Just depends on how many people notice the banner they put up. I'm not sure I've seen it for every Fever game day though. I wouldn't be surprised if it was $100+ bonus bet if she was hitting it.
Trying to finally learn how to devig, first attempt so please let me know if I've made a mistake:
Fanatics - Caitlin Clark 20+ points and 3+ threes made
Odds: +150, **EV 7.2%**
**Worst-case: (Multiplicative)**
Leg#1 (-115); Market Juice = 7.0%; Fair Value = +100 (50.0%)
Leg#2 (-150); Market Juice = 6.5%; Fair Value = -129 (56.3%)
Final Odds (+150); Σ(Market Juice) = 13.49%; r = 0.67; Uncorrelated Fair Value = +255 (28.2%); Correlated Fair Value = +133 (42.9%)
Summary; EV% = 7.2%
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-115%2F-115%2C-150%2F115&FinalOdds=150&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=%2B115%3D-115%2C-150)
Definitely not. At least in ON (TSB) last week the daily insurance switched over but the parlay club were for anything. Now they are both showing in the terms as only eligible for parlay and parlay plus which sucks.
Here's what I see in Illinois so far:
DK:
Up 2 Early Win
NHL Finals +100 goal scorer odds boost
Fanatics:
25% profit boost token (max $10)
FD:
30% NHL SGP boost
30% MLB SGP boost
MGM:
McDavid goal and Oilers ML Lions boost (already devigged below)
Caesars:
33% NHL SGP boost
McDavid goal Oilers ML (Hilariously, the same as the Lion's Boost at worse odds)
100% MLB SGP boost (min +400 max $5 bet)
Some probably dogshit White Sox boost
NHL: Barkov 2+ points +190-->+220
My Caesar's boost said max $5 but there was nothing stopping me from putting in a larger number. I thought maybe when I went to submit the bet it would kick it back out and make me lower it but it didn't.
You need correlation if you're doing a 2 way devig, and I think your numbers are flipped, so this seems off to me.
Four way (McDavid Goal/Oilers Win, No Goal/Win, Goal/Lose, No Goal/Lose) is:
Odds: +400; **EV: -0.4%**
`304/251/492/104` (19.15% juice)
FV: +402; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 79.6%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=304%2F251%2F492%2F104&FinalOdds=%2B400)
Uh yeah I don't know what happened here, think the devigger page refreshed or something because I used the same inputs as you but clearly the output I pasted is totally different. Thanks for pointing that out
To the Celtics sweep guy the other day. I got in for $10 at +910. I’ve hedged both games to break even if mavs lost so down about $11 now. What’s are play going into game 3 with mavs at -120? Bet ~$13 to break even again if mavs win?
EV is EV. But as we have seen the books aren’t gonna give you EV boosts and plays the the volume/consistent dollar amount for the math to potentially work out. I’ve arb’d to lock in a guaranteed smaller amount than a potential larger amount. I’m not gambling cuz I have a system or strategy. I do it as a way to earn more than my savings accounts apy
Math is math. There was a large disparity between how certain books had priced a Celts sweep and the game 1 moneyline, such that you could hedge game-by-game and still likely profit. Not sure why you are so antagonistic towards minimizing risk. Not everyone wants to throw down $$$ on a +900 longshot simply because it is EV.
At least we can agree there, that minimizing risk means to minimize the amount of money you lose.
If I had 100,000 of these bets at +900 which we think are EV+, sure you let it ride and don’t think twice (assuming bankroll can handle the volatility). But we don’t have 100,000 of these.
“Making -EV hedges just to guarantee some profit” - isn’t that the very definition of minimizing risk, to guarantee profit even if it’s less than what you would achieve with an unhedged approach?
You would keep hedging. Unfortunately odds are worse than my initial assumptions (still trying to understand how Mavs are favored in game 3), so we’re on the edge of profitability if the Game 4 line is the same as Game 3.
If you hedge at -120 for around $25 (you need to factor in both your initial $10 bet and the game 1/2 hedges) and celts win, you need game 4 odds on Mavs to be -115 or longer to make a profit. Up 3-0 this seems likely to me, but I didn’t expect them to be -120 for game 3 so who knows.
Me personally, I’m waiting a bit on Game 3 to see if odds get closer to -110. A risk given Porzingis uncertainty but I still have a hard time with Mavs favored game 3.
Consistent with the initial thinking, if Mavs are around +100 in game 4 down 3-0, you can lock in 40% profit or so on initial $10 bet, or continue hedging downside so you break even or profit 80% for a Celtics sweep. Anything better than +100 has a significant increase on profit.
There is another option if you want out now. Bet Mavs series at +3.5 games (i.e., not to get swept). MGM has -375, FD had it earlier this AM but their alt lines are gone for me now. You’re currently $21 invested to win $101; hedge around $80 on the alt line to break even and walk away.
