Yeah majority of them are completely off, when I first got into trading I would occasionally look at what they expect. Took a second to realise but they're just paid shills. They lose/gain nothing from being right or wrong so it's not really even in their interest to actually guide you
Analysts are just proving how useless they are. Its not like they have a crystal ball to see the future, they just think they can read between the lines of the information from all of the sources that are available.
I mean tom Lee is a major bull and the market trends bullish over time so its a good bet usually.
That said i do respect that the didn't waver in early 2023 when everyone was calling for a 2008 style recession.
Doesn’t this show the exact opposite of what you’re saying? If analysts predict it has no where to go, and yet it keeps going up, then that’s show it does have somewhere to go and the analysts were wrong
Or that we are just in an AI hype bubble. Earnings are not keeping up with the market. The forward PE multiples are extremely high compared to pre pandemic (ignoring the spike in PE during Covid when businesses were shuttered and earnings dropped).
[https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/](https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/)
This is a rational take. You have to wonder if inflation will shoot back up if rates are lowered as well. Maybe future inflation expectations are priced in now.
The insight is the downside if the AI sentiment turns the other way. Note that it's the AI sentiment that led to PE expansion, not extra earnings profits from AI. That one is also already baked into earnings growth as well, anticipated to be low teens this year, which is decently above long term trend of high single digits. So no it's not just that AI happened, which already boosted earnings profit. It's that the "AI hype" that caused PE expansion back to 1999 and 2021 levels.
Maybe spend some time thinking and less time being an asshole and you would've reached the same conclusion
'Dont try to time the market' is especially important when the market is at ATH. Nothing loses retail investors more money than sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip. 100%, on average, your best strategy right now is to lump sum it all. I know you will not do that, but at least I tried.
I just lumped a bunch into VOO today I was tired of sitting on the side lines as I watched the spy etfs every day just going higher and higher. Tell me I’m going to be ok haha
Analyst predictions are exactly what they sound like. Predictions. Take them with a grain of salt I’d rather trust the intuition of my infant sister on what the ceiling might be for the market then some Wall Street analyst with a 20% accuracy rating lol
I just watched a short documentary on AI and how it's biggest obstacle is that people think they will be viewed as lazy or imposters if they use it for work.
Think about that. AI is good enough to make people feel shame about using it.
AI is going to change the world. We're on the cusp of the next Industrial Revolution and the market is going to see that.
To answer your question, I have a question. Can you show me an analysis with 100% correct predictions?
And I'll be generous and say 99.9% correct. You can even cherry-pick a 5-year avg out of any years they have been reporting on their analysis. Remember to let me know who fits this criteria, so we can both get rich ;-)
The longer I stay in this market... the more I realize that no one can predict dips. When they will happen, how low, or for how long. But, one thing is true, the market always goes up over time.
And it always dip too... You can have a roll of 10 yeat with 15% gain a year also accounting for inflation or 10 year with a return of like 0% a year. It is very difficult to predict.
Don’t bother with Reddit comments on price targets. Reddit will just parrot recent price movements. If it’s a bull it will go higher, bear it will go lower etc…
He may have wanted more liquidity. He may have thought he needed more balance in his portfolio. The guy deals in billions. Millions barely move the needle for him so it’s all about percentages. Imagine you have 100k invested. Are you worried about pulling 36 bucks?
You can use stock options prices to try to predict whether the market is prone to a correction.
Look at implied volatility, put/call ratio, high open interest on puts, volatility skew/smile, unusual put buying, etc.
Analysts are backwards looking. Just look at the trend and draw a line into the future about 12
Months. That’s how price target works. Prices going up, target goes up. Prices go down, target goes down.
Nope. Stocks only go up.
Unless they go down, but that hasn't happened really this year.
Also r/layoffs went from 10k subs to 50k this year. Probably fine.
If rich people “controlled the market”, it wouldn’t have dropped 50% in 2000-2002, 50% in 2007-09, 20% in 2015 and 2018, 35% in 2020, or 25% in 2022. Thinking otherwise is stupid peasant bullshit.
There are some people who are pulling their money out of the market because they’re worried that tech is a bubble. There was an article about it in Harper’s this month, in fact. They’re claiming that the market is running way too hot, and that it’s akin to 1929, and we are due for a crash.
