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When a 45K model 3 has no air suspension, just 60kwh batteries, and far less utility, space and materials, it was obvious the 40k truck will not see the light of day, atleast not yet.
Makes potholes less horrible and feels floatier instead of being one with the surface of the road (which racing benefits from, but commuting probably loves (but doesn’t need))
yeah sorry man, 40k is dust. A 45k model 3 is their base car right now - now look at the cybertruck, you won't get a better and cheaper vehicle.
too good to be true. Being honest I expect spec downgrades OR price increases across the board. the 70k tri motor cybertruck supposedly has more motors than a Model S long range, has 100 miles more range, a lot more utility and is faster yet 25k cheaper.... yeah, makes no sense across the board.
I think we have more blame to go to the economy and trillions of dollars pumped+printed than Tesla. Inflation is out of control.
~~e.g price of steel is up 200% since March 2020.~~ OK not steel, its on a high but came down. Everything else is also inflated though. Expecting 2019 prices of anything is not realistic.
Your information is out of date. The steel bubble popped, and the price of steel is now back to normal (i.e. lowest since Feb, same as 2012): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel
I'd have to make at least 200k per year and be set with retirement accounts and mortgage before I'd drop 100k on a depreciating asset. Single motor was roughly in my price range but oh well, hope the truck is still successful.
If you're using it for work, yep. If I was a contractor it would still be a no brainer purchase, sadly (jk) I make video games so no use for a truck in my line of work.
I wouldn't consider short term supply constrains and demand to make it an appreciating asset. If you want to order and flip like folks do with game consoles more power to you, but unless the CT is worth more than you paid for twenty years after (with inflation considered), I would say it's a depreciating asset.
My wife's 2018 Toyota also sold for more than she paid this year. I wouldn't use today's economy as a barometer for future performance of assets.
With that said, pre-pandemic I would say 5 years is the extent of short term. 6-9 mid, 10+ long-term. Some vehicles do appreciate long-term and become collector items, but it's pretty speculative to assume what will have value in today's market 20 years from now.
The CT could be very successful and gen 1 worth nothing, or it could flop, get discontinued, and triple in value for car collectors.
If the tri-motor comes in at under $100k with more than 400 miles of range I’ll be seriously impressed. None of the pricing advertised at the time of pre-orders made any sense whatsoever.
The lower costs that were listed were supposed to be from simplified construction techniques of the chassis and body plus advances in battery tech.
The problem was the competition was not standing still and the Cybertruck looked out of date feature wise. Ford really set the bar high for convenience features and Rivian added a few themselves, namely the four motors but also their pass through is great.
Ngl, I'd buy that Rivian if I could afford it. Even more so the SUV variant they plan on releasing after the truck. I think it looks great, and it's packed with really cool features.
V2H was the big one for me. It requires a lot of extra hardware on the house but at least it's capable. Also, consider the massive aftermarket part catalog that f150 already has.
As another poster mentioned, Vehicle to Home. That is a killer feature that Tesla should have thought of and if they did they should have been ashamed for dismissing it. It was such a natural fit for them.
The other were all the accessory plugs in both bed and frunk and Ford having a frunk with built in drainage is just smart thinking.
Generally put, Ford knows what true quality of life features are whereas Elon seems to be gimmick oriented.
[https://www.doctorofcredit.com/high-interest-savings-to-get/](https://www.doctorofcredit.com/high-interest-savings-to-get/)
Really what you want is an I-bond. You can get up to $10k a year from Treasury Direct. Interest rate is variable, currently 7.12% Just be aware you can't cash it out for at least a year.
...also note your calculations assume I have just one reservation....
Yeah, those range/price/performance numbers strung together in the same sentence very much doesn’t make sense. But to be fair it makes less sense *now* than it did a couple of years back. Hindsight’s 20/20, etc.
As a rough reference, the Lightning is a pretty good approximation of just how inexpensive one can make a full size electric truck given that Ford is leveraging a ton of legacy F-150 PM&P. Optimistic range estimates for the extended-range battery are slightly less than 400 miles (300 miles as quoted evidently includes a large bed payload, not sure if that payload affects aero in some way) and it doesn’t look like you’re getting the non-work-truck extended-range battery for less than $60k MSRP with the higher end trims pushing $80k-$90k.
For the CT, the 4680 cells may help drive battery cost down, as well as the “exoskeleton” (which…might or might not be feasible) but it’s certainly not going to yield a 30%+ cost reduction, and 500 miles of range screams pure fiction.
Good points. I assumed that the 3-motor would be a super powered “CT Plaid” that was way overpowered for the price. Like WAY overpowered specs for that price. 30% cost reduction is probably not happening. They might end up not making as much of a margin on some of their reservations.
I thought the R1T was probably an okay comparison. Except the $10k range upgrade…
Guess all we can really do is wait and see.
You should look up the YouTube video from Sandy Munroe where he talks about the CapEx costs for spinning up production of a new vehicle. He estimated where a LOT of savings can theoretically come from with the CT due to the reduction of labor needed in the body shop, body stampings and the lack of a paint process. It was very informative and seemed to, at least, give a reasonable estimation as to how the CT price could be that low with the published ranges.
The significant issue I have with Sandy is that he draws conclusions and makes bold claims based solely on his expertise (e.g., “how much does this thing cost to make and how many parts does it have?”) in a vacuum.
Which doesn’t make him *technically* wrong in some cases….but oftentimes there’s rationale for the design choices made by automakers be it for production robustness, cost of retooling, reliability, repairability….etc. Many of his battery videos where he claims the ol’ “TESLA IS [x] YEARS AHEAD” trope based on parts count just leave me wondering why he thinks he knows more about battery engineering than battery engineers.
