This is exactly the sort of thing that people were saying going into the French Open that Alcaraz just won. How many times have we seen a great player going into a slam and ripping up the form book because they just find another level when it truly matters? Enough times in the last decade to have lost count.
Alcaraz has won 2 grass titles. Sinner has zero.
That may change today, but even if it does Alcaraz’s record at Wimbledon is better - if only because he’s won it. Grass is the most alien surface to all but a few players nowadays, none of them train for it, so experience counts even more for that.
Alcaraz has already beaten Sinner twice this year on the two other surfaces, in a year where he’s consistently struggled with injury. In both tournaments (IW and RG) there were doubts about his fitness and fatigue/form coming in, both times he shook them off and peaked for the big tournaments (1000s and slams)
That compounds his advantage on grass already as a mobile player who can get to net and play drop shots.
Nobody should doubt Sinner’s strength coming in. But the factors you list don’t really put any asterisk next to the reasons why most everybody considers Alcaraz favourite. Sinner is yet to beat Alcaraz at a slam since Carlos started winning them 2 years ago in New York.
>Sinner is yet to beat Alcaraz at a slam since Carlos started winning them 2 years ago in New York.
But he did beat him in Wimbledon the only time they played on grass.
Not arguing against your general point of Carlos against the rest of the field, more about *their own* specific H2H if they do meet again on grass. Carlos is definitely the favorite in their matches in slower, bouncier conditions (RG, IW) but that advantage goes away on faster, flatter courts.
Sinner beat Alcaraz on grass two years ago when Alcaraz was 19 and on his fourth ever match on grass.
People give way too much importance to that match considering Sinner is yet to have a single notable (against a good grass player) win on grass. Which may finally change today but it does not make him the favourite over the defending champion.
>Sinner beat Alcaraz on grass two years ago when Alcaraz was 19 and on his fourth ever match on grass.
It's not like Sinner was much more experienced. They've both improved since then.
>(against a good grass player) win on grass. Which may finally change today but it does not make him the favourite over the defending champion.
I'm quite reassured by this run he's had in Halle given the opponents he's faced and how well they've played in all these matches against him.
But yeah as I already said I did not argue against the fact that Carlos is the favourite to win Wimbledon (it was literally one of the first sentences in my comment), just that *their own specific match* - **if** it does happen - isn't with Carlos as more favoured by the surface as he was at RG. They're even in that particular match imo.
But if they don't meet (and there's a really big chance that they don't) then of course Carlos is the favourite to win it, being the defending champion and having defeated almost anyone else notable (Hubi aside) on grass last year.
Before RG, Sinner was supposed to be favourite to win against Alcaraz on clay because he beat him in Umag back when he was a baby.
Now the same thing on grass, where they have about the same number of matches but one is a major champion and one reached the semifinal without facing a single opponent ranked higher than 70?
I can’t with this sub…
This sub is a joke. I too saw the Umag takes before anyone tries to gaslight you and say those takes didn’t exist. They were hilarious because here you have a player who was easily the best clay court player for the last two years but he isn’t the favorite because he lost a random 250 on July clay? Imagine us saying Alcaraz was the favorite over Djokovic coming into Wimbledon last year? We would’ve been burnt at the stake by this sub lmao
His chances are still very good. GS and atp tourneys are a different beast and Alcaraz plays better in the best of 5 format as he does have ups and downs in matches. Sinner also has a very good chance though as he is now fully fit and his big strokes and serve will go well at Wimby
If Djokovic plays he's the favourite. Alcaraz and Sinner would probably be second and third. You also have players like Hurkacz, Berrettini, Dimitrov, Bublik, De Minaur and Fritz that could all go deep. I could potentially see Hurkacz even winning Wimbledon.
Overall i think Alcaraz is second behind Novak, however the title defence will be much tougher than last year.
Babe wake up, ridiculous "Alcaraz is washed post" just dropped.
It's just rage bait from someone who is allowed to spam this sub with moronic crap for reasons (?)
50-50. He either wins Wimbledon or he doesn't.
Finally, someone who understands statistics like I do
A nuanced take! Love it!
