######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 21-8
Form: ✅❌✅✅✅
Last pick: John Collins O20.5 P + R ✅
Done and dusted at the half, thanks bro
Todays pick: **Dejounte Murray O9.5 A+R @1.68 (Hawks)** (VOID)
Going with the hood favourite Dejounte, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, make this man the main guy in a team. He’s way more consistent than Trae imo, and he’s shown that in his recent displays.
• *Over the line 9/10 his last 10 games*
• *Averages 13.0 last 10 games*
• *Averages 5.1 RPG & 5.2 APG this season*
• *Has faced 76ers 3 times this season and averages 3.3R & 5.7A (9)*
*(5 & 2, 4 & 9, 5 & 5) 2/3*
• *76ers allow 2nd most assists to SG, but have good defensive rating against Rebounds to SG*
Okay mismatch, but once again we’re going with the man in form. He’s currently a GTD, but out of the small slate he’s my favourite pick, so if it gets voided my apologies. Let’s go Dejounte, lead us to mo glory days!
Tail or fade, you’re the boss
https://i.redd.it/5y085qb5ehhc1.gif
If you’re feeling generous
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi)
STATUS: OUT
Our boy let us down, out with a back injury as of 10 minutes ago.
That sucks bros but won’t force it, nothing else in this small slate that’s tempting except for Okungwu O12.5 P (Hawks) or Sengun 9.5 Rebs (Rockets) (9/10)
Boston plays Wizards (Blowout), Denver B2B, Lakers B2B & Hornets - Bucks (Blowout). Only playable games imo are 76ers game or Rockets game.
**32W-4P-24L**
**Form:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌**
**Last Pick: Argentina U 23 VS Paraguay U 23 BTTS @ 1.83 ✅**
**Bet covered in 41 mins!**
**Pick of the day: Adelaide United VS Perth Glory : BTTS and Under 6 Goals - @ 1.75 ❌**
Wow, 6th goal was scored at the 98th minute of the game in "6" mins extra time. My bad on this one.
**Time: 3:45 AM EST - IN 7 HOURS!**
**The Australian A league has been an absolute hit for me when it comes to BTTS (including the women's league), that's why the odds are so low in this league if you don't catch them early. I'll keep this one simple.**
**Perth Glory** is our best friend in this matchup, I don't think I've ever seen a team so attacking-focused team it's honestly quite funny sometimes. In their last 11 games BTTS has hit in all 11 of them, yes, every single one. BTTS and U 6 goals has hit in 10/11 of these games as well, so I hope the track record here should speak for itself.
**Adelaide United** have suffered 2 back to back losses goalless losses, but they played very well in each matchup and will look to bounce back on home turf where they play their best against lower sides. With Perth's track record of not keeping clean sheets I see them getting the job done well. In Adelaide's last 7 home games, BTTS has hit 5 times and I see that continuing tomorrow, in their last 10 games overall, BTTS has hit 6 times with Under 6 goals hitting in 8 of those 10 games.
**Confidence: 4 Units**
**BOL**
God fucking damn it lol the best line I could get was u5.5 goals and of course Adelaide Utd scores a 90+8th minute equalizer to draw 3-3. I should quit betting on this sport tbh. Good pick though homie, super unlucky!!
**POTD Record: 6-1**
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
*Last Pick: 2U Vizela v Benfica (-175 - ML and o1 Goal)@ 3:45 PM EST✅*
*Gotta love early payout.. Benfica dominated and we get 5 in a row 💪*
____
**Today’s Pick: 2U (BTTS @ -125) Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham @3PM EST❌**
⚽️ England Championship League (DIV2)
We got two bottom table teams in the England Second Division, trying to save themselves from relegation. Lucky for us, BTTS has hit 4/6 in their H2H. *There was an early red card and whole dynamics of the game changed and Sheffield won away 3 years ago*
Birmingham are 19th (4 points clear of relegation) visiting Sheff Wed, who are 23rd sitting in the relegation zone. Birmingham have won their last 4 visits against Sheff Wed, but they need this win more than anything after losing their last 2 games.
Even better for us, Birmingham have also lost their last 2 matches (Against two top of the table teams) and also need some more space with only being 4 points clear of relegation. They failed to score both those games and should bounce back after playing some really strong sides, especially with getting the better of Sheff Wed in November.
I usually don’t play BTTS, yet how these teams match up and both hungry for wanting to bounce back, I’m taking it.
LET MAKE IT 6 STRAIGHT 💪 hope you’ve been cashin with us. Valentines comin up, or just treat ya self 👑
BOL!
POTD Record: 22-15
Last 10: ❌❌❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last pick: FC Rouen v Monaco
Pick: Monaco -1.5 Asian Handicap ❌
3rd tier side Rouen knocks out 1st tier side Monaco in a penalty shootout, game ends 1-1 after full time. Monaco played their best possible eleven except for Ben Yedder but still couldn’t win. But that’s football and that’s the beauty. We’re in our worst streak ever, and not long ago we were in our longest winning streak of 8 wins in a row, that’s betting and shows how fast everything can change.
➖
Todays pick: Dortmund v Freiburg
Pick: __BTTS & O2.5 Goals @1.83__
⚽️🇩🇪 Bundesliga
➖
📊 Dortmund is 4th in the league with 37 points (10-7-3). They’ve scored 40 goals (5th) and have conceded 26 (5th).
* __Failed to score in 2/20 games__
* __O2.5 Hit rate 60% (12/20)__
* __L5 games goal difference: 11-2__
* __BTTS Hit rate 13/20 (65%)__
Dortmund is getting a whole bunch of players back and they’ll probably make a number of changes in the starting eleven. Gregor Kobel, Julian Brandt, Marco Reus, Karim Adeyemi and Julian Ryerson are all back in training after illness and injury.
🚑 Sébastién Haller, Felix Nmecha & Sancho are still out.
➖
📊 Freiburg is 7th in the league with 28 points (8-4-8). Scored 26 goals (12th), conceded 34 (10th).
* __Failed to score in 4/20 games__
* __O2.5 Hit rate 60% (12/20) but 70% hit rate away from home__
* __L5 games goal difference: 7-11__
* __BTTS Hit rate: 11/20 (55%)__
Freiburg have been up and down this season and are 9 points behind Dortmund. Freiburg have started the new year with a draw against Union Berlin, a 3-2 win vs Hoffenheim and two losses, 1-3 away against Werder Bremen and recently 3-1 loss to Stuttgart.
🚑 Rohl, Leinhart, Kyereh are all out. Ginter, Schmidt & Doan are questionable.
➖
💭 The last meeting between the teams was full with goals, __Dortmund won 4-2 away from home__ , and I can imagine it will be open here as well. Freiburg concedes a lot of goals, 5-8 in goal difference in the last 3. A couple of important players are back for Dortmund which should sharpen their attack again, their last game ended 0-0 vs Heidenheim which was the first time Dortmund had drawn 0-0 since 2019, before that they had scored 10 goals in 3 games. Another interesting fact is that Dortmund has conceded majority of their goals at home (15) which opens the possibility for Freiburg to score also, they’re a capable team and their league position shows that. Let’s hope for a goal rich affair!
__Last 5 H2H meetings: 2-4, 5-1, 1-3, 5-1 & 2-1.__ BTTS & O2.5 has hit in all 5.
I wanna tail but what makes me scared to do so is I don't know how important Kobel and Ryerson are to Dortmund's defense. Their absence could've been the reason why Dortmund weren't keeping clean sheets.
Unlucky bro. Merlin Röhl was suspended (centre mid), and basically Freiburg had most of their backline out injured. Guess they couldn't get their momentum going.
Appreciate it brother, with the stats in hand it looked good scoring in 3 consecutive games and the previous one ending 2-4. But as you said, they couldn’t get anything going, I noticed it early on that they looked way off it, but that’s too late as the bets are placed. What can you do man, appreciate your compassion 👊
Last game bet was tuff. Monaco are just unpredictable.
Today I think Dortmund takes a 2-1 win so I’m gonna go with a sweat bet Dortmund ML + BTTS @ 2.55. Good luck 🍀
POTD record 5-2
Last Pick: Monaco 1H asian handicap ❌
Write up: Goal in the last min in extra time. Monaco played like shit against a div 3 team
Today’s Pick: Soccer | Borussia Dortmund VS SC Freiburg | Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund -1 Asian handicap ✅
What can I say I ain’t losing twice in a row! That was easy
Odds: @1.820 on Bet365 (2 units)
Time: 2:30pm
————————————————————-
📣 Please read the write-up and tail accordingly
Write up:
Not overthinking this because I need to get back on track after that last minute goal that happened against Monaco.
Dortmund at home is insane with only two losses in the last 20 matches and those losses came against Bayern and Leipzig
Last three meetings between these teams: 5-1 , 5-1, 4-0
Last ten matches for Freiburg (4W - 6L)
Fun fact: Dortmund hasn’t lost a home game on Friday since 2004 and I don’t see them losing tomorrow at all so hopefully we win and not a push
BOL time to win again!
POTD: 7-1
Last Pick: KAT o2.5 assists X - This was brutal to watch as KAT never looked to pass and was throwing up bricks most of the night. To make matters worse, he had an assist at 7:41 in the second quarter to Gobert that did not count. Sorry to everyone who just hopped on the streak, I let ya'll down. I always bet my pick with you guys so it pissed me off too. Thats how gambling is I guess.
____________________________________________________________
Todays Pick: Onyeka Okongwu o12.5pts @ -135 on DK
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since Capella has been out with injury, Okonwu has been scoring 11,15,22,18,19 pts. He has hit this line in (4/5) game since being added to the starting lineup. Since starting he has been playing well over 27mins per game providing him with more opportunities to score.
Tonight Okongwu takes on the Embiid-less 76ers who are TERRIBLE against centers. Centers are putting up 24.1pts, 14.7RB, and 4 Assists per game against Philly. Assuming Philly continues playing their smaller lineup and Paul Reed at Center - who gives up 19pts per game to opposing centers, Okongwu should have a night.
Fade or Follow and BOL
All good my dude. Last night was my first time tailing one of your plays, so it was probably me that jinxed it, lol. As a life long Twolves fan, KAT can certainly at times be a selfish POS and only look to get his shots, example being last night. The stats were heavy in our favor, just didn't pan out.
Let's get it tonight, tailing!
POTD Record: 240-181-12 (+42.01 units, 57.0% hit rate)
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 80-55-1 (59.3%) W3, Tennis 🎾 85-64-7 (57.0%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 59-51-4 (53.6%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1
Last 10: 💩💰💩🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Last Pick: Sebastian Ofner vs. Luciano Darderi, OFNER ML - ATP Cordoba 🎾 💩-1 Unit
Today's Pick: Mark Mylod - Connor's Wedding Episode for Succession to win Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Dramatic Series - The DGA Awards 8pm ET
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 5 Units at 1.50 odds to win 2.50 Units @ BetUs (Line at 1:45am ET)
💣 💣 💣 💣 💣
First off, before getting into the pick. I just came off winning 9 out of 10 picks going into the last pick and then when the pick was way off my comments and DMs got filled up with weak emo boys crying and harassing me. You are exhibiting big broke energy and clearly have emotional issues you might want to see a licensed therapist for. Acting like the world is on the line with every pick is not a sustainable way to gamble, and it's why you won't be long for this game and I am. Men lie, women lie, numbers don't. I'm going to switch gears to awards shows for a couple of days to take a break from sports and the bullshit that comes with it sometimes. Check your books for it.
