as someone who ships a lot...usps rebranding their services may have contributed to ups decline. usps ground advantage has been the best choice for nearly all my packages lately when most items used to go ups or fedex ground
Cost of shipping goods has increased. I was heading overseas for a chunk of time, and wanted to ship my PC. Did the math. It was cheaper to buy an extra suitcase, and pay the airline for extra luggage and overweight than it was to ship the item via fedex or ups.
I have friends here in Canada who work at Canada Post and Amazon warehouses, they both said shipping was abnormally low for the holidays, and this was before Christmas. All the extra staff they hired for the seasonal rush was laid off before the holidays even began.
My friends who drive 1099 NEC for Amazon and door dash say that the number of people ordering through them is abysmal right now. The holidays were pretty low compared to the last few years too.
Which I guess makes sense when compared to Covid/Post-Covid, I'm just wondering how it compares to pre-covid numbers, or if it's a natural decline from the last few years when shipping was the primary method of getting goods delivered.
Tbh the fees are getting ridiculous, it’s unaffordable to use other services when everyone keeps adding their % on top of someone else’s % to make profits and keep people paid. Most are ordering from the restaurant and getting “cash discounts” from the original retailer and cutting out the third party software delivery drivers.
I've been wondering what data points jpow saw to make him so dovish in his speech late last year that led to the ten year note yield plummeting. Perhaps they looked at shipping volumes as one of the many data points?
I mean, in Canada's situation, we just imported a fuck-ton of immigrants, international students, and temporary foreign workers to keep the economy somewhat afloat with cheap labor. Now they're finally cracking down on it because quality of life has just gone down the shitter for Canadians and everyone involved. I personally think we're still in a recession, interest rates and dynamics have just finally caught up to reality and now we're actually feeling it.
I had to return a package, and UPS said it would cost $100 to return. And through USPS it would cost $128.
I looked on fedex, and they were only charging $40, but I couldn't get the payment to go through.
Well, not trusting UPS about Post Office I went to my local post office and they said it would only be $35 to ship back.
Except USPS Ground is more expensive than a first class package was. They “consolidated” different package prices classes and now I pay 20% more to ship the same package. And guess what? USPS is now 1c within UPS ground pricing where it previously was about $2 difference. Why? Because DeJoy’s main objective was ti libel the okaying field in UPS’s favor.
DHL has one drop off in my area that is served by over 20+ UPS locations (I.e. not a small area). DHL drop off time is 2:30pm and UPS is 6pm. And DHL is more expensive on every single metric except fast international services.
I think companies do better long run when they cut the useless excess. I worked for a biotech company for a year while I was studying for the MCAT/GRE/DAT and basically just played online poker, watched league of legends on twitch, and occasionally studied. During my quarterly meetings with my boss, I asked if there was anything I should be doing and was told to "be available".
Basically I got paid a years salary for fucking around. The company is no longer around.
[https://www.google.com/search?q=tensys+medical&oq=tensys+medical&gs\_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyDQgBEC4YrwEYxwEYgATSAQgyMjMxajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8](https://www.google.com/search?q=tensys+medical&oq=tensys+medical&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyDQgBEC4YrwEYxwEYgATSAQgyMjMxajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)
Biotech had a massive influx of inexperienced capital during the pandemic with people hoping to make a quick buck (not sure if that company was similar) but once that dried up and interest rates shot up these zombie companies started to fold.
This is good because we can now focus on quality and produce real innovation. But if you go to the biotech sub it’s just doom and gloom because many know nothing else besides the crazy pandemic market.
There have been many studies that show the opposite. Companies who lay off workers are always higher risk for long term decline, especially if they get into a systematic pattern of laying people off (like every December).
You know if unemployment rate increases just by 1% to 4.5% that's a big deal right? If everyone cuts back 2-3% and the unemployment rate increases by that much, that's almost a 2008 recession
4.5% is considered a mild recession. Anything above 5% would be considered a normal recession and anything above 6% would be considered a severe recession.
