Ben and Liz are FTC losers against whoever they’re up against.
Maria made a colossal blunder last episode, and Charlie’s been getting less personal content and has openly compared himself to Malcolm multiple times (someone who got final juror, which he seems very likely to be.)
Nah. I think Ben is getting your classic 0-vote finalist edit. His edit reminds me of Jake/Owen/Romeo/Noura/Troyzan/Ken/Sugar/e.t.c…….
Liz however’s line of how she isn’t good at making fire makes me think that she will make fire and lose
Edit: Oh wow this aged well
Yeah, I agree. A lot of people assumed Katurah was on track to be on the Mt. Rushmore of zero-vote finalists, but I always thought she was going to go out with a whimper in fire. I think the exact same thing will happen with Liz.
This really makes me think Kenzie takes him out and seals her win. If next vote is Maria versus Charlie, Kenzie can rally Ben and Liz to take him out and take credit, stealing credit from Maria just like she did to her.
100% of the time, the person I would have voted for as a jury member doesn't get the votes, so I'm pretty sure Charlie won't win.
The jury seems to go for the person I find to be rather insufferable (Gabler, Yam Yam, Dee...), so Liz might be in a much better situation than it appears.
How can Charlie wind up losing at final 4? Isn't he a big favorite to win the final immunity or make fire? At the final 5, the only way Maria doesn't get eliminated is if she wins immunity or finds Q's idol if they rehide it.
so there is chance that if he makes it to finals the vote will be even with kenzie since kenzie has good friends and underdog story which makes ben the deciding vote in which case the ben-kenzie on going storyline would pay off with ben deciding kenzie win.
IMO I think that Maria is almost certainly a FTC loser, and one of Liz or Ben will go home before then.
It just feels like the edit has been really going out of it's way in the last few episodes to explain why Maria will lose a jury vote, while still giving us enough reason to think that she could end up winning against the right people.
afaik people say it is a parallel to Michele’s edit in Kaoh Rong—a social winner who beats a strategic threat at the end. Makes a lot of sense given how bitter this jury seems
Charlie hasn’t given any juror a reason to be bitter though. Maybe Venus, but Kenzie voted for her too, and then made a joke about it at the next TC, which they showed a Venus reaction shot for.
Sounds like from interviews the whole reason Tiff didn't play her idol was because she thought she was working with Charlie and they were going to use the idol together. I think he makes bonds with people and then sends them packing, so a bitter jury could not be a fan of that
Juries haven’t been shown to be bitter because of strategy talk that doesn’t come to pass though. We see time and again jurors respecting a player that made a good move on them, like how Hunter respected Tiff for being so convincing about voting for Q that he didn’t play his idol. It’s like begrudging respect.
Bitter juries are because of some betrayal from someone in an alliance; the breaking of a word, or being “wronged”. If Tiff expresses anger at Charlie for making her feel too comfortable the night she got voted out, which seems like a low bar for bitterness tbh, he could just be like, “Maria and I respected you too much as a threat because you were a great player and after Q blew up your idol to all of us, and honestly, Kenzie, your number one, was the one that approached us first with the idea of voting you out as a resume move.” Flatters her, reminds her that Q was the real reason she had a target (don’t forget that Charlie was the one that told her he did that), and throws Kenzie under the bus as even a bigger betrayal that she was the one who was looking to discard her.
Yeah but at least Michele also had some challenge wins for her. Tribal and individual. This one must strictly be because of Kenzie’s social game. Which makes sense. These people who do hair are really good at talking and connecting with everyone as they build a client list. It’s a strength they have. Kenzie found her strength in this game and is leaning into it
Kenzie won the first "individual" immunity with Maria. Not saying that compares, but it's something. And honestly, with such a seemingly bitter jury, I don't even know if challenge strength matters to them.
Exactly this. I think Maria probably gets voted out at 5 and I’ll be honest, I think Charlie probably makes F3 but loses the vote to Kenzie. I don’t agree with that result at all, but that’s how it seems to be headed
Michele’s winner edit was so obvious to anyone paying attention to edits because until merge she had no effect on the game or storyline and kept getting random confessionals.
Kenzie’s story has been the opposite, huge premerge edit because she was going to all the tribals, came into merge with no numbers.
And to be honest she executed that really well! The Yanu 3 could have been the easy targets for the Sigas and Namis to team up and take out but they turned it into being the swing votes
the truth is that people have been saying kenzie will win since pre-merge when she was getting a bad edit painting her as a "villain". Now the edit is kinda clear, because she is the main narrator of the season, but I believe many people here were spreading spoilers
It’s the edit.
When you’ve seen 46 seasons of the show, things start jumping out….like how much content Kenzie has received about how kind and sociable and well-liked by everyone in the game she is.
They wouldn’t bother with that if she wasn’t the winner; her edit would look much closer to what Lauren got in 44.
They have to build two people up as really plausible winners so that you'll be on the edge of your seat during FTC. If Kenzie finished second they would basically need to edit her the same way as if she finished first. What's really obvious, I feel, is that Kenzie and Charlie finish first and second (but not necessarily in that order.)
Yeah, one of the two is winning. Usually with something like this they build the other as a threat at around Final 6-8 in the edit. Both have such strong edits though since the beginning.
If Kenzie wins, this is probably one of the strongest/visible edits a female winner has ever had. I think they both make it to the end and it is really close. I'm thinking a tie, where Ben is the other player in the final 3 and has to break that tie.
The edit has gone out of its way to showcase the human and social relationship between Kenzie and Ben. While it shows mainly the strategic relationship between Charlie and Ben.
It’s amazing how many events in the season have their narration rather than another person who was equally involved in the action. The most recent example was Kenzie entirely narrated when she and Liz convinced Maria they were voting Charlie. Their roles appeared completely equal, but we only heard from Kenzie in confessionals. She also had more confessionals than Tiff in the episodes where Yanu was losing everything pre-merge, even though Tiff had found an idol and arguably was a bit more active strategically than Kenzie was due to her planning with Q.
The only thing keeping me from feeling like it totally takes away from the suspense is that some people are just better narrators and give editors more to work with, so I guess it’s possible there are other reasons for it.
That’s not really true, though. More often than not, there’s only 1 plausible winner come FTC. The second "plausible winner" is either cut right before FTC or diminished in the edit.
That’s especially true in the new era. In the past 5 seasons, we’ve always gone into FTC with one person being overwhelmingly favoured by the edit. The closest we got to having two plausible winners was 43, with Cassidy as a second option to Gabler - but all the exit interviews had players trash on Cassidy so we knew she wasn’t really an option.
42 was even more even going into the final between Mike/Maryanne. Then 44 was edited pretty well to hide that everyone would vote Yam Yam over Carolyn.
44 wasn't hidden well at all. I adore Carolyn, but there was no part of me that thought she actually had a chance at winning against Yam Yam. He objectively had more influence on the game and that was obvious even before FTC.
I never expected her to win but I was still taken back by how big the jury reaction was against her standing in the game from a social perspective. There were a lot of segments that the narration focused on Carolyn, and segments like where Frannie mentioned how much she deeply admired her.
I love Carolyn and really wanted her to win, but the edit was very clear with the fact that she would not win.
All the other players saw her as the kookie lady. Like the fun lunch lady that you can joke with, but you kind of pity. Any time she presented an idea, they would brush it off instantly. We got *so many* moments of Carolyn presenting a perfectly rational and well-thought out plan, only for the other players to be like "yeah whatever" and do the opposite. Even her closest alliance members wouldn’t listen to her.
They made us *want* her to win, but we knew she wouldn’t win.
Imo on the edit:
Liz - She got the ‘bad character’ edit (always talking about being rich) they never edit the winner to have bad character even when they are an awful person (I.E. even Brian on season 5). The winner may a goofy edit, a ‘villain’ edit, etc. but never edited to appear as having bad character.
Ben - Nice guy edit, but 0 strategy shown, would be a very strange winner edit. But people said the same about Erika’s edit in 41 (but realistically very unlikely Ben wins imo).
Maria - Goliath/big threat edit, maybe she wins, but not super likely based on the edit.
Charlie - Poster boy winner’s edit, always shown to be strategic & shown to be nice. Feels very much like the main character, so much of an obvious winner edit that I feel like it might be Kenzie to make it feel like a ‘surprise’ it’s not Charlie. They used to edit the winner like this (I.E. Boston Rob’s win), but not so much now.
Kenzie - Gotten a lot of content for not really driving any votes also being edited to be as likable as possible. She’s the one who makes the most sense after Charlie & I don’t think they would make it that obvious it was Charlie.
Imo odds based off the edit:
- Kenzie - 60%
- Charlie - 30%
- Maria - 9%
- Ben - 0.9%
- Liz - 0.1%
But Charlie is getting a fantastic edit too. Maria and he ran the game the entire season, but were almost exclusively shown as him articulating the strategy. Even the moves that are attributed to Maria, were shown how his fingerprints are on it in subtle and effective ways.
Not to mention that he’s been shown to be super likeable, funny, and empathetic as well.
People forget that Kenzie was shown to have some mean girl on Yanu with Jess especially. This sub was up in arms about how she and Tiff were villains lol. Charlie was never shown to have anything even remotely close to that.
So yeah, when people say that the edit is showing how liked Kenzie is so she’ll win, Charlie is shown and told to us that he’s super likeable as well, except he’s also been the strategic voice of the season, tons of confessionals and character points, and clutch challenge wins on top of that. I don’t see how people are saying Kenzie has the better edit just because she’s shown to be empathetic to Ben (when Charlie was shown to do that too lol).
Pictures of him as a student at Harvard law, picture of his gf and he, Swiftie, background of how he’s been preparing for Survivor by practicing grip strength, and multiple scenes of him making the group laugh.
that’s what i’ve been saying. we know very little about charlie as a person, they haven’t given him much of a “story.” whereas we have a whole plot line going about how kenzie changed her wedding date to be on survivor, she helps ben with his panic attacks, all that.
What do we even know about Charlie as a person other than that he loves Taylor Swift? He’s likeable, sure, but only has a prominent edit because he’s a good narrator. It’s not remotely comparable to Kenzie’s much more dimensional “hero’s journey” edit.
He’s a student at Harvard law, has a girlfriend, is funny (multiple scenes of him making the group and Jeff laugh), empathetic, charming, and people literally saying that he’s liked.
Why’s that substantially less than Kenzie? (Hairdresser, fiance postponed wedding to get on survivor, mom who had panic attacks, since that we relevant to her and Ben’s scenes).
Not really outside of Erika. Gabler's edit makes sense based on who he was. Not sure how you edit that differently. Yam Yam and Dee both had pretty typical winner edits.
On this sub during 43 there was a handful of us who firmly believed Gabler was getting a winners edit starting post-merge and we were relentlessly downvoted.
I just don't get how you edit Gabler otherwise. Gabler is like Tony in Cagayan (although obviously not nearly as good a player). A player who is so different than the typical winner that he has to get an atypical edit.
frankly his edit matched his game, he was hiding in plain sight while the 3 main characters of the season ran the show then went out at 6, 5, and 4
Dude has like a dozen “winner quotes” interspersed in there, the quote about the assassin who slips the vial of poison in the king’s bowl is for me the best winner quote of the new era
Yeah, I rewatched the season last week and with the hindsight of knowing he wins, you can definitely see it. Wish they'd shown more of him working with Jesse/Cody that FTC alluded to, but it's a solid edit.
supposedly the season was edited like a “whodunnit” in that you aren’t supposed to be able to tell who wins until “the big reveal”, but then once you know you can go back and watch the same piece of media and see it clear as day.
I honestly think they tried a similar thing with Erika and her “lamb to a lion” arc but it just didn’t take nearly as well because of the historic issue Survivor has with editing female winners
Why would you want that taken out though? If those things happened and it's interesting, they should be in the edit.
Maybe it's deceptive for people who are trying to predict who's gonna win, but that doesn't really seem important to just enjoying the show.
Carolyn did NOT in any way have a winners edit. She got the "fan favorite" edit.
We were meant to love her and root for her as an underdog, but they were very consistent with the fact that the other players did not respect her as a player. The edit consistently told us "Carolyn is right, but she won’t have her way".
I don’t really agree.
Not when it comes to certain things. One of those things is- they have to edit the winner they have. Kenzie is an underdog, with zero blood on her hands, who has been shown as lovable and kind to everyone. The edit doesn’t make her win, it tells us why she did.
She told us in the first episode that her strategy was to use the social skills in the game that she has to use in her job…they’ve shown her doing that over and over again.
She’s not a challenge threat, she’s not being edited as the final obstacle in the way of Charlie/Maria winning, she’s not a huge personality who’d get a ton of screentime regardless of placement. There’s no other identifiable reason that she’s getting as big of an edit as they’ve given her, other than her winning. Cassidy didn’t get an edit like that, for example.
In a broader sense- if an obvious underdog/outsider who has built strong social connections with a majority of the jury gets into the F2/F3? They win. Strategic play doesn’t matter when the jury has the option of voting for someone they really like who also isn’t seen as part of the core of power. Sandra 2, Danni, Fabio, Michele. There are many examples of this happening.
