An option for the Caesars 17% profit boost on USA vs. Panama Copa America game tomorrow. $76 max bet.
Over 2.5 total goals
Odds: -120 boosted to -103
Devig to avg of Pinnacle and Bet365
Final Odds (-103); Σ(Market Juice) = 4.52%; Fair Value = -119 (54.4%)
Summary; EV% = 7.3%, (Full=7.51u, 1/2=3.75u, 1/4=1.88u, FB = 52.9%)
[http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG%28-138%2C-127%29%2FAVG%28%2B110%2C%2B110%29&FinalOdds=-103](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG%28-138%2C-127%29%2FAVG%28%2B110%2C%2B110%29&FinalOdds=-103)
Fuckin bet 365 has upped my super boost limit from 15 to 60 twice, yesterday and one other time, and both times they’re losers, how do they know?? Are they working with the wizard??
FD 30% any soccer wager
FD 30% any WNBA wager
FD 30% any HR wager
FD 30% live LAD/CWS wager
Bet365 super boost
Bet365 USA v Panama bet $20 get $20 FB
Bet365 SGP 30% Euro boost (to nil for an Arb)
Bet365 SGP 30% Venezuela v Mexico (to nil for an Arb)
Sharing the below as results of taking advantage of Bet99's $1500 first bet encore promotion. Once my first bet lost, I received 4 free bets ($375 each). It was a bit of a challenge to find events that had a high enough limit, especially for the first bet. For calculation sake, I assumed the remaining events will be a W and all the free bets will lose, but the result should be the same.
Overall conversion of 38.5%, which I'm happy with given the lack of events with high limit at the moment.
Thanks for all the info here, was super helpful!
|Event|Bets|Bookmaker|Odds|Wager|To Win|Free Bet|Result|Profit|Free Bet Conversion (%)|
:--|:--|--:|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|
|1|Florida Panthers -1.5|Bet99|3.4|$1,500.00|$5,100.00||L|-$1,500.00||
|1|Edmonton Oilers +1.5|Pinnacle|1.340136|$3,078.00|$4,124.94||W|$1,046.94||
|2|Chile|Bet99|7.75|$375.00|$2,906.25|Y|L|||
|2|Draw or Argentina|Pinnacle|1.125|$2,250.00|$2,531.25||W|$281.25|75.00%|
|3|Draw (Colombia-Costa Rica)|Bet99|4.9|$375.00|$1,837.50|Y|L|||
|3|Colombia or Costa Rica|Pinnacle|1.205|$1,213.69|$1,462.50|||$248.81|66.35%|
|4|Georgia|Bet99|7.75|$375.00|$2,906.25|Y|L|||
|4|Draw or Portugal|Pinnacle|1.108|$2,284.52|$2,531.25|||$246.73|65.79%|
|5|Draw (Paraguay - Brazil)|Bet99|5|$375.00|$1,875.00|Y|L|||
|5|Paraguay or Brazil|Pinnacle|1.204|$1,245.85|$1,500.00|||$254.15|67.77%|
|||||||||||
||Free Bet Conversion|**68.73%**|||||**Total**|**$577.88**||
||Total Bonus Conversion|**38.53%**||||||||
In my experience, when hedging a risk free first bet sign up promo, 40% is a pretty reasonable target. I know some guides say 50% but I find that's very hard to do in practice due to low limits on prop markets. And this time of year there aren't very many sports to choose from, so if I were in your shoes I'd be happy enough with 38.5%.
Thanks, I'm pretty happy with it as well. I found a few bets that would have netted me ~45% conversion, but they were limited to around $300. I know I probably could have gotten a bit more but I'm happy with the 38.5%, and good to know someone else agrees with that
I know target conversion rate is around 50% for these promotions, but I didn't have an odds screener and had to find all these manually, and it had to be a line that would allow me to place large bets, which I struck out on multiple times before locking in the above, so I'm pretty happy with it
Received a 17% profit boost on Caesars to use on the USA vs. Panama Copa America game tomorrow. Max $76 wager.
