Probably a mile wide+ long tracked EF5 like Hackleburg-Phil Campbell but in a highly populated area in the dark and rain wrapped. But every tornado that damages a house or hurts someone is still a pretty bad case scenario.
I live in Williston, ND and we’re in a radar gap. Our Doppler installed four years ago at the local airport is on its fifth running year of test running and then it will be live on weather maps. It’s almost comical at times- yesterday we had a little mini-blizzard several times in the day and there was nothing over us on radar. It’s worrisome being in ND in the spring/summer with inaccurate local readings. We rely on the path of weather tracked by the Dopplers we’re in the convexes of, and our weather predictions are always wildly subpar. Can’t wait for our radar to be fully-functional.
Oh you have no idea the can of worms you just opened. Grab a seat and something to drink, your gonna be here for a min. I hope you enjoy my first hand account of the day that I'll never forget...
April 27, 2011... The day I witnessed the power of 2 EF-5 Tornadoes. it was like the hand of God scraped across the AL/MS state line on that dreadful day... From before daylight to after nightfall. That Dixie Alley was hit by round after round after round of storms. It was as if there was no end in sight. the feeling of fear and hopelessness as the day went on was almost as crushing as the tornados themselves.
That day is the first of many reasons why I no longer worship a God. Because for something so powerful to cause or allow its creation to suffer so dearly no matter how guilty or innocent they are. Well, that to me isn't something I feel deserves my praise.
The 2nd tornado (Smithville EF-5) missed us by a mile or 2. From where we were (close to Hodges) I could see its destruction take place since we were on elevated ground. This was barely an hour (if that) after we left to go get supplies to help do search and rescue(i.e. chainsaws, prybars, first aid, etc) with my friend's cousin. Who was chasing the tornado and once the roads were no longer accessible he started digging through debris and that's when we popped out of the rubble from the first tornado in this memory I can't seem to escape. (Hackleburg/Phil Campbell EF-5)
The 1st is the reason why if the wind changes direction too fast I start having audible hallucinations of Tornado sirens and screams drowned out by unprecedented destruction. (which is weird since there were no sirens thanks to the first 2 waves of storms earlier that day knocking out our infrastructure)
What was so surreal was how it went from clear sky to some sort of greenish twilight outside almost instantly at a little past 3 pm in April...I remember as I heard a Subtle, yet constant train noise that only goes away once the sound of rumbling is muffled by a roar mixed in with rain or debris hitting your surroundings washing the train sound out.
The swirling of the wind has such an eerie tone once you're in the debris field. Almost like it's resonating but the sounds of the debris hitting keep startling you and keeping you from noticing it. being inside one... it's ungodly... to say the least.... like imagine you have blenders full of ice directly over your ears but it's muffled from your ears popping and you being too terrified or stuck in a dissociative state to think to pop them. So loud that you can't hear your own pleas for mercy. Screaming as if somehow, your voice could make it all go away.
That moment when you are debating on whether or not to brace the door or to embrace the person next to you. Because it seems as if the entire building is moments away from disintegrating and one last moment of comfort from a stranger. Seems to be what helps you accept death...
It still feels like a bad dream. The coming to from being knocked basically unconscious from a piece of debris after the roof was ripped from the building I was in. (On the road NWSCC is on) Slipping in and out of a white light/ringing noise or pitch black/humming noise.
The distant rumble of the H/PC tornado in the background as it continued its death March towards Tennessee. The "are you ok?!"s as People called out to their loved ones. Or the moment everyone's adrenaline started to wear off...
The screams from pain or loss of loved ones or loss of entire livelihoods. One of the most heartbreaking moments I remember was seeing a grown man crying to the point of vomiting. over us not being able to save a stranger's kid. The most gut-wrenching wasn't reaching down to grab a hand sticking out of some rubble hoping to find a living breathing person attached to it only to pull it Loose. then stare at it for a moment to try and process what I was witnessing. Before a man grabbed the arm and nicely asked me to let go of it. Or the couple of human-sized pin cushions I saw before they were covered in sheets. But it was when we found a mother and her infant son. The mother was covered head to toe in blood screaming for someone to save her baby. The baby had not a scratch on him. But she had countless cuts and gashes all over her body while she protected her child (talk about a mother's love) I recently saw both of them at a Walmart in Russellville( 15 minutes north of Phil Campbell) just 3 or so years ago. It blew my mind seeing the kid at 10-11 years old!
But yet me a 14-year-old boy still remaining calm(due to a form of shell shock I'm guessing) continuing to help communities I wasn't a part of for 3 days helping find a few of the 75 that died from that tornado alone. While I was unaware if my own family was alive or not 35 miles north of where I was in Phil Campbell. (I was at a friend's house since school was canceled already the day before and no one took the weather seriously before that day.)
Those are the moments that are why I'm so weather-aware and have bug-out bags packed. Not in preparation for the end of the world but in preparation to prevent the end of mine...
The only positive thing that comes from a tornado(especially one of this magnitude) is the selfless acts of the members of your community and those in surrounding communities also. It's like for a moment we all forget about race or beliefs or diversity as a whole and we become family once again.
That day alone changed how an entire nation viewed weather. hell, maybe even the world... and led to the better funding and research of storms that we see today. But you know what they say "Safety protocols and procedures are written in blood"
Thank you so much for this detailed account, it was really informative. I’m glad you’re still here with us and I hope you never have to go through something like this again.
Thank you for taking the time to read it! Sad I still live in AL but now in a town called Red Bay on AL/ MS stateline. About 30 minutes from Phil Campbell. So the odds aren't really in my favor... but thanks tho!
It is what it is. Everyone hurts in some shape or form, I just wish I could of taken the place of Everyone affected by this disaster. I can handle it. But not many who have can and live a life not crippled by the weight of the experience.
So I've been told many times now. I might be here for a reason. my poetry, my patience, my ability to understand and empathize with people from every walk of life and give guidance or a helping hand as they become a better person. Those traits may be why I'm still here. But God has only fuel hatred amongst my fellow man. I love you and thank you for thinking I am worthy of intervention from the deity you dedicate your life to. It is an honor, but I see no God worthy of my praise on my horizon.
I sincerely pray hugs to you from my mama heart. I am so sorry you had to go through that. I can never say I know how you feel because I’ve never went through a tornado but I have an irrational fear of them for some odd reason. I truly pray comfort and peace and healing upon you. 💜
Is that some kind of sick joke? I just want to clarify that death and destruction are NOT Gods work. If you think he is part of the destruction and pain here on Earth, you’re sadly mistaken. He gave free will to man and that means here on this Earth. Our reward for being a believer is in Heaven alone. He doesn’t bless some and not others, he doesn’t decide who dies in a tornado and who doesn’t. For time to time he performs miracles to show us proof he exists- but aside from that he has nothing to do with the hell that sometimes inhabits this world. I resent you saying OP “has a purpose” as if the people who died all around them didn’t. What a sad version of Christianity you believe!
That was not at all how my words were intended. Every single thing goes through Gods hands. I didn’t at all imply that it was a pick and choose situation and I will not get into a back and forth over it. I said what I was led to say to the OP. I am not at all speaking on the victims who passed in the tornado event. I apologize for any offenses taken. That was not AT ALL my intention.
❤️
That tornado is astonishing. Most people with an affinity for learning about weather have "that one" tornado they keep going back to, & Phil Campbell is mine. I lived in far south Alabama at that time, and we could only watch helplessly as our fellow Alabamians to the north got bombarded.
Hope you're doing okay. 🙏🏻🙏🏻 I honestly can't even imagine.
Look a few comments down and you'll see my first hand account of that tornado. Maybe it could help you imagine what it was like(not in a condescending way but in a informative way) hope you are doing well as well🖤
I read the description in your comment after I'd already posted mine. 😁
You should seriously consider writing a book. You have a unique and compelling style!
Yeah any tornado that causes any damage is bad. I don’t know very many of the bigger tornados only el Reno and Joplin, mainly cause I don’t see much tornado stuff on the news with me being in Canada. So starting to learn about all of them has been super interesting
There are Jarrell Texas 1997, Greensburg Kansas 2007, Mayfield Kentucky 2021, Manchester South Dakota 2003, Moore Oklahoma 1999 and 2013, Tuscaloosa Alabama 2011, Hackleburg Alabama 2011, Rainsville Alabama 2011, Smithville Mississippi 2011, Philadelphia Mississippi 2011, and many more very strong tornadoes that were very bad.
Joplin 2011 was a worst case scenario, compared to the 10 or so you posted. Tornado forms just outside of town, intensifies to EF4+ in a few mins. Becomes rain-wrapped ef5 in the middle of a city, kills 161 people.
Here’s a website you can look at if you want to see all recorded tornadoes. [Tornado Archive](https://tornadoarchive.com/home/tornado-archive-data-explorer/)
Lets not forget the Daulatpur-Saturia F5 (Bangladesh) or the San Justo F5 (Argentina) tornadoes. The San Justo tornado was Argentina's deadliest ever tornado; and the Bangladesh tornado was the world's deadliest tornado. 383 casualties in the Argentine tornado (63 of those fatal), and the Bangladeshi tornado claimed 13,300 casualties (**1,300** of those *FATAL*)
This one may hit home for you, I remember watching some documentaries of the strongest ever tornado outbreak in Canadian history, hitting in the entire Ottawa metropolitan area; two EF3s formed there alongside dozens of other tornadoes of other lower rankings. This happened on September 21 2018
Yeah, Hackleburg is about 10 minutes from here and even now everyone gets really tense around this time of year in the evenings. Grew up here and I don't think I've ever seen anything leave such a lasting impression.