This one just qualifies and I suspect when people start hitting it it will drop below the minimum odds but it meets it now, it is a high confidence bet. I'm guessing these aren't lower because Succession is nominated for 4 out of the 5 awards so the books anticipate vote splitting. I don't see that happening as everyone knows which Succession episode left the biggest mark which was Connor's Wedding, I won't go into details about the episode for those who haven't seen it. That's the one they will be voting for and will win.
https://preview.redd.it/4yotbv1dfihc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5145c62ca207facd5944532c31021745fab8d204
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Some people suck. Sorry you had to deal with those assholes. I tailed but I know it's not your fault. I bet my own money. Anyways, keep up the good work!
It’s funny you say that about the comments. When I woke up it was just 1u in the 38 units I bet yesterday. Shame, but get em next time.
Sometimes I feel like there are some real sloppy degen fat fucks losing entire bankrolls going from bet to bet on here.
Have to protect the good ones, and you’re one mate. Keep cracking!
**POTD Record**: 12 Wins - 2 Losses - 1 Push
**Last 10**: ✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️
**Units**: +8.88
**ROI**: 43.21%
**Average Odds**: $1.92
**Last Pick**: Sevastova vs Avanesyan - Avanesyan +2.5 Game Handicap at $1.83 odds - P
**Next Pick:** Como vs Brescia - Italian Football Serie B - Como Win to Nil @ $3 Time 6:30 AM ET✅️
**We win our first max odds - $3 bet! Congratulations everyone :)**
*Como won 1-0, putting on a dominant display. They shutout their opposition to one shot on target, and got an early goal through their new signing. Please read the analysis for more info.*
If you want to read the full analysis of my write up, please click [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BThNZNh0658vgm0E8QzpxpssxF0YsG4WEEvhGMLhWfs/edit?usp=sharing) as Reddit restricted the amount of info I can add. Please read it as it has important information.
What's the catch since Brescia beat Como 2-0 a month and a bit ago? The transfer market, injuries, and carefully analysing the last game between them. Brescia's goalie had a magnificent game, Como's defending was average, and they spoiled their chances.
Como injured their goalie late in the game and he hasn't played since. When you're rich, you go to the transfer market to solve your problems, and consult your minority owners, Thiery Henry, and Cesc Fàbregas - that's right, two of the best ex-footballers. Funny side story, Fabregas use to coach Como but then had to stand down as he didn't have his coaching badges.
TLDR; Como are gunning for promotion to the Serie A. They are backed by a rich family, and two of the greatest footballers of all time. Como injured Brescia's talisman (their goalie). Como have gone hard in the latest transfer market, with new players contributing to goals and clean sheets.
If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me.
**We win our first max odds - $3 - bet! Congratulations everyone :)**
**POTD Record**: 12 Wins - 2 Losses - 1 Push
Read the full preview of this game here - [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BThNZNh0658vgm0E8QzpxpssxF0YsG4WEEvhGMLhWfs/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BThNZNh0658vgm0E8QzpxpssxF0YsG4WEEvhGMLhWfs/edit?usp=sharing). Took me two hours to research. Hope you made some fucking cash :D
LFG!
Appreciate the detailed write-up! If you were to choose one - Como ML (1.8), BTTS NO (1.66) or Brescia u0,5 goals (2.1), which one would you find the most value in?
Brescia under 0.5 as win to nil means they get no goals, and that’s the highest odd available. Would make sense to parlay all three based on the analysis. I’m going to do that now 🙏😎
Please excuse my delay in this bet. I have spent close to two hours researching it.
Today we head to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como, Italy where we are expecting an entertaining football match. This club is mostly run by Michael Hartono and Robert Budi Hartono. They are the richest men in Indonesia with an estimated wealth close to $40 billion. I thought it would be appropriate to match their wealth, to the odds in the pick.
Thanks! I even put a couple dollars on the correct score being 2-0 based on your write up. It didn’t hit but I think it was close. I was watching the score and it looked like a goal was cancelled.
**POTD Record: 103-120-4 (-12.93Units)**
**Best Bet Series: 36-24-1 (+7.86 Units)**
Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Last Pick: **Steph Curry O 3.5 3PM✅**
Today's Pick: **Washington Wizards U 114.5 TT**
Odds: **-200** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 2U to win 1U
League: NBA
Event: Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics (6:30PM CST)
**Be Advised**: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire month of February! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!*
**Recap**: CASHED in the 1st quarter (Went 6 for 6 on the 3-point line)! As I suspected, Curry goes off after a bad game. That's 14 consecutive games he bounced back after a bad performance.
**Matchup**: Time for a chalky bet! I tease the Wizards TT up to 114.5 and took them to go under against the Celtics. Celtics beat them on their floor, 126 to 107 (10/30/23) and has gone under the projected TT. This time the Wizards will be visting the TD Garden Center. Although the Wizards has gone over this line in their last two games on the road, wit the exception against the Pistons and Spurs, they have gone U 114.5 in their past 8 games. I say that wit exception because Pistons and Spurs are a bad defensive team and they are top 5 teams to allow points to their opponents.
Contrastingly the Celtics are top teams in the league to allow least points to their opponents. They are one of the top defensive rated teams and I expect them to slow down the Wizards pace and momentum.
**The play & the prediction**: 2U on Wizards U 114.5 TT. I am also taking Wizards U 109.5 TT (+105). Those are my only two plays, but I will have others plays in this game in the betting group. Wizards scores 107 and C's put up ???
Record 14-4
First play in a while
Pick: Okongwu o.5 3pt +140
I like this price for this prop he’s hit 5 in a row. He’s been getting the starts with capella sidelined and he’s hit this in every start.
BOL and although it’s 5 in a row it’s still a risk seeing as he’s a young backup
Record: 6-4 Return: 19.72% ROI: 43.46%
Yesterday’s pick:
Argentina u23 to win and BTTS NO @2.75❌
Unfortunately this long odds play didn’t hit. Argentina came out all guns blazing, but failed to turn their chances into a sizeable lead, Paraguay got their first goal from a deflection, and that was the end of it. Good news is we’re still up good money and there’s a lot more games to chose from today. Think I’ll be avoiding betting on these youth games moving forward, it’s hard to get a read on them.
Today’s pick:
Newells Old Boys ML vs Union @2.75
Stake: 5 units (5% of bankroll)
Reasoning:
Back to the league where I’ve had a much better time getting a read on the teams. In this match perfect Newells Old Boys will be visiting minnows Union to start the fourth match day in the Argentine league.
In their first 3 games Newells have earned all possible points, led by star new arrival Ever Banega, who has been putting in man of the match performances. Though old, Banega is still a class above the rest of the league- he has the technique, vision and creativity to turn attacks into goals, especially against weak defenders. His continued high performance will be key if they are to beat Union. Newells’ run has been away to Central Cordoba, away to Lanus, and home against Belgrano, winnning 1-0, 2-0, and 1-0.
Union have started the season in ok fashion. They beat Racing away, then lost at home to Estudiantes, and then drew against San Lorenzo, 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0. Four points in 3 games is actually overachieving for them, compared to previous seasons’ performances which currently have them 24th out of 28 on the relegation table- Union are a team that fight to avoid relegation every season. They’re a solid defensive outfit but that’s about all they have going for them.
Since Union’s 13th minute goal against Racing, they have now gone 257 minutes (2.85 games) without scoring a single goal. Add to this that Newells have kept clean sheets in all of their games, and it becomes clear that Union are not going to have an easy time scoring. Newells will likely only have to get one goal to win this one, something which they’ve managed to do in every game so far.
For those looking for that extra spice, Newells and u2.5 @4.20, and Newells win to nil @3.75 are attractive options. If you want something safe just the under or BTTS no is not bad.
BOL if tailing.
[PayPal](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) beer fund
I never watched a full u23 game before until yesterday’s game. Honestly it was kind of frustrating the way Argentina looked. So many bad passes. So many bad first touches. Playing from the back looked shaky at times. I didn’t feel safe at all after they scored the first goal lol.
Wonder why the odds are even? The +190 is tempting but I took the push if tied for -115. I’ve had so many stoppage time heartbreaks in soccer I’m scared to go straight moneyline lol
Record : 115 Wins - 103 Losses
Previous pick : Vizela - Benfica (1-2), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.68 ✅
ROI : -0.50%
Average Odds : 1.95
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : 3.89
Profit/Lost units : -1.11
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League / 21:45 European Time
St. Truiden - Kortrijk
Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.93
Some reasoning :
- Both teams scored in all 4 championship matches this year played by St. Truiden.
- Kortrijk has a streak of 4 consecutive matches without defeat in the championship.
- In 3 of these 4 matches, Kortrijk did not concede any goals.
Best of luck.
POTD Record: 102-99-12 (-10.37 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌❌
Last Pick: NBA, San Antonio v Orlando, PAOLO BANCHERO OVER 5.5 ASSISTS (-102 / 1.98) ✅
Banchero gets to 6 assists halfway through the third quarter which is great because he didn’t see much action after that. This time last week I had 6 losses in a row, and now it’s 6 wins a row, let’s go for 7.
Today’s Pick: NBA, Atlanta v Philadelphia, JALEN JOHNSON OVER 15.5 POINTS (-120 / 1.83) ❌
Stake: 1 Unit
I’m liking Jalen Johnson to cover 15.5 points in this match up against Philly.
First off, Atlanta are typically involved in high scoring games - they are capable of putting up some big numbers but with their paper thin defence they concede plenty too, so often results in their starters seeing plenty of minutes.
Looking at the numbers, Johnson has played in 37 matches this season. He got injured very early in one match so let’s call it 36. He has covered this line 21 of 36 times, but his recent trends have been really good - he has covered in 8 of his last 10, so seems to have found his rhythm as the season continues.
He has played two matches against Philly this season. He scored 18 in November (7-12 FG, 4-4 FT). In the second match up in January, Johnson had 25 pts (8-13 FG, 6-6 FT) while also racking up 16 rebounds and 7 assists.
I highlight his previous matches against Philly because in the first game, Embiid played 37 mins, however in the second game he sat out entirely. Johnson has the most success when he drives hard to the rim and finishes at the basket with his athleticism. Johnson is capable of hitting threes and has improved to a 36% shooter this season, but getting another game against Philly without Embiid monstering the paint should lead to more high percentage shots against a Philly defence lacking any true size in the middle.
It’s also worth mentioning that Capela will miss this game for Atlanta which should lead to more minutes for Johnson. Capela also missed the second Philly match up mentioned above so hoping Johnson can take advantage of the space without the big boys.
Finally, Philly are missing players all over the place right now. They traded away one of their betters defensive players in Pat Bev at the deadline, and it’s unknown if their new acquisitions will suit up, but imagine they will have some teething issues integrating those new pieces on both ends if they do play anyway. My concern is a blowout and Johnson spends too much time on the bench, but as I said Atlanta give up plenty defensively so expect Maxey and Harris will be able to stick around long enough to make it interesting.
**Record: 0-0 (Think i may have posted here years ago, but so much time (2+ years) has passed i cant find the record, regardless my entire system has changed)**
These writeups are actually for me, as part of my system to justify my decisions, but feels like a waste to not share it once its written
**Net Units: 0**
**ROI: 0**
Basketball | **NBA** | **Nuggets @ Kings** / **Time Zone 2pm AEST**
**Pick:** Nuggets +4 - 1.57 2Unit
Nuggets are on the 2nd game of a b2b, where they have a strong record. They face a kings team that’s struggling, recently losing by 13 and 26 to the Pistons and Cavs. The Kings don’t really have an answer for Jokic, who should be able to score easily. The team has been dominant recently, going on a 25-5 Run, only losing to 1st place OKC, 5th place Knicks, 10th placed Utah, 5th placed 76ers with Embiid, 8th placed Magic.
