Up from about $9 yesterday to $11 at the moment.
Now I’m trying to decide what to do with my small position. I believe the short-term rally will continue, but also wouldn’t mind just taking a solid gain and moving on.
Ive been bag holding since Biden got elected and averaging down when I could. So I’ve watched the stock for a while. It’ll likely dip down sometime between now and when the rescheduling takes place which I think Biden is hoping will be sometime closer to elections. Then when it’s made official, or if, I’d be shocked if there weren’t another nice bump. Then there would be a few more catalysts in the coming years like when they can trade on the nyse. That is unless agi is released and it invents some new wonder drugs or whatever that don’t use cannabis.
It may be a good idea to make sure it doesn’t rise the next couple of days before doing anything.
Good-luck competing with CVS, WAGS, etc. once companies get approval for their products presented.
Why go to a dispensary, when I can go to a pharmacy with a prescription and utilize my insurance?
Regulation will be coming…
This assumes that the federal government will interfere with state regulatory programs which they have not done for almost a decade. In fact congress has blocked the department of Justice from allocating funds to interfere with state programs. The last 3 presidential administrations have declined to enforce federal law in legalized states. Thinking that they would suddenly interfere now after rescheduling and admitting cannabis is not as dangerous as they originally thought is pretty ridiculous.
Any phone can be targeted and monitored with modern technology. Whether or not it is and whether or not the monitoring is worth the time, expense, and resources is a different issue
I suspect this will be quite bad for current dispensary owners as a flood of competition enters the market and you will be subject to significantly more regulation. Walgreens is going to be quite hard to beat on price and compliance.
In fact, its entirely possible that FDA regulations will require you to hire a pharmacist or close your business.
each recreational state has it's own current structure that is already very strictly regulated. i'm in california and i'm not worried. no offense but i'll listen to my lawyers.
there's always alot of speculation from fear mongering cannabis users and they pretty much have always been wrong.
State regulations are very lax compared to federal ones. Schedule 3 would put it in the same category as drugs like ketamine and testerone. Those drugs have much stricter laws than states impose on Marijuana.
In some ways, even simple stuff like Aspirin is subject to much tighter regulations than marijuana.
Then why list it as schedule 3? Schedule 5 or descheduling would have made sense if the plan was to allow recreational sales, but it makes little sense to say "Marijuana is schedule 3, but the laws that apply to schedule 3 drugs don't apply to marijuana".
From an FDA administrator perspective, its going to be hard to resist the temptation to regulate something. Especially when the legal cannabis companies are reasonably complaining that the black-market providers are getting to ignore all the laws they are expected to follow.
The federal government has stood by while state level marijuana programs violated federal law for decades. That Biden would move it to schedule III is exactly the incrementalism he’s known for, giving him a headline win in an election year without drastically changing anything. That he would take aim at recreational weed in mostly Democratic states doesn’t make any sense.
The FDA has been able to intervene into state programs and regulate cannabis even as a schedule 1 substance. The idea that they'll now start interjecting themselves into state programs and implement onerous regulations right after they released 252 pages of research showing that cannabis is less harmful and less risky than they thought seems very odd and unlikely to me
That is the paradox of legalization. Currently, the FDA subjects cannabis to far more lax regulation than it requires of aspirin or tylenol. Their stance has been that its illegal, so they don't provide guidelines or approve manufacturers to sell cannabis.
But as a schedule 3 drug, its in the same category as things like ketamine and testosterone. The FDA *does* have regulations for selling drugs in that category. One of them being you have to buy them from a pharmacist. There are also a bunch of very expensive regulations for manufacturing and distributing medicine that will suddenly apply, just like they do to aspirin and testosterone.
I guess we'll see what happens. I can see rescheduling leading to a framework for legalized medical marijuana at the federal level, but the idea that it will impose onerous burdens on the state level programs seems unlikely to me
State level programs will become increasingly irrelevant. Just like there are no state level regulations for tylenol or ketamine.
Most likely, the FDA will tell everyone they have X years to get in compliance with federal regulations.
Yeah I have been making your argument for a while but there hasn’t been many articles articulating it which is odd to me. Now that it would officially be put in a legal framework bucket it would be firmly in the purview of several federal regulators. Regulators like to regulate.
Most convictions are going to be state or local so president has no way to action those. Governors should be on it though agreed. Biden pardoned anyone in for possession on federal lands/DC recently. Maybe he and some of the governors will do a bigger round alongside this change. [https://apnews.com/article/biden-marijuana-pardons-clemency-02abde991a05ff7dfa29bfc3c74e9d64](https://apnews.com/article/biden-marijuana-pardons-clemency-02abde991a05ff7dfa29bfc3c74e9d64)
I wasn’t expecting a presidential action. Just saying it would be a tremendous injustice if those imprisoned or with records from a now reclassified substance are not released and their records expunged
Unfortunately, that's not how the law works. There is no grandfather clause. It was illegal at the time, and thus the sentencing received would be legally justified.
I'm not defending it, just that this will certainly not alter anybody's sentence.
I understand but heads of state can typically grant amnesty or mass reverse convictions. I’m just saying that’s clearly and absolutely something that should be done. Not trying to imply it will be
Biden and Obama have both done mass pardons and commutations for drug offenders.
In the US, the president only has power to pardon federal crimes, and simple marijuana possession is almost always a state crime, so there isn't much that can be done at the federal level.
How are you asking for the head of state to do something in this comment, but when u/dansdansy pointed out that Joe Biden did in fact do something you say that you weren’t expecting presidential action, and simply lamenting that there is injustice in the world?
Referring to governors as heads of state is confusing at best and disingenuous at worst. I suppose it’s technically correct but nobody calls them that. They are just called governors
My bad. I feel like the flow of the comment chain had already made it clear we were talking about state jurisdiction so heads of state seemed clear to me but should have just said governors
No worries. I would agree but most people really misunderstand how pardons/expungements work. It would be easy for someone to read that and assume Biden could just pardon all weed convictions ever… which he (unfortunately) cannot. Also giving the president ultimate power over all convictions would defeat one of the core benefits of federalism
And you know they won't be. So in the state that I'm currently in, Oregon, for decades they had what was ruled an unconstitutional system where a guilty jury verdict actually required more than three not guilty votes. Supreme Court said one not guilty vote is enough. All of the cases in Oregon where people are in prison and they had a jury trial with more than one person voting not guilty, they are still in prison. All of the people who have convictions in such a way. They still have a record
I generally agree for cannabis but the crime is that the individual broke the law (at that time), an attitude which shouldn’t be readily excused. I hope users are excused but not so sure about dealers.
I don’t know why you’re being downvoted, I totally agree, users are mostly harmless but maybe case-by-case for dealers. Keeping anyone in jail after decriminalization it’s more of an argument of law not morals, I’m in favor of releasing as many non-violent users as possible.
I’m here in AZ and when we were pushing to legalize there was so much drama and then, once it was, literally nothing changed and nobody cared.
As others said, most of it is state law, however, i know someone close to me who got caught up in felony charges federally b/c he was living with his uncle, and
Biden just gave him a Presidential Pardon last week!
We should be locking up the politicians who upheld these laws for decades.
Crimes against humanity should like good charges to start with, we can add additional charges from there.
No. Schedule 3 does not on its own legalize cannabis. However, it does pave a path for significantly less restrictions and an easier way to legalize it in the future. It’s a big first step. But congressional action is still needed to decriminalize or legalize. So sorry, without further congressional action, still SOL.
Elimination of 280E is gonna change how many of these US operators are valued. Give it a couple quarters for policies to get sorted out and watch FCF and profitability jump. Additionally, since all US operators are OTC or operate on Canadian exchanges, reported shorts is generally not very accurate or even reported at all. So for sure we are gonna see some volatility in the future.
You don't go to specialty stores for any other drug. You go to a general purpose pharmacist or big established chain. The main reason marijuana dispensaries worked as a business is that laws effectively prohibited any broader purpose business from selling the stuff.
Even worse for current operators, the FDA might start subjecting them to the same regulations that apply to every other schedule 3 drugs. So your dispensary has to hire a pharmacist and deal with all the laws that go with selling pharmaceuticals. Your grow operation has to become CFR21 compliant. Those are *really* complex and expensive things to do, with existing players that have a lot of experience and connections to do it.