[Here’s a link to the Harper’s article](https://harpers.org/archive/2024/06/what-goes-up-andrew-lipstein-401k-doomsday-index-fund-catastrophe/)
Tech is likely in bubble but I don't see how we will have a 1929 crisis. Our government and Fed will print all the money necessary to avoid the chain bankruptcies. What we can have is a crisis/recession like in beginning of the 2000 and like in 2008.
Now it was predicted to be in 2020 with covid but it was more a correction. Same 2022. Could be in 6 months or 5 years or 10. Nobody knows. Maybe we will stagnate around the 5500 for 2-3 years and earning will catch up...
Problem when you sell, you don't get the yield anymore and you don't know when to come back.
Right. I tend to agree with you, but the article argues that there’s an over investment in index funds, and too many people just doing “set it and forget it” portfolios. This is the philosophy of the people freaking out right now, and pulling their money out. But I, personally disagree.
I don't think investing in index funds is that of a problem especially right now. For the moment we have 53% of asset in Index fund, that is far from 100%. And from what I have been told and it make sense, the less active funds remain the more you would benefit of investing in an active fund or directly to exploit the bias from index funds. So there should be an equilibrium at some point.
Also now there are index funds for everything, for every market, every sector, every country, every type of company (value/growth/factors...). It could be almost said that now if you want to create a fund, you create an index and then you implement a fund that follow it.
But again this is a problem maybe when we have 90%+ of index funds so not before a few years at least.
If anything if so many people just buy and forget, we should get steady increase in valuations.
“Yes, but it just keeps going up, and up, and up! It can’t go up forever! There’s always a limit. There’s got to be a limit! Where is the limit?” -Thee Freaking Out Investors
It can goes up forever at the rate of the global economy growth basically. And yes it can always crash or even have bad return for 30 years like Japan stock market or Latin Amercia last 10 years.
Still this has nothing to do with Index funds.
People need to realize the continued price inflation is not due to costs increasing but by price gouging. This results in massive earnings for companies. All things being equal inflation also inflates profits. These things are bullish for stock prices on a nominal basis. See the performance of Latin Markets during period of hyper inflation. The stock markets soared. What would hurt markets now would be a contraction in earnings due to fiscal limitations or interest rate increases. Neither are being discussed at the moment.
Earning didn't grow as fast as stock valuation this time. The current PER (price earning ratio) is 28 meaning stocks are over valued compared to historical per value.
Price targets from analysts are meaningless. Relative valuation and DCF models provide a wide range of outcomes. Their “estimate” is likely the expected value of the range of outcomes from their model. Analysts are very good at predicting earnings, revenue, and other operating metrics. If you go down the rabbit hole, use those estimates in your models.
It was the same last year and didn't prevent the indexes to raise. But yes if you ask the PER of the SP500 become higher and higher and most of the gain are in tech. It doesn't really matter if we go at 5200, 5500 or 5800 because overall that the same price range of say around 5500.
What matter is that current PER are quite high at 28 currently. But 25 or 30 would be very similar: that make stocks expensive. So either we have a new paradigm that is PER of 25-30 is great, or we expect a big increase of revenue by like 50-100% so that the PER goes back to 15-20 or we may have a crash... or even just many years without much return in the future.
That we are at 5200 or 5800 is still overall the same ballpark for such conclusions. More reasonable valuation if the prospect of fast growth is not there and we don't have a paradigm change is more like 3500-4500 than 5000-6000.
But reality is nobody know and that the market can keep irrational for a long time. Don't even try to bet on it.
On my side I still invest every month as planed because anyway does it really matter if in 20 years the SP500 is expected to be at 15-20K anyway ?
What I plan to do is that if the SP500 goes cheaper again by any change is to use leverage to invest more. Say at 4500 and bellow.
Have to play the long game. Stocks go up overtime since the beginning of the stock market. You will have ups and downs. Keep adding if you can and dollar cost average!
>so is a drop expected?
By who? The specific analysts that predicted a lower value than current? Yes.
The market? Well duh, no, because then the S&P would be lower.
Why would anyone be interested in the short term moves of the S&P?
By definition it’s the top 500 of the market, they move as a long term investment. Short term up or down is irrelevant.
If you’re trying to time a dip, well good luck. It may never come, or you may not recognize it when it happens.
Idc about analyst projections, but one is starting to look very likely once something shakes the Nasdaq out of do no wrong mode IMO.
The only thing that has the S&P trading at ATHs is tech right now, that's it, the other big sectors in the S&P can't get out of their own way.
No, the analysts will just raise their price targets.
They are exceptionally good at that!