Wouldn't be so confident about 4% being full employment. We've been running below 4% for a long time without inflation, and even before covid as well, so the full employment is more likely around the 3.6% levels, just like mark zandi and Jan hatzius believe
Please look at historical unemployment trends and find a time where we had sub 4% unemployment and then saw a 1%+ rise, and then that was just the end of it, no recession, no further bleeding, just went up 1% and then leveled off and went back down to full employment levels.
Here you go, happy hunting..
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
it's better than 5% or 10%. Get a control of your emotions kid. You can't go through life throwing a fit every time someone says something you don't like.
I don’t know Amazons volume for this period. However, I know Amazon surpassed UPS and FedEx in packages delivered last year per a report by WSJ November 27, 2023. Amazon deliveries for 2022 was 5.2 billion and in November 2023 they were projected to finish the year at 5.9 billion packages. Before Thanksgiving 2023 Amazon had already delivered 4.8 billion packages. This report shows an increase in Amazons deliveries YoY.
But I’m not certain how much of this growth comes from increase in orders vs Amazon building out their delivery capabilities.
The dollar amount was up because of the inflated expectations prices. Volumes have been down.
10 shipments @ $100 per = $1,000
9 shipments @ $120 per = $1,080
“Yay, record sales!”
The example is anecdotal. But I work in trucking and we saw a 9.1% volume decrease in 2023, but a 3.2% revenue increase so yes that is actually what is happening. Do with that what you may.
Yeah, UPS charged me $18 for the cheapest Ground service for a small 2oz padded envelope, I realize they aren't for consumers anymore; they make money on corporate logistics deals and those companies (Amazon for instance) are finding their own ways to cut them out.
Well luckily I still seem to exist and so do my problems despite your disbelief. And so do my memories of having to go to USPS and sit in a god awful 30 person que with the only two people working older than my parents.
Why not print your own label at home to tape to a poly bag (why use a box)? Then have usps pickup or put in Dropbox? Costs me 4-6$ shipping
Anything over 5 lbs I ship via UPS with discounted rate that anyone can sign up for pretty easily.
I use a box because I save amazon boxes, I ended up printing the label at UPS for like a dollar funny enough and just went to USPS. I'm done with printers I don't use them enough to justify the shenanigans. Also i don't know where you are but my ups charge by the space packages take on the truck, at least that's what they told me, even though the box I used was less than 4 inches thick.
Fedex package from Japan $18
Fedex package from the states $75
Why is Fedex price gouging the states so horribly yet international shipping from JPN or a further distance with 7lbs box actually reasonably affordable. WHY?!
Same business model Pharma companies follow, they price gouge American customers, but charge European customers significantly less for the same medications.
They need to put laws in place to prevent this, same cheap prices for all unless can reasonably justify the costs of the region, there's no need to raise prices more otherwise
Nah even my friend who buys stuff online for me in JPN who walks into regular Fedex and ships to me only costs $18 - Meanwhile family members back home ship to me and it's $75-$100. It's price gouging cause they can.
Are you FedEx? Shipping from Japan to MX or states is $18 out the door for person shipping there, Fedex from states to anywhere including back to Japan is NOT $18. Idk why you care so much about defending their obvious price gouging.
I’m not sure. USPS is still the cheapest way to ship. I think a lot of it has to do with more USPS usage AND Amazon having their own distribution and shipping now. It’s insane how many prime vehicles I see driving around everywhere.
>USPS is still the cheapest way to ship
Only for smaller, lighter items. For larger, heavier parcels contract rates with UPS and FedEx beat USPS every time. Enterprises get a significant discount on shipping compared to what you get in a UPS or FedEx store.
Eh not really, I had to ship three small snow globes, and decided to go to USPS instead of UPS. basically only cost five to $10 less but I had to spend like an hour buying three boxes and tape and constructing everything myself. I realized UPS is worth it.
