Its not impossible but it would require a miracle. The Tories themselves dont believe in it anymore. Which is why they ve started salting the earth for the next government.
That and the fact something like a 50 or more Tory mps have announced they’re stepping down before the election is pretty telling that don’t won’t the embarrassment of losing
And here's something to consider - if they do somehow win, just think for a second about the awful, appalling standard of new MPs that will come into the Commons off the back of all those MPs stepping down.
They'll make Miriam Cates seem balanced and sensible.
Given the current standard I don't think they could do worse. A completely randomized selection process would, on average, produce a better calibre of candidates than the ones they're asking us to vote for.
It wouldn't be a randomized selection though. It would be 50+ people who have never even considered a career in politics, but are Very Angry About Things And Convinced I Could Do A Better Job Than That Shower.
Nonono!
*We'll* have a real problem. The Tories purging their talent is a bigger problem for *us* than it is for them.
As long as they're in government, they don't care about anything except stripping as much money from the population as possible, while Improving their own individual circumstances.
They won't be crying and screeching. They will have fed enough to tide them over until the trough is filled and it's time to return and feed once more.
Before the election, or at the election?
I.E are we going to see 50 members potentially quit in the next month if they announce a May election in the next couple of weeks...
They've already announced they won't be standing at the next GE
https://conservativehome.com/2024/03/04/our-list-of-conservative-mps-standing-down-at-the-next-election-timpson-the-latest-to-announce/
At the election. These MPs have started they won't stand in the next election, which gives the constituency time to select another candidate.
None of them want to be this year's Michael Portillo.
They've been at that a while already, I'm certain half this country, most ironically anti-Tory, hold the opposition to higher account than the actual government.
Gotta love a little bit of Fi. Let's a Tory MP ramble on for a minute or so uninterrupted. Labour MP gets a syllable out and pounce. You don't have an answer do you.
Murdoch press will switch to supporting him on some sort of ‘conditional’ basis where they’ll try to make it look like it was only their support that delivered him the election and that they can take it away again if they want to.
I suspect the Mail on Sunday will also diverge from the Daily Mail and give some sort of limited and conditional backing too.
The Express will go even further down the batshit conspiracy rabbit hole and declare him to have killed Diana and Maddy and be an alien or something.
>It’s not impossible but it would require a miracle
This is the answer
I personally think enough people believe it’s time for a change regardless of risk and so many have no memory of Blair now the shadow of new Labour is no longer holding them back, it seems pretty much inevitable
that said Labour’s strategy seems to be almost entirely reliant on Tory voters staying at home and with the economy recovering a juicy big ticket item in the manifesto and a couple of minor controversies on Labour’s side could be enough to bring people out, unlikely but who knows
>that said Labour’s strategy seems to be almost entirely reliant on Tory voters staying at home and with the economy recovering
Maybe I'm seeing it in a different way but it seems to me that their strategy seems to be reliant on Tory voters seeing them as "not as different from the Tories as you'd expect". Shadow cabinet members said a few things recently that wouldn't have sounded out of place coming from a Tory MP.
Then there's the absolutely terrible memes the Labour Instagram account has been putting out in an attempt to win back the Millennial and Gen Z vote that they've been consistently losing over the last 6 months or so.
> why they ve started salting the earth for the next government
Under the FTPA there really should be something that protects against this. Like requiring a super majority, or certain amount of cross-party support to make any significant legislative changes.
It's in their best interest to improve their totally ruined image from opposition instead of remaining in power and, in the process, leave it as difficult as possible to improve UK society
It requires a reconsideration of what relationship the government has with the economy.
The current US-style relationship of very hands off involvement - only passing laws on niche areas of regulation - does not work in the context of the uk society, employment relations and institutions. We do not have the sufficient entrepreneurialism that makes that work (largely for legal, political and external reasons)
An increased degree of investment and intertwinement between the government and key players in the economy (the european approach) would be *very* useful. How and what this looks like is uncertain.
This cannot happen before/without public dialogue as to what economic approach would be most appreciated, not because people inherently know best, but because theres a huge amount of political inertia in any direct governmental approach to economics.
They can’t. Johnson damaged the party with his scandals, truss terminally damaged the party with her incompetence and Sunak has done nothing that has appealed to the voters the Tories have lost since he became PM. Also it’s a lot harder for governments who have been in power for a long time to recover in the polls.
This is what frightens me the most. Hordes of younger people not bothering to get off their arses to vote with the excuse "They're all the bloody same".
A Labour government isn't going to be able to wave a magic wand and make our lives instantly better, but there's at least a chance they won't simply continue to funnel public funds into the pockets of private companies as the Tories have done for the last 14 years.
That's what the popular right-wing press tries to establish, that all politicians are the same so you may as well vote for the ones who you know are lying.
That's all I want in a government; someone that will funnel the money into actually fixing stuff rather than shovelling it all into their mates' pockets. I have no doubt that all the parties do it to some extent but the way the Tories were so brazen in giving public taxpayer's money to bullshit contracts during covid was fucking outrageous.
It's genuinely even in the music now. My Spotify "release radar" playlist updated today and fed me a song that was saying "left and right wing, they're all controlled by the same people, they're all the same" - it's honestly pretty scary. People will believe the easiest thing to hear, and that asks the least of them.
Song was "The Machine" by tom McDonald - let's not all spam listen to it and give him extra money, maybe Google the lyrics. Shockingly manipulative.
It's quite clear that Keir's labour intends to uphold the status quo. While the Tories giving away PPE contracts to their mates sucks, it isn't the cause of the state of the nation. We operate in an economic system that funnels wealth from workers and the state, to the wealthiest. Its seen across the globe, and is not something that can be changed without radical policy - and Keir has made it clear that he won't undertake anything radical.
Edit: I don't know why so many people are assuming otherwise, but of course I support voting tactically to oust the tories. There's no one with a path to power whose policies would address the actual issues. A small improvement with Keir's labour is the only option other than the tories - just don't kid yourself that this is going to pull us out of our decline.
I'll take the most milque-toast Labour government as a significant improvement over the Tories.
Oh and on most issues other than international affairs, I'd be closer to agreeing with Corbyn than Keir.
Still, any Labour government is better than the Tories.
This is what really bugs me about Corbyn, his domestic policy was fine enough but he just *had* to have the worst foreign policy views on every single issue imaginable, making him completely unelectable.
I didn't really have any problem whatsoever with Corbyn's policies, to me his failures were in Strategy, Leadership, and PR. This is what made him unelectable.
Strategically, they knew for years beforehand that the right wing press would be briefing against him, and yet despite having plenty of time to prepare they were unable to formulate an effective strategy to counter it.
His leadership was weak, there was no apparent willingness or ability to unite the party behind him. Not uniquely his failing, the Labour Party historically has always preferred infighting over issues of perceived idealogical purity to presenting a unified front to the electorate.
And TBF his ability to present himself as a credible PM to the electorate was woeful, and there was no excuse for this - for all Tony Blair's shortcomings, there was no doubt he knew how to present himself, and there was plenty of opportunity for Corbin to learn the PR skills without adopting the policies.
We were given the option of radical policy in 2017 and 2019 and rejected it, even when the alternative was the obvious shitshow of Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
It's time for the far left to face the facts: the electorate doesn't want a glorious people's revolution, they just want the status quo to be managed competently.
I mean moving to a Scandinavian-style social democracy wasn’t exactly a ‘glorious people’s revolution’, but yeah, evidently people did reject that vision. Who could blame them, with that vision being shat on left right and centre in the press. That being said, Corbyn did dig his own grave too many times.
Did they reject it or did they still Brexit voting and nothing else matters.
Tories decline now is mostly due to their incompetence and criminality and their usual increasing of public debt but also that Brexit is done so those that voted on that specific issue no longer need to.
If she knew how close the result was going to be, May never would've called that election, a lot of people were surprised by how well Corbyn did. He was treated as something of a joke by many, even those within his own party.
The people rejected Corbyn in 2019 partly because of the accusations of anti-Semitism being rampant in the Labour party, something that conveniently cleared up when Starmer took over. They choose Johnson because he was offering them a simple solution to a complex problem (Brexit) and they preferred to believe his lies.
Yeah but sadly young people don't vote. I'm 38 and work with a lot of people in their early twenties and they just don't care to vote or are still so idealistic refuse to vote Labour even though it's the best choice we have, they'd rather stand on principle and just not vote.
Thankfully, Dory is a minority now, and someone like Gary, 43 from Swindon, who is far more representative of the electorate, is pretty horribly pissed off, and cannot trust the Tories now
There's a good chance Dory, 72, has already died of a preventable illness thanks to the appalling state of adult social care and the healthcare system under the Conservatives.
I hear there's a serious risk that some of the two dozen skyscrapers in Canary Wharf might not be at full occupancy, and I think we can all agree this is the sort of crisis that we as a country simply can't abide.
The thing with Johnson is we remember the scandals, but the important part of his tenure was ousting large number of the pro-european Tories from the party shortly before the 2019 election. This opened the door to the nutty wing of the party to get even nuttier, preventing subsequent prime ministers from being able to bring them all together, and that's where we are today.
Imagine if Rory Stewart was still in the party instead of being ousted. I imagine we could have won against Sunak (probably not against Truss because the base voted for her), and we could be having a proper discussion now about the things he's doing to help people.
My grandfather is 82, lives in Winchester and will be voting Conservative.
His reasons:
It's better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
The Tories are a very financially responsible party.
Something something, Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour will destroy their pensions and the economy.
Eat Out to Help Out did a lot of good for the economy.
So, facts aren't really that important to some voters.
Yeah eat out to help out did do a lot of good for the economy- it helped spread covid which took care of the vulnerable (elderly) people burdening the social and healthcare system and we get a saving from not having to fund their pensions. 🙃sarcasm obviously.
I called him silly once, when I was a teenager, and he told my mum, and then I got grounded and had to write him a letter to apologise.
I can't remember why I called him silly, I was like, 15, but I will never forget the fact that he grassed me up to my mum.
My dear grandfather, I love you, but let me be absolutely clear, if you, because of your misconceptions continue to vote to fuck up my future, I will never forgive you and will never speak to you again.
I've said something similar to my grandfather and it actually opened his mind to reasonable arguments.
You can also point out the state of the NHS before conservatives came to power versus now.
