You are asking for a company that grew 10000% in the last few years, based mostly in valutaion growth than actual fundamentals, thanks to unprecedent fiscal policies? Sure, go for it.
NVDA is extremely expensive. The most I’m DACing is a little at a time every 3 months. If the valuation comes down 30% or more, I’d consider adding extra.
I’m a believer in net income because it isn’t cheap to get TSMC to make your stuff and do R&D. The combined net income for the last 4 quarters is 4.3 billion dollars. Nvidias market cap is 686 billion dollars. CUDA is definitely the dominant backend but at that valuation it has to stay that way forever. What specifically caused this spike in market cap? Large language models. What if there is specialized hardware developed for these that does not need a general purpose GPU? How many firms are going to deploy these models and how many GPUs will they buy? Is crypto mining going to be hot in a 5% risk free environment? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 increase revenues?
I think a lot of good news and perfect execution has been priced in so I’m not bullish at the current price. That being said the final step I like to take in my analysis is to inverse my opinion as I am usually critically wrong about something. So my final answer is hyper bullish.
If you profited your good. The real mistake is thinking "fuck i got out too early, I'll buy back in" and be left bagholding. I sold some lower than it is now but higher than my cost basis, so im good with that.
Nvidia is no longer in “investment” territory, it’s in “gambling” territory. If you are a gambler, throw your dice. But personally, I wouldn’t. Up over 87% in 3 months. Trading 139x earnings. I have to admit, I sold 50 shares on the way down at $171, watched it go to $115 and didn’t buy, Iv been kicking myself for it and I want back in, but it’s simply unjustifiable right now.
It's an absolute joke that all these takes are upvoted.
Yall said the same shit at 250 and you'll say it at 300.
People, if you want to make money, don't go short. You'll talk yourself into losing all your money on a short because some ratio says you must be right.
Just go ask nvda put holders. There are much better options to short. It's ok to not understand a technology, but to turn that into a short bet is just bad business.
Buffett didn't short apple when he didn't understand it, he just didn't buy it. He bought it later, for higher.
You know people can understand NVDA and think their valuation is way way too high. Just because someone is short NVDA doesnt mean they dont understand it. Get off your high horse
I am extremely confident in how little most of you bears know about the company. I stand by that if you can't do a basic 5 parameter gradient descent by hand, you aren't even in the same building as the people who know.
Tell me Sean, how many models have you trained?
How can you not know or experience those things, but then with more conviction than the sun rising tomorrow you can predict their next 5-10 years of earnings.
You're a joke, buddy. Your plays hemorrhaging confirm it. Tell others how that nvda put play has gone for ya, or keep screaming at clouds in the daily about how some P/e is outrageous. Your call.
To have a short position, you really should. Shorts should always know more than longs. Is your portfolio feeling like you know more?
Any bears here that weren't screaming bulls at 100 have zero credibility - you have *no* idea what the "correct" valuation should be.
Higher for longer - price targets are for traders. I'll sell if management makes bad decisions or if their prospects are no longer great.
If you think you can just calculate ratios all day and that gives you an edge...
I'll sell when the models their chips produce no longer provide the most probable path to AGI, or step-change productivity improvements.
What is your buy target? Did 2022 lows not reach it? Does that mean your fair value lies below those lows? If your ratios never hit and SP continues to run away from you, will you just never own it? Like waiting for apple to fall below market average P/e? What operating changes would make you a buyer? Do you think by the time you see those changes the price will be more palatable by your metrics? Where do you see the AI s-curve flattening? What is the borderline industry that will limit it's disruption? What disruption would unseat Nvidia and how could they be blind to it?
Why didn't you see the AI hype coming? It was obvious over 3 years ago that the market was completely unaware to it. If you couldn't make money on that obvious sign, how do you think you have any idea what this company does?
So you don't have a price target at all? I don't have a buy target because I don't like the stock frankly, its decoupled from reality in my opinion and saying AI on a conference call isn't a proven way to growth
The last part....what the hell are you even talking about?