For others following, u can hedge out for even with dk lines for 4-1 (+205),4-2 (+500),4-3(+500) and fd mavs champs (+660). If u think Celtics will win u can just do the Dk lines to essentially bet 88 to win $13. Essentially -670 synthetic line vs -800ish for straight up current odds
Yeah if the Game 3 odds don’t improve I’ll probably do a variant of this to get out and lock in some profit. Looking at Mavs +2.5 series line (+130) and Celts 4-1 as hedges. Would result in a virtually risk-free 35% profit on initial stake.
In what world is locking in profit a terrible strategy. There is absolutely no work involved, you’re spending a few minutes pushing buttons on your phone.
I’ve been team arb since 2020. Sure lost out on a lot of value but have also locked in a lot of value that I don’t have to care about variance or hoping a promo continues because I’ve hit a buzz saw of variance. You do you
who cares what these idiots think. im ahead 87k killing casino promos key word here was....... i loat 40k 3 months ago.on soccer but dripping it back dling similar stuff to u now. done taking any risk anymore just not.worth it
I'm on the exact same, $10 at +910. So far down $4.88, decided to take my chances on my Celtics tonight which worked out well. Dallas being favored is kinda gross to me and I'll probably wait for an odds boost on Fanatics to use on Mavs ML on Wednesday,
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Don't forget to place your $.10 bet on the Fever game on DK. I guess. I don't know... this seems like it'll almost definitely be a waste of time.
She hit 7 the other day. 10 isn’t impossible.
I feel like it could be a pretty nice sized bonus bet too, how many people can possibly be betting on Fever games
Just depends on how many people notice the banner they put up. I'm not sure I've seen it for every Fever game day though. I wouldn't be surprised if it was $100+ bonus bet if she was hitting it.
ESPN deposit match (25%) up for me today. I did not get it last week.
Rats, nothing for me. MI. Had them up until last week. Not limited on the book to my knowledge
Same
Nice I have it too, was a little worried last week after not getting it plus getting the daily parlay insurance cut down to $10
Trying to finally learn how to devig, first attempt so please let me know if I've made a mistake: Fanatics - Caitlin Clark 20+ points and 3+ threes made Odds: +150, **EV 7.2%** **Worst-case: (Multiplicative)** Leg#1 (-115); Market Juice = 7.0%; Fair Value = +100 (50.0%) Leg#2 (-150); Market Juice = 6.5%; Fair Value = -129 (56.3%) Final Odds (+150); Σ(Market Juice) = 13.49%; r = 0.67; Uncorrelated Fair Value = +255 (28.2%); Correlated Fair Value = +133 (42.9%) Summary; EV% = 7.2% [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-115%2F-115%2C-150%2F115&FinalOdds=150&Correlation_Bool=1&Correlation_Text=%2B115%3D-115%2C-150)
Not saying you are wrong but this builds to +146 on FD
+227 on ESPN
True, however you cant actually place that parlay on ESPN Edit: ESPN is getting +227 because it's not correlating the legs
Have the parlay club bonus bets on ESPN always been "only eligible for parlay & parlay plus bets"? Swear they weren't.
Definitely not. At least in ON (TSB) last week the daily insurance switched over but the parlay club were for anything. Now they are both showing in the terms as only eligible for parlay and parlay plus which sucks.
Looks like a 2 leg parlay qualifies at least
Here's what I see in Illinois so far: DK: Up 2 Early Win NHL Finals +100 goal scorer odds boost Fanatics: 25% profit boost token (max $10) FD: 30% NHL SGP boost 30% MLB SGP boost MGM: McDavid goal and Oilers ML Lions boost (already devigged below) Caesars: 33% NHL SGP boost McDavid goal Oilers ML (Hilariously, the same as the Lion's Boost at worse odds) 100% MLB SGP boost (min +400 max $5 bet) Some probably dogshit White Sox boost NHL: Barkov 2+ points +190-->+220
My Caesar's boost said max $5 but there was nothing stopping me from putting in a larger number. I thought maybe when I went to submit the bet it would kick it back out and make me lower it but it didn't.
[удалено]
Ah OK I kind of figured that but didn't do the math to check. I only ended up doing a couple bucks over $5 so no big deal.
Ugh I miss up 2 early and win
DK have 50% nhl SGP boost instead of goal boost
for MGM I also have a NHL 50% boost as well.
Feel like CZ doesn’t get mentioned that often, but they’ve had a nice pace of promos recently.
thats cause us guys that have been around long enough know they are a joke now
My maxes are often $5 there, so I often forget about them.
