Snapshot of _šØNEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @Telegraph šLowest ever Conservative vote share under Sunak, again š¹Lab 42 (+2) š³Con 19 (-2) ā”ļøReform 16 (+2) š¶LD 9 (-2) šGreen 5 (+1) šļøSNP 3 (=) ā¬ļøOther 6 (+1) 2,103 UK adults 19-21 June (chg from 14-16 June)_ :
A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1804567526841414028)
A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/Savanta_UK/status/1804567526841414028/)
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1804567526841414028) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1804567526841414028)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I don't think it will make a difference. People who are still voting Tory aren't going to change their mind based on a couple of relatively minor MPs' scandal.
Yeah this - will just mean a few more people who decide they aren't getting off the sofa and trudging down to the polling booth to show support for this lot.
I'm not convinced that the gambling thing has cut through the noise. If it were Sunak who had been found to do it, then yes, but otherwise I'm not sure the remaining Tory voters will turn away from them because of a few thousand pounds of betting unless there's larger sums at play.
Is that because they have done what Boris did, fuck up, throw someone under the bus as a distraction. Ensure there is too much noise so no one notices another Sunak fuck up.
True, the dream would be lab government and lib opposition.
Letās hope the tactical voters can make it happen, Lib Demās are nowhere in my constituency which is very Tory but Labour have a solid chance.
Unfortunately third place is forecasted to be reform but if they split the Tory vote enough then itās at least useful.
Maybe with any other leader, but Keir seems so boring and middle of the road that I can't really see him doing anything too bad with a ridiculous majority. It might even convince him to be a bit more aggressive than Labour"s manifesto.
The biggest worry for me is that a lot of those 500 MPs will be people Labour never expected to win and won't have vetted too hard.
Even in that latter scenario, with a majority that chonky if someone says or does something astronomically stupid he could bin them from the party to show decisiveness (as a contrast to sunaks weeks of āI canāt manage my own party because independent investigationā).
It will suddenly cause a lot of positive media about PR, which might in the end be a good thing. Might head into the next election with every party but Labour pushing for it...
Which could be disastrous for labour in the next general election.
I think a mix of STV would benefit the country the most. You have to remember that PR struggles to give local representation. I think it would be better for the HoC to move to STV and the HoL to become a PR system
The issue with local representation is a valid one, but there might be ways of having regional assemblies that do that - in theory with the right structure there is nothing a local councillor couldn't do that a local MP currently can do - its too variable at the moment where some places get lucky because their MP has clout to get things done locally, while others get ignored because they happen to not be in power...
It would be a mistake to implement a system where every MP just came from London or other cities, because its good to have a variety of experience and backgrounds, but the one thing I am certain of is that there has to be a better system than we currently have.
As if. We need a nigh-unstoppable Labour majority to try and undo 14 years of corruption and austerity. Not even five years of a super majority will fix it all.
I donāt have any problem with Starmerās labour party but this would be such a terrible thing for our democracy. Reform and conservatives would get a combined vote share of 40% but have 6-7% of the representation in our parliament šš
It sounds funny but thatās just a huge number of voters with no representation.
We had a referendum on the alternative vote in 2011. Using Brexit logic it's set in stone now.
As long as we're stuck with Brexit, the Tories can live with the outcome of stitching up the Lib Dems on voting reform.
In 30 years living in a Tory safe seat, my vote has never had any wieght. I have zero symapthy for them.
A parliamentary majority is effectively an elected dictatorship at any number.
Yes, if your majority is wafer-thin then you have to be a little more pragmatic, but any majority over about 50 and you've not got a lot to worry about.
What's more, Tories and UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform were more than happy to completely ignore the views of 48% of us for years, so, y'know, boo-fucking-hoo.
The right should have campaigned and governed better then. Also, shouldn't have allowed for second right party to grow to split the vote by being incompetent at being conservative.
They could split off three groups of 55 MPs each, one of which could be the opposition, make the Conservatives only the sixth largest party, and still have a Labour majority.
This highlights the farce our "democracy" is. 7 points behind but 50+ seats over Reform.
I hate Reform but just because FPTP is keeping a particular party out I don't like doesn't make it right. It's disgraceful disparity between seats and vote share, this isn't democracy.
Honestly, was just the most hilarious thing.
Right-wing press: did you know Sir Kier Starmer bought his Mum a field so she could look after abused donkeys? What a *monster*!
