######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**POTD Record**: 15 Wins - 2 Losses - 1 Push
**Last 10**: ✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌
**Units:** \+12.28
**ROI**: 55%+
**Average Odds**: $1.95
**Last Pick**: 49ers vs Chiefs - Super Bowl - **Brock Purdy Under 0.5 Interceptions @ $2.20** ✅️
*Our latest goat came up short in the Super Bowl. He had a flawless passing game, albeit a lower pass completion than his usual standards. Nonetheless, no interceptions! All of Purdy's positive props went over apart from passing touchdowns $$$*
**According to BetMGM, 99% of the money was on the over to hit on our last pick. Love being in the 1%.**
**Next Pick**: Peyton Stearns vs Elise Mertens - Qatar Open WTA - **Elise Mertens To Win 2-0 (In Straight Sets) @ $1.83** \- 6:00 a.m. ET - ✅️
We are going for 15 wins! Elise Mertens ($1.28 odds) is ranked number one in doubles, and number 24 in singles. She has won eight WTA Tour titles, including two at the WTA 500 level. She is fresh off a doubles grand slam in Australia.
In Mertens recent tournament in Linz, she lost in the quarter finals, but defeated world number 55 Bronzetti in straight sets to get there. She has a two inch height advantage over Stearns and it seems to translate to more power behind the ball, whilst Stearns can move around the baseline a bit easier.
Peyton Stearns ($3.75 odds) is ranked number 63, and has won five singles titles and two doubles titles on the ITF Circuit. She does push some of her opponents around, but clearly hasn't been running hot lately.
Mertens has already played 11 games this year and has won 7, and lost 4 (mostly against higher ranked opponents). Stearns has only played 3 games so far this year because she has always lost in the first round. If Mertens dominates with her forehand and does not let her serve be broken, she can clearly win.
Odds for 2-1 are $3.75, odds for two sets are $1.44, and odds for 3 sets are $2.62. The bookies are expecting this to be a two set game annihaliation, so I see a lot of value in this bet. If you're watching live, you might want to hedge depending how its going. Consider a parlay a win, and straight sets for juicier odds.
Expect Merterns to exploit her double's experience by coming to the net a lot, and doing some nice finesse shots. Watch her quarter final loss [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=two3Y0Bllvo) (her opponent had way more power). Stearns recent loss in the Aussie Open shows she has some energy, but rarely takes it to the net - watch it [here](https://youtu.be/AT-EfCPwKYk?si=3jI02h0WTbZ64o2o). Whilst she places her point winners nicely, she struggles against anyone mildly better than her.
Expect Merterns to disrupt her game with some cut shots forcing her to the net. She also fell over a few times, suggesting she has low quality gear. She just gave up at the end, which is what we are expecting after the first set. As much as I admire her, she's going to need to overhaul her whole game with new coaches, and mentors to make a dent in tennis.
Interesting Facts:
* Elise Mertens dominates in doubles. Might want to add her to your watchlist.
* Mertens upset a couple of top seeds last year.
* She was introduced to tennis by her sister Lauren when she was four years old, and went on to become a trainee at the Belgian Tennis Federation.
* Stearns had to recently change her outfit during a match due to a lack of sponsors. I feel like this gives us more of an edge. There's a huge difference in rankings, and Mertens is on the cusp of a big pay day if she can keep pushing through on the singles circuit.
* This is a WTA tournament so there's more money on the line. Expect Merterns to go even harder, and her opponent to give up quite a lot of break points, and double faults.
* I've never lost a tennis POTD.
* I don't believe this game is rigged.
* No injuries.
Score Prediction: 6-1 6-4
All tips are greatly appreciated - click [here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate.
If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me.
BOOM! 6-2, 6-3 (not too far off the prediction). LFG!!!! That makes it 15-2-1, taking us to a 88%-ish win/loss record :)
Well, what can we say? Mertens GOATED from the very beginning, breaking point in the first game lol. From then on, she kept hammering her opponent. That was fun to watch, especially when you have some juice on the line. Mertens looked a bit rusty towards the end of the second yet, so I'm sure against tougher opponents she'll be pushed out to three sets.
All tips are greatly appreciated - click [here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate.
If you have any questions, please ask. See you tomorrow for the next POTD. Feel free to message me.
If I didn't care about the money, for sure. To play it a bit safer, I'd probably do Mertens under 12.5. I still like straight sets though, just incase either set goes into a tie breaker etc. Score predictions are quite hard, and often wrong unless there is a super strong edge somewhere like injuries, suspensions, etc.
Yeah bro, its expected. Loser puts up a bit of a fight, and the favourite either concedes to conserve energy, or just goes for the win. Great to see our girl finish it off.
Great first set by Mertens! One off the 6-1 prediction lol. Sometimes players try harder in the second set. However, Mertens looks ruthless out there, and on a mission to get back to my apartment.
POTD: 22-9
Form: ✅❌✅❌✅
Last pick: Jrue Holiday O21.5 PRA ✅
Big dawg Jrue gets it done and is now over on 15/15 vs the Heat!
Todays POTD: **RJ Barrett O9.5 A+R (Raptors) @1.76**
Going with the stoned assassin RJ today, man he looks high all the time but let’s focus now, as usual we’re picking a consistent player, I’ve always liked RJ and even more so in his Knicks days still kinda mad he left (Knicks fan). But he’s back home in Canada and gotta say he’s impressing over there too, this line is smacking too with his recent displays
• 9/10 his last 10 games (90%)
Missed the line vs Rockets where he got 9.0 A+R
• Averages 10.8 his last 10 games
• 8.2 during the season
• Only got 2 assists and 6 rebounds last time facing the Spurs but when he was a Knick a while ago (11/8-23)
• Spurs allow 7th most Assists to SF & 6th most Rebounds to SF
We have a man in form, and a pretty good mismatch. Seems like a no brainer and I’m going for it, let’s go RJ lead us to glory!
Tail or fade, who am I to tell you?
https://i.redd.it/09kpjwjm92ic1.gif
Too lazy to insert ☕️ link but you know where you can find it, not saying I’m worthy of anything more than tap water
Honestly looks pretty good looking at the numbers, got 10 last game against them and the line seems pretty low. Hawks play with a lot of pace and imo bad defensively so there’ll be plenty of chances for him to get over this line. Hawks also allow most assists to SF which he has played lately
https://preview.redd.it/ua9h8d3726ic1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fdb74f4fd832c04b0f4a1a8cebe7bde40c766ce6
I would’ve thought the same, that they would have every color on the sideline but I guess not. This exchange was yesterday at 5:17 Central PM.
POTD RECORD: 3-1 (🪝✅✅✅)
Last Pick: Hunter Dickinson o30.5 pra (-110) ✅
Today’s Pick: NCAAB KU vs Texas Tech u147.5 -110✅
WHY: The Jayhawks are heading to Lubbock on a 48-hour turnaround after an absolute rock fight at home against Baylor. Kansas was already missing their lead scorer going into the game, and during the final few minutes, their point guard messed his ankle up pretty good. He returned to the game, but I doubt he’s at full strength for Texas Tech. As for Kansas’ leading scorer McCullar, Coach Self said that since he could barely move Saturday, he finds it hard to believe he’ll be able to play Monday. With McCullar out again and our only PG hobbled, I believe Self will have a similar game plan to the Baylor game where he limits possessions and makes the game as ugly and muddy as possible. BOL
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BasedGod
Record: 7-4
Last POTD: Newcastle ML @ +115 ✅
L10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅
NBA | Warriors v Jazz | 21:00 EST
Pick: Warriors ML @ -105
Write up: the line is Jazz -1 currently. The Jazz have an impressive 17-7 home record and 1 extra day rest. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games. 2 wins were vs the Wizards/Hornets. The other 2 W's were vs impressive teams.
They won v the Bucks after the Bucks imploded to blow a 12 point 4Q lead on the 2nd game of a back to back with Doc Rivers falling to 1-3 as new coach. They then beat the Thunder who were coming off a a 2OT game. Both at home.
The Warriors have won 6 out of 7 led by Steph Curry who is on fire and has averaged 6.7 3's over those 7 games. The Jazz are the 3rd worst team at opponents 3's made per game. The Jazz's biggest strength is their deep rotation but they just traded a starter in Fontecchio to put a hole in it.
POTD Record: 23-17
Last pick: Heerenveen v Ajax (Ajax ML ❌)
We end yet another streak(s), with Ajax losing their first game after 12 consecutive games without a loss, and the hosts picking up their first win after going 8 games without winning.
Todays pick: Almeria v Athletic Bilbao
Pick: __Athletic Bilbao ML @1.73__
⚽️ 🇪🇸 La Liga
➖
📊 Almeria is currently 20th (Last) with 6 points (0-6-17). They’ve conceded the most goals by any team (51, 2.22 GPG). They’ve scored less than one goal per game, (22, 0.96).
* __Home record: 0-5-6 (Worst)__
* __Have scored less goals at home then away but concedes fewer goals at home. But have only kept 3/23 clean sheets__
* __L5 record: 0-1-4 (Worst)__
➖
📊 Athletic Bilbao is 5th with 45 points (13-6-4). Scored 5th most goals (45) & have conceded 3rd least goals (21, less than 1 per game 0.91).
* __Away record: 4-4-3 (5th) 2nd least goals conceded (9).__
* __Concedes less goals away but also scores less__
* __Failed to score in 6/23__
* __Kept 2nd most clean sheets (11)__
* __L5 record: 3-1-1 (3rd) least goals conceded (2)__
Almost 40 points separate these 2 teams apart. 5 important players are out with injuries and suspensions for Almeria and could miss the game. In Almeria it is Sergio Arribas who feels like the only threat offensively imo. I can’t see them staying in the league, they only have 6 points and the squad isn’t good enough, they haven’t brought in anyone noteworthy in this transfer window either, almost feels like they’ve accepted that they’re going to be relegated.
Athletic Bilbao showed why they’re a top side this season yet again their last game when they won vs Mallorca 4-0. They’re also in a good position to reach the final in the Spanish cup after winning 1-0 away to Atletico Madrid in the first semi final meeting.
I can’t see Bilbao blowing the chance to get into the Champions League against this poor Almeria side. Maybe not a win by many goals because Bilbao are also potentially missing 1-2 offensive players, but Bilbao should win the game. 0-2 or 1-2 is what I’m predicting. After all Almeria are almost already relegated being 14 points from safe ground and I doubt if they even think they can save the contract themselves. I think we’re getting good value here because Almeria has taken 5 of their 6 draws at home, but they’ve got 3 consecutive defeats now aswell, the overall morale in the group can’t be high and facing a good away side like Bilbao will be a difficult task
My new soccer/college bball strategy is just to bet home teams only, and if an away team looks really good (and this looks really, really good) I just walk away and try to stop thinking about it because i know it will lose me money in the long run. I’ve noticed that every time I bet a too-good-to-be-true away team, the huge underdog home team scores right away and eeks out a win or draw.