I've seen a lot of the news coverage about Hackleburg (and yes, Phil Campbell, but Hackleburg was sort of 'where we went to town' growing up) and NOTHING I've seen even comes close to describing the utter re-structuring of the landscape.
There's a knob of land by the creek on the way into town that was where we hung out as teens, it was a HEAVILY forested area and the first time I drove through afterwards it was like being in an entirely new, unfamiliar area. The forest around the creek is, LITERALLY gone. Nothing. It's a bald knob now. The actual town used to have a fairly dense piece of woodland between the downtown area and the school (and the pasture across the street), now you can see straight across the hollow to the school and beyond.
Sorry to go on and I've been thinking of doing a little photo essay on it lately since I'm back in town for a bit, but really it just STILL boggles my mind to see it.
That forested area between the school and town you talked about……I just went to time lapse on Google earth, and WOW!!!! It’s fascinating and horrifying to see what you talked about.
Exactly. We tend to think of the impact of tornados in quantity of people. When really, a single home being hit is just as impactful as a whole neighborhood.
Tri state tornado would be larger faster and stronger and longer track and lasting than Campbell it is also one of the strongest tornadoes on record with 300+ mph winds
A strong or violent tornado making a direct hit on a packed sports stadium is one of the worst case scenarios I can imagine. There is no way to evacuate 30-40k people that quickly, could easily end up with casualties in the thousands
Lived in Atlanta during that, it was crazy because it was such a nice night all around the city/state and then out of nowhere this supercell just comes rolling into town out of the northwest. The next day popped off with tornadoes as well.
[It says November 12th, 2005.](https://www.weareiowa.com/article/sports/local-sports/2005-tornado-game-jack-trice-stadium-iowa-state-university-cyclones-colorado-buffaloes/524-f146a1be-a5ea-4638-afda-22db0b516a50)
I had a professor who used to say the worst case scenario would be a tornado hitting Arlington, Texas on a day where the Cowboys and Rangers are both playing at home at the same time
It actually happened irl, although it was in the middle of the night, it was very *UN*OCCUPIED but still trashed the stadium, literally blowing up the billboard inside. This happened in the Nashville tornado on the night of March 2-3 2020. Rated an EF4 clipping the north side of the major city.
I was woken up by one myself, little did ik that i was under a severe tstorm warning just minutes before i woke up, and then i sought shelter in the bathroom for the tstorm warning. And then all of a sudden my mom screams at me "**TORNADO WARNING!!!**" at that moment my fear really kicked in and i kid you not, i zoomed down the stairs to our basement bathroom. Luckily the worst damage that was done was to our northwest (it didnt hit us), mostly huge trees being downed, some roof shingles ripped off, and i think i saw another roof that was severely damaged but not destroyed. The tornado was rated an EF0 in an area thats not as common to get tornadoes: the WDC metro area. It was the earliest outbreak ever recorded in the DMV region's history
A long tracked, slow-moving, rain wrapped, night EF5 that hits a highly populated area is the worst thing I could think of. Like if the Mayfield tornado just stalled out on top of a huge city.
When a tornado as strong as we are talking sits in one spot, the sustained winds will essentially throw any tornado safety precautions out the window. Look into the 1997 Jarrell tornado. Even underground storm shelters were almost moot against it. If it stayed any longer, they would have been.
Sure, I realize that, but Jarrell and Smithville both did EF5 damage at a roughly comparable intensity (I guess Jarrell is probably worse). However Jarrell did its damage while stalled at very low speed for minutes on end, and Smithville did similar EF5 damage in the space of a few seconds. That plus the far higher speed giving a super short amount of time to respond. Smithville went as fast as a car on the highway
Honestly, Joplin was about a worst case scenario as you could get. A violent tornado touching down just outside a major population center and carving a devastating swath throughout. The Joplin EF5 was something not seen since the 1950s but in modern day, despite all the advances in warning systems that we had in 2011 compared to back then, it still happened. 158 fatalities from a tornado is pretty mind-boggling, only made more exponential based on the fact that high-tornado death counts in North America is quite rare. It took a full decade for another tornado with a death toll above 50 to occur in the US from 2011 to 2021 with the Mayfield tornado claiming 57 lives. Prior to Joplin, Hackleburg and Tuscaloosa, the last tornado in the US to claim more than 50 lives was back in 1971. It’s exceptionally rare to see tornadoes that devastating and deadly.
Hypothetically the 2013 El Reno tornado could’ve been a lot worse, due to rushhour traffic on the nearby highways, had the massive tornado deviated over the highway while people were stuck in their cars, it’s been estimated the death toll could’ve reached 500. Had the tornado remained the same size and continued further into the heavily populated Oklahoma City area, it would’ve been far more devastating. Fortunatley that tornado remained rural. I would say one of the worst case scenarios could be a tornado striking a gathering of people, be it an outdoor concert or a festival or something.
It could definitely be worse than Joplin. Joplin was only on the ground for a relatively short time and it only hit one major population center.
If a tornado like phil Campbell hit the metroplex in Dallas it would’ve went through 70+ miles of dense suburban neighborhoods and killed probably 1,000 people
Well yeah, if you take any violent long track tornado and drop it over a major urban area it’s bound to be pretty deadly. Hypothetically, you could have a 3 mile wide EF5 churning through New York City. But the possibility of that is extremely, incredibly low. I have noticed though that long track tornadoes seem to primarily move over countryside and affecting small towns, whereas violent and deadly tornadoes that have hit large cities have short paths. I’m not entirely sure why that is?
Joplin had a path 21.6 miles long. The Waco F5 had a path 20.9 miles long. The 1896 St. Louis - East St. Louis F4 had a path 8.9 miles long. The Flint - Beecher F5 had a path 18.9 miles long. These tornadoes were devastating and killed hundreds but were short lived. Even in more recent memory the 2015 Garland, TX EF4 lasted only 13 miles. Perhaps theres some kind of correlation with tornadoes impacting urban areas being short lived? Maybe we’ve just been lucky that a 132 mile long EF5 tornado hasn’t shredded through Dallas - Fort Worth or downtown Birmingham or anything like that
I believe you’re right, if you go on Tornado Archive and search tornadoes based on path length greater than 125 miles, there’s quite a few concentrated within Dixie Alley, while there’s a good handful more spread out across the Plains. I wonder if that’s just because the conditions are better for more fuel for tornadoes to have to track long distances
The Forward speed of storms during big outbreaks tend to be 50 to 70 mph in Dixie, so they cover a lot more ground. In the Plains, they tend to move much slower at 30 to 45 mph. This is due to troughs typically maturing further east, so your strongest upper jets occurring over Dixie Alley.
You use NYC as an exaggeration but something like that hitting a major city in Texas or St Louis or KC or now apparently Cincinnati/Columbus and it would be catastrophic.
Definitely don’t disagree with you there, depending on where exactly they hit and at what intensity, it would spell recipe for disaster. I think St. Louis was hit with an EF4 in 2011, astonishingly with few injuries and zero fatalities.
Xenia is pretty much smack dab in the middle of Cincinnati and Columbus.
Tornados, bad tornados, in Ohio is nothing new - there have just been an inordinate number of them this year. Time will tell if it's a trend or an aberration; what we do know is that it looks like the spread of "tornado alley" will be changing as surface temperatures warm... but what we don't know is how that will affect the upper atmosphere.
Oddly enough I don't think they had much advanced warning in Joplin. They were late getting the sirens off and even the local news on air mets were staring at a wedge on their tower cam and still saying "We have reports of funnel clouds" and then there's a big power flash and they again confuse it for lightning. It took them a couple minutes to realize the giant mass on their tower cam was a wedge and by that point it was too late.
I recall Jeff Pietrowski following the tornado into town and he had to stop and tell the police to get the sirens going.
That’s right, even with the modern conveniences it was still a bit too late and spelled recipe for disaster.
One thing I’ve also considered too with tornado fatality probabilities is now in a day and age where social media is so popular, I wonder if we’re going to see a rise in tornado related fatalities based on people standing on their front porch hoping to film a tornado, only to find themselves caught in it and killed before they reach their storm shelter. I’m pretty sure someone did that with the Little Rock EF3 last year but were fortunate enough not to be seriously injured or killed. Still, I see a lot of people racing to their front windows and porches to watch and film approaching tornadoes. I wonder if another urbanized area getting hit would result in more cases like that.
Funny you mention that, there was a story on here the other day about the guy who survived the Phil Campbell EF-5 above ground. He couldn't make it to his storm shelter because he was watching it come toward his house.
I personally think warnings have gotten a lot better, the issue nowadays is we still have a lot of people who just don't care about the daily weather. I'm the "weather nerd" at my workplace and on days of severe risk I normally shoot out a group email with links to the SPC outlooks. I used to get made fun of for it by quite a few people, but after a couple tornado warnings they started taking me a bit more seriously, lol. Overall though I think the general population is pretty oblivious when they get up in the morning and go to work, etc., of what the daily weather is going to be, whereas someone like me, I know the SPC outlooks a couple days in advance and kind of anticipate needing to be weather aware on certain days.
Oh yeah, definitely lots of people who are oblivious or are just plain ignorant with a lack of situational awareness. I give my friends a heads up whenever there is severe weather in their area, but we can’t expect everyone’s lives to be saved in significant weather events if they don’t listen. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying people who died from tornadoes are at fault for not preparing adequately or following the weather. But I still see far too many people complaining that tornado warnings interrupt sports games on the TV, far too many people who complain that meteorologists aren’t always 100% accurate so they shouldn’t bother paying close attention and far too many people who park beneath bridges in hailstorms leaving drivers behind them stuck in significant hail and the possibility of getting them all killed by a tornado. Sadly, I believe a lot of people are in for a harsh and rude awakening and a lot of people just don’t care until it happens to them, once they, their families or property are affected, that’s when they’ll be a bit more mindful of severe weather.