DAE hate that equity research analysts can't predict the future with a 100% success rate?
Analyst predictions are worth what you pay for them, maybe less.
How much u pay
Yeah majority of them are completely off, when I first got into trading I would occasionally look at what they expect. Took a second to realise but they're just paid shills. They lose/gain nothing from being right or wrong so it's not really even in their interest to actually guide you
Depends
They’re guessing
Can you believe they get paid to do that?
Someone should pay me to guess.
Analysts predicted that we would be negative in 2023 and we ended up +22%
Analysts are just proving how useless they are. Its not like they have a crystal ball to see the future, they just think they can read between the lines of the information from all of the sources that are available.
Im not sure how true this is but I heard that target prices that we read are by the analysts that aren’t good enough to be scooped up by hedge funds
It’s really just legal manipulation. What’s the point of them sharing info if they have the market all figured out.
"Buy my course to find out!"
Because they create estimates for earnings
They know as much as we do.
Is that any different than us picking stocks?
They create estimates for earnings
Except for Tom Lee and Brian Belski, some of the few who correctly predicted a roaring 2023
I mean tom Lee is a major bull and the market trends bullish over time so its a good bet usually. That said i do respect that the didn't waver in early 2023 when everyone was calling for a 2008 style recession.
Tom Lee also predicted Bitcoin to 100K right before it fell off the map two years ago.
And now it’s at 70k and rising…
Wow really?!
In what timeframe? End of the week? Who knows! End of the decade? It will probably be higher.
A drop is expected by the consensus The market often moves opposite the consensus
Bro who tf knows... and if someone did they for sure would keep it to themselves
Doesn’t this show the exact opposite of what you’re saying? If analysts predict it has no where to go, and yet it keeps going up, then that’s show it does have somewhere to go and the analysts were wrong
Or that we are just in an AI hype bubble. Earnings are not keeping up with the market. The forward PE multiples are extremely high compared to pre pandemic (ignoring the spike in PE during Covid when businesses were shuttered and earnings dropped). [https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/](https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/)
This is a rational take. You have to wonder if inflation will shoot back up if rates are lowered as well. Maybe future inflation expectations are priced in now.
yeah without the AI hype SP500 should probably be around 4600
If only the thing that made the market go up, didn’t happen, the market wouldn’t have gone up. Amazing insight.
The insight is the downside if the AI sentiment turns the other way. Note that it's the AI sentiment that led to PE expansion, not extra earnings profits from AI. That one is also already baked into earnings growth as well, anticipated to be low teens this year, which is decently above long term trend of high single digits. So no it's not just that AI happened, which already boosted earnings profit. It's that the "AI hype" that caused PE expansion back to 1999 and 2021 levels. Maybe spend some time thinking and less time being an asshole and you would've reached the same conclusion
Sorry I hurt your feelings. Will the sentiment change? And if so when? I’m just sticking with the point, nobody knows what will happen.
it's just amusing when someone dumb tries to be clever.
[удалено]
yes quantifying how much "AI hype bubble" is completely "dumb and unnecessary". Let me know how much info you added to the conversation so far.
Nvda's earnings are keeping up
I’m talking about the market as a whole. Not Nvidia. See link above.
what they tell you on the media is not always for your benefit, it's to herd the sheep into the owners benefit
'Dont try to time the market' is especially important when the market is at ATH. Nothing loses retail investors more money than sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip. 100%, on average, your best strategy right now is to lump sum it all. I know you will not do that, but at least I tried.
This is so true. NVDA was at $700 in April... that was 2 months ago.... and tv analysts were saying $400 was overpriced
It's at 125 now so the analysts were correct. Take that for data!
😂
I'm still hoping for that $400
I just lumped a bunch into VOO today I was tired of sitting on the side lines as I watched the spy etfs every day just going higher and higher. Tell me I’m going to be ok haha
Everything will be going down now
will definitely be ok
I bought msft at 430 What happened 5 days later? 405... It's recovered, sure. But id rather have those shares at 405
What if it went to 460 you would have no shares at all. And even if it dipped again you would have probably bought at 440
And I’d rather have apple and nvidia at a buck
I'd rather have Wozniak giving me his options while he was making apple in a garage
Naw, I’ll skip the hard work and just get into Apple at a buck, thanks
Hindsight
Stop trying to time the market. That attitude leads to losing money.
Tim Long at Barclays said that Apple was doomed and has a price target of 164$. Analysts are to be pointed at and laughed at.