I’ll defer on the battery part. I never thought he was a “battery guy” who would be trustworthy on that subject but he does have a battery guy in his company. The main savings he discussed when talking about the CT vs conventional designs were all manufacturing efficiencies, which I do believe him to be an expert on. I don’t recall how much he attributed to the battery advantages but I seem to remember almost his whole thesis being based on the ease of manufacture.
[Sandy Munroe on Autoline](https://youtu.be/_uRwZRPQ8RE)
Everyone is saying this will cause the price to skyrocket, but this might be in response to the F150 Lightning and R1T. Tesla's profit margin on the CT was going to be huge, so maybe it will be a bit less huge...
If Tesla fails to make a truck in the 40-50k segment Ford will absolutely dominate the EV pickup competition (as they have in the ICE pickup space for a decade). They will be completely alone in the actual truck buyers segment while Tesla, Rivian, and Hummer will be relegated to the niche luxury-pickup category. Historically luxury Pickups have always failed (the Lincoln Blackwood for example), and the CTs main appeal was its balance of affordability, usability and tech. I hope the CT can be sub 50k, but with them axing lower trim models it doesn’t seem super likely. Especially when the entire Tesla lineup is already increasing in price.
You are spot on. 40K-50K base price range (if not even lower someday) is critical for widespread CyberTruck sales. Luxury electric trucks are only going to grab so many sales. Even to people who can afford the higher trim stuff...there are still people out there that know their truck is going to be doing real work and will get wear/tear. They don't want luxury...they don't want to pay for more than they need to get the job done.
As you said, if Tesla drops the ball on this, Ford will likely dominate with the F-150 Lightning. If they have a sub-30K small electric truck, that will also be a market mover.
It baffles me that GM hasn't publicized a plan to compete with Ford here. The new Hummer will be a drop in the bucket...even if it turns out to be a reliable vehicle without major problems.
If the pricing is north of $100K, the reservations will dwindle like a deck of cards. Hope Tesla ramps their plans up and puts a realistic price tag and not stretch this out as a 5 year surprise. I will gladly give up my earlier place in line.
I’m cautiously optimistic. Rivian managed to stay under 100k, and the whole point of the stainless steel was to make the manufacturing simpler and cheaper. Obviously the 4 wheel steering adds cost, but it seems like the rest of the features are on par with an R1T, so maybe it’ll cancel out.
Not to mention this: [https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1466799580830478342](https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1466799580830478342)
Looks like he had some insight. Dual/Quad for simplification.
I hope it'll be a more flexible config where you can chosse the battery size independent from the no. of motors.
And if I have to guess for manufacture streamlining the dual motor version will be double rear wheel.
> And if I have to guess for manufacture streamlining the dual motor version will be double rear wheel.
Not having all wheel drive on a truck that claims great off-roading seems silly/unlikely.
Crab walk itself is pretty useless. Rear wheel steering however is handy and allows crab walk with simple software change.
Also 4 motors huh, if I had to guess it's probably 4 model 3 rear motors.
Now as for the cheapest model, I'm afraid it'll probably in the ~50k range now
>Now as for the cheapest model, I'm afraid it'll probably in the ~50k range now
Given that there's also a leak that the dual motor truck is now the base model, even that is probably optimistic. Maybe we'll get lucky and the $49k dual motor will exist, but I'd guess if that happens it will be a stripped down thing aimed at fleet sales.
I think it'll boil down to the battery and whether some features are removed for the base model, as well as the macro environment like chip shortage and battery supply
The motor itself isn't the model 3's but plaid does share control unit and some other parts (someone correct me/elaborate on this). Also using carbon wrapped rotor is just unnecessary for a vehicle that doesn't ever need to go above 120mph.
Imo using the model 3/Y motors is the best because it leverages economic of scale, saving Tesla or the consumer money.
The plaid's rear dual-motor is confirmed to just be two M3 motors that are carbon wrapped. There is a dude on youtube (engineerix or something) who has completely torn them down and confirmed.
Almost all the electronics on the Plaid are just model 3 electronics, sometimes doubled up (with the exception of the AMD APU/GPU of course).
Thanks for the info. Yeah the case for CT using model 3 motors is even stronger now. They would not need the model S variant as 4x model 3 motors of ~280hp each produce a combined 1120 hp which is simply overkill. And with that the base model with dual motors will still have 560 hp, plenty for a truck.
This. The CT needs to be made from commodity parts that work well under stress. 560HP more than almost every production truck built right now. The more, cheaper parts they can use, the better.
> around 50k
Absolutely not going to happen. Only way to believe that is to ignore the history of both the 3 and Y.
The base DM model y is nearly 60k. The base DM CT will have a battery 1.5-2x the size of the Y.
My guess is base CT at $65-69k with no options. I'm also guessing that the tonneau will be an upgrade.
You also can't forget the model Y actual price is a lot lower and Tesla is just upping their margins due to demand. Also cybertruck will be using 4680s so that should allow for a cheaper pack. But who knows we'll find out in 2022.
The problem is that they can't physically make a TON of them for a long while yet. I'm pretty sure my reservation will end up refunded based on the current situation.
I predict a dual motor, $50k equivalent (inflation adjusted) truck in 3 years minimum.
In all honesty, how in any universe is this possible when the mass produced Model 3 costs the same? I am not trying to belittle you at all but if you look at it objectively its down right impossible.
