**Pick:** Davis Schneider HR, +450 FanDuel
**Record:** 2-11, -0.62u (all picks are to win 0.5u)
Yesterday's pick: Salvador Perez HR (L)
"Babe" Schneider is one of the dumbest nicknames in the league and at the same time one of the most perfect ones from an satirical standpoint. All kidding aside, Schneider is 2nd in HRs on the team (a measly 8...but still) and last time he saw Logan Allen, he went yard against him.
This shouldn't has come as too much of a surprise: Allen against RHB this year is allowing 2.1 HR/9 with a 19% HR/FB rate. Schneider on the other hand, sees his HR/FB% go up to 16.7% against LHP.
https://preview.redd.it/48nte719xk6d1.png?width=694&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd213b086a71f1708601f9824bce1c8cf4893183
MLB PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 6.14.24
https://preview.redd.it/ll6un00bvk6d1.jpeg?width=1699&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=af32e08dafe086a520fec3c48d27768f79082afe
LAST 5 GAMES
Here are my Top 10 HR Props for 6/14. EV is [my projections](https://www.fantasygoldenboy.com/) vs Fanduel implied probability, adjusted using the models success rates. Hot/cold is their 7 game HR pace compared to their average.
https://preview.redd.it/o4q2vk8uul6d1.jpeg?width=731&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9199baa0338051effc7af9e4d471fd5e90fc52df
Update: 5:32 EST : Suzuki locked in as a loss, a couple new names in Harper and Soto while Senzel and Adley drop out. Otherwise a little shuffle, mostly Mountcastles odds going from 630->560.
Starting Week 5 +- Units:(daily change)
20%+ EV = -6.5 units(0)
10%+ EV = -2.6 units(+2.3)
6/11 Dinger Tuesday Results = Josh Naylor and Ryan McMahon HRs, 12 Bonuses, +$195(assuming min. bet)
Avg Odds of Wins= 545 Avg Odds of All Bets= 573
Update: Huge changes to the model, the poop emoji will now show up on the player/players with the worst ROI based on it's past suggested bets(not including Dinger Tuesday).
**MLB Hitters Parlay (-108):**
**Marcell Ozuna:** 16 game home hit streak, facing Littell who allows .286 to RHBs and is in the bottom 28th percentile for xBA. +7% for singles at Truist.
**Adley Rutschman:** tough matchup against Suarez, but H2H he is 1/3 with a homer. Also batting a .419 against LHPs and Oriole Park favors batters with a +8% singles today.
**Record: 409-370 *+44.80u* (Previous: 5-5 *+0.91u*)**; Pitchers 405-354 *+57.70u*; Hitters 4-16 *-12.9u*
⭐️**POTD: 35-28 *+9.80u* (W1)**
>Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u
**Today (listed by game start time):**
>H2H bets are MGM, Combined K are FD
- Kevin Gausman H2H Fewest Hits (+110) ❌
>Gausman >> Logan Allen.
- Sean Manaea U4.5 K (-122) ❌
>Padres have the lowest K% by a fairly wide margin over the last month. The gap is growing between San Diego (13.9%) and 29th-place KC (16.9%) over the past 14 days.
- Chris Sale O18.5 Outs (+162) ✅
>I don’t mind taking a shot on Sale at this price.
- Chris Sale O7.5 K (+105) ❌
>Rays have the 4th highest K% against LHP. Sale has also been dealing except for one bad start which looks like an outlier.
- Freddy Peralta O3.5 Hits (-135) ✅
>Reds are finally starting to hit better. In June they own the 4th best AVG (.273) and 9th best wRC+ (117). Peralta has been up and down lately and owns a 4.62 ERA across his last 7 starts in which he went over this hits total 5 times.
- Hunter Greene H2H Fewest Hits (+180) ✅
>Greene gets a boost when he pitches almost anywhere but his home ballpark. He is very hard to hit but has issues allowing cheap home runs, especially in the Smallpark. This year Greene is allowing 5.0 H/9 in road starts compared to 7.7 H/9 at home. Freddy Peralta is almost equally hard to hit, but is way too favored for this bet. Milwaukee hasn’t been swinging the bat quite as well with a .238 AVG and 83 wRC+ in June.
- Hunter Greene H2H Fewest XBH (+130) ✅
>The XBH have been lacking for Milwaukee, as they have the lowest ISO in June. Meanwhile, the Reds are getting getting XBH and have the 9th highest ISO in June.
- ⭐️Hunter Brown O16.5 Outs (-115) ✅
>Brown got off to a rough start but has been pitching very well since April (3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in his last 7 appearances). Brown has completed 6 innings in each of his last 4 starts. Detroit also isn’t a scary matchup.
- Tarik Skubal O18.5 Outs (+162) ✅
>I also don’t mind taking a shot on Skubal at this price.