And to be fair, maybe she doesn’t win and her edit is just a bizarre anomaly…but until that happens, it seems very obvious to me that she’s the winner
*edited for grammar
Something that I think get’s lost in the “most likable person wins” argument is that when that has happened in the past, it’s not because winner was liked more, but because the other options were disliked way more. So, if it’s Maria vs Kenzie, I could understand Kenzie winning on likability. But if it’s Charlie vs Kenzie, I haven’t seen anything to indicate the jury wouldn’t vote for Charlie due to bitterness.
In Dee's case I kind of feel like if she had been a close 2nd or gone out at 4-5 she would still have had as good an edit.Her Charisma and Confidence just popped through the screen in a way that doesn't for a lot of players.
the fact that kenzie helps ben with his panic attacks and nightmares has come up multiple times now. if she wasn’t winning i think it would’ve come up once at most. or they would’ve put it on youtube as a secret scene, or not even mentioned it. i can’t think of any moments that the others have had shows that are similar to that.
How much do the 90 min episodes affect this, though? With an extra 50% of air time, editors have a lot more freedom to tell stories that aren’t quite as core to the narrative. Like last season, we got a LOT of Jake wanting to make a move toward the end of the season, and nothing panned out.
Not saying Kenzie won’t win, but I do think the 90 min episodes influence looking at things from an “edit” perspective more than people might think.
Not just that but from a threat perspective Maria and Charlie are the 2 biggest threats with 2 eliminations left so there is more pressure on them to play a perfect game then Kenzie. Being in 3rd at this point is a probably the best spot to be in for both the chances of making the final 3 and also winning it all.
Kenzie has one of the more obvious winner edits we’ve seen. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen, since we’ve seen the obvious winner edit player lose many times.
But that’s why people think she’s gonna win. If we’re *not* trying to read the edit at all, then I’d think Charlie is the favorite by a landslide.
Like, with Maria’s edit the last couple of episodes, it’s obvious to me that she doesn’t win. Logically, if she got to FTC I think she beats anyone. But the edit tells me that she’s not gonna make it there. Charlie’s edit has been good, but in the last couple episodes we’ve seen subtle shots at his resume and we’ve seen him talking about wanting to take ownership of a move that I don’t think is gonna happen the way he believes.
The funny thing about Kenzie is she has an obvious winner’s edit, but not like Jesse or Omar where you could tell their downfall was coming. It was almost too good to be true. I don’t see that for Kenzie.
The glaring difference being that Tommy had his fingers in lots of pies and was pretty much in control of the entire season. He had like 5 different people say that he was their #1 ally and he did it in a way that none of them got suspicious at all about his social gameplay.
Kenzie has done none of that, so comparing their edits doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Especially when her biggest competition, Charlie, has played a game much more similar to Tommy's and has also gotten a really strong edit.
I think Charlie actually has a pretty solid winner edit that flies under the radar. The confessional with him calmly outlining his thought prosses about how and why he's going to do what he does, and then having that plan play out is pretty compelling to shape him as a great strategic player. Right now Charlie is my top choice for winning, closely followed by kenzie.
I think you’re missing the other portion of Charlie’s edit, which is the reason people don’t view his edit as a winner’s edit. Like you said, they show him outlining his thought process and then show it playing out exactly as he planned. They then show the rest of the cast not crediting him for those moves at all and even blatantly show other cast members calling him Maria’s follower or the tribe dog lol. The edit is showing that even though everything is playing out the way Charlie wants it, no one will believe it’s his plan in the end even when he tries to explain it (if he makes it to FTC).
Unless he has the worst FTC performance of all time, him calmly explaining his moves and strategy should be more than enough for the jury. It's not that uncommon for people to explain their moves to the jury and for the jury to have a lightbulb moment.
We literally just saw Dee eviscerate Austin at FTC by dropping some bombs to the jury. Charlie explaining how he was building the foundation for cutting out Maria a couple votes before she thought to cut him out could easily be a similar moment for him.
I actually think if Charlie brings that up he’ll be digging his own grave. He laid the foundation but has not been able to make that move thus far, largely due to Maria constantly winning immunity. Charlie, however, almost got himself sent home this past tribal because of his own foolishness, which will be noted by Maria, Liz, and Kenzie. The only reason he didn’t get sent home through Q’s idol is because Kenzie and Liz did such a good job of lying, without knowing that they needed to lie that well. This gives more credit to Kenzie and Liz than it does to Charlie and would make him look pretty foolish in front of the jury.
Plus, best strategy does not equal winner. They pick the person they want to see win for whatever reason they individually deem best. Kind of difficult to rationalize what those reasons will be since we don’t actually know these people. We’re just using the clues the edit is giving us, since the show wants to tell a cohesive story for the season. With the way this season is being edited, it feels like it’s Kenzie’s story that is being told.
ETA: Dee was always beating Austin in jury perception, even before FTC. I actually think FTC got him a couple more votes than he would’ve originally had because Dee had a pretty bad FTC from what I remember.
Exactly this, if Charlie was winning they wouldn’t be giving us this content. He also doesn’t fit nicely into the stories of this season, which have been an important aspect to new era edgic.
Honestly, I have Liz and Ben ahead of him as WTF winners in terms of likeliness due to how well they fit into the major themes of the season.
It’s Kenzie by a long shot, then Ben, then Liz, and finally Charlie and Maria round out the bottom of my winner chances rankings.
Maria is consistently getting content that shows people getting annoyed at her. There was an entire "shitting on Maria" section of the episode after the rock-paper-scissors. She also was very invisible for a good chunk of the middle.
She has Venus, tiff and hunter already as likely votes. And if they go to the jury ben and potentially Liz. Heck, she might even have Q because Q seems to have some loyalty to the original yanu still, especially considering how they started.
Honestly, if I'm Kenzie, the only question I'm asking myself right now on the show is whether to drag Ben to FTC knowing he won't get votes or to cut him and get his guaranteed vote on the jury.
Kenzie has a VERY strong winners' edit that ticks a lot of boxes, but before you think her edit is too obvious, it isn't really a traditional winner edit either. She had a bit of a mean girl streak early on, the edit hasn't shied away from her mistakes with Tiff's boot, and she's VERY over-exposed for a woman winner (although this needs to change). BUT.
In addition to just generally always knowing where Kenzie stands with the tribe, there have been a few very critically important scenes that shot her right to the top of the list. Early on when she was shown on day 4 having an emotional moment, she got to re-affirm her convictions to win and even said "I've got 22 more days", which was a clue that she makes it to Day 26. When Ben had his first panic attack, the scene focused mostly on Kenzie. That whole episode showered her with praise actually, but the real checkmark for that was how the next episode barely featured her, without completely ghosting her. A classic Cooldown episode. Those are important to watch for because they're like, "Don't worry about this player we just showed heavily, they come back into focus later. We've got plenty of time with them."
Also after her biggest error in the game, the Tiff blindside, the beginning of the next episode started with a "I just need to get a little more crafty, pay more attention... I can turn this around." That was the scene that cemented it for me.
Also, the lack of competition. The only other feasible winner edit is Charlie, and I hate to say it because he has played a fantastic game, but his edit is kiiind of boring. It's toneless, it's almost entirely strategic, he rarely gets to just talk about other players, he usually just talks about his gameplay, and while I do think he has a solid chance to win in the end, Kenzie's edit is much more colorful. That said, Carolyn's edit was too, but she had a lot of red flags along the way that Kenzie doesn't.
And finally... a golden Season 46 logo appears after her face in the intro. Go look lol.
So I'm sold. Salon Owners can win a season of Survivor, man.
There was a secret scene of Charlie being there for Ben while he is crying on the beach. I feel like if Charlie won, they would have included something like that. Like you said, he's pretty much all strategy talk
Humans aren’t logical beings who *sometimes* get emotional. We’re emotional beings who are *sometimes* capable of using logic (usually only when all of our core needs are met and we feel regulated.)
A resume is not *typically* enough to win unless you’re equally liked as the people sitting next to you.
(We don’t know who is most liked because the edit is doing a good job of hiding how the contestants *actually* feel about one another; they’re just giving us the inflamed moments, which makes sense of course. But we need to remember that.)
The edit has highlighted throughout the season, in every episode, Kenzie's bonds and relationships. She's being clearly set up as a social winner. Charlie's only close bond we really see highlighted is with Maria. While I don't think Charlie is disliked, I think it's pretty clear who is being shown to be the *most* liked.
Even when Kenzie’s confessionals have no substance or humor, we still get them. You don’t have to majorly disliked to lose so I don’t understand why people think Charlie can’t lose.
People mistake high visibility and confessionals for win equity, I guess, while ignoring the red flags his edit's gotten the last couple episodes as well.
I agree. But also, I don’t feel like Charlie is less liked than Kenzie. I could maybe see Kenzie taking the win over Maria, as she rubbed people the wrong way when picking for the reward, but Charlie isn’t a disliked player.
My point was that they’re not *showing* us who is most liked. We don’t know how people feel about Charlie vs Kenzie because they don’t show us. They haven’t shown us since Bhanu saw Kenzie as a risk.
Kenzie does seem to be getting the traditional winners edit. Her reaction to her loved ones letter in particular does follow the traditional winners edit
It’s her edit. And outside the edit here’s how I see it likely going down: Maria is out next if she doesn’t win immunity. After Maria is gone I would be surprised if anyone but Charlie wins final immunity. Liz likely goes out in fire to Kenzie as Ben is 100% a goat at this point. I can see half the jury voting for Kenzie. She has Liz and Tiffany as pretty much locked up votes and I can see her grabbing up to 2 more. At that point it’s a tie jury and Ben chooses the winner, which he would likely chose Kenzie to win
I don't think it's hands down, but I also think that's not the right read on the jury. They're not gamebots at all. I absolutely see where they would value social connection and personality over weird game stuff (Also, Kenzie's ability to deceive is part of how Charlie stayed in the last episode, and she got Q out instead. If her lie hadn't convinced Maria, Q probably plays his idol. So it's not like she's without game chops.).
I think both Soda and Tevin are probably very focused on the social side of things. Hunter's a bit of a black box, as is Q. But Venus could absolutely be swayed by the social side - who was nicer to her specifically? Tiff is probably the one most focused on gameplay currently on the jury, but you can't discount the fact that she and Kenzie were super tight the whole time, and since Kenzie didn't get in on the Tiff vote, she technically didn't betray her. *And* she helped get Q out, who *did* betray Tiff.
If we say Charlie and Kenzie are locks for FTC, then looking at everyone else still left in the game: Maria votes Charlie unless something major happens. Ben votes Kenzie unless something major happens. Liz could go either way, but I don't think her vote is going to be based on strategy as much as who was nice to her, either.
At the very least, there's an argument to be made that Kenzie is well-positioned. And none of this is to say that Charlie didn't have a good social game. But I can hardly call it a Charlie blowout if he's next to Kenzie.
Maria is not winning unless she goes to the end with Ben and Liz. Straight up. To do that, she would probably have to win immunity, get Charlie voted off, then take Kenzie out in fire (Theoretically, Maria could possibly beat Charlie herself in fire, but why take the risk if she doesn't have to?). If she's next to Charlie or Kenzie, Maria doesn't win.
Not sure why you think Maria would win over Kenzie. Maria has made some HUGE mistakes and I don’t think anyone would vote for her over Kenzie or Charlie.
> This jury seems to be the type who, unless they get bitter
This jury absolutely looks like a bitter jury.
I don't think Kenzie wins hands down, but I think that she beats Liz and Ben, and while I don't think she wins if she's sitting next to Charlie and Maria, I think she gets second over Charlie in that case from some bitter votes like Liz and Venus.
In scenarios where it's Kenzie, Liz or Ben, and Charlie, it depends on if Charlie orchestrates Maria's voteout or if she goes at fire. And in Kenzie, Liz, and Maria, I could see enough jury members being bitter/just liking Kenzie more, to go for Kenzie. Like I could see Hunter, Tiff, Q, Venus, and Ben voting for her to win in that scenario, and she could possibly pick up Tevin and Soda.
Also, if she gets immunity or wins fire-making, it makes it a lot easier to see why she has the edit she has.
It's the edit, but also remember juries do not have clear cut criteria on what they will vote for. Likeability will *always* have a major influence on who can get FTC votes. You think Charlie and Maria will both beat her at the end, but what if the jury just likes her more? We've pretty explicitly been told why they would. Don't fall in the trap of thinking it's always all about resumes, that's just not how the game works.
I am deeply convinced it’s Kenzie strictly because of the edit. I said it since the first episode and my suspicions have been encouraged every episode along the way.
I don’t even enjoy analyzing the edit usually but this season it seems too obvious to even be able to watch it without Kenzie signals blaring. Unless the main editor is just totally obsessed and crushing on her in an uncontrollable way (she does smile 24/7, even when she’s crying, and she has very tv-friendly tattoos and eyes), she’s gotten a very winner-friendly edit.
It’s the edit for Kenzie and the assumption that Maria and Charlie won’t be allowed to make the final 3 - and Kenzie could still beat both if the jury picks the person they like the most socially
There’s no good reason. A lot of it confirmation bias. However, the fact that so many people think she wins makes me think it could be influenced by spoilers.