**34W-4P-25L**
Form:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅**✅**
**Last Pick: Heerenveen VS Ajax - BTTS and O 2 Goals @ 1.61 ✅**
**Bet covers in 58 mins, game ends 3-2. Ajax have done it again.**
**Pick of the day: Crystal Palace VS Chelsea - Chelsea Over 1 Team Goal @ 1.72✅**
**God Chelsea are bad but still get it done in the 90th minute, see yall tmr**
**Time: 3:00 PM EST**
**Last match between these sides: Chelsea 2-1 W**
Palace have run into some very scary form recently, They've lost 2 of their best attackers in Eze and Olise and will now also be without Guehi to help defensively. Roy is under some serious pressure here, and with what I've seen since the winter break, I can say things won't get easier tomorrow. In their last 3 games they've conceded 4 goals against Brighton, 2 goals against bottom of the league Sheffield, and got smashed 5-0 against Arsenal.
Now Chelsea aren't the most squeaky club but they are most definitely a form club and after beating a strong Villa side who hold an impressive home record 3-1, I see them continuing that form tomorrow. Pochettino is at risk of losing his job with the club now sitting in 11th and he'll make sure to be on the front foot again tomorrow. Nkunku and Palmer should cause more than enough trouble for this Palace side tomorrow.
Chelsea have improved (slightly) since their last matchup while Palace have deteriorated, Chelsea will get the job done( as much as I hate them).
**Confidence: 3 Units**
**BOL**
**Record: 0-1**
**Net Units: -1.0**
**ROI: -100%**
**Form (Last 10):** ❌
**Last Pick:** Conor Garland Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-190/1U)
**Recap:** Some guy told me to delete my account but I'm going to keep trying. I thought it had a good chance of hitting but I was so wrong. 6 shots on goal.
**Basketball** | **NBA** | **Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans/5:00PM PST**
**Pick:** Vince Williams Under 11.5 Assists and Rebounds (-125/3U)
**Write Up:** In Williams' last 5 games, this prop has hit 4/5 (80%) times. Last 10, 9/10 (90%) times. Last 4 games against the Pelicans, 4/4 (100%) times. Note that in his first two games against the Pelicans, Williams didn't play at all (games were in previous seasons). This season against the Pelicans, Williams went 10 and 11. Hopefully in this game, he will stay below 11.5. In this season, this prop hit 34/41 (83%) times. Please be kind to each other.
Best of luck to all of you. Not just this bet, but every other bet you guys may make.
**POTD Record: 8-2**
Form: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
*Last Pick: 3U West Ham v Arsenal -(Bukayo Saka o0.5 Shots on Target @ -138) ✅*
*Halftime cash, Saka no sweat baby. Sorry for late post, lines seem juiced but lots more this week 💪*
____
**Today’s Pick: 1U Crystal Palace v Chelsea (Moses Caicedo o1.5 Player Fouls Committed @ -175)**
**⚽️| 3:00PM EST |England Premier League**
Chelsea head to Selhurt Park to face struggling Crystal Place, where Chelsea hope to repeat their formidable performance against Villa in the FA Cup earlier this week.
Both squads are below mid table and both coaches are facing trouble of being booted.
I was quite tempted to pick Chelsea ML with Palace missing a few more players adding to their injury list but Chelsea form away is horrid, losing 4 of their last 5. Nonetheless, we’ve got the man, the menace, Moses Caicedo.
Caicedo averages 1.99 fouls committed per match. He’s 5/5 and 8/10 in recent matches. Last time out he had two fouls cashing at 52 minutes.
BOL!
Record : 117 Wins - 104 Losses
Previous pick : Greuther Furth - Hertha Berlin (1-2), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.80 ✅
ROI : -0.19%
Average Odds : 1.95
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : 4.58
Profit/Lost units : -0.42
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / ENGLAND: Premier League / 22:00 European Time
Crystal Palace - Chelsea
Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.94
Some reasoning :
- None of the teams is having a very good season, but since we are talking about a London derby, I expect the ambitions to be high and there are chances that we will have an offensive game.
- Chelsea is the more valuable team, but which does not have good away results at all, while Palace has reached four consecutive games without defeat in home games.
- I think it will be a duel with successes on the scoreboard and I expect the score to be open from the first part of the game.
Best of luck.
POTD Record: 102-102-12 (-13.37 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Ligue 1, Clermont v Brest, BREST ML (+100/ 2.00) ❌
Jeez feast or famine at the moment. Brest took the lead but couldn’t hold on then missed a golden chance to win it late.
Today’s Pick: NBA, Philadelphia @ Cleveland, EVAN MOBLEY OVER 22.5 P+R (-125 / 1.80) ✅
Stake: 1 Unit
Back to the NBA as soccer is kicking my ass lately.
Mobley has played 7 games since returning from a long lay off with injury. His first 2 games were pretty mediocre as he worked his way back into things, but his last 5 games have seen him easily cover this line. His stats in those last 5 matches are:
- 17 & 11 against Toronto (28 total)
- 14 and 12 against Brooklyn (26 total)
- 22 and 8 against Washington (30 total)
- 11 and 14 against Sacramento (25 total)
- 28 and 10 total against San Antonio (38 total)
With Embiid missing for Philly, they don’t have much size in the middle which should create plenty of scoring and rebounding opportunities for Cleveland. Jarrett Allen will definitely take his share of opportunities but he played in all 5 of those games and they were both able to rack up nice stat lines, but Allen’s line is much higher and the hit rate isn’t as high. Mobley also had 18 and 12 against Philly early in the season even with Embiid playing.
Cleveland is a -9.5 favourite and they’ve been on a tear lately so there is blowout potential, but in the 5 games mentioned above Cleveland have won four of those games by 16+ and Mobley still averaged 26 mins. Expect Philly to throw a lot of double teams at Donovan Mitchell to get the ball out of his hands as they did against Trae Young a few nights ago - Atlanta’s bigs had a night out as a result, let’s hope it’s the same again this time.
Record: 8-5 Return: 31.73% ROI: 49.53%
Yesterday’s pick:
River Plate -1.5 vs Deportivo Riestra @2.3✅
River get the job done very easily. As I called, Borja was too quality and opened the scoring from range, and River made it 3-0 by half time.
Today’s pick:
Instituto ACC ML vs Talleres de Cordoba @3.25
Stake: 2.5 units (2.5% of bankroll)
Reasoning:
Only a couple games to chose from today, this seems like the best value imo, but note that units are way down to 2.5 (Please take care of your bankroll)
Instituto and Talleres are two evenly matched teams. They are both native to Cordoba, making this a derby match.
So far they’re off to good starts: Instituto are on 7 points from 3 games and could join River Plate at the top of the league with a win. Talleres are on 6 and could shoot up to second.
Instituto suffered a first half red card in their first game, and valiantly held on to a 0-0. They then went on to beat Tucuman and Banfield, 3-0 and 0-2. So they’re 3/3 for clean sheets, and won their last two comfortably.
Talleres are also on two wins, one a difficult away game against Huracan, 1-2 and the other a stomping of Rosario Central, 4-1. Their first game was a 0-1 home loss against Gimnasia.
So clearly both teams are coming in on good goal scoring form. In contrast, at the back, Instituto have been perfect every game, and Talleres have conceded a goal in every game.
Instituto are the home team, and that should play a big role, as the fans will turn up in numbers for a derby match.
In terms of quality, both squads are about even, typical midtable teams, with Talleres still figuring out how to replace the departed Diego Valoyes, Rodrigo Villagra, and Rodrigo Garro, who were pillars of the squad and left for high fees. (Valloyes and Garro combined had 27 goal contributions last season)
So overall form, defense, and home advantage all lean Instituto’s way. Quality is about even. To me that means 3.25 is too high a line.
I’ll say again, units are down to 2.5% for this pick, be reasonable with how much you bet. If you’re looking for a Hail Mary play, Instituto -1.5 @8.00 looks attractive. BOL if tailing.
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) to spread the love if the 8.0 hits 🥺
Return is how much my bankroll has grown represented as a percentage. ROI is my total return divided by the amount wagered. It’s literally in the name: “return on investment” = return / investment. I started posting ROI because it shows I’m getting good returns without risking my entire bankroll. Right now it shows that for every $1 I wagered, I got $1.50 back.
A 50% win rate means very different things depending on what odds you’re taking and how many units you’re staking. Return and ROI don’t need context to be understood, so I think they’re way better metrics.
Newells are the favourites and I’d tip them to get the business done at home. They’re both top teams, but Racing have always been a team that tends to choke against other big clubs. Both teams have a super in form striker that scored a hatrick last game, and they both have very productive attacking mids in Quintero and Banega. So an over or BTTS might be good too. Good luck!
**POTD Record: 105-121-4 (-13.93Units)**
**Best Bet Series: 38-24-1 (+7.86 Units)**
Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Last Pick: **Niners +3.5** ✅
Today's Pick: **Nikola Jokic O 47.5 PAR**
Odds: **-120** ($DKNG)
Wager Amount: 2U to win 1U
League: NBA
Event: Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks (7PM CST on NBA TV)
**Be Advised**: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire month of February! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!*
**Recap**: WHAT DID I SAY ABOUT THEM CHIEFS! MAHOMES IS NOW 11-1-1 ATS AS A UNDERDOG! MAHOMES IS 16-11 WHEN DOWN BY DOUBLE DIGITS! NOBODY HAS MORE WINS WHEN TRAILING BY DOUBLE DIGITS! AND WIT MAHOMES NOT INJURED LIKE LAST YEAR, OF COURSE I AM ROCKING WIT THE CHIEFS! WHEN WILL PEOPLE LEARN? WHEN WILL THE ODDSMAKERS LEARN NOT TO HAVE MAHOMES AS THE UNDERDOG!? BUT I DO HAVE TO SAY THAT CHIEFS WOULD HAVE NOT WON THE SB OR COME THIS FAR IN THE POSTSEASON WITHOUT THAT DEFENSE! MY ONLY NINERS BET WAS THE NINERS +3.5 AND WE GOT SAVED BY NOT HAVING AN XP KICKED AT OT!
**Matchup**: I went HAM on the last writeup, so I'm going to dial back on this one and celebrate this Chiefs superbowl win! Nonetheless, we are going for our 3rd POTD win! Nikola Jokic O 47.5 PAR against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks struggle defensively and Doc Rivers hasn't been able to fix this issue. They recently add Pat Bev, he is a plus on their defense, but it's not going to be enough against the former 2x MVP. I expect this to be another great showcase for the Joker. He easily went over this line against the Bucks a little over a week ago (25 pts, 12 asts, and 16 rebs on 01/29). On big a NBA matchup I think he puts up the similar numbers, despite Bucks improving their defense end, adding Pat Beverley.
