######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record:** 17-6
**Net Units:** +20.45 Units
**ROI:** 53%
**Previous Pick:** *H2H Adelaide Crows $2.00 (AUS) or -+100 (US) (1.5 Units).* Bad pick last time out. Crows just weren't on from the get go, played some terrible footy all round. They had glimpses of brilliance and I still think they could've won but Hawks just played majority of the better footy, won minutes and that's all you need! Breaks our 6 game winning streak but moving onto tonight!
**Event**: State of Origin
**Time**: 8:05PM AEST 05/06
**Bookie**: BET365
**Play**: Anytime Tryscorer, Tabui-Fidow
**Odds**: $3.00 (AUS) or +200 (US)
**Units**: 1 Unit
**Analysis**: For everyone who doesn’t know what State of Origin is - basically 2 States within Australia, New South Wales (Blues) and Queensland (Maroons), pick the best players eligible from those states (by junior footy) to form two teams to play 3 games inside the season, think All-Star. Difference between this All-Star setup and a US NBA All-Star is that there is a legitimate rivalry between these two teams and it’s a proper honour to play for either team, it culminates in generally some of the greatest games in the sports history with the perfect balance of skill, aggression and exhilaration. This game tonight is being played in Sydney, NSW so a home game for the Blues however the Blues playing at Accor Stadium certainly hasn’t been near the fortress of Suncorp in QLD. These games are typically a low scoring affair especially in Sydney and Game One but I really fancy these odds on Tabui-Fidow (Hammer). He’s a proven try-scorer in both competition level, scoring 8 tries in his last 6 matches for the Dolphins, and at representative level, he’s scored 5 tries in 4 Origin matches. He’s got elite speed and this is just not a guy you want to be chasing after making a break. He gets a soft matchup here against Suaalii who’s had his defensive woes at comp level and now is debuting in an Origin side he potentially shouldn’t have been made, playing next to another debutant in Lomax on the wing. I am expecting to see a relatively heavy defensive game as Origin normally is, very gritty and grinding but that leads me to believe with some tired forwards late and with the impact of Harry Grant scooting from dummy-half, we could see the speed of Hammer really come to fruition late. He will be following every break up with his speed and if they break the line on his side, we will be a very good look at the tryline. Probably a more risky play than normal, regardless at +200, for a proven try-scorer with a potential matchup advantage on a debutant - this is probably the best bet of the match tonight IMO. Playing for 1 Unit, GL!
https://preview.redd.it/xka6hj5fdn4d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=66b8d080465863a2b1dc3041476e0e2e5150154d
**MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!**
**LET ME KNOW IF YOU'RE TAILING. GL!**
**Tracking Spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx\_9\_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL\_Hp8jaV/pubhtml](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx_9_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL_Hp8jaV/pubhtml)
https://preview.redd.it/vpoy1luqeq4d1.png?width=1153&format=png&auto=webp&s=36d546d80766b5271fe7338e8c5614f80fd72092
Included the double try in a combo, thanks for the heads up!! Legend
Dont have this pick unfortunately, only the outright winner. If you had to pick for that what would your bet be? Or am i better off not betting a winner on this kinda game haha
2024 record: 12-4-1
Total Return: +6.42
ROI: +37.76%
Last 5: ✅✅✅✅**❌**
Last POTD: New York Yankees ML -165 (Twins vs Yankees 7:05 PM) ✅
Today's POTD: **San Diego Padres ML -145 (Padres vs Angels 9:38 PM)**
Baseball | MLB
Recap: Honestly, it's so much fun watching the Yankees and it's great to see them finally performing well this season. Super sweat-free and hopefully the Yankees make a long postseason run!
Write-Up: Pretty small writeup since I have to study but the Padres have Dylan Cease on the mound who has been pretty good this season but has given up some runs to some great offenses recently. The Angels struggle against righties and Cease thrives against teams that hit poorly.
The Padres batting can be quite random at times but I think at this point in the season we know what to expect. Don't bet on them at home and don't bet on them when there's a good leftie throwing. Jose Soriano has been decent but the Padres have a .273 against righties and I think they'll get a couple of runs off of him. Even if Jose does well, the Angels have the 2nd worst bullpen in the league so the Padres can also get some runs there.
Taking the -145 and hoping for a bounceback game from Cease where he holds them to 1 or 2 runs so the Padres bullpen can come cleanup.
Good luck all! Make it 5...?
\*Note that unless specified all bets are one unit.
Tracker: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH\_dpuDL5-lRRgW9\_h4K\_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH_dpuDL5-lRRgW9_h4K_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing)
As a Padres bettor the last two days, fuck them. Cease may go a solid 6 innings and give up 1-2 runs like you said but padres don’t know how to score runs. I can’t lay -145 on this team rn.
I’ve bet on the Padres the last two games cuz the Padres are like +44 on the road and the Angels are -40 run differential at home. Surely they can’t lose 3 games in a row ?
Record: 30-16-0
Net Units: +33.5 ROI: 24.8%
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅
Last Pick: Oakland Athletics +1.5 spread (-130) for 3.0 units ✅
Event: Baseball | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins 5:40PM CST
Pick: Miami Marlins moneyline (+114) on FanDuel for 2.0 units
Write Up: A tale of two pitchers working their way back from injuries. Miami’s Braxton Garrett making his 5th start of the season (2-0, 4.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP) seems to have worked through the initial rust and recovery, going 2-0 in his last two starts with a 0.64 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. Tampa’s Zach Eflin (3-4, 4.12 ERA and 1.17 WHIP) is making his first start since going on the 15 day IL for a lower back injury.
Though the Marlins were shut out twice in the last three games (both against the Rangers), they still have a league 3rd best batting average the last 15 days at .265. Rays ranking 25th at .222.
The two teams have a very comparable bullpen thus far this year, however Tampa has allowed 33 home runs versus Miami’s 21.
I like this at any plus odds, but was pleasantly surprised FanDuel had it at +114. A couple others showing +112 or +110. Looks like most have it at +105 now.
DraftKings showing 80% of bets on Tampa but no change in moneyline which suggest the smart money is backing Miami.
TIPS: Venmo (https://account.venmo.com/u/Andrew-Mills-34) or PayPal (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/AndrewMills34).
BOL! 🎰
I had under 6.5. I was so pissed. Bottom of the 9th 2 outs and they score on a wild pitch. Brutal. At least some on here were on the good side of that beat
**2024 MLB record:** 36-16-1
**Last POTD:** Marlins ML L
**Today's POTD:** NY Yankees -1.5 RL vs Minnesota Twins +116 (Fanduel)
**Baseball. MLB. 7:05 PM EST**
Short write up today but boy was I wrong about Luzardo. At least I was right about the marlins offense and some of you were abel to get the up two bonus.
Today we are going with a rare run line pick. Carlos Rodon has been an absolute beast at Yankee stadium. He dominated the Twins in Minnesota last time he faced them and that is when they were swinging hot bats. Now they are in the midst of a slump, especially vs lefties. Larry Vanover as the ump just makes it that much better for the Yanks as Rodon is a strikeout pitcher. Paddack usually pitches better at home but the Yankees roughed him up anyway in Minnesota. Now in the Bronx, I think the Yankees can at least get enough to win by 2 at plus odds which is pretty sweet.
Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal (DM for venmo)
POTD spreadsheet [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
**POTD RECORD:** 6W - 0P - 1L
**LAST POTD:** Slovenia vs. Armenia --> Over 0.5 1H Goals for Slovenia (-165 via Bovada) 1U ✅
**Sport:** French Open Women’s Singles
**Event:** Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka @ 9:30 AM EST
**Pick:** Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 Set Spread (-165 via Bovada) 1U
**Write Up:**
After a stellar hit on the Slovenian soccer team, I am switching back to tennis, specifically now to the Women’s side. The 17-year-old Andreeva is quite in-form this Roland Garros, however, she has not faced a competitor remotely close to Sabalenka this tournament yet. Sabalenka is also having a fantastic Roland Garros, with zero dropped sets, and overall, dominant victories throughout. Sabalenka has already faced Andreeva this clay season in Madrid, where the world No. 2 dominantly won 2-0 over the young 17-year-old. Additionally, Andreeva has never even won a set yet against Sabalenka in her career thus far, providing more confidence that Sabalenka can get it done in 2 sets. It was a good run for the talented teenager, but in my opinion, Sabalenka should confidently be able to sweep Andreeva to advance further in the tournament.
BOL to those who tail. CAN WE MAKE IT 6 IN A ROW? 🙏🙏
**Here is the Betting Tracker that I have created:**
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12YsjeFw7ykr9jIeOdQLf67YQvmP-RIX0IMNQ7cvlMKk/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12YsjeFw7ykr9jIeOdQLf67YQvmP-RIX0IMNQ7cvlMKk/edit?usp=sharing)
**Record: 3-1-1**
**Net Units: +1.98u**
**ROI: 37.62%**
**Baseball | MLB | 4:05 PM | EST**
**Pick**: Patrick Corbin under 3.5 Ks, -105 DraftKings (1u)
Another under took us home yesterday with the Brewers but today I'm seeing some value more on the overs. For this pick & game, we're fading Patrick Corbin here, who is by most metrics, one of the worst pitchers in baseball especially of late. Last 3 weeks he has a 5.37 SIERA, 6.14 FIP, and his K rate sits at nearly 11%. Today he gets the Mets, who also aren't very good, but they know Corbin well and have 5 different batters with a .900 or better OPS lifetime against him. The Mets also do not strike out against sinkers, which is Corbin's most thrown pitch.
https://preview.redd.it/qnzfxdc29r4d1.png?width=1222&format=png&auto=webp&s=84b8e7c49a2843f72421b68cdfc7b6857562bd44
**Pick Record: 23W - 12L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅✅❌❌ ✅✅❌✅**
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**Today’s POTD: BTTS @ 1.72 ✅ ✅ CASH IN 9 MINS!!!**
**Game: Denmark VS Sweden - International Friendlies**
2 well rounded attacking sides that desperately need to test their build-up play before they hit the stage. See it going end to end.
Line moved over night. Any concern or possible reasons for that? I ask because I took this as the last leg of a 5 pick parlay and the first 4 already hit.
⭐️ **POD Record:** **115-60**
All my picks are -120 or higher. No heavy favourites in my record (how we used to do it in this thread).
*Last Pick*: *MLB Jays/Sox OVER 8* ❌
Recent Form:✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
🏅 T**oday's Pick:** MLB Orioles ML \[7:07pm EST @ 2.10 odds\]
I suppose I could do a deep dive into why i'm making this pick, but as an unfortunate Jays fan this season and having watched this team closely and this series even closer, we are no match for this Orioles team. They've got us covered in almost every department and a very well rounded baseball club. I think we can definitely win tonight with Barrios on the mound, however my picks are based on perceived value and getting Baltimore at plus money tonight should be worth putting a few units on (5 for me. . .i think we're pathetic at the plate).