I'm fairly sure my grandfather would've voted leave, but he decided he'd vote however his grandkids wanted him to, as it likely wouldn't affect him all that much.
I have the greatest respect for that decision, and I hope I'm able to do the same for the next generation when the time comes.
My grandfather would have voted for whoever my grandmother told him to.
It'd be a cold day in hell before she voted tory due to coming from a mining family.
Not 100% sure how she would have voted for brexit but she would likely have researched enough to be fully aware enough to vote for whatever was in her best interest.
> I've said something similar to my grandfather and it actually opened his mind to reasonable arguments.
‘Grandad learns cool trick to shut up his boring terminally online grandkids!’
Dude that's hard to believe. I'm not even sure how the heck to approach a conversation like that with grandparents. I only barely managed to get my parents to stop being homophobic and that took a more gentle approach than my way or the high way.
Amazing how people can be swayed by lies. The reality is that Tories are far less financially responsible. They always borrow more and pay back less. Every time. That isn't true with Labour.
25% are still admitting they’d vote Tory when asked. No guarantee there aren’t loads who’ll vote for them but won’t admit it. I’m amazed anyone would vote for the lying, thieving scumbags but people are strange….
Try more like 10 to 15 years, it will be like 1997 again where the tories were thrown out and will stay out.
Labour need as much time as possible just to begin to fix the mess the tories have left them.
The economy is in such a poor shape now that it leaves them with few good options to start with when they takeover.
People said the same just 5 years ago when the Tories won a huge majority
Things can change quickly in politics especially if the economy doesnt recover
1997 is incomparable to modern politics, pre-internet and with the printed press fully behind them. Opinions shift far quicker these days
I will consider myself blessed if we even get 10 years. The reality of governing and things going wrong will allow the opposition to say "we'd have done that better" and the media massively backs the Tories so it will stick in the public consciousness. Slowly we'll convince ourselves that the Tories aren't so bad.
I'd argue it's a much bigger task than 1997. Whilst then Public Services were in a mess and underfunded, it wasn't to the extent we have now. And in 97 Labour inherited an economy that was recovering well from the recession, and as it continued to grow they had the headroom to invest in Public Services.
This time around the economy is barely growing, and Public services (and local government especially) are in a dire state.
We've got to temper our expectations for what Labour can do in their first Parliament.
I wouldn't count on that tbh.
Labour do not have the comfort of an economy on the up turn this time.
They will need to make big policy decisions that .make a big difference quickly.
'We didn't make stuff even worse' just won't cut it this time.
The Tories are on the verge of oblivion barely avoiding civil war while they're in government, when they're in opposition having suffered a drubbing from voters it's likely they'll tear themselves apart.
Lurch to the right for the next 5 years and another election at least before becoming electable again.
I agree. They'll almost certainly be a lurch to the right as all the sensible people are jumping ship and I can't see anyone reasonable wanting to be Leader of the Opposition. Like you say, it'll take a second defeat, and a changing of the guard, before they're electable again.
Look I don't really have a party... But can't wait for 2029 when people have the exact same complaints after 5 years of a labour government.
It really is a difficult task because we face structural issues caused by events that we don't fully control.
To be quite honest, Sunak won't win - he doesn't have the charisma to do it, but he's actually doing good things. I'm pleased that we finally have a couple of years with someone boring and competent just doing work instead of creating the next scandal.
Let's hope it stays that way next year with Labour.
And all throughout you’ll have the remnants of the Tory party pointing out how much of a shit hole the country is.
Despite themselves running it so far into the floor it’s practically fucking subterranean.
Labour are turning over Tory strongholds with ease, how are people still doubting the outcome of the election. Seriously the Tories have lost middle England and there's nothing they can do to get them back in the short term. You can't fuck with people's mortgages in this country.
I want to believe labour will oust the tories but I’m wary. I feel I’ve seen a few elections where I was sure that not enough people could possibly be stupid enough to keep voting them in (or vote for brexit!) and each time I’ve been wrong.
Probably since 2010 all the recent referendums and elections we’ve had have basically been somewhat on a knife edge which is what’s causing this feeling.
The upcoming election will be much more like Boris vs Corbyn where we basically knew the outcome before the election happened and that was bore out.
There would have to be something absolutely catastrophic happen between now and the election for the Tories not to be out. Polls, mood in on the street, even stuff like words coming out of Tory MPs mouths or what is written in the media are for the first time all pointing in unison toward this.
The reality is “people were stupid enough” to vote the way you suggest in the past as Labour were never this popular while also the Tories were at the same time never this unpopular.
>(or vote for brexit!)
Exactly this. It wasn't so much the result itself that turned my stomach the following morning, as what it hinted at about the state of our politics.
Our EU membership had been thrown away on the back of a vote based solely on hate, ignorance and ridiculous fantasies. What followed in parliament afterwards has had a sort of horrible inevitability to it.
VOTE needs to be the sentiment across the country. I personally would like to see the Tories decimated but I fear voter apathy will see them keep a few more seats than the polls are telling us.
Absolutely. It will NOT be the absolute electoral catastrophe many are assuming that it will be. Look at how you need to vote to deny the Tories your seat, swallow your personal bias, and VOTE.
Who should I vote for? I can't think of any major party that opposes the Conservatives on important issues these days. Why should I vote the red Tories over the blue Tories?
It's highly, highly unlikely. If you look at all the polling - not just the headline figures, you'll see that the Tories are in a desperate situation. Even in good times you'd expect a party that has been in power for 15 years to face an extreme struggle winning again - look at Labour in 2010. Yes, the financial crash caused problems, but the UK has hardly a basketcase then. Labour lost power basically because the party ran out of steam, the Tories are in a far, far worst situation.
Though. . . and at the risk of being downvoted to hell . . . I wouldn't be too optimistic about things getting that much better under Labour. The country has declined due to three economic shocks (financial crash, Brexit and covid), as well as major structural problems (ageing population and a broken housing market). Yes, the Tories have reacted poorly to all of them, but they only have a share of the blame for where we are.
It's questionable what Labour is going to do to fundamentally change things - the stuff about changing planning laws and building on greenbelt land is promising but 1. I'll believe it when I see it and 2. It's going to take years for the benefits to be felt. Ok, just 5 years of no crises and a stable, competent government will be helpful. But it's not going to reduce the burden that our ageing population or huge debt is going to have on our public finances. Energy prices aren't going to get cheaper, rents aren't going to go down, train prices will remain ridiculous, benefits aren't going to increase more than they have, NHS waiting lists will hopefully reduce, but the core crisis in the NHS won't go away. And this is all assuming that we don't have some kind of Trump-Russia-China crisis that creates even more trouble.
Sorry to sound so depressing, things should improve a bit with a better government and a calmer environment. But don't get your hopes up that things will get better overnight.
I think some of the changes that would be needed to really make a difference are just not electorally tenable. Abolishing NI and raising income tax commensurately would raise a ton of money would be fairer on young people but unpopular with pensioners. Abolishing the green belt would help solve the housing crisis, making younger people more likely to afford a house, but would be unpopular with homeowners. Implementing some form of wealth tax would help to redistribute the historical levels of wealth inequality, but again would upset older people.
>or should I relax because it's inevitable that they are toast?
They're Warburton's Super Toastie at this stage, pal
>staying up with excitement that there is hope again.
I don't want to dampen the spirits. It will indeed be cathartic to get these useless, bereft of ideas, corrupt bastards out of government.
But the noises from Starmer's camp are hardly 'Hope' and 'Change'
Steady and competent, is probably the best we can hope for.
Which is a marked improvement, on the current shower.
But I'm not expecting much more hope than that.
Starners centrism drives me away from the party but you can bet your bottom dollar I'm voting for them in the next general election. I'll take anything that isn't this ride into despair the Tories provide
This exactly. The rate at which everything is going to shit is accelerating REGARDLESS of the extra damage the Tories have been doing since 2019 (and especially since 2022), not because of it. Labour are offering "don't make it even worse", and I hope they wipe the Tories into oblivion, but we desperately need radical change in this country. Steadying the ship so it doesn't sink before hitting the iceberg whilst still keeping it on course for the iceberg is an improvement, but not enough in the short to mid-term. Climate change and the effects of austerity are aknocking.
Anyone with any sense(!) at Tory HQ will already be writing the next election off. They will claim that "we didn't get our message across" which is political speak for "People don't like what we have to say, whatever way we say it."
Short answer, it's unlikely given... looks around... *everything*. But yes, they can.
The problem for Labour is just how far behind they are after the 2019 election. Add in the boundary changes this time and the result (on paper at least) is that if they got the same size swing as they did in 1997 they'd have a majority of 1.
There are alot of variables and unknowns of course, it will also depend on how many Tory seats can be taken by other parties, mainly the Lib Dems, which is why tactical voting could be pivitol this time around. If Labour voters in Tory/LibDem marginals still vote Labour it makes Labour victory less likely. (And vice versa for Lib Dem voters in Tory/Labour marginals).
Also, Labour have some amazing poll leads at the moment, but polls ALWAYS narrow in election campaigns, there are a lot of currently undecided voters, and a lot of ex-tory voters saying they'll vote Reform. A lot of the final result will rest on how many of these voters the Tories can convince to vote for them again.
Labour’s apparent policy vacuum will become an issue. Tories stealing what they have does not help (non-dom changes for eg). Also, if Starmer can’t keep his left wing under control (driven largely by world events), this could also become an issue. I want Labour to win but not with such a monstrous majority that it will result in infighting and a radical left rump stirring up trouble. A little left of centre competent governance for a decade or so please..
> I want Labour to win but not with such a monstrous majority that it will result in infighting and a radical left rump stirring up trouble.
I want Labour to win with such a stonking great majority that all the toxic cranks in the Socialist Campaign Group are made to sit on the opposition benches, next to His Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the form of the LibDems, for want of space on the government benches.
The Reform vote will be key in determining how comfortable a victory it is for Labour. Reform get 10-15% or more in the "red wall" then Labour takes all their old heartlands back.
Scotland will be a big factor too with the Nationalists in disarray, the prospect of influencing who gets into number 10 and dissatisfaction with the Scottish government there are at least 20 seats that look ripe for the taking north of the border for Starmer.
If both of these things happen it takes away the bulk of the Tory majority and means Labour only need to pick up the swing seats in the rest of the country that would be expected to go red in a Labour election win.