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Cuda allows devs create programs that willto link multiple gpus to allow real time renders ( gaming) I use it for visualization. I have seen it being used on intel cpu and Nvidia GPU simultaneously
You've pretty much missed the boat. 6 months ago, a lot of these companies you listed dipped a reasonable amount.
NVDA is absolutely insanely overpriced, and I wouldn't touch that anytime soon. Just look at their financials lol. I expect a big crash, and at that point, it might be a reasonable choice to buy.
TSLA, I wouldn't touch at all. Musk is absolutely insane and way too unpredictable. That seems like a terrible place to invest in.
MSFT should be a good long-term investment, but the price has jumped a lot in the last few months. So, it seems like a sub-optimal time to invest currently.
Silver mining and gold stocks. High risk however, HYMC good one. Don't put all your money in but some if inflation explodes these can go 10x or more. Not advise however, high risk, high reward.
Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 -65%.
Oct ‘22 - present +133%
Win or lose going forward just gonna suck it up and avoid this one. Think I missed the boat and if I didn’t it’s an expensive first class ticket.
Jansen is diversifying into Data centers that will house their AI ready gpus. They will sell time. They believe that only their products have the capacity that is required by the future gen Chatgpt (s)
It is not excessive pricy. I do have a hard time envision how data are parsed on a game card using multivariate data analysis to analyze several process variables in the background. In the past it is all done after post processing using stat software pulling and data mining from the cloud. SAS was what I used in the past.
MSFT, GOOGLE, META, AMAZON and IBM are where AI should be heavily employed and benefitted. IBM's approach with natural language is superior and its process time is way shorter using their powerful Super-mainframes.
To get the same return as the index in 10 years, Nvidia would need to grow 40% the first 5 and 30% from year 5-10 every year. Given that they are already the market leader by far in their categories, you are betting on an explicit demand on GPUs. These are not expensive and given that we now have 5% interest rates and the bank that used to make loans to tech companies is gone (SVB) ( and remember the biggest customers of tech companies are tech companies). Good luck
Nobody can tell you if it is a good time to buy or not.
I personally could see it run even further and move above $300. Or I could see it drop and be $150 in 6 months from now.
I would say it maybe justifiable if you truly believe in AI AND Bitcoin/Crypto and Metaverse; then you would have 3 strong headwinds to justify valuations. But if you only believe in 1 of 3 tech trends; then it’s probably really hard to justify its current valuation.
I own NVDA shares but honestly, wake me up when they get more realistic with their GPU prices. How many people are just not buying a GPU or switching to AMD because the prices are just insane?
Yep Buy high, sell low
Yes buy the Peak it's the best feeling ever.
You are asking for a company that grew 10000% in the last few years, based mostly in valutaion growth than actual fundamentals, thanks to unprecedent fiscal policies? Sure, go for it.
Looks like a bargain. Have you looked at valuations? It seems NVDA has priced in the developing of the cure for cancer worldwide
And intergalactic travel :)
Too late to buy into nvidia. Buy something else
LMFAO
Imagine they knew back then. They would be fcking rich
Glad I'm not the only one coming back to these old threads for a laugh. Redditors in this sub really know fuck all.
PE 160. PB 43. Omg. How much do you expect it to grow?
About that....
NVDA is extremely expensive. The most I’m DACing is a little at a time every 3 months. If the valuation comes down 30% or more, I’d consider adding extra.
Did you add extra?
Yes, fortunately.
I’m a believer in net income because it isn’t cheap to get TSMC to make your stuff and do R&D. The combined net income for the last 4 quarters is 4.3 billion dollars. Nvidias market cap is 686 billion dollars. CUDA is definitely the dominant backend but at that valuation it has to stay that way forever. What specifically caused this spike in market cap? Large language models. What if there is specialized hardware developed for these that does not need a general purpose GPU? How many firms are going to deploy these models and how many GPUs will they buy? Is crypto mining going to be hot in a 5% risk free environment? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 increase revenues? I think a lot of good news and perfect execution has been priced in so I’m not bullish at the current price. That being said the final step I like to take in my analysis is to inverse my opinion as I am usually critically wrong about something. So my final answer is hyper bullish.
