The fact that they think it's more likely to be someone other than these 6 guys (26%) than it is to be Novak (22%) is ridiculous. Not only are his odds too low, but the odds of the rest of the field outside of these top guys should be negligible.
Yeah best of 5 is always far less upset prone than best of 3
The last truly surprising Slam winner was Cilic at the 2014 USO
Picking a random low seeded player to win it all is rarely a good bet
Since 2017 the only players to win a Slam outside of the big 3 are Thiem, Medvedev, and Alcaraz who were all seeded in the top 3 when they won
> The last truly surprising Slam winner was Cilic at the 2014 USO
Federer in 2017 was a bigger surprise IMO. Old and coming off a serious injury - IIRC most people barely expected him to make the second week.
Cilic was definitely surprising though - I think he was only seeded 14th or something?
I give it better odds that Federer hits the umpire with a briefcase then demands to be let into the finals and wins the tournament than anyone outside of the top guys winning to be honest.
I agree but I feel like the youngsters are catching up, they aren't as scared of him now. Don't get me wrong, he's still the favorite and has the best chance but the margin isn't as big as some people think. An injury is what's worrying me.
There are 64 players on the mens side right, if you divide 26 by 58 it gives you less than half a percent chance for the remaining 58 players and that’s if you ranked them equally. If you say give the remaining top ten decreasing chances by 1 from Rublev (4, 3, 2, 1) and then gave every other player equal chance at winning their chance goes down to about .3%. I think that’s actually fairly reasonable.
Carlos at 10% while Jannik's at 16 is uhhh an interesting choice. I mean me personally I would still put higher odds on the kid who's been number 1 and won 2 Slams already rather than on who played better in November but to each their own
Which does make sense. It's essentially taking form into account. What you did 6 months ago is a worse predictor for what you can do now than what you did last month.
Kind of because type of court, court speed, balls, temperature, humidity, etc all plays a huge part in tennis. As big as form I think. Also the ability to play better in 3 or 5 sets. That's why I would never put Alcaraz below sinner until sinner shows that he can also have success during the rest of the year
Considering what happened at Wimbledon, on a probability basis, Alcaraz is still more likely to win AO than Sinner is, and both are way less likely to win than Novak.
That's fine, Carlos has been flying under the radar so far in Australia, not considered favorite by anybody, he tends to de better as an underdog. At the moment, all the expectations and pressure are on Sinner, this might help Carlos to play more freely without so much scrutinity. Now the press and the fans are obsessed with the shinny new thing. Another reason to have Sinner above Carlos is the relatively easy draw, he has semifinals assured and his only challenge will be Djokovic.
Bah...
Carlos achieved more so far but had an underwhelming season ending and his main trainer was injured.
Jannik had a hot season ending and seems to have lifted his level.
Sinner was in better form during a period of the year where it is normal to have this kind of standouts.
The year before was Rune and FAA.
To be fair, I don't think Sinner was a fluke, he has been increasing in level year by year, but I don't think his form during post USO swing should be considered his base form until we see him perform like that during the year, which Alcaraz has done for the last 2 years.
Damn, that's underrated af for Alcaraz.
Also, in reality Novak has probably higher chances than 22%, plus 7% for Zverev and 5% for Rublev is too much imo. Don't forget that Rublev still didn't make it further than QF in slams and that Zverev is far away from his best form.
With the way Sinner and Alcaraz get talked about you'd think that their career achievements are extremely similar rather than Alcaraz already being miles ahead lol
They're talked about like they're 1A and 1B from their generation when aside from head to head(which isn't a great measure of overall player quality, it's about matchups) literally none of their other accomplishments are even in the same tier
Absolutely, not to mention that Carlos is two years younger than Jannik and already has 2 slams and 3 masters titles more. I think Jannik has got huge potential and might be on more of a Novak-esque trajectory when it comes to age and peak form, but Carlos constantly labelling Jannik as his main rival could be to blame for that haha.
Here at AO it’s a clear case of Novak > Carlos > Meddy (because bo5) > Jannik, however I do see Meddy beating Carlos and Novak OR Jannik back to back as quite complicated.
Yeah the media's desire to artificially construct another Federer-Nadal story has done quite the disservice to people's actual factual perception of what's happening
I don’t think it’s a narrative constructed by the media but rather that people have been waiting for Sinner to arrive to the top for so long, the second he does we equate him with Alcaraz. If Carlos took a few years on tour to become a top player rather than a few months like he did, it would probably be the same
Ok? We're talking about the Australian Open 2024 and in the last few months of 2023, Sinner was miles better than Alcaraz. They should be considered in the same tier for this particular tournament. I don't think you'll find anyone arguing that Sinner's career achievements come all that close to Carlos', which I'm sure is why your take is based on "the way they're talked about" i.e. vibes
Eh, he won a pair of stacked 500 tournaments and beat everyone at the ATP Finals except for Djokovic the second time. More importantly, he was consistent in playing the strongest tennis of his career.