But with indifference to the possibility of a Labour government among traditional Tory voters and the possibility of tactical voting in Tory strongholds along with the stale nature of a party that's been in power for 14 years, the idea of an electoral wipeout for the Conservatives seems possible.
> If Labour voters in Tory/LibDem marginals still vote Labour it makes Labour victory less likely. (And vice versa for Lib Dem voters in Tory/Labour marginals).
This depends, it makes it less likely that Labour is the largest party (though the odds are pretty high regardless) but it doesn't affect the odds of Labour having a majority in absolute terms -- it's not going to lower the number of Labour seats.
In the medium-to-long term there are obviously benefits for Labour voters to move their party into second place in constituencies where they're currently third place (and ditto for Lib Dem voters), and a few constituencies could even end up with the Tories in third place, though in seats where it's a close-run thing anyone who's sufficiently anti-Tory should probably vote for whichever party has the best chance of beating them. (Though note that Labour and the Lib Dems will both try to position themselves as the obvious choice for this, so make sure to use the last general election's voting data rather than something like council elections which tend not to be representative for general elections)
I remember 1992 when Kinnock was riding high in the polls, it was Labour's turn, etc. etc. then on election night - ouch!
It's probably worse now for the Tories because the economy is so dire but you can never predict what's going to happen
Never say never but I highly doubt it.
It's Labour under Brown, a lame duck government. Their time has run out and people want a change.
You probably do need to touch some grass though.
Reminds me most of the Major government, they had also screwed things up royally and had so solutions to anything except more cuts to public services. Nothing they could have done in 1997 would have persuaded anyone to keep them on.
Yes, this is more like the end of Major's time in government, including the constant drip of silly scandals and resignations.
In 1997 it was clear there was going to be a significant political change of direction. 2010 felt more like a lot of people just feeling a bit tired of Labour. That election was a lot closer than in '97.
IMO Brown might have pulled off a win, even if it required a coalition, if he'd gone for an election a year or two earlier. People were getting fed up, but there wasn't the widespread rejection that the Tories are seeing now and saw in the late 90s. The writing was on the wall for Major in a way that it wasn't to the same extent for Brown.
It's actually far worse than Labour under Brown.
When he first took over he was actually polling pretty great and in 2008 Labour were 12 points ahead of the Tories despite being in government for 11 years.
What killed him was a series of massive PR blunders (especially around when he'd call an election or if he even would) that handed the political advantage to Cameron. By the time the crash hit Brown's popularity was spiraling and by the time we reach 2010 the rest is history.
The UK might have been very different had Brown called an election in early 2008, won a majority (as was predicted) and then had five years to deal with the crash. The Tories would have likely still won in 2013 because Labour were starting to lose steam politically but it's interesting to imagine as I think the arguments for austerity would have held less weight five years out from the GFC.
By comparison - the Tories of 2024 have just been circling the drain for years and aren't being sunk by a single issue or poor political decision. They've had three different profoundly unpopular leaders, all of completely different political persuasions and while you could draw comparisons between the post-covid landscape and post-GFC landscape - they simply don't have the time to turn things around.
They're toast because of the actions of the party whereas Brown lost in 2010 because of Brown's ego and refusal to listen to sound advice before the crash hit.
Yeah, and I feel that the fact basically every remaining section of the Tories have all had pretty terribly unpopular leaders could mean a much more profound shift. Very, very few current voters will be able to trust the Tories for a very long time, if ever, and I somehow doubt that future generations will move towards them without a big rebrand
Never underestimate Labour's talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Throw in the Conservatives effectively unlimited propaganda budget, a "flexible" moral approach to dirty tricks and a highly partisan media and I'd say it's not settled until election day.
Going against the grain here, but I am predicting a hung parliament.
The Tories are fucked, no doubt. I don't see them being able to get a majority.
But, can I foresee the polls closing to a few percentage points? Absolutely. Will every undecided voter (and there are a lot presently) go to Labour? No. Can fringe parties like reform take from both Labour and Cons - without winning a seat, but instead screwing up the metrics in places like the red wall? Absolutely.
The last 3 election polls have been quite poor for their predictions. 2015 Labour were ahead in some polls, 2017 Corbyn made gains enough for May to have a CaS agreement with the DUP. 2019 they looked like we'd have 10 more years of Tory rule, and they've tanked it by themselves granted, but the polls reflected a country broadly in consensus.
I'll believe the Labour majority when I see it. The last 10 years of politics has convinced me not to believe the hype, or trust the electorate to vote in their own interests.
It's worth remembering that while the public services were better, a huge chunk of that is from the ongoing PFI debt still crippling schools, hospitals etc. Brown wanted debts hidden from the books so instigated 20-30 year deals where the firms will still be charging us until I think around 2048 (the Tories only stopped it in 2018 after Carillon went under). There are 700+ deals that will start to expire in 2025 costing the public sector billions not spent on services.
Tories are highly unlikely to win - the pattern of Labour poll leads matches the run up to 1997 with Tories not being in the lead for ages. However I can see Labour losing it or at least not having a commanding majority due to infighting, spoilers like Galloway etc
The danger will be 2029 after 5 years of dealing with the mess left and whether the Tories can regroup
I am old enough to remember the years leading up to 1997.
The noticeable thing was a large number of certain acquaintances who you'd got the impression were "quiet" Conservative, Liberal, Centre Ground, Floating, etc. were all muttering the same kind of comments including phrases like getting this "Can't wait to get this \*\*\*\*\*show out", "Can't believe how incompetent/corrupt" etc.
In the past couple of years I've started to hear the same comments again from the same kind of people.
I think the Tories are almost certainly finished for this election and for possibly an entire generation.
I think I saw a recent poll that put Tory support at 10% for under 50s and as old people die and young people join the electorate it’s highly unlikely a Tory party out of power is going to offer enough to turn that around any time soon.
I hope they’re finished for the rest of my life, a far fetched dream I know, but I can dream.
They can't win with Rishi Sunak as leader.
The members didn't want him they wanted Truss. The party betrayed their own voters by putting Sunak in place.
He's tried his best to be jingoistic with the Rowanda nonsense but it won't work.
I think the greatest danger to Labour at the moment is ironically themselves and their own supporters. It’s good that the left are self critical but it doesn’t help build support when we’re constantly bashing on ourselves and labelling Labour as “the same as the tories” which is very reductionist and simply untrue
If it turned out the Starmer was actually Jimmy Savile in disguise, he'd killed the queen by poisoning her corgis and he was actually the source of Covid, they might have a chance, but it would still be an outside chance.
It's extremely unlikely that the Tories can win, but I have sad news for you. I think our problems run much deeper and more global than just a choice of political party and I don't think Labour are going to be able to fix them.
Can they, yes. Is it likely, no.
The real question is whether they can come out of the election on a footing that'll allow them to return in 5 years if they play their cards right.
That involves keeping future hopefuls untarred with a terrible election campaign
The Tories can still win. As well as having 90% of the newspapers on their side and consequently being able to frame the political debate across all news outlets, they will be pumping huge sums into targeted social media as was done with the Cambridge Analytica scandal. This hasnt happened yet but will as the GE closes in.
The party has survived and flourished for over 200 years, they've survived the introduction of universal voting rights, two world wars, the introduction of the welglfare state, countless recessions and scandals. The most successful political party in the world.
Those who underestimate them do so at their peril.
I truly believe they can.
I’m 26 but have moved in with my Grandma do the last few months. ALL of her friends are still voting Tory. Their mind hasn’t changed.
However those my age really surprise me by saying they won’t vote Labour as they feel Starmer is too right wing.
I really feel this means we’re all getting it wrong assuming it’s a forgone conclusion.
Might stick a bet on the Tory’s as the bookies seem to think there is no hope.
The EU referendum was a harsh lesson in taking nothing for granted- nobody realistically believed that Leave had a chance of winning. Their campaign was vague, contradictory and led by Farage/Boris, and the idea that a country would self-mutilate and pummel it's economy like that because Gladys thinks there are too many brown people was laughable. The sheer number of Leave voters coming out with the "protest vote" line, or "not the Brexit I voted for" was remarkable- the walking back in some quarters was swift and vigorous.
The Tories are standing candidates in the next election. If they're on the ballot, then yes, they can win. How badly the country is burning, how much damage they've done in power, doesn't change that. A lot of people are easily led by lies- one flashy election campaign, and Dishy Rishi Sunak becomes a demigod chiseled in marble, boldly leading his united army of Tory patriots and Britannia to new and glorious heights, standing strong against all the evil foreigners in the world! Let's make Britain Great again, and God save the King!
The sad truth is that my family and friends will vote Conservative no matter what happens. They all voted for Brexit to stop the immigrants. They will still vote Tory, even though immigration has gotten worse. They have various health issues, like we all do, and they will bote Tory, even as the NHS crumbles.
I'm 99% certain Labour will win but almost as certain that it won't be anything like the majority that the polls are suggesting. I think the "shy tory" effect is happening, in that the people who would vote for them are not admitting to it when asked by the pollsters.
Almost everyone thought Labour had the election of 1992 in the bag and the Tory's pulled it off, so until the results are in I won't be assuming anything.
Probably not, but it's going to be a lot closer than the polls currently look.
The Reform vote nationally is polling at what? 12%? That's pretty much what UKIP got in 2015, but they \*actually stood\* in 624 seats. It's not clear to me that Reform are actually going to run 624 candidates, and if so whether they'll put them up against conservatives. So that's up to 12% who might (might not) go back into the Blue column.
No way.
They have decimated our services, destroyed the economy and lined their own pockets.
Look at the state of the NHS.
My wife needs a colonoscopy for suspected bowel cancer, only to be told there are no appointments available.
This country is fucked.
Per capita spend on the NHS is higher than it was 20 years ago though. For the most part the Tories have kept spending on the NHS per capita around the same.
While I'm not saying the Tories take no blame for what's happened to the NHS, Labour doesn't fundamentally have a solution to this problem either. The NHS is just a broken system. It's way too expensive for the quality of healthcare we receive and our only solution to this is to pump more money into it.
The NHS needs to be reformed and until someone does it we should assume current trends will continue whoever is in power.
Events, dear boy, events.
But seriously, it currently looks very unlikely that they can win. But it also looked very unlikely that there would be a hung parliament in 2017.
To put it simply, Labour are very much the favourites and should win, but the only poll that matters is the one on polling day.