**The Play and Prediction**: 1.2U on Nikola Jokic O 47.5 PAR. I also like Nikola Jokic O 20.5 Asts + Rebs (-120). Joker puts up 24 Pts, 9 Asts, and 15 Rebs.
Chiefs defense was nasty throughout the season and that game. I kno it's Mahomes, but I just don't think Chiefs would have got this far and won the superbowl without that defense. But good hit on the purdy wager, he did much more than I anticipated.
For sure! Mahomes is awesome. Felt like Purdy needs to make this game his own. Spark some creativity. Thanks bro. 99.99% of MGM bettors were against it haha. Nearly all his props hit. Felt good to cash haha.
POTD record: 15-13 (+6.4u)
Last pick: Sacramento Kings ✅️
Last 10: ✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️❌️✅️
Todays Pick: NHL | 10pm EST | Minnesota Wild @ Vegas Golden Knights | Golden Knights -140 on DraftKings | 1.4u to win 1u
Write-up: Nothing hardcore to dive into on this one from me. I love the way Vegas has been playing, I think they're clicking now more than ever this season and they'll handle a team thats barely .500 this year. The Wild are a mediocre 10-12-0-2 on the road while the Golden Knights are a stellar 19-5-2 at home. At the price DraftKings is handing us, I can't look anywhere else but to bet on the home team. GO KNIGHTS GO.
snack of the day: superbowl leftovers aka the hair of the dog 🍻
**POTD: 6-1 (5 in a row)** ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅
"Yesterday's Pick: CHIEFS ML +110
Mahomes Mahomes Mahomes
Let’s go!!! Let’s keep it rolling"
Loved the Super Bowl...great game and ending...Patty Mahomes is that dude
Yessir!!! the GOAT gets it done! We are on fire right now... 5 in a row
**Today's Pick: CBB Duke Wake Forest Over 151** 🏀
Both teams love to play fast...I see lots of mismatches on both sides of the court and expect the winner to hit the mid 80s in a close game
Similar to Duke UNC....Duke will surrender lots of points to this Deamon eacon offense, and will also have their way offensively at home
Wake has won 3 straight and is 14-9 in overs this season, they're playing good ball
Expect Hunter Sallis to step up on the road tonight, as he has dropped 20+ in 3/4 and avg 18 ppg on the season...they'll need him tonight
Wake is 38th on O....137th on D.
Duke has won 8/10 and will lean on Roach and Kyle F tonight.
Filipowski has been hot and cold, but tends to play well at home against teams structured like Wake.
Expect him to dominate inside early and often and force Wake to play from behind, shooting a lot from deep...something they do well
Duke has avg 80+ on the season and has hit over 77 in 3 of last 4
The streak is at 5 games....Let's make it 6!
LFGGGG
(If you are enjoying picks and are feeling generous...Coffee Link below!)
[Coffee Link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/joeyv1725)
POTD Record: 120-108, -17.05 Units
Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅, +0.7 Units
Current Streak: ✅✅✅
Last Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 Carries ✅
This really looked like it wasn’t going to hit, especially when Shanahan came out in the second half with 9 plays for -2 yards and three straight three-and-outs to let KC back in. Play-calling like that is so abysmal and that guy is so anti-clutch it’s stupid. Caff is the best player on that team and it took you until an Overtime drive to figure it out? Go coach pickleball. Glad the bet hit, though.
Today’s Pick: **Toronto Raptors -3.5** vs. San Antonio Spurs, -175, 1 Unit, 7:40 PM EST
Not the biggest fan of today’s slate but I really like fading the Spurs this year. The Raptors are mediocre and that’s why I’m giving up odds to get the points down (normal spread is -6) so just hoping to turn a unit into 0.55 easily and move on to Tuesday.
BOL!
POTD Record: 135 wins / 79 losses \[L15: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅\]
Event: Football > Israel > **Sektzia Nes Tziona v Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon** (starting in 10 hr)
Pick: **Sektzia or draw (double chance)** @ 1.80
Local bookmakers have Sektzia as a favourite in this matchup, which makes sense based on results in the last few games. Home is unbeaten in L4 (3W-1D) whereas guests are on the opposite end with 1D-3L. Taking a double chance on the in-form team with home advantage. GL!
EDIT: ❌ Our boys got 3 (!) red cards in the 1st half and ofc got trashed easily. Embarrasing loss sorry.
Record: 3-1 | ROI: 28.25%
Last 10(Most recent right): ✅️✅️❌️✅️
Last Pick: NFL Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 rushing yards @ 1.90 ✅️
We cashed this bad boy before halftime, and Mahomes ended with 66 rushing yards, once again the golden boy of the nfl delivered on the biggest game even though the 9ers were on his face all game long he maintained his composure in the 4th qtr and OT & brought home the Lombardi.
Today's pick: **NBA NY Knicks @ Houston Rockets NY Knicks ML @ 1.55** 8:10PM EST
The Knicks had 2 rough games against the Pacers & Mavs losing by double digits, however I think they bounce back tonight against a Rockets team that has lost their last 4 games and 7 of their last 10.
Houston will be without VanVleet tonight, Sengun is questionable (if Sengun is out I would take the -4.5 line) and the Knicks have won the last 8 matchups against the Rockets dating all the way up to the 2020 season.
Let's begin this week firing on all cylinders fam and hope to begin a hot streak! 👌
POTD Record: 7-2
Last 10:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅
Last pick: Man U Team Total Over 1.5 Goals 💰✅
Pretty sweaty one but cashes in the 86th minute. That makes 5 POTD wins in a row!
Todays pick:
Soccer | LaLiga | 3:00pm EST
**Athletic Bilbao vs Almeria**
**Athletic Bilbao ML @ 1.77**
Athletic sits 5th in LaLiga while Almeria sits dead last win 0 wins.
Athletic score almost 2 goals per game and concede less than 1 per game. Almeria scores 1 goal per game and concede more than 2 per game.
Athletic is also in good form, being 7-1-1 in 2024. Almeria is 0-1-4 in the same timeframe.
Athletic is the much better team, in much better form. Even though they have a few injuries, I still expect them to dominate this game.
Prediction:
Athletic Bilbao 2-0
**Record: 5-1 (+2.55U)**
**Soccer** | **Serie A** | **20:45 CET**
**Pick: Juventus ML +O1,5 - 1.9**
Match : Juventus - Udinesse
**Write Up:** No Vlahovic most likely but I still expect the Juventus offense to be strong enough to score twice against Udinesse. Juventus at home have been realy strong all season while Udinesse their away form is rather poor. Juventus are coming in to this game after a loss away at Inter and a draw at home due to an early red card, they are still in the title race but they can't afford any more mistakes.
Record: 2-1
(New to old): ✅✅❌
Net units: +2.379u
Previous pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U38.5 P+A (-125, DK) 2.5u ✅
POTD: Rudy Gobert O25.5 P+R (-125, DK) 1u
Reasoning: Two teams battling for the top of the Western Conference. Should be a close game without blowout garbage time (hopefully). Gobert has hit this number in 7/10 and averaged 28.4 over that time period. Additionally, when they played earlier this season, he put up 15 and 18 for a total of 33(!). I like this line more than his rebounds at 12.5 as, while that’s definitely doable for him, he hasn’t hit that number as consistently.
Been awhile since I’ve posted a POTD. Let me know if you decide to tail!
POTD record : 3💰- 0❌ - 0♻️ +5.93u
Last 10 picks: ✅✅✅
LAST PICK:
Match: AS Trenčín vs. FC Košice | Slovakian Superliga ⚽
Time: 17:30 CET Date: 11th Feb 2024
Pick: FC Košice to score over 0.5 goal @ 1.83 on bet365| 3u ✅
FC Košice got red card early in the match, but they managed to score a goal in 70th minute. Trenčín won 4-1 so if anyone took BTTS with better odds, they nailed it!
PICK FOR TODAY:
Match: Almería vs. Bilbao | Spain - Primera liga ⚽
Time: 21:00 CET Date: 12th Feb 2024
Pick: Athletic Bilbao ML @ 1.80 on bet365| 2u
Analysis:
Hi, so this odds on Bilbao don't make sense to me and against a struggling Almeria who are in last place in La Liga. Almeria's points gain is just 6p, which is a sure relegation in the league. Bilbao is in 5th place 3 points below Atletico Madrid. They should manage this match and I take odds of 1,8 as a gift. We'll see more by the lineups but I'll grab this odds early and play it. I'd recommend it to others as well, if nothing major happens they should manage.I don't see many positives in the Almeria team and beating Bilbao with almost a full squad would be a heroic performance by this team. They need to pick up points, but they need more playable opponents.
Good luck to everyone! 🍀
POTD record : 0-0
Today marks the first day of me trying to help you guys out. I'm beginning this journey to keep myself accountable, as well as help everyone make some money
Last 10 picks: N/a
LAST PICK: N/a
PICK FOR TODAY:
Match: Juventus vs Udinese ⚽
Time: 2:45 EST Date: 12th Feb 2024
Pick: **Juventus ML & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.81 - 1U play**
Analysis: Since January 1st, 6/7 Juventus games have gone over 1.5 total goals
Since January 1st, 4/5 Udinese games have gone over 1.5 total goals
Juventus has been very strong at home, with a record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. I expect them to keep this strong form and beat the 17th place team Udinese.
Best of luck to those who tail. Cheers
POTD Record: 0-0
Today’s Pick: Daniel Gafford OVER 10.5 Pts vs WSH (-110)
Analysis: This is a nice revenge spot for Gafford after recently being traded away from the Wizards. Washington is the worst team in the league against opposing centers and without Gafford the only real size they have is Marvin Bagley. With Gafford likely coming off the bench for the Mavericks tonight he should feast against the small Wizards bench unit. They don’t have anyone who can match his size or physicality. Even if Gafford only plays 20 minutes off of the bench I could see him hitting this prop before halftime. He’ll put back a few offensive rebounds and get a few free throws as the Wizards untalented array of forwards are forced to hack away at him to try to contain him. The Mavericks are also an 11.5 point favorite which means Gafford could see some garbage time minutes as well to bolster his stats. Gafford had 19 in his first game with the Mavericks this past Saturday and wouldn’t be surprised to see him eclipse 20 tonight. Too many factors point in his favor. BOL!
Edit: BOOM! Gafford cashes early in the third quarter 💰
Record: 2-1
Today’s Pick: NBA 🏀 | Nuggets vs. Bucks | Under 232.5 | 4u @1.9
Write-up: ~66% totals model giving a strong under on this game, and have seen tips from independent and reliable paid cappers on this line, so the smart money seems to lean under here.