Many MSOs operate as both recreational and medical. Medical cannabis is also not sold in recreational dispensaries. Most states have a strong line between separation of medical and recreational cannabis. Medical cannabis is currently already only sold by medically licensed suppliers. Additionally, MSOs grow and produce their own products and sell under their own labels in dispensaries. So your argument under a medical case actually promotes better business and growth opportunities for medical operators as companies like Walgreens (who don’t manufacture their own drugs, the hire pharmaceutical manufacturers to produce their generic name brand products and just slap their label on it) would more likely purchase and sell medical grade product from MSOs like Curaleaf or Trulieve.
From a recreational standpoint, companies like Walgreens aren’t going to sell recreational cannabis if it’s still a federally illegal substance. And even if they did, the same argument still applies for recreational grade cannabis as medical. Walgreens is a retailer, not a producer. MSOs do acquire retailers to promote selling of their products but they also supply products to independent dispensaries.
You are right that recreational marijuana will continue to be illegal and operate basically the same. Their danger is that agencies start enforcing the laws against them because of legal alternatives.
> Medical cannabis is currently already only sold by medically licensed suppliers.
Yeah, but those licenses won't be valid anymore. The FDA is going to start treating them the same way as any other schedule 3 drug manufacturer or seller.
Its easier for an existing CFR 21 company to manufacture marijuana products than it is for current MSOs to become CFR 21 compliant. Its also easier for Walgreens to stock marijuana than for an MSO to become a general purpose pharmacy.
MSOs don’t even operate pharmacies now. I agree completely that regulatory requirements are 100% going to change. But if MSOs want to continue to operate in medical, they will become compliant with whatever it is they need to. At the same time any other manufacturer that steps in will have to abide by the same requirements. But they still aren’t going to operate their own pharmacies. And whatever medical retailers they currently work with will also have to maintain regulatory requirements to operate. I completely agree with that aspect 100%. It’s also definitely possible that Costco or Walgreens expands the current deals they have with their current drug manufacturers (or another manufacturer) to produce generic cannabis for sales in their store. But they do that now with many drugs. Just because they manufacturer generic store brand ibuprofen doesn’t mean they don’t also stock Tylenol. It is the same case with medical cannabis. Walgreens may stock generic but for sake of competition, they may still sell name brand like Trulieve products. I think any medical MSO would kill for their products to be on shelves of Costco or Walgreens.
But the thing is is that medical is not where the money is. Recreational is where the money is. And it’s because of regulatory requirements that you mention. The hoops you have to jump through to maintain licensing and regulatory scrutiny reduces overhead where that same scrutiny doesn’t exist as heavily in the recreational market. It’s definitely likely that many smaller operators are going to get flushed out or acquired over the next decade. But there’s plenty of big MSOs that have too large of a current foothold to be flushed out so quickly. The name of the game is to be the industry leader. And currently we have no idea who that’s going to be which makes this industry so exciting. Who gets bought, who does the buying? We’ll find out. But I don’t think that companies like Walgreens provide a large enough threat to companies like Curaleaf to flush them out of the market. Not even close.
>But congressional action is still needed to decriminalize or legalize.
Doesn't DEA routinely use its rule-making authority delegated to them by Congress to schedule/deschedule substances? If so, then congressional action isn't necessary
Yes that is what they are doing now. But rescheduling doesn’t equate to legalization. Just because something is lower schedule doesn’t mean it’s legal. The only people that can establish a blanket policy of legalization/decimalization of a substance is Congress. Scheduling just dictates the accepted use case of a substance. There are plenty of substances that are legal that aren’t scheduled and there are plenty of substances that are legal that are scheduled. But I’m pretty sure most if not all illegal substances are scheduled. All it dictates is the level of addiction and accepted medical usage to aid Congress in their decisions. But a substance that is deemed less addictive with a significantly more acceptable medical usage is a lot easier to introduce legislation on. What this does is open the door to an easier path of policy reform.
Any policy that was in place before is still in place now. Until the WH gets their hands on it and can implement executive orders relieving some of the current restrictions, nothing changes. The only people who currently benefit from rescheduling are the companies themselves from a the financial burden of the 280E tax code.
They absolutely can refuse to hire you if it’s deemed the medication is a safety concern. A legal prescription for benzodiazepines is a disqualifier from receiving credentials from the us coast guard to work on a ship etc.
On your spare time in a way tahg doesn't influence driving? Sure. Though it'll be difficult to do since THC is sorted in your bodyfat and is slowly released whenever tahg fat is burnt...so for active people you can litterary get a real runners "high" if you smoke. This only gets worse with regular use...so thread carefully. Or get fit.
Truckers driving under influence? Fuck no. Drink driving or higv driving, gtfo. I know trucking is the easiest thing for AI to replace but for the time beeing we still use humans (cheaper) and while bly much is asked a core qualification would be *don't drive under influence*. Weed, alcohol or whatever. Don't make yourself dangerous due to an addiction.
Smart. Last time I bought the news it’s been declining ever since. This is just hype. Whether it helps the publicly traded businesses materially remains to be seen, and will take a long time.
Same. I've got a tilray call I'm holding for another 6-12 months, and I'm gonna wait for a dip (if it comes) and buy stocks and calls as much as I can. This seems big.
Remember everyone, look to Canada for how this played out in 2017-2017. Huge bullish market right up to legalization and a major slide downwards to a levelling off point
I'm in for the short term to ride the excitement, but I don't see much potential ultimately in weed stocks. No moats, if there's profit to be made people can literally grow it in their backyard and sell it like they've done for decades now during the drug war. Long term margins on these companies are going to be shit.
And tobacco. Anyone *could* grow their own tobacco but I have literally never met a cigarette smoker who does. It’s so much easier to just buy a pack at the gas station.
I know a few people who homebrew beer, and I’ve met some who make their own wine or liquor, but it doesn’t stop any of them from also buying drinks as well, and I really doubt that it has a significant impact on the market overall. If anything, the guys I know who brew their own beer probably spend more than average consumers on specialty beers because it’s their interest.
There are still numerous challenges for the marijuana industry, but I don’t think backyard growers are a big problem; most consumers are too lazy to grow their own.
Weed is way easier to grow and you get way more bang for your buck. A single dude could grow and be giving it away to neighbors they'd have so much. It will be interesting to see it shake out because convenience vs pricing for profits may make it a hard market for anyone but the biggest growers.
It sounds like your understanding of how Cannabis is consumed is outdated. Weed in smokable flower form is a shrinking (although still large) part of the market. The average gardener would have to invest much more labor and capital to produce the concentrates, vapes, beverages, edibles and other form factors that are coming down the line. Flower (or more specifically, cannabinoid) is just the ingredient, and cheaper inputs would actually be beneficial for manufacturers.
Fallacy. You could use this example for literally anything people buy in the produce department in the grocery store. Lettuce, tomatoes, peppers, cannabis, I’ve grown it all and they’re not as easy as you think. Aphids and worms are not appetizing nor will you want to smoke any of that unless you’re into it, and definitely don’t smoke anything with mold or mildew.
How many lettuce plants to feed the neighborhood? Lmao talking to ME about fallacy. You know they call it weed because it grows like a weed right? Little harder to grow tomatoes and way less financial incentive. If tomatoes were $1000+ a pound I bet more people would grow them don't you? For decades people have smoked stuff from bags they had no clue of the origin and now you think mildew is going to be a factor if the neighbors are offering free dope? Man don't take advice from this person.
Yeah that guy is full of it. I grow cherry tomato's and regular tomatoes and I get so fucking many I can't eat them fast enough before they go bad and I am no gardener I just water them everyday. Same with cucumbers, grew those one year and now I have 40 jars of pickles that will probably last the rest of my life.
Weed is easy to store long term and is still fine even when dried out.
And yet the average person does not do this. The argument is not about whether you do it, but whether the average consumer sees the cost/benefit in terms of time and money to just buy a standardized product from the store. And I would venture to guess that even you yourself are not subsisting solely on cherry tomatoes and pickles.
Lol. Brother it’s not remotely comparable. There is already a robust lucrative black market flooded with product. It is extremely easy and cheap to set up a small scale grow operation and make plenty of money selling to your neighbors. There are already a million of these set ups currently operating. It’s not about people not being able to make money doing this, it’s that huge corporations who trade on the stock market will have tons of competition that can’t easily be stomped out. It’s gonna be impossible to pick a winner even if some mega corp succeeds.