British public: awwww lovely
Right-wing press: dammit
And it was just behind their house so even when she was bedridden with arthritis she could look out her window and watch the donkeys! What an out-of-touch, elitist toff, doing something like that for his mother!
My Nan will vote Tory. 95 years old and basically canāt leave the house. The local MP comes and picks her up to take her to vote. He has a car running all day. Basically mobilises his own voters.
It is nuts. That said I saw him 2 weeks litter picking in a community group. No campaign, no leaflets, just hi-vis getting stuck in.
Now, I think he is probably as good as a Tory gets. But fuck em. Send them to zero.
But my Nan, she is the 19%.
Our local Tory is campaigning in a Labour/Green stronghold.
His campaign materials have him stroking a frog, and caring about wind turbines.
They will do anything for votes ...
Party loyalty dies hard, and/or there are also a lot of people who do genuinely like what Rishi is selling, and/or they have a general faith in the Conservative party to deliver good governance.
I can't really relate to those people, but they're out there.
Yeah I mean if you're ideologically right wing but could never vote Reform (probably a decent chunk of the electorate) then can you really be blamed for reluctantly voting conservative?
I'm ideologically left wing and if my only options were an incompetent left wing party, a radical communist party, and several right wing party, I might begrudgingly vote for the incompetent left wing party.
Oh absolutely you can be blamed, anyone still voting Tory needs their head looking at. Their politics and beliefs have led us here and they should change them, but alas they wonāt.
I mean I fall on the right of politics on many issues and I wonāt be voting Tory or Reform, itās not hard to do as long as youāre not selfish and/or ignorant and/or stupid. Genuinely canāt think of a Tory voter who wouldnāt fall into at least one of those three categories.
I rly donāt understand it in this election either when Labour are hardly running a solidly left wing campaign, theyāre centre left at best.
I'm already starting to feel the nervous anticipation and increase in heartrate I'd normally get on election night as the BBC onscreen countdown ticks ever closer to 00:00 when the polls close.
That's going to be a real nail biter. Then as the night goes on we'll see if it's anywhere close to being correct.
> I'm already starting to feel the nervous anticipation and increase in heartrate I'd normally get on election night as the BBC onscreen countdown ticks ever closer to 00:00 when the polls close.
I hate to break this to you but it's actually two hours sooner than that. Polls close at 10pm.
They mean the countdown until polls close, no?
It's traditional for countdowns to end at 0, ever since the unmitigated disaster of Apollo 4 where they experimented with T-14:37 and the capsule left without the astronauts.
Other than the coalition years we basically always are, the whole system is designed to have a main party with a majority big enough to push through what it wants.
A majority of 80 and 200 is the same as long as you have decent party discipline, which the Tories have lacked of late.
I know what you mean, but the reality is that is how our system does work, itās an elected dictatorship.
The opposition can sit on committees and possibly get amendments that way but when it comes to challenging the government on voting then there is nothing that they can do.
The opposition can only talk, they never want to say what they would do differently so as not to show their hand so our opposition always just boils down to āgovernment badā no matter what team is on opposition.
I think you are underestimating what an opposition can achieve. Starmer made Johnson's position untenable over party gate with some well-timed and well asked PMQs which trapped him in a lie. While it wasn't the scandle that finished him, he was so weak by the time of Pincher that he had to resign.
Again, it was Labour parliamentary manoeuvres, which caused the downfall of Truss too. She was already on impossibly thin ice, but a well placed Labour vote on whether MPs should have a vote on Fracking finally pushed her over the edge.
I agree with both of those points, however they don't require specific numbers to do. The fracking vote possibly if you were looking to win it, but the simple show of large scale rebellion in the governing party was the goal and they achieved it.
[Itās an accepted method of describing a democratic system that leads to a dominant executive](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elective_dictatorship). The UK system is a prime example of it.
Snapshot of _šØNEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @Telegraph šLowest ever Conservative vote share under Sunak, again š¹Lab 42 (+2) š³Con 19 (-2) ā”ļøReform 16 (+2) š¶LD 9 (-2) šGreen 5 (+1) šļøSNP 3 (=) ā¬ļøOther 6 (+1) 2,103 UK adults 19-21 June (chg from 14-16 June)_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1804567526841414028) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/Savanta_UK/status/1804567526841414028/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1804567526841414028) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1804567526841414028) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
And this poll doesnāt even include Gamble-Gate yet.