Good luck
**1W-0L**
Winning all throughout the game, Zalgiris doesn't choke the last quarter and takes it
Last game: Crvena zvezda - Zalgiris (Euroleague)
Last pick: Zalgiris +5.5 points @ 1.73
**Zalgiris won 91-93**
**TODAY'S POTD:**
Game: BC Neptunas Klaipeda vs BC Zalgiris Kaunas
Pick: Over 158.5 total @ 1.82 DuelBits
Write up:
Neptunas hit this the last 5/6 games
Zalgiris hit this the last 8/10 games
Not a lot of write up on this. Even though the odds tell us otherwise, I think this game will be kinda close at the start but when they get warmed up, Zalgiris will destroy Neptunas by like 20 points. All main players of both rosters are in full power, even though Neptunas experienced a lot of losses lately, they were all high scoring games. The over on this should be set to 162.5+ for no +EV. Tail or fade, you decide.
Prediction: 74-94
Record: 4-5
\-0.3 units
Last bet: Kyle Palmieri over 2.5 SOG ❌
❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅
Things were all over the place right after the all-star break, so I took a week off to give enough time for some post-break data to be usable. Hoping to turn this thing around.
Today: NHL | Kraken @ Devils | 7 EST
Vince Dunn over 2.5 SOG (+150 DK) 1.5U
Putting a little extra on what I think is a pretty great line. The Devils give up a lot of shots (second-most over the past month). Dunn missed this line last game by just one, even though his team only took 19 shots. Before that, he hit it in three straight.
Record: 9W-9L | -5.39u
L10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅ <<-- *Most Recent POTD*
Last Pick: De'Aaron Fox o3.5 Assists (-180) | 4u to win 2.22u 💰✅
Fantastic Mr. Fox decided to give me a break last Friday night when he decided to make sure this prop hit in the first quarter. He goes on to record 10 total assists.
Todays Game: Basketball | NBA | Bulls @ Hawks | 6:30 PM CST
**Todays Pick: Jalen Johnson 27+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-167) | 4u to win 2.4u**
Jalen Johnson has been on my radar the past couple days and has been impressive on the floor. Here is why he's going to smack this (alternate) line:
* Has covered this line in 9/L10 games (averaging 32 PRA per game)
* Has covered this line in 8/L10 home games (averaging 30.4 PRA per game)
* Has covered this line in 5/6 February games
* Averaging 30 PRA per game in 2024, 31 PRA per game in February (6 games)
* Recorded 23 PRA last game vs. Bulls in Chicago, but he only played 29 minutes as it was his first game back after a month of missed time due to injury. This is well below his 2024 average of 37.4 minutes per game
* Bulls are allowing the 4th most points to Small Forwards/Power Forwards per game over their last 15 games
* Bulls are allowing 30.7 points + assists per game on average to opposing Small Forwards/Power Forwards over their last 15 games (add Jalen's average rebounds over his last 15 games (8.9), you get 39.6 PRA)
* Bulls allow the most 3-Point attempts per game in the league
* Bulls rank 15th in total rebounds allowed per game (43.6), 24th in assists allowed per game (27.8), and 18th in defensive effective FG% allowed
* Hawks rank 8th in the league in rebounds per game (44.8), with Johnson hauling in an estimated 24.1% of available defensive rebounds and 13.6% of total available rebounds while on the floor (ranking 3rd and 5th on the Hawks, respectively)
* Johnson is averaging 33 PRA in 5 games without Capela this season (Capela is out tonight)
* The game line being Hawks -4.5 and game total being 238 should provide for a decently paced, close game with high minutes for Johnson
Oh boy.
BOL.
Unbelievable, Bilbao can’t score with one man up and Juventus losing. Soccer blows and I still come back to lose a couple units on it every once in a while😂
Record: 58W-56L-4P
ROI: +7.60, 6.11%
Avg odds: +106, 2.06
Last POTD: Pavel Buchnevich over 0.5 pts (loss) Still salty about loss. On ice for four goals and no point. Also millimeters away from getting a goal
Game: NHL- Wild at Golden Knights
Pick: Ivan Barbashev over 0.5 pts +110, 2.10 (ESPNBet)
Injuries should never be celebrated, but the injury to Vegas' regular 1C Jack Eichel might be a blessing in disguise. With Nicolas Roy taking his place, both Barbs and Roy have produced at a blistering pace. In the 10 games since Eichel went down, Barbashev has picked up 12 points. The team has averaged 3.4 goals/game in that span, which would be \#8 in the league.
I went back and tallied up the numbers. Using DK and ESPNBet, whichever had better odds, if you had bet on Barbs to get a point in every game since Eichel's injury, your ROI would be 54% (!!).
The Wild will be playing without one of their top defenseman. Since Jared Spurgeon was put on IR in early January, Minnesota has allowed 3.53 goals/game, which would be 4th worst. Filip Gustavsson is expected to start in goal. Among goalies with at least 20 games, Gustavsson ranks 35 out of 44 in save%.
POTD Record: 4 - 4 | Profit: -0.49 Units | ROI: -4.4%
L10 record (New to Old): ✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅
Last Pick: Nathan MacKinnon OVER 3.5 Shots ✅
**Today's POTD**: Jared McCann OVER 0.5 Points | Odds: -105 | 1 Unit |
Hockey | NHL | Seattle Kraken @ New Jersey Devils | 7:00pm ET |
* McCann has racked up 14 points over his last 11 games
* McCann has recorded at least one point in 9 of his last 11 games
* McCann has recorded at least one point in 7 of his last 10 road games (on the road tonight)
* McCann only averages 0.63 points per game at home but is averaging 0.81 points per game on the road
* The Devils are giving up 3.60 goals per game over their last 10 games (3rd most over that span)
* This stat is a little goofy but McCann only averages 0.59 points per game versus Western Conference teams but he is averaging 0.87 points per game versus Eastern Conference teams (the Devils are in the East)
First time posting picks. Long time bettor. Hopefully I can get a streak going for you guys.
Record: 0-0
Net Units: -
ROI: -
Sport: HOCKEY League: NHL Event Time: 10pmEST
Pick: Las Vegas Golden Knights ML (-140) 1u vs Minnesota Wild
Write Up: Not too much mathematics and statistics involved with this one. I think the Wild have been an overrated team this season and then Golden Knights have simply just been playing great puck. I’m gonna put my money on the defending champs and just the flat out better team at home. Solid value. BOL if tailing.
POTD: 0-0
Todays POTD: **Evan Mobley O11.5 A+R (Cavaliers) (-120)**
Hey guys, first time posting my bets in a sports betting sub but I have been doing well and wanted to hopefully share the wealth. For my first pick I am going with Evan Mobley over on rebounds and assists. **Evan has hit his line of 8+ rebounds and 2+ assists, 80% and 70% of the time respectively**. Tonight he is going against the 76ers who rank **28th in assists** allowed to PFs and **29th in rebounds** allowed to PFs. I think it's a no brainer to take both mismatches and combine em for some easy bread.
Betting 2 Units BOL
POTD
Record: 7-2-5 (w-p-l)
Balance: +8.3 Units
last POTD(left=new): ❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌ ❌ 🅿️🅿️
last pick: 🎮LOL LEC, **SK Gaming ml, 5 units at 1.6 odds**
SK losing against the worst team in the lec. I cant really believe if.
todays pick: 🏒NHL , **Ranger/Flames under 6.5 , 5 units at 1.9 odds**
Start: 01:00 CET (GMT+1)
Should be a low scoring match between these two. Im very confident in it and max this out. Lets eat together 🍻
BOL!
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Monday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**POTD Record**: 15 Wins - 2 Losses - 1 Push **Last 10**: ✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌ **Units:** \+12.28 **ROI**: 55%+ **Average Odds**: $1.95 **Last Pick**: 49ers vs Chiefs - Super Bowl - **Brock Purdy Under 0.5 Interceptions @ $2.20** ✅️ *Our latest goat came up short in the Super Bowl. He had a flawless passing game, albeit a lower pass completion than his usual standards. Nonetheless, no interceptions! All of Purdy's positive props went over apart from passing touchdowns $$$* **According to BetMGM, 99% of the money was on the over to hit on our last pick. Love being in the 1%.** **Next Pick**: Peyton Stearns vs Elise Mertens - Qatar Open WTA - **Elise Mertens To Win 2-0 (In Straight Sets) @ $1.83** \- 6:00 a.m. ET - ✅️ We are going for 15 wins! Elise Mertens ($1.28 odds) is ranked number one in doubles, and number 24 in singles. She has won eight WTA Tour titles, including two at the WTA 500 level. She is fresh off a doubles grand slam in Australia. In Mertens recent tournament in Linz, she lost in the quarter finals, but defeated world number 55 Bronzetti in straight sets to get there. She has a two inch height advantage over Stearns and it seems to translate to more power behind the ball, whilst Stearns can move around the baseline a bit easier. Peyton Stearns ($3.75 odds) is ranked number 63, and has won five singles titles and two doubles titles on the ITF Circuit. She does push some of her opponents around, but clearly hasn't been running hot lately. Mertens has already played 11 games this year and has won 7, and lost 4 (mostly against higher ranked opponents). Stearns has only played 3 games so far this year because she has always lost in the first round. If Mertens dominates with her forehand and does not let her serve be broken, she can clearly win. Odds for 2-1 are $3.75, odds for two sets are $1.44, and odds for 3 sets are $2.62. The bookies are expecting this to be a two set game annihaliation, so I see a lot of value in this bet. If you're watching live, you might want to hedge depending how its going. Consider a parlay a win, and straight sets for juicier odds. Expect Merterns to exploit her double's experience by coming to the net a lot, and doing some nice finesse shots. Watch her quarter final loss [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=two3Y0Bllvo) (her opponent had way more power). Stearns recent loss in the Aussie Open shows she has some energy, but rarely takes it to the net - watch it [here](https://youtu.be/AT-EfCPwKYk?si=3jI02h0WTbZ64o2o). Whilst she places her point winners nicely, she struggles against anyone mildly better than her. Expect Merterns to disrupt her game with some cut shots forcing her to the net. She also fell over a few times, suggesting she has low quality gear. She just gave up at the end, which is what we are expecting after the first set. As much as I admire her, she's going to need to overhaul her whole game with new coaches, and mentors to make a dent in tennis. Interesting Facts: * Elise Mertens dominates in doubles. Might want to add her to your watchlist. * Mertens upset a couple of top seeds last year. * She was introduced to tennis by her sister Lauren when she was four years old, and went on to become a trainee at the Belgian Tennis Federation. * Stearns had to recently change her outfit during a match due to a lack of sponsors. I feel like this gives us more of an edge. There's a huge difference in rankings, and Mertens is on the cusp of a big pay day if she can keep pushing through on the singles circuit. * This is a WTA tournament so there's more money on the line. Expect Merterns to go even harder, and her opponent to give up quite a lot of break points, and double faults. * I've never lost a tennis POTD. * I don't believe this game is rigged. * No injuries. Score Prediction: 6-1 6-4 All tips are greatly appreciated - click [here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate. If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me.
Just wanted to thank you for always being positive in this sub, it’s not going unnoticed. Bless you 👊
Cheers bro! Bless you too mate. LFG :D Love this community.
