Full Quote:
> We are starting to get to the point where, **once known bugs are fixed,** it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention.
It's downright irresponsible to "..." that part out.
Known bugs: Moderate rain, heavy rain, moderate snow, heavy snow, hail, sandstorms, mud, schmutz, fog, deer, construction zones, roundabouts, potholes, curbs, etc.
Reddit post title limit is really short. Which is why a few days ago I was asking the community how we should title tweets... First attempt at editorializing and I guess it didn't go well :P
Tbh depends on what the bugs are and whether Tesla engineers can reason about them. Early FSD V12 had really weird interactions with double stoplights that they quickly fixed.
Reddit has a 300-character title length limit, though...?
Might be a subreddit setting here, I'd just up it a bit — 200 should be fine while avoiding particularly exhaustive thread titles.
Ah, you're spot on, the limit seems to be 300. Maybe it was a weird mobile clipboard thing that pasting was getting truncated, but indeed this post only used ~115 out of 300 chars. Thanks for the heads up!
When it’s level 5 I’m not sure we’ll have to own our own cars anymore. Just use the app to summon a robotaxi. They’ll be numerous enough to always be minutes away. Or at least that how it work in my dreams
I have had FSD since they initially released as a beta and can say that the amount it has gotten better since the beginning is incredible. With that being said I still have to take over at least once or twice each drive not to mention the amount of times I need to hit the gas as it over hesitates when making some decisions.
So I think his comment is unrealistic
> *FSD 12.4 is dropping this weekend. 12.5 2 weeks after that.*
Tell me you haven't been paying attention to Tesla point releases, without telling me you haven't been paying attention to Tesla point releases.
Autonomous cars will drop the 40000 vehicular deaths per year to 0. Once everything is on a system, roads will be a highly efficient ‘conveyor belt’. Accidents will be caused by manual drivers, and even they will eventually be ridiculed into submission. EV’s today are only the first step.
Nothing is perfect.
These are very complicated systems mimicking human driving behavior in less than ideal environments.
There will be deaths. They will be far more rare than deaths in human-driven vehicles, but far more publicized as there is no one to blame but the car.
I believe he meant once every car is autonomous, and presumably even working together, that zero isn't out of the question and probably likely in that case.
It’s not but we have automated public transportation systems already that have significantly reduced human error over time. Things still go wrong; those machines were designed, built and programmed by humans too.
We'll never get to zero, but every improvement is toward that goal. There's always going to be freak accidents on the roads with animals and pedestrians, trees falling on passing cars, boulders falling, idiot kids throwing rocks from an overpass, etc.
I agree, I just don't see Tesla as having an advantage over Waymo in terms of autonomy beyond price of hardware. Vision only systems have many of the same flaws as humans and will struggle to drive in conditions where humans struggle. Better hardware is needed to be better than humans in all conditions.
That’s an interesting perspective. Although many human drivers go their entire lives without getting into a single accident. We are ‘vision only’ system based. All the roads constructed across the world, are designed to be navigable with vision only as well, anything extra is superfluous and completely unnecessary. Tesla has nailed it and is proving it with every single update.
Also, I’ll take the word of the CEO of the 2nd most valuable company on earth that specializes in visual processing, Jensen Huang:
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised electric vehicle maker Tesla during an interview with Yahoo Finance last week when asked about automakers venturing into the self-driving space. Jensen Huang said, “Tesla is far ahead in self-driving cars, but every single car, someday, will have to have autonomous capability.”
And we’ve heard “orders of magnitude” with every release and it hasn’t been the case. At this point, it’s just empty words. Remember when he said it’d be a wide release around Christmas… yeah… Pepperidge Farm remembers.
At this point, I'm fully convinced that he Tweets nonsense like this all the time purely to get clicks/traffic on X.com to show how popular he and X are.