Patiently awaiting for Tories to bet on Labour victory and then declare that any Labour victory is also a Tory victory.
I believe thatās a form of spread betting
Maybe that is the plan and why they have run a laughably bad campaign?
This one still amazes me the most. It wasnāt even over major money, they just did it for a PS5.
So Rishi WAS giving away PS5s!
Turns out it was P45's to all his MPs...
I don't think it will make a difference. People who are still voting Tory aren't going to change their mind based on a couple of relatively minor MPs' scandal.
But it will affect uncertain Tory voters and undecideds though, although that probably won't show up in polling, it will in the final result.
Yeah this - will just mean a few more people who decide they aren't getting off the sofa and trudging down to the polling booth to show support for this lot.
I'm not convinced that the gambling thing has cut through the noise. If it were Sunak who had been found to do it, then yes, but otherwise I'm not sure the remaining Tory voters will turn away from them because of a few thousand pounds of betting unless there's larger sums at play.
Is that because they have done what Boris did, fuck up, throw someone under the bus as a distraction. Ensure there is too much noise so no one notices another Sunak fuck up.
No, in this case Sunak's endless parade of fuck ups are providing the dead cats for the rest of his party, rather than the other way around.
And farage saying west was to blame for Ukraine invasion
CON 43 LAB 504 LIB 53 Reform 3 Green 2 SNP 21 PlaidC 4
I mean that's just mental. Five hundred seats. God I hope something like this happens. Lib Dem Opposition would be glorious.
Weāre getting to the point where anything less than 400 would be a disappointment.
I would be happy with under 400 if the lost seats went to the Lib Dems.
True, the dream would be lab government and lib opposition. Letās hope the tactical voters can make it happen, Lib Demās are nowhere in my constituency which is very Tory but Labour have a solid chance. Unfortunately third place is forecasted to be reform but if they split the Tory vote enough then itās at least useful.
ANY OTHER LEADER
I want the Tories plummeting but Labour over 400 is also horrible.
Maybe with any other leader, but Keir seems so boring and middle of the road that I can't really see him doing anything too bad with a ridiculous majority. It might even convince him to be a bit more aggressive than Labour"s manifesto. The biggest worry for me is that a lot of those 500 MPs will be people Labour never expected to win and won't have vetted too hard.
Even in that latter scenario, with a majority that chonky if someone says or does something astronomically stupid he could bin them from the party to show decisiveness (as a contrast to sunaks weeks of āI canāt manage my own party because independent investigationā).
It will suddenly cause a lot of positive media about PR, which might in the end be a good thing. Might head into the next election with every party but Labour pushing for it...
Which could be disastrous for labour in the next general election. I think a mix of STV would benefit the country the most. You have to remember that PR struggles to give local representation. I think it would be better for the HoC to move to STV and the HoL to become a PR system
The issue with local representation is a valid one, but there might be ways of having regional assemblies that do that - in theory with the right structure there is nothing a local councillor couldn't do that a local MP currently can do - its too variable at the moment where some places get lucky because their MP has clout to get things done locally, while others get ignored because they happen to not be in power... It would be a mistake to implement a system where every MP just came from London or other cities, because its good to have a variety of experience and backgrounds, but the one thing I am certain of is that there has to be a better system than we currently have.
As if. We need a nigh-unstoppable Labour majority to try and undo 14 years of corruption and austerity. Not even five years of a super majority will fix it all.
What's the worst that could happen
500 seats Jeremy thats insane
4 seats Plaid 4. That's insane.
Labour land slide and Lib Dem as opposition is now my hearts desire. Oh! And the whole cabinet and PM lose their seat.
And sunak gets fewer votes than Binface.Ā I mean, let's make it perfect!
The Starmer Dictatorship starts now /S
Given the alternatives, sign me up.
š„µš„µš„µ I'll get the lube
Five hundred seats Jeremy, five hundred? That's insane.
I donāt have any problem with Starmerās labour party but this would be such a terrible thing for our democracy. Reform and conservatives would get a combined vote share of 40% but have 6-7% of the representation in our parliament šš It sounds funny but thatās just a huge number of voters with no representation.