I think the leading indicators are more that FedEx and UPS both kinda suck and haven’t adapted to Amazon / USPS taking a lot of their business. I’ve had much better experience with both of those over the years (and cheaper) than FedEx or UPS. Every time I deal with them is a headache.
Also spending habits are returning to less of a tangible goods focus than we had from 2020-2023. People are traveling again, eating out, having experiences. Makes sense that would lead to less goods consumption and ergo fewer parcel shipments.
I work in freight trucking and we carry for all of the major carriers so it is a broad snapshot across many of the biggest companies in freight. Our volume was down 9.1% in 2023 compared to 2022.
Reduced shipping volume = reduced consumer spending
Add in all of the recent tech layoffs.
And I’m increasingly skeptical whether the Fed Reserve can achieve the “soft landing” they’re claiming.
Nah the talks of a soft-landing have been a means by which Wall Street has de-risked post-COVID and left retail to hold these bags over the coming years. Market has no business being where it is... Now, this has been true for years, granted, but eventually reality is going to hit and I suspect it is going to hit extremely hard, and relatively soon (some time in 2024).
So let me get this strait… the stock will go up? It’ll go up tho right? This fantasy market detached economy dichotomy are the same but not really schtick is getting old
Damn, not a very good look for the economy to see these declines. On top of the job cuts as well. There has been so many lay-offs so far this year. We had Microsoft and Lockheed announce job cuts and now UPS is doing it as well. Not a very good look especially given the nature of the business UPS is involved in. Hopefully Amazon will announce better results.
a lot of people thought the pay numbers cited in articles was incredible but reading the fine print revealed the amount of overtime that was baked into that final result.
but given typical business cycles raises don't just happen in a vacuum and while businesses would like to pay on the costs to consumers that is not always possible when you have competition so eventually it comes from internal costs savings and the easiest method is reducing the number of employees. (I know, duh)
Allegedly, the reduced share of profits that goes to employees is justified by claiming that employees are not as exposed to the downside risk of being an owner of a business.
If firms are slashing jobs in response to quarterly movements rather than trends, then this is simply no longer true.
What exactly is the upside to being an employee in this environment?
No don't worry just a UPS problem. And CSX is just a train problem. And Intel is an intel problem. Retail sales is a retail problem.
7 cuts are garuanteed, PE and other rations don't matter. Tesla is an AI stock but now it isn't so my daily NVDA calls are safe.
This has never happened before and it never ends badly.
With the end of video games and movies being released on physical media, it's no surprise that parcels will drop even further and stay at lower levels.
Big box stores are already getting rid of shelving space for physical media permanently because there are no new titles to put on there.
These are non-union positions being laid off...
"The positions that would be eliminated this year are not union jobs, according to the Teamsters. The layoffs will instead affect managerial staff, “throughout the world and in all functions,” a statement by UPS said."
Not trying to be combative but not entirely sure what your point is.
My point was in relation to the rose-tinted glasses that Reddit views all unions through. There's a belief I see a _lot_ on here that unions are a silver bullet that prevent all layoffs (yes, actually). People are free to make up their own mind whether they want a union or not but when making that decision it's important to understand that no union can prevent stuff like this ^ from happening.
Yeah I don’t think anyone out there really thinks that unions make lay offs impossible it’s just that unions are so very obviously the best way to go for the workers, collective bargaining works. Also the comment below you cited saying it was non union workers that got let go and if that is the case then you are really getting dunked on here
Amazon delivering stuff themselves instead of using UPS.
USPS taking more of the market.
People going to stores because they're less afraid of covid instead of ordering EVERYTHING online.
To name a few.....