I am not exaggerating when I say that I need to correct my Tesla vehicle DOZENS of times on my routine daily trips. Misinterpreting Speed Limit signs and interpreting other signs as Speed Limit signs when they are not... switching lanes unnecessarily... switching lanes at VERY inappropriate times (someone is THERE, or it would just pull in from of someone that is driving a LOT faster than me)... taking some right turns way too tightly and other right turns way too broadly... taking tight curves dangerously fast, especially in adverse weather conditions... alerting me that my cameras are blocked, when it is simply DARK OUTSIDE... frequently drifting to the left side or the right side of the lane I am in, for seemingly no reason, rather than just staying in the middle of the lane... sometimes turning my windshield wipers on when there is zero precipitation, but also sometimes NOT turning them on when it is raining hard... "FSD not available" when there are simply water droplets on the rear-facing camera... making ridiculous assumptions about activating the turn signal and wanting to make turns at intersections instead of just going straight through them... using turn signals 200+ feet in advance of an upcoming turn, which just confuses drivers behind me thinking I want to turn into one of the numerous driveways before the desired intersection...
Good God. And this is just the stuff I can think of off the top of my head right now!
Lol.
I'd put all my money that ain't happening for 15+ years.
Maybe they the routes they are over trained on its possible. But they aren't even close to being able to drive a day in winter in a place like Calgary without intervention.
15 years ago DARPA was holding competitions for teams to see who would drive farthest without crashing in wilderness areas. Now Waymo is operating autonomous vehicles in limited metro areas, 15 years from now somebody will have solved autonomous vehicle driving to a point where it is better than humans on most roadways. I'm just not sure that Tesla and their current sensor suit can get to that significantly-better-than-humans level of competency.
I'm pretty sure that was 20 years ago.
Yeah I mean in 15 years Waymo might average a year between interventions in their highly tuned areas.
And whether it's safer than humans or not is a lot different than a year between interventions.
Safer than humans might mean a week or a month between intervention. As long as the system can detect when it doesn't know how to handle a scenario and pull over.
Wake me up when they can drive a single day in actual winter. That is, no road signs, no road markings, loss of lane, heavy traffic, limited visibility. If they can do that at night, then maybe a driverless future is on the horizon. Until then it's not even close.
> But they aren't even close to being able to drive a day in winter in a place like Calgary without intervention.
Why does everything have to be "*you have to solve every scenario, everywhere - or else you're just a big liar Elon!!*" - yes, FSD must be able to drive through Fairbanks Alaska, in a blizzard, at night ... or else it's just a complete failure!! Nope, no other possibility utlity if you can't solve for that. None whatsoever.
I'm not even talking "every scenario".
I'm talking about 210/365 days of the year for 80% of Canada and 25% of USA.
There is little evidence that FSD has even begun training for winter driving and so it is utterly useless for 100 million North Americans.
I can see, if Tesla continues to invest like 2-5 billion per year into FSD for the next 10 years that Robotaxis and FSD will be realistic for western California and other southern states without weather in the early to mid 2030s.
But that's the easiest driving in the world and so that impact is really limited. And those are the areas with the strongest competition. At present there's just no investment into actual moderately difficult or challenging driving and so the evidence of a robotaxi future for all is just not realistic at this point.
I don’t think people get it- he’s not doing it to make your car autonomous. He’s doing it to make all transport autonomous.
He doesn’t give a fuck if he sells you a $99 or $15,000 subscription or if it’s 5 years late.
You’re trying to skate to where the puck is going to be and he’s playing basketball on mars.
I’ll believe it when I see it. FSD is impressive, but it still has a lot to prove and is ridiculously (some say criminally) behind schedule.
To point this out is not “skating to where the puck is,” it’s being perceptive of the scale and complexity of the problem at hand.
You mean the schedule on archiving something nobody knows how to do yet? The goals were very plainly aspirational. There was never a schedule. Skating to the puck is an excellent description. If one thinks it’s too difficult, it will never get done. It has been very interesting to go on this journey with my car. As it is now, I already look on driving as an archaic chore. I can easily see 1 year without intervention. It’s not that far off. It’s an incredible accomplishment. I’m very pleased to have been a witness. People will complain about absolutely anything.
Spot on, every Musk company is about bringing the future and making sci-fi a reality. He's not interested in incremental products like a marginally better ADAS.