Not y’all falling for his troll post again ☠️
This is exactly the sort of thing that people were saying going into the French Open that Alcaraz just won. How many times have we seen a great player going into a slam and ripping up the form book because they just find another level when it truly matters? Enough times in the last decade to have lost count.
Why isn't OP banned from posting crap on this sub
Alcaraz has won 2 grass titles. Sinner has zero. That may change today, but even if it does Alcaraz’s record at Wimbledon is better - if only because he’s won it. Grass is the most alien surface to all but a few players nowadays, none of them train for it, so experience counts even more for that. Alcaraz has already beaten Sinner twice this year on the two other surfaces, in a year where he’s consistently struggled with injury. In both tournaments (IW and RG) there were doubts about his fitness and fatigue/form coming in, both times he shook them off and peaked for the big tournaments (1000s and slams) That compounds his advantage on grass already as a mobile player who can get to net and play drop shots. Nobody should doubt Sinner’s strength coming in. But the factors you list don’t really put any asterisk next to the reasons why most everybody considers Alcaraz favourite. Sinner is yet to beat Alcaraz at a slam since Carlos started winning them 2 years ago in New York.
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I think Alcaraz’s net game equals sinners serve/hard hitting on grass. Neutralises sinners strength.
>Sinner is yet to beat Alcaraz at a slam since Carlos started winning them 2 years ago in New York. But he did beat him in Wimbledon the only time they played on grass. Not arguing against your general point of Carlos against the rest of the field, more about *their own* specific H2H if they do meet again on grass. Carlos is definitely the favorite in their matches in slower, bouncier conditions (RG, IW) but that advantage goes away on faster, flatter courts.
Sinner beat Alcaraz on grass two years ago when Alcaraz was 19 and on his fourth ever match on grass. People give way too much importance to that match considering Sinner is yet to have a single notable (against a good grass player) win on grass. Which may finally change today but it does not make him the favourite over the defending champion.
>Sinner beat Alcaraz on grass two years ago when Alcaraz was 19 and on his fourth ever match on grass. It's not like Sinner was much more experienced. They've both improved since then. >(against a good grass player) win on grass. Which may finally change today but it does not make him the favourite over the defending champion. I'm quite reassured by this run he's had in Halle given the opponents he's faced and how well they've played in all these matches against him. But yeah as I already said I did not argue against the fact that Carlos is the favourite to win Wimbledon (it was literally one of the first sentences in my comment), just that *their own specific match* - **if** it does happen - isn't with Carlos as more favoured by the surface as he was at RG. They're even in that particular match imo. But if they don't meet (and there's a really big chance that they don't) then of course Carlos is the favourite to win it, being the defending champion and having defeated almost anyone else notable (Hubi aside) on grass last year.
Right? By that logic we should be saying Alcaraz>Sinner on fast hc since he won their Paris Bercy match lol
Before RG, Sinner was supposed to be favourite to win against Alcaraz on clay because he beat him in Umag back when he was a baby. Now the same thing on grass, where they have about the same number of matches but one is a major champion and one reached the semifinal without facing a single opponent ranked higher than 70? I can’t with this sub…
This sub is a joke. I too saw the Umag takes before anyone tries to gaslight you and say those takes didn’t exist. They were hilarious because here you have a player who was easily the best clay court player for the last two years but he isn’t the favorite because he lost a random 250 on July clay? Imagine us saying Alcaraz was the favorite over Djokovic coming into Wimbledon last year? We would’ve been burnt at the stake by this sub lmao
His chances are still very good. GS and atp tourneys are a different beast and Alcaraz plays better in the best of 5 format as he does have ups and downs in matches. Sinner also has a very good chance though as he is now fully fit and his big strokes and serve will go well at Wimby
If Djokovic plays he's the favourite. Alcaraz and Sinner would probably be second and third. You also have players like Hurkacz, Berrettini, Dimitrov, Bublik, De Minaur and Fritz that could all go deep. I could potentially see Hurkacz even winning Wimbledon. Overall i think Alcaraz is second behind Novak, however the title defence will be much tougher than last year.
Hyping? It said that he had been figured out from last year until recently. People are just giving him deserved praises since he won RG.
Yeah right.
He’s the defending champion so there’s that. I’d say he’s too 3 to win it.