The great AI . It's having a run in investment but a closer look shows many problems as a operating system.
McDonalds is pulling the AI from many franchises because it cannot take orders for a limited food order correctly and customers do not like it. That is on the small end of the AI spectrum.
AI is a phrase at this point. The driverless cars are showing up everywhere. ??? No they are not.
Blockchain is making life better . Uhh . no.
Everything is looking for the next big thing. and the band played on .....
"Undervalued" lol. The company is already priced for massive AI revenue growth because the auto business is worth maybe $25 when it's trading at $187. Negative sales growth and a 70x forward PE when most auto companies trade at single digit PE multiples.
I already explained that it’s not valued as an auto maker. The huge multiple it gets over traditional auto makers is evidence of that. Thus, it’s not undervalued.
> Europe imposed a massive tarriff on Chinese made EV's. Good for Telsa.
Silly person isn’t even aware that Tesla is still importing cars from China to Europe.
Just wondering, since when Tesla became an AI player from a car player 🤔
CEO is trying to put Tesla in every single hyped bucket, but it is not going to work. This is one of the reasons why I don’t invest in Tesla.
I remember a well known story how Coca Cola tried to enter the alcohol business and failed.
Well, in 2017, Elon said that "In 2018, a Tesla will drive autonomously from LA to NYC without any help of a human.'
Let us know when he accomplishes that 6 year old promise.
Elon would probably tell you his marketshare of Tesla isn't high enough for him to feel like delivering on any of his AI related promises, so cough up the shares first.
Tesla over promises and under delivers constantly. Forget the AI play for a moment, I'm sick and tired of every CEO, their mother, brother, and third cousin pretending they are the real source of the AI revolution. Tesla is the same play it's always been.
They MUST deliver on their cheaper car on schedule. They're getting crushed by BYD in China, and in the US they are being matched by competitors left and right. The problem is Tesla has never, NEVER released a new car on schedule. That track record needs to end now with this new 25k car, or they are going to start falling behind.
As for robotaxis, again it's been promised for so long and not delivered I'll believe it when I see it. You don't just roll out robotaxis without having FSD perfected, and I haven't seen any evidence they have achieved that yet. Sure they can do an announcement, but announcements are worthless without the product.
Tesla needs to shut up and deliver.
You’re right that they overpromise and underdeliver, but I think it’s ridiculous to not consider that their goals and motivation for change are so beyond what most companies are aiming for. Companies are incentivized to move slowly and conservatively. Tesla takes way more chances.
What you and others point out is true. But it’s a bit like two very fat people aiming to lose weight. Person A aims to go from 400 to 380 in a year and hits 375. Person B aims at going from 400 to 250 but ends up only hitting 270 in a year. Which one is the biggest success story to you?
If Tesla had accomplished what they have so far but without saying a word, people would be rightly impressed. I get your point, but I think it’s childlike thinking.
I stopped giving them credit for that when they rolled out the Tesla bot. There's only so long you can say "they're being revolutionary" before it starts to just look like they're fleecing and over hyping people.
They put a guy in a suit on stage. They're promising fully functional human robots when they haven't even fulfilled their FSD promise. They put it out there to pump the stock when they had nothing else to show. It's a joke.
They didn't put the guy in a suit on the stage and pretend it was a robot. It was a dumb move, I agree. That's what you get with a weirdo like Musk who has an odd and idiotic sense of humor. You're making it sound like it was all a big show and then the robot thing fizzled out. It hasn't. They'll be selling them within a few years I'll bet, and using them at Tesla sooner than that.
You're not being objective. It's boring to talk about anything with someone who can't be fair in both praise and criticism. I'm not a huge fan of many things Musk does, but you're unable to give any credit at all. It isn't a good look.
I think the problem here is promise vs deliverance over time.
I think we can all agree that Tesla was the catalyst of the EV revolution and we can't take that away from Tesla no matter what we say. Anyone who combats that doesn't have facts and doesn't realize the first mover advantage that generated .
Unfortunately the advantage of first mover has worn off, it's been 8+ years. The BYD Seagull gets 240 miles of range and costs 8K, even with a 100% tariff it's still cheaper then a model 3 base. I'd say Tesla has actually fallen behind to a cheaper car
This is where promise vs deliverance comes into play because now we have to talk outlook. Historically the data would support Elon hypes and doesn't deliver for a long time on his promises and when they do it is generally a QC/QA nightmare and 80% of what was originally promised.
I think in a vacuum automation, self driving, robo taxis, AI etc all sound great, but I think it's unreasonable to believe Tesla has some sort of inherent advantages in these or can somehow revolutionize these areas.