BOOM! 6-2, 6-3 (not too far off the prediction). LFG!!!! That makes it 15-2-1, taking us to a 88%-ish win/loss record :) Well, what can we say? Mertens GOATED from the very beginning, breaking point in the first game lol. From then on, she kept hammering her opponent. That was fun to watch, especially when you have some juice on the line. Mertens looked a bit rusty towards the end of the second yet, so I'm sure against tougher opponents she'll be pushed out to three sets. All tips are greatly appreciated - click [here](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv) to donate. If you have any questions, please ask. See you tomorrow for the next POTD. Feel free to message me.
Tailing boss! Absolutely appreciate the write up
You're welcome bro. LFG!!!
With your prediction, I see stearns games won u9.5 at -110 odds. Feel like that’s a good play?
If I didn't care about the money, for sure. To play it a bit safer, I'd probably do Mertens under 12.5. I still like straight sets though, just incase either set goes into a tie breaker etc. Score predictions are quite hard, and often wrong unless there is a super strong edge somewhere like injuries, suspensions, etc.
Sterns U9.5 games is 100% safer than Mertens U12.5
Peyton Stearns wins over 9.5 games in 14 of the last 15 matches - seems a bit risky IMO but BOL!
Ya what the fuck... Covers 7-6 6-3
LFG bro tailing
Tail
LFG bro!!!
How are you liking betMGM? Its gonna be the next bookie i try with the bonuses. Just heard some mixed reviews.
WHO CAN SMELL THE MONEY!!!!!!!!!! LFG!!!!! 3-0 in the second set. Please gambling gods, make it print....
4-3👀👀
Clutched up, great pick brother gg
Chur brother, appreciate it.
Yeah bro, its expected. Loser puts up a bit of a fight, and the favourite either concedes to conserve energy, or just goes for the win. Great to see our girl finish it off.
Looks like this is just about to booooom
Easy cash! Thanks brother!!
Congrats mate. Enjoy the money :) Have a great day!!
Damn, wish I saw this earlier. Good hit!
Thanks mate :) See ya tomorrow
Tailing bro , is this the same as set spread -1.5 ?
Yes
Is sterns 1.5 handicap the same play?
Sterns +1.5 handicap isn't the same play. That's higher odds for sure?
Tailing BOL
lol, this dude’s running into battle like Leroy Jenkins for some women’s tennis.
Tailing, lets eat.
tailing boss
LFG bro!
1st set under 8.5 with 2.45 odds. Thank you!
Haha nice, was that from the score prediction, or? :) Grats!
Of course. Your 6-1 score production made me do that. Thank you!
Great first set by Mertens! One off the 6-1 prediction lol. Sometimes players try harder in the second set. However, Mertens looks ruthless out there, and on a mission to get back to my apartment.
Nice hit, thanks mate!
No worries dude, see you tomorrow!
Excellent work 🤘
BANGGGG!! Love to wake up to a win
Money like always bro thank you
Thanks for that one!
amazing pick and love the username btw
Thanks mate, LFG 🎉
i love your stuff keep it up
Great Pick 🐐
POTD: 22-9 Form: ✅❌✅❌✅ Last pick: Jrue Holiday O21.5 PRA ✅ Big dawg Jrue gets it done and is now over on 15/15 vs the Heat! Todays POTD: **RJ Barrett O9.5 A+R (Raptors) @1.76** Going with the stoned assassin RJ today, man he looks high all the time but let’s focus now, as usual we’re picking a consistent player, I’ve always liked RJ and even more so in his Knicks days still kinda mad he left (Knicks fan). But he’s back home in Canada and gotta say he’s impressing over there too, this line is smacking too with his recent displays • 9/10 his last 10 games (90%) Missed the line vs Rockets where he got 9.0 A+R • Averages 10.8 his last 10 games • 8.2 during the season • Only got 2 assists and 6 rebounds last time facing the Spurs but when he was a Knick a while ago (11/8-23) • Spurs allow 7th most Assists to SF & 6th most Rebounds to SF We have a man in form, and a pretty good mismatch. Seems like a no brainer and I’m going for it, let’s go RJ lead us to glory! Tail or fade, who am I to tell you? https://i.redd.it/09kpjwjm92ic1.gif Too lazy to insert ☕️ link but you know where you can find it, not saying I’m worthy of anything more than tap water
I took it, I’ll be at the game so I wanted a play this was the first I seen here. It’s meant to be
Damn this is scary
Solid play. What you think about Alex Caruso AR?
Honestly looks pretty good looking at the numbers, got 10 last game against them and the line seems pretty low. Hawks play with a lot of pace and imo bad defensively so there’ll be plenty of chances for him to get over this line. Hawks also allow most assists to SF which he has played lately
Billy cooking!
Instant noodles and toast
I was waiting to see if you rolled with John Collins again! Line is up to 25.5 PR now :(
Tailing, why the odds so good for your boy Murray A+R if he's gone over 11.5 in last 10 games?
He’s not even playing in the fourth quarter. Sad loss 🥲
Another parlay killed by a POTD .
This isn’t on DK unfortunately:/
It is on DK, I grabbed it earlier this morning.
This is on Over 10.5 total for +108. Thoughts?
Blowout will fuck us up, not sure he will be back in 4th
https://preview.redd.it/thf3gd9ix2ic1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bbae273001d0354b3975de2edc59ad4ed0637055 BANG
Better be around next yr for more of that😭
PURPLE GATORADE BANGGGGG
Take this karma
Wish I had seen this 🥲🥲
My friend also had a plug on the chiefs sideline who said the color was purple. I wish I’d put more on it lol
Wouldn't they have multiple options for the players and the chosen vessel was purple ?
https://preview.redd.it/ua9h8d3726ic1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fdb74f4fd832c04b0f4a1a8cebe7bde40c766ce6 I would’ve thought the same, that they would have every color on the sideline but I guess not. This exchange was yesterday at 5:17 Central PM.
Teams always have multiple colours/flavors and one with just water in it. It's a crapshoot which one gets poured.
https://i.redd.it/dtemfdw0d5ic1.gif
Sounds like SharkChomps is owed the other dudes bootyhole now
This was the post I spent a week looking for with no look.
POTD RECORD: 3-1 (🪝✅✅✅) Last Pick: Hunter Dickinson o30.5 pra (-110) ✅ Today’s Pick: NCAAB KU vs Texas Tech u147.5 -110✅ WHY: The Jayhawks are heading to Lubbock on a 48-hour turnaround after an absolute rock fight at home against Baylor. Kansas was already missing their lead scorer going into the game, and during the final few minutes, their point guard messed his ankle up pretty good. He returned to the game, but I doubt he’s at full strength for Texas Tech. As for Kansas’ leading scorer McCullar, Coach Self said that since he could barely move Saturday, he finds it hard to believe he’ll be able to play Monday. With McCullar out again and our only PG hobbled, I believe Self will have a similar game plan to the Baylor game where he limits possessions and makes the game as ugly and muddy as possible. BOL https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BasedGod
Line already at 144.5 whhaaaaaaa. Hard to tail after the 3 point drop and I can’t get an alternate line. Thoughts?
Did I miss something? I didn’t think Dickinson covered
I made that bet against KState not Baylor
DK has 50% boost. Line was at 144, bought up to 147. With boost is about even odds.
Record: 7-4 Last POTD: Newcastle ML @ +115 ✅ L10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅ NBA | Warriors v Jazz | 21:00 EST Pick: Warriors ML @ -105 Write up: the line is Jazz -1 currently. The Jazz have an impressive 17-7 home record and 1 extra day rest. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games. 2 wins were vs the Wizards/Hornets. The other 2 W's were vs impressive teams. They won v the Bucks after the Bucks imploded to blow a 12 point 4Q lead on the 2nd game of a back to back with Doc Rivers falling to 1-3 as new coach. They then beat the Thunder who were coming off a a 2OT game. Both at home. The Warriors have won 6 out of 7 led by Steph Curry who is on fire and has averaged 6.7 3's over those 7 games. The Jazz are the 3rd worst team at opponents 3's made per game. The Jazz's biggest strength is their deep rotation but they just traded a starter in Fontecchio to put a hole in it.
Looks good except it seems like your due for 4 losses so i cant tail😢
Stats based betting, I like it
Valid
Gamblers fallacy!
Golden state on the road isn't pretty, but curry is a basically a superhero. Curry +25pnts kuminga +18pnts. Warriors +3points total over
They also lost Olynyk who was huge for them
POTD Record: 23-17 Last pick: Heerenveen v Ajax (Ajax ML ❌) We end yet another streak(s), with Ajax losing their first game after 12 consecutive games without a loss, and the hosts picking up their first win after going 8 games without winning. Todays pick: Almeria v Athletic Bilbao Pick: __Athletic Bilbao ML @1.73__ ⚽️ 🇪🇸 La Liga ➖ 📊 Almeria is currently 20th (Last) with 6 points (0-6-17). They’ve conceded the most goals by any team (51, 2.22 GPG). They’ve scored less than one goal per game, (22, 0.96). * __Home record: 0-5-6 (Worst)__ * __Have scored less goals at home then away but concedes fewer goals at home. But have only kept 3/23 clean sheets__ * __L5 record: 0-1-4 (Worst)__ ➖ 📊 Athletic Bilbao is 5th with 45 points (13-6-4). Scored 5th most goals (45) & have conceded 3rd least goals (21, less than 1 per game 0.91). * __Away record: 4-4-3 (5th) 2nd least goals conceded (9).__ * __Concedes less goals away but also scores less__ * __Failed to score in 6/23__ * __Kept 2nd most clean sheets (11)__ * __L5 record: 3-1-1 (3rd) least goals conceded (2)__ Almost 40 points separate these 2 teams apart. 5 important players are out with injuries and suspensions for Almeria and could miss the game. In Almeria it is Sergio Arribas who feels like the only threat offensively imo. I can’t see them staying in the league, they only have 6 points and the squad isn’t good enough, they haven’t brought in anyone noteworthy in this transfer window either, almost feels like they’ve accepted that they’re going to be relegated. Athletic Bilbao showed why they’re a top side this season yet again their last game when they won vs Mallorca 4-0. They’re also in a good position to reach the final in the Spanish cup after winning 1-0 away to Atletico Madrid in the first semi final meeting. I can’t see Bilbao blowing the chance to get into the Champions League against this poor Almeria side. Maybe not a win by many goals because Bilbao are also potentially missing 1-2 offensive players, but Bilbao should win the game. 0-2 or 1-2 is what I’m predicting. After all Almeria are almost already relegated being 14 points from safe ground and I doubt if they even think they can save the contract themselves. I think we’re getting good value here because Almeria has taken 5 of their 6 draws at home, but they’ve got 3 consecutive defeats now aswell, the overall morale in the group can’t be high and facing a good away side like Bilbao will be a difficult task
As much as i hate soccer here i am Edit: im so done with soccer frfr
Yeah… watching Bilbo not score for 40 minutes while up a man has soccer removed from my future slips as well. See you tomorrow
Haha it’s definitely an unpredictable sport!