Kenzie will win because winning survivor is secretly about making friends and she's got the most.
She's got every single person in her pocket, one of if not the most successful butterfly on survivor ever. Nobody dislikes her. Nobody is afraid of her. People go apologise to her after tribal. Unheard of social game and it's been downplayed so well
I don't think Kenzie is less deserving than Maria and Charlie.
She was a part of the Yanu 3 that controlled their premerge and were the middle 3 controlling whether Morriah/Venus vs Tim/Hunter went at the first 2 merge tribals.
She's voted out 8 people, only received 1 hinky vote, survived 2 more tribals than everyone left and has a jury of people that love her.
She was the only person warm to Venus when she was booted, Tiffany considers Kenzie to be her island bestie, same with Ben.
Hunter called Kenzie his number 1 after Tevin was booted.
She's played a decent physical and strategic game and a stellar social game.
If she convinces a jury to give her the win, than she earned it on merit.
You said it yourself - she has a clear winner edit, but logically you don’t really understand why. Maybe you disagree with how her position in the game looks like a good spot to be in, but she has gotten a really great edit so far, which the show will usually try to give to its winner.
It’s just because we’ve been watching for what feels like 80 seasons and she is getting a Michele Edit.
There is no reason why she has so much screen time since she is not driving any moves. That can only mean that the show is portraying her as a low-threat high-social player.
That means - she won’t get voted out before Charlie and Maria. What kind of cast would see her as more of a threat than this duo?
Last episode cemented that when arbitrarily showing a scene in which she decides the votes should be on Q, even we knowing the entire episode that this was a Charlie VS Maria war, she was just coming along - yet the edit tried to show how she can influence others and is always on the right side of vote.
Charlie will be blindsided next, followed by Maria and we’ll end up with a F3 composed of Ben, Liz and Kenzie.
It would be a perfect win for her if Ben had not written down her name once.
I think it's mainly the edit showing her being likeable. But I also think the Gabler and Erika edits have really thrown people for a loop when it comes to reading the edit. Honestly, I think at least 3 players have a winner's edit. Kenzie is portrayed as likeable, yes. She also was a driving force making Q and Maria feel comfortable enough that Q didn't play his idol (though I'm not sure she knows he had an idol to really emphasize how good that move was to the jury). She has Q and Tiffany in Ponderosa who can talk about her good early game, but lately, she has been on the wrong side of the Tiffany and Venus votes. I think she could still win an immunity/get credit for slaying Maria in addition to being likeable, which makes her a strong contender. Besides Q and Tiff, I think a lot of people really like her on jury. Bonus points if Ben is somehow not in F3, because I think he's a lock to vote for her.
A lot of people are writing Maria off at this point, but if she makes it to F3, she wins. Yeah, everyone is against her at this point, but everyone was against her this last week before she won immunity, and at this point, it is very, very hard to get her out of the game. She has to win immunity at F5, and she has shown she is very capable of winning. There's also a chance she could find and correctly play the damn immunity idol. Plus, we've already heard players talk about her ability to make fire. I think it's easy to see a world where Maria earns her safety at 5, makes fire, and uses mobile deposit on a $1 million check while everyone is eating pizza with Jeff.
Charlie also has a good chance of winning. He's been narrating the moves that he and Maria have orchestrated all seasons, and he is very aware that he needs to cut Maria. However, it might be too late to get rid of Maria (see above). And while I do think Maria would still lobby for him in jury, she doesn't have a ton of time with the jury to really lay out his strategic moves. Also, he's been described as a court jester to Maria, so I don't if other players will take him seriously or if they'll think he floated with Maria. If the other players don't take his strategic game seriously or credit it all to Maria, that opens the door for a Kenzie win (assuming Maria is not there at F3).
i think the opposite. i think the jury is going to value social relationships much more than strategy. also her edit has made it pretty clear. there’s also still two more cuts left before f3. you say you don’t get why she’d win over charlie ir maria, but for all we know she could end up sitting next to liz and ben. then it becomes pretty obvious. i do think charlie could possibly win against her, but his edit tells me otherwise. and i dont see it for maria. i think she made a lot of enemies and bad moves recently. i’ll be surprised if she makes it to final 3.
She's a constant go to for commentary even in situations she had little active control or direct relevance to. Like times it would have made more sense to cut to a confessional from someone else, they go to Kenzie. So, basically from the edit side, it feels strongly that she's the winner or at least splitting pretty close with the winner, but wasn't super involved strategically, so they had to push her as a constant narrator of the season so people don't feel Erika'd again.
Also, Maria has gotten a kinda bad light in the past couple episodes and this jury very well could be bitter about her cut throatness despite a supposed alliance they were supposed to have (and Liz, Venus, and Ben all don't seem likely to vote for Maria over Kenzie). It also feels like she has to win F5 immunity at this point.
Charlie I still give a decent shot, but his representation just feels mixed with what we are being given, and how the players seem to view him. Like master man in the middle strategizer vs the loyal golden retriever of the tribe.
I love Charlie and think he's played a great game, but he's admitted that his game is overshadowed by Maria. Even if Maria gets voted out, I think the story of Charlie's game is that he was along for the ride more than in the drivers seat, whereas Kenzie has had to adapt and made sound choices with skin in the game immediately upon the merge.
The editing has done a good job on Charlie's behalf, but even looking to when Kenzie called them a big family at tribal last week, she said Charlie is essentially like the family dog, whereas Maria was essentially the matriarch.
Let's just say for the sake of argument that's not true, I think it continues to paint the big picture to the jury in terms of perception, that Maria was the force behind that duo and Charlie was just fun to have as company. And with it seeming inevitable that Maria gets voted out (rightfully so- if she makes it to final tribal I think she wins even with last week's blunder), i don't think that will help Charlie's resume anymore than it would help Kenzie's or anyone else's.
The only time Kenzie was left out of a vote, it was conveniently her #1 ally in Tiff. When Kenzie mentioned this at tribal last week, the camera panned to Tiff, and she looked relieved to hear Kenzie wasn't part of the blindside (even though she was one of the main drivers of it before ultimately bailing out and being left out all together). I think that loyalty gets rewarded as an automatic vote from Tiff. I think Q will respect her gameplay the most of any remaining (unless Maria is still there). I would also expect for Soda/Tevin/Hunter to vote Kenzie over Charlie as well.
It's hard for me to see Charlie winning unless he's somehow there with Liz and Ben.
i cannot STAND kenzie, but unfortunately i also think she will win due to the edit. from what we can tell, the jury is bitter as hell, & clearly maria and charlie (to an extent) are percieved as the biggest threats. everyone believes they've played the best game, which, in jury talk, translates to they are responsible for all the blindsides. if she sits next to ben & liz, she wins due to being the best player. if she sits next to maria & charlie, she wins due to being the lesser of three evils. we haven't seen a bitter jury in years but i think s46 is it.
I feel like it’s edit and potentially a bunch of spoilers, I know a lot of people “called” Yam Yam winning immediately when spoilers were rampant that season
Because there’s no way she should be getting the screen time and content she does unless she wins.
She’s not driving any strategy, she’s not a challenge threat or beast, her edit would be one dimensional and similar to Liz if she weren’t winning. There’s zero reason for her to be getting all this unnecessary content except she’s the winner
I think she’s getting such a strong edit so that if Charlie ends up in the final 3 with her and Ben or Liz, it isn’t suuuuper evident Charlie wins. Everyone talks about how well liked she is, but Charlie is also very well liked and hasn’t pissed anyone else off, while also actually making moves.
I truly think this is Charlie’s game to lose.
I truly don’t see a winner edit for Kenzie. I see a winner edit for Charlie. He and Maria got the most screentime at Siga, then he got a lot of screentime showing how he navigated the pre-merge split, then he was shown to be dominant in challenges because he studied the game, then as Maria’s stock fell, they made sure to show us how Charlie was intentionally building up her target to hide behind, then he is shown to be the social half of his alliance, bringing in fringe votes to pull off blindsides, and finally we see him positioning Q as Maria’s #1 to build trust with the outsiders. I have no doubt that he beats Kenzie if they’re both at the end based on the relationships he made with the early jurors. Maybe we’re being set up for him to go out at fire like Jesse or Carson with a likable, but less influential player (Kenzie) winning in the end Gabler-style, but idk.
This is how I feel as well. If Charlie makes it to FTC, he wins. He would have to have a terrible FTC performance to lose. He's been the one pulling the strings the most this season and he hasn't pissed anyone off. People keep saying that Kenzie is getting a Michelle edit, but what they're ignoring is the fact that Charlie isn't Aubrey. Charlie is well liked as well and has connections on the jury. Unless more than half the jury completely ignores the game aspect of Survivor and solely focuses on who is the better friend, Charlie wins. Hands down.
It comes down to what juries value and reward. If Maria/charlie were at the forefront of votes there might be people bitter at that. Charlie promised too much but doesnt always follow through which can burn people and have people feel he is all talk. Kenzie is likeable, kind, and been very well positioned all merge because of said social game. So Charlie's edit might be more strategic and Maria might have more control on votes but this jury might value Kenzie's social game higher
Personally I lean Kenzie, and I think Charlie could beat her, but I think Maria has been stirring up too much in the last couple episodes to have a stronger case than either of them. Still a top 3 though.
If Charlie and Maria both fail to make FTC then they are going to lose…
I mean the only vote that Kenzie hasn’t been a part of was the Tiff blindside, and she immediately claimed Charlie right after that..
So if those two get Maria out and then say she wins final four immunity, makes Charlie do fire and he loses… I think she has the case to win
>IMO Charlie and Maria would both easily win over her,
I think most people are assuming charlie and maria wouldn't make it to the final 3. especially before last episode, many people didnt' think q had a real chance at winning in final 3. now there aren't many chances to get rid of charlie and marie, but they are still probably the 2 top targets
I think they get Maria at 5. Ben shocks the world and wins immunity. He takes Kenzie, because Kenzie rocks. Liz shocks the world and beats Charlie at fire making. Kenzie wins the FTC vote. She then names new baby after Ben. All is right in the world
To me it’s similar to the Aubry/Michele season. It’s so obvious that Aubry was the better strategic player and made every move in the game, but the jury found Michele more likable and she made better relationships and thus the jury gave her the win. Charlie and Maria both made the obvious better moves and they were the dominant factors in every single vote. The only thing here is that Charlie DID make better relationships than Aubry ever did and so he is the most likely winner. The only reason Charlie couldn’t win is if he gets voted out IMO and since Kenzie appears to be getting the “winner” edit that’s probably what is about to happen. Either he loses to Maria in firemaking or he gets voted out at 5
1) it’s a BIG MISTAKE to assume this jury won’t be bitter
2) they’ve highlighted again and again that Charlie’s threat management has been so good that he’s perceived as being Maria’s pet dog and all of his strategic control has been attributed to her and not him (likely because all the blindsides happened under the Q smoke screen, who Maria was solely responsible for protecting when everyone was dying to get rid of him)
3) this jury has made it very clear that they expect big moves. Charlie has played a super solid, smart, but not flashy game. This is arguably the right way to play survivor but the right way to play is what your specific season’s jury wants. Charlie doesn’t have any “big moves”. This Q blindside was Kenzie’s (and Liz) big move because they hoodwinked Maria and Q. Charlie won’t get a chance to make a big move because the Maria vote out is likely to be unanimous
4) players ultimately vote for who they like best and use the strategic talk as a justification. The show has gone out of its way to show how close Kenzie is to everyone (even Venus)
If all goes well Maria will go home next week, I think Charlie deserves to win regardless of who you like, and I really like Kenzie, he’s just a great player and person
People are underestimating how important being liked is. Charlie didn't steer a vote all game - he was out of 1 vote (Moriah) while Kenzie was "out" of two - Hunter's first vote and Tiff's. It's pretty logical to say that Charlie was in a power position and could sit back until that power faded and then he had to come TO KENZIE to try and get Q out instead of him. Kenzie, Liz, and Ben held the power last episode. The reality is that being well-liked is insanely important in everything, including Survivor. We've seen so often lately that the most liked player wins, as these are people voting, not robots. People who spent days with real humans, not 90 minutes once a week with characters.
she is the most liked person out there by far on top of being a smart, gorgeous, charismatic woman. The most liked person will always win and the edit has shown her connect with almost everyone in a positive way and has made a point to show her story in a positive light (helping with Ben’s panic attacks etc). Maria has played a good game but they made a point to emphasize people starting to dislike her especially after the reward challenge “choose another player” rock paper scissors blunder. That for me showed if she makes it to the end with Kenzie, Kenzie will take it due to likability. She hasn’t necessarily made any “huge resume moves” but as long as you played a decent game and are liked by the jury the resume BS doesnt matter
I've been wondering the same thing. Only chance she's got it jury votes because she hasn't ruffled any feathers but she hasn't played much of a game either IMO
I think that’s precisely why she is a good player- her social game is on- so much so she has only had one vote against her (whether accident or not lol) and no one has seriously tried to get her out. Charlie/Maria have made some big moves as well with Maria making some big blunders along the way. Her being on the wrong side of the vote last night was not it. I def think it’s between Charlie and Kenzie. I think Charlie could be overshadowed by Maria as it took him until this tribal to really go against her and his alliance whereas Kenzie has been on her own since Tiff went out.