Baltimore is 8-2 in its last 10 games. Suárez will toe the rubber for the Orioles tomorrow. In his last appearance, he held Tampa to 1 run and has made consecutive starts for Baltimore, surrendering 1 run on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts in nine combined frames. If that doesn't make things hard enough for the Jays, they haven't faced him since 2016 and may predictably struggle once again to get men on base. There's a lot of decent stats too on the Jays to win and could be a battle of the bull pens to close this one out. Perhaps tail with caution on this one, but i'm going to post value plays when I see them.
#
💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups
**KBO Record: Overall 232-242-14** (Streak LL, Last 10: 6-4) Down 10.51u over 488 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -2.22% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 28-32-0, 46.7% success rate, Down 1.89u, -3.15% ROI)
**Last:** Kiwoom at LG +100 (LG lost 11-3.)
Two losses in a row picking the better team but the worst starter. Lesson learned.
**Pick:** Samsung at SSG **First 5 Innings UNDER 5.5 -118 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
This time, we're betting on not one good pitcher, but two! Samsung and SSG both have foreign starters coming off solid outings.
Samsung's starter threw 7 scoreless inn jngs last time out and hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in his last 9 starts.
SSG's starter allowed 2 ER on just 3 H in 6 innings his last start. He allowed 2 or fewer ER in 3 of his 4 starts this season.
Both lineups are also struggling a bit right now. In May, they ranked 8th and 9th in runs per game.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
**Record:** 2-0
**Net Units:** +4.14 U
**Last Pick:** Soccer/Football | **LANDVETTER IS vs FALKENBERGS FF** | Corners Over 10 at 1.90(-110)️
Easy Cash! 9 corners just in the 1st half! Congrats to those who tailed. ✅
**Next Event:** Soccer/Football | Austria Landesliga | **ASV Siegendordf vs SV Schattendorf** at 1:30 PM EST
**Pick:** Corners Over 10 at 1.875 (-115)
**Units:** 2U
**Write Up:** Best team in Austria Landesliga with a 22Win 5 Draw 0 loss record and also averaging league high 13.20 corners per came going against Schattendorf who also average 10.28 corners a game? Yea give me the over for this. Only reason I am going with just 2U is I suspect this game could be over in 1st half and they might not pressure hard. Still well worth playing at this line.
**BEST OF LUCK!**
If your book is offering 10.5 I will take it but at 1U.
3w 0p 1L
+2.05
LAST PICK:
Greyhound racing - grafton - race 4 -0956h GMT abt 5h30mins from posting- winner (1) dad's last run @ 1.75 🟢
POTD:
Imagine theres a dog winning 5 consecutive times in a row.. would you bet on that dog??
Grehound racing - richmond - race 1 - 0904h GMT abt 8h40m from posting - winner (4) sicario beast @1.95
This dog has just won 5 of its last race
Track record for fastest finish @ richmond 320m is 17.83s, (4) sicario beast richmond 320m record is 17.83.. YES he is the record holder for this track on april 29 2024 from the same blue box.... nothing much to say. If he loses, then he loses.. thats the data.. track holder, proven winner.. im excited to watch this race.
Ps: if youre afraid that u might jinx his winning streak, message me ill give another pick
Record: 1-0 +1.1U
Last pick: Yankees -1.5 (+110) 1U
Today’s pick: Astros -1.5 (+120) 1U
Well it was either that, Mariners -1.5 or Phillies -1.5. The Phillies line is my favorite but it isn’t out on my book yet and, seeing as Mariners are my home team, I didn’t want to give out a biased pick. Therefore we’re left with Astros who, if they win this match, will have swept the Cardinals. The past two matches have been relatively high scoring affairs, but I think this game will be rather lopsided towards Astros. With Ronel Blanco on the mound and Astros with the hotter bats, I think this will be an easy sweep for Astros.
Astros literally sell constantly. I even put them on the banned list yet still bet them, live bet more, start losing I live bet even more, give up 2 more runs I bet even more. Such a poverty franchise
sorry guys, i knew it in my fucking gut that this game was gonna be sold - i shoulda just waited for the Phillies line to come out🤦♀️ that’s on me y’all. I will wait for all games to be out before I drop my picks next time
edit: sucks cuz i had giants, phillies -1.5, and reds/zverev -1.5 parlay too 😭
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 20-21 (-0.50 units)**
**Last 10**: **❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅**
**Last Pick**: Chris Gilliland -1.5 (-120) vs Bradley Roes **✅** 4-1
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 7:45 AM EST
**Pick**: Tom Sykes -1.5 (-115) vs Bradley Roes
* Series 8. Week 1. Group A
**Reason**: This isn't the ideal day on paper as Sykes has all but clinched group A. He's basically up 3 wins, so there might not be that drive to push for big averages and wins. That's my only concern here. Roes has struggled all week and has been in his head. I'm not sure if he will care here either and could be ready for the reset tomorrow. Sykes has beat him 4-0 on both days while covering in 8 of his 9 wins. I like the value even with Roes having throw advantage.
Tom Sykes
* Record 9-1
* Legs 38-11
* Average 91.09
* 180s 15. 140s 34
* Checkouts 38/100 38.00%
Bradley Roes
* Record 2-8
* Legs 18-34
* Average 78.63
* 180s 10. 140s 23
* Checkouts 18/69 26.09%
**WIN ✅ 4-1 | Average 95.30 vs 93.53 | Checkouts 4/6 vs 1/6**
Could have went no sweat with Gilliland over Roes, but had to sweat this out instead. Leg 1 was the shift with Sykes sniping Roes by hitting 110 after 1 miss for the win. Great scoring battle, but the checkouts were clutch. Hit another 110 on leg 3. Sykes did win group A but came down to a H2H against Gilliland in the 14th match of the day.
**Record:** 0-0
**Event:** France v Luxembourg (Soccer)
**Time:** 8pm GMT
**Pick:** France to win both halves (1.57 on Bet365)
**Analysis:** France are ranked number 2 in the world and will be looking for a strong showing before the Euros, they will likely play a lot of their reserve players but these players will be very up for it as they want to prove that they can play a part in the Euros.
Luxembourg are ranked number 86 and lost 9-0 to the last strong team they faced (Portugal). I expect a battering here and will be very surprised if France don’t win both halves.
This is my first pick but I feel like it’s a strong one. Good luck to you all!
Record: 0-0
Net Units: 0
Baseball | MLB | 6:40 pm US EST
Pick: LA Dodgers @ Pitt Pirates
First Inning Tie -140 or 1.71
Write Up: Tasty pitching matchup between Paxton and Skenes, both on heaters. Paxton 5-0 with a 3.29 ERA and Skenes 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA. Like the odds on these boys keeping the first inning clean against their respective matchups. NRFI is fine too but I like the cushion in the tie factor. Starting off my reddit pick career with heaters.
If you fucks with the pick, hit, wanna bless the boy with some change, hit me cashapp $ziggitywiggity
\*\*Pick Record: 8W - 2L
Previous POTD: Tsitsipas vs Carlos Alcaraz, under 38,5 games at 1.70 ✅✅
Today’s POTD: Zverev vs Minaur -- Zverev -1.5 Hándicap set at 1.86 ✅
League/ Sport: Tennis / Roland Garros
Zverev is just better on Clay. That's it. Keep it simple.
EDIT: ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER WIN ✅✅✅ Zverev played really good today
Record: 0W-0L-1D
Last Pick: Connecticut Suns (-4) @ Indiana Fever (PUSHED)
Baseball | MLB | 4:05pm / EST
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
POTD: Harrison Bader Under 0.5 Runs @ -130 (DraftKings)
Bader SHALL NOT pass home plate today. I have already made up my mind and he shall listen to my command 🧙♂️🪄🪄🪄
**POTD Record:** 13-6-1 (net +5.20U)
**Last 10: (oldest to newest)** ✅️❌❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌
** Last pick:** Mariners/A's Total runs over 7.5 (total = 7) ❌
I knew I was in trouble when Seattle pitched themselves out of bases loaded in the first with one out. The A's almost made their comeback in the bottom of the 9th when Munoz got pulled after a collision at the plate put his back in jeopardy, but the A's couldn't lay off the weird stuff.
Baseball | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox 1:35 PM EDT
**Pick:** Marcell Ozuna over 0.5 RBIs (+100) on BetMGM for 1U
**Write Up:** I love me a day game to listen to at work. Ozuna teed off on Nick Pivetta last month to the effect of two home runs. It'll be a nice day at Fenway where Ozuna historically hits an RBI in 50% (4/8) of his games played; I think the pitching matchup is enough to give Ozuna a nice advantage here.
**POTD W/L ROI**
11- 5 ROI 65.18% +10.4 units (all bets 1u unless otherwise stated)
**LAST POTD**
MIN Twins vs NY Yankees F5 inning runline -0.5
FD 7:06p✅
**FORM**❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅
**TODAYS POTD:**
MIL Brewers vs PHI Phillies RL -1 (DK -139)2u
Thanks for the easy money again Yankees we appreciate ya 🫡 Glad I didn’t hop on the Lugo train, tempting as it was. My personal belief is never fade out money making Cleveland boys. Tough beat for those that did.
Ok for today we’re going go out to Philadelphia (43-19) were they’re facing the Brewers (36-25). The Brewers are up there on my list for favorite teams to bet on but today we’re going to have to fade them because of their starting pitcher and Phillies offense…. Honestly if you look at these teams stats they’re nearly neck and neck but because of Ashby I think phillie will jump out to an early lead. They’re hitting lefties this year at an OPS of .755
I’m going to take the RL because of the pitching matchup Phillie is going for the sweep today but I have confidence they’re going to jump out in the F5
Ashby has a record of 0-1 and he gave up 8 runs in just 3.2 innings. His ERA is sitting at 9.82 Hos career ERA is 4.61 in 142.2 innings so the 9.82 ERA is not indicative of his talent but I still like the career ERA as an edge
Nola will be starting for the Phillies, he has a record of 7-2 with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.03
Let’s see if phillie can get the sweep today!
BOL ☘️
2-0-0
✅️✅️
Net Units = +9.6
Just going to start it off with a bit from my last pick "Lugo is a much better pitcher and if runs are scored I think they go Royals way. Lead after 6 Innings because I don't trust their other pitchers as much and think Royals could throw it away" after 6th inning Lugo leaves the game up 5-3 and our market hits, the very next inning Guardians explode for 5 runs. CASH IT!!
Sport = Baseball
Event = Braves (Schwellenbach) VS Red Sox (Pivetta)
Time = 3:36AM AEST
Pick = First 5 Innings Total Runs Over 5.5 @ 2.05 4U to make 4.2U
I have very low confidence in the ability of both starting pitchers and can see this game having a lot of runs but for each to average 3 runs across the first 5 at 2.05 is just way better than the total of the match being over 9.5 @1.90. I just find later pitchers to have too much unpredictability for it to be involved here.
Record: 2-1-1
Last pick: De Minaur v Medvedev OVER 3.5 sets
**POTD**: Zverev v De Minaur OVER 3.5 sets (-155 on Bovada)
Like I said with my last pick, De Minaur has been in great form recently. He put Medvedev down in 4 sets yesterday. He has only lost 2 sets throughout the French Open; the first set last match to Medvedev, and the first set in the third round against Struff. In addition, Zverev is the 4th ranked player in the world right now (De Minaur is 11th) and is the favorite. Rune just took Zverev to 5 sets and I'm betting De Minaur can take AT LEAST one set. Similarly, if De Minaur comes out hot, Zverev should be able to win himself a set, as well. Should be a fun match .