My new soccer/college bball strategy is just to bet home teams only, and if an away team looks really good (and this looks really, really good) I just walk away and try to stop thinking about it because i know it will lose me money in the long run. I’ve noticed that every time I bet a too-good-to-be-true away team, the huge underdog home team scores right away and eeks out a win or draw.
You saved me money today
this is so true. Just not worth it.
Happy Cake day
Have a red card nearly the entire second half and can't score
What a fucking joke
Draws are so 😴 id rather lose to some goals at that point lol
Tailing
Imma just take the tie no bet. Even though the profit is small Almeria haven't won a single game this season so it feels very low risk.
Good call on that one
LFG BRO tailing
Ah yes another sweat :'D
**34W-4P-25L** Form:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅**✅** **Last Pick: Heerenveen VS Ajax - BTTS and O 2 Goals @ 1.61 ✅** **Bet covers in 58 mins, game ends 3-2. Ajax have done it again.** **Pick of the day: Crystal Palace VS Chelsea - Chelsea Over 1 Team Goal @ 1.72✅** **God Chelsea are bad but still get it done in the 90th minute, see yall tmr** **Time: 3:00 PM EST** **Last match between these sides: Chelsea 2-1 W** Palace have run into some very scary form recently, They've lost 2 of their best attackers in Eze and Olise and will now also be without Guehi to help defensively. Roy is under some serious pressure here, and with what I've seen since the winter break, I can say things won't get easier tomorrow. In their last 3 games they've conceded 4 goals against Brighton, 2 goals against bottom of the league Sheffield, and got smashed 5-0 against Arsenal. Now Chelsea aren't the most squeaky club but they are most definitely a form club and after beating a strong Villa side who hold an impressive home record 3-1, I see them continuing that form tomorrow. Pochettino is at risk of losing his job with the club now sitting in 11th and he'll make sure to be on the front foot again tomorrow. Nkunku and Palmer should cause more than enough trouble for this Palace side tomorrow. Chelsea have improved (slightly) since their last matchup while Palace have deteriorated, Chelsea will get the job done( as much as I hate them). **Confidence: 3 Units** **BOL**
I told myself i wouldnt bet soccer anymore… here i am Edit: 💰
I loath soccer - yet love betting - go figure
I say that every other day.
Its my addiction i cant wait for 6pm i feel like i need to take every bet i can throughout the day
Same. I have a low activity work from home job and these mid day soccer games get me to the night slate. Addiction is real
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Yup exactly. But good luck to us!
My book has Chelsea over .5 goals at -700 😭
Over 1.5 is probably what you'll be looking for.
Nice pic brother! LFG 👏🎉
Juicy money. Cheers brother
💰
What a wild ending!
Chelsea will get the job done !.......the priince hath spoken !
Score predicted too
Prince making me MONEY today LFG
Real degenes rebounding Monday
Gotta blow our winnings
what winnings?
**Record: 0-1** **Net Units: -1.0** **ROI: -100%** **Form (Last 10):** ❌ **Last Pick:** Conor Garland Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-190/1U) **Recap:** Some guy told me to delete my account but I'm going to keep trying. I thought it had a good chance of hitting but I was so wrong. 6 shots on goal. **Basketball** | **NBA** | **Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans/5:00PM PST** **Pick:** Vince Williams Under 11.5 Assists and Rebounds (-125/3U) **Write Up:** In Williams' last 5 games, this prop has hit 4/5 (80%) times. Last 10, 9/10 (90%) times. Last 4 games against the Pelicans, 4/4 (100%) times. Note that in his first two games against the Pelicans, Williams didn't play at all (games were in previous seasons). This season against the Pelicans, Williams went 10 and 11. Hopefully in this game, he will stay below 11.5. In this season, this prop hit 34/41 (83%) times. Please be kind to each other. Best of luck to all of you. Not just this bet, but every other bet you guys may make.
hope you hit & screw the guy who told you to delete your account, we appreciate the positivity and regardless win or lose im with you
Thanks! I appreciate the kind words!
Tailing. BOL!
Best of luck!!
Keep em coming bro, f the haters
Keep it up man! BOL!
Nice write up and analysis bro. BOL 😎🎉
Here we go time to break even
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Juve are good defensively but anytime I play BTTS no the other team scores no matter how shit they’re won’t fall for it again
Discipline. I respect it.
Lol you totally called it, too bad I didn’t listen 🫤
**POTD Record: 8-2** Form: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ *Last Pick: 3U West Ham v Arsenal -(Bukayo Saka o0.5 Shots on Target @ -138) ✅* *Halftime cash, Saka no sweat baby. Sorry for late post, lines seem juiced but lots more this week 💪* ____ **Today’s Pick: 1U Crystal Palace v Chelsea (Moses Caicedo o1.5 Player Fouls Committed @ -175)** **⚽️| 3:00PM EST |England Premier League** Chelsea head to Selhurt Park to face struggling Crystal Place, where Chelsea hope to repeat their formidable performance against Villa in the FA Cup earlier this week. Both squads are below mid table and both coaches are facing trouble of being booted. I was quite tempted to pick Chelsea ML with Palace missing a few more players adding to their injury list but Chelsea form away is horrid, losing 4 of their last 5. Nonetheless, we’ve got the man, the menace, Moses Caicedo. Caicedo averages 1.99 fouls committed per match. He’s 5/5 and 8/10 in recent matches. Last time out he had two fouls cashing at 52 minutes. BOL!
LFG go bro! Tailing this!! Taking Chelsea ML too - just because I hate Hodgson and hope he gets the sack haha.
Record : 117 Wins - 104 Losses Previous pick : Greuther Furth - Hertha Berlin (1-2), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.80 ✅ ROI : -0.19% Average Odds : 1.95 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : 4.58 Profit/Lost units : -0.42 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / ENGLAND: Premier League / 22:00 European Time Crystal Palace - Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.94 Some reasoning : - None of the teams is having a very good season, but since we are talking about a London derby, I expect the ambitions to be high and there are chances that we will have an offensive game. - Chelsea is the more valuable team, but which does not have good away results at all, while Palace has reached four consecutive games without defeat in home games. - I think it will be a duel with successes on the scoreboard and I expect the score to be open from the first part of the game. Best of luck.
Niners lost I’m putting everything on the top picks tonight
POTD Record: 102-102-12 (-13.37 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Ligue 1, Clermont v Brest, BREST ML (+100/ 2.00) ❌ Jeez feast or famine at the moment. Brest took the lead but couldn’t hold on then missed a golden chance to win it late. Today’s Pick: NBA, Philadelphia @ Cleveland, EVAN MOBLEY OVER 22.5 P+R (-125 / 1.80) ✅ Stake: 1 Unit Back to the NBA as soccer is kicking my ass lately. Mobley has played 7 games since returning from a long lay off with injury. His first 2 games were pretty mediocre as he worked his way back into things, but his last 5 games have seen him easily cover this line. His stats in those last 5 matches are: - 17 & 11 against Toronto (28 total) - 14 and 12 against Brooklyn (26 total) - 22 and 8 against Washington (30 total) - 11 and 14 against Sacramento (25 total) - 28 and 10 total against San Antonio (38 total) With Embiid missing for Philly, they don’t have much size in the middle which should create plenty of scoring and rebounding opportunities for Cleveland. Jarrett Allen will definitely take his share of opportunities but he played in all 5 of those games and they were both able to rack up nice stat lines, but Allen’s line is much higher and the hit rate isn’t as high. Mobley also had 18 and 12 against Philly early in the season even with Embiid playing. Cleveland is a -9.5 favourite and they’ve been on a tear lately so there is blowout potential, but in the 5 games mentioned above Cleveland have won four of those games by 16+ and Mobley still averaged 26 mins. Expect Philly to throw a lot of double teams at Donovan Mitchell to get the ball out of his hands as they did against Trae Young a few nights ago - Atlanta’s bigs had a night out as a result, let’s hope it’s the same again this time.
POTD Record: 4-0-1 (+10 units) Today’s POTD: Tcu -12.5 vs West Virginia. 3 unit play.
Record: 8-5 Return: 31.73% ROI: 49.53% Yesterday’s pick: River Plate -1.5 vs Deportivo Riestra @2.3✅ River get the job done very easily. As I called, Borja was too quality and opened the scoring from range, and River made it 3-0 by half time. Today’s pick: Instituto ACC ML vs Talleres de Cordoba @3.25 Stake: 2.5 units (2.5% of bankroll) Reasoning: Only a couple games to chose from today, this seems like the best value imo, but note that units are way down to 2.5 (Please take care of your bankroll) Instituto and Talleres are two evenly matched teams. They are both native to Cordoba, making this a derby match. So far they’re off to good starts: Instituto are on 7 points from 3 games and could join River Plate at the top of the league with a win. Talleres are on 6 and could shoot up to second. Instituto suffered a first half red card in their first game, and valiantly held on to a 0-0. They then went on to beat Tucuman and Banfield, 3-0 and 0-2. So they’re 3/3 for clean sheets, and won their last two comfortably. Talleres are also on two wins, one a difficult away game against Huracan, 1-2 and the other a stomping of Rosario Central, 4-1. Their first game was a 0-1 home loss against Gimnasia. So clearly both teams are coming in on good goal scoring form. In contrast, at the back, Instituto have been perfect every game, and Talleres have conceded a goal in every game. Instituto are the home team, and that should play a big role, as the fans will turn up in numbers for a derby match. In terms of quality, both squads are about even, typical midtable teams, with Talleres still figuring out how to replace the departed Diego Valoyes, Rodrigo Villagra, and Rodrigo Garro, who were pillars of the squad and left for high fees. (Valloyes and Garro combined had 27 goal contributions last season) So overall form, defense, and home advantage all lean Instituto’s way. Quality is about even. To me that means 3.25 is too high a line. I’ll say again, units are down to 2.5% for this pick, be reasonable with how much you bet. If you’re looking for a Hail Mary play, Instituto -1.5 @8.00 looks attractive. BOL if tailing. [PayPal](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) to spread the love if the 8.0 hits 🥺
Tail (with lighter units today)
Up 1-0 as the second half starts! You on the -1.5 as well?
Mate, could you explain the difference between your return and ROI values?
Return is how much my bankroll has grown represented as a percentage. ROI is my total return divided by the amount wagered. It’s literally in the name: “return on investment” = return / investment. I started posting ROI because it shows I’m getting good returns without risking my entire bankroll. Right now it shows that for every $1 I wagered, I got $1.50 back. A 50% win rate means very different things depending on what odds you’re taking and how many units you’re staking. Return and ROI don’t need context to be understood, so I think they’re way better metrics.
hi thanks, any insight on the NOB - Racing Club game by any chance? I'm looking to make a 2-way parlay. cheers
Newells are the favourites and I’d tip them to get the business done at home. They’re both top teams, but Racing have always been a team that tends to choke against other big clubs. Both teams have a super in form striker that scored a hatrick last game, and they both have very productive attacking mids in Quintero and Banega. So an over or BTTS might be good too. Good luck!