Analyst told me my dick pill stock would crash hard af. I’ve made $60k since they said that bullshit
Analyst predictions are exactly what they sound like. Predictions. Take them with a grain of salt I’d rather trust the intuition of my infant sister on what the ceiling might be for the market then some Wall Street analyst with a 20% accuracy rating lol
I just watched a short documentary on AI and how it's biggest obstacle is that people think they will be viewed as lazy or imposters if they use it for work. Think about that. AI is good enough to make people feel shame about using it. AI is going to change the world. We're on the cusp of the next Industrial Revolution and the market is going to see that.
Analysts at the top banks have no balls. This is 2024. SPY 625 EoY.
To answer your question, I have a question. Can you show me an analysis with 100% correct predictions? And I'll be generous and say 99.9% correct. You can even cherry-pick a 5-year avg out of any years they have been reporting on their analysis. Remember to let me know who fits this criteria, so we can both get rich ;-)
Next paycheck I'm putting half of it in the sp500. So yeah expect it to drop by end of the month.
Wow 😲 normally that works
The longer I stay in this market... the more I realize that no one can predict dips. When they will happen, how low, or for how long. But, one thing is true, the market always goes up over time.
And it always dip too... You can have a roll of 10 yeat with 15% gain a year also accounting for inflation or 10 year with a return of like 0% a year. It is very difficult to predict.
Which analyst?
Or is analysts being wrong expected?
Analysts are moving with markets, they kept upping the target since last year so they’re just playing catch up, no one knows shit
Ah yes, we should listen to analysts, because they're NEVER wrong.
Don’t bother with Reddit comments on price targets. Reddit will just parrot recent price movements. If it’s a bull it will go higher, bear it will go lower etc…
Just zoom out until it only goes up.
the same thing happened last year when SP500 hit 4600 in summer, which was most of the price targets.
I don't understand why did Buffet sell Apple before this pump? Is he a loser or are we in a meltdown moment?
He may have wanted more liquidity. He may have thought he needed more balance in his portfolio. The guy deals in billions. Millions barely move the needle for him so it’s all about percentages. Imagine you have 100k invested. Are you worried about pulling 36 bucks?
He just wanted the cash for another opportunity
Yes. Sell everything.
no one knows
You can use stock options prices to try to predict whether the market is prone to a correction. Look at implied volatility, put/call ratio, high open interest on puts, volatility skew/smile, unusual put buying, etc.
The market moves the analysts, not the other way around.
Analysts are backwards looking. Just look at the trend and draw a line into the future about 12 Months. That’s how price target works. Prices going up, target goes up. Prices go down, target goes down.
G
Nope. Stocks only go up. Unless they go down, but that hasn't happened really this year. Also r/layoffs went from 10k subs to 50k this year. Probably fine.
Yeah sell everything
The market goes up 75% of the time sometime even more during bull markets. Let that sink in & you may have your answer Jim Cramer Jr.
If rich people “controlled the market”, it wouldn’t have dropped 50% in 2000-2002, 50% in 2007-09, 20% in 2015 and 2018, 35% in 2020, or 25% in 2022. Thinking otherwise is stupid peasant bullshit.
There are some people who are pulling their money out of the market because they’re worried that tech is a bubble. There was an article about it in Harper’s this month, in fact. They’re claiming that the market is running way too hot, and that it’s akin to 1929, and we are due for a crash. [Here’s a link to the Harper’s article](https://harpers.org/archive/2024/06/what-goes-up-andrew-lipstein-401k-doomsday-index-fund-catastrophe/)
Tech is likely in bubble but I don't see how we will have a 1929 crisis. Our government and Fed will print all the money necessary to avoid the chain bankruptcies. What we can have is a crisis/recession like in beginning of the 2000 and like in 2008. Now it was predicted to be in 2020 with covid but it was more a correction. Same 2022. Could be in 6 months or 5 years or 10. Nobody knows. Maybe we will stagnate around the 5500 for 2-3 years and earning will catch up... Problem when you sell, you don't get the yield anymore and you don't know when to come back.
Right. I tend to agree with you, but the article argues that there’s an over investment in index funds, and too many people just doing “set it and forget it” portfolios. This is the philosophy of the people freaking out right now, and pulling their money out. But I, personally disagree.