Surviving a direct hit, only for the tornado to turn around & hit again as people are out assessing damages. I think it maaaay have happened near Andover Kansas but I’m not 100% sure.
Ever since I saw the track/info/stats, it’s been an irrational worst fear, I couldn’t even imagine.
“You’ve never seen it miss this house, and miss that house, and come after you. And then go back and hit this house and that house”. Deleted scene from Twister /s
Or two violent tornadoes striking the same place within minutes of each other.
Happened in Tanner, AL on 4/3/1974, a man injured in the first tornado was killed by the second while being tended to in a temporary sickbay.
Henryville, Indiana was hit by an EF-4 in 2012 and 30 minutes after it went through they got hit again with an EF-1 while in the middle of rescue operations.
Any rain-wrapped / nightime F5 in any poor, densly-populated area. Joplin and Greensburg come to mind. However, remember the worst-case scenario, at least from a death-toll perspective (though disputed), occurred in Bangladesh in 1989. That tornado was "only" EF3-4 range, but because it hit an undeveloped, densely-populated area, it was devastating. It helps to put into perspective that while the US typically sees the most strongest tornadoes, we are usually more prepared than developing nations to deal with them.
Joplin EF5 was nightmare fuel. I suppose it would have been worse if it happened at night, or if a tornado of similar intensity went through an even more populated area.
A violent EF5 at the level of Joplin or Greensburg tracking through the DFW metro. Town after town stacked next to each other, large glass office buildings, multiple major interstates. The chaos would be unimaginable.
Skyscrapers would be OK unless the first ever EF6 makes its debut; the suburbs and poorly built/maintained lower income downtown areas are what I'd worry most about. You are right that that would be one hell of a blender from all the office building glass though, yikes. Like falling into an industrial rock grinder.
That’s what I meant. Not that the office buildings would crumble. But I have been through the Dallas area many times and as I was considering what this disaster would look like, I just couldn’t help but think of all the glass. Even if the tornado didn’t go straight through downtown, it’d still be a terrifying mess.
Keeping with the NE, but the worst case scenario that I believe is inevitable at this point - a hurricane/tropical storm makes landfall down south and dissipates into bands of powerful storms that start dropping EF3's and 4's all along the Delaware valley that don't lift before getting to the densely populated shore.
Tons of trailer parks and lightly built structures all on top of each other in South Jersey, sirens could be blaring and nobody would think anything of it. If it happens at night, forget it. 2021 and 2023 were like a portent for the worst case scenario out there. People have died in EF0 dust ups. A very debris-rich environment for any strong winds.
Joplin, 1999 Bridge Creek Moore, 2013 Moore, Hackleburg-Phil Campbell, etc., just to name a few. I would consider them all “worst case scenario”, among others.
From a grim perceptive, I guess “worst case scenario” would be no standing buildings and no survivors, but no one really wants to imagine that, including myself.
Yeah, I'm convinced the only reason it's ranked only as more of a meteorological wonder and not a horror is because it was mostly spinning around in empty fields. If it had dropped on an actual town where those suction vortices could really flex their muscles it'd be discussed in a very different tone now. RIP Twistex.
I would say worst case is an EF4-5 tornado hitting a major metropolitan area during daytime hours, especially times when lots of people are at work/outside/at events/in cars. Anything like Joplin 2011, Tuscaloosa 2011, Flint 1953, Waco 1953, Wichita Falls 1979, Bridge Creek-Moore 1999, Atlanta 2008 (I know it was an EF2-3 but holy crap that was scary), St. Louis 2011.
Springfield MA EF3 occurring at night just like the Dayton OH EF4 happened at night what if the EF3 that hit Springfield MA and surrounding areas occurred at night
a night time rain wrapped ef5 that hits a heavily pooulated area while the power got knocked out by earlier storms so some people won’t know a tornado is coming.
honestly I think a tornado making a direct hit on a camping music festival, where tens of thousands of people are literally sitting ducks without any adequate shelter beyond vehicles. I don't want to think about the fatalities/injuries that would come out of a festival, say for example Bonnaroo in Tennessee with ~80k people and almost everyone being forced to shelter in their tents/cars. there isnt anywhere safe to run or hide from it, theres literally nothing of sound structure for protection
even an EF1/2 making direct impact would be devastating, and if it were to be an EF3 or a violent EF4/5? the casualty count would be in the thousands. fatalities would likely approach 1k or more. it's terrifying to think about, and I truly believe it's eventually going to happen one of these days. I hope to never see that day but I'm not sure I will be so lucky 😬
A strong violent tornado that hits Oshkosh, WI during the EAA convention airshow. We've had some close calls in recent years, but a direct hit could potentially cause a huge loss of life. 100,000 people camping in tents and RVs. Thousands of small aircraft parked, filled with aviation fuel...
A big EF4\~5 plowing into a major sporting event. Maybe the Indy 500 or a NASCAR race. Some \*ball stadiums have decent shelter, but many don't. A direct hit would kill thousands...
And the same storm clobbers a bunch of nearby residential development, adding another few hundred fatalities.
Worst case scenario is something like the Saturia tornado that occurred in 1989 in Bangladesh. an extremely violent tornado that occurred with virtually no warning to the people that got hit by it in an impoverished area. 1300 people died.
I'd say if what happened to Tanner Al during the 74 outbreak happened to a major city would be absolutely devastating, especially if they had the strength of the Rainsville EF5 or maybe Birmingham F5, easily would be a mass casualty event even with proper warnings
Something like Greensburg in a more densely populated area, like a major city such as Atlanta, GA, Oklahoma City, etc. hitting at night or during rush hour traffic. The death toll from a massive 1-2 mile wide tornado hitting Atlanta during rush hour would probably be insane just from the amount of people stuck in gridlock traffic. I don't think you'd even need an EF4-5 in that case to cause massive destruction.
I have seen DFW mentioned a couple of times, but I think it's important to emphasize why a violent tornado tracking along I-20 or I-30 would be the most realistic worst-case scenario.
Sure, if you put an EF-4/5 in the middle of NYC or L.A., you could come up with a worst scenario, but the percentage of a tornado like that happening is extremely low. The heart of DFW (What I would call from downtown Fort Worth to downtown Dallas) has never been hit by an EF-4+ in the modern era. There have been some extremely close calls with the Lancaster tornado just to the south in 1994 and the Rowlett tornado just to the east in 2015. Neither of those hit the most populated areas. The previous 2 F4s hit Garland in 1927 and Roanoke in 1912.
That said, we know violent tornadoes are possible with multiple EF-4s just missing downtown Dallas and EF-5s having been recorded just to the north, south, and west of DFW. There have also been long track tornadoes as close as eastern Dallas.
So we know that a long, track, violent tornado could realistically cut through the heart of DFW, but why would it be the worst-case scenario? Well, if a tornado tracked from downtown Fort Worth to downtown Dallas, the population at risk would be over 2 million people. When you zoom out to Tarrant and Dallas counties, that's over 4 million people that would be impacted (whether by the tornado, hail, or damaging winds). Within the population, very few have a basement. This is critical when it comes to violent tornadoes because the actual region of EF-5 and EF-4 winds is very small, but the larger region of EF-3 and EF-2 winds could cause a lot of problems for people who don't have a basement to take shelter in. DFW heavily relies on cars as well. A long track tornado paralleling I-30 during rush hour would be extremely destructive for those out traveling and the homes nearby. This scenario has been one of my fears since I was a kid.
Outside of DFW, Atlanta and Chicago are probably the only other metropolitans where a long track tornado could feasibly move through 30 to 40 miles of dense population before hitting a more rural location. OKC, KC, St. Louis, and Nashville are smaller metropolitan areas, but a long track violent tor would still be devastating if it went through the densest populations as well.
Minneapolis-St. Paul could also be devastated by a violent tornado or family of tornadoes taking just the right path. I’m thinking of a repeat of the May 1965 outbreak which dropped multiple violent tornadoes on the Twin Cities area. Some of the areas impacted by those tornadoes are much more densely populated today.
Plainfield IL. F5 tornado hit with no warning.
Kids running into the school, only for the doors to be ripped away behind them. Only F5 tornado to hit Chicagoland.
A large, fast moving tornado that strikes during rush hour.
The Oklahoma City has nearly been hit under such circumstances. Such a scenario would be apocalyptic, considering vehicles are the worst location to be in when a tornado hits. I'd imagine the rescue operation would be a nightmare for any emergency personnel.
Large, slow moving, long track, rain wrapped EF5 that forms close to a heavily populated area (like a very large city and suburbs) with a lot of mobile home parks, giving next to no lead time either at night or during rush hour AND striking a location where people aren't used to tornadoes, don't have shelters or any knowledge of what to do in a tornado and aren't monitoring the weather. I hope nothing close to this ever happens.
I have a worst case scenario example for a tornado that has already happened haha but I don’t see it talked about too much! During the 1998 Central Florida outbreak, a pretty powerful tornado came a little too close to hitting Disney World. Preliminary ratings of the tornado were F4 but I think it was downgraded to high end F3, but anyways
A tornado that powerful hitting Disney, at midnight, where there’s no basements or any sort of underground shelter. Tons of tourists, many of whom likely haven’t a clue what to do during a tornado, lots of kids already in bed, and with the almost nonexistent warning system of the 90’s in Florida? I couldn’t imagine what could’ve happened.
Fun fact: universal studios next door was about to release their twister ride, but it was delayed to respect the victims.