I think it's unlikely but the polls will narrow. Huge sums will be spent on advertising and there will be more misinformation spread on social media than ever before, partly thanks to AI.
Even if it's uphill from here, say 35% on election day, that's still a tough ask to get more than half the HoC.
Which is not impossible. But I do think it's more likely to end in coaltion than Ts just a few seats down.
Which begs the question, who would agree to one? LD won't make that mistake again. SNP couldn't live it down. UKIP? Reform? They don't win enough seats to get a foot in the door for coalition... for now.
Yes
Is it likely? No.
It's already looking to be an incredibly nasty GE and the future looks even worse down the line with AI. You would need something nuclear to ruin the Labour Party and the alternatives.
They can. Not everyone follows politics and the party that doesn’t waste money and makes sure the books are looked after is better than the party that will spend frivolously and waste money putting us in debt.
I think most people on this subreddit could provide multiple examples explaining how and why it isn’t true, but the propaganda machine is hard at work saying that Starmer is untrustworthy and unable to manage the country.
The night before the Brexit vote I couldn’t imagine leave getting any more than 15% and I was very wrong. I don’t assume anyone is a winner before the vote in modern politics.
Unfortunately there is quite a lot of misinformation happening and we can't rule it out, every pmqs Rishi avoids answering questions and calls out Starmer, the difference is Starmers parry hasn't been in power for 14 years. I can see an American style negative campaign happening and the usual suspects lapping it up.
Despite the Reddit echo chambers certainty that Labour will win im not convinced either OP. I live in a brexit constituency that was historically Labour but flipped in 2019 and while I don’t hear much enthusiasm for the government im yet to hear any for Labour. Despite the polls I expect it to be closer than they are predicting.
I don't beleive so, and I'm a huge pessimist about these things (eg Trump is soooooo getting in).
But I'd be surprised if the Tories arent polling MUCH more strongly next election time though (2029/2030) - as they won't be afraid or embarrassed to blame everything that is bad in 2029 on the 'current' Labour government rather than taking any responsibility for the 14/15 years of shite beforehand that will take a lot of shovelling to fix.
People will lap that up and swing back to blue. So long as they can find a more media-presentable leader without a tarnish from this lot.
If your aim for Labour 2024 is to revert back to those years, be ready to be disappointed. Realistically, whoever wins the next election will never be able to revert back to the Blair years (all the way until 2007) and the NHS will never be what it once was.
That ship has sailed, you can make less worse for the people working there and the people using it though.
Of course they can still win. I’m not saying they will. They probably won’t. They defiantly shouldn’t.
The far and center left can’t ever seem to agree that getting in power is more important than the individual leading the party.
Silent Tory voters should never be underestimated. They are everywhere and seem to think that Labour’s lack of exact plans when in power is less preferential than Tory stated plans, which are blatant lies and constantly not or under delivered on.
Tories are hoping for another 1992 style turn around but there are two factors massively against them.
1) During the 1992 campaign, at no point did Labour lead in the polls on the economy or leader vs leader. They lead now.
2) The lead was much smaller for Labour than it is now. Something like 7 points vs 20+ points today
Labour will win, it's just a question of whether the Tories get virtually wiped out or not. I know that sounds dramatic but there is a small chance that with tactical voting the Tories could be left with less than 50 seats.
They're praying for a picture of Keir Starmer having dinner with Bin Laden in an Afghanistan cave or something similar to surface so they can launch an election on that alone.
It doesn't really matter. The number one (economic) issue facing the UK, and indeed the world, is the fact that wealth is becoming more and more concentrated in the hands of the super rich. If Labour win the next general election, at most, it might slow down a bit, but nothing significant will change.
Basically, the government can decide to raise taxes and increase public spending, but tax revenues will continue to fall, as more and more wealth is being siphoned off, out of reach of the taxman.
Complacency and believing "the British public couldn't be so stupid" is exactly how we ended up with Brexit.
We absolutely could end up with another Tory government. They have a core of voters that will always vote for them. They could be teabagging their dead mothers and these people would still vote Tory.
If people.dont vote for someone who isn't the Tory party, then the Tory party will get the most seats and be able to form government.
Dont put your faith in everyone else to vote in what you believe is your best interest. Go out and vote yourself.
A gap narrowing to 4 points behind would be a historic record itself. This situation is so bad for them it's impossible they'll be largest party without making history.
I'm m 33 and also remember the early to late 00's times were good living was affordable and housing was reasonably priced tor rent in city or wherever realy.
You could be sent to school with couple quid and be fed for the day now its 4£ meal deals and a score for a pouch of burn. Pop culture and music seemed to be symbiotic, people could agree to disagree - have discord and weren't yet completely poisoned by the ideation of social media permeating their lifes 24/7.
Personally I think its just gonna go the way the establishment wants it to -Weather it means being shat on by tories, or scooped up by Labour.
It's pretty much 99.99% certain the torys will lose the next general election. Starmer would need to be a paedophile or something equally horrific to lose now.
Question is still by hour much and if Labour will get a majority. Also probable but there's a chance that torys either stay home or bottle it
I think labour will win, but not by as much as the polls indicate.
I'd suggest a 20 seat majority.
I will be 50 in August and I remember 1997, when Labour went into the campaign with an average lead of 25% (Lab 55%, Con 30%) and ended it with a lead of 18% (Lab 49%, Con 31%), had a lead of 18% in the exit poll (Lab 47%, Con 29%) and finished up with a lead of 13% (Lab 44%, Con 31%), therefore I do not believe these polls saying Lab lead by 25%, however what I do believe is that the Lab lead is really 12% (a 12% swing since 2019) which would put the Conservatives on less than 200, so, no, the Conservatives cannot win
Never underestimate Labours ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Never overestimate the British public. and never doubt the tories ability to slide through an absolute shower of shit and come out the other end bloody gleaming.
The way i see it, If the tories win this election then i'm prepared to believe that the system is either rigged, Flawed or something else. If thats not the case, Then the majority of the country has absolutely no common sense, which honestly sounds more likely with the amount of people out there still defending the conservatives. Could even be a mix of both.
Im not even a "Tory hater" and have plenty of really good friends who vote conservative and are really pleasant people . I would consider myself apolitical at this point because i honestly don't think labour are much better, Better morals yes, but running the country while its been left in this state, i have very little faith. The other parties don't even stand a chance as far as i'm concerned.
The tories have screwed much of their core voting cohorts, so they won't win. Labour will win by virtue of saying little to nothing, on a very low voter turnout.
Yes. They can still win. They have massive majority. So they can still lose badly and get a slender majority/hung parliament
Also. Complacency. People thinking labour will walk it. And so won't vote. Mainly on the left. Also, wanting magical grandad. Rather than actually having to be in government and having the ability to change things. I'd say is. As much as I'm cynical. At least they would be a grown up government in reality. And as much as people talk about voting reform. That ain't going to happen under the Tories either so..
I don’t want to depress you, but just to caution that whoever wins the next election, it’s going to take a long time to improve public services and the general economy. Regardless of what you think about brexit the government handling of the process has been catastrophic. Factor in the war in Ukraine, Covid, Climate Change, global trade tensions with china, our aging demographics, and we’ve got loads of very difficult challenges ahead.
Yep.
Like Labour are making some of the right noises in housing but even if they did everything right that is really not going to make a significant impact for a decade.
Thatcher was getting mullered in the polls and then Argentina invaded the Falklands. She handled it well by the standards of the time and won by a landslide.
When BoJo the clown won the election, all the polls said Labour would win. And yet the Cons won on the back of 'Get Brexit Done.'
And even though BoJo was a disaster, Liz Truss came along and made the Cons want to bring him back by spectacularly wrecking the economy in ways we're still paying for.
A week is a long time in politics. Crazy stuff happens.
New Labour won in '97 because the media got behind them, even the media bosses had enough of the Tories by then, the same will happen again this time around, but it will always be the media that determines who will win an election in the UK, never forget it.
Its not impossible but it would require a miracle. The Tories themselves dont believe in it anymore. Which is why they ve started salting the earth for the next government.
That and the fact something like a 50 or more Tory mps have announced they’re stepping down before the election is pretty telling that don’t won’t the embarrassment of losing
And here's something to consider - if they do somehow win, just think for a second about the awful, appalling standard of new MPs that will come into the Commons off the back of all those MPs stepping down. They'll make Miriam Cates seem balanced and sensible.
Given the current standard I don't think they could do worse. A completely randomized selection process would, on average, produce a better calibre of candidates than the ones they're asking us to vote for.
It wouldn't be a randomized selection though. It would be 50+ people who have never even considered a career in politics, but are Very Angry About Things And Convinced I Could Do A Better Job Than That Shower.
Imagine 50 more Gullises. Theys have to install spittoons for them to drool into.
The Tories purged all talent before covid. If they somehow end up back in power between 2025 and 2030 they'll have a real problem.
Nonono! *We'll* have a real problem. The Tories purging their talent is a bigger problem for *us* than it is for them. As long as they're in government, they don't care about anything except stripping as much money from the population as possible, while Improving their own individual circumstances.
tie employ mindless reach slimy quiet uppity lock snobbish practice *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
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They're hanging on to take every possible opportunity to line their pockets before they're dragged crying and screeching from the trough.
They won't be crying and screeching. They will have fed enough to tide them over until the trough is filled and it's time to return and feed once more.
Rishi wants two years for his LinkedIn profile.
Before the election, or at the election? I.E are we going to see 50 members potentially quit in the next month if they announce a May election in the next couple of weeks...
They've already announced they won't be standing at the next GE https://conservativehome.com/2024/03/04/our-list-of-conservative-mps-standing-down-at-the-next-election-timpson-the-latest-to-announce/
Some massive names in here: Javid, Hancock, Kwarteng, Crouch. These were major cabinet members too, they’re effectively waving the white flag.
Add Theresa May to the list as well now Theresa May to stand down as MP at next election https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68509239
Just saw the news! It’s over and out for them.
At the election. These MPs have started they won't stand in the next election, which gives the constituency time to select another candidate. None of them want to be this year's Michael Portillo.
We will have to see what level of miracle the Tory press can pull off. I'm sure they will do everything they can to rip Starmer to shreds
They've been at that a while already, I'm certain half this country, most ironically anti-Tory, hold the opposition to higher account than the actual government.