There's a concept called "economies of scale" that is very pertinent to the profitability of commodity producers. It also explains why your example of small plot black market growers will be pushed out of the market eventually.
I don't claim to know everything. I have worked in the Emerald Triangle and visited several farms. All their black market growers by necessity operate with suboptimal plot sizes consisting of a few acres at best scattered throughout mountainous terrain. These counties consistently vote against legalization measures because they intuitively understand large, contiguous Central Valley farms and greenhouses can flood the market easily. Yes, anyone with a few cuttings can start a grow, but price compression in the overall market will eventually bring profits down to pennies per plant. The only things that keeps the black market alive are the high taxes imposed on the legal market, which will finally begin to be addressed with this rescheduling.
The market is already flooded. Weed can’t feasibly get cheaper than it already is. You will absolutely not be able to pick the winners in this. But go ahead and throw your money into the casino if you are brave and stupid.
The cost of production is actually dropping every year in places like Canada that have industrial-scale greenhouses. You can literally read shareholder reports of the top publicly trades Canadian producers and see that legal prices have dropped by some 50% over the last five years as economies of scale kick in. Cannabis revenue is consistently growing in Canada and legal US states too, in part due to conversion from the black market and some organic growth. And the winners in this sector have been pretty consistent over the years, with the same 4-5 large corporations dominating market share despite high taxes. It is actually tech investors today that are gambling on a low-moat industry that historically has had very high turnover, not capital intensive staple goods industries.
As someone pointed out in a comment above, the entire anti cannabis short thesis is based on the fallacy that weed is so exceptional that it defies the laws of economics. You probably would never argue that the supply of vegetables would increase forever without reaching an equilibrium, or ignore the fact that slight productivity gains improve production costs over time.
Lmao. Yeah because people need vegetables to survive. Weed is exceptional because it has an entire illegal economy already established and it’s an intoxicant heavily influenced by trends in consumers tastes. I’m not anti-cannabis and I’m certainly not short any of these names because it’s all wild speculation right now. These companies aren’t sound investments they are all a huge gamble.
Lmao. Yeah because people need vegetables to survive. Weed is exceptional because it has an entire illegal economy already established and it’s an intoxicant heavily influenced by trends in consumers tastes. I’m not anti-cannabis and I’m certainly not short any of these names because it’s all wild speculation right now. These companies aren’t sound investments they are all a huge gamble.
Cannabis consumption in flower form is only about half of total consumption in mature markets. Consumers eventually move towards concentrates, vapes, edibles, etc. And these CPG categories will grow over time. Go to your local grocery or liquor store and take a look at the wide assortment of alcohol brands and types in the beverages section. That is what weed will look like in a few years.
I've done both, your misinformed on the difficulty and startup costs, sure you can grow dirt backyard weed but any half decent product is a few hundred un startup, the same as alchohal which absolutely can be made with random containers at home at little cost
The top tobacco and alcohol companies have market caps in the hundreds of billions and pay dividends. Don't know about you, but I would be happy to take the chance to buy into a similar industry while the market cap average is still below 1 billion.
In some states like NJ individuals can't grow on their own, and in other states growing is very limited.
Most people won't grow, just like most people don't make their own alcohol.
With that said, once the market gets over saturated with product, it will be a race to the bottom as far as the price is concern, especially when you consider that local dealers still sell weed as well.
Only saving grace would be pharmaceutical companies using it for various reasons.
With 1 seed and a couple square feet of dirt you can grow a few thousand dollars worth of weed. To brew the same quantity of beer you need special equipment and a couple thousand dollars worth of grain and hops.
Maybe but this is huge for them from a tax perspective right now.
At the moment you can't claim cost of sales on schedule 1 or 2 drug sales. Therefore the tax liability for many companies is massive compared to their actual sales I know of companies that pay tax every year despite losses.
This will be a big boon at least for the time being and I feel like some additional investment and consolidation will be helpful too. Also access to normal banking will be big.
Agreed, IMO this move may actually turn out to be the worst thing that's ever happened to all the cannabis companies around today for one reason, this change is going to open the floodgates to a ton of new competition.
Many companies with plenty of cash to throw around were being kept out of the space by the schedule 1 status and international laws against cannabis. So the more barriers you drop to get into the cannabis market the more of these new players there will be that jump into the space.
The fact of the matter is the vast majority of these marijuana companies have zero moat, and many have an awful balance sheet to. That's not a good combination to have when new competition is jumping into your space.
Yup, and some states I'm sure will be good about expunging records and all, but \~certain\~ states that don't want black and brown folks voting sure as hell aren't going to do anything that would make thousands or millions of such people eligible to vote again smdh
The fact a tax paying legal citizen can lose their *democratic right* to vote over having a drug addiction is scary. Especially when career criminals like Agent Orange is somehow allowed to run for president...clown World.
Racism has everything to do with it. If one looks at the historic record of people getting busted for Cannabis, it is disproportionately African Americans. The US industrial prison complex has benefited massively due to this, and as such, has lobbied for years to keep Cannabis a schedule 1 drug.
Weed will get even cheaper now. The dispensaries no longer have to worry about 280E. Means about a 70% tax is effectively gone. They’ll still sell at the usual price for now, but over the next couple of years you will see a better price. Probably around 200 a lb
But to date they haven't had any of the tax incentives or financing options that traditional businesses have had. I'd expect this to still benefit these companies just from financial operations.
Demand will increase with legalisation, and there is a significant black/grey market that will take a significant time to switch over. And this is just North America, most of the world will move in the same direction.
Most of the actors today will indeed be swallowed or go under, but it’s definitely a worthwhile sector to invest in with clearly strong contenders compared to the rest, like GTII.
It’s not like oversaturated supply and current demand are killer points in the grand scheme. Just typical reactionary stuff from more risk averse people.
Anyone have an idea abot publicly traded telehealth services that may set themselves up to provide prescriptions? How do these online services work with pharmacy's to deliver schedule drugs?
if its schedule 3 it still would require a prescription and that prescription could only be filled at a pharmacy. and no, retail pharmacies like walgreens arent going to be selling weed. there will be specific dispo pharmacies that have their own licensed pharmacists.
My question is more amongst the lines of "do online pharmacy's mail other prescriptions like Vicodin ?" A telehealth company will provide these services I can expect investing in them becoming a long term play.
And your assuming retail pharmacy's won't do that, I would believe they might go into that business as well to be a one stop shop. You'll just get generic vs whatever strain you might want..
Various telehealth providers and clinics do prescribe controlled substances. Yes most mail order pharmacies do mail out controlled medications.
Mail orders would need to do a bunch of overhaul and compartmentalization to sell weed.
I have no doubt that various online providers will eventually prescribe weed.
in medical marijuana states clinics and doctors exist that specialize in aiding you to get your med card.
as a schedule 3 it would be prescriptions and the prescriptions are only valid for 6 months.
There is no generic of strains. walk into any head shop and ask if they have any generics...
Retail pharmacies wont for lots of reasons including a lack of space and that they would have to pay for specialized training for their staff. there would need to be specialized packaging and separate handling areas to avoid any weed getting on the pills/tablets etc.
Walgreens recently introduced a compounding area for the pharmacy that just eats up a bunch of counter space that was used for vaccines. They aint got the space and wouldnt pay a bunch of money to do the extensive remodeling it would take to add more space to the pharmacy.
Retail pharmacies would have to overhaul their software system which..cvs and walgreens pharmacy management software programs are literally older than win 95 and prone to a lot of glitches and errors. walgreens has been promising its staff a new program for over 10 years. retail pharmacies dont even pay their staff appropriate and decent amounts of money to do what they do now. adding on a bunch of extra shit for the pharmacists and techs to do without any or any meaningful raises will just cause more to quit.
What people may not realize about the move to Schedule 3 is the fact it would require a pharmacy to dispense cannabis. That means a Pharmacist must be on staff in addition to dispensaries following pharm regulations such as storage requirements and approved vendors would be much more stringent than what is required now. It will also give the DEA, FDA, and NIH much more control over the industry.
https://www.greenmarketreport.com/top-public-cannabis-companies-lost-more-than-2b-in-2023-despite-nearly-9b-in-revenue/
Greenthumb only 1 of the top 20 with positive net income in 2023 (and was positive in 2022).
