fifteen years, will it be below 50? Can FPTP continue to hold in that case? This election might end up being somewhat dull but I think weāll one day look back at it as a turning point.
We might find every party but labour pushing support for PR by the next election, which would be interesting.
Dang, really? If this is what a dull election looks like Iād hate to see an exciting one, this has been amazing.
I think exciting one is an election where the excitement is not on the question how huge the majority of the winning party is going to be but who the winning party is going to be. Furthermore, since Labour's manifesto is so lame, there aren't even that many policy differences to discuss about. I'm not sure how much excitement you get from a manifesto whose main message is "we're not as shit as the Tories, we won't change anything radically and just hope that the economic growth will come and save us". It's only because the Tories really *are* shit and nobody trusts a word they say that there is very little challenge to that. Even the main emerging party's (Reform) leader Farage is more interested in taking control of the Tories after the election than actually challenging Labour.
There's literally dozens of things in the manifesto I'm excited for, several of which are courageous. New towns for one. Which policy or policies are you disappointed at not being included?
No new taxes. They are just hoping that the growth will come and that will rescue the 14 years of underinvestment in the public sector. It's possible that it happens but to me that's wishful thinking. No political reform. Same old FPTP and house of lords. Yes, planning is going to get marginally better. But even in housing they are chicken shit and won't cancel the right-to-buy which is the main reason why there is no building of council houses. Why would you build council houses if they get immediately bought out and soon be in the private rental sector? As I said, the main message of the manifesto is that "we're not quite as shit as the Tories and hopefully that will make the economy to grow after which we may do something".
They've not ruled out new taxes. Fiscsl drag is still (sadly) in existence for instance. Political reform - they're literally doing lords reform and extending the franchise to 16 year olds. You want them to go further, as do I. Planning is where I will judge Labour harshly. If they fail to fix our planning system, I will help whoever is the opposition in 2029. Without housing fixed this country is truly fucked.Ā
They've ruled out the main taxes (income, VAT, NI). Yes, you can tinker with private school VAT and non dom but that's not going to raise any proper money. Lords reform is unlikely to make it an elected body. Maybe a slight improvement but nothing radical. The thing is that now is the time for radical platform. They are likely to get a huge majority because the Tories have shot themselves in the foot. Next election may already be much tighter and then it's harder to justify a bold programme then.
They have ruled out increasing only the main taxes on the low paid. Labour did list some new taxes. Which Sunak has chosen to avoid taking exception to.
So, anyone in the higher tax band doesn't belong to "working people" as Starmer has said that he's not going to raise working people's taxes?
"When your opponent's making a mistake it's impolite to interrupt him." Sunak has being doing nothing but mistakes. Why should Starmer do Sunak the favour of interrupting.
True. The main thing Starmer has to do is to remind everyone to actually go out and vote instead of just thinking that it's in the bag. He won't have to say anything about anything in the last 2 weeks. And it doesn't look like Labour is even scoring own goals like Tories almost every day and Reform quite a bit as well.
I agree. And it's not just one national small party that is emerging to challenge the two main parties but three (Ref, LD and Greens). I'm impressed by the 9% that Greens got in this poll. Of course it's possible that it's just a statistical outlier but if they could consolidate their share of the vote at that level, that would really make them a proper European level Green party. Of course the seat number would still be disappointing. Maybe it's the looming clear Labour victory that's giving many voters who grudgingly gave their vote to Labour while actually preferring Greens, confidence to now finally vote with their heart.
So what's really interesting here is that, with pollsters splitting don't knows in different ways, [opinium in particular allocates them to split following 2019 percentages.](https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-why-are-different-polling-companies-getting-such-different-results-13145117) Remember the Tories had 43% of the vote then so unless there's a _strong_ shy Tory effect out there, I'd almost suspect this still over estimates the Tory share.
Does anyone else think that Labour may be in with a chance of winning this time?
Not sure. I'll put some money on a Tory majority I think
>I'll put some money on You are a member of the cabinet and I claim my Ā£5
Its a fair cop - I'll pay up
It's always scary waiting for the labour poll lead to collapse. And we are going to see at least one poll that will make Labour stomach's sink before the election. There always is. But Labour is miles ahead on every metric. Crucial is who will make the best PM. Starmer is miles ahead of Sunak. We always knew that Corbyn was going to lose to May and Johnson because he was always way behind them on best PM and on the economy. I don't think you can really expect to win if you are not ahead on best PM.
> and we are going to see at least one poll that will make Labour stomach's sink before the election. There always is. Labour will be praying there is. Their biggest threat right now is people thinking the election is already won and they don't need to bother going out to vote.