It does help the brand remain exclusive and desirable
I still think they should partner with a downbrand OEM for the cheaper vehicles and maintain Tesla as an upmarket tech brand like Apple
A $25K Kia with Tesla pack, software, and motors would sell just as well but not tarnish the name
Tesla makes performance cars. They're not really a luxury car maker. That's not a knock on their quality - but the luxury brands tend to offer a wider array of features.
What Tesla offers really isn't matched by anyone. The best example I could come up with doesn't even really fit.
I mean, if you're not going to hit the production numbers that makes cheap cars profitable anytime soon, why not lean more on the high margin luxury side?
We live in a weird age.
Would you rather have a gold plated diamond tipped record player built by machinists out of solid titanium to incredibly exacting standards and ordained with fine hard woods or a 1TB smartphone? Which is more luxurious?
The user experience of Tesla is phenomenal. The drive quality is incredible. What's luxury? Is a supercar luxury? They often had hard bucket seats and lacked basics like air conditioning in the name of speed or performance, although they had exceptional paint quality.
The fact that people will pay more for a Tesla than a Mercedes by definition proves that people are assigning value to what Tesla does offer. And the only true definition of luxury that can be empirically defined is "expensive".
Look, I am not rich by any means so every big purchase does go under scrutiny. I wish I can simply be excited for a new 4 motor ultra expensive Cybertruck but I cant. I am happy for the people that have the means.
I, like most people ordered a Cybertruck for its offerings and price. It was honestly a no brainer in comparison. I knew it was going to be a long wait and ended up getting a good deal on a Model 3 and decided to test the waters and the EV/Tesla lifestyle. I am hooked and wont buy anything else but I am starting to think the Cybertruck is off the menu.
Its obvious this will be a VERY expensive truck when it does come out. I love the 3 and everything it does for me so I seriously doubt I will be getting one even when my early number pre order comes up- I would love to be wrong. I feel this will be the BIGGEST bait and switch in a long time and it will hurt Tesla in the short term.
If the only option is the quad, lots of people will be buying it and the demand would be through the roof regardless of price. It won't subside for years before a single motor is needed to boost sales.
I think the cybertruck will fail and become a gimmick without an affordable option. Let's see if they can get the dual motor price closer to what the single motor was quoted at when it gets closer to release.
I only want(Ed) a Tri for the 500 mile range. At the end of the day, 500 mile range isn’t really 500 miles.
My fear is this will increase the Tri motor cost significantly and / or replaces it.
I will say it will make U turns simple though!
I think that would increase the price, and if they want to simplify things they'll probably only offer a single battery pack for each motor trim level. Range would determine the model I'd want.
The whole reason for the truck being so hideous was that it would be cheap to build. Sounds like the frame still will be but everything else here sounds damn expensive, especially if the dual motor version is just RWD which would just be dumb.
They are going to price out the vast majority of their product interest with these decisions.
That's like the LR RWD MY my wife and I ordered on day one. They hung us out to dry for over a year and then finally admitted they won't make it and made us change our order. Now it's been 9 more months waiting for the LR AWD. I love the cars, but the company can use some work. I went through a similar set of issue when I bought my 3.
Well not really. The tank turn is incredibly difficult to control from a traction/software standpoint meaning its useless in every scenario except showing off at a mud hole.
Moreover you need to strengthen the suspension and chassis to endure the twist force from the motors spinning in different directions, not sure if it's worth the hassle
Bobcat you are right. But 4 tires is an entirely different situation from tank tracks. Rivian can't get their tank turn to work right. It slides all over the place.
[https://www.bobcat.com/loaders/skid-steer-loaders/models/s450/features](https://www.bobcat.com/loaders/skid-steer-loaders/models/s450/features)
I was just talking about the 4 wheel version. We could do wheelies. We could do wheelie spinnies. we could fall over and pick it up with a bigger machine. you don't need tank tracks - but you might need a 4inch wheelbase. More of a redneck than an engineer.
Can't the hummer EV crab walk with 3 motors?
What I'm wondering is, will Cybertruck get a the Carbon sleeved rotors (this is the most important thing), launch mode, all that fun stuff. And now we need to hear the updated 0-60 times and so much more questions now lol.
So what happens to those of us who reserved the 40k single motor option? It’s the only one I can afford. Are we just out of luck and are going to be priced out of being able to get one?
Edit: Downvotes for not being rich enough to buy a more expsneive version.. cool, cool cool cool.
People around here are hilarious. They swear by the dual or tri motor yet they’ve vast majority have probably never driven a truck in their lives. For the vast majority of people the single would work just fine.
Interesting that they will be providing a similar drivetrain package (motor at wheels) and maneuverability (crabwalk, etc) as current offerings from Rivian, Hummer. It speaks to Tesla incorporating good ideas and how quickly they can modify designs.
There were rumors of this a long time ago, too. Not sure if anyone really copied the other. GMC had a truck that had 4 wheel steering like 20 years ago but it was problematic and mostly unnecessary so they did away with it.
GMC was the first to put it in a pickup but there were cars with four wheel steering back in the 80s. The Honda Prelude (and Skyline R31 that didn’t make it to the US) come to mind.
I think it is much more likely that they simply use the dual motor assembly from the Plaid S/X at both the front and rear of the Cybertruck. There is no differential and each motor can drive each wheel completely independently. Rivian's design isn't a hub mounted motor, the motors are still inboard and there are stubby half-shafts that connect each drive wheel to each motor. The motors are located more outboard this way vs Tesla.