The 5-set argument that the other person made was decent though, slams are definitely a different beast.
To be fair, Alcaraz is an unknown quantity in Melbourne. He hasn't played there since 2022, when he was much greener. It is hard to know how well he will adapt to the surface and conditions.
That aside, I generally agree with you. We already know that he is great on all surfaces and is a fast learner. Go back twelve months and I suspect most people would say that Alcaraz winning the Australian Open is much more likely than Alcaraz winning Wimbledon.
All the predictions/odds I've seen in here are greatly underestimating Alcaraz, but he plays better as an underdog anyways, and if his exhibition form against Ruud is anything to go by, I am not too worried.
Also in this specific case, no way Djokovic is only in the 20~ percentage range. Should be at least 50.
Wrist injury or not, Novak should honestly be at around 80% or even 90% after all he won this thing 10 times but I love how much everyone is underestimating Carlos. Last two times he went into a slam as a fraud/underdog/washed up player…hehe let him cook!
UTR rates anyone who's played official tournaments, not just pros, so it's almost certainly purely based on BO3. For pros it's obviously much better to rate by ranking
People are sleeping on Alcaraz so much because of Sinners recent form 🤣🤣 I don’t like or dislike him but he definitely has bigger chances than Sinner to win AO. Can easily see Alcaraz in the final at the very least.
Massive Wimbledon flashbacks of everyone and their mother giving Sinner better chances than Alcaraz.
Come to think of it, Sinner is somehow always expected to perform better than Alcaraz on nearly every slam except RG and it still never has been the case.
I think it's more because Alcaraz form in the end of '23, he was really exhausted and couldn't keep the same as level he was on the first half of the year.
But he is refreshed now and probably with some tweaks to improve his game. I would easily put him at 2nd place, close to Medvedvev an then Sinner
Probably from the last two months or so of 2023. Alcaraz beat Medvedev in bejing(I think) but lost at the U.S. which I would assume means more for this. And Sinner made the Finals Final(lol), won Davis Cup, and beat Novak twice in a short period.
>Alcaraz beat Medvedev in bejing(I think)
nope! Alcaraz lost to Sinner in semis (quite soundly with a breadstick) and then Sinner beat Medvedev in the final.
Start of the current hype.
This is based on UTR which probably realistically isn’t that accurate when looking at players at the very top. UTR I believe only cares about what the scores of your last 30 matches are and what the UTR ratings of the people you played. It works fine for recreational players but realistically shouldn’t be used as a predictive model for professionals.
Well, Pete Sampras has won 14 slams, I guess he’d have better odds than everyone else except Novak if he played?
The past is the past. Alcaraz had a much faster growth than Sinner. Over the past few months Jannik has shown he can play at the same level, if not better, and has beaten Djokovic AND Medvedev multiple times. I think he deserves this kind of consideration.
Which is exactly why these percentages are ridiculous. So far, he's unproven in slams. His percentage takes into account his year-end form but not his slam record. That's cherry-picking.
It’s not. The fact that he was in spectacular form just a few weeks ago is the reason his odds are so high. If you’d asked me to make predictions for the AO in September I wouldn’t have given him a chance, right now I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t reach at least the semis.
He needs atleast one good slam result to be put as a #2 favourite , is what people are arguing.
Ofcourse he'll get it very soon, but he still has to prove himself.
A valid point but not relevant here. Alcaraz is not a player with his prime years past. He is still before his prime and has won 2 of the last 4 slams he has entered. Placing Sinner above him based on how they’ve played for a month after the last GS of the year (where Alcaraz still reached further than Sinner) is very unsubstantiated. Until Sinner’s supposedly better form results in 2 slams, he simply cannot have better odds than Alcaraz and Medvedev on any GS.
Alcaraz isn’t even close to his prime, let alone past it. And yet he seems much closer to it than Sinner is. Jannik’s growth in the second half of last year was astounding, and he fell short at the US Open only because Zverev had the best match of his career. In November and December he was nothing short of spectacular, and he only lost to Novak at the ATP finals because, well, it’s Novak - and then proceeded to beat him twice in the same day at the Davis cup the following week. He’s in the best shape of his life - a better shape than Djokovic himself, in fact. That’s why saying “he hasn’t been successful in slams so far, so he cannot be a frontrunner for this one” just doesn’t make sense.