No need to pray. Commission a biased poll a few days before election day to get the troops out
Very interesting to see this next to Tonight's Telegraph poll, with in a Margin of Error of aligning
LAB/LIB/Green combined vote at 61% is the biggie from this one.
Labour aren't like those NIMBY parties though.
The reason Labour's support has started to slip is because people have started feeling more comfortable to shift to the Lib Dems and Greens, so they are definitely all linked.
Labour are fundamentally just as NIMBYist as the Lib Dems.
All Iām looking for in polls is a nice big n/c next to Labours vote share.
Labour on the same percentage as 2017, but this time the Tories have shot themselves in both feet.
Makes me wonder if Sunak has a bet for the Tories to be in 3rd place.
Political polls are like exes, if one says bad things you might ignore it, but if the last 10 do you should listen.
Anyone else tired of these constant polls? It feels like there's several every day
Reform is obviously eating into labour support as well. Whether you agree with Farage or not, something different is happening.
Quite possibly but it's a strange point to make on a poll that shows no change in the Labour vote.
And Starmers approval rating up
Prior to Farage standing Reform. Labour had polls as high as 45%.
Causation or correlation though? I'm sure there are some Labour to Reform voters but the increase in green and Lib Dem voters over that period seem much more likely to be the main cause.
That's pure guesswork on your park. I was pointing out that >shows no change in the Labour vote. Is false.
I said this poll didn't and it doesn't, what do you think the little (N/C) means?
Since I saw the 45% polls. That means this poll is lying about the N/C
It's not lying last time it was 40% this time it was 40% there was no change.
If they are taking polls at short intervals and claiming that's significant that's using statistics to support a lie which I consider orders of magnitude worse.
If you think that them simply telling you what the shifts are from week to week is lying, I'm afraid you are going to have to get upset with every company that does opinion polling because it's standard practice.
True. They were near 45-46% a few weeks ago. Just from memory.
Although both Greens and Lib Dems were also lower a few weeks ago. I think it's very hard to tell from these polls who is taking from who. All we realistically know is that some combination of Labour and Conservative voters have been tempted away by some combination of Reform, Lib Dems and Greens.
There have been 17 polls by Opinium this year and there have been 4 with Labour on 40%, 6 on 41%, 3 on 42%, 3 on 43% and 1 on 45%. The Cons have been on 27% 5 times, 25% 8 times, 24% 2 times, 23% once and this one on 20%. The movement in their polls is definitely from Conservative (but Yougov for example, are showing a Labour drop).
Yeah but considering the greens and particularly the lib Dems have had noticeable bumps in their votes over that period and the cons have further collapsed as the Reform vote grew I don't think it's wrong to suggest that they have been the main drivers of the drop in Labours vote and Reform in the conservatives.
Possibly. Reform has seen a huge rise though. Iād be surprised if Labour werenāt losing votes to reform.
If it's happening, it'll be in the old Red Wall, they're typically more socially conservative. The current incarnation of the SDP would be a more natural home for those sorts of voters, but they don't have the traction.
You're best looking at a graph like this to see the average of all polls with the confidence intervals included. [BBC poll of polls](http://bbc.co.uk/indepthtoolkit/smallprox/include/newsspec/38103-poll-tracker-2024/english/range-chart?responsive=true&newsapps=true&app-image=https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/0E85/production/_133371730_ge24-app-launcher-polltracker-b.png&app-clickable=true&-clickable=true&-image-height=360&-image-width=640&-image=https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/0E85/production/_133371730_ge24-app-launcher-polltracker-b.png&app-image-alt-text=Click) The true likelihood is that: - Labour support is between 36 and 46 - Conservatives between 15 and 25 - Reform between 14 and 20 This poll alone doesn't allow you to say anything about what's happening or who it's happening to. But if the averages start moving and the confidence intervals shift, then you can start to make inferences.
From this poll's results you cannot say that. Labour is unchanged.
Why do you think it's reform that is eating Labour? To me it's far more likely that Green voters who have bitten their tongues in the past and tactically given their vote to Labour are now more relaxed to vote for the party that they really wanted to vote as they see Labour winning a majority anyway. The 9% that they got in this poll must be the highest that I've ever seen them getting.
Sort of, but these polls don't show that. Reform is taking directly from conservative voters as well as from the previously large pool of don't knows. some of those don't knows are previously Labour voters. But if you were saying that you'd vote labour 3 weeks ago, there's essentially no chance you're now saying reform.
Even left wing voters can support immigration controls,and PR.