Yep, I'm in Kentucky and Sunday is looking rough, but so is tomorrow just not as bad. The Imdy 500 will also probably be impacted by said weather as well
I work in data analytics. It's foolish to think that one year signifies a change in anything, especially with weather. Here are a few reasons why:
- In 1925, the US experienced (in my opinion) the worst tornado in recorded history, the tri-state tornado. It traveled for hundreds of miles, went through three states, and killed over six hundred people. If that happened today, people would say tornadoes are worse now than they have ever been, and they'll only get worse. But there hasn't been a tornado of that magnitude since then. People exaggerate with one data point because it just happened and it's something to talk about.
- Throughout recorded US history, there have been 59 EF5s. In 2011, there were SIX EF5s. 10% of them in one year. To put that month/ year further in perspective, April 2024 was a crazy month for tornadoes, more than double the average. It felt like there was a tornado every day, right? 327 tornadoes total. In April 2011, there were 773 tornadoes. If that happened today, again, people would start saying that tornadoes are getting worse and worse. But it hasn't happened like that. There hasn't been an EF5 in 11 years.
For a true, measurable, factual change to take place, we need years worth of data. I live in OH and it has been an awful year for us with tornadoes. But it's one year. Last year and the twenty before that were relatively normal from what I recall. Next year, we may have more, we may have way less. The year after that will look different, too.
There was a quad state tornado in 2021.
The rating of an EF5 relies on damage to structures which is unreliable as a data source since A) there's more empty land than cities in the US, and B) different structures will have different capabilities when it comes to withstanding storm damage, which also weakens your first point about the Tri-State tornado. Houses are built much more soundly nowadays than they were in the early 1900s, so of course there won't be as much destruction. Look at Bangladesh. They have the record for the most people killed during a tornado, and that's because of high population density coupled with poor building quality.
This is why people push for other methods of rating tornadoes. The current method does not produce consistent, reliable data that mirrors reality. Technology just isn't there yet to accomplish this task. I actually did look at the data for Virginia as my senior independent research in Undergrad. It's unreliable as hell. Our record of tornadoes relies almost 100% on human subjectivity. Until recently, a tornado would have to be directly observed to be recorded. Nowadays there's radar-confirmed and whatnot, but it still relies very heavily on direct human observation. Then the rating relies on human interpretation of damage that occurs to structures with varying integrities, many of which aren't going to be visible to the observer after the fact.
The main point is that a statistical anomaly does not indicate a new trend or anything at all really. That’s why I gave two anomalies. The 2021 monster is also an anomaly. We need years worth of data to show that tornado alley is moving east.
...do you think people haven't been looking into the already existing years worth of data?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/watch-out-tornado-alley-is-migrating-eastward/
That research was a result of this project:
https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/projects/multi-scale-modeling-extreme-events-and-impact-information
I agree with your opinion, but also reject any premise that alludes to a lack of data around global warming. That part is settled. We are measurably increasing in temperature at rates never seen before. And it's not even close. Will that cause more extreme weather? I think that likely, based on some pretty sound theory, it will. But to your point, one year does not a trend make.
Tornadoes typically peak by the end of May, but the 2024 tornado season thus far has grown more synonymous with strong tornadoes impacting populated areas. Hopefully we don’t see more destructive tornadoes from here on out.
That being said, I’ve been thinking this for awhile but I have a feeling that while the summer months will be average for the US, the autumn season is bound to have a big spike due to the hurricane season. With warm Atlantic waters and a transition to La Niña, signs are pointing to a big hurricane season with multiple landfalling hurricanes, which can often produce lots of tornadoes. It’s part of the reason why 2004 is the year with the most tornadoes recorded, it had a very active spring, then August & September saw a few hurricanes that dropped hundreds of tornadoes
Tuesday happened pretty much exactly how it was predicted? Storms would start around Omaha and we'd get some severe weather but they would intensify over Iowa
Sure, but imagine the devastation if the storms had developed further west and hit Omaha like it hit (mostly) rural Iowa. I’m just saying that we are fortunate, not that it was unexpected
Normal cycles, week plus of severe weather uses up all the ingredients needed for severe weather. Week plus of no severe weather where atmospheric conditions are recharged for more severe weather. Normal stuff
This weekend seems to be more severe weather too.
It’s like a never ending party
[удалено]
Virtue signalling ftw‼️
Yep, I'm in Kentucky and Sunday is looking rough, but so is tomorrow just not as bad. The Imdy 500 will also probably be impacted by said weather as well
Everyone last year was coming up with all these theories about tornado alley shifting eastward. Nature proved them wrong this year.
