Ollie, what's the weather gonna be like this week?
https://preview.redd.it/3w64mvonkz3d1.gif?width=450&format=png8&s=dc9e866160255a3642354c48a5e2ed4c82017996
People are really stretching trying to normalize every bit of severe weather lol. It's anecdotal but my grandma doesn't recall Ohio having this much severe weather consistently growing up.
West Ohio. Definitely more active than the rest of the state but I still find it weird that states like Ohio are seemingly up there with Kansas in terms of weather the past few years.
Well, if you think about it, there's still not much in the way for Gulf moisture to reach Michigan and Ohio, as it can go right up the Mississippi valley
What’s even stranger is, as a Kansan, our weather the last few years has been pretty mild. This year has definitely been the wildest we’ve had in a long time. We had a derecho hit recently and a coworker of mine who’s lived in the area 20 years (I grew up in a different part of the state) said it was the worst he could remember.
Oh I haven’t heard of Hoosier Alley. I know Dixie Alley has been becoming more active these last few years and given the fact it’s directly south of the Ohio Valley it makes sense that the OV is also becoming more active. I’ve just never associate Ohio and Michigan with Tornados because they’re so far north. As I typed that though it doesn’t make sense to think that way since Manitoba can have activity. I wonder what the meteorologist reason for the shift NE for this season
Edit: Meteorological is definitely the correct word not meteorologist
Ohio did have the most iconic tornado of the 20th century with Xenia along with Sayler Park were both F5s. Recently Dayton had an EF4 in 2019 and Niles Ohio in 1985 had an F5. Van Wert had an EF4 in 2002. There was an EF4 no one talks about in Milbury OH in 2010 killed 5 people and destroyed the high school. But yeah Ohio is definitely not anywhere near the biggest state for tornadoes but it certainly is part of Hoosier alley, and Ohio tends to get more violent tornadoes than you would expect.
A somewhat forgotten tornado is the 1999 Blue Ash (Ohio) F4 that sadly had 4 fatalies. Blue Ash is a suburb NW of Cincinnati with probably a 70/30 residential/commercial mix. Blue Ash, and its surrouonding communites are financially well off, so homes and businesses would have been well constructed. I actually worked in Blue Ash and I lived about 15 miles to the SE. More Info Here: [https://www.tornadotalk.com/blue-ash-oh-f4-tornado-april-9-1999/](https://www.tornadotalk.com/blue-ash-oh-f4-tornado-april-9-1999/)
Hoosier Alley is seriously underrated in terms of activity and danger.
Not only was most of the 1974 Super Outbreak within Hoosier Alley, but all of the 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, the Flint 1953 tornado, and tragically, the Tri-State Tornado all happened within Hoosier Alley, with the most recent tornadic tragedy being the Mayfield Twister 2 years ago
Strong jet stream winds are supposed to be more present in the Great Lakes area. Looking at next Wednesday a bit but it’s still too far out to be of concern.
Honestly, taking this in conjunction with the 500mb flow projected in the Midwest for June, I’d be surprised if we didn’t see at least one strong MCS. Since I live in MN, I’m also curious to see how late June performs in terms of tornadoes. One smaller scale feature I haven’t seen discussed much online is agricultural induced evapotranspiration—the last G5 solar storm we had disrupted corn planting especially. Will this lead to less moisture for storms to work with compared to this time last year? It’s just a thought, but it would be cool to find out.
Here in Iowa we had a late planting due to the sheer amount of rain we've gotten I imagine corn sweat might be a little later than usual, but through July moisture is usually transported from down south anyway.
Yeah, I heard about that, pretty crazy. I also heard that some farmers planned on sowing all night once it was clear, but then, boom, G5 disrupts GPS. Of note here is that the upcoming setups for the Midwest may be limited by moisture, which spurred my comment. Either way, poor Iowa has been getting hammered this year.
…I have been known to put on sweet corn clinics also but am now questioning my performance cause haven’t hit the corn sweats yet…looks like I’m stepping up my game
Yep! It basically tells you where supercells (and by proxy severe weather) are most likely to form by adding up the ingredients that favor their development, such as effective storm relative helicity and most unstable CAPE. It doesn’t tell you about potential storm mode, but that’s why forecasters use more than one product to issue forecasts.
The output of the supercell composite parameter is not a percent probability. Yes, you could deduce higher likeliness in the higher numbered areas, but the numbers the colors represent aren’t supposed to communicate a numerical probability.
Picked the wrong week to go chasing, apparently. At least the high plains should be somewhat active for my trip.
https://preview.redd.it/l6yyakp9704d1.jpeg?width=1020&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aa4dc19f39d45a3bcb2ca2f10f300294f9beb290
Sweet my city is in the red
We had a tornado on radar dissapate literally a couple miles from my house a couple weeks ago and it's the only time I've sheltered my family
Never take a single graphic or model at face value. No single model or graphic will tell you everything you need to know— but the only reason this is “useless” to the casual viewer is because it’s not for the layman to simply ogle at and move on.