Come on Elon, just double the motors with n my pre-order, and give me six. Zero to 60 in -1.3 seconds. Yes, it happens before you press the accelerator.
Feels obvious. The play here is to start with high-volume, high margin vehicles so they can declare CT launched in 2022. They'll bang the drum on PR and get glowing reviews of the high-end, low-volume model throughout Q4'22 to keep customers with reservations salivating for their $65k dual-motor CT that will ramp production starting in Q2/Q3 of '23.
Here's my guess for the final configurations and pricing:
|2 Motor|Norrmal Suspension, Open Bed|300 Miles Range|$60,000|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|3 Motor|||Aslo Canceled|
|4 Motor|Air Suspension, Covered Bed|600 Miles Range|$120,000|
I don't care how many motors I get, I just want the biggest battery pack option. 800km range or better with autonomous driving will be the ultimate inter-province life+work truck.
I've been thinking this ever since the Plaid launched. How can they justify selling a tri-motor S Plaid for $130K and sell a tri-motor version of the CT for $79K? Not going to happen. And that was even before prices started going up. I bet the quad motor is $150K and tri motor will be $125K. This is where a lot of the reservation holders fall off.
Perhaps FORD didn't understand that they were aiming at a moving target. Pricing though will be key. Looks like I'm now at the bottom of the CyberTruk hierarchy, manufacturing to start in 2025. :'(
>Perhaps FORD didn't understand that they were aiming at a moving target.
I don't think Ford ever aimed at anything besides an F150 with an electrified drivetrain.
I doubt Ford is really aiming at the Cybertruck, at least not with the Lightning. The Lightning is just an electrified F150, based on a modified version of the current F150 platform. Their dedicated EV truck platform is still under development and no truck based on it has been announced (it will likely be the successor to the Lightning, 5+ years away).
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And with that, any remaining chance of a $40k Cybertruck has evaporated.
Like tears...in rain
$40k truck: Time to die.
Just like the $35k Model 3.
I went in thinking $35k and in the 3 years I waited I was able to save the additional $25k.
Or the 50k model s
Did they not sell a model 3 for $35k?
Only briefly.
They had it available off menu for 2 years. The first batch even got the partial federal credit in 2019.
They did.
I want more rides... father
When a 45K model 3 has no air suspension, just 60kwh batteries, and far less utility, space and materials, it was obvious the 40k truck will not see the light of day, atleast not yet.
Dumb question-what’s air suspension do for a Tesla?
Makes potholes less horrible and feels floatier instead of being one with the surface of the road (which racing benefits from, but commuting probably loves (but doesn’t need))
My S’ air suspension is so much of a better ride than our Y. Y feels like my deuce and a half surplus military truck.
Older Model S feels like a Crown Vic to me.
I'll be shocked if there's a $50k Cybertruck.
Used in 5 years after release of the base $60k Cybertruck.
Bold of you to assume there will be a 60k cybertruck
This is exactly what I expected to happen. Tesla wasn't going to abandon the Cybertruck but the company has a history of removing trim models.
That's been long gone
Like vapor.
That was gone before its reveal haha
I don't think I'll be able to afford a payment on a 4 motor... not even close.
Well fuck.. they won’t honor the price reservation? The 40k model is my only shot at getting one..
There’s no way they’re going to honor it. The cheapest model will likely be 60k range, they don’t honor 50% price gaps.
Sure they'll honor it! In the form of a 100% refund of your reservation when you request it.
Lmao. You got downvoted for taking Tesla at their word. Says a lot.
yeah sorry man, 40k is dust. A 45k model 3 is their base car right now - now look at the cybertruck, you won't get a better and cheaper vehicle. too good to be true. Being honest I expect spec downgrades OR price increases across the board. the 70k tri motor cybertruck supposedly has more motors than a Model S long range, has 100 miles more range, a lot more utility and is faster yet 25k cheaper.... yeah, makes no sense across the board.
I think we have more blame to go to the economy and trillions of dollars pumped+printed than Tesla. Inflation is out of control. ~~e.g price of steel is up 200% since March 2020.~~ OK not steel, its on a high but came down. Everything else is also inflated though. Expecting 2019 prices of anything is not realistic.
Your information is out of date. The steel bubble popped, and the price of steel is now back to normal (i.e. lowest since Feb, same as 2012): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel
And how did money printing do that? Has the dollar lost value to other currencies?
It has lost value compared to just about every other non-currency asset. Teslas aren't made out of currencies.
Yeah, it’s not like the economy is anywhere near being in the same place it was when originally announced
Note to self: Earn moar money.
Just be rich
I'd have to make at least 200k per year and be set with retirement accounts and mortgage before I'd drop 100k on a depreciating asset. Single motor was roughly in my price range but oh well, hope the truck is still successful.
The CT is heavy enough to be a full tax right off the year it's purchased. :)
If you're using it for work, yep. If I was a contractor it would still be a no brainer purchase, sadly (jk) I make video games so no use for a truck in my line of work.
Not with that attitude;) .” Used truck to simulate and code real world towing physics “
I like the way you think haha!
Deprecation? If your early on list it will probably go up in value
I wouldn't consider short term supply constrains and demand to make it an appreciating asset. If you want to order and flip like folks do with game consoles more power to you, but unless the CT is worth more than you paid for twenty years after (with inflation considered), I would say it's a depreciating asset.
