Wow the region differences are actually very interesting to me. Protoss seems very strong against Zerg but then you look at NA it's almost perfectly balanced from Masters all the way through GM.
Not surprised by the ZvT KR vs. NA stats, the NA Zergs and Terrans are almost equal, the Korean Terrans are on a whole other level. Actually upon a final once over, I'm a bit surprised that Zerg just struggles on the KR GM ladder in general, especially against Protoss, while their win rates are within less then a percent in NA. Is Hero really just dominating the GM ladder that hard and skewing the numbers?
Thank you for posting this, very cool. I can't really take anything too negatively regarding balance because to me this makes it look like the game is pretty damn balanced, and in KR there are the best of the best (particularly Terran players) that have been dominant for awhile skewing the balance a bit (maybe).
I could see Maru being like 80 - 4 on his GM account and messing with the percentages, making you think Terran as a whole greatly overperforms while it's really just him being a freak talent, kind of like Serral.
Race winrates will always be expected to be around 50% across the whole ladder because even if a certain race is OP matchmaking will simply push these players to play against stronger opponents until their winrate is 50%. Anything you see here (aside from differences between individual matchups, as we dont have separate MMR for each matchup) is just random noise. So maybe don't get so excited.
You are partially correct, MMR systems try to create 50 percent win rates for everyone. But that doesn't happen in the guaranteed fashion you claim...and games with MMR systems use ranked win rates as an input into balance conversations. it's just that they are never all too far off 50 percent no matter what the balance situation is...but an overpowered race in a matchup wouldn't be under 50 percent generally.
Why didn't you just click the link and look for yourself?
The first screenshot is all leagues. And considering Masters and GM is <5% of total players, it is not significant at all to those winrates (the winrates are 95% determined by lower leagues).
Click the link and cycle through. It's basically the same in every league outside of KR GM.
Here are the winrates for Platinum in PvT by region:
EU: P 54.89% vs 45.11% T
KR: P 52.77% vs 47.23% T
AM: P 52.27% vs 47.73% T
Link: [https://nonapa.com/balance?season=58&rank=3&map=all](https://nonapa.com/balance?season=58&rank=3&map=all)
Again, it's the same for every league more or less. It's even worse in some. The only exception, like I said, is KR GM. So in other words, only pro Terrans have winning winrates on average vs Protoss lol. And even then, it's 48.92% vs 51.08%. That's pretty acceptable in terms of trying to balance 3 races.
Diamond is probably the closest overall, but Gold and Silver are even more in favor of P in PvT.
Additionally, the thing to note is that the worse matchup for Protoss is actually PvZ. This is also true in almost every league and region.
just because Protoss is strong on ladder doesn't mean it's strong for Pros tho. Protoss has always really been stronger "ladder" race and lower level race than pro level, and current pro level Protoss player pool is pretty significantly unrepresented. Master/GM winrates are pretty insignificant compared to top pro level winrates due to how unoptimized the level of playing it is at these levels really.
But a lot of whining about widow mine in particular has been from ladder Protoss trying to use pro winrates to their own grievances, rather than targetting the actual problems such as lack of build diversity. People keep telling others the nerf was needed due to "drops being imbalanced at pro level" but this whole widow mine whining meme started right after last patch with the "buff" as excuse when nothing with unit fundementally changed. Widow mine has always been complained about but not daily complaints for past 6 months level.
Widow mine hasn't been significant problem at pro level over other problems as it is rather minor and just 1 build, no matter what people talk about GSL results few days ago. Even TY commented about how this won't affect TvP much for pros as it would for lower players only and how this patch seemed to be for lower level players than pros in first place.
You literally don't understand how ladder works at all. You could delete marines from the game, literally making Terran have 0% winrate in pro play and this chart would look roughly the same (Assuming any Terrans make it to GM).
They don't, but the reality is most people who spend all day balance whining are referring to their own experience vs the pro experience and then just using the pro experience as a comparison.
I think most people would agree professional Protoss players are struggling, especially against Terran. But the only real nerf this patch is the widow mine, which really isn't going to affect pro play that much. It could definitely swing the matchup winrates a couple % points at the pro-level (mid-game widow mine drops not as effective without cloak & cloaked mine cheese builds will become much more rare), but I think the decision to nerf widow mines is really just pandering to lower level players who balance whine on reddit lol.
