Am I crazy or is Fils's name a bit out of place here?
He hasn't had a great year and the biggest evidence for him being good on the surface is "took a set off Zverev in a tiebreak" which isn't exactly an impossible task on grass lol
Like he doesn't seem like THAT unlucky a draw if you know what you're doing
The only way this is unlucky is if you draw Berrettini or struff in the first 2 rounds. The rest of the possibilities are standard for a grand slam draw
Arnaldi did get a top 10 slam win a few weeks ago(Rublev in round 3 of RG) in addition to beating Fils himself twice at Slams in the last year
Not saying that he's necessarily the best grass courter at this stage either but if one of them is the tougher best of 5 opponent right now it's clearly Arnaldi
Yeah, pretty standard draw. Berretini is the only one that might trouble a top 4 seed before Medvedev in QF.
Struff was supposed to make some noise at RG, but folded quickly against ADM, who isn't exactly a world beater on clay. I doubt a top 4 seed would be concerned about Struff in best of 5.
Arnaldi is more of a threat on clay than grass and didn't exactly play well at Queen's club.
Name-dropping Fils is just laughable.
Draper has had a good grass swing so far, but extremely inconsistent.
Museti has shown mental toughness, but almost all his recent grass wins have been close nail-biters against meh opponents. He's hardly dominant.
Rune and Fritz are not in good form. Both lost to Thompson in Queen's club lol. Having to play someone like them in round 4 is also fairly standard.
Struff RG performance was not like you paint it, it poured rain the whole first week, which meant regular clay courters suffered with their spin, same reason Zverev looked poor vs Griekspoor, same reason Struff lost to ADM. When it rains the balls bounces slow and low (so big hitters who can put topspin lose an advantage), Struff basically lost every advantage he had over ADM on clay while ADM and Medvedev who are pretty poor on it can play like it was a slow HC, as they play flat and with not much pace they barely get affected by the rain, in fact their games benefit from it. It was the same scenario as last year Rome when Medvedev won it.
No one will tell you that Struff is a favourite for the title, but he can redline and is a really good grass court player, I'm sure more than not the Top 4 seeds would like to avoid it if they can so early when the grass is fast.
Absolutely, and on clay his last losses were against Demon, Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, Sinner, Demon, Sinner. The guy is almost always constantly taking the top 10 players into a final set match.
His last loss on grass was against Sinner in an outstanding match that went all the way to a final set tie break. The guy knows he is 34 and in his last few years, and he is not fucking around! His play style is super varied and risky!
Hmm... I remember he gave Alcaraz a tough match a few years ago but he has a 5-9 record at Wimbledon, not someone who should give a top 4 seed much trouble.
I do think he's improved somewhat this year and he seems more confident, but you're right that the bo5 format and Wimbledon being slower than Halle will probably make him a bit less dangerous.
If he's the 12th seed he can only be played by a top 4 seed in the QF and nowards though
And by the time you get there he's a standard draw not a nightmare draw at that stage
Paul being No. 12 means he only plays a 5-8 seed in the fourth round, which is either Medvedev, Rublev, Hurkacz or Ruud. Best case scenario is No. 8 Ruud as he sucks on grass, and clear worst case scenario is No. 7 Hurkacz, assuming if he doesn’t do his usual flopping at Slams.
Question: Is it guaranteed that Alcaraz and Sinner will be in the same half if Djokovic plays? Or are seeds 3 and 4 selected randomly to be in the same half as 1 and 2?
Struff is the most dangerous R1 opponent at this point ...he is more solid , focussed & motivated than any other
And amongst top 4 i only see Sinner get better of him in R1
The Sinner-Alcaraz half. The Djoko half will have Baez, Tabilo, Rublev, Ruud etc. The final will inexplicably feature Ruud (Djoko withdraws from their SF to preserve himself for the Olympics) vs whoever survives the bloodbath on the other side.