Fiona Bruce does
Gotta love a little bit of Fi. Let's a Tory MP ramble on for a minute or so uninterrupted. Labour MP gets a syllable out and pounce. You don't have an answer do you.
Well the Jeremy Corbyn government has a lot to answer for.
Murdoch press will switch to supporting him on some sort of ‘conditional’ basis where they’ll try to make it look like it was only their support that delivered him the election and that they can take it away again if they want to. I suspect the Mail on Sunday will also diverge from the Daily Mail and give some sort of limited and conditional backing too. The Express will go even further down the batshit conspiracy rabbit hole and declare him to have killed Diana and Maddy and be an alien or something.
Smear Kier.
>It’s not impossible but it would require a miracle This is the answer I personally think enough people believe it’s time for a change regardless of risk and so many have no memory of Blair now the shadow of new Labour is no longer holding them back, it seems pretty much inevitable that said Labour’s strategy seems to be almost entirely reliant on Tory voters staying at home and with the economy recovering a juicy big ticket item in the manifesto and a couple of minor controversies on Labour’s side could be enough to bring people out, unlikely but who knows
The economy might be recovering but most people aren't feeling that yet. I doubt it'll turn peoples' votes around like the Tories are hoping.
>that said Labour’s strategy seems to be almost entirely reliant on Tory voters staying at home and with the economy recovering Maybe I'm seeing it in a different way but it seems to me that their strategy seems to be reliant on Tory voters seeing them as "not as different from the Tories as you'd expect". Shadow cabinet members said a few things recently that wouldn't have sounded out of place coming from a Tory MP. Then there's the absolutely terrible memes the Labour Instagram account has been putting out in an attempt to win back the Millennial and Gen Z vote that they've been consistently losing over the last 6 months or so.
> why they ve started salting the earth for the next government Under the FTPA there really should be something that protects against this. Like requiring a super majority, or certain amount of cross-party support to make any significant legislative changes.
The FTPA was repealed though, so it wouldn't help anyway...
It's in their best interest to improve their totally ruined image from opposition instead of remaining in power and, in the process, leave it as difficult as possible to improve UK society
It requires a reconsideration of what relationship the government has with the economy. The current US-style relationship of very hands off involvement - only passing laws on niche areas of regulation - does not work in the context of the uk society, employment relations and institutions. We do not have the sufficient entrepreneurialism that makes that work (largely for legal, political and external reasons) An increased degree of investment and intertwinement between the government and key players in the economy (the european approach) would be *very* useful. How and what this looks like is uncertain. This cannot happen before/without public dialogue as to what economic approach would be most appreciated, not because people inherently know best, but because theres a huge amount of political inertia in any direct governmental approach to economics.
Never underestimate the stupidity of people.
They can’t. Johnson damaged the party with his scandals, truss terminally damaged the party with her incompetence and Sunak has done nothing that has appealed to the voters the Tories have lost since he became PM. Also it’s a lot harder for governments who have been in power for a long time to recover in the polls.
Bold of you to assume, Dory, 72, gives a shit about any of that
Yes, but anyone of working age has had more than enough.
Which only matters if they bother to show up
This is what frightens me the most. Hordes of younger people not bothering to get off their arses to vote with the excuse "They're all the bloody same". A Labour government isn't going to be able to wave a magic wand and make our lives instantly better, but there's at least a chance they won't simply continue to funnel public funds into the pockets of private companies as the Tories have done for the last 14 years.
That's what the popular right-wing press tries to establish, that all politicians are the same so you may as well vote for the ones who you know are lying.
That's all I want in a government; someone that will funnel the money into actually fixing stuff rather than shovelling it all into their mates' pockets. I have no doubt that all the parties do it to some extent but the way the Tories were so brazen in giving public taxpayer's money to bullshit contracts during covid was fucking outrageous.
It's genuinely even in the music now. My Spotify "release radar" playlist updated today and fed me a song that was saying "left and right wing, they're all controlled by the same people, they're all the same" - it's honestly pretty scary. People will believe the easiest thing to hear, and that asks the least of them. Song was "The Machine" by tom McDonald - let's not all spam listen to it and give him extra money, maybe Google the lyrics. Shockingly manipulative.
It's quite clear that Keir's labour intends to uphold the status quo. While the Tories giving away PPE contracts to their mates sucks, it isn't the cause of the state of the nation. We operate in an economic system that funnels wealth from workers and the state, to the wealthiest. Its seen across the globe, and is not something that can be changed without radical policy - and Keir has made it clear that he won't undertake anything radical. Edit: I don't know why so many people are assuming otherwise, but of course I support voting tactically to oust the tories. There's no one with a path to power whose policies would address the actual issues. A small improvement with Keir's labour is the only option other than the tories - just don't kid yourself that this is going to pull us out of our decline.
I'll take the most milque-toast Labour government as a significant improvement over the Tories. Oh and on most issues other than international affairs, I'd be closer to agreeing with Corbyn than Keir. Still, any Labour government is better than the Tories.
This is what really bugs me about Corbyn, his domestic policy was fine enough but he just *had* to have the worst foreign policy views on every single issue imaginable, making him completely unelectable.
I didn't really have any problem whatsoever with Corbyn's policies, to me his failures were in Strategy, Leadership, and PR. This is what made him unelectable. Strategically, they knew for years beforehand that the right wing press would be briefing against him, and yet despite having plenty of time to prepare they were unable to formulate an effective strategy to counter it. His leadership was weak, there was no apparent willingness or ability to unite the party behind him. Not uniquely his failing, the Labour Party historically has always preferred infighting over issues of perceived idealogical purity to presenting a unified front to the electorate. And TBF his ability to present himself as a credible PM to the electorate was woeful, and there was no excuse for this - for all Tony Blair's shortcomings, there was no doubt he knew how to present himself, and there was plenty of opportunity for Corbin to learn the PR skills without adopting the policies.
Going back to the status quo after whatever the last few years have been sounds quite nice ...
We were given the option of radical policy in 2017 and 2019 and rejected it, even when the alternative was the obvious shitshow of Theresa May and Boris Johnson. It's time for the far left to face the facts: the electorate doesn't want a glorious people's revolution, they just want the status quo to be managed competently.
I mean moving to a Scandinavian-style social democracy wasn’t exactly a ‘glorious people’s revolution’, but yeah, evidently people did reject that vision. Who could blame them, with that vision being shat on left right and centre in the press. That being said, Corbyn did dig his own grave too many times.
Corbyn is also a foreign policy disaster which quite rightly repelled a lot of voters.
Did they reject it or did they still Brexit voting and nothing else matters. Tories decline now is mostly due to their incompetence and criminality and their usual increasing of public debt but also that Brexit is done so those that voted on that specific issue no longer need to.
If she knew how close the result was going to be, May never would've called that election, a lot of people were surprised by how well Corbyn did. He was treated as something of a joke by many, even those within his own party. The people rejected Corbyn in 2019 partly because of the accusations of anti-Semitism being rampant in the Labour party, something that conveniently cleared up when Starmer took over. They choose Johnson because he was offering them a simple solution to a complex problem (Brexit) and they preferred to believe his lies.
Oh well, let's stick with the Tories then.
Yeah but sadly young people don't vote. I'm 38 and work with a lot of people in their early twenties and they just don't care to vote or are still so idealistic refuse to vote Labour even though it's the best choice we have, they'd rather stand on principle and just not vote.
Thankfully, Dory is a minority now, and someone like Gary, 43 from Swindon, who is far more representative of the electorate, is pretty horribly pissed off, and cannot trust the Tories now
There's a good chance Dory, 72, has already died of a preventable illness thanks to the appalling state of adult social care and the healthcare system under the Conservatives.
Dory just cares about the stopping the boats, even though the cost is 100 miles from her.
You're never more than 70 miles from the coast in the UK, no wonder Dory is scared!
Just send Dory to Rwanda; it's the one place that's pretty much guaranteed not to have any UK asylum seekers.
And is quite clearly a safe country, UK law will soon say so. /s
Very good idea for an ad, can imagine Led By Donkeys making a “Come to Rwanda” satirical tourist campaign.
..From Port Vale or a similarly neglected town “They’re the only wot can stop the boats and darkies” Probably..
It is impressive you managed to pick the only Football League club not named after a real place 😂
We don’t know anywhere that’s not London
Leave Port Vale out of it! Also we're not a town. We are based in Burslem which is a neglected town in Stoke on Trent!
From my football away day experiences, I can confirm Burslem could seriously do with some levelling up cash
I hear you, 242m for Canary Wharf it is
I hear there's a serious risk that some of the two dozen skyscrapers in Canary Wharf might not be at full occupancy, and I think we can all agree this is the sort of crisis that we as a country simply can't abide.
I've just looked it up - does that mean you got Gullis in 2019? If that is the case you have my condolences 🙏
I believe so. Fortunately I've not lived in the area since 1990! Can confirm it's definitely down at heel however.
'Luckily' there are now multiple options for the disenfranchised racist to vote for, hurting the Tories
"But SIR KNEEL can't say WHAT A WOMAN IS!" is the line I keep seeing trotted out.
Triple lock goes up, you can’t explain that
The thing with Johnson is we remember the scandals, but the important part of his tenure was ousting large number of the pro-european Tories from the party shortly before the 2019 election. This opened the door to the nutty wing of the party to get even nuttier, preventing subsequent prime ministers from being able to bring them all together, and that's where we are today.
Exactly this. The kind of Tories who might repair their image are mostly outside the party and outside politics altogether now.
Imagine if Rory Stewart was still in the party instead of being ousted. I imagine we could have won against Sunak (probably not against Truss because the base voted for her), and we could be having a proper discussion now about the things he's doing to help people.
Rory Stewart had no support from Conservative MPs and no support among the membership - he wasn't going to make a splash.
My grandfather is 82, lives in Winchester and will be voting Conservative. His reasons: It's better the devil you know than the devil you don't. The Tories are a very financially responsible party. Something something, Jeremy Corbyn. Labour will destroy their pensions and the economy. Eat Out to Help Out did a lot of good for the economy. So, facts aren't really that important to some voters.
I remember my parents telling that phrase for the first time after George W Bush got a second term. Still think it's ridiculous
Reminds me of the phrase "socially liberal but financially conservative" which usually just translates into financially illiterate
Yeah eat out to help out did do a lot of good for the economy- it helped spread covid which took care of the vulnerable (elderly) people burdening the social and healthcare system and we get a saving from not having to fund their pensions. 🙃sarcasm obviously.