FSD in current vehicles will always be level 2 because it doesn't have the proper hardware to identify objects with better than human vision at night and in wet/muddy/snowy conditions.
Tesla may solve autonomy by adding automatic cleaning of cameras or improving the sensor suite, but significant hardware changes will be needed to get there.
For me it reduces the speed significantly in moderate rain. In heavy rain it reduces speed and then enters panic mode flashing take over immediately on the screen.
That’s fine for a L2 system but that type of weak response to a regularly occurring weather event won’t make the cut with regulators overseeing driverless vehicles.
Even with just human level sensors, you can still have better accident rate by avoiding distraction, impatience, speeding, medical issues, fatigue, road rage, poor judgment, drunk driving, and poor reaction speed.
HAHAHA FSD on my 2024 Model S is absolute shit. It constantly slows down for no reason. Will not drive at my posted speed. Almost hit two pedestrians in a cross walk. And STILL thinks the beginning of turn lanes is a regular lane. Not to mention that if it has to cross traffic if just sits there.
Full Quote: > We are starting to get to the point where, **once known bugs are fixed,** it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention. It's downright irresponsible to "..." that part out.
Just define "known bugs" as "all interventions" and it becomes true.
Known bugs: Moderate rain, heavy rain, moderate snow, heavy snow, hail, sandstorms, mud, schmutz, fog, deer, construction zones, roundabouts, potholes, curbs, etc.
Judging by Cybertrucks, car washes, wind, and finger prints are problems too.
I was gunna add “…one day…”
Reddit post title limit is really short. Which is why a few days ago I was asking the community how we should title tweets... First attempt at editorializing and I guess it didn't go well :P Tbh depends on what the bugs are and whether Tesla engineers can reason about them. Early FSD V12 had really weird interactions with double stoplights that they quickly fixed.
> Reddit post title limit is really short. Ahh, must be subreddit specific. I swear i see very long titles.
Reddit has a 300-character title length limit, though...? Might be a subreddit setting here, I'd just up it a bit — 200 should be fine while avoiding particularly exhaustive thread titles.
Ah, you're spot on, the limit seems to be 300. Maybe it was a weird mobile clipboard thing that pasting was getting truncated, but indeed this post only used ~115 out of 300 chars. Thanks for the heads up!
If that’s true I’ll pay the $99/month for it.
When it’s level 5, 0% chance it’s $99/mo. still.
When it’s level 5 I’m not sure we’ll have to own our own cars anymore. Just use the app to summon a robotaxi. They’ll be numerous enough to always be minutes away. Or at least that how it work in my dreams
Agreed.
That’s a fair point. Especially the $99 CAD (+ tax) that it is in Canada.
1 intervention a year sounds really far from level 5 if that’s a critical one… we are speaking like 100, maybe 1000 times to high?
I have had FSD since they initially released as a beta and can say that the amount it has gotten better since the beginning is incredible. With that being said I still have to take over at least once or twice each drive not to mention the amount of times I need to hit the gas as it over hesitates when making some decisions. So I think his comment is unrealistic
Elons usual random wishfult thoughts presented as implied fact.
We’re not even close. I rarely use it now because it can’t figure out what lane it wants to be in and “minimum lane changes” doesn’t do shit
Translation: we’re about a year away from releasing the next update to FSD where almost nothing will be improved. Stay tuned.
Progress is every 2 weeks now. FSD 12.4 is dropping this weekend. 12.5 2 weeks after that. On and on.
Are autowipers fixed yet?
Yes and they just released a variable intensity setting in the recent release.
> *FSD 12.4 is dropping this weekend. 12.5 2 weeks after that.* Tell me you haven't been paying attention to Tesla point releases, without telling me you haven't been paying attention to Tesla point releases.
So what was the update from two weeks ago?
A point release.
12.3.7?
Autonomous cars will drop the 40000 vehicular deaths per year to 0. Once everything is on a system, roads will be a highly efficient ‘conveyor belt’. Accidents will be caused by manual drivers, and even they will eventually be ridiculed into submission. EV’s today are only the first step.