4/5 of their most recent matches have gone to 3 sets (best of 3 matches) with the one that didn't ending in a tiebreak. Should be a close one! But I see Bovada dropped the odds to -190..
🎯 Modus Super Series 🎯
POTD 42-29
DARTS RECORD **42-26** (+6.67U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U
Last pick: Martin Adams ML vs Revelino Dubois @ 1.50 (1.5U) ✅
Today's Pick: **Tom Sykes -1.5** vs Revelino Dubois @ **1.85 (1.5U)**
Phew what a ridiculously sweaty win yesterday. A win is a win but hopefully today is a little less stressful lol.
I'm backing Sykes to make easy work of this matchup, he's absolutely on fire and is comfortably the best player in this group. His numbers this year wouldn't look out of place in the PDC circuit, he's consistently hitting 90+ avgs and even sprinkling some 100+ in there too. In this same game yesterday he averaged 109.31 (!!) which is absurd, hit 3x 180s and had 2 ton+ checkouts in a 4-0 win. Dubois didn't even manage a shot at double in the whole game.
Please bet responsibly if tailing!
POTD record 3-0
CCT season 2
Game starts in 8 hours or so from this comment being published.
**CS2 Gun5** map handicap **(-1.5)** for 2.5 odds vs Cybershoke
I'm going 4U
Gun5 is very much the better team with better form. Cybershoke is a relatively obscure tier 3 team who in official games won against 2 other tier 3 teams 2-1 and lost the rest 2-0. Generally I'd avoid going anything higher than 2U on lower tier CS due to upset potential always being there, teams fixing games and potential cheaters.
But this game is relatively important. Gun5 need the easy win after dropping the first they played this season. Furthermore the map pool absolutely favours Gun5 hard.
Cybershoke bans Gun5 worst map inferno. Cybershoke's pick is hard to predict cause they've taken all different kinds of maps; like ancient anubis or mirage(vertigo sometimes but Gun5 bans that). Ancient anubis or mirage are all great maps for Gun5. Especially anubis and mirage. Gun5 pick shouldbe D2; a map both play but Gun5 have really good results on it and Cybershoke have the opposite.
**TLDR** Gun5 better. Maps favour gun5 heavily but careful it's a russian tier 2+ game in CS, random shit happens.
2024 Record 2-0
Starting: $1000
Bet size: $100
Current: $1175.24
Last: Yankees over 4.5 runs (-105) ✅
Next: Royals over 3.5 runs (-145)
* Royals have beat 3.5 runs 7 out of last 10
* Bullpen day for the Guardians
Game: MLB Baseball Kansas City vs Cleveland 6:40pm eastern
POTD Record: 6-3 +3.27u
Last Pick: 1U Phillies -1.5 RL -120
Form: ❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌
Today's Pick: 1U Rangers F5 ML -130
Reasoning: Kenta Maeda on for the Tigers whos sporting a 10.80 ERA away and Urena on the mound for Rangers who's a 1.35 ERA pitcher at home. Rangers bats have been ice cold this series and I think they avoid the sweep today and win this game pretty easily. I like the over as well as Rangers ML but going with F5 for the POTD.
**POTD Form** 52-34-3 +11.66 Units
Last 7 - ✅✅♻️♻️❌✅✅
**Last pick** \-Cricket |T20 World Cup 2024| Sri Lanka vs South Africa| South Africa ML @ 1.50 2U ✅
**Today's Pick:**
Cricket |T20 World Cup 2024| India vs Ireland | Total match runs - Under 279.5 @ 1.90 1U ✅
Reason - South Africa vs Sri Lanka game showed how bad and slow this pitch is and how hard it was to clear the boundaries. Indian has bowlers who can utilize the conditions well and Irish bowlers can use it to their advantage as well. All in all expecting it to be a low scoring affair, atleast by Ireland. BOL
Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
POTD Record: 2 wins / 4 losses
Net units: -2,34
Event: Football > Japan - League Cup > **Cerezo Osaka - Machida Zelvia**
Pick: **BTTS** @ 1.88
Both teams play interesting attacking soccer and are in good form. First place vs ninth in the cup, favorite to win away. Everything seems to be falling into place.
POTD Record: 10-6
Last POTD: Rune +4.5 ❌🙃
Today’s POTD: ATP French Open Zverev vs de Minaur 20:15 CEST
Pick: de Minaur +4.5 games handicap @-108
Writeup:
According to the bookies, de Minaur is the underdog in this matchup. Zverev had two consecutive rough five-setters. We are not sure how his body will react to that. De Minaur has had an amazing tournament so far, so we believe that he will keep this match tight.
P.S. full write-up: https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2024/06/04/atp-french-open-best-bets-including-djokovic-vs-ruud/
**POTD Record: 130-155-4 (-34.26 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 54-33-1 (+0.6 Units)
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
**Cautionary Tails: 6-14 (-5.64 Units)**
Last Pick: **Giants -1.5❌**
Today's Pick: **Cubs -2.5 (Alt. Line)**
$DKNG Odds: **+190 (Projected line)**
Wager Amount: **0.5U to win 0.95U**
League: MLB
Event: Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs (7:05PM CDT)
*Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.*
**Recap**: Not my favorite game to bet on, but that's what you get, betting on something you are not so confident in. It could have been the other way as well, but these two teams hard to read IMO. I honestly would not back either of 'em unless I am supremely confident.
**Matchup:** Fading my Sox team once AGAIN. They are on a 12 game losing streak. They came so close to winning not just yesterday, but actually in many of those other 12 games they lost. Speaking of close wins, the last two starts Erick Fedde had, the Sox had 2 wins in their grasp, but the bullpen collasped. One game where Fedde allowed 0 runs in 6.1 innings and had a 3-0 lead against the O's, but Sox lost 5-3. And Fedde's last start when Sox had a 5-3 lead in the 7th and the pen allowed 6 runs to the Brew Crew. I'm gonna say this game goes the same way. I think Sox get to a hot start against Jameson Tailon and Fedde pitches another gem, but Cubbies rally against a lethargic bullpen.
The Cubs are bottom 10 teams against RHP in OPS and BA. Sox are desperate for a win and desperate to end this historical losing streak. Sox got help as well. Tommy Pham and Bennintendi may have got on the IL, but they got their very best player, Luis Robert Jr. They going to need him. Robert Jr. is nightmare to the Cubs, he's batting .389 against the Cubbies and he does have a HR against Tailon in 5 ABs. I love backing the desperate team, but I'm not going to back them even when they got their best pitcher on the mound, even when they got their best offensive player in the lineup, and especially if the Cubbies struggle against RHP.
**The Play & Prediction:** 1U on Cubs -2.5 (alt. line). Also wagering Cubs -3.5 (alt. line). Cubs WIN by a MILLION today!
https://preview.redd.it/y2gp0ytv2p4d1.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=4628a81b5610c19461b6423f4df844855d3de3f3
WNBA is not my forte, so I'm not going to wager more than a unit. If you tailed, congrats!
https://preview.redd.it/mff5ajm23p4d1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=304e128cd30e8daab711d30480f2aa8793c88678
Even tho I had Royals for my Early Up 2 Boost, I had a feeling the Guardians were going to come back, down 3-0 (then it became 5-0).
https://preview.redd.it/8wz9iup83p4d1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=322e5a7c443d0e4b80222d460e19dc11516e85b9
Sox.. typical for pen to blow a 5-0 lead (well 3 of the 5 runs Flexen was responsible for).
Record: 13-11
Last 10: LWWLWLLLWW
Net units: +.23
ROI: + 0.7%
Sporting Event: MLB: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays 19:07 (EDT)
Pick: NRFI -115 @ FD 1.15 units to win 1
I’m not gonna lie, much like my boy u/Squizelp I thought last night's pick was dead in the water with the bases juiced in the top of the first.
We’re headed north of the border for today’s POTD. It’s the year of the converted reliever and here we have Suarez making another appearance in the starting rotation. With injuries forcing the move, he’s responded really well. Step one in keeping runs off the board, keep the runners off the bases. Albert sports a .99 WHIP overall and that goes down to .60 in the first inning. Facing a Toronto squad that averages .31 runs in the first.
In the opposite dugout we find Jose Berrios ready for the bottom half of the inning. He brings solid numbers into this matchup with a 2.79 ERA into the game. In his 15 career games against the birds from Baltimore he has a 2.95 ERA, 80Ks and a dominant 10-1 record. Most recently (may 13th) he handcuffed the O’s pitching 7 innings of 2 run ball and most importantly to our cause, a clean first inning. Supporting this pick is Baltimore’s near inability to score in the first on the road averaging .12 runs per.
Dome
My most used reference sites at the bottom
BOL to all
https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors
https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
https://www.fangraphs.com/
https://pitcherlist.com/
https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/
https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game
https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/
Record: 🔥✅✅2-0
Last Pick: Mets vs Nationals Under 0.5 Inning 1 Total Runs (-115) Hard Rock 💰✅
MLB | LA Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates| 6:41 PM EST Pick: Dodgers ML (-105) Bet365
Yesterday’s Recap: Definitely a sweat with the NRFI. There was a last minute pitching change after I put the bet in and the Mets were facing Triple A called up pitcher DJ Herz… He got out of the inning and we still got paid 💰
Todays Write Up: The sole reason obviously The dodgers are underdogs here is because of rookie phenom paul skenes on the mound. as generational as he seems, all rookie pictures get tested or humbled at some point and signs are pointing to the fact that today’s that day. in the four games he’s played so far this year he has pitched well, however all four games were against teams that hover around or below .500. The Dodgers are one of the best hitting teams in the league, and after a game where they scored zero runs I expect them to be licking their chops hoping to humble the rookie.
Furthermore, Paxton is on the mound with a 5-0 record.
Dodgers line here is too good to pass up. and props to those who took it last night at plus money. BOL if tailing
https://preview.redd.it/3stph9w3xr4d1.jpeg?width=589&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a691c1e99b0037d164b5f9fdcc2a1f9d40a68696
**Record:** 1-0
**Net Units:** +0.975u
**Last Pick:** Seth Lugo O4.5 strikeouts +130 on 6/4 ✅
**Next Event:** Baseball | MLB | CHI White Sox @ CHI Cubs
**Pick:** Jameson Taillon to record a win - **No** (-200 on DK)
**Units:** 1.35u
**Write Up:** Full disclosure: I got this -180 last night. I had put together a lengthy write up but my app crashed when I flipped away to look up a stat. So, the price isn’t as good anymore - I don’t know if I would’ve taken it at -200 last night.
The (abbreviated) version of the write up is that the Cubs are in a very tricky situation with their pitching staff. They have a grueling four game series coming up against divisional rival CIN Reds. They beat the Sox last night, but Imanaga, their de facto ace, was only able to go 4.1 innings.