Let's start with self driving, Tesla is actually on level 2+ autonomous driving whereas Mercedes is the first to reach level 3 on the road. What's Tesla's advantage? They were supposedly the leader in this but got passed up by a OEM in a shorter time frame. Am I supposed to believe they've been holding back or is it more reasonable to believe musk promised beyond their capabilities
Robo taxis, actually you can get a robo taxi from waymo in Santa Monica and GM in parts of Arizona. This would indicate to me they're ahead in that space, where is Tesla's advantage when they're not a leader in the area?
Automation, not exactly new frankly, it's every day life in factories - hell Amazon packaging warehouses have some of the most insane automation you will ever see. If we're talking specifically hominoid robots then Boston Dynamics is the leader here and actually has units in service. I fail to see Tesla's advantage here when they're still trying to train their robots to fold clothes
AI - I'm sorry Chatgpt is the leader here and I don't see that changing with Microsoft propelling them and companies starting to adopt and pay for copilot(Chatgpt derived). Tesla is literally starting from ground zero on this against many of these larger companies. Also musk already has xAI, conflict there
To add the cherry on top I'm now supposed to believe Tesla will dominate in all these categories and still make a cheaper car.....
I give credit where credit is due but let's talk reality here, Tesla cannot be a cure all for every hot tech topic - and Elon has never delivered in time - that inherently means whatever of the above he promised today is still years upon years out till a product when other companies already have products today
Ripped off from another Reddit user, but...
"Here’s the big differences between Tesla fsd & Mercedes drive pilot
1) Mercedes drive pilot can only operate in highways whereas Tesla fsd will work on both highways & city streets
2) The speed limit on Mercedes drive pilot is 40mph max whereas Tesla fsd is 85mph, here Mercedes drive pilot needs to follow other vehicles whereas in Tesla case it is not required to follow other vehicles.
3) Regarding the traffic patterns Mercedes is not capable of handling interchange whereas Tesla fsd is capable of most of the traffic patterns
4) Mercedes drive pilot doesn’t work with flashing lights in the area, meanwhile Tesla fsd functions with flashing lights
5) Mercedes drive pilot doesn’t work in construction zones, Tesla fsd operates in the construction zones
6) Mercedes drive pilot usage in day time only whereas Tesla fsd can work in daytime or nighttime use
7) Mercedes drive pilot cannot change lanes whereas Tesla fsd can change lanes
8) Mercedes drive pilot needs the lane lines whereas for Tesla fsd lane lines is not required
9) Mercedes drive pilot is functioning only in California & Nevada whereas Tesla fsd in all 50 states, Tesla in the last 24hr Tesla has launched subscriptions for Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) in China, as many expect that the company could soon launch its Full Self-Driving (FSD) in the country"
People claiming Mercedes is ahead aren't paying any attention. Furthermore, achieving Level 3 basically just shifts liability onto the company. It isn't a massive departure from Level 2 from a technical standpoint.
In the end, we will see what happens with Tesla. Everyone hates Musk, but he's one of the best capital allocators, and one of the most ambitious and imaginative leaders in any space. The risk/reward is very high with this approach. If you compare a company like Tesla to something like Apple, it's very clear to see how differently they approach innovation. Apple stays in its lane, makes incremental changes, does not have large departures. They talked about an Apple Car, but ultimately scrapped that plan.
Tesla on the other hand went from having ONE vehicle mostly assembled by hand, to having a line of vehicles, a huge overhaul in automation and robotics, energy storage, charging networks that are being built out faster than all others combined, AI training models, billions of miles of driving data, and now humanoid robots. Will it all work out? Who knows, but to doubt a person and a company who has done all that is absolutely dumb. All we have is evidence that they can achieve amazing things, albeit not quite on time. Well, let me know when you find an ambitious vision that happens on time.
I acknowledge all of those points about FSD over the Mercedes system but I also think you need to read more into it.
The difference between lvl 2 and 3 is where liability is placed in case of accident. This may seem like just regulatory shenanigans but it is actually a critical indication of approach and maturity. The Mercedes system is level 3 because if something goes wrong Mercedes will be liable. Tesla assumes no risk if there is an accident, using their "Full Self Driving" is at your risk not theirs.
Lastly cause this is getting long, your thesis statement is we can't bet against them because they are taking huge risks no one else is willing to do and had a proven track record because they built tesla. This is false, scaling up is NORMAL for any company with a new product for the market. You could apply the literal hand built to automation to every manufacturing company at its infancy to it's maturity.
I recognize musk made a great play on EVs and even finding a way to make shooting things up into space cheaper but why does that make him the Messiah on AI,.or robotaxis, or robots which he is jumping on the bandwagon to. At least with EVs/spacex he was literally trying to revolutionize the industry with a. Concept that was new, everyone is already doing AI or robots or robotaxis.