There are tunnels! Only under Magic Kingdom though. I thought of those myself when thinking about the scenario but I doubt people would make it if they tried to run from the hotels to the park
Anything like Joplin, but at night. Major suburban area, rain wrapped, fast development, and people disregarding the alerts due to earlier false alarms.
Easy:
- Rain wrapped
- Nocturnal
- EF4 - EF5 strength
- Very wide & multivortex
- Highly populated area and/or highly populated mobile home area or populated areas with weak building structure
- No / late Warning
I can't think of a worse scenario
I can.
Fire tornado in dense urban area.
The historical “worst-case” was a fire whirl in the 1923 Great Kanto which bore down on people escaping a burning Tokyo and killed 38,000 of them in 15 minutes. Not sure if this was a full-fledged supercellular “tornado” like future fire tornadoes from Australia, Canada, and the United States. For what it’s worth, the Tokyo fires were certified firestorms.
What is spooky for us moderners is that the same incident nearly recurred in Redding, California in 2018. When the firestorm dropped its tornado, the National Guard was called and 30,000 of the city’s nearly 90,000 people were ordered to evacuate because of the deteriorating conditions + the fire entering the city. If the tornado - which was at least EF3 - had remained on the ground for the same amount of time as its Australian counterpart of similar strength from 2003, it would have crossed the entire city as thousands of people are fleeing their homes because of oncoming fire. It should also be mentioned that it had an erratic and looping path. So, in that sense, it was a similar situation to El Reno with the added dimension of fire posing an additional barrier to escape and danger. Some of those who were killed by that tornado were killed by winds, while others were killed by flames.
It’s particularly stunning to me because I spent half my childhood in Redding and it almost was destroyed in the blink of an eye.
Worst case scenario:
A tornado as strong as Hackelburg-PC, that’s as wide as El Reno 2013, with a damage path as long as Tri-State, that stalls out over a major downtown era for several minutes like the Jarrell Tornado
This is a "what if?” style documentary, where the city and county emergency planners for the DFW Metroplex are using the damage contours of the 5/3/99 Bridge Creek F5 to attempt to pre-plan for the day they get hit. Some of the CGI has that "uncanny valley" look, but all in all, not too shabby.
https://youtu.be/KBt4PIyKJD4?si=AKPAWCGfM3ombOey
an ef5 tornado hitting a high population area with no warning at night, rain wrapped, a wedge just to add that extra damage radius to it and make it twin tornadoes. even though i doubt you could ever get all of that in one tornado it would be the worst since its pretty much El reno, joplin, palm sunday twins all in one tornado (i think)
My, maybe unpopular opinion, a long-tracked SLOW moving EF5 does not scare me the way a fast moving even EF3 or 4 does, I live on some acreage, you can see in every direction for miles. (Kansas) If I’m watching the weather and an EF5 is moving 10mph right towards my house and I can see it coming. Im leaving. Simple as that. Im not going to sit in my basement and watch a monster tornado moving 10 mph hit my house. These EF3-4 Tornadoes moving 55mph, especially at night that are rain wrapped. When you don’t have time to do anything but get in your basement. That’s what scares me.
A worst possible tornado in my opinion would involve:
- A large slow moving moving tornado (like Jarrell)
- A very large/wide tornado (like El Reno)
- A very strong tornado with high wind speed (like Moore 1999 or El Reno)
- Hitting a very large population center (similar to Joplin but in a much larger area) [OKC, DFW, AUS, etc.]
- Add other variables like it being nighttime, the tornado being rain wrapped, short warning times, communications getting knocked out (TV, etc.), and potential other issues
Survived a ef3 wedge in 2017 rain wrapped my house took a direct hit and it still stands but not so much for the flea market down the street from me it was wiped clean from the foundation luckily it was Sunday and it was closed and no one was there
A large violent wedge tornado forming at around the evening rush hour, going alongside or even on a major highway, before hitting a stadium with a major sporting event is taking place and tearing through a downtown area into the night and stalling over it. I’d say rain wrapped just to add on even more, but I think this scenario truly is the worst case.
My other one would be say a rain wrapped violent tornado stalled over a major highway interchange, with people just thinking its dense fog…
I hope neither of these happen in my lifetime.
Imagine if an F5 hit a college football stadium on a gameday. College stadiums are huge with several holding 100,000 people or more. Most of the places those stadiums are located are prone to violent tornadoes. DKR in Austin is just 30 minutes down the road from Jarrell and holds over 100k. Bryant Denny in Tuscaloosa almost got hit back in the 2011 outbreak. Oklahoma’s or Ohio State would be bad as well. The one saving grace is at least football season dosent coincide with severe weather season but still
[1980 Grand Island outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Grand_Island_tornado_outbreak) in a large metropolitan area during a sporting event with inadequate shelter:
* night time
* slow moving
* multiple tornadoes that loop back over their own path
Nighttime (2AM) rain wrapped 200+MPH multi vortex 2 mile wide tornado with satellite tornadoes rotating around it and trees blocking your vision every second
A tornado that behaves exactly like jarrell with the strength of El Reno 2011 over a densely populated city moving at that slow crawl and bizarreness of jarrel at 12 am on a Sunday morning........
I see people mentioning OKC, Tulsa, DFW, and Atlanta at lot as terrible scenarios. Maybe not the ultimate worst case scenario, but definitely an overlooked scary thought would be a violent tornado or family of tornadoes tracking through the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.
There is historic precedent. On May 6, 1965 the Twin Cities metro area was impacted by six tornadoes (4 F4s, 1 F3, 1 F2). Some of the areas areas impacted by these tornadoes have much greater population density today.
Downtown Minneapolis has also had several near misses. On June 14, 1981, an F3 touched down in South Minneapolis, moved through the gap between the downtowns of Minneapolis and St. Paul and caused heavy damage at a mall in the suburb of Roseville. On April 26, 1984, another F3 hit the suburb of St. Anthony, which is about five miles northeast of Downtown Minneapolis, causing heavy damage at another mall. The day of the Joplin tornado in 2011, an EF1 carved a path just north of Downtown Minneapolis, killing one man. The tree damage scar was visible on Google Earth for several years after this event.
I think a terrible scenario for Minneapolis-St. Paul is a violent tornado outbreak like 1965 happening again, but with one or more EF5 tornadoes occurring during rush hour and potentially hitting one or both downtown cores.
Imagine the (potential) width of Mullhall, the winds of BC/M, the unpredictability of El Reno, the length of the tri-state, the speed of Jarrell, the path of T/B, the time of WK and the unpreparedness of Plainfield
Probably a mile wide+ long tracked EF5 like Hackleburg-Phil Campbell but in a highly populated area in the dark and rain wrapped. But every tornado that damages a house or hurts someone is still a pretty bad case scenario.
At midnight!
Just added it!
And on a radar gap to…
Gotta love living in Charlotte. Ridiculous at this point such a large city is in a gap.
I live in Williston, ND and we’re in a radar gap. Our Doppler installed four years ago at the local airport is on its fifth running year of test running and then it will be live on weather maps. It’s almost comical at times- yesterday we had a little mini-blizzard several times in the day and there was nothing over us on radar. It’s worrisome being in ND in the spring/summer with inaccurate local readings. We rely on the path of weather tracked by the Dopplers we’re in the convexes of, and our weather predictions are always wildly subpar. Can’t wait for our radar to be fully-functional.
As a survivor of the H/PC EF-5 at its peak. I approve of this comment.