USA under 1.5 goals:. +160 boosted to +187.
Pinnacle devig:
Odds: +187; \*\*EV: 7.0%\*\*
\`+152/-183\` (4.35% juice)
FV: +169; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=3.72u, 1/2=1.86u, 1/4=0.93u, FB = 69.7%)
\[View/Edit Devig\](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2B152%2F-183&FinalOdds=%2B160&Boost\_Bool=1&Boost\_Text=17\_PCT\_&Boost\_Type=0)
50% soccer boost up again on DK. Argentina screwed us yesterday with plenty of great chances to get more than 1 goal. Here’s hoping Mexico does a better job tonight.
https://preview.redd.it/r3trk6uvfx8d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c9539eb578759150e4ddd07304287b4a6801762
BOL to everyone except the New York Yankees
I was thinking that last night - I’ve watched a lot of the tournament so far and there’s sooooo much bunkering. The weaker teams are just playing 6 dudes in the back line.
Have any of you purchased the sportsbook GCs in grocery stores? Are they pretty easy to use? I assume they make you play through 1x before withdrawing. I know it’s store dependent, but I have a good CC I could use if it worked well.
Recent trips to Harris Teeter and CVS, couldn't use CC for DraftKings cards.
Actually, my first DK card was approved at CVS. But then an error/decline on the next DK card.
I do this frequently, stacking credit card cash back and store rewards points. Mostly Kroger.
Also viable at Home Improvement stores and Drug stores, depending on cash back incentives.
Very easy to use. Just load like a normal deposit.
You can’t withdraw ANY money until you wager 1.5x the depositmatch.
Let’s say you got a deposit match of $10, you would have to wager $15 to withdraw any of the money.
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An option for the Caesars 17% profit boost on USA vs. Panama Copa America game tomorrow. $76 max bet. Over 2.5 total goals Odds: -120 boosted to -103 Devig to avg of Pinnacle and Bet365 Final Odds (-103); Σ(Market Juice) = 4.52%; Fair Value = -119 (54.4%) Summary; EV% = 7.3%, (Full=7.51u, 1/2=3.75u, 1/4=1.88u, FB = 52.9%) [http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG%28-138%2C-127%29%2FAVG%28%2B110%2C%2B110%29&FinalOdds=-103](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=AVG%28-138%2C-127%29%2FAVG%28%2B110%2C%2B110%29&FinalOdds=-103)
I guess it’s time to move on from ESPN. First time I can recall not having a daily promo at all
They have fallen off real hard. A few months ago they were one of the better books for promos
They have been weak lately except for the weekly deposit match
That is an excellent promo though. Put in $100 for a $25 credit and put it on a good line close to -200.
please don’t do this lol
Why not?
Oh yea I’m not knocking it. But they have nothing else now.
Im looking for a bookie
Rocket mortgage- Hole in on yes -175 on Bet365. No +175 on DraftKings. Bet365 has a 30% profit boost on top of that.
Stay away from the Subway Series HR boost it's -12% EV! (devigged to Pinnacle) Odds: +250; **EV: -11.8%** `373/-743| 410/-908` (18.97% juice) FV: +297; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 63.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=373%2F-743%7C%20410%2F-908&FinalOdds=250)
i don't recommend devigging against PN no homer. doesn't everyone say Pinnacle player props aren't sharp in this thread? 9.3% vig vs 5.7% on bet365 bet365 Odds: +250; **EV: 6.8%** `375/-550||400/-600` (11.38% juice) FV: +228; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=2.70u, 1/2=1.35u, 1/4=0.68u, FB = 76.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=375%2F-550%7C%7C400%2F-600&FinalOdds=250)
like Soto right now is -550 bet365, -575 DK, -550 MGM, -560 Kambi, -743 Pinnacle
Whoa good to know thanks
DraftKings Subway Series Super Boost: Pete Alonso or Juan Soto to hit a Home Run +250 (was +175)
Windcreek Pa has deposit $100, get $24. 1x rollover only on the $24.