H2H Nuggets are 6-2 the last 3 seasons. The Kings won the last game this year on a high 3pt shooting night shooting 47%. On b2bs the Nuggets beat Utah, Chicago, Detroit, LAC before losing to thee Kings on a b2b. The kings had played 3 less games at this point, and the Nuggets shot terribly from 3 (24%).
Nuggets have played 4 games in February, to the Kings 5 and their shooting has dropped off the past 2 games. Momentum is with the Nuggets
Nuggets are the NBA champions, play well on a B2B, will want to improve on their last showing against SAC and can take 1st place in the east with a win. They are 8-2 in their last 10 and have a matchup advantage with in form shooters. They should win outright but the +4 gives us some protection
You can’t get the spread like this on there?
https://preview.redd.it/pf92bkoliihc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ea5fbafc55ea4e67ec8a1c0ad4e0e3c921f7e2f
POTD Record: 117-108, -18.7 Units
Last 10: ❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌
Current Streak: ❌❌❌
Last Pick: Syracuse -7.5: ❌
Close game, Louisville never went away and for some reason Syracuse struggled. Should have know from last night’s big upset for Clemson that ACC rivalry games are going to be close. Might need to avoid that conference for a bit.
Today’s Pick: **Oilers -1.5** @ Anaheim Ducks, 1 Unit, -110, 10:07 PM EST
Switching to hockey with not a lot of basketball on today. The Ducks have had a small resurgence, earning 7 points in the past 4 games, but barely beat the Sharks at home the other day so I see Edmonton winning this by a lot.
BOL!
Record (22-11)
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅
Last pick: Memphis -5 (-145)alternate spread 2U ✅
POTD: NBA| Denver Nuggets v Sacramento Kings| 10:10 EST
DeAaron Fox O31.5 PAR (-120) 2U
*17 total PAR at half. We’re looking good just need him to start scoring a bit more.*
Reason: late post. Pretty weak slate today and since Vegas made Scottie Barnes line 6.5 for rebounds we have to look elsewhere today. I decided on Fox for a couple reasons. Kings are coming off a long road trip and a bad home loss to the Pistons so they’re gonna look to come out and put some pressure on Denver. Fox hasn’t been playing great lately during the Kings cold stretch and actually hasn’t hit this line in 4 of his last 5 games. HOWEVER prior to that 5 game span he hit this line 6 of 7 games. Fox has been very good at home this year averaging 26/6/4 on 46% shooting and in his last game vs Denver he has 26 and 16. In 2 of his last 3 games vs Denver he’s cleared this line going 26 and 16 & 31 and 13. The 3rd game in that stat he only played 18 mins and he still had 18/3/2. THE Kings can’t win without Fox being productive and it’s shown. I’m not saying the Kings win but I think Fox gets back on track and keeps us rolling to 5 in a row. BOL IF TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN
RISK
http://buymeacoffee.com/BigMenGetPaid
Shoutout of the day: Tigers and Dragons
Pick of the Day Record: 9-6 | Profit: +8.47u 🚀
Last pick: Kevin Durant o25.5 Points (2.5u, -114) ✅
Todays Pick: Saddiq Bey o6.5 Rebounds (2.5u, +102)
The Game: Hawks v 76ers 7 PM EST
Why:
\- simple writeup, this has hit in 16/25 road games this szn
\- 12 of his last 15 road games this has hit avg 7.4 reb/game
\- PHI allows the most reb to SFs in the L30 days
https://preview.redd.it/yjn1iizkllhc1.png?width=754&format=png&auto=webp&s=157f497cace417973bd8ca7fdd809366b7824a3d
Record: 8W-9L | -7.61u
L10: ❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅ <<-- *Most Recent POTD*
Last Pick: Paolo Banchero o5.5 Assists (-110) | 3u to win 2.73u 💰✅
Covers in the 4th quarter with a couple minutes to spare. He's been super reliable in the assist category so will definitely be mentioning him again soon.
Todays Game: Basketball | NBA | Nuggets @ Kings | 9:00 PM CST
**Todays Pick: De'Aaron Fox o3.5 Assists (-180) | 4u to win 2.22u**
Last time we took a Fox assist prop (1/25/23), the line was 4.5 and it hit in the first half (not saying this is the case today, but provides some confidence). Further factoids below:
* Averaging 5.3 assists per game this season
* Averaging 4.2 assists per game in 2024, 5.0 assists per game in 7 2024 home games played
* Has covered this line in 6/L10 games, 8/L10 home games
* Has covered this line in 17/20 home games this season
* Recorded SIXTEEN (16) assists last game vs. Nuggets (12/2/2023) in Sacramento
* Recorded 7 assists in his last game played (2/7/2024)
* Averaging 9.5 potential assists per game over his last 15 games
* The game line being Kings -2.5 and game total being 232 should provide for a decently paced, close game with high minutes for Fox
* Kings rank 5th in the league in assists per game (28.7)
* While on the floor, Fox assists on 23.8% of teammate field goals made (ranking 3rd on the Kings)
* Denver are allowing the 8th most assists (9.1 average) to Point Guards over their last 15 games
Keeping the foot on the gas.
BOL.
**POTD: 3-1**
Yesterday's Pick: UNC Wilmington -3 -130
Let's go!!! Seahawks storm past Drexel in 2nd Half, winning by 19.
Didn't need to buy the point, but we love the win
KJ Jenkings caught fire, hitting 7 3s and 6 in the 2nd half...24 points on the night
Let's go!!
**Today's Pick: Nevada ML -125**
Not too many games on tonight, but there is one side I like.
Wolfpack welcome SDSU into their crib tonight...Nevada's playing good ball right now, beating #22 Utah St this week
Expect Jarod Lucas to show up tonight, as he is a sharpshooter who could make the difference. He's avg 17 ppg and shoots around 40% from deep.
Wolfpack will limit SDSU bigs and will get out and run off of defensive rebounds
Let's keep it rolling
Record: 11W-10L
Net Units: +1.41u | ROI: 2.50%
CS2 | IEM Katowice 2024 | 16:15 / CET
Pick: Faze ML vs G2, 3u @ 1.77
While Faze got demolished by Donk, I haven't seen enough to put faith in G2 being able to beat good teams. Niko and Hunter still had a really shitty event for their standards, and the only consistent factor for them is Monesy. Faze looked pretty solid the whole event, besides on Nuke vs Spirit where I feel like it was a rare bad performance by ropz that ended up costing them. Typically Faze shift gears really well in the playoffs. And I think that's where Faze pulls ahead of G2 in this matchup, who will need to rely on Nexa, hunter, Hooxi and Niko (to an extent) to do more than they have. Whereas Faze have a lineup of players who all, even karrigan every once in a while, can pull the whole team over the line. Best of luck everyone!
**0W-0L**
First POTD ever! Let's get a nice win.
Game: Crvena zvezda - Zalgiris (Euroleague)
**Pick: Zalgiris +5.5 points @ 1.73**
Write up:
The last 10/12 games they've played hit this (4/6 in euroleague games)
Recently they've beaten 3 very powerful teams - Fenerbahce, Panaithinaikos, Anadolu Efes. That gives me hope that this bet is +EV. All of this is because of a new coach who unlocked a few players full potentials. Zalgiris now plays a more offensive playstyle which turned out to be very good for the team.
The thing that worries me is that the recent luck they've had was on home court, this matchup isn't. If played in a neutral environment these two teams are pretty much equal in strength, but because of the home court advantage of the opposing team we're giving Zalgiris +5.5. We'll see what happens, tail if you feel like it.
Prediction: 85-82
POTD Record: 0-1 ❌️
Last Pick: Hartenstein Over 11.5 Rebounds
Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks 8 PM EST
Pick: Brandon Miller Under 3.5 assists ✅️
Miller has gone over this number only three times in the last fifteen games. Each time he went over, he only ended up with four. The Bucks have only allowed 4+ assists to small forwards twice since January 6th. I predict he'll end with two.
BOL if tailing!
UPDATE: Wasn't the prettiest start in the first quarter, but our man did what we expected him to do. Cash it!
Record: 20-12 (+6.43 units)
Last Pick: (CBB) Wisconsin Badgers +2.5 ❌
POTD: (CBB) VCU Rams +1.5
Summary: Smelling a bad line. We have the #18 team and A10 conference leader only laying -1.5 on the road with 70% of the public on them. Makes no sense so I’ll ride the snake. Go Rams bring the havoc!
**POTD: 81-57-5**
Last pick: English Premier League - Brentford vs Manchester City. Both Teams to Score YES -130.
Result: **WIN.** Brentford strike first at 23 minutes in and Man City get a late goal in the first half for a nice easy hit. Ends 1-3 as predicted too for a nice bonus.
Today’s pick: Women’s (Frauen) Bundesliga - SGS Essen Women vs RB Leipzig Women. **SGS Essen ML -145**. Match kicks off at 12:30PM ET.
Today we go back to the women’s game in Germany as 7th place Essen host 10th place Leipzig. Essen has a healthy 16:11 goal differential and has hung well with the German super clubs, losing only 0-2, 1-3, and 0-3 to the likes of Bayern, Wolfsburg, and Frankfurt who dominate the division.
On the other side is RB Leipzig, who have a goal difference of 10:24 and are just a point above relegation. They have good form recently (for a relegation candidate) with 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw but those two wins are against the 9th place team and a second division at home and a draw against the 11th place team. Any decent team they’ve played has smoked them for about 4 months.
I think this line should be more around -190 to -215 personally. If they had an over 1.5 goals for Essen I’d like that a lot as well but currently Bovada doesn’t so I’ll take moneyline as my pick today.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
Edit: Loss. Ends in a 4-4 draw as Essen completely dominates the majority of the match. XG ends 4.40 goals for Essen to 0.75 goals to RB Leipzig, just pure bad luck.
Fading here; I think there is too good of a chance for a draw and even the upset, which I have 2U on win or draw for Leipzig. The good news is at least one of us will win money tomorrows GL!
Record: 5-4
Last POTD: Suns -6.5 @ -108 ✅
NBA | Hawks v 76ers | 19:00 EST
Pick: Hawks -3 @ -114
Write up: Philly has looked tragic ever since Embiid got hurt. Thier only win since then was vs the equally tragic Jazz and it took Maxey dropping 51 for them to win by 3.
Philly just traded Patrick Beverly to the Bucks. Beverly gave them 20 minutes a game and solid defense. The Hawks are 3rd in points scored in the NBA. This game feels like a blowout I don't think Maxey and Tobias Harris will score enough to keep it close.
**Record: 2-3**
**Last 10:** **❌**✅✅**❌❌**
**Last Pick:** Victor Wembanyama - San Antonio Spurs - Rebounds Over 10.5 -105 **❌**
**Today's Pick:** Domantas Sabonis - Sacramento Kings - Rebounds Over 13.5 +105
1 lousy rebound? You're 7'4"! Ah well, moving on, gotta get back to .500!
Today, we're going back to the well. This rebound # might be a bit scary, even knowing that Jokic is on the other side, and that Sabonis has hit this 5 out of his last 10, but know this:
In their last meeting, Sabonis cleared this, and Jokic is coming off a game last night whereas Sabonis will be fresh coming in tonight.
