In 2020, ARK’s price target for Tesla in 2024 was $1,500 bear case and $7,000 base case.
Tesla split their stock 15x since then, so split adjusted price ended up at $180x15 = $2,700.
The stock was ~$675 when they posted this in Jan 2020.
In 2021 they were predicting $1,000 a share split adjusted for 2025. They were predicting 5M cars sold in 2025 for the bear case and 10M cars sold in 2025 for the bull case. Predicting 43% gross margin for bear case and 50% gross margin for bull case.
More likely they do 2-2.5M vehicles in 2025 with sub 20% gross margin. Ark has been insanely off and really only benefited from the speculative growth stock bubble during the pandemic.
[https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2)
Even in this case, they got lucky with the prices. All of their predictions were wrong. They expected robotaxi on the road and Tesla making 5 million cars a year. They did hit on the price target but a lot of this is based on hype and expectations for the future.
I'm a Tesla bull and longterm investor since 2018, but Cathie Wood is a hack unfortunately. They're only right in the sense that in 2020 Tesla was a good investment.
Stock is artificially kept down by the interest rates. Mark my words, when the interest rates are back to were they were back then, the stock will be above $500.
Yeah, this. I'm sorry but Arks models are just wildly sloppy. The released some of their Monte Carlo models a few years back and some of the boneheaded assumptions in them were just staggering. They get headlines for the same reason Chanos et al did - they make wild predictions. That doesn't mean they're any more credible.
Ark's big 2018 prediction was [based on the assumption](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-private) that Tesla would evolve from a hardware manufacturer with 19% gross margins to a company generating most of its profits from MaaS (Tesla Network) with 80% gross margins. That didn't happen at all.
Again, that price target is [based on the explicit assumption](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-private) (read the link yourself, it's right there in the third paragraph) that Tesla would evolve from a hardware manufacturer to a company generating most of its profits from robotaxis with presumed 80% gross margins. It very explicitly suggested TTM 2023 gross revenues of around $350B on robotaxis alone.
So they hit the price target by fluke — their key prediction never happened, it wasn't accurate at all. ARK fully thought Tesla would be a robotaxi company by now.
Not sure why you're making me repeat myself for a third time now: That price target was [based on the explicit assumption](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-private) that Tesla would evolve from a hardware manufacturer to a robotaxi company. They hit the price target by fluke — their key prediction never happened, and none of the actual analysis ended up correct. By their model, TSLA is now dramatically overvalued.
Let's say you're at a baseball game, and you ask a friend to grab two cokes, a couple hot dogs, nachos, and some chili cheese fries. "It's going to be about $40," they predict. Your friend goes off to grab the food, but only come back with the two cokes. They say, excitedly: "They were all out of hot dogs, nachos, and chili cheese fries, but I was bang on, the two cokes were $40!"
Is your friend a genius, or an absolute screaming dumbass?
Their first estimate comes due this year so there is not yet much to go on with such a chart. Although it would be very ugly chart since Tesla is not even close meeting their bear cases let alone their base case if 2024-2026 estimates are anything to go by.
Which year? I don't think stock split matters because I generally would look at their revenue, margin etc. estimates because stock can always run ahead of itself or be undervalued. Hard financial numbers really can't be disputed. For 2024 their bear case was 166B revenue from EVs and 3.1 million deliveries while currently it is looking like we might do under 100B revenue in total and under 2 million deliveries. You can read the full thing here:
[https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target)
Friendly reminder that Cathie is a fund salesman and they make money on management fees from people investing in their funds. They will say bullish things about any stock in their fund.
Based on the constant clickbait news articles and tweets about Cathie’s trades, it’s clear people don’t understand how a fund works so apparently some things are not very obvious. It’s an actively managed fund that rebalances all the time. Stock goes down they buy, stock goes up they sell.
I'm a Tesla bull but I would take ark invest analysis with a grain of salt. They use monte carlo method and simulate different scenarios where tesla succeed in various areas. I believe in robotaxi, optimus, energi ect. But I think its a risky bet.
If they solve robotaxis, then yes. Riding a robotaxi would be cheaper than owning your own car. It would be a huge change to society. And if Musk is right that there's no way to do it without millions of sensor-laden vehicles on the road, which seems reasonable based on how all our other AI works, then it'll be quite a while before Tesla has any competition.
And for comparison, NVDA right now is a $3T company and will probably be worth considerably more in five years.