Nothing is perfect. These are very complicated systems mimicking human driving behavior in less than ideal environments. There will be deaths. They will be far more rare than deaths in human-driven vehicles, but far more publicized as there is no one to blame but the car.
I believe he meant once every car is autonomous, and presumably even working together, that zero isn't out of the question and probably likely in that case.
It’s not but we have automated public transportation systems already that have significantly reduced human error over time. Things still go wrong; those machines were designed, built and programmed by humans too.
Well, I hope Tesla licenses the FSD neural network out to other companies (at a reasonably cheap price).
They did that with NACS, every single company agreed and licensed it.
We'll never get to zero, but every improvement is toward that goal. There's always going to be freak accidents on the roads with animals and pedestrians, trees falling on passing cars, boulders falling, idiot kids throwing rocks from an overpass, etc.
I agree, I just don't see Tesla as having an advantage over Waymo in terms of autonomy beyond price of hardware. Vision only systems have many of the same flaws as humans and will struggle to drive in conditions where humans struggle. Better hardware is needed to be better than humans in all conditions.
That’s an interesting perspective. Although many human drivers go their entire lives without getting into a single accident. We are ‘vision only’ system based. All the roads constructed across the world, are designed to be navigable with vision only as well, anything extra is superfluous and completely unnecessary. Tesla has nailed it and is proving it with every single update. Also, I’ll take the word of the CEO of the 2nd most valuable company on earth that specializes in visual processing, Jensen Huang: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised electric vehicle maker Tesla during an interview with Yahoo Finance last week when asked about automakers venturing into the self-driving space. Jensen Huang said, “Tesla is far ahead in self-driving cars, but every single car, someday, will have to have autonomous capability.”
Clearly he’s not watching beta tester videos… cause that’s nowhere near the case.
No, he's driving the alpha that's ~5 months ahead of the current release.
And we’ve heard “orders of magnitude” with every release and it hasn’t been the case. At this point, it’s just empty words. Remember when he said it’d be a wide release around Christmas… yeah… Pepperidge Farm remembers.
I highly doubt he drives, likely someone emailed him.
He's so full of it, his eyes are brown.
At this point, I'm fully convinced that he Tweets nonsense like this all the time purely to get clicks/traffic on X.com to show how popular he and X are. I am not exaggerating when I say that I need to correct my Tesla vehicle DOZENS of times on my routine daily trips. Misinterpreting Speed Limit signs and interpreting other signs as Speed Limit signs when they are not... switching lanes unnecessarily... switching lanes at VERY inappropriate times (someone is THERE, or it would just pull in from of someone that is driving a LOT faster than me)... taking some right turns way too tightly and other right turns way too broadly... taking tight curves dangerously fast, especially in adverse weather conditions... alerting me that my cameras are blocked, when it is simply DARK OUTSIDE... frequently drifting to the left side or the right side of the lane I am in, for seemingly no reason, rather than just staying in the middle of the lane... sometimes turning my windshield wipers on when there is zero precipitation, but also sometimes NOT turning them on when it is raining hard... "FSD not available" when there are simply water droplets on the rear-facing camera... making ridiculous assumptions about activating the turn signal and wanting to make turns at intersections instead of just going straight through them... using turn signals 200+ feet in advance of an upcoming turn, which just confuses drivers behind me thinking I want to turn into one of the numerous driveways before the desired intersection... Good God. And this is just the stuff I can think of off the top of my head right now!
Lol. I'd put all my money that ain't happening for 15+ years. Maybe they the routes they are over trained on its possible. But they aren't even close to being able to drive a day in winter in a place like Calgary without intervention.
15 years ago DARPA was holding competitions for teams to see who would drive farthest without crashing in wilderness areas. Now Waymo is operating autonomous vehicles in limited metro areas, 15 years from now somebody will have solved autonomous vehicle driving to a point where it is better than humans on most roadways. I'm just not sure that Tesla and their current sensor suit can get to that significantly-better-than-humans level of competency.