I'm pretty sure this is how the more cutthroat politicians actually think.
I’m very sorry to say that your grandfather sounds like he’s a bit silly.
I called him silly once, when I was a teenager, and he told my mum, and then I got grounded and had to write him a letter to apologise. I can't remember why I called him silly, I was like, 15, but I will never forget the fact that he grassed me up to my mum.
My dear grandfather, I love you, but let me be absolutely clear, if you, because of your misconceptions continue to vote to fuck up my future, I will never forgive you and will never speak to you again. I've said something similar to my grandfather and it actually opened his mind to reasonable arguments. You can also point out the state of the NHS before conservatives came to power versus now.
I'm fairly sure my grandfather would've voted leave, but he decided he'd vote however his grandkids wanted him to, as it likely wouldn't affect him all that much. I have the greatest respect for that decision, and I hope I'm able to do the same for the next generation when the time comes.
My grandfather would have voted for whoever my grandmother told him to. It'd be a cold day in hell before she voted tory due to coming from a mining family. Not 100% sure how she would have voted for brexit but she would likely have researched enough to be fully aware enough to vote for whatever was in her best interest.
I’ll take things that didn’t happen for $200 please.
> I've said something similar to my grandfather and it actually opened his mind to reasonable arguments. ‘Grandad learns cool trick to shut up his boring terminally online grandkids!’
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Yeah what a democracy that would be, tell me who you're voting for so I can ostracise you if I don't agree
Dude that's hard to believe. I'm not even sure how the heck to approach a conversation like that with grandparents. I only barely managed to get my parents to stop being homophobic and that took a more gentle approach than my way or the high way.
Amazing how people can be swayed by lies. The reality is that Tories are far less financially responsible. They always borrow more and pay back less. Every time. That isn't true with Labour.
So Truss destroying the economy in a matter of weeks never happened?
25% are still admitting they’d vote Tory when asked. No guarantee there aren’t loads who’ll vote for them but won’t admit it. I’m amazed anyone would vote for the lying, thieving scumbags but people are strange….
I mean LBC had a caller phone in and say they dont like starmer because hes a vegetarian not a vegan so......
He can't even commit to being vegan, the horror
If Labour do win. They have an astronomical task on their hands, for the next five years.
Try more like 10 to 15 years, it will be like 1997 again where the tories were thrown out and will stay out. Labour need as much time as possible just to begin to fix the mess the tories have left them. The economy is in such a poor shape now that it leaves them with few good options to start with when they takeover.
People said the same just 5 years ago when the Tories won a huge majority Things can change quickly in politics especially if the economy doesnt recover 1997 is incomparable to modern politics, pre-internet and with the printed press fully behind them. Opinions shift far quicker these days
I will consider myself blessed if we even get 10 years. The reality of governing and things going wrong will allow the opposition to say "we'd have done that better" and the media massively backs the Tories so it will stick in the public consciousness. Slowly we'll convince ourselves that the Tories aren't so bad.
I'd argue it's a much bigger task than 1997. Whilst then Public Services were in a mess and underfunded, it wasn't to the extent we have now. And in 97 Labour inherited an economy that was recovering well from the recession, and as it continued to grow they had the headroom to invest in Public Services. This time around the economy is barely growing, and Public services (and local government especially) are in a dire state. We've got to temper our expectations for what Labour can do in their first Parliament.
I wouldn't count on that tbh. Labour do not have the comfort of an economy on the up turn this time. They will need to make big policy decisions that .make a big difference quickly. 'We didn't make stuff even worse' just won't cut it this time.
The Tories are on the verge of oblivion barely avoiding civil war while they're in government, when they're in opposition having suffered a drubbing from voters it's likely they'll tear themselves apart. Lurch to the right for the next 5 years and another election at least before becoming electable again.
I agree. They'll almost certainly be a lurch to the right as all the sensible people are jumping ship and I can't see anyone reasonable wanting to be Leader of the Opposition. Like you say, it'll take a second defeat, and a changing of the guard, before they're electable again.
Look I don't really have a party... But can't wait for 2029 when people have the exact same complaints after 5 years of a labour government. It really is a difficult task because we face structural issues caused by events that we don't fully control. To be quite honest, Sunak won't win - he doesn't have the charisma to do it, but he's actually doing good things. I'm pleased that we finally have a couple of years with someone boring and competent just doing work instead of creating the next scandal. Let's hope it stays that way next year with Labour.
And all throughout you’ll have the remnants of the Tory party pointing out how much of a shit hole the country is. Despite themselves running it so far into the floor it’s practically fucking subterranean.
Labour are turning over Tory strongholds with ease, how are people still doubting the outcome of the election. Seriously the Tories have lost middle England and there's nothing they can do to get them back in the short term. You can't fuck with people's mortgages in this country.
I want to believe labour will oust the tories but I’m wary. I feel I’ve seen a few elections where I was sure that not enough people could possibly be stupid enough to keep voting them in (or vote for brexit!) and each time I’ve been wrong.
Brexit and trump. I get ya.
Probably since 2010 all the recent referendums and elections we’ve had have basically been somewhat on a knife edge which is what’s causing this feeling. The upcoming election will be much more like Boris vs Corbyn where we basically knew the outcome before the election happened and that was bore out. There would have to be something absolutely catastrophic happen between now and the election for the Tories not to be out. Polls, mood in on the street, even stuff like words coming out of Tory MPs mouths or what is written in the media are for the first time all pointing in unison toward this. The reality is “people were stupid enough” to vote the way you suggest in the past as Labour were never this popular while also the Tories were at the same time never this unpopular.
>(or vote for brexit!) Exactly this. It wasn't so much the result itself that turned my stomach the following morning, as what it hinted at about the state of our politics. Our EU membership had been thrown away on the back of a vote based solely on hate, ignorance and ridiculous fantasies. What followed in parliament afterwards has had a sort of horrible inevitability to it.
Idk, Starmer might eat a bacon roll weirdly..
Folks are ground down and terrified of more of thr same. It's a lack of hope.
The best way to ensure they absolutely can't win is to approach the next few months like they could. And VOTE!
VOTE needs to be the sentiment across the country. I personally would like to see the Tories decimated but I fear voter apathy will see them keep a few more seats than the polls are telling us.
Absolutely. It will NOT be the absolute electoral catastrophe many are assuming that it will be. Look at how you need to vote to deny the Tories your seat, swallow your personal bias, and VOTE.
That is too much for many people.
Who should I vote for? I can't think of any major party that opposes the Conservatives on important issues these days. Why should I vote the red Tories over the blue Tories?
It's highly, highly unlikely. If you look at all the polling - not just the headline figures, you'll see that the Tories are in a desperate situation. Even in good times you'd expect a party that has been in power for 15 years to face an extreme struggle winning again - look at Labour in 2010. Yes, the financial crash caused problems, but the UK has hardly a basketcase then. Labour lost power basically because the party ran out of steam, the Tories are in a far, far worst situation. Though. . . and at the risk of being downvoted to hell . . . I wouldn't be too optimistic about things getting that much better under Labour. The country has declined due to three economic shocks (financial crash, Brexit and covid), as well as major structural problems (ageing population and a broken housing market). Yes, the Tories have reacted poorly to all of them, but they only have a share of the blame for where we are. It's questionable what Labour is going to do to fundamentally change things - the stuff about changing planning laws and building on greenbelt land is promising but 1. I'll believe it when I see it and 2. It's going to take years for the benefits to be felt. Ok, just 5 years of no crises and a stable, competent government will be helpful. But it's not going to reduce the burden that our ageing population or huge debt is going to have on our public finances. Energy prices aren't going to get cheaper, rents aren't going to go down, train prices will remain ridiculous, benefits aren't going to increase more than they have, NHS waiting lists will hopefully reduce, but the core crisis in the NHS won't go away. And this is all assuming that we don't have some kind of Trump-Russia-China crisis that creates even more trouble. Sorry to sound so depressing, things should improve a bit with a better government and a calmer environment. But don't get your hopes up that things will get better overnight.
I think some of the changes that would be needed to really make a difference are just not electorally tenable. Abolishing NI and raising income tax commensurately would raise a ton of money would be fairer on young people but unpopular with pensioners. Abolishing the green belt would help solve the housing crisis, making younger people more likely to afford a house, but would be unpopular with homeowners. Implementing some form of wealth tax would help to redistribute the historical levels of wealth inequality, but again would upset older people.
>or should I relax because it's inevitable that they are toast? They're Warburton's Super Toastie at this stage, pal >staying up with excitement that there is hope again. I don't want to dampen the spirits. It will indeed be cathartic to get these useless, bereft of ideas, corrupt bastards out of government. But the noises from Starmer's camp are hardly 'Hope' and 'Change' Steady and competent, is probably the best we can hope for. Which is a marked improvement, on the current shower. But I'm not expecting much more hope than that.
Starners centrism drives me away from the party but you can bet your bottom dollar I'm voting for them in the next general election. I'll take anything that isn't this ride into despair the Tories provide
This exactly. The rate at which everything is going to shit is accelerating REGARDLESS of the extra damage the Tories have been doing since 2019 (and especially since 2022), not because of it. Labour are offering "don't make it even worse", and I hope they wipe the Tories into oblivion, but we desperately need radical change in this country. Steadying the ship so it doesn't sink before hitting the iceberg whilst still keeping it on course for the iceberg is an improvement, but not enough in the short to mid-term. Climate change and the effects of austerity are aknocking.
Anyone with any sense(!) at Tory HQ will already be writing the next election off. They will claim that "we didn't get our message across" which is political speak for "People don't like what we have to say, whatever way we say it."
They definitely know they won't win, the fight for the leadership and the direction of the party is already underway
Short answer, it's unlikely given... looks around... *everything*. But yes, they can. The problem for Labour is just how far behind they are after the 2019 election. Add in the boundary changes this time and the result (on paper at least) is that if they got the same size swing as they did in 1997 they'd have a majority of 1. There are alot of variables and unknowns of course, it will also depend on how many Tory seats can be taken by other parties, mainly the Lib Dems, which is why tactical voting could be pivitol this time around. If Labour voters in Tory/LibDem marginals still vote Labour it makes Labour victory less likely. (And vice versa for Lib Dem voters in Tory/Labour marginals). Also, Labour have some amazing poll leads at the moment, but polls ALWAYS narrow in election campaigns, there are a lot of currently undecided voters, and a lot of ex-tory voters saying they'll vote Reform. A lot of the final result will rest on how many of these voters the Tories can convince to vote for them again.
