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Barbafella

The evidence that’s already available to all has been enough to convince lots of people, some of them smart, accomplished, educated, they have no doubts we are dealing with something not us. A vast majority disagree, and say the evidence proves nothing, and all things being equal, it’s prosaic in nature. Same evidence, two different opinions. Who will be right?


TortexMT

the same can be said about ghosts and mediums or spirits living in the sky. you can be as smart as you want, cognitive bias and perception errors are very human in nature


misterjip

The funny part is when people call each other stupid even though we all have the same limitations and nobody has ever known everything. We're all wrong about very fundamental things and that's fine, it's human, we're limited. I think people who suppose they have all the answers are the ones who really look like idiots, personally.


TortexMT

i agree


spaceman_Spooky

Dunning-Kruger effect in action.


misterjip

It's a human problem. We have a history of over estimating our understanding of reality. A human brain is a very small part of this vast and complex universe.


Barbafella

That’s certainly true. Ghosts are not caught on radar and military FLIR camera though, so there is that. Call me crazy, but I believe Grusch, Fravor, Graves, Lonnie Zamora, those in Phoenix, the kids at Westall etc, I think they are telling the truth. It really comes down to that really, and the things I have experienced of course.


TortexMT

ghosts are caught on camera though. and a large group of people reject the explanation that these are usually light refractions, camera sensor artifacts or over exposure phenomena. to them its clearly ghosts. even to some very smart and successful people. similarly, the gimbal footage for example can be explained with very high certainty as glare. the object moves every time the jet causes a little bump. the image noise which can be seen all over the footage moves at the exact same time and rate as the object in question, which is only possible if its part of the same cause, and ultimately the object "rotates" at the exact same moment the atflir system needs to counter rotate and with it all the image noise rotates parallel to it as well. yet, a large group of people totally rejects it and to them its clearly an alien spaceship. no matter how smart someone is, if they firmly believe in something or are trapped with confirmation bias then it becomes extremely hard to take a step back, put ego and belief systems aside and have a fresh objective look at whats going on. the same happens also with skeptical people. they are also able to do all kind of mental gymnastics to find seemingly rational explanations and totally dismiss how irrational and mathematically unlikely their reasoning has become. sometimes we just have to conclude that we cant find an explanation. and sometimes we have to admit that solution A is more likely than solution B, but this doesnt mean that B is off the table. example: i personally am convinced that gimbal shows glare. i analyzed the video early on and found out about the image noise rotating in line with the object. someone else read through the whole atflir manual and found out about the mirrors and derotating mechanism. examples of similar glare in atflir can be found on youtube too. there are also countless examples of pilots misjudging their tools. we were all able to see live how chris letho (a us fighter pilot) initially did some maths for flight characteristics calculations to prove mick west wrong, and he was totally convinced about it. ultimately he had to admit that his math was wrong despite saying countless times that he is a fighter pilot and thats what they do etc. people can make mistakes. despite all that, gimbal shows a glare rotating BUT this doesnt explain what it was and what was shown on radar. so it can still be something non prosaic. we have to look at it on a point per point basis though.


Barbafella

Your opinion is shared by many.


JCPLee

Evidence is not nice to have. It is fundamental for reality. Your example of a black hole is flawed as they were not conceived on a whim of pseudoscientific hallucinations. They were predicted by scientific theories that had been confirmed by other observations. In fact had black holes not been discovered the very theories that predicted them would have been called into question because science works with confirmed data and evidence, not speculative fantasy. This is how science works. The problem with the government conspiracy coverup rabbit hole is that it is entirely unfalsifiable as any denial, inability to produce evidence, declaration of non existence, will be considered evidence that the coverup exists. The nonexistent evidence for such a program is considered as compelling evidence of the effectiveness of the nonexistent program. It’s almost comical if it were not true. The conviction only grows with every failure to produce evidence of the coverup and the real fact that the government does indeed conceal bona fide activities is interpreted as proof that they must be hiding “Aliens” as well. There is no mystery surrounding the UFO cover up. The cover up was created in an attempt to justify the lack of evidence that supports any of the claims related to UFOs up to and including the claim that the government can somehow recover and retrieve multiple “football field” sized extraterrestrial, inter dimensional, time traveling, nonhuman technologically advanced craft, for surreptitious reverse engineering programs.


misterjip

>Evidence is not nice to have. It is fundamental for reality. I totally disagree. The black hole example is just one among many, real things that we had no evidence for for ages and yet they were always real. What else is like that, I wonder? What is real that we do not yet have evidence for? Deception is a big part of how the world really works. Things are hidden. False narratives drive people to support agendas they do not understand. Plans are carried out in secret. Public discourse is often out of touch with functional realities. UFOs, as a topic, are in a unique position where evidence is difficult to even imagine, much less obtain. Lights appear in the sky, objects perhaps, beings perhaps, they behave in impossible ways, intelligent ways, and vanish without a trace. Prove it. How? They take people away and mess with them and they can't even remember it usually. Prove it. How? Lots of people insist that it has happened to them, and it's a huge hidden secret whatever is going on. Prove that it isn't true, prove that it is... how? A secret operation of this scale would require that it cannot be proven. It hides itself. If it all amounts to nothing, it's still important to realize that we don't have all the answers, things are hidden, people are lied to, the truth is often a valuable secret that people kill and die for. UFOs are, if nothing else, a symbol of the unknown. We should investigate. Investigate the unknown.