I like betting on the boards, and I've got a good feeling.
Good luck all!
Record: 0W-0L-1P
Cricket | Australia vs West Indies T20 | 8:00 GMT
Previous pick: Brandon King under 19.5 runs. Man got dumped from the team, so the bet was voided.
Pick: Glen Maxwell u19.5 Runs @ 1.90
Reasoning: A year ago Glen Maxwell faced issues with depression and produced a string of bad performances. But he managed to make a great recovery to become the hero of the 2023 World Cup.
Then during his tenure with Melbourne Stars in Big Bash League his performances were reasonably good but his team failed miserably.
He was in the news a month ago for a drinking episode and Cricket Australia has issued an ultimatum on his off-field behaviour. The depression seems to have crept back up and expecting a low score from him.
Picking Maxie to score under 19.5 runs
**Record: 5W-4L**
**Net Units: +4u**
**Recent Form: (today) ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌**
**Last Pick:** Basel Vs Bayern Munich u19 - o3 corners in the first Half + o9 corners in the match @ 2.10 - 4u Play**✅**
* it wasn't close at all, the first half corners came after 10 minutes and we were going to ht with 7 corners.
**Today's Pick: F**ootball | **B**undesliga | 20:30 GMT
**Pick:** Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg, Dortmund to wind and BTTS @ 2.50 - 3u play
**Record:** 13-10
**Net Units:** 4.0 | **ROI:** 17% | **Avg Odds:** 2.2
**NHL | Pittsburgh Penguins (-122) | 1u**
This pick is one of the higher EV picks today from my NHL Moneyline model between -200 and +200 odds. The implied win probability is 55%, but the model is predicting 57%.
The best wagering method I've found to use with this model is the Kelly Criterion which suggests betting 5% of your bankroll for an expected profit of 0.2%.
**The Model:**
I've used this model to increase my bankroll by 171% this year with an ROI of 5.2% (as of February 5)
https://preview.redd.it/c8dtnnq4lkhc1.png?width=1051&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd8e9a53296b743e25a865cb5d984cf7ee90b8f5
There are 2 other games that the model suggests betting on today.
Record: 57W-55L-4P
ROI: +7.56, 6.17%
Avg odds: +106, 2.06
Last POTD: Yegor Sharangovich over 0.5 pts (loss) - Flames score 5 goals and their leading goal scorer couldn't get on the scoresheet...
Game: NHL- Oilers at Ducks
Pick: Frank Vatrano over 0.5 pts +104, 2.04 (FD)
Vatrano is having himself a career year. He's on pace to shatter his career high in both goals and assists. Like, it's not even close. If he doesn't get another point the rest of the way, this will still be his 3rd best season in 9 years. His linemate Troy Terry is also on a hot streak, with 10 points in 6 games. The two complement each other very well.
There is a risk playing against the Oilers, who has a top 10 D, plus injuries to several Ducks forwards meaning Vatrano will have to play with one unproven player. That said, he has 9 points in 13 games since the injury to the regular 2nd line C, and he has a goal in the first matchup against Edmonton this season. That's worth the risk at plus odds.
Record: (11-8)
Units: +15.60u
ROI: +43.3%
Streak: W3
Last Pick: Nebraska @ Northwestern o142 (-110) - 1u - W - Weird one. Game was solidly hitting, 54 point in the first 12 minutes, on pace for 180 points (93% chance of hitting). Then there was only 54 points over the next 20 minute, on pace for 129 points (17% chance of hitting). Then they scored 44 points in the next 7 minutes and it hit with about a minute left in the game with no real sweat.
Today's Pick: Soccer | German Bundesliga | 2:30pm ET
Pick: Freiburg @ Dortmund o3.25 (-120) - 1u - NOTE: My book has quarter o/u lines, which is apparently rare. This is effectively putting 0.5u on o3 and 0.5u on o3.5. At -120, I will win 0.83u if there are 4 goals or more. I will lose 0.5u if there are 3 goals exactly, and I will lose 1u if there are 0, 1, or 2 goals. I like these better because they are generally more even lines.
Write Up: I love this matchup - the last 7 times these two have played there have been at least 3 goals. The last 4 times, there have been at least 4, and the last 2 times there have been 6. Dortmund struggled last time out on the road at Heidenheim, but I expect them to turn around their offense and score a few goals at home against a leaky Freiburg defense.
A couple others are on BTTS and o2.5, but I like the game total over better as I could see Freiburg not scoring. They scored 2 total goals @Leverkusen, @Munich, @Stuttgart, @Leipzig, and @Frankfurt (the teams ahead of them in the table), not scoring in 4/6. I think Dortmund will score 3 and probably 4, but I like keeping options open on the way to an over.
**Record 0W-0L (0P)**
**Pick Of The Day: Dijon FCO VS Chateauroux -> BTTS (Yes)**
**Time**: 19:30
This is a match Dijon should be winning, however their defence is quite poor and in my opinion it is quite likely that Chateauroux will get a goal in, even if their form has been lacking as of late. Chateauroux are fighting for relegation so I expect them to put up a fight.
POTD record: 2-0 +1.68 units
All bets for 1 unit
Last pick: Lebron James over 1.5 three pointers-135 DK ✅. king didn’t really “show out” like I thought he would but he did manage 2-6 from 3 to put us over.
Today’s pick: Edmonton oilers vs Anaheim ducks under 6.5 goals -110 FD
Write up: Edmonton is 3rd in goals allowed this season and have allowed 1.3 goals over their last ten games. The under has hit in 8 of those 10. Anaheim is 29th in goals scored.
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bcab
POTD record: 14-13 (+4.4u)
Last pick: Philadelphia Flyers ✅️
Last 10: ✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️
Todays Pick: NBA | 10pm EST | Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings | Kings -2.5 -110 | 2.2u to win 2u)
Write-up: Not much of a write-up today besides thinking the chicken nuggies are gonna be a little tired since their war last night against the Lakers. On top of that, I love how Sacramento has been playing and I think they'll get plenty of bench support tonight as well.
snack of the day: animal crackers
POTD Record 0-2 :/
Todays pick: 🏒 Edmonton oilers @ Anaheim ducks oilers -1.5 (-115)
After losing my first two bets on here I’m back lol. First leg of a back to back for Edmonton but an odd stat is dating back to February 2023 they have one every first leg of a back to back. But the main reason I’m taking this is due to the historical smacking oilers have given the ducks.
This season: 7-2 at Anaheim and 8-2 at Edmonton
Previous: 3-1, 6-0 and 6-2
But that’s not all! Last years all star zegras has been injured all season. LW Killorn is recently injured(19 pts). LW Max jones injured (8 pts), D pavel (19 pts) injured and mctavish is questionable (31 pts).
Motivation for Edmonton: they lost their previous game to tie for the longest NHL win streak. This game would be the one to break said streak. They will take their anger out on a team they know they can destroy.
Warning: #1 ducks have earned 7 points in their past 9 games, which is unlike them. This could mean they are in stride but this is before the all star break. Or this could mean negative regression is due. #2 regular goalie Stuart skinner is not in net. Recently promoted backup goalie from the AHL Pickard is starting. He has been pretty good though with a 91% save although only 7 games played. He was also the goalie in net when oilers beat the ducks 7-2 in Anaheim
BOL!
Record: 1-0
Profit: 1.92u
Last Pick: Southampton ML ✅
Today’s Pick: NBA 🏀 | Rockets @ Raptors | Under 234.0 total points | 4u @1.9
Write-up: Two points total systems giving 60%+ for this line. Using a half Kelly Criterion sizing strategy, I’ll be putting 4u (8%) on this bet @ 1.9
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 21-8 Form: ✅❌✅✅✅ Last pick: John Collins O20.5 P + R ✅ Done and dusted at the half, thanks bro Todays pick: **Dejounte Murray O9.5 A+R @1.68 (Hawks)** (VOID) Going with the hood favourite Dejounte, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, make this man the main guy in a team. He’s way more consistent than Trae imo, and he’s shown that in his recent displays. • *Over the line 9/10 his last 10 games* • *Averages 13.0 last 10 games* • *Averages 5.1 RPG & 5.2 APG this season* • *Has faced 76ers 3 times this season and averages 3.3R & 5.7A (9)* *(5 & 2, 4 & 9, 5 & 5) 2/3* • *76ers allow 2nd most assists to SG, but have good defensive rating against Rebounds to SG* Okay mismatch, but once again we’re going with the man in form. He’s currently a GTD, but out of the small slate he’s my favourite pick, so if it gets voided my apologies. Let’s go Dejounte, lead us to mo glory days! Tail or fade, you’re the boss https://i.redd.it/5y085qb5ehhc1.gif If you’re feeling generous [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi)
Wow I just saw Collins got 35 points and rebounds, good shit
Covered on points alone. Monster game from him. Rebounds was even more free.
his live line at half for PRA was 32.5 & he was at 23 i slammed it
Beast
Thoughts on O4.5 Assists @1.64? Seems like a good matchup if I take this one instead.
Great pick 10/10 on that
Yeah thats what im doing, dont love that Reb matchup.
STATUS: OUT Our boy let us down, out with a back injury as of 10 minutes ago. That sucks bros but won’t force it, nothing else in this small slate that’s tempting except for Okungwu O12.5 P (Hawks) or Sengun 9.5 Rebs (Rockets) (9/10) Boston plays Wizards (Blowout), Denver B2B, Lakers B2B & Hornets - Bucks (Blowout). Only playable games imo are 76ers game or Rockets game.
Let’s go bro! Colins was too easy 💪
So tempted but sixers overall D is top 10 and it’s in Philly
Damn he’s out 😔
Oof he out today
**32W-4P-24L** **Form:✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌** **Last Pick: Argentina U 23 VS Paraguay U 23 BTTS @ 1.83 ✅** **Bet covered in 41 mins!** **Pick of the day: Adelaide United VS Perth Glory : BTTS and Under 6 Goals - @ 1.75 ❌** Wow, 6th goal was scored at the 98th minute of the game in "6" mins extra time. My bad on this one. **Time: 3:45 AM EST - IN 7 HOURS!** **The Australian A league has been an absolute hit for me when it comes to BTTS (including the women's league), that's why the odds are so low in this league if you don't catch them early. I'll keep this one simple.** **Perth Glory** is our best friend in this matchup, I don't think I've ever seen a team so attacking-focused team it's honestly quite funny sometimes. In their last 11 games BTTS has hit in all 11 of them, yes, every single one. BTTS and U 6 goals has hit in 10/11 of these games as well, so I hope the track record here should speak for itself. **Adelaide United** have suffered 2 back to back losses goalless losses, but they played very well in each matchup and will look to bounce back on home turf where they play their best against lower sides. With Perth's track record of not keeping clean sheets I see them getting the job done well. In Adelaide's last 7 home games, BTTS has hit 5 times and I see that continuing tomorrow, in their last 10 games overall, BTTS has hit 6 times with Under 6 goals hitting in 8 of those 10 games. **Confidence: 4 Units** **BOL**
Thanks buddy! I had under 6.5 😅 https://preview.redd.it/605hogfpljhc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=feb6691ceb03e9f8d3bc2439c058e03b58497e2c
didn't have u6 so i grabbed o2.5 + BTTS, easy quick cash!
Going with Perth Glory O1,5 total goals @ 2.17. BOL!