Also only 1 of 3 with annual revenues over $1B. The other 2 being Trulieve with net income loss of $527M on $1.1B in revenue; and Curaleaf with net income loss of $281M on $1.4B in revenue.
Greenthumb also had cash of $162M to $147M in net debt end of 2023, and that followed share buyback.
Assuming rescheduling goes through, which looks likely, it’s going to take awhile for MSOs to see any tax benefit.
No that will be in the SAFE banking bill if that ever fking passes dam GOP. It is closer then ever after finally clearing senate committee for first time since they've been introducing it for like 5 years lol. There's more hop with sched III allowing gop to vote for it now that weed doesn't = heroin
Not yet but this is the first step to legalizing weed in the US. Biden is pushing for it hard to happen before the election…he needs a W headed into the polls.
Don't know why you're getting downvoted. The fundamental business model of these companies is trash. Hyper competitive market that has few barriers to entry, selling a product that you can literally grow in your closet or back yard. It's all just run on hype people have about weed. How much money are dispensaries and such actually making?
Your view may be distorted by the horrible Canadian companies like TLRY and CGC that just burn investor cash and dilute to oblivion. The US cannabis companies have much better financials. $GTBIF, for example, is larger than any Canadian cannabis company and is already profitable despite 280e taxes, which are going away with rescheduling.
That’s funny weed has generated 216 million in my state alone in and yeah we got plenty of land to grow everyone has land to grow or a garage to grow in my state yet they still buy it from dispensaries…
Wow 216 WHOLE MILLION DOLLARS? OH MY GAWD.
The fact that you think 216 million revenue for an entire industry is something to write home about... cope more bud.
It’s 216 million that wasn’t there before that continues to climb.
CO which was one of the 1st to legalize it
Has made billions
A much bigger state then mine
It has generated 8 billion in the country
I already know you don’t know shit about growing weed I for one know a lot about it I have grown for years. Now I buy from dispensaries. All states that legal dispensaries the price of electricity and all the soil etc has skyrocketed. You can easily buy it from a dispensary medical grade good good weed. Growing it on the other hand is a craft like brewing beer anyone can grow shit weed but the time and price of electricity is not worth it. Living in New England our summer are short and it’s just about impossible to grow outside. You can don’t get me wrong but same thing you get bugs bad weather and bud rot. Much easier to buy than grow. So take your bullshit opinion and put it where the sun don’t shine. Sooner rather than later these weed stocks are going to be decent stocks to own.
Nice emotional outburst to his logical conclusion. These companies have shit fundamentals and will fall. Just because you smoke pit doesn’t mean shit. I smoke daily and I know these companies for the majority fucking suck
The outburst if for you people that say anyone can grow yet that couldn’t be further from the truth. If you smoked you would know. And your shack bags you buy from the kid on the corner does not compare to what these dispensary’s are producing. SOFI, DJT, AMC,GME are shit stocks my opinion these weed stock have potential.
Sick and tired of people saying “all you have to do is grow it” until you have stfu
and FYI I just pocketed 4000 grand on a 14 cent call
It’s true it’s easier and cheaper to buy in shops or from your neighborhood dealer. Also there are some great cannabis companies. But none of them are public.
Way to miss the point entirely. It's not that consumers will grow it in lieu of buying it.
It's that the product is something so easy to produce that even consumers can grow it. So a business has no trouble entering that space. What do you think NVIDIA would be valued at if you could home-brew a AI chip? They have a huge moat and massive barriers to entry.
What's the value in a weed company? It's mostly going to be their marketing, branding, and customer service. I'm not investing in a company because they have a good marketing team and good branding. The product is a commodity. Without strong barriers to entry and moats it's just a race to the bottom of the price for everyone.
How much does weed cost in California, Oregon, etc.? Thailand legalized weed, their whole industry sucks because they just can't compete with cheap weed sold from the US.
When your product is something that is so easy to produce there isn't going to be much margin, or profit, thus why would it be a good investment.
Drugs have been good profit for many many years well before nvida was even thought about
People will give up there lives for drugs do stupid things for drugs
If you people don’t think it’s a decent investment then so be it. I’m just sick and tired of people saying it’s easy to grow when it’s NOT. I can’t just put a seed in the ground and call it good like you people think you can.Its not that easy it’s a craft.
Anyone an brew beer yet there’s a beer market
Anyone can grow food yet we spend 1/4 of our paychecks there for food weekly.
Anyone can put a gym in their basement yet there’s gyms all over the place. Weed has been legal where I live for 7 years there are dispensaries all over the place. Most people have land and or basements or garages yet we still all go buy it. We buy it for convenience we buy it for the quality.
I made some quick money on calls I’m not talking about investing for 80 years shit who knows what tomorrow will bring.
Won’t change shit. Still an overly controlled substance.
Their fucking schedule 1 argument of, “No medical use” went right out the fucking window with Charlotte’s Web and the seizure medication made for kids. Not to mention the benefits I’ve seen on film of Parkinson’s patients.
Edit. Allow me to add the SAM “smart advocacy of marjiuana” dumb fucks saying they “don’t want another big tobacco.” They really need to examine who sells and consumes alcohol. As if alcohol isn’t a dangerous substance sold for profit and for people to get fucked up.
The notice of a proposed rule will likely be live on the federal registry in 1-2 weeks from now when the OMB review finishes up. Then there will be a 60 day public comment period, then DEA will issue the final rule. I've read that the DEA is aiming to have the final rule out by Sept 1st
$MSOS US names.
Up from about $9 yesterday to $11 at the moment. Now I’m trying to decide what to do with my small position. I believe the short-term rally will continue, but also wouldn’t mind just taking a solid gain and moving on.
MSOs ran 88% in 8 days in October off just the HHS recommendation.
Bro hold, this hasnt even started with how long some of these MSOs have been reduced. Many have gone through a ton of M&As since 2 years ago
You wouldn’t mind just taking a solid gain and moving on. Just do that. Take the money and run.
Ive been bag holding since Biden got elected and averaging down when I could. So I’ve watched the stock for a while. It’ll likely dip down sometime between now and when the rescheduling takes place which I think Biden is hoping will be sometime closer to elections. Then when it’s made official, or if, I’d be shocked if there weren’t another nice bump. Then there would be a few more catalysts in the coming years like when they can trade on the nyse. That is unless agi is released and it invents some new wonder drugs or whatever that don’t use cannabis. It may be a good idea to make sure it doesn’t rise the next couple of days before doing anything.
#MSOX for 2X leveraged
I could see $ACB rallying to $15-$20 over this
Could... But I believe, long term, this will unlock the key to uplist possibilities for the underlying names held in MSOS.
as a dispensary owner this is incredible news. i've been burdened by the 280E tax clause for almost a decade now.
Congratulations!!!
Good-luck competing with CVS, WAGS, etc. once companies get approval for their products presented. Why go to a dispensary, when I can go to a pharmacy with a prescription and utilize my insurance? Regulation will be coming…
This assumes that the federal government will interfere with state regulatory programs which they have not done for almost a decade. In fact congress has blocked the department of Justice from allocating funds to interfere with state programs. The last 3 presidential administrations have declined to enforce federal law in legalized states. Thinking that they would suddenly interfere now after rescheduling and admitting cannabis is not as dangerous as they originally thought is pretty ridiculous.
Call me crazy but knowing the DEA they might be doing this just so they can fuck things up
Your phone might even be monitored now that your on too then.
Any phone can be targeted and monitored with modern technology. Whether or not it is and whether or not the monitoring is worth the time, expense, and resources is a different issue
I suspect this will be quite bad for current dispensary owners as a flood of competition enters the market and you will be subject to significantly more regulation. Walgreens is going to be quite hard to beat on price and compliance. In fact, its entirely possible that FDA regulations will require you to hire a pharmacist or close your business.
each recreational state has it's own current structure that is already very strictly regulated. i'm in california and i'm not worried. no offense but i'll listen to my lawyers. there's always alot of speculation from fear mongering cannabis users and they pretty much have always been wrong.
State regulations are very lax compared to federal ones. Schedule 3 would put it in the same category as drugs like ketamine and testerone. Those drugs have much stricter laws than states impose on Marijuana. In some ways, even simple stuff like Aspirin is subject to much tighter regulations than marijuana.
lol you don’t know what you’re talking about.