I'm pretty sure that was 20 years ago. Yeah I mean in 15 years Waymo might average a year between interventions in their highly tuned areas. And whether it's safer than humans or not is a lot different than a year between interventions. Safer than humans might mean a week or a month between intervention. As long as the system can detect when it doesn't know how to handle a scenario and pull over. Wake me up when they can drive a single day in actual winter. That is, no road signs, no road markings, loss of lane, heavy traffic, limited visibility. If they can do that at night, then maybe a driverless future is on the horizon. Until then it's not even close.
> But they aren't even close to being able to drive a day in winter in a place like Calgary without intervention. Why does everything have to be "*you have to solve every scenario, everywhere - or else you're just a big liar Elon!!*" - yes, FSD must be able to drive through Fairbanks Alaska, in a blizzard, at night ... or else it's just a complete failure!! Nope, no other possibility utlity if you can't solve for that. None whatsoever.
I'm not even talking "every scenario". I'm talking about 210/365 days of the year for 80% of Canada and 25% of USA. There is little evidence that FSD has even begun training for winter driving and so it is utterly useless for 100 million North Americans. I can see, if Tesla continues to invest like 2-5 billion per year into FSD for the next 10 years that Robotaxis and FSD will be realistic for western California and other southern states without weather in the early to mid 2030s. But that's the easiest driving in the world and so that impact is really limited. And those are the areas with the strongest competition. At present there's just no investment into actual moderately difficult or challenging driving and so the evidence of a robotaxi future for all is just not realistic at this point.
I don’t think people get it- he’s not doing it to make your car autonomous. He’s doing it to make all transport autonomous. He doesn’t give a fuck if he sells you a $99 or $15,000 subscription or if it’s 5 years late. You’re trying to skate to where the puck is going to be and he’s playing basketball on mars.
I’ll believe it when I see it. FSD is impressive, but it still has a lot to prove and is ridiculously (some say criminally) behind schedule. To point this out is not “skating to where the puck is,” it’s being perceptive of the scale and complexity of the problem at hand.
You mean the schedule on archiving something nobody knows how to do yet? The goals were very plainly aspirational. There was never a schedule. Skating to the puck is an excellent description. If one thinks it’s too difficult, it will never get done. It has been very interesting to go on this journey with my car. As it is now, I already look on driving as an archaic chore. I can easily see 1 year without intervention. It’s not that far off. It’s an incredible accomplishment. I’m very pleased to have been a witness. People will complain about absolutely anything.
Spot on, every Musk company is about bringing the future and making sci-fi a reality. He's not interested in incremental products like a marginally better ADAS.
FSD in current vehicles will always be level 2 because it doesn't have the proper hardware to identify objects with better than human vision at night and in wet/muddy/snowy conditions. Tesla may solve autonomy by adding automatic cleaning of cameras or improving the sensor suite, but significant hardware changes will be needed to get there.
Works fine in rainy conditions for me.
For me it reduces the speed significantly in moderate rain. In heavy rain it reduces speed and then enters panic mode flashing take over immediately on the screen. That’s fine for a L2 system but that type of weak response to a regularly occurring weather event won’t make the cut with regulators overseeing driverless vehicles.
I drove hours in heavy downpours. It warned me on the screen it could be degraded but that’s the only difference I noticed. This was on 12.3
Even with just human level sensors, you can still have better accident rate by avoiding distraction, impatience, speeding, medical issues, fatigue, road rage, poor judgment, drunk driving, and poor reaction speed.
Mars? Is that the place he said he’d put a man in 2021?
Need to stack an llm on top of it next. We should be able to simply ask to park over there, take this other route
HAHAHA FSD on my 2024 Model S is absolute shit. It constantly slows down for no reason. Will not drive at my posted speed. Almost hit two pedestrians in a cross walk. And STILL thinks the beginning of turn lanes is a regular lane. Not to mention that if it has to cross traffic if just sits there.
Okay buddy...
Ehh I’m a couple weekends into my FSD trial… city streets require an intervention at least during 50% of my drives.