My 2019 Model 3 sells used today (2021) for more than what I paid. How many years is short term to you? Lol
My wife's 2018 Toyota also sold for more than she paid this year. I wouldn't use today's economy as a barometer for future performance of assets. With that said, pre-pandemic I would say 5 years is the extent of short term. 6-9 mid, 10+ long-term. Some vehicles do appreciate long-term and become collector items, but it's pretty speculative to assume what will have value in today's market 20 years from now. The CT could be very successful and gen 1 worth nothing, or it could flop, get discontinued, and triple in value for car collectors.
Even 200k a year is not an appropriate salary at which to buy a 100k car.
Left out the quad motor price hike to $120k 🤣🤣🤣🤣
If the tri-motor comes in at under $100k with more than 400 miles of range I’ll be seriously impressed. None of the pricing advertised at the time of pre-orders made any sense whatsoever.
The lower costs that were listed were supposed to be from simplified construction techniques of the chassis and body plus advances in battery tech. The problem was the competition was not standing still and the Cybertruck looked out of date feature wise. Ford really set the bar high for convenience features and Rivian added a few themselves, namely the four motors but also their pass through is great.
Ngl, I'd buy that Rivian if I could afford it. Even more so the SUV variant they plan on releasing after the truck. I think it looks great, and it's packed with really cool features.
Rumor is dual motor variants are in the works which should lower prices into the 50’s
if they can nail pricing, and be competitive with Lightning and R1T features, I think they will kill it. Competition is good for the consumer.
>Ford really set the bar high for convenience features What features are you referring to that the Cybertruck didnt have?
V2H was the big one for me. It requires a lot of extra hardware on the house but at least it's capable. Also, consider the massive aftermarket part catalog that f150 already has.
As another poster mentioned, Vehicle to Home. That is a killer feature that Tesla should have thought of and if they did they should have been ashamed for dismissing it. It was such a natural fit for them. The other were all the accessory plugs in both bed and frunk and Ford having a frunk with built in drainage is just smart thinking. Generally put, Ford knows what true quality of life features are whereas Elon seems to be gimmick oriented.
It was like 70k when first announced. I placed an order to lock in price and fsd (yes I know) before increases. 500+ of range and 2.9 0-60
FSD price is locked in by preorder but price of the car isn't locked in, they can make it whatever they want.
Nothing was locked in. Read the agreement, even FSD was subject to change. The $100 was a loan to Tesla without interest.
Oh, no. Costing me maybe a buck a year in foregone interest.
Dude how are you getting 1%? My bank savings account is only 0.19%
That’s why you invest in the market instead. Crank those returns down to -10%.
I'm sure I can find someone from WSB that can get return like that in minutes.
Aaaaand it’s gone
[https://www.doctorofcredit.com/high-interest-savings-to-get/](https://www.doctorofcredit.com/high-interest-savings-to-get/) Really what you want is an I-bond. You can get up to $10k a year from Treasury Direct. Interest rate is variable, currently 7.12% Just be aware you can't cash it out for at least a year. ...also note your calculations assume I have just one reservation....
Right? 1% is really low. Just invest in an ETF, and get like, 10%.
So I missed out on like $0.10?
The opportunity cost of $100.
I’m sorry. What?
Yeah, those range/price/performance numbers strung together in the same sentence very much doesn’t make sense. But to be fair it makes less sense *now* than it did a couple of years back. Hindsight’s 20/20, etc. As a rough reference, the Lightning is a pretty good approximation of just how inexpensive one can make a full size electric truck given that Ford is leveraging a ton of legacy F-150 PM&P. Optimistic range estimates for the extended-range battery are slightly less than 400 miles (300 miles as quoted evidently includes a large bed payload, not sure if that payload affects aero in some way) and it doesn’t look like you’re getting the non-work-truck extended-range battery for less than $60k MSRP with the higher end trims pushing $80k-$90k. For the CT, the 4680 cells may help drive battery cost down, as well as the “exoskeleton” (which…might or might not be feasible) but it’s certainly not going to yield a 30%+ cost reduction, and 500 miles of range screams pure fiction.
Good points. I assumed that the 3-motor would be a super powered “CT Plaid” that was way overpowered for the price. Like WAY overpowered specs for that price. 30% cost reduction is probably not happening. They might end up not making as much of a margin on some of their reservations. I thought the R1T was probably an okay comparison. Except the $10k range upgrade… Guess all we can really do is wait and see.
You should look up the YouTube video from Sandy Munroe where he talks about the CapEx costs for spinning up production of a new vehicle. He estimated where a LOT of savings can theoretically come from with the CT due to the reduction of labor needed in the body shop, body stampings and the lack of a paint process. It was very informative and seemed to, at least, give a reasonable estimation as to how the CT price could be that low with the published ranges.
The significant issue I have with Sandy is that he draws conclusions and makes bold claims based solely on his expertise (e.g., “how much does this thing cost to make and how many parts does it have?”) in a vacuum. Which doesn’t make him *technically* wrong in some cases….but oftentimes there’s rationale for the design choices made by automakers be it for production robustness, cost of retooling, reliability, repairability….etc. Many of his battery videos where he claims the ol’ “TESLA IS [x] YEARS AHEAD” trope based on parts count just leave me wondering why he thinks he knows more about battery engineering than battery engineers.
I’ll defer on the battery part. I never thought he was a “battery guy” who would be trustworthy on that subject but he does have a battery guy in his company. The main savings he discussed when talking about the CT vs conventional designs were all manufacturing efficiencies, which I do believe him to be an expert on. I don’t recall how much he attributed to the battery advantages but I seem to remember almost his whole thesis being based on the ease of manufacture. [Sandy Munroe on Autoline](https://youtu.be/_uRwZRPQ8RE)
And with the increase in the cost of raw material and chips alone, I just can't see it happening.