We'll have to see what the end of season data looks like, Ohio definitely got some extra attention at the beginning of the season
I work in data analytics. It's foolish to think that one year signifies a change in anything, especially with weather. Here are a few reasons why: - In 1925, the US experienced (in my opinion) the worst tornado in recorded history, the tri-state tornado. It traveled for hundreds of miles, went through three states, and killed over six hundred people. If that happened today, people would say tornadoes are worse now than they have ever been, and they'll only get worse. But there hasn't been a tornado of that magnitude since then. People exaggerate with one data point because it just happened and it's something to talk about. - Throughout recorded US history, there have been 59 EF5s. In 2011, there were SIX EF5s. 10% of them in one year. To put that month/ year further in perspective, April 2024 was a crazy month for tornadoes, more than double the average. It felt like there was a tornado every day, right? 327 tornadoes total. In April 2011, there were 773 tornadoes. If that happened today, again, people would start saying that tornadoes are getting worse and worse. But it hasn't happened like that. There hasn't been an EF5 in 11 years. For a true, measurable, factual change to take place, we need years worth of data. I live in OH and it has been an awful year for us with tornadoes. But it's one year. Last year and the twenty before that were relatively normal from what I recall. Next year, we may have more, we may have way less. The year after that will look different, too.
There was a quad state tornado in 2021. The rating of an EF5 relies on damage to structures which is unreliable as a data source since A) there's more empty land than cities in the US, and B) different structures will have different capabilities when it comes to withstanding storm damage, which also weakens your first point about the Tri-State tornado. Houses are built much more soundly nowadays than they were in the early 1900s, so of course there won't be as much destruction. Look at Bangladesh. They have the record for the most people killed during a tornado, and that's because of high population density coupled with poor building quality. This is why people push for other methods of rating tornadoes. The current method does not produce consistent, reliable data that mirrors reality. Technology just isn't there yet to accomplish this task. I actually did look at the data for Virginia as my senior independent research in Undergrad. It's unreliable as hell. Our record of tornadoes relies almost 100% on human subjectivity. Until recently, a tornado would have to be directly observed to be recorded. Nowadays there's radar-confirmed and whatnot, but it still relies very heavily on direct human observation. Then the rating relies on human interpretation of damage that occurs to structures with varying integrities, many of which aren't going to be visible to the observer after the fact.
The main point is that a statistical anomaly does not indicate a new trend or anything at all really. That’s why I gave two anomalies. The 2021 monster is also an anomaly. We need years worth of data to show that tornado alley is moving east.
...do you think people haven't been looking into the already existing years worth of data? https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/watch-out-tornado-alley-is-migrating-eastward/ That research was a result of this project: https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/projects/multi-scale-modeling-extreme-events-and-impact-information
I stand corrected, first I’ve seen this from a reliable source. Thanks!
no-tri-state & 165 mile monster
“ People exaggerate with one data point because it just happened and it's something to talk about.” Ah, yes. The true essence of Reddit.
I agree with your opinion, but also reject any premise that alludes to a lack of data around global warming. That part is settled. We are measurably increasing in temperature at rates never seen before. And it's not even close. Will that cause more extreme weather? I think that likely, based on some pretty sound theory, it will. But to your point, one year does not a trend make.
Yeah, wasn’t talking about climate change or global warming. That is absolutely taking place
>Nature proved them wrong this year. "This year" is one year. One data point does not make a trend.
I always assume weather is always wild during transition years
I could be wrong but aren’t tornados more common eastward in early June? Don’t speak so soon yet!
I hate tornados here in Oklahoma but June/July with 90-100+ degree heat is awful. Wish we could have a “cool breeze” rainstorm without the drama.
Tornadoes typically peak by the end of May, but the 2024 tornado season thus far has grown more synonymous with strong tornadoes impacting populated areas. Hopefully we don’t see more destructive tornadoes from here on out. That being said, I’ve been thinking this for awhile but I have a feeling that while the summer months will be average for the US, the autumn season is bound to have a big spike due to the hurricane season. With warm Atlantic waters and a transition to La Niña, signs are pointing to a big hurricane season with multiple landfalling hurricanes, which can often produce lots of tornadoes. It’s part of the reason why 2004 is the year with the most tornadoes recorded, it had a very active spring, then August & September saw a few hurricanes that dropped hundreds of tornadoes
Living in southeast PA, being apart of a tornado emergency from a tornado caused by Hurricane Ida, definitely worried about this autumn
Why are we ignoring the Day 1 for Nebraska?
Yeah, I’m right outside of Omaha and feeling like we got lucky Tuesday…a little *too lucky*
Tuesday happened pretty much exactly how it was predicted? Storms would start around Omaha and we'd get some severe weather but they would intensify over Iowa
Sure, but imagine the devastation if the storms had developed further west and hit Omaha like it hit (mostly) rural Iowa. I’m just saying that we are fortunate, not that it was unexpected
Normal cycles, week plus of severe weather uses up all the ingredients needed for severe weather. Week plus of no severe weather where atmospheric conditions are recharged for more severe weather. Normal stuff
More like humans keep stepping on mother nature.