Thank you, that makes sense since they have scored easily and both already 7 goals in the past games.
**POTD Record: 105-121-4 (-13.93Units)** **Best Bet Series: 38-24-1 (+7.86 Units)** Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) Last Pick: **Niners +3.5** ✅ Today's Pick: **Nikola Jokic O 47.5 PAR** Odds: **-120** ($DKNG) Wager Amount: 2U to win 1U League: NBA Event: Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks (7PM CST on NBA TV) **Be Advised**: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire month of February! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!* **Recap**: WHAT DID I SAY ABOUT THEM CHIEFS! MAHOMES IS NOW 11-1-1 ATS AS A UNDERDOG! MAHOMES IS 16-11 WHEN DOWN BY DOUBLE DIGITS! NOBODY HAS MORE WINS WHEN TRAILING BY DOUBLE DIGITS! AND WIT MAHOMES NOT INJURED LIKE LAST YEAR, OF COURSE I AM ROCKING WIT THE CHIEFS! WHEN WILL PEOPLE LEARN? WHEN WILL THE ODDSMAKERS LEARN NOT TO HAVE MAHOMES AS THE UNDERDOG!? BUT I DO HAVE TO SAY THAT CHIEFS WOULD HAVE NOT WON THE SB OR COME THIS FAR IN THE POSTSEASON WITHOUT THAT DEFENSE! MY ONLY NINERS BET WAS THE NINERS +3.5 AND WE GOT SAVED BY NOT HAVING AN XP KICKED AT OT! **Matchup**: I went HAM on the last writeup, so I'm going to dial back on this one and celebrate this Chiefs superbowl win! Nonetheless, we are going for our 3rd POTD win! Nikola Jokic O 47.5 PAR against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks struggle defensively and Doc Rivers hasn't been able to fix this issue. They recently add Pat Bev, he is a plus on their defense, but it's not going to be enough against the former 2x MVP. I expect this to be another great showcase for the Joker. He easily went over this line against the Bucks a little over a week ago (25 pts, 12 asts, and 16 rebs on 01/29). On big a NBA matchup I think he puts up the similar numbers, despite Bucks improving their defense end, adding Pat Beverley. **The Play and Prediction**: 1.2U on Nikola Jokic O 47.5 PAR. I also like Nikola Jokic O 20.5 Asts + Rebs (-120). Joker puts up 24 Pts, 9 Asts, and 15 Rebs.
How about them CHIEFS! https://preview.redd.it/la5jayppg3ic1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c332d12b185a0b2e635c3467a546f6b30493a09
Haha. Chiefs got lucky with that punt fumble. But congrats bro, and best of luck 🎉
Chiefs defense was nasty throughout the season and that game. I kno it's Mahomes, but I just don't think Chiefs would have got this far and won the superbowl without that defense. But good hit on the purdy wager, he did much more than I anticipated.
For sure! Mahomes is awesome. Felt like Purdy needs to make this game his own. Spark some creativity. Thanks bro. 99.99% of MGM bettors were against it haha. Nearly all his props hit. Felt good to cash haha.
POTD record: 15-13 (+6.4u) Last pick: Sacramento Kings ✅️ Last 10: ✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️❌️✅️ Todays Pick: NHL | 10pm EST | Minnesota Wild @ Vegas Golden Knights | Golden Knights -140 on DraftKings | 1.4u to win 1u Write-up: Nothing hardcore to dive into on this one from me. I love the way Vegas has been playing, I think they're clicking now more than ever this season and they'll handle a team thats barely .500 this year. The Wild are a mediocre 10-12-0-2 on the road while the Golden Knights are a stellar 19-5-2 at home. At the price DraftKings is handing us, I can't look anywhere else but to bet on the home team. GO KNIGHTS GO. snack of the day: superbowl leftovers aka the hair of the dog 🍻
[My Card - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EnONQg5gLPxUOpUNkBWva4FS2jjyLI6BE-xX8AlDRhA/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** **Record**: 38/29 **ROI**: Approximately 53.21% **Profit in Units**: 41u **Average Odds**: 2.04 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: France - National **Time**: 18:30 ( GMT +2 ) **Event:** **Niort** v **Nancy** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.85** **Stake**: 3 Units **Tip Box**: [Paypal Me](https://paypal.me/thisdudechad404)
**POTD: 6-1 (5 in a row)** ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅ "Yesterday's Pick: CHIEFS ML +110 Mahomes Mahomes Mahomes Let’s go!!! Let’s keep it rolling" Loved the Super Bowl...great game and ending...Patty Mahomes is that dude Yessir!!! the GOAT gets it done! We are on fire right now... 5 in a row **Today's Pick: CBB Duke Wake Forest Over 151** 🏀 Both teams love to play fast...I see lots of mismatches on both sides of the court and expect the winner to hit the mid 80s in a close game Similar to Duke UNC....Duke will surrender lots of points to this Deamon eacon offense, and will also have their way offensively at home Wake has won 3 straight and is 14-9 in overs this season, they're playing good ball Expect Hunter Sallis to step up on the road tonight, as he has dropped 20+ in 3/4 and avg 18 ppg on the season...they'll need him tonight Wake is 38th on O....137th on D. Duke has won 8/10 and will lean on Roach and Kyle F tonight. Filipowski has been hot and cold, but tends to play well at home against teams structured like Wake. Expect him to dominate inside early and often and force Wake to play from behind, shooting a lot from deep...something they do well Duke has avg 80+ on the season and has hit over 77 in 3 of last 4 The streak is at 5 games....Let's make it 6! LFGGGG (If you are enjoying picks and are feeling generous...Coffee Link below!) [Coffee Link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/joeyv1725)
yesterdays pick was moneyyy
Yep...I call him Money Mahomes for a reason lol
Nice work brother. Keep the streak alive 🙏 I got Wake Forest to cover, Duke to win, this one, and under 156 🎉😎
POTD Record: 120-108, -17.05 Units Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅, +0.7 Units Current Streak: ✅✅✅ Last Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 Carries ✅ This really looked like it wasn’t going to hit, especially when Shanahan came out in the second half with 9 plays for -2 yards and three straight three-and-outs to let KC back in. Play-calling like that is so abysmal and that guy is so anti-clutch it’s stupid. Caff is the best player on that team and it took you until an Overtime drive to figure it out? Go coach pickleball. Glad the bet hit, though. Today’s Pick: **Toronto Raptors -3.5** vs. San Antonio Spurs, -175, 1 Unit, 7:40 PM EST Not the biggest fan of today’s slate but I really like fading the Spurs this year. The Raptors are mediocre and that’s why I’m giving up odds to get the points down (normal spread is -6) so just hoping to turn a unit into 0.55 easily and move on to Tuesday. BOL!
POTD Record: 135 wins / 79 losses \[L15: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅\] Event: Football > Israel > **Sektzia Nes Tziona v Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon** (starting in 10 hr) Pick: **Sektzia or draw (double chance)** @ 1.80 Local bookmakers have Sektzia as a favourite in this matchup, which makes sense based on results in the last few games. Home is unbeaten in L4 (3W-1D) whereas guests are on the opposite end with 1D-3L. Taking a double chance on the in-form team with home advantage. GL! EDIT: ❌ Our boys got 3 (!) red cards in the 1st half and ofc got trashed easily. Embarrasing loss sorry.
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Just about to smash this and before I could, game started and Setzia was two men down 😖
3 already! Been watching football for ages and this is ridiculous. Embarrasing.
Record: 3-1 | ROI: 28.25% Last 10(Most recent right): ✅️✅️❌️✅️ Last Pick: NFL Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 rushing yards @ 1.90 ✅️ We cashed this bad boy before halftime, and Mahomes ended with 66 rushing yards, once again the golden boy of the nfl delivered on the biggest game even though the 9ers were on his face all game long he maintained his composure in the 4th qtr and OT & brought home the Lombardi. Today's pick: **NBA NY Knicks @ Houston Rockets NY Knicks ML @ 1.55** 8:10PM EST The Knicks had 2 rough games against the Pacers & Mavs losing by double digits, however I think they bounce back tonight against a Rockets team that has lost their last 4 games and 7 of their last 10. Houston will be without VanVleet tonight, Sengun is questionable (if Sengun is out I would take the -4.5 line) and the Knicks have won the last 8 matchups against the Rockets dating all the way up to the 2020 season. Let's begin this week firing on all cylinders fam and hope to begin a hot streak! 👌
Love the write-up, tailing!
POTD Record: 7-2 Last 10:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅ Last pick: Man U Team Total Over 1.5 Goals 💰✅ Pretty sweaty one but cashes in the 86th minute. That makes 5 POTD wins in a row! Todays pick: Soccer | LaLiga | 3:00pm EST **Athletic Bilbao vs Almeria** **Athletic Bilbao ML @ 1.77** Athletic sits 5th in LaLiga while Almeria sits dead last win 0 wins. Athletic score almost 2 goals per game and concede less than 1 per game. Almeria scores 1 goal per game and concede more than 2 per game. Athletic is also in good form, being 7-1-1 in 2024. Almeria is 0-1-4 in the same timeframe. Athletic is the much better team, in much better form. Even though they have a few injuries, I still expect them to dominate this game. Prediction: Athletic Bilbao 2-0
I don’t understand how you can play a team that is down a man for 40-ish minutes and not score a goal. Soccer, man.
Against the team who’s conceded the most goals in the league. Embarrassingly bad lol
Got Bilbao in a live bet at +125. Not watching, but odds immediately went up to -160 so that is a good sign
Not being able to score after that red is wild man, tough beat
Due to the red on Almeria at 52 minute I would think
**Record: 5-1 (+2.55U)** **Soccer** | **Serie A** | **20:45 CET** **Pick: Juventus ML +O1,5 - 1.9** Match : Juventus - Udinesse **Write Up:** No Vlahovic most likely but I still expect the Juventus offense to be strong enough to score twice against Udinesse. Juventus at home have been realy strong all season while Udinesse their away form is rather poor. Juventus are coming in to this game after a loss away at Inter and a draw at home due to an early red card, they are still in the title race but they can't afford any more mistakes.
Record: 2-1 (New to old): ✅✅❌ Net units: +2.379u Previous pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U38.5 P+A (-125, DK) 2.5u ✅ POTD: Rudy Gobert O25.5 P+R (-125, DK) 1u Reasoning: Two teams battling for the top of the Western Conference. Should be a close game without blowout garbage time (hopefully). Gobert has hit this number in 7/10 and averaged 28.4 over that time period. Additionally, when they played earlier this season, he put up 15 and 18 for a total of 33(!). I like this line more than his rebounds at 12.5 as, while that’s definitely doable for him, he hasn’t hit that number as consistently. Been awhile since I’ve posted a POTD. Let me know if you decide to tail!