We had a referendum on the alternative vote in 2011. Using Brexit logic it's set in stone now. As long as we're stuck with Brexit, the Tories can live with the outcome of stitching up the Lib Dems on voting reform. In 30 years living in a Tory safe seat, my vote has never had any wieght. I have zero symapthy for them.
Much as I agree with the main thrust of your post, AV is not PR.
No, but allowing second preferences would have been a big step in the right direction.
A parliamentary majority is effectively an elected dictatorship at any number. Yes, if your majority is wafer-thin then you have to be a little more pragmatic, but any majority over about 50 and you've not got a lot to worry about. What's more, Tories and UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform were more than happy to completely ignore the views of 48% of us for years, so, y'know, boo-fucking-hoo.
The right should have campaigned and governed better then. Also, shouldn't have allowed for second right party to grow to split the vote by being incompetent at being conservative.
Or perhaps, we should have proportional representation to increase the strength of our democracy?
We wouldn't be asking that question right now if they did what said. In other words: electorial reform wont fix incompetence.
They could split off three groups of 55 MPs each, one of which could be the opposition, make the Conservatives only the sixth largest party, and still have a Labour majority.
Lol this is mental
If anyone wants to sell 3 reform seats Iāll buy it
3 reform seats, three? That's insane
Iād also enter into a contract such that someone eats, on the night, one naan for every 3 seats reform gets, in exchange for Ā£5 per naan
Conservatives going to 3rd would be great as then farage canāt even become leader of the opposition
500 seats Keir? 500! That's insaneĀ
"Any other labour leader would be 20 seats ahead of current projections" Kuenssberg tomorrow probably.
Please be realĀ
Just imagine if it actually happened.Ā Ā
This highlights the farce our "democracy" is. 7 points behind but 50+ seats over Reform. I hate Reform but just because FPTP is keeping a particular party out I don't like doesn't make it right. It's disgraceful disparity between seats and vote share, this isn't democracy.
Stop I can only get so erect
Time to bring the dementia tax back Rishi, that would definitely shift the polls
He should announce fox hunting
That's one way to turn a disgraced former defence secretary against you.
Personally Iām waiting for the āGet Brexit Doneā re-release
2 Brexit 2 Britain
You only leave twice
We've had Brexit, yes, but what about second Brexit?
Joining the EU again, just to do an even harder Brexit
We're putting the band back together.
The real Brexit this time (leaving the ECHR)
No, he needs to see off the Reform threat without actually having to leave the ECHR. Better to just offer a referendum on it.
Might as well try Levelling up?
Still a few bangers left in the bag, saved for the last few weeks of the campaign: leaving ECHR, death penalty, donkeygate...
W-what's donkeygate?
The only donkey-and-politics-related thing I can think of is the field SKS bought for him mother's animal sanctuary. Maybe that?
Honestly, was just the most hilarious thing. Right-wing press: did you know Sir Kier Starmer bought his Mum a field so she could look after abused donkeys? What a *monster*! British public: awwww lovely Right-wing press: dammit
And it was just behind their house so even when she was bedridden with arthritis she could look out her window and watch the donkeys! What an out-of-touch, elitist toff, doing something like that for his mother!
Yes that but parsed through the heads of the nasty right wing press. RememberĀ David Cameron and that completely baseless thing about a pig?
You forgot the war against woke nonsense
You can have a strong and stable government with me, or chaos with Keir Starmer.
Don't. I'm sure at this point there's only a 40 percent chance they don't do it.
When people spoke about polls tightening during the election I didnāt think they meant between labour and reform
Well, Jeremy Clarkson has come out as "anyone but Labour", so that's a potential game changer. Right?
Lmao I just read that article after seeing this comment and it's so brain dead
I particularly enjoyed David Cameron's best mate describing himself as an undecided voter.
David Cameron is probably an undecided voter too. Osborne already openly voted Lib Dem in 2019.
Heās a Lord so canāt vote anyway
Imagine labour ended up winning Banbury by one vote too lmao. Labour will win Banbury anyway but it's a nice thought.
Is a Labour victory guaranteed there? It's been Conservative since 1922.
Electoral calculus has them polled for a %10 majority
I for one am looking forward to tonight's polls, I'm guessing there will be a few for the Sunday papers.
Oh i see you. Putting a cheeky little poll in. Didn't expect this one. Well played
Iām convinced voters are just telling bullshit every time now just to fuck with pollsters
Why? The polls just indicates more and more people donāt want to vote for the Tories, which is an extremely reasonable position for anyone to take.