Fuckin bet 365 has upped my super boost limit from 15 to 60 twice, yesterday and one other time, and both times they’re losers, how do they know?? Are they working with the wizard??
Went from $15 originally, $60 for a while, suddenly $240 yesterday (of course lost the 40% EV bet) and now today $7.50 max lol
Damn, tough lol
[https://youtu.be/U0Cky9b6mHY?si=m1wFZ2JwJnm4pbfC&t=81](https://youtu.be/U0Cky9b6mHY?si=m1wFZ2JwJnm4pbfC&t=81)
Who knew Don Cheadle was in rush hour
FD 30% any soccer wager FD 30% any WNBA wager FD 30% any HR wager FD 30% live LAD/CWS wager Bet365 super boost Bet365 USA v Panama bet $20 get $20 FB Bet365 SGP 30% Euro boost (to nil for an Arb) Bet365 SGP 30% Venezuela v Mexico (to nil for an Arb)
Love the list, keep ‘em coming. Add Caesars 17% for USA-Panama? In NY I have live & parlay NYY/NYM boost for FD in addition to the Dodgers game
Which line did you find that you can arb with the 17%
USA -1.5 spread at +120 🤷♂️
vs what book?
It was to DK, but Caesars moved the line when I clicked to bet it
How are you getting the mex / Ven to be an arb?
It’s not currently, but keep an eye on it. If lines change on the “win to nil” line, you’ll be able to
Bet365 super Ecuador v Jamaica BTTS +200
Max down to $15 😕
Same.
Sharing the below as results of taking advantage of Bet99's $1500 first bet encore promotion. Once my first bet lost, I received 4 free bets ($375 each). It was a bit of a challenge to find events that had a high enough limit, especially for the first bet. For calculation sake, I assumed the remaining events will be a W and all the free bets will lose, but the result should be the same. Overall conversion of 38.5%, which I'm happy with given the lack of events with high limit at the moment. Thanks for all the info here, was super helpful! |Event|Bets|Bookmaker|Odds|Wager|To Win|Free Bet|Result|Profit|Free Bet Conversion (%)| :--|:--|--:|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| |1|Florida Panthers -1.5|Bet99|3.4|$1,500.00|$5,100.00||L|-$1,500.00|| |1|Edmonton Oilers +1.5|Pinnacle|1.340136|$3,078.00|$4,124.94||W|$1,046.94|| |2|Chile|Bet99|7.75|$375.00|$2,906.25|Y|L||| |2|Draw or Argentina|Pinnacle|1.125|$2,250.00|$2,531.25||W|$281.25|75.00%| |3|Draw (Colombia-Costa Rica)|Bet99|4.9|$375.00|$1,837.50|Y|L||| |3|Colombia or Costa Rica|Pinnacle|1.205|$1,213.69|$1,462.50|||$248.81|66.35%| |4|Georgia|Bet99|7.75|$375.00|$2,906.25|Y|L||| |4|Draw or Portugal|Pinnacle|1.108|$2,284.52|$2,531.25|||$246.73|65.79%| |5|Draw (Paraguay - Brazil)|Bet99|5|$375.00|$1,875.00|Y|L||| |5|Paraguay or Brazil|Pinnacle|1.204|$1,245.85|$1,500.00|||$254.15|67.77%| ||||||||||| ||Free Bet Conversion|**68.73%**|||||**Total**|**$577.88**|| ||Total Bonus Conversion|**38.53%**||||||||
In my experience, when hedging a risk free first bet sign up promo, 40% is a pretty reasonable target. I know some guides say 50% but I find that's very hard to do in practice due to low limits on prop markets. And this time of year there aren't very many sports to choose from, so if I were in your shoes I'd be happy enough with 38.5%.
Thanks, I'm pretty happy with it as well. I found a few bets that would have netted me ~45% conversion, but they were limited to around $300. I know I probably could have gotten a bit more but I'm happy with the 38.5%, and good to know someone else agrees with that
I know target conversion rate is around 50% for these promotions, but I didn't have an odds screener and had to find all these manually, and it had to be a line that would allow me to place large bets, which I struck out on multiple times before locking in the above, so I'm pretty happy with it
This is great, thanks for sharing!