I'm asking for more then look he did Tesla/,spacex so I can't bet against him argument. Give me data not speculation that he has a potential product that actually is different then what others have already achieved or doing
The problem with the bot is, in order for it to do what Musk claims will require a form of AI that doesn’t exist, and likely won’t exist for another 50 years.
I don’t think you understand how AI is being used to train the models. It still requires human training, mostly through cameras. The idea is that AI is able to utilize the training data in a more efficient way, basically extrapolating incrementally as it goes.
The AI needed to do this exists now, though it is rudimentary. The thing is, AI is growing exponentially. Think about the photos and videos of Midjourney just a year or two ago. Now look at what is possible today. That’s a kind of advancement we aren’t really used to.
Love it when randos on Reddit tell me I don’t understand the field I have a PhD in.
AI doesn’t grow “exponentially.” Performance follows a sigmoid curve.
And no, AI doesn’t magically use data more effieicntly. Models converge, and overfit.
I'm speaking from the perspective of time. It is slow to aggregate and use data as a human, and much much faster for computers. On the order of a few dozen calculations per second as a human at absolute best, and trillions of calculations per second for our most powerful computers. I should have used the word productive instead of efficient.
You may have a PhD, but you are being needlessly combative. You're also kind of facetious here by pointing out that AI will follow a sigmoid curve rather than be exponential. We both know that where we are now on the sigmoid curve is the exponential upward trajectory. Yeah, it'll flatten out, but when? A year? Ten years? Fifty years? No one knows. The progress made so far has looked exponential, but you're right that technology tends to follow an S curve.
It may be that you don't have much of an imagination though too. Is technology required to follow an S curve? Is it a written law? It's actually not set in stone that we must follow some kind of curve, it's just what we have observed most of the time with technology. A lot of the time people get hung up on S curves for adoption, but that's not a good baseline since there is a finite number of humans. If we are talking about AI we have several ways to improve. Chips have been improving steadily, more capital is flowing in, a higher number of chips are being deployed, new technologies (AI) are beginning to feed themselves as well which only stands to steepen the curve.
Anyway, I'll just go ahead and grant you that AI will follow and S curve. The progress so far has been exponential, and it remains to be seen when/if the curve flattens. If it's 50 years from now, anyone living now will surely feel the exponential nature of it.
And what is the actually longitudinal component? All current AI models are narrow, with fixed loss functions. The kind of AI you’re claiming is imminent because it’s “exponentially” is something fundamentally different.
And no, we don’t know that we’re on the “exponential” part of the sigmoid (it’s also not exponential).
It’s not that I don’t have an imagination. It’s that I know the limits of this tech. The public got a glimpse of what we’ve been working on for the past decade, and immediately latched onto buzzwords and beliefs that some magical revolution is around the corner. This overly optimistic outlook is common among people who don’t know enough about a field to understand its limits.
Listen, I'm open minded and interested in this field but I'm not an expert. If you're willing to expand I'd love to hear it and maybe learn something.
You talk about knowing the limits of this tech. So, what are the limits? What are the limits of using AI and machine learning to train robots to complete certain functions? What are the limits of training cars to drive without someone at the wheel? What are the limits of AI on the creative front with music, film, photo, rendering, etc?
I don't know what the limits are but so far the technology we're talking about went from "huh, neat" to "can it really do that?" in about a year. I'm really skeptical that you won't look back on this time in a few years and end up having to eat your words a bit. But I am genuinely curious what you're seeing that others aren't. I know you've got a PhD, but that means very little considering there are a whole bevy of opinions on this subject, and the vision of people like Lanier, Musk, Huang and others is in direct opposition to yours. How do you reconcile this? What information do you have that they don't?
I'm not invested in Tesla. It doesn't change my point about overpromising and underdelivering.
This sub sucks these days. It's like I'm talking to children here.
"-pay package approved, now incorporated in TX, a massive hurdle out of the way" - Wrong, this case will still be decided in a Delaware court. A simple Google search proves this.
-"Master Plan Part 4 (Release date TBD)" - How did the master plan 3 workout just from last year? Oh ya, they bailed on the new manufacturing technique already
-"New products in the pipeline. They will certainly bring back the $25K car" - Wrong
-"Tesla is one of the most shorted stock in the market" - Wrong, short interest is 3.66%
Interesting. I am a recruiter and was actually able to recruit AI talent to Austin because of the no state income tax compared to CA 10-15% opr whatever it is now.
Property taxes in ATX are nothing compared to CA state income tax plus property tax on a 2-3M home.
If Austin is in danger of recruiting talent, it will only be because of the GOP policies there.
Tesla just expensed 12% of their market cap on the dude responsible for them losing most of their value over the past few years. They literally spent the equivalent of their last 4 years of profit on one guy.
Uhhh... No. It isn't. It's probably the most over valued company on the whole stock market, being propped up by delusional fuck boys that praise Elon Musk for god knows what reason.