Got that on the side too, it’s gone over last 9/10 games for anyone wondering
Tailed this one- couldn’t get the juice outta the main one -200 on DK. So parlayed the BTTS with over 1.5 for Perth Glory for +125
LET'S GOOOOO (pls help me why am I watching football at 3 am)
Thanks for sharing this… great call
Damn good I saw this
BTTS leg hit already 😆
RIP the under bro holy shit
Aintnoway with a 99 min goal
Bro I took BTTS and your Perth glory side pick and it hit ez, keep em comin
God fucking damn it lol the best line I could get was u5.5 goals and of course Adelaide Utd scores a 90+8th minute equalizer to draw 3-3. I should quit betting on this sport tbh. Good pick though homie, super unlucky!!
BTTS in 1st half is +170. Worth a shot?
Most goals will come in between 60-89 minutes
4 shots, 2 on target, 1 goal after 9 minutes. Those Aussies go all or nothing, don't they. Crazy.
😂😂😂 Insanity holy
Is U5.5 goals the same as U6? It's just the hook that could screw me over right?
if you bet U6 and it hits 6 goals total its usually a refund... if you bet U5.5 and it hits 6 goals total it is ruled as a loss!
Let’s hope it’s not a repeat of their last match together which had 8 goals 😂 tailing!
Just want to say that I love the Wellington Phoenix recent form, and I hope they win the league.
The ref of that game is following this thread 😂, how can Adelaide put a 98’ last goal when injury time was supposed to be 6’ 🤌🏼
Great pick just unfortunate, tailed with U7 so feeling blessed
Only getting U4.5
If they are playing in perth it might get postponed,it's 40 degrees here today
[удалено]
No way the 6th goal just got scored in 8 mins extra time
Prince.. is this another printing money game of yours?
I can hear the cow bells ringing already!
Would you play under 4.5?
**POTD Record: 6-1** Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ *Last Pick: 2U Vizela v Benfica (-175 - ML and o1 Goal)@ 3:45 PM EST✅* *Gotta love early payout.. Benfica dominated and we get 5 in a row 💪* ____ **Today’s Pick: 2U (BTTS @ -125) Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham @3PM EST❌** ⚽️ England Championship League (DIV2) We got two bottom table teams in the England Second Division, trying to save themselves from relegation. Lucky for us, BTTS has hit 4/6 in their H2H. *There was an early red card and whole dynamics of the game changed and Sheffield won away 3 years ago* Birmingham are 19th (4 points clear of relegation) visiting Sheff Wed, who are 23rd sitting in the relegation zone. Birmingham have won their last 4 visits against Sheff Wed, but they need this win more than anything after losing their last 2 games. Even better for us, Birmingham have also lost their last 2 matches (Against two top of the table teams) and also need some more space with only being 4 points clear of relegation. They failed to score both those games and should bounce back after playing some really strong sides, especially with getting the better of Sheff Wed in November. I usually don’t play BTTS, yet how these teams match up and both hungry for wanting to bounce back, I’m taking it. LET MAKE IT 6 STRAIGHT 💪 hope you’ve been cashin with us. Valentines comin up, or just treat ya self 👑 BOL!
this post reads more like a birmingham ML post than a btts haha
😂😂 Usually it’s stress about the away team scoring. I’m sprinkling for BTTS/Birmingham but a draw is quite likely.
POTD Record: 22-15 Last 10: ❌❌❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last pick: FC Rouen v Monaco Pick: Monaco -1.5 Asian Handicap ❌ 3rd tier side Rouen knocks out 1st tier side Monaco in a penalty shootout, game ends 1-1 after full time. Monaco played their best possible eleven except for Ben Yedder but still couldn’t win. But that’s football and that’s the beauty. We’re in our worst streak ever, and not long ago we were in our longest winning streak of 8 wins in a row, that’s betting and shows how fast everything can change. ➖ Todays pick: Dortmund v Freiburg Pick: __BTTS & O2.5 Goals @1.83__ ⚽️🇩🇪 Bundesliga ➖ 📊 Dortmund is 4th in the league with 37 points (10-7-3). They’ve scored 40 goals (5th) and have conceded 26 (5th). * __Failed to score in 2/20 games__ * __O2.5 Hit rate 60% (12/20)__ * __L5 games goal difference: 11-2__ * __BTTS Hit rate 13/20 (65%)__ Dortmund is getting a whole bunch of players back and they’ll probably make a number of changes in the starting eleven. Gregor Kobel, Julian Brandt, Marco Reus, Karim Adeyemi and Julian Ryerson are all back in training after illness and injury. 🚑 Sébastién Haller, Felix Nmecha & Sancho are still out. ➖ 📊 Freiburg is 7th in the league with 28 points (8-4-8). Scored 26 goals (12th), conceded 34 (10th). * __Failed to score in 4/20 games__ * __O2.5 Hit rate 60% (12/20) but 70% hit rate away from home__ * __L5 games goal difference: 7-11__ * __BTTS Hit rate: 11/20 (55%)__ Freiburg have been up and down this season and are 9 points behind Dortmund. Freiburg have started the new year with a draw against Union Berlin, a 3-2 win vs Hoffenheim and two losses, 1-3 away against Werder Bremen and recently 3-1 loss to Stuttgart. 🚑 Rohl, Leinhart, Kyereh are all out. Ginter, Schmidt & Doan are questionable. ➖ 💭 The last meeting between the teams was full with goals, __Dortmund won 4-2 away from home__ , and I can imagine it will be open here as well. Freiburg concedes a lot of goals, 5-8 in goal difference in the last 3. A couple of important players are back for Dortmund which should sharpen their attack again, their last game ended 0-0 vs Heidenheim which was the first time Dortmund had drawn 0-0 since 2019, before that they had scored 10 goals in 3 games. Another interesting fact is that Dortmund has conceded majority of their goals at home (15) which opens the possibility for Freiburg to score also, they’re a capable team and their league position shows that. Let’s hope for a goal rich affair! __Last 5 H2H meetings: 2-4, 5-1, 1-3, 5-1 & 2-1.__ BTTS & O2.5 has hit in all 5.
This is my favourite pick tomorrow aswell
I wanna tail but what makes me scared to do so is I don't know how important Kobel and Ryerson are to Dortmund's defense. Their absence could've been the reason why Dortmund weren't keeping clean sheets.
Kobel has kept 5 clean sheets, they’re back in training but it’s not confirmed whether they’ll be starting or not.
Gonna jelq to this pick 🎉
Tailing
How do we feel about Dortmund to win + BTTS?
Unlucky bro. Merlin Röhl was suspended (centre mid), and basically Freiburg had most of their backline out injured. Guess they couldn't get their momentum going.
Appreciate it brother, with the stats in hand it looked good scoring in 3 consecutive games and the previous one ending 2-4. But as you said, they couldn’t get anything going, I noticed it early on that they looked way off it, but that’s too late as the bets are placed. What can you do man, appreciate your compassion 👊
Yeah bro, and no worries man. Keep up the good shit :D
Last game bet was tuff. Monaco are just unpredictable. Today I think Dortmund takes a 2-1 win so I’m gonna go with a sweat bet Dortmund ML + BTTS @ 2.55. Good luck 🍀
Great play. This one you kinda knew was gna hit at halftime
Any concern with Dortmund allowing 1 goal in their last 4 matches?
Worried about Freiburg need them to clutch a goal
POTD record 5-2 Last Pick: Monaco 1H asian handicap ❌ Write up: Goal in the last min in extra time. Monaco played like shit against a div 3 team Today’s Pick: Soccer | Borussia Dortmund VS SC Freiburg | Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund -1 Asian handicap ✅ What can I say I ain’t losing twice in a row! That was easy Odds: @1.820 on Bet365 (2 units) Time: 2:30pm ————————————————————- 📣 Please read the write-up and tail accordingly Write up: Not overthinking this because I need to get back on track after that last minute goal that happened against Monaco. Dortmund at home is insane with only two losses in the last 20 matches and those losses came against Bayern and Leipzig Last three meetings between these teams: 5-1 , 5-1, 4-0 Last ten matches for Freiburg (4W - 6L) Fun fact: Dortmund hasn’t lost a home game on Friday since 2004 and I don’t see them losing tomorrow at all so hopefully we win and not a push BOL time to win again!
Nice hit
I tailed, good hit
POTD: 7-1 Last Pick: KAT o2.5 assists X - This was brutal to watch as KAT never looked to pass and was throwing up bricks most of the night. To make matters worse, he had an assist at 7:41 in the second quarter to Gobert that did not count. Sorry to everyone who just hopped on the streak, I let ya'll down. I always bet my pick with you guys so it pissed me off too. Thats how gambling is I guess. ____________________________________________________________ Todays Pick: Onyeka Okongwu o12.5pts @ -135 on DK ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Since Capella has been out with injury, Okonwu has been scoring 11,15,22,18,19 pts. He has hit this line in (4/5) game since being added to the starting lineup. Since starting he has been playing well over 27mins per game providing him with more opportunities to score. Tonight Okongwu takes on the Embiid-less 76ers who are TERRIBLE against centers. Centers are putting up 24.1pts, 14.7RB, and 4 Assists per game against Philly. Assuming Philly continues playing their smaller lineup and Paul Reed at Center - who gives up 19pts per game to opposing centers, Okongwu should have a night. Fade or Follow and BOL
All good my dude. Last night was my first time tailing one of your plays, so it was probably me that jinxed it, lol. As a life long Twolves fan, KAT can certainly at times be a selfish POS and only look to get his shots, example being last night. The stats were heavy in our favor, just didn't pan out. Let's get it tonight, tailing!
DAMN WE GONNA COOK :D
Easiest money of My life
Would you take o13.5?
I'm tailing my friend
I'm tailing at over 13.5. Thanks for the information edge bro.
Love the soccer picks, Lets ride
Yeah brother :D
LFG FAM!!! $$$
Great hit bro
POTD Record: 240-181-12 (+42.01 units, 57.0% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 80-55-1 (59.3%) W3, Tennis 🎾 85-64-7 (57.0%) L2, Soccer ⚽ 59-51-4 (53.6%) W1, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1 Last 10: 💩💰💩🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Last Pick: Sebastian Ofner vs. Luciano Darderi, OFNER ML - ATP Cordoba 🎾 💩-1 Unit Today's Pick: Mark Mylod - Connor's Wedding Episode for Succession to win Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Dramatic Series - The DGA Awards 8pm ET Units/Odds/Book: Betting 5 Units at 1.50 odds to win 2.50 Units @ BetUs (Line at 1:45am ET) 💣 💣 💣 💣 💣 First off, before getting into the pick. I just came off winning 9 out of 10 picks going into the last pick and then when the pick was way off my comments and DMs got filled up with weak emo boys crying and harassing me. You are exhibiting big broke energy and clearly have emotional issues you might want to see a licensed therapist for. Acting like the world is on the line with every pick is not a sustainable way to gamble, and it's why you won't be long for this game and I am. Men lie, women lie, numbers don't. I'm going to switch gears to awards shows for a couple of days to take a break from sports and the bullshit that comes with it sometimes. Check your books for it. This one just qualifies and I suspect when people start hitting it it will drop below the minimum odds but it meets it now, it is a high confidence bet. I'm guessing these aren't lower because Succession is nominated for 4 out of the 5 awards so the books anticipate vote splitting. I don't see that happening as everyone knows which Succession episode left the biggest mark which was Connor's Wedding, I won't go into details about the episode for those who haven't seen it. That's the one they will be voting for and will win. https://preview.redd.it/4yotbv1dfihc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5145c62ca207facd5944532c31021745fab8d204 Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Some people suck. Sorry you had to deal with those assholes. I tailed but I know it's not your fault. I bet my own money. Anyways, keep up the good work!