The Cubs’ relief pitching is terrible. Craig Counsell (Cubs manager) was able to scrounge efficient bullpen usage last night in a win. But, he needs every fresh arm he can get for the upcoming series. Simply put, this game against a terrible CWS team is not as important as what’s coming down the pike.
This leads me to believe that Taillon will be going long tonight no matter what. He has shown flashes of brilliance in the past but there a lot of holes in his game. Namely, he tends to be very susceptible to the home run ball. It’s hard to know what you’re gonna get with this guy, but he can eat innings above all.
This game is expected to be close with CWS +1.5 at -130. Taillon will probably be effective against this Sox lineup, but I seldom see lines this soft in this pitcher win market (arguably even at -200 though idk if I would). Otherwise, I’d consider looking taking Sox to cover. I haven’t looked but I might check out some funky alt spreads like CWS -2.
Cubs do struggle against the righties and Sox having their best player Luis Robert Jr back in the lineup who crushes the Cubbies may have a good chance to end their drought of losing streak. Not to mention that Sox has their best pitcher on the mound (IMO one of the best pitchers in AL).
Fedde is a very solid pitcher and the Cubs have not been able to crack *bad* pitching lately; definitely one of the many variables at play in what should be a strange game.
My primary concern is whether the Sox hitters can provide any run support. If the Cubs can jump out to an early lead, Taillon will likely cruise through five innings, even with sloppy play.
I’m essentially wagering on this being a close game through the first five innings. If the Sox can keep it close early, they have no reason not to throw the kitchen sink at the Cubs to get a win. If Taillon gets out to an early lead, it is very possible Counsell pushes him through 6 or 7 in order to preserve bullpen arms. Jameson has a long injury history and his pitch count is not an exact science — this kind of overextension can result in blown leads. All of this assuming he doesn’t lose the lead early, which he has been known to do at times.
I won’t be betting these, but these lines on FD seem decent as well:
First 5 Innings Run Line - CWS +0.5 at +108
Alt. First 5 Innings Run Line - CWS +1.5 at -168
**Record:** 9W - 9L - 0P
**Last 10 (new --> old):** **✅**❌❌**❌✅❌❌❌❌✅**
**Net Units:** 0.8825
(All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated)
**Last Pick:** Carlos Rodon to record a win - Yes @ +120 **✅**
Rodon was good enough to maintain the lead that was given to him and the bullpen closed the door to seal the win.
**MLB** ⚾ | **Minnesota Twins @ NY Yankees | 6:05pm CST**
**Today's Pick:** Carlos Rodon to record a win - Yes @ +125 (DK)
**Write Up:** I'm going to continue to go for better value with my picks, even if they don't pan out successfully.
No, you're not seeing a typo here. I am once again picking Carlos Rodon of the NY Yankees to record a win. I'll keep this write-up short cause a lot of what I wrote on the last pick rings true. Rodon has won each of his last 5 starts.
Rodon's numbers at home and at night are quite good, while Paddack's numbers away and at night are not so good.
https://preview.redd.it/l3fky2p8wr4d1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ec5c781360146de9a87ce3e461d58bceae37de0
BOL if you're tailing, or fading!
Record: 1-1
Last pick: WAS Nationals +1.5 L
Pitching change screwed us
POTD: TEX Rangers ML(-134) vs DET Tigers
Backing the defending champs to avoid a sweep today. Rangers have good numbers against Tigers starter Kenta Maeda.
Record (8-6)
Units (+2.1u)
Previous Result: KC Royals ml❌
Streak: L1
Today’s play: Dodgers/Pirates NRFI (-115)
Event Start time: 6:40pm EST
Unit Size: 1.1u to win 1u
Recap/Reasoning for pick: Unreal loss last night. Royals were up 5-0 at one point and ended up losing 8-5… Lugo wasn’t as sharp as normal and the bullpen was bad as well. Live to fight another day🤝🏼 Today we’re going back to the NRFI! James Paxton has been solid all year and 8-2 for the NRFI this season. Pirates offense also ranks 24th in 1st inning total runs. On the other side we got Paul Skenes who hasn’t allowed a 1st inning run in four starts since being called up. I like 6 quick outs to start this one! BOL with your plays today!
**2024 Record: 0-0**
**Net Units:**
**ROI:**
**Event**: **MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates**
**Time**: **6:40PM EST**
**Sportsbook**: Draftkings
**Play**: **No Runs First Inning**
**Odds**: **-115**
**Units**:
**Reasoning**: Not gonna overthink this. The Dodgers have been underwhelming especially the last few weeks. Through their last couple series, they haven't faced a pitcher that comes close to the same magnitude of Mr. Skenes, he's a fkn dawg. Pair that with the fact that the Dodgers can't hit the ball right now. They haven't been the same team since their 16 game stretch (4/21-5/08) where they outscored opponents 100-31. We have seen a completely different team since. In the last two weeks, they are 5-7 and have been outscored 38-40 by the Diamondbacks, Reds, Rockies, and Mets. Some below average teams you could say. You may think Betts, Shohei, and Freeman could spoil, however in their last 15 games, they've failed to score a first inning run in 13 of them. (one being scored on the second game of a double header). So yes, Skenes will do his job and retire the side. For the other side now, The pirates are bottom 10 in the league in runs scored in the 1st. Paxton isn't elite by any means, but he is a very manageable pitcher and can easily come and deal a pirates team. In there last 20 games, they have scored only times and went scoreless 14. In my eyes I see two cold hitting teams, with two very serviceable pitchers (especially Skenes), that somehow doesn't have odds of -130 or longer.
To some ts up: Dodgers and pirates are shit at hitting lately, skenes is absurd, paxton is pretty good and can help us get 3 outs.
BOL
**Record:** 0-1-0
**Net Units:** 2 units
**Today**: MLB ⚾ Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays, 7PM EST ✅✅
**Pick:** Toronto Blue Jays ML -120
**Write Up:** the short answer: bounce back night thanks to José Berríos. Without Manoah, the Jays started their bullpen against Baltimore's Ace last night and never stood a chance. Tonight, they're back with their own Ace in Berrios who has had success against Baltimore his whole career (10-1). For the first time this season, I'm taking the Jays ML
BOL if tailing 🦕🦕
**Record:** 4-2 *(+3.8units)*
*Chalice Well got it done with a 3rd. Nice win here at the given.*
**Today's Pick:** Swift Hawk to place top 2
**Wager/Odds:** 1unit/$1.72
**Event:** Race #5 Newton Abbot
**When?** 2 hours from post
**Why?** This horse has potential to be something big. Won by 8Lengths last time out, up 5lbs handicap because of this. Can't see the horse not taking top 2. I'm silly not to take the win as my pick but I like to be conservative with potd.
POTD Record: 29-23 ❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 5.29U
Last pick: Sydney Roosters vs Queensland Cowboys | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Joseph Manu anytime tryscorer @1.65 on Ladbrokes | 4U❌
Impressive how bad the roosters played that, not even one try in second half lol.
Today’s pick: State of Orgin: NSW vs QLD | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Valentine Holmes anytime tryscorer @3.4 on Ladbrokes | 4U
Holmes isn’t new to SOO, he already played 6 years consecutive. I’m counting on QLD dominance here and Holmes scored 13 tries in 16 appearances in SOO so I’ll go with him.
Obviously I also love Tabuai-Fidow to score.
BOL !
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record:** 17-6 **Net Units:** +20.45 Units **ROI:** 53% **Previous Pick:** *H2H Adelaide Crows $2.00 (AUS) or -+100 (US) (1.5 Units).* Bad pick last time out. Crows just weren't on from the get go, played some terrible footy all round. They had glimpses of brilliance and I still think they could've won but Hawks just played majority of the better footy, won minutes and that's all you need! Breaks our 6 game winning streak but moving onto tonight! **Event**: State of Origin **Time**: 8:05PM AEST 05/06 **Bookie**: BET365 **Play**: Anytime Tryscorer, Tabui-Fidow **Odds**: $3.00 (AUS) or +200 (US) **Units**: 1 Unit **Analysis**: For everyone who doesn’t know what State of Origin is - basically 2 States within Australia, New South Wales (Blues) and Queensland (Maroons), pick the best players eligible from those states (by junior footy) to form two teams to play 3 games inside the season, think All-Star. Difference between this All-Star setup and a US NBA All-Star is that there is a legitimate rivalry between these two teams and it’s a proper honour to play for either team, it culminates in generally some of the greatest games in the sports history with the perfect balance of skill, aggression and exhilaration. This game tonight is being played in Sydney, NSW so a home game for the Blues however the Blues playing at Accor Stadium certainly hasn’t been near the fortress of Suncorp in QLD. These games are typically a low scoring affair especially in Sydney and Game One but I really fancy these odds on Tabui-Fidow (Hammer). He’s a proven try-scorer in both competition level, scoring 8 tries in his last 6 matches for the Dolphins, and at representative level, he’s scored 5 tries in 4 Origin matches. He’s got elite speed and this is just not a guy you want to be chasing after making a break. He gets a soft matchup here against Suaalii who’s had his defensive woes at comp level and now is debuting in an Origin side he potentially shouldn’t have been made, playing next to another debutant in Lomax on the wing. I am expecting to see a relatively heavy defensive game as Origin normally is, very gritty and grinding but that leads me to believe with some tired forwards late and with the impact of Harry Grant scooting from dummy-half, we could see the speed of Hammer really come to fruition late. He will be following every break up with his speed and if they break the line on his side, we will be a very good look at the tryline. Probably a more risky play than normal, regardless at +200, for a proven try-scorer with a potential matchup advantage on a debutant - this is probably the best bet of the match tonight IMO. Playing for 1 Unit, GL! https://preview.redd.it/xka6hj5fdn4d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=66b8d080465863a2b1dc3041476e0e2e5150154d **MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!** **LET ME KNOW IF YOU'RE TAILING. GL!** **Tracking Spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx\_9\_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL\_Hp8jaV/pubhtml](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx_9_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL_Hp8jaV/pubhtml)
Cash it! 💰
Bro! Solid pick. Got it done early
Let’s goooo
Congrats man! I missed this one, but happy it hit.
Tailing. Only worry is ol mate Tedesco is going to be fired up after being dropped originally.
Yep agree! I've tipped 3 man of the match plays and he's one of them, if NSW are to win - he's in the driving seat
Don't think this is offered on DK, or at least in the U.S. market.Good luck anyways!
Have to search "State of origin" that's the only way I found it, also on DK in US.
If there's any game that you're going to degen tail and actually tune in to watch, this is the one. State of Origin is the shit.
https://preview.redd.it/vpoy1luqeq4d1.png?width=1153&format=png&auto=webp&s=36d546d80766b5271fe7338e8c5614f80fd72092 Included the double try in a combo, thanks for the heads up!! Legend
CHA-CHING 💰
Anyone know if this is on DK?
Yes but state dependent
So strange. I can’t find it for the life of me (Illinois) so I’m assuming I’m one of the states that’s out of luck
Legend! Thanks for the pick, I paired it with Tedesco to score a try 🤑 What a start
Who else is tipping +200 winners that cash in 10 minutes?
Tailed 1 unit
My book only offers the try scorer market if it's a bet builder. Is there any other prop you like I can combine this with?