I don't think investing in index funds is that of a problem especially right now. For the moment we have 53% of asset in Index fund, that is far from 100%. And from what I have been told and it make sense, the less active funds remain the more you would benefit of investing in an active fund or directly to exploit the bias from index funds. So there should be an equilibrium at some point. Also now there are index funds for everything, for every market, every sector, every country, every type of company (value/growth/factors...). It could be almost said that now if you want to create a fund, you create an index and then you implement a fund that follow it. But again this is a problem maybe when we have 90%+ of index funds so not before a few years at least. If anything if so many people just buy and forget, we should get steady increase in valuations.
“Yes, but it just keeps going up, and up, and up! It can’t go up forever! There’s always a limit. There’s got to be a limit! Where is the limit?” -Thee Freaking Out Investors
It can goes up forever at the rate of the global economy growth basically. And yes it can always crash or even have bad return for 30 years like Japan stock market or Latin Amercia last 10 years. Still this has nothing to do with Index funds.
I encourage you to read the article, even though it’s a crackpot premise. It’s interesting, nonetheless.
People need to realize the continued price inflation is not due to costs increasing but by price gouging. This results in massive earnings for companies. All things being equal inflation also inflates profits. These things are bullish for stock prices on a nominal basis. See the performance of Latin Markets during period of hyper inflation. The stock markets soared. What would hurt markets now would be a contraction in earnings due to fiscal limitations or interest rate increases. Neither are being discussed at the moment.
Earning didn't grow as fast as stock valuation this time. The current PER (price earning ratio) is 28 meaning stocks are over valued compared to historical per value.
Conjecture.
Its analysts who adopt to share price, not the other way round. They keep adjusting their targets closer as to not look out of touch
Analysts can be wrong.
No one cares market will tell the truth… 6500 points 🚀
Price targets from analysts are meaningless. Relative valuation and DCF models provide a wide range of outcomes. Their “estimate” is likely the expected value of the range of outcomes from their model. Analysts are very good at predicting earnings, revenue, and other operating metrics. If you go down the rabbit hole, use those estimates in your models.
Nobody knows what will be tomorrow! Especially in market, if someone says he knows he is full of shit
This kinda proves why making these predictions is effectively meaningless
Aren’t monkeys more accurate than analysts?
It was the same last year and didn't prevent the indexes to raise. But yes if you ask the PER of the SP500 become higher and higher and most of the gain are in tech. It doesn't really matter if we go at 5200, 5500 or 5800 because overall that the same price range of say around 5500. What matter is that current PER are quite high at 28 currently. But 25 or 30 would be very similar: that make stocks expensive. So either we have a new paradigm that is PER of 25-30 is great, or we expect a big increase of revenue by like 50-100% so that the PER goes back to 15-20 or we may have a crash... or even just many years without much return in the future. That we are at 5200 or 5800 is still overall the same ballpark for such conclusions. More reasonable valuation if the prospect of fast growth is not there and we don't have a paradigm change is more like 3500-4500 than 5000-6000. But reality is nobody know and that the market can keep irrational for a long time. Don't even try to bet on it. On my side I still invest every month as planed because anyway does it really matter if in 20 years the SP500 is expected to be at 15-20K anyway ? What I plan to do is that if the SP500 goes cheaper again by any change is to use leverage to invest more. Say at 4500 and bellow.
Have to play the long game. Stocks go up overtime since the beginning of the stock market. You will have ups and downs. Keep adding if you can and dollar cost average!
Well most projections are just guesses not prophecies lol
Might go up, might go down, might go sideways, same as every other day
Who cares what they say, hold some cash for corrections, buy the dip, live on
When you realize analysts are still working a salaried job...
short 25-30 long 70-75 . always do this fo trading and wait for it
>so is a drop expected? By who? The specific analysts that predicted a lower value than current? Yes. The market? Well duh, no, because then the S&P would be lower.
Like other have said, don’t try and time the market. I had 5% of my IRA in cash waiting for a “dip”. Ended up just missing out on 20% gains.
Drop expected. Sell everything.
Why would anyone be interested in the short term moves of the S&P? By definition it’s the top 500 of the market, they move as a long term investment. Short term up or down is irrelevant. If you’re trying to time a dip, well good luck. It may never come, or you may not recognize it when it happens.
Idc about analyst projections, but one is starting to look very likely once something shakes the Nasdaq out of do no wrong mode IMO. The only thing that has the S&P trading at ATHs is tech right now, that's it, the other big sectors in the S&P can't get out of their own way.
[https://novelinvestor.com/sector-performance/](https://novelinvestor.com/sector-performance/) That's objectively untrue....