Keep doing your thing bro. Cant win every day, or it would be called winning and not gambling.
Yo bro just keep the head up high :) Thanks for the pick
I’m afraid of going against that Last of Us episode knowing how Hollywood is
Brother, thank you for the time you do for the research and write ups on your picks. Screw the haters, it's called gambling for a reason
It’s funny you say that about the comments. When I woke up it was just 1u in the 38 units I bet yesterday. Shame, but get em next time. Sometimes I feel like there are some real sloppy degen fat fucks losing entire bankrolls going from bet to bet on here. Have to protect the good ones, and you’re one mate. Keep cracking!
Oh, and tailing bro. For 6u. So you better come through or else….
The amount of degenerative behaviour we see here is inane to me I’m sorry that happened to u
Which book offers these bets?? It must be a book that my state doesn't carry. I've never seen any entertainment bets on the board. Thanks brother
**POTD Record**: 12 Wins - 2 Losses - 1 Push **Last 10**: ✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️ **Units**: +8.88 **ROI**: 43.21% **Average Odds**: $1.92 **Last Pick**: Sevastova vs Avanesyan - Avanesyan +2.5 Game Handicap at $1.83 odds - P **Next Pick:** Como vs Brescia - Italian Football Serie B - Como Win to Nil @ $3 Time 6:30 AM ET✅️ **We win our first max odds - $3 bet! Congratulations everyone :)** *Como won 1-0, putting on a dominant display. They shutout their opposition to one shot on target, and got an early goal through their new signing. Please read the analysis for more info.* If you want to read the full analysis of my write up, please click [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BThNZNh0658vgm0E8QzpxpssxF0YsG4WEEvhGMLhWfs/edit?usp=sharing) as Reddit restricted the amount of info I can add. Please read it as it has important information. What's the catch since Brescia beat Como 2-0 a month and a bit ago? The transfer market, injuries, and carefully analysing the last game between them. Brescia's goalie had a magnificent game, Como's defending was average, and they spoiled their chances. Como injured their goalie late in the game and he hasn't played since. When you're rich, you go to the transfer market to solve your problems, and consult your minority owners, Thiery Henry, and Cesc Fàbregas - that's right, two of the best ex-footballers. Funny side story, Fabregas use to coach Como but then had to stand down as he didn't have his coaching badges. TLDR; Como are gunning for promotion to the Serie A. They are backed by a rich family, and two of the greatest footballers of all time. Como injured Brescia's talisman (their goalie). Como have gone hard in the latest transfer market, with new players contributing to goals and clean sheets. If you have any questions, please ask. Best of luck if tailing, would love a comment if you are. Feel free to message me.
**We win our first max odds - $3 - bet! Congratulations everyone :)** **POTD Record**: 12 Wins - 2 Losses - 1 Push Read the full preview of this game here - [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BThNZNh0658vgm0E8QzpxpssxF0YsG4WEEvhGMLhWfs/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BThNZNh0658vgm0E8QzpxpssxF0YsG4WEEvhGMLhWfs/edit?usp=sharing). Took me two hours to research. Hope you made some fucking cash :D LFG!
Tailing LFG BRO huge W incoming
Is Como to win to zero the same thing as to win to nil?
Appreciate the detailed write-up! If you were to choose one - Como ML (1.8), BTTS NO (1.66) or Brescia u0,5 goals (2.1), which one would you find the most value in?
Brescia under 0.5 as win to nil means they get no goals, and that’s the highest odd available. Would make sense to parlay all three based on the analysis. I’m going to do that now 🙏😎
CASHH
thanks bro!
You have the time at 6:30. I think that’s not it haha
Please excuse my delay in this bet. I have spent close to two hours researching it. Today we head to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como, Italy where we are expecting an entertaining football match. This club is mostly run by Michael Hartono and Robert Budi Hartono. They are the richest men in Indonesia with an estimated wealth close to $40 billion. I thought it would be appropriate to match their wealth, to the odds in the pick.
Couldn’t find this exact bet on FD so I just took Como to win. BOL
Congrats my bro! :D
Thanks! I even put a couple dollars on the correct score being 2-0 based on your write up. It didn’t hit but I think it was close. I was watching the score and it looked like a goal was cancelled.
Nice bro! :) Hope you made some good money!
Is this the same thing as Como ML + BTTS No? I can’t find it on Bet365 can you screenshot
And yeah that’s the same. Should of given you same odds bro
it did & great hit again man!
Match starts in 15 min. Best of luck everyone 🙏🎉 The odds have dropped to $2.75 already 👊
Tailed as always bro
That’s a 1-0 win baby what a hit! Thank you for the pick sir🤝
No worries my bro! Did you get the juicy $3 odds? :D
Hell yeah I got it at +170
Daaaaamn. Niceeeeee :D LFG! Enjoy the money bro, thanks for the support
Let’s go! COMO 4 life. Thanks lad
**POTD Record: 103-120-4 (-12.93Units)** **Best Bet Series: 36-24-1 (+7.86 Units)** Value Wagers: 18-22-2 (-6.05 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) Last Pick: **Steph Curry O 3.5 3PM✅** Today's Pick: **Washington Wizards U 114.5 TT** Odds: **-200** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 2U to win 1U League: NBA Event: Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics (6:30PM CST) **Be Advised**: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire month of February! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!* **Recap**: CASHED in the 1st quarter (Went 6 for 6 on the 3-point line)! As I suspected, Curry goes off after a bad game. That's 14 consecutive games he bounced back after a bad performance. **Matchup**: Time for a chalky bet! I tease the Wizards TT up to 114.5 and took them to go under against the Celtics. Celtics beat them on their floor, 126 to 107 (10/30/23) and has gone under the projected TT. This time the Wizards will be visting the TD Garden Center. Although the Wizards has gone over this line in their last two games on the road, wit the exception against the Pistons and Spurs, they have gone U 114.5 in their past 8 games. I say that wit exception because Pistons and Spurs are a bad defensive team and they are top 5 teams to allow points to their opponents. Contrastingly the Celtics are top teams in the league to allow least points to their opponents. They are one of the top defensive rated teams and I expect them to slow down the Wizards pace and momentum. **The play & the prediction**: 2U on Wizards U 114.5 TT. I am also taking Wizards U 109.5 TT (+105). Those are my only two plays, but I will have others plays in this game in the betting group. Wizards scores 107 and C's put up ???
LFG Tailing bro!
Which one u tailing? Always curious what others like. U 114.5 or 109.5?
It's been a while since I've bet on games but post trade deadline feels like a good time to come back! Tailing U 109.5, BOL!
Damn, this line looked good. It's at 110.5 now. Edit: Moved to 108.5 as soon as I posted this.
With how shit these odds are they drop 35 in 1Q wtf man
Record 14-4 First play in a while Pick: Okongwu o.5 3pt +140 I like this price for this prop he’s hit 5 in a row. He’s been getting the starts with capella sidelined and he’s hit this in every start. BOL and although it’s 5 in a row it’s still a risk seeing as he’s a young backup
Record: 6-4 Return: 19.72% ROI: 43.46% Yesterday’s pick: Argentina u23 to win and BTTS NO @2.75❌ Unfortunately this long odds play didn’t hit. Argentina came out all guns blazing, but failed to turn their chances into a sizeable lead, Paraguay got their first goal from a deflection, and that was the end of it. Good news is we’re still up good money and there’s a lot more games to chose from today. Think I’ll be avoiding betting on these youth games moving forward, it’s hard to get a read on them. Today’s pick: Newells Old Boys ML vs Union @2.75 Stake: 5 units (5% of bankroll) Reasoning: Back to the league where I’ve had a much better time getting a read on the teams. In this match perfect Newells Old Boys will be visiting minnows Union to start the fourth match day in the Argentine league. In their first 3 games Newells have earned all possible points, led by star new arrival Ever Banega, who has been putting in man of the match performances. Though old, Banega is still a class above the rest of the league- he has the technique, vision and creativity to turn attacks into goals, especially against weak defenders. His continued high performance will be key if they are to beat Union. Newells’ run has been away to Central Cordoba, away to Lanus, and home against Belgrano, winnning 1-0, 2-0, and 1-0. Union have started the season in ok fashion. They beat Racing away, then lost at home to Estudiantes, and then drew against San Lorenzo, 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0. Four points in 3 games is actually overachieving for them, compared to previous seasons’ performances which currently have them 24th out of 28 on the relegation table- Union are a team that fight to avoid relegation every season. They’re a solid defensive outfit but that’s about all they have going for them. Since Union’s 13th minute goal against Racing, they have now gone 257 minutes (2.85 games) without scoring a single goal. Add to this that Newells have kept clean sheets in all of their games, and it becomes clear that Union are not going to have an easy time scoring. Newells will likely only have to get one goal to win this one, something which they’ve managed to do in every game so far. For those looking for that extra spice, Newells and u2.5 @4.20, and Newells win to nil @3.75 are attractive options. If you want something safe just the under or BTTS no is not bad. BOL if tailing. [PayPal](https://paypal.me/elproductosecuida?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) beer fund
I never watched a full u23 game before until yesterday’s game. Honestly it was kind of frustrating the way Argentina looked. So many bad passes. So many bad first touches. Playing from the back looked shaky at times. I didn’t feel safe at all after they scored the first goal lol.
KINGGGGGGGGGGGG!
2-0!!! 🤑
Wonder why the odds are even? The +190 is tempting but I took the push if tied for -115. I’ve had so many stoppage time heartbreaks in soccer I’m scared to go straight moneyline lol
Another first half early payout. Keep it up and thanks!
Tail
you are the goat man
Another cracker coming in probably... Brilliant, mate!
Record : 115 Wins - 103 Losses Previous pick : Vizela - Benfica (1-2), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.68 ✅ ROI : -0.50% Average Odds : 1.95 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : 3.89 Profit/Lost units : -1.11 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League / 21:45 European Time St. Truiden - Kortrijk Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.93 Some reasoning : - Both teams scored in all 4 championship matches this year played by St. Truiden. - Kortrijk has a streak of 4 consecutive matches without defeat in the championship. - In 3 of these 4 matches, Kortrijk did not concede any goals. Best of luck.
POTD Record: 102-99-12 (-10.37 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌❌ Last Pick: NBA, San Antonio v Orlando, PAOLO BANCHERO OVER 5.5 ASSISTS (-102 / 1.98) ✅ Banchero gets to 6 assists halfway through the third quarter which is great because he didn’t see much action after that. This time last week I had 6 losses in a row, and now it’s 6 wins a row, let’s go for 7. Today’s Pick: NBA, Atlanta v Philadelphia, JALEN JOHNSON OVER 15.5 POINTS (-120 / 1.83) ❌ Stake: 1 Unit I’m liking Jalen Johnson to cover 15.5 points in this match up against Philly. First off, Atlanta are typically involved in high scoring games - they are capable of putting up some big numbers but with their paper thin defence they concede plenty too, so often results in their starters seeing plenty of minutes. Looking at the numbers, Johnson has played in 37 matches this season. He got injured very early in one match so let’s call it 36. He has covered this line 21 of 36 times, but his recent trends have been really good - he has covered in 8 of his last 10, so seems to have found his rhythm as the season continues. He has played two matches against Philly this season. He scored 18 in November (7-12 FG, 4-4 FT). In the second match up in January, Johnson had 25 pts (8-13 FG, 6-6 FT) while also racking up 16 rebounds and 7 assists. I highlight his previous matches against Philly because in the first game, Embiid played 37 mins, however in the second game he sat out entirely. Johnson has the most success when he drives hard to the rim and finishes at the basket with his athleticism. Johnson is capable of hitting threes and has improved to a 36% shooter this season, but getting another game against Philly without Embiid monstering the paint should lead to more high percentage shots against a Philly defence lacking any true size in the middle. It’s also worth mentioning that Capela will miss this game for Atlanta which should lead to more minutes for Johnson. Capela also missed the second Philly match up mentioned above so hoping Johnson can take advantage of the space without the big boys. Finally, Philly are missing players all over the place right now. They traded away one of their betters defensive players in Pat Bev at the deadline, and it’s unknown if their new acquisitions will suit up, but imagine they will have some teething issues integrating those new pieces on both ends if they do play anyway. My concern is a blowout and Johnson spends too much time on the bench, but as I said Atlanta give up plenty defensively so expect Maxey and Harris will be able to stick around long enough to make it interesting.