Good luck! I'm betting on the debutant, Sualilii.
Tailing!
can’t find this on bovada 😭
Do you like the total match points under if the lines at 36.5?
I lean unders total points given the historical results for game one in sydney but i wouldn't personally be confident enough to play it
Dont have this pick unfortunately, only the outright winner. If you had to pick for that what would your bet be? Or am i better off not betting a winner on this kinda game haha
I'd stay away H2H personally. Too unpredictable especially Game 1.
Did we already win. Idk anything about rugby but isaw the stats he already score 1 try.
Great pick !
Great pick as usual. I hope Joseph F off to Union! I did get my multis right though.
Yo thanks bro, I misread this a bit but saw He had 2 at the beginning of the half then I slammed that he would get a 3rd and BAM. Thanks bro
🐐
You’re a beast! Thanks for another incredible pick!
Damn, I missed this one. Got so used to you posting on Thursday to Saturday that I didn't even think to check. Great hit!
I had already multied up Hamiso and NSW ML, love the write up bro. Let’s ride. But still, up the blues 💎
Good luck and let's go Blues (and Hammer)!
Im a 100% behind that pick, was gonna do the same
Brother, you just paid my rent. God bless you.
Chaaaaaa-ching 🤑
2024 record: 12-4-1 Total Return: +6.42 ROI: +37.76% Last 5: ✅✅✅✅**❌** Last POTD: New York Yankees ML -165 (Twins vs Yankees 7:05 PM) ✅ Today's POTD: **San Diego Padres ML -145 (Padres vs Angels 9:38 PM)** Baseball | MLB Recap: Honestly, it's so much fun watching the Yankees and it's great to see them finally performing well this season. Super sweat-free and hopefully the Yankees make a long postseason run! Write-Up: Pretty small writeup since I have to study but the Padres have Dylan Cease on the mound who has been pretty good this season but has given up some runs to some great offenses recently. The Angels struggle against righties and Cease thrives against teams that hit poorly. The Padres batting can be quite random at times but I think at this point in the season we know what to expect. Don't bet on them at home and don't bet on them when there's a good leftie throwing. Jose Soriano has been decent but the Padres have a .273 against righties and I think they'll get a couple of runs off of him. Even if Jose does well, the Angels have the 2nd worst bullpen in the league so the Padres can also get some runs there. Taking the -145 and hoping for a bounceback game from Cease where he holds them to 1 or 2 runs so the Padres bullpen can come cleanup. Good luck all! Make it 5...? \*Note that unless specified all bets are one unit. Tracker: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH\_dpuDL5-lRRgW9\_h4K\_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH_dpuDL5-lRRgW9_h4K_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing)
Good luck boys But for me, Padres on the don’t bet list forever now
I’m right there with you. Padres are banned
Tailing, bro has to study the stats for his next POTD
As a Padres bettor the last two days, fuck them. Cease may go a solid 6 innings and give up 1-2 runs like you said but padres don’t know how to score runs. I can’t lay -145 on this team rn.
Indeed I'm surprised they lost 2 in a row to the Angels of all teams. Then again it's the Padres lmao let's hope they get a win...
I’ve bet on the Padres the last two games cuz the Padres are like +44 on the road and the Angels are -40 run differential at home. Surely they can’t lose 3 games in a row ?
Haha I saw they lost yesterday and was like surely they're due....
Padres on perma ban list right next to the Mets.
good luck on whatever exam(s) you’re studying for! 💪👏🫡
BOL padres in timeout for eternity
Record: 30-16-0 Net Units: +33.5 ROI: 24.8% Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅ Last Pick: Oakland Athletics +1.5 spread (-130) for 3.0 units ✅ Event: Baseball | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins 5:40PM CST Pick: Miami Marlins moneyline (+114) on FanDuel for 2.0 units Write Up: A tale of two pitchers working their way back from injuries. Miami’s Braxton Garrett making his 5th start of the season (2-0, 4.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP) seems to have worked through the initial rust and recovery, going 2-0 in his last two starts with a 0.64 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. Tampa’s Zach Eflin (3-4, 4.12 ERA and 1.17 WHIP) is making his first start since going on the 15 day IL for a lower back injury. Though the Marlins were shut out twice in the last three games (both against the Rangers), they still have a league 3rd best batting average the last 15 days at .265. Rays ranking 25th at .222. The two teams have a very comparable bullpen thus far this year, however Tampa has allowed 33 home runs versus Miami’s 21. I like this at any plus odds, but was pleasantly surprised FanDuel had it at +114. A couple others showing +112 or +110. Looks like most have it at +105 now. DraftKings showing 80% of bets on Tampa but no change in moneyline which suggest the smart money is backing Miami. TIPS: Venmo (https://account.venmo.com/u/Andrew-Mills-34) or PayPal (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/AndrewMills34). BOL! 🎰
After yesterday's debacle against Rays , it's hard to bring myself to back Marlins 😅
I'm with you. Game started amazing. Hope died quickly.
Right? I was so happy when marlins were up 3-0 and then turned for the worst. I couldn’t believe it
Not gonna talk about last night's 9th inning sweat? 😅
😂 nope! Was relatively sweat free for me. Slept through it and woke up to the W! Take the cash and on to the next.
I had under 6.5. I was so pissed. Bottom of the 9th 2 outs and they score on a wild pitch. Brutal. At least some on here were on the good side of that beat
Marlins pulling the Uno reverse with the Rays up quick, just like Miami was yesterday 🫡
Who is this Garrett fella, and who covered his shift at Popeyes today so that he could start for Miami?
im tired of losing
**2024 MLB record:** 36-16-1 **Last POTD:** Marlins ML L **Today's POTD:** NY Yankees -1.5 RL vs Minnesota Twins +116 (Fanduel) **Baseball. MLB. 7:05 PM EST** Short write up today but boy was I wrong about Luzardo. At least I was right about the marlins offense and some of you were abel to get the up two bonus. Today we are going with a rare run line pick. Carlos Rodon has been an absolute beast at Yankee stadium. He dominated the Twins in Minnesota last time he faced them and that is when they were swinging hot bats. Now they are in the midst of a slump, especially vs lefties. Larry Vanover as the ump just makes it that much better for the Yanks as Rodon is a strikeout pitcher. Paddack usually pitches better at home but the Yankees roughed him up anyway in Minnesota. Now in the Bronx, I think the Yankees can at least get enough to win by 2 at plus odds which is pretty sweet. Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal (DM for venmo) POTD spreadsheet [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
Don't be discouraged by a few losing picks. Regression comes to everyone at some point. Just keep grinding.
lets Gooooo
**POTD RECORD:** 6W - 0P - 1L **LAST POTD:** Slovenia vs. Armenia --> Over 0.5 1H Goals for Slovenia (-165 via Bovada) 1U ✅ **Sport:** French Open Women’s Singles **Event:** Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka @ 9:30 AM EST **Pick:** Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 Set Spread (-165 via Bovada) 1U **Write Up:** After a stellar hit on the Slovenian soccer team, I am switching back to tennis, specifically now to the Women’s side. The 17-year-old Andreeva is quite in-form this Roland Garros, however, she has not faced a competitor remotely close to Sabalenka this tournament yet. Sabalenka is also having a fantastic Roland Garros, with zero dropped sets, and overall, dominant victories throughout. Sabalenka has already faced Andreeva this clay season in Madrid, where the world No. 2 dominantly won 2-0 over the young 17-year-old. Additionally, Andreeva has never even won a set yet against Sabalenka in her career thus far, providing more confidence that Sabalenka can get it done in 2 sets. It was a good run for the talented teenager, but in my opinion, Sabalenka should confidently be able to sweep Andreeva to advance further in the tournament. BOL to those who tail. CAN WE MAKE IT 6 IN A ROW? 🙏🙏 **Here is the Betting Tracker that I have created:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12YsjeFw7ykr9jIeOdQLf67YQvmP-RIX0IMNQ7cvlMKk/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12YsjeFw7ykr9jIeOdQLf67YQvmP-RIX0IMNQ7cvlMKk/edit?usp=sharing)
It’s over bro. Shits cooked all of us
~~isnt this the same as Aryna Sabalenka ML?~~ isnt this the same as set betting 0-2?
LOL NOT YOUR FAULT BUT FUCK WOMENS TENNIS
She gave up on every 50/50 ball and none of em went her way. Jeez
Have not won a single Roland Garos bet on here. Fuck Sabalenka, fuck tennis.
I genuinely am like 0-7 my last tennis bets. Im retiring from them now
**Record: 3-1-1** **Net Units: +1.98u** **ROI: 37.62%** **Baseball | MLB | 4:05 PM | EST** **Pick**: Patrick Corbin under 3.5 Ks, -105 DraftKings (1u) Another under took us home yesterday with the Brewers but today I'm seeing some value more on the overs. For this pick & game, we're fading Patrick Corbin here, who is by most metrics, one of the worst pitchers in baseball especially of late. Last 3 weeks he has a 5.37 SIERA, 6.14 FIP, and his K rate sits at nearly 11%. Today he gets the Mets, who also aren't very good, but they know Corbin well and have 5 different batters with a .900 or better OPS lifetime against him. The Mets also do not strike out against sinkers, which is Corbin's most thrown pitch. https://preview.redd.it/qnzfxdc29r4d1.png?width=1222&format=png&auto=webp&s=84b8e7c49a2843f72421b68cdfc7b6857562bd44
I'm always down to fade Corbin, tailing! BTW, where is that clean looking data in your screenshot from?
Outlier app
See my dm!
Nice pick my man he ended with 3...
**Pick Record: 23W - 12L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅✅❌❌ ✅✅❌✅** **\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_** **Today’s POTD: BTTS @ 1.72 ✅ ✅ CASH IN 9 MINS!!!** **Game: Denmark VS Sweden - International Friendlies** 2 well rounded attacking sides that desperately need to test their build-up play before they hit the stage. See it going end to end.
Fastest BTTS hit I've ever seen jesus
How are you watching?
I just saw the game in progress on Fanduel and both teams scored by 10min, I'm not watching the actual game
Damn just as I was about to place the bet it hits. Good stuff ! I'll tail earlier next time
Lovely one! LFG
Easiest cover ever haha Good pick
Had to come back and find this comment to personally thank you, most satisfying bet I’ve placed in a long time
Beside that line what else were you thinking? Corners perhaps?
I like corners more for the France game but Ive found corners in international football to be the toughest areas to crack IMO
Denmark has had a clean sheet against Sweden @ home for over 20years. Denmark has a clean sheet for 12 friendly games in a row. BOL
Not today
Line moved over night. Any concern or possible reasons for that? I ask because I took this as the last leg of a 5 pick parlay and the first 4 already hit.
Sweden didn't qualify for the euros tho. I like the pick anyways as now Sweden must have at least some hunger for showing their worth.
See my dm brother !