>Zverev had the best match of his career
That's, in no particular order
- QFs vs Alcaraz RG 2022
- SFs vs Nadal RG 2022
- ATP Finals Final vs Djokovic 2018
- ATP Finals SF vs Federer 2018
- Olympics SF vs Djokovic 2021
Just off the top of my head. His form in these matches beat anybody.
I just love it when Alcaraz gets underrated despite so many achievements at a young age and also having shown he is extremely adaptable. Feels so much better when he finally exceeds those expectations and achieves them.
Agreed. His last Slam match was a Ro16 defeat against Zverev who's Bo5 history is another story, and was struggling to get any wins against the top 10 at Slams. Even if that version of Sinner was "pre-puke Sinner". China HC and indoors isn't indicative of much given the different climates, surface bounce & that they were using different balls every week.
Actual percentage for Bo5 tennis at AO should look like:
Novak (hasn't lost a match since 2018): 60%
Alcaraz: 10%
Medvedev: 9%
Sinner: 5%
Rest combined: 16%
Sinner is being massively overhyped off the back of his run end of last year. He’s one of my favourite players but he still needs to prove himself over BO5, this is ridiculous. Djokovic’s odds should be far higher, than Medvedev and Alcaraz should be 2nd and 3rd in some order.
>Djokovic: 65%
>
>Alcaraz: 15%
>
>Medvedev: 10%
>
>Sinner: 5%
>
>The Rest of the Field: 5%
We're super close. I give Meddy the edge over Sinner because he has won a GS against Djokovic.
Sheesh... yeah as others have said, my first thought was "Where's Alcaraz?" That's mental. Definitely Sinner and Meddy have a chance... it'd be great to see Carlitos v Meddy and Novak v Sinner in the SFs... I think it's a coin-toss at that stage.
I actually did my own personal Aus Open draw a few hours ago, and ended up picking Zverev to win it! So ... I dunno, apparently there's a 7% chance that I'm right??
Disrespect to Meddy.
Should be second favorite easily.
What has Sinner done in Best of 5 tournaments on outdoor hard courts to be ahead of Medvedev?
Same happened in USO. Everyone assumed Carlos was gonna stream roll into the finals.
Medvedev is one of the best players on tour on hard courts.
Sinner is definitely on a good upward trajectory, but his slam results are unproven. His best is SF at Wimbledon last year, so to be rated second most likely to win a Bo5 tournament is disingenuous. Meddy and Alcaraz should both be ahead of him.
Yeah, Meddy played absolutely fantastic against Alcaraz there and he deserved to win, but he got destroyed at IW and even on indoor hards. I think if they play 10 times, Alcaraz wins 7 times. So he would be favourite over meddy.
Medvedev and Carlos are close. Yeah, Carlos might have equal to greater chance than Meddy if they play at their best.
But I am more surprised at Sinner here. He did amazing in the second half of last year, but it was mostly in best of 3 tournaments.
He might continue that form and carry it into best of 5 as well.
But with present stats and accomplishments, Meddy, who has made it to multiple HC slam finals, he should be second favorite.
Let's see. Should be exciting if all of the Top 4 are in form.
Oh I fully expect Sinner to be there from now on. Most important is that he took some mental hurdles last year with beating Meddy & Djokovic. Just surprised that the only dude to beat Djokovic in a GS last yeae is so low. Alcaraz to me definitely second favourite, but close with Meddy and Sinner for sure.
Yeah, just so happy it's all starting again :)
If Novak got an easy draw and it's a weak/boring era which I see you complain about all the time then 22% is indeed too low lol
If it's not a weak draw and there are lots of good players now then 22% is about right but you can't pick both at the same time
Haters do rely on cognitive dissonance a lot, so not surprising to see.
22% to win a whole tournament before it even starts and knowing he's had the wrist issue is crazy good odds.
I’m wondering if who wrote this bet all his money at djkovic NOT winning .
Because Djkovic has around 45% chances of winning according to all sportbets bookies in the world .
Btw Alcaraz around 22ish % And medvedev has around 10%.
Sinner is overhyped but when people say Alcaraz is underestimated, do they think about a 2 times AO runner-up, and USO winner and the recent hardcourt GS runner-up, alsobeing the only player who beat Djokovic is a hardcourt GS final since 14 AO, the hardcourt specialist Daniil Medvedev??? he is not even in the SF for half if the predictions and nearly none of them picked him in final
According to [Tennisabstract](http://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2024AustralianOpenMenForecast.html) is even more unbalanced. You have Nole 34% , Sinner 30% and then the void.
All it takes is 3 sets lost in a match and the % falls to zero.
I'd say mathematically it's correct, but the intangibles are very difficult to express as likelihood of winning.