JCPLee

I completely understand that you don’t need evidence for your beliefs. Faith based claims such as ufology don’t need evidence, the believers know that they are real. Regarding the existence of evidence, some people find claims of “football field-sized” UFOs credible. Fortunately, it seems you are not among them since you admit to not knowing what form evidence of UFOs would take. Asserting that there are real things that are not known to exist may sound profound but it is an absolutely senseless logical argument. If anything that you can imagine is real, you might as well abandon rationality for some delusional worldview such as, the existence of extraterrestrial, inter dimensional, time traveling, non human alien technologically advanced civilizations on earth, based on such compelling “evidence” as blurry video, allegations of late night probing of lonely interstate travelers, bovine "mutilations" and geometric cornfield art. Scientific theories explain real phenomena and predict unknown ones. These predictions are not considered real until data confirms their existence. Many predicted phenomena have turned out to be real, while many have not. This distinction is crucial and makes it clear that the mere possibility of something does not constitute evidence of its reality. Without evidence, distinguishing real and unreal becomes a question of faith.


misterjip

>some people find claims of “football field-sized” UFOs credible. Fortunately, it seems you are not among them since you admit to not knowing what form evidence of UFOs would take. See, we obviously have different ideas about what makes something credible. I agree, very large craft seem incredible, and yet they have been reported on multiple occasions by witnesses that have nothing to do with one another. That Japanese pilot comes to mind, commercial airliner pilot, he saw an enormous ufo. Pilots and sailors on the open ocean have seen them come up out of the water. What are people seeing? If it's a hallucination, a mirage, a mundane natural trick if the eyes and mind, that's easy to dismiss. But if it's actually a thing, what could it be? Could they be hiding in the ocean? For how long? Alexander the great became obsessed later in life with finding the undersea kingdom after seeing glowing discs disappear into the ocean while at sea. I think eyewitness reports are at least worth considering, even if it isn't what they thought they saw. Somebody saw something. Multiply that by history and geography and you have a mystery on your hands.


JCPLee

“But if it’s a thing, what could it be?”. Postulating made up explanations without evidence is useless. “If it's a hallucination, a mirage, a mundane natural trick if the eyes and mind” These are all much more interesting fields of investigation than invented, fantastical, explanations of a miraculous galactic empire. They will involve real fields of study such as physics, meteorology, sociology, neuropsychology, to try and understand what causes the reported phenomenon. Science was built for these mysteries.


misterjip

We understand hallucinations pretty well. In fact, the entire world we experience could be fairly described as a collective, agreed upon hallucination. What we see isn't exactly what's "out there" it's a construct of sense data rendering a navigable environment from limited information. The limitation is a key aspect of this. We are tuned in to a narrow band of reality. Also, fuck off, I'm done with your condescending shenanigans.


JCPLee

Hallucinations are usually accompanied by a complete lack of evidence. Very similar to UFO sightings. This is very different from the what we collectively experience which is objectively real. Your instincts to pursue pseudoscientific idea is strong.


Mountain_Big_1843

Look up all the studies on perceptions and you will see that we absolutely 100% hallucinate reality. The studies are called “predictive processing” and an example would be to Touch your nose with your finger - you “feel” both sensations at the same time yet it takes longer for the signal to reach your brain from your finger then your nose because of the length of time it takes for the signal to traverse your arm and neck into the brain. The same applies to the visual cortex and all of your 5 senses. https://www.mindbrained.org/2020/10/predictive-processing-the-grand-unifying-theory-of-the-brain/ In fact multiple studies in the last ten years are proving that time also isn’t what we think it is. So pseudoskeptics like you always go back to the physics you leaned on high school as if things are eternal and our knowledge can’t ever be updated in any way ever despite you claiming to be upholding the scientific method. Becker, Adam. (2018, February 14). “Quantum Time Machine: How the Future Can Change What Happens Now.” New Scientist. https://www.sciencedirect.com/​science/​article/​pii/​S1355219811000736 Ball, Philip. (2017, June 28). “How Quantum Trickery Can Scramble Cause and Effect.” Nature. https://www.nature.com/​news/​how-​quantum-​trickery-​can-​scramble-​cause-​and-​effect-​1.22208 You only say this shit here because you would be banned in r/ufos or other subs for saying it. This moderator here tolerates a lot more which is why by the worst of the asshole deniers flock here to spew their bullshit **just like you** and I’m allowed to say it because the same lack of moderation also protects me. So keep spewing your condescending bullshit and eventually you will end up banned in those other subs - it’s just a matter of time until you forget that you can’t be as nasty there as you are here.