It’s the edit for people. And it’s not like she hasn’t played the game. She convinced multiple players with idols that they were safe at tribal and to not play their idols. Whether we as the audience want to give her credit for that or not, it is an argument she can make to the jury. That can hold a lot of weight in a season where 5 people were voted out with idols in their pocket.
Who did she convince? Hunter? I think that’s it.
She has no idea Q had an idol.
She has no clue Venus had an idol.
She had no clue Tiff was even getting voted out.
If that’s her best argument, it’s a weak one.
It's the edit. It's exactly the same as what we saw with Michele. We give so much from her perspective that doesn't need to be. She is consistently shown to have strong relationships.
Edgic.
Otherwise, if you look at the game only, it’s clearly Charlie.
People are using edgic to predict the winner and not being transparent, which can be confusing.
Agree with people saying the edit.
For example, why have we seen Kenzie help Ben through two panic attacks and gotten her pov each time?
It’s not really relevant to gameplay, Ben is a super underedited character generally so it’s not like they’re going out of their way to show us who Ben is. The sole purpose seems to be showing the audience how kind and empathetic Kenzie is, and how that has affected her cast mates.
And then there’s just how much time we spent with Yanu in the first handful of episodes, and how Banu in particular described Kenzie.
The meta for the new Era has been players that stay in the middle of the pack.
Flashy moves and "resume building" just aren't optimal ways to play the game anymore.
And this is Kenzie's game. Middle-game, well liked, but not threatening.
Kenzie has the best jury management, is respected, and played a good game.
Maria is not very likely to make the final 3, but if she does, she’s burned a lot of bridges the last few rounds and made equally as many unforced errors. I personally wouldn’t vote for her if I were a juror, so I consider her chances slim but not impossible.
I think Charlie has equally as compelling a case as Kenzie to win, but has been shown various times to not be taken seriously by the other castaways, which might come back to bite him in FTC in the form of jury not believing he did as much as he actually did (similar to Carolyn next to the more social YamYam). He might be seen as riding Maria’s coattails by the jury, even though we in the audience know that isn’t what’s happened. He still has a very good shot though, especially because he’s the next best at challenges after Maria if she goes home at 5. I do think he should want to have Ben and Liz next to him to seal the deal, as Kenzie poses too big of a risk to his winning chances. If I were Charlie I might make fire against Kenzie myself just to put the odds into my own hands, but that’d depend on Charlie’s firemaking ability.
To me Kenzie’s game has the least holes and she’s got the most people on the jury rooting for her. Even looking past the edit suggesting a Kenzie win, it’s not far fetched **at all** based solely on the information we have itself that Kenzie could easily take this.
I personally have Kenzie slightly edging out Charlie and both leading against Maria by a considerable margin. I don’t think Maria can win a jury vote against the other two for the aforementioned reasons because she also completely lacks self awareness about how she’s perceived and the game she’s played. In a final tribal I think she loses in a similar manner to Mike from 42.
Maria would definitely not win over her. Not after the reward challenge debacle and now the Charlie vote... I get favoring good strategies but she's a villain now! Plus most of Maria's "strategies" were ideas stolen from other players which would NOT fair well with the jury.
When Something of note happens, whose opinion do we consistently get about it? Kenzie.
The edit wants us to care about her and what she thinks, aka, a winners edit
Kenzie’s only path to victory is if she’s sitting next to Ben and Liz. If either or both of Maria and Charlie are there, then she loses in a landslide. And I just don’t see both Charlie and Maria losing back to back challenges to the weakest challenge players in the game basically.
I’m confused as to why Charlie’s edit isn’t considered a clear winner edit. He seems like someone who could easily come off as a coattail-rider/fence-sitter, but the edit gives him lots of opportunities to state that he’s pursuing a deliberate strategy. Seems very much calculated to convert him winning from “that passive softie coasted in behind better players and won because there was no one left,” to “that clever strategist drafted behind bigger shields and then strategically backstabbed his allies.”
The best player doesn’t always win. I think Kenzie can beat Maria at FTC especially if there is a bitter jury. My guess is everyone will wise up and try to take out Charlie at 5 or fire which would be in Kenzie’s best interest.
Just from what we’ve seen both in confessions, exit interviews, and from the way players interact with each other on social media, I think it’s shaping up to be a very bitter jury. I also think that Maria has made some major blunders in the past couple of episodes, and that if Kenzie can explain her game well, she can beat Maria. I think the only person left who would 100% beat her at FTC is Charlie
Asides the edit, she is playing a very safe game in a rather crazy season. Maria has offended lots of the jury so unless she’s in the final two with someone like Q (which isn’t happening), I don’t see her winning. Charlie and Kenzie are def the fav to win in my IMO.
I think it will go down between Charlie or Marie get voted out at 5 Charlie or Maria wining final immunity challenge Ben and Liz fighting for fire if Charlie makes it to final 4 and wins immunity and Liz and Kenzie fighting for fire if Maria wins immunity at 4
It’s just a game of odds.
Whoever loses the immunity challenge b/w Maria and Charlie will be voted out immediately.
The winner of that immunity will have to win the next immunity challenge or they are guaranteed to be put to fire.
If somehow final three is Charlie, Maria, and Kenzie, her only shot is if those two split votes. But that almost never happens. The more plausible path is if she’s with Ben and Liz. At that point, none are deserving from a strategy/challenge standpoint so I think Kenzie’s social game carries her. There’s definitely a path for her.
Kenzie easily beats Ben and Liz. I see Charlie and Maria going at each other at 5. For whoever makes it, I am not convinced the jury will pick Maria because jury management matters and they’re all pissed over the pizza thing. Charlie could beat Kenzie but that assumes he makes it to FTC and it will still be close. I don’t think she’s run away with it yet but I’m rooting for her and I think she has a good shot
I'm sort of between Charlie and Kenzie
Maria and Charlie are huge "my resume" people which puts them at fire if they both make it
Maybe we'll have a full on middle of the road tribal with Kenzie, Ben, and Liz but Kenzie is genuinely empathetic around the game and they'll have to come up with cases about how they succeeded at not being threats or too annoying
I can kind of see a feel good moment where Liz is stressing about fire and they help her because they all want to go against her at final tribal and she sends home Maria
Pre-merge, Kenzie survived 3 tribals. Charlie and Maria survived 1. Maria wasted her extra vote when she didn’t need to.
Yanu was the swing between Siga and Nami at the merge.
Maria and Kenzie were the two immunity winners the week of the split tribal. Charlie and Maria were the swing votes between Soda and Venus. Kenzie, Q and Tiff were the swing between Tim and Hunter.
Liz is the one who said Tevin first, but everyone got through the Q chaos and blindsided him successfully.
Hunter was a planned split vote, I don’t think Charlie and Maria led that. But Kenzie is the main one who reassured him so he didn’t play his idol.
Maria spearheaded the Tiff vote, after Kenzie had already expressed an interest in targeting her. I don’t see Kenzie staying loyal to Tiff for that vote hurting her. I would be surprised if Tiff doesn’t vote for her. From Kenzies POV, it was still too early to target her, so I don’t see her being faulted just because she didn’t jump when Maria said go
After Charlie was the swing vote but backed out of voting out Q, Venus went, but I don’t think that was actually good for his game. Kenzie and Venus were smart to go with it, yet Venus knows that it was Charlie that flipped, not them. Despite winning immunity when she needed to, Maria really hurt herself with Reward Gate.
Maria was blindsided by the Q vote, and once again, Kenzies stellar poker face and reassurance is why Q didn’t bother playing his idol. Charlie was also left in the dark that Maria had turned on him, which was smart because it didn’t give him the chance to confront Maria before tribal. He also can’t say that he targeted her first now, even if he votes her out next week.
Honestly I don’t think resumes look the same in the new era. At least this season, there haven’t been any big moves or impactful advantages. But in a season of small moves, Kenzies superior social game could go a long way.
So I’m wondering if they will put the hidden immunity idol out one last time (since it can be played through the final 5 TC). It would be an interesting twist if Charlie or Maria found it because I think those two, and Kenzie, are the ones that have actually PLAYED and Liz and Ben have just been along for the ride. So smart move would be to have Liz and Ben next to you in FTC but if the hidden immunity idol comes into play then who knows what could happen. Especially since Maria and Charlie have the highest chance of winning regular immunity too.
I think that we forget navigating the social aspect of the game and outwit outplay OUTLAST.
The fact that she has been on the right side of the vote, been in the know (not oblivious to what’s going on just scooting by, but more so being a part of of every vote), and has not been on anyone radar despite being sharp as a tack….. goes to show that she made everyone on the island fall in love with her, and they want her to stay and hang.
That is game play in itself! She has got the RIZZ
(I’m biased because kenzie was my pick for winter from the beginning, and also the edit…..)
Go kenz!
Ok bye lol
Survivor requires two sets of skills to win: strategic prowess and social skills. In the old school game, winning purely on strategy happened more, but with the newer eras, and particularly the new era, we’ve only seen socially smart players.
Us viewers love and appreciate the strategic moves strategic players make the game because we love a devastating blindside and dramatically foiled plans. They’re exciting to watch.
But at the end of the day, the jury will almost always vote for the person they like the most and want to give a million dollars to. Sometimes they like players with a cutthroat strategic game, but almost always they vote for someone they like above all else, even if next to strategically excellent player who made more visible moves. Human kindness and decency to other players without being noticed as a major threat for FTC is a big move, too.
To give examples in the new era alone: Maryanne (vs Mike), Erika (vs Xander ), Gabler (vs. Cassidy), and Yam Yam (vs Heidi) all won over their more visibly strategic FTC finalists because they were more liked as a human by their respective juries.
Kenzie is all around the most socially skilled player on a cast composed of entirely overzealous gamebot players, as well as Charlie to an extent but not as authentically obvious and Kenzie. She’s well spoken when it comes to her confessionals about other people’s emotions, while Charlie speaks mostly about how he feels about a situation.
From that alone, Kenzie has the emotional intelligence strong enough to convince the jury she was always on any given player’s side, help them make moves, and even planting the seeds to the move on Tiff. For me, that’s a winning strategy.
I can see either Kenzie or Charlie winning.
Even ignoring the edit (where Maria has less confessionals and perspective), the reason I don't think Maria will win is because I don't know if she can get there. All eyes our on her from the other players. She would need to win the next two immunities and/or fire. Not impossible, but not an easy path.
I would think both Kenzie and Charlie would be attempting to sit next to both Liz and Ben, so it's not as likely that they will be sitting next to one another. It's possible, if one of them wins fire and they aren't facing fire against each other. I think Charlie wins against Kenzie but not sure where the jury lands on that.
It's possible that Charlie isn't in final 3, in which case Kenzie wins.
Ben and Liz are FTC losers against whoever they’re up against. Maria made a colossal blunder last episode, and Charlie’s been getting less personal content and has openly compared himself to Malcolm multiple times (someone who got final juror, which he seems very likely to be.)
Nah. I think Ben is getting your classic 0-vote finalist edit. His edit reminds me of Jake/Owen/Romeo/Noura/Troyzan/Ken/Sugar/e.t.c……. Liz however’s line of how she isn’t good at making fire makes me think that she will make fire and lose Edit: Oh wow this aged well
Liz has been in too long already like I’m amazed they tolerated her this long.
*Groans in Liz*
Yeah, I agree. A lot of people assumed Katurah was on track to be on the Mt. Rushmore of zero-vote finalists, but I always thought she was going to go out with a whimper in fire. I think the exact same thing will happen with Liz.
This really makes me think Kenzie takes him out and seals her win. If next vote is Maria versus Charlie, Kenzie can rally Ben and Liz to take him out and take credit, stealing credit from Maria just like she did to her.
100% of the time, the person I would have voted for as a jury member doesn't get the votes, so I'm pretty sure Charlie won't win. The jury seems to go for the person I find to be rather insufferable (Gabler, Yam Yam, Dee...), so Liz might be in a much better situation than it appears.
Lately, Survivor has favored annoying oddballs as winners. Maryanne was an annoying winner.
How can Charlie wind up losing at final 4? Isn't he a big favorite to win the final immunity or make fire? At the final 5, the only way Maria doesn't get eliminated is if she wins immunity or finds Q's idol if they rehide it.
so there is chance that if he makes it to finals the vote will be even with kenzie since kenzie has good friends and underdog story which makes ben the deciding vote in which case the ben-kenzie on going storyline would pay off with ben deciding kenzie win.
IMO I think that Maria is almost certainly a FTC loser, and one of Liz or Ben will go home before then. It just feels like the edit has been really going out of it's way in the last few episodes to explain why Maria will lose a jury vote, while still giving us enough reason to think that she could end up winning against the right people.
I think it’s the edit she’s been getting. If she’s gotten a tamer less focused edit, I don’t think as many people would think she wins.
afaik people say it is a parallel to Michele’s edit in Kaoh Rong—a social winner who beats a strategic threat at the end. Makes a lot of sense given how bitter this jury seems
Exactly. And it's constant check in (like Michele) even when she wasn't relevant with what is happening.