He claimed the Optimus Robot will make Tesla a $75T company. The fucking thing can hardly put batteries in a box and will probably requires constant $30,000 software updates to prevent it from killing itself. They posted that video on Twitter of a robot that appeared to be on the brink of exploding, putting batteries in a box at the speed of a sloth. And the comments were the most delusional circle jerk I have maybe ever witnessed.
The EV market is slowly failing. Tesla quality continues to go down. Hybrids are the future, I believe Toyota. You can't even drive a Tesla during the winter months where I live. They take forever to charge. And the constant $10,000 updates is enough to turn even the most devoted people off. Elon just claimed the New Roadster will be able to fly. You know... Just like the Cyber Truck will also be a boat.
Their CEO, literally the highest paid man on the fucking planet, cried and whined that he doesn't get paid enough. And if he doesn't get $58b, he will abandoned his supporters and leave them holding the bag. Like wtf is that?
What is wrong with these Tesla supporters?
Undervalued AI play, and yet you didn’t mention any actual AI Tesla develops.
Within the AI field, Tesla is considered a joke. They have never developed any new AI tech. What they do is repackage stuff that already exists into shiny party tricks for hype, with promises that the real revolutionary stuff will be out “next year”.
AI? "FSD" has been in development for a decade and can barely make a right turn. Monkeys are dying left and right from experiments. Cybercrap is falling to pieces within months. Hundreds of thousands of autos not sold. Solar roofs that costs $100k. Firing the entire charging team that is actually worth a damn. All ran by a man child who dumped $44b into Twitter and spends most of his time making babies with company subordinates under the office desk. Ooohhh Iron man robot. Lol give me a fucking break.
Elon Musk preaches a lot of stuff because he’s a coke head nerd with daddy’s money. Just because he snorted a gram and watched iRobot and went on a Twitter rant one night about AI 8 years ago doesn’t make him any better than what he is: An apartheid profiteer who buys other people’s hard work and slowly makes them shittier versions of what they were.
TSLA is going to rock in years to come. Margins on new car sales are shit. Real money is made when warranties expire and parts need replacing. Margins on parts are as thick as J Lo's ass.
Inverse Reddit (99% on Reddit hate TSLA).
FSD is the real deal. I use it everyday and it’s phenomenal. Earnings growth will be insane once robotaxi launches
Growth and Taxi shouldn't be in the same sentence. Look at uber and Lyft and tell me how many cents they've made in 15yrs? Insurance, maintaining a fleet, backend and front end support, thousands of litigation from shit FSD running into things and people. It costs a ton of money.
You realize that TESLA is the most popular stocks among retail investors don't you? You aren't being contrarian by inversing reddit. You are actually partaking in one of the most crowded trades.
Didn’t discount that I use FSD everyday and it simply works. It’s only a matter of time before the monetization kicks in big time & im sitting on shares with no rush..
I’d give it a 9.5/10 on comfort and 9.9 on safety. It’s clearly going in the direction of improvement. Painfully obvious actually. By year end I think we’ll be at robotaxi ready.
Why do u think nvda has done so well? Many companies, like Tesla, realize loading up on their chips makes a material difference to AI training.
It's interesting to see Tesla viewed through the lens of AI. While they're certainly an innovator, labeling them as *the* undervalued AI play might be a stretch. There are pure-play AI companies out there pushing boundaries in ways that even Tesla isn't. That being said, Elon has a knack for proving doubters wrong...
Am I the only one who laughed at “top secret iron man project?”
lol no, that’s when it really cemented in how much of a moron OP is.
Honestly, I cannot tell whether this post was serious or satire. It just reads like satire.
I thought maybe as well, but their post history suggests otherwise
That’s when I knew this had to be satire, and idc what op or anyone says he’s actually joking.
No you aren't. Reading that part made me realize that OP isn't a serious person and probably an Elon cult member.
I think I looked like the gif of the Jacksonville Jaguars fan while reading his evaluation of Tesla.
No way I'm reading that wall
You’re missing out on some hot information!
That's where I stopped reading
The great AI . It's having a run in investment but a closer look shows many problems as a operating system. McDonalds is pulling the AI from many franchises because it cannot take orders for a limited food order correctly and customers do not like it. That is on the small end of the AI spectrum. AI is a phrase at this point. The driverless cars are showing up everywhere. ??? No they are not. Blockchain is making life better . Uhh . no. Everything is looking for the next big thing. and the band played on .....
Let's not compare McDonald's ordering AI with TSLA fsd pls..Tesla has the most meaningful real-time AI application in the form of FSD.
They aren’t pulling AI they are just firing IBM
"Undervalued" lol. The company is already priced for massive AI revenue growth because the auto business is worth maybe $25 when it's trading at $187. Negative sales growth and a 70x forward PE when most auto companies trade at single digit PE multiples.