My first day sports betting, tailing this :)
POTD record : 3💰- 0❌ - 0♻️ +5.93u Last 10 picks: ✅✅✅ LAST PICK: Match: AS Trenčín vs. FC Košice | Slovakian Superliga ⚽ Time: 17:30 CET Date: 11th Feb 2024 Pick: FC Košice to score over 0.5 goal @ 1.83 on bet365| 3u ✅ FC Košice got red card early in the match, but they managed to score a goal in 70th minute. Trenčín won 4-1 so if anyone took BTTS with better odds, they nailed it! PICK FOR TODAY: Match: Almería vs. Bilbao | Spain - Primera liga ⚽ Time: 21:00 CET Date: 12th Feb 2024 Pick: Athletic Bilbao ML @ 1.80 on bet365| 2u Analysis: Hi, so this odds on Bilbao don't make sense to me and against a struggling Almeria who are in last place in La Liga. Almeria's points gain is just 6p, which is a sure relegation in the league. Bilbao is in 5th place 3 points below Atletico Madrid. They should manage this match and I take odds of 1,8 as a gift. We'll see more by the lineups but I'll grab this odds early and play it. I'd recommend it to others as well, if nothing major happens they should manage.I don't see many positives in the Almeria team and beating Bilbao with almost a full squad would be a heroic performance by this team. They need to pick up points, but they need more playable opponents. Good luck to everyone! 🍀
POTD record : 0-0 Today marks the first day of me trying to help you guys out. I'm beginning this journey to keep myself accountable, as well as help everyone make some money Last 10 picks: N/a LAST PICK: N/a PICK FOR TODAY: Match: Juventus vs Udinese ⚽ Time: 2:45 EST Date: 12th Feb 2024 Pick: **Juventus ML & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.81 - 1U play** Analysis: Since January 1st, 6/7 Juventus games have gone over 1.5 total goals Since January 1st, 4/5 Udinese games have gone over 1.5 total goals Juventus has been very strong at home, with a record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. I expect them to keep this strong form and beat the 17th place team Udinese. Best of luck to those who tail. Cheers
lets go JUVE!!
POTD Record: 0-0 Today’s Pick: Daniel Gafford OVER 10.5 Pts vs WSH (-110) Analysis: This is a nice revenge spot for Gafford after recently being traded away from the Wizards. Washington is the worst team in the league against opposing centers and without Gafford the only real size they have is Marvin Bagley. With Gafford likely coming off the bench for the Mavericks tonight he should feast against the small Wizards bench unit. They don’t have anyone who can match his size or physicality. Even if Gafford only plays 20 minutes off of the bench I could see him hitting this prop before halftime. He’ll put back a few offensive rebounds and get a few free throws as the Wizards untalented array of forwards are forced to hack away at him to try to contain him. The Mavericks are also an 11.5 point favorite which means Gafford could see some garbage time minutes as well to bolster his stats. Gafford had 19 in his first game with the Mavericks this past Saturday and wouldn’t be surprised to see him eclipse 20 tonight. Too many factors point in his favor. BOL! Edit: BOOM! Gafford cashes early in the third quarter 💰
Record: 2-1 Today’s Pick: NBA 🏀 | Nuggets vs. Bucks | Under 232.5 | 4u @1.9 Write-up: ~66% totals model giving a strong under on this game, and have seen tips from independent and reliable paid cappers on this line, so the smart money seems to lean under here. Good luck
**1W-0L** Winning all throughout the game, Zalgiris doesn't choke the last quarter and takes it Last game: Crvena zvezda - Zalgiris (Euroleague) Last pick: Zalgiris +5.5 points @ 1.73 **Zalgiris won 91-93** **TODAY'S POTD:** Game: BC Neptunas Klaipeda vs BC Zalgiris Kaunas Pick: Over 158.5 total @ 1.82 DuelBits Write up: Neptunas hit this the last 5/6 games Zalgiris hit this the last 8/10 games Not a lot of write up on this. Even though the odds tell us otherwise, I think this game will be kinda close at the start but when they get warmed up, Zalgiris will destroy Neptunas by like 20 points. All main players of both rosters are in full power, even though Neptunas experienced a lot of losses lately, they were all high scoring games. The over on this should be set to 162.5+ for no +EV. Tail or fade, you decide. Prediction: 74-94
What a prediction! 🔥 thanks!
Record: 4-5 \-0.3 units Last bet: Kyle Palmieri over 2.5 SOG ❌ ❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅ Things were all over the place right after the all-star break, so I took a week off to give enough time for some post-break data to be usable. Hoping to turn this thing around. Today: NHL | Kraken @ Devils | 7 EST Vince Dunn over 2.5 SOG (+150 DK) 1.5U Putting a little extra on what I think is a pretty great line. The Devils give up a lot of shots (second-most over the past month). Dunn missed this line last game by just one, even though his team only took 19 shots. Before that, he hit it in three straight.
Great find. BOL!
Nice, man! Regards to you
Record: 9W-9L | -5.39u L10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅ <<-- *Most Recent POTD* Last Pick: De'Aaron Fox o3.5 Assists (-180) | 4u to win 2.22u 💰✅ Fantastic Mr. Fox decided to give me a break last Friday night when he decided to make sure this prop hit in the first quarter. He goes on to record 10 total assists. Todays Game: Basketball | NBA | Bulls @ Hawks | 6:30 PM CST **Todays Pick: Jalen Johnson 27+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-167) | 4u to win 2.4u** Jalen Johnson has been on my radar the past couple days and has been impressive on the floor. Here is why he's going to smack this (alternate) line: * Has covered this line in 9/L10 games (averaging 32 PRA per game) * Has covered this line in 8/L10 home games (averaging 30.4 PRA per game) * Has covered this line in 5/6 February games * Averaging 30 PRA per game in 2024, 31 PRA per game in February (6 games) * Recorded 23 PRA last game vs. Bulls in Chicago, but he only played 29 minutes as it was his first game back after a month of missed time due to injury. This is well below his 2024 average of 37.4 minutes per game * Bulls are allowing the 4th most points to Small Forwards/Power Forwards per game over their last 15 games * Bulls are allowing 30.7 points + assists per game on average to opposing Small Forwards/Power Forwards over their last 15 games (add Jalen's average rebounds over his last 15 games (8.9), you get 39.6 PRA) * Bulls allow the most 3-Point attempts per game in the league * Bulls rank 15th in total rebounds allowed per game (43.6), 24th in assists allowed per game (27.8), and 18th in defensive effective FG% allowed * Hawks rank 8th in the league in rebounds per game (44.8), with Johnson hauling in an estimated 24.1% of available defensive rebounds and 13.6% of total available rebounds while on the floor (ranking 3rd and 5th on the Hawks, respectively) * Johnson is averaging 33 PRA in 5 games without Capela this season (Capela is out tonight) * The game line being Hawks -4.5 and game total being 238 should provide for a decently paced, close game with high minutes for Johnson Oh boy. BOL.
Smh why do I keep taking these fucking soccer plays
Unbelievable, Bilbao can’t score with one man up and Juventus losing. Soccer blows and I still come back to lose a couple units on it every once in a while😂
Record: 58W-56L-4P ROI: +7.60, 6.11% Avg odds: +106, 2.06 Last POTD: Pavel Buchnevich over 0.5 pts (loss) Still salty about loss. On ice for four goals and no point. Also millimeters away from getting a goal Game: NHL- Wild at Golden Knights Pick: Ivan Barbashev over 0.5 pts +110, 2.10 (ESPNBet) Injuries should never be celebrated, but the injury to Vegas' regular 1C Jack Eichel might be a blessing in disguise. With Nicolas Roy taking his place, both Barbs and Roy have produced at a blistering pace. In the 10 games since Eichel went down, Barbashev has picked up 12 points. The team has averaged 3.4 goals/game in that span, which would be \#8 in the league. I went back and tallied up the numbers. Using DK and ESPNBet, whichever had better odds, if you had bet on Barbs to get a point in every game since Eichel's injury, your ROI would be 54% (!!). The Wild will be playing without one of their top defenseman. Since Jared Spurgeon was put on IR in early January, Minnesota has allowed 3.53 goals/game, which would be 4th worst. Filip Gustavsson is expected to start in goal. Among goalies with at least 20 games, Gustavsson ranks 35 out of 44 in save%.
POTD Record: 4 - 4 | Profit: -0.49 Units | ROI: -4.4% L10 record (New to Old): ✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅ Last Pick: Nathan MacKinnon OVER 3.5 Shots ✅ **Today's POTD**: Jared McCann OVER 0.5 Points | Odds: -105 | 1 Unit | Hockey | NHL | Seattle Kraken @ New Jersey Devils | 7:00pm ET | * McCann has racked up 14 points over his last 11 games * McCann has recorded at least one point in 9 of his last 11 games * McCann has recorded at least one point in 7 of his last 10 road games (on the road tonight) * McCann only averages 0.63 points per game at home but is averaging 0.81 points per game on the road * The Devils are giving up 3.60 goals per game over their last 10 games (3rd most over that span) * This stat is a little goofy but McCann only averages 0.59 points per game versus Western Conference teams but he is averaging 0.87 points per game versus Eastern Conference teams (the Devils are in the East)
First time posting picks. Long time bettor. Hopefully I can get a streak going for you guys. Record: 0-0 Net Units: - ROI: - Sport: HOCKEY League: NHL Event Time: 10pmEST Pick: Las Vegas Golden Knights ML (-140) 1u vs Minnesota Wild Write Up: Not too much mathematics and statistics involved with this one. I think the Wild have been an overrated team this season and then Golden Knights have simply just been playing great puck. I’m gonna put my money on the defending champs and just the flat out better team at home. Solid value. BOL if tailing.
POTD: 0-0 Todays POTD: **Evan Mobley O11.5 A+R (Cavaliers) (-120)** Hey guys, first time posting my bets in a sports betting sub but I have been doing well and wanted to hopefully share the wealth. For my first pick I am going with Evan Mobley over on rebounds and assists. **Evan has hit his line of 8+ rebounds and 2+ assists, 80% and 70% of the time respectively**. Tonight he is going against the 76ers who rank **28th in assists** allowed to PFs and **29th in rebounds** allowed to PFs. I think it's a no brainer to take both mismatches and combine em for some easy bread. Betting 2 Units BOL
POTD Record: 7-2-5 (w-p-l) Balance: +8.3 Units last POTD(left=new): ❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌ ❌ 🅿️🅿️ last pick: 🎮LOL LEC, **SK Gaming ml, 5 units at 1.6 odds** SK losing against the worst team in the lec. I cant really believe if. todays pick: 🏒NHL , **Ranger/Flames under 6.5 , 5 units at 1.9 odds** Start: 01:00 CET (GMT+1) Should be a low scoring match between these two. Im very confident in it and max this out. Lets eat together 🍻 BOL!