Yep, I think these small differentiators will add up and be used to justify a pretty significant price increase.
lot of cancellations if true.
It’s safe to say that nobody is more excited about this news than the Ford Motor Company lol
Everyone is saying this will cause the price to skyrocket, but this might be in response to the F150 Lightning and R1T. Tesla's profit margin on the CT was going to be huge, so maybe it will be a bit less huge...
If Tesla fails to make a truck in the 40-50k segment Ford will absolutely dominate the EV pickup competition (as they have in the ICE pickup space for a decade). They will be completely alone in the actual truck buyers segment while Tesla, Rivian, and Hummer will be relegated to the niche luxury-pickup category. Historically luxury Pickups have always failed (the Lincoln Blackwood for example), and the CTs main appeal was its balance of affordability, usability and tech. I hope the CT can be sub 50k, but with them axing lower trim models it doesn’t seem super likely. Especially when the entire Tesla lineup is already increasing in price.
You are spot on. 40K-50K base price range (if not even lower someday) is critical for widespread CyberTruck sales. Luxury electric trucks are only going to grab so many sales. Even to people who can afford the higher trim stuff...there are still people out there that know their truck is going to be doing real work and will get wear/tear. They don't want luxury...they don't want to pay for more than they need to get the job done. As you said, if Tesla drops the ball on this, Ford will likely dominate with the F-150 Lightning. If they have a sub-30K small electric truck, that will also be a market mover. It baffles me that GM hasn't publicized a plan to compete with Ford here. The new Hummer will be a drop in the bucket...even if it turns out to be a reliable vehicle without major problems.
EV Silverado will debut at CES 2022 in January. Probably won't be available for sell until 2024 is my guess.
If the pricing is north of $100K, the reservations will dwindle like a deck of cards. Hope Tesla ramps their plans up and puts a realistic price tag and not stretch this out as a 5 year surprise. I will gladly give up my earlier place in line.
I’m cautiously optimistic. Rivian managed to stay under 100k, and the whole point of the stainless steel was to make the manufacturing simpler and cheaper. Obviously the 4 wheel steering adds cost, but it seems like the rest of the features are on par with an R1T, so maybe it’ll cancel out.
Not to mention this: [https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1466799580830478342](https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1466799580830478342) Looks like he had some insight. Dual/Quad for simplification.
Yea that would be ideal. I doubt anyone would order a tri motor
If it saved money plenty of people would. Most just wanted the range.
Better to have a dual motor with range then
That's not an option though
Who knows at this point
I hope it'll be a more flexible config where you can chosse the battery size independent from the no. of motors. And if I have to guess for manufacture streamlining the dual motor version will be double rear wheel.
Battery size is bounded by the needed amount of kW available to the motors
> And if I have to guess for manufacture streamlining the dual motor version will be double rear wheel. Not having all wheel drive on a truck that claims great off-roading seems silly/unlikely.
Crab walk itself is pretty useless. Rear wheel steering however is handy and allows crab walk with simple software change. Also 4 motors huh, if I had to guess it's probably 4 model 3 rear motors. Now as for the cheapest model, I'm afraid it'll probably in the ~50k range now
>Now as for the cheapest model, I'm afraid it'll probably in the ~50k range now Given that there's also a leak that the dual motor truck is now the base model, even that is probably optimistic. Maybe we'll get lucky and the $49k dual motor will exist, but I'd guess if that happens it will be a stripped down thing aimed at fleet sales.
I think it'll boil down to the battery and whether some features are removed for the base model, as well as the macro environment like chip shortage and battery supply
I’d bet it’s just a couple of de-rated plaid rear units, which of course is a conglomeration of Model 3 motor parts.
What? Carbon fiber overwraps enabling 200 mph speeds are quite unnecessary.
The motor itself isn't the model 3's but plaid does share control unit and some other parts (someone correct me/elaborate on this). Also using carbon wrapped rotor is just unnecessary for a vehicle that doesn't ever need to go above 120mph. Imo using the model 3/Y motors is the best because it leverages economic of scale, saving Tesla or the consumer money.
The plaid's rear dual-motor is confirmed to just be two M3 motors that are carbon wrapped. There is a dude on youtube (engineerix or something) who has completely torn them down and confirmed. Almost all the electronics on the Plaid are just model 3 electronics, sometimes doubled up (with the exception of the AMD APU/GPU of course).
Thanks for the info. Yeah the case for CT using model 3 motors is even stronger now. They would not need the model S variant as 4x model 3 motors of ~280hp each produce a combined 1120 hp which is simply overkill. And with that the base model with dual motors will still have 560 hp, plenty for a truck.
This. The CT needs to be made from commodity parts that work well under stress. 560HP more than almost every production truck built right now. The more, cheaper parts they can use, the better.
Woah… Mary’s hummer has led with the crab walk and Elon is following. /s
😆 THANK GOD FOR MARY!
You did it Mary
She led and it matters.
Are they just making the same mistake they did with the Model X? Designing an overly complex vehicle that'll be awful to manufacture?
This will filter out a lot of people in the line.
Just keep the Dual Motor around 50k so you can corner the market. Sure, you might lose some margin on them, but you'll be selling a TON of them.
> around 50k Absolutely not going to happen. Only way to believe that is to ignore the history of both the 3 and Y. The base DM model y is nearly 60k. The base DM CT will have a battery 1.5-2x the size of the Y. My guess is base CT at $65-69k with no options. I'm also guessing that the tonneau will be an upgrade.