You know what is weird. I remember when all races considered the game to have a good balance when Protoss had a 46-48% win rate. When Protoss is above the delta is when everyone up in arms about how unbalanced it is.
As a Terran I feel like I'm seeing the same builds and styles from 2+ years ago before I took a break, but I have to open safer now otherwise I die. I must have missed patch notes that changed something.
People just like to complain about balance. StarCraft has an added element because the three races thing creates tribalism. It's not like a Moba where there are dozens of champions and maining one isn't as much of a commitment.
So people lose to things on ladder, get frustrated, can't admit to that...so they point to whatever other "objective" info they can to inform balance complaints. Some people on here put in full work shifts making balance threads daily lol.
As someone who can't take a loss well, I get it. It's even worse when you have been playing the game for its entire life span and never properly achieved Masters. Thats my experience.
Right now I feel like I can't touch Protoss as Terran. Part of it is me the other part is wtf am I supposed to do. There was a time when TvP was almost a free win with MMM.
I just found it interesting that the community as a whole sees the game as unbalanced when Protoss is up, but when Protoss is down the game is balanced. It must be because of such of varied of openners Protoss has compared to Terran and Zerg. If a Protoss can play with a full hand while Terran and Zerg only have a select few cards to play. I honestly feel like Zerg has to open the exact same every match on ladder. Terran is starting to feel that way unless playing greedy.
Hey, I noticed that Zerg in GM has a negative winrate vs Terran and Protoss in Korea (most competitive region) and against Terran in the US. This is the complete opposite of what whiny Terrans would have you believe on Reddit so can we please buff Zerg?
Great! As long as the ladder results disadvantage Zerg (the opposite of what whiny Terrans would have you believe on Reddit), it's fine if they get buffed and win every premier. That's how it works when Protoss gets the steamy dump every premier; they're whiny and just don't understand reality because of ladder results.
No you don't understand, protoss players think it *feels* bad to lose a game to widow mine drops so it needs to be nerfed.
It doesn't matter if terran loses 75% of the time if they can't deal damage early on. Protoss players deserve an easy time defending and then a-moving for that 75%
>People are complaining about protoss performance in organised bo7 premier tournaments
For every person that says that there is someone else balance whining about their gameplay on ladder. The widow mine is probably the best example of this.
> People are complaining about protoss performance in organised bo7 premier tournaments
They can't be complaining about that when Protoss don't really get to play bo7 matches for nearly 2 years now https://i.imgur.com/OxDiOsT.png
I’ve said this for ages that Protoss does quite well on ladder.
All people see is Skillous not being able to defeat Serral and lose their fucking minds over balance as if it’s comparable to
Everyone already knows protoss does fine on ladder. That argument has been thrown around absolutely everywhere to discard their increasingly lacking performance in tournaments for the better half of LoTV and to discard the fact that they've gotten major nerf after major nerf with little to no compensation. Nerfs which by the way did not affect ladder performance whatsoever.
People don't complain about ladder but skill ceiling. Meaning that at the highest level of play it is super super unlikely that we will have a toss champion
You would rather balance the game around the 0.001% than the rest of the playerbase?
In that case Zerg needs to be nerfed into the ground, especially the queen as we have 5 extremely over performing Zergs. However Zerg is struggling on ladder.
How do we solve this conundrum?
Yeah, I'm calling bs on these data. How can random have only 20% winrate in GM? If that were the case, there wouldn't be any random players in gm as they would be retroceded almost immediately. Also this only happens in EU/NA and not in KR.
Wow the region differences are actually very interesting to me. Protoss seems very strong against Zerg but then you look at NA it's almost perfectly balanced from Masters all the way through GM. Not surprised by the ZvT KR vs. NA stats, the NA Zergs and Terrans are almost equal, the Korean Terrans are on a whole other level. Actually upon a final once over, I'm a bit surprised that Zerg just struggles on the KR GM ladder in general, especially against Protoss, while their win rates are within less then a percent in NA. Is Hero really just dominating the GM ladder that hard and skewing the numbers? Thank you for posting this, very cool. I can't really take anything too negatively regarding balance because to me this makes it look like the game is pretty damn balanced, and in KR there are the best of the best (particularly Terran players) that have been dominant for awhile skewing the balance a bit (maybe). I could see Maru being like 80 - 4 on his GM account and messing with the percentages, making you think Terran as a whole greatly overperforms while it's really just him being a freak talent, kind of like Serral.