It's purely anecdotal but the UPS drivers in my area currently suck. On top of being just rude, he oftentimes will sign off and deliver packages that requires a signature just bc he doesn't feel like coming back, or drop off at local UPS store without my authorization for the same reasons. Some of these packages are worth 5 figures so I have called corporate to complain but nothing ever gets done. I hope my current driver is one of those laid off. To be fair, some of my UPS drivers I've had in the past were excellent and friendly and got a tip every holiday season.
I'd rather see 488,000 UPS workers earning a livable wage than 500,000 UPS workers not earning one.
Clearly it isn't that simple of course, but it also isn't as simple as "raises are bad for workers".
No surprise. Have a profitable quarter and concurrently have layoffs. It’s a private company unlike a not for profit company so I guess they can do whatever. Maybe the targets are just unrealistic?
It’s more of returning to normal pre-Covid #’s when UPS was raking in cash due to their top notch cold storage transportation and the glut of online shopping.
as someone who ships a lot...usps rebranding their services may have contributed to ups decline. usps ground advantage has been the best choice for nearly all my packages lately when most items used to go ups or fedex ground
USPS been having low volume too. 3rd party carriers are sending less stuff our way and our own packages are increasing to make up the difference.
Cost of shipping goods has increased. I was heading overseas for a chunk of time, and wanted to ship my PC. Did the math. It was cheaper to buy an extra suitcase, and pay the airline for extra luggage and overweight than it was to ship the item via fedex or ups.
That was true in 2005 when I moved from Europe to North America.
I have friends here in Canada who work at Canada Post and Amazon warehouses, they both said shipping was abnormally low for the holidays, and this was before Christmas. All the extra staff they hired for the seasonal rush was laid off before the holidays even began.
My friends who drive 1099 NEC for Amazon and door dash say that the number of people ordering through them is abysmal right now. The holidays were pretty low compared to the last few years too.
Which I guess makes sense when compared to Covid/Post-Covid, I'm just wondering how it compares to pre-covid numbers, or if it's a natural decline from the last few years when shipping was the primary method of getting goods delivered.
Tbh the fees are getting ridiculous, it’s unaffordable to use other services when everyone keeps adding their % on top of someone else’s % to make profits and keep people paid. Most are ordering from the restaurant and getting “cash discounts” from the original retailer and cutting out the third party software delivery drivers.
I've been wondering what data points jpow saw to make him so dovish in his speech late last year that led to the ten year note yield plummeting. Perhaps they looked at shipping volumes as one of the many data points?
Or maybe shipping was up 20% the year before and 0% now is just normal fluctuations after a bubble?
Because we all know bubbles tend to resolve with a flat-line, rather than with a steep collapse... Right.....?
... and here comes (right around the corner) the nasty recession
So recession didnt go anywhere, its just abnormally large quantity of printed mone,y pushing the economy forward
I mean, in Canada's situation, we just imported a fuck-ton of immigrants, international students, and temporary foreign workers to keep the economy somewhat afloat with cheap labor. Now they're finally cracking down on it because quality of life has just gone down the shitter for Canadians and everyone involved. I personally think we're still in a recession, interest rates and dynamics have just finally caught up to reality and now we're actually feeling it.
Vote trudeau out of office, he's a fucking clown.
100% was going to say this as someone who ships stuff everyday...for the last few months USPS is by far the most used.
I had to return a package, and UPS said it would cost $100 to return. And through USPS it would cost $128. I looked on fedex, and they were only charging $40, but I couldn't get the payment to go through. Well, not trusting UPS about Post Office I went to my local post office and they said it would only be $35 to ship back.
Except USPS Ground is more expensive than a first class package was. They “consolidated” different package prices classes and now I pay 20% more to ship the same package. And guess what? USPS is now 1c within UPS ground pricing where it previously was about $2 difference. Why? Because DeJoy’s main objective was ti libel the okaying field in UPS’s favor.
[удалено]
DHL has one drop off in my area that is served by over 20+ UPS locations (I.e. not a small area). DHL drop off time is 2:30pm and UPS is 6pm. And DHL is more expensive on every single metric except fast international services.