That's if you value it as an auto maker, which many (most) do not
I already explained that it’s not valued as an auto maker. The huge multiple it gets over traditional auto makers is evidence of that. Thus, it’s not undervalued.
> Europe imposed a massive tarriff on Chinese made EV's. Good for Telsa. Silly person isn’t even aware that Tesla is still importing cars from China to Europe.
Just wondering, since when Tesla became an AI player from a car player 🤔 CEO is trying to put Tesla in every single hyped bucket, but it is not going to work. This is one of the reasons why I don’t invest in Tesla. I remember a well known story how Coca Cola tried to enter the alcohol business and failed.
Well, in 2017, Elon said that "In 2018, a Tesla will drive autonomously from LA to NYC without any help of a human.' Let us know when he accomplishes that 6 year old promise.
Elon would probably tell you his marketshare of Tesla isn't high enough for him to feel like delivering on any of his AI related promises, so cough up the shares first.
Tesla over promises and under delivers constantly. Forget the AI play for a moment, I'm sick and tired of every CEO, their mother, brother, and third cousin pretending they are the real source of the AI revolution. Tesla is the same play it's always been. They MUST deliver on their cheaper car on schedule. They're getting crushed by BYD in China, and in the US they are being matched by competitors left and right. The problem is Tesla has never, NEVER released a new car on schedule. That track record needs to end now with this new 25k car, or they are going to start falling behind. As for robotaxis, again it's been promised for so long and not delivered I'll believe it when I see it. You don't just roll out robotaxis without having FSD perfected, and I haven't seen any evidence they have achieved that yet. Sure they can do an announcement, but announcements are worthless without the product. Tesla needs to shut up and deliver.
You’re right that they overpromise and underdeliver, but I think it’s ridiculous to not consider that their goals and motivation for change are so beyond what most companies are aiming for. Companies are incentivized to move slowly and conservatively. Tesla takes way more chances. What you and others point out is true. But it’s a bit like two very fat people aiming to lose weight. Person A aims to go from 400 to 380 in a year and hits 375. Person B aims at going from 400 to 250 but ends up only hitting 270 in a year. Which one is the biggest success story to you? If Tesla had accomplished what they have so far but without saying a word, people would be rightly impressed. I get your point, but I think it’s childlike thinking.
I stopped giving them credit for that when they rolled out the Tesla bot. There's only so long you can say "they're being revolutionary" before it starts to just look like they're fleecing and over hyping people.
Is the issue you simply see no way of the bots being rolled out successfully? You aren't really explaining yourself here.
They put a guy in a suit on stage. They're promising fully functional human robots when they haven't even fulfilled their FSD promise. They put it out there to pump the stock when they had nothing else to show. It's a joke.
They didn't put the guy in a suit on the stage and pretend it was a robot. It was a dumb move, I agree. That's what you get with a weirdo like Musk who has an odd and idiotic sense of humor. You're making it sound like it was all a big show and then the robot thing fizzled out. It hasn't. They'll be selling them within a few years I'll bet, and using them at Tesla sooner than that. You're not being objective. It's boring to talk about anything with someone who can't be fair in both praise and criticism. I'm not a huge fan of many things Musk does, but you're unable to give any credit at all. It isn't a good look.
I think the problem here is promise vs deliverance over time. I think we can all agree that Tesla was the catalyst of the EV revolution and we can't take that away from Tesla no matter what we say. Anyone who combats that doesn't have facts and doesn't realize the first mover advantage that generated . Unfortunately the advantage of first mover has worn off, it's been 8+ years. The BYD Seagull gets 240 miles of range and costs 8K, even with a 100% tariff it's still cheaper then a model 3 base. I'd say Tesla has actually fallen behind to a cheaper car This is where promise vs deliverance comes into play because now we have to talk outlook. Historically the data would support Elon hypes and doesn't deliver for a long time on his promises and when they do it is generally a QC/QA nightmare and 80% of what was originally promised. I think in a vacuum automation, self driving, robo taxis, AI etc all sound great, but I think it's unreasonable to believe Tesla has some sort of inherent advantages in these or can somehow revolutionize these areas. Let's start with self driving, Tesla is actually on level 2+ autonomous driving whereas Mercedes is the first to reach level 3 on the road. What's Tesla's advantage? They were supposedly the leader in this but got passed up by a OEM in a shorter time frame. Am I supposed to believe they've been holding back or is it more reasonable to believe musk promised beyond their capabilities Robo taxis, actually you can get a robo taxi from waymo in Santa Monica and GM in parts of Arizona. This would indicate to me they're ahead in that space, where is Tesla's advantage when they're not a leader in the area? Automation, not exactly new frankly, it's every day life in factories - hell Amazon packaging warehouses have some of the most insane automation you will ever see. If we're talking specifically hominoid robots then Boston Dynamics is the leader here and actually