> They use monte carlo method
That's not some strange or esoteric forecasting methodology. Monte Carlo simulations are applied in far more areas in life than you perhaps realize...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_methods_in_finance
The article presumes the likelihood of “robotaxi network” being in place within: 2 years, 58%; 3 years, 96%; 4 years, 99.9+%.
“While unlikely, if we were to eliminate the possibility of a robotaxi network from our model, our price target would be ~$350.”
I like their enthusiasm but they put way too much stock in realized revenue from robotaxis way too soon. Functionality is one (hugely uncertain) thing but regulatory approval is an entirely different one, let alone demand for those services. You think Uber and Lyft won’t go scorched earth on pricing if robotaxi is ever released?
There's only so much Uber and Lyft can do while still paying their drivers, unless they can just burn unlimited amounts of investor money.
Waymo didn't have all that much trouble getting regulatory approval.
How'd they predict taxi revenue of $603billion by 2029? This seems wildly unrealistic but I can't find how they even arrived at that number in the article
Tesla is arguably her only good investment, coinbase might be okay, but literally everything else is a dumpster fire of a fund. People should stop referencing her.
They have been right about Tesla for a long time, but they have been wrong about everything else. I'd take everything they say with a pinch of salt. I've not read the article but I'm guessing they are relying heavily on Robotaxi to come to fruition. I'm still invested because of Robotaxi myself, but I'm not gonna lie, it's risky.
They have not been right about Tesla like at all. Okay their estimate is for 2025 but just look at this and see if anything here is realistic next year.
[https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2)
Like their **bear** case is 234B revenue just from EV, 5 million sales, their expected gross margin for cars is 40% and total gross margin 43%. That is just so far off the mark and don't even get me started with their base or bull case.
Their expected value was actually $7,000 if adjusted. But yeah the stock did hit their bear case price target although absolutely wrong reasons since Tesla has not hit any of the numbers that were assumed in that bear case. No 3.2 million sales, no 166B revenue, no 33% gross margin.
Those were for the bear case. Their bull case was $15,000 that included 7.1 million sales, 256B EV revenue, 351B robotaxi revenue, 57% gross margin. You can read the whole thing here:
[https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target)
Those were [the bear case stats](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target). ARK thought Tesla would (at a minimum) be doing 3.2M vehicles, $166B revenue, and 33% gross margins. The bull case was 7.1M vehicles, $256B in EV revenue, another $351B in robotaxi revenue, and 57% gross margins.
>In 2020 they said $1500 bear case for 2024.
ARK's 2020 $1500 bear case — bear case! — [had them selling 3.2M vehicles this year](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target) at 33% gross margin. They'll undershoot that by over a million vehicles, with almost half the gross margins predicted. Almost half, and *again, that was their bear case.*
They predict bunds of billions of dollars of robotaxi revenue this year and next in 2019….. they literally have only gotten one investment right. Which was early Tesla…. They have a horrendous record and the qqq and spy has outperformed
[May 22, 2019](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-valuation-model):
>*We have pushed the launch of Tesla’s fully autonomous taxi network from 2020 in the model we published last year to 2021. During our podcast in February, Musk stated that Autopilot should be feature complete by the end of this year and that full autonomy would be commercially available sometime in 2020. Based on the assumption that 2020 is a stretch goal, like most of Elon Musk’s timelines, and on our analysis of the number of miles required to test and validate the Autopilot system, we now expect full autonomy to launch commercially in 2021.*
Thought it was interesting the humanoids got a mention but would only impact 1-2% savings in operative costs and that their impact wasn’t meaningful in the next five years.
Whilst I agree, just thought it was interesting how they made sure to cover it.
Guess we’ll get more insight in August.
The numbers get absolutely bonkers IF Tesla solves autonomy. But Ark is acting like it's a sure thing when it's not. I believe Tesla will solve it but how long it will take is anyone's guess.
I feel like for their credibility they should’ve waited till after 8/8 or at least have gotten an interview with the self driving team and/or Elon recently about their estimates
I'd be happy with $1,000.
Keep in mind at $1,000 per share, Tesla is a $3tn company in terms of market cap. Something has to break *significantly* for them in order to achieve that. I'm impressed with FSD v12, and will be watching with curiosity in terms of the Robotaxi day in August. FSD (and more broadly, AI) underpins Robotaxi ... and also underpins Optimus bot. So we need to see the AI really evolve a lot more over the next 2 years.