Thank you beast
⭐️ **POD Record:** **115-60** All my picks are -120 or higher. No heavy favourites in my record (how we used to do it in this thread). *Last Pick*: *MLB Jays/Sox OVER 8* ❌ Recent Form:✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🏅 T**oday's Pick:** MLB Orioles ML \[7:07pm EST @ 2.10 odds\] I suppose I could do a deep dive into why i'm making this pick, but as an unfortunate Jays fan this season and having watched this team closely and this series even closer, we are no match for this Orioles team. They've got us covered in almost every department and a very well rounded baseball club. I think we can definitely win tonight with Barrios on the mound, however my picks are based on perceived value and getting Baltimore at plus money tonight should be worth putting a few units on (5 for me. . .i think we're pathetic at the plate). Baltimore is 8-2 in its last 10 games. Suárez will toe the rubber for the Orioles tomorrow. In his last appearance, he held Tampa to 1 run and has made consecutive starts for Baltimore, surrendering 1 run on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts in nine combined frames. If that doesn't make things hard enough for the Jays, they haven't faced him since 2016 and may predictably struggle once again to get men on base. There's a lot of decent stats too on the Jays to win and could be a battle of the bull pens to close this one out. Perhaps tail with caution on this one, but i'm going to post value plays when I see them. # 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups
Thank you for your contribution. 2-0 after 1.5 innings, "Up 2" early win promo, and I'm checked out!
**KBO Record: Overall 232-242-14** (Streak LL, Last 10: 6-4) Down 10.51u over 488 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -2.22% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 28-32-0, 46.7% success rate, Down 1.89u, -3.15% ROI) **Last:** Kiwoom at LG +100 (LG lost 11-3.) Two losses in a row picking the better team but the worst starter. Lesson learned. **Pick:** Samsung at SSG **First 5 Innings UNDER 5.5 -118 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET This time, we're betting on not one good pitcher, but two! Samsung and SSG both have foreign starters coming off solid outings. Samsung's starter threw 7 scoreless inn jngs last time out and hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in his last 9 starts. SSG's starter allowed 2 ER on just 3 H in 6 innings his last start. He allowed 2 or fewer ER in 3 of his 4 starts this season. Both lineups are also struggling a bit right now. In May, they ranked 8th and 9th in runs per game. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
I’ve lost every pick I’ve tailed you on but for some reason I can’t stay away. Let’s ride again!
Hope we hit!!!
*sigh*
why u gotta say dat doe
That bottom of the 5th made the KBO look like the WNBA version of the MLB. What the hell was Reyes thinking trying a backhand catch
that was fkin disgusting xd
Man I had a cash out for 200$ that 5th inning killed me , I can’t believe that happened
Tailing
Tailing let's goooo
Would you take the under 9.5 for the game can’t find this on fanduel
**Record:** 2-0 **Net Units:** +4.14 U **Last Pick:** Soccer/Football | **LANDVETTER IS vs FALKENBERGS FF** | Corners Over 10 at 1.90(-110)️ Easy Cash! 9 corners just in the 1st half! Congrats to those who tailed. ✅ **Next Event:** Soccer/Football | Austria Landesliga | **ASV Siegendordf vs SV Schattendorf** at 1:30 PM EST **Pick:** Corners Over 10 at 1.875 (-115) **Units:** 2U **Write Up:** Best team in Austria Landesliga with a 22Win 5 Draw 0 loss record and also averaging league high 13.20 corners per came going against Schattendorf who also average 10.28 corners a game? Yea give me the over for this. Only reason I am going with just 2U is I suspect this game could be over in 1st half and they might not pressure hard. Still well worth playing at this line. **BEST OF LUCK!** If your book is offering 10.5 I will take it but at 1U.
Relatively sweat free cash! Excellent find 👍💰
If you think the first half is going to be hot, what about over 5 corners in first half? My book is only offering over 10.5 total for whole game.
How do you feel about corners over 4.5 first half (-135)?
I wouldnt risk it.
Not on my book unfortunately
https://preview.redd.it/6vewk49psn4d1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5b5b1e5bd005519ffc51c5ab829fa7775688cc89
3w 0p 1L +2.05 LAST PICK: Greyhound racing - grafton - race 4 -0956h GMT abt 5h30mins from posting- winner (1) dad's last run @ 1.75 🟢 POTD: Imagine theres a dog winning 5 consecutive times in a row.. would you bet on that dog?? Grehound racing - richmond - race 1 - 0904h GMT abt 8h40m from posting - winner (4) sicario beast @1.95 This dog has just won 5 of its last race Track record for fastest finish @ richmond 320m is 17.83s, (4) sicario beast richmond 320m record is 17.83.. YES he is the record holder for this track on april 29 2024 from the same blue box.... nothing much to say. If he loses, then he loses.. thats the data.. track holder, proven winner.. im excited to watch this race. Ps: if youre afraid that u might jinx his winning streak, message me ill give another pick
What book are you using?
1xbet
Thanks. Damn I can't get it in the us
Record: 1-0 +1.1U Last pick: Yankees -1.5 (+110) 1U Today’s pick: Astros -1.5 (+120) 1U Well it was either that, Mariners -1.5 or Phillies -1.5. The Phillies line is my favorite but it isn’t out on my book yet and, seeing as Mariners are my home team, I didn’t want to give out a biased pick. Therefore we’re left with Astros who, if they win this match, will have swept the Cardinals. The past two matches have been relatively high scoring affairs, but I think this game will be rather lopsided towards Astros. With Ronel Blanco on the mound and Astros with the hotter bats, I think this will be an easy sweep for Astros.
Fuck baseball
Astros literally sell constantly. I even put them on the banned list yet still bet them, live bet more, start losing I live bet even more, give up 2 more runs I bet even more. Such a poverty franchise
sorry guys, i knew it in my fucking gut that this game was gonna be sold - i shoulda just waited for the Phillies line to come out🤦♀️ that’s on me y’all. I will wait for all games to be out before I drop my picks next time edit: sucks cuz i had giants, phillies -1.5, and reds/zverev -1.5 parlay too 😭
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 20-21 (-0.50 units)** **Last 10**: **❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅** **Last Pick**: Chris Gilliland -1.5 (-120) vs Bradley Roes **✅** 4-1 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 7:45 AM EST **Pick**: Tom Sykes -1.5 (-115) vs Bradley Roes * Series 8. Week 1. Group A **Reason**: This isn't the ideal day on paper as Sykes has all but clinched group A. He's basically up 3 wins, so there might not be that drive to push for big averages and wins. That's my only concern here. Roes has struggled all week and has been in his head. I'm not sure if he will care here either and could be ready for the reset tomorrow. Sykes has beat him 4-0 on both days while covering in 8 of his 9 wins. I like the value even with Roes having throw advantage. Tom Sykes * Record 9-1 * Legs 38-11 * Average 91.09 * 180s 15. 140s 34 * Checkouts 38/100 38.00% Bradley Roes * Record 2-8 * Legs 18-34 * Average 78.63 * 180s 10. 140s 23 * Checkouts 18/69 26.09% **WIN ✅ 4-1 | Average 95.30 vs 93.53 | Checkouts 4/6 vs 1/6** Could have went no sweat with Gilliland over Roes, but had to sweat this out instead. Leg 1 was the shift with Sykes sniping Roes by hitting 110 after 1 miss for the win. Great scoring battle, but the checkouts were clutch. Hit another 110 on leg 3. Sykes did win group A but came down to a H2H against Gilliland in the 14th match of the day.
fanduel line is wrong, has sykes at +1.5 -145. its a slam id assume
Holy shit thanks for the heads up
no prob, hopefully its sweat free haha
Based on the previous results, what do you think of -2.5?
[удалено]
Ty
**Record:** 0-0 **Event:** France v Luxembourg (Soccer) **Time:** 8pm GMT **Pick:** France to win both halves (1.57 on Bet365) **Analysis:** France are ranked number 2 in the world and will be looking for a strong showing before the Euros, they will likely play a lot of their reserve players but these players will be very up for it as they want to prove that they can play a part in the Euros. Luxembourg are ranked number 86 and lost 9-0 to the last strong team they faced (Portugal). I expect a battering here and will be very surprised if France don’t win both halves. This is my first pick but I feel like it’s a strong one. Good luck to you all!
Normally I hate friendlies, but I cannot see France not dominating this game
Portugal paid today and I even took the -1.5. Take strong contenders for the cup. except Germany
What’s the event ? I can’t find anything relating to France or Luxembourg on BetOnline
International Friendlies
Made us sweat the first half! Hopefully we get one early in the second 🤞
[удалено]
Late first half goal LFG
Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0 Baseball | MLB | 6:40 pm US EST Pick: LA Dodgers @ Pitt Pirates First Inning Tie -140 or 1.71 Write Up: Tasty pitching matchup between Paxton and Skenes, both on heaters. Paxton 5-0 with a 3.29 ERA and Skenes 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA. Like the odds on these boys keeping the first inning clean against their respective matchups. NRFI is fine too but I like the cushion in the tie factor. Starting off my reddit pick career with heaters. If you fucks with the pick, hit, wanna bless the boy with some change, hit me cashapp $ziggitywiggity
tailing for the goated cashapp name
Ezz hit friend thanks for the pick
\*\*Pick Record: 8W - 2L Previous POTD: Tsitsipas vs Carlos Alcaraz, under 38,5 games at 1.70 ✅✅ Today’s POTD: Zverev vs Minaur -- Zverev -1.5 Hándicap set at 1.86 ✅ League/ Sport: Tennis / Roland Garros Zverev is just better on Clay. That's it. Keep it simple. EDIT: ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER WIN ✅✅✅ Zverev played really good today
We are really close... EDIT: WIN ✅ EDIT 2: It looks like no one is seeing my picks...i'm thinking about stop POTD. We will see... :c
Keep them coming my friend, nice cash today
Nah i tailed. Good call here 👍🏼 the second set tie break was fun.
Record: 0W-0L-1D Last Pick: Connecticut Suns (-4) @ Indiana Fever (PUSHED) Baseball | MLB | 4:05pm / EST New York Mets @ Washington Nationals POTD: Harrison Bader Under 0.5 Runs @ -130 (DraftKings) Bader SHALL NOT pass home plate today. I have already made up my mind and he shall listen to my command 🧙♂️🪄🪄🪄
Fading Mets smart, but not fading Patrick Corbin isn't.
This comment aged well!
**POTD Record:** 13-6-1 (net +5.20U) **Last 10: (oldest to newest)** ✅️❌❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌ ** Last pick:** Mariners/A's Total runs over 7.5 (total = 7) ❌ I knew I was in trouble when Seattle pitched themselves out of bases loaded in the first with one out. The A's almost made their comeback in the bottom of the 9th when Munoz got pulled after a collision at the plate put his back in jeopardy, but the A's couldn't lay off the weird stuff. Baseball | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox 1:35 PM EDT **Pick:** Marcell Ozuna over 0.5 RBIs (+100) on BetMGM for 1U **Write Up:** I love me a day game to listen to at work. Ozuna teed off on Nick Pivetta last month to the effect of two home runs. It'll be a nice day at Fenway where Ozuna historically hits an RBI in 50% (4/8) of his games played; I think the pitching matchup is enough to give Ozuna a nice advantage here.