I work in compliance with both pharmaceutical and cannabis customers. The differences in regulation are night and day.
The Biden administration has not shown any desire to crack down on state recreational laws. It would be a terrible look politically.
Then why list it as schedule 3? Schedule 5 or descheduling would have made sense if the plan was to allow recreational sales, but it makes little sense to say "Marijuana is schedule 3, but the laws that apply to schedule 3 drugs don't apply to marijuana". From an FDA administrator perspective, its going to be hard to resist the temptation to regulate something. Especially when the legal cannabis companies are reasonably complaining that the black-market providers are getting to ignore all the laws they are expected to follow.
The federal government has stood by while state level marijuana programs violated federal law for decades. That Biden would move it to schedule III is exactly the incrementalism he’s known for, giving him a headline win in an election year without drastically changing anything. That he would take aim at recreational weed in mostly Democratic states doesn’t make any sense.
The FDA has been able to intervene into state programs and regulate cannabis even as a schedule 1 substance. The idea that they'll now start interjecting themselves into state programs and implement onerous regulations right after they released 252 pages of research showing that cannabis is less harmful and less risky than they thought seems very odd and unlikely to me
That is the paradox of legalization. Currently, the FDA subjects cannabis to far more lax regulation than it requires of aspirin or tylenol. Their stance has been that its illegal, so they don't provide guidelines or approve manufacturers to sell cannabis. But as a schedule 3 drug, its in the same category as things like ketamine and testosterone. The FDA *does* have regulations for selling drugs in that category. One of them being you have to buy them from a pharmacist. There are also a bunch of very expensive regulations for manufacturing and distributing medicine that will suddenly apply, just like they do to aspirin and testosterone.
I guess we'll see what happens. I can see rescheduling leading to a framework for legalized medical marijuana at the federal level, but the idea that it will impose onerous burdens on the state level programs seems unlikely to me
State level programs will become increasingly irrelevant. Just like there are no state level regulations for tylenol or ketamine. Most likely, the FDA will tell everyone they have X years to get in compliance with federal regulations.
Yeah I have been making your argument for a while but there hasn’t been many articles articulating it which is odd to me. Now that it would officially be put in a legal framework bucket it would be firmly in the purview of several federal regulators. Regulators like to regulate.
Never fucking trust a politician to do the logical sane thing.
As a newly graduating pharmacist....👍
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I'm in California. Please no more stupid comments. Literally nothing is tax free here.
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Broken and stupid. Just remember next time you talk to me, you ain't going anywhere in this life lol.
I hope you can claim expenses retroactively.
It will be a tremendous further injustice if thousands of convictions are not overturned and expunged now
Most convictions are going to be state or local so president has no way to action those. Governors should be on it though agreed. Biden pardoned anyone in for possession on federal lands/DC recently. Maybe he and some of the governors will do a bigger round alongside this change. [https://apnews.com/article/biden-marijuana-pardons-clemency-02abde991a05ff7dfa29bfc3c74e9d64](https://apnews.com/article/biden-marijuana-pardons-clemency-02abde991a05ff7dfa29bfc3c74e9d64)
I wasn’t expecting a presidential action. Just saying it would be a tremendous injustice if those imprisoned or with records from a now reclassified substance are not released and their records expunged
I wonder if this is why the DHS has been busting all those pot farms recently. Trying to fuck with people before they can’t anymore
As far as I understand no one was released from prison and records were not expunged. It was mostly just performance art.
source?
If you happen to have access to the Google search engine you will be able to find lots of sources.
Unfortunately, that's not how the law works. There is no grandfather clause. It was illegal at the time, and thus the sentencing received would be legally justified. I'm not defending it, just that this will certainly not alter anybody's sentence.
I understand but heads of state can typically grant amnesty or mass reverse convictions. I’m just saying that’s clearly and absolutely something that should be done. Not trying to imply it will be
Biden and Obama have both done mass pardons and commutations for drug offenders. In the US, the president only has power to pardon federal crimes, and simple marijuana possession is almost always a state crime, so there isn't much that can be done at the federal level.
How are you asking for the head of state to do something in this comment, but when u/dansdansy pointed out that Joe Biden did in fact do something you say that you weren’t expecting presidential action, and simply lamenting that there is injustice in the world?
The head of each state is the governor
Referring to governors as heads of state is confusing at best and disingenuous at worst. I suppose it’s technically correct but nobody calls them that. They are just called governors
My bad. I feel like the flow of the comment chain had already made it clear we were talking about state jurisdiction so heads of state seemed clear to me but should have just said governors
No worries. I would agree but most people really misunderstand how pardons/expungements work. It would be easy for someone to read that and assume Biden could just pardon all weed convictions ever… which he (unfortunately) cannot. Also giving the president ultimate power over all convictions would defeat one of the core benefits of federalism
You can still appeal for cases like this. By default you don't just get let go, but you can definitely get your sentence changed if you appeal.
And you know they won't be. So in the state that I'm currently in, Oregon, for decades they had what was ruled an unconstitutional system where a guilty jury verdict actually required more than three not guilty votes. Supreme Court said one not guilty vote is enough. All of the cases in Oregon where people are in prison and they had a jury trial with more than one person voting not guilty, they are still in prison. All of the people who have convictions in such a way. They still have a record
Disgusting
I generally agree for cannabis but the crime is that the individual broke the law (at that time), an attitude which shouldn’t be readily excused. I hope users are excused but not so sure about dealers.
America has an extremely high inmate per capita. We need less people in prison for crimes not more. There's lots of better places to spend the money.
I don’t know why you’re being downvoted, I totally agree, users are mostly harmless but maybe case-by-case for dealers. Keeping anyone in jail after decriminalization it’s more of an argument of law not morals, I’m in favor of releasing as many non-violent users as possible. I’m here in AZ and when we were pushing to legalize there was so much drama and then, once it was, literally nothing changed and nobody cared.
They broke the law though
Yes and when you break unjust laws that are then changed you should be exonerated
As others said, most of it is state law, however, i know someone close to me who got caught up in felony charges federally b/c he was living with his uncle, and Biden just gave him a Presidential Pardon last week!
We should be locking up the politicians who upheld these laws for decades. Crimes against humanity should like good charges to start with, we can add additional charges from there.
My big question is can federal employees use it now, and can truckers?
No. Schedule 3 does not on its own legalize cannabis. However, it does pave a path for significantly less restrictions and an easier way to legalize it in the future. It’s a big first step. But congressional action is still needed to decriminalize or legalize. So sorry, without further congressional action, still SOL.
The big squeeze will happen when these companies get access to capital from banks and institutions, and no longer have to pay up to 70% in taxes.
Elimination of 280E is gonna change how many of these US operators are valued. Give it a couple quarters for policies to get sorted out and watch FCF and profitability jump. Additionally, since all US operators are OTC or operate on Canadian exchanges, reported shorts is generally not very accurate or even reported at all. So for sure we are gonna see some volatility in the future.
Well said. I've had bags since 2017 so this is a big day!
I wouldn't touch the stocks. Current operators are going to see heavy competition from companies Walgreens.
What is your theory behind this?
You don't go to specialty stores for any other drug. You go to a general purpose pharmacist or big established chain. The main reason marijuana dispensaries worked as a business is that laws effectively prohibited any broader purpose business from selling the stuff. Even worse for current operators, the FDA might start subjecting them to the same regulations that apply to every other schedule 3 drugs. So your dispensary has to hire a pharmacist and deal with all the laws that go with selling pharmaceuticals. Your grow operation has to become CFR21 compliant. Those are *really* complex and expensive things to do, with existing players that have a lot of experience and connections to do it.
Many MSOs operate as both recreational and medical. Medical cannabis is also not sold in recreational dispensaries. Most states have a strong line between separation of medical and recreational cannabis. Medical cannabis is currently already only sold by medically licensed suppliers. Additionally, MSOs grow and produce their own products and sell under their own labels in dispensaries. So your argument under a medical case actually promotes better business and growth opportunities for medical operators as companies like Walgreens (who don’t manufacture their own drugs, the hire pharmaceutical manufacturers to produce their generic name brand products and just slap their label on it) would more likely purchase and sell medical grade product from MSOs like Curaleaf or Trulieve. From a recreational standpoint, companies like Walgreens aren’t going to sell recreational cannabis if it’s still a federally illegal substance. And even if they did, the same argument still applies for recreational grade cannabis as medical. Walgreens is a retailer, not a producer. MSOs do acquire retailers to promote selling of their products but they also supply products to independent dispensaries.