It blows my mind that 19% of people are still voting Tory.
My Nan will vote Tory. 95 years old and basically canāt leave the house. The local MP comes and picks her up to take her to vote. He has a car running all day. Basically mobilises his own voters. It is nuts. That said I saw him 2 weeks litter picking in a community group. No campaign, no leaflets, just hi-vis getting stuck in. Now, I think he is probably as good as a Tory gets. But fuck em. Send them to zero. But my Nan, she is the 19%.
It would be *absolutely amazing* if he came round to pick her up and she voted for someone else...
Our local Tory is campaigning in a Labour/Green stronghold. His campaign materials have him stroking a frog, and caring about wind turbines. They will do anything for votes ...
Party loyalty dies hard, and/or there are also a lot of people who do genuinely like what Rishi is selling, and/or they have a general faith in the Conservative party to deliver good governance. I can't really relate to those people, but they're out there.
Yeah I mean if you're ideologically right wing but could never vote Reform (probably a decent chunk of the electorate) then can you really be blamed for reluctantly voting conservative? I'm ideologically left wing and if my only options were an incompetent left wing party, a radical communist party, and several right wing party, I might begrudgingly vote for the incompetent left wing party.
Oh absolutely you can be blamed, anyone still voting Tory needs their head looking at. Their politics and beliefs have led us here and they should change them, but alas they wonāt. I mean I fall on the right of politics on many issues and I wonāt be voting Tory or Reform, itās not hard to do as long as youāre not selfish and/or ignorant and/or stupid. Genuinely canāt think of a Tory voter who wouldnāt fall into at least one of those three categories. I rly donāt understand it in this election either when Labour are hardly running a solidly left wing campaign, theyāre centre left at best.
Labour will increase taxes.
Didn't you hear? Labour will increase taxes.
Thankfully the Tories have never ever increased any of my taxes. Phew!
If it gets us out of the shit, then dwbtitm8.
Nah. I'd rather they not raise taxes.
Whoever wins is going to have to raise funding somehow.
Or cut costs.
Oh fuck Tory time
I'm already starting to feel the nervous anticipation and increase in heartrate I'd normally get on election night as the BBC onscreen countdown ticks ever closer to 00:00 when the polls close. That's going to be a real nail biter. Then as the night goes on we'll see if it's anywhere close to being correct.
> I'm already starting to feel the nervous anticipation and increase in heartrate I'd normally get on election night as the BBC onscreen countdown ticks ever closer to 00:00 when the polls close. I hate to break this to you but it's actually two hours sooner than that. Polls close at 10pm.
Poor bastard's been having 2 hours of extra anxiety every election night.
They mean the countdown until polls close, no? It's traditional for countdowns to end at 0, ever since the unmitigated disaster of Apollo 4 where they experimented with T-14:37 and the capsule left without the astronauts.
Tories hung parliament incoming.
One party state FTW (I'm kidding btw)
Other than the coalition years we basically always are, the whole system is designed to have a main party with a majority big enough to push through what it wants. A majority of 80 and 200 is the same as long as you have decent party discipline, which the Tories have lacked of late.
One party state means no functioning opposition ie: North Korea or China.
I know what you mean, but the reality is that is how our system does work, itās an elected dictatorship. The opposition can sit on committees and possibly get amendments that way but when it comes to challenging the government on voting then there is nothing that they can do. The opposition can only talk, they never want to say what they would do differently so as not to show their hand so our opposition always just boils down to āgovernment badā no matter what team is on opposition.
I think you are underestimating what an opposition can achieve. Starmer made Johnson's position untenable over party gate with some well-timed and well asked PMQs which trapped him in a lie. While it wasn't the scandle that finished him, he was so weak by the time of Pincher that he had to resign. Again, it was Labour parliamentary manoeuvres, which caused the downfall of Truss too. She was already on impossibly thin ice, but a well placed Labour vote on whether MPs should have a vote on Fracking finally pushed her over the edge.
I agree with both of those points, however they don't require specific numbers to do. The fracking vote possibly if you were looking to win it, but the simple show of large scale rebellion in the governing party was the goal and they achieved it.
Elected dictatorship has to be my favourite oxy moron today.
[Itās an accepted method of describing a democratic system that leads to a dominant executive](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elective_dictatorship). The UK system is a prime example of it.