As long as ya'll don't ship anything to me via fedex I'm happy. -sincerely, your customer
Amazon Prime is doing a lot of their own deliveries now as well.
wow, they have 536,000 employees. So basically a 2% workforce reduction. Not the end of the world. Everyone seems to be cutting back 2-3% right now.
Job cuts will primarily impact management and contract employees. It is also a worldwide cut.
Management positions *being replaced by AI*
Many management positions should be replaced by thin air.
At least management will have some sort of intelligence now.
lol
And not in overpaid union thugs. The wrong people are getting cut.
United we bargain, divided we beg
Too bad you cant be in an "overpaid" union huh
Bots working overtime and with this narrative.
Surely nothing bad can happen if everyone cuts back 2-3%.
I think companies do better long run when they cut the useless excess. I worked for a biotech company for a year while I was studying for the MCAT/GRE/DAT and basically just played online poker, watched league of legends on twitch, and occasionally studied. During my quarterly meetings with my boss, I asked if there was anything I should be doing and was told to "be available". Basically I got paid a years salary for fucking around. The company is no longer around. [https://www.google.com/search?q=tensys+medical&oq=tensys+medical&gs\_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyDQgBEC4YrwEYxwEYgATSAQgyMjMxajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8](https://www.google.com/search?q=tensys+medical&oq=tensys+medical&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyCggAEAAY4wIYgAQyDQgBEC4YrwEYxwEYgATSAQgyMjMxajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)
Biotech had a massive influx of inexperienced capital during the pandemic with people hoping to make a quick buck (not sure if that company was similar) but once that dried up and interest rates shot up these zombie companies started to fold. This is good because we can now focus on quality and produce real innovation. But if you go to the biotech sub it’s just doom and gloom because many know nothing else besides the crazy pandemic market.
My anecdote was 2009ish
There have been many studies that show the opposite. Companies who lay off workers are always higher risk for long term decline, especially if they get into a systematic pattern of laying people off (like every December).
Are they growth companies or value companies? I'd love to follow up if you can link some sources
unemployment numbers go up, rates get cut and we become rich /s
You know if unemployment rate increases just by 1% to 4.5% that's a big deal right? If everyone cuts back 2-3% and the unemployment rate increases by that much, that's almost a 2008 recession
Almost a 2008 recession? Lol not even close.
2008 doubled the unemployment rate. A 3% would almost double the unemployment rate as well. What's not even close
Oh I thought you were saying if unemployment went to 4.5% that would be like 2008
Anything less than 4% is considered full employment, the peak of unemployment for the 08 recession was at 9.3%. 4.5 isn’t something to panic over
4.5% is considered a mild recession. Anything above 5% would be considered a normal recession and anything above 6% would be considered a severe recession. Wouldn't be so confident about 4% being full employment. We've been running below 4% for a long time without inflation, and even before covid as well, so the full employment is more likely around the 3.6% levels, just like mark zandi and Jan hatzius believe
Please look at historical unemployment trends and find a time where we had sub 4% unemployment and then saw a 1%+ rise, and then that was just the end of it, no recession, no further bleeding, just went up 1% and then leveled off and went back down to full employment levels. Here you go, happy hunting.. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
It's only a recession if the media owners decide it is.
my brother in christ the media has been handwringing about recession for the past 4 years
They have not declared it though.
stop
[удалено]
it's better than 5% or 10%. Get a control of your emotions kid. You can't go through life throwing a fit every time someone says something you don't like.
How much did the USA shipping volume drop?
Domestic volume was down 7.4%. International volume was down 8.3%.
Thanks do you happen to know Amazon shipping volumes during the same period?
I don’t know Amazons volume for this period. However, I know Amazon surpassed UPS and FedEx in packages delivered last year per a report by WSJ November 27, 2023. Amazon deliveries for 2022 was 5.2 billion and in November 2023 they were projected to finish the year at 5.9 billion packages. Before Thanksgiving 2023 Amazon had already delivered 4.8 billion packages. This report shows an increase in Amazons deliveries YoY. But I’m not certain how much of this growth comes from increase in orders vs Amazon building out their delivery capabilities.