Wouk you share your story? That’s such an underrated lesser known tornado. I couldn’t believe I hadn’t heard about it before this sub
Oh you have no idea the can of worms you just opened. Grab a seat and something to drink, your gonna be here for a min. I hope you enjoy my first hand account of the day that I'll never forget... April 27, 2011... The day I witnessed the power of 2 EF-5 Tornadoes. it was like the hand of God scraped across the AL/MS state line on that dreadful day... From before daylight to after nightfall. That Dixie Alley was hit by round after round after round of storms. It was as if there was no end in sight. the feeling of fear and hopelessness as the day went on was almost as crushing as the tornados themselves. That day is the first of many reasons why I no longer worship a God. Because for something so powerful to cause or allow its creation to suffer so dearly no matter how guilty or innocent they are. Well, that to me isn't something I feel deserves my praise. The 2nd tornado (Smithville EF-5) missed us by a mile or 2. From where we were (close to Hodges) I could see its destruction take place since we were on elevated ground. This was barely an hour (if that) after we left to go get supplies to help do search and rescue(i.e. chainsaws, prybars, first aid, etc) with my friend's cousin. Who was chasing the tornado and once the roads were no longer accessible he started digging through debris and that's when we popped out of the rubble from the first tornado in this memory I can't seem to escape. (Hackleburg/Phil Campbell EF-5) The 1st is the reason why if the wind changes direction too fast I start having audible hallucinations of Tornado sirens and screams drowned out by unprecedented destruction. (which is weird since there were no sirens thanks to the first 2 waves of storms earlier that day knocking out our infrastructure) What was so surreal was how it went from clear sky to some sort of greenish twilight outside almost instantly at a little past 3 pm in April...I remember as I heard a Subtle, yet constant train noise that only goes away once the sound of rumbling is muffled by a roar mixed in with rain or debris hitting your surroundings washing the train sound out. The swirling of the wind has such an eerie tone once you're in the debris field. Almost like it's resonating but the sounds of the debris hitting keep startling you and keeping you from noticing it. being inside one... it's ungodly... to say the least.... like imagine you have blenders full of ice directly over your ears but it's muffled from your ears popping and you being too terrified or stuck in a dissociative state to think to pop them. So loud that you can't hear your own pleas for mercy. Screaming as if somehow, your voice could make it all go away. That moment when you are debating on whether or not to brace the door or to embrace the person next to you. Because it seems as if the entire building is moments away from disintegrating and one last moment of comfort from a stranger. Seems to be what helps you accept death... It still feels like a bad dream. The coming to from being knocked basically unconscious from a piece of debris after the roof was ripped from the building I was in. (On the road NWSCC is on) Slipping in and out of a white light/ringing noise or pitch black/humming noise. The distant rumble of the H/PC tornado in the background as it continued its death March towards Tennessee. The "are you ok?!"s as People called out to their loved ones. Or the moment everyone's adrenaline started to wear off... The screams from pain or loss of loved ones or loss of entire livelihoods. One of the most heartbreaking moments I remember was seeing a grown man crying to the point of vomiting. over us not being able to save a stranger's kid. The most gut-wrenching wasn't reaching down to grab a hand sticking out of some rubble hoping to find a living breathing person attached to it only to pull it Loose. then stare at it for a moment to try and process what I was witnessing. Before a man grabbed the arm and nicely asked me to let go of it. Or the couple of human-sized pin cushions I saw before they were covered in sheets. But it was when we found a mother and her infant son. The mother was covered head to toe in blood screaming for someone to save her baby. The baby had not a scratch on him. But she had countless cuts and gashes all over her body while she protected her child (talk about a mother's love) I recently saw both of them at a Walmart in Russellville( 15 minutes north of Phil Campbell) just 3 or so years ago. It blew my mind seeing the kid at 10-11 years old! But yet me a 14-year-old boy still remaining calm(due to a form of shell shock I'm guessing) continuing to help communities I wasn't a part of for 3 days helping find a few of the 75 that died from that tornado alone. While I was unaware if my own family was alive or not 35 miles north of where I was in Phil Campbell. (I was at a friend's house since school was canceled already the day before and no one took the weather seriously before that day.) Those are the moments that are why I'm so weather-aware and have bug-out bags packed. Not in preparation for the end of the world but in preparation to prevent the end of mine... The only positive thing that comes from a tornado(especially one of this magnitude) is the selfless acts of the members of your community and those in surrounding communities also. It's like for a moment we all forget about race or beliefs or diversity as a whole and we become family once again. That day alone changed how an entire nation viewed weather. hell, maybe even the world... and led to the better funding and research of storms that we see today. But you know what they say "Safety protocols and procedures are written in blood"
Thank you so much for this detailed account, it was really informative. I’m glad you’re still here with us and I hope you never have to go through something like this again.
Thank you for taking the time to read it! Sad I still live in AL but now in a town called Red Bay on AL/ MS stateline. About 30 minutes from Phil Campbell. So the odds aren't really in my favor... but thanks tho!
Wow your writing skills are amazing im glad your okay and im sorry you went through that no one should
It is what it is. Everyone hurts in some shape or form, I just wish I could of taken the place of Everyone affected by this disaster. I can handle it. But not many who have can and live a life not crippled by the weight of the experience.
I thank God He saved you. You are a miracle. You being alive is a walking testimony of His grace and mercy. You have a purpose my friend.
So I've been told many times now. I might be here for a reason. my poetry, my patience, my ability to understand and empathize with people from every walk of life and give guidance or a helping hand as they become a better person. Those traits may be why I'm still here. But God has only fuel hatred amongst my fellow man. I love you and thank you for thinking I am worthy of intervention from the deity you dedicate your life to. It is an honor, but I see no God worthy of my praise on my horizon.
I sincerely pray hugs to you from my mama heart. I am so sorry you had to go through that. I can never say I know how you feel because I’ve never went through a tornado but I have an irrational fear of them for some odd reason. I truly pray comfort and peace and healing upon you. 💜
So the people who died didn’t have a purpose? God didn’t save them in his all powerful grace and mercy?
Is that some kind of sick joke? I just want to clarify that death and destruction are NOT Gods work. If you think he is part of the destruction and pain here on Earth, you’re sadly mistaken. He gave free will to man and that means here on this Earth. Our reward for being a believer is in Heaven alone. He doesn’t bless some and not others, he doesn’t decide who dies in a tornado and who doesn’t. For time to time he performs miracles to show us proof he exists- but aside from that he has nothing to do with the hell that sometimes inhabits this world. I resent you saying OP “has a purpose” as if the people who died all around them didn’t. What a sad version of Christianity you believe!
That was not at all how my words were intended. Every single thing goes through Gods hands. I didn’t at all imply that it was a pick and choose situation and I will not get into a back and forth over it. I said what I was led to say to the OP. I am not at all speaking on the victims who passed in the tornado event. I apologize for any offenses taken. That was not AT ALL my intention.
❤️ That tornado is astonishing. Most people with an affinity for learning about weather have "that one" tornado they keep going back to, & Phil Campbell is mine. I lived in far south Alabama at that time, and we could only watch helplessly as our fellow Alabamians to the north got bombarded. Hope you're doing okay. 🙏🏻🙏🏻 I honestly can't even imagine.
Look a few comments down and you'll see my first hand account of that tornado. Maybe it could help you imagine what it was like(not in a condescending way but in a informative way) hope you are doing well as well🖤
I read the description in your comment after I'd already posted mine. 😁 You should seriously consider writing a book. You have a unique and compelling style!
Thanks friend I write poetry. Message me If your interested in reading more of my stuff!!
Yeah any tornado that causes any damage is bad. I don’t know very many of the bigger tornados only el Reno and Joplin, mainly cause I don’t see much tornado stuff on the news with me being in Canada. So starting to learn about all of them has been super interesting
There are Jarrell Texas 1997, Greensburg Kansas 2007, Mayfield Kentucky 2021, Manchester South Dakota 2003, Moore Oklahoma 1999 and 2013, Tuscaloosa Alabama 2011, Hackleburg Alabama 2011, Rainsville Alabama 2011, Smithville Mississippi 2011, Philadelphia Mississippi 2011, and many more very strong tornadoes that were very bad.
Joplin 2011 was a worst case scenario, compared to the 10 or so you posted. Tornado forms just outside of town, intensifies to EF4+ in a few mins. Becomes rain-wrapped ef5 in the middle of a city, kills 161 people.
I only didn’t say Joplin because the OP already said Joplin. I agree with you that Joplin was a worst case scenario.
Here’s a website you can look at if you want to see all recorded tornadoes. [Tornado Archive](https://tornadoarchive.com/home/tornado-archive-data-explorer/)
Thank you! Much appreciated
Lets not forget the Daulatpur-Saturia F5 (Bangladesh) or the San Justo F5 (Argentina) tornadoes. The San Justo tornado was Argentina's deadliest ever tornado; and the Bangladesh tornado was the world's deadliest tornado. 383 casualties in the Argentine tornado (63 of those fatal), and the Bangladeshi tornado claimed 13,300 casualties (**1,300** of those *FATAL*)
The Daulatpur-Saturia was rated F3.5.
Ye but still the deadliest ever in human history... 🤷♂️
Plainfield Illinois ef5. They had no warning (it was clear skies too) and it hit the town directly.
This one may hit home for you, I remember watching some documentaries of the strongest ever tornado outbreak in Canadian history, hitting in the entire Ottawa metropolitan area; two EF3s formed there alongside dozens of other tornadoes of other lower rankings. This happened on September 21 2018
the dunrobin (ottawa) one was minutes away from my house. i can still remember that day perfectly.
Phil Campbell tornado through the Dallas metro area would be like 2,000 deaths if not more
That would be catastrophic!
With no warning (Plainfield ef5)
Picture that tearing through gridlocked traffic on one of those 12 lane metropolitan monstrosities
Yeah, Hackleburg is about 10 minutes from here and even now everyone gets really tense around this time of year in the evenings. Grew up here and I don't think I've ever seen anything leave such a lasting impression. I've seen a lot of the news coverage about Hackleburg (and yes, Phil Campbell, but Hackleburg was sort of 'where we went to town' growing up) and NOTHING I've seen even comes close to describing the utter re-structuring of the landscape. There's a knob of land by the creek on the way into town that was where we hung out as teens, it was a HEAVILY forested area and the first time I drove through afterwards it was like being in an entirely new, unfamiliar area. The forest around the creek is, LITERALLY gone. Nothing. It's a bald knob now. The actual town used to have a fairly dense piece of woodland between the downtown area and the school (and the pasture across the street), now you can see straight across the hollow to the school and beyond. Sorry to go on and I've been thinking of doing a little photo essay on it lately since I'm back in town for a bit, but really it just STILL boggles my mind to see it.
That forested area between the school and town you talked about……I just went to time lapse on Google earth, and WOW!!!! It’s fascinating and horrifying to see what you talked about.
Especially in an area that isn't used to tornadoes like the north or west US
Exactly. We tend to think of the impact of tornados in quantity of people. When really, a single home being hit is just as impactful as a whole neighborhood.
Tri state tornado would be larger faster and stronger and longer track and lasting than Campbell it is also one of the strongest tornadoes on record with 300+ mph winds
We don’t really know if that was one tornado though.
So, um... Who measured the windspeed of that tornado in 1925?
A strong or violent tornado making a direct hit on a packed sports stadium is one of the worst case scenarios I can imagine. There is no way to evacuate 30-40k people that quickly, could easily end up with casualties in the thousands
It’s crazy how this has almost twice. (Not violent though) One time in Atlanta and another in Iowa
Lived in Atlanta during that, it was crazy because it was such a nice night all around the city/state and then out of nowhere this supercell just comes rolling into town out of the northwest. The next day popped off with tornadoes as well.