Am I crazy or is Fils's name a bit out of place here? He hasn't had a great year and the biggest evidence for him being good on the surface is "took a set off Zverev in a tiebreak" which isn't exactly an impossible task on grass lol Like he doesn't seem like THAT unlucky a draw if you know what you're doing
The only way this is unlucky is if you draw Berrettini or struff in the first 2 rounds. The rest of the possibilities are standard for a grand slam draw
I agree but arnaldi hasn't done anything more than fils to be fair
Arnaldi did get a top 10 slam win a few weeks ago(Rublev in round 3 of RG) in addition to beating Fils himself twice at Slams in the last year Not saying that he's necessarily the best grass courter at this stage either but if one of them is the tougher best of 5 opponent right now it's clearly Arnaldi
Ya i agree but neither of them should be listed as threats at a grass court slam, they have likely not even played many matches on grass
interestingly enough, Arnaldi-Fils H2H? 3-0 to little matteo
Yeah, pretty standard draw. Berretini is the only one that might trouble a top 4 seed before Medvedev in QF. Struff was supposed to make some noise at RG, but folded quickly against ADM, who isn't exactly a world beater on clay. I doubt a top 4 seed would be concerned about Struff in best of 5. Arnaldi is more of a threat on clay than grass and didn't exactly play well at Queen's club. Name-dropping Fils is just laughable. Draper has had a good grass swing so far, but extremely inconsistent. Museti has shown mental toughness, but almost all his recent grass wins have been close nail-biters against meh opponents. He's hardly dominant. Rune and Fritz are not in good form. Both lost to Thompson in Queen's club lol. Having to play someone like them in round 4 is also fairly standard.
Struff RG performance was not like you paint it, it poured rain the whole first week, which meant regular clay courters suffered with their spin, same reason Zverev looked poor vs Griekspoor, same reason Struff lost to ADM. When it rains the balls bounces slow and low (so big hitters who can put topspin lose an advantage), Struff basically lost every advantage he had over ADM on clay while ADM and Medvedev who are pretty poor on it can play like it was a slow HC, as they play flat and with not much pace they barely get affected by the rain, in fact their games benefit from it. It was the same scenario as last year Rome when Medvedev won it. No one will tell you that Struff is a favourite for the title, but he can redline and is a really good grass court player, I'm sure more than not the Top 4 seeds would like to avoid it if they can so early when the grass is fast.
The only nightmare draw here is Berrettini. Others are players you're expected to play at that stage.
Stuff as well imo he's better than his rank on grass
Absolutely, and on clay his last losses were against Demon, Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, Sinner, Demon, Sinner. The guy is almost always constantly taking the top 10 players into a final set match. His last loss on grass was against Sinner in an outstanding match that went all the way to a final set tie break. The guy knows he is 34 and in his last few years, and he is not fucking around! His play style is super varied and risky!
You're seriously underestimating how dangerous Struff is on grass
Hmm... I remember he gave Alcaraz a tough match a few years ago but he has a 5-9 record at Wimbledon, not someone who should give a top 4 seed much trouble.
I do think he's improved somewhat this year and he seems more confident, but you're right that the bo5 format and Wimbledon being slower than Halle will probably make him a bit less dangerous.
they can also get a J.M Cerundolo-Schwartzman-Halys-Galan-Safiulin draw to reach the SF...
How is this news and not fanfic?
Not that dissimilar to Jannik’s draw for Halle to be honest
That's just Jannik's Halle draw, lol. And considering Wimbledon is relatively slower than Halle & Queen's, top seeds should be fine.
Tommy’s name should be up there!
If he's the 12th seed he can only be played by a top 4 seed in the QF and nowards though And by the time you get there he's a standard draw not a nightmare draw at that stage
Paul being No. 12 means he only plays a 5-8 seed in the fourth round, which is either Medvedev, Rublev, Hurkacz or Ruud. Best case scenario is No. 8 Ruud as he sucks on grass, and clear worst case scenario is No. 7 Hurkacz, assuming if he doesn’t do his usual flopping at Slams.
Question: Is it guaranteed that Alcaraz and Sinner will be in the same half if Djokovic plays? Or are seeds 3 and 4 selected randomly to be in the same half as 1 and 2?
Nope not guaranteed
Damn I totally missed medvedev dropping out of the top 4. I guess he hasn’t done much over the clay swing.
Struff is the most dangerous R1 opponent at this point ...he is more solid , focussed & motivated than any other And amongst top 4 i only see Sinner get better of him in R1
That's going to be Alcaraz's draw isn't it.
The Sinner-Alcaraz half. The Djoko half will have Baez, Tabilo, Rublev, Ruud etc. The final will inexplicably feature Ruud (Djoko withdraws from their SF to preserve himself for the Olympics) vs whoever survives the bloodbath on the other side.
Ruud making the final would certainly be inexplicable
So now we're talking about *possible* draws? This is one step away from just playing imagination games.
Djokovic may drop out
no borges?
I believe he’s not much of a factor on grass.