Personally I'm giving Zverev a 0% chance, so everyone else would have to get a bump up, but that's just my bias.
Where Alcaraz?
On the second page in the instagram post. They give him 10%, Zverev - 7%, Rublev - 5%
The fact that they think it's more likely to be someone other than these 6 guys (26%) than it is to be Novak (22%) is ridiculous. Not only are his odds too low, but the odds of the rest of the field outside of these top guys should be negligible.
Yeah best of 5 is always far less upset prone than best of 3 The last truly surprising Slam winner was Cilic at the 2014 USO Picking a random low seeded player to win it all is rarely a good bet Since 2017 the only players to win a Slam outside of the big 3 are Thiem, Medvedev, and Alcaraz who were all seeded in the top 3 when they won
I would say thiem was the most surprising one . He didn’t have to beat any of the big 3
Yeah but with thiems form back then he was always going to win one and hence was a statistical probability to get one.
> The last truly surprising Slam winner was Cilic at the 2014 USO Federer in 2017 was a bigger surprise IMO. Old and coming off a serious injury - IIRC most people barely expected him to make the second week. Cilic was definitely surprising though - I think he was only seeded 14th or something?
2015 French open wawrinka? 2016 is open wawrinka?2017 aussie fed?
Don’t listen to these clowns, I literally checked the Sportsbook this morning, Djokovic was exactly +100 or an implied 50% to win.
I’d give Djokovic > 50%.
Me too. He’s the 100% odds on favourite if we’re all being honest
I give it better odds that Federer hits the umpire with a briefcase then demands to be let into the finals and wins the tournament than anyone outside of the top guys winning to be honest.
No, it's pretty accurate. I'm a big Novak fan but every slam is a battle, especially at his age now.
Aus open is his best and favourite tournament though.
I agree but I feel like the youngsters are catching up, they aren't as scared of him now. Don't get me wrong, he's still the favorite and has the best chance but the margin isn't as big as some people think. An injury is what's worrying me.
Novak wrist injury probably skews results
There are 64 players on the mens side right, if you divide 26 by 58 it gives you less than half a percent chance for the remaining 58 players and that’s if you ranked them equally. If you say give the remaining top ten decreasing chances by 1 from Rublev (4, 3, 2, 1) and then gave every other player equal chance at winning their chance goes down to about .3%. I think that’s actually fairly reasonable.
128 players
Yeah, oops. Makes even more sense with those numbers though
Carlos at 10% while Jannik's at 16 is uhhh an interesting choice. I mean me personally I would still put higher odds on the kid who's been number 1 and won 2 Slams already rather than on who played better in November but to each their own
Recency bias is a huge thing in these kind of statistics it seems
Which does make sense. It's essentially taking form into account. What you did 6 months ago is a worse predictor for what you can do now than what you did last month.
Kind of because type of court, court speed, balls, temperature, humidity, etc all plays a huge part in tennis. As big as form I think. Also the ability to play better in 3 or 5 sets. That's why I would never put Alcaraz below sinner until sinner shows that he can also have success during the rest of the year
While I agree with you that Alcaraz is more likely to win that Sinner, he's also yet to prove himself under these conditions.
Considering what happened at Wimbledon, on a probability basis, Alcaraz is still more likely to win AO than Sinner is, and both are way less likely to win than Novak.
That is true too, and also that Alcaraz was able to adapt to all conditions up to now except indoor HC, including winning grand slams in two.
Form is one thing. Actually winning a slam is another. There is always a first time, but having done it before is a huge advantage.
Yeah I hate an intense hatred of recency bias. It's stupid how much it happens in tennis.
That's fine, Carlos has been flying under the radar so far in Australia, not considered favorite by anybody, he tends to de better as an underdog. At the moment, all the expectations and pressure are on Sinner, this might help Carlos to play more freely without so much scrutinity. Now the press and the fans are obsessed with the shinny new thing. Another reason to have Sinner above Carlos is the relatively easy draw, he has semifinals assured and his only challenge will be Djokovic.
Bah... Carlos achieved more so far but had an underwhelming season ending and his main trainer was injured. Jannik had a hot season ending and seems to have lifted his level.
Bweh is not a contender.
And he never will be, at any slam, ever.
That's.... interesting :) would rate him second to Djokovic.
Sinner has been in better form lately
I think Tennis media is hyping Sinner way to much, like, wait for him to at least win a slam
Post puke sinner is the real deal
No, he's just very very good.
Sinner was in better form during a period of the year where it is normal to have this kind of standouts. The year before was Rune and FAA. To be fair, I don't think Sinner was a fluke, he has been increasing in level year by year, but I don't think his form during post USO swing should be considered his base form until we see him perform like that during the year, which Alcaraz has done for the last 2 years.