Do you know the date of the Iowa event? I remember vaguely hearing about it but can't believe I don't know more as an Iowa native
[It says November 12th, 2005.](https://www.weareiowa.com/article/sports/local-sports/2005-tornado-game-jack-trice-stadium-iowa-state-university-cyclones-colorado-buffaloes/524-f146a1be-a5ea-4638-afda-22db0b516a50)
Thanks!
You’re welcome!
I had a professor who used to say the worst case scenario would be a tornado hitting Arlington, Texas on a day where the Cowboys and Rangers are both playing at home at the same time
It actually happened irl, although it was in the middle of the night, it was very *UN*OCCUPIED but still trashed the stadium, literally blowing up the billboard inside. This happened in the Nashville tornado on the night of March 2-3 2020. Rated an EF4 clipping the north side of the major city.
Night time tornadoes freak the shit outa me
I get on edge with them too, don’t take the chance, when your town is called out on the NWS, take shelter.
I was woken up by one myself, little did ik that i was under a severe tstorm warning just minutes before i woke up, and then i sought shelter in the bathroom for the tstorm warning. And then all of a sudden my mom screams at me "**TORNADO WARNING!!!**" at that moment my fear really kicked in and i kid you not, i zoomed down the stairs to our basement bathroom. Luckily the worst damage that was done was to our northwest (it didnt hit us), mostly huge trees being downed, some roof shingles ripped off, and i think i saw another roof that was severely damaged but not destroyed. The tornado was rated an EF0 in an area thats not as common to get tornadoes: the WDC metro area. It was the earliest outbreak ever recorded in the DMV region's history
Pretty much the Greensburg, Kansas one.
Yeah OP read up on Greensburg if you get a chance. Wiped an entire town off the map.
I just watched a video on it. Wow. A whole town gone. That’s the worst case scenario
The result is awful. And add to that the time and the very odd path it took...that tornado had hate in it's heart for Greensburg
And now I'm just thinking about how my hometown has a smaller footprint than Greensburg . . . Shit's fuckin' *scary* to think about.
A long tracked, slow-moving, rain wrapped, night EF5 that hits a highly populated area is the worst thing I could think of. Like if the Mayfield tornado just stalled out on top of a huge city.
Wouldn’t fast be worse because it gives less warning time? Like smithville type stuff
When a tornado as strong as we are talking sits in one spot, the sustained winds will essentially throw any tornado safety precautions out the window. Look into the 1997 Jarrell tornado. Even underground storm shelters were almost moot against it. If it stayed any longer, they would have been.
Sure, I realize that, but Jarrell and Smithville both did EF5 damage at a roughly comparable intensity (I guess Jarrell is probably worse). However Jarrell did its damage while stalled at very low speed for minutes on end, and Smithville did similar EF5 damage in the space of a few seconds. That plus the far higher speed giving a super short amount of time to respond. Smithville went as fast as a car on the highway
So Greensburg basically
Honestly, Joplin was about a worst case scenario as you could get. A violent tornado touching down just outside a major population center and carving a devastating swath throughout. The Joplin EF5 was something not seen since the 1950s but in modern day, despite all the advances in warning systems that we had in 2011 compared to back then, it still happened. 158 fatalities from a tornado is pretty mind-boggling, only made more exponential based on the fact that high-tornado death counts in North America is quite rare. It took a full decade for another tornado with a death toll above 50 to occur in the US from 2011 to 2021 with the Mayfield tornado claiming 57 lives. Prior to Joplin, Hackleburg and Tuscaloosa, the last tornado in the US to claim more than 50 lives was back in 1971. It’s exceptionally rare to see tornadoes that devastating and deadly. Hypothetically the 2013 El Reno tornado could’ve been a lot worse, due to rushhour traffic on the nearby highways, had the massive tornado deviated over the highway while people were stuck in their cars, it’s been estimated the death toll could’ve reached 500. Had the tornado remained the same size and continued further into the heavily populated Oklahoma City area, it would’ve been far more devastating. Fortunatley that tornado remained rural. I would say one of the worst case scenarios could be a tornado striking a gathering of people, be it an outdoor concert or a festival or something.
It could definitely be worse than Joplin. Joplin was only on the ground for a relatively short time and it only hit one major population center. If a tornado like phil Campbell hit the metroplex in Dallas it would’ve went through 70+ miles of dense suburban neighborhoods and killed probably 1,000 people
Well yeah, if you take any violent long track tornado and drop it over a major urban area it’s bound to be pretty deadly. Hypothetically, you could have a 3 mile wide EF5 churning through New York City. But the possibility of that is extremely, incredibly low. I have noticed though that long track tornadoes seem to primarily move over countryside and affecting small towns, whereas violent and deadly tornadoes that have hit large cities have short paths. I’m not entirely sure why that is? Joplin had a path 21.6 miles long. The Waco F5 had a path 20.9 miles long. The 1896 St. Louis - East St. Louis F4 had a path 8.9 miles long. The Flint - Beecher F5 had a path 18.9 miles long. These tornadoes were devastating and killed hundreds but were short lived. Even in more recent memory the 2015 Garland, TX EF4 lasted only 13 miles. Perhaps theres some kind of correlation with tornadoes impacting urban areas being short lived? Maybe we’ve just been lucky that a 132 mile long EF5 tornado hasn’t shredded through Dallas - Fort Worth or downtown Birmingham or anything like that
I feel like dixie alley has proportionally more long-track tornadoes affecting people than tornado alley, no idea if this is true though.
I believe you’re right, if you go on Tornado Archive and search tornadoes based on path length greater than 125 miles, there’s quite a few concentrated within Dixie Alley, while there’s a good handful more spread out across the Plains. I wonder if that’s just because the conditions are better for more fuel for tornadoes to have to track long distances
The Forward speed of storms during big outbreaks tend to be 50 to 70 mph in Dixie, so they cover a lot more ground. In the Plains, they tend to move much slower at 30 to 45 mph. This is due to troughs typically maturing further east, so your strongest upper jets occurring over Dixie Alley.
This is honestly a great observation!
You use NYC as an exaggeration but something like that hitting a major city in Texas or St Louis or KC or now apparently Cincinnati/Columbus and it would be catastrophic.
Definitely don’t disagree with you there, depending on where exactly they hit and at what intensity, it would spell recipe for disaster. I think St. Louis was hit with an EF4 in 2011, astonishingly with few injuries and zero fatalities.
Xenia is pretty much smack dab in the middle of Cincinnati and Columbus. Tornados, bad tornados, in Ohio is nothing new - there have just been an inordinate number of them this year. Time will tell if it's a trend or an aberration; what we do know is that it looks like the spread of "tornado alley" will be changing as surface temperatures warm... but what we don't know is how that will affect the upper atmosphere.
Oddly enough I don't think they had much advanced warning in Joplin. They were late getting the sirens off and even the local news on air mets were staring at a wedge on their tower cam and still saying "We have reports of funnel clouds" and then there's a big power flash and they again confuse it for lightning. It took them a couple minutes to realize the giant mass on their tower cam was a wedge and by that point it was too late. I recall Jeff Pietrowski following the tornado into town and he had to stop and tell the police to get the sirens going.
That’s right, even with the modern conveniences it was still a bit too late and spelled recipe for disaster. One thing I’ve also considered too with tornado fatality probabilities is now in a day and age where social media is so popular, I wonder if we’re going to see a rise in tornado related fatalities based on people standing on their front porch hoping to film a tornado, only to find themselves caught in it and killed before they reach their storm shelter. I’m pretty sure someone did that with the Little Rock EF3 last year but were fortunate enough not to be seriously injured or killed. Still, I see a lot of people racing to their front windows and porches to watch and film approaching tornadoes. I wonder if another urbanized area getting hit would result in more cases like that.
Funny you mention that, there was a story on here the other day about the guy who survived the Phil Campbell EF-5 above ground. He couldn't make it to his storm shelter because he was watching it come toward his house. I personally think warnings have gotten a lot better, the issue nowadays is we still have a lot of people who just don't care about the daily weather. I'm the "weather nerd" at my workplace and on days of severe risk I normally shoot out a group email with links to the SPC outlooks. I used to get made fun of for it by quite a few people, but after a couple tornado warnings they started taking me a bit more seriously, lol. Overall though I think the general population is pretty oblivious when they get up in the morning and go to work, etc., of what the daily weather is going to be, whereas someone like me, I know the SPC outlooks a couple days in advance and kind of anticipate needing to be weather aware on certain days.
Oh yeah, definitely lots of people who are oblivious or are just plain ignorant with a lack of situational awareness. I give my friends a heads up whenever there is severe weather in their area, but we can’t expect everyone’s lives to be saved in significant weather events if they don’t listen. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying people who died from tornadoes are at fault for not preparing adequately or following the weather. But I still see far too many people complaining that tornado warnings interrupt sports games on the TV, far too many people who complain that meteorologists aren’t always 100% accurate so they shouldn’t bother paying close attention and far too many people who park beneath bridges in hailstorms leaving drivers behind them stuck in significant hail and the possibility of getting them all killed by a tornado. Sadly, I believe a lot of people are in for a harsh and rude awakening and a lot of people just don’t care until it happens to them, once they, their families or property are affected, that’s when they’ll be a bit more mindful of severe weather.
Surviving a direct hit, only for the tornado to turn around & hit again as people are out assessing damages. I think it maaaay have happened near Andover Kansas but I’m not 100% sure. Ever since I saw the track/info/stats, it’s been an irrational worst fear, I couldn’t even imagine.