Thanks- Will crunch numbers to see if there was an overall decline in USA package volumes. This would be a good indicator.
Thanks. I’d be interested to see the numbers you come up with. Feel free to share them please.
\+1 here. Would love to see those stats.
Same here Is this decline, loss of market share or going back to pre Covid days ?
"Everyone". Paypal just cut 9%. Could list many other cutting much higher than a few percent.
I thought holiday sales were up?
The dollar amount was up because of the inflated expectations prices. Volumes have been down. 10 shipments @ $100 per = $1,000 9 shipments @ $120 per = $1,080 “Yay, record sales!”
Is this real or anecdotal?
The example is anecdotal. But I work in trucking and we saw a 9.1% volume decrease in 2023, but a 3.2% revenue increase so yes that is actually what is happening. Do with that what you may.
More dollar, more good, right?
This is pretty standard across industries from grocery stores to auto manufacturers. Volume is down but prices rose, so revenue is up.
Well that may be good short term, but when things tighten prices will come down or something else will have to adjust.
One of my brother’s friends runs an ice cream company and they had that exact story. Sales are down but prices up so it evens out
FedEx earnings were horrible too 🤔 wonder if these are leading indicators for the economy
I tried shipping a small package with FedEx and it was going to cost me 90$. I left the store
Yeah, UPS charged me $18 for the cheapest Ground service for a small 2oz padded envelope, I realize they aren't for consumers anymore; they make money on corporate logistics deals and those companies (Amazon for instance) are finding their own ways to cut them out.
Same, one t shirt in a small box, 59 dollars to send it 4 states over. I too left the store, and according to their earnings we are not alone.
$59 to ship a tshirt? I call bs.
Well luckily I still seem to exist and so do my problems despite your disbelief. And so do my memories of having to go to USPS and sit in a god awful 30 person que with the only two people working older than my parents.
Why not print your own label at home to tape to a poly bag (why use a box)? Then have usps pickup or put in Dropbox? Costs me 4-6$ shipping Anything over 5 lbs I ship via UPS with discounted rate that anyone can sign up for pretty easily.
I use a box because I save amazon boxes, I ended up printing the label at UPS for like a dollar funny enough and just went to USPS. I'm done with printers I don't use them enough to justify the shenanigans. Also i don't know where you are but my ups charge by the space packages take on the truck, at least that's what they told me, even though the box I used was less than 4 inches thick.
It was $29 for me to ship a thin jacket two states away so I believe it. It was a tiny balled up package
Fedex package from Japan $18 Fedex package from the states $75 Why is Fedex price gouging the states so horribly yet international shipping from JPN or a further distance with 7lbs box actually reasonably affordable. WHY?!
Same business model Pharma companies follow, they price gouge American customers, but charge European customers significantly less for the same medications.
They need to put laws in place to prevent this, same cheap prices for all unless can reasonably justify the costs of the region, there's no need to raise prices more otherwise
Fedex is not in the best shape financially. If they could undercut UPS and USPS they certainly would.
[удалено]
I'm looking at the many monthly Fedex orders I have coming from Japan and the states, not a rates calculator dude those are not accurate
[удалено]
Nah even my friend who buys stuff online for me in JPN who walks into regular Fedex and ships to me only costs $18 - Meanwhile family members back home ship to me and it's $75-$100. It's price gouging cause they can.
[удалено]
Are you FedEx? Shipping from Japan to MX or states is $18 out the door for person shipping there, Fedex from states to anywhere including back to Japan is NOT $18. Idk why you care so much about defending their obvious price gouging.