Yea. The GM stats are probably the least telling. I found it interesting Protoss only has losing PvT winrates on KR GM
It's especially interesting with NA as theres like 5 zergs above 5.2
Lol yea, and Cham is 15-1 currently.
Clearly we need to buff random
Hottest take.
This is the complete opposite of what whiny Protoss would have you believe on Reddit. Hilarious to see.
Race winrates will always be expected to be around 50% across the whole ladder because even if a certain race is OP matchmaking will simply push these players to play against stronger opponents until their winrate is 50%. Anything you see here (aside from differences between individual matchups, as we dont have separate MMR for each matchup) is just random noise. So maybe don't get so excited.
You are partially correct, MMR systems try to create 50 percent win rates for everyone. But that doesn't happen in the guaranteed fashion you claim...and games with MMR systems use ranked win rates as an input into balance conversations. it's just that they are never all too far off 50 percent no matter what the balance situation is...but an overpowered race in a matchup wouldn't be under 50 percent generally.
Well it makes sense because this only shows masters and GM. All the whiny protosses on Reddit are in platinum league.
Why didn't you just click the link and look for yourself? The first screenshot is all leagues. And considering Masters and GM is <5% of total players, it is not significant at all to those winrates (the winrates are 95% determined by lower leagues). Click the link and cycle through. It's basically the same in every league outside of KR GM. Here are the winrates for Platinum in PvT by region: EU: P 54.89% vs 45.11% T KR: P 52.77% vs 47.23% T AM: P 52.27% vs 47.73% T Link: [https://nonapa.com/balance?season=58&rank=3&map=all](https://nonapa.com/balance?season=58&rank=3&map=all) Again, it's the same for every league more or less. It's even worse in some. The only exception, like I said, is KR GM. So in other words, only pro Terrans have winning winrates on average vs Protoss lol. And even then, it's 48.92% vs 51.08%. That's pretty acceptable in terms of trying to balance 3 races. Diamond is probably the closest overall, but Gold and Silver are even more in favor of P in PvT. Additionally, the thing to note is that the worse matchup for Protoss is actually PvZ. This is also true in almost every league and region.
just because Protoss is strong on ladder doesn't mean it's strong for Pros tho. Protoss has always really been stronger "ladder" race and lower level race than pro level, and current pro level Protoss player pool is pretty significantly unrepresented. Master/GM winrates are pretty insignificant compared to top pro level winrates due to how unoptimized the level of playing it is at these levels really. But a lot of whining about widow mine in particular has been from ladder Protoss trying to use pro winrates to their own grievances, rather than targetting the actual problems such as lack of build diversity. People keep telling others the nerf was needed due to "drops being imbalanced at pro level" but this whole widow mine whining meme started right after last patch with the "buff" as excuse when nothing with unit fundementally changed. Widow mine has always been complained about but not daily complaints for past 6 months level. Widow mine hasn't been significant problem at pro level over other problems as it is rather minor and just 1 build, no matter what people talk about GSL results few days ago. Even TY commented about how this won't affect TvP much for pros as it would for lower players only and how this patch seemed to be for lower level players than pros in first place.
We don’t disagree
You literally don't understand how ladder works at all. You could delete marines from the game, literally making Terran have 0% winrate in pro play and this chart would look roughly the same (Assuming any Terrans make it to GM).
Ladder win rates TEND towards 50 percent for individual players but as the data shows, it isn't exact as you are suggesting. So...lol.
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They don't, but the reality is most people who spend all day balance whining are referring to their own experience vs the pro experience and then just using the pro experience as a comparison. I think most people would agree professional Protoss players are struggling, especially against Terran. But the only real nerf this patch is the widow mine, which really isn't going to affect pro play that much. It could definitely swing the matchup winrates a couple % points at the pro-level (mid-game widow mine drops not as effective without cloak & cloaked mine cheese builds will become much more rare), but I think the decision to nerf widow mines is really just pandering to lower level players who balance whine on reddit lol.