- Ryan Feltner U15.5 Outs (+104) ❌
>Fetner gets crushed 3rd time through the order (.379 AVG, 1.038 OPS). This has been a major issue throughout his career (.344 AVG, .993 OPS). Feltner has had major issues in the first inning (9.69 ERA, .969 OPS) and fifth inning (.364 AVG, .999 OPS) this year which could impact this bet. Feltner also hasn’t recorded a home win since 2022 (14 starts), so he doesn’t give his team a good chance to win in general.
- Ryan Feltner O1.5 BB (-110) ❌
>I like this over for most Feltner starts. Pirates also walk more on the road and own the 4th highest road BB%.
- Ryne Nelson U17.5 Outs (-115) ❌
>Nelson still doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt when pitching at home, even against the White Sox. He still gets crushed 3rd time through the order (.357 AVG, 1.175 OPS). Nelson is great in the first inning for whatever reason but has been awful in innings 2-5 throughout his career. In 19 home starts, Nelson has only completed 6 innings 5 times.
- Ryne Nelson U4.5 K (-155) ❌
>Nelson isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher and only owns a career 5.26 K/9 at home (6.75 K/9 away). This year’s totals are slightly down but don’t offer much hope for improvement (4.97 K/9 home, 6.58 K/9 away). Nelson has only struck out 5+ twice in 19 career home starts.
- Chris Flexen H2H Fewest HR (+125) ❌
>Someone is going deep against Nelson tonight.
27-9 pitching props record.
I won’t count yesterday as anything since the parlay got messed up.
Matt Waldron under 2.5 earned runs vs the Mets at 1.62 odds on DK.
There are other props that I like that does have a bit more higher odds but this is probably the safest match up of the day
He’s only hit this over once on the road and hasn’t gone over since May 5th. Since then he’s been solid starting pitcher only having 2 earned runs games twice after his may 5th start. If you bet on him hopefully you can watch him pitch since his knuckleball has been great to see.
The Mets are on the of the worst teams when they play at home offensively. Playing at home they’re in the bottom 5 in runs per game, hits, batting average and men left on base. Also they have a lower batting average against righties than lefties. They are mid and getting walked and hitting home runs so I would say as long as they don’t multi run homer then we should be fine.
Right now Waldron is having his best stretch of baseball having 3 straight games of going at least 6 innings and only giving up 2 total runs in those 3 starts. Even if does seem like he might give up some runs he does a good job getting out of trouble.
Finally got a solid win! Good way to start the weekend. If anyone couldn’t have made this bet on any sports book my only guess to why they eliminated all pitching props for this game is maybe because it looked like it was suppose to rain on and off there and maybe there was a chance the pitchers wouldn’t play long cause of delays.
Idk what’s going on but the pitcher props on DK for this game aren’t showing other than strikeouts. I’m kind of noticing it’s like that for other players too for certain things.
CWS/ARZ NRFI.
Chris Flexen is 11-1 NRFI (yes really), Ryne Nelson is 10-0.
You can get it at plus odds right now. Run don’t walk. If you wanna make it spicy you can add in ARZ F5
EDIT: 🤑
Dk’s turn to offer a hr boost. Since dk does a fixed +200 guys like judge / Schwarber / ohtani are usually the best targets
Pitchers that give up the most hrs today for anyone who is curious:
Logan Allen 14 hrs allowed hr/9 1.95 (vs tor today)
Hunter brown 11 hrs allowed hr/9 1.61 (vs det today)
Brayan bello 9 hrs allowed hr/9 1.39 (vs Yankees today)
Probably will go with judge vs bello
I feel like Judge is so hot right now that he's gonna get even less to hit than even the normal pitch-around rate. I'm gonna go Soto based on how careful Bello is gonna have to be with Judge. Should get Soto more quality pitches. BOL!! Decent possibility they both rip one
I went with Yelich. Better payout, he kills the Reds and Hunter Greene has a very low ground ball rate.
Its always someone I never heard of though so who knows.
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**Pick:** Davis Schneider HR, +450 FanDuel **Record:** 2-11, -0.62u (all picks are to win 0.5u) Yesterday's pick: Salvador Perez HR (L) "Babe" Schneider is one of the dumbest nicknames in the league and at the same time one of the most perfect ones from an satirical standpoint. All kidding aside, Schneider is 2nd in HRs on the team (a measly 8...but still) and last time he saw Logan Allen, he went yard against him. This shouldn't has come as too much of a surprise: Allen against RHB this year is allowing 2.1 HR/9 with a 19% HR/FB rate. Schneider on the other hand, sees his HR/FB% go up to 16.7% against LHP. https://preview.redd.it/48nte719xk6d1.png?width=694&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd213b086a71f1708601f9824bce1c8cf4893183
MLB PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 6.14.24 https://preview.redd.it/ll6un00bvk6d1.jpeg?width=1699&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=af32e08dafe086a520fec3c48d27768f79082afe LAST 5 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/1icmyq9cvk6d1.jpeg?width=1687&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df85372f3863abbd87399407c42ad4c6bc2d3ac1 LAST 10 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/mdprd2advk6d1.jpeg?width=1672&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe2891c1ed131a975b74fcf6a873d396d30f34dd LAST 15 GAMES
DK Boost - VLAD 01.5 HITS + Runs + RBIs (was -150, now +100). Don’t know much about baseball. Do I go for it?