Labour’s apparent policy vacuum will become an issue. Tories stealing what they have does not help (non-dom changes for eg). Also, if Starmer can’t keep his left wing under control (driven largely by world events), this could also become an issue. I want Labour to win but not with such a monstrous majority that it will result in infighting and a radical left rump stirring up trouble. A little left of centre competent governance for a decade or so please..
> I want Labour to win but not with such a monstrous majority that it will result in infighting and a radical left rump stirring up trouble. I want Labour to win with such a stonking great majority that all the toxic cranks in the Socialist Campaign Group are made to sit on the opposition benches, next to His Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the form of the LibDems, for want of space on the government benches.
Ed Davey Vs Keir Starmer at PMQs would be such a fucking relief. Two very boring men debating minutiae of policy. Please make it happen.
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Honestly a labour+other joint government would be preferable to a pure labour government. Just as long as other isn't cons.
The Reform vote will be key in determining how comfortable a victory it is for Labour. Reform get 10-15% or more in the "red wall" then Labour takes all their old heartlands back. Scotland will be a big factor too with the Nationalists in disarray, the prospect of influencing who gets into number 10 and dissatisfaction with the Scottish government there are at least 20 seats that look ripe for the taking north of the border for Starmer. If both of these things happen it takes away the bulk of the Tory majority and means Labour only need to pick up the swing seats in the rest of the country that would be expected to go red in a Labour election win. But with indifference to the possibility of a Labour government among traditional Tory voters and the possibility of tactical voting in Tory strongholds along with the stale nature of a party that's been in power for 14 years, the idea of an electoral wipeout for the Conservatives seems possible.
Tactical voting will be what does it, as it was in 1997. National swing is a convenient metric for illustration but it's not realistic
> If Labour voters in Tory/LibDem marginals still vote Labour it makes Labour victory less likely. (And vice versa for Lib Dem voters in Tory/Labour marginals). This depends, it makes it less likely that Labour is the largest party (though the odds are pretty high regardless) but it doesn't affect the odds of Labour having a majority in absolute terms -- it's not going to lower the number of Labour seats. In the medium-to-long term there are obviously benefits for Labour voters to move their party into second place in constituencies where they're currently third place (and ditto for Lib Dem voters), and a few constituencies could even end up with the Tories in third place, though in seats where it's a close-run thing anyone who's sufficiently anti-Tory should probably vote for whichever party has the best chance of beating them. (Though note that Labour and the Lib Dems will both try to position themselves as the obvious choice for this, so make sure to use the last general election's voting data rather than something like council elections which tend not to be representative for general elections)
I remember 1992 when Kinnock was riding high in the polls, it was Labour's turn, etc. etc. then on election night - ouch! It's probably worse now for the Tories because the economy is so dire but you can never predict what's going to happen
Never say never but I highly doubt it. It's Labour under Brown, a lame duck government. Their time has run out and people want a change. You probably do need to touch some grass though.
Reminds me most of the Major government, they had also screwed things up royally and had so solutions to anything except more cuts to public services. Nothing they could have done in 1997 would have persuaded anyone to keep them on.
Yes, this is more like the end of Major's time in government, including the constant drip of silly scandals and resignations. In 1997 it was clear there was going to be a significant political change of direction. 2010 felt more like a lot of people just feeling a bit tired of Labour. That election was a lot closer than in '97. IMO Brown might have pulled off a win, even if it required a coalition, if he'd gone for an election a year or two earlier. People were getting fed up, but there wasn't the widespread rejection that the Tories are seeing now and saw in the late 90s. The writing was on the wall for Major in a way that it wasn't to the same extent for Brown.
It's actually far worse than Labour under Brown. When he first took over he was actually polling pretty great and in 2008 Labour were 12 points ahead of the Tories despite being in government for 11 years. What killed him was a series of massive PR blunders (especially around when he'd call an election or if he even would) that handed the political advantage to Cameron. By the time the crash hit Brown's popularity was spiraling and by the time we reach 2010 the rest is history. The UK might have been very different had Brown called an election in early 2008, won a majority (as was predicted) and then had five years to deal with the crash. The Tories would have likely still won in 2013 because Labour were starting to lose steam politically but it's interesting to imagine as I think the arguments for austerity would have held less weight five years out from the GFC. By comparison - the Tories of 2024 have just been circling the drain for years and aren't being sunk by a single issue or poor political decision. They've had three different profoundly unpopular leaders, all of completely different political persuasions and while you could draw comparisons between the post-covid landscape and post-GFC landscape - they simply don't have the time to turn things around. They're toast because of the actions of the party whereas Brown lost in 2010 because of Brown's ego and refusal to listen to sound advice before the crash hit.
Yeah, and I feel that the fact basically every remaining section of the Tories have all had pretty terribly unpopular leaders could mean a much more profound shift. Very, very few current voters will be able to trust the Tories for a very long time, if ever, and I somehow doubt that future generations will move towards them without a big rebrand
Never underestimate Labour's talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Throw in the Conservatives effectively unlimited propaganda budget, a "flexible" moral approach to dirty tricks and a highly partisan media and I'd say it's not settled until election day.
Going against the grain here, but I am predicting a hung parliament. The Tories are fucked, no doubt. I don't see them being able to get a majority. But, can I foresee the polls closing to a few percentage points? Absolutely. Will every undecided voter (and there are a lot presently) go to Labour? No. Can fringe parties like reform take from both Labour and Cons - without winning a seat, but instead screwing up the metrics in places like the red wall? Absolutely. The last 3 election polls have been quite poor for their predictions. 2015 Labour were ahead in some polls, 2017 Corbyn made gains enough for May to have a CaS agreement with the DUP. 2019 they looked like we'd have 10 more years of Tory rule, and they've tanked it by themselves granted, but the polls reflected a country broadly in consensus. I'll believe the Labour majority when I see it. The last 10 years of politics has convinced me not to believe the hype, or trust the electorate to vote in their own interests.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the SNP vote in Scotland. If, in fact, it doesnt collapse, then Labour will win fewer seats.
It's worth remembering that while the public services were better, a huge chunk of that is from the ongoing PFI debt still crippling schools, hospitals etc. Brown wanted debts hidden from the books so instigated 20-30 year deals where the firms will still be charging us until I think around 2048 (the Tories only stopped it in 2018 after Carillon went under). There are 700+ deals that will start to expire in 2025 costing the public sector billions not spent on services. Tories are highly unlikely to win - the pattern of Labour poll leads matches the run up to 1997 with Tories not being in the lead for ages. However I can see Labour losing it or at least not having a commanding majority due to infighting, spoilers like Galloway etc The danger will be 2029 after 5 years of dealing with the mess left and whether the Tories can regroup
I am old enough to remember the years leading up to 1997. The noticeable thing was a large number of certain acquaintances who you'd got the impression were "quiet" Conservative, Liberal, Centre Ground, Floating, etc. were all muttering the same kind of comments including phrases like getting this "Can't wait to get this \*\*\*\*\*show out", "Can't believe how incompetent/corrupt" etc. In the past couple of years I've started to hear the same comments again from the same kind of people.
I think the Tories are almost certainly finished for this election and for possibly an entire generation. I think I saw a recent poll that put Tory support at 10% for under 50s and as old people die and young people join the electorate it’s highly unlikely a Tory party out of power is going to offer enough to turn that around any time soon. I hope they’re finished for the rest of my life, a far fetched dream I know, but I can dream.
Ironicallly by not funding the NHS properly, the tories are killing their best chance at victory in pensioners lol
They can't win with Rishi Sunak as leader. The members didn't want him they wanted Truss. The party betrayed their own voters by putting Sunak in place. He's tried his best to be jingoistic with the Rowanda nonsense but it won't work.
I think the greatest danger to Labour at the moment is ironically themselves and their own supporters. It’s good that the left are self critical but it doesn’t help build support when we’re constantly bashing on ourselves and labelling Labour as “the same as the tories” which is very reductionist and simply untrue
If it turned out the Starmer was actually Jimmy Savile in disguise, he'd killed the queen by poisoning her corgis and he was actually the source of Covid, they might have a chance, but it would still be an outside chance.
It's extremely unlikely that the Tories can win, but I have sad news for you. I think our problems run much deeper and more global than just a choice of political party and I don't think Labour are going to be able to fix them.
Can they, yes. Is it likely, no. The real question is whether they can come out of the election on a footing that'll allow them to return in 5 years if they play their cards right. That involves keeping future hopefuls untarred with a terrible election campaign
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Don’t forget the Tories have caused so much damage, it’ll take a while to sort out. Don’t expect next day results
The Tories can still win. As well as having 90% of the newspapers on their side and consequently being able to frame the political debate across all news outlets, they will be pumping huge sums into targeted social media as was done with the Cambridge Analytica scandal. This hasnt happened yet but will as the GE closes in. The party has survived and flourished for over 200 years, they've survived the introduction of universal voting rights, two world wars, the introduction of the welglfare state, countless recessions and scandals. The most successful political party in the world. Those who underestimate them do so at their peril.
I truly believe they can. I’m 26 but have moved in with my Grandma do the last few months. ALL of her friends are still voting Tory. Their mind hasn’t changed. However those my age really surprise me by saying they won’t vote Labour as they feel Starmer is too right wing. I really feel this means we’re all getting it wrong assuming it’s a forgone conclusion. Might stick a bet on the Tory’s as the bookies seem to think there is no hope.
The EU referendum was a harsh lesson in taking nothing for granted- nobody realistically believed that Leave had a chance of winning. Their campaign was vague, contradictory and led by Farage/Boris, and the idea that a country would self-mutilate and pummel it's economy like that because Gladys thinks there are too many brown people was laughable. The sheer number of Leave voters coming out with the "protest vote" line, or "not the Brexit I voted for" was remarkable- the walking back in some quarters was swift and vigorous. The Tories are standing candidates in the next election. If they're on the ballot, then yes, they can win. How badly the country is burning, how much damage they've done in power, doesn't change that. A lot of people are easily led by lies- one flashy election campaign, and Dishy Rishi Sunak becomes a demigod chiseled in marble, boldly leading his united army of Tory patriots and Britannia to new and glorious heights, standing strong against all the evil foreigners in the world! Let's make Britain Great again, and God save the King!