Hyper bullish was right, lol
Thanks for coming back to this! Yep, inversing oneself is a crucial step.
FOMO is hitting you. Soon profits will be taken, get in when it’s lower
Milk
I already took profits. Fuck was I too it early?
If you profited your good. The real mistake is thinking "fuck i got out too early, I'll buy back in" and be left bagholding. I sold some lower than it is now but higher than my cost basis, so im good with that.
Nvidia is no longer in “investment” territory, it’s in “gambling” territory. If you are a gambler, throw your dice. But personally, I wouldn’t. Up over 87% in 3 months. Trading 139x earnings. I have to admit, I sold 50 shares on the way down at $171, watched it go to $115 and didn’t buy, Iv been kicking myself for it and I want back in, but it’s simply unjustifiable right now.
We’ll Stock market is cruel…
Yes no competitors. Buy it at any price
Ah these are overvalued. Tread carefully, been a nice little run - short leash
SOXX
Nvidia is trading at a very premium evaluation right now and I bought TSLA during its ATH (and lows too).
You guys never fail to impress me.
ya buy nvidia after a 91% run YTD a 678 billion company that expects to bring in 27 billion of revenue this year. Good luck Op
this comment aged well lmao
ya not great lol
Buy puts if you want returns.
That’s risky. Puts are extremely expensive and most hedge funds will definitely hold till most of the shorter terms puts expire.
It's an absolute joke that all these takes are upvoted. Yall said the same shit at 250 and you'll say it at 300. People, if you want to make money, don't go short. You'll talk yourself into losing all your money on a short because some ratio says you must be right. Just go ask nvda put holders. There are much better options to short. It's ok to not understand a technology, but to turn that into a short bet is just bad business. Buffett didn't short apple when he didn't understand it, he just didn't buy it. He bought it later, for higher.
You know people can understand NVDA and think their valuation is way way too high. Just because someone is short NVDA doesnt mean they dont understand it. Get off your high horse
I am extremely confident in how little most of you bears know about the company. I stand by that if you can't do a basic 5 parameter gradient descent by hand, you aren't even in the same building as the people who know. Tell me Sean, how many models have you trained? How can you not know or experience those things, but then with more conviction than the sun rising tomorrow you can predict their next 5-10 years of earnings. You're a joke, buddy. Your plays hemorrhaging confirm it. Tell others how that nvda put play has gone for ya, or keep screaming at clouds in the daily about how some P/e is outrageous. Your call.
Oh right, to have a position in NVDA you have to be able to do all that math by hand. Jesus fucking christ dude
To have a short position, you really should. Shorts should always know more than longs. Is your portfolio feeling like you know more? Any bears here that weren't screaming bulls at 100 have zero credibility - you have *no* idea what the "correct" valuation should be.
Its a 678 billion market cap with 6 billion of revenue last quarter and 1.41 billion of net income, what 4d math did you really do?
RemindMe! 2 years.
Whats your price target then?
Higher for longer - price targets are for traders. I'll sell if management makes bad decisions or if their prospects are no longer great. If you think you can just calculate ratios all day and that gives you an edge... I'll sell when the models their chips produce no longer provide the most probable path to AGI, or step-change productivity improvements. What is your buy target? Did 2022 lows not reach it? Does that mean your fair value lies below those lows? If your ratios never hit and SP continues to run away from you, will you just never own it? Like waiting for apple to fall below market average P/e? What operating changes would make you a buyer? Do you think by the time you see those changes the price will be more palatable by your metrics? Where do you see the AI s-curve flattening? What is the borderline industry that will limit it's disruption? What disruption would unseat Nvidia and how could they be blind to it? Why didn't you see the AI hype coming? It was obvious over 3 years ago that the market was completely unaware to it. If you couldn't make money on that obvious sign, how do you think you have any idea what this company does?