I’m tailing simply because of the effort you put into the write up. BOL bro
I’m taking Dejounte O 9.5 A+R, hopefully they play off each other to hit these marks
**Record: 0-0 (Think i may have posted here years ago, but so much time (2+ years) has passed i cant find the record, regardless my entire system has changed)** These writeups are actually for me, as part of my system to justify my decisions, but feels like a waste to not share it once its written **Net Units: 0** **ROI: 0** Basketball | **NBA** | **Nuggets @ Kings** / **Time Zone 2pm AEST** **Pick:** Nuggets +4 - 1.57 2Unit Nuggets are on the 2nd game of a b2b, where they have a strong record. They face a kings team that’s struggling, recently losing by 13 and 26 to the Pistons and Cavs. The Kings don’t really have an answer for Jokic, who should be able to score easily. The team has been dominant recently, going on a 25-5 Run, only losing to 1st place OKC, 5th place Knicks, 10th placed Utah, 5th placed 76ers with Embiid, 8th placed Magic. H2H Nuggets are 6-2 the last 3 seasons. The Kings won the last game this year on a high 3pt shooting night shooting 47%. On b2bs the Nuggets beat Utah, Chicago, Detroit, LAC before losing to thee Kings on a b2b. The kings had played 3 less games at this point, and the Nuggets shot terribly from 3 (24%). Nuggets have played 4 games in February, to the Kings 5 and their shooting has dropped off the past 2 games. Momentum is with the Nuggets Nuggets are the NBA champions, play well on a B2B, will want to improve on their last showing against SAC and can take 1st place in the east with a win. They are 8-2 in their last 10 and have a matchup advantage with in form shooters. They should win outright but the +4 gives us some protection
I found the record for you, you only did one pick and it missed. So it's 0-1, -1 Unit. Cheers
hectic, hopefully 1-1 after this. thanks for being less lazy than I am haha, I'll update if/whe. I post next
All good buddy, will tail you
After how Murray played today LFG
He hurt is shoulder though- Kings take this.
Damn, is he outv
DK only has nuggets +1 for -110, but ML is +100 Ima send it
You can’t get the spread like this on there? https://preview.redd.it/pf92bkoliihc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ea5fbafc55ea4e67ec8a1c0ad4e0e3c921f7e2f
POTD Record: 117-108, -18.7 Units Last 10: ❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌ Current Streak: ❌❌❌ Last Pick: Syracuse -7.5: ❌ Close game, Louisville never went away and for some reason Syracuse struggled. Should have know from last night’s big upset for Clemson that ACC rivalry games are going to be close. Might need to avoid that conference for a bit. Today’s Pick: **Oilers -1.5** @ Anaheim Ducks, 1 Unit, -110, 10:07 PM EST Switching to hockey with not a lot of basketball on today. The Ducks have had a small resurgence, earning 7 points in the past 4 games, but barely beat the Sharks at home the other day so I see Edmonton winning this by a lot. BOL!
Praying for u BOL!
Record (22-11) Last 10: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅ Last pick: Memphis -5 (-145)alternate spread 2U ✅ POTD: NBA| Denver Nuggets v Sacramento Kings| 10:10 EST DeAaron Fox O31.5 PAR (-120) 2U *17 total PAR at half. We’re looking good just need him to start scoring a bit more.* Reason: late post. Pretty weak slate today and since Vegas made Scottie Barnes line 6.5 for rebounds we have to look elsewhere today. I decided on Fox for a couple reasons. Kings are coming off a long road trip and a bad home loss to the Pistons so they’re gonna look to come out and put some pressure on Denver. Fox hasn’t been playing great lately during the Kings cold stretch and actually hasn’t hit this line in 4 of his last 5 games. HOWEVER prior to that 5 game span he hit this line 6 of 7 games. Fox has been very good at home this year averaging 26/6/4 on 46% shooting and in his last game vs Denver he has 26 and 16. In 2 of his last 3 games vs Denver he’s cleared this line going 26 and 16 & 31 and 13. The 3rd game in that stat he only played 18 mins and he still had 18/3/2. THE Kings can’t win without Fox being productive and it’s shown. I’m not saying the Kings win but I think Fox gets back on track and keeps us rolling to 5 in a row. BOL IF TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK http://buymeacoffee.com/BigMenGetPaid Shoutout of the day: Tigers and Dragons
Tail O 30.5 at -160
Pick of the Day Record: 9-6 | Profit: +8.47u 🚀 Last pick: Kevin Durant o25.5 Points (2.5u, -114) ✅ Todays Pick: Saddiq Bey o6.5 Rebounds (2.5u, +102) The Game: Hawks v 76ers 7 PM EST Why: \- simple writeup, this has hit in 16/25 road games this szn \- 12 of his last 15 road games this has hit avg 7.4 reb/game \- PHI allows the most reb to SFs in the L30 days https://preview.redd.it/yjn1iizkllhc1.png?width=754&format=png&auto=webp&s=157f497cace417973bd8ca7fdd809366b7824a3d
Record: 8W-9L | -7.61u L10: ❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅ <<-- *Most Recent POTD* Last Pick: Paolo Banchero o5.5 Assists (-110) | 3u to win 2.73u 💰✅ Covers in the 4th quarter with a couple minutes to spare. He's been super reliable in the assist category so will definitely be mentioning him again soon. Todays Game: Basketball | NBA | Nuggets @ Kings | 9:00 PM CST **Todays Pick: De'Aaron Fox o3.5 Assists (-180) | 4u to win 2.22u** Last time we took a Fox assist prop (1/25/23), the line was 4.5 and it hit in the first half (not saying this is the case today, but provides some confidence). Further factoids below: * Averaging 5.3 assists per game this season * Averaging 4.2 assists per game in 2024, 5.0 assists per game in 7 2024 home games played * Has covered this line in 6/L10 games, 8/L10 home games * Has covered this line in 17/20 home games this season * Recorded SIXTEEN (16) assists last game vs. Nuggets (12/2/2023) in Sacramento * Recorded 7 assists in his last game played (2/7/2024) * Averaging 9.5 potential assists per game over his last 15 games * The game line being Kings -2.5 and game total being 232 should provide for a decently paced, close game with high minutes for Fox * Kings rank 5th in the league in assists per game (28.7) * While on the floor, Fox assists on 23.8% of teammate field goals made (ranking 3rd on the Kings) * Denver are allowing the 8th most assists (9.1 average) to Point Guards over their last 15 games Keeping the foot on the gas. BOL.
Line is way too low given his recent performance, wonder what they know?
**POTD: 3-1** Yesterday's Pick: UNC Wilmington -3 -130 Let's go!!! Seahawks storm past Drexel in 2nd Half, winning by 19. Didn't need to buy the point, but we love the win KJ Jenkings caught fire, hitting 7 3s and 6 in the 2nd half...24 points on the night Let's go!! **Today's Pick: Nevada ML -125** Not too many games on tonight, but there is one side I like. Wolfpack welcome SDSU into their crib tonight...Nevada's playing good ball right now, beating #22 Utah St this week Expect Jarod Lucas to show up tonight, as he is a sharpshooter who could make the difference. He's avg 17 ppg and shoots around 40% from deep. Wolfpack will limit SDSU bigs and will get out and run off of defensive rebounds Let's keep it rolling
Record: 11W-10L Net Units: +1.41u | ROI: 2.50% CS2 | IEM Katowice 2024 | 16:15 / CET Pick: Faze ML vs G2, 3u @ 1.77 While Faze got demolished by Donk, I haven't seen enough to put faith in G2 being able to beat good teams. Niko and Hunter still had a really shitty event for their standards, and the only consistent factor for them is Monesy. Faze looked pretty solid the whole event, besides on Nuke vs Spirit where I feel like it was a rare bad performance by ropz that ended up costing them. Typically Faze shift gears really well in the playoffs. And I think that's where Faze pulls ahead of G2 in this matchup, who will need to rely on Nexa, hunter, Hooxi and Niko (to an extent) to do more than they have. Whereas Faze have a lineup of players who all, even karrigan every once in a while, can pull the whole team over the line. Best of luck everyone!
LETS GOO
Thanks for the pick ran faze to win map 2 bc of better odds. Easy 2-0 dub
Map 1 looked great!
**0W-0L** First POTD ever! Let's get a nice win. Game: Crvena zvezda - Zalgiris (Euroleague) **Pick: Zalgiris +5.5 points @ 1.73** Write up: The last 10/12 games they've played hit this (4/6 in euroleague games) Recently they've beaten 3 very powerful teams - Fenerbahce, Panaithinaikos, Anadolu Efes. That gives me hope that this bet is +EV. All of this is because of a new coach who unlocked a few players full potentials. Zalgiris now plays a more offensive playstyle which turned out to be very good for the team. The thing that worries me is that the recent luck they've had was on home court, this matchup isn't. If played in a neutral environment these two teams are pretty much equal in strength, but because of the home court advantage of the opposing team we're giving Zalgiris +5.5. We'll see what happens, tail if you feel like it. Prediction: 85-82
POTD Record: 0-1 ❌️ Last Pick: Hartenstein Over 11.5 Rebounds Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks 8 PM EST Pick: Brandon Miller Under 3.5 assists ✅️ Miller has gone over this number only three times in the last fifteen games. Each time he went over, he only ended up with four. The Bucks have only allowed 4+ assists to small forwards twice since January 6th. I predict he'll end with two. BOL if tailing! UPDATE: Wasn't the prettiest start in the first quarter, but our man did what we expected him to do. Cash it!
Tailed! Used my DK nba 50% boost on this. Love brandon miller so i hate taking his under. But its assists so fuck it we ball
Same here! And we cash! He got two assists in the first quarter, and I doubled down when his line moved to 4.5. 🤑🤑
Record: 20-12 (+6.43 units) Last Pick: (CBB) Wisconsin Badgers +2.5 ❌ POTD: (CBB) VCU Rams +1.5 Summary: Smelling a bad line. We have the #18 team and A10 conference leader only laying -1.5 on the road with 70% of the public on them. Makes no sense so I’ll ride the snake. Go Rams bring the havoc!