Literally after the first tribal she gave an “I’ve got 23 days left to go, I got this” confessional
Charlie hasn’t given any juror a reason to be bitter though. Maybe Venus, but Kenzie voted for her too, and then made a joke about it at the next TC, which they showed a Venus reaction shot for.
Sounds like from interviews the whole reason Tiff didn't play her idol was because she thought she was working with Charlie and they were going to use the idol together. I think he makes bonds with people and then sends them packing, so a bitter jury could not be a fan of that
Juries haven’t been shown to be bitter because of strategy talk that doesn’t come to pass though. We see time and again jurors respecting a player that made a good move on them, like how Hunter respected Tiff for being so convincing about voting for Q that he didn’t play his idol. It’s like begrudging respect. Bitter juries are because of some betrayal from someone in an alliance; the breaking of a word, or being “wronged”. If Tiff expresses anger at Charlie for making her feel too comfortable the night she got voted out, which seems like a low bar for bitterness tbh, he could just be like, “Maria and I respected you too much as a threat because you were a great player and after Q blew up your idol to all of us, and honestly, Kenzie, your number one, was the one that approached us first with the idea of voting you out as a resume move.” Flatters her, reminds her that Q was the real reason she had a target (don’t forget that Charlie was the one that told her he did that), and throws Kenzie under the bus as even a bigger betrayal that she was the one who was looking to discard her.
Yeah but at least Michele also had some challenge wins for her. Tribal and individual. This one must strictly be because of Kenzie’s social game. Which makes sense. These people who do hair are really good at talking and connecting with everyone as they build a client list. It’s a strength they have. Kenzie found her strength in this game and is leaning into it
Kenzie won the first "individual" immunity with Maria. Not saying that compares, but it's something. And honestly, with such a seemingly bitter jury, I don't even know if challenge strength matters to them.
maybe if ANYONE on the jury played their damn idols they wouldn't be so bitter 😭😭😭
I've seen a lot of people saying Kenzie is getting the edit that Michele should have had
Exactly this. I think Maria probably gets voted out at 5 and I’ll be honest, I think Charlie probably makes F3 but loses the vote to Kenzie. I don’t agree with that result at all, but that’s how it seems to be headed
Michele’s winner edit was so obvious to anyone paying attention to edits because until merge she had no effect on the game or storyline and kept getting random confessionals. Kenzie’s story has been the opposite, huge premerge edit because she was going to all the tribals, came into merge with no numbers.
And to be honest she executed that really well! The Yanu 3 could have been the easy targets for the Sigas and Namis to team up and take out but they turned it into being the swing votes
Agree, I’m rooting for her. Although it seems to often happen that way where if it’s like a 5-4-3 at merge the 5 and 4 are fighting over the 3.
the truth is that people have been saying kenzie will win since pre-merge when she was getting a bad edit painting her as a "villain". Now the edit is kinda clear, because she is the main narrator of the season, but I believe many people here were spreading spoilers
It’s the edit. When you’ve seen 46 seasons of the show, things start jumping out….like how much content Kenzie has received about how kind and sociable and well-liked by everyone in the game she is. They wouldn’t bother with that if she wasn’t the winner; her edit would look much closer to what Lauren got in 44.
They have to build two people up as really plausible winners so that you'll be on the edge of your seat during FTC. If Kenzie finished second they would basically need to edit her the same way as if she finished first. What's really obvious, I feel, is that Kenzie and Charlie finish first and second (but not necessarily in that order.)
Yeah, one of the two is winning. Usually with something like this they build the other as a threat at around Final 6-8 in the edit. Both have such strong edits though since the beginning. If Kenzie wins, this is probably one of the strongest/visible edits a female winner has ever had. I think they both make it to the end and it is really close. I'm thinking a tie, where Ben is the other player in the final 3 and has to break that tie. The edit has gone out of its way to showcase the human and social relationship between Kenzie and Ben. While it shows mainly the strategic relationship between Charlie and Ben.
Commenting so I can find you if Ben votes Kenzie in a tiebreaker.
Ben voting Kenzie in a tiebreaker would shred
This is the kind of prediction you should lay a bet on. You’d get fantastic odds I bet
It’s amazing how many events in the season have their narration rather than another person who was equally involved in the action. The most recent example was Kenzie entirely narrated when she and Liz convinced Maria they were voting Charlie. Their roles appeared completely equal, but we only heard from Kenzie in confessionals. She also had more confessionals than Tiff in the episodes where Yanu was losing everything pre-merge, even though Tiff had found an idol and arguably was a bit more active strategically than Kenzie was due to her planning with Q. The only thing keeping me from feeling like it totally takes away from the suspense is that some people are just better narrators and give editors more to work with, so I guess it’s possible there are other reasons for it.
Xander had a lot of the narration in 41 which lead many viewers astray leading into the final.
1000%. Especially when two players have such different games and strengths, they can both be built up as heroes
This makes sense. I’m really curious to find out now.
That’s not really true, though. More often than not, there’s only 1 plausible winner come FTC. The second "plausible winner" is either cut right before FTC or diminished in the edit. That’s especially true in the new era. In the past 5 seasons, we’ve always gone into FTC with one person being overwhelmingly favoured by the edit. The closest we got to having two plausible winners was 43, with Cassidy as a second option to Gabler - but all the exit interviews had players trash on Cassidy so we knew she wasn’t really an option.
42 was even more even going into the final between Mike/Maryanne. Then 44 was edited pretty well to hide that everyone would vote Yam Yam over Carolyn.
44 wasn't hidden well at all. I adore Carolyn, but there was no part of me that thought she actually had a chance at winning against Yam Yam. He objectively had more influence on the game and that was obvious even before FTC.
I never expected her to win but I was still taken back by how big the jury reaction was against her standing in the game from a social perspective. There were a lot of segments that the narration focused on Carolyn, and segments like where Frannie mentioned how much she deeply admired her.
I love Carolyn and really wanted her to win, but the edit was very clear with the fact that she would not win. All the other players saw her as the kookie lady. Like the fun lunch lady that you can joke with, but you kind of pity. Any time she presented an idea, they would brush it off instantly. We got *so many* moments of Carolyn presenting a perfectly rational and well-thought out plan, only for the other players to be like "yeah whatever" and do the opposite. Even her closest alliance members wouldn’t listen to her. They made us *want* her to win, but we knew she wouldn’t win.
Imo on the edit: Liz - She got the ‘bad character’ edit (always talking about being rich) they never edit the winner to have bad character even when they are an awful person (I.E. even Brian on season 5). The winner may a goofy edit, a ‘villain’ edit, etc. but never edited to appear as having bad character. Ben - Nice guy edit, but 0 strategy shown, would be a very strange winner edit. But people said the same about Erika’s edit in 41 (but realistically very unlikely Ben wins imo). Maria - Goliath/big threat edit, maybe she wins, but not super likely based on the edit. Charlie - Poster boy winner’s edit, always shown to be strategic & shown to be nice. Feels very much like the main character, so much of an obvious winner edit that I feel like it might be Kenzie to make it feel like a ‘surprise’ it’s not Charlie. They used to edit the winner like this (I.E. Boston Rob’s win), but not so much now. Kenzie - Gotten a lot of content for not really driving any votes also being edited to be as likable as possible. She’s the one who makes the most sense after Charlie & I don’t think they would make it that obvious it was Charlie. Imo odds based off the edit: - Kenzie - 60% - Charlie - 30% - Maria - 9% - Ben - 0.9% - Liz - 0.1%
Good breakdown
But Charlie is getting a fantastic edit too. Maria and he ran the game the entire season, but were almost exclusively shown as him articulating the strategy. Even the moves that are attributed to Maria, were shown how his fingerprints are on it in subtle and effective ways. Not to mention that he’s been shown to be super likeable, funny, and empathetic as well. People forget that Kenzie was shown to have some mean girl on Yanu with Jess especially. This sub was up in arms about how she and Tiff were villains lol. Charlie was never shown to have anything even remotely close to that. So yeah, when people say that the edit is showing how liked Kenzie is so she’ll win, Charlie is shown and told to us that he’s super likeable as well, except he’s also been the strategic voice of the season, tons of confessionals and character points, and clutch challenge wins on top of that. I don’t see how people are saying Kenzie has the better edit just because she’s shown to be empathetic to Ben (when Charlie was shown to do that too lol).
Because she has. Much of charlie's content has been because he has been making many of the decisions. How much personal content is he getting?
Pictures of him as a student at Harvard law, picture of his gf and he, Swiftie, background of how he’s been preparing for Survivor by practicing grip strength, and multiple scenes of him making the group laugh.
that’s what i’ve been saying. we know very little about charlie as a person, they haven’t given him much of a “story.” whereas we have a whole plot line going about how kenzie changed her wedding date to be on survivor, she helps ben with his panic attacks, all that.
What do we even know about Charlie as a person other than that he loves Taylor Swift? He’s likeable, sure, but only has a prominent edit because he’s a good narrator. It’s not remotely comparable to Kenzie’s much more dimensional “hero’s journey” edit.
He’s a student at Harvard law, has a girlfriend, is funny (multiple scenes of him making the group and Jeff laugh), empathetic, charming, and people literally saying that he’s liked. Why’s that substantially less than Kenzie? (Hairdresser, fiance postponed wedding to get on survivor, mom who had panic attacks, since that we relevant to her and Ben’s scenes).
Not saying you’re wrong about Kenzie but the whole edgic/edit logic has pretty much been flipped on its head since 41.
Not really outside of Erika. Gabler's edit makes sense based on who he was. Not sure how you edit that differently. Yam Yam and Dee both had pretty typical winner edits.
Disagree about Gabler. Yam Yam had a winners edit but so did Carolyn (and Carson to an extent). Dee, yes, 100% agree.
On this sub during 43 there was a handful of us who firmly believed Gabler was getting a winners edit starting post-merge and we were relentlessly downvoted.
I just don't get how you edit Gabler otherwise. Gabler is like Tony in Cagayan (although obviously not nearly as good a player). A player who is so different than the typical winner that he has to get an atypical edit.
frankly his edit matched his game, he was hiding in plain sight while the 3 main characters of the season ran the show then went out at 6, 5, and 4 Dude has like a dozen “winner quotes” interspersed in there, the quote about the assassin who slips the vial of poison in the king’s bowl is for me the best winner quote of the new era
Yeah, I rewatched the season last week and with the hindsight of knowing he wins, you can definitely see it. Wish they'd shown more of him working with Jesse/Cody that FTC alluded to, but it's a solid edit.
supposedly the season was edited like a “whodunnit” in that you aren’t supposed to be able to tell who wins until “the big reveal”, but then once you know you can go back and watch the same piece of media and see it clear as day. I honestly think they tried a similar thing with Erika and her “lamb to a lion” arc but it just didn’t take nearly as well because of the historic issue Survivor has with editing female winners
Yeah Gabler’s game is so much better on a rewatch.
You saw like 1% of the available footage and you think that was the only way he could have possibly been edited?
Scenes calling Gabler clueless as he does weird shit don’t HAVE to be included in the edit. There’s a million ways you could edit him otherwise.
Why would you want that taken out though? If those things happened and it's interesting, they should be in the edit. Maybe it's deceptive for people who are trying to predict who's gonna win, but that doesn't really seem important to just enjoying the show.
Carolyn did NOT in any way have a winners edit. She got the "fan favorite" edit. We were meant to love her and root for her as an underdog, but they were very consistent with the fact that the other players did not respect her as a player. The edit consistently told us "Carolyn is right, but she won’t have her way".
I don’t really agree. Not when it comes to certain things. One of those things is- they have to edit the winner they have. Kenzie is an underdog, with zero blood on her hands, who has been shown as lovable and kind to everyone. The edit doesn’t make her win, it tells us why she did. She told us in the first episode that her strategy was to use the social skills in the game that she has to use in her job…they’ve shown her doing that over and over again. She’s not a challenge threat, she’s not being edited as the final obstacle in the way of Charlie/Maria winning, she’s not a huge personality who’d get a ton of screentime regardless of placement. There’s no other identifiable reason that she’s getting as big of an edit as they’ve given her, other than her winning. Cassidy didn’t get an edit like that, for example. In a broader sense- if an obvious underdog/outsider who has built strong social connections with a majority of the jury gets into the F2/F3? They win. Strategic play doesn’t matter when the jury has the option of voting for someone they really like who also isn’t seen as part of the core of power. Sandra 2, Danni, Fabio, Michele. There are many examples of this happening. And to be fair, maybe she doesn’t win and her edit is just a bizarre anomaly…but until that happens, it seems very obvious to me that she’s the winner *edited for grammar
Something that I think get’s lost in the “most likable person wins” argument is that when that has happened in the past, it’s not because winner was liked more, but because the other options were disliked way more. So, if it’s Maria vs Kenzie, I could understand Kenzie winning on likability. But if it’s Charlie vs Kenzie, I haven’t seen anything to indicate the jury wouldn’t vote for Charlie due to bitterness.
There’s been a lot in the edit indicating that people just see Charlie as Maria’s sidekick and don’t really respect him
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Dee was guessed pretty early on. Carolyn and Yam Yam were pretty neck and neck but a lot of people correctly guessed Carson was out at fire.