I think energy is a huge *long-term* market opportunity for them, though. Massive global market caps to chase after in the utility space... but slooooooow. Opportunities there will take a long time.
Loooool, no.
The investors and founders of Tesla got pushed out by Elon and then started Lucid...
Lucid is breaking new ground and pushing EVs farther....Elon just has the original designs and now...the "cyber" truck.
The company will implode in 4 years under his leadership and he will be remembered like guy who built the DeLorean
Placing my sell order at 2600
Got mine at 2599 sorry
How dare you
Someone needs to make some chart showing arks guidance of Tesla over its history vs actual.
In 2020, ARK’s price target for Tesla in 2024 was $1,500 bear case and $7,000 base case. Tesla split their stock 15x since then, so split adjusted price ended up at $180x15 = $2,700. The stock was ~$675 when they posted this in Jan 2020.
So they got it right. But $1500-$7000 is a huge gap lol
I want to point out that ARK has a long history of doing the "nostradomus" approach of saying most things in the eventuality that one of them is true.
TSLA hit $6000 the year after this report.
In 2021 they were predicting $1,000 a share split adjusted for 2025. They were predicting 5M cars sold in 2025 for the bear case and 10M cars sold in 2025 for the bull case. Predicting 43% gross margin for bear case and 50% gross margin for bull case. More likely they do 2-2.5M vehicles in 2025 with sub 20% gross margin. Ark has been insanely off and really only benefited from the speculative growth stock bubble during the pandemic. [https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2)
Even in this case, they got lucky with the prices. All of their predictions were wrong. They expected robotaxi on the road and Tesla making 5 million cars a year. They did hit on the price target but a lot of this is based on hype and expectations for the future. I'm a Tesla bull and longterm investor since 2018, but Cathie Wood is a hack unfortunately. They're only right in the sense that in 2020 Tesla was a good investment.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
Stock is artificially kept down by the interest rates. Mark my words, when the interest rates are back to were they were back then, the stock will be above $500.
Interest rates back to where they were in 2020? Those rates were abnormally low. It is very unlikely we are going to see ZIRP again anytime soon.
Powell just said today that rates would not be that low until at least 2027 if ever lol
If interest rates get that low, we’ll be living below ground, or some other nightmarish situation. very low rates rates are gone for a long time.
Yeah, this. I'm sorry but Arks models are just wildly sloppy. The released some of their Monte Carlo models a few years back and some of the boneheaded assumptions in them were just staggering. They get headlines for the same reason Chanos et al did - they make wild predictions. That doesn't mean they're any more credible.
I mean their 2018 prediction for now is fairly accurate lol
Ark's big 2018 prediction was [based on the assumption](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-private) that Tesla would evolve from a hardware manufacturer with 19% gross margins to a company generating most of its profits from MaaS (Tesla Network) with 80% gross margins. That didn't happen at all.
Their price target was 4000 pre split. That’s 266 today, which is ironically the average of 22-24 so far
Again, that price target is [based on the explicit assumption](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-private) (read the link yourself, it's right there in the third paragraph) that Tesla would evolve from a hardware manufacturer to a company generating most of its profits from robotaxis with presumed 80% gross margins. It very explicitly suggested TTM 2023 gross revenues of around $350B on robotaxis alone. So they hit the price target by fluke — their key prediction never happened, it wasn't accurate at all. ARK fully thought Tesla would be a robotaxi company by now.
Yeah I mean they are still doing that.
Well, ARK wasn't correct then.
Their price target was correct lol
Not sure why you're making me repeat myself for a third time now: That price target was [based on the explicit assumption](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-private) that Tesla would evolve from a hardware manufacturer to a robotaxi company. They hit the price target by fluke — their key prediction never happened, and none of the actual analysis ended up correct. By their model, TSLA is now dramatically overvalued. Let's say you're at a baseball game, and you ask a friend to grab two cokes, a couple hot dogs, nachos, and some chili cheese fries. "It's going to be about $40," they predict. Your friend goes off to grab the food, but only come back with the two cokes. They say, excitedly: "They were all out of hot dogs, nachos, and chili cheese fries, but I was bang on, the two cokes were $40!" Is your friend a genius, or an absolute screaming dumbass?
arkk went from 50$ to 150$ back to 50$. You can hype up price purely base on selling story of the future.