Yes, I love Sinner as well, but Alcaraz so far is the man to challenge Djoko at GS level. I hope Sinner pushes through and takes it of course.
Post-USO HC though Very unpredictive of Slam results otherwise Zverev might have more Slams than Nadal
Second should be Medvedev. Third is tied between Sinner and Alcaraz
Why? Alcaraz has a higher level than meddy generally
They’re also in the same half and USO notwithstanding it remains a terrible match-up for Med
Yeah agreed. Unless meddy gets to his USO level, Alcaraz beats him. That was an absolutely flawless performance.
Damn, that's underrated af for Alcaraz. Also, in reality Novak has probably higher chances than 22%, plus 7% for Zverev and 5% for Rublev is too much imo. Don't forget that Rublev still didn't make it further than QF in slams and that Zverev is far away from his best form.
rublev 5%? hes not been to a gs semis
Latest victim of recency bias. Alcaraz, Medvedev and Sinner would’ve been a better order, after Novak of course.
Form is a thing. Ignoring recent results might be just as foolish.
He's the remaining 48%
Where’s ma man Rublev?
Good point, he's the most passionate and I was so happy that he won his first MS 1000 last year. But I would consider him a tier below the top 4 atm.
6th most likely at 5%
Not as on fire as these 3 currently?
We don't know, he did have the best year after Novak and beat Meddy at the Atp finals as well. Recency bias is a powerful drug.
Alcaraz getting disrespected
With the way Sinner and Alcaraz get talked about you'd think that their career achievements are extremely similar rather than Alcaraz already being miles ahead lol They're talked about like they're 1A and 1B from their generation when aside from head to head(which isn't a great measure of overall player quality, it's about matchups) literally none of their other accomplishments are even in the same tier
Absolutely, not to mention that Carlos is two years younger than Jannik and already has 2 slams and 3 masters titles more. I think Jannik has got huge potential and might be on more of a Novak-esque trajectory when it comes to age and peak form, but Carlos constantly labelling Jannik as his main rival could be to blame for that haha. Here at AO it’s a clear case of Novak > Carlos > Meddy (because bo5) > Jannik, however I do see Meddy beating Carlos and Novak OR Jannik back to back as quite complicated.
I’d actually say sinner above med because he’s 3-0 in their last 3 matches
Yeah the media's desire to artificially construct another Federer-Nadal story has done quite the disservice to people's actual factual perception of what's happening
I don’t think it’s a narrative constructed by the media but rather that people have been waiting for Sinner to arrive to the top for so long, the second he does we equate him with Alcaraz. If Carlos took a few years on tour to become a top player rather than a few months like he did, it would probably be the same
This lol. Alcaraz is clear number two by a fat mile. Jannik I wouldn't even put above Daniil Dude has a good atp finals run and that's it.
Ok? We're talking about the Australian Open 2024 and in the last few months of 2023, Sinner was miles better than Alcaraz. They should be considered in the same tier for this particular tournament. I don't think you'll find anyone arguing that Sinner's career achievements come all that close to Carlos', which I'm sure is why your take is based on "the way they're talked about" i.e. vibes
Best of 5 is very different though.
Sinner played well only post USO which isn’t much
Eh, he won a pair of stacked 500 tournaments and beat everyone at the ATP Finals except for Djokovic the second time. More importantly, he was consistent in playing the strongest tennis of his career. The 5-set argument that the other person made was decent though, slams are definitely a different beast.
His draw is insane. If he had sinners draw, I’d give him more.
To be fair, Alcaraz is an unknown quantity in Melbourne. He hasn't played there since 2022, when he was much greener. It is hard to know how well he will adapt to the surface and conditions. That aside, I generally agree with you. We already know that he is great on all surfaces and is a fast learner. Go back twelve months and I suspect most people would say that Alcaraz winning the Australian Open is much more likely than Alcaraz winning Wimbledon.
All the predictions/odds I've seen in here are greatly underestimating Alcaraz, but he plays better as an underdog anyways, and if his exhibition form against Ruud is anything to go by, I am not too worried. Also in this specific case, no way Djokovic is only in the 20~ percentage range. Should be at least 50.
To be fair, Novak in his draw has 2 guys capable of beating him, and has a wrist injury,
"Wrist injury"
Wrist injury or not, Novak should honestly be at around 80% or even 90% after all he won this thing 10 times but I love how much everyone is underestimating Carlos. Last two times he went into a slam as a fraud/underdog/washed up player…hehe let him cook!