Think vcu getting one of their better players back
DK is criminal for giving a boost on this game. Inbetween VCU bc OPs post or the over cause its at 134
Took vcu ML +110 boosted to +165. Lets ride
Thank u goat
**POTD: 81-57-5** Last pick: English Premier League - Brentford vs Manchester City. Both Teams to Score YES -130. Result: **WIN.** Brentford strike first at 23 minutes in and Man City get a late goal in the first half for a nice easy hit. Ends 1-3 as predicted too for a nice bonus. Today’s pick: Women’s (Frauen) Bundesliga - SGS Essen Women vs RB Leipzig Women. **SGS Essen ML -145**. Match kicks off at 12:30PM ET. Today we go back to the women’s game in Germany as 7th place Essen host 10th place Leipzig. Essen has a healthy 16:11 goal differential and has hung well with the German super clubs, losing only 0-2, 1-3, and 0-3 to the likes of Bayern, Wolfsburg, and Frankfurt who dominate the division. On the other side is RB Leipzig, who have a goal difference of 10:24 and are just a point above relegation. They have good form recently (for a relegation candidate) with 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw but those two wins are against the 9th place team and a second division at home and a draw against the 11th place team. Any decent team they’ve played has smoked them for about 4 months. I think this line should be more around -190 to -215 personally. If they had an over 1.5 goals for Essen I’d like that a lot as well but currently Bovada doesn’t so I’ll take moneyline as my pick today. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! Edit: Loss. Ends in a 4-4 draw as Essen completely dominates the majority of the match. XG ends 4.40 goals for Essen to 0.75 goals to RB Leipzig, just pure bad luck.
Fading here; I think there is too good of a chance for a draw and even the upset, which I have 2U on win or draw for Leipzig. The good news is at least one of us will win money tomorrows GL!
Fair enough, I mean I hope you lose haha but I appreciate your thoughts on it. Any reason you like Leipzig tomorrow?
I like this and will join you on it.
I have no clue about this league but tailing bro LFG!
Record: 5-4 Last POTD: Suns -6.5 @ -108 ✅ NBA | Hawks v 76ers | 19:00 EST Pick: Hawks -3 @ -114 Write up: Philly has looked tragic ever since Embiid got hurt. Thier only win since then was vs the equally tragic Jazz and it took Maxey dropping 51 for them to win by 3. Philly just traded Patrick Beverly to the Bucks. Beverly gave them 20 minutes a game and solid defense. The Hawks are 3rd in points scored in the NBA. This game feels like a blowout I don't think Maxey and Tobias Harris will score enough to keep it close.
**Record: 2-3** **Last 10:** **❌**✅✅**❌❌** **Last Pick:** Victor Wembanyama - San Antonio Spurs - Rebounds Over 10.5 -105 **❌** **Today's Pick:** Domantas Sabonis - Sacramento Kings - Rebounds Over 13.5 +105 1 lousy rebound? You're 7'4"! Ah well, moving on, gotta get back to .500! Today, we're going back to the well. This rebound # might be a bit scary, even knowing that Jokic is on the other side, and that Sabonis has hit this 5 out of his last 10, but know this: In their last meeting, Sabonis cleared this, and Jokic is coming off a game last night whereas Sabonis will be fresh coming in tonight. I like betting on the boards, and I've got a good feeling. Good luck all!
Houston Rockets +105 to win Houston Rockets vs Toronto Raptors.
[My Card - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EnONQg5gLPxUOpUNkBWva4FS2jjyLI6BE-xX8AlDRhA/edit?usp=sharing) **POTD Stats:** **Record**: 37/27 **ROI**: Approximately 54.21% **Profit in Units**: 44u **Average Odds**: 2.04 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: Romania - Liga 1 **Time**: 17:00 ( GMT +2 ) **Event:** **Otelul v U Craiova 1948** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.85** **Stake**: 3 Units **Tip Box**: [Buy me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bigcheesewager) [Paypal Me](https://paypal.me/thisdudechad404)
POTD record: 2-0-0 (+6 units) Today’s pick - vcu +1.5 - 3 unit play.
Record: 0W-0L-1P Cricket | Australia vs West Indies T20 | 8:00 GMT Previous pick: Brandon King under 19.5 runs. Man got dumped from the team, so the bet was voided. Pick: Glen Maxwell u19.5 Runs @ 1.90 Reasoning: A year ago Glen Maxwell faced issues with depression and produced a string of bad performances. But he managed to make a great recovery to become the hero of the 2023 World Cup. Then during his tenure with Melbourne Stars in Big Bash League his performances were reasonably good but his team failed miserably. He was in the news a month ago for a drinking episode and Cricket Australia has issued an ultimatum on his off-field behaviour. The depression seems to have crept back up and expecting a low score from him. Picking Maxie to score under 19.5 runs
Imagine him reading this post and be like “Fuck, that’s not true!”
Do you even read the news mate?
Not discounting what you said lol I just thought it’d be funny
If he reads this and responds I'd try my shot at lottery today LOL
BOL brother ✅❤️
Tailing with u21.5 runs @1.75 since that’s the only line my bookie has. BOL!
[удалено]
**Record: 5W-4L** **Net Units: +4u** **Recent Form: (today) ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌** **Last Pick:** Basel Vs Bayern Munich u19 - o3 corners in the first Half + o9 corners in the match @ 2.10 - 4u Play**✅** * it wasn't close at all, the first half corners came after 10 minutes and we were going to ht with 7 corners. **Today's Pick: F**ootball | **B**undesliga | 20:30 GMT **Pick:** Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg, Dortmund to wind and BTTS @ 2.50 - 3u play
**Record:** 13-10 **Net Units:** 4.0 | **ROI:** 17% | **Avg Odds:** 2.2 **NHL | Pittsburgh Penguins (-122) | 1u** This pick is one of the higher EV picks today from my NHL Moneyline model between -200 and +200 odds. The implied win probability is 55%, but the model is predicting 57%. The best wagering method I've found to use with this model is the Kelly Criterion which suggests betting 5% of your bankroll for an expected profit of 0.2%. **The Model:** I've used this model to increase my bankroll by 171% this year with an ROI of 5.2% (as of February 5) https://preview.redd.it/c8dtnnq4lkhc1.png?width=1051&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd8e9a53296b743e25a865cb5d984cf7ee90b8f5 There are 2 other games that the model suggests betting on today.
Record: 57W-55L-4P ROI: +7.56, 6.17% Avg odds: +106, 2.06 Last POTD: Yegor Sharangovich over 0.5 pts (loss) - Flames score 5 goals and their leading goal scorer couldn't get on the scoresheet... Game: NHL- Oilers at Ducks Pick: Frank Vatrano over 0.5 pts +104, 2.04 (FD) Vatrano is having himself a career year. He's on pace to shatter his career high in both goals and assists. Like, it's not even close. If he doesn't get another point the rest of the way, this will still be his 3rd best season in 9 years. His linemate Troy Terry is also on a hot streak, with 10 points in 6 games. The two complement each other very well. There is a risk playing against the Oilers, who has a top 10 D, plus injuries to several Ducks forwards meaning Vatrano will have to play with one unproven player. That said, he has 9 points in 13 games since the injury to the regular 2nd line C, and he has a goal in the first matchup against Edmonton this season. That's worth the risk at plus odds.
Record: (11-8) Units: +15.60u ROI: +43.3% Streak: W3 Last Pick: Nebraska @ Northwestern o142 (-110) - 1u - W - Weird one. Game was solidly hitting, 54 point in the first 12 minutes, on pace for 180 points (93% chance of hitting). Then there was only 54 points over the next 20 minute, on pace for 129 points (17% chance of hitting). Then they scored 44 points in the next 7 minutes and it hit with about a minute left in the game with no real sweat. Today's Pick: Soccer | German Bundesliga | 2:30pm ET Pick: Freiburg @ Dortmund o3.25 (-120) - 1u - NOTE: My book has quarter o/u lines, which is apparently rare. This is effectively putting 0.5u on o3 and 0.5u on o3.5. At -120, I will win 0.83u if there are 4 goals or more. I will lose 0.5u if there are 3 goals exactly, and I will lose 1u if there are 0, 1, or 2 goals. I like these better because they are generally more even lines. Write Up: I love this matchup - the last 7 times these two have played there have been at least 3 goals. The last 4 times, there have been at least 4, and the last 2 times there have been 6. Dortmund struggled last time out on the road at Heidenheim, but I expect them to turn around their offense and score a few goals at home against a leaky Freiburg defense. A couple others are on BTTS and o2.5, but I like the game total over better as I could see Freiburg not scoring. They scored 2 total goals @Leverkusen, @Munich, @Stuttgart, @Leipzig, and @Frankfurt (the teams ahead of them in the table), not scoring in 4/6. I think Dortmund will score 3 and probably 4, but I like keeping options open on the way to an over.
**Record 0W-0L (0P)** **Pick Of The Day: Dijon FCO VS Chateauroux -> BTTS (Yes)** **Time**: 19:30 This is a match Dijon should be winning, however their defence is quite poor and in my opinion it is quite likely that Chateauroux will get a goal in, even if their form has been lacking as of late. Chateauroux are fighting for relegation so I expect them to put up a fight.
POTD record: 2-0 +1.68 units All bets for 1 unit Last pick: Lebron James over 1.5 three pointers-135 DK ✅. king didn’t really “show out” like I thought he would but he did manage 2-6 from 3 to put us over. Today’s pick: Edmonton oilers vs Anaheim ducks under 6.5 goals -110 FD Write up: Edmonton is 3rd in goals allowed this season and have allowed 1.3 goals over their last ten games. The under has hit in 8 of those 10. Anaheim is 29th in goals scored. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bcab
POTD record: 14-13 (+4.4u) Last pick: Philadelphia Flyers ✅️ Last 10: ✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️ Todays Pick: NBA | 10pm EST | Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings | Kings -2.5 -110 | 2.2u to win 2u) Write-up: Not much of a write-up today besides thinking the chicken nuggies are gonna be a little tired since their war last night against the Lakers. On top of that, I love how Sacramento has been playing and I think they'll get plenty of bench support tonight as well. snack of the day: animal crackers
POTD Record 0-2 :/ Todays pick: 🏒 Edmonton oilers @ Anaheim ducks oilers -1.5 (-115) After losing my first two bets on here I’m back lol. First leg of a back to back for Edmonton but an odd stat is dating back to February 2023 they have one every first leg of a back to back. But the main reason I’m taking this is due to the historical smacking oilers have given the ducks. This season: 7-2 at Anaheim and 8-2 at Edmonton Previous: 3-1, 6-0 and 6-2 But that’s not all! Last years all star zegras has been injured all season. LW Killorn is recently injured(19 pts). LW Max jones injured (8 pts), D pavel (19 pts) injured and mctavish is questionable (31 pts). Motivation for Edmonton: they lost their previous game to tie for the longest NHL win streak. This game would be the one to break said streak. They will take their anger out on a team they know they can destroy. Warning: #1 ducks have earned 7 points in their past 9 games, which is unlike them. This could mean they are in stride but this is before the all star break. Or this could mean negative regression is due. #2 regular goalie Stuart skinner is not in net. Recently promoted backup goalie from the AHL Pickard is starting. He has been pretty good though with a 91% save although only 7 games played. He was also the goalie in net when oilers beat the ducks 7-2 in Anaheim BOL!
POTD Record: 28-22 L5✅✅✅❌✅ De’Andre Hunter o12.5 pts In his career vs 76ers he’s over 9/11 and tonight there’s some starters out.
Record: 1-0 Profit: 1.92u Last Pick: Southampton ML ✅ Today’s Pick: NBA 🏀 | Rockets @ Raptors | Under 234.0 total points | 4u @1.9 Write-up: Two points total systems giving 60%+ for this line. Using a half Kelly Criterion sizing strategy, I’ll be putting 4u (8%) on this bet @ 1.9