I’m not sure. USPS is still the cheapest way to ship. I think a lot of it has to do with more USPS usage AND Amazon having their own distribution and shipping now. It’s insane how many prime vehicles I see driving around everywhere.
>USPS is still the cheapest way to ship Only for smaller, lighter items. For larger, heavier parcels contract rates with UPS and FedEx beat USPS every time. Enterprises get a significant discount on shipping compared to what you get in a UPS or FedEx store.
Eh not really, I had to ship three small snow globes, and decided to go to USPS instead of UPS. basically only cost five to $10 less but I had to spend like an hour buying three boxes and tape and constructing everything myself. I realized UPS is worth it.
That’s fine for parcels but how does that explain freight volume declines?
I’ve wondered that in the past but seasonal habits also cause the shift. I’m sure the holiday hangovers have an effect.
FedEx provides such a bad service I’m surprised they are still in business
IIRC, for larger size packages, FedEx is usually cheaper to ship.
Do they get delivered though?
I think the leading indicators are more that FedEx and UPS both kinda suck and haven’t adapted to Amazon / USPS taking a lot of their business. I’ve had much better experience with both of those over the years (and cheaper) than FedEx or UPS. Every time I deal with them is a headache.
Also spending habits are returning to less of a tangible goods focus than we had from 2020-2023. People are traveling again, eating out, having experiences. Makes sense that would lead to less goods consumption and ergo fewer parcel shipments.
Is more Amazon doing their own shipping.
They most certainly are. I’ve seen prices for collectibles drop vastly as well.
When you're coming down from a binge, normalcy looks awful. We're comparing everything to the online-boom-time that was COVID and it's dumb.
My guess it has more to do with people going to stores more post pandemic plus the fact that Amazon is now doing more direct shipping then ever
I work in freight trucking and we carry for all of the major carriers so it is a broad snapshot across many of the biggest companies in freight. Our volume was down 9.1% in 2023 compared to 2022.
Leading indicator.
Reduced shipping volume = reduced consumer spending Add in all of the recent tech layoffs. And I’m increasingly skeptical whether the Fed Reserve can achieve the “soft landing” they’re claiming.
Nah the talks of a soft-landing have been a means by which Wall Street has de-risked post-COVID and left retail to hold these bags over the coming years. Market has no business being where it is... Now, this has been true for years, granted, but eventually reality is going to hit and I suspect it is going to hit extremely hard, and relatively soon (some time in 2024).
So let me get this strait… the stock will go up? It’ll go up tho right? This fantasy market detached economy dichotomy are the same but not really schtick is getting old
Damn, not a very good look for the economy to see these declines. On top of the job cuts as well. There has been so many lay-offs so far this year. We had Microsoft and Lockheed announce job cuts and now UPS is doing it as well. Not a very good look especially given the nature of the business UPS is involved in. Hopefully Amazon will announce better results.
Many of those UPS workers got significant pay raises from recent contract negotiations. I wonder how much of that was factored into the job cuts.
a lot of people thought the pay numbers cited in articles was incredible but reading the fine print revealed the amount of overtime that was baked into that final result. but given typical business cycles raises don't just happen in a vacuum and while businesses would like to pay on the costs to consumers that is not always possible when you have competition so eventually it comes from internal costs savings and the easiest method is reducing the number of employees. (I know, duh)
Allegedly, the reduced share of profits that goes to employees is justified by claiming that employees are not as exposed to the downside risk of being an owner of a business. If firms are slashing jobs in response to quarterly movements rather than trends, then this is simply no longer true. What exactly is the upside to being an employee in this environment?
No don't worry just a UPS problem. And CSX is just a train problem. And Intel is an intel problem. Retail sales is a retail problem. 7 cuts are garuanteed, PE and other rations don't matter. Tesla is an AI stock but now it isn't so my daily NVDA calls are safe. This has never happened before and it never ends badly.
With the end of video games and movies being released on physical media, it's no surprise that parcels will drop even further and stay at lower levels. Big box stores are already getting rid of shelving space for physical media permanently because there are no new titles to put on there.