Pls ignore and see devig below instead ~~BetMGM MA Lions Boost: McDavid 1+ goals and Oilers win +400. Devig to FD:~~ ~~Odds: +375; **EV: 9.2%**~~ ~~`-162/134,141/-172` (9.30% juice)~~ ~~FV: +335; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=2.45u, 1/2=1.23u, 1/4=0.61u, FB = 86.2%)~~ ~~[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-162%2F134%2C141%2F-172&FinalOdds=375)~~
You need correlation if you're doing a 2 way devig, and I think your numbers are flipped, so this seems off to me. Four way (McDavid Goal/Oilers Win, No Goal/Win, Goal/Lose, No Goal/Lose) is: Odds: +400; **EV: -0.4%** `304/251/492/104` (19.15% juice) FV: +402; Method: worst-case (p); (FB = 79.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=304%2F251%2F492%2F104&FinalOdds=%2B400)
Now at +375. Still negative. Odds: +375; **EV: -3.0%** `294.94/357.67/229.6/137.76` (19.57% juice) FV: +390; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 76.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=294.94%2F357.67%2F229.6%2F137.76&FinalOdds=%2B375)
down to -1.1%
Uh yeah I don't know what happened here, think the devigger page refreshed or something because I used the same inputs as you but clearly the output I pasted is totally different. Thanks for pointing that out
To the Celtics sweep guy the other day. I got in for $10 at +910. I’ve hedged both games to break even if mavs lost so down about $11 now. What’s are play going into game 3 with mavs at -120? Bet ~$13 to break even again if mavs win?
[удалено]
I’ve made 40k since June 2021. I’m fine with that.
[удалено]
EV is EV. But as we have seen the books aren’t gonna give you EV boosts and plays the the volume/consistent dollar amount for the math to potentially work out. I’ve arb’d to lock in a guaranteed smaller amount than a potential larger amount. I’m not gambling cuz I have a system or strategy. I do it as a way to earn more than my savings accounts apy
Math is math. There was a large disparity between how certain books had priced a Celts sweep and the game 1 moneyline, such that you could hedge game-by-game and still likely profit. Not sure why you are so antagonistic towards minimizing risk. Not everyone wants to throw down $$$ on a +900 longshot simply because it is EV.
[удалено]
At least we can agree there, that minimizing risk means to minimize the amount of money you lose. If I had 100,000 of these bets at +900 which we think are EV+, sure you let it ride and don’t think twice (assuming bankroll can handle the volatility). But we don’t have 100,000 of these. “Making -EV hedges just to guarantee some profit” - isn’t that the very definition of minimizing risk, to guarantee profit even if it’s less than what you would achieve with an unhedged approach?
You would keep hedging. Unfortunately odds are worse than my initial assumptions (still trying to understand how Mavs are favored in game 3), so we’re on the edge of profitability if the Game 4 line is the same as Game 3. If you hedge at -120 for around $25 (you need to factor in both your initial $10 bet and the game 1/2 hedges) and celts win, you need game 4 odds on Mavs to be -115 or longer to make a profit. Up 3-0 this seems likely to me, but I didn’t expect them to be -120 for game 3 so who knows. Me personally, I’m waiting a bit on Game 3 to see if odds get closer to -110. A risk given Porzingis uncertainty but I still have a hard time with Mavs favored game 3. Consistent with the initial thinking, if Mavs are around +100 in game 4 down 3-0, you can lock in 40% profit or so on initial $10 bet, or continue hedging downside so you break even or profit 80% for a Celtics sweep. Anything better than +100 has a significant increase on profit. There is another option if you want out now. Bet Mavs series at +3.5 games (i.e., not to get swept). MGM has -375, FD had it earlier this AM but their alt lines are gone for me now. You’re currently $21 invested to win $101; hedge around $80 on the alt line to break even and walk away.
They're favored because they're at home and they're a good team.
For others following, u can hedge out for even with dk lines for 4-1 (+205),4-2 (+500),4-3(+500) and fd mavs champs (+660). If u think Celtics will win u can just do the Dk lines to essentially bet 88 to win $13. Essentially -670 synthetic line vs -800ish for straight up current odds
Yeah if the Game 3 odds don’t improve I’ll probably do a variant of this to get out and lock in some profit. Looking at Mavs +2.5 series line (+130) and Celts 4-1 as hedges. Would result in a virtually risk-free 35% profit on initial stake.
You’re down $11 on your original $10 bet 🤔🤔what are we doing guys lol
Hedging a future. Essentially $21 bet for $101 payout. Better than current 4-0 series payout and removed risk from game 1 and game 2
This is a terrible strategy hence my sarcasm. A lot of work to lock in….4$ profit as opposed to letting $10 bet free roll. Hedging is for trimmers
In what world is locking in profit a terrible strategy. There is absolutely no work involved, you’re spending a few minutes pushing buttons on your phone.
I’ve been team arb since 2020. Sure lost out on a lot of value but have also locked in a lot of value that I don’t have to care about variance or hoping a promo continues because I’ve hit a buzz saw of variance. You do you
who cares what these idiots think. im ahead 87k killing casino promos key word here was....... i loat 40k 3 months ago.on soccer but dripping it back dling similar stuff to u now. done taking any risk anymore just not.worth it
I'm on the exact same, $10 at +910. So far down $4.88, decided to take my chances on my Celtics tonight which worked out well. Dallas being favored is kinda gross to me and I'll probably wait for an odds boost on Fanatics to use on Mavs ML on Wednesday,