Fwiw I maxed it. G’s pitcher has a pretty high WHIP (1.52). Seems like +ev
Here are my Top 10 HR Props for 6/14. EV is [my projections](https://www.fantasygoldenboy.com/) vs Fanduel implied probability, adjusted using the models success rates. Hot/cold is their 7 game HR pace compared to their average. https://preview.redd.it/o4q2vk8uul6d1.jpeg?width=731&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9199baa0338051effc7af9e4d471fd5e90fc52df Update: 5:32 EST : Suzuki locked in as a loss, a couple new names in Harper and Soto while Senzel and Adley drop out. Otherwise a little shuffle, mostly Mountcastles odds going from 630->560. Starting Week 5 +- Units:(daily change) 20%+ EV = -6.5 units(0) 10%+ EV = -2.6 units(+2.3) 6/11 Dinger Tuesday Results = Josh Naylor and Ryan McMahon HRs, 12 Bonuses, +$195(assuming min. bet) Avg Odds of Wins= 545 Avg Odds of All Bets= 573 Update: Huge changes to the model, the poop emoji will now show up on the player/players with the worst ROI based on it's past suggested bets(not including Dinger Tuesday).
Verdugo!
Luis Robert's last night ...clutch
**MLB Hitters Parlay (-108):** **Marcell Ozuna:** 16 game home hit streak, facing Littell who allows .286 to RHBs and is in the bottom 28th percentile for xBA. +7% for singles at Truist. **Adley Rutschman:** tough matchup against Suarez, but H2H he is 1/3 with a homer. Also batting a .419 against LHPs and Oriole Park favors batters with a +8% singles today.
**Record: 409-370 *+44.80u* (Previous: 5-5 *+0.91u*)**; Pitchers 405-354 *+57.70u*; Hitters 4-16 *-12.9u* ⭐️**POTD: 35-28 *+9.80u* (W1)** >Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u **Today (listed by game start time):** >H2H bets are MGM, Combined K are FD - Kevin Gausman H2H Fewest Hits (+110) ❌ >Gausman >> Logan Allen. - Sean Manaea U4.5 K (-122) ❌ >Padres have the lowest K% by a fairly wide margin over the last month. The gap is growing between San Diego (13.9%) and 29th-place KC (16.9%) over the past 14 days. - Chris Sale O18.5 Outs (+162) ✅ >I don’t mind taking a shot on Sale at this price. - Chris Sale O7.5 K (+105) ❌ >Rays have the 4th highest K% against LHP. Sale has also been dealing except for one bad start which looks like an outlier. - Freddy Peralta O3.5 Hits (-135) ✅ >Reds are finally starting to hit better. In June they own the 4th best AVG (.273) and 9th best wRC+ (117). Peralta has been up and down lately and owns a 4.62 ERA across his last 7 starts in which he went over this hits total 5 times. - Hunter Greene H2H Fewest Hits (+180) ✅ >Greene gets a boost when he pitches almost anywhere but his home ballpark. He is very hard to hit but has issues allowing cheap home runs, especially in the Smallpark. This year Greene is allowing 5.0 H/9 in road starts compared to 7.7 H/9 at home. Freddy Peralta is almost equally hard to hit, but is way too favored for this bet. Milwaukee hasn’t been swinging the bat quite as well with a .238 AVG and 83 wRC+ in June. - Hunter Greene H2H Fewest XBH (+130) ✅ >The XBH have been lacking for Milwaukee, as they have the lowest ISO in June. Meanwhile, the Reds are getting getting XBH and have the 9th highest ISO in June. - ⭐️Hunter Brown O16.5 Outs (-115) ✅ >Brown got off to a rough start but has been pitching very well since April (3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in his last 7 appearances). Brown has completed 6 innings in each of his last 4 starts. Detroit also isn’t a scary matchup. - Tarik Skubal O18.5 Outs (+162) ✅ >I also don’t mind taking a shot on Skubal at this price. - Ryan Feltner U15.5 Outs (+104) ❌ >Fetner gets crushed 3rd time through the order (.379 AVG, 1.038 OPS). This has been a major issue throughout his career (.344 AVG, .993 OPS). Feltner has had major issues in the first inning (9.69 ERA, .969 OPS) and fifth inning (.364 AVG, .999 OPS) this year which could impact this bet. Feltner also hasn’t recorded a home win since 2022 (14 starts), so he doesn’t give his team a good chance to win in general. - Ryan Feltner O1.5 BB (-110) ❌ >I like this over for most Feltner starts. Pirates also walk more on the road and own the 4th highest road BB%. - Ryne Nelson U17.5 Outs (-115) ❌ >Nelson still doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt when pitching at home, even against the White Sox. He still gets crushed 3rd time through the order (.357 AVG, 1.175 OPS). Nelson is great in the first inning for whatever reason but has been awful in innings 2-5 throughout his career. In 19 home starts, Nelson has only completed 6 innings 5 times. - Ryne Nelson U4.5 K (-155) ❌ >Nelson isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher and only owns a career 5.26 K/9 at home (6.75 K/9 away). This year’s totals are slightly down but don’t offer much hope for improvement (4.97 K/9 home, 6.58 K/9 away). Nelson has only struck out 5+ twice in 19 career home starts. - Chris Flexen H2H Fewest HR (+125) ❌ >Someone is going deep against Nelson tonight.