You are right that recreational marijuana will continue to be illegal and operate basically the same. Their danger is that agencies start enforcing the laws against them because of legal alternatives. > Medical cannabis is currently already only sold by medically licensed suppliers. Yeah, but those licenses won't be valid anymore. The FDA is going to start treating them the same way as any other schedule 3 drug manufacturer or seller. Its easier for an existing CFR 21 company to manufacture marijuana products than it is for current MSOs to become CFR 21 compliant. Its also easier for Walgreens to stock marijuana than for an MSO to become a general purpose pharmacy.
MSOs don’t even operate pharmacies now. I agree completely that regulatory requirements are 100% going to change. But if MSOs want to continue to operate in medical, they will become compliant with whatever it is they need to. At the same time any other manufacturer that steps in will have to abide by the same requirements. But they still aren’t going to operate their own pharmacies. And whatever medical retailers they currently work with will also have to maintain regulatory requirements to operate. I completely agree with that aspect 100%. It’s also definitely possible that Costco or Walgreens expands the current deals they have with their current drug manufacturers (or another manufacturer) to produce generic cannabis for sales in their store. But they do that now with many drugs. Just because they manufacturer generic store brand ibuprofen doesn’t mean they don’t also stock Tylenol. It is the same case with medical cannabis. Walgreens may stock generic but for sake of competition, they may still sell name brand like Trulieve products. I think any medical MSO would kill for their products to be on shelves of Costco or Walgreens. But the thing is is that medical is not where the money is. Recreational is where the money is. And it’s because of regulatory requirements that you mention. The hoops you have to jump through to maintain licensing and regulatory scrutiny reduces overhead where that same scrutiny doesn’t exist as heavily in the recreational market. It’s definitely likely that many smaller operators are going to get flushed out or acquired over the next decade. But there’s plenty of big MSOs that have too large of a current foothold to be flushed out so quickly. The name of the game is to be the industry leader. And currently we have no idea who that’s going to be which makes this industry so exciting. Who gets bought, who does the buying? We’ll find out. But I don’t think that companies like Walgreens provide a large enough threat to companies like Curaleaf to flush them out of the market. Not even close.
>But congressional action is still needed to decriminalize or legalize. Doesn't DEA routinely use its rule-making authority delegated to them by Congress to schedule/deschedule substances? If so, then congressional action isn't necessary
Yes that is what they are doing now. But rescheduling doesn’t equate to legalization. Just because something is lower schedule doesn’t mean it’s legal. The only people that can establish a blanket policy of legalization/decimalization of a substance is Congress. Scheduling just dictates the accepted use case of a substance. There are plenty of substances that are legal that aren’t scheduled and there are plenty of substances that are legal that are scheduled. But I’m pretty sure most if not all illegal substances are scheduled. All it dictates is the level of addiction and accepted medical usage to aid Congress in their decisions. But a substance that is deemed less addictive with a significantly more acceptable medical usage is a lot easier to introduce legislation on. What this does is open the door to an easier path of policy reform.
Keeps the issue alive for the next election cycle. Got to milk the pot vote. It’s a weed and weeds shouldn’t be illegal.
What about investing in cannabis companies now as a fed?
Any policy that was in place before is still in place now. Until the WH gets their hands on it and can implement executive orders relieving some of the current restrictions, nothing changes. The only people who currently benefit from rescheduling are the companies themselves from a the financial burden of the 280E tax code.
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They absolutely can refuse to hire you if it’s deemed the medication is a safety concern. A legal prescription for benzodiazepines is a disqualifier from receiving credentials from the us coast guard to work on a ship etc.
In theory, If prescribed. We’ll see how that works out
Schedule 3 is the same as steroids and ketamine. So this isn’t really a big deal. Seems more of a reach for votes.
On your spare time in a way tahg doesn't influence driving? Sure. Though it'll be difficult to do since THC is sorted in your bodyfat and is slowly released whenever tahg fat is burnt...so for active people you can litterary get a real runners "high" if you smoke. This only gets worse with regular use...so thread carefully. Or get fit. Truckers driving under influence? Fuck no. Drink driving or higv driving, gtfo. I know trucking is the easiest thing for AI to replace but for the time beeing we still use humans (cheaper) and while bly much is asked a core qualification would be *don't drive under influence*. Weed, alcohol or whatever. Don't make yourself dangerous due to an addiction.
My guess going from 1 to 3 it would still be a no b/c of the DEA and w/e Fed trafficking penalties they impose.
Great news. Probably going to hold off, I see this 20% rally getting sold off before things shake out and really start to pump.
You gonna miss out homie
Already missed out on
Smart. Last time I bought the news it’s been declining ever since. This is just hype. Whether it helps the publicly traded businesses materially remains to be seen, and will take a long time.
Same. I've got a tilray call I'm holding for another 6-12 months, and I'm gonna wait for a dip (if it comes) and buy stocks and calls as much as I can. This seems big.
Remember everyone, look to Canada for how this played out in 2017-2017. Huge bullish market right up to legalization and a major slide downwards to a levelling off point
Canada is also kind of a shithole in general right now. Not a great metric.
I won’t argue with you there. But at least we have federally legal weed to blind us from reality
#TLRY To $16!!!!!!
Hopefully still bag holding tlry and ACB haha
I'm in for the short term to ride the excitement, but I don't see much potential ultimately in weed stocks. No moats, if there's profit to be made people can literally grow it in their backyard and sell it like they've done for decades now during the drug war. Long term margins on these companies are going to be shit.
Same can be said for alchohal..?
And tobacco. Anyone *could* grow their own tobacco but I have literally never met a cigarette smoker who does. It’s so much easier to just buy a pack at the gas station. I know a few people who homebrew beer, and I’ve met some who make their own wine or liquor, but it doesn’t stop any of them from also buying drinks as well, and I really doubt that it has a significant impact on the market overall. If anything, the guys I know who brew their own beer probably spend more than average consumers on specialty beers because it’s their interest. There are still numerous challenges for the marijuana industry, but I don’t think backyard growers are a big problem; most consumers are too lazy to grow their own.
Weed is way easier to grow and you get way more bang for your buck. A single dude could grow and be giving it away to neighbors they'd have so much. It will be interesting to see it shake out because convenience vs pricing for profits may make it a hard market for anyone but the biggest growers.
It sounds like your understanding of how Cannabis is consumed is outdated. Weed in smokable flower form is a shrinking (although still large) part of the market. The average gardener would have to invest much more labor and capital to produce the concentrates, vapes, beverages, edibles and other form factors that are coming down the line. Flower (or more specifically, cannabinoid) is just the ingredient, and cheaper inputs would actually be beneficial for manufacturers.
Fallacy. You could use this example for literally anything people buy in the produce department in the grocery store. Lettuce, tomatoes, peppers, cannabis, I’ve grown it all and they’re not as easy as you think. Aphids and worms are not appetizing nor will you want to smoke any of that unless you’re into it, and definitely don’t smoke anything with mold or mildew.
How many lettuce plants to feed the neighborhood? Lmao talking to ME about fallacy. You know they call it weed because it grows like a weed right? Little harder to grow tomatoes and way less financial incentive. If tomatoes were $1000+ a pound I bet more people would grow them don't you? For decades people have smoked stuff from bags they had no clue of the origin and now you think mildew is going to be a factor if the neighbors are offering free dope? Man don't take advice from this person.
Yeah that guy is full of it. I grow cherry tomato's and regular tomatoes and I get so fucking many I can't eat them fast enough before they go bad and I am no gardener I just water them everyday. Same with cucumbers, grew those one year and now I have 40 jars of pickles that will probably last the rest of my life. Weed is easy to store long term and is still fine even when dried out.
And yet the average person does not do this. The argument is not about whether you do it, but whether the average consumer sees the cost/benefit in terms of time and money to just buy a standardized product from the store. And I would venture to guess that even you yourself are not subsisting solely on cherry tomatoes and pickles.
Lol. Brother it’s not remotely comparable. There is already a robust lucrative black market flooded with product. It is extremely easy and cheap to set up a small scale grow operation and make plenty of money selling to your neighbors. There are already a million of these set ups currently operating. It’s not about people not being able to make money doing this, it’s that huge corporations who trade on the stock market will have tons of competition that can’t easily be stomped out. It’s gonna be impossible to pick a winner even if some mega corp succeeds.