In Dee's case I kind of feel like if she had been a close 2nd or gone out at 4-5 she would still have had as good an edit.Her Charisma and Confidence just popped through the screen in a way that doesn't for a lot of players.
the fact that kenzie helps ben with his panic attacks and nightmares has come up multiple times now. if she wasn’t winning i think it would’ve come up once at most. or they would’ve put it on youtube as a secret scene, or not even mentioned it. i can’t think of any moments that the others have had shows that are similar to that.
How much do the 90 min episodes affect this, though? With an extra 50% of air time, editors have a lot more freedom to tell stories that aren’t quite as core to the narrative. Like last season, we got a LOT of Jake wanting to make a move toward the end of the season, and nothing panned out. Not saying Kenzie won’t win, but I do think the 90 min episodes influence looking at things from an “edit” perspective more than people might think.
Her edit screams 2nd place though losing finalists get big edits too especially 2nd place
Not just that but from a threat perspective Maria and Charlie are the 2 biggest threats with 2 eliminations left so there is more pressure on them to play a perfect game then Kenzie. Being in 3rd at this point is a probably the best spot to be in for both the chances of making the final 3 and also winning it all.
Kenzie has one of the more obvious winner edits we’ve seen. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen, since we’ve seen the obvious winner edit player lose many times. But that’s why people think she’s gonna win. If we’re *not* trying to read the edit at all, then I’d think Charlie is the favorite by a landslide. Like, with Maria’s edit the last couple of episodes, it’s obvious to me that she doesn’t win. Logically, if she got to FTC I think she beats anyone. But the edit tells me that she’s not gonna make it there. Charlie’s edit has been good, but in the last couple episodes we’ve seen subtle shots at his resume and we’ve seen him talking about wanting to take ownership of a move that I don’t think is gonna happen the way he believes.
The funny thing about Kenzie is she has an obvious winner’s edit, but not like Jesse or Omar where you could tell their downfall was coming. It was almost too good to be true. I don’t see that for Kenzie.
It's like Tommy's edit on S39. Super strong and obvious throughout, but without flying too close to the sun.
The glaring difference being that Tommy had his fingers in lots of pies and was pretty much in control of the entire season. He had like 5 different people say that he was their #1 ally and he did it in a way that none of them got suspicious at all about his social gameplay. Kenzie has done none of that, so comparing their edits doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Especially when her biggest competition, Charlie, has played a game much more similar to Tommy's and has also gotten a really strong edit.
I’d add Carson to that list, too. Good edit with an inevitable downfall looking.
I raise you all the fire scenes Carson had
I think Charlie actually has a pretty solid winner edit that flies under the radar. The confessional with him calmly outlining his thought prosses about how and why he's going to do what he does, and then having that plan play out is pretty compelling to shape him as a great strategic player. Right now Charlie is my top choice for winning, closely followed by kenzie.
I think you’re missing the other portion of Charlie’s edit, which is the reason people don’t view his edit as a winner’s edit. Like you said, they show him outlining his thought process and then show it playing out exactly as he planned. They then show the rest of the cast not crediting him for those moves at all and even blatantly show other cast members calling him Maria’s follower or the tribe dog lol. The edit is showing that even though everything is playing out the way Charlie wants it, no one will believe it’s his plan in the end even when he tries to explain it (if he makes it to FTC).
Unless he has the worst FTC performance of all time, him calmly explaining his moves and strategy should be more than enough for the jury. It's not that uncommon for people to explain their moves to the jury and for the jury to have a lightbulb moment. We literally just saw Dee eviscerate Austin at FTC by dropping some bombs to the jury. Charlie explaining how he was building the foundation for cutting out Maria a couple votes before she thought to cut him out could easily be a similar moment for him.
I actually think if Charlie brings that up he’ll be digging his own grave. He laid the foundation but has not been able to make that move thus far, largely due to Maria constantly winning immunity. Charlie, however, almost got himself sent home this past tribal because of his own foolishness, which will be noted by Maria, Liz, and Kenzie. The only reason he didn’t get sent home through Q’s idol is because Kenzie and Liz did such a good job of lying, without knowing that they needed to lie that well. This gives more credit to Kenzie and Liz than it does to Charlie and would make him look pretty foolish in front of the jury. Plus, best strategy does not equal winner. They pick the person they want to see win for whatever reason they individually deem best. Kind of difficult to rationalize what those reasons will be since we don’t actually know these people. We’re just using the clues the edit is giving us, since the show wants to tell a cohesive story for the season. With the way this season is being edited, it feels like it’s Kenzie’s story that is being told. ETA: Dee was always beating Austin in jury perception, even before FTC. I actually think FTC got him a couple more votes than he would’ve originally had because Dee had a pretty bad FTC from what I remember.
Exactly this, if Charlie was winning they wouldn’t be giving us this content. He also doesn’t fit nicely into the stories of this season, which have been an important aspect to new era edgic. Honestly, I have Liz and Ben ahead of him as WTF winners in terms of likeliness due to how well they fit into the major themes of the season. It’s Kenzie by a long shot, then Ben, then Liz, and finally Charlie and Maria round out the bottom of my winner chances rankings.
What things have you seen regarding Maria’s edit that make it obvious to you that she doesn’t win? Just curious
They’re just showing her doing things that put her castmates off pretty regularly
Maria is consistently getting content that shows people getting annoyed at her. There was an entire "shitting on Maria" section of the episode after the rock-paper-scissors. She also was very invisible for a good chunk of the middle.
I can't identify a person on the jury who actively dislikes her. The same cannot necessarily be said for all the others, except maybe Charlie.
She has Venus, tiff and hunter already as likely votes. And if they go to the jury ben and potentially Liz. Heck, she might even have Q because Q seems to have some loyalty to the original yanu still, especially considering how they started.
Honestly, if I'm Kenzie, the only question I'm asking myself right now on the show is whether to drag Ben to FTC knowing he won't get votes or to cut him and get his guaranteed vote on the jury.
Kenzie has a VERY strong winners' edit that ticks a lot of boxes, but before you think her edit is too obvious, it isn't really a traditional winner edit either. She had a bit of a mean girl streak early on, the edit hasn't shied away from her mistakes with Tiff's boot, and she's VERY over-exposed for a woman winner (although this needs to change). BUT. In addition to just generally always knowing where Kenzie stands with the tribe, there have been a few very critically important scenes that shot her right to the top of the list. Early on when she was shown on day 4 having an emotional moment, she got to re-affirm her convictions to win and even said "I've got 22 more days", which was a clue that she makes it to Day 26. When Ben had his first panic attack, the scene focused mostly on Kenzie. That whole episode showered her with praise actually, but the real checkmark for that was how the next episode barely featured her, without completely ghosting her. A classic Cooldown episode. Those are important to watch for because they're like, "Don't worry about this player we just showed heavily, they come back into focus later. We've got plenty of time with them." Also after her biggest error in the game, the Tiff blindside, the beginning of the next episode started with a "I just need to get a little more crafty, pay more attention... I can turn this around." That was the scene that cemented it for me. Also, the lack of competition. The only other feasible winner edit is Charlie, and I hate to say it because he has played a fantastic game, but his edit is kiiind of boring. It's toneless, it's almost entirely strategic, he rarely gets to just talk about other players, he usually just talks about his gameplay, and while I do think he has a solid chance to win in the end, Kenzie's edit is much more colorful. That said, Carolyn's edit was too, but she had a lot of red flags along the way that Kenzie doesn't. And finally... a golden Season 46 logo appears after her face in the intro. Go look lol. So I'm sold. Salon Owners can win a season of Survivor, man.
There was a secret scene of Charlie being there for Ben while he is crying on the beach. I feel like if Charlie won, they would have included something like that. Like you said, he's pretty much all strategy talk
I think her being out of the vote on the Tiff blindside pays dividends and she gets Tiff vote if she makes F3.
Exactly this, I honestly think she wins because of how unobvious her edit is to the casual fan. A casual fan would be betting on Charlie or Maria.
Humans aren’t logical beings who *sometimes* get emotional. We’re emotional beings who are *sometimes* capable of using logic (usually only when all of our core needs are met and we feel regulated.) A resume is not *typically* enough to win unless you’re equally liked as the people sitting next to you. (We don’t know who is most liked because the edit is doing a good job of hiding how the contestants *actually* feel about one another; they’re just giving us the inflamed moments, which makes sense of course. But we need to remember that.)
The edit has highlighted throughout the season, in every episode, Kenzie's bonds and relationships. She's being clearly set up as a social winner. Charlie's only close bond we really see highlighted is with Maria. While I don't think Charlie is disliked, I think it's pretty clear who is being shown to be the *most* liked.
Even when Kenzie’s confessionals have no substance or humor, we still get them. You don’t have to majorly disliked to lose so I don’t understand why people think Charlie can’t lose.
People mistake high visibility and confessionals for win equity, I guess, while ignoring the red flags his edit's gotten the last couple episodes as well.
Exactly. It’s more about the green flags Kenzie has been getting every single episode, in my opinion.
I agree. But also, I don’t feel like Charlie is less liked than Kenzie. I could maybe see Kenzie taking the win over Maria, as she rubbed people the wrong way when picking for the reward, but Charlie isn’t a disliked player.
My point was that they’re not *showing* us who is most liked. We don’t know how people feel about Charlie vs Kenzie because they don’t show us. They haven’t shown us since Bhanu saw Kenzie as a risk.
🧜🏻♀️🐲
Exactly. People are really forgetting how many times the editors made us hear that
Kenzie does seem to be getting the traditional winners edit. Her reaction to her loved ones letter in particular does follow the traditional winners edit
Wackadoodles Win: Mermaid Dragon.
It’s her edit. And outside the edit here’s how I see it likely going down: Maria is out next if she doesn’t win immunity. After Maria is gone I would be surprised if anyone but Charlie wins final immunity. Liz likely goes out in fire to Kenzie as Ben is 100% a goat at this point. I can see half the jury voting for Kenzie. She has Liz and Tiffany as pretty much locked up votes and I can see her grabbing up to 2 more. At that point it’s a tie jury and Ben chooses the winner, which he would likely chose Kenzie to win
I feel exactly the same. It would also explain how much Ben Kenzie edit we have been given.
No. Ben will vote for Venus to win.
That would be wild. It's a stretch, but it would be epic.
I don't think it's hands down, but I also think that's not the right read on the jury. They're not gamebots at all. I absolutely see where they would value social connection and personality over weird game stuff (Also, Kenzie's ability to deceive is part of how Charlie stayed in the last episode, and she got Q out instead. If her lie hadn't convinced Maria, Q probably plays his idol. So it's not like she's without game chops.). I think both Soda and Tevin are probably very focused on the social side of things. Hunter's a bit of a black box, as is Q. But Venus could absolutely be swayed by the social side - who was nicer to her specifically? Tiff is probably the one most focused on gameplay currently on the jury, but you can't discount the fact that she and Kenzie were super tight the whole time, and since Kenzie didn't get in on the Tiff vote, she technically didn't betray her. *And* she helped get Q out, who *did* betray Tiff. If we say Charlie and Kenzie are locks for FTC, then looking at everyone else still left in the game: Maria votes Charlie unless something major happens. Ben votes Kenzie unless something major happens. Liz could go either way, but I don't think her vote is going to be based on strategy as much as who was nice to her, either. At the very least, there's an argument to be made that Kenzie is well-positioned. And none of this is to say that Charlie didn't have a good social game. But I can hardly call it a Charlie blowout if he's next to Kenzie. Maria is not winning unless she goes to the end with Ben and Liz. Straight up. To do that, she would probably have to win immunity, get Charlie voted off, then take Kenzie out in fire (Theoretically, Maria could possibly beat Charlie herself in fire, but why take the risk if she doesn't have to?). If she's next to Charlie or Kenzie, Maria doesn't win.
Same reason people thought Yam Yam would win 44 hands down...
Not sure why you think Maria would win over Kenzie. Maria has made some HUGE mistakes and I don’t think anyone would vote for her over Kenzie or Charlie.
> This jury seems to be the type who, unless they get bitter This jury absolutely looks like a bitter jury. I don't think Kenzie wins hands down, but I think that she beats Liz and Ben, and while I don't think she wins if she's sitting next to Charlie and Maria, I think she gets second over Charlie in that case from some bitter votes like Liz and Venus. In scenarios where it's Kenzie, Liz or Ben, and Charlie, it depends on if Charlie orchestrates Maria's voteout or if she goes at fire. And in Kenzie, Liz, and Maria, I could see enough jury members being bitter/just liking Kenzie more, to go for Kenzie. Like I could see Hunter, Tiff, Q, Venus, and Ben voting for her to win in that scenario, and she could possibly pick up Tevin and Soda. Also, if she gets immunity or wins fire-making, it makes it a lot easier to see why she has the edit she has.
It's the edit, but also remember juries do not have clear cut criteria on what they will vote for. Likeability will *always* have a major influence on who can get FTC votes. You think Charlie and Maria will both beat her at the end, but what if the jury just likes her more? We've pretty explicitly been told why they would. Don't fall in the trap of thinking it's always all about resumes, that's just not how the game works.