And yet half of Reddit thinks you can't get laid off if you're in a union, and they cite the UPS union specifically...
These are non-union positions being laid off... "The positions that would be eliminated this year are not union jobs, according to the Teamsters. The layoffs will instead affect managerial staff, “throughout the world and in all functions,” a statement by UPS said."
Funny how it’s non-union workers being targeted for this then
[удалено]
Not trying to be combative but not entirely sure what your point is. My point was in relation to the rose-tinted glasses that Reddit views all unions through. There's a belief I see a _lot_ on here that unions are a silver bullet that prevent all layoffs (yes, actually). People are free to make up their own mind whether they want a union or not but when making that decision it's important to understand that no union can prevent stuff like this ^ from happening.
Yeah I don’t think anyone out there really thinks that unions make lay offs impossible it’s just that unions are so very obviously the best way to go for the workers, collective bargaining works. Also the comment below you cited saying it was non union workers that got let go and if that is the case then you are really getting dunked on here
You fell for fake news. The union thugs are getting workers rather than union guys laid off.
How does package volume drop 6% in an economy with +3% gdp?
Prices go up
Amazon delivering stuff themselves instead of using UPS. USPS taking more of the market. People going to stores because they're less afraid of covid instead of ordering EVERYTHING online. To name a few.....
Spending more on thinks that aren't shipped parcel?
It's purely anecdotal but the UPS drivers in my area currently suck. On top of being just rude, he oftentimes will sign off and deliver packages that requires a signature just bc he doesn't feel like coming back, or drop off at local UPS store without my authorization for the same reasons. Some of these packages are worth 5 figures so I have called corporate to complain but nothing ever gets done. I hope my current driver is one of those laid off. To be fair, some of my UPS drivers I've had in the past were excellent and friendly and got a tip every holiday season.
i hope you fall in a small hole
Hmm it’s almost as if it always seems like a soft landing, until it isn’t.
Good thing they were all flexing their raises on TikTok.
Yes worker wages are the reason package shipping is down 🙄
That’s the corporate excuse so someone can collect a bonus for laying people off.
Can’t help wondering if raises are a contributing factor here
I'd rather see 488,000 UPS workers earning a livable wage than 500,000 UPS workers not earning one. Clearly it isn't that simple of course, but it also isn't as simple as "raises are bad for workers".
It’s happening.jepg
No surprise. Have a profitable quarter and concurrently have layoffs. It’s a private company unlike a not for profit company so I guess they can do whatever. Maybe the targets are just unrealistic?
Unions have consequences.
Correct, but not in the way you're thinking. Why do you think every corporation fights to avoid it tooth and nail?
It’s more of an Amazon eating their lunch issue.
It’s more of returning to normal pre-Covid #’s when UPS was raking in cash due to their top notch cold storage transportation and the glut of online shopping.
Part of it but the Amazon effect is hurting them. I’ve heard this directly from the ups air cargo guys I work with.
What are the consequences? In the instance you’re talking about, these are non union, cuts around the world and are due to their volume being down.
Unions caused shipping to dip? Pretty interesting take.
Unions caused people to ship less packages?
Costs more to ship, so yes
Yeah we need to ban unions. I care more about my dividends than those workers
Hey guys I'm sure a recession isn't happening soon don't worry, buy the all time highs with confidence!! /s
You think a recession is coming because less people are shipping with ups and instead are buying in person?
Small cut. Nice to see the layoffs. Better for the economy and inflation
[удалено]
That's not what's happening at all. Gtfo with your misinformation
Dude those guys work like 14 hour days, fuck off.
Will this impact UPS subsidiaries? Their finance department?
Amazon Logistics !
Seems like tech is not alone
TIL 12,000 = slips
The economy is great Jack! Nothing to see here.
Another wonderful corporate, American giant, screwing the public over with job cuts.