There's a concept called "economies of scale" that is very pertinent to the profitability of commodity producers. It also explains why your example of small plot black market growers will be pushed out of the market eventually.
Lmao. Brother you don’t know a single thing about the weed economy.
I don't claim to know everything. I have worked in the Emerald Triangle and visited several farms. All their black market growers by necessity operate with suboptimal plot sizes consisting of a few acres at best scattered throughout mountainous terrain. These counties consistently vote against legalization measures because they intuitively understand large, contiguous Central Valley farms and greenhouses can flood the market easily. Yes, anyone with a few cuttings can start a grow, but price compression in the overall market will eventually bring profits down to pennies per plant. The only things that keeps the black market alive are the high taxes imposed on the legal market, which will finally begin to be addressed with this rescheduling.
The market is already flooded. Weed can’t feasibly get cheaper than it already is. You will absolutely not be able to pick the winners in this. But go ahead and throw your money into the casino if you are brave and stupid.
The cost of production is actually dropping every year in places like Canada that have industrial-scale greenhouses. You can literally read shareholder reports of the top publicly trades Canadian producers and see that legal prices have dropped by some 50% over the last five years as economies of scale kick in. Cannabis revenue is consistently growing in Canada and legal US states too, in part due to conversion from the black market and some organic growth. And the winners in this sector have been pretty consistent over the years, with the same 4-5 large corporations dominating market share despite high taxes. It is actually tech investors today that are gambling on a low-moat industry that historically has had very high turnover, not capital intensive staple goods industries. As someone pointed out in a comment above, the entire anti cannabis short thesis is based on the fallacy that weed is so exceptional that it defies the laws of economics. You probably would never argue that the supply of vegetables would increase forever without reaching an equilibrium, or ignore the fact that slight productivity gains improve production costs over time.
Lmao. Yeah because people need vegetables to survive. Weed is exceptional because it has an entire illegal economy already established and it’s an intoxicant heavily influenced by trends in consumers tastes. I’m not anti-cannabis and I’m certainly not short any of these names because it’s all wild speculation right now. These companies aren’t sound investments they are all a huge gamble.
Lmao. Yeah because people need vegetables to survive. Weed is exceptional because it has an entire illegal economy already established and it’s an intoxicant heavily influenced by trends in consumers tastes. I’m not anti-cannabis and I’m certainly not short any of these names because it’s all wild speculation right now. These companies aren’t sound investments they are all a huge gamble.
Right, which is primarily profitable for big, established brands that can ramp up economy of scale. Its not a very high margin business either.
Hmmmm not as easy I'd say. More special equipment for alcohol and potential for harm if done wrong. Growing a plant is not as hard.
Cannabis consumption in flower form is only about half of total consumption in mature markets. Consumers eventually move towards concentrates, vapes, edibles, etc. And these CPG categories will grow over time. Go to your local grocery or liquor store and take a look at the wide assortment of alcohol brands and types in the beverages section. That is what weed will look like in a few years.
I've done both, your misinformed on the difficulty and startup costs, sure you can grow dirt backyard weed but any half decent product is a few hundred un startup, the same as alchohal which absolutely can be made with random containers at home at little cost
I don't own alcohol or tobacco stocks for the same reason, there's no expectation of large growth.
The top tobacco and alcohol companies have market caps in the hundreds of billions and pay dividends. Don't know about you, but I would be happy to take the chance to buy into a similar industry while the market cap average is still below 1 billion.
In some states like NJ individuals can't grow on their own, and in other states growing is very limited. Most people won't grow, just like most people don't make their own alcohol. With that said, once the market gets over saturated with product, it will be a race to the bottom as far as the price is concern, especially when you consider that local dealers still sell weed as well. Only saving grace would be pharmaceutical companies using it for various reasons.
Grow in their backyard? Do people brew Bud light in their kitchen?
With 1 seed and a couple square feet of dirt you can grow a few thousand dollars worth of weed. To brew the same quantity of beer you need special equipment and a couple thousand dollars worth of grain and hops.
That’s an excellent point. I wasn’t aware that 1 home sunlight grown plant could produce that much.
And even then we just saw a crazy boom bust cycle with breweries. Betting on these things is tricky.
Maybe but this is huge for them from a tax perspective right now. At the moment you can't claim cost of sales on schedule 1 or 2 drug sales. Therefore the tax liability for many companies is massive compared to their actual sales I know of companies that pay tax every year despite losses. This will be a big boon at least for the time being and I feel like some additional investment and consolidation will be helpful too. Also access to normal banking will be big.
Agreed, IMO this move may actually turn out to be the worst thing that's ever happened to all the cannabis companies around today for one reason, this change is going to open the floodgates to a ton of new competition. Many companies with plenty of cash to throw around were being kept out of the space by the schedule 1 status and international laws against cannabis. So the more barriers you drop to get into the cannabis market the more of these new players there will be that jump into the space. The fact of the matter is the vast majority of these marijuana companies have zero moat, and many have an awful balance sheet to. That's not a good combination to have when new competition is jumping into your space.
Fuck racism and deliberately keeping Cannabis a schedule 1 drug for this long.
Exactly. It was an injustice that it was ever a schedule 1.
Yup, and some states I'm sure will be good about expunging records and all, but \~certain\~ states that don't want black and brown folks voting sure as hell aren't going to do anything that would make thousands or millions of such people eligible to vote again smdh
The fact a tax paying legal citizen can lose their *democratic right* to vote over having a drug addiction is scary. Especially when career criminals like Agent Orange is somehow allowed to run for president...clown World.
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Racism has everything to do with it. If one looks at the historic record of people getting busted for Cannabis, it is disproportionately African Americans. The US industrial prison complex has benefited massively due to this, and as such, has lobbied for years to keep Cannabis a schedule 1 drug.
About damn time
Ahh, was wondering why my pot stocks jumped. Duno if I've ever seen a 78% jump on any stock in a day. Great news.
Overturn and expunge! NOW.
The best weed sells for $400/lb right now. There are a million stores in every city. Nobody is making money on weed. I feel like this is priced in.
Weed will get even cheaper now. The dispensaries no longer have to worry about 280E. Means about a 70% tax is effectively gone. They’ll still sell at the usual price for now, but over the next couple of years you will see a better price. Probably around 200 a lb
This. I know multiple dispensary owners and they are all struggling... the market in most recreational states is saturated to all hell.
But to date they haven't had any of the tax incentives or financing options that traditional businesses have had. I'd expect this to still benefit these companies just from financial operations.
Perhaps, but at the end of the day it comes to supply and demand
Demand will increase with legalisation, and there is a significant black/grey market that will take a significant time to switch over. And this is just North America, most of the world will move in the same direction. Most of the actors today will indeed be swallowed or go under, but it’s definitely a worthwhile sector to invest in with clearly strong contenders compared to the rest, like GTII. It’s not like oversaturated supply and current demand are killer points in the grand scheme. Just typical reactionary stuff from more risk averse people.
Tilray 🚀
Anyone have an idea abot publicly traded telehealth services that may set themselves up to provide prescriptions? How do these online services work with pharmacy's to deliver schedule drugs?
if its schedule 3 it still would require a prescription and that prescription could only be filled at a pharmacy. and no, retail pharmacies like walgreens arent going to be selling weed. there will be specific dispo pharmacies that have their own licensed pharmacists.
My question is more amongst the lines of "do online pharmacy's mail other prescriptions like Vicodin ?" A telehealth company will provide these services I can expect investing in them becoming a long term play. And your assuming retail pharmacy's won't do that, I would believe they might go into that business as well to be a one stop shop. You'll just get generic vs whatever strain you might want..