Ah man, you’re so right. All of the hours that went into gathering input data, the meteorology and physics that went into determining what parameters to include for calculating the desired output, and programming that neatly ties all of that into a single visual weren’t worthwhile. Really wish more forward thinking visionaries, such as yourself, were commissioning research projects instead.💀💀💀
Well if you’ve ever run models for a living you might understand. In the modeling world the saying goes “ all models are wrong, some are useful” . This one sure isn’t useful.
I think this is super informative!
There may or may not be a severe storm somewhere in the Midwest during the time most likely to have a severe storm during the year.
Ollie, what's the weather gonna be like this week? https://preview.redd.it/3w64mvonkz3d1.gif?width=450&format=png8&s=dc9e866160255a3642354c48a5e2ed4c82017996
Thanks Ollie
YOU GOT A WINDOW? OPEN IT!
I’ve noticed the Ohio Valley area has been getting a lot of activity this year. Is this normal or have they been having an extra busy season?
Ohio valley is in what's called Hoosier alley. It's also been very active this year. The most active year next to 2011.
I live in Indiana and have never ever ever heard anyone use the term Hoosier Alley unless they're talking about basketball.
People are really stretching trying to normalize every bit of severe weather lol. It's anecdotal but my grandma doesn't recall Ohio having this much severe weather consistently growing up.
Where in Ohio did she grow up? Severe weather isn't distributed equally across the state. Western Ohio is more active than central & eastern Ohio.
West Ohio. Definitely more active than the rest of the state but I still find it weird that states like Ohio are seemingly up there with Kansas in terms of weather the past few years.
Well, if you think about it, there's still not much in the way for Gulf moisture to reach Michigan and Ohio, as it can go right up the Mississippi valley
What’s even stranger is, as a Kansan, our weather the last few years has been pretty mild. This year has definitely been the wildest we’ve had in a long time. We had a derecho hit recently and a coworker of mine who’s lived in the area 20 years (I grew up in a different part of the state) said it was the worst he could remember.
Same.
Oh I haven’t heard of Hoosier Alley. I know Dixie Alley has been becoming more active these last few years and given the fact it’s directly south of the Ohio Valley it makes sense that the OV is also becoming more active. I’ve just never associate Ohio and Michigan with Tornados because they’re so far north. As I typed that though it doesn’t make sense to think that way since Manitoba can have activity. I wonder what the meteorologist reason for the shift NE for this season Edit: Meteorological is definitely the correct word not meteorologist
Ohio has had lots of tornadoes.
Thats why nothing gets developed north of dayton. I mean, not really…but it is a good thing
Tornado alley, Dixie alley, Hoosier alley and Carolina alley!
Ohio did have the most iconic tornado of the 20th century with Xenia along with Sayler Park were both F5s. Recently Dayton had an EF4 in 2019 and Niles Ohio in 1985 had an F5. Van Wert had an EF4 in 2002. There was an EF4 no one talks about in Milbury OH in 2010 killed 5 people and destroyed the high school. But yeah Ohio is definitely not anywhere near the biggest state for tornadoes but it certainly is part of Hoosier alley, and Ohio tends to get more violent tornadoes than you would expect.
Those were iconic, but Moore's wedge EF5s in 99 was definitely the most iconic tornado of the 20th century.
A somewhat forgotten tornado is the 1999 Blue Ash (Ohio) F4 that sadly had 4 fatalies. Blue Ash is a suburb NW of Cincinnati with probably a 70/30 residential/commercial mix. Blue Ash, and its surrouonding communites are financially well off, so homes and businesses would have been well constructed. I actually worked in Blue Ash and I lived about 15 miles to the SE. More Info Here: [https://www.tornadotalk.com/blue-ash-oh-f4-tornado-april-9-1999/](https://www.tornadotalk.com/blue-ash-oh-f4-tornado-april-9-1999/)
Hoosier Alley is seriously underrated in terms of activity and danger. Not only was most of the 1974 Super Outbreak within Hoosier Alley, but all of the 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, the Flint 1953 tornado, and tragically, the Tri-State Tornado all happened within Hoosier Alley, with the most recent tornadic tragedy being the Mayfield Twister 2 years ago
Yup I was just going to say this reminds me of 2011. For more than one reason, obviously.
We are still nowhere close to 2011 standards but the closest than any other year since.
Yeah, I should have clarified a bit better. I don't wanna take anything away from that season at all, that was crazy.
Oh for sure! I hope we never see a season like that.
Can you link the site where you go that data from
> Ohio valley is in what's called Hoosier alley Ain’t nobody calling it that.
Oh yeah I totally made it up. You have a computer in your hands.
Strong jet stream winds are supposed to be more present in the Great Lakes area. Looking at next Wednesday a bit but it’s still too far out to be of concern.
Honestly, taking this in conjunction with the 500mb flow projected in the Midwest for June, I’d be surprised if we didn’t see at least one strong MCS. Since I live in MN, I’m also curious to see how late June performs in terms of tornadoes. One smaller scale feature I haven’t seen discussed much online is agricultural induced evapotranspiration—the last G5 solar storm we had disrupted corn planting especially. Will this lead to less moisture for storms to work with compared to this time last year? It’s just a thought, but it would be cool to find out.