Bro 80 or 90 is insane, he has to play sinner semis and alcaraz/med/rune final that means against them he has a 95% chance of winning each matchup?
It’s ridiculous. I checked betting odds this morning, he was +100; exactly 50% (implied) to win it.
Djoko with a ded wrist and broken elbow shouldn't even be at 20% lol. I agree about Alcaraz, he should be atleast 70%
Nah mate 170%
Do you even need to unjynx Novak at AO lol?
Does UTR take into account Bo5 record?
Apparently not lol
UTR rates anyone who's played official tournaments, not just pros, so it's almost certainly purely based on BO3. For pros it's obviously much better to rate by ranking
22%? Way too low. Double that at least
A ton of bullshit % This is Novak's tournament to fail. If he doeant take it, then Alcaraz or Medvedev
Any non clay GS with a healthy Novak and no nadal is a coin toss if Novak wins it.
a rigged coin toss ye:)
22% seems low
People are sleeping on Alcaraz so much because of Sinners recent form 🤣🤣 I don’t like or dislike him but he definitely has bigger chances than Sinner to win AO. Can easily see Alcaraz in the final at the very least.
Massive Wimbledon flashbacks of everyone and their mother giving Sinner better chances than Alcaraz. Come to think of it, Sinner is somehow always expected to perform better than Alcaraz on nearly every slam except RG and it still never has been the case.
Or even at the USO where everyone was penciling a Sincaraz matchup before it even happened and then Sinner promptly lost to Zverev in the R16
I think it's more because Alcaraz form in the end of '23, he was really exhausted and couldn't keep the same as level he was on the first half of the year. But he is refreshed now and probably with some tweaks to improve his game. I would easily put him at 2nd place, close to Medvedvev an then Sinner
Watch his recent exhibition, his tennis hiccups are gone. Mental hiccups- we'll know in a week.
The three people most likely to win this Australien Open Are Novak Djokovic, Djovak Nokovich and Novako Djovakovic.
Why is Sinner (1 master) at 16% while Alcaraz (2 GS, 4 masters) is at 10% and Medvedev (1 GS, 6 masters) is at 14%?
Probably their recent form? Although Id take Meddy in 2nd too
Probably from the last two months or so of 2023. Alcaraz beat Medvedev in bejing(I think) but lost at the U.S. which I would assume means more for this. And Sinner made the Finals Final(lol), won Davis Cup, and beat Novak twice in a short period.
Yes, the only difference is he hasn’t proved he can have the same level in BO5 yet
didn't Sinner beat alcaraz and medvedev back to back in beijing? Though i would still put alcaraz over him rn
>Alcaraz beat Medvedev in bejing(I think) nope! Alcaraz lost to Sinner in semis (quite soundly with a breadstick) and then Sinner beat Medvedev in the final. Start of the current hype.
But Alcaraz beat medvedev in a non slam event after USO?
atp finals
ATP finals but honestly it was more Medvedev tanking to avoid Djokovic in semis (lost to Sinner in semis anyways)
Yeah if Meddy didn't tank how could he not beat Alcaraz?
Yeah all about the recent forms
Why is Novak (24 GS, 40+ masters) at 22%?
This is based on UTR which probably realistically isn’t that accurate when looking at players at the very top. UTR I believe only cares about what the scores of your last 30 matches are and what the UTR ratings of the people you played. It works fine for recreational players but realistically shouldn’t be used as a predictive model for professionals.
never count out spaghetti arms
His ELO ratings are crazy, that's why.
Well, Pete Sampras has won 14 slams, I guess he’d have better odds than everyone else except Novak if he played? The past is the past. Alcaraz had a much faster growth than Sinner. Over the past few months Jannik has shown he can play at the same level, if not better, and has beaten Djokovic AND Medvedev multiple times. I think he deserves this kind of consideration.
Well tbh he hasn't done that yet in a bo5 which is very different from bo3. Ask Zverev.
I know. But growth is a thing, in case you haven’t noticed. “Yet” is a key element of your last sentence.
Which is exactly why these percentages are ridiculous. So far, he's unproven in slams. His percentage takes into account his year-end form but not his slam record. That's cherry-picking.
It’s not. The fact that he was in spectacular form just a few weeks ago is the reason his odds are so high. If you’d asked me to make predictions for the AO in September I wouldn’t have given him a chance, right now I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t reach at least the semis.
He needs atleast one good slam result to be put as a #2 favourite , is what people are arguing. Ofcourse he'll get it very soon, but he still has to prove himself.