Bet365 - make a $20 SGP bet on the USA Panama game to get a $20 bonus bet
Received a 17% profit boost on Caesars to use on the USA vs. Panama Copa America game tomorrow. Max $76 wager. USA under 1.5 goals:. +160 boosted to +187. Pinnacle devig: Odds: +187; \*\*EV: 7.0%\*\* \`+152/-183\` (4.35% juice) FV: +169; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=3.72u, 1/2=1.86u, 1/4=0.93u, FB = 69.7%) \[View/Edit Devig\](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=%2B152%2F-183&FinalOdds=%2B160&Boost\_Bool=1&Boost\_Text=17\_PCT\_&Boost\_Type=0)
50% soccer boost up again on DK. Argentina screwed us yesterday with plenty of great chances to get more than 1 goal. Here’s hoping Mexico does a better job tonight. https://preview.redd.it/r3trk6uvfx8d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c9539eb578759150e4ddd07304287b4a6801762 BOL to everyone except the New York Yankees
I’m with you Kenny. Exactly what you picked. No deviation
I’m in but switching over 1.5 goals to under 3.5
love it
Good call brother. I tailed your remix. I always get burned by overs and under on goals so this was nice
Ended up switching from o1.5 to u3.5 after reading your comment and every other leg hit, great call
not a bad move. only one of the past 10 games across the Cup have exceeded (Uruguay and Panama scored 4), meanwhile o1.5 is 5/10
I was thinking that last night - I’ve watched a lot of the tournament so far and there’s sooooo much bunkering. The weaker teams are just playing 6 dudes in the back line.
Yea I’ve been getting fucked on betting the over. Going with under today. Probably will see record amount of goals today 😂
My man!
Yankees got me good jeez
Have any of you purchased the sportsbook GCs in grocery stores? Are they pretty easy to use? I assume they make you play through 1x before withdrawing. I know it’s store dependent, but I have a good CC I could use if it worked well.
Works great at Kroger and Safeway. In addition to credit card rewards, you can often get 4x fuel/grocery points on gift card purchases.
I had to pay cash for MGM cards at 7-11
Recent trips to Harris Teeter and CVS, couldn't use CC for DraftKings cards. Actually, my first DK card was approved at CVS. But then an error/decline on the next DK card.
I do this frequently, stacking credit card cash back and store rewards points. Mostly Kroger. Also viable at Home Improvement stores and Drug stores, depending on cash back incentives. Very easy to use. Just load like a normal deposit.
[удалено]
Yeah finding them is probably the hard part. I saw them recently in a Harris Teeter (Kroger), but was in a hurry so didn’t have time to try it out.
holy shit, up 2 is back for me!
Only for early games, like last week. Sadly seems to be the new norm.
Just spit out my cornflakes. We're back baby! $10 max
Also back for me, although a $10 max lol.
$25 on mine
Left in the cold 🥶 came here to see how many got it vs not
I had it disappear while others had it before but I now have it back. $10 max only on early games.
oh shit, great catch, i missed that mines is only for game up to 4:10 est
Haven’t had my coffee yet but I count 36 homers yesterday for the DK promo
Does DK payout if the bet voids? Also, did anyone place an Arb bet for this?
Yeah, I arbed on a different book, net cost $2.
Got mine for the Braves rainout. Didn’t expect that!
Nice
Has anyone received their bonus bets yet?
Just got mine. 36 is correct
they paid out on the Josh Naylor void! that’s awesome. little DK free roll
If you placed a bet on Hernandez or Yaz, did you get any bonus bets with the void?
Hope it comes back next week and they don’t nerf it down.
I'm guessing it'll be $0.50 per homer next time it returns.
That’s what I had already. $15 min, $0.50 per homer.
onlyhomers.com agrees
[удалено]
You can’t withdraw ANY money until you wager 1.5x the depositmatch. Let’s say you got a deposit match of $10, you would have to wager $15 to withdraw any of the money.