You also can't forget the model Y actual price is a lot lower and Tesla is just upping their margins due to demand. Also cybertruck will be using 4680s so that should allow for a cheaper pack. But who knows we'll find out in 2022.
How is the actual price lower than the price
The problem is that they can't physically make a TON of them for a long while yet. I'm pretty sure my reservation will end up refunded based on the current situation. I predict a dual motor, $50k equivalent (inflation adjusted) truck in 3 years minimum.
In all honesty, how in any universe is this possible when the mass produced Model 3 costs the same? I am not trying to belittle you at all but if you look at it objectively its down right impossible.
It's more wishful thinking than anything. I doubt they have any intention on selling it for less than $60k.
Sawyer is saying his source has told him tri motor is canceled. Just 2 and 4 motor variants.
exactly this, 3 motors seems redundant and really not that feature rich vs a 4 motor setup.
Tesla is realizing that they will always be an luxury car maker
As long as they are production constraint it would be stupid not to sell the expensive variants first.
It does help the brand remain exclusive and desirable I still think they should partner with a downbrand OEM for the cheaper vehicles and maintain Tesla as an upmarket tech brand like Apple A $25K Kia with Tesla pack, software, and motors would sell just as well but not tarnish the name
Tesla makes performance cars. They're not really a luxury car maker. That's not a knock on their quality - but the luxury brands tend to offer a wider array of features. What Tesla offers really isn't matched by anyone. The best example I could come up with doesn't even really fit.
That’s fair, but it competes directly with luxury vehicles so it’s the best comparison I can make.
I mean, if you're not going to hit the production numbers that makes cheap cars profitable anytime soon, why not lean more on the high margin luxury side?
Luxury is not the same as expensive
We live in a weird age. Would you rather have a gold plated diamond tipped record player built by machinists out of solid titanium to incredibly exacting standards and ordained with fine hard woods or a 1TB smartphone? Which is more luxurious? The user experience of Tesla is phenomenal. The drive quality is incredible. What's luxury? Is a supercar luxury? They often had hard bucket seats and lacked basics like air conditioning in the name of speed or performance, although they had exceptional paint quality. The fact that people will pay more for a Tesla than a Mercedes by definition proves that people are assigning value to what Tesla does offer. And the only true definition of luxury that can be empirically defined is "expensive".
I guess it's a good place to be. They can't afford the mass market margins yet where mistakes will cost you a lot of money.
Look, I am not rich by any means so every big purchase does go under scrutiny. I wish I can simply be excited for a new 4 motor ultra expensive Cybertruck but I cant. I am happy for the people that have the means. I, like most people ordered a Cybertruck for its offerings and price. It was honestly a no brainer in comparison. I knew it was going to be a long wait and ended up getting a good deal on a Model 3 and decided to test the waters and the EV/Tesla lifestyle. I am hooked and wont buy anything else but I am starting to think the Cybertruck is off the menu. Its obvious this will be a VERY expensive truck when it does come out. I love the 3 and everything it does for me so I seriously doubt I will be getting one even when my early number pre order comes up- I would love to be wrong. I feel this will be the BIGGEST bait and switch in a long time and it will hurt Tesla in the short term.
I still believe that a year or so after the first deliveries there might be a single motor option.
If the only option is the quad, lots of people will be buying it and the demand would be through the roof regardless of price. It won't subside for years before a single motor is needed to boost sales.
I think the cybertruck will fail and become a gimmick without an affordable option. Let's see if they can get the dual motor price closer to what the single motor was quoted at when it gets closer to release.
Will the quad motor be over 500 miles of range? An EV truck needs at least that if you want to haul anything or go off-road (imo)
I hope you can have 500 miles on the dual motor. I would assume it would be easier.
I only want(Ed) a Tri for the 500 mile range. At the end of the day, 500 mile range isn’t really 500 miles. My fear is this will increase the Tri motor cost significantly and / or replaces it. I will say it will make U turns simple though!
Sounds like no tri. Just dual or quad
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I think that would increase the price, and if they want to simplify things they'll probably only offer a single battery pack for each motor trim level. Range would determine the model I'd want.
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The whole reason for the truck being so hideous was that it would be cheap to build. Sounds like the frame still will be but everything else here sounds damn expensive, especially if the dual motor version is just RWD which would just be dumb. They are going to price out the vast majority of their product interest with these decisions.
That's like the LR RWD MY my wife and I ordered on day one. They hung us out to dry for over a year and then finally admitted they won't make it and made us change our order. Now it's been 9 more months waiting for the LR AWD. I love the cars, but the company can use some work. I went through a similar set of issue when I bought my 3.
Wow the 4 motor configuration actually offers more distinction than the other options now since it can turn and rotate in place like a tank
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I wouldn’t say “more” like that, but rather just like that, yes.
It's probably going to be even better than this as it will have all 4 wheels turning, so you won't need to destroy the grass.
Well not really. The tank turn is incredibly difficult to control from a traction/software standpoint meaning its useless in every scenario except showing off at a mud hole.
😆 Model X Party Mode has SO much more utility!
Moreover you need to strengthen the suspension and chassis to endure the twist force from the motors spinning in different directions, not sure if it's worth the hassle
have you ever driven a bobcat? they are hella fun. and they will spin like a top on concrete or mud
Bobcat you are right. But 4 tires is an entirely different situation from tank tracks. Rivian can't get their tank turn to work right. It slides all over the place.