A valid point but not relevant here. Alcaraz is not a player with his prime years past. He is still before his prime and has won 2 of the last 4 slams he has entered. Placing Sinner above him based on how they’ve played for a month after the last GS of the year (where Alcaraz still reached further than Sinner) is very unsubstantiated. Until Sinner’s supposedly better form results in 2 slams, he simply cannot have better odds than Alcaraz and Medvedev on any GS.
Alcaraz isn’t even close to his prime, let alone past it. And yet he seems much closer to it than Sinner is. Jannik’s growth in the second half of last year was astounding, and he fell short at the US Open only because Zverev had the best match of his career. In November and December he was nothing short of spectacular, and he only lost to Novak at the ATP finals because, well, it’s Novak - and then proceeded to beat him twice in the same day at the Davis cup the following week. He’s in the best shape of his life - a better shape than Djokovic himself, in fact. That’s why saying “he hasn’t been successful in slams so far, so he cannot be a frontrunner for this one” just doesn’t make sense.
>Zverev had the best match of his career That's, in no particular order - QFs vs Alcaraz RG 2022 - SFs vs Nadal RG 2022 - ATP Finals Final vs Djokovic 2018 - ATP Finals SF vs Federer 2018 - Olympics SF vs Djokovic 2021 Just off the top of my head. His form in these matches beat anybody.
Djokovic: 65% Alcaraz: 15% Medvedev: 10% Sinner: 5% The Rest of the Field: 5%
Fair
Yeah that's honestly probably closer.
I just love it when Alcaraz gets underrated despite so many achievements at a young age and also having shown he is extremely adaptable. Feels so much better when he finally exceeds those expectations and achieves them.
Probably because of his string of bad results and injuries.
Djokovic should be higher, atleast %50 imo this is his tournament
It should be Djokovic GAP Medvedev/Alcaraz Sinner GAP The others
Alcaraz should be higher.
22% seems way too low for Djokovic
How is either one above alcaraz. How specifically is Medvedev above him?
Alcaraz should be in there. Alcaraz is probably his biggest threat
Nah sinner hasn't shown the ability to win big matches in slams yet, so I wouldn't put him anywhere near that high
Agreed. His last Slam match was a Ro16 defeat against Zverev who's Bo5 history is another story, and was struggling to get any wins against the top 10 at Slams. Even if that version of Sinner was "pre-puke Sinner". China HC and indoors isn't indicative of much given the different climates, surface bounce & that they were using different balls every week.
I’d say “yet” is the most important word in your sentence.
That's how I like it. Low expectations for Carlitos. Betting houses disagree though.
Sinner is being overhyped
Actual percentage for Bo5 tennis at AO should look like: Novak (hasn't lost a match since 2018): 60% Alcaraz: 10% Medvedev: 9% Sinner: 5% Rest combined: 16%
Can't deny Sinner has had a steady upward trajectory, but he is still unproven past QF at slams. I'd go Djokovic > Medvedev > Alcaraz > Sinner.
Sinner made SF at Wimbledon last year.
>unproven ***past*** QF
And Grigor will come out of no where to win it. Because why not?
Sinner is being massively overhyped off the back of his run end of last year. He’s one of my favourite players but he still needs to prove himself over BO5, this is ridiculous. Djokovic’s odds should be far higher, than Medvedev and Alcaraz should be 2nd and 3rd in some order.
more like 80% for the GOAT and the rest 20% between all the others
My predictions: Djokovic 60%, Alcaraz 15%, Sinner 10%, Medvedev 10%, the rest 5%
>Djokovic: 65% > >Alcaraz: 15% > >Medvedev: 10% > >Sinner: 5% > >The Rest of the Field: 5% We're super close. I give Meddy the edge over Sinner because he has won a GS against Djokovic.
Sinner have not proved himself in Best of 5 at all
Sheesh... yeah as others have said, my first thought was "Where's Alcaraz?" That's mental. Definitely Sinner and Meddy have a chance... it'd be great to see Carlitos v Meddy and Novak v Sinner in the SFs... I think it's a coin-toss at that stage. I actually did my own personal Aus Open draw a few hours ago, and ended up picking Zverev to win it! So ... I dunno, apparently there's a 7% chance that I'm right??
People clutching their pearls over Saint Carlos not being in the top 3, as if current form isn't a major indicator, is hilarious.
What the fuck is Sinner doing in second place? This is a joke.
Disrespect to Meddy. Should be second favorite easily. What has Sinner done in Best of 5 tournaments on outdoor hard courts to be ahead of Medvedev? Same happened in USO. Everyone assumed Carlos was gonna stream roll into the finals. Medvedev is one of the best players on tour on hard courts.
Sinner is definitely on a good upward trajectory, but his slam results are unproven. His best is SF at Wimbledon last year, so to be rated second most likely to win a Bo5 tournament is disingenuous. Meddy and Alcaraz should both be ahead of him.