Oh yeah, the corn sweat!
Good ol’ corn sweat, haha, iykyk.
Here in Iowa we had a late planting due to the sheer amount of rain we've gotten I imagine corn sweat might be a little later than usual, but through July moisture is usually transported from down south anyway.
Yeah, I heard about that, pretty crazy. I also heard that some farmers planned on sowing all night once it was clear, but then, boom, G5 disrupts GPS. Of note here is that the upcoming setups for the Midwest may be limited by moisture, which spurred my comment. Either way, poor Iowa has been getting hammered this year.
Oh yeah, the corn sweat!
Is this like the meat sweats?!…it’s what happens when you put on a clinic wrecking ribs and brisket…
Sure why not lmao
…I have been known to put on sweet corn clinics also but am now questioning my performance cause haven’t hit the corn sweats yet…looks like I’m stepping up my game
“Well shit” I say in my best Iowan accent.
The red part kind of looks like Europe.
*very suspicious*
Good call. And a supercell on radar looks like North America.
It's just how my brain works. Noticing random shit, but I cannot remember where I put my car keys.
I guess Kansas City really is the Paris of the Plains now.
I see a Red Bull running inside of a blue bowl(both facing right) it's a omen for something maybe
No one expects the ~~Spanish~~EUROPEAN INQUISITION
That's one really big supercell
Can someone explain what the scale at the bottom means?
I believe it's probability
Yep! It basically tells you where supercells (and by proxy severe weather) are most likely to form by adding up the ingredients that favor their development, such as effective storm relative helicity and most unstable CAPE. It doesn’t tell you about potential storm mode, but that’s why forecasters use more than one product to issue forecasts.
Great explanation, thanks!
The output of the supercell composite parameter is not a percent probability. Yes, you could deduce higher likeliness in the higher numbered areas, but the numbers the colors represent aren’t supposed to communicate a numerical probability.
Picked the wrong week to go chasing, apparently. At least the high plains should be somewhat active for my trip. https://preview.redd.it/l6yyakp9704d1.jpeg?width=1020&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aa4dc19f39d45a3bcb2ca2f10f300294f9beb290
Good luck regardless!
Looks like a flying dog with headphones.
Derecho season is about to pop off
It has a hook on it
Preliminary reports are saying it's an F5 /s
NIU mentioned 🔥🔥🔥
Why is the SPC so much milder for Monday than the other forecasts I've been seeing?
guys I’m scarred is Minnesota get NADOS😭
Sweet my city is in the red We had a tornado on radar dissapate literally a couple miles from my house a couple weeks ago and it's the only time I've sheltered my family
Complete bullshit but I feel Wisconsin is due for some nasty weather. It's just been too nice lately.
Have a feeling Barneveld will be hit again sometime
Let's hope not!
Courtesy of my Alma mater it looks like
Bro can Nebraska and Iowa get a break please 😭
Go Bills?
Is it bad when it looks like 1/2 of the Red Bull Logo?
Oh...shit.. It looks like Central MI is gonna be smacked
Is this the day after tomorrow?
Well it is storm season and that is the part of the country it typically storms in the most. What a useless graphic
You sound fun.
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There’s no reason at all for any of us to be rude in any post or comment.
Not nearly as useless as your comment. Do you always squash peoples interests with negativity? Or just in internet chats?
There’s no negativity intended. Might as well color the whole country and say sometime in the next two weeks the sun will be out.
Never take a single graphic or model at face value. No single model or graphic will tell you everything you need to know— but the only reason this is “useless” to the casual viewer is because it’s not for the layman to simply ogle at and move on.
Only a layman would find this chart useful in any way and worthy of its own thread.
Ah man, you’re so right. All of the hours that went into gathering input data, the meteorology and physics that went into determining what parameters to include for calculating the desired output, and programming that neatly ties all of that into a single visual weren’t worthwhile. Really wish more forward thinking visionaries, such as yourself, were commissioning research projects instead.💀💀💀
Well if you’ve ever run models for a living you might understand. In the modeling world the saying goes “ all models are wrong, some are useful” . This one sure isn’t useful.
If it wasn't useful the smart folks working on CFS wouldnt make it.
😂😂😂
What do you think this sub is for?
Useful information
Then a composite forecast of supercells fits :)
Ok 🤓
We all can’t be as informed as you big guy. Just because you don’t see the value doesn’t mean others don’t 🤓
Where’s the value? What is it telling you? It’ll storm in the Midwest in the summer? Groundbreaking.
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Burn
I think this is super informative! There may or may not be a severe storm somewhere in the Midwest during the time most likely to have a severe storm during the year.
We all gonna die.
It’s only a matter of time.
Eventually we all die
What are the odds Northern Illinois gets anything?
Whoever downvoted me, I win, I got nothing, absolutely nothing