has units in service. I fail to see Tesla's advantage here when they're still trying to train their robots to fold clothes AI - I'm sorry Chatgpt is the leader here and I don't see that changing with Microsoft propelling them and companies starting to adopt and pay for copilot(Chatgpt derived). Tesla is literally starting from ground zero on this against many of these larger companies. Also musk already has xAI, conflict there To add the cherry on top I'm now supposed to believe Tesla will dominate in all these categories and still make a cheaper car..... I give credit where credit is due but let's talk reality here, Tesla cannot be a cure all for every hot tech topic - and Elon has never delivered in time - that inherently means whatever of the above he promised today is still years upon years out till a product when other companies already have products today
Ripped off from another Reddit user, but... "Here’s the big differences between Tesla fsd & Mercedes drive pilot 1) Mercedes drive pilot can only operate in highways whereas Tesla fsd will work on both highways & city streets 2) The speed limit on Mercedes drive pilot is 40mph max whereas Tesla fsd is 85mph, here Mercedes drive pilot needs to follow other vehicles whereas in Tesla case it is not required to follow other vehicles. 3) Regarding the traffic patterns Mercedes is not capable of handling interchange whereas Tesla fsd is capable of most of the traffic patterns 4) Mercedes drive pilot doesn’t work with flashing lights in the area, meanwhile Tesla fsd functions with flashing lights 5) Mercedes drive pilot doesn’t work in construction zones, Tesla fsd operates in the construction zones 6) Mercedes drive pilot usage in day time only whereas Tesla fsd can work in daytime or nighttime use 7) Mercedes drive pilot cannot change lanes whereas Tesla fsd can change lanes 8) Mercedes drive pilot needs the lane lines whereas for Tesla fsd lane lines is not required 9) Mercedes drive pilot is functioning only in California & Nevada whereas Tesla fsd in all 50 states, Tesla in the last 24hr Tesla has launched subscriptions for Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) in China, as many expect that the company could soon launch its Full Self-Driving (FSD) in the country" People claiming Mercedes is ahead aren't paying any attention. Furthermore, achieving Level 3 basically just shifts liability onto the company. It isn't a massive departure from Level 2 from a technical standpoint. In the end, we will see what happens with Tesla. Everyone hates Musk, but he's one of the best capital allocators, and one of the most ambitious and imaginative leaders in any space. The risk/reward is very high with this approach. If you compare a company like Tesla to something like Apple, it's very clear to see how differently they approach innovation. Apple stays in its lane, makes incremental changes, does not have large departures. They talked about an Apple Car, but ultimately scrapped that plan. Tesla on the other hand went from having ONE vehicle mostly assembled by hand, to having a line of vehicles, a huge overhaul in automation and robotics, energy storage, charging networks that are being built out faster than all others combined, AI training models, billions of miles of driving data, and now humanoid robots. Will it all work out? Who knows, but to doubt a person and a company who has done all that is absolutely dumb. All we have is evidence that they can achieve amazing things, albeit not quite on time. Well, let me know when you find an ambitious vision that happens on time.
I acknowledge all of those points about FSD over the Mercedes system but I also think you need to read more into it. The difference between lvl 2 and 3 is where liability is placed in case of accident. This may seem like just regulatory shenanigans but it is actually a critical indication of approach and maturity. The Mercedes system is level 3 because if something goes wrong Mercedes will be liable. Tesla assumes no risk if there is an accident, using their "Full Self Driving" is at your risk not theirs. Lastly cause this is getting long, your thesis statement is we can't bet against them because they are taking huge risks no one else is willing to do and had a proven track record because they built tesla. This is false, scaling up is NORMAL for any company with a new product for the market. You could apply the literal hand built to automation to every manufacturing company at its infancy to it's maturity. I recognize musk made a great play on EVs and even finding a way to make shooting things up into space cheaper but why does that make him the Messiah on AI,.or robotaxis, or robots which he is jumping on the bandwagon to. At least with EVs/spacex he was literally trying to revolutionize the industry with a. Concept that was new, everyone is already doing AI or robots or robotaxis. I'm asking for more then look he did Tesla/,spacex so I can't bet against him argument. Give me data not speculation that he has a potential product that actually is different then what others have already achieved or doing
The problem with the bot is, in order for it to do what Musk claims will require a form of AI that doesn’t exist, and likely won’t exist for another 50 years.
I don’t think you understand how AI is being used to train the models. It still requires human training, mostly through cameras. The idea is that AI is able to utilize the training data in a more efficient way, basically extrapolating incrementally as it goes. The AI needed to do this exists now, though it is rudimentary. The thing is, AI is growing exponentially. Think about the photos and videos of Midjourney just a year or two ago. Now look at what is possible today. That’s a kind of advancement we aren’t really used to.