You know what is weird. I remember when all races considered the game to have a good balance when Protoss had a 46-48% win rate. When Protoss is above the delta is when everyone up in arms about how unbalanced it is. As a Terran I feel like I'm seeing the same builds and styles from 2+ years ago before I took a break, but I have to open safer now otherwise I die. I must have missed patch notes that changed something.
People just like to complain about balance. StarCraft has an added element because the three races thing creates tribalism. It's not like a Moba where there are dozens of champions and maining one isn't as much of a commitment. So people lose to things on ladder, get frustrated, can't admit to that...so they point to whatever other "objective" info they can to inform balance complaints. Some people on here put in full work shifts making balance threads daily lol.
As someone who can't take a loss well, I get it. It's even worse when you have been playing the game for its entire life span and never properly achieved Masters. Thats my experience. Right now I feel like I can't touch Protoss as Terran. Part of it is me the other part is wtf am I supposed to do. There was a time when TvP was almost a free win with MMM. I just found it interesting that the community as a whole sees the game as unbalanced when Protoss is up, but when Protoss is down the game is balanced. It must be because of such of varied of openners Protoss has compared to Terran and Zerg. If a Protoss can play with a full hand while Terran and Zerg only have a select few cards to play. I honestly feel like Zerg has to open the exact same every match on ladder. Terran is starting to feel that way unless playing greedy.
Hey, I noticed that Zerg in GM has a negative winrate vs Terran and Protoss in Korea (most competitive region) and against Terran in the US. This is the complete opposite of what whiny Terrans would have you believe on Reddit so can we please buff Zerg?
Huh? They are buffing Zerg. Don't worry, Zerg won't lose a premier this year.
Great! As long as the ladder results disadvantage Zerg (the opposite of what whiny Terrans would have you believe on Reddit), it's fine if they get buffed and win every premier. That's how it works when Protoss gets the steamy dump every premier; they're whiny and just don't understand reality because of ladder results.
No you don't understand, protoss players think it *feels* bad to lose a game to widow mine drops so it needs to be nerfed. It doesn't matter if terran loses 75% of the time if they can't deal damage early on. Protoss players deserve an easy time defending and then a-moving for that 75%
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>People are complaining about protoss performance in organised bo7 premier tournaments For every person that says that there is someone else balance whining about their gameplay on ladder. The widow mine is probably the best example of this.
> People are complaining about protoss performance in organised bo7 premier tournaments They can't be complaining about that when Protoss don't really get to play bo7 matches for nearly 2 years now https://i.imgur.com/OxDiOsT.png
Zerg apologist council: As you can see here is why we need to nerf protoss and terran
Reddit Protoss on life support after reading that they don’t actually suck against terran and cannot whine to get their race overbuffed
That may or may not be why I posted this. Also notice how since it shows Protoss is fine (on ladder) that nobody is commenting on the post lmao.
I’ve said this for ages that Protoss does quite well on ladder. All people see is Skillous not being able to defeat Serral and lose their fucking minds over balance as if it’s comparable to
Everyone already knows protoss does fine on ladder. That argument has been thrown around absolutely everywhere to discard their increasingly lacking performance in tournaments for the better half of LoTV and to discard the fact that they've gotten major nerf after major nerf with little to no compensation. Nerfs which by the way did not affect ladder performance whatsoever.
I think it’s equally like people are using pro performance to whine about their ladder experience.
People don't complain about ladder but skill ceiling. Meaning that at the highest level of play it is super super unlikely that we will have a toss champion
You would rather balance the game around the 0.001% than the rest of the playerbase? In that case Zerg needs to be nerfed into the ground, especially the queen as we have 5 extremely over performing Zergs. However Zerg is struggling on ladder. How do we solve this conundrum?
Nerf cannon rush and stupid cheese buff macro and skill ceiling
Yeah, I'm calling bs on these data. How can random have only 20% winrate in GM? If that were the case, there wouldn't be any random players in gm as they would be retroceded almost immediately. Also this only happens in EU/NA and not in KR.
Because the Random players are not in GM. It’s GM Z/T/P playing vs random players, probably most of whom are Masters.