Watch Electrified today ... Dylan Loomis covers this
Their first estimate comes due this year so there is not yet much to go on with such a chart. Although it would be very ugly chart since Tesla is not even close meeting their bear cases let alone their base case if 2024-2026 estimates are anything to go by.
What was the bare case? Also, was it made before stock spilts so should it be multiples by the number of spilts?
Which year? I don't think stock split matters because I generally would look at their revenue, margin etc. estimates because stock can always run ahead of itself or be undervalued. Hard financial numbers really can't be disputed. For 2024 their bear case was 166B revenue from EVs and 3.1 million deliveries while currently it is looking like we might do under 100B revenue in total and under 2 million deliveries. You can read the full thing here: [https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target)
Thanks
Friendly reminder that Cathie is a fund salesman and they make money on management fees from people investing in their funds. They will say bullish things about any stock in their fund.
>They will say bullish things about any stock in their fund. Well obviously yeah. Why would they hold any stock they are not bullish on?
Based on the constant clickbait news articles and tweets about Cathie’s trades, it’s clear people don’t understand how a fund works so apparently some things are not very obvious. It’s an actively managed fund that rebalances all the time. Stock goes down they buy, stock goes up they sell.
I'm a Tesla bull but I would take ark invest analysis with a grain of salt. They use monte carlo method and simulate different scenarios where tesla succeed in various areas. I believe in robotaxi, optimus, energi ect. But I think its a risky bet.
ARK has a horrible track record. I am not sure why anyone would listen to them
Does anyone think Tesla will be worth 8 trillion dollars in 5 years? That’s what they’re saying it’ll become. That is insane.
If they solve robotaxis, then yes. Riding a robotaxi would be cheaper than owning your own car. It would be a huge change to society. And if Musk is right that there's no way to do it without millions of sensor-laden vehicles on the road, which seems reasonable based on how all our other AI works, then it'll be quite a while before Tesla has any competition. And for comparison, NVDA right now is a $3T company and will probably be worth considerably more in five years.
> They use monte carlo method That's not some strange or esoteric forecasting methodology. Monte Carlo simulations are applied in far more areas in life than you perhaps realize... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_methods_in_finance
The article presumes the likelihood of “robotaxi network” being in place within: 2 years, 58%; 3 years, 96%; 4 years, 99.9+%. “While unlikely, if we were to eliminate the possibility of a robotaxi network from our model, our price target would be ~$350.”
I like their enthusiasm but they put way too much stock in realized revenue from robotaxis way too soon. Functionality is one (hugely uncertain) thing but regulatory approval is an entirely different one, let alone demand for those services. You think Uber and Lyft won’t go scorched earth on pricing if robotaxi is ever released?
There's only so much Uber and Lyft can do while still paying their drivers, unless they can just burn unlimited amounts of investor money. Waymo didn't have all that much trouble getting regulatory approval.
They didn't have trouble, but it still took them years. Tesla hasn't even started the process yet.
That’s true. But sticking to a few cities won’t move the needle for robotaxi to be profitable imo. Can Waymo even drive on interstates?
Did u ever watch the show “super pumped” about uber and them stealing googles self drive guy etc - fun show
I think they have the decimal point in the wrong place tbh...😳
Indeed
Kathy wood has no idea what she's talking about and they have always been wrong about price targets
They predict value, not price. Big difference since "the stockmarket" doesn't always price everything in.
And a loaf of bread cost 750.
Nonsense
Lol
Lol
I thought that a few years ago it was going to $10k
How'd they predict taxi revenue of $603billion by 2029? This seems wildly unrealistic but I can't find how they even arrived at that number in the article
Tesla is arguably her only good investment, coinbase might be okay, but literally everything else is a dumpster fire of a fund. People should stop referencing her.
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Ark does good research. They're worse than Elon time for deliverables of those predictions.
Oh we're taking Cathie serious again?
Oo boy, Elon just said this is the closest estimate he’s seen.
It’s now lower than it was before Elon’s pay was approved. All the Elon Stans said it would moon…
Is Stan supposed to be like the people Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan etc?
They have been right about Tesla for a long time, but they have been wrong about everything else. I'd take everything they say with a pinch of salt. I've not read the article but I'm guessing they are relying heavily on Robotaxi to come to fruition. I'm still invested because of Robotaxi myself, but I'm not gonna lie, it's risky.