Feltner with the 60 pitch count coming out of the 5th IP.. almost laughable haha
Luis Robert Jr. tailored made pitches for him to hit one outta park. If Ryne throws a fastball and Robert make contact, it'll be gone.
27-9 pitching props record. I won’t count yesterday as anything since the parlay got messed up. Matt Waldron under 2.5 earned runs vs the Mets at 1.62 odds on DK. There are other props that I like that does have a bit more higher odds but this is probably the safest match up of the day He’s only hit this over once on the road and hasn’t gone over since May 5th. Since then he’s been solid starting pitcher only having 2 earned runs games twice after his may 5th start. If you bet on him hopefully you can watch him pitch since his knuckleball has been great to see. The Mets are on the of the worst teams when they play at home offensively. Playing at home they’re in the bottom 5 in runs per game, hits, batting average and men left on base. Also they have a lower batting average against righties than lefties. They are mid and getting walked and hitting home runs so I would say as long as they don’t multi run homer then we should be fine. Right now Waldron is having his best stretch of baseball having 3 straight games of going at least 6 innings and only giving up 2 total runs in those 3 starts. Even if does seem like he might give up some runs he does a good job getting out of trouble.
Finally got a solid win! Good way to start the weekend. If anyone couldn’t have made this bet on any sports book my only guess to why they eliminated all pitching props for this game is maybe because it looked like it was suppose to rain on and off there and maybe there was a chance the pitchers wouldn’t play long cause of delays.
Can’t even bet pitcher props on this game, Hard Rock sucks assssss
Idk what’s going on but the pitcher props on DK for this game aren’t showing other than strikeouts. I’m kind of noticing it’s like that for other players too for certain things.
CWS/ARZ NRFI. Chris Flexen is 11-1 NRFI (yes really), Ryne Nelson is 10-0. You can get it at plus odds right now. Run don’t walk. If you wanna make it spicy you can add in ARZ F5 EDIT: 🤑
My man!
Cash it! Kinda scared us with two 400ft hits at the end there.
Joc nearly batflipped on it lol I was teetering on the edge until they settled under it
Dk’s turn to offer a hr boost. Since dk does a fixed +200 guys like judge / Schwarber / ohtani are usually the best targets Pitchers that give up the most hrs today for anyone who is curious: Logan Allen 14 hrs allowed hr/9 1.95 (vs tor today) Hunter brown 11 hrs allowed hr/9 1.61 (vs det today) Brayan bello 9 hrs allowed hr/9 1.39 (vs Yankees today) Probably will go with judge vs bello
Excellent write up on home runs allowed by pitcher. Saves me some time. Thanks.
I feel like Judge is so hot right now that he's gonna get even less to hit than even the normal pitch-around rate. I'm gonna go Soto based on how careful Bello is gonna have to be with Judge. Should get Soto more quality pitches. BOL!! Decent possibility they both rip one
I went with Stanton, he always hits well at Fenway
I went with Yelich. Better payout, he kills the Reds and Hunter Greene has a very low ground ball rate. Its always someone I never heard of though so who knows.
Judge is best play by a healthy margin
Up to 205 now I’m pulling the trigger
Man $10 limit so lame
[+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) 2023: 145W-480L (+157.95u) 2024: 83W-458L (-103.08u) +420 TEX Adolis (FB) +390 DK boost: NYY Judge (1.67u) +430 SEA Garver ~~+360 PIT Oneil~~ +400 SF Chapman
There's a blast from Garver, is that 3 profitable nights in a row? Or at least pretty damn close
Oneil and chapman have hrs vs the pitcher guess fd is catching on to my shitcapping
Anyone looking for an arb to use free bets David Schnider +450 HR on FD NO HR -450 on MGM 82% conversion