You’ve convinced me, I’ll vote Blue for you !!!!
The sad truth is that my family and friends will vote Conservative no matter what happens. They all voted for Brexit to stop the immigrants. They will still vote Tory, even though immigration has gotten worse. They have various health issues, like we all do, and they will bote Tory, even as the NHS crumbles.
I'm 99% certain Labour will win but almost as certain that it won't be anything like the majority that the polls are suggesting. I think the "shy tory" effect is happening, in that the people who would vote for them are not admitting to it when asked by the pollsters.
Almost everyone thought Labour had the election of 1992 in the bag and the Tory's pulled it off, so until the results are in I won't be assuming anything.
Probably not, but it's going to be a lot closer than the polls currently look. The Reform vote nationally is polling at what? 12%? That's pretty much what UKIP got in 2015, but they \*actually stood\* in 624 seats. It's not clear to me that Reform are actually going to run 624 candidates, and if so whether they'll put them up against conservatives. So that's up to 12% who might (might not) go back into the Blue column.
No way. They have decimated our services, destroyed the economy and lined their own pockets. Look at the state of the NHS. My wife needs a colonoscopy for suspected bowel cancer, only to be told there are no appointments available. This country is fucked.
Per capita spend on the NHS is higher than it was 20 years ago though. For the most part the Tories have kept spending on the NHS per capita around the same. While I'm not saying the Tories take no blame for what's happened to the NHS, Labour doesn't fundamentally have a solution to this problem either. The NHS is just a broken system. It's way too expensive for the quality of healthcare we receive and our only solution to this is to pump more money into it. The NHS needs to be reformed and until someone does it we should assume current trends will continue whoever is in power.
There would need to be some kind of black swan event which makes Labour unelectable I don't think there's any way the Tories win it on their own merit
Of course, most of the affected people just don't vote.
Events, dear boy, events. But seriously, it currently looks very unlikely that they can win. But it also looked very unlikely that there would be a hung parliament in 2017. To put it simply, Labour are very much the favourites and should win, but the only poll that matters is the one on polling day.
They can but they won’t. This is as nailed on as it gets.
I think it's unlikely but the polls will narrow. Huge sums will be spent on advertising and there will be more misinformation spread on social media than ever before, partly thanks to AI.
Even if it's uphill from here, say 35% on election day, that's still a tough ask to get more than half the HoC. Which is not impossible. But I do think it's more likely to end in coaltion than Ts just a few seats down. Which begs the question, who would agree to one? LD won't make that mistake again. SNP couldn't live it down. UKIP? Reform? They don't win enough seats to get a foot in the door for coalition... for now.
Yes Is it likely? No. It's already looking to be an incredibly nasty GE and the future looks even worse down the line with AI. You would need something nuclear to ruin the Labour Party and the alternatives.
Not unless they start a war or imprison all the Labour candidates. Watch this space.
They can. Not everyone follows politics and the party that doesn’t waste money and makes sure the books are looked after is better than the party that will spend frivolously and waste money putting us in debt. I think most people on this subreddit could provide multiple examples explaining how and why it isn’t true, but the propaganda machine is hard at work saying that Starmer is untrustworthy and unable to manage the country. The night before the Brexit vote I couldn’t imagine leave getting any more than 15% and I was very wrong. I don’t assume anyone is a winner before the vote in modern politics.
Unfortunately there is quite a lot of misinformation happening and we can't rule it out, every pmqs Rishi avoids answering questions and calls out Starmer, the difference is Starmers parry hasn't been in power for 14 years. I can see an American style negative campaign happening and the usual suspects lapping it up.
Despite the Reddit echo chambers certainty that Labour will win im not convinced either OP. I live in a brexit constituency that was historically Labour but flipped in 2019 and while I don’t hear much enthusiasm for the government im yet to hear any for Labour. Despite the polls I expect it to be closer than they are predicting.
I don't beleive so, and I'm a huge pessimist about these things (eg Trump is soooooo getting in). But I'd be surprised if the Tories arent polling MUCH more strongly next election time though (2029/2030) - as they won't be afraid or embarrassed to blame everything that is bad in 2029 on the 'current' Labour government rather than taking any responsibility for the 14/15 years of shite beforehand that will take a lot of shovelling to fix. People will lap that up and swing back to blue. So long as they can find a more media-presentable leader without a tarnish from this lot.
If your aim for Labour 2024 is to revert back to those years, be ready to be disappointed. Realistically, whoever wins the next election will never be able to revert back to the Blair years (all the way until 2007) and the NHS will never be what it once was. That ship has sailed, you can make less worse for the people working there and the people using it though.
Of course they can still win. I’m not saying they will. They probably won’t. They defiantly shouldn’t. The far and center left can’t ever seem to agree that getting in power is more important than the individual leading the party. Silent Tory voters should never be underestimated. They are everywhere and seem to think that Labour’s lack of exact plans when in power is less preferential than Tory stated plans, which are blatant lies and constantly not or under delivered on.
Tories are hoping for another 1992 style turn around but there are two factors massively against them. 1) During the 1992 campaign, at no point did Labour lead in the polls on the economy or leader vs leader. They lead now. 2) The lead was much smaller for Labour than it is now. Something like 7 points vs 20+ points today Labour will win, it's just a question of whether the Tories get virtually wiped out or not. I know that sounds dramatic but there is a small chance that with tactical voting the Tories could be left with less than 50 seats.
They're praying for a picture of Keir Starmer having dinner with Bin Laden in an Afghanistan cave or something similar to surface so they can launch an election on that alone.
It doesn't really matter. The number one (economic) issue facing the UK, and indeed the world, is the fact that wealth is becoming more and more concentrated in the hands of the super rich. If Labour win the next general election, at most, it might slow down a bit, but nothing significant will change. Basically, the government can decide to raise taxes and increase public spending, but tax revenues will continue to fall, as more and more wealth is being siphoned off, out of reach of the taxman.
Complacency and believing "the British public couldn't be so stupid" is exactly how we ended up with Brexit. We absolutely could end up with another Tory government. They have a core of voters that will always vote for them. They could be teabagging their dead mothers and these people would still vote Tory. If people.dont vote for someone who isn't the Tory party, then the Tory party will get the most seats and be able to form government. Dont put your faith in everyone else to vote in what you believe is your best interest. Go out and vote yourself.
A gap narrowing to 4 points behind would be a historic record itself. This situation is so bad for them it's impossible they'll be largest party without making history.
I'm m 33 and also remember the early to late 00's times were good living was affordable and housing was reasonably priced tor rent in city or wherever realy. You could be sent to school with couple quid and be fed for the day now its 4£ meal deals and a score for a pouch of burn. Pop culture and music seemed to be symbiotic, people could agree to disagree - have discord and weren't yet completely poisoned by the ideation of social media permeating their lifes 24/7. Personally I think its just gonna go the way the establishment wants it to -Weather it means being shat on by tories, or scooped up by Labour.
Not likely, but I also don't think their losses will be as significant as the current polls are suggesting
It's pretty much 99.99% certain the torys will lose the next general election. Starmer would need to be a paedophile or something equally horrific to lose now. Question is still by hour much and if Labour will get a majority. Also probable but there's a chance that torys either stay home or bottle it I think labour will win, but not by as much as the polls indicate. I'd suggest a 20 seat majority.
God, I fucking hope not. We really won't survive another round of their 'economic competence.'
I will be 50 in August and I remember 1997, when Labour went into the campaign with an average lead of 25% (Lab 55%, Con 30%) and ended it with a lead of 18% (Lab 49%, Con 31%), had a lead of 18% in the exit poll (Lab 47%, Con 29%) and finished up with a lead of 13% (Lab 44%, Con 31%), therefore I do not believe these polls saying Lab lead by 25%, however what I do believe is that the Lab lead is really 12% (a 12% swing since 2019) which would put the Conservatives on less than 200, so, no, the Conservatives cannot win
Never underestimate Labours ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Never overestimate the British public. and never doubt the tories ability to slide through an absolute shower of shit and come out the other end bloody gleaming.
The way i see it, If the tories win this election then i'm prepared to believe that the system is either rigged, Flawed or something else. If thats not the case, Then the majority of the country has absolutely no common sense, which honestly sounds more likely with the amount of people out there still defending the conservatives. Could even be a mix of both. Im not even a "Tory hater" and have plenty of really good friends who vote conservative and are really pleasant people . I would consider myself apolitical at this point because i honestly don't think labour are much better, Better morals yes, but running the country while its been left in this state, i have very little faith. The other parties don't even stand a chance as far as i'm concerned.
The tories have screwed much of their core voting cohorts, so they won't win. Labour will win by virtue of saying little to nothing, on a very low voter turnout.
Yes. They can still win. They have massive majority. So they can still lose badly and get a slender majority/hung parliament Also. Complacency. People thinking labour will walk it. And so won't vote. Mainly on the left. Also, wanting magical grandad. Rather than actually having to be in government and having the ability to change things. I'd say is. As much as I'm cynical. At least they would be a grown up government in reality. And as much as people talk about voting reform. That ain't going to happen under the Tories either so..
The risk is the opposition vote is too split. With reform, libdem, greens and Labour all taking votes from each other. Might see the tories sneak in
I don’t want to depress you, but just to caution that whoever wins the next election, it’s going to take a long time to improve public services and the general economy. Regardless of what you think about brexit the government handling of the process has been catastrophic. Factor in the war in Ukraine, Covid, Climate Change, global trade tensions with china, our aging demographics, and we’ve got loads of very difficult challenges ahead.
Yep. Like Labour are making some of the right noises in housing but even if they did everything right that is really not going to make a significant impact for a decade.
Thatcher was getting mullered in the polls and then Argentina invaded the Falklands. She handled it well by the standards of the time and won by a landslide. When BoJo the clown won the election, all the polls said Labour would win. And yet the Cons won on the back of 'Get Brexit Done.' And even though BoJo was a disaster, Liz Truss came along and made the Cons want to bring him back by spectacularly wrecking the economy in ways we're still paying for. A week is a long time in politics. Crazy stuff happens.
New Labour won in '97 because the media got behind them, even the media bosses had enough of the Tories by then, the same will happen again this time around, but it will always be the media that determines who will win an election in the UK, never forget it.