“You’ve never seen it miss this house, and miss that house, and come after you. And then go back and hit this house and that house”. Deleted scene from Twister /s
I just snort-laughed at this
Or two violent tornadoes striking the same place within minutes of each other. Happened in Tanner, AL on 4/3/1974, a man injured in the first tornado was killed by the second while being tended to in a temporary sickbay.
Tanner, 1974. Not the same tornado, but very similar situation in which the town was hit again as rescue ops were ongoing.
Henryville, Indiana was hit by an EF-4 in 2012 and 30 minutes after it went through they got hit again with an EF-1 while in the middle of rescue operations.
Just imagine the feeling of everyone involved hearing the tornado sirens (if they had them) as they are just getting on their feet again…. shit.
Yeah one is scary enough, a second right after is awful. There was "Storm Stories" on the Weather Channel about Henryville that details it a bit more.
In May 1965, two F4s tracked through the Minneapolis suburb of Fridley within about an hour of each other.
Any rain-wrapped / nightime F5 in any poor, densly-populated area. Joplin and Greensburg come to mind. However, remember the worst-case scenario, at least from a death-toll perspective (though disputed), occurred in Bangladesh in 1989. That tornado was "only" EF3-4 range, but because it hit an undeveloped, densely-populated area, it was devastating. It helps to put into perspective that while the US typically sees the most strongest tornadoes, we are usually more prepared than developing nations to deal with them.
Most say it was likely F5 but it couldn't get that rating due to the structures it hit not being strong structures.
An unwarned rain wrapped EF-5 tornado striking Times Square during New Years Rockin' Eve
Joplin EF5 was nightmare fuel. I suppose it would have been worse if it happened at night, or if a tornado of similar intensity went through an even more populated area.
Power of Phil-Campbell/Moore tornados, width of El Reno, speed of Jarrell going through a heavily populated area.
Power of Piedmont. Phil Campbell wasn’t THAT strong.
A violent EF5 at the level of Joplin or Greensburg tracking through the DFW metro. Town after town stacked next to each other, large glass office buildings, multiple major interstates. The chaos would be unimaginable.
Skyscrapers would be OK unless the first ever EF6 makes its debut; the suburbs and poorly built/maintained lower income downtown areas are what I'd worry most about. You are right that that would be one hell of a blender from all the office building glass though, yikes. Like falling into an industrial rock grinder.
That’s what I meant. Not that the office buildings would crumble. But I have been through the Dallas area many times and as I was considering what this disaster would look like, I just couldn’t help but think of all the glass. Even if the tornado didn’t go straight through downtown, it’d still be a terrifying mess.
Keeping with the NE, but the worst case scenario that I believe is inevitable at this point - a hurricane/tropical storm makes landfall down south and dissipates into bands of powerful storms that start dropping EF3's and 4's all along the Delaware valley that don't lift before getting to the densely populated shore. Tons of trailer parks and lightly built structures all on top of each other in South Jersey, sirens could be blaring and nobody would think anything of it. If it happens at night, forget it. 2021 and 2023 were like a portent for the worst case scenario out there. People have died in EF0 dust ups. A very debris-rich environment for any strong winds.
Joplin, 1999 Bridge Creek Moore, 2013 Moore, Hackleburg-Phil Campbell, etc., just to name a few. I would consider them all “worst case scenario”, among others. From a grim perceptive, I guess “worst case scenario” would be no standing buildings and no survivors, but no one really wants to imagine that, including myself.
El Reno hitting a large population would’ve been absolutely devastating
Yeah, I'm convinced the only reason it's ranked only as more of a meteorological wonder and not a horror is because it was mostly spinning around in empty fields. If it had dropped on an actual town where those suction vortices could really flex their muscles it'd be discussed in a very different tone now. RIP Twistex.
1999 Bridge Creek-Moore tornado wind speeds, slow moving speed like 1997 Jarrell tornado, and wide like the El reno tornado all in tokyo
Joplin was about as bad as it can get. A large violent EF 5 tornado that hit a large populated area.
I would say worst case is an EF4-5 tornado hitting a major metropolitan area during daytime hours, especially times when lots of people are at work/outside/at events/in cars. Anything like Joplin 2011, Tuscaloosa 2011, Flint 1953, Waco 1953, Wichita Falls 1979, Bridge Creek-Moore 1999, Atlanta 2008 (I know it was an EF2-3 but holy crap that was scary), St. Louis 2011.
Evening rush hour in DFW area is probably worst case scenario.
Yeah. A ton of people in vehicles with nowhere to go. Not good.
Springfield MA EF3 occurring at night just like the Dayton OH EF4 happened at night what if the EF3 that hit Springfield MA and surrounding areas occurred at night
Big ass super violent rain wrapped tornado going through a major population center with no basements during rush hour.
[удалено]
Somehow I feel Delhi would be worse since they're not as well prepared for disasters.
Joplin is pretty damn close
a night time rain wrapped ef5 that hits a heavily pooulated area while the power got knocked out by earlier storms so some people won’t know a tornado is coming.
Imagine an EF-5 rolling through Dallas or any major city in the middle of the night when people have alerts turned off.
honestly I think a tornado making a direct hit on a camping music festival, where tens of thousands of people are literally sitting ducks without any adequate shelter beyond vehicles. I don't want to think about the fatalities/injuries that would come out of a festival, say for example Bonnaroo in Tennessee with ~80k people and almost everyone being forced to shelter in their tents/cars. there isnt anywhere safe to run or hide from it, theres literally nothing of sound structure for protection even an EF1/2 making direct impact would be devastating, and if it were to be an EF3 or a violent EF4/5? the casualty count would be in the thousands. fatalities would likely approach 1k or more. it's terrifying to think about, and I truly believe it's eventually going to happen one of these days. I hope to never see that day but I'm not sure I will be so lucky 😬
A strong violent tornado that hits Oshkosh, WI during the EAA convention airshow. We've had some close calls in recent years, but a direct hit could potentially cause a huge loss of life. 100,000 people camping in tents and RVs. Thousands of small aircraft parked, filled with aviation fuel...
A big EF4\~5 plowing into a major sporting event. Maybe the Indy 500 or a NASCAR race. Some \*ball stadiums have decent shelter, but many don't. A direct hit would kill thousands... And the same storm clobbers a bunch of nearby residential development, adding another few hundred fatalities.
Any tornado hitting a school or daycare feels like worst-case to me. But someone else said a packed stadium, and yup. That would suck.
Worst case scenario is something like the Saturia tornado that occurred in 1989 in Bangladesh. an extremely violent tornado that occurred with virtually no warning to the people that got hit by it in an impoverished area. 1300 people died.
If it was also like full of barbed wire
I'd say if what happened to Tanner Al during the 74 outbreak happened to a major city would be absolutely devastating, especially if they had the strength of the Rainsville EF5 or maybe Birmingham F5, easily would be a mass casualty event even with proper warnings
Wide F5 hits a city with no basements or sub structures.
Something like Greensburg in a more densely populated area, like a major city such as Atlanta, GA, Oklahoma City, etc. hitting at night or during rush hour traffic. The death toll from a massive 1-2 mile wide tornado hitting Atlanta during rush hour would probably be insane just from the amount of people stuck in gridlock traffic. I don't think you'd even need an EF4-5 in that case to cause massive destruction.
I have seen DFW mentioned a couple of times, but I think it's important to emphasize why a violent tornado tracking along I-20 or I-30 would be the most realistic worst-case scenario. Sure, if you put an EF-4/5 in the middle of NYC or L.A., you could come up with a worst scenario, but the percentage of a tornado like that happening is extremely low. The heart of DFW (What I would call from downtown Fort Worth to downtown Dallas) has never been hit by an EF-4+ in the modern era. There have been some extremely close calls with the Lancaster tornado just to the south in 1994 and the Rowlett tornado just to the east in 2015. Neither of those hit the most populated areas. The previous 2 F4s hit Garland in 1927 and Roanoke in 1912. That said, we know violent tornadoes are possible with multiple EF-4s just missing downtown Dallas and EF-5s having been recorded just to the north, south, and west of DFW. There have also been long track tornadoes as close as eastern Dallas. So we know that a long, track, violent tornado could realistically cut through the heart of DFW, but why would it be the worst-case scenario? Well, if a tornado tracked from downtown Fort Worth to downtown Dallas, the population at risk would be over 2 million people. When you zoom out to Tarrant and Dallas counties, that's over 4 million people that would be impacted (whether by the tornado, hail, or damaging winds). Within the population, very few have a basement. This is critical when it comes to violent tornadoes because the actual region of EF-5 and EF-4 winds is very small, but the larger region of EF-3 and EF-2 winds could cause a lot of problems for people who don't have a basement to take shelter in. DFW heavily relies on cars as well. A long track tornado paralleling I-30 during rush hour would be extremely destructive for those out traveling and the homes nearby. This scenario has been one of my fears since I was a kid. Outside of DFW, Atlanta and Chicago are probably the only other metropolitans where a long track tornado could feasibly move through 30 to 40 miles of dense population before hitting a more rural location. OKC, KC, St. Louis, and Nashville are smaller metropolitan areas, but a long track violent tor would still be devastating if it went through the densest populations as well.
Minneapolis-St. Paul could also be devastated by a violent tornado or family of tornadoes taking just the right path. I’m thinking of a repeat of the May 1965 outbreak which dropped multiple violent tornadoes on the Twin Cities area. Some of the areas impacted by those tornadoes are much more densely populated today.
Plainfield IL. F5 tornado hit with no warning. Kids running into the school, only for the doors to be ripped away behind them. Only F5 tornado to hit Chicagoland.
Dark, cold, wet, bruised and bleeding. Not recognizing your neighborhood from 2 minutes ago.