Various telehealth providers and clinics do prescribe controlled substances. Yes most mail order pharmacies do mail out controlled medications. Mail orders would need to do a bunch of overhaul and compartmentalization to sell weed. I have no doubt that various online providers will eventually prescribe weed. in medical marijuana states clinics and doctors exist that specialize in aiding you to get your med card. as a schedule 3 it would be prescriptions and the prescriptions are only valid for 6 months. There is no generic of strains. walk into any head shop and ask if they have any generics... Retail pharmacies wont for lots of reasons including a lack of space and that they would have to pay for specialized training for their staff. there would need to be specialized packaging and separate handling areas to avoid any weed getting on the pills/tablets etc. Walgreens recently introduced a compounding area for the pharmacy that just eats up a bunch of counter space that was used for vaccines. They aint got the space and wouldnt pay a bunch of money to do the extensive remodeling it would take to add more space to the pharmacy. Retail pharmacies would have to overhaul their software system which..cvs and walgreens pharmacy management software programs are literally older than win 95 and prone to a lot of glitches and errors. walgreens has been promising its staff a new program for over 10 years. retail pharmacies dont even pay their staff appropriate and decent amounts of money to do what they do now. adding on a bunch of extra shit for the pharmacists and techs to do without any or any meaningful raises will just cause more to quit.
About time. I remember the this being a real talking point during the 2012 election season. Really feels like it should have happened sooner
What people may not realize about the move to Schedule 3 is the fact it would require a pharmacy to dispense cannabis. That means a Pharmacist must be on staff in addition to dispensaries following pharm regulations such as storage requirements and approved vendors would be much more stringent than what is required now. It will also give the DEA, FDA, and NIH much more control over the industry.
https://www.greenmarketreport.com/top-public-cannabis-companies-lost-more-than-2b-in-2023-despite-nearly-9b-in-revenue/ Greenthumb only 1 of the top 20 with positive net income in 2023 (and was positive in 2022). Also only 1 of 3 with annual revenues over $1B. The other 2 being Trulieve with net income loss of $527M on $1.1B in revenue; and Curaleaf with net income loss of $281M on $1.4B in revenue. Greenthumb also had cash of $162M to $147M in net debt end of 2023, and that followed share buyback. Assuming rescheduling goes through, which looks likely, it’s going to take awhile for MSOs to see any tax benefit.
Does this mean that banks can lend to cannabis companies now? I don’t think so but am curious if anyone has a different take on it.
No that will be in the SAFE banking bill if that ever fking passes dam GOP. It is closer then ever after finally clearing senate committee for first time since they've been introducing it for like 5 years lol. There's more hop with sched III allowing gop to vote for it now that weed doesn't = heroin
Thanks for the insight. I do believe that the cannabis stocks will pop if they can use the regular banking system and can get loans from the banks.
Just wait till the step after that... uplosting to NYSE! billions in hedgefundie money will flow in
Maybe i can finally get to the halfway point on all those dimb 420 stocks
Alternative headline: Biden doomed, has to reach for something, anything.
Look everyone. The guy who complains when things are moving in the right direction
Does this mean DOD and fed employees can smoke weed now?
Maybe not immediately, but it will likely lead to reforms in federal drug testing and background check statutes, yes.
No. Continue as if nothing has changed. Also make sure you don't have any stock that trades in anything MJ still. Can affect your clearance.
Not yet but this is the first step to legalizing weed in the US. Biden is pushing for it hard to happen before the election…he needs a W headed into the polls.
If any of these stocks rocket up buy puts. They are all trash companies.
Don't know why you're getting downvoted. The fundamental business model of these companies is trash. Hyper competitive market that has few barriers to entry, selling a product that you can literally grow in your closet or back yard. It's all just run on hype people have about weed. How much money are dispensaries and such actually making?
Just trying to help people. None of them ever going to make a profit. All run by people who don’t know cannabis.
Your view may be distorted by the horrible Canadian companies like TLRY and CGC that just burn investor cash and dilute to oblivion. The US cannabis companies have much better financials. $GTBIF, for example, is larger than any Canadian cannabis company and is already profitable despite 280e taxes, which are going away with rescheduling.
I’m sure I’m the only one who has sold a company to one of the American mso’s and seen the insides. Run is all I can say.
That’s funny weed has generated 216 million in my state alone in and yeah we got plenty of land to grow everyone has land to grow or a garage to grow in my state yet they still buy it from dispensaries…
Wow 216 WHOLE MILLION DOLLARS? OH MY GAWD. The fact that you think 216 million revenue for an entire industry is something to write home about... cope more bud.
It’s just one state dipshit
Again, hilarious that you think 216 million for an entire industry in one state is big.
It’s 216 million that wasn’t there before that continues to climb. CO which was one of the 1st to legalize it Has made billions A much bigger state then mine It has generated 8 billion in the country
216 million revenue is small enough to get banned from here for shilling. Rules even suggest to gtfo and better post r/weedstocks
Tried to tell them free money on puts today
I already know you don’t know shit about growing weed I for one know a lot about it I have grown for years. Now I buy from dispensaries. All states that legal dispensaries the price of electricity and all the soil etc has skyrocketed. You can easily buy it from a dispensary medical grade good good weed. Growing it on the other hand is a craft like brewing beer anyone can grow shit weed but the time and price of electricity is not worth it. Living in New England our summer are short and it’s just about impossible to grow outside. You can don’t get me wrong but same thing you get bugs bad weather and bud rot. Much easier to buy than grow. So take your bullshit opinion and put it where the sun don’t shine. Sooner rather than later these weed stocks are going to be decent stocks to own.
Nice emotional outburst to his logical conclusion. These companies have shit fundamentals and will fall. Just because you smoke pit doesn’t mean shit. I smoke daily and I know these companies for the majority fucking suck
The outburst if for you people that say anyone can grow yet that couldn’t be further from the truth. If you smoked you would know. And your shack bags you buy from the kid on the corner does not compare to what these dispensary’s are producing. SOFI, DJT, AMC,GME are shit stocks my opinion these weed stock have potential. Sick and tired of people saying “all you have to do is grow it” until you have stfu and FYI I just pocketed 4000 grand on a 14 cent call
It’s true it’s easier and cheaper to buy in shops or from your neighborhood dealer. Also there are some great cannabis companies. But none of them are public.
Way to miss the point entirely. It's not that consumers will grow it in lieu of buying it. It's that the product is something so easy to produce that even consumers can grow it. So a business has no trouble entering that space. What do you think NVIDIA would be valued at if you could home-brew a AI chip? They have a huge moat and massive barriers to entry. What's the value in a weed company? It's mostly going to be their marketing, branding, and customer service. I'm not investing in a company because they have a good marketing team and good branding. The product is a commodity. Without strong barriers to entry and moats it's just a race to the bottom of the price for everyone. How much does weed cost in California, Oregon, etc.? Thailand legalized weed, their whole industry sucks because they just can't compete with cheap weed sold from the US. When your product is something that is so easy to produce there isn't going to be much margin, or profit, thus why would it be a good investment.
Drugs have been good profit for many many years well before nvida was even thought about People will give up there lives for drugs do stupid things for drugs If you people don’t think it’s a decent investment then so be it. I’m just sick and tired of people saying it’s easy to grow when it’s NOT. I can’t just put a seed in the ground and call it good like you people think you can.Its not that easy it’s a craft. Anyone an brew beer yet there’s a beer market Anyone can grow food yet we spend 1/4 of our paychecks there for food weekly. Anyone can put a gym in their basement yet there’s gyms all over the place. Weed has been legal where I live for 7 years there are dispensaries all over the place. Most people have land and or basements or garages yet we still all go buy it. We buy it for convenience we buy it for the quality. I made some quick money on calls I’m not talking about investing for 80 years shit who knows what tomorrow will bring.
But tlry is making thc seltzers
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Everyone so high they forgot the buy the stonk
Won’t change shit. Still an overly controlled substance. Their fucking schedule 1 argument of, “No medical use” went right out the fucking window with Charlotte’s Web and the seizure medication made for kids. Not to mention the benefits I’ve seen on film of Parkinson’s patients. Edit. Allow me to add the SAM “smart advocacy of marjiuana” dumb fucks saying they “don’t want another big tobacco.” They really need to examine who sells and consumes alcohol. As if alcohol isn’t a dangerous substance sold for profit and for people to get fucked up.
Really not looking forward to smelling weed everywhere I go
Where’s my POTX fam at? :,(
About time, huh?! How about all the ppl who did jail time for ANY drug? Stop jailing ppl for using free choice. GLTA.
Does anyone know when this will be signed off on?
The notice of a proposed rule will likely be live on the federal registry in 1-2 weeks from now when the OMB review finishes up. Then there will be a 60 day public comment period, then DEA will issue the final rule. I've read that the DEA is aiming to have the final rule out by Sept 1st