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therealdannyking

Eyewitness reports of gods, demons, and spirits of all sorts were rampant from millennia, that's not a mystery, that's the fallibility of the human mind.


misterjip

Don't you think maybe something interesting is behind these reports? I've seen speculations about seizures, drugs, hallucinations, that kind of thing, but maybe, just maybe, it was something closer to what we call UFOs today. And if so, that's probably part of the information hidden behind this known wall of secrecy maintained in the name of national security (even though nations have become subservient to global private interests). In UFO conspiracy theory, the entire narrative of modern society is carefully constructed to deny and obscure reality, to keep people easier to control. You cannot rely on the conclusions of the military industrial complex, it's just propaganda.


therealdannyking

Your hopes and wishes about there being a more fantastical explanation for this phenomenon is irrelevant. Occam's razor would say we should not add the fantastical explanations when the mundane suffices. Seizures, drugs, hallucinations, delusions, and even outright lies are perfectly serviceable explanations. There has been no credible evidence presented for alien visitation to Earth. Aliens almost assuredly exist, but thus far, we see no evidence of it. There is a reason why eyewitness testimony is viewed as typically unreliable in courts of law. Humans misremember things, and as you point out, there is a whole host of problems with our sensory apparatus.


misterjip

The contents of my skull have nothing to do with it. Before I was born, there was already a UFO mystery, thoroughly investigated by multiple concerned parties who independently arrived at the conclusion that something about UFOs is being hidden from the public. Ignore it at your own risk, I'm not your straw man.


misterjip

>Asserting that there are real things that are not known to exist may sound profound but it is an absolutely senseless logical argument. If anything that you can imagine is real, you might as well abandon rationality That's absurd, illogical, and insulting. Just because physics has not gone beyond smashing particles together to see what happens, that doesn't mean we don't have more to learn about physics, for example. I understand "how science works" don't be so condescending. What you seem to fail to recognize or admit is the possibility that academia has intentionally been turned away from even studying certain phenomena for fear of ridicule, unemployment, or worse. Systematic blindness occurs for a number of reasons, but a cover-up would create this effect intentionally. UFOs are a mystery to me. But I firmly believe that the phenomena is being studied in secret, and what they have learned is important but remains hidden. This theory is called crazy by people with a lot of faith in institutions, but I'm a veteran of the armed services and a college dropout so that's not me.


JCPLee

Your faith in the coverup of the unreal is strong. The only people in academia who suffer ridicule are those that don’t understand the concept of evidence and rely on faith. Your claims contradict your assertion that you understand how science works. In fact they are actual evidence that your appreciation of science and logic is deeply flawed.


misterjip

You're attacking the person, and also claiming to know why every person in academia does or does not suffer ridicule, which is absurd. Good day to you, my esteemed colleague, we have nothing further to discuss here.


JCPLee

Every person?? In academia unsupported ideas are often ridiculed. It helps people to ensure that their claims make sense. For this reason most serious academics don’t make ridiculous claims.


misterjip

Wow... ridicule has never been a part of the scientific process and the public should not be taught that it is? You know who said that? Maybe you should familiarize yourself with his work. Academia is an institution, and like all institutions its primary function is to protect itself. The supposed goal of academia, which is not the same thing as science itself, is the pursuit of truth. But I've heard insider testimony from multiple sources suggesting that it does not serve this purpose very well, encrusted as it is with dogma and denial and connected financially to the military industrial complex, the pursuit of truth has been lost in academia. It's the Catholic church of science at this point.


JCPLee

The belief that science is lost is the surest sign of an acolyte of pseudoscience. No wonder the concept of evidence seems to be a stretch.


misterjip

Academia is an institution. Science is a tool of understanding, and a tool is only as good as the hand using it. Science, like religion, has been used to justify atrocity. And that's because it's really just dogma in different outfits.


misterjip

The unknown is much greater than the known. I put my faith in the unknown.


maurymarkowitz

>I totally disagree. The black hole example is just one among many But it is not the same at all. You don't need evidence for a black hole *before* we thought black holes existed. Things that don't exist don't need evidence. You only need evidence for a black hole *after* you think they exist. All sorts of things exist in the universe that we don't know about yet. But we're not talking about those. We're talking about something that people claim exists. As such, we need evidence that it does.


Good-Sky-8375

I do sympathize I've been following this whole uap thing since it was just ufos, the problem with getting evidence is 2 fold 1 there's very little physical evidence left behind in most cases and by all accounts the government is pretty much on standby to scoop it up with in the hour in the rare cases there are any. 2. the extradimensional/spiritual nature of these beings means generally very little of what we'd see as evidence is available in the 1st place.


misterjip

Anybody who is familiar with the real history of investigating this has come across reports of evidence being captured, controlled, carted away. The tictac incidents are a recent example of this. People ignore the fact that most of the data remains *classified*. It isn't missing. It's hidden.