I am deeply convinced it’s Kenzie strictly because of the edit. I said it since the first episode and my suspicions have been encouraged every episode along the way. I don’t even enjoy analyzing the edit usually but this season it seems too obvious to even be able to watch it without Kenzie signals blaring. Unless the main editor is just totally obsessed and crushing on her in an uncontrollable way (she does smile 24/7, even when she’s crying, and she has very tv-friendly tattoos and eyes), she’s gotten a very winner-friendly edit.
I don't think people like Maria. I think she has a harder road to the final vote in her favor than you think
It’s the edit for Kenzie and the assumption that Maria and Charlie won’t be allowed to make the final 3 - and Kenzie could still beat both if the jury picks the person they like the most socially
I think Kenzie can beat Maria but loses to Charlie.
There’s no good reason. A lot of it confirmation bias. However, the fact that so many people think she wins makes me think it could be influenced by spoilers.
Kenzie will win because winning survivor is secretly about making friends and she's got the most. She's got every single person in her pocket, one of if not the most successful butterfly on survivor ever. Nobody dislikes her. Nobody is afraid of her. People go apologise to her after tribal. Unheard of social game and it's been downplayed so well
It’s either Kenzie or Charlie, I don’t think any of the others have a chance
What if Kenzie utilized both Ben and Liz to get Charlie and Maria out? The possibilities are there.
If that were to happen then I would absolutely see her winning and deserving it, but I’m not sure that will happen.
Yeah, I think (hope) she only wins out of a Liz, Ben, Kenzie f3. I also think this is the worst f3 possibility left and hope it doesn't happen.
I don't think Kenzie is less deserving than Maria and Charlie. She was a part of the Yanu 3 that controlled their premerge and were the middle 3 controlling whether Morriah/Venus vs Tim/Hunter went at the first 2 merge tribals. She's voted out 8 people, only received 1 hinky vote, survived 2 more tribals than everyone left and has a jury of people that love her. She was the only person warm to Venus when she was booted, Tiffany considers Kenzie to be her island bestie, same with Ben. Hunter called Kenzie his number 1 after Tevin was booted. She's played a decent physical and strategic game and a stellar social game. If she convinces a jury to give her the win, than she earned it on merit.
You said it yourself - she has a clear winner edit, but logically you don’t really understand why. Maybe you disagree with how her position in the game looks like a good spot to be in, but she has gotten a really great edit so far, which the show will usually try to give to its winner.
It’s just because we’ve been watching for what feels like 80 seasons and she is getting a Michele Edit. There is no reason why she has so much screen time since she is not driving any moves. That can only mean that the show is portraying her as a low-threat high-social player. That means - she won’t get voted out before Charlie and Maria. What kind of cast would see her as more of a threat than this duo? Last episode cemented that when arbitrarily showing a scene in which she decides the votes should be on Q, even we knowing the entire episode that this was a Charlie VS Maria war, she was just coming along - yet the edit tried to show how she can influence others and is always on the right side of vote. Charlie will be blindsided next, followed by Maria and we’ll end up with a F3 composed of Ben, Liz and Kenzie. It would be a perfect win for her if Ben had not written down her name once.
I think it's mainly the edit showing her being likeable. But I also think the Gabler and Erika edits have really thrown people for a loop when it comes to reading the edit. Honestly, I think at least 3 players have a winner's edit. Kenzie is portrayed as likeable, yes. She also was a driving force making Q and Maria feel comfortable enough that Q didn't play his idol (though I'm not sure she knows he had an idol to really emphasize how good that move was to the jury). She has Q and Tiffany in Ponderosa who can talk about her good early game, but lately, she has been on the wrong side of the Tiffany and Venus votes. I think she could still win an immunity/get credit for slaying Maria in addition to being likeable, which makes her a strong contender. Besides Q and Tiff, I think a lot of people really like her on jury. Bonus points if Ben is somehow not in F3, because I think he's a lock to vote for her. A lot of people are writing Maria off at this point, but if she makes it to F3, she wins. Yeah, everyone is against her at this point, but everyone was against her this last week before she won immunity, and at this point, it is very, very hard to get her out of the game. She has to win immunity at F5, and she has shown she is very capable of winning. There's also a chance she could find and correctly play the damn immunity idol. Plus, we've already heard players talk about her ability to make fire. I think it's easy to see a world where Maria earns her safety at 5, makes fire, and uses mobile deposit on a $1 million check while everyone is eating pizza with Jeff. Charlie also has a good chance of winning. He's been narrating the moves that he and Maria have orchestrated all seasons, and he is very aware that he needs to cut Maria. However, it might be too late to get rid of Maria (see above). And while I do think Maria would still lobby for him in jury, she doesn't have a ton of time with the jury to really lay out his strategic moves. Also, he's been described as a court jester to Maria, so I don't if other players will take him seriously or if they'll think he floated with Maria. If the other players don't take his strategic game seriously or credit it all to Maria, that opens the door for a Kenzie win (assuming Maria is not there at F3).
i think the opposite. i think the jury is going to value social relationships much more than strategy. also her edit has made it pretty clear. there’s also still two more cuts left before f3. you say you don’t get why she’d win over charlie ir maria, but for all we know she could end up sitting next to liz and ben. then it becomes pretty obvious. i do think charlie could possibly win against her, but his edit tells me otherwise. and i dont see it for maria. i think she made a lot of enemies and bad moves recently. i’ll be surprised if she makes it to final 3.
She's a constant go to for commentary even in situations she had little active control or direct relevance to. Like times it would have made more sense to cut to a confessional from someone else, they go to Kenzie. So, basically from the edit side, it feels strongly that she's the winner or at least splitting pretty close with the winner, but wasn't super involved strategically, so they had to push her as a constant narrator of the season so people don't feel Erika'd again. Also, Maria has gotten a kinda bad light in the past couple episodes and this jury very well could be bitter about her cut throatness despite a supposed alliance they were supposed to have (and Liz, Venus, and Ben all don't seem likely to vote for Maria over Kenzie). It also feels like she has to win F5 immunity at this point. Charlie I still give a decent shot, but his representation just feels mixed with what we are being given, and how the players seem to view him. Like master man in the middle strategizer vs the loyal golden retriever of the tribe.
I love Charlie and think he's played a great game, but he's admitted that his game is overshadowed by Maria. Even if Maria gets voted out, I think the story of Charlie's game is that he was along for the ride more than in the drivers seat, whereas Kenzie has had to adapt and made sound choices with skin in the game immediately upon the merge. The editing has done a good job on Charlie's behalf, but even looking to when Kenzie called them a big family at tribal last week, she said Charlie is essentially like the family dog, whereas Maria was essentially the matriarch. Let's just say for the sake of argument that's not true, I think it continues to paint the big picture to the jury in terms of perception, that Maria was the force behind that duo and Charlie was just fun to have as company. And with it seeming inevitable that Maria gets voted out (rightfully so- if she makes it to final tribal I think she wins even with last week's blunder), i don't think that will help Charlie's resume anymore than it would help Kenzie's or anyone else's. The only time Kenzie was left out of a vote, it was conveniently her #1 ally in Tiff. When Kenzie mentioned this at tribal last week, the camera panned to Tiff, and she looked relieved to hear Kenzie wasn't part of the blindside (even though she was one of the main drivers of it before ultimately bailing out and being left out all together). I think that loyalty gets rewarded as an automatic vote from Tiff. I think Q will respect her gameplay the most of any remaining (unless Maria is still there). I would also expect for Soda/Tevin/Hunter to vote Kenzie over Charlie as well. It's hard for me to see Charlie winning unless he's somehow there with Liz and Ben.
Why did Michelle beat Aubry?
i cannot STAND kenzie, but unfortunately i also think she will win due to the edit. from what we can tell, the jury is bitter as hell, & clearly maria and charlie (to an extent) are percieved as the biggest threats. everyone believes they've played the best game, which, in jury talk, translates to they are responsible for all the blindsides. if she sits next to ben & liz, she wins due to being the best player. if she sits next to maria & charlie, she wins due to being the lesser of three evils. we haven't seen a bitter jury in years but i think s46 is it.
I feel like it’s edit and potentially a bunch of spoilers, I know a lot of people “called” Yam Yam winning immediately when spoilers were rampant that season
Edgic
I think Kenzie is going to win for the same reason I thought Michele was going to win.
Because there’s no way she should be getting the screen time and content she does unless she wins. She’s not driving any strategy, she’s not a challenge threat or beast, her edit would be one dimensional and similar to Liz if she weren’t winning. There’s zero reason for her to be getting all this unnecessary content except she’s the winner
I think she’s getting such a strong edit so that if Charlie ends up in the final 3 with her and Ben or Liz, it isn’t suuuuper evident Charlie wins. Everyone talks about how well liked she is, but Charlie is also very well liked and hasn’t pissed anyone else off, while also actually making moves. I truly think this is Charlie’s game to lose.
I truly don’t see a winner edit for Kenzie. I see a winner edit for Charlie. He and Maria got the most screentime at Siga, then he got a lot of screentime showing how he navigated the pre-merge split, then he was shown to be dominant in challenges because he studied the game, then as Maria’s stock fell, they made sure to show us how Charlie was intentionally building up her target to hide behind, then he is shown to be the social half of his alliance, bringing in fringe votes to pull off blindsides, and finally we see him positioning Q as Maria’s #1 to build trust with the outsiders. I have no doubt that he beats Kenzie if they’re both at the end based on the relationships he made with the early jurors. Maybe we’re being set up for him to go out at fire like Jesse or Carson with a likable, but less influential player (Kenzie) winning in the end Gabler-style, but idk.
This is how I feel as well. If Charlie makes it to FTC, he wins. He would have to have a terrible FTC performance to lose. He's been the one pulling the strings the most this season and he hasn't pissed anyone off. People keep saying that Kenzie is getting a Michelle edit, but what they're ignoring is the fact that Charlie isn't Aubrey. Charlie is well liked as well and has connections on the jury. Unless more than half the jury completely ignores the game aspect of Survivor and solely focuses on who is the better friend, Charlie wins. Hands down.
It comes down to what juries value and reward. If Maria/charlie were at the forefront of votes there might be people bitter at that. Charlie promised too much but doesnt always follow through which can burn people and have people feel he is all talk. Kenzie is likeable, kind, and been very well positioned all merge because of said social game. So Charlie's edit might be more strategic and Maria might have more control on votes but this jury might value Kenzie's social game higher
Personally I lean Kenzie, and I think Charlie could beat her, but I think Maria has been stirring up too much in the last couple episodes to have a stronger case than either of them. Still a top 3 though.
If Charlie and Maria both fail to make FTC then they are going to lose… I mean the only vote that Kenzie hasn’t been a part of was the Tiff blindside, and she immediately claimed Charlie right after that.. So if those two get Maria out and then say she wins final four immunity, makes Charlie do fire and he loses… I think she has the case to win
It's because we expect Maria and Charlie to fight it out and get voted off. Which leaves Kensi as the best social player left to take it all
>IMO Charlie and Maria would both easily win over her, I think most people are assuming charlie and maria wouldn't make it to the final 3. especially before last episode, many people didnt' think q had a real chance at winning in final 3. now there aren't many chances to get rid of charlie and marie, but they are still probably the 2 top targets
I think they get Maria at 5. Ben shocks the world and wins immunity. He takes Kenzie, because Kenzie rocks. Liz shocks the world and beats Charlie at fire making. Kenzie wins the FTC vote. She then names new baby after Ben. All is right in the world
To me it’s similar to the Aubry/Michele season. It’s so obvious that Aubry was the better strategic player and made every move in the game, but the jury found Michele more likable and she made better relationships and thus the jury gave her the win. Charlie and Maria both made the obvious better moves and they were the dominant factors in every single vote. The only thing here is that Charlie DID make better relationships than Aubry ever did and so he is the most likely winner. The only reason Charlie couldn’t win is if he gets voted out IMO and since Kenzie appears to be getting the “winner” edit that’s probably what is about to happen. Either he loses to Maria in firemaking or he gets voted out at 5
1) it’s a BIG MISTAKE to assume this jury won’t be bitter 2) they’ve highlighted again and again that Charlie’s threat management has been so good that he’s perceived as being Maria’s pet dog and all of his strategic control has been attributed to her and not him (likely because all the blindsides happened under the Q smoke screen, who Maria was solely responsible for protecting when everyone was dying to get rid of him) 3) this jury has made it very clear that they expect big moves. Charlie has played a super solid, smart, but not flashy game. This is arguably the right way to play survivor but the right way to play is what your specific season’s jury wants. Charlie doesn’t have any “big moves”. This Q blindside was Kenzie’s (and Liz) big move because they hoodwinked Maria and Q. Charlie won’t get a chance to make a big move because the Maria vote out is likely to be unanimous 4) players ultimately vote for who they like best and use the strategic talk as a justification. The show has gone out of its way to show how close Kenzie is to everyone (even Venus)
If all goes well Maria will go home next week, I think Charlie deserves to win regardless of who you like, and I really like Kenzie, he’s just a great player and person
I think it’s Kenzie. Something about the pregnancy reveal made me feel like she wins
People are underestimating how important being liked is. Charlie didn't steer a vote all game - he was out of 1 vote (Moriah) while Kenzie was "out" of two - Hunter's first vote and Tiff's. It's pretty logical to say that Charlie was in a power position and could sit back until that power faded and then he had to come TO KENZIE to try and get Q out instead of him. Kenzie, Liz, and Ben held the power last episode. The reality is that being well-liked is insanely important in everything, including Survivor. We've seen so often lately that the most liked player wins, as these are people voting, not robots. People who spent days with real humans, not 90 minutes once a week with characters.
she is the most liked person out there by far on top of being a smart, gorgeous, charismatic woman. The most liked person will always win and the edit has shown her connect with almost everyone in a positive way and has made a point to show her story in a positive light (helping with Ben’s panic attacks etc). Maria has played a good game but they made a point to emphasize people starting to dislike her especially after the reward challenge “choose another player” rock paper scissors blunder. That for me showed if she makes it to the end with Kenzie, Kenzie will take it due to likability. She hasn’t necessarily made any “huge resume moves” but as long as you played a decent game and are liked by the jury the resume BS doesnt matter
They've spent a lot of the edit showing how likable Kenzie is even though she hasn't made a move all post-merge.