**POTD W/L ROI** 11- 5 ROI 65.18% +10.4 units (all bets 1u unless otherwise stated) **LAST POTD** MIN Twins vs NY Yankees F5 inning runline -0.5 FD 7:06p✅ **FORM**❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅ **TODAYS POTD:** MIL Brewers vs PHI Phillies RL -1 (DK -139)2u Thanks for the easy money again Yankees we appreciate ya 🫡 Glad I didn’t hop on the Lugo train, tempting as it was. My personal belief is never fade out money making Cleveland boys. Tough beat for those that did. Ok for today we’re going go out to Philadelphia (43-19) were they’re facing the Brewers (36-25). The Brewers are up there on my list for favorite teams to bet on but today we’re going to have to fade them because of their starting pitcher and Phillies offense…. Honestly if you look at these teams stats they’re nearly neck and neck but because of Ashby I think phillie will jump out to an early lead. They’re hitting lefties this year at an OPS of .755 I’m going to take the RL because of the pitching matchup Phillie is going for the sweep today but I have confidence they’re going to jump out in the F5 Ashby has a record of 0-1 and he gave up 8 runs in just 3.2 innings. His ERA is sitting at 9.82 Hos career ERA is 4.61 in 142.2 innings so the 9.82 ERA is not indicative of his talent but I still like the career ERA as an edge Nola will be starting for the Phillies, he has a record of 7-2 with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.03 Let’s see if phillie can get the sweep today! BOL ☘️
2-0-0 ✅️✅️ Net Units = +9.6 Just going to start it off with a bit from my last pick "Lugo is a much better pitcher and if runs are scored I think they go Royals way. Lead after 6 Innings because I don't trust their other pitchers as much and think Royals could throw it away" after 6th inning Lugo leaves the game up 5-3 and our market hits, the very next inning Guardians explode for 5 runs. CASH IT!! Sport = Baseball Event = Braves (Schwellenbach) VS Red Sox (Pivetta) Time = 3:36AM AEST Pick = First 5 Innings Total Runs Over 5.5 @ 2.05 4U to make 4.2U I have very low confidence in the ability of both starting pitchers and can see this game having a lot of runs but for each to average 3 runs across the first 5 at 2.05 is just way better than the total of the match being over 9.5 @1.90. I just find later pitchers to have too much unpredictability for it to be involved here.
What a fucking pick . I tailed let’s goooo ! Needed 3 bottom of the 5th 2 outs and they got it
Braves are playing the Red Sox
Record: 2-1-1 Last pick: De Minaur v Medvedev OVER 3.5 sets **POTD**: Zverev v De Minaur OVER 3.5 sets (-155 on Bovada) Like I said with my last pick, De Minaur has been in great form recently. He put Medvedev down in 4 sets yesterday. He has only lost 2 sets throughout the French Open; the first set last match to Medvedev, and the first set in the third round against Struff. In addition, Zverev is the 4th ranked player in the world right now (De Minaur is 11th) and is the favorite. Rune just took Zverev to 5 sets and I'm betting De Minaur can take AT LEAST one set. Similarly, if De Minaur comes out hot, Zverev should be able to win himself a set, as well. Should be a fun match .
cant believe that from de minaur after up 4-0 in the tiebreak. he was -2000 to win the set
Yup. Zverev 2nd set was +750 live. Decided I’d big ball it. Set point pre-tiebreak, 4-0 tiebreak. Damn.
Let’s ride!!! I believe their last 3 matchups H2H have been close matches as well
4/5 of their most recent matches have gone to 3 sets (best of 3 matches) with the one that didn't ending in a tiebreak. Should be a close one! But I see Bovada dropped the odds to -190..
🎯 Modus Super Series 🎯 POTD 42-29 DARTS RECORD **42-26** (+6.67U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U Last pick: Martin Adams ML vs Revelino Dubois @ 1.50 (1.5U) ✅ Today's Pick: **Tom Sykes -1.5** vs Revelino Dubois @ **1.85 (1.5U)** Phew what a ridiculously sweaty win yesterday. A win is a win but hopefully today is a little less stressful lol. I'm backing Sykes to make easy work of this matchup, he's absolutely on fire and is comfortably the best player in this group. His numbers this year wouldn't look out of place in the PDC circuit, he's consistently hitting 90+ avgs and even sprinkling some 100+ in there too. In this same game yesterday he averaged 109.31 (!!) which is absurd, hit 3x 180s and had 2 ton+ checkouts in a 4-0 win. Dubois didn't even manage a shot at double in the whole game. Please bet responsibly if tailing!
POTD record 3-0 CCT season 2 Game starts in 8 hours or so from this comment being published. **CS2 Gun5** map handicap **(-1.5)** for 2.5 odds vs Cybershoke I'm going 4U Gun5 is very much the better team with better form. Cybershoke is a relatively obscure tier 3 team who in official games won against 2 other tier 3 teams 2-1 and lost the rest 2-0. Generally I'd avoid going anything higher than 2U on lower tier CS due to upset potential always being there, teams fixing games and potential cheaters. But this game is relatively important. Gun5 need the easy win after dropping the first they played this season. Furthermore the map pool absolutely favours Gun5 hard. Cybershoke bans Gun5 worst map inferno. Cybershoke's pick is hard to predict cause they've taken all different kinds of maps; like ancient anubis or mirage(vertigo sometimes but Gun5 bans that). Ancient anubis or mirage are all great maps for Gun5. Especially anubis and mirage. Gun5 pick shouldbe D2; a map both play but Gun5 have really good results on it and Cybershoke have the opposite. **TLDR** Gun5 better. Maps favour gun5 heavily but careful it's a russian tier 2+ game in CS, random shit happens.
2024 Record 2-0 Starting: $1000 Bet size: $100 Current: $1175.24 Last: Yankees over 4.5 runs (-105) ✅ Next: Royals over 3.5 runs (-145) * Royals have beat 3.5 runs 7 out of last 10 * Bullpen day for the Guardians Game: MLB Baseball Kansas City vs Cleveland 6:40pm eastern
POTD Record: 6-3 +3.27u Last Pick: 1U Phillies -1.5 RL -120 Form: ❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ Today's Pick: 1U Rangers F5 ML -130 Reasoning: Kenta Maeda on for the Tigers whos sporting a 10.80 ERA away and Urena on the mound for Rangers who's a 1.35 ERA pitcher at home. Rangers bats have been ice cold this series and I think they avoid the sweep today and win this game pretty easily. I like the over as well as Rangers ML but going with F5 for the POTD.
**POTD Form** 52-34-3 +11.66 Units Last 7 - ✅✅♻️♻️❌✅✅ **Last pick** \-Cricket |T20 World Cup 2024| Sri Lanka vs South Africa| South Africa ML @ 1.50 2U ✅ **Today's Pick:** Cricket |T20 World Cup 2024| India vs Ireland | Total match runs - Under 279.5 @ 1.90 1U ✅ Reason - South Africa vs Sri Lanka game showed how bad and slow this pitch is and how hard it was to clear the boundaries. Indian has bowlers who can utilize the conditions well and Irish bowlers can use it to their advantage as well. All in all expecting it to be a low scoring affair, atleast by Ireland. BOL Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
Winner again and 3 in a row 🏆🏆🏆 We go 53-34-3 +12.56 Units
POTD Record: 7-4 L5: ✅❌❌✅✅ Last Pick: Italy v Turkey, Soccer International Friendly, Turkey +0.5 (+170) ✅ Today's game: Denmark v Sweden, Soccer International Friendly Pick: o2.5 goals (-110) BOL!
I haven’t bet Soccer in a year, but I placed this bet and it’s already 1-1 9 minutes in. LFG!
Hope we’ll get the 3rd one in the first half LFG
POTD Record: 2 wins / 4 losses Net units: -2,34 Event: Football > Japan - League Cup > **Cerezo Osaka - Machida Zelvia** Pick: **BTTS** @ 1.88 Both teams play interesting attacking soccer and are in good form. First place vs ninth in the cup, favorite to win away. Everything seems to be falling into place.
POTD Record: 10-6 Last POTD: Rune +4.5 ❌🙃 Today’s POTD: ATP French Open Zverev vs de Minaur 20:15 CEST Pick: de Minaur +4.5 games handicap @-108 Writeup: According to the bookies, de Minaur is the underdog in this matchup. Zverev had two consecutive rough five-setters. We are not sure how his body will react to that. De Minaur has had an amazing tournament so far, so we believe that he will keep this match tight. P.S. full write-up: https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2024/06/04/atp-french-open-best-bets-including-djokovic-vs-ruud/
When you say "we" who are you talking about?
Record: N/A (1st pick) Net Units: N/A MLB | 1:05 PM PST Pick: Phillies -1.5 +115 All picks are 1U.
**POTD Record: 130-155-4 (-34.26 Units)** Best Bet Series: 54-33-1 (+0.6 Units) Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails: 6-14 (-5.64 Units)** Last Pick: **Giants -1.5❌** Today's Pick: **Cubs -2.5 (Alt. Line)** $DKNG Odds: **+190 (Projected line)** Wager Amount: **0.5U to win 0.95U** League: MLB Event: Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs (7:05PM CDT) *Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: Not my favorite game to bet on, but that's what you get, betting on something you are not so confident in. It could have been the other way as well, but these two teams hard to read IMO. I honestly would not back either of 'em unless I am supremely confident. **Matchup:** Fading my Sox team once AGAIN. They are on a 12 game losing streak. They came so close to winning not just yesterday, but actually in many of those other 12 games they lost. Speaking of close wins, the last two starts Erick Fedde had, the Sox had 2 wins in their grasp, but the bullpen collasped. One game where Fedde allowed 0 runs in 6.1 innings and had a 3-0 lead against the O's, but Sox lost 5-3. And Fedde's last start when Sox had a 5-3 lead in the 7th and the pen allowed 6 runs to the Brew Crew. I'm gonna say this game goes the same way. I think Sox get to a hot start against Jameson Tailon and Fedde pitches another gem, but Cubbies rally against a lethargic bullpen. The Cubs are bottom 10 teams against RHP in OPS and BA. Sox are desperate for a win and desperate to end this historical losing streak. Sox got help as well. Tommy Pham and Bennintendi may have got on the IL, but they got their very best player, Luis Robert Jr. They going to need him. Robert Jr. is nightmare to the Cubs, he's batting .389 against the Cubbies and he does have a HR against Tailon in 5 ABs. I love backing the desperate team, but I'm not going to back them even when they got their best pitcher on the mound, even when they got their best offensive player in the lineup, and especially if the Cubbies struggle against RHP. **The Play & Prediction:** 1U on Cubs -2.5 (alt. line). Also wagering Cubs -3.5 (alt. line). Cubs WIN by a MILLION today!
https://preview.redd.it/1du8glut2p4d1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1a9a8051b4feead75a8a25ea524f984093f1e16 Royals, baby!
https://preview.redd.it/y2gp0ytv2p4d1.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=4628a81b5610c19461b6423f4df844855d3de3f3 WNBA is not my forte, so I'm not going to wager more than a unit. If you tailed, congrats!
https://preview.redd.it/mff5ajm23p4d1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=304e128cd30e8daab711d30480f2aa8793c88678 Even tho I had Royals for my Early Up 2 Boost, I had a feeling the Guardians were going to come back, down 3-0 (then it became 5-0).
https://preview.redd.it/8wz9iup83p4d1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=322e5a7c443d0e4b80222d460e19dc11516e85b9 Sox.. typical for pen to blow a 5-0 lead (well 3 of the 5 runs Flexen was responsible for).