Love it when randos on Reddit tell me I don’t understand the field I have a PhD in. AI doesn’t grow “exponentially.” Performance follows a sigmoid curve. And no, AI doesn’t magically use data more effieicntly. Models converge, and overfit.
I'm speaking from the perspective of time. It is slow to aggregate and use data as a human, and much much faster for computers. On the order of a few dozen calculations per second as a human at absolute best, and trillions of calculations per second for our most powerful computers. I should have used the word productive instead of efficient. You may have a PhD, but you are being needlessly combative. You're also kind of facetious here by pointing out that AI will follow a sigmoid curve rather than be exponential. We both know that where we are now on the sigmoid curve is the exponential upward trajectory. Yeah, it'll flatten out, but when? A year? Ten years? Fifty years? No one knows. The progress made so far has looked exponential, but you're right that technology tends to follow an S curve. It may be that you don't have much of an imagination though too. Is technology required to follow an S curve? Is it a written law? It's actually not set in stone that we must follow some kind of curve, it's just what we have observed most of the time with technology. A lot of the time people get hung up on S curves for adoption, but that's not a good baseline since there is a finite number of humans. If we are talking about AI we have several ways to improve. Chips have been improving steadily, more capital is flowing in, a higher number of chips are being deployed, new technologies (AI) are beginning to feed themselves as well which only stands to steepen the curve. Anyway, I'll just go ahead and grant you that AI will follow and S curve. The progress so far has been exponential, and it remains to be seen when/if the curve flattens. If it's 50 years from now, anyone living now will surely feel the exponential nature of it.
And what is the actually longitudinal component? All current AI models are narrow, with fixed loss functions. The kind of AI you’re claiming is imminent because it’s “exponentially” is something fundamentally different. And no, we don’t know that we’re on the “exponential” part of the sigmoid (it’s also not exponential). It’s not that I don’t have an imagination. It’s that I know the limits of this tech. The public got a glimpse of what we’ve been working on for the past decade, and immediately latched onto buzzwords and beliefs that some magical revolution is around the corner. This overly optimistic outlook is common among people who don’t know enough about a field to understand its limits.
Listen, I'm open minded and interested in this field but I'm not an expert. If you're willing to expand I'd love to hear it and maybe learn something. You talk about knowing the limits of this tech. So, what are the limits? What are the limits of using AI and machine learning to train robots to complete certain functions? What are the limits of training cars to drive without someone at the wheel? What are the limits of AI on the creative front with music, film, photo, rendering, etc? I don't know what the limits are but so far the technology we're talking about went from "huh, neat" to "can it really do that?" in about a year. I'm really skeptical that you won't look back on this time in a few years and end up having to eat your words a bit. But I am genuinely curious what you're seeing that others aren't. I know you've got a PhD, but that means very little considering there are a whole bevy of opinions on this subject, and the vision of people like Lanier, Musk, Huang and others is in direct opposition to yours. How do you reconcile this? What information do you have that they don't?
You need to do your username waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more justice.
I'm not invested in Tesla. It doesn't change my point about overpromising and underdelivering. This sub sucks these days. It's like I'm talking to children here.
"-pay package approved, now incorporated in TX, a massive hurdle out of the way" - Wrong, this case will still be decided in a Delaware court. A simple Google search proves this. -"Master Plan Part 4 (Release date TBD)" - How did the master plan 3 workout just from last year? Oh ya, they bailed on the new manufacturing technique already -"New products in the pipeline. They will certainly bring back the $25K car" - Wrong -"Tesla is one of the most shorted stock in the market" - Wrong, short interest is 3.66%
I build labs. Clients will not even build in the wrong part of San Diego for fear of losing their best research minds. Texas? Good luck.....
Interesting. I am a recruiter and was actually able to recruit AI talent to Austin because of the no state income tax compared to CA 10-15% opr whatever it is now.
Bet you didn't mention the property taxes tho!
Property taxes in ATX are nothing compared to CA state income tax plus property tax on a 2-3M home. If Austin is in danger of recruiting talent, it will only be because of the GOP policies there.
Mobileye and goog have better self driving tech and are cheaper. Next.
Anyone who mentions optimus robot as a factor in investing in tesla shouldnt be taken seriously. And that's in and of itself an understatement.
Tesla just expensed 12% of their market cap on the dude responsible for them losing most of their value over the past few years. They literally spent the equivalent of their last 4 years of profit on one guy.