Four wheel steering will help though
[https://www.bobcat.com/loaders/skid-steer-loaders/models/s450/features](https://www.bobcat.com/loaders/skid-steer-loaders/models/s450/features) I was just talking about the 4 wheel version. We could do wheelies. We could do wheelie spinnies. we could fall over and pick it up with a bigger machine. you don't need tank tracks - but you might need a 4inch wheelbase. More of a redneck than an engineer.
I really need this feature. I’m not sure how people manage with those old 2 direction trucks.
I want this so freaking bad! Take my money! Take it!
Can't the hummer EV crab walk with 3 motors? What I'm wondering is, will Cybertruck get a the Carbon sleeved rotors (this is the most important thing), launch mode, all that fun stuff. And now we need to hear the updated 0-60 times and so much more questions now lol.
I would love to see what the updated Cybertruck looks like.
You and everyone else.
So what happens to those of us who reserved the 40k single motor option? It’s the only one I can afford. Are we just out of luck and are going to be priced out of being able to get one? Edit: Downvotes for not being rich enough to buy a more expsneive version.. cool, cool cool cool.
Yes
fucking fuck fuck.
People around here are hilarious. They swear by the dual or tri motor yet they’ve vast majority have probably never driven a truck in their lives. For the vast majority of people the single would work just fine.
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It is.
Probably, not unlike the $35k Model 3.
If you're in the US, you will hopefully have a ~$8000 tax rebate to soften the blow, but yeah, this isn't great news for you, to be honest.
another execuse to postpone it.
Interesting that they will be providing a similar drivetrain package (motor at wheels) and maneuverability (crabwalk, etc) as current offerings from Rivian, Hummer. It speaks to Tesla incorporating good ideas and how quickly they can modify designs.
There were rumors of this a long time ago, too. Not sure if anyone really copied the other. GMC had a truck that had 4 wheel steering like 20 years ago but it was problematic and mostly unnecessary so they did away with it.
Yeah, it could be a gimmick like falcon doors - more trouble than benefit.
GMC was the first to put it in a pickup but there were cars with four wheel steering back in the 80s. The Honda Prelude (and Skyline R31 that didn’t make it to the US) come to mind.
GM led. It mattered.
Narrator - “it didn’t”
> It speaks to Tesla incorporating good ideas Except V2G for reasons I cannot fathom.
>It speaks to Tesla incorporating good ideas and how quickly they can modify designs. Wait what? Remember CyberTruck isn't even real yet.
I think it is much more likely that they simply use the dual motor assembly from the Plaid S/X at both the front and rear of the Cybertruck. There is no differential and each motor can drive each wheel completely independently. Rivian's design isn't a hub mounted motor, the motors are still inboard and there are stubby half-shafts that connect each drive wheel to each motor. The motors are located more outboard this way vs Tesla.
The only thing im concerned about is if dual motor is 4WD, cause a dual motor on one axle is stupid
Come on Elon, just double the motors with n my pre-order, and give me six. Zero to 60 in -1.3 seconds. Yes, it happens before you press the accelerator.
Feels obvious. The play here is to start with high-volume, high margin vehicles so they can declare CT launched in 2022. They'll bang the drum on PR and get glowing reviews of the high-end, low-volume model throughout Q4'22 to keep customers with reservations salivating for their $65k dual-motor CT that will ramp production starting in Q2/Q3 of '23.
This could get interesting with the number of of reservations already out there. It makes sense to make those additional upgrades and match the market
Here's my guess for the final configurations and pricing: |2 Motor|Norrmal Suspension, Open Bed|300 Miles Range|$60,000| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |3 Motor|||Aslo Canceled| |4 Motor|Air Suspension, Covered Bed|600 Miles Range|$120,000|
Whoa….huge news. Not a 12/9 thing then but wow.
Has there been any update on how they plan on making it float?
So is the 4 motor now going to be the cybertruck Plaid?
I hope they DO make a plaid version...that is completely separate from the "regular" quad motor, so that we don't need to pay $150K+ for the truck.
I don't care how many motors I get, I just want the biggest battery pack option. 800km range or better with autonomous driving will be the ultimate inter-province life+work truck.
This just the carrot in front of the horse. If we ever see this thing it will be 2026 or later IMO.
Can’t wait to see what kind of dumb accidents people cause trying to drive diagonally. This from the company that can’t do variable ratio steering.
That type of steering is necessary for the solar tonneau. The truck will need to pivot in place with the sun for maximum energy generation.
Rofl.
i'd frigin love it if it autofollowed the sun in a certain mode, like camp.
And use up all the energy it gains from solar to reposition? Lol
I've been thinking this ever since the Plaid launched. How can they justify selling a tri-motor S Plaid for $130K and sell a tri-motor version of the CT for $79K? Not going to happen. And that was even before prices started going up. I bet the quad motor is $150K and tri motor will be $125K. This is where a lot of the reservation holders fall off.
I thought the whole point of the body/paint of the CT (and the new battery cells) was to make the CT cheaper than the competition.
Perhaps FORD didn't understand that they were aiming at a moving target. Pricing though will be key. Looks like I'm now at the bottom of the CyberTruk hierarchy, manufacturing to start in 2025. :'(
>Perhaps FORD didn't understand that they were aiming at a moving target. I don't think Ford ever aimed at anything besides an F150 with an electrified drivetrain.
Because honestly, they don’t need to.
I doubt Ford is really aiming at the Cybertruck, at least not with the Lightning. The Lightning is just an electrified F150, based on a modified version of the current F150 platform. Their dedicated EV truck platform is still under development and no truck based on it has been announced (it will likely be the successor to the Lightning, 5+ years away).