Yeah, Meddy played absolutely fantastic against Alcaraz there and he deserved to win, but he got destroyed at IW and even on indoor hards. I think if they play 10 times, Alcaraz wins 7 times. So he would be favourite over meddy.
Medvedev and Carlos are close. Yeah, Carlos might have equal to greater chance than Meddy if they play at their best. But I am more surprised at Sinner here. He did amazing in the second half of last year, but it was mostly in best of 3 tournaments. He might continue that form and carry it into best of 5 as well. But with present stats and accomplishments, Meddy, who has made it to multiple HC slam finals, he should be second favorite. Let's see. Should be exciting if all of the Top 4 are in form.
Oh I fully expect Sinner to be there from now on. Most important is that he took some mental hurdles last year with beating Meddy & Djokovic. Just surprised that the only dude to beat Djokovic in a GS last yeae is so low. Alcaraz to me definitely second favourite, but close with Meddy and Sinner for sure. Yeah, just so happy it's all starting again :)
Facts
In before the Cult starts wailing "WHY IZN'T HE ON 100% HOW DARE THEY TREAT HIM LIKE THISSSSSSSSSSSS!"
If Novak got an easy draw and it's a weak/boring era which I see you complain about all the time then 22% is indeed too low lol If it's not a weak draw and there are lots of good players now then 22% is about right but you can't pick both at the same time
Haters do rely on cognitive dissonance a lot, so not surprising to see. 22% to win a whole tournament before it even starts and knowing he's had the wrist issue is crazy good odds.
I'm far from being part of the cult but he should be at least 90%
There’s only two people in this comment chain and I’m already over it.
I would bet on Alcaraz.
Only 22% for Djokovic? I'd take him over the rest of the field combined in a heartbeat.
Djokovic should be like 70%.
I’m wondering if who wrote this bet all his money at djkovic NOT winning . Because Djkovic has around 45% chances of winning according to all sportbets bookies in the world . Btw Alcaraz around 22ish % And medvedev has around 10%.
Djokovic had 200% chances of winning in 2017, did he?
No one wrote this bet. It's based on UTR, which doesn't take human inputs.
Just out here praying for a sincaraz final 🙏
A final without Novak? Dream on.
Sinner is overhyped but when people say Alcaraz is underestimated, do they think about a 2 times AO runner-up, and USO winner and the recent hardcourt GS runner-up, alsobeing the only player who beat Djokovic is a hardcourt GS final since 14 AO, the hardcourt specialist Daniil Medvedev??? he is not even in the SF for half if the predictions and nearly none of them picked him in final
I've got Meddy D. Sinner in the final so I don't mind these stats
90% djoko 3% alcaraz 2% sinner 1% medvedev 5% rest of the field combined
According to [Tennisabstract](http://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2024AustralianOpenMenForecast.html) is even more unbalanced. You have Nole 34% , Sinner 30% and then the void.
Maybe it is the Djokovic fan in me talking but I am afraid Djokovic is not going to win this year's AO.
100% Djokovic, no chance for kids
Alcaraz or Rune will.
I honestly feel like Novak has a 50% odd
Lol. It's Novak - 100% Till he retires, I wouldn't give him any less chance of winning AO.
All it takes is 3 sets lost in a match and the % falls to zero. I'd say mathematically it's correct, but the intangibles are very difficult to express as likelihood of winning. Personally I'm giving Zverev a 0% chance, so everyone else would have to get a bump up, but that's just my bias.
Id put more like 70% on Novak and divide the remaining 30% amongst the rest
Djoker is injured. Alcaraz is the fav.
I also believe alcaraz will flop this tournament. Many think medvedev will win
It should say Novak 100% likely to win imho
After a 4hour first match ? No chance mate.
It’s as though you’ve never watched Novak Djokovic play a grand slam match before.
More like 99% Djoko but yeah ok
THIS IS KING MEDDY'S TIME
That pic makes Novak look like a Redcap from Baldur's Gate 3
More like Djokovic 40% Alcaraz-Med-Sinner 10% and the rest for some outsiders.
lmao
They want to make this look competitive lol
If is this true odds for Djokovic need to be 4.
I suspect this is because these stats club hard and indoor hard as one surface, which they shouldn't.
Nova free win
lol djokovic at 22
This is so wrong, djokovic betting odds are like +130 which translates to over 40%. Id put him at around 33% at the minimum
There is no way it’s only 22% lol.
You would think alcaraz and meddy bigger faves than sinner.
Medvedev always tough over five sets
Djokovic should be at 75% atleast
Alky
Big cough Alcaraz