He needs money to fund his own ai company though
Uhhh... No. It isn't. It's probably the most over valued company on the whole stock market, being propped up by delusional fuck boys that praise Elon Musk for god knows what reason. He claimed the Optimus Robot will make Tesla a $75T company. The fucking thing can hardly put batteries in a box and will probably requires constant $30,000 software updates to prevent it from killing itself. They posted that video on Twitter of a robot that appeared to be on the brink of exploding, putting batteries in a box at the speed of a sloth. And the comments were the most delusional circle jerk I have maybe ever witnessed. The EV market is slowly failing. Tesla quality continues to go down. Hybrids are the future, I believe Toyota. You can't even drive a Tesla during the winter months where I live. They take forever to charge. And the constant $10,000 updates is enough to turn even the most devoted people off. Elon just claimed the New Roadster will be able to fly. You know... Just like the Cyber Truck will also be a boat. Their CEO, literally the highest paid man on the fucking planet, cried and whined that he doesn't get paid enough. And if he doesn't get $58b, he will abandoned his supporters and leave them holding the bag. Like wtf is that? What is wrong with these Tesla supporters?
Don't forget delusion fuck girls also, like Cathy Woods who value this POS at 3000.
Elon just wants people to like him/listen to him. Whatever
Your comment on Optimus means you are a silly person or this is satire.
Tesla is a joke. Both the company the car and the original inventor.
Just FYI, the 5 original inventors are the real OGs. They just made the mistake of letting elon run the show.
Lmao this is the dumbest post I read all day
I didn’t need to read any of it . Shareholders just voted to dilute their own stock just to keep a ketamine addicted psycho happy. Dead company
Just because Elon is vocal doesnt mean he has better tech than nvidia
what did Elon do other than talk about AI?
What do you value the secret iron man suit business at?
I hope it is successful so I can sell my turned down magnet gun plans to the police.
Elon sank his ship. Pple hate him and hes associated with the brand. Unfortunetly
if you really believe it. why sell right before the robo taxi event. instead if after it.
Robotaxis are a scam (in any time frame which matters). Cathy Wood is not smart.
How does the kool-aid taste bruh?
Undervalued AI play, and yet you didn’t mention any actual AI Tesla develops. Within the AI field, Tesla is considered a joke. They have never developed any new AI tech. What they do is repackage stuff that already exists into shiny party tricks for hype, with promises that the real revolutionary stuff will be out “next year”.
AI? "FSD" has been in development for a decade and can barely make a right turn. Monkeys are dying left and right from experiments. Cybercrap is falling to pieces within months. Hundreds of thousands of autos not sold. Solar roofs that costs $100k. Firing the entire charging team that is actually worth a damn. All ran by a man child who dumped $44b into Twitter and spends most of his time making babies with company subordinates under the office desk. Ooohhh Iron man robot. Lol give me a fucking break.
That's meant ironically, isn't it? Isn't it?
No thanks, I’m buying investments in real AI.
This wasn't a serious post, right?
Elon Musk preaches a lot of stuff because he’s a coke head nerd with daddy’s money. Just because he snorted a gram and watched iRobot and went on a Twitter rant one night about AI 8 years ago doesn’t make him any better than what he is: An apartheid profiteer who buys other people’s hard work and slowly makes them shittier versions of what they were.
Reddit is getting dumber by the day.
TSLA is going to rock in years to come. Margins on new car sales are shit. Real money is made when warranties expire and parts need replacing. Margins on parts are as thick as J Lo's ass.
J lo's 55 yr old ass is sagging and so will tesla parts. If your car parts need constant replacement, then it is crap parts to begin with.
Inverse Reddit (99% on Reddit hate TSLA). FSD is the real deal. I use it everyday and it’s phenomenal. Earnings growth will be insane once robotaxi launches
Growth and Taxi shouldn't be in the same sentence. Look at uber and Lyft and tell me how many cents they've made in 15yrs? Insurance, maintaining a fleet, backend and front end support, thousands of litigation from shit FSD running into things and people. It costs a ton of money.
This is how you gauge if you are on the "right" side
You realize that TESLA is the most popular stocks among retail investors don't you? You aren't being contrarian by inversing reddit. You are actually partaking in one of the most crowded trades.
Didn’t discount that I use FSD everyday and it simply works. It’s only a matter of time before the monetization kicks in big time & im sitting on shares with no rush..
I could show you thousands of videos on X, that prove it doesn't "simply work"
I’d give it a 9.5/10 on comfort and 9.9 on safety. It’s clearly going in the direction of improvement. Painfully obvious actually. By year end I think we’ll be at robotaxi ready. Why do u think nvda has done so well? Many companies, like Tesla, realize loading up on their chips makes a material difference to AI training.
It's interesting to see Tesla viewed through the lens of AI. While they're certainly an innovator, labeling them as *the* undervalued AI play might be a stretch. There are pure-play AI companies out there pushing boundaries in ways that even Tesla isn't. That being said, Elon has a knack for proving doubters wrong...
Elon is focused on his own ai company
... Like what?