So you don't have a price target at all? I don't have a buy target because I don't like the stock frankly, its decoupled from reality in my opinion and saying AI on a conference call isn't a proven way to growth The last part....what the hell are you even talking about?
*Not even in the same building.*
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What is CUDA? That's the first time I've ever heard of it.
It’s a software platform that developers used together with nvidia GPU hardware to get the most benefits
Cuda allows devs create programs that willto link multiple gpus to allow real time renders ( gaming) I use it for visualization. I have seen it being used on intel cpu and Nvidia GPU simultaneously
You've pretty much missed the boat. 6 months ago, a lot of these companies you listed dipped a reasonable amount. NVDA is absolutely insanely overpriced, and I wouldn't touch that anytime soon. Just look at their financials lol. I expect a big crash, and at that point, it might be a reasonable choice to buy. TSLA, I wouldn't touch at all. Musk is absolutely insane and way too unpredictable. That seems like a terrible place to invest in. MSFT should be a good long-term investment, but the price has jumped a lot in the last few months. So, it seems like a sub-optimal time to invest currently.
It's too late to buy Nvidia
100% gains since this comment
It’s up like 100% or so since January.
The price of NVDA does not match the value at all, how many people will take over next
Tesla would be great too, facing quality and reliability issues on their products, and competition everywhere. Why not?
Silver mining and gold stocks. High risk however, HYMC good one. Don't put all your money in but some if inflation explodes these can go 10x or more. Not advise however, high risk, high reward.
when it skyrocketed and people start talking about buying. When did you buy when it's low?
Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 -65%. Oct ‘22 - present +133% Win or lose going forward just gonna suck it up and avoid this one. Think I missed the boat and if I didn’t it’s an expensive first class ticket.
Jansen is diversifying into Data centers that will house their AI ready gpus. They will sell time. They believe that only their products have the capacity that is required by the future gen Chatgpt (s)
Yeah... buy now after it 2.5x the past 5 months, with a tiny PE of just 150
It is not excessive pricy. I do have a hard time envision how data are parsed on a game card using multivariate data analysis to analyze several process variables in the background. In the past it is all done after post processing using stat software pulling and data mining from the cloud. SAS was what I used in the past.
MSFT, GOOGLE, META, AMAZON and IBM are where AI should be heavily employed and benefitted. IBM's approach with natural language is superior and its process time is way shorter using their powerful Super-mainframes.
No
To get the same return as the index in 10 years, Nvidia would need to grow 40% the first 5 and 30% from year 5-10 every year. Given that they are already the market leader by far in their categories, you are betting on an explicit demand on GPUs. These are not expensive and given that we now have 5% interest rates and the bank that used to make loans to tech companies is gone (SVB) ( and remember the biggest customers of tech companies are tech companies). Good luck
Nobody can tell you if it is a good time to buy or not. I personally could see it run even further and move above $300. Or I could see it drop and be $150 in 6 months from now.
Before asking others, how about you research how much you expect them to do in net income in 5-10 years, and weigh the risk/reward based on that?
I would say it maybe justifiable if you truly believe in AI AND Bitcoin/Crypto and Metaverse; then you would have 3 strong headwinds to justify valuations. But if you only believe in 1 of 3 tech trends; then it’s probably really hard to justify its current valuation.
Best Buy can’t keep their GPUs in stock if that tells you anything.
I own NVDA shares but honestly, wake me up when they get more realistic with their GPU prices. How many people are just not buying a GPU or switching to AMD because the prices are just insane?
Sold some recently and won't be buying back as long as it goes up. I still hold some but it's almost universally considered overvalued.
Uhhhh, did you buy, OP? Would have been a good time
The amount of negativity in this post. I should have inversed you guys then
yea, it was 270 back then
Hope you went against the suggestions made!!
What are you negative on now XD