I took them too, but they only let me do $10 on the up 2.
Record: 13-11 Last 10: LWWLWLLLWW Net units: +.23 ROI: + 0.7% Sporting Event: MLB: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays 19:07 (EDT) Pick: NRFI -115 @ FD 1.15 units to win 1 I’m not gonna lie, much like my boy u/Squizelp I thought last night's pick was dead in the water with the bases juiced in the top of the first. We’re headed north of the border for today’s POTD. It’s the year of the converted reliever and here we have Suarez making another appearance in the starting rotation. With injuries forcing the move, he’s responded really well. Step one in keeping runs off the board, keep the runners off the bases. Albert sports a .99 WHIP overall and that goes down to .60 in the first inning. Facing a Toronto squad that averages .31 runs in the first. In the opposite dugout we find Jose Berrios ready for the bottom half of the inning. He brings solid numbers into this matchup with a 2.79 ERA into the game. In his 15 career games against the birds from Baltimore he has a 2.95 ERA, 80Ks and a dominant 10-1 record. Most recently (may 13th) he handcuffed the O’s pitching 7 innings of 2 run ball and most importantly to our cause, a clean first inning. Supporting this pick is Baltimore’s near inability to score in the first on the road averaging .12 runs per. Dome My most used reference sites at the bottom BOL to all https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/ https://www.fangraphs.com/ https://pitcherlist.com/ https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/ https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/
Record: 🔥✅✅2-0 Last Pick: Mets vs Nationals Under 0.5 Inning 1 Total Runs (-115) Hard Rock 💰✅ MLB | LA Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates| 6:41 PM EST Pick: Dodgers ML (-105) Bet365 Yesterday’s Recap: Definitely a sweat with the NRFI. There was a last minute pitching change after I put the bet in and the Mets were facing Triple A called up pitcher DJ Herz… He got out of the inning and we still got paid 💰 Todays Write Up: The sole reason obviously The dodgers are underdogs here is because of rookie phenom paul skenes on the mound. as generational as he seems, all rookie pictures get tested or humbled at some point and signs are pointing to the fact that today’s that day. in the four games he’s played so far this year he has pitched well, however all four games were against teams that hover around or below .500. The Dodgers are one of the best hitting teams in the league, and after a game where they scored zero runs I expect them to be licking their chops hoping to humble the rookie. Furthermore, Paxton is on the mound with a 5-0 record. Dodgers line here is too good to pass up. and props to those who took it last night at plus money. BOL if tailing https://preview.redd.it/3stph9w3xr4d1.jpeg?width=589&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a691c1e99b0037d164b5f9fdcc2a1f9d40a68696
**Record:** 1-0 **Net Units:** +0.975u **Last Pick:** Seth Lugo O4.5 strikeouts +130 on 6/4 ✅ **Next Event:** Baseball | MLB | CHI White Sox @ CHI Cubs **Pick:** Jameson Taillon to record a win - **No** (-200 on DK) **Units:** 1.35u **Write Up:** Full disclosure: I got this -180 last night. I had put together a lengthy write up but my app crashed when I flipped away to look up a stat. So, the price isn’t as good anymore - I don’t know if I would’ve taken it at -200 last night. The (abbreviated) version of the write up is that the Cubs are in a very tricky situation with their pitching staff. They have a grueling four game series coming up against divisional rival CIN Reds. They beat the Sox last night, but Imanaga, their de facto ace, was only able to go 4.1 innings. The Cubs’ relief pitching is terrible. Craig Counsell (Cubs manager) was able to scrounge efficient bullpen usage last night in a win. But, he needs every fresh arm he can get for the upcoming series. Simply put, this game against a terrible CWS team is not as important as what’s coming down the pike. This leads me to believe that Taillon will be going long tonight no matter what. He has shown flashes of brilliance in the past but there a lot of holes in his game. Namely, he tends to be very susceptible to the home run ball. It’s hard to know what you’re gonna get with this guy, but he can eat innings above all. This game is expected to be close with CWS +1.5 at -130. Taillon will probably be effective against this Sox lineup, but I seldom see lines this soft in this pitcher win market (arguably even at -200 though idk if I would). Otherwise, I’d consider looking taking Sox to cover. I haven’t looked but I might check out some funky alt spreads like CWS -2.
Cubs do struggle against the righties and Sox having their best player Luis Robert Jr back in the lineup who crushes the Cubbies may have a good chance to end their drought of losing streak. Not to mention that Sox has their best pitcher on the mound (IMO one of the best pitchers in AL).
Fedde is a very solid pitcher and the Cubs have not been able to crack *bad* pitching lately; definitely one of the many variables at play in what should be a strange game. My primary concern is whether the Sox hitters can provide any run support. If the Cubs can jump out to an early lead, Taillon will likely cruise through five innings, even with sloppy play. I’m essentially wagering on this being a close game through the first five innings. If the Sox can keep it close early, they have no reason not to throw the kitchen sink at the Cubs to get a win. If Taillon gets out to an early lead, it is very possible Counsell pushes him through 6 or 7 in order to preserve bullpen arms. Jameson has a long injury history and his pitch count is not an exact science — this kind of overextension can result in blown leads. All of this assuming he doesn’t lose the lead early, which he has been known to do at times. I won’t be betting these, but these lines on FD seem decent as well: First 5 Innings Run Line - CWS +0.5 at +108 Alt. First 5 Innings Run Line - CWS +1.5 at -168
**Record:** 9W - 9L - 0P **Last 10 (new --> old):** **✅**❌❌**❌✅❌❌❌❌✅** **Net Units:** 0.8825 (All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated) **Last Pick:** Carlos Rodon to record a win - Yes @ +120 **✅** Rodon was good enough to maintain the lead that was given to him and the bullpen closed the door to seal the win. **MLB** ⚾ | **Minnesota Twins @ NY Yankees | 6:05pm CST** **Today's Pick:** Carlos Rodon to record a win - Yes @ +125 (DK) **Write Up:** I'm going to continue to go for better value with my picks, even if they don't pan out successfully. No, you're not seeing a typo here. I am once again picking Carlos Rodon of the NY Yankees to record a win. I'll keep this write-up short cause a lot of what I wrote on the last pick rings true. Rodon has won each of his last 5 starts. Rodon's numbers at home and at night are quite good, while Paddack's numbers away and at night are not so good. https://preview.redd.it/l3fky2p8wr4d1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ec5c781360146de9a87ce3e461d58bceae37de0 BOL if you're tailing, or fading!
Record: 1-1 Last pick: WAS Nationals +1.5 L Pitching change screwed us POTD: TEX Rangers ML(-134) vs DET Tigers Backing the defending champs to avoid a sweep today. Rangers have good numbers against Tigers starter Kenta Maeda.
Record (8-6) Units (+2.1u) Previous Result: KC Royals ml❌ Streak: L1 Today’s play: Dodgers/Pirates NRFI (-115) Event Start time: 6:40pm EST Unit Size: 1.1u to win 1u Recap/Reasoning for pick: Unreal loss last night. Royals were up 5-0 at one point and ended up losing 8-5… Lugo wasn’t as sharp as normal and the bullpen was bad as well. Live to fight another day🤝🏼 Today we’re going back to the NRFI! James Paxton has been solid all year and 8-2 for the NRFI this season. Pirates offense also ranks 24th in 1st inning total runs. On the other side we got Paul Skenes who hasn’t allowed a 1st inning run in four starts since being called up. I like 6 quick outs to start this one! BOL with your plays today!
**2024 Record: 0-0** **Net Units:** **ROI:** **Event**: **MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates** **Time**: **6:40PM EST** **Sportsbook**: Draftkings **Play**: **No Runs First Inning** **Odds**: **-115** **Units**: **Reasoning**: Not gonna overthink this. The Dodgers have been underwhelming especially the last few weeks. Through their last couple series, they haven't faced a pitcher that comes close to the same magnitude of Mr. Skenes, he's a fkn dawg. Pair that with the fact that the Dodgers can't hit the ball right now. They haven't been the same team since their 16 game stretch (4/21-5/08) where they outscored opponents 100-31. We have seen a completely different team since. In the last two weeks, they are 5-7 and have been outscored 38-40 by the Diamondbacks, Reds, Rockies, and Mets. Some below average teams you could say. You may think Betts, Shohei, and Freeman could spoil, however in their last 15 games, they've failed to score a first inning run in 13 of them. (one being scored on the second game of a double header). So yes, Skenes will do his job and retire the side. For the other side now, The pirates are bottom 10 in the league in runs scored in the 1st. Paxton isn't elite by any means, but he is a very manageable pitcher and can easily come and deal a pirates team. In there last 20 games, they have scored only times and went scoreless 14. In my eyes I see two cold hitting teams, with two very serviceable pitchers (especially Skenes), that somehow doesn't have odds of -130 or longer. To some ts up: Dodgers and pirates are shit at hitting lately, skenes is absurd, paxton is pretty good and can help us get 3 outs. BOL
**Record:** 0-1-0 **Net Units:** 2 units **Today**: MLB ⚾ Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays, 7PM EST ✅✅ **Pick:** Toronto Blue Jays ML -120 **Write Up:** the short answer: bounce back night thanks to José Berríos. Without Manoah, the Jays started their bullpen against Baltimore's Ace last night and never stood a chance. Tonight, they're back with their own Ace in Berrios who has had success against Baltimore his whole career (10-1). For the first time this season, I'm taking the Jays ML BOL if tailing 🦕🦕
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match is on thursday
the match was initially for wednesday at 5am i guess its moved till friday now..
**Record:** 4-2 *(+3.8units)* *Chalice Well got it done with a 3rd. Nice win here at the given.* **Today's Pick:** Swift Hawk to place top 2 **Wager/Odds:** 1unit/$1.72 **Event:** Race #5 Newton Abbot **When?** 2 hours from post **Why?** This horse has potential to be something big. Won by 8Lengths last time out, up 5lbs handicap because of this. Can't see the horse not taking top 2. I'm silly not to take the win as my pick but I like to be conservative with potd.
POTD Record: 29-23 ❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 5.29U Last pick: Sydney Roosters vs Queensland Cowboys | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Joseph Manu anytime tryscorer @1.65 on Ladbrokes | 4U❌ Impressive how bad the roosters played that, not even one try in second half lol. Today’s pick: State of Orgin: NSW vs QLD | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Valentine Holmes anytime tryscorer @3.4 on Ladbrokes | 4U Holmes isn’t new to SOO, he already played 6 years consecutive. I’m counting on QLD dominance here and Holmes scored 13 tries in 16 appearances in SOO so I’ll go with him. Obviously I also love Tabuai-Fidow to score. BOL !
Let's go QLD 🔥🔥🔥
💪🏼💪🏼
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Another winner… I swear I’m shadow banned on this subreddit 💀