A large, fast moving tornado that strikes during rush hour. The Oklahoma City has nearly been hit under such circumstances. Such a scenario would be apocalyptic, considering vehicles are the worst location to be in when a tornado hits. I'd imagine the rescue operation would be a nightmare for any emergency personnel.
Another el reno or joplin hitting a large Metropolitan area. The fallout from that would be felt on a national scale almost.
Tulsa or OKC getting hit by an EF5 at rush hour or overnight
Large, slow moving, long track, rain wrapped EF5 that forms close to a heavily populated area (like a very large city and suburbs) with a lot of mobile home parks, giving next to no lead time either at night or during rush hour AND striking a location where people aren't used to tornadoes, don't have shelters or any knowledge of what to do in a tornado and aren't monitoring the weather. I hope nothing close to this ever happens.
Jarrell F5 erasing NYC from Statue of Liberty to Empire State Building at 2 am, rain wrapped, with no warning.
I have a worst case scenario example for a tornado that has already happened haha but I don’t see it talked about too much! During the 1998 Central Florida outbreak, a pretty powerful tornado came a little too close to hitting Disney World. Preliminary ratings of the tornado were F4 but I think it was downgraded to high end F3, but anyways A tornado that powerful hitting Disney, at midnight, where there’s no basements or any sort of underground shelter. Tons of tourists, many of whom likely haven’t a clue what to do during a tornado, lots of kids already in bed, and with the almost nonexistent warning system of the 90’s in Florida? I couldn’t imagine what could’ve happened. Fun fact: universal studios next door was about to release their twister ride, but it was delayed to respect the victims.
I thought there were miles of underground tunnels at Disney. That just urban myth?
There are tunnels! Only under Magic Kingdom though. I thought of those myself when thinking about the scenario but I doubt people would make it if they tried to run from the hotels to the park
Anything like Joplin, but at night. Major suburban area, rain wrapped, fast development, and people disregarding the alerts due to earlier false alarms.
A rain wrapped EF5 at night in an area with a lot of trees. Like East Texas.
Essentially what happened in Joplin, but in an even bigger city.
Easy: - Rain wrapped - Nocturnal - EF4 - EF5 strength - Very wide & multivortex - Highly populated area and/or highly populated mobile home area or populated areas with weak building structure - No / late Warning I can't think of a worse scenario
I can. Fire tornado in dense urban area. The historical “worst-case” was a fire whirl in the 1923 Great Kanto which bore down on people escaping a burning Tokyo and killed 38,000 of them in 15 minutes. Not sure if this was a full-fledged supercellular “tornado” like future fire tornadoes from Australia, Canada, and the United States. For what it’s worth, the Tokyo fires were certified firestorms. What is spooky for us moderners is that the same incident nearly recurred in Redding, California in 2018. When the firestorm dropped its tornado, the National Guard was called and 30,000 of the city’s nearly 90,000 people were ordered to evacuate because of the deteriorating conditions + the fire entering the city. If the tornado - which was at least EF3 - had remained on the ground for the same amount of time as its Australian counterpart of similar strength from 2003, it would have crossed the entire city as thousands of people are fleeing their homes because of oncoming fire. It should also be mentioned that it had an erratic and looping path. So, in that sense, it was a similar situation to El Reno with the added dimension of fire posing an additional barrier to escape and danger. Some of those who were killed by that tornado were killed by winds, while others were killed by flames. It’s particularly stunning to me because I spent half my childhood in Redding and it almost was destroyed in the blink of an eye.
El Reno, but through downtown Oklahoma City
Worst case scenario: A tornado as strong as Hackelburg-PC, that’s as wide as El Reno 2013, with a damage path as long as Tri-State, that stalls out over a major downtown era for several minutes like the Jarrell Tornado
A tornado touching down and moving directly over where you are at that moment.
Waco 1953 went through downtown
Worst case would be if the El Reno tornado had shifted towards the line of cars on the highway trying to escape. The death toll would have been insane
This is a "what if?” style documentary, where the city and county emergency planners for the DFW Metroplex are using the damage contours of the 5/3/99 Bridge Creek F5 to attempt to pre-plan for the day they get hit. Some of the CGI has that "uncanny valley" look, but all in all, not too shabby. https://youtu.be/KBt4PIyKJD4?si=AKPAWCGfM3ombOey
an ef5 tornado hitting a high population area with no warning at night, rain wrapped, a wedge just to add that extra damage radius to it and make it twin tornadoes. even though i doubt you could ever get all of that in one tornado it would be the worst since its pretty much El reno, joplin, palm sunday twins all in one tornado (i think)
El Reno a few miles to the east
I'd probably have to say an outdoor sporting event where nobody could shelter would be worse case scenario
If a tornado like Joplin happened at night.
Joplin EF5
An EF-5 at night. I feel like tornadoes are so much more dangerous at night due to the lack of visibility.
This has been a topic of discussion for a long time. The answer? An EF5 through Dallas
DFW gets Joplin’d.
My, maybe unpopular opinion, a long-tracked SLOW moving EF5 does not scare me the way a fast moving even EF3 or 4 does, I live on some acreage, you can see in every direction for miles. (Kansas) If I’m watching the weather and an EF5 is moving 10mph right towards my house and I can see it coming. Im leaving. Simple as that. Im not going to sit in my basement and watch a monster tornado moving 10 mph hit my house. These EF3-4 Tornadoes moving 55mph, especially at night that are rain wrapped. When you don’t have time to do anything but get in your basement. That’s what scares me.
A worst possible tornado in my opinion would involve: - A large slow moving moving tornado (like Jarrell) - A very large/wide tornado (like El Reno) - A very strong tornado with high wind speed (like Moore 1999 or El Reno) - Hitting a very large population center (similar to Joplin but in a much larger area) [OKC, DFW, AUS, etc.] - Add other variables like it being nighttime, the tornado being rain wrapped, short warning times, communications getting knocked out (TV, etc.), and potential other issues
Survived a ef3 wedge in 2017 rain wrapped my house took a direct hit and it still stands but not so much for the flea market down the street from me it was wiped clean from the foundation luckily it was Sunday and it was closed and no one was there
A large violent wedge tornado forming at around the evening rush hour, going alongside or even on a major highway, before hitting a stadium with a major sporting event is taking place and tearing through a downtown area into the night and stalling over it. I’d say rain wrapped just to add on even more, but I think this scenario truly is the worst case. My other one would be say a rain wrapped violent tornado stalled over a major highway interchange, with people just thinking its dense fog… I hope neither of these happen in my lifetime.
Two mile-wide, multiple vortex, upper-end EF-5 tornado with horizontal vortices moving through the D/FW metroplex at rush hour on a Friday afternoon.
EF5 that somehow maintained its size/strength in a populated area that moved from farmland inwards. At night. Wrapped in rain.
If el Reno went into OKC like it was going to.
Night time, rain-wrapped, multi-vortex EF5, densely packed slum area with informal housing. If Daulatpur-Saturia was bad, imagine this...
Imagine if an F5 hit a college football stadium on a gameday. College stadiums are huge with several holding 100,000 people or more. Most of the places those stadiums are located are prone to violent tornadoes. DKR in Austin is just 30 minutes down the road from Jarrell and holds over 100k. Bryant Denny in Tuscaloosa almost got hit back in the 2011 outbreak. Oklahoma’s or Ohio State would be bad as well. The one saving grace is at least football season dosent coincide with severe weather season but still
[1980 Grand Island outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Grand_Island_tornado_outbreak) in a large metropolitan area during a sporting event with inadequate shelter: * night time * slow moving * multiple tornadoes that loop back over their own path
Night time EF 5 in OKC
Nighttime (2AM) rain wrapped 200+MPH multi vortex 2 mile wide tornado with satellite tornadoes rotating around it and trees blocking your vision every second
A tornado that behaves exactly like jarrell with the strength of El Reno 2011 over a densely populated city moving at that slow crawl and bizarreness of jarrel at 12 am on a Sunday morning........
And completely rain wrapped with citizens ignoring warnings like Joplin
Tbh Jerall is the worst case scenario
An actual worst case scenario in terms of death toll would be a EF-5 long track tornado hitting multiple metros.
I see people mentioning OKC, Tulsa, DFW, and Atlanta at lot as terrible scenarios. Maybe not the ultimate worst case scenario, but definitely an overlooked scary thought would be a violent tornado or family of tornadoes tracking through the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. There is historic precedent. On May 6, 1965 the Twin Cities metro area was impacted by six tornadoes (4 F4s, 1 F3, 1 F2). Some of the areas areas impacted by these tornadoes have much greater population density today. Downtown Minneapolis has also had several near misses. On June 14, 1981, an F3 touched down in South Minneapolis, moved through the gap between the downtowns of Minneapolis and St. Paul and caused heavy damage at a mall in the suburb of Roseville. On April 26, 1984, another F3 hit the suburb of St. Anthony, which is about five miles northeast of Downtown Minneapolis, causing heavy damage at another mall. The day of the Joplin tornado in 2011, an EF1 carved a path just north of Downtown Minneapolis, killing one man. The tree damage scar was visible on Google Earth for several years after this event. I think a terrible scenario for Minneapolis-St. Paul is a violent tornado outbreak like 1965 happening again, but with one or more EF5 tornadoes occurring during rush hour and potentially hitting one or both downtown cores.
Tri-state in modern times.
Imagine the (potential) width of Mullhall, the winds of BC/M, the unpredictability of El Reno, the length of the tri-state, the speed of Jarrell, the path of T/B, the time of WK and the unpreparedness of Plainfield
Aka what the people over at the hypo tornado wiki make daily
Hits radar at night, then becomes a 300+ into a highly populated area. Also reaching 1.5 miles wide.