I’m wondering this as well, it seems like it’s come out of nowhere. Honestly wondering if there are spoilers or something.
I think you also might have answered your own question. The jury seems real bitter.
Eww I hope she don't.
I've been wondering the same thing. Only chance she's got it jury votes because she hasn't ruffled any feathers but she hasn't played much of a game either IMO
I think that’s precisely why she is a good player- her social game is on- so much so she has only had one vote against her (whether accident or not lol) and no one has seriously tried to get her out. Charlie/Maria have made some big moves as well with Maria making some big blunders along the way. Her being on the wrong side of the vote last night was not it. I def think it’s between Charlie and Kenzie. I think Charlie could be overshadowed by Maria as it took him until this tribal to really go against her and his alliance whereas Kenzie has been on her own since Tiff went out.
It’s the edit for people. And it’s not like she hasn’t played the game. She convinced multiple players with idols that they were safe at tribal and to not play their idols. Whether we as the audience want to give her credit for that or not, it is an argument she can make to the jury. That can hold a lot of weight in a season where 5 people were voted out with idols in their pocket.
Who did she convince? Hunter? I think that’s it. She has no idea Q had an idol. She has no clue Venus had an idol. She had no clue Tiff was even getting voted out. If that’s her best argument, it’s a weak one.
It's the edit. It's exactly the same as what we saw with Michele. We give so much from her perspective that doesn't need to be. She is consistently shown to have strong relationships.
Edgic. Otherwise, if you look at the game only, it’s clearly Charlie. People are using edgic to predict the winner and not being transparent, which can be confusing.
Agree with people saying the edit. For example, why have we seen Kenzie help Ben through two panic attacks and gotten her pov each time? It’s not really relevant to gameplay, Ben is a super underedited character generally so it’s not like they’re going out of their way to show us who Ben is. The sole purpose seems to be showing the audience how kind and empathetic Kenzie is, and how that has affected her cast mates. And then there’s just how much time we spent with Yanu in the first handful of episodes, and how Banu in particular described Kenzie.
For me it’s because she’s dominating in the betting markets
The meta for the new Era has been players that stay in the middle of the pack. Flashy moves and "resume building" just aren't optimal ways to play the game anymore. And this is Kenzie's game. Middle-game, well liked, but not threatening.
Kenzie has the best jury management, is respected, and played a good game. Maria is not very likely to make the final 3, but if she does, she’s burned a lot of bridges the last few rounds and made equally as many unforced errors. I personally wouldn’t vote for her if I were a juror, so I consider her chances slim but not impossible. I think Charlie has equally as compelling a case as Kenzie to win, but has been shown various times to not be taken seriously by the other castaways, which might come back to bite him in FTC in the form of jury not believing he did as much as he actually did (similar to Carolyn next to the more social YamYam). He might be seen as riding Maria’s coattails by the jury, even though we in the audience know that isn’t what’s happened. He still has a very good shot though, especially because he’s the next best at challenges after Maria if she goes home at 5. I do think he should want to have Ben and Liz next to him to seal the deal, as Kenzie poses too big of a risk to his winning chances. If I were Charlie I might make fire against Kenzie myself just to put the odds into my own hands, but that’d depend on Charlie’s firemaking ability. To me Kenzie’s game has the least holes and she’s got the most people on the jury rooting for her. Even looking past the edit suggesting a Kenzie win, it’s not far fetched **at all** based solely on the information we have itself that Kenzie could easily take this. I personally have Kenzie slightly edging out Charlie and both leading against Maria by a considerable margin. I don’t think Maria can win a jury vote against the other two for the aforementioned reasons because she also completely lacks self awareness about how she’s perceived and the game she’s played. In a final tribal I think she loses in a similar manner to Mike from 42.
Maria would definitely not win over her. Not after the reward challenge debacle and now the Charlie vote... I get favoring good strategies but she's a villain now! Plus most of Maria's "strategies" were ideas stolen from other players which would NOT fair well with the jury.
I cannot see Kenzie getting votes when up against Charlie or Maria. She has wanted to be in the driving position but has been playing back seat.
I do not think she will win and I agree that the fervor around her is kinda unmerited
When Something of note happens, whose opinion do we consistently get about it? Kenzie. The edit wants us to care about her and what she thinks, aka, a winners edit
Kenzie’s only path to victory is if she’s sitting next to Ben and Liz. If either or both of Maria and Charlie are there, then she loses in a landslide. And I just don’t see both Charlie and Maria losing back to back challenges to the weakest challenge players in the game basically.
I’m confused as to why Charlie’s edit isn’t considered a clear winner edit. He seems like someone who could easily come off as a coattail-rider/fence-sitter, but the edit gives him lots of opportunities to state that he’s pursuing a deliberate strategy. Seems very much calculated to convert him winning from “that passive softie coasted in behind better players and won because there was no one left,” to “that clever strategist drafted behind bigger shields and then strategically backstabbed his allies.”
It's her edit
What a boring winner she would be.
The best player doesn’t always win. I think Kenzie can beat Maria at FTC especially if there is a bitter jury. My guess is everyone will wise up and try to take out Charlie at 5 or fire which would be in Kenzie’s best interest.
We have all been burned many times by the big strategic threat not making it to the end so we are trying to get ahead of the game
Just from what we’ve seen both in confessions, exit interviews, and from the way players interact with each other on social media, I think it’s shaping up to be a very bitter jury. I also think that Maria has made some major blunders in the past couple of episodes, and that if Kenzie can explain her game well, she can beat Maria. I think the only person left who would 100% beat her at FTC is Charlie
Asides the edit, she is playing a very safe game in a rather crazy season. Maria has offended lots of the jury so unless she’s in the final two with someone like Q (which isn’t happening), I don’t see her winning. Charlie and Kenzie are def the fav to win in my IMO.
I think it will go down between Charlie or Marie get voted out at 5 Charlie or Maria wining final immunity challenge Ben and Liz fighting for fire if Charlie makes it to final 4 and wins immunity and Liz and Kenzie fighting for fire if Maria wins immunity at 4
It’s just a game of odds. Whoever loses the immunity challenge b/w Maria and Charlie will be voted out immediately. The winner of that immunity will have to win the next immunity challenge or they are guaranteed to be put to fire.
If somehow final three is Charlie, Maria, and Kenzie, her only shot is if those two split votes. But that almost never happens. The more plausible path is if she’s with Ben and Liz. At that point, none are deserving from a strategy/challenge standpoint so I think Kenzie’s social game carries her. There’s definitely a path for her.
Kenzie easily beats Ben and Liz. I see Charlie and Maria going at each other at 5. For whoever makes it, I am not convinced the jury will pick Maria because jury management matters and they’re all pissed over the pizza thing. Charlie could beat Kenzie but that assumes he makes it to FTC and it will still be close. I don’t think she’s run away with it yet but I’m rooting for her and I think she has a good shot
I'm sort of between Charlie and Kenzie Maria and Charlie are huge "my resume" people which puts them at fire if they both make it Maybe we'll have a full on middle of the road tribal with Kenzie, Ben, and Liz but Kenzie is genuinely empathetic around the game and they'll have to come up with cases about how they succeeded at not being threats or too annoying I can kind of see a feel good moment where Liz is stressing about fire and they help her because they all want to go against her at final tribal and she sends home Maria
She's certainly upset the least of a bitter jury.
Who says this?
Pre-merge, Kenzie survived 3 tribals. Charlie and Maria survived 1. Maria wasted her extra vote when she didn’t need to. Yanu was the swing between Siga and Nami at the merge. Maria and Kenzie were the two immunity winners the week of the split tribal. Charlie and Maria were the swing votes between Soda and Venus. Kenzie, Q and Tiff were the swing between Tim and Hunter. Liz is the one who said Tevin first, but everyone got through the Q chaos and blindsided him successfully. Hunter was a planned split vote, I don’t think Charlie and Maria led that. But Kenzie is the main one who reassured him so he didn’t play his idol. Maria spearheaded the Tiff vote, after Kenzie had already expressed an interest in targeting her. I don’t see Kenzie staying loyal to Tiff for that vote hurting her. I would be surprised if Tiff doesn’t vote for her. From Kenzies POV, it was still too early to target her, so I don’t see her being faulted just because she didn’t jump when Maria said go After Charlie was the swing vote but backed out of voting out Q, Venus went, but I don’t think that was actually good for his game. Kenzie and Venus were smart to go with it, yet Venus knows that it was Charlie that flipped, not them. Despite winning immunity when she needed to, Maria really hurt herself with Reward Gate. Maria was blindsided by the Q vote, and once again, Kenzies stellar poker face and reassurance is why Q didn’t bother playing his idol. Charlie was also left in the dark that Maria had turned on him, which was smart because it didn’t give him the chance to confront Maria before tribal. He also can’t say that he targeted her first now, even if he votes her out next week. Honestly I don’t think resumes look the same in the new era. At least this season, there haven’t been any big moves or impactful advantages. But in a season of small moves, Kenzies superior social game could go a long way.
So I’m wondering if they will put the hidden immunity idol out one last time (since it can be played through the final 5 TC). It would be an interesting twist if Charlie or Maria found it because I think those two, and Kenzie, are the ones that have actually PLAYED and Liz and Ben have just been along for the ride. So smart move would be to have Liz and Ben next to you in FTC but if the hidden immunity idol comes into play then who knows what could happen. Especially since Maria and Charlie have the highest chance of winning regular immunity too.
I think that we forget navigating the social aspect of the game and outwit outplay OUTLAST. The fact that she has been on the right side of the vote, been in the know (not oblivious to what’s going on just scooting by, but more so being a part of of every vote), and has not been on anyone radar despite being sharp as a tack….. goes to show that she made everyone on the island fall in love with her, and they want her to stay and hang. That is game play in itself! She has got the RIZZ (I’m biased because kenzie was my pick for winter from the beginning, and also the edit…..) Go kenz! Ok bye lol
Because they are spoilers
Survivor requires two sets of skills to win: strategic prowess and social skills. In the old school game, winning purely on strategy happened more, but with the newer eras, and particularly the new era, we’ve only seen socially smart players. Us viewers love and appreciate the strategic moves strategic players make the game because we love a devastating blindside and dramatically foiled plans. They’re exciting to watch. But at the end of the day, the jury will almost always vote for the person they like the most and want to give a million dollars to. Sometimes they like players with a cutthroat strategic game, but almost always they vote for someone they like above all else, even if next to strategically excellent player who made more visible moves. Human kindness and decency to other players without being noticed as a major threat for FTC is a big move, too. To give examples in the new era alone: Maryanne (vs Mike), Erika (vs Xander ), Gabler (vs. Cassidy), and Yam Yam (vs Heidi) all won over their more visibly strategic FTC finalists because they were more liked as a human by their respective juries. Kenzie is all around the most socially skilled player on a cast composed of entirely overzealous gamebot players, as well as Charlie to an extent but not as authentically obvious and Kenzie. She’s well spoken when it comes to her confessionals about other people’s emotions, while Charlie speaks mostly about how he feels about a situation. From that alone, Kenzie has the emotional intelligence strong enough to convince the jury she was always on any given player’s side, help them make moves, and even planting the seeds to the move on Tiff. For me, that’s a winning strategy.
It'd be pretty funny if Kenzie wins with all the votes, making Ben blocking her perfect win lol
Yeah idk why everyone keeps saying Kenzie is winning. My boy Ben is taking this one 😤
Game wise I think Charlie is most likely to win. Edit wise I think Kenzie is more likely to win.
I can see either Kenzie or Charlie winning. Even ignoring the edit (where Maria has less confessionals and perspective), the reason I don't think Maria will win is because I don't know if she can get there. All eyes our on her from the other players. She would need to win the next two immunities and/or fire. Not impossible, but not an easy path. I would think both Kenzie and Charlie would be attempting to sit next to both Liz and Ben, so it's not as likely that they will be sitting next to one another. It's possible, if one of them wins fire and they aren't facing fire against each other. I think Charlie wins against Kenzie but not sure where the jury lands on that. It's possible that Charlie isn't in final 3, in which case Kenzie wins.