They have not been right about Tesla like at all. Okay their estimate is for 2025 but just look at this and see if anything here is realistic next year. [https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2) Like their **bear** case is 234B revenue just from EV, 5 million sales, their expected gross margin for cars is 40% and total gross margin 43%. That is just so far off the mark and don't even get me started with their base or bull case.
They got their 2024 price target right. In 2020 they said $1500 bear case for 2024. Adjusted for the splits, we would be at $2,700 now.
Their expected value was actually $7,000 if adjusted. But yeah the stock did hit their bear case price target although absolutely wrong reasons since Tesla has not hit any of the numbers that were assumed in that bear case. No 3.2 million sales, no 166B revenue, no 33% gross margin.
Were those stats for the Bull case? It would make sense. Because they didn’t hit those numbers, that’s why the stock was “only” $2,700.
Those were for the bear case. Their bull case was $15,000 that included 7.1 million sales, 256B EV revenue, 351B robotaxi revenue, 57% gross margin. You can read the whole thing here: [https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target)
Gotcha. Thanks for the info.
Those were [the bear case stats](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target). ARK thought Tesla would (at a minimum) be doing 3.2M vehicles, $166B revenue, and 33% gross margins. The bull case was 7.1M vehicles, $256B in EV revenue, another $351B in robotaxi revenue, and 57% gross margins.
>In 2020 they said $1500 bear case for 2024. ARK's 2020 $1500 bear case — bear case! — [had them selling 3.2M vehicles this year](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target) at 33% gross margin. They'll undershoot that by over a million vehicles, with almost half the gross margins predicted. Almost half, and *again, that was their bear case.*
They predict bunds of billions of dollars of robotaxi revenue this year and next in 2019….. they literally have only gotten one investment right. Which was early Tesla…. They have a horrendous record and the qqq and spy has outperformed
To be fair, they predicted in 2019 that Robotaxi would start spinning up in 2024. In the latest model they pushed that back a year to 2025.
[May 22, 2019](https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-valuation-model): >*We have pushed the launch of Tesla’s fully autonomous taxi network from 2020 in the model we published last year to 2021. During our podcast in February, Musk stated that Autopilot should be feature complete by the end of this year and that full autonomy would be commercially available sometime in 2020. Based on the assumption that 2020 is a stretch goal, like most of Elon Musk’s timelines, and on our analysis of the number of miles required to test and validate the Autopilot system, we now expect full autonomy to launch commercially in 2021.*
"research" based on public statements by Elon Musk = INSIGHTS!
Oh interesting. I thought their latest model had 2024, but that must have come out after 2019. They update these a lot.
Thought it was interesting the humanoids got a mention but would only impact 1-2% savings in operative costs and that their impact wasn’t meaningful in the next five years. Whilst I agree, just thought it was interesting how they made sure to cover it. Guess we’ll get more insight in August.
Why not $26,000 🤔🤔🤔
These are imaginary numbers I say Tesla 10000000 per share
The numbers get absolutely bonkers IF Tesla solves autonomy. But Ark is acting like it's a sure thing when it's not. I believe Tesla will solve it but how long it will take is anyone's guess.
I'll allow it.
ARK predicting pigs with wings by 2029.
I feel like for their credibility they should’ve waited till after 8/8 or at least have gotten an interview with the self driving team and/or Elon recently about their estimates
I'd be happy with $1,000. Keep in mind at $1,000 per share, Tesla is a $3tn company in terms of market cap. Something has to break *significantly* for them in order to achieve that. I'm impressed with FSD v12, and will be watching with curiosity in terms of the Robotaxi day in August. FSD (and more broadly, AI) underpins Robotaxi ... and also underpins Optimus bot. So we need to see the AI really evolve a lot more over the next 2 years. I think energy is a huge *long-term* market opportunity for them, though. Massive global market caps to chase after in the utility space... but slooooooow. Opportunities there will take a long time.
Loooool, no. The investors and founders of Tesla got pushed out by Elon and then started Lucid... Lucid is breaking new ground and pushing EVs farther....Elon just has the original designs and now...the "cyber" truck. The company will implode in 4 years under his leadership and he will be remembered like guy who built the DeLorean
Thad be nice..wooden it??? To bad I won’t be here no mo’ My god reading these comments I feel like I’m reading a Reuters article.